Kentucky Derby Rankings – Week 2
This basically is a week to look ahead at next week’s four graded stakes, a fascinating allowance race, and the much-anticipated return of 2-year-old champion Fierceness. ~ Steve Haskin
Derby Rankings: January 29, 2024 – Week 2
By Steve Haskin
1—Fierceness (Todd Pletcher, City of Light – Nonna Bella, by Stay Thirsty)
Saturday’s Holy Bull Stakes will help define this year’s Derby trail, as the numbers say Fierceness is the closest thing there is to a sure thing, as none of his opponents have come within 19 Beyer points of his BC Juvenile romp. As of now there doesn’t appear to be any local horses who can get him to raise a sweat, especially with the way he has been working and how strong his gallop-outs have been. But if you’re going to take a shot at getting even close to him it most likely will be in his first start of the year. But the race that looks the most interesting with several budding stars is a mile allowance race earlier on the card, which we will discuss later. But you can always hope for a sloppy track, which his not uncommon in South Florida. That is if it was the slop that was the main reason for his 20-length drubbing in the Champagne Stakes at odds of 1-2. But he also broke poorly, lunging at the break, and that certainly had to contribute to it. The bottom line is if we see a performance like we did in the BC Juvenile then it’s time for the others to either leave town or take the Tampa route. We’re curious to see is if he actually improves on his already off-the-charts speed figures or drops back a little and gives himself a more realistic foundation from which to start. After all he’s already run a Thoro-Graph number that wins most Kentucky Derbys, so there is no need to blow this field away or run record times.
2—Locked (Todd Pletcher, Gun Runner – Luna Rosa, by Malibu Moon)
After he worked in company with Fierceness and was unable to keep up with him after passing the wire despite being pushed, Pletcher decided to go a different route and work him with another horse, which he has done often with Fierceness. Going five furlongs again, he sat two lengths back and was moving beautifully throughout, finishing noses apart in 1:00 3/5, and galloped out much stronger, opening up on his workmate, which is more difficult when working on the outside and having to cut that corner. He then had an easier drill, breezing five furlongs in 1:02. After four solid five-furlong works there is no doubt he will be sharp for his 3-year-old debut in the Sam F. Davis Stakes on February 10 at Tampa Bay Downs, where he should be facing several talented and improving colts whose trainers prefer this spot over the Holy Bull Stakes. We know he is versatile, as indicated by his pedigree, which has its share of stamina, mile, and sprint influences from the U.S. and Europe. He’s been consistently fast with Thoro-Graph numbers of 2, 3 ¼, and 3 in his last three starts. We should have a better idea of what his strengths are after the Sam Davis over a track that can be quirky, but has produced several classic winners, including horses who won or finished second in the Kentucky Derby.
3—Sierra Leone (Chad Brown, Gun Runner – Heavenly Love, by Malibu Moon)
He continues to train well at Payson Park, breezing a half in :49 2/5 for his debut in the Risen Star Stakes on February 17. Last week we mentioned the usual concerns about confirmed deep closers. Horses who did come from the back of the pack to win, such as Rich Strike, Orb, Monarchos, Giacomo and Street Sense, did so closing off a blistering pace. He has not established himself as a deep closer, showing good early speed in his debut at six furlongs and then coming from far back in the mud in the 1 1/8-mile Remsen Stakes. He has speed in his female family, with his third dam being by Mining ad his fourth dam being by Clever Trick. You have to like his Thoro-Graph leap from a 9 to 4 ¾, the latter a full point and a quarter faster than the winner Dornoch, and jumping from an 85 Brisnet figure to a 98. It is hoped he has matured a bit over the winter and we’ll see a more professional horse in the Rise Star. What we know for sure is that he possesses an electrifying turn of foot.
4—Timberlake (Brad Cox, Into Mischief – Pin Up, by Lookin At Lucky)
After looking at his impressive speed ratings last week and the other reasons to expect a reversal of form back to the Champagne Stakes, let’s just look at the horse himself, with his flawless action and the powerhouse bottom half of his dam’s pedigree. There is no need to analyze his sire Into Mischief. All you need is to give him enough stamina in his female family to all but assure having a horse who will stay. It is safe to say that Timberlake has more than enough stamina on the bottom, with a Who’s Who of European classic horses. His second dam is by Sadler’s Wells, sire of the great Galileo and more than 300 other stakes winners. His third dam is from one of the most dominant sire lines in the world, starting with her sire Darshaan, winner of the French Derby, continuing with Darshaan’s sire, Shirley Heights, winner of the English and Irish Derby, and Shirley Heights’ sire, the legendary Mill Reef, winner of the English Derby, Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes, Coronation Cup, and Eclipse Stakes. Timberlake’s fourth dam is by Crystal Palace, winner of the French Derby and third in the Arc de Triomphe. His fifth dam is by French 2,000 Guineas winner Zeddaan. We can keep going, but it’s just more classic winners. And let’s not forget that Into Mischief’s pedigree includes European superstars, Ribot, Sea-Bird, and Nijinsky.
5—Honor Marie (Whit Beckman, Honor Code – Dame Marie, by Smart Strike)
Although he has come from eighth and ninth in his three starts, he has shown speed in the morning and it’s obvious Beckman, who is a former assistant to Chad Brown and Todd Pletcher, is starting to crank him up, with a sharp five-furlong drill in a bullet :59 3/5 at Fair Grounds, as he prepares to take the Risen Star – Louisiana Derby route. The only reason he was so far off the pace in his three races is that his jockey, Rafael Bejarano, took him back, but the speed is there and Bejarano will fly in to work him twice and get a better feel for him. After all, the colt is a May 4 foal and has gotten bigger and stronger the past few months. He is by the late-running Honor Code, who, despite being a distance horse, ran his best race in the Met Mile. And Honor Marie, as we noted last week is inbred top and bottom to the speedball filly Crimson Saint, dam of the brilliant Terlingua, and he has a female family dominated by top-class European milers, including Crimson Saint’s son Royal Academy, winner of the Breeders’ Cup Mile. He has already shown us he has that European turn of foot, which is so important in large fields and getting out of potential jams. He has always acted like a turf horse who happens to be talented on the dirt. On the other end of the spectrum, Crimson Saint is by Crimson Satan, whose dam Papila was in the pedigree of eight of the nine horses in last year’s Belmont Stakes. Honor Marie has an excellent Thoro-Graph progression of 11 – 7 – 5 ½, and we see no reason why he shouldn’t continue that forward pattern.
6—Dornoch (Danny Gargan, Good Magic – Puca, by Big Brown)
He finally had his first work since the Remsen Stakes, breezing an easy half in :51 4/5 at Palm Meadows on January 22. Rather than keep reminding everyone that he is a full-brother to last year’s Kentucky Derby Mage we’ll just assume everyone by now knows that distance should not be the slightest concern, especially considering he has already turned certain defeat into victory going 1 1/8 miles in the Remsen Stakes. Like his brother he still is a bit green, but we saw Mage get over that pretty quickly, and this colt has gotten a much earlier start with four starts at 2, three of them at one mile or farther. We’re still not sure if he is a confirmed frontrunner or he just used that strategy after drawing inside posts. We also know he doesn’t mind fighting it out early and doesn’t mind fighting it out late, and he can put you away and win by daylight. His Brisnet speed figures have climbed steadily and are up to a 98. But he does need to improve his Thoro-Graph numbers, having run a 6 in his last two starts.
7—Otello (Chris Clement, Curlin – Isabella Sings, by Eskendereya)
Hats off to Otello’s connections for having enough confidence in this lightly raced colt to throw him in the arena with Fierceness in Saturday’s Holy Bull Stakes when they could have waited a week for the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs. But they had no reservations running him in a stakes in his second career start, so it’s obvious they are willing to take on all challengers, even one whose speed figures tower over Otello’s. And when I say tower, Otello’s 76 Beyer figure in the Mucho Macho Man is 29 points slower than the 105 Fierceness ran in the Juvenile. Otello’s Brisnet figure is a far better 89, but so is Fierceness’s 112. Does a horse coming off a Thoro-Graph number of 6 even belong on the same track as one coming off a negative-1 1/2? Give credit to the Otello team for knowing what a prep is and that there can be more to gain competing against the seemingly invincible champion now and move way up the class ladder. Of course, you don’t want to discourage your horse and do damage to his confidence, but on the other hand if he can be somewhat competitive against Fierceness his speed figures will soar by association and give him a better shot when facing other top-class colts in his remaining preps. He has faced adversity in both his starts and emerged victorious each time, so just maybe he can get close enough to Fierceness to make his presence felt and then move on to bigger and better things. We’ll just have to see how this all plays out and if their move proves to be a wise one. Whatever happens I compliment them in this day of conservative thinking and fear of losing for embracing competition regardless of the opponent.
8—Hall of Fame (Steve Asmussen, Gun Runner – Flag Day, by Giant’s Causeway)
I’m taking a shot and replacing Parchment Party with this colt even though I don’t think he beat much in his maiden romp and was beaten by a 38-1 shot in his career debut. But I believe we have only seen the proverbial tip of the iceberg with him and there is a lot of improvement still to come. Someone very close to him feels he has a “big chance to mature into something special.” As of now, Asmussen has the Risen Star Stakes targeted for dual stakes winner Track Phantom, but he is seriously considering also running Hall of Fame, despite the former having proven himself in top-class company and Hall of Fame still being a work in progress. That tells me how much he thinks of this colt. And as a point of reference it is important to note that in his Lecomte Stakes victory Track Phantom set fractions of :24, :48 1/5 and 1:13, while in his 10 1/4-length maiden score the same day Hall of Fame pressed fractions of :23 1/5, :46 3/5, ad 1:11 2/5, ran a faster final time, and ran a full point faster on Thoro-Graph. In addition, his Thoro-Graph number leaped from a 12 ½ to a 5. He still has to prove his class and was being pushed midway on the turn in is maiden win. But he is still figuring it out and you have to like the way he kept getting stronger the farther he went. As for his debut, he actually was entered with Track Phantom going 1 1/16 miles, but was scratched after drawing post 13. Having no other choice but to sprint him, Asmussen entered him the next day going seven furlongs and he ran into traffic problems throughout and still finished a strong second.
9—Track Phantom (Steve Asmussen, Quality Road – Miss Sunset, by Into Mischief)
I’m still a bit torn with this colt, as he visually has looked strong in his victories in the Gun Runner and Lecomte Stakes, but I have no idea if the once highly regarded Nash, who he’s beaten twice, is a serious horse, and he is the only horse who did any running in the Lecomte. Also, as we mentioned earlier, his stablemate Hall of Fame ran faster in a maiden race and also got a faster Thoro-Graph number, with Track Phantom not yet showing much improvement in his speed ratings. He actually got a slower Thoro-Graph number in the Lecomte than he did in the Gun Runner. On the positive side, he did beat Snead in the Gun Runner and we’re very high on that colt. Asmussen has a number of Derby prospects, and with several going the Oaklawn route, he could very well run Hall of Fame against Track Phantom in the Risen Star Stakes. So although this colt still has a lot of questions to answer despite back-to-back stakes victories, we have to regard him as a serious Derby contender until he tells us otherwise.
10—Snead (Brendan Walsh, Nyquist – Raffle Ticket, by A.P. Indy)
There are so many good horses pointing toward the February 17 Risen Star Stakes we will just have to take them all seriously, even though the Rankings could change dramatically next week after Saturday’s four major stakes in Florida, New York, California, and Arkansas. As for this colt he continues to intrigue me, mainly based on his electrifying turn of foot in an allowance victory two races back, his solid second in the Gun Runner Stakes in his stakes debut in which he displayed another explosive move on the turn, his ability to handle all surfaces, his strong foundation with all five of his races being at a mile or longer, and with an improving Thoro-Graph pattern, from 17 to 16 on grass to 14 in the slop, to 6 and then 5 on fast dirt tracks. Like many of those we’ve seen so far, he is moving in the right direction, but he needs to keep moving forward. I’m a big fan of Brendon Walsh, so he is in good hands and distance should be no concern.
11—Liberal Arts (Robbie Medina, Arrogate, Ismeme, by Tribal Rule)
It’s difficult not to like and admire this colt, who goes out and gives his all regardless of the distance and track condition and runs his race whether he comes from one length off the lead or eight lengths off the lead. His connections are all old school and it’s a small-time family run operation with experience in owning, breeding, training, and sales. He hasn’t run since his victory in the Street Sense Stakes on October 29, but Medina’s plan was to give him four weeks off after that race and bring him back at 3. He will make his first start back in Saturday’s Southwest Stakes and sharpened up for the race with a sizzling half in :47 flat at the Lexington, Ky. Training Center. Medina said he has worked in :47 before, but not like he did last week, coming home his last quarter in :23 2/5. He needs to improve his speed ratings, but both his Thoro-Graph and Brisnet figures have improved every race. And I like that his Thoro-Graph progression has been steady, improving two to three points each time. He just has to keep that pattern going and could get a good setup Saturday with a contentious pace likely. Otello’s co-owner and breeder, Stephen Ferraro, who has been a long-time trainer, and Robbie Medina have both been around for years and are old school and looking for that big break. Ferraro and his son Evan, who is the director of marketing for Fasig-Tipton, sold Liberal Arts’ dam in 2022 and would love for this colt to be her going away present.
12—Conquest Warrior (Shug McGaughey, City of Light – Tea Time, by Pulpit)
His stablemate Change of Command is ahead of him as far as experience goes and that is why he is in the Sam F. Davis Stakes and Conquest Warrior’s schedule is still undecided. It is believed McGaughey will look for a two-turn allowance race in mid-to-late February and then go from there, looking for a major Derby prep with the hope of getting enough points to qualify. If you have confidence in your horse’s ability that is the way to go by letting him take you there rather than the other way around. Don’t forget, Triple Crown winner Justify had zero points going into the Santa Anita Derby and needed a first or second to get in the Derby. As we mentioned last week this a huge horse who stands 17 hands tall and weighs well over 1,300 pounds. He has already shown the professionalism of a horse with far more experience by overcoming all kinds of trouble. He is keeping sharp, working a half in :48 4/5. The only reason I moved him down a few places is because of the wait we have for his next start, which probably won’t tell us much more than we already know. Between now and his final prep is a long time to simply speculate how good he is, and we have a big weekend of stakes coming up that could alter the Rankings. So we will take it week by week as to where he fits.
13—Catching Freedom (Brad Cox, Constitution, Catch My Drift, by Pioneerof the Nile)
The speed figures for the Smarty Jones Stakes came up slow, with his Brisnet figure only an 89 and his Thoro-Graph number a 7 following a pair of 9 ¾, so he still has a great deal of improvement to do in that regard. If you’re looking for a ray of hope it is that he is still a bit green, as evident in the Smarty Jones by his refusal to change leads until the eighth pole, so improvement would be likely once he becomes more professional. You can’t ignore the fact that he has won two of his three starts, had traffic problems in his one defeat, and he has a stakes win to his credit, as slow as it may have been. Starting next week, with four big stakes scheduled, there should be a major upheaval on the Derby trail and the Rankings, and several horses could pass him by. This is when we start to separate the contenders from the pretenders, and speed figures could help in determining who are the ones moving forward. Right now we still have to regard him as a serious contender, but his next start is critical.
14—Real Men Violin (Kenny McPeek, Mendelssohn – Meg Fitz, by Tapit)
He is another of the many top Derby prospects heading to the February 17 Risen Star Stakes, with its enticing mile and a eighth distance and million-dollar purse. What this colt has going for him is his consistency, never finishing out of the money in his six career starts, his improving speed figures, his ability to handle all kinds of surfaces, and finishing a good second to Honor Marie in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. He is inbred top and bottom to Nijinsky and his dam is inbred 3 x 4 to Fappiano. I also like all the Argentine blood in his female family, including Fitzcarraldo, who finished second, third, and fourth in the Argentine Triple Crown. Real Men Violin’s dam Meg Fitz, a daughter of Tapit, who sired four Belmont Stakes winners, is a half-sister to 2009 Kentucky Derby favorite I Want Revenge, the Wood Memorial and Gotham winner who was scratched the morning of the Derby. And let’s not forget that Real Men Violin’s sire Mendelssohn won the UAE Derby by a staggering 18 ½ lengths and placed in the Travers and Jockey Club Gold Cup, and his sire Scat Daddy sired Triple Crown winner Justify. If this colt can keep improving his speed figures, the sky’s the limit with his ability to close from anywhere on the track, off fast or slow paces.
15—Stronghold (Phil D’Amato, Ghostzapper – Spectator, by Jimmy Creed)
This is strictly a fill-in to put some kind of face on the California-based 3-year-olds. Although with D’Amato saying he will not run in Saturday’s Robert B. Lewis Stakes despite working five furlongs in :59 1/5, we can only speculate that either Baffert is running Nysos, who destroyed him in the Bob Hope Stakes, or D’Amato is planning to ship the colt back east, where he ran twice last year and did quite well at Ellis Park and Churchill Downs, breaking his maiden going a mile at the latter, defeating Resilience and Track Phantom. The other possibility is that with the colt’s speed-oriented female family he is not being considered a Derby horse, even though he ran quite well to be narrowly beaten in the Los Alamitos Futurity. Other than that I admit I have no idea what his plans are, as nothing was mentioned in the Santa Anita notes when reporting his work. But when a good horse like Stronghold works in :59 1/5 and passes up an important prep the next week you have to assume something is afoot.
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR
I have been hearing about the poor record of 2-year-old stakes such as the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and Remsen Stakes in the Kentucky Derby. Be aware as we embark on another Derby trail that facts like this are totally useless when assessing the Derby hopefuls. The truth is that every 2-year-old stakes has a poor record in the Derby, as do the four stakes run this weekend, but we still taken seriously right now. We base our early rankings on these races because it is all that is available and chances are we probably haven’t even seen or heard of the Derby winner yet. Derby horses are coming around later and later and racing fewer and fewer times. At the start of the year who ever heard of Mage, Rich Strike, Medina Spirit, Mandaloun, Maximum Security, Country House, Authentic, Justify, Always Dreaming, Orb, and Animal Kingdom? These horses had either run for a claiming tag, were still maidens, or hadn’t even run yet.
Even though we use races like the Juvenile and Remsen, as well as the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, Breeders’ Futurity, and Champagne Stakes as barometers of potential Derby talent, the truth is we haven’t had one Kentucky Jockey Club winner in the past 54 years win the Derby. The last Breeders’ Futurity winner to win the Derby was 41 years ago. The last Champagne winner to win the Derby was 32 years ago. Heck, even most of the final 3-year-old preps can’t produce a winner to come back and capture the Derby. If you combine the last 105 runnings of the Blue Grass Stakes, Wood Memorial, Louisiana Derby, and Arkansas Derby you will find one winner who captured the Derby and that was American Pharoah.
As for this weekend’s four stakes, we have had one winner of the Southwest Stakes win the Derby in 38 years. Two Holy Bull winners have captured the Derby in the 33-year history of the race, and only one (Barbaro) in the past 29 years. Since the Withers was made a Derby prep 21 years ago we have had no winners go on to win the Derby. And the Robert Lewis Stakes has produced two Derby winners in the past 37 years and of those was the DQ’d Medina Spirit.
So where are the Derby winners coming from? Many of them have come from the Florida Derby and Santa Anita Derby and a couple have even come from the synthetic surface at Turfway Park in whatever their big race was called at the time.
All we’re trying to say is let’s just consider each race as an equal and potentially successful Derby prep and each winner or even runner-up as a potential Derby contender or we can simply downplay them because of their history and wait for the unknown latecomers to show up in the next month or so.
Expect some major changes in the Derby Rankings after next weekend’s four big stakes, the Holy Bull Stakes, Robert Lewis Stakes, Southwest Stakes, and Withers Stakes.
We lost our first major contender this past week when our No. 5 ranked horse PARCHMENT PARTY was taken off the Derby trail and will be turned out and given some time off, according to trainer Bill Mott. No further explanation was given. Although Parchment Party has had only two career starts he had shown such professionalism and the ability to overcome adversity he no doubt was far more advanced that most horses with two starts. So he is a horse we were looking forward to following. Another of Bill Mott’s promising 3-year-olds, the exciting maiden winner KNIGHTSBRIDGE, had an easy half-mile breeze in :51 4/5 and has a great deal of catching up to do, especially not having run in three months and not having a serious work since his debut. Mott also has the Into Mischief colt RESILIENCE, who broke his maiden by 4 ¼ lengths at Gulfstream on January 1 with first-time Lasix and could be one to watch if he can get out of his rut, running three straight 7 ½ Thoro-Graph numbers, which he will have to improve.
As for this weekend’s races, in the Holy Bull, it looks as if Fierceness is going to have to duplicate his performance in the Champagne Stakes to get beat. As for the others in addition to Otello, the Chad Brown-trained DOMESTIC PRODUCT is coming off a poor effort in the Remsen in the mud, but did look good breaking his maiden by 4 ½ lengths going 1 1/8 miles at Aqueduct with first time blinkers. He’s been working steadily at Payson Park, gets Tyler Gaffalione, and Brown will remove the blinkers. Joe Orseno might have a runner in HADES, who rallied late to win his debut at Gulfstream going 5 ½ furlongs ad then wired his field going seven furlongs, with his Beyer figure jumping from a 60 to an 84. He drew the rail and should be right up there early. Finally there is SEA STREAK, who ran a gutsy third in the Mucho Macho Man and I have always liked the handicapping angle of second race blinkers on.
In the wide-open Southwest Stakes, we mentioned earlier that Liberal Arts should get a good pace setup with the undefeated CARBONE, the Bob Baffert shipper WYNSTOCK, the fast and game Springboard Mile winner OTTO THE CONQUEROR, and the recent 10 ¾-length wire-to-wire winner MAYCOCKS BAY all having excellent speed, as does one of Kenny McPeek’s entrants MYSTIK DAN. So on paper it doesn’t look like anyone should get an easy lead. Although Carbone has won his two starts by eight and four lengths; Otto the Conqueror is three-for-four and can beat you by daylight or in a photo; and Wynstock is a Grade 2 winner in California, showing a lot of grit, it is the Godolphin colt Maycock’s Bay who is the big head scratcher. He showed good speed in his first two races at Monmouth and Parx, but then turned in two dismal performances without showing any speed. Given Lasix for the first time by trainer Michael Stidham in an off-the-turf allowance race at Fair Grounds, he turned into a monster, wiring his field by almost 11 lengths, with his Beyer figure skyrocketing from a 69 to a 95, which towers over the other speed horses.
In addition to Liberal Arts, others who should benefit from the pace scenario are MAGIC GRANT, who was third in the Springboard Mile, but whose speed figures are extremely slow; and the Kenny McPeek-trained COMMON DEFENSE, a impressive maiden winner going at mile at Oaklawn. Also keep an eye on the maiden LINEBACKER, who has had some troubled trips ad gets blinkers for the first time. AWESOME ROAD was impressive winning his career debut, but has failed badly in his two stakes appearances.
Finally, we can’t really tell yet if the Wayne Lukas-trained JUST STEEL is a legitimate Derby horse or not because of his inconsistency, but he has run two good races in a row for the first time, winning the 6 1/2-furlong Ed Brown Stakes at Churchill Downs and then running second in the Smarty Jones Stakes. But his Thoro-Graph number leaped from a 9 ½ to a 2 ½ in the Ed Brown and then plummeted back to an 8 in the Smarty Jones. The son of Justify had a bullet five-furlong work in 1:01 at Oaklawn this past week.
One horse who is headed for the Sam F. Davis Stakes is the Shug McGaughey-trained CHANGE OF COMMAND, winner of his last two starts and second to Sierra Leone in a maiden race. He tuned up for the race with a half-mile work in a bullet :48 1/5, fastest of 66 works at the distance. If he can use that speed to improve noticeably on his speed figures, especially his pedestrian Thoro-Graph numbers of 12, 12, 12, and 8 he would jump way up in the Rankings. That is the only reason he is not in the Top 15. The Sam Davis can certainly change that. I believe the talent is there, but he still needs a little polishing to put it all together.
In addition to Otello, Chris Clement has the impressive first-out maiden winner ARI’S MAGIC going in a one-mile allowance race at Gulfstream Saturday. The son of Good Magic breezed five furlongs in 1:02 2/5 at Payson Park. Also in this competitive and intriguing field is the impressive maiden winner, MERIT, who romped by 10 lengths first time out at Gulfstream for Saffie Joseph Jr. The son of Mastery breezed five furlongs in 1:02 at Palm Meadows. He is bred to run all day and is one to watch stretching out in distance. One interesting pedigree note to be aware of is that Merit and another impressive maiden winner SPEAK EASY, who won his debut like a good one last Saturday for Todd Pletcher, both have tail-female families that trace to San Igual, who is a full-sister to Triple Crown winner Assault and a full-sister to Equal Venture, the dam of Prove Out. You can’t ask for more stamina than that. Watch out for both these colts. And there is the unknown element with the Canadian invader PIPER’S FACTOR, runner-up in the Grey Stakes and Coronation Futurity, who will be making his first start on dirt and gets blinkers on.
But let’s head back to Todd Pletcher’s barn and look at the workouts of his exciting debut winner BORN NOBLE, who also is in this allowance race. Training at Palm Beach Downs, he worked five furlongs in a nondescript 1:02 followed by easy half-mile breezes in :49 2/5 and :51. Then Pletcher, as he did with Locked the work before, threw him in the lion’s den against Fierceness and they both flew around there in a rapid :59 2/5 for the five furlongs. Running eyeball to eyeball with the champ and going just as easily, he went toe to toe with him to the wire and then matched strides with him past the wire and into the turn. If you’re looking for a reason to believe this colt is legitimate and not a one-race wonder, this work could be an indicator, especially with him running a strong 4 ¼ Thoro-Graph number in his debut. He then came back with a :49 1/5 work by himself, which was two-fifths faster than Fierceness worked the same morning.
A quick mention of Saturday’s seven-furlong Swale Stakes, which has several promising colts dropping back to a sprint off two-turn races, including the Florida-bred stakes winner BENTORNATO, Nashua Stakes third-place finisher BILLAL, Zuma Beach third-place finisher GRAND MO THE FIRST, making his dirt debut, and the potential Derby sleeper RISK IT, who was second in the Iroquois Stakes, then had a nightmare trip trying to settle when fourth in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes and had his problems again settling down early in the Gun Runner. Dropping back to seven furlongs could be the jolt he needs to move forward.
The 1 1/8-mile Withers Stakes Saturday likely will attract the Todd Pletcher pair of KHANATE and SPEED RUNNER, as well as DEPOSITION, EL GRANDE O, trained by Linda Rice, MISSION BEACH, Florida invader SEMINOLE CHIEF, UNCLE HEAVY, and possibly the Brad Cox-trained LIGHTLINE and SOCIETY MAN, trained by Danny Gargan.
As for the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, Bob Baffert worked four of his nominated horses on Saturday and one of his monsters on Sunday, which obviously has no bearing on the Kentucky Derby. But if you are interested, the Saturday workers were Los Alamitos Futurity winner Wynstock, who ships out for the Southwest Stakes, maiden winner Imagination, San Vicente runner-up Pilot Commander, and G1-placed Wine Me Up. On Sunday, Baffert worked his undefeated bullet Nysos, who would have been ranked No. 2 on the Derby Rankings, five furlongs in :59 3/5.
Also, Gary Mandella sent out his Del Mar maiden winner BETTER THAN GOLD, who worked six furlongs in 1:14 2/5 and Doug O’Neill worked ACE OF CLUBS, fifth in the Los Alamitos Futurity, five furlongs in :59 4/5.
P.S. This evening, The Los Angeles Times reported no Bob Baffert horses will be transferred to other trainers for the Kentucky Derby. So moving forward Nysos, Muth, and Maymun will not be incorporated into our rankings as far as the Kentucky Derby goes, even though they could wind up scouring the country and knocking off major Derby contenders, which could actually begin Saturday if Wynstock wins the Southwest Stakes.
Racing historian, author, and award-winning retired journalist for the Daily Racing Form and The Blood-Horse, Steve Haskin was inducted into the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame’s Media Roll of Honor in 2016. Known for his racing knowledge and insightful prose, he has been an exclusive contributor to Secretariat.com since 2020.
Goldencents being a miler does not concern me—Secretariat, Unbridled and Fusiachi Pegasus were by Bold Ruler, Fappiano and Mr Prospector—all milers!….Colonel John is on the dam side, where you want to see stamina influence….
You are right about Fappiano and Mr. Prospector however, I would think that Bold Ruler was more than a miler when you see him winning three 10-furlong Stakes and the Preakness…
When speculating on who is the leading three year old this year it is reflective to think back that at the same time a year ago no one had whispered “Mage” as the future Derby winner, had they?
I hadn’t considered him until he’d crossed the finish line first! That’s typically how my Derby selections go — I figure out every possible winner except the right one. This year my against-the-grain pick is Timberlake. I have an aversion to both the actor/singer AND a southern artist/merchandizer with that name. He’s a shoo-in.
You may be the first to see Steve’s new rankings. Not posted as of Monday evening on the East Coast. Steve is allowed to take his time, in my opinion.
Maybe Steve is trying to figure out if the sectional times for the Holy Bull are correct… LOL
I was trying to get the right time by clocking the video of the Holy Bull to no avail… I suspect the there was some missmarks for the stopwatch… it happened before at GP… the final time could be 2 full seconds faster.
Or ……Maybe Steve is trying to figure out the last 5/16 of Mystic Dan’s time, which was faster than the leader’s times, being that he was not in front at the 5/16 pole….very serious racehorse time!..
I was as guilty as you Ms Blacktype. The Florida Derby gave an impression, to some, that further distance would not be Mage’s friend while in fact it was only a ‘prep’ to advance a more arduous task. Often, a performance in a prep race can be quite deceiving.
Good luck to those who are able to determine every twist and turn in every race.
Gustavo Delgado and Mage’s owners were more louder than a whisper about their Derby hopes in the evening of January 28th… remember that the Trainer had taken maidens to the Derby and optimism was warranted with Mage being so superior (relatively) to his previous Derby entries.
After the Fountain of Youth I was so full of hope that I forced everyone here to take “vacation” in Florida to just see the son of Good Magic run in the Florida Derby…
As you wrote earlier, history can be repeated with Speak Easy or any other wondrous newcomer (not necesarily from January)…
In my mind a leading sophomore pre Triple Crown should be determined after the 100-point races are over… after the grind of the TC things may change dramatically as you have seen the last 6 years.
Right now I got Hall of Fame, Speak Easy, Tuscan Sky, Island Cruiser and Just a Touch in my word novus list.
Yes, Nelson, I remember you were very high on Mage for the Florida Derby but perhaps more patriotic than true conviction but I may have been wrong.
There is nothing better than riding the wave all the way to the shore so let’s hope for a long ride with Speak Easy. Honor Marie is my other main ‘speculation’ after losing Parchment Party.
Davids, I believe at this point today that Nysos is the leading three year old…by far and nobody even close. No question about that, at least from my perspective. But the leading three year old and the leading contender for the Kentucky Derby are two different stories. That said, my opinion and $5 might get you a tall latte at your local Starbucks.
And I make those assumptions with no knock at horses that disappointed Saturday but more of being overwhelmed by Nysos in the Bob Baffert Stakes….oh excuse me….the Robert B. Lewis Stakes.
Speaking of Baffert, Churchill Downs, Carstanjen and the suspension this year…if there is going to be any movement-it might have to go through the folks at Keeneland Race Track as a third party mediator They have a relationship with CD and as welcomed Baffert when he goes there.
Yes, John, without a doubt Nysos looks the best contender and frankly, I expect him to win the Santa Anita Derby in a canter. Even so, I’m not so sure on who he is beating until he faces the other Bob Baffert runners. Maymun, looks more a brilliant miler to me and, hopefully, come Belmont Stakes day, is in the Met Mile rather than the Woody Stephens where Muth would appear unbeatable at this stage.
Saratoga “Belmont Stakes Day” could have fond memories for Bob Baffert.
This year crops appears suspect at best, beside Baffert horse Nysos who is not eligible all other 3yr olds don’t look right.
Fierceness will be a roller-coaster all year his best can dominate or he will clunk it up. Right now I leaning Honor Marie or Catching Freedom obvious there next race will determine if they are 1st Saturday forreal.
Mystik Dan’s win in the Southwest Stakes stamps him as a legitimate Derby contender, IMO.
I am starting to think like you… In principle I thought Mystic Dan would be a good miler like his Sire… but I am now liking his maternal family a lot… I really love seeing Tiznow, Turkoman, Siphon, Pleasant Colony and Conquistador Cielo no less.
Colonel John was a favorite of mine going to the Triple Crown but Big Brown was a freak of nature that year… at least Colonel John was top 5 after winning the Travers after great campaign in the All Weather track of the time in California…
Dan got enough stamina to spare indeed …!
*Damsire Colonel John.
Hey Nelson
Riva Ridge (KD and Belmont winner) is there on the dam side as well. He’s the broodmare sire of Mystik Dan’s 6th dam, Pride’s Crossing.
More stamina in the birth certificate…
Way early to write off Derby. Doesn’t revolve around one trainer.
Probably? Lol
Fellas, the KY Derby is still 3 months away. I like to see a horse moving in the right direction and not necessarily winning or throwing up big numbers yet. I am a Nysos fan partly because I liked his daddy (that was the year we took my dad to the Derby) and because I like his physical form and how it shows on the racetrack. It’s too bad he won’t get the chance to follow his daddy as an undefeated in the Derby. He’s the most impressive horse I’ve seen so far. I was there when Fierceness won the BC Juvenile. It was his day. Did he peak? Can he return to the form he showed that day? I’m not sure. I think there are plenty of horses who could improve between now and the first Saturday in May. I saw Speak Easy win in person. He’s a nice horse. I saw Hall of Fame win at Fairgrounds the week before. He ran a faster time than Track Phantom did later that day although he didn’t beat much. He’s a good-looking horse. Phantom is solid though I don’t see him as a Derby winner. I liked Mystik Dan yesterday and hit a cold DD with him. He was the right horse for that race, but he’s another that I don’t see winning the Derby. This crop, as a whole, needs to improve. Let’s hope that happens and leads to a good race in May.
The following is my guess of tomorrow’s ranking:
Horse Possible Next Race
1. Sierra Leone Risen Star
2. Locked ???
3. Fierceness FoY?
4. Timberlake Rebel
5. Honor Marie Risen Star
6. Dornoch FoY?
7. Mystik Dan Rebel
8. Hall of Fame Risen Star
9. Uncle Heavy Gotham
10. Track Phantom Risen Star
11. Snead Risen Star
12. Conquest Warrior ???
13. Catching Freedom Risen Star
14. Real Men Violin Risen Star
15. Stronghold Sunland Park Derby
I think Steve will give another chance to Fierceness to regain form in the Fountain of Youth or/and the Florida Derby. The son of City of Light will have to face the gritty Dornoch though in the FoY and may many other prospects as no one is scared of the champ anymore.
Mystik Dan (Goldencents) made a big jump in form by impressively winning the Southwest… not sure how to assess huge performances on sloppy tracks but still, it could be that he found his best running style. As Steve said, early rankings are based on whatever result is available.
Not sure where Steve will place Withers winner, Uncle Heavy (Social Inclusion). He displayed a powerful late rush on the slop to defeat favored El Grande O (Take Charge Indy) and Lightline (City of Light).
Confusing to me was that Uncle Heavy had only one published workout since November (4F in 49.58 at Parx on Jan. 27). It was a consummate job by trainer Robert E. Reid, Jr. who took Afleet Again (Afleet Alex) to win the 2010 Withers rebounding from a 24-length last place in the Gotham. Reid Jr. is also the trainer of Champion 2-Year-Old Filly Vequist (Nyquist) and of Poseidon’s Warrior (Speightstown) the winner of the 2011 Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap (G1).
The veteran trainer could very well keep the Pennsylvanian bred on track to gather enough qualifying points through the New York route.
Just Steel (Justify) is another intriguing horse who keeps fighting good fights every time but seems to be less effective at longer distance… but with the Coach training no one knows how the beautiful Just Steel would evolve going through all the Stakes mapped for him.
The Risen Star on February 17th will be a most revealing prep with as many as seven ranked horses nominated.
Meanwhile, the Sam F. Davis without Locked now, seems to be at the reach of Change of Command (Into Mischief) for Shug McGaughey. Pletcher’s Cardinale (Speightstown) is nominated for that prep, but I am not sure he will run there…
Looking forward to the fun of another week discussing Triple Crown prospects .
Hey Nelson
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Mystik Dan at #1.
Yes Bill… That is what Steve is trying to decide right now … LOL
Mystic Dan was the second most impressive horse last Saturday. Fierceness, on the other hand, left a big hole in the rankings and I particularly don’t know what to do with him.
As many have posted, Fierceness will be a roller coaster from now on…
I don’t know if in your long experience handicapping you have horses that showed an “peak and valleys” form… I would hear people saying one good one bad … expecting a good run after a flop…
Things will be more fun for handicappers where ever Fierceness happens to run… it will be like flipping a coin with him …LOL
Those case render Artificial Intelligence completely useless when attempting to forecast horse races… or the lottery for that matter…
Nelson
I would guess that in your eyes, the most impressive performance by a horse this past Saturday, was Nysos, in the Robert B. Lewis. However, this blog is mainly directed towards prospective contenders on the Derby trail, and as you well know, Nysos is not eligible. When I mentioned that Mystik Dan’s performance was the most impressive, I was referring to horses on the Derby trail. 🙂
You are right Bill.
As I have written earlier, I am inclined to cover the Triple Crown prospects. I was asking about Nysos’ breeder but I will be for sure discussing only eligible Derby horses in the following weeks.
There is an atmospheric river and high risk storms forecast for California but yesterday we saw a downpour of quality in the form of a powerful race horse winning the Robert B. Lewis Stakes.
It is just pleasing when everything is lining up in the right path for Nysos to remain a genuine standout. He keeps improving not only his speed ratings but also his ability to relax early and finish strong regardless of the distance.
I feel that Nysos belongs to the same league as previous Baffert superstars (American Pharoah and Justify). However, I also perceive that the HoF Trainer is not as excited with his newest potential star as he was with his previous Triple Crown champions. I might be misreading his body language in the post-race interviews but he seems to be praising all his prospects equally despite Nysos being way above all his peers in terms of speed and potential…
To me it is very easy to fall in love with a horse reminiscing me of the Golden Era of racing. However, I must inherit the prudence displayed by his trainer and avoid overstating the prowess of Nysos going forward. After all, the son of Nyquist has not even run in a Grade 1 race yet. So, I will have to wait to see if he makes the San Felipe Stakes and the Santa Anita Derby to better assert Nysos echelon.
I don’t see many references written about Nysos’s breeder Susie Atkins. Susie and her late husband Clint Atkins were the breeders of the three-time Grade 1 winner Curalina (Curlin) and the owners of turf Grade 1 winner Prince Will I Am (Victory Gallop).
I thought Susie Atkins retired after she put her Casa Farms to sale, but she has now gotten her magnum opus in Nysos.
Nysos’ dam Zetta Z is reported to be added to the Feb. 5th Fasig-Tipton Winter mixed sales …
Is Susie Atkins still in the breeding business? I would appreciate it if any of the distinguished contributors here could please let me know more about this passionate breeder/owner.
Nelson, the Atkins took over Mare Haven Farm around 2004 and named it Casa Farm. The Blood-Horse website usually has a good history of notable farms. Unfortunately, I’m back to work today so have to rush, asap.
Thanks for your reply Davids…
No worries, first things first … don’t let your hobby get in the way of your job …ha ha.
Davids and Nelson, put out some feelers on Susie Atkins. If I get a response will let you know.
Thank Lynda. I appreciate it!
You are welcome
Locked out of the Sam Davis after spikng a fever. He’s fine now but not ready to race this weekend.
Thanks for the update Steve.
Seems to me like Pletcher has not had the best Saturday with his 3-y-old colts performed below expectations.
I hope that Noted, Speed Runner and Fierceness are in good health and are able to rebound in their next races…
*performing
For those who want to know, the Beyers for yesterday’s 3YO stakes were:
105 Nysos, Robert B. Lewis
101 Mystik Dan, Southwest
85 Hades, Holy Bull
84 Uncle Heavy, Withers
81 Frankie’s Empire, Swale
86 Band of Gold, Martha Washington
79 R Harper Rose, Forward Gal
First World War earned an 84, his top Beyer, in the Kitten’s Joy, a grade 3 turf stakes.
Nysos was geared down as well the last 1/16th of a mile. 105 BSF is lights out, if he continues to grow and develop, we just might see a monster in the likes of Justfy/AP/Flightline a big IF though.
With Nysos probably out of the Derby race, I would still keep Fierceness on top at this moment. He got squeezed from both sides yesterday, just like in the Champagne. Yes there are times when the wind is knocked out and they don’t have enough left.
Having said that Todd should see a red flag and do things to make sure Fierceness breaks sharp all the time, as if he does not break sharp in the Derby with a big field, he opens the door for other horses.
105 Beyer for Nysos’ “Justify” like win in the RBL.
If you are looking for something to watch on a rainy, cloudy, chilly Sunday afternoon, I suggest the Nova documentary titled “The First Horse Warriors.
The origins of the first people to ride horses is thought to be Kazakhastan.
Included in the documentary is DNA and archeological evidence to support the theory and how people from this region were able to conquer Western Civilizations.
Fierceness came out of Holly Bull in good shape.
Lynda King– Fierceness is doing well physically. However, he is not the warrior (mentally) that he appeared to be. If a horse cannot take being pushed and bumped at this point, how can he survive in a 20 horse field in the Derby? A horse has to be a warrior to do well in the chaos of the Derby. My top two candidates are: Conquest Warrior and Hades. P.S. I was at the Florida Derby when Mohaymen was defeated by Nyquest. Mohaymen never overcame his loss.
What a great win by Hades in the Holy Bull. I am so happy for Joe Orseno, his trainer and his whole team. He has not had a top horse in 20 years. And he was the trainer of Macho Uno. What is going on in the Holy Bull? Is the spirit of the Holy Bull in charge? Last year a beautiful grey horse named White Abarrio won. And now the trainer for the Bull’s son, Macho Uno has won. Also, two sons of Mucho Macho Man ran well yesterday in his home track. Maybe the Bull is happy that his grandson, Mucho Macho Man, is back with his breeder/owner at Adena Springs in Ontario, Canada.
Mr. Bill Dawson.
Kindly accept my sincere apology for not responding to your reply to my post citing my choice of Domestic Producte to win the Holy Bull.
I must confess that do not think many that support this space read my submissions. So, I rarely check for responses/replies. My submissions just provide another perspective, and these forums provide an outlet for my thoughts which can be controversial.
I realize it’s after the fact, but I do believe you missed a pertinent bit of information regarding Otello and Domestic Product.
You are a speed figure guy.
The Equibase figured assigned to Otello’ for his MMM win was 75.
The Equibase figured assigned to Domestic Product for his 7th place finish in the Remsen was also 75.
If 7th and 1st are assigned the same speed rating. This suggest the 7th place finish was more highly regarded. Further, the final time for the 8F MMM was just a shade fastest than 8F split recorded in the 9F MSW won by Domestic Product.
The two bits of pertinent information above pointed to DP finishing ahead of Otello. And that’s what the results reflect.
I previously cautioned you about Fierceness. However, we never got into an exchange on the colt due to Mr. Nelson’s unprovoked attack and his rather discourteous defense of the lengths of your KD List. But let sleeping dogs lie.
No problem, Counter Point, apology accepted.
Just like Fierceness getting bumped at the start, so did Otello, which could have had a negative impact on both colts. But that’s horse racing. Overall, I thought the Holy Bull was the least impressive of the four prep races that were run this past Saturday. From my perspective, the most impressive colt to run on Saturday was Mystik Dan in the Southwest Stakes. He improved by leaps and bounds over his last two outings, going 8.5 furlongs in 1:43.67, drawing off by 8 open lengths. His Beyer Number of 101, and an Equibase Speed Figure of 110, would certainly stamp him as a legitimate Derby contender moving forward.
Regarding the upcoming Risen Star Stakes, I believe we are both in agreement that Sierra Leone is the horse to beat.
BTW, Mystic Dan ran the last 1/16 of a mile in 5.93 seconds, which means his Late Pace figure should be through the roof.
As an added note, I’m sure you’re well aware that in recent times, top finishers in the Santa Anita Derby and Florida Derby have dominated the Kentucky Derby. However, this year we just might see this year’s Derby winner emerge from the Mid-West, namely Oaklawn Park (Arkansas Derby) or the Fair Grounds (Louisiana Derby).
Good luck Counter Point.
OK! TIME TO UPDATE THE LIST POSTED ON PREVIOUS BLOG:
BCJ longs shot winner and results of their next out starts.
2023 – Fierceness 16/1 – Next start -Holy Bull– finished 3rd
2019 – Storm The Court – 46/1 – Next start -San Vicente – finished 4th
2017 – Good Magic – 12/1 – Next start -FOY – finished 3rd
2014 – Texas Red -14/1 – Next start -San Vicente – finished 2nd
2013 – New Years Day – 11/1 – Retired thereafter
2009 – Vale Of York – 31/1 – Next start – finished 5th
2006 – Street Sense – 16/1 Next start -Tampa Bay Derby – finished 1st
2004 – Wilko 29/1 Next start – H/Futurity 3rd San Vicente – finished 3rd; 3YO debut San Felipe – finished 4th
2003 – Action This Day -27/1 – Next start -Shame – finished 4th
1999 – Anees 31/1 – Next start – San Felipe – finished 3rd
EXTRACT FROM PREVIOUS BLOG:
[Fierceness won the 2023 BCJ at 16/1. The colt will make his 3YO debut in the Holy Bull. Given his impressive BCJ win, the consensus is, he just has to show up to win. However, the historic record regarding next out starts for longshot BCJ winners, should influence a moment of pause. The big question has to be. Can Fierceness defy the unflattering history of next out starts for longshot BCJ winners?
Given the bit of history above, I consider Fierceness a bet against. I know I am crazy. But we must never forget that it’s a horse race and on any given Saturday the biggest favorite can bite the dust, despite its fierceness.]
Well, history was just as unkind to Fierceness as was to 9 of the last 10 long shot winners of the BCJ. Consider the following. Street Sense won the BCJ by 10L. It took a NTR and a nose for my list not to reflect 11 of the last 11 longshot winners of the BCJ who failed to win their next out start.
I remained puzzled as to why just about every KD List has Fierceness ranked at #1, given Todd Pletcher’s KD record and the record of his BCJ winners as it relates to the KD. I do not have Fierceness on my list because I keep receipts on his trainer Todd Pletcher.
In 2022 TP’s Copmmandperformance a grinding runner entered the BCJ whilst still a maiden. He surprisingly displayed never before seen tactical speed to sit 1 1/2L of fractions of 46 & 1:10. He finished a creditable 4th.He wasn’t seen again until 4 month later. The 2nd place finisher in the G1 Champagne and 4th place finisher the G1 BCJ, got blown of the track by 5 1/52L in a MSW. That’s just one of the many receipts I have for Tood Pletcher.
Dr. Maya Angelou said, “When someone shows you who they are, believe them the first time.”
I don’t think you’re puzzled by his no. 1 standing, there are simple reasons anyone can understand. You pretend not to know in order to launch accusations. You assume because a trainer has inconsistent results he must use drugs or additives. Lots of trainers have had one hit wonders and still do. It could be the horse, or the trainer’s attention being spread too thin, or not having a strong enough training program. If a stakes horse has a bad race they usually come back and try again at the same level and if unsuccessful, they drop down or get sold.
I don’t know how these big barn trainers keep track of multiple groups of horses at stables seven hundred plus miles away. It’s easier to have one location and focus on certain types of races. Pletcher does well for having a far flung operation and having serious turf horses.
I agree with you on this point: based on performance, Fierceness is a fast horse, but apparently not a racehorse. Things could change, but at this point he’s a poor bet for a demanding race like the KD.
I’m with you, Todd. If he can’t deliver a good race after being squeezed and bumped, he’s not going to do well in the Derby. Domestic Product, who has modest stats and finished second in the Holy Bull, is the kind of horse you can take to Louisville.
He was 7th in the Remsen, good luck with that.
Counter Point:
I read everyone’s comments here. It’s a big part of the fun, especially since Steve does his thing and mostly lets us riff off of it the entire week. And you make an excellent point about Fierceness’s trouble overcoming adversity and added the stats to back it up.
Hoping Liberal Arts bounces out of the SW in good shape so he can target the Rebel in three weeks. LA already has 19 Derby points and I hope the connections can map out a plan to get him 2 more preps to qualify for the KY Derby. LA will relish the longer distances of 1 1/8 in the 100 point prep that is chosen for him and should thrive at 1 1/4 in the KY Derby if he qualifies. I like the 5 week spacing from the Rebel to the ARK derby to the KY Derby. Really hopeful for LA and glad that I bet him at 46-1 in KDFW2.
Having just seen Mystic Dan’s win for a second time…..WOW ….:30 final 5/16 is a good time for grade one older horses!..
Hello Steve – I was impressed by the big run that Liberal Arts made in the stretch to finish 3rd, just missing second by a neck in the SW. LA has never finished worse than 3rd in 6 career starts. LA has 19 KY Derby points and I hope he can get in 2 more preps to keep getting points to get into the KY Derby because he looks to me to be a horse that will relish 1 1/4.
Steve don’t laugh—–McVay……$1.25 million, big, beautiful colt—could become the top western Derby horse..has natural stamina…..
Thought John came back too soon with McVay, he was sent hard, after a tardy break, and got fourth….big frame…..colt has upside, in good hands—going to be following and wagering on him!..
This was not my favorite day of racing. But one thing I’ve learned from Fierceness is don’t give up too soon. We knew before the race that when he’s good, he’s very good and when he’s bad, he’s terrible. His performance today was not what I’d call terrible, but it wasn’t what you want from a Derby favorite. He did have excuses–getting crowded and shuffled back at the start, being used early, and never managing to be where he wanted to be–and I still think he’s a better horse than the ones that beat him. It may be wishful thinking to hope he comes off this one with a great performance next time, but he has done that before. I was glad I didn’t abandon him after the Champagne, and I’m not ready to abandon him now.
Nysos went by decent talent …and both weren’t done, they finished two/three but Nysos made them look done. …I’m not sold on Nysos getting ten furlongs at the top level but there’s talent there— Fierceness ran too bad to believe, I’m throwing it (the result) out—-his two wins are very good…..McPeek ‘s colt did remind of Mine That Bird ….it’s very early—Fierceness shouldn’t be dropped way down and Mystic Dan is a new player, on the Derby trail…will need to see that one more time cuz he won by a wide margin….eagerly awaiting Honor Marie at Fairgrounds..
I thought the Oaklawn race was the closest to a Derby race (Mine that Bird) and unlike what some said, it wasn’t slow, winner finished fast, final time was respectable. The mud slows most races down, one way or another. Nysos looked like he was too far behind in the back stretch, but passed tiring front runners who set a fast pace, with gusto. I don’t think Bob B’s remarks afterwards indicated he was totally relieved of concerns going forward, seems to be experimenting with his location. But none of that matters if he’s that physically superior, which is yet to be determined. Fierceness stalked a slow pace set by a horse who wasn’t slowing down, wanted to wire it and did. It’s harder to come from behind in that situation. But Fierceness made Forte look pretty good! Winning the juvenile and his KD preps. Still my fave and I wish he could go back to his breeder and romp on that nice acreage instead of living in a stallion compound. Fierceness should run an additional prep to get in shape. He lost the Champagne after a long layoff. Irad may be the right jockey for a just off the pace horse. White Abarrio’s was probably the best dirt win of his career and clean as his horse is white. But none of that matters if Fierceness isn’t that good. Go Dornoch! A town will celebrate if you win, I’ll tell them if they don’t know.
No offense to John Velazquez, who handled Fierceness beautifully in the Juvenile and whom I do not blame for today’s loss, but I hope they do go back to Irad. I was sorry when they parted company last fall, and I’d like to see them back together.
In a bit of a Twilight Zone moment, I Just discovered Holy Bull winner Hades and Robert Lewis third-place finisher Scatify are closely related. Scatify is out of stakes-winning producer Broadway Run, whose second dam, Lady Discreet, is also the second dam of Hades. Lady Discreet is a half to Grade 1 winner DISCREET CAT.
I’m a nerd. I know.
That’s amazing. It was a pretty good day for Lady Discreet and her grand/great grandchildren.
Thanks, Jiffy! It’s certainly unusual.
Thanks for your insight and your knowledge. Hades is a warrior and has talent. I am hoping for his trainer Joe Orseno that he does well.
Was the Robert B Lewis really shortened to 1 mile today? Equibase entries and results chart list it at 1 mile but historically this race has been 1 1/16 miles (at least according to kentuckyderby.com). Thanks for explaining it to this neophyte!
Yes, it was shortened, no idea why.
Thank you
Just a note, I went and checked the history of this race and there was one time this race was run at 7F
The Robert B Lewis really shortened to 1 mile because it taken the place of the G3 Sham Stakes (1 mile) which was removed from the Santa Anita Park racing schedule for 2023-34.
SAPark has tried to have the three 3YO races a different distances. The Robert B Lewis @ 1 mile, the San Felipe @ 1 1/16 miles, the Santa Anita Derby (1 1/8 miles).
Touché!! Ha ha
???
So the points from the RLB, how were they distributed?
Nysos ZERO
Wine me up Zero
Scatify 6
Mc Vay 4 points
Moonlit Sonata 2 points
Thank you Gary.
I don’t envy Steve having to straighten these results out. Of the horses who ran today, I was most impressed by Hades, who looks like a horse with promise, Mystik Dan (although Goldencents! omg!!) and Domestic Product. Will be interesting to see the Beyers in the morning. The ones for the Holy Bull will not flatter Fierceness.
Fierceness got bumped from both sides. I think there is a good chance that he will bounce back, it happened to him before
Nysos proved he’s the best 3yr old in this year’s crop. Unfortunately, he’ll be pointed to the Preakness, and not the Derby.
Now, it’s back to the drawing board moving forward on the Derby trail.
It’s too early Bill…
You’re right Matthew W
The Risen Star, coming up in a couple of weeks, might provide a clearer picture of a Derby prospect on the Derby trail. From my perspective, the winners of today’s Derby prep races certainly didn’t impress me as Derby prospects. The Holy Bull was a real head scratcher, won by a gelding, no less. If I recall, there’s only been 3 or 4 geldings that have won the KD.
As it stands now, I would think that Track Phantom and Sierra Leone are the two top prospects on the Derby trail. Just my opinion.
Bill I’m excited about Honor Marie, who has closed like his sire Honor Code! I think he is “one of the ones”, as they say…..and he loves Churchill —we have seen in recent runnings how “Churchill Horses” can do in the Derby! Fairgrounds has ample stretch for this bulldog!..
So how did Carbone perform?
All races went as predicted, except for the Fierceness race. That was a big disappointment.
Nysos is the real deal as predicted, but unfortunately no Derby for him.
WOW the acceleration he showed, it was like the other horses were standing still.
NySOS got every one sending a SOS message…
“Message in a Bottle” or “S.O.S”?
Save Our Skin …
Touché!! Ha ha
Fierceness was terrrrrrible
I hope Fierceness was not injured after being sandwiched hard at the break … worst of all is that it was one of the slowest Holy Bull Stakes ever…it looked like a public workout.
Every other 3-year-old winning on dirt today at Gulfstream was faster than the Holy Bull competitors… what a bad taste it left on Fierceness fans !
Hopefully just the wind knocked out of him.
He just did not seem to get his rhythm back.
Similar to what happened to Shared Belief in 2014 BCC.
Never lose my head over numbers of any race.
Looked to me like a jockey’s race. Paco put them to sleep. Fierceness had a troubled start and stayed wide and gave 6lbs , headed and eyeballed Hades. Hades came back on him and still had gas in the tank. Still early days.
Not a Pletcher fan for the KD. Gross win percentage performance….
Nysos is the real deal, he will be tough to beat in the Preakness.. I know he did not beat much, but boy that was push button.
Yes, it was. Nysos, Maymun, and Muth all look extremely classy individuals.
I have a total of $250.00 on SPEAK EASY to win the Kentucky Derby at 125-1 in future pools
@CircaSports
and William Hill
Mark, you are a smart man. That horse is near the top of my rankings now that Fierceness went down to defeat.
Thank you Ms Blacktype. I also like Hall of Fame
Also Deterministic
Thank you Ms Blacktype I also like Hall of Fame
Don’t know why my reply is repeated twice
I like Speak Easy as well but you probably don’t want anymore climbing aboard. lol.
You were right, Steve. There will be quite a few changes in your Derby rankings. I had a feeling the Holy Bull wasn’t going to be what was expected. Whatever ever they did as two year olds these days can be discounted when they start as three year olds.
Fierceness and Otello will be demoted for sure… that would leave Locked on top by default and Mystic Dan might be getting there after his successful change of running style (from frontrunner to stalker).
Liberal Art may be giving way to Uncle Heavy.
The Risen Star got more bearing on the top 15 (with 6 ranked horses nominated): Sierra Leone, Honor Marie, Track Phantom, Snead, Catching Freedom and Real Men Violin.
Nysos is the real deal… Flavian Prat will be soon asked to draw comparisons to the inigualable Flightline…
To be honest, Nelson. Nysos was really the only Derby(sic) horse that impressed really. Even so, I’m not sure how good the opposition was in the California prep.
The Risen Star does look the race to settle things at this stage anyway. I was pretty underwhelmed by what we saw today.
I believe Stronghold is going to the Risen Star as well…
it would be interesting to know what is next for Coach Prime.
All the Baffert colts, Nelson.
inigualable…..Thanks for the new word. I always learn something here at the great Steve Haskin Secretariat weekly Derby column! Today I learned the word for Unmatched!
As for the comments on BB and CDI. I wish the whole thing were over, but maybe next year…. in the meantime there is a tone of racing and analysis, and we all get to enjoy the inigualable Steve Haskin!
I don’t think we saw any Derby horses in The Withers….We didn’t see and Derby horses in the Lewis, either…..
Nor the Holy Bull either.
Fierceness going wide like that reminded me of Spectacular Bid in the Blue Grass—-but Fierceness is no Bid—needless to say I think we’ll see Irad back up on Fierceness…..Mystic Dan rode a rail skimming ride—when it rains at Oaklawn the rail is usually the place you want to be, terrific patience, by his rider, McPeek has a Derby horse, and Wayne is a player!..
…and Chasing Freedom rises up the ranks, considerably.
Catching Freedom?
Yes, Catching Freedom. I was doing my wordle at the same time.lol.
Wordle, no problem, but what about Connections?
We will have to wait for the Risen Star Stakes to sort out as many as 6 ranked horses
All in flux, Nelson. ‘ Wishin’ And Hopin’ like the song. Ha ha
I saw Born Noble bobble three times in his losing race at Gulfstream — once on the backstretch and twice in the stretch. We may find out he has some sort of injury tomorrow.
As for the battle of the statebreds (PA v. NY), I was sorry to see El Grande O get nipped. The way the DRF was touting him, I’m surprised Uncle Heavy went off at such long odds.
Congratulations Biggie312 on cashing for the win and exacta!
Ms Blacktype:
Thanks, very much!
Best of luck to you for the rest of the weekend!
Ms Blacktype, you may be right. I’m always concerned when you see that or if they bore out or duck in markedly.
Withers was exciting race: I had winner and exacta but not sure we saw Derby winner! Looking forward to the other prep races today!
Wow, the Withers was a thriller! Mid-stretch, I thought Uncle Heavy was hopelessly beaten, and then he came on.
Coach Prime and Stronghold officially scratched from the Robert B. Lewis Stakes.
Wynstock is still on in the Southwest Stakes…
Oaklawn track is sloppy but producing fast sectional and final times so far. Only one closer has won so far (half card) at Oaklawn
Two sons of Mitole at Oaklawn looked good navigating the slop… Carbone might be the one liking the wet surface best in the Southwest.
I see there is no love for Better Than Gold in the Bob Lewis. Why should this slow son of Nyquist even be considered?
I contend the expected strong pace and the additional 1/2F of the Lewis should play to his strength. I cannot dispute that having been destroyed by Nysos on debut by 15 1/2L. His chances of winning the Lewis with that colt as an entrant appears remote. Being destroyed in a 6F MSW doesn’t mean the same will reoccur 3 months later with an additional 2 1/2F to travel.
Better Than Gold displayed racehorse grit and determination whilst breaking his maiden. At no point on the back stretch did he appear to have a shot at winning. But he kept grinding and eventual got by BB’s 1/5 entrant close home. He closed from 8L off the pace for his victory.
BTG’s The final was modest by SA Park standard, but the internal fractions (22, 46 & 1:10) were about standard for an 8F at the venue. BTG is a very big colt and although he is a January foal, he appears to lack power in his strides. This suggests he needs to get stronger to effectively maneuver his big frame in better company.
He has been working regularly without being flashy. With the usual improvement between starts associated with youngsters, along with his displayed stamina. I think his colt merits consideration for the exotic wagers.
Can he upset? There is always a potential Onion for every free square.
Following the leads of Bill Dawson, Matthew and Ms Blacktype I am posting my favorites for key 3-y-old races tomorrow:
Gulfstream Park 6th: 5-Born Noble, 6-Merit, 4-Ari’s Magic
Swale S: 7-Legalize, 6-Risk It, 4-Grand Mo the First
Holy Bull: 7-Fierceness, 3-Otello, 4-Dancing Groom
The Withers: 3-Ligthline, 1-Speed Runner, 4-El Grande O
Southwest: 5-Wynstock, 6-LIberal Arts, 7-Carbone
Robert B. Lewis: 6-Nysos, 5-Coach Prime, 1-Wine me Up
Good luck and safe trips for everyone!
In the Swale there’s a horse in the Sisterson barn, four maiden starts but vs Nysos, Coach Prime, Urban Legend—all Bob B horses so maybe Colorado Cruiser is in with friends tom….
Hi Nelson
Our picks are very similar, these are my top three in each race, in preferential order.
GP 6th: Merit, Born Noble, Ari’s Magic
Swale: Legalize, Bentornato, Risk It
Holy Bull: Fierceness, Otello, Hades
Withers: Speed Runner, Lightline, El Grande O
Southwest: Otto the Conqueror, Carbone, Liberal Arts (I’ve heard that Wynstock may scratch, if not I’ll use him instead of LA)
Robert B. Lewis: Nysos, Coach Prime, Stronghold
Good luck Nelson
It’s official, Maycock’s Bay has been scratched out of the Southwest (fever).
I concur with several posters here that the Risen Star looks like a much more exciting race (at his point) than any of tomorrow’s features with the exception of the Southwest. I thought it might be fun to try picking the winners of each stakes plus the big allowance at Gulfstream . . . and mostly landed on favorites or near favorites. Let’s hope the actual races are more stimulating than they look on paper! FWIW, here are the horses I chose:
Gulf Race 6 Born Noble
Withers Seminole Chief in mild upset of Lightline
Swale Bentornato
Holy Bull Fierceness
Robert Lewis Nysos
Southwest Awesome Road (although he’s scratched out of the last two races he was entered in — what’s up with that?)
Steve, I did read the rankings, both last week and this week though I did comment specifically on them.
I will agree with the comment made by many that this year’s 3 year old contenders is loaded with talent.
Tidbits
Nelson and Davids, I had the pleasure of watching 4 videos of Kabirkhan this week and I saw a photo of him before the auction.
One was of him just being a horse out grazing in Dubai. He looks fit as a fiddle after running two races in Dubai.
The second one was of him training his arch rival from Kazakhstan who is also racing in Dubai snd placed 2nd behind Kabirkhan in the Islands.
The third one was in his barn in Dubai and getting spoiled by his grooms.
The 4th one was a mixed video of being lead onto the track before the race. He was way up on his ties, prancing and dancing.
I was impressed by how much he is on the muscle, how his coat glows and I was especially impressed by the muscle development in his forelegs and he has good bone.
Not sure why he he brought such a low price at auction. His pedigree and conformation should have been selling points.
The only real fault I saw was that he wings out on the left fore leg like Chrome did. A s best I could see his legs are clean.
In Kazakhstan he is being called a horse that only comes along every 100 years. They, like Japan, take so much pride in their horses.
Supposedly the judge is close to a decision on the lawsuit that was filed by the owners of Laoban. Some information has been released on the findings by the insurance company and is certainly looks bad on WinStar and how Laoban was managed before his unfortunate death.
That’s all folks. Looking forward to next week’s rankings.
Edit: did not comment
Thanks Lynda for the updates.
I am glad you are closely following Kabirkhan in Dubai. As I posted before I have seen many horses coming from parochial tracks improving immensely when they are exposed with the “luxuries” of the premier environments of the top racetracks.
What a satisfaction would be for you if Kabirkhan wins his next big races … you will be the first one spotting such a hidden gem!
Kabirkhan was sold in the last session of Keeneland 2021 September yearling sale which comprised more than 4,000 horses. He was the fourth most expensive California Chrome. The top prices were $20K, $16K, $14K. The average price was $11,000 for the 8 California Chrome progeny sold that day. If you take the median price of $12K that last day you may deem that Kabirkhan’s price was just in line with the highly competitive auction.
I am not familiar with Laoban’s case … I just read that he died suddenly right after receiving “vitamin and mineral supplements” and that the insurer denied payment…
Nelson, Laoban’s cause of death was anaphylactic shock.
He had been having problems gripping the mares in the breeding shed and was in pain from what the necropsy revealed was osteoarthritis in his neck and back.
After a week of unsuccessful attempts to cover mares, a staff vet at WinStar gave Laoban an intravenous shot of a compound called the Black Shot to increase his libido. Laoban went into anaphylactic shock and died within a couple of minutes.
The insurance company refused to pay the claim because anaphylactic shock is not covered in the policy. He was insured for $850,000. It was his owners who still owned a percentage of Laoban who filed the lawsuit against the insurance company.
The insurer’s investigation determined that the Black Shot was compounded on site by the staff vet Wharton. It was a combination of vitamins B12, C, B complex and iron.
The source for the iron was a substance intended for use in anemic piglets and which had expired 10 years ago and was to be injected intramuscular and not intravenously and the label carried a warning that it could cause anaphylactic shock.
Wharton maintained that she met with management earlier that day and was given permission to give the compound, that she had used very successfully in California, to Laoban. WinStar denied giving Wharton approval to give the injection.
Three complaints against Wharton which came from an anonymous source, PETA and Animal Welfare Action were filed with the Kentucky Board of Veternarian Examiners.
Wharton was found guilty of failing to exercise appropriate standard care of the horse and 6 violations of Kentucky law.
Her license was suspended for 90 days, she could not work as a vet tech or assistant and had to agree to continuing education classes at her expense on several pharmacology topics and protocols for managing medical emergencies like anaphylactic shock.
WinStar kept Wharton on staff and paid her salary for the duration of the suspension and according to one report paid a total of $50,000 in fines and legal fees..
The incident first came to light based on reporting by the Louisville Courier-Journal.
Thanks Lynda for the comprehensive post about Laoban’s case.
Seems like a case of negligence… I am sure the details will be relayed again after final judgment.
Thanks for the update on Kabirkhan, Lynda. As for the sales, you would have to have read the vet report on Kabirkhan but California Chrome’s dam side was not strong ‘stakes wise/progeny.’
Did you note that Little Emily, dam of Kabirkhan, was sold in January at Keeneland, 2023 for $1,000 Keeneland January Horses of All Ages to the cover of Omaha Beach. Little Emily would now be worth a great deal more, and, more than likely will be bred to a fashionable sire son of the A. P. Indy line. It’s all show business.
Davids, the vet report may have been a factor, but in the case of Chrome, I think it had more to do with, as you say, Love The Chase and I would add Lucky Pulpit, having insignificant success on the track. Lucky Pulpit did develop a throat infection when he was 3 which compromised his breathing.
Lucky Pulpit was a very good regional sire though. Out of 491 foals, there were 294 winners and 12 stakes winners.
Little Emily slipped the foal by Omaha Beach. Her 2021 foal is by Yoshida and 2022 by Global Campaign and will bred to Luckin At Lucky in 2024.
Thanks Lynda, I use to follow Lucky Pulpit, he was a much better racehorse than his record shows. It’s a shame Little Emily slipped the Omaha Beach foal. Just wait and see from here.
The “Chromies” are as dedicated a fan group as I have known in my many years of following racing.
Not all of Chrome’s progeny have had a soft landing.
Msny ended up in Puerto Rico in some horrible situations.
I have lost count of the number of horses by Chrome they have raised money to buy and bring back to the States and given lifetime homes on several farms.
Most of the “Chromies” are just everyday people of varying ages with moderate incomes and live moderate, everyday lives.
The group went from following Chrome’s racing career to following his get not only in the United States but Chile, now Japan, Russia, Puerto Rico and any other country they were sold to.
When they hear of one in dire straits, they pool their money and somehow manage to get the funds together to get the job done.
They are not supported by any OTTB charity or equine rescue organization.
If Kabirkhan were to win the World Cup, my guess is that you would hear the cheers all the way to Australia. Bringing down the house is putting it mildly. The “Swifties have nothing on the “Chromies”, LOL.
Arturo Mares… exercise rider who turned sixty-five the day after I did on Jan 29….passed away after four days, from falling off his mount…the most dangerous sport….
The fields of the four prep Stakes tomorrow are well covered by Steve’s ranking and KotD section.
I foresee Liberal Arts keeping his stance after a credible run in the Southwest.
Lightline and Speed Runner can be promoted to the top 15 as they look to be the likely top two in the Withers.
The Robert B. Lewis does not seem to have any bearing on the rankings …
The Risen Star on February 17th is a race that will be stirring the rankings further…
The reasoning to include Hall of Fame in the 8th position resonates with me. The angle of being faster than other prospects (Track Phantom winning the Lecomte Stakes) in the same card is a factual one. Not only that, but Hall of Fames’ fractional times over the first 3 quarter miles were faster than those of Saudi Crown in winning the Louisiana Stakes at the same distance of 1 1/6 miles…
The more I watch Hall of Fame win the more I like this gliding runner.
Hall of Fame got the genetic traits to be a top horse in the Classics… This one makes me recall how Steve was able to spot rather early the prospects of Always Dreaming and Country House to be players in the first leg of the Triple Crown…!
Today is Groundhog Day and I wish the groundhog could also predict which 3-year-old will be best by summer. So far, no sophomore has garnered the credentials to depose Fierceness and Nysos as the undisputable leaders of this crop.
We had three prep Stakes in January: the Smarty Jones won by Catching Freedom, the Jerome won by Drum Roll Please and the Lecomte taken wire to wire by Track Phantom.
If you ask me who was the most convincing winner of those prep races, I would choose Catching Freedom. Catching Freedom is half-brother to Bishops Bay who proved his Stakes caliber in the Peter Pan Stakes when 2nd to champion Arcangelo by a head. The Albaugh family got a respectable prospect in the son of Constitution after being very close last year with Angel of Empire…
It was DRY January but there was no drought of exciting new players. Pletcher’s Speak Easy (Constitution) will be followed by every observant fan as a potential superstar after a phenomenal debut at Gulfstream running the fastest 7 furlongs in the last 3 years there.
A son of Justify named Just a Touch looked very strong on debut winning at Fair Ground earning high speed ratings. Brad Cox may have a budding star in his hands with this maternal grandson of the great Tapit. It seem a bit late for these captivating debutants to tackle the Triple Crown series but we better let the horses speak and write history instead of deeming history to be unbendable.
Talking about writing history, Fierceness and Nysos, the fastest colts of this crop so far, are making their championship bids tomorrow in the Holy Bull and the Robert B. Lewis Stakes respectively.
They have been so prominent that everyone is expecting easy wins against unexceptional fields … the talk of the town next week will be about who looked better and which new player is bound to make big jumps next time.
Nelson, I’m not so sure I agree with your assumptions above. Maymun’s debut looked quite dazzling to me and Speak Easy’s debut was impressive. Let’s wait until they’ve all run once this year at least before crowning who is ‘leader of the pack.’
Mind you, you’re entitled to your opinion and you may be well be right. Over the years I’ve become too circumspect or, perhaps, too disappointed later on to advance at this time of the year the anointed ‘Imperius Rex.’
I always enjoy reading your posts, your efforts are no doubt gladly received by everyone.
Yes Davids… I just forgot about Maymun’s … I had three newcomers in mind but somehow left the son of Frosted out of the honor roll… Indian Charlie has become a powerful broodmare sire indeed.
I usually wait for at least 3 starts to better judge the future of a brilliant race horse…
Not sure what you see as my assumptions… it is about Fierceness and Nysos being the leaders at this stage? Looks to me like Fierceness and Nysos are not allowed to lose tomorrow … we have heard in the past that chief sophomores “don’t have to win but just run well” while debuting to still keep their stance… as preps are suppossed to be stepping stones to peak at the right time.
A tangential point in my post is that sometimes we put too much weight on stats and history but every horse is a distinctive player who has the chance (an the right if you will) to defy the past. If the champion prevails by summer time or a new face ends up being the numero uno is the conundrum I am trying to figure out … it is early but spotting them early is the fun part of all this business of weekly rankings… I guess.
It’s my fault, Nelson. I miss read your article re: assumptions. They were my assumptions on initially misreading your post. lol. Even so, I’m glad we agree on Maymun. I’d been listening to numerous ‘experts’ on YouTube proselytizing the invincibility of Fierceness and Nysos as if the race had been run. Nothing is more boring than hearing ‘the race is a walkover’ or ‘why bother running the race’ – the list of retired undefeated champions in horse racing is not large.
Nelson, our groundhog here in Georgia, General Beauregard Lee, did not see his shadow so no more 6bweeks of winter was his prediction.
Same here in Alberta my dear Lynda… 6 more weeks of winter… however this winter has been one of the “hottest” in sometime…
Nelson, this January has been the coolest since 1984. The world weather is chaotic and repeatedly hearing that 75% of inspect species have declined in England since 1970 or that this or that species of mammal is about to become extinct is so depressing.
Coolest January in Melbourne, that is. The summer flowers haven’t taken off at all.
Sometimes I believe that wars will make us forget about any climate change… if humans are not even preserving themselves they would care much less about other species.
Nelson, what I’ve found over the years after living in Europe, US, Australia, and South America is that all politicians have one thing in common- self interest and pleasing those that back them. The environment gets a cursory look if it’s topical at the time.
Look on the bright side guys. While many human accomplishments are tributes to evolution, others will assure that “civilization” is a brief footnote in the unwritten history of the earth. With so many ways for technology and related mischief to kill us, i believe climate change is the least of our problems. As a famous writer once said, nature bats last.
We don’t have any groundhog celebrities in Vermont, but the groundhogs we do have would definitely not have seen any shadows today. It was a very dark day but mild for February so they might not have minded staying out for a while.
Word has it that Maycock’s Bay has scratched out of the Southwest Stakes.
I’ll play a $2.00 Super P/W, keying Otto the Conqueror and Carbone in the first two slots, with Wynstock, Liberal Arts, Mystik Dan and Just Steel in the third and fourth slots.
That is: 4,7/4,7/ 5,6,10,11/ 5,6,10,11.
Safe trips to all.
I do not expect Fierceness and Nysos to lose tomorrow, I like Wynstock at Oaklawn, again at a price—my longshot is in the Withers, where Seminole Chief gets generous odds (12-1)— has shown affinity for two turns, has worked well for this….this is the time these horses start to sort themselves out, four Derby preps Spring has begun!
I hear they may scratch Stronghold from the Lewis, and send him to Fairgrounds? That would “tell” me they’re serious, to duck Nysos–horse is training well, adds blinkers—
As previously stated, Sierra Leone’s MSW debut win was a Wow! moment for me. I laid into him heavily in the Remsen as I theorized that his 9/2 price was probably his last at such an attractive offering.
The colt’s pending start in the Risen Star should provide an opportunity to recover losses. None of his likely opponents’ resumes reflect what this colt had to do to win on debut and to finish second in the Remens. Critical examination of resumes, unblurred by high speed/sheet figures and wide margin wins, can provide revelations many handicappers might miss.
One of the reasons I locked on the Rich Stike like a guided missile. Was partly insanity and mostly what proved to be brilliance. OK! the last reason is for humor. It was his geared down debut win over 8F in 1:36.84 with a huge gallop out. The average 8F split for the last 20 KDs excluding those on S/S surfaces, is approximately. 1:36.34
I theorized that if RS wasn’t geared down, he would have easily attained the average 8F split for the KD and with his such gallop out. The 10F of the KD and the average winning time of 2:02 plus for the last 20 KD s was well within his scope.
The 8F split for 2022 KD was 1:36.96. The final time was 2:02.61. Rich Strike’s geared down time of 1:36.84 in his maiden breaker was faster. The colt simply reproduced his Maiden Claiming performance to win the KD. He proved to be horse for course.
BTW: Epicenter the runner up also broke his maiden at over 8F ad CD not in geared down fashion in a time of 1:36.36.
Sierra Leone won on debut over 8F in 1:36.94. To many his final time is meaningless. But to the critical thinking analyst, it reflects potential KD winner. Not all 1:36 for 8F are alike. Those recorded on debut should be viewed as noteworthy. Greater note should be taken of Sierra Leone’s debut win because of his less-than-ideal trip.
The colt bobbled at the start and was 5W at the top of the stretch and won in hand. When a debutant records a time of 1:36 plus over 8F, whilst giving up ground in two instances and finishes in hand. Its reservoir of stamina is extremely difficult to assess. His winning time with a less than ideal trip was within range of the average 8F KD split in his first race.
His Remsen performance albeit in defeat, was even more impressive, given the additional challenges of a sloppy/sealed surface, the speed bias on the day and the added distance for a second start. Only two horses closed from far back with serious interest and both came up short i.e., Sierra Leone and Senor Buscador the recent runner up in the Pegasus. Is it feasible to use Senor Bucador’s Pegasus performance to project how Sierra Leone is likely to perform in the Risen Star?
I always try to be measured regarding all things Thoroughbred Racing related, given the glorious uncertainties of the sport. But I am of the opinion that Sierra Leone’s opponents will have serious difficulties not falling victim to ferocious his late speed down a Fair Ground stretch that extends forever.
My only concern this colt is he appears to paddle. He is therefore always a risky proposition.
Fairgrounds stretch plenty long for closers, it should be exciting..
I’ll fashion a Nysos–Stronghold exacta….and a small win wager on Stronghold, who has a nice work pattern—Nysos does, too!..Rained pretty good today, cleared out and Fri and Sat will be clear….
The weather looks good for Saturday everywhere if a bit cool in New York and Hot Springs but no rain to speak of. It’s 98f here on Sunday and 90f on Saturday.
I’LL TAKE A CHANCE THAT EVERYONE HAS WRITTEN OFF THE WINE STEWARD TO BE IN THE exacta
The Wine Steward hasn’t worked since finishing 2nd to Locked, in the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity, on 10-27-23.
Something is not right with this Michael Maker trained colt.
I think he means Wine Me Up?…
Too much wine maybe? 🙂
Aside from the Derby prep races that have been run, the upcoming Risen Star Stakes, on February 17th, will comprise the most competitive field in a Derby prep race, IMO.
The horses that are listed as “Probable” are as follows,
Track Phantom, 1st in the Gun Runner and 1st in the Lecomte, (the likely post time favorite).
Honor Marie, 1st in the Kentucky Jockey Club.
Catching Freedom, 1st in the Smart Jones.
Sierra Leone, 2nd in the Remsen. Closed from 10th to finish a nose behind Dornoch.
Real Men Violin, 2nd in the Kentucky Jockey Club.
Snead, 2nd in the Gun Runner.
Hall of Fame, 1st MSW, 1 1/16, 1:44.27, drawing off by 10 1/4 lengths.
Resilience, 1st MSW, 1 1/16, 1:43.98, by 4 1/4 lengths.
Moonlight, 4th in the Remsen.
Good luck trying to handicap the Risen Star. 🙂
Bill, if this field holds together, it promises to be one of the best Derby preps in recent years. A must watch race for all racing fans.
Honor Marie and Sierra Leone will garner most of my attention, but I’ll also be curious as to how well Hall of Fame fares in his first big test. Should be a very good race to wager on. Stay healthy, y’all.
Thanks for the reply Dewey.
Yes indeed, without question, the most competitive prep race on this year’s Derby trail.
It may change the Derby Rankings a tad considring 7 of those horses are in the top 15. Four or five likely will be dropped, maybe a couple this week depending on the results. Crazy year.
Thanks for the reply, Steve.
Your Derby Rankings-Week 3 should be interesting.
Have mercy! That’s most of my top 12 right there.
I will be swinging for the fences in the Southwest with the entrant below:
COMMON DEFENSE
A gut feeling, pedigree and a debut runner up performance has landed me on this colt. Equibase reflects he only secured a bid of $9,000 in the 2021 Keeneland Breeding Stock sale. He left the ring as RNA. A good one that might have slipped through the cracks.
His pedigree screams turf. He was sired by the 2014 BC Turf Mile winner Karakontie and out of Street Cry mare. But doesn’t seem to display a high knee action at any point in his 2 starts to date. Both sire and dam sire were explosive closers.
His debut performance had three phases of note. He led out of the gates, dropped back to 2nd last and then unleashed a serious closing kick to get within 2 1/2L of the useful Lat Long who recently finished 3rd in the Lecomte. He also had powerful gallop out. His performance indicated that he has way above average ability.
This colt has the tactical speed to be in mid pack. He also has a serious turn of foot. With a strong pace expected. He will be rolling late and has an excellent chance to get there over a distance that suits him. Being a January foal he might just be just a bit stronger than most.
Trainer McPeek has two entrants in the field. His regular rider and upset king, Julian Leparoux has opted for the captioned colt over the more expereinced Mystic Dan. Noteworthy!
A very good evaluation, Counter Point. Common Defense impressed me when finishing strong in his maiden win at a mile. The expected quick pace in the Southwest should suit him well when he puts in his rally. Even if Common Defense doesn’t visit the winner’s circle on Saturday, I feel that he has plenty of upside and we have yet to see his best (on dirt or turf).
Now that all the entries for the 3YO stakes Saturday have been posted, I was pleased to see that the Lewis actually drew NINE starters, so it won’t be a total Baffert-fest (unless his three entries dominate). Here are the post times for the relevent races, including one allowance and two stakes for fillies. No outright time conflicts, but the two biggest races go off five minutes apart.
All times EST.
2:37 GS AOC (Born Noble, Merit, Ari’s Magic)
3:55 Withers
4:08 Swale
4:38 Forward Gal
4:40 Martha Washington
5:15 Robert Lewis
5:45 Holy Bull
5:50 Southwest
Thanks Ms Blacktype, if I advance 4 hours on those times, plus am not pm, on Sunday morning all things are sweet. Ha ha
Yes, Davids, I often wonder how you keep track of events on the other side of the world. I have enough trouble with the recently completed AUS Open. I didn’t even realize Djokovic had been eliminated in a semi-final until the day after the tournament was over.
Practice Ms Blacktype, ha ha. Europe is the bad time for me now, sometimes you have to sacrifice the next daytime if you really want to watch a major race or a Manchester City match. lol.
It was sad watching Djokovic lose, he never really looked on top of his game this year. Sometimes just hearing a (bad) result is better than watching. Especially in horse racing.
I have a very short KD contenders list that became shorter with Parchment Party being off the trail.
On my list is a colt sired by Laim’s Map. He is way under the radar, and it appears his trainer Brad Cox thinks he is a cut below derby standard. My perspective of the debut wining colt differs from that of his trainer who should know better about him than I do. But I might just be driven by self-absorption.
I am of the opinion this colt can compete with those on the KD Trail. My conclusion is based on his 2nd place finish in his 2nd career start. The race was on 11/25/2023, the same day as the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. The fractions for both races are listed below:
Bergen: AOC 8F ———– 22.44; 45.56; 1:11.22; 1:37.94
Honor Marie: KJC 81/2F —23.70; 48.45, 1:13.40; 1:38.01; 1:44.31
Bergen experienced a bumping issue at the start and also experienced traffic problems approaching the turn for home. He rallied from 10th navigating through traffic to finish 1 1/4l of the winner.
I am of the opinion he would have emerged the winner with a better trip. But more importantly, the fractions recorded for first 6F in the AOC contested 4 races before the KHC Stakes, were significantly faster as highlighted above. There was no significant difference in the 8F time with the AOC time being slightly better.
It could be argued that the comparison is between an 8F and an 81/2F race. That would be correct. However, if Bergen had to close into a 48-half mile instead of a 45-half mild, he would be required to use less fuel. As flawed as the comparison might be. it provides an indication of the ability of Beren.
Bergen’s sire Liam’s Map recorded consistently fast times over 8F & 9F. His best progeny to date is Pegasus Turf winner Colonel Laim. It appears Liam’s Map has a talented dirt horse in Bergen who appear to have all the tools to be KD contender.
Bergen with wins and a 2nd place finish from 3 starts, hasn’t exhibited a lot of tactical speed but has displayed an abundance of late race speed. He covers round efficiently, and his stride mechanics reflects no wasted motion. It is my hope that he will be entered in a KD prep soon. His last out win in the 6F Jimmy Windfield Stakes (Black Type) was an excellent start to his 3YO campaign.
Wow Honor Marie was many lengths behind those slower fractions….against winners….and he won going away, twenty lengths on the gallop out—also was two turns at Churchill Downs…
Steve, thanks again for your in-depth overview of what is happening on the road to the Derby this week. Besides the Derby prep races the return of Born Noble and Merit in race 6 at Gulfstream Park and the return of Legalize in the Swale Stakes, also at Gulfstream Park, are the highlights.
At this stage of the battle to Churchill Downs everything is in flux so expect the unexpected or, conversely, what appears to be predictable. So, if Fierceness falters in the Holy Bull Stakes is that a good or a bad thing considering the scarcity of horse who have won the Derby after winning the Holy Bull Stakes. See, there’s an escape clause for you, Fierceness.
The loss of Parchment Party was somewhat compensated with the win by Speak Easy but not really. Yes, I’m high on the Construction brigade this year along with Honor Marie and Merit but it’s only early so you are forgiven if your heart or mind switches allegiance down the track.
As for CDI and Bob Baffert, it is what it is. If CDI’s profits were being affected by the ban they would have dropped it years ago. CDI have one major concern, CDI, nothing else matters to them. Let’s enjoy the races and forget about the intractable conflict. I’m excited about this weekend’s races.
RE: G3 Withers Stakes, 9F
It’s not that often you see a 2yr. colt break his maiden in a 9F race, but that’s exactly what Speed Runner accomplished, at Aqueduct, on 12-8-23. Todd Pletcher must think highly of this Whisper Hill Farm homebred colt, because he’s entered in the 9F Withers Stakes. He didn’t draw well at PP #1, but he appears to have enough speed to get into contention early on.
By Gun Runner, out of a Gone West mare, his dam side is inundated with class and stamina, which is probably the reason Pletcher entered him in a 9F maiden race.
In my view, Speed Runner is the colt to beat in the G3 Withers.
Safe trips to all.
Will be an exciting race. I am on Lightline, and think we might have another City of Light in the dozen before too long…
What some people seem to be missing is that these Derby preps won’t be preps for Baffert’s horses. They won’t be at 90%, trying to qualify but also peak on the first Saturday in May. They will be firing their best shots in the preps. No reason to save anything for May 4.
May the 4th be with you.
I look at it differently….they are shipping— Bob wants to see how they ship—his aim is Baltimore and Saratoga, there’s no way he will have his three year olds cranked up 100% for early prep races ..
The handle for the 2022 and 2023 Kentucky Derbies were the biggest ever with the 2023 setting a record.
BB Transferees:
2022 –
Messier – Finished 15th @7/1
Taiba – finished 12t @5/1
2023 –
Reincarnate – finished 13th @ 14/1
How much of those record handles did the BB transferees contribute? If the 3 were not the starting gates. Would the amounts wagered on them be placed on other entrants or would be it be excluded from the pool? The KD will probably set another record again even with the absence of the BB continent.
The KD is very hard race to win:
Bill Mott a HOF Trainer secured his only win via a disqualification. His promoted winner was 65/1
Claude McGaughey after years of trying and many without an entrant won with Orb.
Todd Pletcher had entrant s in the KD since 2000 with 2003 be the only exception. He won 2 KD due to the misfortune of others. He has been represented by 64 starters to date.
The late Great Bobby Frankel left us without a KD winner. His best prospect was the regally bred Empire Maker and he was beaten by a Funny Cide to which he was superior in talent.
There were and still are excellent trainers that have found out the KD isn’t an easy dragon to slay even with the best weapon.
BB was in the pits with his contemporaries in pursuit of KD glory in the 16 years preceding 2015. He was fortunate secure his 3rd KD winner during this period. He could have been viewed as an under achievers during this period given, he was a nose away from saddling 3 consecutive KD winners in the nineties.
Something unimageable occurred in the 7 years span from 2015 to 2021. The KD, once considered the hardest dirt race for 3YO to win, was no more. It had lost its difficulty status and one trainer had illuminated at his barn QED. t might not be correct to regard the QED as an acronym, but I use it regularly after successfully completing a task others considered difficult
Quite Easily Done (QED) in reference to the Kentucky Derby is an afront to all trainers not named Bob Baffert. But that’s the bragging right Bob Baffert possesses. Has any of his loyal fans ever pause and wondered how he emerged from 13 years of not winning the KD to virtual unbeatable even with entrant with less than stellar resumes.
BILL MOTT
The captioned trainer secured his 3rd Eclipse for Outstanding Trainer. In 2023, he saddled two repeat Breeder Cup winners which is probably a BC record. Those two winners in combination won17 of their last 19 starts. That also must be another record for two retirees from the same barn heading for stallion duties.
The trainer had to sideline Parchment Party a colt considered by many to be very talented. His absence from the KD is not being met with the same responses as those reading the absence of the BB’s contingent for reason of arrogance and ignorance.
Trainer Mott might not have the TC resume of BB. But it should be noted that he had 2 entrants to BB’s 3 in the 2019 KD. His 2 finished ahead of BB’s 3. In my opinion Mott is by far a better trainer than BB. However, the absence of his KD entrant for reasons of a setback, is trumped by the absence of likely entrants from the barn of a disgraced trainer.
Not only was Medina Spirit disqualified from his KD victory, but the colt also dropped dead sometime thereafter. His demise isn’t dissimilar to 7 horses under BB’ Keep and care who dropped dead in a short span initiating a major investigation of operation.
A trainer cannot be divorced from his record.
I close with the name of the deserving winner of the 2020 KD -Tiz The Law. His defeat is responsible for the Karam visited Bob Baffert.
Hey Counter Point
I’m anxious to see if Knightsbridge and Resilience, both trained by William Mott, will have an impact on the Derby trail.
Any thoughts on those two Mott colts?
Thanks
You have offered statistics to infer that Bob Baffert over a period of several years used undetected substances to create KD and TC winners. Anything is possible, but it is only speculation. The overages in Gamine and Medina Spirit, i believe you would agree, were not responsible for signifigant performance enhancement. If Mr. Baffert is guilty of the crimes of which you hold him responsible, he should be banned. However, without evidence, i believe the concept of equal justice should prevail. I know that is a novel concept right now.
Medina Spirit suffered a “heart attack”, more correctly of sudden cardiac arrest in early December after a workout.
The necropsy did not find an explanation for the sudden death and the only medication found in his system was Lasix which is allowed while training.
The 7 horses you are referring to had been given Thyroxine but per the necropsy and the CHRB, not enough to cause death.
Sudden cardiac arrest happens to horses of all ages and breeds.
Scat Daddy died at age 11 while walking from his paddock to his stall. Lucky Pulpit, California Chrome’s sire, died suddenly at around age 15 whilev covering a mare. A young girl in my part of the county died when her 8 year old Quarter Horse gelding died sudden while practicing barrel patterns. There was a steeplechase horse in England who died suddenly a while back.
Medina Spirit was disqualified and taken down and Baffert was suspended for a drug overage that is supposed to be discontinued
14 days before a race.
Love him or hate him, many people including myself and others on the forum and on other media sites feel that added year of suspension and having to assign his horses to another trainer this early as being ludicrous and without justification.
If the owners collectively decided to remain with Baffert, then that was their decision to make and really none of our business, well none of mine, some may think it is their business. I also take objection to some of the conspiracy theories that owners are planning to sabotage the Derby as some sort of vendetta for what has happened to Baffert. I do not think for one minute that Barbara Banke for example would be party to such a thing.
Both Baffert snd CDI dug their heels in. What was really needed here was an arbitrator. CDI gives the impression that they dare anyone to try and unsurp their “authority” and if they do, there will be ramifications. Baffert should have given it up a long time ago.
He should have known he eas going to get a ruling in his favor in the heart of Thoroughbred Country.
When I commented below that this hurts the sport, I meant it. All anyone is talking about and will be talking about for the next 3 months and Derby Day will Baffert, Baffert. Don’t you know that animal rights groups will be lapping this up with glee?
The owners, horses and trainers who could be hurt are the ones who are fighting for points to make the cut. If the Baffert horses run in the preps and accepts the points or CDI does not award the points as they would normally be distributed.(example 100 points to the place horse and not 50), people will be coming after Baffert and CDI with tar and feathers. Again I just cannot see the owners of the horses with Baffert doing that.
I had hoped all this drama and the drama from the 3 previous Derbys would be over and done with for the 150th Anniversiary.
Edit: not get a ruling in his favor…
Lynda it COULD HAVE BEEN OVER, Bob blinked first, but CDI kept the door slammed shut….it’s their race, Bob’s owners are losing big-time …but they tried the switching barns, and it did not work—it’s CDI’S decision, perhaps there will be a great Belmont, at Saratoga this year….I still love to bet on the Derby, even without all of the top contenders it’s a one-of-a-kind race…..
Lynda, thank you for posting this. You speak eloquently on several points here, backing up your statements with relevant facts that show why the sport is in trouble. No one really knows how the various drugs (legally applied) in common use among thoroughbreds effects them in the long or short term. But compared to drugs applied to racehorses a century ago (everything from strychnine to belladonna), my hunch is that drugs are not responsible for catastrophic injuries and sudden deaths. My hunch is that it’s the result of the trend to breed only to dominant sire lines in the last 40 or 50 years. This exactly coincides with the era when the “sport” shifted to breeding and sales for profit in the mid-1980s, something Steve has written about many times.
Thank you Ms B.
You made a very good point, we do not know what the long term effects are on the horses.
The more I read and study and research I am starting to think more and more like you that it is the mod=n day breeding practices.
Good luck with your Derby selections!
I feel bad for Steve that the comments to his phenomenal post are mainly about BB situation, but I understand. My take is that it is one race that is affected, and that I am more interested in the mental and physical development of these equine athletes, and the game plans put into place by the people surrounding them. I am grateful that Steve takes us through the journey and makes it all so much more enjoyable.
The race I am most interested in is the Southwest this weekend, mainly because it seems like such a good betting race. There really does seem to be a strong likelihood of a fast pace. I am really interested to see how far Carbone or any Mitole’s for that matter can stretch out if they have strong stamina influence from the dam. I’ve posted about this a few times already, but I am gonna try to make some $ with Magic Grant picking up some pieces. I totally agree with Steve that he will need to dramatically improve his speed figures, but I hear the “experts” touting Otto the Conqueror and Magic Grant would have beat him in the Springboard if there was a half a furlong more to run, and he galloped out way past him after the wire.
His pedigree is strong, by Good Magic and with Halo on Dam’s side. This is just his fourth race, and he fired a bullet on January 3rd. I remember well Shedaresthedevil starting slow and then closing hard for minor awards in lower class stakes, but then figuring out she could run fast both early and late. Might happen with this colt too…
Thank you Greg. I understand Baffert is a hot topic but thanks for writing about the horses and races that actually matter now.
Hi Greg,
Regarding the Southwest.
First of all we need to note that per equibase the track favors speed 64% of the time.
Also to note that the best post positions are inside 1-3 I would stretch that to 4 in this race because the #3 is a closer.
Regarding Carbone, I just don’t think he is fast enough for these unless he takes a huge jump forward.
IMHO the one who may survive the battle up front is the Baffert horse(no surprise there) the main dangers to him are Otto and Liberal A.
Yet I don’t see any of these top three going too far towards the derby. Of course the BB horse is a no factor there.
Well said, Greg. I was just about ready to jump in and ask if it was safe to come back. I do hope BB has left the building.
I also find the Southwest an attractive betting race this weekend. Like you, I’m anxious to see if Carbone can stay the course while not getting caught up in a speed duel. If Santana can get him to relax and rate a stalking pace, then I think Carbone can win this. My longshot to use in the exotics is Ken McPeek’s Common Defense who should benefit from the fast pace. He looked real good breaking his maiden at a mile.
Enjoy the ride!
After finishing 6th on debut over 5 1/2F. Magic Grant connections opted for the Clever Trevor a Black Type stakes. I am of the opinion that decision was driven by the colt’s 3F work on 10/20/2023. It was a very fast. 34.65. He followed up with a 7F work in 1:28.19.
Magic Grant is faster than his running style reflects.
“A Diabetes Drug’s Outsized, Contested Role in Horse Racing’s Anti-Doping Crusade”
“Trainer Mike Lauer is now a month past serving what he believes was an unjust 75-day suspension because a Thoroughbred under his care at Horseshoe Indianapolis tested positive last summer for metformin, a drug used to treat diabetes in people. With more 20 million patients taking it, metformin ranks as the nation’s third-most-prescribed human medicine, according to the consumer healthcare website Healthgrades.”
and there is a whole lot more.
Does a trainer who has been in business like 50+ years need to got thru the system of “You are guilty until, until you prove that you are not guilty?
Laws had to go thru stringent evaluation before they introduced DUI. They had to make sure everyone charged with DUI those charges stood in any court.
That is where horse racing needs to go back to, not something which stands in one court and that same thing is disallowed by a judge in another court
It would be glorious, if baffert’s talented brigade, starts knocking off big race after big race. Wait that’s already been happening. Owners figured that winning other big races matter more than participating in a race won by a Rich strike quality of horse.
When you think about how hard things have become, for The Preakness…..the ban could give the race a jolt of interest—instead of the Derby winner and a small stakes winner or two—maybe Bob’s three year olds could spice up The Preakness, make it the race it used to be—like 1997…four horses at the wire!….
If Baffert wins this year’s Preakness Stakes it will be his ninth time without any medical issues for his horses….Baffert already owns the record at eight Preakness Stakes win that might ever be broken….on top of six Kentucky Derby victories-again an accomplishment that might never be broken or approached again….and without any medical issues for those previous six.
Those are just the facts and not some uniformed and incoherent conspiratorial drivel that the B haters love to blabber about.
Lance Armstrong won SEVEN consecutive Tour De France races and not once did he test positive.
Also, there are two idiots serving prison time as I type this. Servis and Navarro. Had they kept their mouths shut, they would still be getting away with the shenanigans that they were involved in. Why, because the authorities didn’t know what to test for……very similar to Lance.
What is the point you are trying to make about BB? Where there’s a will….there’s always a way.
We can rewind to his first year of training. He was suspended for ONE year for giving his horse Cocaine. He ain’t no saint.
In 2022 the US Attorney’s office asked the FBI to look into Baffert and others involving nefarious activity in the horseracing world, both past and present, The FBI concluded that there was nothing there with regard to Baffert…nothing at all. But, sadly it was not the same for others that were sent to prison.
But go ahead a see if the CIA or Interpol can get the goods on B.
Source for the US Attorney’s office asking the FBI to investigate BB?
Sports Illustrated, May 4, 2022. Just to name a few.
John,how did he do in last Breeders Cup?
Mike, where have you been? I thought Steve H. might round up a posse to see where you went. Anyway, if might not have been the BC but the Pegasus Cup is a nice alternative. Good to hear from you though.
Steve I just “got” your 10:01am post, you’re too funny!….
Overwhelming post time favorites Point Given (2001) and Lookin At Lucky (2010) finished off the board. In 2019 Game Winner (Champion 2YO), Roadster (SA Derby winner) and Improbable (2nd A K Derby/ Post time favorite), gave BB his strongest multiple entrants hand in the KD. None of the 3 hit the board in the original order of finish.
I can think of no supporter of BB that could have envisage the above 5 not hitting the board. What can be extrapolated from the unimaginable results on record for the 5? The Kentucky Derby is no man’s domain. Not even the one with the best modern era record.
The absence of entrants from the barn of BB doesn’t negatively impacts the KD. The race is bigger than a trainer and his loyal owners. I’s the people’s race. It will always be the Kentucky Derby irrespective of how composition of the field perceived.
The supporters of BB appear to be only focused on the phase of his career when he became almost unbeatable in the KD. Many might be unaware of have chosen to ignore the 16 years span in which he won the KD once. That winner was (War Emblem a colt he never developed. Only 1n 4 of those 16 years he didn’t have a starter.
During those 16 years BB was just a regular KD trainer experiencing the disappointments that is a feature of the KD. He like many trainers with previous success in the KD might have been wondering, when another of his entrant would again be adorned the rose covered garland. The big question has to be. What changed?
A preview of what was to come was on display 2014. A shocking victory by Bayern in the PA Derby & BCC and a 1:58 plus winning time recorded by the 7YO Game On Dude in the Big Cap, were pertinent sing of the future.
In 2015 there was the TC winner AP and the rest you all know. In 7-year span 4 KD winners and two TC winners. Was this the same BB that struggled to win the KD in the 16 years prior to 2015?
I close with a bit of lyrics for the popular song Dive by The Cars – You can’t go on thinking nothing’s wrong.
Interesting evidence, but circumstantial. I’ve been fooled before, and i’m sure i will be again, and i can’t pretend to know what i don’t know. However, your presumption raises questions. Was Woody Stephens taking an edge in the 1980s? Did Nick Zito cheat at one time, but now that he’s clean can’t win a race? As far as i know, none of that happened. Todd Pletcher has racked up some medication positives but continues to fail in the Derby. Does he not have the good stuff? The thing i had heard about Baffert is that he would treat his best 2yos with steroids after Del Mar to build them up, then take them off in time to be clean by January, but this was during what you describe as his cold streak.
First of all and this is no great news, turf races are run in an opposite way than how the dirt races are run. Why am I saying that here?
Go back and look at the charts that many of the top horses who failed to perform well in the derby was because of the way dirt races are run, they come out running. In doing that there is lots of bumping going on even in short fields. When that happens and the wind is knocked out, its hard for the horse to recover and give it his best performance.
Some years back, I went back on like 10 derby years just to check why a horse did not give it his best performance, and I found that 90% of those had some kind of problem in the race. Being an athlete I can relate to that.
And then there are ones that were overhyped. An example, wasn’t Shared Belief better than the winner? Thats part of US dirt racing , either we stick with it or go to an artificial surface, which is more closer to turf racing. If that switch is made, guess what happens to the entire US horse breeding industry? I can go on and on but I think for now what I stated above is enough for this post.
Steroids were legal, and in use by many barns….not for performance but for recovery…..
I agree. What he was doing wasn’t illegal. It was Bob’s method to have the best 3yos. Now he starts some of his best later, after they’ve grown.
Banned starting in 2009.
Well yeah MOST of Bob’s horses didn’t win The Derby….do you know Bob has less horses than Todd or Brad? Their percentages are far lower, with their 3yos ….Mr Levin, on the Thorograph show does not think Brad runs “clean”, he’s always talking about his sudden dominance, which I attribute to his owners—a trainer is as good as his owners—but you seem convinced about Bob and Todd using some mystery drug…..and you think Brad is running a clean ship—just wondering where/how you from your cold facts….
His fault.
Point Given? LOL ok he only won the next 2 TC races. LAL? He only won the Preakness and Haskell LOL! And what about Silver Charm? Come on stop it!
Yawn!
Now that a number of us have vented about the CDI ban/Baffert situation, I want to take this chance to compliment you, Steve, on the brilliance of your column. You point out winning a 2YO stakes rarely equates to a Kentucky Derby win. That’s why it’s important to carefully watch horses that emerge in December, January and February for glimpses of brilliance and a progressive Thoro-graf pattern. Often, it’s one of these late bloomers who wins the roses.
Hi Steve
Thank you for providing another in depth analysis of your top 15 Derby prospects and pointing out other contenders on the Derby trail in your KOTD segment. Your efforts are much appreciated.
I swung for the fences in KD Futures Pool 3, placing $40.00 wagers and $2.00 exacta p/w wagers on 12 horses that I like moving forward. All 12 appear on your top 15 Derby Rankings, and/or on your KOTD segment, (week 1 and week 2).
Those 12 are:
Merit, 99-1
Real Men Violin, 99-1
Resilience, 93-1
Otto the Conqueror, 91-1
Deterministic, 99-1
Tuscan Sky, 88-1
Imperial Gun, 80-1
Ari’s Magic, 74-1
Snead, 69-1
Otello, 59-1
El Capi, 33-1
Catching Freedom, 28-1
El Capi is off the trail …
Thanks for the heads up Matthew W.
Have you heard why El Capi is off the Derby trail?
Thanks.
I missed the HRN announcement on Jan. 24th. El Capi has shin problems.
Yes …shins are a common problem with growing horses, Best Pal was plagued with bad shins …
Does anyone know the status of the injured @2 Rhyme Schemes trained by young Casse?
TDN Jan 13, 2024.
Saratoga Special Winner Rhyme Schemes Aiming for Late Spring/Early Summer Return
I thank you!
Your welcome.
You can google that headlines and read the whole thing.
I did the moment I received your info! So disappointed as he impressed me as much if not more than any 2 yo once they put on blinkers. Sounds like he has a chance to continue. I have learned how fragile they are as my alltime fave is still the mighty Forego who had 3 unsound legs! T
Thanks again!
I sure hope he comes back. He is by Ghostzapper, and reminds me of Loggins last year who battled Forte (and took second) in the Futurity at Keenland and was the only horse of the early pace to finish in top half of the field. I had him circled, and unfortunately he never ran again. Loggins was a GZ also.
To the topic of Baffert.
I will add one thing, CDI will run his horses with a fine tooth comb next year and find some excuse to ban him again.
So its not over, its a grudge, like trying to go against the deep state.
As for this week, I don’t think anyone is close to Fierceness in the HB and the SW goes thru BB
Thanks for another week of your rankings. Looking forward to Born Noble and Timberlake ( wow what a pedigree) With everything else taking up the news cycle it’s a shame we’re not going to get to see Warm Heart race again. Would of loved to see her get in another year. What a turn of foot! IMPRESSIVE
I posted this on the wrong week…..CDI SET THE TERMS and CDI CHANGED THE TERMS—-owners capitulated at first…but not this year they didn’t! They stuck with Bob, who now prepared towards the Preakness and Belmont—by running in PREPS…..CDI gambled, and CDI loses some Derby timber (likely)….Saratoga might get Bob’s horses in several races, as New York is open to Bob’s running, it is what it is, the owners are playing with the cards they have left, and Bob’s three year olds might be in a strong place, for having not run in the Kentucky Derby….
The bigger loss is to the sport!
There was nothing wrong with the Derby last year, some nice human/horse interest stories emerged. In fact, it was a good year for stories, better than most, except they turned tragic in Saratoga. I don’t think horse racing lost that much last year, in spite of the problems and tragic losses. This year there may be some egos lost in the ditches along the road to the triple crown, but whose? But people are malleable and will return. New horses are foaled and mature. Some of these owners are pretty new to the game, maybe they’ll realize they didn’t buy the right horses. Maybe they should consult Coolmore! They’re all knowing! Time to shake up the breed!
It’s the times we are living in, people trying to win by limiting their main competition…
You said it brother, especially in politics.
Ditto..
CDI is suffering from BDS, Baffert Derangement Syndrome.
Years ago the organizers of the Kdntucky Derby were called a “bunch of backwater yahoos “. I now believe they were right!
Too many BB fans are blinded from hero worship,unable like him to accept fallout for his actions. Like many,BB is a major
drag for racing.
Hi Steve;
Thanks for your insights and analysis: My derby prep season only starts when your columns appear! Re the Baffert horses, I am interested to see if they compete in the major Derby prep races, and how they fare. Last year, I had a $60 bet at post time on Mage, which recovered $1,000 of my my accumulated $1,300 of Derby futures: This year I plan to concentrate on fewer horses. It is much easier with your weekly insights!
I hope we all have a safe, great and profitable Derby prep season!
Steve, I expect Born Noble to be in your top 5 soon. Perhaps even next week. Pletcher is loaded this year.
Your Derby columns are the highlight of my week! Glad to see Born Noble in your comments.
Hi Steve – Glad you moved up Liberal Arts to #11 on your list. All systems go for LA as he is preparing to ship to OP for the SW stakes. As you mentioned Steve, the pace should be there to set up LA run in the SW. He already has 13 points and looks for a win or good second to add to his Derby points total. Ari’s Magic as you also managed is running in a stacked ALLOW race in the Holy Bull undercard. A win or a strong second should propel AM to a 50 Point prep in March as he hopes to jump onto the KY Derby trail. Liberal Arts at 46-1 in KDFW2 and Ari’s Magic at 74-1 in KDFW3 are my two KDFW hopefuls. Both talented colts run this weekend and I’m excited to watch these races and hope both fire a big shot in their quest to make the KY Derby starting gate as a serious contender.
I believe the owners as concerned stakeholders have realized that CDI was unfair in dealing with Baffert in his attempts to just defend the interests of one of their own. So, the owners who entrust their horses to Baffert recognized and appreciated this kind of loyalty and in turn they remained loyal to the Hall of Fame Trainer.
CDI attempting to cancel Baffert translates into constraining the assets of the Thoroughbred breeders and owners.
No one likes ultimatums… CDI Derby is just the first leg of the national Triple Crown series; it is not the only race in the world.
In my mind the corporation is self-inflicting harm when it bans the greatest promoter of its Derby: the architect of the last two Triple Crown champions and one who is absolutely devoted to developing Triple Crown horses. The Trainer will be now the best advertiser of the Preakness and the Belmont Stakes.
I hope the CDI vendetta backfires and that the first leg of the Triple Crown will be run without the winners of the Santa Anita Derby, the Arkansas Derby and even without the Louisiana Derby winner.
t would be great to see all the Baffert owners deciding to strike the Florida Derby, the Wood Memorial and the Blue Grass Stakes… it will teach CDI the meaning of STAKEHOLDERS and that a Corporation should first and foremost identify who its real foes are…
And of course, CDI will carry the historic burden of weakening the chances of another Triple Crown Champion … if it means anything to the vindictive CDI.
You’re wrong. No one is above the races. They don’t need any one person to promote the triple crown. I still revert to Secretariat for that. The owners are planning their own vendetta, or seem to be, which could backfire. Running and winning in all the big races but the Derby? That’s throwing down the gauntlet. What if they lose? You apparently have already elevated the few who have even been in the preps, to being the best and they’ve done little to nothing. Well, I hope all the trainers in the country take note and train that much harder to beat these horses. There’s some good ones this year. Such disrespect for all the other trainers and Derby horses this year, to regard them as irrelevant bystanders in this melodrama.
You are right … CDI is not above the races.
You may hate Baffert as much as you please, but it is clear CDI is exaggerating the punishment against the trainer. CDI wanted Baffert to “shut up” and when he and his owners go out with a white flag and seek a truce the corporation just keeps shooting at them.
CDI is banning Baffert forever because of 21 picograms of betamethasone that had no effect on the outcome of the 2021 Derby. However, CDI is not banning itself after 12 fatalities last April and May at Churchill Downs… it blames everyone else and banned indefinitely an innocent trainer (Saffie Joseph).
No one is disrespecting trainers but the CDI when it arbitrarily decides to scratch Lord Miles from the Derby damaging the interests of the owners.
CDI with its absurd ultimatums is disregarding the right of the owners to choose the trainer for their own horses.
You are the only one talking about disrespecting other trainers and putting them as “irrelevant bystanders”. What I am foreseeing is that CDI is forcing banned owners to still seek winning big races for their 3-year-old assets and in doing so it is risking the quality of the Derby field.
If you feel that the Derby is the race that “everyone wants to win” and that CDI is right I respect that … but apparently not every owner feels the same… for this season at least.
“CDI is banning Baffert forever because of 21 picograms of betamethasone that had no effect on the outcome of the 2021 Derby.”
I believe you have your facts a bit hazy. CDI did not ban BB forever because the horse failed a ZERO tolerance test. They banned him TWO years initially because of his antics, his oversized ego and the fact that he tried to embarrass them by suing them.
BTW….a 1,000-pound TB racehorse has upwards of 50,000 mls (milliliters) of blood. So you’re not talking about 21 picograms in the entire horse’s body…. you’re talking about 21 picograms in one ml of blood.
To Nelson Mann,
I think you’re striking out in all directions because you feel wronged. Better not hit somebody who also wants to win, and lives far away from this fight but has or just might have, a Derby horse.
I agree, Nelson. CDI has decided to make Baffert their whipping boy, and it appears their bluff has been called. I will be rooting for any Triple Crown to be derailed by a Baffert horse. Of course, I’m sure CDI will have its thumb on the media, so any missing horses will be unmentionable during the Derby telecast.
I believe CD would love to have Bafferts owners boycott the preps. I doubt they would want Baffert to make their prep races irrelavent by beating the leading contenders and show CD what they are missing. He already has a stanglehold on all the SA preps. If Wynstock wins the Southwest it could be the tip of the iceberg and CD’s worst nightmare.
Just read that Zedan has joined the rest of the by owners.
No need to read it now. We knew that when his horses were still in Baffert’s barn at 12:01 a.m this morning
Steve, add to your point, that there is a possibility that a horse running 2nd to a BB horse in a prep race may end up with less points and may not make it to the Derby, as the winner of a lesser race where BB’s horses did not run may get more points. If that happens, then those owners/connections will also not be happy.
Plus, this CD grudge against BB is not done, they will find the tiniest excuse to ban him again in the coming years.
I wouldn’t concede any preps to Baffert’s horses, but it seems like you think they’ll win wherever they go. I wasn’t as sold on Nysos as you, there’s also competitors out there. I guess years of disappointment from eastern horses has convinced some that Baffert will continue to win, given a chance. I don’t think he should enter Derby preps because he can’t use the points.
This was a reply to Steve Haskin.
You said it well, Nelson. I had a feeling the owners of horses trained by Baffert decided they’d had enough of being told what to do by fiat. And Discopartner, I don’t see these individual owners planning a vendetta against CDI, even though Bob may take delight in picking off wins in as many prep races as possible. Let’s all hope the ice is breaking up and things will be back to normal next year.
Ms B, I know a number of fans who are boycotting attending the Derby and betting on the race.
I think they ARE planning a vendetta. I think they have a lot of hubris about their horses, as do Baffert’s fans, so they’ll target prep races they can’t get points for, to get bragging rights. I say go right ahead. You’re interfering with the chances of real points horses, but that’s your choice.
So, let’s see what happens. This is a competition, let’s see how the preps go, and then the Preakness and Belmont stakes, which will be at the Derby distance and that should help Baffert’s horses. Let’s see how flakey Fierceness and others turn out to be, and how great Nysos is. Alot of comments on here are about faves, not who’s the best. I guess when they coincide you have a good thing going.
CDI had no issues with BB until he made a mockery of two of the biggest racing dates in back to back years. Gamine in the Oaks and MS in the KD…..zero tolerance means zero for everyone involved….plain and simple. His ego was too big to admit that someone made a mistake, himself included.
The only person with a vendetta was BB. He thought he was above the rules and sued thinking he can get away with it. You can’t keep poking the hornets nest and hope you won’t be stung. In this case, the enablers that invested millions of $$$$ will have to spend more millions of $$$$ to have a shot in next year’s race….maybe, maybe not.
Baffert’s efforts were to clear his name from something he thought was a misjudgement. He has every right to do that.
He has already been handed a suspension, Medina Spirit was taken down.
What CDI is doing now is what comes across as revenge and a personal vendetta against Baffert.
This hurts the sport in a time when it has so many more issues than a tuf of war with Baffert.
I say enough is enough and that is too much!!!
Clear his name of what? That two of his horses came back with positives TWO years in a row? What part of ZERO tolerance is not applicable?
Look, we all know this sport is not run by saints….trainers, owners, track management, etc. However, there are simple rules to be followed, specifically on big stages such as the Kentucky Oaks and the Kentucky Derby. The rules apply to every participant. There are no exceptions! No one is above the rules!
Zany,always enjoy your spot on comments. Sadly some believe Bob walks on water.
Gamine? A tiring third?…really?….MS? he held them all at bay, and he held them all at bay in the Classic……but they are changing their ban , and now some top level talent aren’t going to be in the gate—Bob dropped his appeal, which was an olive branch—-CDI COULD have dropped their ban but they decided not to, and now we have a Derby without all of the top talent—You still blame it all on Bob?
Matthew, Derby existed long before your hero and will continue on after he’s gone. Bank on it!
Go away please, and don’t tell me who my heroes are…
Well he must be,cause you can’t hardly post comment without mentioning Bob in some form. Am I lying?
Mike ..I’ve said Bob was wrong to immediately play the “they’re cancelling me” role ….but now. I believe CDI is in the wrong—I want to see the best vs the best—you say he’s my hero, well I do have some heroes, and you’re out of line to start your own narrative, regarding my opinion on the Bob matter ….I’m not pigeon-holling YOU, I disagree with your opinion on the matter and that’s all— you got personal …
BB works horses too hard. Like many,you place your head in sand ignoring obvious. Also,with many horses
in his barn,as with several Gamine subjected to joint injection shots to race. Hell,ANY horse requiring this
needs to go on shelve…. not thrown into a race. BB received special treatment for years and frankly long
time coming. Churchill Downs has every right in their actions!
Re: CA Chrome. Steve Coburn never wanted Chrome going to England for any racing event. Steve is someone
I happen to know. Prior to CA Chrome leaving for Japan, saw him in private visit at Taylor Made.
I saw Chrome the day before going to fly out for his final race, the one at Gulfstream where he couldn’t outrun Breaking Lucky out of the gate, had none of his early speed and the next day it appeared he was lame in front ….that was covered up, the narrative was ” at least he was always sound”…..thought he was mis-manafged some….Bob fits Dortmund with blinkers, I said to Art “he wants the lead” ( for the Awesome Again) his son says “let him TRY”…..and they came back blowing hard, after a 1:09 flat split—I think Bob used Dortmund to soften up Chrome, for Arrogate—note Dortmund’s trainer parted ways with Bob right after Breeders Cup beating….(out of money at 3/5…)…
Joint injections are not uncommon, Mike! Gosh….Bob does train them hard, he also runs them everywhere —two years ago: Eclipse Award Forte (retired unsound)…..Cave Rock (died, laminitis) National Treasure (RACING at the top level age four…)…
Zany’s post was very clear and concise. “zero tolerance means zero tolerance for everyone involved”. If you want to rid the Sport of illegal drugs, then they must rid the Sport of the violators. There is no conspiracy here. The rules are the rules and these actions have had a positive impact across the landscape of racing. The monster that is CDI doesn’t care about the Baffert fanboys and shouldn’t.
The decisions have been made. Tough bunch of high finance people, including billionaire hedge fund managers, on both sides, bringing down not just horse racing but the whole world, with their techniques. But these guys are shoe leather tough.
Let the derby preps continue without the distraction. The owners don’t want to be in the Derby but they’ll enter the Derby preps, to get ready for the Preakness. That’s a ripoff, for other Derby entrants who need the points that they won’t get if the Baffert horses finish ahead of them. If you can’t be in the Derby you shouldn’t be in the Derby preps, but I guess you can be.
Well then your beef is with the tracks that host the preps….
Not really, I think the owners of the Baffert horses are seeking revenge by entering the Derby preps, but they may not win.
Look ….there’s NO WAY the Bob B three year olds can find out their class by staying in Cali, they NEED to go east—Im not saying they’ll winner every race I’m saying they need to face the top level …NOTHING wrong with running in the Spring stakes, they are playing with the cards dealt them….CDI is in power here, not Bob not Bob’s owners and certainly not Bob’s three year olds … he’ll just have to prep for Baltimore and Saratoga ….
They have a choice to not run in the preps, but I guess, they need to run somewhere. I guess it’s legitimate to try those stakes, but I think they’re also saying, we’ll show you. So that immediately invites the response from other trainers and owners: No, we’ll show you. Maybe there’s a few trainers in Louisiana or Florida or Kentucky who are thinking, I’ve got a good one, we’re going to try to win, no so and so opposing owner is going to brag around me or knock my horse.
It doesn’t matter what started this fight, when you bring in other people who weren’t involved in the CDI decision. Most people, most fans and most trainers, weren’t involved in it. They knew about it and might have had strong opinions about it, but it didn’t directly affect their work. If the Baffert owners feel so wronged that they start swinging at everybody, they can expect some push back.
Great points!
I’m increasingly uncomfortabe with any 3yo race before the Kentucky Derby being referred to as a prep. Most of these races have long been prestigous races in their own right. Winning the Wood Memorial or Blue Grass used to mean something. Making “preps” open only to Derby eligible horses reminds me of the California Chrome owner crying about fresh horses challenging Chrome in the Belmont.
It’s a shame that Bob Baffert won’t be at another Derby. However there are plenty of worthy colts to study and consider.. Thank you Steve for continuing to publish weekly. I always enjoy it. I will probably read this several times.