Kentucky Derby Rankings – Week 3
It took about two minutes following the Holy Bull Stakes for it all to sink in. There is no No.1! After giving it some thought I had no choice but start psycho-analyzing Fierceness in order to keep him on top. Otherwise, where do you put him and who do you replace him with? Then I heard the news from owner Aron Wellman about Locked, and I started wondering if we still have a No. 2. Well, it’s all been sorted out so sit back and enjoy the week we almost started the Rankings with No. 3. ~ Steve Haskin
Derby Rankings: February 5, 2024 – Week 3
By Steve Haskin
1—Fierceness (Todd Pletcher, City of Light – Nonna Bella, by Stay Thirsty)
There are two reasons I’m keeping him at No. 1. The first is that there is no one else to put there…really. The second is to give him the benefit of the doubt based purely on my unqualified analysis of his effort or lack of in the Holy Bull at 1-5. My simplistic reasoning certainly does not boost his chances of winning the Kentucky Derby, only to leave his window of opportunity open and not totally abandon him. Let’s just say that this colt is immensely talented and can beat anyone at anytime and anywhere…when everything goes perfectly. He just, at least so far, has not been able to handle adversity. We saw it in the Champagne and we saw it in the Holy Bull. Although he had his head turned to the left at the start he still broke straight, but got creamed from the outside horse who forced him into the horse inside him, putting him in a tight vice. Then he came in on him again two more times and forced John Velazquez to make a right turn and bull his way out of there, forcing him to go five-wide into the turn and was still five-wide coming out of the turn. All that already put him behind the proverbial eight-ball. Then when we saw the sloth-like fractions of :50 2/5 ad 1:14 1/5 go up we knew this race was already messed up. Velazquez moved Fierceness into a short lead, but when we saw the inexperienced Hades refuse to back off we knew this wasn’t going according to plan. This wasn’t the Fierceness of the Breeders’ Cup. We got that same sinking and stunned feeling we got at the same spot in the Champagne. Like then, when he faced adversity at the start, he just gave up the fight, especially after Hades blew the final turn and forced him very wide. In short, he just turned into an ordinary horse who seemed to lose interest and unable or unwilling to keep up with a lethargic final sixteenth in almost :07 seconds. How does a horse of this caliber go from a 105 Beyer figure to an 84 after training brilliantly up to the race? I realize I may have no clue what I’m talking about, but I am looking desperately for a reason to keep the aura of invincibility around this horse in case he gets a fast track and a completely clean start and trip in the Florida Derby and Kentucky Derby. He is just too brilliant and talented a horse to dismiss off another race in which he was defeated, not because of ability or a better horse, but apathy.
2—Locked (Todd Pletcher, Gun Runner – Luna Rosa, by Malibu Moon)
Even if I wanted to move him up to No. 1 that will have to wait after he spiked a fever last week that forced him to miss his debut in Saturday’s Sam F. Davis Stakes. He is doing fine now and back training, but he did miss his final work and will now reboot and head possibly to the Fountain of Youth Stakes or Rebel Stakes, both of which may be better spots for him, as you never know how a horse will handle the Tampa track. Despite the setback I still think he is in good shape. Although he has shown enough in top-class races and there are no concerns about his ability to stay classic distances it is still interesting to note that his dam’s family traces back a number of generations to horses bred in Great Britain and Argentina, with his second dam a stakes winner in Italy and the United States and his fourth dam, a daughter of stamina influence Naskra, having won a group 3 and placed in a group 1 in Italy. But he is one of those horses who has already gone far beyond his pedigree, and being by Gun Runner, out of a Malibu Moon mare is all you really need to know about his bloodlines. After running Thoro-Graph numbers of 2, 3 ¼, and 3, all excellent numbers, he still has to show that he has made the transition from 2 to 3 and is ready to move forward.
3—Sierra Leone (Chad Brown, Gun Runner – Heavenly Love, by Malibu Moon)
There was a race on January 31 that few people saw or even knew about that did actually prove very interesting and in some ways enlightening. That was the victory by Sierra Leone’s stablemate Tuscan Gold, who romped by 6 ¼ lengths going 1 1/16 miles despite being forced five-wide into the first turn. What makes this so noteworthy is that Tuscan Gold became the fourth of Sierra Leone’s six opponents in his maiden victory to come back and win. One of them, Change of Command, won his next two starts, including a 6 ½-length maiden score, and is a leading contender in Saturday’s Sam F. Davis Stakes. Another, Ridgewood Runner, won by 4 ¼ lengths at Aqueduct and the final one, Deposition, won by 4 ¼ lengths at Parx. Of the other two, one was a highly regarded Godolphin colt trained by Bill Mott who was 6-5 coming off two solid seconds and hasn’t run since. So this looks to be as strong a maiden race as we’ve seen so far. Sierra Leone, who worked a solid half in :48 4/5, should appreciate the stretch-out to 1 1/8 miles in the Risen Star Stakes February 17. More on Tuscan Gold in Knocking on the Door.
4—Timberlake (Brad Cox, Into Mischief – Pin Up, by Lookin At Lucky)
He breezed a half in :49 1/5. One of the reasons I have him ranked this high is that he was 6-5 when he broke his maiden, 2-1 in the Hopeful Stakes, and 3-1 in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, yet closed at 30-1 in the latest Derby Future Wager, with nine horses at shorter odds. So he could be a big overlay despite his proven class. I know Cox was extremely confident before the Juvenile that he was sitting on a huge race coming off his dominating victory in the Champagne. Even though he never looked comfortable and never fired he still paired up his 2 Thoro-Graph number from the Champagne, he still ran a 103 Brisnet figure, which bettered his Champagne number of 102, and ran his second straight Brisnet triple-digit late pace figure. So nothing seemed to make sense when it comes to his performance in the Juvenile, in which he didn’t run horribly, finishing only 1 ¾ lengths behind Locked, he just never showed any closing kick. He was given some down time and we can only wait and see which Timberlake shows up when he makes his 3-year-old debut. There are no potential world beaters who belong ahead of him based on past class, so we’ll just keep ranking him prominently until he tells us not to and to stop drooling over his dam’s pedigree.
5—Honor Marie (Whit Beckman, Honor Code – Dame Marie, by Smart Strike)
With so many horses who have been ranked in the top 12 heading for the Risen Star Stakes February 17 there no doubt will be a major shake-up after that race. But they all have to beat this guy, who continues to train well for Beckman, who has been around a lot of top-class horses working for Todd Pletcher and Chad Brown. So when Beckman says this is “a heckuva horse and his works have been just that,” I believe him, especially based on what I have seen in his races. As we mentioned last week he has a number of classy European milers in his female family and has already shown that European turn of foot. Beckman said he has always acted like a turf horse who “just happens to be highly capable on dirt. And his turn of foot on dirt is incredible.” And remember that horses who have run big in turf races have always done well on the Churchill Downs dirt track. We’ll just mention names like Barbaro, Animal Kingdom, Dullahan, and Paddy O’Prado who were all proven on turf and won or placed In the Kentucky Derby. Beckman said Honor Marie, who breezed five furlongs in 1:01 3/5, is “developing the right way and is bigger and stronger than he was three months ago,” which makes sense considering he is a May 4 foal and won’t actually turn 3 until Derby Day.
6—Dornoch (Danny Gargan, Good Magic – Puca, by Big Brown)
He turned in a half-mile work in :49 at Palm Meadows, fastest of the six works at the distance. We have seen what this colt is capable of, with two strong seconds followed by two victories, one in a romp and one coming back gamely from sure defeat to win. But we have also seen him get bumped several times, once at the start and once later in the race; we have seen him have to come from six-wide; we have see him draw off in the stretch despite refusing to change leads; we have see him battle head and head the whole way going 1 1/8 miles; and we have seen him bounce off the rail and lose his lead and then change leads and battle back to win right on the wire after getting passed by a good half-length by Sierra Leone. As we have mentioned before, he has run four races at four different tracks at four different distances from 6 ½ furlongs to 1 1/8 miles, and on fast, muddy, and sloppy tracks. It’s as if he has experienced an entire career in those four races. He’s also had 14 works since July and turned in back-to-back bullet works at the Saratoga meet, one on the main track and one on the training track. His half-mile work in :46 2/5 back in July was the fastest of 119 works at the distance. You have to admire a horse like this, who certainly keeps life interesting for Danny Gargan, but after what we’ve seen on the track you also have to wonder what he’s going to get himself into next.
7—Mystik Dan (Kenny McPeek, Goldencents – Ma’am by Colonel John)
Looking at Mystik Dan’s past performances before the Southwest Stakes it was easy to dismiss him based on several reasons. He earned a super 95 Beyer speed figure in his 7 ¾-length maiden victory going 5 ½ furlongs, run in a blistering 1:03 1/5 and then regressed badly to a 64 Beyer when fifth stretching out to a mile and tiring badly in the stretch. He tired again in the Smarty Jones Stakes, but did earn a respectable 82 Beyer. However, the Smarty Joes was a slowly run race on Thoro-Graph. So how does this colt then come back and look like Flightline demolishing a deep field by eight lengths in the Southwest while coming home his fourth quarter in :24 2/5 and then draw off with a final sixteenth in under :06…:05.93 to be exact? We rarely will see a 3-year-old come home that fast. What happened? Well, McPeek admitted to the owners that bringing him back in only two weeks off his blazing maiden win and stretching him out a mile was a mistake. The colt had backed off his feed before the race. They took blood on him and he was fine, so they went ahead and ran him and he tired after pressing the pace. It was discovered he came out of the race with a lung infection. He didn’t work for a month and went into the Smarty Jones a short horse with only a slow half-mile and three-furlong breeze in 36 days. After the Smarty Jones McPeek gave him long gallops and trained him behind horses and taught him how to go along steadily and stalk and then finish strong the last three furlongs. He seemed to have figured it all and could now control his speed. When McPeek saw him in the paddock before the Southwest and he was acting like an old pony he knew this was a different horse. After his spectacular victory, earning a 101 Beyer, he will now pass the Rebel and wait for the Arkansas Derby.
8—Hall of Fame (Steve Asmussen, Gun Runner – Flag Day, by Giant’s Causeway)
It’s difficult separating him from his future Risen Star entrymate Track Phantom except to say he seems to have a bit more pop and upside, while Track Phantom is the more experienced of the two with a pair of stakes victories already. Hall of Fame, as mentioned, had the edge in numbers when the two ran on the same card and he has shown a big upward move by leaping from a 12 ½ Thoro-Graph number to a 5 in his 10 ¼ -length maiden score. He has a strong pedigree top and bottom, especially with his close-up 3 x 2 inbreeding to Giant’s Causeway, Gun Runner’s inbreeding to Fappiano, and his dam, Flag Day, being out of a Street Sense mare and tracing to Canadian Triple Crown winner Peteski. So with distance not a question he only has to show that maiden victory was for real and that he can come back and compete with what likely will be the toughest field of the year going a mile and a eighth.
9—Track Phantom (Steve Asmussen, Quality Road – Miss Sunset, by Into Mischief)
There isn’t a lot more to say about him other than he has put together two visually impressive stakes victories, which no one else can claim. But the emphasis is on visually as he hasn’t been able to break clear of his string of mediocre Thoro-Graph numbers ranging from a 5 to a 7 following a pair of 9’s. And he did regress slightly from a 5 to a 6 in the LeComte Stakes. None of these are poor numbers, but he just needs to take that big step forward to compete with the horses who have run much faster. He did defeat Snead, who we are high on, in the Gun Runner Stakes, but the latter has been on an upward trend, improving his Thoro-Graph numbers with every start. We’re into February now and it’s time to make a significant move forward. That is the only reason why we don’t have him ranked higher, because you have to like most everything else about him as a racehorse. His sire and broodmare sire are two of the hottest commodities at the sale, but the bottom part of his pedigree is extremely questionable. The only stakes filly in his tail-female family is his dam, who was a top-class sprinter. Regardless of whether you feel he is a serious Derby contender or not, we should know for sure after the Risen Star.
10—Liberal Arts (Robbie Medina, Arrogate, Ismeme, by Tribal Rule)
I am actually moving him up a spot into the Top 10 because the Southwest Stakes was the only race to excite me due to the winner’s monster performance and I thought this was a very good first start back since October and having nothing but short works at The Thoroughbred Center in Lexington and then shipping down to Oaklawn. No one was going to touch the winner who ran out of his skull. But in an 11-horse field and having to rally from ninth off a 1:13 1/5 opening three-quarters and into the fastest closing fractions of any Derby prep this year he did quite well by making more than three lengths on runner-up Just Steel in the final furlong. And Just Steel, who had the fastest Thoro-Graph number (2 ½) of any horse in the field, actually looked like a winner turning for home before that explosive run up the rail by the winner. Liberal Arts not only made up all that ground on him he missed second by a neck and finished a whopping nine lengths ahead of the third-place finisher. Assuming he remains in the next Future Wager field, that is the time to bet him at what promises to be a huge price.
11—Snead (Brendan Walsh, Nyquist – Raffle Ticket, by A.P. Indy)
Because of the unusually large number of previously ranked horses (seven of the 15) all headed for a major showdown in the Risen Star Stakes, and with the Kentucky Derby a lot more wide-open than it was before this past weekend, it seems a study in futility to keep expounding on the virtues of all of them when everything is going change dramatically after the Risen Star, especially with so little separating the big horses pointing for the race. So we will continue the rankings without going over the same material and analysis every week ad try to keep the comments at a minimum. Like with Track Phantom, Honor Marie, and so many others, Snead is in a wait and see mode until all these contenders who have made the top 15 sort themselves out. With him it is mainly about his impressive turn of foot, especially around the turn, and the steady improvement of is speed figures to go along with a classic pedigree. He has seven champions, all Hall of Famers, in his female family alone. I still believe he could be the big Future Wager overlay, even bet down at the end from 89-1 to 69-1.
12—Catching Freedom (Brad Cox, Constitution, Catch My Drift, by Pioneerof the Nile)
I had him ranked No. 13 mainly because the Smarty Jones’ speed figures came up so slow. He still has improving to do, but after what we saw in the Southwest Stakes you can forget those Smarty Jones speed figures. Not only did the victorious Mystik Dan run an outrageous 101 Beyer figure winning by eight lengths, but the Smarty Jones runner-up Just Steel ran a big race and looked like a winner at the top of the stretch. So with that in mind, another look at Catching Freedom’s three-race career, two of them were victories and in his fourth-place finish, he had a lot of trouble in the final furlong and was beaten by Parchment Party, who was ranked very high before he was sidelined. Catching Freedom worked five furlongs for the first time in a solid 1:01 2/5 and now has to be taken very seriously in the Risen Star, which will be a make-or-break race for a lot of good horses.
13—Hades (Joe Orseno, Awesome Slew – The Shady Lady, by Quality Road)
You normally don’t see an undefeated horse who just upset the 2-year-champ and overwhelming early favorite for the Kentucky Derby at No. 13, but I’m just not sure we learned anything from the Holy Bull Stakes, considering the question marks regarding the competitiveness of Fierceness when he faces adversity and a ridiculously slow pace and slow closing fractions that made this race a total enigma and one in which you can make no conclusions or get a true grasp of any of the participants. On a day when they were running :45 and change and :46 halfs and 1:10 and change for six furlongs, how could such a brilliant horse like Fierceness and the others run fractions of :50 2/5 and 1:14 1/5. Gulfstream has had a history of weird teletimer issues, so I’m still not what to believe. But for now the bottom line is that Hades is undefeated and has quite a big notch on his gun. He is still green, however, blowing the final turn and forcing Fierceness and especially Domestic Product out toward the middle of the track. Hades’ rider, Paco Lopez, had to pull hard on the right rein to get him back in and straighten him out. He continued running with his head cocked to the right and drifting out again. To his credit he was able to put the champ away and hold off Domestic Product, but his initial Beyer figure of 84 was something you would expect in an ordinary maiden race. But that has since been bumped up to a 90. That premature 84 when this was first posted probably cost him a few spots in the Rankings. So once again we are bewildered what to make of this race and will put it on hold for now. But we do want to congratulate Joe Orseno, who was once one of the premiere trainers in the country, but more on him next week.
14—Conquest Warrior (Shug McGaughey, City of Light – Tea Time, by Pulpit)
It probably makes more sense putting his stablemate Change of Command here, considering he may now be the horse to beat in Saturday’s Sam F. Davis Stakes with the defection of Locked and a rather thin field expected, at least as of Sunday. But I still believe in this colt’s ability and high ceiling even though he has won only a maiden sprint and looks to be headed for an allowance race at the end of the month. You know McGaughey is not going to rush him to make the Derby and he will need a huge performance in his final 100-point prep to make the Derby, so the odds seem stacked against him. But I don’t see any of the other 3-year-olds making a solid case to displace him at this point. So we’ll keep him here at least this week and see what develops. Remember, a lot of the horses in the Top 15 who are running in the Risen Star will no longer be in the Top 15 after the race.
15—Real Men Violin (Kenny McPeek, Mendelssohn – Meg Fitz, by Tapit)
Kenny McPeek is really getting him sharp for his first start since the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, working him five furlongs in a bullet :59 3/5, fastest of 31 works at the distance, in company with his brilliant Mitole filly V V’s Dream, winner of the Pocahontas Stakes and second in the Alcibiades. Let’s remember, this colt was second to Honor Marie and defeated Track Phantom. He still has to get faster, but nothing is really making much sense this year when it comes to speed figures or anything else for that matter. For those who missed it last week, we’ll remind everyone that Real Men Violin’s dam Meg Fitz, a daughter of Tapit, who sired four Belmont Stakes winners, is a half-sister to 2009 Kentucky Derby favorite I Want Revenge, the Wood Memorial and Gotham winner who was scratched the morning of the Derby. Real Men Violin has six races under his belt and every one of them was at a mile or farther on fast, muddy, and sloppy tracks and on turf, and he has never finished out of the money.
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR
Chad Brown keeps popping up in the Derby picture with new faces and now you have to pay attention to DOMESTIC PRODUCT, who seems to have made great progress from 2 to 3 and came within a hair of getting ranked. I just had no one to take off, so consider him No. 15A. If you throw out his poor effort in the Remsen and just blame the sloppy track, and if you throw out his career debut going six furlongs, there might be enough left over to suggest that perhaps he can turn into a serious horse. Brown was willing to bring him back against the almighty Fierceness in the Holy Bull and removed his blinkers, and he had to be pleased with a second-place finish and finishing ahead of the champ. But in my opinion he could have won that race.
First off, coming off a layoff and with a series of snappy half-mile works over the deeper Payson Park surface, he was sharp for his return. But with the crazy slow fractions of the race and him being down on the inside behind horses it was all Tyler Gaffalione could do to throttle him down by tugging back on the reins. He finally was able to get a clear run on the rail, but Gaffalione decided to get him to the outside. When he did, Hades blew the turn and forced out Fierceness, who in turn forced Domestic Product way out to the middle of the track. I know they came home slow despite the slow pace and the race got a very slow Beyer, but I love the way he was striding out in the final furlong, and I believe if he stays on the rail he cuts the corner all by himself and would have had a great shot to charge to the lead while Hades was still busy goofing off. Remember, this colt broke his maiden by 4 1/2 lengths going 1 1/8 miles in a solid 1:50 4/5, so let’s see if he can build off that race and the Holy Bull.
I was really looking forward to seeing BORN NOBLE tackle some other serious late developers and thrust himself into the Derby picture. Sent off at 2-5, once he took on the speedy MERIT from the start and the pair got away with a :24 1/5 opening quarter I figured this would be a match race that would take both colts at least to the top of the stretch before one asserted himself. Then they really picked it up with a :22 3/5 second quarter and even a sharp :23 4/5 third quarter. They were still at each other’s throat until Born Noble began to inch away nearing the top of the stretch, with only one horse, REAL MACHO, within radar rage, but with still a lot of ground to make up. Born Noble opened a clear lead after turning for home, but it was apparent by the way he was trying to lug in that he was getting tired. Real Macho, taking advantage of the slow :26 4/5 final quarter, kept coming and gave a final surge near the wire to win by a neck in 1:37 2/5 for the mile, with Born Noble 5 ¼ lengths ahead of Merit. Born Noble now has to figure out how to move forward off this race.
Back in 2011, Dean Reeves and his wife Patti bought into a 2-year-old colt after his first start named Mucho Macho Man. After three straight defeats Dean started having second thoughts about his decision. He discussed the possibility of taking the blinkers off the colt for the Risen Star Stakes with trainer Kathy Ritvo, who agreed to give it a try. Well, Mucho Macho Man won the Risen Star and two races later finished third in the Kentucky Derby before going on to win a number of big stakes, including the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Fast forward to 2023 and Reeves buys into a 2-year-old colt named Real Mucho, a son of Mucho Macho Man, after he broke his maiden in his second start. After the colt finishes a well-beaten fifth in his next start, Reeves again has second thoughts about his decision. So once again he discusses the possibility of taking the blinkers off the colt with trainer and co-owner Rohan Crichton, who agrees to give it a try. And, yes, once again the decision results in a victory. So far, history has repeated itself for Reeves. Now let’s see how far Real Macho can take him.
Catching up on other races this past weekend, the mile and an eighth Withers Stakes at Aqueduct did not draw a strong field, and when the consistent and fast New York-bred EL GRANDE O, who was battling on the lead early with two horses, put away the Todd Pletcher-trained KHANATE and opened a three-length lead at the eighth pole, it looked pretty much over. But here came the Robert Reid-trained Parx shipper UNCLE HEAVY, who cut into El Grande O’s lead with every step and nailed him right on the wire with a decent enough final eighth in :12 4/5. Of course, as is always the case at Aqueduct, the final time was a slow 1:53 3/5, so there really isn’t much you can make of the race until we see if these horses can make their presence felt in the Wood Memorial against far better competition.
We didn’t learn anything from the former Parx-trained colt FRANKIE’S EMPIRE’s 3 ½-length victory in the seven-furlong Swale Stakes at 14-1 with the 4-5 favorite LEGALIZE finishing last. So we’ll just watch the winner as he moves forward in sprint or mile races for his new trainer Michael Yates.
As I mentioned earlier, with Locked out of Saturday’s Sam F. Davis Stakes it looks as if CHANGE OF COMMAND is sitting in a great spot to get his first stakes victory and win his third consecutive race for Shug McGaughey. But we’ll see if any new faces show up now that this race looks a lot more winnable. Change of Command looks to be very versatile, winning by 6 ½ lengths going seven furlongs and winning in a gutsy stretch battle by a neck going 1 1/16 miles. If he can get by this race in impressive fashion and improve his Thoro-Graph numbers significantly, which he will have to, then we’ll start ranking him with the top contenders.
Returning to Chad Brown and TUSCAN GOLD, don’t dismiss this colt as a Chad Brown second or third stringer, as he was always highly regarded in the barn and wasn’t able to show his best in his debut. But in his second career start, his first going two turns and getting Lasix he was ridden more aggressively by new jockey Tyler Gaffalione, who began riding him hard on the turn to put pressure on the Todd Pletcher even-money favorite Skip the Line. He quickly put away the favorite and drew off to win by 6 ¼ lengths despite the short stretch and going so wide into the first turn. And this time Gaffalione kept riding him to the wire. So we know he can be pushed early and still get stronger down the stretch. He also showed a lot of professionalism, running perfectly straight to the wire. He is big striding colt but has a smooth way of going. He is by Medaglia d’Oro, out of a Curlin mare and is a complete outcross, but it must be noted the bottom of his pedigree is not that strong, with a lot of speed influences. All in all, however, from what I’ve seen he definitely is one to watch.
With the success of horses coming off Turfway’s synthetic surface, we have to keep an eye on the Blame colt EPIC RIDE, impressive winner of the Leonatus Stakes, who has now put together two staight big efforts
P.S. NYSOS won the Robert Lewis Stakes looking once again like a potential superstar who should be peaking on the first Saturday in May. Oops, I meant the third Saturday in May. Sorry, force of habit.
Too early to place Resilience even in the top 20.
He basically ran the same numbers as he did in his race Nash and Stronghold, was way too far behind Locked
Will Steve take Snead out of the ranking?
If so…who will filling that slot?
I bet Steve will be including Resilience somewhere among the top 15 …
Track Phantom worked yesterday an easy 4 furlongs in 50 seconds flat (27/43) at Fair Grounds… I expected a final drill since his previous work was on February 3.
The same for Awesome Ruta who also worked yesterday at Fair Grounds clocking an eyecatching 59.80 (1/14) for 5 furlongs .. this was 10-day apart from his previous workout.
Resilience worked today at Payson 4F in 49 (3/9)
I was also waiting for a final tuning for Hall of Fame following a 5F-breeze on Februay 3 but it has not happened yet… anyway, Asmussen should have them ready for a good performance for the decisive 50 points of the Risen Star…
The Risen Star is primed to be the best Derby prep to date…
Fair Grounds, this Saturday- Race 7. an interesting bunch of ‘likely lads’ for the future. I’m keen on the Stonestreet owned/bred Constitution colt Mister Lincoln. Same family as Pauline’s Pearl. Only a 6f race but the promise should be evident enough. Asmussen trained with Joel Rosario aboard.
BEE DANCER:
Whilst reviewing surprising Risen Star entrant Bee Dancer. I did some research to determine if a next out debut winner has ever won the stake. Unless my research is inaccurate. There has never been a winner a RS winner with the status of a 2nd out debut winner.
The obvious question has to be. Why would the connections of Bee Dancer, 3 days shy of a moth between starts, take a shot in extremely competitive renewal of the Risen Star over a distance 3F longer than the colt’s debut?
The simple answer could just be. It’s Dallas Stewart! The same trainer who if either Orb or California Chrom had stumbled close to the finish line, would have won the KD with Golden Soul (34/1) and Commanding Curve (37/1). Both KD entrants had only one win recorded in a MSW.
Given Dallas Steward’s propensity for delivering big upsets. Is it prudent to ignore this well-bred colt? What’s in the pedigree of package of Bee Daner?
His sire Bee Jersey has to be considered a top-class miler. In fact, his last four career starts which resulted in victories were over 8F. His career culminating with a gate to wire win in the Met Mile in 1:33.13. So, there is an abundance of speed on top.
His dam sire Sea the Stars was the winner of the Epsom Derby, Arc and was a HOTY., There should be stamina at the bottom
On debut Bee Dancer assumed the lead before 1/2F was completed but was quickly relegated 2nd, then to 4th approaching the turn for home. He rallied in the stretch whilst bullying his way through opponents and sustained his gallop to the line to record a final time of 1:10.92.
The stride turnover rate displayed by the colt suggests he isn’t a sprinter but rather classy sort capable of being forwardly place and close to just about any pace. This colt has clearly inherited some of its sire speed. If he has also inherited some of the class and stamina of his dam sire, He could emerge as a serious KD contender.
There Is something we do know. i.e., the colt has top class speed. The known unknowns is his stamina to carry said speed. It’s impossible to accurately assess a horse’s capabilities in one or even several starts. Pedigree doesn’t always translate to potential.
Given Dallas Stewart propensity to send forth horses that outperform their PPs. I am going to including this colt in my exotic wagers and even a token win bet just in case.
Hey Counter Point
Your points are well taken, however when you consider Bee Dancer was put up for auction by owner/breeder Charles E. Fipke, with a reserve sale price of $14,000, but “Reserve Not Attained”, it sends up a red flag, IMO.
Another colt that concerns me, relative to the sale price, is Honor Marie who sold for $40,000, which is relatively low versus other top colts in the Risen Star field. Initially, Honor Marie was going to be my pick in the Risen Star. but I’ve backed off on him and will look elsewhere. Currently, I like the two Gun Runner colts, Sierra Leone and Hall of Fame.
Barring unforeseen negative issues that may develop in the next few days, I’ll key Sierra Leone and HOF on top in the first two slots, with Catching Freedom, Track Phantom, Honor Marie, Real Men Violin, Resilience and Bee Dancer in the 3rd and 4th slots in my superfecta wager. Cost: $60.00
I suspect Bee Dancer will be one of the longshots in the Risen Star field, around 20-1, would be my guess.
Based on your positive input on Bee Dancer, and with the possibility that he might hit the board to round out the superfecta, I threw him in there.
BTW, I’m still mystified by the similarity of your posts and those of Coldfacts. 🙂
My take on the 6th race at SA yesterday. I think the track was playing a “dull” fast yesterday probably due to heavy rain SA had earlier in the week. Both Maymun and Imagination ran a hell of a race yesterday and both will benefit greatly from it. Maymun showed a lot of grittiness (as Gary pointed out earlier ) coming back after being passed up in the deep stretch. I thought Imagination had him beat when he passed him. I agree with Nelson I think they both can make 1 1/8 miles but to make 1 1/4 miles I think both will need to learn to rate unless they meet a weak field like they did today. Now were Baffert takes them from here is the question??? BTW were is Muth?
You maybe right.
I do my own figures and have done well, I won’t go into the results of my bets which were posted on the 2023 derby and BC bets on another site and I can say the same for many TC weeks.
Although I can incorporate sprints into all figures involving route races, I tend to evaluate routes with only route races.
Yesterday there was only one route race at SA, so I went back and evaluated yesterdays races with Saturdays route races(there were 2). Hence there is a question mark. Maymun’s numbers were low compared to his race before yesterdays one. I may go back and try to do them with sprints, but doing that I know from experience, the final times may match, but the problem comes in the pace of the race.
Ms Blacktype, I too thought the Beyers would better for No More Time but when I went back and looked at the race several times and to me he seems to be shortening stride badly. I bet he was one tired horse this morning. Not sure now
he can make 1 1/4 with that kind of pace. Except for Agate Road it doesn’t say much for the rest of this field
I’ll watch the replay, Downie. What impressed me is that he was on the lead the whole way, and appeared to stride out at the top of the stretch. He is inbred top and bottom to Secretariat.
I’m surprised of Patriot Spirit in that race. He was not involved in it at any time be it early or late. Need to check the head on in the replays.
Just went back and watched both the head-on and pan shot of the race.
Patriot Spirit broke about a neck slow. Rider tried to find a way to get to the front many times, but came up against stop signs. He tried to find some room till the middle of the 2nd turn and then threw in the towel.
I love Jim Nantz, but—-“Jackpot Kansas City” is a “Larry Collmus Special”!..
They’re in Vegas, home of jackpots.
While this question has nothing to do with the cause of Jess’ Dream’s death, do you think his very abbreviated racing career had to do balance issues (maybe I’m very wrong) caused by having a dad who was so much bigger than his dam? Rachel Alexandra had lots of trouble giving birth to such a huge foal, from what I understand, so perhaps he was top-heavy or had other structural issues. If that’s the case, it’s unfortunate that people were still willing to breed to him, given he could only manage one start.
In a way I tend to agree with you. They never were clear on what prevented him from running more races.
Inside post for Maymun hurts, as he tries to motor down the 1st turn.
Having said that, this race did not impress me as much as his previous race from speed figures, but he did show what Dornoch showed and that is guts to fight back.
Maymun wins but showed more inexperience than in his initial start. It was good that he fought back to win, again, he looks more a miler than a 10f horse as he wants to rush things. Even so, we are looking at a colt that is being moulded into a racehorse so it will take time.
Davids he actually looks like Flightline, in his motion….by a son of Tapit out of an Indian Charlie mare….
Matthew, Flightline had such a fluent action, it never faltered. Maymun has a fluid action as well but we are seeing Maymun earlier than we saw Flightline. Mind you, I have to concede to your evaluation as you actually saw Flightline in the flesh. I only saw Flightline through the internet. That impression left an indelible mark.
The way his head is angled, he’s closely related and does remind me of him
.
In looks, that is,
How good Imagination is should settle a few things, after all it was over 10 lengths to the third horse.
Maymun impressed me more today than he did in his debut.
He did not manage the first turn but was very professional and gritty when pushed by Imagination.
I believe he can win any of the 1 1/8- mile Stakes in the horizon…
You may be right, Nelson. However, with that running style Maymun had better be as good as Flightline to remain undefeated. I realize his new trainer will be trying very hard to remedy the early ‘training’ Maymun learnt to impress at the sales.
Maymun would enjoy a straight mile course, like Ascot.
Speaking of Royal Ascot—I understand John Sadler will be bringing Missed the Cut over the pond for the premier English meet….
Kenny McPeek often enters at Royal Ascot as well. The Australians usually bring their crack sprinters as well, and win. Hopefully, King Charles III will be fully recovered by then to watch the races. Always, a great Festival of racing.
Yesterday, 2-10, Valentine Candy won the Ozark Stakes, going 6F, in 1:10.32 drawing off by 2 1/2 lengths. In seven career starts he’s won three stakes’ races in a row, all at sprint distances. His pedigree reflects a substantial amount of class and stamina on his dam side, so I’m wondering why Steve Asmussen has yet to stretch him out beyond 6 furlongs.
By Justify, out of a Candy Ride mare, it appears that Valentine Candy is not on the Derby trail. However, there’s still time to test him around two turns, but that’s up to Asmussen. Whatever the case, Valintine Candy appears to be a very talented colt moving forward.
The same ownership has Booth who also won today at Oaklawn with ease… seems like they want to keep both of them sprinting.
But you are right about Valentine Candy having a good dose of stamina from his dam side…Candy Ride, A.P. Indy and Irish Tower are great source of staying power…
What is your take on Maymun’s performance today?
I missed the race, my focus was on the Super Bowl today. Once again, the Magic Man (Partrick Mahomes) pulled out a win for the Chiefs.
I’ll take a look at the race tomorrow on U-Tube.
HONOR MARIE:
My reasons for selecting not to use the entrant in my top spot in the Risen Star are listed below. This should not be viewed any attempt get anyone off this entrant. I previously suggest that Fierceness was a bet against in the Holy Bull. I am making no such claim regarding the Honor Code colt.
It should never be forgotten that prep race analysis and projections, rarely if ever can be reconciled with post-race results. Every one that places a wager has the possibility of emerging a winner before a race in run.
Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes fractions of 23.70; 48.45; 1:13.40; 1:38.01; 1:44.31 are not considered fast for a graded stake over 8 1/2F. Those are modest fractions. Without significant improvement it is unlikely Honor Marie can emerge the winner of the Risen Star. Why?
The high-water mark for the stake is Super Saver’s stakes record of 1:42.83, recorded in 2009. The average final time for the KJC is about 1:44 plus, with the more talented 2YOs recording times of 1:42 to 1:43. To indicate how modest the fractions in the KJCS were. Take a look at the fraction of an AOC over 8F which was contested 3 races earlier.
AOC – 22.44; 46.5; 1:11.22, 1:37.98
KJC – 23.70; 48.45; 1:13.40; 1:38.01; 1:44.3
I am aware I am comparing the fractions of an 8F and an 8 1/2F race. But when the 6F fraction in a graded stake in 1:13. 40. The top 2 entrants in the AOC would have been competitive in the KJC. To indicate why the comparison bears merit. Three horses from the AOC have returned to win, with 2 of those wins being in stakes. See below:
Bergen (2nd by 1 14L) – Won the Jimmy Winkfield Stakes (Balck Type) paid $3.40.
Mystic Dan (5th by 8L) – Won Southwest Stakes (G3) paid $24.80.
Vitement (8th by 18 3/4) Won next out over 5 1/2F at the FG; 3rd Ozark Stakes (Black Type)
NOTEABLE:
Informed Patriot (3rd by 1 34L) Next out 3rd by 2 3/4L in Smarty Jones won by Catching Freedom.
REMSEN vs KJC/LEMONTE
Lecomte Fractions – 24.01; 48.36; 1:13.15; 1:38.01; 1:44.73
Kentucky/JC———23.70; 48.45; 1:13.40; 1:38.01; 1:44.31
Remsen————- 23.09;46.97; 1:11.56; 1:37.92 –
Sierra Leone trailed by 12L on speed bias surface; was 7W at the top of the stretch; drifted to the rails and lost by nose.
Sierra Leone MSW– 23.09;46.97; 1:11.80; 1:3.94. Now that was a 1turn Mile. But SL gave up ground at the start, was 4W at top of the stretch and won in hand.
In Sierra Leone’s 2 starts the fractions recorded were significantly faster than those recorded in the KJC and Lecomte. Sierra Leone has not experienced a problem free trip to date as detailed above. Both Honor Marie and Track Phantom have won with problem free trips, and both have won in modest times and slower than those recorded by SL.
The entrant I fear the most of delivering a spectacular performance that runs counter to is PPs is the Todd Pletcher trained Moonlight. I have receipts on TP which reflect that these are the types of moments in which an entrant must be viewed as dangerous as its trainer.
Moonlight isn’t exiting a race in which he was defeated by 20L. We all saw what that one did next out. In fact, he ran a sneakily good race in the Remsen. His resume also reflects a 2nd place finish in the Street Sense to the #10 ranked Liberal Arts. He was also defeated by the #4 and 6th ranked Sierra Leaon and Dornoch. How many in the field have finished behind so many ranked entrants?
Another way of looking at it is …those were SLOW fractions, and he was in last—there’s no way he should have finished in front but he did, and he did it with a big finish ..
A few thoughts on Super Bowl 58.
The outcome of the game could very well be decided on which team has the ball last. The 49’ers and Chiefs appear to be evenly matched on offence, defense and special teams. In which case, it will probably come down to which head coach does the best job of managing the game. Clearly, the Chiefs head coach, Andy Reed, gets the check mark there.
That said, I’ll take the Chiefs +1.5 and the over, 47.5.
Enjoy the Super Bowl, folks.
Revised Statute scratched from that SA allowance race. Thought that was a bit to ask a first time starter against winners now I still wonder if Baffert will still run both of his against each other ???
This aged very well. Congrats
Pretty impressive win by Not This Time in the Sam Davis. Fractions were legit. Only time will tell if he can hold it for 1 1/4. but was a nice wi n
The son of Not This Time … No More Time
Right, they look so much like each other (LOL)
I thought so too, Downthestretch. Time & fractions looked good, but the winning Beyer was only 80. I anticipated an 88. Maybe this will be another one that gets modified after the initial posting.
The pace was fast 2.75 @half mile pole, slow .75 @ 3/4 pole and slow 3/4 at finish (approx numbers).
That is just about average for that race. Later on he will face more speed.
For now for me he is a toss.
He ran the 1st half a bit fast then it was just average. After the 1st half, he got a slight breather.
When Change of Command who was not high on my numbers faded so badly and a horse was not rated that much on dirt(his 2nd in the BC Juv Turf was puzzling after looking at his last race) came from 10.75L @ half mile pole to place 2nd. There is a lot of questions on this race.
Track Phantom drew not so well, but may still run well, will be hard to wire the field though. I don’t get the support for Sierra Leone.
I am happy for Venezuelan young trainer José Francisco D’Angelo and his Derby hopeful No More Time. The son of Not This Time was so outstanding training at Palm Meadows that was made the 3-1 favorite in the Sam F. Davis. I hope they continue succeding in the Tampa route to the Derby.
J. F. D’Angelo who became the winningest Venezuelan trainer in America in a single year in 2023 started enjoying more opportunities after doing a great job with Jesus’ Team back in 2021.
He is taking Bentornato to Saudi Arabia to compete in the $1.5-million Saudi Derby on February 24. Good luck to the promising trainer.
Not This Time is keeping his relevance as a Derby sire after the outstanding performances of his sons Epicenter and Simplification in 2022… BTW super stallion Giant’s Causeway is leading the Sam F. Davis breeding stats with wins by 3 of his sons and now one paternal grandson.
Great ride by Paco López. The 2008 Eclipse apprentice Jockey, whose trademarks are boldness and effectiveness, has won the last two Stakes with Derby qualifying points in Florida.
an underrated jockey indeed…
There was a fun interview with Jose Francisco D’Angelo after the race on America’s Day at the Races. Seems like a very nice chap. Good for him.
Thanks Nelson for your assessment of Paco Lopez and trainer D’Angelo. Paco is no pushover at Gulfstream Park and does well again the all stars assemblage of jockeys at Gulfstream Park.He is riding again Eclipse award winning and one Hall of Fame Jockey at the Gulf.
Dale Romans said that winning in an allowance race at the Gulf is like winning a Stakes race elsewhere.
The post positions have been drawn for the Risen Star Stakes. They are as follows:
1) Tizzy Indy (James Graham)
2) Awesome Ruta (Mitchell Murrill)
3) Honor Marie (Rafael Bejarano)
4) Sierra Leone (Tyler Gaffalione)
5) Moonlight (Florent Geroux)
6) Real Men Violin (Brian Hernandez, Jr.)
7) Hall of Fame (Ricardo Santana, Jr.)
8) Catching Freedom (Luis Saez)
9) Cardinale (Flavien Prat)
10) Resilience (John Velazquez)
11) Track Phantom (Joel Rosario)
12) Bee Dancer (Corey Lanerie)
The top 5 horses appear to be:
Honor Marie, 1st in the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club, with a strong closing kick, (late pace figure of 102, highest in the field.
Sierra Lione, 2nd in the G2 Remsen, beaten a nose by Dornoch. Displayed a huge closing kick, late pace figure of 98.
Real Men Violin, 2nd in the G2 KJC, never out of the money in six career starts.
Catching Freedom, 1st in the Smarty Jones, by hot sire Constitution.
Track Phantom, 1st in the G3 Lecomte Stakes. Undefeated in his last three.
Honor Marie will be my pick to win the Risen Star Stakes.
Upset pick: Hall of Fame
Safe trips to all.
It’s interesting to note what those five colts sold for at auction:
Sierra Leone, $2.3 million.
Catching Freedom, $575K.
Track Phantom, $500K.
Real Men Violin, $100K.
Honor Marie, sold at the bargain basement price of $40K (talk about a diamond in the rough).
BTW, my upset pick in the Risen Star, Hall of Fame, sold for $1.4 million, which means there’s been high expectations from the get-go.
The pace will be moderate which may benefit Hall of Fame and Track Phantom.
The blinkers could help Sierra Leone to be close to the early pace … if he is too separated from the field initially (as he did in the Remsen) it would be harder to close on the homestretch leaders.
The Risen Star has been a good source of Derby horses the last 3 years…
My contention is that the ranking leaders will come out from this prep for the Louisiana Derby…!
The following are the last workouts of the Risen Star participants
PP Horse/Last Workout
1 Tizzy Indy, Fair Grounds, Feb 10, 5F 1:00.80, 15/45
2 Awesom Ruta*, Fair Grounds, Feb 1, 5F 48.80, 18/73
3 Honor Marie*, Fair Grounds, Feb 5, 5F 1:01.00, 7/24
4 Sierra Leone, Payson, Feb 10, 4F 49.20, 10/56
5 Moonlight, Palm Beach, Feb 10, 4F 48.09, 2/21
6 Real Men Violin, Fair Grounds, Feb 10, 4F 49.00, 41/118
7 Hall of Fame*, Fair Grounds, Feb 3, 5F 1:01.00, 5/34
8 Catching Freedom, Fair Grounds, Feb 10, 5F 1:00.00, 6/45
9 Cardinale , Palm Beach, Feb 10, 4F 48.95, 6/21
10 Resilience*, Payson, Feb 5, 5F 1:03.20, 3/4
11 Track Phantom*, Fair Grounds, Feb 3, 5F 1:01.00, 5/34
12 Bee Dancer, Fair Grounds, Feb 10, 5F 1:00.80, 15/45
Who do you like, Nelson?
I like your upset pick Hall of Fame … He will among the top 3 betting choices … won’t be too upsetting proposition in my estimation.
Others to consider in the bets are Track Phantom, Real Men Violin, Honor Marie and Sierra Leone.
After breaking his maiden at first asking, Tuscan Sky will stretch out in an 8.5F, $100K AOC race on the Risen Star undercard. Trained by Todd Pletcher, TS went 6 furlongs in 1:10.51, drawing off by 5 1/4 lengths, over a track listed as muddy. His Brisnet and Equibase Speed Figures for that maiden win were identical, (97).
By Vino Rosso, out of a Sky Mesa mare, he has inbreeding to Mr. Prospector on top, and on the bottom of his very impressive pedigree. If Tuscan Sky performs well, I suspect Mr. Pletcher will point him to a Derby prep race down the road.
Nash has been entered in the race as well and should be Tuscan Sky’s main competition, IMO.
RE: Fair Grounds, Race #3, Post Time; 1:58 local time.
Thanks for the information Bill.
I see Monlight crossentered in that 3rd FG race(with Johny V up at first time Lasix) and in the Risen Star with Florent Geroux (and no Lasix).
The Allowance will be a confidence builder for Nash with no Track Phantom now …
I’m anxious to see the morning line odds on both races, (R3 and R14).
HoF will not be an upset. He will be one of the fav. and well bet
From what I hear. ..Hall of Fame could get support….
No More Time jumped up and surprised me. I think we saw an emerging player today. Something clearly is not right with Change of Command, and although Everdoit walked off, I did not enjoy seeing him break through that rail. Fingers crossed and prayers said that both horses are OK.
Thorograph gave out No More Time on their show….but they didn’t like Agate Road so their three exactas were losers …I had the exacta but my third horse Copper Tax didn’t fire, methinks those long works removed his natural speed, as I learned FIFTY years ago…when Kieth Stuki put long works into Ancient Title —-you cannot train stamina into a horse, stamina is natural, they either have it or they don’t….when I saw how far behind he was I pretty much knew Copper Tax was in trouble….but Agate Road ran well….
Hi
While I am looking forward to today’s Samuel F. Davis and am pulling for Change of Command because I like Shug (actually because I love Phipps horses and Shug is my link to them regardless of who else he trains for), next Saturday’s Risen Star at Fair Grounds has me as excited about a 100 point Derby prep race as I can remember.
I hope today’s races are safe and fair.
greg (Fan of Damascus)
Hi Greg… nice to see your posts here.
For true fans it is really elating to still have Hall of Famer Shug McGaughey developing top racehorses after 55 years of career.
The Kentuckian is also the architect of five Hall of Fame icons (Easy Goer, Personal Ensign, Heavenly Prize, Inside Information, and Lure)
Shug, with his trademark patience, will ensure Change of Command, Conquest Warrior and even Corporate Power have the chance to reach full potential …!
Greetings from Calgary!
Ouch!! I just checked Calgary’s weather forecast. Stay warm.
FYI Risen Star is a 50 point race for the winner.
Snead (ranked at #11) worked 4F on 1-20 but hasn’t had a recorded work since that date. If Brendan P. Walsh doesn’t work him in the next day or two, I’m wondering if Snead will skip the Risen Star and point elsewhere. The competitive field that has been assembled for the Risen Star would be diminished with his absence.
Highly doubt he runs in Risen Star – no works in 17 days.
They’ve already drawn that race and Snead wasnt entered. Trying to find out what’s happening with him. Obviously had some setback
With no recent works, that’s what I was afraid of. I have more than a passing interest in Snead. I placed $40.00 win wager on him at 69-1, in KD Futures Pool 3. I just hope he recovers and continues his path on the Derby trail. Time will tell.
On a previous blog I dedicated a submission to Bergen. I specified I might be the only one that has the Laim’s Map colt on a Derby list.
The #7 ranking assigned to Mystic Dan certainly flatters Bergen. Why? Prior to Mystic Dan’s 5th place finish in the Smarty Jones. He contested an AOC over 8F at CD in Bargen was also an entrant. He finished 5 1/2L behind Bergen who experienced a less than ideal trip when closing late for 2nd.
Brad Cox seems reluctant to enter Bergen in a Derby Prep. But the performance of Mystic Dan in the SW, should be more than enough reason to put Bergen on the KD Trail.
The colt recently won the 6F Jimmy Winkfield Stakes (Black Type) at the Big A by a handy 5 1/4. The Gotham seems to be an ideal spot or him.
If based on his 5 1/2L finish ahead of Mystic Dam, he is in fact, the better of the two. His next start merits some attention.
Brad Cox has indicated the Gotham Stakes is next for the son of Liam’s Map.
On February 11th at Santa Anita Maymun and stable mate Imagination are entered in one mile allowance race. Also entered is a 1.8 million purchase trained by Richard Mandella and first-time starter colt by Constitution named, Revised Statute. Should be hot race …would not be surprised if one of the stable mates is scratched before the race.
Interesting race that 6th at Santa Anita this Sunday. Looks like a match between Imagination (Into Mischief) and Maymun (Frosted)…. Mandella must have Revised Statute (Constitution) in the highest regard to debut him against winners.
BTW… while watching the workouts of Fierceness at Palm Beach Downs I came across a video of the (January 20th ) breeze of 3-year-old Secret Crush in company with Expressman. They went 5 furlongs in 1:00.20 and Secret Crush looked so good that I registered him in my virtual stable.
Secret Crush is debuting in the 8th race at Gulfstream as the 9/5 ML favorite. He is by Candy Ride out of Elarose by Storm Cat. On top of having the same cross as champion Shared Belief his second dam is Broodmare of the Year Take Charge Lady.
Secret Crush will have to contend with Godolphin’s Hunt Ball (Into Mischief) the half brother of HoY Cody’s Wish. The 6 furlongs will benefit the debutant but Hunt Ball has run well against very good horses like Risk It, Drum Roll Please and Sierra Leone…
They are no Justify but still I am curious to see how they fare in this maiden race and weigh their potential …
Mr Skylight debuts for Riley Mott in that heat—he’s 20-1 but there’s things to like, his works are progressively better, that is to say the 3fur and 4 fur and 5 furlong works progress in times—and both sire and dam won their debuts….also young Mott is training up a storm, at Gulfstream…..good maiden race..
Hopefully, Revised Statute is as good as the closely related Valiance was.
Yes, Downthestretch, I was wondering if they all intended to start or just making sure the race goes ahead.
The performance of Copper Tax in the Remsen was better than it looks on paper. He was hurried at the start to avoid being wide in the first turn but Dornoch, Domestic Product, Billal and Where’s Chris were very fast as well and made him run 5 wide the whole race.
Copper Tax did not seem to get hold of the Aqueduct sealed track and also lost action after being bumped in the last turn which left him in 8th (penultimate) position. He had something left to finish 6th passing Billal and Domestic Product in the stretch. Domestic Product rebounding to be 2nd in the Holy Bull gives more credence to Copper Tax effort in the Remsen.
Gary Capuano, is infusing stamina into Copper Tax with two consecutive mile-workouts at Laurel. The Maryland-based trainer, has had only one runner in the Derby. He did a great job with Captain Bodgit who always ran with a bowed tendon. People wondered how he could run with such lump in his lower foreleg but still the public made him the 3/1 favorite in the 1997 Derby.
Capuano got a good horse in Copper Tax and you can be sure he will have his hopeful ready for a big race tomorrow.
I am mindful that Copper Tax is not a Derby horse, but speed is king the first half of the trail.
My trifecta will be with (7) Copper Tax on top with the following horses beneath:
2 Tireless
3 Patriot Spirit
5 No More Time
6 Agate Road
9 Change of Command
10 West Saratoga
Good luck and safe trip to everyone this Super Bowl weekend!
* in the Sam F. Davis Stakes
For some of us who follow the progeny of elite stallions in the Derby it would be notable that Tapit won’t have any sons running in it this year.
I have been tracking the progeny of Tapit, Curlin and Into Mischief in the Derby to learn who has done better. Tapit’s first crop was born in 2006 whereas Curlin and Into Mischief got their first crop in 2010.
Tapit had at least one son running in every Derby since 2012 with the exception of year 2020 when the pandemic distorted everything… those 11 Derbies with 13 sons of Tapit participating constitute a record. However, no Tapit son has won the Derby.
Tapit had done enough to take a break after siring the phenomenal Flightline and Essential Quality in 2018. Charge It and Tapit Trice were two Tapit colts stirring some excitement in the last two Triple Crown trails.
When it comes to the Triple Crown, Tapit is passing the torch to Constitution whose sons Catching Freedom, Speak Easy, Born Noble, Deposition and even Gettysburg Address could get to the Derby. In the second tier you see Legalize, Mc Vay and Indispensable who have a lot of catch-up to do but, who knows, what is in store the next 3 months.
Also, the influence of Tapit as a broodmare sire cannot be overlooked. His maternal grandsons are led by Real Men Violin, Just a Touch, Le Gris and Moonlight.
Curlin has sired at least one Derby runner from 2013 to 2018. He got no progeny in the 2019 and 2020 Derbies with Known Agenda being his last son in the 2021 Derby. Lord Miles who was arbitrarily scratched from last year’s Derby would have been his 10 son participating in the first leg of the TC.
This year, Curlin has Otello and Mission Beach as his leading colts, but both were disappointing in their last races.
The other Curlin colts nominated are all still maidens: Gun Party, Corporate Power, Eliminate, Be You and Cornishman.
Curlin is the sire of the promising new stallions Good Magic, Vino Rosso and Solomini; and the damsire of Derby hopefuls Mendelssohn Bay, Real Macho and Tuscan Gold.
Into Mischief, like Curlin, has had 9 sons in the Derby but enjoys more success with 2 wins.
This year Into Mischief got a good chance to pass Curlin with Timberlake, Change of Command and Resilience as his best cards.
Into Mischief is also doing well as sire of sires with Goldencents, Practical Joke and Audible; and is the damsire of Track Phantom.
These 3 top sires have enriched the Triple Crown series, and their legacy seems to be preserved through their sons and daughters. New sires like Gun Runner, Justify, Nyquist and City of Light are vying to be elite and I would not be surprised if their progeny flood the Derby in the next decade.
Nelson, there are only a couple of Tapit colts even nominated for this year’s Triple Crown races. I remember at the 2022 Keeneland September sales most of the Tapit progeny were fillies. As a broodmare sire Tapit’s AEI is 1.51 to a Comp Index of 1.37 which is outstanding with only Bernardini, Scat Daddy having a better comparisons for their age range.
I’m following the Constitution colts this year, plus Honor Marie. I’ve liked so many Constitution colts at the sales from their inception. Greatest Honour, Proxy, and Tacitus are other son’s of Tapit, besides Flightline and Essential Quality, who have the possibity to emulate Constitution.
Tapit got an exceptional bunch to pass the baton to…!
Not to forgot that other sons of Tapit – Tonalist, Race Day, Tapizar among others, have sired major winners as well.
That is a good point Davids… those 3 alone have produced such outstanding horses like Country Grammer, White Abarrio and champion Monomoy Girl.
Tapiture, Concord Point, Trappe Shot, Tapwrit, Flashback, Anchor Down, Iron Fist and Cupid are decent stailion as well…
Hofburg progeny is being hyped in Brazil.
There is no stats for paternal grandsires the same way we have it for broodmare sires, but one can say that Tapit got a good number of sons siring a significant number of Stakes winners.
Nelson, when you look through the present top 20 Sires, Tapit has 3 sons the most of any sire which exemplifies the unpredictability of sire influences these days. It’s all about quantity rather than quality. Frosted was looking as a so, so, sire then outcomes Mayhem who could be any kind then the demand increases again.
Thanks for the information on Hofburg. When do they start running?
The last time I checked it was the colt Nevada Smith his first winner from his first crop … his winning debut was like two weeks ago…
Hofburg is getting the best mares there…
Thanks, Nelson. Good news.
Nelson Mc Vay is also by Constitution, and he’s a nice colt! Still a maiden, in John Shirreffs care, and I think he is going to make some noise, in this crop–of+cost $1.25 million, is large-framed, has some zip and some stamina—watch for him..
Yes Matthew… with that built and running style I foresee Mc Vay as great Belmont candidate…
I wish the ‘unmentionables’ had allowed the point system in California to function without the banned group as if they were never in the race. Imagine if Mc Vay fails the points test because of lack of points due to a banned runner eliminating him by talking their ‘nonexistent’ points away from him. Farce.
Nysos is the best 3 year old in country and it might be by a large margin. I would move my horse to another part of country to gather up KD points then, if that is their goal.
Two wrongs don’t make a right, if you take my meaning but it may be the best solution. New York probably the best track to attempt same.
Basically, there probably won’t have any legitimate west coast horse participating in the KD.
The uproar will only get louder and louder with each new stake win by Nysos or other major horse in same stable coming to a crescendo on first Saturday of May.
Wssh, rinse,repeat.
Wash,rinse,repeat.
And don’t think for one second that NBC won’t cover the story if it evolves. Their punish the entire West Coast attitude is going to ignite only more bad press, blow up in their faces and hopefully get a few morons at CD inc fired for not seeing the foolishness of their vendetta. But that firing part is what a smart Inc would do so I’m not holding my breath on that one. This lack of thinking this through just smacks of willful ignorance from provincial morons.
Sometimes, as result of narcissism, things collapse in one frame.
Tapit was born in 2001 and as of January 1 is 23 years old. His book has been decreasing in the past few years. In 2021 he bred less than 100 mares based on Jockey Club stats. Peak year for winners
His peak was 2015 and there has been a downturn in the number of winners since then.
His fee does remain at $185,00. I saw a photo of him that was taken several months ago and he starting to show his age.
Yes Lynda… that’s why the post is about his heirs.
His legacy is already cemented… siring Flightline and Essential Quality at 17 years old is a big accomplishment as well.
Nelson, it was not the intention of my comment that Tapit is no longer capable of producing a colt at his age that can carry on his sire line.
Time however is running out due to his age and what appears in the photo I saw recently, a gradual decline in his top line, muscle tone and fat cover on his ribs. I noticed too a puffiness in his ankles that I have not seen before.
At the moment Constitution does come across to me as his most likely successor.
However I do not think that Tapit can be called a sire of sires at least not yet. Several of his most successful colts on the track have been sold to other countries. Frosted as a sire has not set the world on fire. His other aforementioned colts by Davids have sired a few winners but not yet, at least in my opinion enough to qualify as continuing his sire line.
Essential Quality’s first racing crop has not yet hit the tracks. I do have high hopes for EQ. He is one of my favorite Tapits.
The Flightline foals that I have seen so far are very nice and no doubt will bring some very high prices at auction. Still, we will not know how successful they will be on the track for several years.
Tapit has had such an impact on the breed, they will be big shoes to fill by any standard.
The Sam Davis always seems to be a good betting race, I love the earlier preps, the ones that haven’t whittled down the contenders yet….I know Todd is replacing Locked with Agate Road…a move that sometimes works, I think this is a good horse, and he is working well, 7/2 but if all go I expect he will climb up in odds…..
Yes, Matthew, it’s much more fun when there is a feast of hopefuls than when it’s whittled down to a handful early on. At this stage, anything is possible and nothing is certain.
Steve do you know Bill Casner, of Winstar?…I always liked Well Armed, the enormous son of Tiznow, but I didn’t know the inside story, of his love and devotion to the horse, and his long road to recovery….of the horse and Bill, himself, and their family tragedy….I just remembered the horse started late, and was pretty good…..and won the Dubai Cup by 14 lengths…That horse healed a man and his family….
I know Bill and the story of Well Armed is a remarkable one. There was a video but I cant remember where I saw it
It was HRTV and you can watch it on YouTube.
I saw it and it brought tears..
My two most recent posts associated with BB didn’t involve slander.
The first was outlining what I perceived to be the reason for the one-year extension of his suspension. It was in defense of CD Inc., decision in the face of inferred malice on the part of the organization.
The second was a summary of the performances of his KD winers and entrants over the years. This was to highlight that 5 of his post time favorites were defeated with 3 finishing off the board. Further, the win margin recorded by his of his 7 KD winners didn’t represent a demolition of the opposition as their win margin average was 1.33L
The post also highlighted that BB’s KD winner had neither fractional nor race records that would indicate they were the most dominant of KD winners. Further, some his entrant that entered the KD with the best resumes and considered the best entrant finished off the board. This was done to rebut the notion that his horses we so magnificent that their exclusion diminished the KD. I consider such a notion a slap in the face of all other trainers.
None of the two posts contained any slander of the trainer.
Give it up Counterpoint your not going win this argument. Stick to the program.
The undefeated Elysian Meadows deserves a serious look in the Sam Davis. He is by red hot sire City of Lights out of Heavenly Thought by War Front.
Heavenly Thought’s dam was sire by Sadler’s Wells. This means she has Nothern Dancer top and bottom. She broke her maiden over 9F on turf in a fast time of 1:48.48. She also finished 3rd by 2 3/4L over 10F completed in 2:00.04. The aforementioned times are relatively fast for turf. But more importantly, the mare displayed a lot of stamina.
City of Lights was all speed. His best time for 8F was 1:33.83 recorded in the BC Dirt Mile. That time represents the 2nd fastest for the stakes with only Albertus Maximus 1:33.41 being faster. His best time for 9F was 1:47.71 recorded in the 2019 Pegasus. His sole attempt over 10F resulted in a 3rd place finish by 5 1/2L.
Given the resumes of Elysian Meadows sire and dam, the colt shouldn’t have problem stretching out. His 2 starts to date have been over sprint distances i.e., 61/2 and 6F. It is hoped that he hasn’t been assessed by trainer Mott as sprinter that is being stretched out with optimisms. But rather a routing prospect who started its career sprinting.
There is a combination of speed and stamina on both sire of Elysian Meadows pedigree. Further, his pedigree falls into the classis winners’ producing cross featuring the Mr. Prospector line over the Northen Dancer broodmare line. That’s the same cross produced the 2023 KD winner Mage.
Elysian Meadows ML of 15/1 is the price at which he won on debut. On debut he closed from 8th some 5L of the pace. Surprisingly, in his next start he was only 1 1/2L off the leader before taking over to hold for a win.
Should this colt’s potential match its pedigree, he could be sneakily good, and I think he deserves consideration.
Enthusiasm about any given prospect tends to wane after he fails to win when you expect him to do so.
Fierceness flop in his 3-year-old debut is triggering divided opinions. Some are willing to give him a second chance pending his next race and others are taking him out of contention at once.
I really hope Fierceness does not have any underlying issue causing subpar runs. For instance, some respiratory troubles are not detected during workouts but burst out at maximum effort while racing. On the other hand, one would have expected a regression after an exceptionally fast BC Juvenile. I would like to think that Fierceness needed the race…I don’t believe he is a “one-hit wonder”… looks inconsistent but classy anyway.
The other two hopefuls I expected to win were Liberal Arts and Lightline.
After reading Steve’s comments about Liberal Arts, I realized that I overestimated his chances in the Southwest. Did not win but he ran very well considering he was reappearing on a heavy track after 3-month-layoff. Liberal Arts finished strong and was two or three lengths in front of Just Steel 20 yards after the finish line. So, if anyone needed a race it was the son of Arrogate.
In principle, I could not picture Liberal Arts as a maternal grandson of Tribal Rule being a big player, but I recalled that his son Georgie Boy was the leading Derby contender from California in 2008. The son of Tribal Rule out of Ippodamia by Peterhof won the San Vicente Stakes over Into Mischief in an exceptional 1:20 flat for 7 furlongs and then the San Felipe on the all-weather track of the time in Santa Anita. Georgie Boy was out of the Santa Anita Derby (where he would have been absolute favorite) and off the Derby due to a strained muscle in his back.
As for Lightline, I cannot find any valid excuse for him not being able to dominate a supposedly weaker field. Uncle Heavy really surprised me because his PPs shows only one workout since November. The son of Social Inclusion had breezed 4 furlongs in 49 2/5 on the slop at Parx a week before the Withers. His trainer, Robert Reed Jr., must have put really smart gallops in this big horse this winter.
At any rate, given the abundance of other nice prospects it is easy to just drop the Withers as the source of a Derby winner…
The Risen Star will be a more serious business for sure …!
The late Tribal Rule—by Storm Cat out of a Grenfall mare was a strong sire for several years in Cali….
Since this could be a somewhat quiet weekend for the 3 yr old colts, you might want to tune into Santa Anita for the Las Virgenes Stakes for the fillies on Saturday. It drew a massive field of 5….so sad…but of interest are the two favorites Kinza and Kopian.
Also check out the last-ever El Camino Real Derby from Golden Gate Fields. Michael McCarthy, whose Rombauer took the 2021 edition of the race on his way to winning the Preakness that year, has likely favorite Endlessly. John Sadler and Doug O’Neill have entries as well (Tapalo and Guy Named Joe, respectively).
Hi Steve – I have a feeling Liberal Arts may be flying under the radar as a serious KY Derby contender. LA reminds me alot like Disarm from last years derby trail who went on to finish a good fourth in the KY Derby. Both Disarm and LA Appreciate more distance and LA will get more distance when he runs in the ARK Derby as his next target prep. He already has 19 Derby points , so a third or better should get him in . C. Torres seems to fit LA Like a glove and the horse is so consistent. He has never missed the board in 6 career starts. Amazingly , and very encouraging is that Liberal Arts BSF have increased in all of his races. I’m glad to have bet Liberal Arts in KDFW2. Do you see similarities between Disarm and Liberal Arts Steve?
Disarm seemed to have more natural speed while LA looks to have a stronger closing kick. But both were improving the right way.
I find it interesting that no one is writing about the upcoming Sam Davis. Just as Fierceness was considered a slam-dunk for the Holy Bull, Change of Command is considered a lock for the Davis. This is far from the case. (Has anyone else noticed how many times college basketball players blow slam-dunks? Feeling a bit bruised after my alma mater, UNC, lost to Georgia Tech in a heart breaker, then smashed Duke to oblivion, followed by yet another loss to Clemson Tuesday night. Did they bounce?)
Other intriguing options include Grade 2 grass winner Agate Road, Patriot Spirit, who already has a stakes win at Tampa Bay, and Grade 3 Iroquois winner West Saratoga. I find myself intrigued by the Bill Mott-trained Elysian Meadows, despite his low Beyer figures. He’s another by emerging sire City of Light and has won his first two races.
Thoughts? Opinions? Exacta ideas?
Well, Ms Blacktype, Patriot Spirit might surprise here but I have a soft spot for Crazy Mason.
The name, Davids?
No, Ms Blacktype, Coal Front was a favorite when he raced.
Ever the rationalist!
I like Agate Road to roll on past them in the lane …
I apply the bounce theory to sports betting all the time. It works.
Anatomy of a good horse: War Admiral, watch his 1937 Kentucky Derby —the auxiliary gate was INSIDE, and War Admiral started on the rail and ON THE TURN ….watch the crowd, running toward the backstretch,trying to get another view—War Admiral was sent hard, and held off a frantic closer—coming back to win the Preakness and then breaking his papa’s track record in The Belmont, after losing part of his hoof, ala California Chrome….8 for 8 as a 3yo, winner of 21 of 25 starts but remembered mostly for his four lengths drubbing, at the hands of a fellow small horse Seabiscuit….looked nothing like his famous father Man O War but was quite a talented runner AND a good sire, Busher among his best and she was a superstar….
War Admiral is one of the great broodmare sires of all time, besides Busher, there are these influential blue hens: Bee Mac, Busanda, Iron Maiden, Searching, and Striking.
HOLY BULL
The subject stakes fractions and final time suggest there must have been a malfunctioning of the timing apparatus.
Fractions of 25.03; 50.53; 1:14.25; 1:39.28; 1:46.07 for a graded stake are unfathomable. Consider the following –
Fierceness won the BCJ in 1:41.90. The HB was 4 plus seconds slower and he finished 3rd.
Domestic Product won a MSW over 9F in 1:50.97. Fo the colt to replicate that 9F time. He had to cover the last 1/2F in 4.90.
I concur with Steve Haskin that Domestic Product should have won race. In fact, he was my wager to win, and I was salivating having seen the post time odds of 14/1. I was very displeased with how the colt was handled.
His rider essentially killed on the bit. The colt was eager to go as the pace was below his cruising speed. But he was placed under stranglehold. That must have been confusing as when he given his que to go, he was tardy in responding. He was directed to the rail and for reason unknown was taken 6W thus losing more ground than the 2L by which he was defeated.
It’s not very often a 2YO in its first attempt at 9F on the Big A surface records a time as fast as 1:50+. The aforementioned time is good enough to win 6 of the last 7 Remsens. Domestic Product is a lot better than assessed.
BILL MOTT
The subject trainer doesn’t have a lot of KD caliber youngsters each year. But he is such an excellent horseman that if given the material he certainly will be ultra-competitive in the big race.
Country House finished 9th on debut beaten by 12 3/4L. He finished 2nd next by 1/2L in a slowly run (1:40+) 8F by 1/2. He broke his maiden over 8 1/2F in a modest time of 1:44.99. I guess no one could have projected that a colt with such a modest start to its career, could eventually finish 2nd in the KD and fortunate enough to be promoted to first. But that’s the magic of Bill Mott.
I doubt Mott has ever had a debut winner like the well-bred Knightsbridge. He is accustomed to turning straw into gold but with Knightsbridge, he already has the gold. He just has to make sure it shines.
The colt has been absent since its debut. But recent works recorded on Equibase suggests he is being primed for a return. I do not know if he is behind and off the KD Trail. However, if all is well, he must be a serious KD contender given the hands he is in.
Mott handed the Godolphin stable its first HOTY tile in the USA with Cody’s Wish. I would not put it beyond the trainer to provide Godolphin with its first KD winner with Knightsbridge. He is ranked only behind #1 Sierra Leone on my list.
Slightly off topic but related to horse racing (20 sec. video)
Steve have you ever seen a bigger horse race fan than this one?
https://www.pinterest.com/pin/281543720772620/
Love it !!!
Thanks.
I liked the start, he was quiet until the gates opened.
Oh now that’s funny!! great post!
Years ago the Bloodhorse forbid any conversation about Bob Baffert because of the slander and any mention of his name was automatically deleted by the program. We are heading in that direction. I am seeing names I havent seen here in years show up with the sole intention of starting a Baffert controversy. I will say now that it’s time to get back to talking about the Derby so we can get all the malcontents to go back in hiding. I am not a Baffert hater or supporter. There are no good guys here. I have no interest in Baffert and no desire to talk about him. I texted him once this year asking him if HE was running Nysos in the Lewis and he never answered me. So in regard to the Derby Rankings he is a non entity and is not worthy of discussion. Those who persist will be banned from commenting.
About time.
Sad that nice vid was deleted, would have brought many smiles here.
Bravo Steve!! Thanks for shutting the door on the garbage and keeping the focus on the Derby! Any chance we can get you to run for President??
Of what?
Well I meant the Pres of our great country, but on second thought I wouldn’t wish that upon anyone…..at least not in todays world.
Well stated, Steve. Let’s hope your words are taken seriously. Enough is enough.
Steve,
I hope this doesn’t mean we can’t comment about Nysos, Muth , or Maymum (or an any others in his barn ) from a racing sense as they maybe prevalent in Derby prep races.
Sure you can. Just no more Baffert…pro or con.
Whoever doesnt wont be here very long. I have seen too much nastiness on other websites’ comments and too many websites shut down comments altogether like Bloodhorse, DRF, and Paulick Report. This is one of the few remaining ones.
Keep it going Steve.
But be firm, this whole thing would not have gone so far but for one person who day in and day out has been doing the same thing on the other site. The never engage in debates, but it looks like they have an agenda.
Just be firm and everything will be fine.
That was the perfect rebuttal to all. Let us all and I mean ALL respect your wishes!
Thank u Steve we feel sorry for you you’re such a wonderful part of the journey to the Kentucky derby please block these negative people so we can continue with the joy you bring us and so many ! We support you Steve and thank you
Thank you very much Nick. I appreciate that.
Hello Steve. With all due respect to your comments I do not understand your rationale. I have 1 question only, why have all the owners stood with Baffert if the evidence is so overwhelming against him? Or, is it the Churchill Boys Club are so petty to ban a 6 time winner of the Derby because he won’t genuflect to their posturing? He served his ban. Apparently he’s not contrite enough for Kentucky. We all lose as race fans. I thought it’s about the horses. The best against the best. Otherwise, you’re Derby Dozen has no meaning. This is not a Baffert controversy. This is a sport that is absolutely rudderless.
Not a Baffert controversy? Have you been reading the comments? What about my comments dont you understand and what exactly is my rationale? It’s about the horses. Isnt that what I said? I dont care why the owners did what they did. Thats their business.
Your comments are quite revealing. Gid rid of the malcontents . Baffert never answered my text. Baffert is a non entity. Come on Steve. You seem a little bitter.
Dear Mike,
We strive to have a website that promotes the sport, not disrespectful comments. Please abide by this policy moving forward.
Sincerely,
The Secretariat.com team
No issues. I love the sport. The 1st race I attended was Secretari
Sorry, got cut off. The 1st race I attended was Secretariat’s last race at Woodbine. I was 16 years old. I’m now 67 years old. Been to all the Triple Crown Races, the Belmont is the best by the way. Been to the Breeders Cup a few times, Saratoga every year for 30 years. Still the best place to be in August. No disrespect to Steve in my comments regarding Baffert but I think the sport is in real trouble. Every sport in North America has a commissioner . Why not horse racing? The fans want to see the best horses racing against each other. How difficult is that? Issues have to be talked about without threatening notes. The sport deserves this.
I nominate Steve Haskin as “National Horse Racing Commissioner”.
I second that.
Mike Cooper
Mike,
What’s wrong with you?
Technology.
♂️
Forehead smack emoji!
…he types as he realizes Steve is talking about him and tries to save face.
Way to go!!!
Glad to read this.
Steve, how long will this go on? The courts have ruled and Baffert’s suit has been dropped. As YOGI said “IT ain’t over till it’s over”. I forgot some people are still arguing Robinson’s steal of home plate on YOGI in 55 and I wasn’t born till 6 months later. With a bit of humor with this I propose tp put an end to this. An old Southern tradition when to parties feel slighted, injured and one’s honor impugned the gentlemen in question will have a duel. There were a dueling grounds all through Kentucky and some great men through the years settled their differences. The best place for this is Kentucky Downs “The Dueling Grounds” Since this is a “Clash of Titans” Sell tickets, pay per view rights and bill it as “The Derby Trial” I think tat works since we no longer have that race and all monies go to helping retired Tbreds. Baffert and Carstanjan back to back. No seconds. 10 paces turn and fire. The only difference for this since we think ourselves to be civilized ( personally I don’t see any proof of that) is that it’s all done with paintball pistols. I’d drive 12 hours to see that!
Steve, for a very long time I enjoyed reading your Derby Dozen articles and for the past few years The Derby Rankings. However, this year the comments section is turning into the BB cheering section.
The only derangement I see is from posters that keep supporting someone who is associated with drug infractions, lies, excuses, a cluster of deaths, and making a mockery of two of the biggest races in the sport.
It’s a shame that you are sympathetic and impartial to the BB zealots.
Please give it a rest. This is supposed to be about the Derby Rankings not about Bob Baffert. I for one have not enjoyed coming to this site due to all the negativity & cranky people like you. Whatever did or didn’t do is in the past. I say move on, stop the Baffert tirade, we don’t care what you think……
I don’t give dung what you think! Last I checked, it’s a free country. No one is forcing you to read my posts.
I still don’t care what you think.
Well said Deacon, I second your thoughts……..well except for the part about this site and “all the negativity”, I very much enjoy this site because of the LACK of negativity, most everyone here contributes in a positive and informative way.
I’ll add that it was previously stated here that Steve has never said anything negative about BB’s conduct and he hasn’t pointed out his shenanigans, well I don’t believe Steve has said anything negative about ANY trainer or anyone else for that matter, so what’s the issue with him not bagging on BB?? I’m with you, give it a rest, it’s time to move on!
Bruce, well said. I enjoy these blogs, Steve does yeoman’s work on his writings. It just got to the point where we need to focus on the Derby Ranking. All of us have waited several months for the Derby Rankings to commence.
I would believe that I am one of the older bloggers here. I try to follow & respond to most of Steve’s stories.
Let us all just focus on the Derby & Triple Crown. Remember, it only comes around once a year.
Spot on, and I’m glad Steve took the lead and got things back on track(no pun intended!). Well I might be right there with you on the subject of age, I just turned 65. Can’t believe I’m old enough to start Medicare!! What happened??!! Here’s to the older generation!
Hello Deacon, good to see you here.
Been thinking about you.
Baffert Derangement Syndrome is on high alert here.
PS-why do I get the feeling that it is just one person, perhaps two, that are posting comments that are inflicted with BDS under multiple names?
Just about every YouTube channel has been commenting on the January 29th deadline and lamenting the unfairness of CD. The consensus seems io be the best horses should run in the KD and CD’s action is preventing same. It is the news of the moment.
In a post I highlighted the real reason for the 1-year extension of Bob suspension in support of CD Inc. That doesn’t equate to BDS.
In another post I highlighted the performances of Bob’s KD winner and other entrants. This was done to indicate they were not doing demolition jobs on the opposition. Further, they were not amongst the most memorable KD winners on record that would suggest the world is being robbed of their command performances. That doesn’t equate BDC. That just indicating the KD will be just fine without Bob entrants.
Just for the record, for the duration of the Steve Haskin series of Secretariat posts I plan to skip over any comment in which the writer refers to BB, Bob, Baffert, Bob Baffert or That Dumb Trainer on The West Coast. I wish to be educated by Steve and other readers about their ideas for the upcoming Kentucky Derby 150 field, but most certainly not about their opinions, positive or negative, of a person whose horses will not even be anywhere near Louisville come May 2024. Readers are most welcome to skip over any comment that I might write which they find as boring as I find the incessant irrelevant chatter about BB, Bob, Bob Baffert or That Dumb Trainer on The West Coast. I will, however, continue to read commentary by our host Steve Haskin if he happens to refer to the aforementioned West Coast trainer. I am happy to forgive the mentions in advance. Happy reading and writing and handicapping to all!
I think you may be forgetting one thing, that the unmentionable trainer’s colts may have a large impact on which colts actually get into the field for the Kentucky Derby. The unmentionable’s colts by winning/placing in Kentucky Derby preps will deny other non-unmentionable colts points needed to get into the Derby field. You may be missing quite a lot of the action by ignoring posts that mention the ‘unmentionable.’
Just having a giggle, it’s Friday morning here. Enjoy reading Steve’s comments, he’s the best.
Excellent point Davids. All West Coast Trainers, Owners and Horses are being punished by CD inc. by declaring the points of any race forfeited if the restricted trainers horses finish on the board. The points should slide down the finish ladder to be just and my understanding is they are lost. This just smacks of provincial ignorance.
‘they’ certainly didn’t think it through, did they? ‘Other’ California owners/trainers/fans are being punished for no reason.
I have been making the rounds and the loud cries are the same i.e., best horses need to be in the Kentucky Derby. It appears the best horses on the KD Trail are centralized in CA and in the barn of Bob Baffert.
The fact that Nysos romped to victory in the Bob Lewis has even made the cries louder. Didn’t Messier romp to a 15L win in Bob Lewis in 2022 which earned him highest Beyer of any 3YO? He finished 15th in the KD. Has any of BB 9 or 10 Bob Lewis winners return to win the KD? I do believe Poineerof the Nile record the best finish.
Many are of the opinion BB has the best 2024 KD contingent. That conclusion was put to the test outside CA in the Southwest with Wynstock the Los Al Derby winner. As the 4th choice in the betting, he finished last by 28L. It probably was the sloppy conditions that caused his poor performance ala Fierceness. But you never know!
Have Bob Baffert’s Derby KD horses been so awesome that makes their participation imperative! Well, let’s see!
Below is a list of BB’s KD winners and their win margins.
2021 – Medina Spirit – 1/2L
2020 – Authentic – 1 1/4L
2018 – Justify -2 1/2L
2015 – American Pharaoh – 1L
2002 – War Emblem- 4L
998- Real Quiet – 1/2
1997 – Silver Charm – HD
Aggregate 9 3/4
Average 1.33L
Beaten Favorites:
Point Given – Finished 5th by 11 1/2L
Lookin AT Lucky – Finished 6th by 7L
Pioneerof The Nile – Finished 2nd by 6 1/2L
Bodemeister – Finished 2nd by 1 1/2L
In the 2nd fastest time (1:59.97) recorded in the KD. The BB trained Point Given was returning $0.80 on the dollar. He was not the entrant that recorded that time but rahther Monarcos. In fact, Point Given finished off the board.
Two biggest win margins (6 1/2L) recorded in the KD in the modern era, were by Barbaro and Mine That Bird. Neither were trained by Bob Baffert.
The fastest half mile split (44.86) recorded in the KD was by Songandprayer. He wasn’t trained by BB.
The fastest 6F split (1:09.25) recorded in the KD was by Songandprayer. He wasn’t trained by BB.
The fastest 8F split (1:34.80) recorded in the KD was by Spend A Buck. He wasn’t trained by BB.
The average win margin by BB’s 7 KD winners is 1.33L Removed War Emblem, a colt he didn’t develop, but has emerged as his winner with the biggest margin. The win margin average for the remaining 6 is less than 1L.
BB has won the Kentucky Derby 7 times. It wouldn’t be a stretch to state that most of BB’s KD winners have grinded out their victories. There hasn’t been an overpowering performance from any of his KD winners, that suggests he is leagues ahead of other trainers.
His KD winners possess no fractional and/or race records and no moments that are seared into the memories of Thoroughbred Race fans.
The notion that the exclusion of the BB contingent will diminish and/or dilute the Kentucky Derby is laughable.
This one confuses me. In other posts, you have more than insinuated that Baffert’s horses were dominating the KD because he was juicing. Now, you present a case that his previous horses hadn’t run well enough to be missed. Are you a lawyer?
He’s only won 6 Kentucky Derbies. What a joke of an analysis.
Todd V I am with you about being confused with Counterpoint post here but…
Counterpoint, People like to witness history. The Triple Crown (TC) (has been around 90 + years) ,a feat that has only been done 13 times and Baffert owns 2 of them in modern times. He lost 2 (Silver Charm and Real Quiet ) other attempts by less than 3/4 qrts of a length and 4 inches. War Emblem won the first 2 legs but unfortunately had a troubled trip in the Belmont. Point Given missed winning the KD due to getting caught up in a suicidel front end pace. This year he has 3 (possibly more) who could be good enough to win a Triple Crown but will be denied because of CD vengefulness. Yes, CD will have it’s 150k+ crowd and its management will thumb nose at the real racing enthusiast of the sport. But for those of us that really like see the best for the sport know that we will be denied seeing a TC winner this year. Even Ray Paulick (a known Baffert antagonist), of Paulick Report hints that the CD ban of Baffert suggest that this years KD will have to listed with asterisk at the end if Baffert is not allowed to run his horses.
With that I rest my …. Case !!!
The Kentucky Derby in 2020 made it clear they didn’t give a rip about the Triple Crown….
Authentic was beaten in the Preakness. There was no prospect of a TC to rip about.
Nysos is irrelevant, Steve.
I know you wrote the book with Bob, but why can’t you realize that the man has injured the sport since then?
Sorry, the humor in your comment made me smile. My good deed for the day is to send you this definition of the word facetious — “treating serious issues with deliberately inappropriate humor; flippant.” If you felt my little ditty of a facetious comment made Nysos relevant I may have to expand on it and add Muth and Maymun. As for writing a book on Bob 25 years ago, during which, according to you, we became blood brothers for life, I’m glad I never wrote a book on Charles Manson when he was young
Perfect answer Steve. Seems like these days no one is allowed to express an opinion or humor. Sensitivity in humans is triggered by nanograms lately.
Well said, there are way too many mean people in the world.
All your writings are informative & awesome.
Please do not stop writing……..
It is very difficult for the BB throng to be subjective. Steve helped write the book….therefore, he is partial to BB.
The funny part is….BB neither cares or is aware about the zealots that defend him blindly. They can’t seem to comprehend the negative press that he brings to the sport.
The excuses for the positive test results are too hilarious…..it was contaminated hay, it was a Salon Pas patch, dirty tricks by others, cancel culture, poppy seed muffins, the groom urinating in the stall, etc.
As for Nysos, any handicapper worth his weight in salt knows damn well this horse will not beat the top 3 year olds at 10F. 9F is within his limits….anything beyond, cross your fingers and hope for a miracle.
“Steve helped write the book….therefore, he is partial to BB.” I am? Thank you for letting me know.
It’s a fact. All these years, you’ve never said anything negative about his conduct. Please share one article where you pointed out his shenanigans.
Zany, I love it when folks post things in an attempt to show one’s “knowledge” of a horses ability without a shred of evidence! Show me the evidence that Nysos can’t beat the top 3 year olds. Come on show me…. Your comment is just nonsense, you don’t know that, none of us do, he may not, but we won’t know until it actually happens! So stop the attempts to build your ego.
BTW, make sure you put your “weight in salt” where your mouth is so I can cash a bigger ticket on Nysos!
Right on Bruce !!! No, truer word ever spoken !!!
Bruce…..I would love to take your SUCKER bet $$$$$ on Nysos in 10F races! Can you handle facts?
Nysos is a very fast undefeated colt at SA and Del Mar. He has won at 6F, 7F and 8F on the fastest tracks in the country, as well as his home turf. Each of the three races with multiple BB entries. Somehow, to the geniuses like you in the horse racing world, this automatically makes him the top contender for this year’s 10f Derby.
A fast colt winning an 8F race on a fast bias is now somehow a miraculous feat. Simply forget that the Derby is run at 10F, outside of the West Coast. Forget about the colts who lost the 8F race because they aren’t built to be sprinters, but they sure are built for 10+ furlongs in a 20 horse field.
Nysos wouldn’t have a prayer in Louisville with 20 contenders in the gate. Just because his sire, Nyquist, won the Kentucky Derby does not automatically make him a KD contender. Remember the 7f San Vincente and 8.5f San Felipe winner of 2022?
His name was Forbidden Kingdom, the son of Triple Crown Winner American Pharoah. After those two wins, the hype was plastered everywhere and his name showed up as the undisputed top player for the Derby. There are countless examples similar to Nysos…. Taiba was the second coming of Secretariat….we all know how that story ended.
Save your $$$$ and enthusiasm for another horse….and make sure to hydrate…otherwise that extra salt in your head will make you dizzy!!!
BOOM!
Zany, Barring any injury, misfortune on the track or dislike of an offtrack (he has not run on one yet) I expect Nysos to prove you wrong. At which time you will be “eating crow” and we be will waiting for your “Mea Culpa” !!! If you prove me wrong before he “retires healthy”, I will definitely admit I was wrong.
Feel free to add more built in excuses to the list….just in case.
Zany just can’t stand the fact that racing fans want BB and his horses back in the Derby. That is why he so blindly and boldly goes where no handicapping mind would go. And we’re the blind zealots? For the record, outside of American Pharoah and Justify, I gleefully bet against BB in just about every Kentucky Derby I’ve wagered and it is well documented on every one of Steve’s Derby Dozen columns for over20 some years. Why he thinks those of us who think CD inc is doing more harm than good with their vendetta are blind zealots under BB’s spell speaks volumes as to who is really blind and who is really a zealot. Projectionists often use this defense mechanism to undermine others.
El Kabong A BB zealot pretending to be a racing fan. “I gleefully bet against BB” The best joke I’ve heard in ages.
CD is protecting its marquee races from a repeat offender that thinks rules do not apply to him. Let that sink in for a minute…..For the past two years wagering has been up and there have been NO controversies. For the last time….What exactly has made BB the face of horse-racing? How many extra fans has he brought to this sport?
Nominations for the Risen Star closed on Saturday, February 3rd, with seven nominations* (pending late mail).
So far, the following seven have been nominated:
Agate Road
Awesome Ruta
Bee Dancer
Cardinale
Maycock’s Bay
Sierra Leone
The Donegal Clan.
Conspicuously absent, are Snead, Catching Freedom, Track Phantom, Resilience, Honor Marie and Real Men Violin.
Hopefully, the connections for the afore mentioned colts are included in the “late mail”.
Agate Road is entered in the Sam Davis, at Tampa Bay, on 2-10
The Donegal Clan is entered in the Ozark Stakes, at OP on 2-10
Obviously, those two will not be running in the Risen Star.
Bill, something isn’t right with the skimpy list of nominations for the Risen Star. Seven nominations led by Sierra Leone for a Gr. II with a purse of $400,000 and Derby points of 50-25-15-10-5? Where’s Honor Marie, Hall of Fame and others you mentioned? Very disappointing, to say the least. Perhaps Steve will be able to dig up some answers from the connections of the disappearing contenders.
These are new nominations. The others have been nominated fo the whole series.
I wasn’t aware of the series (Lecomte, Risen Star, Louisiana Derby) nominations. It’s a relief to hear that the Risen Star will remain a race with a quality field. Thanks Steve for clarifiying the confusion regarding the nominations. I knew you’d have the answers.
Thanks for the clarification, Steve.
DRF – Speak Easy, one of 54 Triple Crown nominees trained by Pletcher, won a 7 furlong maiden race on debut by 1 3/4 lengths on Jan. 27 at Gulfstream, earning a 100 Beyer Speed Figure. His next start is undecided, though the FOY on March 2 could be in play.
Terrific first start, I thought he had been outworked by his stablemate but he beat that one….100 Beyer—but there were four horses within around five lengths, track was pretty fast ….
I have seen many criticisms of CD Inc, for the organization’s decision to extend BB suspension for an additional year. CD Inc., Press Release regarding BB initial 2-year suspension details several factors that contributed to the decision. Those factors are well known.
A section of the Press Release that has been ignored by BB’s fans, specified that CD Inc., reverses the right to review its decision should BB record any violation/s during the 2 years. suspension.
BB had a clean record during the period. The big question has to be. Why the additional year?
BESMIRCHMENT
The idiom’ A still tongue keeps a wise head’ is probably unknown to Bob Baffert. In a TV interview believed to be after the Preakness. He advised the interviewers that he did nothing wrong to warrant the 2year suspension imposed by CD Inc.
What Mr. Baffert was unaware of is the fact that in making such a statement for both the national and international community to hear. He was inferring that if he did nothing wrong. CD Inc., decision to suspend him for 2 years was an act of malice – defined as, the intention or desire to do evil; ill will.
Mr. Baffert had his days in multiple courts, and it was adjudicated that Medina Spirit was under his keep and care when the colt returned a medication overage in the KD. Therefore, he was negligent in the matter. The courts didn’t exonerate Bob Baffert. His innocence was vested within himself.
CD is the organization that is responsible for the Kentucky Derby, the biggest dirt race for 3YOs in the world. Suddenly, a trainer suspended for a medication violation returned by his KD winner was besmirching the integrity of the organization with an Inference of malice.
Thoroughbred Racing is a sport that many think is corrupt and involves animal cruelty. CD is owned by CD Inc. If the organization that runs the KD is viewed as corrupt by a trainer’s inference. That doesn’t bode well for the sport, the organization and its shareholders as CD Inc., is a publicly traded company.
Bob Baffert could have easily said he didn’t agree with the decisions of the courts and CD Inc. and left it there. Or he could have said no comments.
The question I have for the fans of BB who think CD Inc., is being unfair and heavy handed. If you were the CEO of CD Inc. What would you do if the integrity of the organization you lead was the subject of besmirchment?
Bob Baffert could have easily said he didn’t agree with the decisions of the courts and CD Inc. and left it there. Or he could have said no comments. But he chose to project ill will on CD Inc.
A classic case of Cock Mouth Kill Cock. translation – A mouth cacuse its own demise
You’re comments are completely unfounded. Baffert showed no ill will to CD.This is strictly a boys club in Kentucky pushing a string. They are so outdated in this state with regards to racing. They wanted Baffert to bow to them and he said bullocks. Every trainer in California agreed with Baffert and now we have some of the best horses in the country unable to run in the most prestigious race in the country. So Baffert should have genuflected to those dweebs at CD to gain admission? That track is a joke.
Mike,
Perhaps considering following different sport is way to go since you seem so distressed over BB. Lol Churchill has every
right oreventing him from running this year and years to come,if they desire.
Edit: preventing
Not a boy fan of Baffert at all. Not distressed at all. Have you been to CD? I’ve been to the Derby once. That was enough. The track is a dumpster fire compared to Del Mar, Santa Anita and Saratoga. Go to Saratoga every year for a week. If you think this sport is in good hands, good for you. I’m glad Churchill can invite only the people they “prefer” to their track. Sounds reminscent of a by gone era.
Been to four KD’s.
My condolences. One of the worst race tracks in the worst parts of Louisville. Just a total drunk fest with little regard to the racing. The dummies at Louisville block off the back stretch with corporate stands so you have to watch the race on a big screen TV after paying a huge price for a seat. You get to see them coming off the far turn.
That track has completely sold out to Corporate Sponsors and doesn’t give a crap about the local audience. Watch the race at home with a mint julip.
Least we forget the bull ring in WV, Parx and many of the sub par tracks in CA.
Gee, maybe CDI should sue him uncivil court for besmirchment and get $88MM, like E Jean Carroll. I compare Baffert to you-know-who, because they are both malignant narcissists who think they are above the rules and lie about ever being responsible for anything that goes wrong.
Oh boy ….
CD Inc is being unfair and in some minds, it was they who wrongly besmirched BB. That he stood up for himself and said the punishment did not fit the crime even if you think a crime was committed is his right as a citizen of a democratic republic. In any case of crime, it is up to the accusers to also establish intent. When I examine the facts of the Medina Spirit case, I find no intent by BB to intentionally violate the rule nor any intent to gain any racing advantage. I do not deny that trace amounts of the substance were found, but they were found in such minuscule amounts that they speak to intent to commit the act to gain advantage. We all know that the amounts found did not give Medina Spirit any racing advantage. I see the rule itself of zero amounts of any substance to be patently unfair and unusual and goes beyond the need to find out if a trainer is seeking advantage. How many others had trace amounts of banned substances? We’ll never know because only the winner is tested but the point is rules like this are designed to only punish the winner if CD Inc sees it fit to do so. I certainly do not want any Trainer to use medications to enhance a horses racing performance, it would destroy public trust. But I also think that for the good of the sport, malice and Intent must be fundamental to punish a trainer so harshly. To not prove this and still hand out such harsh decisions leads many of us to believe that CD Inc is exercising it’s authority for reason other than for the good of the integrity of the sport.
All the ‘hand wringing’ is academic. No one is above the law, including BB.
Hi Steve. Baffert could have the 2 best horses in the country and not be eligible for the Derby. That being said, he served his suspension from Churchill and powers that be at Churchill felt he was not contrite enough (didn’t bow down to their ridiculous postering). Good for the California owners to stick with Baffert. If things play out as they appear to be heading the horse racing fans are the ones getting short changed by incompetent ne’er do wells in the Kentucky aristocracy that have an axe to grind with Baffert. As fans we just want to see the best horses face off against each other. Horse Racing needs a National Commissioner to oversee the sport. Right now it’s small fiefdoms everywhere.
Agreed Mike. The punishment never fit the crime for the Medina Spirit incident. To persist on the matter is just bad for the sport and makes a simple mistake appear to have been some heinous crime. How is this good for the Industry? It’s one thing when we face criticism from outsiders but these guys are supposed to be racing enthusiast. They are eating their own and that is never a good idea. I have a great deal of respect for the owners who have backed BB, even though I would love to see those horses run in the Derby. The reason we won’t lies in massive egos in Louisville who are to full of themselves.
After watching the video of Arrogate’s 4th by 19 1/2L performance in the 2017 San Diego. I submitted a post stating that we should be happy to be around in an era in which with a few keystrokes we can revisit the magnificence of the big Unbridled’s Song grey, as he was finished.
Many labeled me crazy. But crazy I was proven not to be. The excuses for the Arrogate’s poor performance were plentiful. But I am not sure what others had seen to fashion their respective excuses. What I saw was a horse totally devoid of the requisite energy to move its big frame at a speed to make it competitive in an allowance. Arrogate had transitioned from superstar to plodder. I viewed his condition as irreversible.
I watched the Holy Bull several times and what popped out of my memory was Arrogate’s 2017 San Diego performance. No! Fierceness wasn’t defeated by 19L, but the HB wasn’t completed in 1:42 but rather 1:46.
Fierceness stride mechanics in the final half furlong reflected a colt devoid of energy. The lack of energy wasn’t due to the wind being knocked out of him at the start. He wasn’t the only entrant that sustained contact at the start. Domestic Dispute took a good bump, and he was finishing best of all under poor handling.
I consider Fierceness condition likewise irreversible. His 26 1/2L form reversal between the Champagne and BCJ bears the hall mark of past stable mates who failed to deliver thereafter.
From what I observed Fierceness is finished. The colt has a compromised energy system. It matters not where he is directed for his next start, he will fade in the stretch. I suggest those holding future tickets on him to try to unload them at a discount.
OK! After my negative assessment and conclusion above. Could I be wrong and become a victim of egg on the face? It’s Thoroughbred Racing and we are only right a reported 30% of the times. And that’s a generous %. But I am fairly comfortable making such a prediction.
I want all who chose to read this submission to revisit Always Dreaming. He won a 9F AOC at GP in 1:53.44. Approximately a month later at the same venue he won the FL Derby in 1.47.47. That’s 6 seconds faster in 4 weeks. Training only?
Why reference AD? Well, I could have referenced Capo Boston and his dramatic form reversal to win the G1 Kings Bishop at 28/1 and never won theater. Training only?
Folks, when assessing TP’s horses do not be lured into believing that it’s talent exclusively on display. The trainer’s program has to be factored in. Negative effects of said program are inconsequential as there is always a stallion opportunity somewhere. There are historic records of TP’s horses going sour quickly. Particularly after explosive performance.
I enjoyed and agree with the first half of your post. You may or may not ultimately be proven right concerning the career of Fierceness. I’ve noted, and used in handicapping, that top 2yo fillies who begin their 3yo season with a poor effort are generally finished as racehorses. That may apply to colts also. I disagree with your analysis of Always Dreaming. I am not here to defend Pletcher, but AD’s slow allowance win was a function of pace and intent. I found it a very impressive performance. I expected him to win the Florida and Kentucky derbies, which he did.
Dear boy, Baffert has a plethora of horses that win a stakes once and then fade away … Roadster anyone? Why are you only pointing at Tod?
Barbara, that can said of any high profile trainer today. Alot a times an owner elects to send there horses to the breeding shed for the rewards of syndication. BTW ROADSTER is standing stud in Florida right now. Baffert got a couple of GRADE 1 wins for his owners.
Here rooting for my derby horse Honor Marie. Love the way he is coming along. He is going to be a force in the risen star. Love to see him get his points into the derby. M
Honor Marie sold for the bargain basement price of 40K, at auction. This leads me to believe that something was not quite right with this colt early on. However, in three career starts, he’s already secured $318K in earnings, which is quite impressive considering what he sold for, initially. Hat off to his connections, this could turn out to be the steal of the century.
BTW, I’ll go with Sierra Leone in the Risen Star.
Good luck Wicked One.
Wow what a steal with how he’s been doing. Sierra Lione is a nice one too. Rise Star always seem like a tough race and looks to be so this year.
Wicked One,
I like Honor Marie as well.
Yes! Want Honor Marie to do well. I would love to see an Honor Code in the derby.
Honor Marie’s return to the Derby trail is highly anticipated and, hopefully, he has progressed over winter, but even more so I would really like to see him on turf. Especially in a mile race on decent turf. His genetic make-up is replete with classy European milers’ blood and his running style screams for Ascot.
He’s been training steadily and haven’t heard any setbacks. So far so good. Sounds like he’s a versatile one. I’m a big fan of the ones that could run on turf and dirt. Perhaps in the future he could show up in one.
Evidently, Mystik Dan’s win in the Southwest Stakes failed to impress the odds maker at Caesars or Circa. The latest odds, posted on February 7th, are as follows: Caesars 95-1, Circa 60-1.
Get those odds while you can folks. It’s very doubtful those odds will be available in Derby Futures Pool 4. set to open on February 16th.
I thought his prep win was the most impressive!
Hi Bill;
I jumped on the 95-1 odds as soon as they were available; I agree, I think his odds should go down at some point soon; if not, I will continue to press!
Best of luck to you!
Good luck with that Mystik Dan bet, biggy312.
Billy D you are so on top of the big picture betting window. I busted my gut laughing because I too thought Mystik Dan’s effort looked pretty impressive and those guys in Vegas are usually more aware. MD looks good if he stays healthy and can duplicate that effort on a dry track. I believe he will. Good luck with your wager.
Mystik Dan and Honor Marie have run fast final 5/16s …I’m bullish on this crop, and dispite the Derby banning some contenders it looks like there could be a strong winner…
I talked with a couple of Japanese bloodstock guys last year, and they told me it’s much harder traveling from Japan to Louisville than from Japan to SoCal, last year they went Japan to Saudi Arabian to Dubai to Louisville,with Derma—-and he put up a strong showing, really—when you factor in his dismal trip….
I do not think there is one bit of shame in SD placing 6th in the KD, his first race on Americsn dirt.
How any of this year’s contenders for the Derby do you think could run in Dubai with one win and one show anc comeback I a matter of weeks to run in the Detby?
H*lls B*ells, American trainers including Baffert cannot seem to keep a horse going to race in 2 preps in 5 months.
I cannot wait to see Derma run this year. I have a feeling he is going to run huge. Ran a good race for 2nd at the breeders cup classic.
Off of a six month layoff, Derma Sotogake settled a few lengths behind fast fractions and came running—in the championship dirt races in the Northern Hemisphere…
This is not to rain on Fierceness parade and I do think he is a very fine horse but one thing you do have to remember this is a Todd Pletcher trained horse. I have gone back and looked at all 4 of Fierceness races and each was run at a different track (Saratoga, Belmont, Santa Anita and Gulfstream). 2 were in the “slop” and 2 on dry tracks. He has, as we all know, won one race in the slop and one on a dry track. From what I can see he wants to be on or very close to the lead. When he doesn’t make the lead he tries but then tends to give up. When he is on or near the lead he is a very tough competitor. So it seems to me if he doesn’t make the lead he is not going to be very competitive regardless of the racing surface. With that said, this is were Todd Pletcher comes in, Again this is just my opinion , Todd’s record of getting a “colt/horse” to go a 1 1/4 miles on the front end and win is not very good. If he can get a horse (Super Saver ,Vino Rosso, Always Dreaming won 1 1/4 mile but on the front end on a “very” muddy track )with a running style of midpack or closer he does much better. So unless he can get Fierceness to change his running style (which doesn’t look likely) or it rains like a mother on the first Saturday in May and Fierceness breaks on top at the start I am not giving much hope for him. He not going to be controlling the pace in KD that just doesn’t happen in a 20 horse field. Ok I have said my piece on that matter. I do like Nelson Mann analogy below of Mystik Dan and if his new running style can hold up on a ” dry ” track he maybe a ” Monster ” for the KD with that long stretch.
Front runners are a different breed so as to say.
Only the best of best front runner can fight once another horse is in front especially going a classic distance.
It all boils down to race shape. If in the derby there is other pace that can push a horse like Fierceness then his odds of winning are less, but for some reason he is left alone (Winning Colors) then his odds of winning increases.
I tend not to look much into breeding once the horse has demonstrated what he/she can do. The distance factor is shown in how fast a horse runs in the last 3/8 of a race, especially routes and classic distances. Determining how fast or slow a race was is a different matter, as there are many factors involved, but when one has done that for a long time, they have a better idea of how a race unfolds.
Good example is last weeks Withers, the track was playing so slow that it was almost impossible to determine how fast or slow the race was run, but when one has done that for a long time, they can come close to find the answer.
Fierceness’s best performance he wasn’t a front runner, he sat 2nd, and waited till mid day on the far turn ….
Fierceness is too talented to discard after one race. Drawing a line through it. Some believes no such thing
as an excuse.
The two bad races he ran have one thing in common.
Both times he did not break sharp and in doing so both the horses on his inside and outside drifted in towards him and he got the wind knocked out of him.
He should be in the top rankings, but what I fear is that if he does not break sharp in the derby with that large field, the same thing might happen.
Nelson, one thing you didn’t take account for Nysos…. Prat basically shut him down half way thru the stretch he
Two bad races Mike
Fierceness isn’t going to win the KD. Pletcher derby record is abysmal 65 starters,2 wins,2 seconds, 4 thirds. Win % of three, INTM % of 12%.
Just saw that Brisnet Speed Rating for Mystik Dan was a point above that of Nysos (101 vs. 100).
I would have thought that Nysos was a bit faster, but again the wet tracks tend to sway Brisnet to the higher side.Beyers was 4 points faster for Nysos though… Thoro-Graph figures could be more enlightening if it has a correction for wet tracks…
Not sure if some of you new before the Southwest about Mystik Dan’s lung infection last November causing a subsequent training intermission. It was a key piece of information to understand his subpar performances before his breakthrough race.
Mystik Dan’s maiden win was so fast that placed him in third place only below Nysos and Fierceness in the table of Speed Ratings (on dirt) last year. But Mystic Dan was dissapointing afterwards… and due to valid reasons I must say now.
With this context I am inclined to believe that changing his running style was key to his transformation. His next start will be validating his stance for sure…
I had labeled Mystic Dan (Goldencents) as a promising miler just like his sire was. However, after digging into his pedigree I found his maternal family to be plentiful of Classic credentials.
You can see at the bottom extraordinary 10-furlong horses like Tiznow, Siphon, Turkoman, Pleasant Colony and Conquistador Cielo… they need no introduction!
Mystik Dan damsire is Colonel John winner of the Travers and the second betting choice in the Derby won by the Big Brown.
We know that Into Mischief needs the aid of stamina laden mares to produce horses capable of staying. So, it could also be the case for his son Goldencents.
The nimble Mystik Dan is endorsed by winners of ten Grade 1 races at 10 furlongs in his distaff family. Horse of the Year Conquistador Cielo did not win at 10 furlongs but his 14-length romp in the muddy Belmont Stakes attests to his huge reserve of stamina.
If you are looking for a prospect who fits the profile of the last six Deby winners then Mystik Dan might very well be the one to follow.
He looked very good. Speed from Dad, distance from Mom is a good formula. Looking forward to the Ark Derby.
Yes Kabong… that was the formula that the great Secretariat proved to be a potent one…
Hey Nelson
We’re in lockstep with Mystik Dan moving forward on the Derby trail. BTW, when you mentioned that Mystik Dan is endorsed by winners of ten Grade 1 races, did you include Riva Ridge, the broodmare sire of Pride’s Crossing (Mystik Dan’s 6th dam)?
As of now, Mystik Dan is at top of my Derby watch list.
I forgot mentioning that those Classic and 10-F-horses belong to the first 5 generations… if we were to add Riva Ridge the count grows to twelve 10-Furlong-Grade ones.
Not sure this is a great credential, Nelson, but Mystik Dan’s nearest stakes winning relative, Revamp, won the 2100-meter Greek Derby in 2019 (slightly longer than the Derby).
A good point Ms Blacktype … I forgot to mention the accolades of the stamina load of the broodmares in his first 5 generations…
Yes Ms Blacktype… Mystik Dan’s second dam, Lady Siphonica, is the dam of Revamp (Tapizar) who became a leading 3-year-old in Greece after winning the Greek Derby at Markopoulo Park. Revamp was the only American horse in the race. He was exported to Greece in June 2019. He had run only 2 times with a 2nd and a win at 1400 meters before winning the Greek Derby by 11.5 lengths … he won 5 more times after that but I don’t know if he was champion 3-y-old there … BTW last week BH reported that horse racing in Greece has ended for economic reasons… no more Helenic racing. So you are right in overlooking Revamp wins there…
But back to US…
You may remember a full brother of Lady Siphonica named Siphonic who was considered a top 2002 Derby contender from California. He had authoratively won the Hollywood Futurity in his last 2-y-old race. Next he was 2nd (as the 1/9 favorite) in the San Felipe Stakes after stumbling badly at the break. He then finished 3rd (as the 2/5 choice) in the Santa Catalina behind Medaglia d’Oro … he injured an ankle there and was sidelined for more than 5 months…
Mystik Dan is so far going better than his grand-uncle Siphonic in their Derby ambitions…!
Nelson, thanks for fleshing out more on Revamp’s career. It’s sad to hear that racing is no more in Greece. There’s a spectacular cast-bronze horse and jockey in the National Archeological Museum in Athens that dates to 140 BC. I came home with a T-shirt with that image from a trip to Greece in 2022.
My quibble with Dan is that most of the other stakes performers on his dam side are middle distance horses. Willing to be proved wrong, but I think he fits best between 1 and 1 ⅛ miles at the outside. That said, both Speightstown and Goldencents have sired horses who won stakes at a distance, so it may be a moot point.
I just remember that Revamp continued running in France where he won two 1800-meter-races in 2020 and 2021 at Lyon. Finished his career with two runs at Meydan. His final start was a 4th behind Law of Peace on Feb 25, 2022 with a rating of 95 …
Not too bad the son of Lady Siphonica after all…
Steve, is there any chance CHD changes their stance about Baffert? I mean he might just take most of the Derby points which I presume he’s going to try and do. And having potentially the 2,3 or more of the top 3 YO’s out makes this an also ran Derby IMHO.
That would be a bigger upset than Rich Strike.
So you’re saying there’s a chance lol
Blake, at this moment I believe that the racing folks at Keeneland is the last option to persuade (talk someone into, bring someone around) those such as Churchill Downs CEO Carstanjen and Chairman Rankin that are so blinded by their misguided loathing and hostility toward Baffert to see the light of day. Even noted Baffert media adversaries like Ray Paulet opined just a couple of days ago on how this extra year was wrong and wrong for racing…it seems that Oaklawn Park got over their differences with Baffert years ago enough….the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission only gave Baffert a 90 day suspension and even the kangaroo court NYRA stopped Baffert’s suspension after a year even though Baffert never had a medical issuse with a horse that won 35 Grade 1 races in NY as well as 3 Belmont Stakes.
Lows and Highs last weekend. Obviously I was mystified like everyone by Fierceness’ effort and agree with you Steve, I think we have to toss this effort and wait and see how he handles his next outing. I would move him off of that track and send him elsewhere for his next effort. Ark Derby or Bluegrass would be better than staying in Florida but we will see. Mystic Dan put on the show of the day. He broke well and allowed Hernandez to put him where he wanted. He has tactical speed but as you noted, he’s figured out the rating game. The gradual slide up the rail and the timing on his move was a thing of beauty and all without a tap of the whip. A shake of the reins was all it took to ignite a burst up the rail with his competition moving over on him making it a tight spot. His confidence and smooth movement at that moment was very professional. How could you not like what he did? Nysos needs to be in Louisville on that first Saturday of May. For a sport that needs help, those buffoons in Louisville who hare still so focused on hating should be ashamed of their behavior. They’re poking holes in a ship that has clearly shown signs of taking on water. Time for all of those captain Blighs and their loyal followers to be set adift so that the sport can sail on without the dead weight of such useless anchors making foolish decisions for the entire industry.
There are two sides to every “travesty”. You see it as injustice to one BB, CDI sees it as BB poking the bear one too many times. Prior to the shenanigans in consecutive years, CDI had no issues with BB. He was liked and treated fairly well.
Getting DQ’s in both of their signature races might have been the start. Instead of saying “my bad” he decided to play Law and Order and gave outrages excuses…. over and over. For the past two years plus, he has created more controversy than he has positive news for CDI and the industry. Non racing fans know who BB is because of the negative press. The initial two years were for the positives….this year is for wasting their time and resources for having to go to court over and over. No one is above the rules. Zero tolerance is just that!
I’ll save you a seat in the launch.
What exactly has made BB the face of horse-racing? How many extra fans has he brought to this sport? Is the handle up or down over the last two years? Not holding my breath for an intelligible rebuttal.
Also, with the nonstop string of advocacy for BB and the 150th Derby, not one post, thread, article, or comment has mentioned the fact that Medina Spirit is dead. DEAD. The horse who is at the heart of it all, the one who was found to have banned drugs in his system is dead from an apparent heart attack. How is that a battle cry for justice?
CDI has made Baffert a sympathetic character. Overzealous persecution can do that.
Just like everything else in this country (current state), where up is down, down is left, and left is right. Hypocrisy at its finest. The fact that we are supposed to pretend something is not there even though we can see it with our own two eyes.
He’s lucky he wasn’t banned for life and if he was, maybe our sport would be uplifted instead of having the ominous cloud of doom upon it.
Here’s an idea, maybe BB should have played by the rules in the first place – for the sake of the horse – and he wouldn’t be in this mess. Maybe if BB wasn’t the “face of horse racing” our sport would actually be growing.
A bad case of BDS?
Actually…..BB zealots like are mindless sheep.
You
Amazing how far some go defending BB 24/7 ,when not even aware or caring they exist. Lol
I’d ask you to come in off of that ledge but I don’t think that is what’s best.
LOL, Hypocrisy at its best. Your initial post had you teetering on the ledge… CDI ruffled more than a few feathers with the EL Kabong. Have a pleasant evening.
How many of Baffert’s horses besides Medina Spirit were drugged and failed post race exams? Baffert (and his barn) brought this on himself. No sympathy from me whatsoever.
Interesting point about shifting Fierceness to another track. Frosted disliked Gulfstream Park so they sent him back to New York where he won the Wood Memorial.
Pletcher will know best, but that is exactly what came to mind when I saw him disinterested in wading through that mess of a track. I think he’ll appreciate something more natural.
By the way, you may know better than I do, has Fierceness grown over winter? He looked small in comparison to others in the Holy Bull Stakes but this could be deceptive watching the race from the internet. Just something that crossed my mind when watching the race.
If I remember well, Frosted had a breathing problem hampering his performance in the FoY. There were other issues I can not recall now…
Steve commended McLaughin for the corrective work he did with the son of Tapit to convincgingly win the Wood after Upstar defeated him two times at Gulfstream Park.
Nelson, Frosted had a trapped epiglottis in the Fountain of Youth Stakes but not in the Holy Bull Stakes. Frosted couldn’t catch Upstart because of Gulfstream Park’s design formation for the race etc.
In the Wood Memorial, Frosted had a jockey change with Joel Rosario aboard along with the additional blinkers. Frosted was able to go wide and clear on the Aqueduct track, where he had broken his maiden, and sail away to victory.
A good Derby Dozen as there is.
It must be tough trying to Justify keeping Fierceness in the Top Spot. I understand as there really isn’t anyone else so far to put there.
Locked has a fever, Sierra Leone has only 1 win and has not run yet.
You can’t put Nysos on it or Muth.
I just have a very hard time with a horse that can not handle adversity. I don’t even feel that he was bumped that hard. Many horses have run to win after an incident like that. He just didn’t run. Slow is the word and GP was not that slow on the card.
Maybe this is a year to look East ….Far East!
We need another Derma Sotogake. As for Fierceness and adversity remember all the Derby winners who won on or right off the lead had no adversity. Just got to get lucky at the start and put him right on the lead or lapped on the leaders.
Steve, have you got any opinion on Forever Young, who has won his three preps in Japan? Also, what did you make of Born Noble’s mini stumbles at Gulfstream Saturday? I could swear I saw him mini-stumble once on the backstretch and twice on in the home stretch. Haven’t had a second look at the recording myself, but may get to it this weekend.
Steve, you have my sympathy trying to determine which colt goes where during this liminal period. I thought Catching Freedom might go higher than you have placed him due to the results of the Southwest Stakes. Catching Freedom having easily disposing of both Mystik Dan, Lagynos, and Just Steel in the Smarty Jones Stakes. Moreover, Catching Freedom had a troubled trip in allowance at Churchill Downs, prior to the Smarty Jones Stakes, where he was beaten by Parchment Party, First World War and Lagynos but not by much.
Since that allowance race Parchment Party has left the stage, First World War won the Kitten’s Joy Stakes and as mentioned above Lagynos was sixth in the Smarty Jones Stakes while Mystik Dan was 5th and Just Steel was second in the same race. You can accept Kenny McPeek’s reasoning for Mystik Dan’s flop in the Smarty Jones Stakes but Just Steel’s performance gives credit to Catching Freedom’s credentials.
Is Mystik Dan twice the colt in the wet? I think we’ll have to keep that question open until he performs same on a dry track. I’m a doubter until I see the evidence.
What is happening with the Risen Star Stakes? I checked Equibase and it stated: closed with 7 nominations; pending on late mail. Let’s hope ‘late mail’ adds some more big names to the dance.
Thoroughly enjoyed reading your assumptions and predictions as usual, Steve. Your hard work makes the runs to the roses twice as exciting even if the future looks mirrored in smoke at this stage.
Davids, I was also confused with Equibase’s nominees for the Risen Star… I was expecting to see Snead, Catching Freedom, Track Phantom, Resilience, Honor Marie, Hall of Fame, Real Men Violin and Sierra Leone (at least) nominated…
There must be some kind of mix up there…!
Anyway, that will be surely sorted out the next few days..
*Only Sierra Leone is in Equibase nomination report
Nelson, exactly!! If that’s the final field the race has gone from ‘mouth watering’ to ‘ho hum’. Perhaps the average performance by Ferocious on the weekend has given some trainers pause to contemplate a Florida Derby or Fountain of Youth assault on the roses.
Thanks David..I think I did move him up a little but also remember Mystik Dan wasnt the same horse he was in the Southwest. I am hoping to move CF up again. This is a good slow week to reevaluate everyone.
Steve, it must be extremely frustrating for you not being able to, or more correctly worthwhile, not being able to include the Bob Baffert colts. Where would they be in the Derby Rankings, the top 3 to 5?
If Fierceness must have everything go his way, I suspect he will not be a derby winner. What derby has everything go perfect?
For winners with his running style, all of them. Chrome, Authentic, Always Dreaming, Justify, War Emblem. And you can include Maximum Security if he didnt bother another horse. All had perfect trips with no adversity. Name me any Derby winner who had adversity. That’s how you win the Derby.
Alysheba …..
I said with his running style. One closer 37 years ago?
You could be right, in which case the most important piece for him is not talent, but luck.
FIERCENESS:
The subject colt is not your regular longshot winner of the BCJ. Any attempt to highlight him as otherwise does an injustice to historic record. His win should have raised a litany of Red Flags despite his impressive MSW win followed by his poor effort on a sloppy surface in the Champane.
In the list of the last 10 longshot winners previously provided. none on the list was defeated by 20L in their race immediately prior to the BCJ. Subject to correction, Storm The Court had the previous worse finish in a race ahead of a BCJ win. He finished 3rd by 8 1/4Lin the American Pharaoh. But at least he finished on the board.
CHAMPANE TO BCJ VICTORY ROUTE:
2017 – Good Magic – Finished 2nd in the Champagne by a 1/2L; Won BCJ by 4 1/2L
2012 – Shanghia Bobby – Won the Champagne by 5; Won BCJ by a nose.
2010 – Uncle Mo – Won the Champagne by 4 1/2L; Won BCJ by 4 1/4L.
2007 – War Pass – Won the Champagne by 1 1/2L; Won BCJ by 4 3/4L.
1995 – Unbridled’s Song – Finished 4th in the Champagne by a 5 1/4L; Won BCJ by NK
1990 – Fly So Free – Won the Champagne by L; Won BCJ by L
1989- Rhytm – Finished 2nd in the Champagne by a 1/2L; Won BCJ by 4 1/2L
1986 – Is It True – Finished 2nd in the Champagne by; Won BCJ by
A FAULTFINDING/FACTFINDING CAPTIOUS CRITIC
The above would be me. But that’s who I am. Facts matter to me, particularity those of a historic Kind.
Of the 8 horses above that exited the Champagne to win the BCJ. None recorded an off the board finish by 20L whilst only finishing ahead of a 99/1 entrant.
Four of the 8 didn’t win the Champane. The worse performance of that quartet was recorded by Unbridled’s Song, who finished 4th by 5 1/4L. He returned to win the BCJ by a NK.
So, what do we have in Fierceness folks?
A BCJ winner with the worst record in a race immediately ahead of the race.
The 9th Champane participant to win the BCJ next out.
An off the board Champane participant, with the worst performance record won BCJ next out by the widest margin of any Champane participant and a top 6 winning time.
There was absolutely nothing normal about Fiercenesss performance in the BCJ. Those that have chosen to place him on a pedestal and shower him with accolades, appeared to have ignored pertinent historic facts. These historic facts, pointed to the improbability of such an explosive win.
Fierceness is from a barn famous for its representatives delivering explosive performances following poor to mediocre ones. There are many examples to choose from, but I will leave you with the representative below.
,
DANZA
Finished 3rd in the 2013 Saratoga Special. He then disappeared for 7 months. He returned in an AOC over 7F and finished 3rd by 7 1/2L In his 2nd start after the 7 months lay off, he exploded in the final furlong of the A K Derby (G1) to win at 41/1.
It’s not hate, it’s just cold facts.
I do like your cold facts Counter Point. However:
1. Fierceness was so far off his game I am willing to toss his Holy Bull. He still has posted the fastest race of all 3 year olds.
2. Danza could’ve won his Kentucky Derby. That was a tough trip and he still finished 3rd. R.I.P. Danza.
Meaningless facts after the fact. Pointless dribble. Very few Kentucky Derby winners win them all in spectacular fashion. A clunker along the way is perfectly acceptable, especially the first off a long layoff. Fierceness is loaded with talent and I don’t buy into any unfounded accusations about the barn. Cheers, I’m going to grab a cold one and wait for my flowers and chocolates.
Thanks Steve on your 3rd week ranking.
There will always be debates on the ranking and that’s fine.
I will say that Dornoch (not Door knob like someone put it somewhere else) deserves to be ranked much higher.
From last weeks races, I will also come out and say that Hades although may get into the derby on points and if there is no mishaps will not hit the Board.
However Mystic Dan may be the real deal from horses who ran last Saturday.
I had already made my point about Fierceness in last weeks comments and it matches the points you have made.
He deserves another chance. His race rating was way too bad to be true.
I have him where is because he is still green…with lead changes, ducking in and bouncing off the rail. His first start back in FOY will tell a lot.
From his 4 starts this far, FIERCENESS has proven to be very inconsistent, and I don’t think we want the #1 ranked Derby hopeful to have that trait.
On the other hand, HADES is 3 of 3, and if that is not consistency, I don’t know what is. Doesn’t matter if his victories are visually impressive or not. What matters is he gets the job done. And he just beat the erstwhile top ranked 3-yr-old. Horses run against other horses, not against time. If his winning time was not good enough, the same can be said about FIERCENESS’ losing time.
Rank HADES #1 for having beaten the erstwhile champion horse. Let others prove that they deserve to get back the #1 spot in the future. Asking HADES to provide more proof that he deserves #1 on the current ranking is unfair.
Hi Steve
The fact that you have Hades listed at #13 leads me to believe that you have no reservations about him being a gelding.
Is it reasonable to assume that you believe a gelding has the same chance on winning the Derby, as a stallion?
Thanks Steve.
I emailed the farm asking why he was gelded but havent heard back yet. Some say I have him too low. We just havent had enough geldings to make any opinion
Thanks for the reply, Steve.
Steve,
Steve a longtime since I have contributed to your column. Least to say it has been a distressing last few months for me. It started the day after the Breeders Cup with my 82 year old brother suffering a catastrophic stroke leaving his right side paralyzed. He and I usually talked weekly about the horses. But now with the stroke his interest is no longer there (for that matter any sports). Other family members were in an out of the hospitals with one ailment or another. A home renovation project that should have only taken days ended up taking weeks (Seemed like Murphy came visiting every other day). Then my wife and came down with respiratory issues ( Not COVID) that lasted 2 weeks. And now just recently started another home renovation project so needless to say horsing racing has not been a priority. Well enough about my trevails and on to the horses. This past weekend started catching up on it. Watched most of the 3 year old races this past weekend. Totally impressed with Nysos race. He looked so professional !!! Who knows how good he can be. Hope he stays healthy. Baffert really looks to have powerhouse of 3 year olds. Fierceness looked like a horse that needed a race. Like you pointed out what’s up with that time !!! Will not fault Johnny V’s ride. Will see how he does in his next race. I am expecting improvement. The Southwest being an offtrack not sure if I could read too much out of the results just yet. Mystik Dan ran a lights out race but may have found the best route for that racing surface. Others on the other hand may have not liked the racing surface, Only time will tell. As far as the other races not a whole lot to say about them. The next race for a lot of those horses should give us a clearer answer on who is a contender and who is a pretender.
I was glad to see that Baffert’s owners stuck with him this year and will watch with interest the pre Derby races that their horses will be entered in. As like the other 2 years I will not bet any of Churchill Downs racetrack this year because of their treatment of Baffert.
Steve as always keep up your great work. Your previous columns were all gems (Especially the ones on Arts and Letters and Cody’s Wish).
Until your next column have an awesome week.
I’m very sorry to hear about all your misfortunes and I hope your brother recovers and can use racing as an escape from his troubles. In the meantime please feel free to join us and talk racing. Good luck with everything. I’m sorry Nysos is banned. The Derby trail needs him badly.
Thanks Steve for your kind words. I will try too be a more frequent contributor in the future. I do have a question about 2 horses. First, is Arabian Knight. He has not had a workout since the Breeders Cup. Is he retired? Is he hurt? Have not seen anything written about him since the Breeders Cup. The other horse is Idiomatic. Is she running in 2024? Is she off to the breeding shed? If she was retired to the breeding shed would love to see her bred to Justify. The resulting foal would probably have the biggest hind quarters ever produced for a thoroughbred The resulting foal would not only a powerful runner but a smart one too !!!!
I’m very sorry you and your family have gone through so much lately. Will be holding a good thought for your brother. I don’t know what’s going on with Arabian Knight, but I did read in a 1/22/24 Bloodhorse article that Idiomatic should be running again this year.
Wow didn’t expect to see Fierceness still in the top spot. That performance was….not good.
Although I also have no idea who’d I would put there now, nobody has shown anything magical yet besides Nysos who’s trainer is persona non grata.
Still early and a lot more to come to shake it out
If you have no idea who you would put on top then you know my dilemma and shouldnt be that surprised hes still there. Hopefully one of us can find a horse to put there.
How about HADES? He is a perfect 3 of 3, and beat FIERCENESS last time out.
In comparison, FIERCENESS is 2 of 4, although his BCJ win was impressive, but wasn’t MYSTIK DAN’s latest win as impressive?
FIERCENESS might have beaten MUTH and LOCKED, two of the more popular 3-yr-olds, but HADES has beaten the erstwhile top-ranked FIERCENESS decisively, after looking him in the eye at the top of the stretch.
Thanks Steve, first cup of coffee and Haskin starts the day well. Second cup and the bialy comes after the read. Early days with some hiccups is par for the course. Still a wilderness of mirrors for me. Love the Fierceness analysis, humility and apathy is an interesting combination.
Its hard getting a real New York bialy. Hope yours is authentic
It’s close but no CIGAR
The best bagel joint in the Chicago area is aptly named New York Bagel & Bialy. The real deal.
You’re lucky.
I have to ask, what is a bialy?
A bialy is a round, made from bagel dough that is not boiled just baked with an onion and poppy seed mixture in the center. DELISH
Sounds good! Tks
Thank you Steve. Always enjoyable reading. I wanted to address a different topic. W/ horses running so few times and usually for one year, it’s becoming more difficult for fans to become attached to a horse..like they were gor horses who ran 7,8,9 times a year or, at least, multiple years. We all know why. This is even more reason why handlers should be more transparent with fans who are trying to follow a horse. A good example was Jess’s Dream…a colt whose debut was anticipated more than most due to Rachel and Curlin. His race that day at the Spa was memorable, to say the least, a debut at 9 furlongs in which he didn’t get out of the gate, gave the leader about 15 lengths, and came thundering home. And then…..he disappeared. For a year. With not a peep from Barbara and her team. The same can be said for Faustin last year but also many other horses in between. This year, it’s The Wine Steward, whose only loss after a rare 4 races as a two year old, was a great tussle with Locked. TWS looks to be a fine colt who is not afraid of a fight. But not a word from his handlers. Is he hurt? Taking a break? I compare this lack of information to say, the Yankees drafting a first round pick. The player hits .400 in the minors and is riding through the ranks with ease. The fans eagerly await his major league debut and then…he disappears. Nobody knows where he went. The Yankees say nothing, have no comment. Can you imagine if that happened? We need to do better as an industry if we want to draw in more fans. This is one way in which we can do better. Thanks for listening.
I hear ya Matt. It can be very frustrating
Matt, I had read recently (Horse Racing Nation) that The Wine Steward has been galloping for the last couple of weeks according to Mike Maker. I have TWS in my Virtual Stable and have yet to be notified of any recorded workout.
Mr. Maker said that it was planned after the BCJ that The Wine Steward get a two month break before being put back in training. At this point, I’m not optimistic that we’ll see him on the Derby trail.
I’ll say, like you, the lack of transparency leaves a lot to be desired when trying to follow these horses.
Very much appreciated.
I’m still upset I lost the contest to name Rachel and Curlin’s foal. The name I entered was ALOTTALIVEUPTO (using Rachel’s dam’s name, Lotta Kim)
Nelson and Davids, Casa Farm was listed for sale by Kirkpatrick Realty a couple of years ago for $5.1 million.
The listing description was as a historical property and home site, horse farm or residential.
I do not know who purchased the property, only that it was sold recently.
I also do not know the status of the horses owned by Susie Atkins other than Zetta Z as previously reported. Usually when a farm is sold there is an announcement or notification of a dispersal sale.
Zetta Z is listed in the Fasig-Tifton Mid Winter Mixed Sale that is being held Feb 05 and Feb 06. She is not bred for 2025. She has 7 named foals, Nysos being the last. No record of a registered foal or birth of a foal for 2022, 2023, and 2024.
The farm had been in continuous operation since 1820. Hopefully it was acquired by someone who plans to continue operating as a breeding farm.
Zetta Z is in foal to Cyberknife for 2025.
Evidently an error in catalogue.
She will be the last hip run through today.
Saw videopf her this morning at the sale.
She is a lovely mare.
Thanks Lynda, you can view the farm for sale on YouTube. Search for “For Sale: The former Mare Haven Farm – Casa Farm with the address of the farm.
A friend thinks Tami Bobo now owns the Farm, named Horse Farms Forever. Hope that helps.
Hello Davids,
Yes, I saw the video of the farm on the Kirkpatrick website.
I will check out the new owner farm name.
The area around Lexington is so beautiful.
Made several trips there in late 80’s and early 90’s with a friend who bred Arsbians.
Paramount Arabians was equally beautiful.
Have a good friend who moved from GA to the Lexington area on a small farm.
She has a couple of broodmares, raised a couple of foals snd has ownership in a couple of Thoroughbreds.
She also volunteers at Oid Friends
Living the good life for sure in her retirement!
Your friend has the life that many wanted to have growing up. Good for her, such gorgeous country while living out a childhood dream.
Thanks Lynda for the summary.
I was more interested to learn if Susie Atkins is still owning some Thoroughbreds or if she has already completely left the business.
Seems to me like Nysos’ dam is her last (breeding) asset she had sold…
Anyway, I am sure that more details about her is going to surface as Nysos becomes a little more famous down the road…!
Nelson, I looked for and asked around but was unable to find any information that she was still breeding horses.
Zettta Z sold to Coolmore for $2 million.
Justified indeed…!
In foal to Cyberknife
I had to smile after reading at BH: Dam of Nysos “Nysos is on the Road to the Kentucky Derby by winning the Robert B. Lewis Stakes.”
In 2021, Zetta Z sold for $35,000. In just over 2 years her value has skyrocketed to $2 million. Not even N.Y. real estate appreciation can match that. Ha ha
“How does a horse go from a 105 Beyer figure to around a 80 after training brilliantly up to the race?” It’s the same way a $20k claimer sets a track record (something I’ve seen a few times over the years). In the right fields, with the right trips, they get brave & perform to the best of their ability. The rest of the time, when things don’t go exactly their way, they pick up their marbles & go home. It’s what separates the greats from the good/very good. He may outgrow it, but I’ve seen very few who do.
I should hav said how does a horse of this caliber. Its much more common in cheaper horses
In regard to Hades. He would have been ranked higher if I had known his Beyer figure was going to be bumped up from a dismal 84 to a decent 90. At least that’s what I heard. That’s why I try not to be influenced by Beyers but it was all there was after the race. If you’re going to change a number by 6 points then dont rush to put out a phony one. All these horses will be reevaluated next week when there will be more time to think about the overall picture. What is sad is that in another year Baffert likely would be No. 1 and 2 with Maymun possibly in the top 5.
Steve: The upgrades speed figure is confirmed. A story originally published on Hades’ win on the DRF was updated to say the Beyer was 90.
Steve, if I may, let me say this about the Baffert 3 yos…..
I think we all agree that the Derby would be enhanced if horses like Nysos, Muth, et al, were part of the conversation as contenders for the Derby. The fact is they are prevented from competing in the Derby because Bob Baffert is denied entry of any of his horses at CDI tracks due to an indefinite suspension by Churchill. Is it fair? No, but CDI owns the Kentucky Derby race and has every right to establish the conditions for entry. While owners being loyal to Bob Baffert is admirable, what about their horses who have a chance to add a Derby victory to their legacy? Don’t they deserve a shot at a chance of a lifetime? Baffert has had his glory days with his great success in winning multiple Derbys and no one will ever take those trophies away from him. There are many accomplished trainers (some who have never won a Derby) who would be more than glad to apply their training skills to prepare a contender for the big race. So, I say give someone else a chance to train these potential stars for the Derby, at the very least for the sake of the horse.
This “diluted Derby” is due to the shortsighted view of the owners who made the decision to keep their horses in Bob’s care.
The Kentucky Derby is the most prestigious race in America with a purse this year of $5,000,000. I believe that Bob, being the fine horseman that he is, would want his “best of class” 3 yos. to have their chance at glory even if transferred temporarily to another trainer. Churchill, the owners and especially the horses all lose in this “gotcha” game. It’s a sad state of affairs.
Thanks Steve for letting me get this off my chest.
Dewey,
Your post was directed to Steve, but I request your approval to indulge you ahead of his response. A few questions and some comments.
Is There such a thing as a Diluted Kentucky Derby?
If you owned a winner of the Kentucky Derby, would you characterize it as winning a diluted renewal of the race, if highly regarded entrants were absent?
Would you have classified the 2019 Kentucky Derby as diluted if Game Winner, Roadster and Improbable were absent?
Would you have classified the 2001 Kentucky Derby as diluted if Point Given was absent?
Would you have classified the 2010 Kentucky Derby as diluted if Lookin At Lucky was absent?
Are you aware that the 2022 & 2023 running of the Kentucky Derby recorded the biggest handles in the history of the race, with 2023 establishing a record?
None of Bob Baffert’s 3 entrants in the 2019 KD hit the board in the original order of finish. But many would have considered it travesty if all three were excluded. Point Given and Lookin At Lucky were pot time favorites in their respective KD. Both finished off the board.
In 2001 Point Given whilst returning $0.80 on the dollar as the favorite. If there was a vote to either exclude Point Given or Monarchos, the 6th choice in the wagering. The overwhelming votes would have favored a Monarchos exclusion. Monarchos not only defeated Pint Given but he also recorded the 2nd fastest winning time in KD history.
Given what has unfolded over the last 5 years. I wouldn’t be so assertive that highly regarded contenders are either guaranteed to wear the roses or even hit the board.
The record books have no asterisk or any other indicators that denote a KD winner emerged from a weak and/or diluted field. Any such indicator would discredit and be to the demerit of certain winners of the great race. Many of them on 1st Saturday in May, not only outran their odds but also produced the race of their careers.
The Kentucky Derby will always be the Kentucky Derby no matter the composition of the field that faces the starter.
There’s a tired old saying “It is what it is..”….you could say this year the Derby field “Isn’t what it isn’t”….you say it doesn’t matter about the banned horses, because Game Winner and Point Given ran out? That’s past history, and they RAN in the Derby……had they been banned it would have been big news, Point Given won the next two legs…sure The Derby is a good race—but if Bob’s three year olds continue winning it will be a story—
Counter Point, thank you for your comments. Perhaps my use of the word diluted was misplaced. I would submit the word tarnished (to lose its shine for not having the best possible field). I did not intend to diminish winning the Derby in any way, shape or form. The point I was trying to make was to place blame with the owners for not trying to make the Derby. They were given the choice of accepting the terms of earning Derby points by changing trainers. They chose fialty with Bob Baffert over their horses chances to win the Derby. If I’m in their shoes (I should be so lucky), I want my horse to have a shot to be in the Derby. Lest we forget, it’s all about the horse, after all.
The ineligibility of Bob Baffert’s 3 yos. has already had an effect on this year’s road to the Derby and will continue to be a distraction in the weeks ahead. Sigh!
Hello Dewey,
BB’s horses were supposed to be allowed to run this year. They were within their prevue to extend their Ban because it is a private entity.
That being said, all oh the Horses that were temporary placed with other trainers have basically flopped. He new they would not be able to run in the Derby and did not train them to peak on the first Saturday in May. He is most likely the best trainer at doing that.
Transferring horses is detrimental to the horse for many reasons.
His owners decided it was in the best interest of their Horses to keep them with BB.
The Derby is one race. Name me a Derby winner that has been a good horse after the Derby. Other than bb horses , not that many.
I don’t feel the derby is the All That any more. I have attended over 25 of them. I look forward to the Preakness and the Summer races.
Hey, Eric! I appreciate you sharing your opinion on the Baffert matter. You make some valid points about transferring horses from trainer to trainer. My opinion of this whole fiasco derives from selfish reasons. If I were an owner with a good 3 y.o., having a Kentucky Derby trophy on my mantle would mean the world to me and if I had to move my horse to enter, I would. I look forward to and enjoy the running of the Derby every year. It’s still very special to me.
Now, moving on, we must look for a winner among the Derby hopefuls. For the time being, I’m leaning toward Honor Marie as my best bet. He has a good pedigree, toughness and a sound mind which will serve him well in the run for the roses. Anxious to see him run in the Risen Star.
Who do you like, Eric?
Whenever a horse who did not participate in the Kentucky Derby wins the Preakness Stakes, I put an asterisk on the win because it is literally an ambush of horses who ran 2 weeks prior. That was the case when Early Voting beat Epicenter in the 2022 Preakness Stakes, and National Treasure beat Mage in the 2023 PS. It was so easy picking Early Voting and National Treasure because they are almost of the same class as the KD horses, and they were fresh for the PS.
If BB wants almost total legitimacy on Nysos possible win in the PS, it is best to have the horse run on the first Saturday of May in another track’ It might not be practical but it is perfectly honorable, and it will not give the KD horses an excuse. If Nysos wins the 3 races (including the Belmont Stakes), its connections can claim an unofficial Triple Crown for the horse.
LOL!!! Putting an Asterik on a Preakness win….Baffert is all business. Fine the path to least resistance and make money. Turn a negative to a positive is commendable. Owners know understand that other journeys for their outstanding talented horses is more lucrative, safer for the horse, and pays massive dividends in the future.
So you are saying that BB is all business and no honor?
In addition, before you laugh at my putting an asterisk on ambushed Preakness wins, I suggest you spend some time working on your spelling and grammar. You probably meant:
“FinD the path OF least resistance and make money. TurnING a negative INto a positive is commendable. Owners NOW understand that other journeys for their outstanding talented horses ARE more lucrative, safer for the horse, and PAY massive dividends in the future.”
If you cannot even construct 3 sentences without committing 6 errors, you have no right to laugh at others, lest we all laugh at your spelling and grammar! Besides, all you wrote are nothing but motherhood statements that you probably copied from somewhere else and pasted here.
Jeff, your leader lives and breathes for the Derby. Amusing many of his followers now undercuts first Saturday in May as
nothing special. Maybe that goes as well for Breeders Cup,since last yr. he failed to fire.
Since you’re thinking asterisks, let’s put them on the last 3 KD winners? Asterisk should have a footnote baffert, greatest triple crown trainer of all time, horses didn’t participate….
I don’t care about your asterisks. Just leave my asterisks alone.
If Nysos were to win the Preakness and Belmont, it would make Churchill Downs look very bad, and they would forever be blamed for depriving the world of a likely Triple Crown winner. That might give Baffert more satisfaction than winning all three races, which he’s already done twice.
Jiffy, ‘the chosen one’ brought all this down on himself. If he doesn’t get act together,might be a little bit worse regarding CD actions.
Did you honestly think his disregard of rules for years would simply go on forever?
Baffert is playing chess and CD is playing checkers. CD is only hurting their product. In a couple years, nobody will care about Rich Strike and Mage were KD winners . In fact with his blast off start to 2024, Bob’s National Treasure just surpassed those horses. The owners with their talented horses and breeders will start diminishing a KD winner sooner than you think.
Lol. You, like many reside in a world of delusion. Your hero and his attys. got throttled over past three years,losing every suit. Seems they
played chess on his head. How did Breeders Cup work out last year.
Case in point rich strike stud fee is $2k. Any breeders getting rich there?
Steve, I appreciate the dilemma you faced in preparing this week’s rankings. You are absolutely right that neither Fierceness nor Locked has yet solidified a hold on either or the top two spots. But who would you put in place of them? Nobody else has earned it either.
We’re all trying to make sense of a bunch of lightly raced horses in the make or break month of February. What’s even more shocking is that the trainers of inexperienced horses like Hades and Mystik Dan are already talking about making only one more start before the Derby. That’s crazy thinking.
I rearranged my Dozen based more on potential than earned merit. I really liked the way Catching Freedom won the Smarty Jones, so he’s my number one, followed by impressive first time winner Speak Easy. He looked very professional in that start, with a whopping Beyer figure to match. Fierceness I pegged at #3 (benefit of the doubt) followed by Honor Marie, Mystik Dan, Locked, and Dornoch. And in addition to a few more of the usual suspects, I put Just Steel back in at No. 12. He may not be able to win at a mile and a quarter, but that horse has guts.
I hope we’ll all know more in a couple of weeks. Thank you for continuing to write this column — we your readers enjoy it so much.
Yes, Ms Blacktype, I think Chasing Freedom’s win in the Smarty Jones Stakes may have been unappreciated by many considering the races that followed the horses he had defeated in that race. I’ve changed my opinion and consider Chasing Freedom a much stronger competitor.
Speak Easy and Honor Marie are my main hopes though.
Hi Steve
Another great analysis on your top 15 horses on the Derby trail. I was somewhat surprised to see Mystik Dan ranked at #7.
Based on his impressive performance in the Southwest, I expected to see him close to the top. In modern times, only two geldings have won the KD, Funny Cide (2003) and Mine that Bird (2009), so you would think that Hades, ranked at #13 is up against it. But what do I know?
I have to disagree with u Steve . Firecness had no excuse to lose that race other than he didn’t have any kick when he needed it and flattened out. Giving him the benefit of the doubt in my opinion is ok if it happened once but it now has happened twice and if he can’t handle adversity than it’s only going to get thought. Hades showing he could go toe to toe with Fierceness and then still have another gear shows to me that he deserves to move up as we are judging 2024 form and he answered the call with another gear. I’m not saying Hades should be number 1 but he certainly needs to be up higher. Can’t keep giving some of thes colts a hall pass until they run. You also moved Mystic Dan right up after th3 southwest which was run in the slop and that colt showed very little prior. At least Hades is undefeated and once again jumped into the deep end and produced a win . I know it’s early but old school rule of thumb suggests regression does not a derby winner make . Just my opinion
Please allow me to chime in for a moment, Mark.
Occasionally, on Derby Day, the Churchill track comes up sloppy. Over the past 19 years, the track was listed as Sloppy (Sealed) on 7 occasions. In my view, if that were to happen this year, it would be beneficial for a horse like Mystik Dan, who has the proven ability to relish an off track as he showed in the Southwest Stakes. Just my thoughts.
BTW, Mystic Dan is a homebred colt, (Gasaway/Hamby) which should add another check mark to his resume’.
Over the past 20 years, 50% of the Derby winners were homebred.
It’s a matter of opinion. As Steve mentioned, the horse had his head turned to the left….then he got a big bump from one side, followed by a bump from the other side, followed by another from the first side. If you’ve ever competed in sports, specifically contact sports, then you’ll know getting hard bumps will knock the wind out of you. Who’s to say that did not happen. After all, they are not machines.
I will give this horse the benefit of the doubt and see how he does in his next race. Besides, his futures odds just went up a few clicks. I am certain his true backers won’t flinch one bit.
Agreed!
It has nothing to with flinching but the colt does have some flaws and i think you cant give a hall pass for the number 1 spot if he regressed in his first race. Does it mean he has no chance of winning the derby? heck no It just means he doesnt deserve the top spot thats all.
I believe McVay is a good horse! One start and then shelved, till his good 2nd vs Maymun ….brought back in two weeks and was pushed hard early, vs Nysos…..appeared to be faltering on the far turn but he gathered himself to continue on for fourth place—still a maiden but “in John (Shirreffs) I trust”—-he’s a big colt, now with proper spacing I expect he will step way up—one big effort will get him into the Derby picture…..
Matthew, I was surprised that Mc Vay had been entered in a stakes race within 2 weeks of his last start, especially by John Sherriffs. Any chance they head to New York for an easier prep race?
Hi Steve – Liberal Arts ran well off of the layoff in the SW to finish 3rd and picked up some valuable derby points. He galloped out past the winner , so next time out at 1 1/8 he should appreciate the stretch out. R.Medina said after the race that he has A lot of confidence in LA and is looking forward to his next race which will be the ARK Derby or the Bluegrass. I am glad to have locked up LA in KDFW2.
Hi Steve.
Thanks for the rankings.
If I have a Derby winner hopeful this year it is Honor Marie.
So far he checks off all the boxes for me without going into detail.
Mostly though it is pedigree that you have enlightened us with all the details.