Kentucky Derby Rankings – Week 4
Will we see a rising star in the Risen Star on Saturday? With the No. 1 spot up for grabs this week and so many horses who are ranked in the top 15 running in the Risen Star, something has to give, and we expect a whole new look Derby Rankings next week when it posts Tuesday. ~ Steve Haskin
Derby Rankings: February 12, 2024 – Week 4
By Steve Haskin
1—Fierceness (Todd Pletcher, City of Light – Nonna Bella, by Stay Thirsty)
Looking at this seemingly enigmatic horse in simple terms, at this point in his brief up and down career, based on what we have seen he has a 50% chance of becoming a superstar and a 50% chance of becoming a 3-year-old bust. It will be his next start that will go a long way in determining which half will define his career. What hasn’t been discussed as much as one would think is the mind-boggling pace of the Holy Bull and if that had any relevance in the outcome. There are so many questions that need answering. How does a horse whose average fractions of :22 3/5, :45 4/5, and 1:10 in his two mammoth victories can go :25, :50 2/5, and 1:14 1/5 over a track that had been playing fast all day. And to compound that, not be able to put away a horse with two career starts, one of them against Florida-breds. Off such lethargic fractions how and why did they come home so slowly? Why didn’t a horse as fast as Fierceness have a six-length lead down the backstretch even by default? Even if he did open up by six lengths he still would have been going 11 lengths slower than he did in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. If there wasn’t a timer malfunction it just doesn’t make sense. With so many baffling aspects to this race, and this horse, it makes no sense to put someone new at No. 1 right now just to fill the spot when a legitimate No. 1 likely will surface in Saturday’s loaded Risen Star Stakes. One thing we know for certain is that he has run two fluke races. The question is, were they his wins or his losses?
2—Sierra Leone (Chad Brown, Gun Runner – Heavenly Love, by Malibu Moon)
I believe he may have the most upside of any of the Derby hopefuls, and looks to have all the tools you look for in a classic horse. I moved him up to No. 2 because he now will be starting before Locked, and if he can run a huge race against what promises to be the toughest field of the year in Saturday’s Risen Star Stakes it would put him in a position to be ranked No. 1. He doesn’t need to win, especially in this strong a field, but I do want to see that explosive turn of foot we saw last year and if he has developed into a more professional 3-year-old after displaying moments of greenness last year. I still believe he would have won the Remsen if he had stayed out in the middle of the track and not angled all the way in to engage Dornoch. Whether it was his doing or his jockey’s I can’t say for sure, but it shouldn’t have happened. As a point of reference from that race, he did finish almost five lengths ahead of third-place finisher Drum Roll Please, who came back to win the Jerome Stakes by open lengths. If anyone believes he just may have gotten a little tired at the end of the Remsen, it should be noted that the bottom of his dam’s pedigree is loaded with speed and sprinters. Perhaps that’s where he gets his turn of foot. Fair Grounds should answer any questions about stamina.
3—Honor Marie (Whit Beckman, Honor Code – Dame Marie, by Smart Strike)
Like Sierra Leone, an impressive victory in the Risen Star would give him a big shot at being No. 1 next week, as this is by far the strongest and deepest field of the year. Beckman has him sharp for the race, and if he can turn in that explosive move we saw in his maiden and Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes victories it is going to take a huge effort to beat him. For those who are not familiar with Beckman, he came up under Todd Pletcher and Chad Brown and worked with such top-class horses as Uncle Mo, Quality Road, Stay Thirsty, Super Saver, Princess of Sylmar, and his favorite Eskedereya for Pletcher, and Good Magic, Bricks and Mortar, Rushing Fall, Goodnight Olive, Sister Charlie, and his favorite Cloud Computing for Brown. So he surely knows a good horse when he sees one and knows the pressure of the Triple Crown working with a Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner and a Kentucky Derby and Belmont runner-up, Remember, Honor Marie is a May 4th foal and is bigger and stronger than he was last year, so who knows how much he has improved over the winter. Like with Sierra Leone, he doesn’t have to win to move forward on the Derby trail, just show us that closing kick we saw last year, especially if a classy speed horse like Track Phantom gets loose on an uncontested lead.
4—Locked (Todd Pletcher, Gun Runner – Luna Rosa, by Malibu Moon)
I still think very highly of this colt and consider him a classic horse with a world of ability. I surely have no concerns with him going the Fountain of Youth – Florida Derby route if that was the original plan, or even the Rebel – Arkansas Derby or Blue Grass route. The only concern right now is that Pletcher has had him go toe-to-toe with Fierceness in a work and had him razor sharp for the Sam F. Davis Stakes with a series of five-furlong works. Now he needs to have him sharp again in four weeks, or three if he goes to the Rebel, where he could run into some Baffert hotshot looking to disrupt the Derby trail. But he’s not to going to rush him back in the morning coming off an illness. So that is enough to throw off a schedule. It could very well all work out and he will remain a top five contender and go into the Kentucky Derby as one of the favorites. But until we see how he adapts to the dramatic change in his schedule we have to keep making room near the top for horses who prove worthy now. If you liked him before, but felt his odds were too short to bet in the Future Wager, the next one is when you want to bet on him if you want to think positive, as he should be higher odds due to the setback. Bottom line is that he has natural speed, class, and a good turn of foot and closing kick, all thanks to a strong combination of stamina on top and a number of world-class European and U.S. milers on the bottom. It’s all about how he bounces back and catches up to his original schedule.
5—Timberlake (Brad Cox, Into Mischief – Pin Up, by Lookin At Lucky)
It didn’t take him long to get razor sharp with a five-furlong work in a bullet :59 2/5, fastest of 45 works at the distance, as he begins to get serious for his 3-year-old debut in the Rebel Stake, where he could very well face potential point snatcher Muth. Like Fierceness he has looked sensational in some races and just ordinary in others. Oddly enough, in his visually dull Breeders’ Cup Juvenile fourth-place finish he paired his career-high 93 Beyer figure and his career-high 2 Thor-Graph number, which gives him the fastest Thoro-Graph pairing of any 3-year-old on the Derby trail. I loved his last work and am still enamored with the bottom part of his pedigree, which has a number of European class and stamina influences. But most of all I still remember how powerful and flawless he looked coming down the stretch in the Champagne, even if it was in the slop, and how quickly he opened a five-length lead on the turn in his maiden romp. With his stablemate Catching Freedom having won the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Cox could have sent him back for the Rebel Stakes, but that race seems like the right spot in which to bring Timberlake back, and Cox wants to stretch Catching Freedom out to 1 1/8 miles.
6—Dornoch (Danny Gargan, Good Magic – Puca, by Big Brown)
He continues to move forward in his training as he prepares for his long-awaited 3-year-old debut in the Fountain of Youth Stakes. What I find remarkable about this colt’s family is that only three horses in the last 108 years, and only four total, have won the Kentucky Derby with only three lifetime starts, and of the three, one is Dornoch’s full-brother Mage and the other is Dornoch’s broodmare sire Big Brown. The other is Triple Crown winner Justify, and the runner-up to Justify in the Derby was Dornoch’s sire Good Magic, who was the first maiden to win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and in only his third career start. So this has to be the most successful inexperienced family in history, with Dornoch’s sire, brother, and grandsire all in the record books for their success with so few starts. And here we have Dornoch breaking away from family tradition with four starts already, and three of them at one mile, 1 1/16 miles, and 1 1/8 miles, and on fast, sloppy, and muddy tracks. So he is a seasoned veteran compared to his relatives. Now we just have to see if his mind has caught up with his experience and success because of the greenness he’s shown in some of his races. If we see a horse in the Fountain of Youth who changes leads on cue, and can keep a straight course with no ducking in and bouncing off the rail we could have a potential Derby favorite who has shown he can blow you away and leave you up the track or he can duke it out with you to the wire. And he showed in the Remsen that you can never count him out even when he looks hopelessly beaten.
7—Hall of Fame (Steve Asmussen, Gun Runner – Flag Day, by Giant’s Causeway)
As mentioned already, Saturday’s Risen Star Stakes is by far the toughest race of the year. Yet Steve Asmussen, who has one of the leading contenders and a back-to-back stakes winner in Track Phantom, has decided to run a maiden winner whose running style could at some point compromise Track Phantom and possibly set it up for any one of the number of top-class closers in the field. The reason is simple. That maiden winner, ambitiously named Hall of Fame, is owned by Coolmore, is inbred 2 x 3 to their first big international star Giant’s Causeway, and cost $1.4 million as a yearling, and it was Asmussen who had told the Coolmore team when they asked him who he liked at the Saratoga yearling sale that this colt was his pick of the sale. David Scanlon, who broke him, said he was a fantastic mover and always did everything so easily. When Asmussen went to visit him in Ocala he called Coolmore racing manager Robyn Murray as soon as he got back in his car and said the colt had developed into everything he had hoped and dreamed he would be since the sale. He took his time with him and let him develop, and after that monster maiden score the whole team is looking forward to seeing how he handles this caliber of competition going 1 1/8 miles. What is amazing this year is that a victory on Saturday, coming off Lasix, could very well make him the Kentucky Derby favorite.
8—Mystik Dan (Kenny McPeek, Goldencents – Ma’am by Colonel John)
If his Southwest romp was on a fast track he surely would be way up there on everyone’s rankings. I believe his performance was too electrifying and his closing fractions too fast to attribute it to a sloppy track. Some may point out a rail bias that day helped a great deal, but Thoro-Graph, which relies heavily on ground loss to boost a rating and a ground saving trip to detract from it, still gave him a monster figure of “1/4,” or to make it easier a zero-plus. No one this year has come close to that. Other skeptics can point out that Goldencents was a miler who does not sire classic horses, But milers do sire Derby winners, and Mystik Dan’s broodmare sire is a Travers winner and his two maternal great-grandsires, Tiznow and Siphon, have combined to win two Breeders’ Cup Classics, two Santa Anita Handicaps, a Hollywood Gold Cup, and a Super Derby – all Grade 1 mile and a quarter races. In addition, his tail-female family traces to Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner Pleasant Colony and Belmont Stakes winner Conquistador Cielo. Sure we want to see how he does on a fast track, but for now it’s hard to find any flaws in him.
9—Catching Freedom (Brad Cox, Constitution, Catch My Drift, by Pioneerof the Nile)
The more I think about it the more I can see him being the horse to beat in the Risen Star. When you break the race down, Sierra Leone and Honor Marie, with their running style, could need this race and are mainly looking for a big first step toward the Louisiana Derby or Blue Grass Stakes and Kentucky Derby. Track Phantom has been a confirmed frontrunner, but his stablemate Hall of Fame has faster numbers, but lacks experience and has never been tested for class. Catching Freedom, however, has the perfect running style, sitting in midpack and should get first run at the leaders. Yes, his speed figures have been nothing to rave about, but two horses he handled easily in the supposedly slow Smarty Jones Stakes, Mystik Dan and Just Steel, came out of that race to run 1,2 in the Southwest Stakes, with Mystik Dan running a jaw-dropping race and getting sensational speed figures. And it must be noted that Catching Freedom has yet to have a clean trip, with troubled starts, being bottled up in traffic down on the rail, and having several nightmare stretch runs, including the Smarty Jones, which he won in spite of that and drawing off at the wire. Part of that was due to greenness, but if he has matured and gets a clean trip with a clear outside run he could be very tough to beat on Saturday and wind up a huge overlay. As for him being a major Derby contender, I am still ranking several horses ahead of him until I see what he can do against this field. But if he runs as well as I think he will then the sky’s the limit.
10—Track Phantom (Steve Asmussen, Quality Road – Miss Sunset, by Into Mischief)
I don’t want it to sound like Track Phantom, despite his two stakes victories, is believed to be inferior to Hall of Fame. But when you have two strong Kentucky Derby horses who both like Fair Grounds you want to find out where both fit on the Derby trail and who will be your big horse in the Louisiana Derby. Asmussen has never been afraid of competition and you can only find out what you have by facing the best. He just happens to have two of the best, and this is where they belong. I have said all along that Track Phantom, unlike Hall of Fame who jumped from a 12 ½ Thoro-Graph number to a 5, needs to make a significant move forward after running a 7, a 5, and then a 6 in his last three races and a career-high 90 Beyer in the LeComte. One thing in his favor is that he likes to run on the lead and doesn’t mind fighting it out early, and most of main foes are confirmed closers, with the exception of Hall of Fame, who could be tracking him closely. If they can avoid eyeballing each other too early they could slow the pace down and make it more difficult for the big closers, who will be making their first start of the year. With Track Phantom breaking from post 11 he is going to have to bust out of there and get to the lead, where he has proven to be tough to catch. We have knocked the spectacular maiden winner Nash for his two subsequent defeats to Track Phantom at odds of 1-2 and even-money. But who knows, maybe Track Phantom is simply a better horse than his speed figures might indicate.
11—Liberal Arts (Robbie Medina, Arrogate, Ismeme, by Tribal Rule)
With so many top horses running in the Risen Star, look for him to move up again next week. But because of Oaklawn Park having to move the Southwest Stakes up a week due to the weather he now most likely will pass the Rebel Stakes and go straight for the Arkansas Derby, which is a long way off. That means his rankings likely will be fluctuating quite a bit. I can’t recall a horse making such a steady improvement in his speed figures. If he was to continue that improvement with two more starts it would have him peaking on Derby Day with a winnable number. He still could if he takes bigger jumps forward in the Arkansas Derby and then the Kentucky Derby, something his connections are expecting him to do considering the way he closed through very fast final fractions in the Southwest and how strong he galloped out. He likely would have been second had he stayed on the speed-biased rail. And because his training was sporadic due to the bad weather, he will be much sharper and fitter going into the Arkansas Derby. To give you an idea how consistent his improvement has been since he debuted, his Thoro-Graph numbers have gone from a 20 to 13 to 11 ¼ to 9 ¾ to 6 ½ to 4 ¾ and his Beyers have followed a similar pattern. Now he has to pick that up a bit in the Arkansas Derby to put him in position to fire big on the first Saturday in May. Has any horse made a more monumental leap than his sire did in the Travers, going from a Thoro-Graph number of 4 to a negative 4 ¾?
12—Hades (Joe Orseno, Awesome Slew – The Shady Lady, by Quality Road)
I honestly have no idea how good his race was in the Holy Bull. Did he win it or did Fierceness lose it. As I mentioned earlier, those absurd fractions were so slow, along with the perplexing slow closing fractions, it makes this race impossible to compute in your brain. I can see throwing out Fierceness’s race because it was such a dramatic plunge from his Breeders’ Cup Juvenile performance, But we don’t quite know who Hades is yet and you cannot ignore the fact that he is unbeaten and looked the champ in the eye and put him away, regardless of what version of the champ that was. His Thoro-Graph pattern of 13 ro 7 ¼ to 6 is encouraging, but needs to keep improving, Also, with Hades being a gelding it’s always good to know why he was gelded. When his breeder, Ocala Stud, sold him as a 2-year-old he was still a colt and according to Ocala Stud’s David O’Farrell, he was a “big, straightforward colt who never had a bad day growing up.” They knew he could run when he breezed for the sale in :21 1/5, :32 2/5, out in :46 flat. Orseno loved him at the sale, but when he started training him he was surprised to see how studdish he was. When they turned him out in Ocala and there was no improvement he decided if he was to be the kind of racehorse he thought he’d be it was best if they gelded him. And look what he has now.
13—Real Men Violin (Kenny McPeek, Mendelssohn – Meg Fitz, by Tapit)
Yes, the list of Risen Star starters continues, and he, like Sierra Leone and Honor Marie, does not have to win this race, not having run since his good second-place finish to Honor Marie in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. Everyone from that race needs to pick up his speed ratings, especially him with his 7 Thoro-Graph number. But that was an improvement from the 9 and 14 in his previous two starts, so the pattern at least is a good one. He has never been out of the money in six starts, so you have to admire and respect his consistency, especially competing on fast, sloppy, and muddy tracks and on grass. McPeek is hot right now, with his colts and fillies, and nothing this horse does can ever surprise me because he has seen so much and always runs his race. He’s been sharp in his works ad must be taken seriously.
14—Conquest Warrior (Shug McGaughey, City of Light – Tea Time, by Pulpit)
His stablemate Change of Command didn’t fare very well in the Sam F. Davis Stakes and dropped right out of the race as the favorite. But the hopes are still very high for this colt even though his last race seems ages ago. McGaughey is still looking at a 1 1/8-mile allowance race in the book for February 29, but the chances of that race filling appear to be pretty slim. If it goes it would set him up nicely for the Florida Derby, which would be his only shot at getting enough points for the Kentucky Derby. If it doesn’t fill he will run in the Fountain of Youth Stakes two days later. He did work five furlongs in 1:01 4/5 in company on Sunday, which is a pretty sharp work for Payson Park. Anyone who knows McGaughey is well aware he will not push a horse to make the Derby. This is a big massive colt who stands 17 hands high and weighs over 1,300 pounds, so you have to let him progress at his own rate. But he has already shown he has several gears and can overcome all kinds of problems in a race. If the Derby doesn’t work out you surely will hear from him later on.
15—Moonlight (Todd Pletcher, Audible – Sundown, by Tapit)
It would seem counter productive to rank so many horses in the top 15 who are running in the same race this weekend, but this year’s Derby trail is unlike any we have seen, with the No. 1 spot open for whoever wants to grab it. And any one of four horses can grab it with a victory, and there are a couple of others who can catapult into the top five. And this is one of them. I am not even basing this on his two stakes appearances, which were run on an off track. His performances were OK, but I’m not sure he was at his best over the surface. Yet he still ran well enough to finish second to Liberal Arts in the Street Sense Stakes and finished a non-threatening fourth in the Remsen against an outstanding field. His career debut was on the grass and he ran a big race, so you would think he’d handle the mud just fine. The reason I am ranking him is because of his one race on a fast track, even though it was an off-the-turf maiden race. Pletcher had already scratched him from an off-the-turf race and seemed to have little choice but to run him this time. As it turned out, everything I saw from this horse I loved. With blinkers added following a tough defeat in his debut, Moonlight moved so well over the dirt, stalking the leader, and his mechanics were flawless. What I loved the most was how perfectly he carries his legs under him and how he never even flinched when hit several times and did not deviate an inch off his path. He drew off with every stride and was being geared down late. But he still came home his final quarter in :24 3/5 and returned bouncing and prancing like a fresh horse. I don’t know if he’s ready for this task, but I feel there is something there that is still untapped. The alternative is to run in a 1 1/16-mile allowance race the same day, for which he was also entered.
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR
Another horse coming off Lasix in the Risen Star is the Bill Mott-trained RESILIENCE, who broke his maiden by 4 ¼ lengths last time out. He has already finished ahead of Track Phantom and is on the improve, but this is a tough spot and he will have to break from the 10 post. Todd Pletcher also is moving his lightly raced CARDINALE way up in class after getting beat a neck by Change of Command in a hard-fought allowance race. He also comes off Lasix, gets Flavien Prat, and drew post 9, so look for him to try to get the jump on Track Phantom from post 11 and perhaps attempt to set it up for Moonlight.
It’s too early to form any conclusions about the Sam F. Davis Stakes and the victorious NO MORE TIME. In a race that looked to have a number of frontrunners he took the track as the lukewarm 3-1 favorite and proceeded to put the 4-1 second choice CHANGE OF COMMAND and several other challengers away and opening a clear lead in the stretch, then held off the late charge of AGATE ROAD to win by 1 ¼ lengths. The 5 ¼-length gap to third in an 11-horse field suggests this was a solid performance, and that this colt is legitimate enough to be taken seriously in the Tampa Bay Derby. Not bad for an Iowa-bred $40,000 yearling purchase. Change of Command, who stopped to a walk, will be brought home for evaluation before any plans are made.
Normally, horses who run in the six-furlong Jimmy Winkfield Stakes, a race that has morphed from the old Swift Stakes, is considered purely a sprinter and ignored on the Derby trail. This year I have a dilemma with the winner BERGEN, who worked a blistering half in :47 2/5 over the Belmont training track. Based on what I have seen in his races, it would be wise not to label him a sprinter and realize that another impressive performance in the one-mile Gotham on March 2 could very well put him in the Wood Memorial. His connections are a bit concerned that he is built like a sprinter, more compact and muscular. But for now they are going to treat him like a Derby horse until he shows them otherwise. His sire Liam’s Map, was a brilliant mile to mile and an eighth horse and his female family is loaded with stamina, with his only inbreeding 3 x 4 to Unbridled, his third dam being by Preakness winner and Belmont third-place finisher Pine Bluff, and his fourth dam being by Alydar, out of a Hoist the Flag mare.
He actually has already run going a flat mile at Churchill Downs off an impressive six-furlong maiden score, rallying strongly from 10th to finish second, while finishing ahead of Mystik Dan. And he ran like a natural distance horse, who finished strongly, even having to alter course when the winner came out into his path. He looks to be a very professional horse with no flaws, who had no trouble cutting back to six furlongs in the Winkfield and rally once again to win going away and running through the wire as if he were just getting going. Whether going six furlongs or one mile he runs the same race and closes relentlessly. We’ll wait until the Gotham before deciding whether to rank him in the top 15. Of course you want to see a horse with a stayer’s build, but another big effort going a mile and you have to at least start to give him the benefit of the doubt.
It was close which Chad Brown horse, DOMESTIC PRODUCT or TUSCAN GOLD, to put at No. 15, so I decided to wait a week and see what develops at Fair Grounds. The former has the stakes experience, and I liked the way he was striding out at the end of the Holy Bull Stakes, even though if all those bizarre fractions are correct he probably should have caught Hades. But everyone came home slow when they shouldn’t have and so I can only go by the visual aspect of the race. I still would like to know if those fractional times were looked into and are correct, because it never at any point looked like they were going that slow. So for now let’s ignore his absurd 69 Beyer figure and even his 7 Thoro-Graph number and consider him a horse who is heading in the right direction and should bounce back with a good effort next time, not only visually but time-wise. Tuscan Gold looks to be the more brilliant of two and may have a higher ceiling and more room for improvement, but he still has to be tested for class. Both, however, look like very nice colts.
Speaking of Tuscan, Todd Pletcher has a promising colt in TUSCAN SKY, who worked a sharp half in :48 4/5 at Palm Beach Downs for a 1 1/16-mile allowance race at Fair Grounds Saturday.
For those who follow the Thoro-Graph numbers, UNCLE HEAVY ran a strong 4 ½ in the Withers after having run a 5 twice, so he looks to be a far better horse than many people might think. It is also interesting to note that allowance winner REAL MACHO, who looked good running down the heavily favored BORN NOBLE in an allowance race, went from Thoro-Graph numbers of 17, 12 ¼, ad 13 to a 5 ¾, so he made enormous strides and could be taking after his sire Mucho Macho Man. If he doesn’t bounce off this race and pairs up or takes another move forward, we could have a horse to watch.
Phil D’Amato, having found a rare Baffert-free race, will try to take advantage of it by running STRONGOLD in Sunday’s Sunland Derby and sharpening him up with a five-furlong work in 1:00 3/5. His main competition could come from the Steve Asmussen shipper INFORMED PATRIOT, third in the Smarty Jones Stakes, as well as the Riley Allison Derby winner LUCKY JEREMY, winner of two straight.
Racing historian, author, and award-winning retired journalist for the Daily Racing Form and The Blood-Horse, Steve Haskin was inducted into the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame’s Media Roll of Honor in 2016. Known for his racing knowledge and insightful prose, he has been an exclusive contributor to Secretariat.com since 2020.
The Saudi World Cup should be an interesting and exciting race.
Hard for me to narrow down my favorites list:
Derma Sotagake, Ushba Tesero, Senor Buscador and Saudi Crown (SC is one gorgeous horse).
Pretty elite group of horses and any one of them could win in my opinion.
No Europeans this year. Luxembourg will racing on turf. I think he was double entered.
Safe races for all!
I’m excited to see Derma run again. I agree with you about Saudi Crown.
The Saudi Cup field looks to produce a very hot pace that would benefit Senor Buscador, Derma Sotogake and White Abarrio… Ushba Tesoro really likes that track as well…
I am particularly interested in Forever Young in the Saudi Derby… my impression is that he is better than Derma Sotogake was by this time last year.
The Rebel came up very weak IMO. Timberlake even off of the layoff will be 4-5. He isn’t that good if he can’t beat this field. The SW in my opinion with Liberal Arts and Mystic Dan was a stronger race .
Nothing spectacular about Timberlake. Imo, he might be short with only 5 published works since his last in the BCJ on 11/03/23
Did not beat much in the G1 Champagne, was close to the leaders tuning for home in the BCJ then faded to 4th. Not worth the short odds.
Since the Saudi Cup was referenced below, I’m wondering–does anyone know its post time, let’s say for Eastern Standard Time, since that’s the time zone usually given? I couldn’t find anything online yesterday.
Saudi Derby Post time Local: 5:00 pm,====> 9:00 am Eastern Time
Saudi Cup Post Time Local: 8:40 pm, ====> 12:40 pm Eastern Time
Riyadh time is 8 hours ahead of the Eastern Time.
That’s great! Thank you so much, Nelson!
My pleasure Arlingtonfan…
I’ve always been reluctant to use the term “lock”, but Timberlake, running in the Rebel Stakes, could fit the description.
One area of concern is the rider change. In five previous starts, Florent Geroux has been aboard Timberlake, but not this time. Geroux scheduled to ride at the Fair Grounds on Saturday. Unless there’s a last-minute change, Christian Torres will be riding Timberlake in the Rebel Stakes.
It’s possible that Brad Cox was not too happy with Geroux’s ride aboard Awesome Road, in the Southwest Stakes, hence the rider switch to Torres in the Rebel. Very interesting, to say the least.
Thoughts, anyone?
My guess is that Florent Geroux will be in Saudi Arabia this weekend… Piloting Saudi Crown perhaps?
I don’t see any indications of Cox being discontent with Geroux about Awesome Road whose 4th place in the Southwest was expected as a 11 to 1 choice.
Cox continues giving Geroux great mounts after the Southwest like Saudi Crown, Alpine Princess and he is still the ‘go to’ jockey when riding prospects like Godolphin’s Pure Poetry.
Anyway, disatisfying is not having the names of the Jockeys in the entries of the Saudi Cup broadcasted today..
Confirmed Bill… Florent Geroux will be riding Saudi Crown in the Saudi Cup this Saturday!
Many thanks for bringing clarification as to where Geroux will be riding on Saturday. Money talks and BS walks.
The Saudi Cup provides big payouts to the top finishers. It was probably an easy decision for Geroux to ride Saudi Crown.
Thanks again, Nelson.
My pleasure Bill…
BTW Cox has given 6 mounts to Cristian Torres this Saturday at Oaklawn…
Obviously, Torres must be doing pretty well to receive that kind of trust and confidence from a top trainer…
Torres has done a good job with Liberal Arts in my view…
You’re the Man, Nelson.
Leading rider at Oaklawn
Track Phantom didn’t see Sierra Leone until too late but once he did he resurged and didn’t lose ground to Sierra Leone on the gallop out. Mile and a quarter may be to much with the normal hot pace in the Derby but maybe he can hang on for a piece.
Sierra Leone is no doubt going to be the #1 ranked derby horse. I thought he should have won in the Remsen. Looked like he was waiting for a horse to gun down. The stretch run on the turn was just awesome to watch with his ears pinned down n stride out passing each horse with ease.
Risen Star showed his the real deal in dry or wet conditions.
Got a stellar pedigree also.
I suspect that 95% of the regular contributors to this blog, including myself, would agree that Sierra Leone should be ranked at #1.
However, Steve has been known to spring a few surprises, especially at this time of the year. Stay tuned.
Nash’s third quarter :22.52 on Saturday very fast…..
Matthew W
Needless to say, Nash’s third quarter time was not good enough to hold off Tuscan Sky, drawing off by 2 open lengths.
When comparing Equibase Speed Figures, Tuscan Sky received a 99, Nash received a 96.
Does this mean that Tuscan Sky is a better prospect than Nash moving forward on the Derby trail? Not necessarily, but it certainly appears that way. When comparing pedigrees, Tuscan Sky’s sire line leads directly to Mr. Prospector, whereas Nash’s sire line leads directly to Northern Dancer. The Mr. Prospector line as produced more Derby winners than the ND sire line, statistics will back that up.
From my perspective, Tuscan Sky has more upside, moving forward on the Derby trail, than Nash, IMO.
Good luck, Matthew W.
The best finishes in the last 3 KDs for Cox and Pletcher are listed below:
2023 – KENTUCKY DERBY
Angel Of Empire – 3rd Cox
Hit Show – 5th Cox
Tapit Trice – 7th Pletcher
2022 – KEBTUCKY DERBY
Mo Donegal 5th -Pletcher
Tawny Port – 7th Cox
2021 KENUCKY DERBY
Mandaloun – 2ed _ Cox
Essential Quality 4th _ Cox
Known Agenda 9th- Pletcher.
Tuscan Sky having more upside, moving forward than Nash isn’t suppotrd by the above.
Todd Pletcher has had two Kentucky Derby winners, Always Dreaming in 2017, and Super Saver in 2010. Tuscan Sky “could” be his third winner. Dismiss Tuscan Sky at your own peril.
Incidentally, I noticed the horse you were backing in the Risen Star, Bee Season, finished a distant, last.
Just to let everyone know, Leonard gets back from vacation tonight, so the Rankings will not be posted until tonight or early tomorrow morning.
Thanks for the info. I am anxiously awaiting The Fountain of Youth. Hopefully, it will be an awesome race and test this year.
Thanks for letting us know, Steve. I’m anxiously awaiting where Tuscan Sky lands in your Derby Rankings – Week 5.
Sierra Leone, at #1, right? 🙂
No fair peaking
LOL.
Should a Japanese horse win the UAE Derby and a horse accept from the Japan Road, there could again be two Japanese in the Kentucky Derby. Forever Young currently 22-1
@CircaSports
Ramjet opened today at 125-1 currently 85-1
@CircaSports
Fukuryu winner will be offered the invite first, but with 30 points, Ramjet will be second on that list. A Fukuryu winner has yet to accept an invite so far.
I can see a foreign based horse winning this year. Risen star didn’t prove much of annything in the bog and got a weak BSF. West coast won’t have any horses.
100 percent Jeff…Also waiting for sleepers to emerge like DETERMINISTIC and PANDAGATE maybe CAPITAL IDEA
I wouldn’t say Nash is a better Derby prospect than the horse whobeat him two lengths in his first two turn race….I said his 3rd quarter was fast, is all ….
Whoops, meant as a reply to Bill …
Risen Star had plenty. This is always your deal unless certain horses are racing.
Pletcher and Brown have proven they don’t know how to prepare a horse for the KD. Stats don’t lie. I expect another horse to win.
Don’t like them at all. However, Todd won two Derb, Brown has only small number horses on Derby trail from time to time.Let’s don’t let
facts get in the way.
Forgot to mention that The Wine Steward had his first timed workout on Saturday. He went 3f in 36.06 (1/25). It seems unlikely that he will be ready to make much of an impact on the Derby trail, but you never know…
Stronghold, by Ghostzapper , out of a Jimmy Creed mare, won the G3 Sunland Park Derby, going 1 1/16 miles, in 1:42.64, drawing off by 2 1/2 lengths. Although he was the favorite, it’s interesting to note that he closed at 99-1 in Derby Futures Pool 4. When the gates opened, it was 6:23 pm, eastern time, which means Pool 4 had already closed. For those that placed wagers down on Stronghold, at 99-1, best of luck with this Ghostzapper colt moving forward.
I suspect Philip D’Amato will run him right back in the Sunland Derby, on March 24th, (50 Derby points).
Will Stronghold land somewhere in Steve’s top 15? Stay tuned.
Bill, I did get a little wager down on Stronghold in Pool 4 as well as Pool 3 @200-1. So the Sunland Park Derby was fun to watch! Whether he can take the next step, who knows. You suggest that he might run next in the Sunland Derby on March 24th, but I don’t see that race listed as a points race for the Derby trail, at least from what I see on KD.com. Did you mean another race? Thanks!
You’re right Bruce, my bad. It will be interesting to see where D’Amato points him for his next outing. Possibly, the Arkansas Derby.
Good luck with your wager on Stronghold.
It is amazing how Ghostzapper at his 24 year old (21 when Stronghold was foaled) is still throwing Stakes winners.
Ghostzapper and Hard Spun are the Laffit Pincays of the breeding world…
Farwell to Echo Zulu, the finest of race filies. She’ll be remembered by many.
Damn!
Sierra Leone will be the new number one as Steve hinted last week.
My guess is that Hall of Fame, Real Men Violin and Moonlight will be removed from the top 15.
Stronghold should enter the ranking since Steve had him in the very first top 15 of the year. Perhaps Uncle Heavy and Tuscan Sky take the other two vacant spots.
Catching Freedom should be above Honor Marie now… his Risen Star performance is better than it looks on paper.
I was not surprised to see Sierra Leone close as the favorite, in KD Futures Pool 4, at 6-1. Dornoch closed at 9-1, and Fierceness at 16-1. Tuscan Sky opened at 80-1, but dropped all the way down to 30-1, coming off that AOC win, at the Fair Grounds, this past Saturday.
I agree Nelson, Sierra Leone will at the top of Steve’s KD Rankings – Week 5.
I was hoping Honor Marie would run big in the Risen Star☹️
So was I, Sherri. I keyed Honor Marie w/Sierra Leone and Catching Freedom in an exacta box.
As Matthew W. said earlier, Honor Marie skipped a workout due to a problem on the track, which was not rescheduled, so he was not as sharp as he should have been. Also, I was surprised that jockey Rafael Berejano did not get a couple of other mounts on the card to get a feel of how the muddy track was playing. He got a poor start and lagged behind until making a belated move in the stretch.
Let’s give him another shot. I’m sure he’ll give a better account of himself next time out.
I’m not giving up on him either. I will toss the Risen Star race out. Honor Marie needed the race either way. Looking forward to his training and next race.
While watching “bizarre deaths” from the series The UnBelievable With Dan Aykroyd I learned about the case of Frank Hayes the jockey who won a race while being dead.
Aparently, Hayes lost 12 pounds of his weight in 24 hours to be able to ride Sweet Kiss. He won a Belmont Park’s steeplechase on 20-1 longshot Sweet Kiss, after suffering a fatal heart attack during the race on June 4, 1923.
The narrator said that Frank Hayes “gave his life to be a champion jockey” which was more for dramatic effects than reality. It is said that Sweet Kiss never raced again and that she earned the nickname “Sweet Kiss of Death.”
Thank God the professional Jockeys have the expert advise of nutritionists … it is the most dangerous occupation that does not need to add starvation as another risk factor…
Sad news … Champion Echo Zulu was euthanized Yesterday at the Chino Valley Equine Hospital in Southern California. She was recovering after surgery to repair fractured sesamoids but injured herself while trying to get up … similar to what happened to Ruffian after surgery…
My condolences to her connections…
Heartbreaking news. Echo Zulu will be remembered as a true champion and courageous fighter in recovery.
Sad news too the loss of Veery Eleegant as the result of foaling complications. Sadly the foal died with her.
Two great mares who I will remember always.
Loss of the mares breaks my heart just as much as the stallions and geldings.
Condolences to all the connections and caregivers of both. They are all surely devastated
Run free with Heavenly Herd beautiful girls.
So sorry to hear of Veery Eleegant , her foal, and Echo Zulu. How tragic. What a loss. Sending my condolences who loved and cared for them.
This is terribly sad. Thank you for letting us know.
So sorry to hear Echo Zulu didn’t make it. At least she gave pleasure and joy to all her people for a few more months. May she rest in peace.
The loss of Echo Zulu is definitely a loss for the breed as she showed “brilliance” as a race horse. It would have been nice if she could have survived her tragic injury and went on to produce a foal just like her. Condolences to her connections and those of the other mare, Veery Eleegant.
My sympathy to all who loved her. She gave us a lot of fond memories.
DOMESTIC PRODUCT
Maiden Breaker – 9F MSW 1st by 4 1/2L in 1:50.97 (Track – fast)
Remsen G3; 9F – 7th by 16 1/4L in 1:50.30 (Track – Muddy/Sealed)
Approximate final time for Remsen – 1:53 plus.
Could the muddy/sealed surface and the strangling of the colt by its ride be responsible for the poor performance? The colt ran 2 seconds plus slower than his previous effort over the distance.
Was he outclassed in the Remsen?
Should his performance be dismissed as not reflective of his true ability?
SIERRA LEONE
Remsen G3; 9F – 2nd by NS in 1:50.30 (Track – Muddy/Sealed)
Risen Star G2 9F – 1st by 1/2L in 1:52.13 (Track – Sloppy/Sealed)
The colt ran almost 2 seconds plus slower than his previous effort over the distance.
Chad Brown has two colts with the two of the best times for 9F so far. Yet one cannot make the top 10?
How so?
As far as the Tuscan Sky race ( along with the race last week of Maymun/Imagination race ) I see them as glorified “workouts” but in each case all horses involved with get a lot out of it. If I was the owner and trainer of Nash I would forget about any Kentucky Derby aspirations and find an easy spot for him and build his confidence and keep in the 7 to 8 furlong range for races.
Sierra Leone looks like the real deal and looked like a Derby Horse coming down the stretch. I suspect Steve will move him to No. 1 in his ranking this week. He should make Dornoch to No.2 followed by Mystik Dan 3rd, then Fierceness for 4th after that its a toss up. On Pletcher plan for Fierceness if it is true his next race is the Florida Derby then he must be pretty confident he has found an answer for his poor showing in the Holy Bull. In my book until he can show me he can run behind horses I am on the fence with him.
Surprised Baffert did not send one of his 3 year olds to the Rebel Stakes ?!?!? Wonder if the California rain played any part?
DTS
It is my hope you are not one of the supporters of this space that takes offense to replies to your posts.
Baffert had Wynstock, the Loa Al Futurity winner in the Soutwest, and he faded to last. He is probably not encouraged by that colt’s performance.
NASH –
Why should Nash be taken off the KY Trail?
Where did he record his most impressive performance.
How many on the KD trail has been involved in two 8 1/2F completed in in 1::43?
Sierra Leone and Nash share dam sire i.e., Malibu Moon a son of A P Indy.
Tuscan Sky’s dam sire Sky Mesa is grandson of A P Indy
Fiercenes’ dam sire Stay Thirsty is grandson of A P Indy
Nysos’ dam sire Bernardini is son of A P Indy
Knightsbridge’s dam sire Bernardini is son of A P Indy
‘
The Godolphin colt has a slightly high knee action suggesting he might be better on turf or a dirt surface that turf types find favorable. That’s why his best performance was at the turf type friendly CD.
Rich Strike was defeated by 15L by Epicenter at Fair Grounds. He turned the table on Epicenter at CD in the KD. Where did RS record his best performance ? CD by 17 1/2L.
Counterpoint no offense at all. Your comment on Wynstock not sure what you meant on that other than the horse might have liked the off track. I don’t feel he is Baffert’s best 3 year old , nice horse just not his best.
Your comment on Nash and Sierra Leone brought back memories of two brothers I knew in high school and both were on the track team. The older brother was tall and lanky and the younger brother was shorter and medium build. The older brother was a cross country star while the younger brother was running the 220, 440, and 440 relay team. The younger brother tried to follow his older brother doing cross country but found out he just wasn’t cut out to be a distant runner but he could run very fast for short distances. Same mom and dad just went a different route to make the track team. Sierra Leone runs his best coming from way off the pace AND I think it would a mistake if they try and change his running style. Nash on the other hand seems to have great early speed likes being on the front end but i feel he has limitations on how far he can carry that speed. Now if you were to tell me the trainer is going to change his running style to a closer from a frontrunner (and who knows he may try and do that or he has and found out he doesn’t and the horse sulks when he is being restrained ) yes he may turn into another Rich Strike. And speaking of Rich Strike he wins the KD by coming out of nowhere but when Reed changed his running style in the Belmont by running closer to pace the horse had nothing left in the stretch. Another example is Jackie’s Warrior who won that big race as a 2 year old and everyone thought this was the next Kentucky Derby winner but in the end Asmussen realized he was not a route horse and turned him into a great sprinter. Or you may be right he might be better suited as a turf horse then a dirt horse. All I feel (an again this is my opinion) I would back off on Nash if you want to keep him as a front runner look for easier races to build his confidence and run shorter races or see if he can change his running style
Speaking of “changing running styles”…..Silky Sullivan was a runaway speed horse, and they went to great lengths trying to get him to settle out of the gate, and he became the one-run DEEP closer of legend …his 42-lengths back win, in the 6 1/2 furlong allowance race was his best, but he also won the Santa Anita Derby from 20 back…..
Sierra Leone means “Lioness Mountains” in Portuguese. It is also the name of a country on the west coast of Africa.
I’m not sure how or why Sierra Leone’s ownership group came up with that name. It would be interesting to find out.
I’m going to go ahead and predict Steve shakes things up tomorrow! Way up! Tuscan Sky jumps up and grabs #1, with that 95 Beyer—it looked better to me, first time two turns and he beat a nice colt for fun….much easier to beat a tiny field, I get that—he has major upside…
I seriously doubt Tuscan Sky “jumps up and grabs #1”, but you’re certainly entitled to your opinion. He’s yet to be tested for class, but soon will be, somewhere down the Derby trail.
Don’t get me wrong, I’ve loved Tuscan Sky from the get-go, so much so that I placed a $40.00 win wager on him in KD Futures Pool 3, at 88-1. In addition, I keyed him on top, with eleven bombers underneath, in a $2.00 exacta p/w wager.
Tuscan Sky could wind up to be the best colt, on the Derby trail, in the Pletcher barn. He checks a lot of boxes, IMO.
Good luck, Matthew W.
I simply hate the KDFW as it’s a non-refundable wager and I have already fallen victim to it with Parchment Party. But I am a gambler.
Liberal Arts is in my top 3 and he is currently 53/1 in the KDFW pool. I had to place a wager. The Unriddled arm of the Mr. Prospector sire line is remains most successful. When a talented one emerges from this extension of the M. P line, I follow.
Angel Of Empire came up short in the 2023 KD and it appears Liberal Arts is a worthy prospect to score another KD win for the Unbridled dynasty.
I just sunk a fiver on Honor Marie, a deep closer who loves that track, was moving well at the end yesterday….I didn’t see any deep closers winning any two turn races, yesterday—got 32-1….
Like HM alot. Not ready to give up on him.
If you notice he didn’t gallop out in front like his last race where he ended up around fifty yards in front —this time he was tired, after the finish, and he did miss his last work—there was a training mishap that caused them to cancel their work as it was beginning—trainer decided not to reschedule the work so they went minus the final work—I, too am not giving up on the colt but he had better show improvement….I think he will ..
Agree with your observation. Great points!
36-1..
As of 2-18, these are my top 15 on the Derby trail, (in preferential order)
1) Sierra Leone
2) Fierceness
3) Dornoch
4) Locked
5) Mystik Dan
6) Tuscan Sky
7) Track Phantom
8) Catching Freedom
9) Timberlake
10) Speak Easy
11) Resilience
12) Conquest Warrior
13) Hades
14) Imperial Gun
15) Stronghold
I’d like to see other regulars on this blog step up and post their top 15, before Steve post’s his Derby Rankings – Week 5.
On a side note, I thought Tuscan Sky’s win in that AOC race, was quite impressive, to say the least.
Todd Pletcher is loaded with Derby prospects.
You mean personal list or guessing Steve’s ranking?
My personal list, I would never try and second guess Steve Haskin. As an example, Liberal Arts didn’t make my top 15, Steve has him ranked at # 11, (on his Week 4 Rankings).
With regards to his upcoming Derby Rankings- Week 5, I’d be shocked if Tuscan Sky didn’t land somewhere in his top 15.
I love to make lists, so I’ll happily step up, Bill. I moved Dornoch up to second, since Sierra Leone’s win flattered him.
1. Sierra Leone
2. Dornoch
3. Track Phantom
4. Catching Freedom
5. Fierceness
6. Mystik Dan
7. Speak Easy
8. Tuscan Sky
9. Locked
10. Honor Marie
11. No More Time
12. Timberlake
13. Hades
14. Just Steel
15. Domestic Product
Our lists are very similar, Ms Blacktype. Great minds think alike. 🙂
My top 15:
1. Sierra Leone
2. Dornoch
3. Timberlake
4. Forever Young
5. Mystik Dan
6. Catching Freedom
7. Track Phantom
8. Locked
9. Liberal Arts
10. Tuscan Sky
11. Speak Easy
12. Honor Marie
13. Hades
14. Snead
15. Fierceness
[1]Forever Young (Jpn), [2]Sierra Leone, [3]Honor Marie, [4]Locked, [5]Tuscan Sky, [6]Dornoch, [7]Catching Freedom, [8]Liberal Arts, [9]Timberlake, [10]Mystik Dan, [11]Scatify, [12]Stronghold, [13]Tuscan Gold, [14]Top Conor, [15]Protective.
Seems like you got the same tip I did about Forever Young … LOL
The exclusion of Liberal Arts is puzzling.
Tuscan Sky, Speak Easy, Resilience, Conquest Warrior, Imperial Gun and Stronghold have either not contested or won a graded stake.
If not for a troubled trip in the Iroquois, Liberal Arts graded stakes record would be (3 starts 2-0-1).
Mystik Dan defeated Liberal Arts y 8L in the SW. Let’s compare both pre-SW form.
Mystik Dan finished 2nd on debut on 10/22/2023.
Liberal Arts won the Street Sense (G3) on 10/29/2023.
In the same one colt finished 2nd on debut and the other won a G3.
PERIOD BETWEN OCTOBER 2023 AND SOUTHWEST:
Mystik Dan made 3 starts finishing 1st, 5th & 5th. As per Equibase he recorded 6 works in addition to his 3 starts.
Liberal Arts’ next start was the SW. As per Equibase there were no works for November & December (60 days) He returned to the work tab in January 2024 and recorded 5 works ahead of the SW.
Which of the 2 would have considered the fittest entering the SW?
Liberal Arts has never finished of the board in 6 stars. He has never contested a Listed Stakes and finished off the board.
Give the above. Are you still of the opinion that Liberal Arts’ exclusion from your top 15 list is warranted?
I agree with you about Liberal Arts Coldfacts. I am glad I bet him at 46-1 in KDFW2 to win and boxed him with the field. IMO Liberal Arts has a good chance of turning the tables on Mystik Dan in the ARK Derby. Hopefully he runs a strong ARK Derby to get the points to get in the Derby. The longer the better for this talented son of Arrogate.
1JoeP
Counter Point has stated that he is not Coldfacts. 🙂
That has to be Coldfacts Bill. I have read some of his previous posts where he uses the word Whilst and has said ‘the Coldfacts speak for themselves’ . You know the old saying Bill, if the shoe fits ….
You may have missed my comment that I posted about three weeks ago, which stated the following: “Welcome back Coldfacts, I see you changed your username to Counter Point”, or words to that effect.
He replied that he was not Coldfacts. I’ll take him at his word. However, the manner in which they present their comments are very similar.
Hi Bill… He is not Coldfacts anymore because he is Counterpoint now…makes sense… doesn’t it…
Now, we have a recent comment posted by Counter Fit adding to the intrigue.
Point/Counter Point was an interesting TV series back in the sixties which focused on controversial topics at that time.
The plot thickens.
BTW Nelson, I noticed you dropped Fierceness all the way down to #15 on your list, which begs the question, is your list in preferential order?
Yes Bill… those are my preferences…
I don’t like they are waiting for the Florida Derby for his next start… my gut feeling tells me Fierceness is not regaining his BC form at least in his next two starts… with him is like tossing a coin at this very moment.
Beside, I see a good number of hopefuls just catching up now and even more in the next 60 days…
“Jane, you ignorant sl*t!”
The field for the $1,250,000 REBEL Stakes:
PP Horse Wgt Jockey Trainer
1 Carbone 119 Castillo Isaac Asmussen Steven M.
2 Northern Flame 122 Leparoux Julien R. McPeek Kenneth G.
3 Common Defense 117 Hernandez, Jr. Brian Joseph McPeek Kenneth G.
4 Tejon Pass 117 Landeros Chris Miller Peter
5 Magic Grant 117 Hernandez Harry Milligan, Jr. Eddie
6 Dimatic 117 Gaffalione Tyler Asmussen Steven M.
7 Timberlake 119 Torres Cristian A. Cox Brad H.
8 Next Level 117 Riquelme Jose Desormeaux J. Keith
9 Lagynos 119 Asmussen Keith J. Asmussen Steven M.
10 Mena 117 Arrieta Francisco Hobby Steve
11 Just Steel 117 Vazquez Ramon A. Lukas D. Wayne
12 Woodcourt 122 Esquivel Emmanuel Contreras Cipriano
13 Time for Truth 117 Bejarano Rafael Moquett Ron
Timberlake, Next Level, Northern Flame and Just Steel are the only hopefuls with Grade 1 experience. Timberlake should be the overwhelming favorite in the 50-point contest…
Spot on Nelson, Timberlake towers over the Rebel Stakes field.
I agree with Bill. Timberlake is the class of the field, which means the race is ripe for an upset. I’ll take Carbone.
If I were to pick an upset candidate, (which I’m not), I would go with Time for Truth.
Looks like Timberlake has had three really strong 5 furlong works in the past three weeks, so he will be ready to roll. Going by speed figures, he looks like he should be strong favorite here. I expect the first really fast early fractions of this year’s Derby Trail, with Carbone breaking from the 1 and Time for Truth (2 6 furlong races with Equibase Speed figures of 95 and 102) breaking from far outside. Both will want/need the lead.
That is a good assessment Greg… it is nice to see that the Rebel will be run on a fast track… Carbone got the speedy Northern Flame to his rigth pushing the tempo for sure.. also Time for Truth and Lagynos will be feeding the expectec hot early fractions. Just Steel got the speed but he will be most likely stalking the leaders…
The Risen Star – Feb 17th, 2024 – Sloppy Sealed Track 9F
Fractional times: 24.32 – 49.67 – 1:14.74 – 1:39.40 – 1:52.13
Split times: 25.35 – 25.07 – 24.66 – 12.73
The Remsen – Dec 2nd, 2023 – Sloppy Sealed Track 9F
Fractional times: 23.09 – 46.97 – 1:11.56 – 1:37.42 – 1:50.30
Split times: 23.88 – 24.59 – 25.86 – 12.88
No matter how you slice it….Track Phantom has distance limitations. Also, Sierra Leon flattered Dornoch with this win.
Steve Art Wilson passed away suddenly, I don’t know if you knew him he was one of the good ones, back in the newspaper days….Art liked to say the greatest two Kentucky Derby horses ran in the same Derby, in 1973—Sham was his favorite horse….
Matthew W, is this the Art Wilson of the Pasadena Star News?
Yes…..he had been receiving treatments for a blood disorder and just passed, his heart gave out—was at Santa Anita a few days ago …
Dang. I remember him being a huge Zenyatta supporter as well. PS-is Professor Gordon Jones of the old Los Angeles Examiner still around?
I know he was living in Vegas, he must be quite old— art Wilson was 71…..I THINK Professor Jones is still around….
John , no biggie but it was the Los Angeles Herald Examiner, and I was an avid reader of his column back then. I found an article from the LA Time back in March 1985 were he and his daughter were busted for bookmaking. Not sure if it stuck or not but he did end up with his daughter in Las Vegas and for a while was doing a handicapping seminar there. If he is still around he would be close to 90 years old.
That’s very sad news Matthew, I used to enjoy reading Art’s articles in the Pasadena Star-News.
Thank you for sharing the info.
The Beyer folks gave Sierra Leone a 91 for the Risen Star. Given the margins, looks like Track Phantom would get a 90 or 91, and Catching Freedom an 87. Looks like they just threw up their hands, given then mud, darkness and slow pace, and assigned all three their previous figures.
Correction: Sierra now has a 90, Track Phantom an 89. Catching Freedom stands pat at 87.
The Hyacinth Stakes to be run in 6 minutes offers 30 qualifying points in the Japan road to the Derby.
Unquenchable (Discreet Cat-Smoldering by Pyro) is the 4/5 favorite. The Godolphin colorbearer already got 3 points from a 3rd in the Catleya Stakes behind Amante Bianco and George Tesoro.
The best Japanese will likely come from the UAE Derby and Unquenchable, being owned by Godolphin, could very well take the Dubai route after this trial…
The 30 points of the Hyacinth goes to Ramjet (Majestic Warrior – Nefertiti by Gold Allure). He was the fourth favorite at 11 to 1 and clocked 1:36.30 for the mile.
Unquenchable was not able to fend off the strong late rush of Ramjet and finished a wearing second by a nose over the 33-1 longshot Habire (Henny Hughes – Tomo Tomo River by Black Tide).
Godolphin does not seem to have a Derby ticket this year unless Nash improves leaps and bounds and Knightsbridge can catch up in training…
Nelson, do you have any news on Foreign Affair? I thought that he was supposed to run in the Hyacinth.
Edit: s/be Forever Young. More coffee, please.
LOL
I have posted the list of Japanese runners in the Saudi festival but it is awaiting moderation…
Anyway, you can see all the japanese horses if go to
2024 Saudi Cup: Complete Guide to the 2024 Saudi Cup Day
Hi Dewey…I believe Forever Young is going to run the Saudi Cup… but I need to confirm if he is already in Riyadh and how he is doing there…
* Saudi Derby… more coffee to me !
Thanks for the feedback, Nelson. The Saudi Cup website is loaded with hundreds of entries (nominations) for the Saudi Derby alone. I spotted Forever Young’s name but we’ll have to wait until final entries are drawn this week to confirm whether he runs or not. In any event, Saudi Cup day should be a fun day of racing.
I really believe that Forever Young is Japan’s best bet to join the Kentucky Derby field. If he’s in the gate, he’ll have my support at the windows.
Thanks for the heads up.
You can see the list of all Japanese runners at Saudi Cup day by browsing the following title:
2024 Saudi Cup: Complete Guide to the 2024 Saudi Cup Day
G3 Saudi Derby
Name Trainer
Forever Young Yoshito Yahagi
Set Up Yuichi Shikato
Satono Phoenix Masato Nishizono
G1 Saudi Cup
Name Age/Sex Trainer
Ushba Tesoro 7YO/Horse Noboru Takagi
Derma Sotogake 4YO/Horse Hidetaka Otonashi
Meisho Hario 7YO/Horse Inao Okada
Lemon Pop 6YO/Horse Hiroyasu Tanaka
Crown Pride 5YO/Horse Koichi Shintani
BTW Sierra Leone and Forever Young are cousins… their dams are both daughters of Darling My Darling…
Fruitful female family indeed…!
Wow! You’re kidding? Now there’s a Derby exacta for you. Sierra Leone and Forever Young, cousins….. that is so cool.
Much obliged for the connection, Nelson.
Per Chad Brown, Sierra Leone’s next start will be the Blue Grass Stakes, at Keeneland, on April 6th.
Today the new #1 & #2 Derby horses won at Fairgrounds —#1 Sierra Leone…#2 Tuscan Sky…..Sierra Leone is in, can do things his way and there’s huge upside! This colt has “the look”. . Tuscan Sky was flawless, and fast …I get why Discopartner likes Track Phantom, he makes his own race, and battles! I thought he was going to win, but was caught by a good horse— I’m still bullish on Honor Marie, he did make up ground, I knew early—when he was around 8 lengths behind —they were going slow—he has to get a good prep on now, and I’m not counting that out ..
Track Phantom is fun to cheer for, shouting his name, which sounds like a comic book hero. He and the winner are the only two I’d take from this race. Those other horses in the top 10 should drop off the list. Track Phantom set a slow pace so he could win it, none of the close up stalkers could pass him, the sloppy track also slowed it down, the water bothers them and they slip on poor footing, and there are layers of loose mud to run through, despite the sealed track. I don’t think Track Phantom especially likes the slop and mud and I’ll look forward to where he races next. He runs a difficult style, it’s difficult to wire a route race, but he has enough quality to keep trying. Sierra Leone was the best of the closers, he seemed to win easily at the end. Closers were winning all day.
Nice win by Sierra Leone.
However after all adjustments (and hoping there was no great change in the track condition) I would say that the Tuscan Sky (R3) was much faster, but may not gain much as it was an Allowance race.
Never do I lose my mind on numbers.
Well, in a way you are right, BUT I do not use commercial numbers
Only I know what I do, but there are some who know what I can do.
I hit my (four-horse) trifecta, correctly picking the top three finishers in the Risen Star. I’m just as happy if I had gambled actual money.
Congratulations to Nelson and Bill who appeared to have hit THEIR wagers with REAL $$$.
Nope, I didn’t hit my super. I keyed Sierra Leone and Resilience on top, with 6 horses underneath. All things considered, I thought Resilience performed quite well, and was right there at the end. To hit the board, coming off a maiden win, is a testament to his ability moving forward on the Derby trail. By Into Mischief, out of a Smart Strike mare, his dam side is inundated with stamina influence.
I expect bigger and better things down the road.
That said, I did pick the winner, Sierra Leone.
Good luck, Ms Blacktype.
My knowledge of betting strategies is woefully limited.
Congrats to Ms Blacktype for your accuracy… your tri box bet would have yielded an ROI of 3 whereas my Tri returned a meager 2 to 1 due to including Honor Marie, Hall of Fame and Real Men Violin in the mix.
Above all, we had a good run and as expected by the majority, Sierra Leone is the new leader in Steve’s ranking. His win is even more impressive if you consider how slow the pace of the race was.
Tuscan Sky was a revelation today… should be included in the top 15 after removing Real Men Violin, Hall of Fame and Moonlight. The son of Vino Rosso will be the talk of the town next week…
Aslo, the big and strong Resilience did very well today.
Track Phantom and Catching Freedom should be promoted to top 5 now… Honor Marie showed he is pace dependent.
Thanks, Nelson! Agreed on all counts. Especially tickled about Catching Freedom and Tuscan Sky, but there’s no doubt about who is No. 1: Sierra Leone.
:49 3/5 opening half ….race was 1/16 further and they took just under :9 seconds longer than Tuscan Sky…….also—I watched the final eight races, it did not rain…..but the track was always wet, Churchill would have been fast….. Fairgrounds must not drain very well….I can’t help but wonder if Tuscan Sky/Nash would’ve run one/two ….
The winner did not break very well….and got there—following soft splits there’s a new sheriff in town! Honor Marie did fine, you’re not going to win from last with a :49 3/5 half—he LIKES Churchill, all he needs is a second place effort—
Catching Freedom looks great … he is the value play in the Risen Star…
Fair Grounds Sloppy sealed track. Several main track races have been won by closers.
Will observe a few more races before making a final decision. So far leaning toward some strong closers.
Contrary to the general consensus, there is enough speed to make this an interesting finish.
Thanks for the update!! Made my bet Honor Marie to win. Got some superfectas keying in on Honor Marie.
For Bill Dawson (and the rest of us): Moonlight will run in the Risen Star, according to news this morning.
Thanks, Ms Blacktype
That AOC race (R3) that Moonlight was crossed entered in, has a grand total of three horses in the field. If we see one more scratch, it will be a match race between two horses. The sloppy track must have scared a lot of trainers.
Now, we have Nash (9/5), Hawk’s Creek (15-1) and Tuscan Sky (3-1). I’ll go with Tuscan Sky, who ran big in the mud at Aqueduct.
Yes! The long striding Tuscan Sky didn’t let me down. Two starts, two wins, in the mud.
I’ve got a $40.00 win wager on him in KD Futures Pool 3, at 88-1. In addition, I keyed him on top, with eleven other bombers in a $2.00 exacta p/w wager.
I suspect Todd Pletcher will point him to the Louisiana Derby for his next outing.
Once I saw the decimated field, I thought Tuscan Sky was a lock. Nash just doesn’t seem to want to go further than 7 furlongs at this point. Looked like both horses got tired, but Tuscan Sky just got promoted to my personal Top 20 list. Let’s hope the Risen Star holds together. Mud is just mud.
Tuscan Sky won with authority against a horse with Stakes experience… His time was very good as well…
(Pletcher) History repeats itself… the top trainer got many possible Derby entries :
Fierceness, Locked, Speak Easy, Agate Road, Tuscan Sky, Moonlight and Cardinale (depending on their Risen Star showings)
and perhaps Born Noble, Heartened and Antiquarian could be getting some points down the road.
Sky Mesa is my favorite horse name of all time, evokes the mesas of Arizona and New Mexico, wide open skies and plains with distant mountains.
The name Tuscan Sky just doesn’t quite have the same pathos.
Question: Will Tuscan Sky crack the top 15, in Derby Rankings – Week 5?
Small field and all he very well might! 1:43 3/5 is a pretty fast time on today’s card, and he looked good doing it..
I haven’t seen his Beyer figure yet, but he earned an Equibase Speed Figure of 100, which is pretty damn good over a sloppy track.
BTW, for those that give credence to the X-Factor large heart gene, Tuscan Sky could be a carrier of that gene.
The gene tracks back through his dam, South Andros, then follows the zig-zag pattern back through her sire, Sky Mesa, Caress, Storm Cat, Terlingua, Secretariat, Something Royal and on to Princequillo (one of the original carriers of the large heart gene). There are many that dismiss the large heart gene concept, as an unproven science. However, there are those that believe there just might be something to it. An outward sign of carriers, often have curly, leaf like ears.
I haven’t seen Tuscan Sky up close, so I’m wondering if his ears fit that description.
Tuscan Sky’s time looks even more outstanding after his stable mate (Antiquarian) ran in 1:45.73 … Tuscan Sky was about 2 seconds faster … I am not sure how the track condition changes over 2 hours but it is expected given the quality of the horse Tuscan defeated in the Allowance versus a maiden race.
I think it would depend on how close or separated the pack finish in the Risen Star… it would be better to wait and see how the son of Vino Rosso runs in the Louisiana Derby.
Steve has said that many of his top ranked horses do not need to win the prep today…!
I like Sierra Leone for the win, and Resilience (12-1) for place money. I’ll key those two on top, in the first two slots, with Honor Marie, Moonlight, Real Men Violin, Hall of Fame, Catching Freedom and Track Phantom underneath in the 3rd and 4th slots, in a Superfecta P/W wager.
That is: 4,10/ 4,10/ 3,5,6,7,8,11/ 3,5,6,7,8,11. Cost: $60.00
BTW, based on Tuscan Sky’s super impressive win today, I would think he deserves to be ranked somewhere in the top 15 Derby Rankings. In Derby Futures Pool 4, he opened at 80-1. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him drop to around 25-1 at closing. Tuscan Sky checks a lot of boxes, IMO.
I see that you are taking out 9-Carnivale from your original formula. I have the same numbers except I got Track Phantom instead of Resilience in my top two. Your Super would pay out more than mine though
Good luck
You are right about Tuscan Sky .. he was even faster ( 1:43.74) that Mineshaft Stakes winner Money Supply (1:44.04)… Pletcher would be more convinced to try the Louisiana Derby or any other 100-point Stakes for that matter…
It appears we both missed out superfecta bets.
Coming down the stretch, I thought Resilience had a chance to steal it, at big odds. Sierra Leone was the deserving winner. Hopefully, we see Tuscan Sky and Sierra Leone in the Louisiana Derby. I suspect we’ll see Track Phantom and Catching Freedom as well.
I hit my trifecta play for an ROI of 2.2 but the real profit-making exotic was to be the Superfecta.
And I won some with Joel Rosario today…
That’s good to hear, Nelson.
In two weeks, we’ll have three Derby prep races to concentrate on. The Gotham, San Felipe and the one I’m looking forward to the most, the Fountain of Youth.
Good luck down the road.
Per Chad Brown, Sierra Leone’s next start will be the Blue Grass Stakes, at Keeneland on April 6th.
The distance of the Risen Star was increased from 8 1/2F to 9F n 2020. The race split into two divisions.
2023- Angel of Empire – 1:51.47; Previous race – finished 2nd – 8F Smarty Jones
2022 – Epicenter 1:49.03 – Previous race – finished 2nd – 81/2F Lecomte
2021 – Mandaloun – 1:50.39 -Previous race – finished 3rd – 81/2F Lecomte
2020 – Mr. Monomoy – 1:50.43- Previous race – finished 3rd – 81/2F Lecomte
2020 – Modernist 1:51.28 – Previous race – won 9F MSW
Since the increased distance only one winner recorded a victory in its previous race i.e., Modernist trained by Bill Mot. Interestingly, Modernist win over 9F at Aqueduct was recorded over a good/sealed/ track in 1:54.24.
Sierra Leone will enter the RS with a 2nd place finish in a 9F Remens that was contested over a muddy/sealed track. The final time was 1:50.30. The aforementioned time is good enough to win 4 out of the 5 previous running of the RS.
Given the Remsen was Sierra Leone’s 2nd start, the colt should return improved. His less than ideal trip suggests he is capable of sub 1:50 time for 9F. It is unlikely another entrant is capable of such a time. Epicenter won the RS 1:49.03 pulling a bus. Sierra Leone in 2 starts has proven to be a better colt than Epicenter.
Given the trend of the last 3 renewal of the RS, it safe to eliminate last out winners. That would account for 6 entrants. The #1 & #2 entrant seem misplaced, so they are eliminated. That leaves 4 –
Sierra Leone
Moonlight
Cardinale
Real Men Violin
Tood Pletcher has won the RS twice and Mc Peek once. But neither 3 entrants from the 2 previous winning barns are a good as Sierra Leone. But should he falter, the winner could emerge from one of the 3. I fancy Cardinale with the blinkers off.
Three races does not a trend make …
I think there could be a closer’s duel behind the front lines and Track Phantom could benefit. They’ll all be moving at the same time, going wide and wider around the last turn. And looking to the start, Hall of Fame didn’t set the pace in his heavily praised win, so there’s no reason Track Phantom can’t get in front even from post 11. Just don’t leave the rail open for opportunistic closers, race close to the rail, front runner. That long stretch will be a test and jockey Joel Rosario should know how to handle it as well as anyone. Trying to win on the lead is a big test for Track Phantom but I think he has the “class”.
The conditions might be in Track Phantom’s favor. Best of luck.
Thanks. He should stay off the rail in the stretch if it’s sloppy and uneven, he didn’t hold last time in the wet.
For those who record in advance to speed through the commercials and commentators (I was about to say blabbermouths, they never shut up), here are the times for the 3YO races of Derby/Oaks interest tomorrow at Fair Grounds:
Race 3 AOC 1:58 p.m. Nash, Moonlight*, Tuscan Sky
Race 9 MSW 4:52 p.m. Antiquarian, Cornishman
Race 13 Rachel Alexandra (2) 6:48 p.m.
Race 14 Risen Star (2) 7:17 p.m.
Safe trips to all, and to all, good luck!
Don’t forget Race 7, as well, Ms Blacktype. There’s some interesting runners there, maybe for a bit later.
Granted, the whole card is interesting since it’s packed with stakes and preps for aspiring 3YOs of both sexes. Unless there’s another Justify lurking in Race 7 (most are firsters) I don’t see much bearing on the Derby. For later, sure!
BTW: post for that race is 3:54 p.m. Add (or is it subtract?) 14 hours for Melbourne.
Uh oh. Previous response was flagged for some reason. Too many numbers? Anyway, post time for Race 7 (mostly first timers) is 3:54 pm. Add (or subtract?) 14 hours for your time.
With the weather forecast calling for showers from now til 7 am tomorrow over the skies of the Fair Grounds we should expect the Risen Star to be run over a wet or good track… However, the track condition might become fast before the Risen Star after 10 hours of a 18 mph wind drying it… this should be checked along monitoring any track bias for the 9 dirt races before the Risen Star, specially the ones at 1 1/16 miles (3rd, 5th, 9th, 11th the Mineshaft Stakes, 13th the Rachel Alexandra Stakes)
Anyway, my tentative Superfecta is:
4 Sierra Leone/11 Track Phantom
4 Sierra Leone/11 Track Phantom/3 Honor Marie/6 Real Men Violin/7 Hall of Fame
4 Sierra Leon/11 Track Phantom/3 Honor Marie/6 Real Men Violin/7 Hall of Fame/8 Catching Freedom
3 Honor Marie/6 Real Men Violin/7 Hall of Fame/8 Catching Freedom
Safe trips and good luck in all your bets tomorrow…
The Risen Star Stakes. The rain forecast will definitely impact some horses. This is a talented group of 3 year olds. Some will have bright futures.
Honor Marie is bred to run all day. The KD distance will suit him better than the 9F Risen Star.
Sierra Leon should run a good race tomorrow. However, he might not be suited for the 10F KD.
If, a big if….should the track come up fast, Moonlight will be the surprise package.
The recent maiden winner Resilience should relish 9F-10F. I would not be shocked if he hits the board.
Thanks for the weather update. Hmm.
Looking for Honor Marie to prevail.
A win would be a bonus but just a positive run and place would be an excellent beginning.
Locked to FOY
Fierceness to Florida Derby
Per Todd Pletcher 60 minutes ago.
Catching Freedom’s works since his Smarty Jones win: :51 2/5….:49 3/5…1:01 2/5…1:00…..that’s what I like to see…..
Yes, Matthew, you like to see steady progress in the morning rather than blazing numbers.
Hey Davids… could you please repost your experience listening Taylor Swift from your apartment … Secretariat website will gain at least 30,000 milenials tuning in…
LOL
Ha ha no. I was getting ready to go out. Melbourne is a magical city at night, there is so much to do. Taylor Swift’s concert did get rave reviews though.
Good idea, though, Steve is always complaining that young people never venture on “Secretariat website” ha ha
I consider Catching Freedom the horse to beat!..
Any news on why Revised Statute was scratched last weekend?
Maybe he was doing Bob a favor? Trying to get the race to go? Horse was an I started maiden, let’s see if he goes this weekend..
Thanks Matthew.
Over that last 5 years the KD has written a part of its history that couldn’t have been conceived by the best script writers in Hollywood. See Below:
2023 – Mage 15/1 – No Derby Prep win; sole win- MSW
2022 – Rich Strike 80/1 – No Derby Prep win; sole win- MC
2021 – Medina Spirit 12/1 – Disqualified; Trainer banned for 2years.
2020 – Authentic 9/1 – Tiz The law shortest price favorite in decades – hijacked
2019 – Maximum Security – Disqualified; Tainer in Prison; Promoted winner Country House (65/1) No Derby Prep win; sole win- MSW
The above suggests we are required to abandon traditional evaluation methodologies for KD prospects. We need to align our thinking with what appears to be a new chapter being written by the Kentucky Derby Gods.
Southwest – Favorite (Carbone $1.80); Winner -Mystik Dan 11/1 – (5th in previous 2 starts)
Holy Bull – Favorite (Fierceness $0.20); Winner -Hades-9/1 (undefeated in 2 starts)
One short and an ultra-short price favorites bit the dust. Are there any favorites safe outside of CA?
Either Track Phantom or Sierra Leone will the modestly priced post time favorite in the Risen Star. Are both safe wagers?
I am high on Bill Mott’s entrant for an upset but so are others. I dedicated a post to the most puzzling entrant in the field on the previous blog i.e., Bee Dancer. The colt status entering the RS is next out 6F debut winner. Say what!!
Bee Dancer’s dam sire is the phenomenal Sea The Stars winner of the British 2000 Guineas, Epsom Deby, Coral Eclipse, Juddmonte International, Irish Champion Stk., Prix de l’ Arc. I personally never expected to see a US based KD prep entrant with Sea The Stars a either sire or dam sire. Folks there is one and he is fast. But can he route?
It is my contention that despite the colt victory on debut over 6F in a quick 1:10.92. He colt isn’t a printer but rather a router. I am even more convinced he is a router from a recent video I watched featuring him returning to the winner’s enclosure. Only a router has such an extensive stride overreach.
Given that the colt’s sire was a fast champion miller, and his dam sire a champion router. There is an excellent blend of speed and stamina. His 2nd dam Dance Secretary was out Secretariate mare. With Sea The Stars and Secretariate present so closely in the dam line. There should be further optimism that this colt possesses the stamina to effectively carry its speed over 9F.
The task of defeating a deep graded stakes field over 9F, as a next out 6F debut winner, is beyond daunting. But it appears the colt’s connections thinks it’s one he’s up to. Why else would they enter? Certainly not to get hurt!
Bee Dancer made his debut when almost fully three. He therefore has the physical maturity and certainly the pedigree. Very often pedigree doesn’t translate to potential. But sometimes it does.
I will be using this colt in my wagers primarily due to Sea The Stars being his dam sire.
First time winners first time two turns far outside draw…..if all go you will get double the ML ….
Still no word from Todd Petcher regarding Moonlight. He’s cross entered in the Risen Star (R14), and an AOC race (R3).
I’d appreciate any late info, from anyone out there, regarding this matter.
Thanks.
Good news for those following Snead’s progress on the Derby trail. After not working since 1-20, Snead worked 4F in 49.87, over the AWT, at Turfway Park, (today, 2-16). Snead finished a close 2nd to Track Phantom in the Gun Runner Stakes, at the FG on 12-23.
I’m looking forward to Snead’s next start, where that might take place is anyone’s guess. At least we know he’s not injured, and he’s back on the Derby trail.
I am glad to hear that! Thanks for the update, Bill.
You’re welcome, arlingtonfan.
Hey Steve – Glad to see Liberal Arts back on the worktab and targeting the ARK Derby. R.Medina should have LA poised for a big effort to get more points to qualify for the KY Derby. LA should appreciate the stretch out to 1 1/8 because he is crying out for more distance. Glad to have LA from KDFW2 at 46-1.
1JoeP
Just as a heads up, you can get Liberal Arts, at 60-1, in KD Futures Pool 4. Those are today’s opening odds, what his odds will be at closing remains to be seen.
Good luck
Hi Bill – I’m glad to have locked in LA in KDFW2 because only a few of those horses in that pool will make the starting gate because this pool is from NOV 2023. I boxed LA/ Field. This worked for me last year when my Field/ Disarm won for me. Disarm finished a good fourth but fortunately for me the 3 ahead of him were all field horses. Good luck on your bets Bill.
Good luck to you as well, 1JoeP
The blinkers have been added to Sierra Leone’s gear for the Risen Star. This addition is a cause for pause. Why? The colt is unfortunate not to be undefeated without the headgear. If it’s not broken it doesn’t need fixing. His defeat by a nose in the Remsen was due to significant ground loss and hardly equates to being broken.
He has a low head carriage like his grand dam sire A P Indy. I cannot envisage how blinkers will have a positive impact on this colt. OK! Blinkers could cause him to be closer to the pace. Will being closer to the pace negatively impact his explosive stretch run? That is unknown. But I just do not like he additional equipment.
This action has forced me to look elsewhere for the likely winner. Remove Sierra Leone and the race is open. What is the most significant bit of information on the resumes of the remaining entrants? Well, I do not expect a shared perspective on my conclusion, but this is what I landed on.
RESILIENCE
10/1/2023 – Stronghold- MSW 8F (CD) 22.86; 46.30; 1:11.33; 1:35.99 – 2nd by 1 1/2L
09/1/2023 – Locked- MSW 8F (SAG) 23.96; 47.72; 1:12.06; 1:36.00 – 6th by 23 1/4L
The subject colt’s performance between the two races can be viewed in two different perspectives.
(1) He improved by 21 3/4L in his 2nd start, given he was previously defeated by 23 1/4 over the same distance in approximately the same time.
(2) He registered a form reversal of 45L with the change of venue.
Whichever of the scenarios above is the most likely. This has to be viewed as the most significant resume item.
This colt’s 2nd dam Tranquility Lake was a monster race mare with earnings of $1.6M. She won several 10F turf races and was also effective on dirt. In her penultimate career start she finished 2nd over 10F by 1L in a time of 1:58.64. Her lightly raced daughter could have produced a serious KD prospect after the RS is over.
Resilience enters the RS with the fastest 81/2F time of all the entrants. With rain in the forecast, his Smart Strike dam suggests he should relish a muddy/sealed surface particularly over the extended distance.
Will he be fast enough in the lane to hold of Sierra Leone? In Mott I trust.
It’s a good argument, Chad has used this prep before and has not won it—blinkers off a layoff are not my Cup of tea, as well, still I think this colt will leave the gate as the favorite —I’ll use him on an exacta box with Honor Marie, the dark brown bulldog! I’ve no idea really–hoe wet the track will be but this guy is a cannonball, down the lane, I can see him closing but getting tired….can also see him storming home a winner, and if all go a $15 win payout!..
Watching that race, at Churchill Downs…Honor Marie is far behind the field, on the clubhouse turn….then after the race—and the very same spot on the clubhouse turn he is 100 yards in front . ..
I can actually hear Taylor Swift performing at the MCG with her adoring fans singing along with her. That’s 2.5 miles away. Over 96,000 fans have turned up.
Another cultural experience for you, Davids! Kinda tough for those who live closer to the venue, though.
Ha ha Ms Blacktype, actually people were streaming from the concert and some of the technical imagery was amazing. There was one part where Taylor dived into her platform then an image of her swam to the end of her platform where she popped up again and started singing. The adulation was extraordinary. Besides the crowd inside there were 40.000 fans outside in the huge park surrounded the MCG.
By the way, don’t worry about those living close to the MCG, all the terrace houses are doubled glazed. East Melbourne is one of the most expensive suburbs in Melbourne they are right next to the famous Fitzroy Gardens on one side and the gardens surrounding the MCG on the other.
Taylor Swift might not be to my musical taste but you have to give her something, she donated 2 million to a Melbourne Foodbank because she was saddened seeing homeless people sleeping rough when she was being driven in from the Melbourne Airport.
You don’t hear/read that kind of generosity from too many entertainers, tech Barons, media moguls etc, do you?
Time flies, is a true if also poetic saying….Zenyatta is…. twenty, time does fly …
I thought Mc Vay looked really good on his 1:01 4/5 work this AM….high action, but rider had his legs anchored the entire way, so it’s not easy to figure how much of that action is him reaching ….I’m guessing his next race will be a maiden race but the San Felipe is in 2 1/2 weeks…..this is a serious maiden!..
Assuming Joel Rosario had his choice of mounts in the Risen Star, staying aboard Track Phantom, instead of riding impressive maiden winner Hall of Fame, speaks volumes. The field Hall of Fame will be facing in the Risen Star, is tall task for a class test, off of a maiden win. I remain convinced that Sierra Leone is the likely winner of the Risen Star, he checks the most boxes, IMO. Initially, I intended to key Sierra Leone and HOF on top, in the first two slots, with six horses underneath in the 3rd and 4th slots. I’ll drop HOF with the underneath horses and replace him with Resilience (the horse I placed a $40.00 win wager in KD Futures Pool 3). The fact that John Velazquez will be in saddle adds to his appeal, and he offers excellent value at 12-1, (more so than HOF, at 6-1).
I’ll key Sierra Leone and Resilience on top in the first two slots, with Honor Marie, Real Men Violin, Hall of Fame, Catching Freedom, Cardinale and Track Phantom underneath in the 3rd and 4th slots.
That is: 4,10/4,10/ 3,6,7,8,9,11/ 3,6,7,8,9,11.
Safe trips to all.
I just viewed a retrospective of Genuine Risk on Bloodhorse. 1980 was the beginning of my awakening to racing, and i still remember that Derby more vividly than any other. It makes me both nostalgic and sad. It was the beginning of something for me, but also the beginning of the end for racing as it was. The 1980s marked the onset of breed for auction, flashy trainers, speed figures, and the slow dying of the old guard. It also marked the early years of the slow death of my home track, Atlantic City; I’m just glad i didn’t know it yet.I guess sometimes change is good, but i don’t feel that applies to racing. I realize this is what we have, but disecting the virtues of horses who rarely run and will soon disappear is a little depressing. Of course, I’m still here, and i appreciate the posts from those following these horses closely, maybe it will help me find a Derby winner.
Mailed peppermints week prior to her passing.
I cannot envisage Track Phantom winning the RS for several reasons. But the most significant one has to be the fact that Resilience off a 23 1/4L defeat on debut, not only finished ahead of TP, but was more fancied in the wagering.
Resilience ran by Track Phantom late in the lane over 8F. The additional furlong suits Resilience. Further, Resilience enters the RS with a faster time (1:43.97) over 8 1/2F of any entrant in the field and faster than the times recorded in Track Phantom’s 3 wins over the distance.
Is there something major that I am missing regarding this colt why he is the ML favorite?
Track Phantom has a chance to show his quality, great physique and most accomplished. He ran 2nd to the lead once, maybe will try that again. I don’t care for the braided manes but Steve A. sure likes them on his horses. I think they’d look stronger w/o them.
My dad would see a braided horse and say they’re getting him ready for a picture ..
I quite like braided manes on horse that have a dark hue but light chestnuts and greys with braided manes sometimes look odd.
Speak Easy, by Constitution, out of a Harlan’s Holiday mare, appears to be flying under the radar. He’s a WinStar homebred colt that broke his maiden at first asking, going 7 furlongs in 1:21.96, drawing off by 1 3/4 lengths, over the GP track, on January 27th. Trained by Todd Pletcher, it will be interesting to see where Speak Easy is pointed for his next outing.
KD Futures Pool 4 has him listed at 30-1, which is due to open tomorrow, 2-16.
Speak Easy is certainly a colt to keep an eye on moving forward.
Speak Easy earned a Beyer Speed Figure of 100 for his maiden win. A very impressive figure for a maiden win.
Take a look at the video for the last out effort for the Godolphin entrant in race #9 at FG on Saturday. A decent win could propel tis Curlin colt out of a Bernardini mare on to the KD Trail.
Speak Easy had his first breeze yesterday after his phenomenal debut … 4F in 49.50 at Palm Beach Downs…
Pletcher should be deciding where to go next with this potential superstar…
Thanks for your thorough evaluation of the possible entrants to the Derby Field. Perhaps the slow figures at Gulfstream Park are due to the efforts of personnel to slow down the track for safety concerns. Also, it looks overall that riders are pulling up horses with any issues far more frequently; thank goodness for that. Speaking of riders, I am glad that Johnny V is back riding in Florida; I think he has a positive influence on the other riders.
Thanks for your update on Conquest Warrior. After his last race, he is ready to do battle on the track. If no allowance races are available, Shug will have him ready for the Fountain of Youth. It looks like Shug’s former female assistant may have returned to the fold.
BEREN
I see the subject colt secured an extensive overview. When I watched his debut win, I didn’t pay much attention to his physical appearance, but rather his stride mechanics. If he is assessed to have the physical attributes of a sprinter. His stride mechanics is that of a router. His stride turnover frequency is way too slow to be even considered a top class late closing sprinter. sprinter.
There can be no doubt that his potential is flattered by Mystic Dan’s impressive win in the Southwest. The big question has to be. Is the Southwest Mystic Dan the same colt that finished 5 1/2L behind Bergen in their AOC meeting?
I am of the opinion he is. A Muddy/Sealed surface holds the prospect of either improving or diminishing performance in a significant way.
TODD PLETCHER
The subject trainer appears unfazed by the negative trend associated with his program. His horses will show up in the big races and then a race or two later become the latest victims of MIA Syndrome plaguing his operation.
I have a theory as to why the trainer is unfazed. If BB has the best KD record in the modern era. Todd Pletcher certainly has the best TC stallion producing record of potentially any era. See below:
Stallions who ended their career under the keep and care of TP
Flower Alley – Sire of I’ll Have Another (KD/Preakness winner)
Scatt Daddy – Sire of Justify (Triple Crown Winner)
Keen Ice – Sire of Rich Strike (KD winner)
Constitution – Sire of Tiz The Law ( KD runner up)
Uncle Mo – Sire of Nyquist (KD winner); Mo Donegal (Belmont winner)
Armed with the above record. TP can easily convince his owners that an abbreviated racing career and potential loss on investment, shouldn’t be a cause for concern as there will always be a stallion deal waiting for his graded stakes winners.
I really appreciate Steve sharing the background of trainer D. Whitworth Beckman. This is the kind of information that every obeservant fan needs for education and better handicapping.
Beckman’s broad experience with top horses in powerful stables is reassuring. One can be optimistic about Honor Marie development.
Honor Marie is by 2015 champion older horse Honor Code who sired the powerful and even more beautiful Honor A.P. winner of the Santa Anita Derby, and the good 3-year-old Max Player who won the Withers, was 3rd in the Belmont Stakes and the Travers. Max Player was at his best at 4 winning the Suburban and Jockey Club Gold Cup …
Honor Marie’s dam is half to Rule of Law (Kingmambo) winner of the St. Leger Stakes. Coming from the same sire line, you cannot ask for more staying power for Honor Marie.
Honor Marie’s damsire is Smart Strike who is present in the pedigrees of many top 3-year-olds. He also is the damsire of Mine that Bird.
Smart Strike is the sire of HoY Curlin, and of Champion 2 and 3 Year old Lookin at Lucky who sired Country House. Curlin is the sire of the sires of the last two Derby winners Rich Strike and Mage … not bad for the Mr. Prospector/Smart Strike sire line.
It would be nice to see this $40K colt (obviously a bargain now) defeating the most expensive colts in the Risen Star …
Thank you Nelson for the additional information on Honor Marie.
My pleasure Lynda… I cannot hide my fascination for those ‘Davids’ doing well against all the ‘Goliaths’ out there…
Me too Nelson!
Thanks for the pedigree information on Honor Marie, Nelson. I have a $50 win bet in the Futures at 25-1. Your analysis of his pedigree enhances my confidence in him. I’ll be keying Honor Marie in an exacta box in the Risen Star which promises to be a great race. If HM wins, I’m sure there’ll be a few horsemen that will be saying “geez, I coulda had that horse for $45-50,000”. lol
Thanks for the reply Dewey… they would say the same about Doncho and Wynstock bought by $32K and $50K the same day.
I guess Honor Marie won’t be an underdog anymore after the Risen Star… good luck with your bets.
Wynstock sold for $50K as a yearling, then $700K as a two year old …
Hi
I am solidly supporting Sierra Leone to win the Risen Star and to win the Kentucky Derby – both victories coming by multiple lengths. I feel his loss in the Remsen showed both his class and how green he was in only his second start. We won’t see him passed again like he was by Dornoch in the Remsen.
I hope it is a cleanly run race.
greg (Fan of Damascus . . . and Ballydoyle / Coolmore)
Million Dollar youngsters do not have a particularly good winning record in the KD. The last to do so was Fusaichi Pegasus ($4,000,000)
A P Indy ($2,900,000) could have been one, but he was a late scratch.
Sometimes history is the biggest hurdle to overcome.
Hi
I understand Sierra Leone hates reading History books. While this has displeased his parents, it might be a blessing in disguise in this case.
Good luck with your handicapping Counter Point.
greg (Fan of Damascus . . . and a wry sense of humor)
Hi Greg.
Sierra Leone has lived up to his pedigree and conformation so far.
If you see his video at the Fasig-Tipton website you would justify the $2.3 million the powerful partnership paid for him. He was a very imposing Yearling then and more impressive now as an athlete. His dam is the Malibu Moon mare Grade 1 winner, Heavenly Love, and his third dam (Grade 1 winner Roamin Rachel) is the dam of Japanese Horse of the Year, Zeno Rob Roy… his second dam is also of Grade 1 Caliber and by the infallible Deputy Minister… Exceptional female family indeed!
Sierra Leone has shown (albeit in two starts only) to be a promising stayer. I am sure Tyler Gaffalione will have the opportunity to display his true mettle driving Sierra Leone in the homestretch this Saturday.
I see Sierra Leone as the leading son of Gun Runner for the Classics. The Risen Star would be a good stepping stone for him to get ready for upcoming Grade 1 battles…
This Risen Star is quite different from last edition where the proven frontrunners Shaq Diesel, Determinedly, Harlocap, Victory Formation and Private Creed ensured a fast pace ultimately favoring the stalkers and closers… it was a feast for closers Angel of Empire (1st) and Sun Thunder (2nd). Two Phill’s stalking the pace finished third and was the only one surviving the hot pace …
In this edition Track Phantom, Hall of Fame and Cardinale seem to be the main pace setters … Bee Dancer is another sprinter bound to go fast early from the outside PP.
I believe it is the first time to see as many as seven horses in Steve’s rankings competing in one given prep in February… no wonder one would expect the winner of the Risen Star to lead the ranking… and some keeping their standings after a credible performance.
The Fair Ground preps have been gaining traction as the road of choice by top trainers for their some of their best hopefuls.
Cox, Asmussen and Pletcher are the winningest trainers with 3 Risen Star trophies each. They are looking to lead with a fourth win this Saturday.
If Moonlight remains in the Risen Star, Florent Geroux also has the chance to be the winningest Jockey with 4.
Rafael Bejarano (Honor Marie), Tyler Gaffalione (Sierra Leone), Ricardo Santana (Hall of Fame), Flavian Prat (Cardinale) and John Velazquez (Resilience) would be a first time winner of the Risen Star.
Some notable winners of the Risen Star Stakes are:
Master Derby in 1975 (when it was the Louisiana Derby Trial) and of course Risen Star in 1988.
Friesan Fire was the Derby favorite thanks to winning the Lecomte, Risen Star Stakes and the Louisiana Derby series.
Then we see names like the Breeder’s Cup Classic winner, Mucho Macho Man and Horse of the Year Gun Runner
The Risen Star has been a prolific Triple Crown source the last 5 years. You have War of Will (Preakness) defeating Country House (Derby winner), winners Mandaloun (Derby winner), Epicenter (Champion) and Angel of Empire (Top Midlantic-bred) with the brave Derbt runner up Two Phil’s in third last year.
That fruitful trend will more likely continue this year given the quality of the Risen Star field.
The final times recorded in 8 1/2F races for the top contenders in the Risen Star, either in victory or close defeats have been consistently modest across all tracks. Only two in the field have recorded a time below 1:44 for the distance i.e., Resilience and Sierra Leone whose time was extrapolated using the 12.88 final furlong of the Remsen. Se Below:
Hall Of Fame (MSW 81/2F)—————–23.30; 46.76; 1:11.43; 1:37.37; 1:44.27
Honor Marie (KJC 81/2Fs——————-23.70; 48.45; 1:13.40; 1:38.01; 1:44.31
Track Phantom (LECMT 81/2F)———– -24.01; 48.36; 1:13.15; 1:38.01; 1:44.73
Moonlight (MSW 2nd by NK—————- 24.25; 50.20; 1:14.57; 1:38.44;1:44..44
Real Men Violin (MSW)———————-22.97; 46.33; 1:12.12; 1:38.32;
Catching Freedom (S/Jones 81/2F———24.25; 50.20; 1:14.57; 1:38.44; 1:44..44
Cardinale(AOC 2nd by NK)—————–23.91; 47.57; 1:11.59; 1:37.34; 1:44..55
Resilience (MSW 81/2F) Fractions——– 23.78; 47.50; 1:11.65; 1:37.48; 1:43.98
Sierra Leone (Remsen 9F 2nd NS)———23.09; 46.97; 1:11.56; 1:37.42; 1:43.57 (ETP)
Interestingly, none of the above races featured an 8F fraction of 1:36 plus, which is the average split recorded for the distance in the last 20 KDs. The adjective impressive has been used to describe the performance of the winners of some of these races, but the final times reflect otherwise.
I consider Sierra Leone the most talented entrant in the field and likely winner. However, his tardiness from gates, if repeated, could leave him with a lot more to do down the long stretch of the Fair Ground oval. His propensity to overcome adversities displayed in his 2 career starts along with the distance of the RS makes this less impactful.
The form line of Bill Mott’s entrant Resilience makes for interesting reading. His last out maiden breaker featured the fastest final time (1:43.98) for 8 1/2F in the field. But does his time reveal he has improved significantly, or he just caught a fast surface?
On debut he finished 6th by 23 1/2L behind Locked over 8F completed in a quick 1:36 flat. A month later at CD, he finished 2nd by 1 1/2L to Stronghold over 8F completed in 1:35.99. That performance represented an easing of 22 of the 23 1/2 lengths he finished behind Locked in a similar time. But of more significance, he finished 1L ahead of the #9 ranked Track Phantom.
In his 3rd start, he ran into Nash at the same venue over 81/2F and was no match. He finished 3rd by 11 1/4L in quick 1:43.13. His maiden breaker followed 7 weeks later over the same distance at GP where he recorded a dominant 41/2L win in 1:43.98. That performance eased 5 to 6 lengths of the 11 1/4L he finished behind Nash.
It is reasonable to conclude that this colt has been improving steadily and with approximately another 7 weeks between starts, he could return with further improvement. It should be noted that Bill Mott won the RS with the last out MSW winner Modernist.
Further, Resilience is out of a Smart Strike mare which is major positive, given the broodmare sire’s record. The Into Mischief cross with the Mr. Prospector broodmare line produced the 2020 KD winner and promoted 2021 KD winner Authentic and Mandaloun.
Sierra Leone/Resilience ice cold exacta anybody?
I hope you’re right about Resilience, “improving steadily”, I’ve got a $40.00 win wager on him in KD Futures Pool 3 at 93-1.
I always enjoy reading your comments, pointing out the “Cold Facts”.
Good luck, Counter Point.
Steve, I do have a very, very short list of 3 colts for the Derby: Honor Marie, No More Time and Booth.
I did not see Booth in Knockin At The Door. If I missed him, I apologize.
Booth is by Mitole/Sophia’s Song (Bellamy Road).
You and others might be familiar with Sophia’s 2019 foal Bright Future by Curlin. Repole and St Elias Stables own Bright Future and to date has over $800,000 in winnings.
Sophia goes back to a horse you might be familiar with named Intentionally that was owned by Tartan Farm. There is also no inbreeding in her pedigree through the first 5 generations and only to Intentionally in the 2nd set of 5.
I saw a conformation photo of her and she is a nice, solidly built mare.
Who knows at this point what Booth can do because he has been lightly raced. However I think all the pieces are there and he has potential if those pieces come together.
Lynda, I loved his debut and sounds like he did well Sunday at 6 furlongs as well. (Am I the only one here who loves the word “furlong”? I doubt it.) I’m wondering, though, whether Asmussen will keep him going short.
No info on his next race.
Steve A thinks he might stretch out.
Thing is, he could go either way based on his pedigree.
I tend to go back further than the immediate dam and sire.
Several Derby winners and contenders in his pedigree but shorter distance as well.
LOL, guess we will have to see how he developes.
He just caught my eye and I liked what I saw.
Heading into the last part of February, if you have run three times and havent been farther than 6 1/2 furlongs, in which you finished fitth, and are by Mitole, I have to believe a mille and a quarter is not in the plans or he would have strecthed him out aleady at least to 7f. If he should sttetch out and run a super race at 1 1/8 miles I would alter my thinking a bit, but for now I want to try to keep KOTD to the horses who look to be on the Derby trail at this late date.
The morning line odds on the Risen Star Stakes.
1) Tizzy Indy, 50-1
2) Awesome Ruta, 30-1
3) Honor Marie, 6-1
4) Sierra Leone, 4-1
5) Moonlight, 12-1
6) Real Men Violin, 8-1
7) Hall of Fame, 6-1
8) Catching Freedom, 5-1
9) Cardinale, 12-1
10) Resilience, 12-1
11) Track Phantom, 7/2
12) Bee Dancer, 20-1
When the gates open, I believe Sierra Leone will be the favorite, not Track Phantom.
Sierra Leone will be my pick in the Risen Star Stakes.
Safe trips to all.
For those of you out there that like Moonlight, you can still get big odds on him at Circa, 300-1 and Caesars, 100-1.
BTW, Mystik Dan’s win in the Southwest Stakes failed to impress the odds makers at Caesars or Circa, he’s listed at 85-1 and 55-1 respectively.
I’ve yet to see the PPs for the Risen Star, but the field is so competitive that no one horse stands out and I doubt speed figures matter right now, other than an indicator of class. So I came up with a couple of trifecta boxes, one with four horses and one with five.
Box 1 ($24)
Hall of Fame
Sierra Leone
Catching Freedom
Track Phantom
Box 2 ($60)
Hall of Fame
Catching Freedom
Honor Marie
Track Phantom
Cardinale
No doubt I’ll have one (or more) wrong horse in each and since I didn’t throw in any longshots, neither is especially lucrative. Still, it’s a fun exercise.
Ms B, pp is now up on Blood Horse.
Go to races, click on Rusen Star.
Thanks Lynda. I usually check the last three Beyers and any PP notes on the DRF, but they are STILL not up yet. Will see what’s what at the Blood Horse.
Ms Blacktype, Equibase’s “Stakes nominations” have the PPs alongside early and they change according to a horse’s activities. If this helps.
Aaargh! Another source of information to master. Kind of busy finishing a magnum opus on how to remove synthetic coverings (vinyl, aluminum) from your historic house today. Thanks, Lynda and Davids. Someday, I will have nothing to do but play the horses, but I just cannot seem to retire.
Aluminum and vinyl cladding was a disaster that turned out to be. Good like with the article.
Mercifully, finished and turned in today, Davids. Weirdly, it turns out that once the sleazy coverings are ripped off, the underlying wood or brick is in surprisingly good shape. Just costs a fortune to replace the 10% that’s damaged and prep and repaint the whole house.
Good for you, Ms Blacktype. Yes, I know the costs, it’s taking years in Melbourne to remove/replace the cladding on buildings after the horrific disaster at the Grenfell Tower in Kensington, London.
You are welcome Ms B.
Looking the horses up in Japan is one stop shopping.
All of the information from pedigree to % inbreeding, race results, track conditions etc is listed.
The only thing I have not found are workouts but then Japan trains totally different from the way American trainers do. And they train over different surfaces including an uphill track.
I watch the videos of their training and they also include some dressage work.
America’s Best Racing has Get To Know article on their website that has some odds info, speed figure, yrecord so far, connectins etc on the entries for the Risen Star.
This Saturday is Track Phantom’s birthday…Happy birthday to the son of Quality Road but he has to run hard to get the Risen Star gift.
As we discussed before, Hall of Fame’s maiden win appeared to be faster than Track Phantom’s Lecomte on January 20th.
Below are the fractional and final times of both stable mates and those of 4yold Saudi Crown winning the Louisiana Stakes the same day as a reference.
Hall of Fame:—(:23.65, :47.26, 1:11.43, 1:37.37, 1:44.27) OFF AT 2:04
Saudi Crown:—(:24.14, :47.93, 1:12.10, 1:36.52, 1:43.20) OFF AT 5:37
Track Phantom:(:24.01, :48.36, 1:13.15, 1:38.01, 1:44.73) OFF AT 6:07
The estimated (hypothetical) lengths of Hall of Fame ahead of Track Phantom would be:
¼ mile: 2 lengths
½ mile: 5 lengths
¾ mile: 8 lengths
1 mile: 4 lengths
1 1/6 mile: 2 lengths
Hall of Fame ran the 6 furlongs even faster than Grade 1 winner Saudi Crown did…
The Teletimer makes a strong case for Hall of Fame but why Joel Rosario chose Track Phantom after winning impressively with Hall of Fame?
My guess is that the top Jockey feels Track Phantom was going more comfortable than Hall of Fame was. So, Track Phantom could have run a faster Lecomte… How faster? It is in Rosario head and hands. This makes sense if you noted that Track Phantom was actually faster when winning the Gun Runner (at FG) on December 23rd …
Hall of Fame was reappearing after 60-day layoff so it also makes sense to think we will at least keep form. He can also regress or be impacted by facing much better horses now… who knows? His class will tell…
Another thing favoring the son of Gun Runner is that Track Phantom will have to rate breaking from the outside…
As Billy Joel’s song goes I will tell Joel Rosario: “You maybe right I maybe crazy” but I suspect Hall of Fame will be numero uno in Steve’s ranking next week…
They are fighting words, Nelson. I hope you won’t be regretting those presumptions when your champion with the audacious moniker starts to splutter down that long, long Fair Ground straight, all 1,346 feet of it. lol.
Perhaps Billy Joel’s “Piano Man” will be the song ringing in your ears when “It’s nine o’clock on a Saturday” as you “Try to forget about [the Risen Stakes] for a while” …ha ha
Best of luck, Nelson. In all seriousness it’s looks wide open to me.
Anyone see Doncho the other day, looked pretty impressive winning an allow race and is 2 for 2, would like to get some feedback on his pedigree, sprinter??
Track Phantom has a great physique and breeding and has class, winning that last race without big excitement, just winning. Hope he wins the Risen Star, don’t care about the others too much.
Good move by Phil d’Amato sending Stronghold to Sunland, avoiding Bob’s brigade of talent…Steve I came into the sport in 1972, and 2024 looks like another “Kentuckian Year”, that is, ONE California entrant, MAYBE …but Stronghold has the name! Not a bad horse, recently was training well….
…and for that matter…on the “name thread”—“Kentuckian”, Preston Madden owned (I think)…now THAT was a name, (was he by T V Lark?… sire of the very good Quack, from that crop which included Riva Ridge and Key to the Mint….)…..
Quack ! Great 1970s Santa Anita memories ! Santa Anita handicap 1974 prince Dantan romped in mud ancient title 2 big spruce 3rd Linda’s chief 4th Quack 5th then dancing papa el extrano Kentuckian Forage Astray and Tri Jet the gallant gelding Crusading was scratched
Nick me, my brother and sister and our mom drove us all to see opening day Palos Verdes with works record (from Long acres, a very fast track) Grey Papa, who finished 3rd, the winner being Crusading, who cost $1…..one dollar …..
Thanks so much Matt and Steve for providing this incredible forum
I can’t believe anyone knows crusading etc ! There’s a fantastic crusading article on google as to why he cost 1 dollar a fun read anyhow thanks Matt my grandpa drove the 14 year old me to Santa Anita in 74 too! It was a magical era as Steve knows both Linda’s chief and Big spruce have fun secretariat connections
I thought I could post a link to that story, but it got tossed to moderation. In any case, it’s on the Sports Illustrated Vault
vault DOT si DOT com.
I would love to see a GhostZapper win the Derby. I was high on Rhyme Schemes but he was injured – thankfully he seems likely to get back on the track, unlike the uber-talented Loggins (another by GZ), who was the best horse in the Futurity last year while losing by a nose to Forte.
Steve, the Risen Star Stakes this Saturday is like high noon in an old western movie with all the gunfighters facing off in the Main Street of a town. This town being New Orleans in the state of Louisiana. It appears that these colts could be the group from which the winner of the Kentucky Derby may come, at least in early February anyway. Take that with a pinch of salt. Even so, it’s exciting and we all have our favorites with a jaundice view on who is going to win. Like the “Gunfight at the O.K. Corral” it’ll be over in a minute or so with one colt standing out, head and shoulders above the beaten competition.
That colt might be Honor Marie or Catching Freedom, if so, I’ll be a happy chappy. If not, well, heck, it’s only February and it’s months away from the first Saturday in May at Churchill Downs in Kentucky. To be honest, any result wouldn’t be a surprise and an avalanche of excuses will be forthcoming from those that failed, that’s horse racing. Ha ha
After a mini heat wave here there is a major storm heading Melbourne way this weekend. Taylor Swift has sold out the lauded MCG completely with concerts on Friday, Saturday, Sunday with over 100,000 fans on each night and the tickets were not inexpensive even for those sitting behind huge light poles. These are the largest crowds Miss Swift has ever performed in front of, apparently.
I won’t be attending Taylor’s Triumph but instead seeing/listening to Fran Lebowitz on Sunday night at the Arts Centre with her wisecracking anecdotes of life in New York. I’ll feel a little homesick listening to that rasping voice and dry humor but killing my self with laughter nonetheless. Sounds perfect, especially if Honor Marie or Catching Freedom falter in the Risen Star stakes.
Thanks Steve, for a marvelous build up to the most important prep race thus far let’s hope makes your prose proud.
There’s another race at the Fair Grounds, this Saturday- Race 7 – which may bear fruit later down the track. I’m watching the performance of the Stonestreet owned/bred Constitution colt Mister Lincoln to see what potential there might be. Mister Lincoln comes from the family of Pauline’s Pearl. It’s only a 6f race but the promise should be evident enough. Asmussen trains with Joel Rosario aboard. Mister Lincoln is also an exquisite deep red rose so there is something to think about. Enjoy the races, everybody.
Love to hear of your cultured happenings, Davids—and go Honor Marie!…
Ha ha We actually gave up a play last Friday because the reviews were bad and Candide last Saturday because the heat was too incense here. Believe it or not the theatre doesn’t have air conditioning. Palais Theatre, seats around 3,000 it’s the largest theatre in Australia.
Remember Mike Nesmith, from The Monkees, he recorded a live album at the same Palais Theatre in 1977. The record was released in 1978. It’s a grand theatre but not air conditioned.
Anyway, back to racing, all we need is a good showing from Honor Marie while a win would be just icing on top.
Davids….I went to a Hollywood party, around 1978….and Mike Nesmith was there…..
Small world, Matthew. I can somewhat imagine the party, everyone had a good time? Ha ha
I was there only because a guy I did gardening for had a 15 year old daughter who was in movies/commercials…he wanted to know the guy that was there with her ….I did not like Mr Nesmith, and will leave it at that …
Ah. That doesn’t surprise me, word gets around especially about people to avoid. I was fortunate to have supportive mentors/supervisors.
Kentucky Derby Futures Pool 4 opens on Friday, February 16th and closes on Sunday, February 18th.
The top 40 betting interests have been posted, with a few surprises relative to their opening odds.
Locked, 10-1
Fierceness, 12-1
Sierra Leone, 15-1
Dornoch, 15-1
Hall of Fame, 20-1
Mystik Dan, 20-1
Track Phantom, 20-1
Conquest Warrior, 20-1
Honor Marie, 25-1
Timberlake, 30-1
Hades, 30-1
With respect to their opening odds in Pool 4, which are the lowest of the 40 horses listed, it should be noted that the eleven mentioned above, all appear on Steve’s Derby Rankings – Week 4.
It makes you wonder if the odds maker waited to see Steve’s Week 4 rankings before they posted the odds.
Yeah, sure, Lol. I said this would be the time to bet on Locked and they make a horse who just missed his debut due to a fever the favorite. Something is way off kilter this year.
Agreed.
I don’t think it’s off, they’re giving Locked credit for Agate Road’s race, same trainer and style, he was the replacement but not as good as Locked, so they put him first. The futures look as expected,prep winners, well knowns near the top,
After reading the overview for Fierceness, it appears the colt’s form is perplexing. As specified in an earlier blog, I was extremely surprised to see Todd Pletcher’s two BCJ entrants occupying the #1 & #2 slots on every KD list. I had neither on my list.
After seeing the rankings, I was reminded of a scene from the movie Beverly Hills Cop. When Eddie Murphy was taken to the Beverly Hills Prescient. The Chief upon seeing him, posed the following questions –
Is this the man that disabled a patrol car with a banana? Yes.
Is this the man that as a non-member gained entry to a high-end member only country club and disrupted brunch? Yes.
Like police chief I asked myself the following question:
Is Todd Pletcher the trainer whose previous BCJ winners never faced the starter in KD. Yes
Is Todd Pletcher the trainer with two extremely fortunate wins from 64 starters in 22 KDs? Yes.
Is Todd Pletcher the trainer with 10 top 4 finishes in the KD with none of the 10 being a former BCJ entrant? Yes
Is Todd Pletcher the trainer with 54 KD starters that finished amongst the also ran? Yes
These cold facts regarding Todd Pletcher’s program are known to all analysts. Yet, in their infinite wisdom, have continued to assign high rankings to his horses. What part of following is difficult to accept? If you always do what you’ve always done, you’ll get what you always got – Henry Ford. In the case Todd Pletcher’s horses, you get the usual disappointments.
There are so many glaring examples as to why TP’s horses do not deserve to be ranked and should be allowed to beat all analysts.
in 2014 I witnessed a super impressive Champane Stakes performance. I saw Daredevil win whilst being wrapped up a furlong form the line. The racing world was also impressed as shortly thereafter different percentages of the colt was acquired by 2 to 3 groups. In the colt’s very next start in the BCJ, he finished dead last as the 2nd choice. He never won another race.
Princess Of Sylmar finished a weaking 3rd by 3 1/2Lto Close Hatchet in the 9F Gazelle. In her next outing in the KY Oaks she closed from 10L of the pace to beat beholder by 1/2L at 38/1. Close Hatchet was no match and was bean by 6 1/2L
When next she met Beholder, she was beaten by 16L whilst finishing last.
If Todd Pletcher questionable program and its negative impact on his horses is handicapped, instead of his horses. Analysts wouldn’t be so perplexed as there is a preponderance of evidence that his horses cannot be trusted. Inspective of the KD Prep performances, they grossly underperform in the KD.
My expectation for both colt is extremely low based on a disturbing trend.
Perhaps you should wait until a couple of more prep races before closing the door shut on said horses. It’s barely mid February and your assessment of these talented horses is, they have no chance because they are trained by TP.
Total BS.
Let’s just get the real picture here about Princess of Sylmar and Beholder.
After defeating Beholder in the Kentucky Oaks, Princess of Sylmar won Coaching Club American Oaks in July, the Alabama Stakes in August, and the Beldame Stakes ion September 28 defeating the undisputed top mare in the country for two years, Royal Delta. Princess of Sylmar had been racing without a break for over 12 months. From October 2012 to October 2013 then she had to fly to California for the Breeders’ Cup Distaff on November 1, 2013.
Beholder, after losing to Princess of Sylmar in the Kentucky Oaks on May 3, did not race until September 1 in the listed Torrey Pines stakes then in the Zenyatta Stakes on September 28, 2013. Nice and rested for the Breeders’ Cup Distaff on her home track.
The next and last time Princess of Sylmar and Beholder met was in the 2014 Ogden Phipps Stakes in June 2014. Princess of Sylmar just missed on catching Closed Hatches by a diminishing head. Beholder came in fourth.
Princess of Sylmar defeated Beholder twice to her lone defeat to Beholder in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff in California. Beholder never won a race outside of California.
Beholder was a Tour de Force!
That Oaks had a fast pace…
Too fast Matthew, Dreaming of Julia was knocked out of the race at the start and Closed Hatches crumbled. Dreaming of Julia was never the same after that race.
Dreaming of Julia’s Gulfstream Park’s Oaks was a tour de force. In my mind, the best 3 year old filly of that year but who’s career basically ended in the Kentucky Oaks debacle. That’s racing, such a shame. Now she is an important broodmare, all class.
As previously stated, Todd Pletcher has cross entered Moonlight in the Risen Star and an AOC race earlier on the card.
I find it puzzling that John Velazquez is scheduled to ride Moonlight in that AOC race but is not scheduled to ride him in the Risen Star. Florent Geroux is scheduled to ride Moonlight in the Risen Star. If in fact Johny V. has his choice of mounts, does it follow that he prefers Resilience over Moonlight?
Very interesting to say the least.
It is interesting. . He could run big in the Risen Star, but he should run big in the allowance.
Turned on my PC this morning, clicked on this site to read the Derby Rankings….and the Steve Haskin tab was nowhere to be found. After contacting the site, it took about 30 minutes or so before things were back to normal. Anyone know what happened?
Server issue. Some parts were dropped, including the Rankings, and a 3-year-old page was put up. But they did a good job corecting it.
You were not the only one.
I thought that maybe some of the conversations had taken a toll and this forum was history…
I felt the same way. I do believe there’s a fox in the hen house!
Hello Steve,
Again, you have come up with a great Derby Dozen and hopefuls knocking on the door. It is a tough year to gear towards the Derby with what appears to be a few horses that would be on the Top not being eligible to participate. I am sure, that as the race gets closer, a favorite or two will emerge. It just feels like a normal stakes race this year. My one criticism, if I may, is calling a BB horse a Hotshot looking to disrupt the Derby Trail. I would say that horse was looking to add a graded win to his own resume and win money for his Connections.
On a side note. It seems you may believe that a Timing error occurred in The Holy Bull. Is there any proof of this? Has anyone checked the video and timed the race? You would think that this has been done. If it was a timing issue, it would definitely effect the Handicapping going forward. Not sure it helps Fierceness and his poor performance.
Thank you,
Eric
I was just wondering if there was because it was so far off the norm. I would hope it was looked into, but there hasnt been a peep since the race, by the track or anyone in te media. So it is what it is.
When you look down the list of Kentucky Derby winners…..some strong names, there aren’t any “weak” names, silly names….it’s almost as if the racing gods won’t allow it…
I’ll be rooting for Honor Marie Saturday….you don’t see dirt horses kicking like that very often….on dirt it’s more of a grind, than when they kick on turf, it’s really not common….and he did it in a sprint and a route, outside of Fierceness’s Breeders Cup run, Honor Marie was the most interesting horse from last year’s two year old races, and he’s in good hands, good experienced hands..
Hoping for Honor Marie to be steaming home at the end, replicating Honor Code’s 2015 Met Mile. Heart thumping finish!!
Hi Steve
Thank you for providing another in-depth analysis on your Derby Rankings Week 4. I share your enthusiasm for Hall of Fame, he could be a monster in the making. I posted a comment on your Week 3 rankings, stating I indeed to key Sierra Leone and Hall of Fame on top, in the first two slots, with / Catching Freedom, Track Phantom, Honor Marie, Real Men Violin, Resilience and Bee Dancer underneath in the 3rd and 4th slots in a Superfecta P/W wager.
I just want to mention that Moonlight is cross entered in a Risen Star undercard race (R3) with Nash and Tuscan Sky. So, it remains to be seen where Pletcher will point Moonlight.
BTW, Mystik Dan’s performance in the Southwest Stakes, is by far, the most impressive by any colt on the Derby trail to date, IMO.
Steve
I failed to mention that I have $40.00 win wagers, in KD Futures Pool 3, on three of the horses entered in the Risen Star.
Real Men Violin, 99-1
Resilience, 93-1
Catching Freedom, 28-1
Fingers crossed.
Good luck, Bill.
Thanks, Steve.
All the best to you moving forward on the Derby trail, things are starting to get really interesting. We’re all looking forward to the Risen Star, and that AOC race (R3) is of interest to me as well.
Good luck Steve.
Thanks, Steve, for posting this ahead of the storm that may disrupt power at both our households. At this point on the trail, all of the horses you’ve written about are loaded with promise and potential. How will we all feel about them after the Risen Star? Unless there’s a massive deadheat, most of them have to run out of the money.
Provided all go, this is one of the most wide-open races on the Derby trail I can remember in a long time. Fingers crossed that the Risen Star is a break-through race for one or more of these horses.