Kentucky Derby Rankings – Week 5
With confusion comes expansion, so we are going with a top 20 this week to include the two Japanese horses of interest, as it may be time to start taking these horses seriously. But we should learn more after the Saudi Derby. As for the American runners, it is pretty much still a mess with more guesswork than anything. ~ Steve Haskin
Derby Rankings: February 20, 2024 – Week 5
By Steve Haskin
(Photo by Sophia Germer, courtesy of The Times-Picayune)
1—Sierra Leone (Chad Brown, Gun Runner – Heavenly Love, by Malibu Moon)
Well, we were looking for a No. 1 worthy performance and Sierra Leone delivered it even with the Beyer figure as usual coming up very slow just to keep things confusing. But I’ll wait for the Thoro-Graph number, as I have no idea how much the sloppy track changed from the third race in daylight to the 14th race in darkness. I’m looking for clarity not more skepticism. All I know for sure is that Sierra Leone overcame a trip in which he had to fan very wide turning for home and then storm home with a powerful stretch run and a final three-eighths in :36 3/5 and final eighth in a rapid :12 flat to nail a tough and classy Track Phantom, who had his way on the lead right from the start. We don’t know if it was the blinkers or just maturity, but unlike the Remsen Stakes when he had the race won and let Dornoch come back and beat him, this time he was relentless in the final furlong and determined to catch his opponent, with new rider Tyler Gaffalione timing his run perfectly. And the blinkers did seem to put him into the fray earlier. He still seems to have a tendency to angle in down the stretch, but this was nothing compared to the Remsen. We know how effective he is on a fast track from his maiden score, but with his two big efforts coming in the slop we still want to see if he can duplicate that on a dry track. But all in all this was the kind of performance we were looking for, at least from a visual standpoint, and from now on there will be no concern where this horse is during a race, how slow the pace is, and how wide he has to go turning for home. He has overcome it all. That is the kind of confidence you want in a Derby favorite.
2—Fierceness (Todd Pletcher, City of Light – Nonna Bella, by Stay Thirsty)
I initially was going to drop him to No. 5 until I realized no one who has run this year other than Sierra Leone has left an indelible impression and the two I was going to rank No. 2 and 3, Locked and Timberlake, he has already crushed, so the bottom line is his best is still by far the best. Therefore, for now we will do what you always do with a gifted student who has a tendency to slack off and not apply himself. You send him to time-out until he learns to get his act together and fulfill his potential. So we’ll consider him in time-out, which for now is No. 2. If he doesn’t work this week or we’ve had enough of his inconsistencies, we’ll put him in detention for a while. Even David O’Farrell of Ocala Stud, where he was raised and broken, called him a headscatcher who looks like he needs things to go his way. He added that Fierceness went through their program quietly and didn’t draw much attention to himself until his last couple of breezes before being sent to Pletcher’s barn at Monmouth Park. Yes. Monmouth Park, so make of that what you wish. Is it possible he is one of these elite all-or-nothing athletes we see nowadays like New York Yankees star Aaron Judge hitting three homeruns in a game and then striking out four times the next night or Buffalo Bills’ star quarterback Josh Allen throwing four touchdown passes one week and four interceptions the next. I am reaching for analogies because there simply is nothing more to say about this horse until the Florida Derby and Kentucky Derby. All we can hope for in his next race is that he proves he can overcome adversity and show some fight. But more important, show us what we know he is capable of and that we can trust him moving forward.
3—Locked (Todd Pletcher, Gun Runner – Luna Rosa, by Malibu Moon)
He got the first big step out of the way by getting back on the work tab following his brief illness, breezing a half in :49 3/5. That gives him two weeks to the Fountain of Youth. Pletcher had him sharp for his scheduled debut in the Sam F. Davis Stakes and now we’ll see if he has maintained that sharpness against a much better field than he would have faced at Tampa Bay. Because of the mileage he has under him in Grade 1 company we know he has class and a solid foundation, so he could certainly win first time out, but because of his setback it would not be discouraging at all if he comes up a little short, but runs a big race. Another classy horse, Dornoch will also be making his 3-year-old debut, so this should be regarded mainly as a good steppingstone to the big final prep, in his case I would guess the Blue Grass Stakes. In his four starts, his Brisnet late pace figure has never been lower than a 99, with a pair of 109s, so he is as strong and consistent a closer as anyone. But what makes him so dangerous is that in his two 109 late pace figures he came from eighth, seven lengths back, and second, a half-length back, which makes him dangerous from anywhere. What makes these figures even more impressive is that his middle pace figures both times were a 97 and 96, so he can close fast from a long way out and keep getting stronger. In summation, what we’re looking at is the quintessential Derby horse.
4—Timberlake (Brad Cox, Into Mischief – Pin Up, by Lookin At Lucky)
He is maintaining his sharpness, following up his bullet five-furlong work in :59 2/5 with another five-furlong work in 1:00 1/5. Now it’s time for his much-anticipated 3-year-old debut in Saturday’s Rebel Stakes in which he is the class of the field and an overwhelming favorite, so he should win with a decent trip. Once again, let’s go to the Brisnet figures to see just how strong this colt is. Despite his fourth-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, he is the only horse on the Derby trail with back-to-back triple-digit late-pace figures and back-to-back triple-digit speed figures to go with his back-to-back “2” Thoro-Graph numbers. His Prime Power number on Brisnet ranks first. And remember, those last two races came after Cox removed his blinkers. Numbers aside, from a visual standpoint he did look a bit dull in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, as Locked flew by him in the stretch and he was beaten eight lengths by Fierceness. But the winner ran so fast, Timberlake still paired his career-high Thoro-Graph number from the Champagne. So I am going to believe that the Juvenile was just a freaky race and we will see the same Timberlake we saw in his powerful Champagne victory and his earlier races when he sat right off fast fractions of :44 4/5 to :45 2/5 rather than come from sixth off a :47 half as he did in the Juvenile.
5—Dornoch (Danny Gargan, Good Magic – Puca, by Big Brown)
He is going to have a huge say in the Rankings when he debuts in the Fountain of Youth Stakes on March 2. On one hand he has already beaten No. 1 Sierra Leone going 1 1/8 miles and he will be facing the No. 2 Locked in his delayed debut. After the Remsen Stakes he did have some greenness issues to work out, and you sure don’t want to see him ducking in and bouncing off the rail again. You also want to see him with a smooth lead change and then you can start praising him for the way he battled back and snatched sure victory away from Sierra Leone. As everyone knows he has huge shoes to fill being a full-brother to last year’s Kentucky Derby winner Mage. The racing world never got a chance to see the highly anticipated showdown between his and Mage’s two grandparents, Curlin and Big Brown, for Horse of the Year honors back in 2008. But now they team up in a way to bring you a horse with the speed, stamina, and courage of both stallions. We saw that courage in Curlin’s gutsy victory over Lawyer Ron in The Jockey Club Gold Cup and Big Brown’s refusal to be passed in the Monmouth Cup against top-class grass horses. We also saw both of them blow away their fields in major races. In Dornoch’s last two races he did both, so let’s look forward to seeing what he does in the Fountain of Youth.
6—Catching Freedom (Brad Cox, Constitution, Catch My Drift, by Pioneerof the Nile)
I am taking a shot that this talented colt will figure out how to keep out of trouble and change leads in his final prep, which will be either the Louisiana Derby or Arkansas Derby. If he does I feel he can compete with anyone. I thought he ran a huge race in the Risen Star, despite coming out at the break and getting bumped, ducking in after being hit right-handed in the stretch and bumping slightly, getting squeezed and jostled a bit in the final sixteenth, and not changing leads. Obviously you don’t want to deal with all that in the Kentucky Derby, but I am going to rely on his final prep and plain old maturity to get his act together, because even with his little foibles he’s been running super, so who knows how much room there still is for improvement. We do know that there isn’t much he hasn’t encountered already and I can only imagine what he is capable of if he gets a clean trip and changes leads on cue. In many ways you have to admire him for always being right there at the finish in spite of his travails.
7—Track Phantom (Steve Asmussen, Quality Road – Miss Sunset, by Into Mischief)
I admire this colt’s consistency and the way he goes to the front on his own with no urging at all. When he took the early lead while apparently still on cruise control and was able to slow the pace down without anyone pressuring him, getting the three-quarters in a tawdry 1:14 3/5, you knew it was going to take a huge effort to beat him. And so it did, as he turned back the brief challenge of Resilience in the stretch and looked home free. But despite the slow pace and being in complete control of the race every step of the way he still was nailed in the final strides by Sierra Leone. You just have to wonder how he is going to win going a mile and a quarter when he was unable get the job done at 1 1/8 miles with everything possible going his way. He did kick in turning for home and went his last eighth in a solid :12 3/5, so perhaps it was more about Sierra Leone’s huge performance than about his inability to hold on to the lead. The Louisiana Derby should tell us more about him, but for now he looks to be a more of a one-dimensional speed horse who still needs to show he wants to go classic distances.
8—Mystik Dan (Kenny McPeek, Goldencents – Ma’am by Colonel John)
I was tempted to put him in the top five because, like Fierceness from last year, his best in the best I’ve seen this year on the brilliance scale. So I know what he is capable of, even if it was on a sloppy track. If he can repeat that performance on a fast track it would eliminate any question marks that might remain. He was scheduled to work this past weekend, but the track was so bad McPeek pushed it back to this Friday. Let’s not forget that, like Fierceness, his best speed figure is much faster than the others, and it is understandable that McPeek is taking it slowly with him after his Thoro-Graph number leaped from a 9 ½ to a ¼, so he is the fastest 3-year-old we have seen this year. And his worst race was when he ran back in less than two weeks following a 96 Beyer going 5 ½ furlongs in his second career start and he came out of the race with a lung infection. So this colt basically is an untapped talent with a very high ceiling.
9—Honor Marie (Whit Beckman, Honor Code – Dame Marie, by Smart Strike)
I’m not giving up on him off this one race on a sloppy track, especially with his only other defeat coming in the slop. He is still two-for-two on a fast track, both at Churchill Downs, and assuming he never got a good hold of the wet track and had to close off a very slow pace he still managed to rally from 11th to finish fifth, beaten 6 ¼ lengths and coming home in :24 2/5 and :12 2/5. On the surface he could seem like another solid plodder who is always going to close, but will always be vulnerable to pace and traffic. However, we know he has an excellent turn of foot and strong closing punch and has been able to win his two races at six furlongs and 1 1/16 miles. Beckman said he is not discouraged at all, as he was always up against it, being far back in between horses the whole way. Beckman loved the way he galloped out and said he couldn’t have looked any better Sunday morning, cleaning up his feed and having great energy, adding, “He’s ready to go again.” He still got some play at 36-1 in the Future Wager, but that could prove to be a bargain.
10—Tuscan Sky (Todd Pletcher, Vino Rosso – South Andros, by Sky Mesa)
I admit I have no clue what to do with this horse. It has nothing to do with how good he is, but where he is. Where do you rank a horse with a six-furlong maiden victory and 1 1/16-mile allowance score in the slop against basically one horse in a virtual match race? That means he has one race, a tough 100-pointer, to make the Derby cut and then go into the Derby with only three lifetime starts. What stood out in this unusual race was that he defied the speed wins match races theory by sitting a length or two behind one-time hotshot Nash, who was in this race as a confidence builder and looked to have things well in control with a clear lead over his only opponent (the third horse was never a factor and was beaten over 30 lengths). But Tuscan Sky, who had shown a quick late burst of speed in his career debut, did something he wasn’t supposed to do and that is pounce on Nash at the head of the stretch and draw off to a two-length victory after tracking fractions two-to-three seconds faster than Track Phantom ran in the Risen Star Stakes. This colt has always had a great mind and his riders have all raved about how well he moves. But with only a maiden sprint and an allowance race and time running out, you just don’t know if he is going to have enough bottom and experience to knock off Grade 1 horses in his next start and then run huge in the Kentucky Derby. So I’ll stick him somewhere in the middle for now and take it from there.
11—Liberal Arts (Robbie Medina, Arrogate, Ismeme, by Tribal Rule)
We’re moving at a snail’s pace with him, as he waits for the Arkansas Derby, which means there won’t be a heckuva lot more to say about him. He did have his first work back since the Southwest Stakes, but it was only a three-furlong breeze in :37 2/5. The fact is, he has never worked farther than four furlongs. His pedigree doesn’t help define him either, with a mixture of everything – speed, stamina, grass, dirt, U.S, Canadian, and European breeding. The bottom line is I just like what I’ve seen so far, and while his speed figures aren’t going to blow you away they are improving with every race, and his 4 ¾ Thoro-Graph number in the Southwest Stakes puts him in position to improve to a number that would make him competitive in the Kentucky Derby. His co-owner and breeder Evan Ferraro said he was always a very smart horse who figured new routines out quickly. He added that Robbie Medina was very high on him as soon as he began breaking him. So we at least know he has a great mind, which he has shown in his races.
12—Hades (Joe Orseno, Awesome Slew – The Shady Lady, by Quality Road)
He returned to the work tab with a solid half-mile drill in :48 2/5. I keep thinking I have him ranked too low. After all he is undefeated, and speed figures aside, he was game and showed he can turn back a challenge, and he did it while on a loose rein throughout. As I keep saying with Fierceness, the fractions of the Holy Bull were just too slow to be taken at face value. Even with such slow fractions and a fairly slow final three-eighths, Hades’ Brisnet late pace figure of 106 was impressive, which is another odd aspect of this race. His late pace figure in his previous start was a 101, coming off a 93 middle pace figure, so on numbers alone this horse has a pretty good closing kick with back-to-back triple-digit late pace figures. With so much focus on the Risen Star Stakes, perhaps the Holy Bull has been overlooked because of the numbers and the failure of Fierceness, with not enough credit going to the winner.
13—Resilience (Bill Mott, Into Mischief – Meadowsweet, by Smart Strike)
If I had to pick a horse who looks ready to make the biggest move forward on the Derby trail I might very well choose him off his overlooked fourth-place finish in the Risen Star Stakes. And I would love to have him at 83-1 in the Future Wager. I have watched this race a number of times and my eyes keep winding up on him due mainly to the way he moves so fluidly and his overall presence. You can pick apart several of his early races, but he looked very strong breaking his maiden and Mott normally is not one to throw a maiden winner into a Grade 2 stakes as strong and deep as the Risen Star. So you have to believe he felt he had a Derby caliber horse who needed to pick up points before heading into his final prep. In the Risen Star, his first start on a sloppy tack, he broke from post 10 and had the unenviable task of chasing Track Phantom in second right from the start, and I was impressed how hard he ran around the turn and down the stretch and how he was still battling inside the sixteenth pole before finally giving way. He has a lot of bottom under him with all five of his races at a mile or longer, and this race should get him battle-hardened. So he has the pedigree, the trainer, the jockey, the mechanics, the will, and the running style, and he handles the slop. That’s plenty for now.
14—Stronghold (Phil D’Amato, Ghostzapper – Spectator, by Jimmy Creed)
It couldn’t have worked out better for him, heading down to Sunland Park to snatch up valuable points in a Baffert-less Sunland Derby. Granted this wasn’t a strong field by any means, and he was able to get the job done in workmanlike fashion, with his main threat, the Oaklawn shipper Informed Patriot coming up empty. Tracking the pace in second through solid fractions, he came home in :24 3/5 and :06 3/5 to win by 2 ½ lengths over 14-1 shot Alotaluck. Off this race alone he looks like a decent enough colt to hold his own against most of them, but let’s remember he has now run five times, all wins or seconds, at Ellis Park, Churchill Downs, Del Mar, Los Alamitos, and Sunland Park, and at four different distances from six furlongs to 1 1/16 miles. His speed figures have been improving and he does have a convincing victory at Churchill Downs over Resilience and Track Phantom, second and fourth, respectively, in the Risen Star Stakes. Now D’Amato is in a position to pick and choose his next race, whether in the San Felipe if Nysos doesn’t run, or heading back east again. No matter where he runs, he is a horse you have to respect.
15—Conquest Warrior (Shug McGaughey, City of Light – Tea Time, by Pulpit)
He breezed a half in :49 2/5 at Payson Park and all we can do now is keep waiting to see if that February 29 allowance race at 1 1/8 miles fills. Even if it does, how much are we going to learn about him? He definitely needs to improve his speed figures, so if that race doesn’t fill he could really be up against it going in the Fountain of Youth Stakes against Locked and Dornoch. On the other hand if you want to find out if you have a Derby horse perhaps it is best to see how he stacks up against those horses before having to rely on a first or second-place finish in the Florida Derby or whatever big race he runs in to get into the Kentucky Derby. For such a big horse we at least know he is classy enough and shifty enough to overcome adversity, as he did in his maiden victory, which seems like such a long time ago. He is one horse whose ranking is based strictly on speculation because he was so impressive visually and has so many other things going for him.
16—Domestic Product (Chad Bown, Practical Joke – Goods and Services, by Paynter)
I’m beginning to like this horse more each week, as the pieces keep coming together. The way they closed off such slow fractions in the Holy Bull and the fact he couldn’t catch Hades was bothersome. But each time I watch the race the one thing that catches my eye is the way he looked visually, striding out beautifully in the stretch following an eventful trip in which he got slammed into from both sides at the break. Then he was restrained down on the inside by Tyler Gaffalione, who was pulling back on the reins down the backstretch. He was taken off the rail nearing the top of the stretch and was forced so wide he basically blew the turn, losing valuable momentum. So instead of staying on the rail and having a wide-open run after Hades drifted badly, he found himself way out in the middle of the track. It was encouraging to see him level off and run a straight course to the wire and gallop out a long way. And then when I saw that his slow closing final eighth might not have been so slow, with him getting a 108 Brisnet late pace figure, he started to look even better to me. One thing he has done that you don’t often see is breaking his maiden in his second start going 1 1/8 miles. His Thoro-Graph numbers have jumped back and forth, but going from that 14 ¾ in the Remsen debacle to a 7 in the Holy Bull was at least a step in the right direction. I don’t know how fast he is, but I am looking forward to seeing how he progresses in his next race.
17—Scatify (John Sadler, Justify – Broadway Run, by Perspective)
This is my way under the radar horse, who just needs to get out of Dodge now and avoid another showdown with Nysos. I was extremely impressed with Scatify’s maiden score at Los Alamitos in his career debut when he rated beautifully off the pace in fourth, while racing wide. He cruised up to challenge for the lead entering the turn, hooked up with the ground-saving 4-5 Baffert-trained March of Time turning form and then gave a slight surge after switching leads and edged away to win by a game half-length in 1:09 4/5, coming home his last quarter in :24 1/5 with a gap of 6 1/2 lengths to the third horse. No one beats a Baffert 4-5 shot like that. Sadler had to have a lot of faith in this colt to then throw him in the one-mile Robert Lewis Stakes against Nysos. Breaking from the outside in his two-turn debut, he was vigorously ridden out of the gate and was rushed to the lead as if in a sprint. There he had to contend with Bob Baffert’s other horse, the Grade 1-placed Wine Me Up, turning back several of his challenges while Nysos sat back in third just waiting patiently to dispose of both of them. Although Scatify had Nysos off the bridle on the far turn, he finally blew by them in the upper stretch as expected and drew off, but Scatify, despite being hard-used early, and Wine Me Up, having the advantage being on the outside, kept battling to the wire for second, with the far more experienced Wine Me Up just edging him by three-quarters of a length. I feel this colt is more comfortable settling and stalking and will improve the farther he goes. Sadler said he most likely will indeed ship out of town and that they are looking at all options, including the Gotham,, although he could stay home for the San Felipe if Nysos passes that race and goes straight to the Santa Anita Derby.
18— Forever Young (Yoshito Yahagi, Real Steel – Forever Darling, by Congrats)
We should find out this weekend whether this undefeated Japanese colt fits on the Derby trail, but from watching his last race, a listed stakes going a mile, he looks like the real deal. Breaking from the far outside in the 12-horse field, he displayed a high cruising speed and was just flicking his ears back forth down the backstretch while tracking the leader in second. He went for the lead into the far turn and was immediately challenged from the outside. But turning for home it took him a couple of strides before he changed leads, and once he did he took off under a hand ride and quickly drew away with his rider looking back at around the sixteenth pole to win by seven lengths, increasing his lead with every stride. He is by Dubai Turf winner Real Steel, a son of the legendary Deep Impact, by Sunday Silence, but his tail-female line is made up of mostly sprinters, so we should get some idea whether he wants to go a mile and a quarter.
19—Ramjet (Shozo Sasaki, Majestic Warrior – Nefertiti, by Gold Allure)
There were many things to like about his victory in the one-mile Hyacinth Stakes at Tokyo Race Course, which gave him points for the Kentucky Derby. Sent off at 12-1, he was far back early and was pushed a long way out, but was able to sustain his run a long way and actually kept getting stronger, showing off his huge strides. He was just a little late changing leads, but once he did he really powered home to win by three widening lengths. Majestic Warrior showed promise early in his abbreviated career, winning the Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes. Gold Allure was a five-time Grade 1 winner, who captured the Japan Derby on dirt. You sure can’t knock Ramjet’s four great-grandsires Seattle Slew, Seeking the Gold, Sunday Silence, and Buckpasser. He has now won his last two starts and we’ll see where they decide to go next.
20—Just Steel (D. Wayne Lukas, Justify – Irish Lights, by Fastnet Rock)
In typical Lukas fashion he has run nines already in nine months and has had at least one start in eight of those months. Following second-place finishes in the Smarty Jones and Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn, he is back again in Saturday’s Rebel Stakes, but will have to overcome the 11 post in the 13-horse field. He actually looked like a winner very briefly after turning for home in the Southwest, but was no match for the winner Mystik Dan, who turned in the most brilliant performance of the year. Although he has run well in two 1 1/16-mile stakes his only two victories have come at six and 6 ½ furlongs. Just Steel has the pedigree to improve going longer distances, and what stands out is having Swaps in his fifth generation tail-female family, which is something you will rarely see. As long as he keeps up with his trainer’s demanding schedule and continues to run well you can bet he will be in the Kentucky Derby.
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR
Two interesting horses to watch on Saturday’s Oaklawn card are the Steve Asmussen-trained DIMATIC and IMPERIAL GUN, both coming off impressive maiden victories going 1 1/16 miles. Dimatic, who won by three lengths on a sloppy track on February 3, was entered in the Rebel Stakes, while Imperial Gun, a 5 ¾-length winner on a fast track on December 31 was entered in an allowance race. Both will be ridden by Tyler Gaffalione. With Imperial Gun having last run almost two months ago, one can deduce that the reason for the time between races may have played a part in him going for the allowance race instead of the Rebel. Both races should move both colts forward, with the only difference being the lack of points for Imperial Gun. Keep an eye on both of these colts.
Speaking of recent impressive maiden winners, there are several others out there who could make their presence felt on the Derby trail in their next start and turn the Derby picture around. They are the Todd Pletcher-trained SPEAK EASY, a sensational winner going seven furlongs in 1:21 4/5 and earning 103 Brisnet figure, who should show up in either in the Fountain of Youth, Tampa Bay Derby, or Gotham Stakes; JUST A TOUCH, a 4 ¼-length winner going six furlongs for Brad Cox, who is likely for the Gotham; CAPITAL IDEA, who romped by 8 ¼ lengths going a mile in the slop at Aqueduct for Christophe Clement and is being pointed for the Gotham; and the Chad Brown-trained TUSCAN GOLD, a 6 ¼-length winner going 1 1/16 miles at Gulfstream January 31, who will either run in that 1 1/8-mile allowance race on February 29 against Connquest Warrior or look for a stakes out of town..
Capital Idea’s owners Dean and Patti Reeves also own the improving REAL MACHO, who upset Born Noble in an allowance race with a big late run and will now head for the Fountain of Youth Stakes.
Another horse to watch in the Oaklawn allowance race against Imperial Gun is the Kenny McPeek-trained FOOTPRINT, a colt with a lot of talent who just needs to break cleanly after two straight races with horrible starts. But he still ran huge each time. McPeek is hopeful that Brian Hernandez can help get him out of the gate with no problems.
If you’re totally confused by this year’s Derby trail and really want to roll the dice and take a wild stab, consider EPIC RIDE, impressive winner of the Leonatus Stakes on Turfway Park’s synthetic surface who has never run on dirt, having made all three of his starts at Turfway. We just don’t know how he will handle dirt for the first time, just as we didn’t know how Animal Kingdom would handle it in the Derby or how Rich Strike and Two Phil’s would run in the Derby coming from Turfway. If you’re looking for a sign that Epic Ride can handle both synthetic and dirt, his sire Blame beat Zenyatta in the Breeders’ Cup Classic on dirt and his broodmare sire Gio Ponti finished second to Zenyatta in the Breeders’ Cup Classic on synthetic. This colt has the talent, but he needs polishing and has to learn how to change leads and not drift out to the middle of the track in the stretch. He has the John Battaglia and Jeff Ruby to figure it all out.
While on the subject of synthetic tracks, SNEAD, who we had ranked No. 11 before we noticed he was missing in non action and subsequently dropped from the Future Wager, has finally turned up at Turfway Park, breezing a half in :49 4/5. Is it too late to find two starts for him? Will he be pointed for races at Turfway and if so be ready for the John Battaglia on March 2 as a prep for the Jeff Ruby Steaks? He did make his first two starts on grass, so he could handle synthetic just fine.
Brad Cox could have as many as four horses in the one-mile Gotham Stakes. BERGEN, who we discussed in detail last week, had grabbed a quarter in his Jimmy Winkfield Stakes score, but worked a sharp half in :47 2/5 last week and should be very tough. The aforementioned Just a Touch is coming off an impressive maiden victory at six furlongs and Cox is confident he can stretch out. LIGHTLINE was the beaten favorite in the Withers Stakes and had little punch in the stretch. He could drop back to a mile or go straight to the Wood Memorial. Another horse, AIR CAV didn’t show much in the Winkfield and we’ll see if Cox gives him another chance,
Remember THE WINE STEWARD, who was so impressive in defeat against Locked in the Breeders’ Futurity? Well, after a long absence he is back on the work tab with a bullet three-furlongs in :36. He likely is too far behind to make the Derby, but definitely is one to watch down the road.
OTELLO, who was a big disappointment in the Holy Bull Stakes, returned to the worktab with an easy half in :50 at Payson Park. I have no idea what to make of this colt now. Another horse who didn’t live up to expectations was the aforementioned BORN NOBLE, who worked a half in :48 at Palm Beach Downs. He was run down late by longshot Real Macho, regressing from a 4 ¼ Thoro-Graph number to a 6 ¼, but we’ll give him that one and look for an improved effort next time, possibly the Tampa Bay Derby or Gotham.
In the no mention of his name, good or bad, department, because so many people still like to talk about his horses, let’s deviate from the reality of the current Derby trail and briefly mention the ever-growing Bob mob that controls all of California. With the addition of IMAGINATION, who last week nearly pulled off an upset over odds-on stablemate MAYMUN in a one-mile allowance race, and with their three (as usual) vastly overmatched opponents finishing closer to Pasadena, it is almost time to put the trainers and horses back east on red alert for the oncoming invasion and a possible total disruption of the Derby trail.
Even with MUTH not being ready for Saturday’s Rebel Stakes following days of heavy rain in Los Angeles, the Derby trail’s version of Pac-Man, disguised as a white-haired horse trainer, will attempt to gobble up as many points as he can, and if there isn’t a Blinky, Pinky, Inky, and Clyde to stop him, Pac-Man Bob could consume a great deal of those 50 and 100-point dots and then switch his appetite to crab cakes. It seems likely that 150 of the precious Derby points are going to be devoured by NYSOS alone after his recent 20-point appetizer in the Robert Lewis Stakes if his trainer runs him in the San Felipe or goes straight to the Santa Anita Derby, leaving the San Felipe open to one or two of his other guns.
Pick your poison – Nysos, Muth, Maymun, Imagination, Coach Prime, Wine Me Up. Any of them can be seen soon at a racetrack near you. So get your tickets now – outta town. (This was a public service announcement to all horsemen who would rather not face the aforementioned white-haired trainer where Derby points are a premium).
Racing historian, author, and award-winning retired journalist for the Daily Racing Form and The Blood-Horse, Steve Haskin was inducted into the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame’s Media Roll of Honor in 2016. Known for his racing knowledge and insightful prose, he has been an exclusive contributor to Secretariat.com since 2020.
Dornoch and Mage, full brothers, and Mage won the Kentucky Derby. And Dornoch is just about up for it. IF he won the Derby, that would make history. What other siblings have both won big, who comes the closest? Could be half siblings.
That’s a good question….Tiznow won two Classics, his brother Budroyale ran 2nd in The Classic….
A P Indy won the Belmont. His1/2 sibling Summer Squall won the Preakness and was 2nd in the KD.
Pletcher possibly pulling Speak Easy out of FOY and run allowance race instead. Possibly targeting a later Derby prep.
Saudi Crown is in Dubai. Per Brad he came out of Saudi Cup in good order and will target the Godolphin Mile.
Good luck!
I love this horse, just gorgeous from tip of his nose to tip of his tail.
Lynda I see Senor Buscador is in Dubai…..are they going to try the 10 furlongs? I love this horse but worry they are asking too much—he gives everything —I believe 10 furlongs is more than he can handle, I get that even a 3rd or 4th pays very nicely, but I don’t want him to earn money that way—he got everyone paid–take care of him please!..
Matthew W, per the in the interview I watched after the race, the connections are considering the Dubai World Cup. The plan was to ship and let Senor Buscador tell them how he is feeling.
Saw a video of him the next morning and he looked great, cleaned up his food. That is always a good sign.
Will post if I hear.
I’ve been a fan of his since handicapping the Springboard Mile, a horse with one race a 5 1/2 furlong where he finished crazy-fast, he was 20-1 ML for The Springboard but was bet way down and won by eight… .have seen him twice up close and I love him …
Anyone out there notice the similarity between the pedigrees of Timberlake and Resilience?
Timberlake, by Into Mischief, out of a Lookin at Lucky mare. Smart Strike is his Grandsire.
Resilience, by Into Mischief, out of a Smart Strike mare.
In the G2 Rebel Stakes, Timberlake looked very impressive going 8.5 furlongs in 1:44 flat, drawing off by 2 lengths.
In the G2 Risen Star, Resilience finished a respectable 4th, against a very competitive field.
It appears Timberlake’s next start will be the G1 Arkansas Derby, on March 30th. I suspect that William Mott will point Resilience to the Arkansas Derby as well.
In the recent past, Santa Anita Derby winners and/or Florida Derby winners have dominated the Kentucky Derby.
This year, top finishers in the Arkansas Derby and Louisiana Derby could have a major impact on this year’s Derby, IMO.
White Abarrio is OK, just did not fire.
Coming home, not going to Dubai.
Will regroup and decide on plans for rest of 2024.
Good news that he is OK!
Great news WA is okay. Glad he’s coming home.
Good decision I think to skip Dubai.
Linda, agreed! Since WA wasn’t up to par, best solution is skipping Dubai. Races ahead for him.
You can have Forever Young. Not impressed at all. He had the length of the longest stretch in the world to change leads and didn’t. No thanks. Horses with the lead with a sixteenth to go were getting passed late all day on that track. He was helped by the bias too and barely caught a NJ bred horse by a turf sprinter.
Lol. Still smarting over NT finishing fourth?
Why don’t you go make some more negative comments about Lukas while ignoring the fact that he won the Honeybee at 28-1?
You were never very astute. If you can’t see sometimes his style is too harsh,that’s on you! From Mr. Z, Secret Oath,
etc. Raced Lady’s Secret so much,didn’t want to load into the gate any longer. Serena Song, ran fourteen times at
three or four. Whatever it takes, right? Also, Forever Young’s win was tour de force!
Astute? Well looky who got himself a word of the day calendar.
END OF THREAD! If youre going to disagree learn how to do it properly
Mr. Haskin, point taken.
Sorry, Steve. But I didn’t take it there.
Ouch, that hurts! lol
You know it !
Forever Young broke the stakes record by nearly two seconds and ran his last 3/16ths around 18 2/5ths WHILE racing on his wrong lead. No, nothing to be impressed with there.
A stakes that goes all the way back to ………2020? Wow, color me impressed.
Forever Young ran great!
It’s early days but I have some preliminary thoughts on the upcoming FOY.
I have seen comments on the January 27th, MSW involving Speak Easy and Victory Avenue. The focus was on the fat 1:21.96 recorded by the winner. Given the 1:09 plus 6F split he las furlong was covered in approximately 13 seconds.
Hypothetically, if the winner continued at 13 seconds for an additional 2F. A mile would be completed the high 1:37 or low 1:38. The math is fuzzy but is worth noting. The FOY is 8 1/2F and if the 8F split is 1:37 a lot of entrants will be in play.
The dirt track on January 27th appeared to be fast. The filles recorded splits of 22.20; 44.82 & 1:10.27 in their stakes race. The Fred Hooper had fast fraction for a mile racei.e.,23.53; 45.69; 1:10.28. They came home in 26.17.
From a historical perspective, I would toss both last out MSW entrants despite the fast fractions they recorded. I cannot find a FOY winner in several decades that was a next out debutant. One probable exists but I couldn’t find that one.
An entrant of interest I am researching is Frankie’s Empire. He finished 10L behind Dornoch in the Sapling at Monmouth Park. He has improved significantly since.
Frankie’s Empire has been an ATM for his backers so far by paying $30+ in 3 of his 4 wins. Yates is 0 for 31 stretching out to a route off of 2 sprints (he wasn’t the trainer at the time of the 1st sprint). I get the feeling that I’ve missed 3 weddings though and am hesitant to jump on the bandwagon for what might be the funeral.
It’s an interesting race though. I’m thinking that the short stretch Mile 1/16 isn’t conducive to Locked getting up in time, and Dornoch could succumb late to pace pressure. So, I think I’m going to take a shot that 2 of these 3 (Speak Easy, Merit and Victory Avenue) share in the Tri with either Locked or Dornoch. I’ll only use Locked and Dornoch in 2nd and 3rd and I won’t use both hitting the tri.
I’m leaning towards Merit as my Key as I think he needed the last one and will fire his best shot on Saturday at an overlaid price.
Basically, I’ll need Merit to come top 3 along with 1 of (Speak Easy & Victory Avenue), and 1 of (Locked & Dornoch) finishing either 2nd or 3rd. That’s 16 tri combo’s (I think) and I’ll throw 16 Supers with Frankie’s Empire in 4th just in case he juices up the Super.
Hopefully, messrs Ortiz Jr and Zayas have better control on Speak Easy and Merit respectively than the last time when Ortiz Jr rode Born Noble and Zayas was on Merit. Jockeys showboating are for apprentices.
Only three horses of the top 20 saw action this weekend. Timberlake and Forever Young lived up to their promise, and Just Steel was very disappointing with his 7th place finish in the Rebel Stakes… but with El Coach we never understand the rebounding game… i.e. Thunder Gulch, Will Take Charge, Bravazo, Oxbow.
I am not sure if Steve shares all the excitement caused (in many of us) by the gallant win of Forever Young in the desert, but it is worth considering that a whole country is championing a big horse to win an American Classic; and there is a very adept trainer backing the unmatched devotion of the Japanese fans.
Other names on this KotD segment who failed to make headways were Dimatic and Imperial Gun.
Also, as many of us believed, Carbone confirmed he is just a good sprinter/miler … what else can you expect from a son of Mitole who, by the way, is becoming a sire of choice for breeders of Quarterhorses. No wonder Steve mentioned Carbone only once in the (very first) KotD section in five weeks of rankings.
A bigger shuffle will take place after this weekend with the run of the Fountain of Youth, the Gotham and the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes.
The outcome of the San Felipe will be confirming who the best 3-year-old is in America, but it will very likely have no say for the first leg of the Triple Crown.
The Fountain of Youth might be providing a Derby pass to Victory Avenue who will take advantage of the lack of (the ideal) sharpeners by Locked and Dornoch and steal the 50 points under the insightful hands of John Velazquez.
Speak Easy and Merit will likely make their cases against each other in an Allowance match.
In the Gotham El Grande O will be a barometer for the speed and potential of new shooters like Bergen, Deterministic, Capital Idea and for a promising son of Justify named Just a Touch.
Gettysburg Address will have a chance for redemption in the Battaglia but will have to deal with the proven talents of Epic Ride and Godolphin’s Encino on the Turfway synthetic track.
We had thrilling spectacles this weekend but next one will be more relevant to the American Classics as the winner of 50 points will very likely be running for the Roses… and those owners will be very happy to just participate regardless their real chance to actually win the Derby.
“The outcome of the San Felipe will be confirming who the best 3-year-old is in America, but it will very likely have no say for the first leg of the Triple Crown.”
Most likely, two BB horses will dominate a suspect field and the winner is very likely the best horse in America? Until the BB charges compete against the best of the best…..that statement is pure speculation.
I post several places.
I am of the opinion that Just Steel has been inconsistent in his races so far.
Granted he has raced ten times and Lukas has him on a regular workout schedule. The colt has demonstrated some inconsistency there as well.
Per the stats on HRN his speed numbers seem to have leveled off. In that regard he somewhat reminds me of Taiba.
Per HRN as well, he is a possible for the Arkansas Derby.
It could be, based on his pedigree, that he would be more suited for turf. His Grandsire, Scat Daddy, first established his legacy as a turf sire. His dam line is turf as well.
And as mentioned by several, not all colts thrive under the training program followed by both Baffert and Lucas.
I will be curious to see how both the colts and fillies by Justify hold up on both dirt and turf. Justify’s legs are certainly nothing to write home about. I actually cringe sometimes when I look at his conformation photo.
On another note, Forever Young has arrived in Dubai. I always like seeing these horses without blankets and coolers. Gives me a good idea on how well they are conditioned. Usually I am impressed by how well the Japanese horses are conditioned and Forever Young is no exception to that. He is one “tall, cool drink of water”. If he makes it to the Derby he could be the one to take home the roses in May.
Thanks for the update on Forever Young, Lynda. I am pleased by your observation of his conditioning. I think he’ll do well at the distance of 1 3/16 m. in the Dubai Derby and then, hopefully, it’s on to Louisville. Let’s all stay “Forever Young”.
You are welcome Dewey.
Forever Young certainly has the the pedigree to support a KD win.
Yes, let’s all stay forever young…in our minds and hearts at least eventhough our bodies might not agree.
When I look at the Rebel Stake I thought Timberlake ran a very good race. I like the fact that he was able to rate behind the leaders and when Torres asked him to run he took off. And when Common Defense (nice call CP )came up the rail to challenge he held him off and even if the race had gone 3/16 of a mile he would have held him at bay. This race should move him up in Steve’s ranking this week. As far as the time it was respectable as for some reason (safety ?? ) Oaklawn seems to be running a little slow right now.
I think the race came out about average. After all adjustments the pace and final time was PAR.
But, he took over the race at top of stretch with ease and it was not like he was geared down, but just held off Common Defense.
I would not suggest the connections to make the derby the next race. He needs a better prep.
From my take, although I suspected Just Steel to be a sprinter, I was expecting a lot more from him yesterday. Unless something really went wrong, it makes me suspect yesterdays group.
Just Steel was making his 10th start. Lukas has no mercy on the young horse.
Correct!
He never cares about welfare of the horse.
Hi Counter Point,
While I realize it was 51 years ago, Secretariat had started 9 times by the time the calendar read March 1, 1973. And there were many great horses who had started far more than that by the time they raced for the first time at three.
I might be wrong but I see Lukas trying to get his horse fit and (hopefully for him) qualified for the Derby.
I hope all is well with you.
greg (Fan of Damascus)
I make the rounds on YouTube and other blogs to get varying perspectives on certain horses and/or issues. I had some views on White Abarrio that I shared on You tube channel but not here. I am probably viewed as negative so sometimes I spare the supporters of this space the agony of my perceived negativity.
The Youtuber specified 6 reasons why White Abarrio was going to win the Saudi Cup and went further by stating he would also be a repeat winner of the BCC. There is no doubt White Abarrio had his fair share of support in this space.
As all here might be aware I am guided by history.
In the last 12 renewals of the BCC, White Abarrio winning time ranks the 2nd slowest and the 6th slowest in 40 yeas the history of the race. White Abarrio ‘s best opponent in the BCC emerged as the 6th place finisher in the 2022 KD, who had not made a start in 6 months. He only defeats that opponent by 1L.
Where in the two bits of information above is there a superior older horse, who had no worthy challenger in the Saudi Cup and capable of repeating as BCC winner? I hardly believe there enough space on his face to accommodate the number of eggs warranted for his certainty of a WA win, whilst asserting there were no worthy opponents.
Tiznow is the only repeat winner of the BCC. Zenyatta come the closest to emulating Tiznow How fast did both run?
Tiznow –
2001 BCC – 2:00.62
2000 BCC – 2:00.75
Zenyatta:
2009 BCC – 2:00.32
2010 BCC – 2:02.28
Is there a 2:00 time for 10 F within White Abarrio’s scope? He must first break 2:02. I have never endorsed the many accolades bestowed on White Abarrio. If the likes of Epicenter, Taiba and Mo Donegal had not retired. Would he have beaten all three if the four met in the race?
White Abarrio’s winning BCC time was slower than the time recorded in the 2022 KD. It is significantly slower than the 2:00 plus Epicenter recorded in the Travers.
But as usual, folks make assessment without examining pertinent historic facts. Despite White Abarrio’s Whitney and BCC wins, he is not the kind of older horse that is likely to dominate the senior level.
I disagree with you about why White Abarrio (WA) loss. First of all don’t compare times from 15 to 20 years ago as tracks now are running slower (safety reasons) then they were back then. Also White Abarrio post position hindered him in this race and I think he was frustrated having to keep running behind horses but when he did get an opening he did not respond and started shortening his stride. He also was training in California and with all the rain they had I am wondering if he lost some of his base during that time? Same might said for National Treasure but he really had no excuses. WA just did not run his race as he is better than that.
Below is an extract for a post below:
REBEL:
COMMON DEFENSE
MSW -1st by 3 1/2L. (Fast Track)
Southwest (G3) 5th by 17 1/4L (Sloppy/Sealed Track)
Form Reversal 20 3/4L
OK PARK – RACE #1
MAXIMUM MAGIC
MSW -1st by 10L. (Fast Track)
AOC- 8th by 21 1/4L (Sloppy/Sealed Track)
Form Reversal 31 1/4L
:
Should the two horses above be considered live longshots on a fast track at Oaklawn?
Well, the answer rewarded me well:
COMMON DEFENSE (27/1) – place 13.60; Show $8.60
MAXIMUS MAGIC (37/1) – place 23.40; Show $7.80
Why were the above two so unwisely dismissed in the wagering? I contend poor handicapping and analysis.
I really enjoy reading your posts! I was with you on Common Defense (My only 2 prior posts on this forum were about Common Defense). Anyway, I missed the post that you referenced where you spoke of CD and Maximus Magic. I wish I would have seen it though, because I was so focused on trying to crush the Rebel that I didn’t even look at the Maximus Magic race.
I’ll be sure to take a second look (or first look) at your opinions going forward. Most of the YouTube cappers tend to come up with the same picks that I could get from looking at the Tote. Regardless, I appreciate the content creators very much as I could listen to racing talk 24/7.
Btw, Mike Beer of DRF picked Common Defense to win
Meanwhile dozens of other longshots win that no one on the horseracing websites spotted.
The field of the Fountain of Youth:
PP Horse…………………. Jockey…………..Wgt……..Trainer
1 Speak Easy (KY)……. Irad Ortiz, Jr. 119 Todd A. Pletcher
2 Le Dom Bro (KY)……. Edwin Gonzalez 119 Eniel Cordero
3 Victory Avenue (NY)…John R. Velazquez 119 Gustavo Delgado
4 Real Macho (KY)……..Tyler Gaffalione 121 Rohan Crichton
5 Dornoch (KY)………….Luis Saez 123 Danny Gargan
6 Merit (KY)……………..Edgard J. Zayas 119 Saffie A. Joseph, Jr.
7 Frankie’s Empire (KY).Miguel Angel Vasquez 121 Michael Yates
8 Locked (KY)…………..Jose L. Ortiz 123 Todd A. Pletcher
9 Dancing Groom (KY)..Javier Castellano 119 Antonio Sano
Litmust test for the stunning Speak Easy…
Nelson: Both Speak Easy and Merit are also entered in an optional allowance on Friday’s Gulfstream card, along with Conquest Warrior. Will be interesting to see where the first two end up.
Ms Blacktype, Speak Easy is also nominated for the Gotham Stakes as well this Saturday so there’s another option for Pletcher with Speak Easy. Locked wasn’t nominated for the Gotham Stakes which is interesting.
Timberlake was nominated for the Gotham Stakes, but with Timberlake now not running in New York will Pletcher go for an easier option with the inexperienced Speak Easy? Or will the Tampa Bay Derby, March 9, be Speak Easy’s next race? Decisions, decisions.
Davids, wherever Speak Easy lands, I’ll be watching. Would like to see him in a points race rather than an allowance, although I realized he’s only started once. I also think Bill and Nelson are on to something with Victory Avenue in the Fountain of Youth. He could be a monster in his second start, and Dornoch and especially Locked could be a little rusty off the long break.
Yes, Ms Blacktype, it’s hard to gauge on 1 run but Speak Easy did impress. What may swing Speak Easy running in the Fountain of Youth Stakes is that Irad Ortiz Jr has been assigned the mount. It’s a tough race for the inexperienced runners. In hindsight experience often wins over brilliance in horse racing unless you’re Flightline.
I’m just hoping that if Speak Easy runs Ortiz Jr isn’t suckered into what happened to Born Noble in his second race.
Hey Nelson
When the morning line odds are posted for the FOY, I suspect Locked will be the favorite and Dornoch the 2nd favorite.
Based on Speak Easy’s impressive maiden win, he’ll draw a lot attention at the windows as well. However, the horse that intrigues me here is Victory Avenue, for a number of reasons. In that maiden race, Speak Easy and Victory Avenue went toe to toe, setting rapid fractions in the process, (22.64, 44.61, 1:09.03) before Speak Easy drew off, winning by 1 3/4 lengths, finishing in 1:21.96.
Victory Avenue was the post time favorite in that maiden race, which begs the question why would a Gustavo Delgado colt be favored over a Todd Pletcher colt? The reason could be their respective pedigrees might have been the deciding factor that swayed the bettors.
Victory Avenue, by Arrogate, out of a Scat Daddy mare, has a lot going for him moving forward, IMO.
Arrogate, from the Mr. Prospector line, needs no introduction. Scat Daddy, his broodmare sire, from the Northern Dancer sire line, sired Tripple Crown winner, Justify. What intrigues me the most, Scat Daddy won the FOY and the Florida Derby.
Will Victory Avenue follow in the footsteps of Arrogate and Scat Daddy? I believe he just might do that. I’ll go with Victory Avenue as the upset winner in this year’s addition of the FOY.
Who do you like, Nelson
Thanks
I agree with your appraisal of Victory Avenue moving forward…I would add that he would have won his debut with a sharper start… his fractions are the fastest for a 7 furlong Gulfstream race in more than 3 years…
As Ms Blacktype reporte, Speak Easy and Merit are crossentered in an Sunday Allowance… Dornoch and Locked might not be that sharp for their sophomore debut so, Johny V will be able to harness Victory Avenue tremendous speed and steel the race … if Hades did it so can he …
Gustavo Delgado has been successful collecting Derby points with promising maidens and newbies (i.e. Bodexpress, Majesto, Mage)
Victory Avenue will be a key horse in every horizontal and vertical bet…
Locked missed work, he may go off second favorite…I doubt Speak Easy goes….
I know this is a Derby blog, Timberlake looked fine today–I have no problem with a horse who bears right—I DO have a problem with a horse who bears left, though—but Timberlake 1:44 flat not too good but not bad at all….
Today was a day for older horses, and I saw a good four year old colt–a full to Clariere named Judge Miller…..I believe Judge Miller ran the highest Beyer in the country today, in the Santa Anita eighth—looked like more than ten—was a vet scratch in January and missed work—Mark Glatt put in two works and entered today, at a two turn mile—this huge shiny chestnut looked good, looked like Met Mile material but it’s early—Glatt winning at 38% this year and in the money 70%….1:35 1/5….
Seeing a red chestnut with a true miler’s kick, reminds this oldster of Precisionist!
Agree. Big time race. Might need more foundation…
D. Wayne Lukas is having a great day at Oaklawn. Lemon Muffin just broke her maiden by winning the Grade 3 Honeymoon Stakes at odds of 24-1. The daughter of Collected collected 50 points Oaks points to become the top filly in leaderboard.
The Coach had won the first race of the card with Seize the Grey (Arrogate-Smart Shopping by Smart Strike) who looked good winning the 1 1/6 Allowance in a respectable time of 1:44.75.
Excellent way to celebrate the Lifetime Achievement Award from the Kentucky Derby Museum!
Just Steel could be riding that wave of inspiration in the Rebel Stakes…
He pushes too hard,yet his fans always ignore the fact.
Ignorance perhaps. His disciple…. which we are not allowed to name, does the same. That’s why out of dozens of 2 year olds he receives, only a few survive the rigors. The rest are never heard from again.
Spot on comments as usual!
He pushed Lemon Muffin right into the winner’s circle.
Saudi Crown was the most most improved horse in that race. Not easy to stay in front of 15 horses on a soft track. He must have set fast fractions as the final time was fast. He slowed down noticeably in the last 20 yards or so, maybe they can work on that, so he gets to the 9 f. wire. Hopefully they all meet up in the Whitney or some other 9 f. race.
Agree with your assessment… he was the speed of the speed in a field rich with some of the fastest (milers and 9 furlong) horses in the world. The sky is the limit from now on specially in the speed favoring American tracks.
Saudi Crown was the real driving force behind the Stakes record (1:49.50)…
Brad Cox has done a superb job with the son of Always Dreaming and I hope he recovers well from this huge effort in the dessert…
The Older Dirt Male division is becoming more interesting after the good showings of Senor Buscador, Saudi Crown and National Treasure… also hope White Abarrio and Hoist the Gold are OK…
I didn’t think Saudi Crown would do well, thought National Treasure might win if White Abarrio didn’t. I bet the two closers coming 2-4, not winning. Not sure what any will do from here on. With less racing and local stakes, they may not meet again. Connections got too ambitious with White Abarrio, they gave him a long time to train at BC track and less than a week in Saudi. His plastic shoes might not have worked well on the sawdust track. Easy to say when the race is over. Still a fan of WA and Saudi Crown, who I’ve liked since the Jim Dandy, watching replays and seeing how game he was, came away liking him. I think Senor Buscador got lucky and I’m not a fan of the connections, know and love New Mexico though. Did bet him to win once in his earlier days, wasn’t given much of a chance back then.
It has been a long time since I have watched horse racing that I have enjoyed as much as the Saudi Cup races today.
Interesting that I had 3 of the top 4 finishers in the Saudi World Cup.
I cannot bet of course but it is still fun watching my picks win.
Junior Alverado just sort of flies under the radar and is often overshadowed by Ortiz and others.
So happy for him!
Another thing of note is that most of the winners of the races were older horses, 4, 5 6 years old.
And that ride by Ryan Moore on Tower of London was another thrill to watch.
Looking forward to Dubai World Cup races!
Agreed, Lynda! I missed some of the early action live, but thought that the feature race lived up to the hype. I wanted that win so much for Senor Buscador! Terrified my family, hollering for him to keep running in the stretch. It was heartwarming to see the local guys who work at the track cheering for him, and congratulating Junior (who is really coming into his own)! If you are going to show up and finally win a Grade 1 at age 6, it might as well be worth $20 million. Love it. Love that a bunch of guys in cowboy hats took a HOMEBRED to the winner’s circle at the King’s own racetrack. Days like today, horse racing is so good.
Me too Katy.
I had tears in my eyes when he won.
Me too, Lynda. The production of the Saudi Cup telecast was top notch. I enjoyed the features, interviews, excellent racing and even the Cultural Ministry’s travel promos. All in all, a very enjoyable day at the races.
Agree Dewey, it eas excellent coverage of the the races.
I missed the Arabian races, would like to have watched them
I so enjoy learning about other cultures.
And that turf course,wow, just wow.
Actually think the horses love that one turn dirt track and that long stretch too.
Despite the poor showing of White Abarrio the Americans ran one, three, four —-and a hardly mentioned sprinter nearly beat Japan’s top three year old….
Good thing Alvarado was able to get Senor to switch leads, after lugging inward behind Ushba Terror….
What a race! Very happy for Junior Alvarado.
Keep an eye on Imperial Gun, running in the first race at Oaklawn Park today.
Imperial Gun didn’t live up to my expectations. No excuses.
I had the exacta with Maximus Magic. I key him with all.
The last half of Imperial Gun was slow as I pointed out. He is a modest colt.
Congratulations.
I’m not giving up on Imperial Gun, and I suspect Steve Asmussen will not give up on him either. Don’t be surprised if Imperial Gun shows up in the Arkansas Derby, at big odds. His pedigree is inundated with speed, class and stamina, IMO.
Dismiss Imperial Gun at your peril.
How much can the TRI pay?
I keyed the winner with all in all three positions.
$100?
$1,000!
Senor Buscador WOW
And much deserved. Junior Alvarado said he had no idea whether he would win, the horse always has to get out of trouble. Congrats to all the connections.
Viva Senor Buscador!
Senor Buscador is a blast from the past… thanks to the utmost patience of his team he is still running as a 6-year-old against the best horses and always giving his best … well deserved international win for a local trainer.
Happy for Junior Alvarado … Hope Senor Buscador returns in good shape and continue being the king of closers in America.
Senor Buscador translates to Mr Prospector per the commentators.
What a great backstory on him.
Possible he might go to Dubai.
The Dictionary of the Spanish language registers the word “prospector” as a spanish word to describe a person who performs underground exploration to discover mineral reservoirs, oil reservoirs, aquifers, etc… So, Senor Prospector would also mean Mr. Prospector acording to the Real Academia Real Academia Española (RAE).
Buscador would more accurately translates to “seeker” in English.
Thank you
Love his name, just rolls off the tongue.
He certainly lived up to his name today..
PS Nelon, I love closers!!!
Me, too! They should have named this guy De las Nubes (From the Clouds).
af, love that name!
Interesting that finally Senor Buscador gives some credence to the Remington Springboard Mile, a race he won in 2020 on the Road to the 2021 Kentucky Derby.
However, Senor Buscador didn’t get any qualification points because he was running with Lasix…
Tower of London, what a lovely Thoroughbred.
Congratulations Ryan, Aiden and Coolmore.
So far Frankel is the hot sire in the Saudi Cup races.
Clear weather today at Oaklawn!..
Next is the Riyadh Dirt Sprint with only two American representatives. Bold Journey (Hard Spun – Polly Freeze by Super Saver) and Skelly (Practical Joke-Adande by Bwana Charlie) will be flashing their blazing speed against the 3-1 favorite Remake (Lani)… who would have guessed that a son of Lani would become a top sprinter in Japan.
Skelly exhibits an impressive 8-win streak of high speed ratings and Bold Journey is an improving five-year-old for Bill Mott , has won his last three starts including a grade three stakes race.
And Japan wins again ! … Remake defeats the Americans Skelly and Bold Journey in 1:10.42.
Remember Lani? He is Remake’s sire.
I loved Lani! Great that he sired a winner here.
Me too
Book’em Danno was robbed, nabbed at the wire. Great run by him. (Forever Young looks distance limited.)
Distance limited??? Did you watch the same race I did? Forever Young was just getting warmed up Danno er, Disco.
I agree with Discopartner, the winner has a choppy stride—looked like wrong lead— short quick strides ….I don’t think we saw any Derby contenders in the Saudi Derby…
Agree with you Dewey.
I’m with Dewey and Lynda. I really liked the way Forever Young closed. At the moment I’m excited about a Family 2b Derby exacta (Sierra and Forever).
And what a way to start off a Saturday morning! Much more exhilarating than laundry.
He didn’t close quickly and looked all out to catch Danno who was decelerating fast. FY has raced at 1 mile or less and I’m predicting that’s his distance. He had no trouble, just not a good breaker. Danno is a fast sprinter.
Forever Young’s first two races came at the about 1 1/8 m distance.
Ms B, LOL
Ms B, my laughter was fof your laundry comment. Just thought I needed to clarify that.
I knew! Thanks, though.
As expected Forever Young wins the Saudi Derby to remain undefeated in four starts. The Derby hopeful for Japan won by a head over a very game Book’em Danno in 1:36.15 for the mile.
It was a great effort by the cousin of Sierra Leone considering he didn’t break that good and that he rallied on the wrong lead.
Hope to see Forever Young in the UAE Derby on March 30…
Very exiting race. Slow start, didn’t change leads and plus, he raced on the outside all the way. I must admit, I didn’t think he could get there, but he did with that big powerful stride of his. Now, if Yoshita can get FY to change strides, watch out We have yet to see his best. Now it’s on to the Dubai Derby.
p.s. I had an exacta box w/FY and BD.
Yes Dewey… Forever Young did very well considering all the hindrances…
I also got the Trifecta but the satisfaction of being right about Forever Young and Book’em Danno (and Bentornato) way supercedes the meager payout…
I agree Nelson. There is no price that can be put on ‘the thrill of victory’.
Edit: ‘to change strides’ s/be to change leads.
Nelson, I have read that other racing countries do not understand America”‘s obsession with lead changes in the.stretch.
Also as I think it was you who pointed out that the Japanese like to race wide.
I thought Forever Young was impressive.
Lynda, what makes Forever Young impressive is that he won despite today not being “his day”… he looked really uncomfortable on that track, running widest of all a distance that is not his forte after a 73-day layoff.
His trainer said Forever Young did not like the kickback and hinted that needs to mature more …
Anyway, so far Forever Youngs looks like the best Japanese Derby hopeful in some time and the UAE Derby (at more suitable distance) will be another good gauge for this talent…
Exactly
Happy Birthday FOREVER YOUNG ! CONGRATS !!!
WHAT’S THE REASON/S FOR DRAMATIC FORM REVERSAL
FIERCNESS:
Debut MSW -1st by 11 1/4L. (Fast Track)
Champagne G1) 7th by 20 1/4L (Sloppy/Sealed Track)
Form reversal – 31 1/2L
BCJ G1 – 1st by 6 1/2L (Fast Track)
Form reversal – 26 3/4L
TIMBERLAKE:
Champagne G1) 1ST by 41/2L (Sloppy/Sealed Track)
BCJ G1 – 4th by 8L (Fast Track)
Form reversal – 12 1/4L
MYSTIK DAN
Smarty Jones -5th by 3 1/4L (Fast Track)
Southwest – 1st by 8L (Sloppy/Sealed Track)
Form reversal – 11 1/4L
Fierceness bombed on a sloppy/sealed track in he Champagne. Where’s Timberlake excelled to record and impressive win in the slop. Both colts record form reversals of 26 3/4 and 12 1/4L in the BCJ on a fast track.
Mystik Dan finished a non-threatening 5th by 31/4L in the Smarty Jones on a fast track. In the southwest contested on a sloppy/sealed track he exploded for an 8L win.
In the 3 scenarios above, a sloppy/sealed track featured in one of the races resulting in a form reversal. It the impact of a sealed off track can be either a negative or a positive for different horses. But there are horses that will be competitive on just about any surface.
REBEL:
COMMON DEFENSE
MSW -1st by 3 1/2L. (Fast Track)
Southwest (G3) 5th by 17 1/4L (Sloppy/Sealed Track)
Form Reversal 20 3/4L
OK PARK – RACE #1
MAXIMUM MAGIC
MSW -1st by 10L. (Fast Track)
AOC- 8th by 21 1/4L (Sloppy/Sealed Track)
Form Reversal 31 1/4L
Should the two horses above be considered live longshots on a fast track at Oaklawn?
You are wrong. Fierceness won 1st race on a muddy, sealed track, has won by distance on wet and dry.
OK
Maximus Magic: Place -$23.40; Show- $7.80
For the first time in its 5-year history all the runners in the Saudi Cup, except one (Lemon Pop), have run in America. Another particularity is that 10 out of the 14 contenders are frontrunners or pace pressers.
The only deep closers are Senor Buscador and Ushba Tesoro. White Abarrio and Derma Sotogake are powerful stalkers. All four will be beneficiaries of the imminent hot pace.
There will be many sputtering horse engines in the homestretch of the Saudi Cup tomorrow.
White Abarrio drew the rail and to his right side are Isolate and Lemon Pop. The former is a super fast Florida bred who started his career as a strong sprinter able to run the first quarter in 21 and change. The son of Mark Valesky has carried his great speed to easily win two Meydan Group 2 races at a mile.
Lemon Pop also started as a brilliant sprinter but thanks to an outstanding 2023 campaign he was crowned Japan’s Best Dirt Horse ahead of Ushba Tesoro and Derma Sotogake. It is curious that they will be racing against each other for the first time tomorrow. Lemon Pop was the fourth horse winner of the prestigious February Stakes (mile) and the Champions Cup (1800 meters~9 furlongs) the same year. Godolphin got a good chance to win its first Saudi Cup with this powerful sprinter…
Lemon Pop was phenomenal while winning the Mile Championship Nambu Hai in an astonishing 1:33.4.
BTW it took watching the replay only twice to be pretty sure he won by 10 lengths and not by the 25 lengths we see in some Past Performances.
Anyway, Irad Ortiz will have to be very smart so as not to let White Abarrio be jammed by a wall of front runners coming out of the last turn. Senor Buscador and Ushba Tesoro probably won’t have the same hindrance as they like to run wide while deploying their devastating late rushes. Derma Sotogake breaking from PP 13 will contentedly control the pace.
This edition of the Saudi Cup with at least 7 horses who need to lead the pack to fire their best races, I am quite sure that the time for the 1800 meters will be faster than 1:50. That was the case in 2021 when Charlatan won a suicidal speed duel with Knicks Go but could not fend off the final rush of turf runner Mishrif.
A sensible ($24) trifecta box for the Saudi Cup would be :
White Abarrio/Senor Buscador/Ushba Tesoro/Derma Sotogake
The Saudi Cup undercard will be underway in 6.5 hours from now… it will be an enjoyable spectacle and a great apéritif to the Rebel Stakes later in the day.
Good luck to the American delegation and to all the punters out there…!
Nice analysis!!!
Beautiful day here at Caulfield Racecourse for the Blue Diamond Stakes, the premier race for two year olds in Victoria. Moreover, the Blue Diamond Stakes is a major race leading up to the Australian two year old Triple Crown races. The Golden Slipper Stakes, AJC Sires Produce Stakes and the Champagne Stakes complete the two-year-old Triple Crown.
Hayasugi wins from Lady Camelot fillies dominate. Off to ‘the Slipper’ now.
I like Saudi Crown tomorrow, in a terrific Saudi Cup—three best from Japan and US…Saudi Crown comes here sharp and fresh–as opposed the Pegasus one/two–who came back tired AND both worked much slower then usual—Saudi Crown was involved, to say the least—in 2023’s best three year old race The Jim Dandy—his first two-turn race and he was coming back late losing by a nose to Forte—Angel of Empire right there—he has an extra week on the Pegasus duo—and was not urged late—a one turn 9 furlongs will suit this lanky grey…..ex bx with White Abarrio who comes well regarded and has looked the part out here at Santa Anita—he’s the horse to beat…Im bettin Saudi Crown for the odds—but exacta–ing with Whitey…
A fast track is expected for tomorrow’s Rebel Stakes. One would have anticipated a deeper field given its rich purse ($1.25 Million) but Timberlake is the only horse with Grade 1 caliber among the 13 Rebel contestants. In theory, the rest will be running for runner-up prize. Just Steel looks to be second in the class category.
I like the son of champion sire Gun Runner, Dimatic. He is primed to continue moving forward after a nice effort breaking his maiden in the Southwest undercard. He still won easily despite lugging out violently a furlong before the photo finish… the addition of blinkers will make him run more focused.
Dimatic is a full brother to Dreamlike, who was 3rd by a nose in the Wood Memorial and runner-up in the Pensylvania Derby. His second dam is Broodmare of the Year Fun House the dam of champion Untabpable, and of Grade 1 winner and of 1.7-Million earner Paddy O’Prado. So, Dimatic got genetic license to shine against an average field.
I believe that Carbone and Common Defense will greatly improve this time after their poor performances in the Southwest stakes. It was reported that they had missed scheduled workouts due to the bad weather over Oaklawn Park before the Southwest; now with that trying effort under their belts and a fast track under their hoofs they could very well be showing a significant jump in form.
Other good choices for the minors are Mena, the full brother of Caddo River is undefeated at 1 1/16 mile and Lagynos who was 6th only 4.5 lengths behind the brilliant Catching Freedom in the Smarty Jones. Lagynos tried to wire the field in that first Oaklawn Derby prep, but I reckon he will be better rating.
I think that the only exotic bet offering decent payouts will be the Superfecta.
My bold combination is:
7 Timberlake
6 Dimatic
11 Just Steel 9 Lagynos 10 Mena 1 Carbone 3 Common Defense
11 Just Steel 9 Lagynos 10 Mena 1 Carbone 3 Common Defense 8 Next Level
I wish Safe trips and good luck to everyone!
Im putting a small wps wager on Next Level—and a Timberlake—Next Level exacta, maybe including Wayne’s colt—Next Level is a big horse—you never can tell about a big three year old in early Spring!..
Keith Desormeaux is always dangerous… remember Ive Struck a Nerve.
Talking about the contending topic of speed ratings I was surprised to see the Brisnet SR of 95 for Stronghold’s win in the Sunland Park Derby and 93 for Sierra Leone’s Risen Star. One would expect that the class of the Risen Star field was better than that of the Sunland Derby; but sloppy tracks tend to sway speed figures in uncertain ways.
Other speed figures make more sense. I.e. The Beyers are 91 for Sierra Leone and 89 for Stronghold; and
Equibase SF are 98 for Sierra Leone and 92 for Stronghold.
For all practical pursposes it is a good idea to use as many figures as possible.
So, for our blog mates here who use speed ratings to aid in their handicapping I show four relevant figures for the top contenders of the Rebel Stakes.
Brisnet Beyer Equibase Timeform
Timberlake…………….103 93 98 115
Time for Truth………….96 89** 102** 111
Just Steel………………..91 88 97 109
Carbone………………….90*86* 98* 102*
Lagynos………………….83 79 89 109
Mena……………………..86 79 91 97
Northern Flame…………87 79 91 97
Dimatic…………………..85 78 88 100
Woodcourt……………….80 73 80 101
Next Level……………….79 73 79 99
Coomon Defense……….80 73 83 99
All speed ratings, except for Equibase put Timberlake 4 to 7 points above the rest.
*Not considering last race for Carbone
** Takes Time for Truth’s debut
Very useful post, Nelson. I like Carbone for the upset, but wouldn’t be surprised by a win by any of these horses. Timberlake is going to have to work hard to impress me. Of course he’s a grade 1 winner, but he was such a flop in the Hopeful, losing to Nutella Fella in very slow time. Plus I’ve never been a fan of Justin Timberlake (much too earnest actor/singer) OR the southern artist Bob Timberlake (homey tobacco sheds in fast-vanishing rural NC, my home state). Not fair to blame the horse for his name, I know.
REBEL
Rooting for……………”When they found Carbone in the meat truck, he was frozen so stiff it took them three days to thaw him out for the autopsy.”.
He’s a goodfella and he is trained by Asmussen, Capisce!
Enjoy the race, it will be sunny in Hot Springs. Should be a good betting race.
For those interested, Fierceness has returned to the Palm Beach Downs training facility to resume his training regime.
Today, 2-23, Fierceness worked a bullet 4 furlongs, in 48.54. 1/17. It appears all systems are on go, for his next start.
Will he replicate his impressive BC Juvenile effort? Stay tuned.
Yes, I am interested. Thank you.
I finally got around to watching Imperial Gun’s ace. He displayed excellent stride extension the lane and I can see your interest. I am going to try beat him with Footprint.
Footprint had a horrible trip last out and only lost by a HD in a 3way photo. He was squeezed at the start and relegated last to trail the field by 10L. His rider took the shortest route along the rail, and eliminating the 10L deficit he struck behind opponents with the brakes applied. When he got running room, he lengthened his strides but had to hit the brakes close home due to a lack running room between opponents. He was an unfortunate loser.
His dam line is stacked with quality.
Dam sire is son of Deputy Miniter
2nd dam was sired by Easy Goer
3rd dam was sied by Nijinsky ll
Twenty prospects ranked and certain prominent stallions are not represented. The breeding business remains a hit and miss.
Most of the top stallions are well supported will full books of mare each year. The big question has to be – Why do so many prominent stallions have little or no representative in the KD?
Are there no 2024 KD caliber progenies for the stallions below?
Uncle Mo ———– -Mares bred in 2020 -262 -Live foals 2021 – 197. (Fee – $150.000)
Curlin —————-Mares bred in 2020 -154 -Live foals 2021 – 123. (Fee- $250,000)
Tapit —————–Mares bred in 2020 -96 – Live foals 2021 – 68. (Fee -185,000)
American Pharoah — Mares bred in 2020 -153 – Live foals 2021 – 115. (Fee -$50,000)
Even the represented stallions have just a few.
Into Mischief ——– Mares bred in 2020 -250 – Live foals 2021 – 191 (Timberlake, Resilience)
Gun Runner ——– Mares bred in 2020 -150 – Live foals 2021 – 120 (Sierra Leone ,Locked)
Justify ————– Mares bred in 2020 -222 – Live foals 2021 – 174 (Scatify)
City Of Light’s ——-Mares bred in 2020 -146 – Live foals 2021 – 109 (Conquest Warrior; Fierceness)
I predict City of Light will have another after Lightline’s next race. Impressive work this morning.
MYSTIK DAN
No one could have envisaged the 8L blow out in the 81/2F Southwest recorded by the subject colt. Does this performance warrant a Red Flag? Well, he finished off the board by a combined 11 1/4L in his two previous starts over 8F & 81/2F.
SOUTHWEAT ON MUDDY/SLOPPY & SEALED TRACK
2024 – Mystik Dan – 1:43.67
2023 – Arabian Knight -1:43.50
2021 – Essential Quality – 1:45.48
2018 – My Boy Jack – 1:46
2015 – Far Right – 1:47.50
2013 – Super Ninety-Nine – 1:44.84
Listed above are the SW Stakes that have been contested on off tracks since the distance was increased from 8F to 81/2F in 2011. The last 2 renewals were exceptionally fast.
Arabian Knight (1:43.50) was a highly regarded KD prospect off his smashing 7 1/4L debut win over 7F in 1:21.98. He was expected to run fast in the SW and he duly obliged.
Mystik Dan (1:43.67) entered the SW off a 5th place finish by 3 1/4L in the Smarty Jones completed in 1:44.59. He was expected to be competitive but certainly not 8L blow out competitive.
His from reversal between the Smarty Jones and SW was 11 1/4L, Just Steel finished ahead of Mystik Dan in the Smarty Jones. In the SW he erased the 3/4L deficit to Just Steel and added 8L.
When Mystik Dan wins he wins big. He broke his maiden over 5 1/2F in a quick 1:03 plus by 7L. This colt was close enough in his route races at the finish to suggest that with improvement and a surface he relishes, it is possible he could deliver his SW performance. No Red Flag assignment warranted.
Mystik Dan is the only one of the US based prospects ranked above, with an irregular dam line. His dam was sired by the Tiznow stallion Colonel John. Tiznow was the dam sire of the highjacked 2020 Kentucky Derby post time favorites Tiz The Law that finished 2nd. The very talented Parchment Pary was produced from a Tiznow mare.
If Mystik Dan’s SW performance was not aided and abetted by the sloppy/sealed track. His performance must be viewed as a turning point in his career. His sire Goldencents was a 2times BC Dirt Mile winer. His grand dam sire Tiznow was 2times BCC winner. His pedigree therefore contains a lethal combination speed and stamina.
He probably deserved higher raking, given #3 to #6 do not have an equivalent explosive performance on their resumes.
American speed on dirt is always highly regarded in International races. The speedy Bentornato and Book’em Danno will be the barometers to the undefeated Japanese hopeful Forever Young in the mile of the Saudi Derby.
Bentornato won the first two races of the Florida Sire Stakes Series (Dr. Fager (6F) and Affirmed Stakes(7F) ) but could not do better than third as the 1 to 5 favorite in the 1 1/6-mile of the In Reality Stakes. There Bentornato signaled distance limitation which is not the case for Book’em Danno who was a game runner up in the mile of the Nashua Stakes before winning the Pasco Stakes by 12 lengths at Tampa. The mile should be well within the reach of Book’em Danno but he will have to run hard to fend off the late charge of Forever Young.
BTW Forever Young’s trainer, Yoshito Yahagi, won the Saudi Cup with the turf runner Panthalassa and the Turf Sprint with Bathrat Leon last year. Also, his trainee Stay Foolish won the Red Sea Turf Handicap on the 2022 Saudi Cup undercard… so, his horses are ready and able for big wins in the desert…
Forever Young will be the deserving odds-on favorite in the Saudi Derby, but there is another Japanese who will be likely overlooked by the bettors because he’s exclusively run on turf and his last race was a subpar performance. Set Up (Declaration of War (War Front) – Three Arrow (JPN) (Aldebaran)) has displayed tremendous cruising speed in all his four starts. His 7th place finish only 3 lengths behind the winner in the Group 1 Asahi Hai Futurity Stakes on December 17th can be forgiven as he was reappearing after 3.5-month layoff. In fact, Set Up gained 30 pounds for his first Grade 1 contest…he obviously needed the race and should be in better condition this time.
You will find Set Up to be a plausible long shot if you can excuse his only off-board performance and assume he can successfully translate his form to the particular Riyadh dirt track.
Among the 12 competitors of the Saudi Derby, Set Up is the only Japanese with a Group 3 win albeit on turf; and the Argentinian Oasis Boy (Asiatic Boy) is the only Group 2 winner on dirt (Premio Clasico Miguel Cane last July 29). Oasis Boy (foaled on August 10, 2020) will carry 10 pounds more than the rest (131 pounds) as he is considered a 4 year old by Northern Hemisphere convention.
I am rooting for the American horses but one cannot ignore the rising international tide of Japanese success particularly in Saudi Arabia…
I’m hoping Book’em Danno has a big year. Low key connections are managing him well. No designs on the KD, and as a gelding, we may get to see a racehorse for awhile.
Hey Nelson, I’m looking over the PP’s for the Saudi Derby and I must say your analysis of the race is spot on. I agree that Book’em Danno is a prime threat, but I’ll be rooting for Forever Young to be there at the end. Forever Young doesn’t have to win, but as long as he gives a good account of himself, he’ll be going on to Dubai where the 1 3/16 distance s/be more to his liking and a good prep for KD.
BTW I watched a video on Bloodhorse that showed the Japanese horses schooling in the gate. Forever Young acted nervously and was sweating significantly. Not sure what effect the heat will have on him for the race. Anxious to see him run.
This is short and sweet as I’m not feeling very loquacious this evening. I am intrigued with Stronghold. I love his story. I love the fact he’s had success on each of the 5 different tracks he’s raced on . I love the fact his speed figures have been consistent and improving. He hasn’t laid an egg yet, unlike Fierceness who I was previously very high on. Me and almost everyone else!
I’m looking forward to seeing how Imperial Gun performs in that AOC race (R1) on Saturday’s Oaklawn card. He’s listed as the morning line favorite, at 9/5, followed by Brown Cover, at 2-1. He’s in good hands with Steve Asmussen, and Tyler Gaffalione should be a good fit aboard Imperial Gun.
Imperial Gun, by Gun Runner, out of an Empire Maker mare, displayed speed and stamina in his maiden win, last out.
In the event he wins the race, Asmussen will have several options as to where he will point Imperial Gun for his next start.
Rest assured, it will be a Derby prep race.
BTW, his 2nd dam, Memorette was a graded router winning close to 900K in her career.
Imperial Gun is another bomber that I bet in Futures Pool 3, at 80-1, ($40.00 to win + $2.00 exacta p/w wagers)
“Imperial Gun, by Gun Runner displayed speed and stamina in his maiden win”
Fractions – 23.4; 47.83; 1:13.74; 1:39.70; 1:45.96′
Did you miss using an adjective to describe the speed displayed by Imperial Gun?
It appears the surface Oaklawn has been producing slow times. The above figures are mixed. Up to 6F decent. The next 2 /12F must be considered modest to slow. But I haven’t watched the video of the race. Consequently, my reply from a position of ignorance.
Smarty Jones (fast) – Catching Freedom -1:44.59
Southwest (Muddy)- Mystik Dan – 1:46.67
Hey Counter Point
When Coldfacts used to post comments on this blog, he had the reputation as a “Contrarian”. Judging by your comments, I would add that description as an example of the similarity your share with our old friend, Coldfacts.
I have stated in past comments that I “take you at your word”, that you are not Coldfacts. However, it’s getting harder and harder for me to feel that way.
Have a nice day Counter Point.
I just checked Circa and Mystik Dan is now 35-1, would have liked to put a few more dollars at the 60-1 he was a few days ago! I don’t think my small wagers from earlier this week moved the line!
More than likely, one of those casino high rollers laid down a grand or two on Mystik Dan to win. That would certainly move the odds.
Good luck biggy312.
Hi Bill!
I think you are right.
Best of luck to you….In fact, earlier this year, I used one of your lists to start my handicapping process for this year’s Derby, so thank you very much! I hope you cash one of your big ones, you certainly have lots of chances!!!
Right On, biggy312.
I still like Track Phantom. If he doesn’t like muddy tracks, he should improve next time.
Should run better on a a dry track.
More than the off track, my concern is that he may not want the extra distance, although his pedigree doesn’t read distance limitations. Still, he was able to take the lead in slow(ish) fractions but couldn’t hold off Sierra Leone. I like him very much and I hope it was just a bit of an off race for him or a great race by Sierra Leone.
Everyone says that, but he may be a frontrunner with stamina. The connections tried going way slow with him, he may be capable of more. I’d rather wait and see than listen to non-fans of his (I don’t mean you). I’ve always felt “handicappers” can be the most insulting people. Fans with knowledge are much kinder and actually like some horses.
For me, last year it was closers, this year it’s frontrunners and “just off the pace” types.
Yes, Track Phantom ran better than I anticipated. As noted above, he had a tremendous trip in the slop but nevertheless was surpris
ingly strong to the wire. His talent and heart are manifest. I ‘m not prepared
To throw him out yet.
Me either, good luck to Track Phantom, his name is fun to cheer on, doesn’t really match his earnest personality but it’s a good name to have.
At the quarter pole Track Phantom should be in perfect position, from there it’s up to him and the racing gods.
Sierra Leone:
Gun Runner- out of Heavenly Love by Malibu Moon
Locked:
Gun Runner- out of Luna Rosa Love by Malibu Moon
The prospect of the above two finishing on the board was remote before a realize both share sire and dam sire. One isn’t going to make the board and it is obvious who that is. He has 54 previous stable mates that have done so.
What exactly is a ‘Wow Moment’ in Thoroughbred Racing?
The above question was posed in a previous submission. In that submission I revealed that the 2 KD prospects that recorded Wow Moments for me were Sierra Leone and Parchment Party. It is unfortunate the PP is off the KD Trail as he was ranked slightly above Sierra Leone based oh stride mechanics.
When I see Sierra Leone, I reminded of A P Indy his grand dam sire. When I see Parchment Party, he reminds me of Cigar. Interestingly, the incomparable one was also trained by Bill Mott.
Cream always rises to the top. When I saw Locked ranked at #2 everywhere. I took 2 shots of J/Balck and said I need to be drunk to understand such a ranking.
The BCJ was on the 3rd of November. Locked closed into real estate long vacated by others to finish 3rd. Approximately a month later Sierra Leaon finished 2nd on a muddy/sealed, speed bias surface, whilst easing a 12L deficit and losing ground with a 7W turn run and whilst drifting toward the rail.
Somehow, experienced analysts deemed the workmanlike 3rd place finish by Locked in the BCJ, to be far more noteworthy than Sierra Leone’ 2nd place in the Remsen with adversities.
I would appreciate any fan of Locked to provide in complex language what exactly made Locked BCJ performance more noteworthy than that of Sierra Leone in the Remsen. Then I can state you write in a language with which I am unfamiliar. I understand simple language but somehow an explanation in simple language I wouldn’t understand.
RESILLIENCE:
I had a decent wager on the Sierra Leone/Resilience exacta. I was therefore disappointed that the colt flattened out late. He had previously defeated Track Phanom over a shorter distance. He was forwardly placed and within range to run by TP. But not only didn’t do that he allowed two others to go by.
Should I jump ship? Certainly not! I am a Mott man and in Mott I trust.
FAIR GROUNDS RACE #9
No comments on the 1st and 2nd place finished in the subject race. Godolphin Cornishman a Curlin colt out of a Bernardini mare and trained by Brad Cox, appears to be a nice router in development. He is still a maiden probably behind for the KD, but Cox could get bold and throw in in the deep end give how so many backed up in the Risen Star..
CP I would not dismiss LOCKED as a contender especially if he runs (comes from way off the pace) like he did in the BC Juvenile. I contend that the last furlong of that race he was actually running very hard and gaining on the leaders. If Pletcher is going to win the KD it is with a horse with that running style. He and AGATE ROAD are two horses I feel he has his best chance of winning the KD.
Maymun is my favorite horse of this crop ….I’m bullish on Locked …..Sierra Leone, Fierceness, Tuscan Sky, Honor Marie, Nysos and Mystic Dan all have impressed me ….
What has Maymun done to impress you so much?
I watch head ons, of the races…he ran arrow straight in his maiden, after missing two works—-worked a week later, then again in 7 days then 7 days later he tried two turns, a busy three weeks, and he ran 1:36 3/5 which is pretty solid, getting passed by nearly one length but finding more after toiling inside for nearly a furlong .. and won going away —and he again ran straight— by a son of Tapit out of a Indian Charlie mare and he carries his head like Flightline, whom he shares bloodlines with I just like him, I dont like to get into the politics of a racehorse, the horses, they are innocent, this guy checks a lot of boxes for me —and I wish him well….
Matthew: I agree with your assessments. Right now I believe that Maynum is the best 3 year old in the land. The Santa Anita Derby is his to lose.
Yes, Deacon, a couple old-timers like us know what a good horse looks like!
Although I agree with Maymun is a very good horse and definitely one of the best 3 years old this year. I feel NYSOS is the top 3 year old. His demeanor, patience and running style are tops in my assessment. He is push button when asked to run. Not sure were Baffert is planning on running any of his 3 years old but I would definitely not run Maymun against Nysos and vice versa. To many opportunities elsewhere. I think Baffert will keep Nysos at SA for the SA Derby. I think Maymun will be sent out of town. Would he point Maymun at the Met Mile? Possibility
I think it’s way too early to say any of that, they have to go more than a mile and go against good competition and more runners. Sure both of them look good and history suggests they have a good chance to win their preps and future stakes under their trainer, but there are other race horses out there, who also want to win and have talent, and have already shown it at longer distances. I like Dornach who should soon be emerging from hibernation his trainer has him in.
I can understand your admiration for Maymun, Matthew. He has that ‘je ne sais quoi’ about him that you sense when watching a potentially special horse. I remember watching Flightline’s first start and, although, you have seen many horses win with ridiculous ease on their initial start you sensed Flightline was ‘something else.’ Not that I think Maymun is the second coming of Flightline but if he’s managed similarly the potential of ‘greatness’ could be constructed.
Maymun, looks a crack miler to me and the pedigree hints that European turf would suit. Imagine another US runner winning the Queen Anne Stakes or the Sussex Stakes then taking the Breeders’ Cup Mile, replicating Tepin.
Matthew I wrote a longer post agreeing with you but it’s waiting moderation. I used a French saying which may have upset the AI. lol.
I agree Matthew, if Maymun stays healthy, he will at least be a top miler like Charlton. Now if Bob further develops he could be any kind. Nysos though with those massive BSF towers over this crop so far.
There is one good thing with the Baffert horses not being eligible to run in the Kentucky Derby it allows him to prepare runners at a lesser frenzied pace, for other races down the track. Granted the Preakness is only two weeks after the Derby but not all of them will be set for that race. The Met Mile or the Woody Stephens on Belmont Stakes day at Saratoga would be extremely desirable to win.
Track Phantom has also impressed me, he always breaks wanting the front and he battles anyone who tries to take it away from him, in the long run this is a horse that’s going to win lots of races….
With apologies to Steve-here’s a happy diversion…
Starting today MLB returns, albeit the first spring training game, in what amounts to eight straight months of day in and day out games.
Los Angeles Dodgers against the San Diego Padres in Peoria with sunny skies and temps in the mid 70’s (ESPN).
“Welcome back baseball, welcome back” – Dave Niehaus, Seattle Mariners many years ago that become the opening day ballard for the M’s for years.
I’d like to watch Forever Young on Sat, does anyone know what time his race goes off….local time? Thanks!
Post time for the Saudi Derby on Sat, Feb 24 is 9:00am ET. (1 mile)
Post time for the Saudi Cup is 12:40pm ET. (1 1/8m and one turn configuration)
On FS2 in the U.S.
Very helpful, thank you Shelly!!
LIKELY JAPANESE IVADERS:
Should the #18th and #19th ranked Japan base KD prospects make the cut and show up. Their American based opponents will be subjected to what can be viewed as a reverse pedigree assault on the race. How so?
FOREVER YOUNG –
Sire ——————– Deep Steel – Deep Impact – Sunday Silence- Halo- Turn TO
Dam Forever Darling – Congrats – A P Indy – Seattle Slew
RAMJET –
Sire ——————– Majestic Warrior-A P Indy- Seattle Slew
Dam Nefertiti———–Gold Allure – Sunday Silence, Halo -Turn To
The AP Indy/Sunday Silence cross is in reverse above. There is no KD history regarding this cross. Which is likely to prove successful? How can anyone attempt answering such a question. Well, I am certified crazy, so I will give it a shot.
Sunday Silence was a son of Halo and Halo goes back to Turn To via his sire Hail To reason. Though separated by either 2 or 3 generations, Turn To is featured in the dam line of 4 KD winners, based on the last 30 years of KD history that I track. See Below:
CHARISMATIC –
Dam – Bali Babe -Drone -Sir Gaylord – Turn To
GRINDSTONE
Dam-Buzz My Bell -Drone -Sir Gaylord – Turn To
GIACOMO-
Dam – Set Them Free – Stop The Music – Hail To Reason- Turn To
I’ll HAVE ANOTHER
Dam – Arch’s Gal Edith- Arch – Roberto – Hail To Reason- Turn To
Four KD winner producing dams trace back to Turn To.
A P Indy was a Seattle Slew stallion. The Seattle Slew dam line has only enjoyed very modest success in the KD. See below:
FUNNY CIDE
Dam- Bell’s Good Cide- Slewaside – Seattle Slew
SUPER SAVER
Dam- Supercharger – A P Indy – Seattle Slew.
Based on the above, I am of the opinion Ramjet will recorder the btter finish of the two.
Apologies if this was discussed already, but I found an interesting anecdote to share about Sierra Leone, Forever Young & Northern Flame (the first crop Flameaway colt who races in the Rebel this weekend). All are related. From Sid Fernando of Sire Watch: “Each is out of a half-sister to the others. In fact, the three sisters are closely related on the sire line as well, as they are by the A.P. Indy stallions Malibu Moon (Heavenly Love, the dam of Sierra Leone), Congrats (Forever Darling, the dam of Forever Young), and Bernardini (Darling’s Darling, the dam of Northern Flame). Each of these mares was bred by Debby Oxley from the Deputy Minister mare Darling My Darling, a listed stakes winner who was multiple Grade 1-placed and is a daughter of Grade 1 winner Roamin Rachel… The common demoninator is… the Debbie Oxley family.”
Thanks for this, Shelly. Debbie Oxley is one smart cookie!
I recognized the pedigree association between Sierra Leone and Forever Young and had planned to highlight it in a post as a possible exacta play should both make the race.
Sierra Leone –
Dam – Heavenly Love – Malibu Moon out of Darling My Darling by Deputy Minister
Foreve Young –
Dam – Forever Darling – Congrats out of Darling My Darling by Deputy Minister
Two daughters of Darling My Darling have produced what appears to be 2 live KD contenders.
No one with straight face can state that Steve Haskin’s sense of humor isn’t comparable to his exceptional writing skills. See below:
“Pick your poison – Nysos, Muth, Maymun, Imagination, Coach Prime, Wine Me Up. Any of them can be seen soon at a racetrack near you. So, get your tickets now – outta town. (This was a public service announcement to all horsemen who would rather not face the aforementioned white-haired trainer where Derby points are a premium)”
What is joke to you is death to me! Translation:
Everyone does not have the same sense of humor; you might offend someone with your jokes.
Should anyone take offense to Steve’s humorous comment above, which frankly, contains a verifiable element of seriousness? It depends on the perspective from which the comments are viewed. How so?
Coach Prime ($0.80) and Wine Me Up ($1.890) were defeated in the Los Al Futurity by Wynstock. The Solomini colt was BB’s first shipper out of CA to contest a KD prep.
He left the gates of the Southwest as the 4th choice in the wagering. He raced forwardly and quickly engaged reverse and plummeted to the back of the field to finish last by 28 1/4L. I haven’t any reports that Wynstock experienced an in-race issue that led to his poor performance. The muddy/sealed surface was not highlighted as a factor.
If the Los Al Futurity winner was so badly beaten in the SW. Why should there be fear for the presence of Coach Prime and Wine Me Up?
Nysos, Muth, Maymun and Imagination should be more intimidating animals based on their respective PPs. But history shouldn’t be ignored based purely on repeated success of talented BB shippers.
In 2019 Game Winner left CA to contest the Rebel as an undefeated Champion 2YO in 4 starts that included three G1 stakes. Improbable likewise left CA undefeated in 4 starts including a G1 win.
Game Winner had 10 opponents and was returning $0.50 on the dollar. He ran into Omaha Beach in a mean mode and unrelenting on the lead. He had to settle for 2nd.
Improbable had 7 opponents and was returning $0.40 on the dollar. He ran into Long Range Toddy whose late challenge he was unable to repel. He likewise had to settle for 2nd.
The fact that a combined 15 opponents showed up to compete Game Winner and Improbable, suggested there was neither fear of nor for, the two undefeated G1 winners from the barn of Bob Baffert. On any given race a short price favorite can find one better.
Finally, similar invincibility sentiment existed regarding one Uncle Mo. It was suggested that other trainers’ best option was to roll out of town when the vaunted Uncle Mo rolled in. Whilst retaining $0.10 on the dollar in the Wood memorial, Uncle MO was only able to finish 3rd in his first real race as a 3YO.
What is the moral of the two stories above?
Horses are not afraid of their fellow equines.
There is always likely to be an Onion for every Secretariate.
Great update Steve and thank you. I liked the reference to Curlin’s Jockey Club Gold Cup win. I’ve watched that replay several times. Some may forget the exceptional form of Lawyer Ron coming into that race having swept the Whitney and the Woodward and setting the Spa record for 9F with a time of 1:46.64. For Curlin to go against older at 10F and nail Lawyer Ron at the wire…it was something to see. I’ve always held that this was Curlin’s best race…even better than the Breeders Cup. I latched onto Curlin, like many, after his maiden explosion at Gulfstream Park. For those who haven’t witnessed the race- please do- it’s eye catching. Curlin is having such a refreshing impact on the breed – throwing off classic distance runners in this age of breed for speed. His progeny are also durable..he recently had two sons in a race at Tampa that were 8 and 12 yrs old! The 12 yr old, Bam Bam Blu was coming off a win! To also own the Sprint champion and BC Dirt Mile winner….very impressive. Overall, I find it difficult for an American thoroughbred to match Curlin’s combined track (2x HOY) and sire record over the past 50 years.
Hey Matthew Rosato
You make excellent points regarding Curlin’s legacy. What I find amazing is that he still commands a stud fee of $250K, at 20 years of age.
Curlin: “The Only Sire in History to Sire 3 BC Champions on the same day and have Progeny win 4 Individual Eclipse Awards”.
I have six horses on my Derby Watch list that have Curlin as the sire or grand sire. They are as follows.
Otello: Sire, Curlin
Dornoch: Grand Sire, Curlin
Tuscan Sky: Grand Sire, Curlin
The Wine Steward: Grand Sire, Curlin
Ari’s Magic: Grand Sire, Curlin
Magic Grant: Grand Sire, Curlin
At this stage on the Derby trail, I would think Dornoch and Tuscan Sky are the top Derby prospects from the Curlin line.
Even though Otello finished a disappointing 6th in the Holy Bull, I haven’t given up on him moving forward on the Derby trail. Curlin’s have a reputation as “late developers”.
Thanks Matthew, and good luck.
Meisho Hario is the Japan entrant that is getting overlooked! In the Saudi Cup, that is, a classy guy himself but this is the best race! America came strong! Japan did too! I love the 12-1 on Saudi Crown, a horse I liked from his first start—intend to use Meisho Hario with him! They put up the big money and The Saudi Cup has been a pretty solid race! This year DELIVERS..
Meisho Hario scratched. Will be replaced by Scotland Yard.
OK, Steve, we won’t mention the name of a certain white-haired trainer. But do you have any sense, at this early stage, of which of the “Bob Mob” would be pointed to the Preakness and which might need a little more time and/or prefer the (only slightly this year) longer distance of the Belmont? Maymun sure didn’t look like he would relish 1 1/4 miles.
You can mention him Amy.as long as its not good vs. evil. I’m just making fun of the whole situation/ You never know what Bob is going to do. It all depends on what his horses do in the next couple of months. Obviously Nysos will be his big horse followed by Muth, but who knows how Maymun and the others wll improve
Steve, do you think Bob Baffert would like to wear Top Hat and Tails at Royal Ascot? Maymun has a turfy pedigree and that speed could be deadly there.
I see where Colorado has passed a law legalizing fixed odds for horse racing. I wish more tracks would offer fixed odds. I hope other states follow suit. Nothing worse than betting a 4-1 horse who drops to 4-5 after the gates open.
As Craig Milkowski put it so terrifically on Twitter following last weekend’s Rachel Alexandra Stakes: “6/1 loading, 5/2 across the wire. The only gambling game in the world when you get mad when you win.”
Nice addition this week, Steve.
I love the description of Sierra Leone’s race. Visually impressive. Is exactly how I described it.
Waiting for a dry fast track for a few of them.
Love to see how Forever Young races in Saudi.
I also loved your synopsis of He Who should remain Nameless and his brigade of nice horses.
I look forward to next weeks, Derby Dozen!
It is the turn of the Japanese cousin of Sierra Leone to be under the spotlight this Saturday in the Saudi Derby.
Forever Young is undefeated in 3 starts with his last win being the most noteworthy; as Steve described Forever Young displayed a demolishing late dash to win the mile of the (December 13th) Zennippon Nisai Yushun by a mounting 7 lengths.
Forever Young’s two previous wins at 1 1/8 mile on dirt were also remarkable. He is the type who always looks to be an imposing presence stalking the leaders before exploding in the homestretch and overwhelm his rivals… he’s run his last 200 meters in about 12 seconds in all his races.
The brave Derma Sotogake also took the 20 Derby points of the Zennippon Nisai Yushun back in 2022, but if you ask me, I would say that Forever Young was more striking in that 2-year-old Stakes at the super heavy Kawasaki racecourse.
Forever Young is the international 2-to-1 favorite to win the Saudi Derby which would be an excellent springboard to the UAE Derby…from there, I hope to see this powerful Japanese runner competing in the Kentucky Derby against his more heralded cousin Sierra Leone … that would be a refreshing story; and who knows if this year could be the one for “the land of the rising sun” to finally take the Roses … after all, could be easier now that the best of the West won’t be there the first Saturday of May.
I for one a fan of the international entry for the triple crown races. It spices things up a bit. Forever Young and Sierra Leone in the derby? Now that would be really interesting. Good luck to Forever Young on his bid to the derby. Rooting for him and Derma.
I hope that Derma Sotogake’s injured eye during the flight heals totally by Saturday and won’t affect him in the Saudi Cup… his connections say that he looks good galloping … it is good thing that the kickback in that track is rather soft…
And his outside draw can help keep kickback away from his eye….
Thanks, Nelson for pointing this out. I can’t believe I just now realized Sierra and Forever Young are so closely related. They have the same second dam, Darling My Darling. Each is out of a graded stakes winning mare — Sierra Leone from Grade 1 Alcibiades Stakes winner Heavenly Love, and Forever Young a son of Grade 2 (Santa Ynez S.) winner Forever Darling. Darling My Darling is a stakes-winning half to Japanese champion and HOY Zenno Rob Roy. That’s quite a genetic eddy.
Yes Ms Blacktype … I thought you had read one of my replies to Dewey Hebert when inquired about Forever Young whereabouts last week…
I have not checked but it appears that there is rare to have Derby contenders sharing the second dam.
It is more frequent to see more or two Derby entrants foaled by one given Sire (specially the leading sires with more than 150 foals per crop) … but, even for Derby winners with the same family their female lines tend to be different over 5 generations…
Ms Blacktype there is another cousin of Sierra Leone and Forever Young vying for Derby points this year… amazingly Northern Flame’s second dam also is Darling My Darling …
All their damsires are coincidentially by A.P. Indy (Malibu Moon, Congrats and Bernardini)… a fun fact for the books!
Another amazing coincidence . . . or maybe not. Superior runners tend to come in clumps in pedigrees.
Nelson and Ms Blacktype, you should follow the mating plans of Coolmore Stud’s broodmares. Impeccable bloodlines along with incredible racing performance being bred to the top stallions in the world. Juddmonte is very similar.
On the flip side, the Aga Khan’s breeding program is perhaps more intriguing, often an ancient family is resurrected from a deliberate mating to produce a star performer. Niarchos family breeding is fascinating as well, among many of course.
Good suggestion. Yet another way to bury my head in research!
True, but the result is pure pleasure and like a jigsaw the whole world of thoroughbred breeding completes a map. You never stop learning though, which makes it even better.
Can someone shed some like on the part-ownership inclusions for Honor Marie. Originially, she was owned by Legion Racing and then was under Ribble Farms when he won the KJC Stakes in Nov. Now the ownership is Ribble Farms, Michael H. Eiserman, Earl I. Silver, Kenneth E. & Daniel Fishbein?
I will ask.
I just finished watching the video replay of Deterministic’s maiden win, going 7 furlongs in 1:24.18. His street fighter demeanor was on full display in the final stages of the stretch run. Following that maiden win, back in August, Christophe Clement had him on the shelf for five months before he returned to his training regime on January 13th. His last four works have been bullets, at PPTC. It may be too late to see him on the Derby trail, but Clement might have plans to enter him in an allowance race in the near future. If he performs well, then a Derby prep stakes race could follow. I have more than a passing interest in Deterministic, he’s one of the twelve bombers that I placed $40.00 win wagers on in Futures Pool 3.
I’ve got him at 99-1.
Interesting colt that is on my watch list
Thanks Steve! Lookin for a needle in a haystack.
My heartfelt thanks this’d EVERY week for your words of wisdom. You truly have forgotten more about horse racing than most of us will ever know! Very interested in AGATE roads Thoro Graph pattern if you would print that sometime. Also infatuated with Alotaluck out of the Sunland Derby. Am really interested to see if he POSSIBLY could move forward into another Derby prep.
I know that’s a stretch. He races green and wide but doesn’t like to give up! Could you supply his TG numbers also when they’re available? Respectfully, JB
Thanks John, Agate Road actually has a promising Thoro-Graph pattern — 14..14..13…10 3/4…10 3/4…then a 5 on dirt. Alotaluck’s figures are impoving, but his pedigree is so offbeat I have to analyze that more. There is a ton of stamina if that helps. Stay tuned
I thought Alotaluck’s rider showed alotaindecision. He’d range alongside, then pull back. Did it three times. The horse ran batter than it looked.
Sometimes I question whether I am too guided by history. But I consider history to be more than a path left by the past.
A Body of Work is a historic reference. It can be used in a defining way. Steve Hankin is a brilliant writer, and his body of work defines him. Excellence is the expectation form the award-winning writer because as that’s what his body of work reflects.
I have compiled various records for two of the most controversial thoroughbred trainers in America i.e., Bob Beffert and Todd Pletcher. It could be stated that I have complied their BOW as it relates to the KD in particular and the TC in general.
In the modern era Bob Baffert dominates the KD/Preakness (7 & 8 wins) and Todd Pletcher dominates the Belmont (4 wins). Given both trainers BOW, expectations in the 3 TC races varies widely.
If BB was not serving an extension to his 2 years ban. Some of his KD prospects would be in the top 5 and definitely in the top 10. Many might not be aware or do not recall that BB not only won the KD 7 times but was also represented by the post time favorite on 9 occasions. See Below:
2019 -Improbable – 5th
2018 – Justify -1st
2015 – American Pharoah – 1st
2012 – Bodemeister – 2nd
2010 – Lookin AT Lucky – 6th
2009 -Pioneerof the Nile -2nd
2001 – Point Given -5th
1999 – Excellent Meeting – 5th
1998 – Indian Charlie – 4th
Yes folks! Seven out of BB’s 9 post time favorite were defeated. only his two TC winners prevailed as post time favorites by not overwhelming margins – 1L & 2 1/2L.
In the absence of Bob Baffert, the default KD trainer appears to be Todd Pletcher. How so?
TP’s BOW for the KD is modest at best and abysmal at worst. He has been represented by 64 KD staters and with 2-win, 8 additional top 4 finishes and 54 off the board finishes. Do experience analyst expect different results from TP’s KD entrants in 2024? The only things that is different are the players. But the playbook/program that has yielded the aformentioned underwhelming results, remains the same.
Why wasn’t Brad Cox the default KD trainer over TP. In the last 3 years Cox has the significantly better head-to-head record in the KD. Further, his Timberlake defeated the previously #1 ranked Fierceness by 20L in the Champagne.
If anyone thinks there was anything normal regarding Fierceness’ performance in the BCJ. I have a small bridge I would like to sell. Locked took forever and a day to arrive at ground long vacated by the two ahead. He appeared extremely tired in the gallop out and that was understandable as he was hard ridden a long way from the line.
Neither Locked nor Fierceness should be considered serious KD contenders. Why? Their trainer’s BOW speaks for itself. I was correct in my determination that Fierceness was a bet against in the Holy Bull. Neither colt is as good as advertised. I have every confidence I will be proven correct again.
The unwarranted confidence in TP’s KD program seem to know no bounds and apparently lesson have not been learnt. As stated previously I keep receipts on BB and TP. I submit the following receipt reflecting the inexplicable support for TP’s KD horses.’
After managing only 5th in the G3 Sam Davis. Known Agenda was dropped from the graded stakes level to the Allowance Optional Claim level to win his first race as a 3YO. He followed up with a win in the FL Derby. His best opponent on the day was fellow last out AOC winner Soup and Sandwich. Known Agenda was widely viewed as a live KD contender of his FL Derby win. Say What!
Do you meant the same colt that couldn’t win the G3 Sam Davis and then won an AOC with Lasix added by 12L. yes!
Was it the same colt that Soup and Sandwich chased the line in the FL Deby without changing leads? Yes!
The Curlin colt was made the 4th choice in the KD wagering and finished 9th. Soup and Sandwich finished last. A 4th place finish by 13L in the Belmont sent him into retirement.
Todd Pletcher doesn’t train and condition horses. He trains and condition victims. Those who think my assertion is extreme. Check out the careers of Danza, Always Dreaming and Pluck after their respective exposive wins.
A lot of space and words to express your displeasure with Todd Pletcher.
Give it a rest Counter Point.
I may address Pletcher and his Derby record next week, along with Baffert and his Derby record. I have my theories about both that may or may not explain certain things. But I do have to admit I’ve gotten suckered into too many Pletcher horses. Lol. Many of them werent at their best until the following year like Vino Rosso who I had ranked No. 1 over Justify, who with 3 lifetime starts and no starts at 2 was bucking history big-time. Sometimes history wins and sometimes it doesnt.
My theories for Bob are: Deep pockets (owners)…..hard works (his program)….and good weather (fewer distractions)…..
We’re pretty much on the same page and history will show why.
Well known facts – Pletcher has a larger barn than most, is spread out all over the place and has serious turf horses in addition to dirt. He hasn’t had many sprinters.
He seems to epitomize the gentleman’s ‘C’ in terms of results and he must be fine with that, considering his horses get good breeding deals and he is well to do as a result. He has many a deep pocketed owner also and had a My Racehorse gig recently where he dashed the dreams of one excited young group owner when the first time entrant finished fourth.
Gentleman’s C means something different now, I was using the old meaning:
A C was the grade a gentleman aspired to, so as not to seem too interested in studies and be considered a grind.
Gosh Steve …we do think alike about horses …..your favorite all-time tv show isn’t by any chance the year and a half run (1963-64) on “Outer Limits”, is it? It’s mine. .
Do agree Counter Point’s rants on a particular pair of trainers can be a bit excessive on occasion, but at the same time, you can’t say the person doesn’t do his research. Whether those conclusions are always entirely accurate is another matter. Nevertheless, it’s good (and sometimes fun) to read differing viewpoints (IMO).
Pity a few are cast into exile from other sites for expressing an opinion,yet certain ‘clicks’ are rewarded with
carte blanche for raising chaos daily.
You said it, Mike. Spot on.
I didn’t fit in with the ‘click’ that dominates a certain site and was exiled. No big loss. 🙂
Thanks Bill! Amazing couple Individuals deploying tons of names without consequence.
Excellent Meeting was a big filly, part of an entry in the 1999 Derby….her stablemate General Challenge was the reason for the low odds, General Challenge was a big chestnut who was an “in and outer”, he sometimes ran huge—and other times not at all….
That’s right Matthew, both General Challenge and Excellent Meeting were products of Golden Eagle Farm breeding. The Mabees were wonderful Californian breeders.
And to think….their best bred horse was considered a throwaway breeding…John Maybee said they had no expectations, and Best Pal ended up winning million dollar races four years in a row .. .
Matthew, Golden Eagle achieved remarkable heights with a limited broodmare band. General Meeting was a fantastic sire.
History is rife with theories as to why TP does not win the KD more often. History is also rife with theories as to why BB has won so many KDs.
Having said that….a couple of weeks ago, Steve and the admin. made it very clear to keep the topics about the horses and no so much about BB and his exploits. After all, his horses are NOT eligible for the big dance. The question remains, why is there any mention of him in Steve’s article, even if his horses will steal points from others that might be eligible for the KD?
He isnt mentioned
“briefly mention the ever-growing Bob mob” “Pac-Man Bob”….this must be another Bob that trains the above mentioned horses.
How dare he slap slap…..
Hypocrisy at its best.
Anyone know how big Mystik Dan is? He looks on a smallish side. I am concern about his lung infection. Hopefully that has no ill effect on him after recovery. He looks like a good one with a motor. Beautiful stride as well.
After his race in the Southwest I dont think you have to worry about a lung infection three races ago.
That’s what I like to hear!! I’m excited for his next race for sure.
I thought that Antiquarian ran just as good as #7 Track Phantom, and I think in the Louisiana Derby he could be a potential winner with what I think will be his improvement with distance, while I don’t feel Track Phantom will get better with distance.
I’m waiting to get background on him from his breeder who I am a big fan of. I wanted to give him more space and not get lost, so once I hear back he wil be discussed next week.
I thought Cornishman was more impressive in that race. Only 2nd start. Well-bred. 4-5 wide both turns and only lost by ~ 1 length. Still has to break his maiden but could see him making his mark on some late Spring 3 year old races like the Peter Pan.
Gotta give some love for Track Phantom. The derby has been good to front runners. Love TPs speed and how easy he makes it look getting to the front and sustain that all the way to the last stretch run. Perhaps with all battles and works, TP may be a lot stronger in the derby and take it. He is the type of derby horse that would at least get a piece of superfecta.
Nice looking colt and he has a nice solid stride.
Only question I have about Tuscan Sky is why he doesn’t run without Lasix.
They all run with lasix, if allowed ….maybe 1% would run without it, given the choice……a bad bleed could and does ruin a horse, if you’ve ever been around a bad bleed you would understand, all horses bleed SOME….lasix was never meant to be a “performance enhancer”.
I wonder why Mystik Dan doesn’t get anybody excited, did he run too well? Surely he has run better this year than all of the other three year olds besides Nysos…..and he also sprinted a high number….
Matthew:
Agree 100%
He is 60-1 at Circa currently; a huge overlay in my opinion.
…and there were legit excuses for the two poor races, according to his trainer ….drawn way outside and off two poor performances he took action, and rewarded backers with an impressive win….. he’s one of the top contenders, in my opinion….
With Sierra Leone it’s ‘ABD he did it on an off track!”….with Mystic Dan it’s ‘”well I don’t know, he did it on an off track”—-whats the difference? Mystic Dan won by eight is the difference…
After the Rankings were posted I made up my mind he will be moving way up next week as the Risen Star wears off. Possibly as high as No. 2 or 3. I kept him at No. 8 when he still hadnt worked since the Southwest, but after I finally heard from Kenny I forgot to move him up. He just looks much faster than the others and when you have so many horses ranked coming out of one race you have to question the race. A lot of the experts are holding off because they feel it was a rail-biased track and also he is by Goldencents who has never sired a distance horse. It may have been biased but that means little to me and I love his female family. This was not about a rail bias when you win like that. I just hate when there is so much time between races, but as I have mentioned he probably needs it. Hold tight until next week.
Steve I appreciate your timely reply—you are a “Timely Writer”, that is “Fairly Certain”, (to include a couple of good horses from the past)…Oaklawn when it rains is often better down inside, because when they roll down the surface they start with the inside—when it’s POURING DOWN that can really make the inside faster, simply because they got it rolled first—that said, he still had to sit and wait for an opening, and he really did that well….I looked at his pps, after the race, and thought his 10-1 price was indicative of strong support, because he SHOULD have been 30-1…..
I just hope we dont get another sloppy track for the Arkansas Derby. Seems like we get one every Saturday when there is a 3-year-old stakes
And I also love the Colonel John on the dam side! Colonel John was my play in the Zenyatta Classic, which had a strong field—Colonel John was a beautiful colt, and not as enormous as Tiznow—Goldencents was a miler, that’s true—he had a brilliant turn of foot, somewhat forgotten, but as of right now Mystik Dan figures strong in my rankings…
Hi Steve – I know you are a big fan of Liberal Arts and so am I. He is my 46-1 KDFW2 bet. Mystic Dan did run big in the SW, but the rail that day was Golden and his jockey had MD save all of that ground. I am concerned about being by Goldencents who was not a 1 1/4 horse. Watching the SW Steve, Liberal Arts jockey C.Torres tried to get LA to the rail but MD beat him to the spot. You have to wonder if the race outcome would have been different if LA hugged the rail and beat MD to that spot. Torres swung LA wide in the stretch to make his run while MD was exploding thru the rail spot and was gone. Looking forward to LA running in the ARK Derby and am confident that at 1 1/8 he has a chance to turn the tables on MD. LA galloped out past the winner and looks like he will enjoy the added ground of the KY Derby as well as the 1 1/4 of the KY Derby if he qualifies. Like you said Steve, as long as LA keeps improving race to race, he just might peak as a winable contender in the KY Derby.
Hi Matthew
On 2-19, I posted my top 15 horses, (in preferential order), I have Mystik Dan at #5. His impressive performance in the Southwest Stakes got my attention, big time. His Equibase Speed Figure and Beyer Number were close to what Fierceness earned in the BC Juv.
Equibase Speed: 110, (Fierceness, 113)
Beyer: 101, (Fierceness, 105)
His pedigree reflects an excellent mix of speed, stamina and class. The fact that he’s a Gasaway homebred adds to his appeal, IMO.
Steve:
I want to let you know that this Derby season, your comprehensive weekly columns are more important and helpful to me than usual. Not to be a downer, but I am going through some issues currently where focus and concentration are particularly challenging for me. Having your columns to read and, re-read have been helping me, so thank you! As I am retired now, my discretionary income is a bit lower than last year, so I probably will not have $1,300 deployed like last year. However, I will still have a good amount and your insights help a lot, as do the commentators here
Here is what I have so far at William Hill and Circa:
1. Mystik Dan can win $4,950
2. Liberal Arts $3,625
3. Catching Freedom $3,250
4. Uncle Heavy $1,875
5. Speak Easy $1,875…don’t usually back Pletcher horses, but odds were high
6.Resilience $900…need to add more; can still get 45-1 at Circa
7. Honor Marie $1,000
Very much looking forward to the balance of prep races and future columns.
Thanks!
Forgot to put my user name!
Thank you so much Jeffrey. I hope things start looking brighter for you. I am happy the Rankings help. Best of luck with your bets. I will be focusing more on Uncle Heavy next week. I really like all your bets.
Steve: This is the time of year when the Derby picture starts to coalesce. At the same time, it’s scary to think the trainers/owners of some of the most promising horses are already talking about last preps. It’s only Feb. 21, for crying out loud.
I like the way you frame the discussion of each horse with both cold figures and observations of pure horsy behavior, from the flicking of ears to the way a horse strides out.
And your Pac-Man riff was priceless!
I really appreciate your second graph because thats what makes this fun for me to do, combining facts, observations, anecdotes, history, and pedigree analysis. Its nice to know that is appreciated. And thanks for the Pac-Man comment. Usually when I try to put humor in it and make it light it goes unnoticed. So thanks again.
You put it altogether in a way that the rest of us can only dream of!
It takes a lot of time and effort, but I love doing it. I love discovering new horses and new facts and putting it all together. That’s why after Thursday you rarely see me on here.
Will be so interesting to see the Thoro-Graph for Track Phantom in the Risen Star.
I’m waiting for all the numbers
The best horse I have seen(that is Derby eligible) is Tuscan Sky. He did defy the odds to win a match race against a good speed horse and his Beyer came back better than Sierra Leone’s. And 6 to 8.5 furlongs, one turn to two turns, isn’t an easy ask. Takes a talented horse to do that.
So he has zero points and needs a first or second in a Hundred-Pointer to get in. So will a lot of these. With a win already at Aqueduct, I think we’ll see him in the Wood.
What goes unnoticed is that this horse has never run on a fast track. So that just adds to the mystique. Agree about the Wood.
My one question mark is that Nash loves to get beaten.
Steve, this is what makes certain handicapping fun and one can get a better odd than what it should have been.
Talking about off tracks. These days the off tracks are not the same. I mean a sealed track is way different from the old muddy/slop.
We know that Secretariat and Wajima (both great son’s of Bold Ruler) fell to superior mud runners. There used to be a list of superior mud and slop runners. Do you know if anyone has made up a list of superior sealed track runners?
BTW, Long ago I had read somewhere (cannot find it since) that a 6F race was run in a time of around 1:36. Do you recall that?
Should have added: that 6F race was run on a knee deep slop
They were tamping down wet tracks way back in the 70s ….The 1973 race where Secretariat and Cougar were both beat—is the 2nd fastest 12 furlongs race ever run at Belmont, and General Assembly ran off the charts in the 1979 Travers—those were rolled surfaces….
But the 1975 Travers was run in the deepest slop I have ever seen…..
I don’t know about sealed track ratings, BUT—Speed DOMINATES, over sealed wet surfaces, and it looks like most horses handle it …
Wasn’t born yesterday, almost every true handicapper knows that even if they were not born then.
Steve,
Thanks for your insight with this week’s rankings. I was impressed by Sierra Leone’s romp thru the slop and eagerly wait his eventual confrontation with the west coast contingent.
Steve, your move to Connecticut has certainly be advantageous. Every week your Derby Rankings are so insightful with in-depth knowledge on a raft of runners and such a pleasure to read. I can’t remember the last time I’ve had a differing opinion on any colt.
I thought Catching Freedom was a little unlucky not to be closer but doubt he would have threatened the winner. Nonetheless, Catching Freedom did appear to be squeezed between the winner and runner up but in US racing that’s forgiven quite a bit. Pity the Risen Star Stakes was on a wet track you’re never quite sure you’re seeing everything or nothing at all. That’s the excuse for Honor Marie. Ha ha
Agree, Speak Easy could be a very good colt and Born Noble deserves another chance while Frontline could surprise later down the track. If Ramjet can repeat that dose again the Japanese could have a real contender for the roses. Track Phantom looks to me to be a real danger, if the track was dry he probably wins the Risen Star but that’s pure conjecture, still he warmed the heart with the performance.
It’s a funny year, at this early stage the best colt so far, who is eligible to run in the Derby, might be best on a wet track. Lots to consider. Thanks Steve.
I appeicate the kind words David, thank you. There are a lot of talented hoses still bubbling under the surface. We could see some changes in the next few weeks
Yes Steve, I agree with you. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see a field a very inexperienced colts running for the roses. Bob Baffert and Todd Pletcher have lead the way that 2 year old experience isn’t that essential anymore to win the Derby. Unfortunately, it’s not particularly good for the fans, the industry, and especially the colts as they never last.
My Derby horse right now is Sierra Leone. Read an Alan Porter column on his pedigree and holy smokes was that impressive.
Off topic, Echo Zulu was euthanized earlier this week. She apparently cast in her stall and broke a different leg from the one she injured in mid October. What a champ she was. Run free in the Heavenly pastures, baby girl.
Thanks Steve, another great analysis on your top horses on the Derby trail.
Yesterday, 2-19, I posted my top 15 and with the exception of Liberal Arts and Honor Marie, our top 15 are the same.
My preferential order is somewhat different, but not by much. It’s good to see you have not given up on Fierceness, I haven’t either.
As it stands now, Sierra Leone appears to be the real deal moving forward on the Derby trail. It’s good to see you have him at the top of your Derby Rankings – Week 5.
BTW, I liked what you had to say about Resilience, I for one did not “overlook” him in the Risen Star. I keyed him and Sierra Leone on top, in the first two slots, with six horses underneath in the 4th and 5th slots, in my superfecta p/w wager.
Coming down the stretch, I thought he just might steal it at big odds, (17-1), but as you mentioned, he gave way.
I thought so much of Resilience early on, I placed a $40.00 win wager on him in Derby Futures Pool 3, at 93-1. In addition, I keyed him on top, with eleven horses underneath in a $2.00 exacta p/w wager. Needless to say, I have high hopes for Resilience moving forward.
Many thanks Steve, we all appreciate your Derby Rankings, week after week.
Thanks Bill. I like your Future wager bet on Resilience. I thought he ran great coming off the maiden race and on that tack. I see him moving way foward off this
As a fan of Fierceness, I have no problem seeing Sierra Leone at the top of the list. I was impressed by the Remsen and at that point I made Sierra Leone and Dornoch my second and third choices. I believe the good Fierceness would easily beat both of them, but we never know when we’ll see the good Fierceness, and Sierra Leone has distinguished himself a lot more as a three-year-old. The only consistent thing about Fierceness is that he alternates his good and bad performances: maiden race–good, Champagne–bad, Breeders Cup Juvenile–good, Holy Bull–bad. If he continues that pattern and if he has only one race between now and May, it will be Florida Derby–good, Kentucky Derby–bad. But maybe he’ll choose not to be consistent about that either. We can only hope.
Glad to see Dimatic mentioned first at the KotD section…
I picture Dimatic running big in the Rebel. His maiden win in the Southwest undercard was very telling.
Dimatic tracked a hot pace over the sealed slop and drew clear in the homestretch … then something spooked him two furlongs before the finish line making him to veer out sharply. Rosario managed to keep him going to still finish strongly.
Had he run straight at the end he would have run a whole second faster than the 1:46 for the 1 1/16 mile …
Dimatic might not be as classy as Timberlake is right now but we should not be surprised if he ends up being the best of Asmussen horses in the Rebel…
For Steve to put him in the Rebel instead of the allowace should tell us a lot
Hi Steve, Great round-up per usual. I’m taking another stab at Common Defense bouncing back in the Rebel and getting into the Tri at a big price. I’m theorizing that the slop, off Lasix, and first time vs winners are reasonable enough excuses to envision a bounce back effort at a big price. Anyway, I was just wondering if by chance you’ve spoken with Kenny recently about his Derby Trail horses? If so, do you have any morsels of info to share about Common Defense?
Keep the faith!
I’ll check with Kenny about him today. Keep watching.
Steve Haskin-
Thanks for the Week 5 update on Epic Ride. Evidently, colt is attempting to join Derby Trail via synthetic surface route.
Pedigree-wise he has a touch of brilliance in third generation through Speightstown, which I usually stay away from for
classic distance. But, he also has multiple solid, classic sire influences in fourth and fifth generations to balance the equation. Will be interesting to see how far he can go with J. Battaglia and Jeff Ruby races coming up in March.
Not a large bettor, but I have him in KD Future Wager Pool 4 at 105-1. Thank you for the Rankings Week 5. Always insightful and an interesting read.
7.5 Furlongs
His speed figs ae slow but watch out forr those Turfway horses. Maybe Snead as well. But Epic Ride is a good horse, still a bit green.