Kentucky Derby Rankings – Week 6
With a big weekend coming up and an uninspiring Rebel Stakes field won by the heavily favored Timberlake on Saturday, some of the comments this week and part of Knocking on the Door will be of a more personal nature, as I will be focus more on observations and whatever thoughts, off-the-wall or not, pop into my head. ~ Steve Haskin
Derby Rankings: February 26, 2024 – Week 6
By Steve Haskin
1—Sierra Leone (Chad Brown, Gun Runner – Heavenly Love, by Malibu Moon)
Sloppy surfaces, plodding paces, feeble fields, and one surmounted superstar. Needless to say it has been a kooky and in many ways frustrating Derby trail so far. Then this guy came along to add some sense of normalcy and hope, even though he has yet to compete on a fast track in stakes company. This week we noticed something that fit right in with the oddities we have seen so far this year. I cannot recall a horse becoming the Kentucky Derby favorite after a victory in which he regressed in his Thoro-Graph numbers. Yes, Sierra Leone went from a 4 ¾ in the Remsen Stakes to a 5 ½ in the Risen Star Stakes, which is a number you don’t expect to see from a Derby favorite heading into March. Even his Beyer figure regressed. Now before you start selling your Sierra Leone future book tickets, I only bring that up to demonstrate what a bizarre year this has been. Every speed figure that came out of the Risen Star cannot be taken too seriously because of the changing nature of the much-used waterlogged surface as that long day of racing turned into night. There was no way after that crawling pace this race was going to get a fast speed figure. The fact that he overcame that pace with a :34 2/5 final three-eighths, including a sensational :12 flat final eighth on that horrible track shows you the powerful closing kick and determination this colt has. So in short, forget the speed figures and watch for a huge leap forward in the Blue Grass Stakes
2— Timberlake (Brad Cox, Into Mischief – Pin Up, by Lookin At Lucky)
We’ll move him up to No. 2 until we see how Locked fares against Dornoch and several other promising colts in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, or how Dornoch fares against Locked. Although the Rebel was not a strong field, take nothing away from Timberlake’s performance, even though he still has some issues he needs to work on. Most important, however, is that he returned to the form of the Champagne Stakes and did it the right way, rating beautifully behind the leaders while between horses, moving smoothly on the outside and then fanning five wide turning for home. He was late changing leads and shied badly from a left-handed whip and then ducked in from a right-handed whip, but once he straightened out and leveled off he came home his final sixteenth in :06 1/5, while being pushed to the wire to win by two lengths over a strong Common Sense, who got a dream trip up the rail. He has had enough experience in top-class company to not react so strongly to the crop the way he did, and you don’t want him staying on his left lead that long. But this was his first start in almost four months and he should work out the kinks in the Arkansas Derby. His 93 Beyer figure was just decent, but was the same figure he got in his previous two races, so if you follow the Beyers he hasn’t improved at all since the Champagne. What was most important, however, is that he got the job done and this was a good first step back. I also moved him up to No. 2 because I’m still a sucker for the Champagne.
3—Fierceness (Todd Pletcher, City of Light – Nonna Bella, by Stay Thirsty)
He finally returned to the work tab with a half-mile drill in :48 2/5 in company with Agate Road. It has reached a stage with this colt that I no longer care how he works and I’m not so sure that a rebound victory in the Florida Derby will inspire as much confidence as it should. Pletcher has decided that two races are enough to get him to the Derby. But from a personal standpoint I sure would have liked to see him follow the Forte schedule of three preps in order to expose him to as much potential adversity as possible and allow him to overcome it before the Derby. Otherwise, with his pattern of alternating brilliant victories with poor or mediocre performances depending on how the race suits him he can run another spectacular race in the Florida Derby and we still won’t know what we’re going to get in the Kentucky Derby. I have been trying to give him the benefit of the doubt for his inconsistency and keep ranking him high because of the amazing talent we know he possesses and what he is capable of on his best days. But after the Holy Bull do we really know if he’s moved forward or regressed from 2 to 3? That makes it all the more frustrating. Unfortunately we haven’t seen his kind of brilliance from anyone since the Breeders Cup. So we’ll stay positive and hope from now on he lives up to his name of a permanent basis.
4—Mystik Dan (Kenny McPeek, Goldencents – Ma’am by Colonel John)
Why not? Sure we still want to see him duplicate his brilliant Southwest Stakes victory on a fast track, but he was just so impressive, not only because of the eight-length margin and the huge speed figures, but the way he was striding out in the stretch and reaching out with great extension as if he was just getting started. And let’s not forget that his other impressive victory came on a fast track, in which he earned a 96 Beyer and a 6 ¾ Thoro-Graph number, which is pretty good for a second career start going 5 ½ furlongs. And it was over the Churchill Downs track. I realize Just Steel did not run well in the Rebel coming off his second in the Southwest, but he has been an in-and-outer his entire career, has been raced hard and often, and may very well have come back too soon. Some will frown over the thought of a son of Goldencents getting a mile and a quarter, but the Derby has been won before by sons of milers with a strong female family, and Mystik Dan has just that. His broodmare sire Colonel John won the Travers and his two maternal great-grandsires, Tiznow and Siphon, have combined to win two Breeders’ Cup Classics, two Santa Anita Handicaps, a Hollywood Gold Cup, and a Super Derby – all Grade 1 mile and a quarter races. In addition, his tail-female family traces to Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner Pleasant Colony and Belmont Stakes winner Conquistador Cielo. So we’ll keep him high up until he gives us reason not to.
5—Locked (Todd Pletcher, Gun Runner – Luna Rosa, by Malibu Moon)
Well, all the other principals from the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile are accounted for and now it’s up to him to help define that race, which has produced one good performance, one very disappointing performance, and one banned horse. This will be the first time this year we have a true major showdown between two of the leading 2-year-olds, as he squares off with Remsen winner Dornoch, as unintended as it is. If Locked should knock off Dornoch after missing his scheduled 3-year-old debut because of a fever then he would have to be ranked right up there in the top two, especially with the diversity he has shown, being able to win from anywhere on the track and the ability to overcome adversity, whether it is getting bumped at the start of his maiden victory or being carried five-wide on the first turn in his two-turn debut in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity. His five-furlong work in 1:01 2/5 should have him fit and ready. He drew outside Dornoch, which is where he wants to be, and the amount of speed in the race will be determined after it is decided whether Locked’s stablemate Speak Easy and the speedy Merit run here or in an allowance race the previous day.
6—Dornoch (Danny Gargan, Good Magic – Puca, by Big Brown)
He sharpened up for his debut in the Fountain of Youth Stakes with a half-mile work in :47 4/5. His main weapon is his early speed to go along with his willingness to fight and ability to come back after being passed. As mentioned earlier, we’ll know how much pressure he’ll face on the pace after we learn whether Speak Easy and Merit run in the Fountain of Youth or a nine-furlong allowance race the previous day. Speak Easy, who earned huge speed figures in his seven-furlong debut, would certainly help stablemate Locked in the Fountain of Youth. But it will be up to Todd Pletcher to decide if Speak Easy, with only one career start, is ready for such a arduous task. Dornoch’s reputation obviously was boosted by Sierra Leone’s huge effort in the Risen Star Stakes, but with back-to-back Thoro-Graph umbers of 6 and a career high 91 Beyer speed figure he will have to improve on that, and even if Speak Easy and Merit don’t run we should get an idea how fast he really is with the presence of the maiden Victory Avenue, who pushed Speak Easy through a :44 3/5 half to set up those big speed figures. So, get ready Mage fans to see if Dornoch can follow his big brother to the Churchill Downs winner’s circle and a chance at history.
7—Catching Freedom (Brad Cox, Constitution, Catch My Drift, by Pioneerof the Nile)
With Timblerlake likely headed for the Arkansas Derby, he probably will get his final prep in the Louisiana Derby, where the 1 3/16 miles should be to his liking, if of course he can get rid of that greenness and give himself a chance to be a factor in the Kentucky Derby. That is the one race you want a professional racehorse to be able to work out a trip in a 20-horse field. This guy is not there yet and has to show he can keep himself out of trouble. What he has going for him is the fact that he runs big every time in spite of himself. We have gone over his foibles several times, but he surely has his strengths, one of which is always putting himself in a position to win. Three of the major players – Sierra Leone, Track Phantom, and Honor Marie — have had their Thoro-Graph numbers regress in the past few weeks, and while he still needs that big jump to be a contender, he is the only horse to improve his Thoro-Graph numbers, going from a 7 to a 6 in the Risen Star. That followed back-to-back numbers of 9 ¾, so the progression is what you want to see. And anyone who has watched his races knows there is a lot more to him than what he has shown. If we can see that emerge in the Louisiana Derby with a clean trip and being more professional then we are looking at a serious Derby horse.
8—Track Phantom (Steve Asmussen, Quality Road – Miss Sunset, by Into Mischief)
He is the kind of horse you just don’t where to put, because on the surface he doesn’t look like a horse you’d want to bet on going a mile and a quarter. But on the other hand you know he’s going to be in contention for most of the race and is going to be trying every step of the way. Because he is so professional he always gives you the feeling that he can rate just off the pace, but he never does. He has run six times, all at a mile or longer, and has never gotten a Beyer figure of over 90. And in the Risen Star, where he needed to finally take a step forward after a series of mediocre Thoro-Graph numbers, he regressed from a 6 to a 7. So I have no idea where that leaves us. There are many horses I would pick over him to win the Derby, but not many I would pick over him to be there at the eighth pole. The bottom line is he is just so honest and so consistent I have to at least keep him in the top 10 for now.
9—Honor Marie (Whit Beckman, Honor Code – Dame Marie, by Smart Strike)
If you looked at his past performances before the Risen Star and noticed he hadn’t worked in 12 days that is because he did work, but his rider fell off him in the stretch, no fault of the horse, and the work obviously was never recorded, as he didn’t have a chance to finish it. Fortunately he was caught right away. Then the colt wound up on sloppy track with a lot of water on top that he could never get hold of being at the back of the field and taking a lot of kickback. So everything seemed to be against the colt for his 3-year-old debut. The fact that he came out of the race in great shape and cleaned up his feed bodes well for a potential rebound performance in the Louisiana Derby at a distance he should love. Yes, you will have to disregard his big Thoro-Graph regression, but his 5 ½ in the Kentucky Jockey Cub Stakes gives him a strong base on which to build, and he will need only a two to three point improvement off that to put himself in a good position for the Kentucky Derby. If you liked this horse before the Risen Star you have to stick with him until he gets a chance to show what he is capable of.
10—Tuscan Sky (Todd Pletcher, Vino Rosso – South Andros, by Sky Mesa)
While the top finishers of the Risen Star Stakes were running Thoro-Graph numbers ranging from 5 ½ to 7, many of them regressing from their previous race, he went from a 7 ½ to a 3 in his allowance victory earlier in the day. Although it is difficult to compare the two races because of the length of time between them it still shows that this colt could be something special and has already put himself square in the Derby picture, especially if he can repeat those numbers in his next race against far better horses than the one horse he beat in a virtual match race. Ned Toffey, general manager of Spendthrift Farm, remembers him as “a nice solid well-balanced colt with good bone, a strong hip and hind leg who was a good mover and overall a straightforward uncomplicated colt with a good mind.” Toffey was first told by Pletcher he was a nice colt last summer, but it wasn’t until he ran that they realized just how nice. You won’t know too much about him from his pedigree, as his female family is solid enough but nothing to get excited about. And you can decide about him being inbred to Mr. Prospector four times.
11—Liberal Arts (Robbie Medina, Arrogate, Ismeme, by Tribal Rule)
I am looking forward to his next start as much as any of them because I believe he is capable of improving as much as any of them. And I also want an indication that he will take after his sire regarding the mile and a quarter more than his tail-female line of California sprinters. He has only worked three and four furlongs all year, but couldn’t be in better hands than with Medina, who knows how to train for classic distances having worked under Shug McGaughey for so many years. And you can see McGaughey’s influence in the steady progression of his speed figures starting from day one. Beginning with his 20 ¾ Thoro-Graph number in his debut six races ago he is now at a 4 ¾, which he got in his solid third-place finish in the Southwest Stakes as the only horse to close, coming from ninth. With the long gap between the Southwest and the Arkansas Derby, Medina is in no hurry and has him scheduled for a half-mile work on Tuesday. The colt gets a lot out of his gallops and he is already fit with a solid foundation under him. I just like everything I’ve seen of him and consider him an enticing Future Wager bet at 57-1.
12—Hades (Joe Orseno, Awesome Slew – The Shady Lady, by Quality Road)
Like many of the major Derby hopefuls his Thoro-Graph numbers are in the same range, which in his case is a 6 in the Holy Bull, but as we saw he was able to beat a horse who was coming off a 1 ½, so there are no certainties in this game. So far he has proven to be a bargain as a $130,000 2-year-old purchase at the Ocala April sale. For those not familiar with his breeder Ocala Stud, there is plenty of history that goes with Hades. It was Ocala Stud that pioneered the 2-year-olds in training sales, selling their entire crop of juveniles in 1958, a practice they still follow. One of their early stallions, Rough’n Tumble, went on to sire the legendary Dr. Fager for Tartan Farm. And in 1961 they bred Horse of the Year Roman Brother. Until his Holy Bull victory is proven to be a fluke he has to be considered a major Derby contender based on who he beat and how he did it. A lot of the talk this year has been about Fierceness and his inability to overcome adversity, but it appears as if his only adversity in the Holy Bull was Hades.
13—Resilience (Bill Mott, Into Mischief – Meadowsweet, by Smart Strike)
With a career-high Beyer figure of 85 In the Risen Star, he hasn’t gotten much attention and was dismissed at 83-1 in the Future Wager, especially after he tired in the stretch. But this horse has never shown he wants to stalk the leader, and chasing Track Phantom through dawdling fractions is something I doubt you will ever see him do again. Watch for him to come from farther back in the Louisiana Derby. We mentioned earlier about all the horses whose Thoro-Graph number in the Risen Star regressed from their previous start. He ran his third consecutive 7 ½, and while that number needs to improve significantly, when a horse runs steady for three races without a regression it often means he is either ready for a big move forward or this is who he is. Right now I am banking on that big forward move. If Bill Mott thought enough of him to run him in a tough spot like the Risen Star off a maiden victory then I believe he is a horse you don’t want to dismiss off what in my opinion was pretty good performance.
14—Conquest Warrior (Shug McGaughey, City of Light – Tea Time, by Pulpit)
We’re finally about to see how good this horse is, as he takes on winners for the first time in a 1 1/8-mile allowance race at Gulfstream on Friday. At this time, two of his main threats, Speak Easy and Merit, are also entered in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, and their presence or lack of will have a major impact on this race. They both have speed and the only other horse who looks comfortable on the lead has never run on dirt. So while Speak Easy and Merit would offer the biggest challenge to Conquest Warrior they also are the only ones who would assure this is a truly run race and allow Conquest Warrior to get something out of it. With him having only two starts and not running since January 13, and this being his first race around two turns, he desperately needs to be tested in order to set him up for his big 100-point prep to get into the Derby. McGaughey has made sure he is plenty sharp by giving him a five-furlong bullet work in 1:00 3/5, which is flying at Payson Park.
15—Forever Young (Yoshito Yahagi, Real Steel – Forever Darling, by Congrats)
There are several ways to look at his thrilling victory in the Saudi Derby in order to determine whether he is a true Kentucky Derby contender, and in the end the positives outweighed the negatives. On the negative side he never changed leads down that long stretch and he had no extension to his stride for most of the stretch run. And he started drifting out as he appeared to be running out of gas. But that also worked as a positive because after he seemed beaten he still was able to find another gear and give a final surge, still on his wrong lead, that enabled him to nail Book em Danno right on the wire. Once he found his best stride and began reaching out he was relentless in that final furlong. And this was after a terrible start, in which he got jostled a bit, that put him at the back of the pack. He then made his move on the far turn to reach contention while five wide going into the turn and five wide coming out of it. It had to take a good deal of stamina and determination to actually get stronger the farther he went to pull off this unlikely victory. Now, we still don’t know his Derby status, because he didn’t earn any points, leaving his status up in the air for now. We’ll see if he can recover from such arduous trip and get his points in the UAE Derby in four weeks. Or he can come here early and look for a prep, as Mandarin Hero did last year. All in all I gained a lot of respect for this colt and would love to see more of hum.
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR
Let’s start with a bonus Derby Rankings flashback. In 2018 I was closely following a New Mexico-based horse on the Derby trail owned and bred by the Peacock family named Runaway Ghost, a son of Ghostzapper who was impressive winning the Sunland Derby, and who I had ranked No. 12 on Derby Dozen, but never made it to the big race. His dam Rose’s Desert, a New Mexico-bred owned and bred by the Peacock family and sired by five-time leading New Mexico-based sire Desert God was so successful as a racehorse, winning 10 of her 15 starts with five seconds, eight black type victories, and earning over $600,000, that when she was retired, 86-year-old Joe Peacock Sr. and his son Joe “Joey” Jr. decided to disperse all their other mares and put all their efforts into making Rose’s Desert a successful broodmare by breeding her to top Kentucky stallions. It looked as if they had hit pay dirt with Runaway Ghost, but even with him off the Derby trail they still had a 2-year-old colt by Curlin, who would be named Sheriff Brown and would win the Sunland Park Handicap, and a yearling filly by Ghostzapper, who would be named Our Iris Rose and would win over $300,000, waiting in the wings.
At the time they were awaiting the birth of a Mineshaft foal who was due on April 22, 2018. Rose’s Desert finally gave birth to a colt on May 6, one day after Justify won the Kentucky Derby. The Peacocks joked that it was a good omen that she waited until Derby weekend. Sadly, Joe Peacock Sr. passed away in September of 2020 at age 88, but that Mineshaft foal, who was named Senor Buscador (Mr. Prospector in Spanish) by Joey’s daughter-in-law Emma, would put the family back on the Derby trail. After winning his career debut and then romping by five lengths in the Springboard Mile at Remington Park with a spectacular stretch run, he was so impressive I ranked him No. 3 on my first Derby Rankings for Secretariat.com. But he too fell off the Derby trail. Well, you know the rest of the story. Last seen, Joey Peacock was celebrating Senor Buscador’s victory in the $20 million Saudi Cup, the richest race in the world. It was light years from the deserts of New Mexico to the deserts of Saudi Arabia. As for Rose’s Desert who started it all, she is in foal to Into Mischief and is booked this year to Uncle Mo. As Joey Peacock said, “She truly is the gift that keeps on giving.”
OK, now back to the matters at hand. The entire complexion of the Derby trail should change after this weekend’s races. On Friday, all eyes will be on Conquest Warrior, and we will learn where SPEAK EASY and MERIT will run. Speak Easy has been a hot commodity since his stunning maiden victory going seven furlongs in 1:21 4/5 and earning huge speed figures. Now we will see if he can duplicate that going two turns in only his second career start, whether it be here or in the Fountain of Youth. Merit is the horse who helped run Born Noble into the ground in their one-mile allowance match-up. Wherever they run, their speed will be a major factor. If both run in the allowance that makes VICTORY AVENUE more dangerous in the Fountain of Youth following his battle on the lead with Speak Easy, in which he finished second, beaten 1 ¾ lengths.
Don’t give up on BORN NOBLE, who could show up in next week’s Tampa Bay Derby, with AGATE ROAD re-routed to the Louisiana Derby. Yes he blew a three-length lead at the eighth pole in his allowance defeat, but it is important to note that In the Holy Bull later that day, Hades went his first two quarters in :25 and :25 2/5, actually getting slower the second quarter. Born Noble was in a dogfight with Merit, who was coming off a 10 ¼-length maiden score, right from the start, going their opening quarter in :24 1/5 and their second quarter in a blistering :22 3/5. They still were at each other’s throat through a third quarter in :23 4/5. Born Noble finally shook free from Merit at the top of the stretch, but the damage had been done and he simply got tired, as it was only his second career start. If this colt can rate, as he did in his 5 ½-length maiden victory going seven furlongs, who knows what we’ll see next.
If there is enough speed in the Fountain of Youth keep a close eye on REAL MACHO, who took advantage of the Born Noble – Merit speed duel to rally strongly in the final furlong. The son of Mucho Macho Man was flying at the end to beat Born Noble by a neck at 26-1 and should appreciate the stretch-out to 1 1/8 miles. This will be his big class test and he comes off Lasix. It will also be interesting to see how FRANKIE’S EMPIRE stretches out after winning three sprints, including a strong come from behind victory in the seven-furlong Swale Stakes. The son of Classic Empire had finished a well-beaten third in last year’s one-mile Sapling Stakes, but he seems to be in good form now and we’ll see how he handles top-class horses going nine furlongs.
All eyes at Santa Anita will be on Bob Baffert and who he decides to run in the San Felipe. Although it has no bearing on the Kentucky Derby it has a great deal of importance to last week’s No. 17 ranked horse SCATIFY, my way under the radar horse who I wrote about in depth. John Sadler said will decide what to do on Monday, so you will probably know by the time this gets posted. Although I am pretty sure he will run, not having any other options that I can see other than the Tampa Bay Derby, where he would be tough, I decided to put him here rather than rank him again not knowing for sure what they are doing. Nysos was not listed as a possible by Santa Anita, but that means little, as Baffert often calls an audible at the last minute. But I am extremely fascinated by Scatify, who not many people are paying attention to. It would not surprise me if he is back on the Derby Rankings next week, but we’ll see what Baffert does.
I am really looking forward to the Gotham Stakes, which looks to be one of the strongest and deepest fields in years with several potential live Derby horses possible, including the Jimmy Winkfield winner BERGEN, who we focused on a few weeks ago; CAPITAL IDEA, who could be any kind for Chris Clement, coming off an 8 ¼-length maiden romp in the slop at Aqueduct, in which his Thoro-Graph numbers went from a 10 ¼ to a 2 ¾; JUST A TOUCH, shipping from Fair Grounds for Brad Cox after winning his career debut going six furlongs in the slop and earning big speed figures; and DETERMINISTIC, another Clement horse who won his career debut going seven furlongs at Saratoga back in August, but has been working super over the deep Payson Park track. Todd Pletcher could have one or two and Cox could run a couple of others. And there is old reliable EL GRANDE O, who is a true warrior, finishing in the money in nine of his 10 starts for Linda Rice and just missing by a nose in the 1 1/8-mile Withers Stakes, which was his seventh stakes.
We will have a California invader for the Gotham, with John Sadler sending his crack sprinter SLIDER, who worked a sharp five furlongs in :59 flat. The son of Jimmy Creed is coming off a third-place finish to Muth in the seven-furlong San Vicente Stakes. Another invader, this one from Parx, is MAXIMUS MERIDIUS, who has won two of his three starts for Butch Reid and is coming off a sharp :47 3/5 work. The last Parx invader for a 3-year-old stakes in New York was Uncle Heavy, who upset the Withers Stakes, and Maximus Meridius is from the same stable, so beware of those Parx shippers from the Reid barn. Maximus Meridius is co-owned by Cash is King Stable, who brought you Afleet Alex in 2005.
Finally we have the John Battaglia Memorial at Turfway Park, which has attracted the first three finishers of the Leonatus Stakes, EPIC RIDE, BLUE EYED GEORGE, and GOOD BALI, but watch out for the vastly improved BOLT AT MIDNIGHT, who is coming off an impressive 4 ¾-length maiden score and who has run big in his two races with blinkers added. Brad Cox will send out his recent maiden winner for Godolphin, ENCINO, and the horse I am most interested in, our “under the radar sleeper” from Week 1, GETTYSBURG, who tries the synthetic for the first time.
Before the Rebel Stakes, Kenny McPeek said he was expecting big improvement from COMMON DEFENSE after his fifth-place finish in the Southwest Stakes in the mud and that’s just what he got, as Brian Hernandez, riding him for the first time, gave him a beautiful rail-skimming ride to finish a strong second to Timberlake with a three-length gap back to stablemate Northern Flame, who chased the pace the whole way and hung tough. Common Defense had shown promise breaking his maiden by 3 ½ lengths at Oaklawn in January. In the Rebel, he waited patiently behind the leaders and was able to get through a small opening on the inside and close strong enough to put a brief scare into Timberlake’s supporters. After running Beyer figures of 72, 73, ad 73, he jumped to a 90 in the Rebel, so he worth keeping an eye on next time.
While all eyes have been on Japan, we did have an interesting winner in England named NOTABLE SPEECH, who showed a big turn of foot to win the Kentucky Derby Conditions race at Kempton. Bottled up in traffic, the son of Dubawi burst through between horses to win by a length for Charlie Appleby and Godolphin.
Chad Brown, who already has the Derby favorite in Sierra Leone heading for the Blue Grass Stakes, has his sights set on other preps for Holy Bull runner-up DOMESTIC PRODUCT, who worked a half in :48 4/5, and impressive maiden winner TUSCAN GOLD.
Let’s not forget the Withers winner UNCLE HEAVY, who likely is headed to the Wood Memorial. One thing in the Daily Racing Form past performances that hasn’t changed over the years is the Track Variant, which still gives you a good idea just how fast or slow the track is on a given day. For example, Sierra Leone’s last two track variants were an 8 and a 14. The lower the track variant the faster the track, based on times relative to the track record, which would be a zero. Fierceness’s track variant in the Breeders’ Cup was a 5, while his Holy Bull was on a 19 track, significantly slower. In Uncle Heavy’s four races his track variants were a 30, 33, 52, and 28, which means that he has never run on a track that wasn’t extremely slow and tiring. To him, the 28 in the Withers was a highway compared to what he had been running on at Parx. The Wood has a tendency to be deep and slow, and you can be sure Uncle Heavy is one horse who won’t mind.
Upon watching the Gotham Stake several times I do not express the same enthusiasm as others have expressed with the winner , Deterministic. Nothing to take away from the winner but I would over 1/2 of the other runners were just going thru the motions or just did not like the going at all. The end of the race looks better for Deterministic than it really is as he passed El Grande-O who was shortening stride badly and a tiring Maximus Meridius, even the plodding Just a Touch was able to pass those 2. Deterministic just relished this going better than the rest. If I am Clement you ship him back to the Wood Memorial as he at least has a win at this track and hope for another rainy day. If the track is dry and he wins handily than we may be talking about something. We know he is good hands with Clement.
On another note BB had a Super Sunday with 3 graded stakes wins. In The San Felipe his 2 horses ran a bang up race and it was one of those raees were you wish it would have ended up in a dead heat. Not sure what happen to Scatify but that first turn was scary. I don’t know who is calling the shots with Mc Vay but they are going in the wrong direction with him. What a waste !!! . As I said before I think Pletcher might have missed an opportunity by not sending Fierceness west (JMHO )
Looking forward to your next ranking Steve !!!! Nothing this past weekend should make you change your #1.
Mc Bay is with one of the best in the business.
Rather, Mc Vay.
Mike,
At one point I might have agreed with you about the trainer. Not so sure now a days. Like I said I would like to know who is calling the shots with this horse. Even the mighty Secretariat first 2 races were Maiden races and the race after that was an allowance race. The horse needs to be put in a maiden race or optional claiming and get a win!!!
If BB or Lukas trained Zenyatta she never would made it to the starting gate, stating to
writer Pat McQueen five years ago.
And we probably can safely say that if that trainer had trained American Pharoah or Justify they never would have won the Triple Crown !!!
Whatever it takes,right? Good to know BB never threw a horse into the deep end. Lol
BB just had a glorious day winning 3 grades stakes including 2 Grade 1’s dirt and turf. He has the best 3 year olds in the land where he will showcase across the country soon. Be happy.
Sure lol! In a four horse field with two being his. What a joke!
“If I am Clement you ship him back to the Wood Memorial”
Fortunately, Christophe Clement is calling the shots on Deterministic’s path moving forward on the Derby trail, not you.
The fact that he plans to ship Derterministic to Florida to resume training, is a strong indication that he’ll enter him in the Florida Derby, not the Wood. This colt has a street fighter demeanor, and the tenacity of a bulldog as he displayed in both career starts.
In the wild, “herd instinct” comes into play and the Alpha stallion leads the herd. If Deterministic grew up in the wild, more than likely he would be that Alpha stallion, IMO.
Dismiss this son of Liam’s Map at your own peril.
Have a nice day Downthestretch.
Second that! Best spot for him is Fl. Derby.
Exactly, Mike.
Bill, and this is from a quote from above from the man himself… Steve Haskings
“DETERMINISTIC, another Clement horse who won his career debut going seven furlongs at Saratoga back in August, but has been working super over the deep Payson Park track”…. FlorIda ,,,, He sent him north to Aqueduct NY to run in the Gotham.
So just because he sent him back to Florida does not make it automatic he will run in the Florida Derby
Sorry Steve …. that’s ….. Haskins
I didn’t state that Deterministic is an “automatic” in the Florida Derby. Clement has not made a decision on his next start, but my gut feeling is that the Florida Derby will be his next start. Stay tuned.
And Bill don’t think I am dismissing Deterministic… Like I said If he wins on a dry track we maybe talking about something. There were several horses in the Gotham that did not run their race because of the track conditions but we know one thing … Deterministic loves the rain !!!
Downthestretch
Regarding Determinist’s next start, I read on another site that he’s listed as possible in four different prep races.
Florida Derby, 3-30
Arkansas Derby, 3-30
Blue Grass, 4-6
Wood, 4-6
My preference for him would be:
1- Wood
2- Bluegrass
3 – Florida Derby
4- Arkansas Derby
If I only had a Crystal Ball for the weather.
Of all the scratches over the weekend, the one that disturbed me the most was Speak Easy. I was impressed but not blown away by his earlier race, and I was anxious to see how he would do against some of the top horses. But that was not to be–at least not then. One question I had was where was NBC when this incident occurred? If one of the favorites for a major stakes presumably tosses his rider, runs off, and hits the rail in front of every spectator and commentator there, why wasn’t somebody covering that? They claimed at first not to even know why he was scratched. Were they simply remiss in their duties or have they become so paranoid that they won’t let us see anything that might possibly have a bad outcome?
I was watching the Gulfstream Park coverage, they missed it as well just an instant message from Peter Aiello that Speak Easy has been withdrawn because he had run off. This was before they knew of the cuts and abrasions.
That’s interesting. I don’t know on what part of the track this occurred, but it wasn’t exactly behind closed doors. NBC did talk to a veterinarian–I think the one who scratched him–a few minutes later and he mentioned cuts, but we saw nothing.
Jiffy, they were still introducing the other colts on the track, owner/trainer/jockey etc, when the announcement of the scratch came across the track speaker by Arielle. I was stunned and concerned he was presenting beautifully prior to the call.
From memory, one of the track commentators said that Ortiz Jr was giving Sleep Easy a thoroughly vigorous warm up. Obviously, they were going hell for leather to the lead.
I often tape race broadcasts and I just checked my tape to see what I missed. NBC was showing commercials when the incident occurred. When they got back, they did show a brief shot of Speak Easy trotting riderless with Irad standing and watching. At that point they only knew that he was scratched. We didn’t see or hear anything about his warmup or how he lost his rider.
I am just catching up on the comments on the weekend KD Preps.
I find it extremely interesting that despite the winner of the 2022 KD and the runner up in the 2023 KD emerging from Tur Way Park’s Jeff Ruby. There were no comments on the John Battaglia (List Stake) the prep for the Jeff Ruby. The Battaglia, whilst not graded stakes, it does offer KD points of 20-10-6-4-2. My apology if I missed any comments on this listed stake.
The winner was the Godolphin owned, Brad Cox trained and Nyquist sired Encino. Rich Strike contested the 2022 renewal of the Battaglia and finished 4th by 3L. That renewal was won by Tiz The Bomb in 1:44.12. Encino from the #12 post and a 4W trip won in 1:44.22.
For the speed figure folks. Encino was assigned 100 compared to Rich Strike’s 93 for 4th. The runner up by 1L was Epic Ride, a physically imposing son of BCC winner Blame out of a Gio Ponti mare.
Does Encino as a last out MSW winner belong in the conversation as a listed stakes winner? The results in the KD over the last five years, mandates that none on the trail should be ignored, particularly from the most successful venue in the KD over the last two years.
From a pedigree perspective Encino ticks a lot of boxes. His sire was an undefeated Champion 2YO and KD winner. His dam sire was a Preakness/Travers winner. His 2nd dam Bedazzle produced 2007 KD winner STREET SENSE. There are two exceptional colts with the Nyquist/ Bernardini cross i.e., Nysos and Knightsbridge. Neither will be part of the 2024 KD.
Is Encino as talented as the two mentioned above? It doesn’t appear so but that is irrelevant. He has 20 points and is poised to gain more in the Jeff Ruby. Remember you have to be in to win it.
The colt appears to be progressing in the speed department. He broke his maiden over 8 1/2F completed in 1:46.97. His winning time in the Battaglia was 2.75 seconds faster from a wide post and a 4W trip. He has a dirt pedigree and could be faster on turf/synthetic surface at CD..
There is absolutely no reason this colt should be excluded from the conversation.
I agree with you, Counter Point. He seems like a nice horse, if not as imposing as Dornoch or Sierra Leone. Looks aren’t everything, and all three have run similar figures in their last races.
A group of us were watching A P Indy’s debut race over a heave Santa Anita track, on a Fall afternoon at an Albany, Oregon bowling alley—all four of us said “Derby Winner”….well he missed the Derby but won The Belmont, and The Classic…..Conquest Warrior is like that, for me…I saw something in his maiden win, then saw more of it last Friday…..I cannot wait to see more of it!..
Matt,
Conquest Warrior is a nice colt, but I am of the opinion you are being a bit premature reading his ability. He was the only genuine 9F entrant in the field. Substitute Conquest Warrior with Sierra Leone who has won his races overcoming adversities in faster times.
Does Conquest Warrior’s late race speed figures compare to that of Sierra Leone?
Which of the 2 colts possess faster stride turnover rate?
Which of the 2 colts won on debut with trouble and his hand close to the line?
If you like the colt a lot,by all means support him. But you are required to be measured and stay with the bounds of reality.
With the above stated. – Dreams are free,
Several decades ago I flew my family to Arcadia, to see Cigar run in The Big Cap but he was scratched…..$37 for four seats and a table…..Lukas won race one with a $65 payout….as we were seated they were having a tribute to recently retired Best Pal…..there was only one elevator, we had a double baby stroller, and an elderly man in a wheelchair insisted we go first, and I thanked Mr Jimmy Kilroe….he passed a month later…..my wife told me to bet on Mr Purple, and with the winnings we went to the sushi bar down the street, after the races we had a wonderful time …
Great story ! Fun to see Mr purples name here he was a favorite of ours too the Senor Buscador of 1996
My big wager that day was on a Cal bred named Cavonier, for this new guy Bob…..he ran a distant fifth, came back at 10-1 and won the SA Derby, then nearly won the Kentucky Derby and was 10-1 again, or close to it…..
That’s a wonderful story, Matthew. When you go to the races, something magical always happens no matter what.
TO get dosage profiles go to THE DIRTY HORSE CLUB. has a different take on them. roger
Thank you, Roger. I’ll check it out.
[This comment is awaiting moderation, even though I replaced the dot before “com” with “DOT]
I was never a fan of the dosage index. Too much subjectivity was involved. But the following story from 2019 may answer your question:
[Just search for “Steve Miller Carrying On the Legacy of Dosage,” a 2019 BloodHorse article]
Oops. Meant to reply to Dewey Hebert’s question.
Thank you, Winston. I found the article in Bloodhorse and learned that, indeed, Steve Miller is carrying the torch to continue studying dosages to develop the dosage index. I, myself am not a big fan of and do not totally trust the accuracy of the dosage index. Yet, it always was fun to see how the dosage numbers stacked up in supporting my take on a horse’s stamina to go a distance.
So, to sum it up, it appears that the dosage index data is updated and current, assuming that Steve Miller is still on the job. Thanks again, Winston. Your sense of recall is keen.
I’ve noticed that the dosage profiles are still listed when I look up a pedigree. It is my understanding that these figures are not up to date as no one currently is maintaining this data base. Is that correct, Steve?
While not an exact handicapping tool, I’ve always found them interesting and enjoyed factoring the data into choosing my KD prospects. Mssrs. Rasmussen and Romans did an outstanding job of providing the dosage data but, from what I’ve read, it was an exhausting task. Still, it’s a shame that no one has picked up the baton to carry on.
Meanwhile, in Japan, on the turf the exciting full brother to the Arc winner Sottsass, Shin Emperor, flashed home to be second in the Hochi Hai Yayoi Sho Deep Impact Kinen (Japanese 2000 Guineas Trial) at the Nakayama Racecourse on Sunday. This colt appears to be improving in every race but should be an even better four year old than three year old going by the breeding.
Will Shin Emperor eventually go on to win the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe for Japan, possibly, the promise is there especially the way he quickens when asked – the mark of Siyouni.
I think Dornoch should be #1, despite the lukewarm response to his win on Sat. It was the fastest prep race so far, in raw time, which has credibility if you have an idea of the track variant, compared to the sauced up speed figures that don’t agree with each other. I don’t think you can criticize his victory too much, he pulled it out and won, and sped up when he needed to, at the start, in the middle, and at the end of the race. If he responds like that every time, he’ll win the Derby.
Agreed!
I’d like to take this time to give a big shout out to Steve Haskin, for providing this forum for all of us to post our comments on the sport of horse racing in general, and the Kentucky Derby in particular.
We can all benefit and learn from each other if we keep an open mind. Needless to say, Steve is the leader of the pack, but there are several others on this blog that have much to offer with their vast knowledge of the sport we all love.
To all of the regular contributors out there, please keep your comments coming, they’ll be well received.
Well said, Bill! I, too, am grateful to Steve for this forum as well as all his insights, from which I keep learning. It’s fun to “stop by” here before or just after a major race to see what people are saying about it.
Thanks for the reply, arlingtonfan.
I suspect many others feel the same way.
That’s very kind of you Bill. Thank you so much. And you are so right about the group we have.
The dust is starting to clear (albeit slowly) on the Derby trail. I’m concerned about Locked as I don’t think that his connections will rush to get him ready for the Derby. Therefore, I’m dropping Locked from my list….
DERBY DEW’S DOZEN
1) Sierra Leone
2) Forever Young
3) Deterministic
4) Conquest Warrior
5) Mystic Dan
6) Fierceness
7) Honor Marie
8) Dornoch
9) Timberlake
10) Catching Freedom
11) Track Phantom
12) Just a Touch
Peut-être pour toi, Dewey, mais pour les autres au contraire mon ami, la boue s’épaissit en un malaise de pudding au chocolat.
Per Christophe Clement, Deterministic will be shipped to Florida, to resume his training regimen. However, his next start has yet to be decided. Stay tuned for that announcement.
During a post-race meeting with Joel Rosario, Clement asked him what he thought of Determinist’s performance in the Gotham, Rosario stated “he’s matured since his maiden win”.
I’m hoping Deterministic will run in the Florida Derby, not the Wood Memorial. We’ll see in due course.
Bill , I’m hoping Deterministic will run in the Florida Derby and Pandagate in the Wood Memorial
Handicapping Steve— I think Conquest Warrior will be either #1 or #2…I got him #1 ..
Hold your horses, Matthew! He hasn’t even entered a stakes race yet. That said, I have him at #6.
I for one wonder whether Steve will limit his list to 15 or even 12 considering the carnage that took place over the weekend. Scatify almost went down in the San Felipe, too. That completely took him out of the race, and considering all the scratches (expected, unexpected and just weird), picking a dozen or 15 horses is like throwing up matches to see where they land.
Understood….Shug is gambling! He wanted to take things slowly, and he got what he wanted! He also was quickly pulled up–after being eased, late in the race —they saved horse, and that’s another thing that they wanted ….so far so good, so very good …
The horse was much more impressive than the “figures” indicated, Matthew. And the final time was good enough to win a number of recent Florida Derbies.
Wine Me Up was dappled so I wheeled him in the double, nearly hit…Mc Vay ducked out and lost a couple lengths, he also had dapples and is large. .. Sadler s colt is small framed, looked like a sprinter…
Mc Vay might just scrape into the Derby depending on how many runners Bob Baffert enters for the Santa Anita Derby. The jockey on Mc Vay looked back then didn’t perceiver after seeing where Scatify was, the longer the better.
Davids Mc Vay is a beautiful colt….he needs to improve, but today against two Bob horses he stuck around some
Thanks Matthew. He is a beautiful specimen but will need more speed ‘trained’ into him which obviously John Shirreffs will endeavor to do over the next few weeks. He won’t win the Santa Anita Derby but might be lucky to place well. I’m hoping for a Californian runner to run in the Derby.
Now that’s what I call a stretch duel!
Bobby will have to send them both to the East Coast…
There’s just more big buck races for these overclassed horses in SoCal.
Should be interesting.
Ark Derby, Blue Grass 4 sure!
Maymun to Arkansas Derby….
I see Imagination, the wise-guy pick, is now the odds-on favorite for the San Felipe.
J.J. Hysell
@trifectabox
·
4m
On Speak Easy: Pletcher told
@DRFGrening
his horse would miss a minimum of a week of training and could head to WinStar where they have a hyperbaric chamber to accelerate the healing of his cuts.
“He’s going to miss a little bit of training; exactly how much, I don’t know yet.”
Thanks for posting this, Mark. Obviously, Speak Easy won’t be ready for the Tampa Bay Derby. I suppose it’ll be day to day, with a diminishing series of options to make the Derby.
Ms Blacktype, Born Noble worked on March 1 so the Tampa Bay Derby could be on the cards.
Circa sports bumped Born Noble odds from 50-1 to 100-1 . Holding at 60-1 at William Hill
Thanks Mark. With these talented but extremely inexperienced colts of Pletchers it’s difficult to gauge what is happening week by week let alone 2 months down the road.
Sometimes, a small hiccup on the Derby Trail derailing the advance is of greater benefit to the colt in the long run. With the Belmont Stakes at only 10f this year perhaps that might be a wiser goal. Mind you, you would expect a much larger field in the Belmont Stakes this year than normal. Baffert’s colts, noted.
Thank you for the update.
When the ownership group bought Deterministic for 625K, the first thing they probably did was come up with a name for their recently purchased colt. I can picture them setting around a table, having coffee, or a highball, discussing a name selection.
How they came up with name Deterministic is anyone’s guess, but it certainly fits the determination that this colt displayed in two career starts. For those that missed his impressive performances in his first out maiden win, and the way he shot through an opening between El Grande O and Just a touch, in the Gotham, I would strongly suggest reviewing the video replays of those two referenced races. That said, Deterministic shot to the top of my current top Derby Rankings, which are as follows, (in preferential order):
1) Deterministic
2) Sierra Leone
3) Dornoch
4) Fierceness
5) Mystic Dan
6) Conquest Warrior
7) Tuscan Sky
8) Timberlake
9) Track Phantom
10) Locked
11) Catching Freedom
12) Honor Marie
Bill, like your number 1 also. Honor Marie is a favorite of mine.
Thanks for the reply, Mike.
It’s good to hear you like Deterministic as well. Reading between the lines, Clement mentioned his next start is undecided at this time, which could mean the Wood Memorial may not be in the plan. It wouldn’t surprise me if the connections head south and enter Deterministic in the Florida Derby. If it is the Florida Derby, it will be a great test against some of the top contenders on this year’s Derby trail.
BTW, I liked Honor Marie’s performance in the Kentucky Derby Jockey Club Stakes, back in November, but in the Risen Star he was last at the 3/4 pole and had too much ground to make up to put himself into contention in the late going. I expect to see a better performance in the Louisiana Derby.
Good luck, Mike.
Thanks Bill! Thinking Fla Derby also. Yes,hopefully HM improves. Great respect for trainer CC. Deserving of this horse.
Hey Mike
Clement just confirmed what I expected, Deterministic will ship to Florida to resume his training regimen. But he gave no indication as to where he will be point him for his next start.
Thanks Bill for update. A hunch it’s Fla Derby.
My take on the FOY is Dornoch did what he had to do. Ran a credible race and should improve off of this race. I do not compare him with Deterministic as different track and racing surface. In the San Felipe today I was originally surprised Nysos was even going to be in the race (where is MUTH ???), but with him now scratched I give the slight edge to Imagination as I think he has a little more base under him now. Scatify should run a decent race and should improve off of last race. Wine Me Up should put in a good race and would not be surprised if he won. Baffert feels he will get better with age. I wish Baffert was a better Turf trainer as he may be better suited for that with his pedigree. Mc Vay not sure what to make of him. Maybe he will wakes up today as he sure cost enough. Last work he broke the one minute barrier !!!
Pletcher has his work cutout for him with trying find places for his horses to get KD points.
It’ll be interesting to see where Bob Baffert places his colts from here on. Could be a major spoiler for those trying to collect points and enter the run for the roses.
This will be known as “The Lost Weekend”….some big name scratches…
A wonderful Billy Wilder film as well.
Billy Wilder made three of my favorite movies….Some Like It Hot…..Double Indemnity….and the vastly underrated Ace In The Hole!….
Yes Matthew, Wilder is one of my favorite directors. Sunset Boulevard, Witness for the Prosecution, The Front Page are other favorites of mine. Wilder truly directed actors not just letting them portray a certain persona. William Holden, Jack Lemmon, and Walter Matthau were at their best under Wilder’s influence.
Great movie, I remember it well. Ray Milland played a drunk
With Nysos no longer in the picture, I feel the San Felipe sets up for Imagination, who ran Maymun to a head in his previous race. While I’ve been high on Scatify (as has Steve), he may make the lead and get collared at the end. I’d be delighted if Scat prevails, obviously.
Any info on why Locked was scratched?
Bruce, just repeating what I believe Lynda King said yesterday, Todd didn’t like the way he galloped the morning of the race.
Thank you, sorry I missed Lynda’s post.
Ms B, Todd also said they were going to check Locked out.
The plot thickens . . .
Pletcher is poor in my view in getting horses ready to rumble for the big dance. Curious, this crop BSF seems awfully below average than a normal crop by this time of year. Is that accurate? Does anyone have that data?
BSF???
If Beyer figs are your cup of tea, you can compare this year’s prep races (Jan 20-Mar 2) to the same races last year. Figures increased from ’23 to ’24 in 7 of the 12 races.
STAKES 2024/2023
Lecomte 90/92
Southwest 101/96
HolyBull 90/82
R Lewis 105/100
Withers 84/91
S Davis 80/77
Risen Star 91/89
Sunland 89/77
Rebel 93/94
Battaglia 89/91
Gotham 93/90
FOY 88/98
Good comparison. I thought the purpose of the preps was to prepare for the Derby, work out the issues or at least reveal them, and improve. Some are winners right away, others work up to it and may be better racehorses than the prodigies come Derby time.
Yes, I wish they, the prep races, were still like that. Now, with the point system, getting points has overridden the goal of improving a colt gradually to inevitably peak on the first Saturday in May. Todd Pletcher’s system somewhat is the epitome of the new style, you get to the dance but have difficulty winning the main objection.
Objective, not objection. Autocorrect overrule. lol.
I’ll bet he’s always hoped to win, and intended to, but also knew when it wasn’t likely to happen. I do think he had high hopes for Forte, otherwise he wouldn’t have gone through the ordeal with the KD vet. He’s had some bad luck lately, I’m not sure if something is amiss or if it’s just bad luck. He still won a few stakes races on Saturday.
For sure but in a 20 horse field at Churchill Downs luck is a premium. The modern program is here to stay, like it or not.
You have, exaggerated here for effect – Baffert, arguably, too hard on young colts or Pletcher, arguably, too soft in preparing for the Derby.
For me, Asmussen’s and Cox’s preparation is preferred but then again the Derby isn’t a favorite race the Belmont Stakes is of the Triple Crown races.
Thanks, Winston, much appreciated.
Interesting post, Winston! There’s not that much relative difference between the figures for each race between the two years. I think what’s different is our expectations. We expect horses like Sierra Leone and Dornoch to improve over last year, but it’s good to keep in mind that for many of the horses who showed promise at 2, it’s the first start of the year.
Great stats! Thank you!
Anybody notice the string of bad luck for Pletcher, in the Derby preps ?…
Things average out. It may be a precursor to a lucky Derby day.
I don’t know what price Conquest Warrior is, right now—IF…he wins The Florida Derby impressively he would be a heavy Kentucky Derby favorite —and I think he’s going to win The Florida Derby..
I also think he has a good chance to win the Florida Derby, Matthew. With his pedigree and the magnificent specimen he is, it’s no wonder that he fetched $1,000,000 at the sales. The investment should pay off handsomely.
Just got back after going out tonight and am just catching up. Will probably watch the craziness surrounding the Fountain of Youth tomorrow.
FYI, all: Dornach’s preliminary Beyer is 88; Deterministic’s in 93.
Hi Ms Blacktype
Thanks for posting those Beyer numbers. It just goes to show you how these various speed futures conflict with each other.
Deterministic earned an Equibase Speed Figure of 99 and Dornoch earned a 102 Equibase Speed Figure. Go figure.
Bill, that’s why hardly attention to numbers. Remember when some blasted Chrome for slow times? Last checked,
he finished ahead of everyone on Derby day. Mostly the eye test is my vehicle of choice. Many lose their minds regarding numbers, etc.
The modern day “handicappers” put too much emphasis on speed figures. They are lost without them. Once an article is posted after a big race, people are curious to know what the speed figures are. Apparently, their eyes and brains were on pause.
Case in point, Sierra Leon’s race….low numbers, big performance considered how and where the race was run. Mystik Dan….huge numbers on a sealed wet speedway.
A case in point about figures, Zany — Encino got an 89 Beyer, Dornoch 88. I know who I like going forward. That said, I’m learning to think about figures in terms of progression and in relation to others in a given race.
That said, how will we feel if less fancied horses with smoking figures (Mystik Dan for one) smoke Sierra Leone and Dornoch on Derby day.
Unlike Randy Moss,never do i lose my mind on numbers. As usual,he proved it again yesterday with his little
tirade over winner of FOY.
Each race is a SINGULAR event run under specific conditions at a specific place and time. There are many variables that can determine the outcome of each race. Talented horses are placed in stakes/graded races based on ability. Speed figures can be an indication of their abilities. However, they are NOT machines.
At this stage in their three old phase, progression can be drastic. Don’t let one or two low speed figures discourage you from a horse you like. Even top older handicap horses can not sustain lofty numbers for too long.
As for the Mystik Dan scenario, who said he is a less fancied horse? The betting public? The so called “experts”?
Zany, totally agree with your comments. Yes, progression is rapid in many iinstances.
Totally agree as well.
Chrome was coming off 107(San Felipe) and 108 Beyers(SA Derby) into the Derby. Nobody was calling him slow.
Many Chrome detractors called Derby time slow.
He also went off the favorite. Slow horses don’t go off favored in a 20 horse race.
After Derby some stated time was slow.
But that’s wasn’t your claim. You said he was criticized for slow times(plural). You were clearly talking about his prep races leading into the Derby. Don’t try revisionist history here, just admit nobody called Chrome slow going into the Derby as you claimed.
BS! Do not attempt to tell me what I stated. My comments refer to AFTER DERBY! So much for being
civil!
Congrats! You’re only individual on the planet who never made an error.
Typical Randy Moss slamming winner of FOY. Hadn’t run since Nov, five breezes. Moss is all about numbers only! Contending numbers
aren’t everything. Recalling once upon a time Andy Beyer stated Zenyatta was slow.lol
He didn’t want him to win in the first place, tells all you need to know about his “analysis”.
Agreed Disco! He’s a sore loser as usual.
‘
Hope he did not say that Dornoch defeated a 27 to 1 longshot by “only” 2 lenghts…LOL
Dornoch had five half mile works…. he’s a large horse, I’m sure he needed the race and I’m sure he’ll benefit from the effort…
His trainer even said in his DRF interview he did not want Dornoch to be peaking today….
Correct! Last thing Danny wanted is horse cranked all the way today. Moss is a charmer! Lol
In the post race interview Danny flat out stated he did not expect to win today and that circumstances led to this victory-the scratches, more than anything. He will pick up his game next outing for sure.
Agreed!
Matthew, please give Mc Vay a ‘Lukas’ psychological pep talk tomorrow about how the big fish has fled the pond and that now it’s his time to shine – everything to gain and nothing to lose. Rocky Theme playing in the background.
Also like this horse and great respect for John.
Deterministic received an Equibase Speed Figure of 99, I’m anxious to see his Beyer number.
After tracking fractions of 23.42, 46.63, 1:10.94, 1:23.37 he finished in a good time of 1:37.37, drawing off by 2 lengths.
Will Deterministic land somewhere in Steve’s Derby Rankings – Week 7? I believe he’ll be there, at what position is anyone’s guess. Hopefully, Steve will provide his Thoro-Graph number.
At any rate, if he stays healthy, he’ll be in the Derby starting gate, which is all I want to see.
He looked pretty good, better than Dornoch. I do think the riders all rode aggressively in the slop, making it kind of a relay, which may inflate the figure a little.
Lol. Hadn’t run since November, give breezes. What did you expect?
Five breezes.
Thanks Bill for the update. Just take note he ran 1:36.37 which is very impressive under those track conditions
You’re welcome, Nelson
Yes, I was impressed with the finishing time as well. As a comparison, the fractions that were set in the FOY, were slower at every call, and Dornoch ran the final furlong in 13.38, versus 13.00 set by Deterministic in the Gotham in the slop.
What gets me, Dornoch received an Equibase Speed Figure of 102, versus a 99 which Deterministic received in the Gotham.
I realize that I’m comparing different tracks, different surface conditions and different distances, but something is wrong with that picture, IMO. I’m looking forward to the Beyer numbers that they will be assigned.
At any rate, I’m just happy Deterministic earned 50 points, and will move forward on the Derby trail.
I have found that most of the speed figures are misleading when applied over wet tracks and turf… I have flagged a lot of inconsistencies from Equibase scale. This time, for instance, Kinetic Sky received an Equibase of 107 in winning the Stymie Stakes in 1:37 whereas it assigns a mere 99 to Deterministic’s 1:36 1/5 … I don’t think the track condition changed than much in just one hour… these two must be swapped in my view…!
It is like they don’t care about teletimers whatsoever… Anyway, let’s see how the other Speed Figures come up … but they will never supersede an astute eye test and a deep analysis of the race dynamics …
Hey Nelson
Your points are spot on, the last sentence says it all.
I just want to mention what Joel Rosario had to say during a post-race interview. Instead of taking all the credit for the win, he simply said, “I just let him find his way”. If you get a chance, watch the video replay of the Gotham and you’ll see what Rosario was referring to. During the late stages of the stretch drive, Deterministic was laying 3rd on the outside of two horses, then he moved to his left and shot through those two with little effort to secure the win. What’s so impressive, he did it on his own, Rosario didn’t guide him through that opening, he did it on his own.
Further evidence that Deterministic is a real bulldog, with that street fighter demeanor.
He will be top choice of the betting public should he run in the Wood Memorial…brilliant future indeed.
Agreed, on both points.
The Gotham was faster than the Stymie Stakes which was run in
(:23.86, :46.64, 1:11.50, 1:24.17, 1:37.08)
Deterministic was about 3.5 lengths better than 6-year-old Kinetic Sky … which is something…in’t?
Bill, the preliminary Beyer for Deterministic is a 93, per the DRF recap. Pretty snappy, since he hadn’t run since August. Don’t know where Steve will put him in the next top 15, but it’s a good bet he’ll be there.
Thanks, Ms Blacktype.
The full moon was last week!
Had Shug entered the Fountain of Youth … he’d be “in”……
Dornoch ran ok for a long layoff, should be able to run ahead of the others more easily though.
He looked and ran better than any other 3 yo so far, I would say. Has a good physique, like one of those old paintings.
SPEAK EASY scratched from the Fountain of Youth…what a chain of events over there!
Just hope Dornoch run his race … no more surprises please!
Speak Easy got loose in post parade and got a cut
Thanks for the update Mark…I was expecting new players coming off the FoY but instead we got three patients now…
I hope Speak Easy recovers fully after this setback…
Fun tri in FOY requires faith. 4$ tri, 1 w 457 w457 and I hate to say it but, tough trip for Dornoch. A 4th place finish for Dornoch makes this worth it.
What a farce at Gulfstream Park. Speak Easy is scratched because he got loose according to the track.
I hope there will be no glitches at Turfway Park’s John Battaglia …
BTW your Gettysburg Address is a scratch there…
Yes, Nelson. I received the new entry of Gettysburg Address at Turfway Park yesterday; March 8, Race 9. This year’s Derby Trial is, sadly, becoming more comical than historical. Especially, if the Baffert colts start winning the major preps in succession which they well might.
Make that a 20 dollar exacta 4 with 5
Ha ha you have to laugh. All Speak Easy had to do was get through the gate and he’s into the Kentucky Derby but no the racing gods think otherwise. Imagine the language that came out of Pletcher’s mouth.
By the way, Speak Easy is nominated for the Tampa Bay Derby so, if the colt is fine, they may try there.
Once again, Deterministic showed his street fighter demeanor, fighting out for the win. My 99-1 longshot in Derby Futures Pool 3 is officially on the Derby trail. Hats off to Joel Rosario for his great ride aboard Deterministic.
He looks good Bill. He has grit and that goes along way in the Derby.
Thanks for the reply El Kabong
Exactly, the demeanor you want to see in the KD.
Exactly Bill. Great trainer!
Thanks for the reply Mike.
I agree, Christophe Clement doesn’t get the credit he deserves. He’s one of the best turf trainers out there.
Bill. I also like DETERMINISTIC . One of my Derby sleepers , I bet him a while back at Circa – $200.00 at 175-1
Actually , DETERMINISTIC was not listed . I had to contact Paul Z at Circa and ask him to add him to the list.
WOW!
I thought that I had good odds at 99-1, but you’ve got fantastic odds at 175-1.
Best of luck Mark M.
Right back at ya Bill
Fun tri in the slop at AQ. 7,8,11, 13 over 3,10 over 3,7,8,10, 11,13
RE: Gotham Stakes
The sloppy track could work in favor of El Grande (8-1), who is the more seasoned of the entrants. He’s finished in the money in 8 out of 9 races. I’m hoping that Deterministic makes a good accounting of himself and earns some much-needed Derby points. A win would put Deterministic on the Derby trail.
Edit
Correction, El Grande O has finished in the money in 9 out of 10 races.
The public seems to agree with you as El Grande O is 4 to 1 down from the 8 to 1 morning line.
The almost black colt will be tough to beat with his great speed and affinity with Aqueduct wet conditions…
With the FoY becoming just a match between Dornoch and Speak Easy the Gotham is the race to bet.
Good luck in all your bets!
Good luck to you as well, Nelson.
No definitive answer yet regarding Go Chrome Go.
I have not watched replay but reports are that he wss pulled up abruptly but galloped after behind the field.
Report that microchip in saddle bag bothered him? Not sure what this microchip is or where the saddlebag is.
He resented the microchip embedded in the saddle blanket and bucked
He is OK.
Does anyone know the purpose of these microchips?
Timing.
Timer.
Thank you
I hope Locked and Victory Avenue go back to their normal self… they should forget about Derby glory at this point.
Switching gears to Dubai, William Buick has another sensational accomplishment in his resume… he won the Jumeirah 1,000 Guineas with Cinderella’s Dream despite his saddle slipping making him lost his irons coming to the last bend. Cinderella’s Dream won by 5 lengths in a way that recreated Indian Horse Relay racing…
I am not sure if this has happened in a Stakes before… generally when jockeys lose their irons they pull their horses up…
But William Buick performed an unthinkable riding feat today…
Amazing ride considering losing stirrups and saddle slipping.
Patrick Lewis
@UplandFlats
·
8m
Victory Avenue already looking and feeling better. Love this dude. Video on X
Good to hear. Thank you.
Concern with race time is totally misplaced, especially this year, with slow times but horses have the same potential as previous years. It’s a mistake to blame bad breeding, unproveable. Frontrunners with ability to win will slow it down, they all follow that. This year could be slow preps then a blazing fast finale race, i.e. Derby.
I have no faith in Dornoch’s trainer but he may be a horse that can rise above his connections. Otherwise I hope that Speak Easy wins with good form, I’ll drink to that if so.
Given Todd’s Pletcher BOW. It was never a good idea to rank two of his horse #1 & #2.
A leopard never changes its spots.
Now that Locked and Victory Avenue have scratched, Dornoch and Speak Easy appear to be the top two in the FOY.
The main question regarding Speak Easy, can he carry his impressive speed over a distance of ground, in this case, 8.5 furlongs, and will he pass the class test? Dornoch has tactical speed and the ability to carry it in impressive fashion over 9 furlongs, (Remsen). Speak Easy could be a monster in the making, and with Irad Ortiz Jr. in the irons, the sky is the limit for this son of Constitution.
That said, I believe the way to go in a superfecta p/w wager would be as follows; Key Speak Easy and Dornoch on top in the first two slots, with ALL underneath in the 3rd and 4th slots.
That is; 1,5/ 1,5/ 2,4,7,9/ 2,4,7,9 ($5.00 super p/w wager, cost $60.00)
In the event Le Dom Bro and Dancing Groom manage to finish in the 3trd and 4th, the payout would be substantial.
Edit to say, “In the event Le Dom Bro and Dancing Groom manage to finish in the 3rd and 4th slots, the payout would be substantial.
Locked, Victory Formation….and Nysos all scratched….
Where did you see that Nysos was scratched, Matthew? Not showing up as such on DRF entries.
I will answer my own question! I see it’s posted on Bloodhorse.
I wonder why he was taken out …I wonder if Sadler DID feel bamboozled, and had hard feelings…well it’s a moot point …Bob says they’re heading for the SA Derby next month I stead….
Eskendereya passed away from heart disease on March 01.
By Giants Causeway out of Aldebaren Light (Seattle Slew) was foaled in February 2007. His racing career was cut short after a soft tissue injury while training for the Kentucky Derby. 6 starts, 4 wins and 1 place and earnings of $725,700. Most notable wins were the Wood Memorial and Fountain of Youth.
In 2011 he entered standing at stud at Taylor Made. In 2016 he was sold to JBBA and stood at stud at Shizunai Stallion Station.
Sad news. Thanks for letting us know, Lynda.
You are most welcome.
He was my favorite going into 2010 Derby. It was very disappointing that he suffered the injury.
I think he could have won both the Derby and the Preakness.
It was indeed. He had real talent.
I’m so sorry to hear that. He was a favorite of mine, too. I too expected great things from him in the Triple Crown races, and I’m still convinced he would have provided them. I hope he left some good offspring in Asia.
Thanks Linda! Sad news for sure.
Todd Pletcher in past five years has stepped up maiden winners into graded stakes twenty-six times……zero winners ….
Debut maiden winners, that is …
Just read that Pletcher did not like the way Locked looked this morning during a gallop.
Glad it’s not another fever, Lynda. Given that the horse has been scratched twice in a row, I have a feeling that Locked is no longer a major player on the Derby trail.
Thanks for posting this.
Ms B, agree the colt is no longer a player for the Derby.
I am somewhat concerned about Victory Avenue. Not cleaning up food last night and this morning and standing in the corner of his stall does indicate something is amiss. One of the first signs of a horse being sick is not eating.
Hope all is well with both.
The derby status of Locked is now in question after his scratch from the FOY. Hoping it’s minor and Locked will be ok. He will have a hard time hitting the board in his next race after coming off such a long layoff.
Locked and Victory Avenue scratched from FOY.
How unfortunate.
I would suspect if he ( Locked ) does run it will be in the Wood Memorial. Will not count him out yet because of his running style.
Gustavo Delgado S
@GDS_Racing
·
34m
This AM we had to scratch Victory Avenue from today’s FOY.
VA is normally a high energy, feel good colt. He does not have a fever & externally is fine, But he didn’t eat his feed last night/this AM and is a bit quiet. Horse comes first, we’ll monitor him & proceed accordingly.
What’s the reason for Locked withdrawal?
So far no report as to why, at least that I have seen.
See above.
My wager of the day –
JOHN BATTAGLIA MEMORIAL – KATHEEB
A Argentinian 6-year-old son of California Chrome named Go Chrome Go is debuting tomorrow in Dubai. He is a 5 to 1 third choice in a Group 3 race at 1200 meters.
Go Chrome Go is a big, strong (weighing about 1,200 pounds) and fast miler who exhibits a 5-streak Stakes wins at the heavy track La Plata. He has won 9 times (6 Stakes) in 12 starts always pressing the pace and should like the 6 furlongs as he has won at 7 and 8 furlong and no horse at La Plata has been in front of him at the 6 furlong post.
The race is the Mahab Al Shimal Stakes to be run at 10:45 Eastern Time.
I hope he can shine at Meydan like another son of California Chrome named Kabirkhan has done so far.
Go Chrome Go pulled up.
No word yet on why.
Looked to some to be a hindleg fracture.
Sad.
They won’t be breaking any track record in the Gotham but it is a good betting race… and no Easy Goers in the field remotely…
The pace set up will likely favor closers or strong stalkers.
Wheeling 11 Lightline for 1st, 2nd and 3rd with
3 Deterministic/7 El Grande O/8 Bergen/10 Just a Touch/13 Capital Idea sounds like a capital idea for a superfecta bet.
Love any reference to Easy Goer! Holds a special place in my heart.
Are the accolades regarding Conquest Warrior’s AOC win over the top or deserving? Let’s compare the #14 ranked colt to the #1 ranked using two races over similar distances.
CONQUEST WARRIOR – $1,000,000
2ND Start – MSW 8F – 24.00; 46.84; 1:12.17; 1:38.57 – Pinched back at the start; Steadied approaching lane; angled out; rallied.
3RD Start 9F AOC —-23.79; 47.6, 1:12.26; 1:37.54 1:50.52 – tracked off the pace; Drew off whilst ridden Out.
SIERRA LEONE – $2,300,000
1ST Start – MSW 8F – 23.53; 47.29, 1:1.80; 1:36.54 1:50.52 – Bobbled at break; 5W top of lane; taken in hand close home.
2ND Start – 9F Remsen – 23.09; 46.97, 1:11.56; 1:37.42; 1:50.30 – Trailed by 12L; 7W top of lane; drifted to rail late.
Given the comparison above, I contend the comments regarding Conquest Warrior’s AOC win should be more measured and less exaggerated. For those to whom speed figures bear significant relevance. Conquest Warrior was assigned an Equibase 85 for his AOC win. Sierra Leone was assigned an 89 for his MSW win. He was assigned a 98 & 99 for his two 9F graded stakes performances. That is 14 & 15 points higher than Conquest Warrior’s 9F win.
The two colts are ranked miles apart and whilst, Conquest Warrior is likely to gain an upgrade in the rankings. I consider some of the accolades are undeserving at this time. The numbers neither support the reality nor the speculation.
The beauty about free speech it doesn’t have to be measured or make sense.
Nice analysis but it is flawed as we are talking 2 different race tracks and 2 different racing surfaces. If we were talking the same racing surfaces it would be a better comparison. But like you said the beauty is free speech to each his own.
These recitations of partial pp’s are incomplete, and hard to follow compared to real pp’s.
Did you see him, coming down the lane with Jose just sitting there?…He looks so solidly built…..and I love a Thoroughbred with a small head!…He screams Derby Winner!….
Sometimes free speech sounds more like a Banjo. I side with Twain on this. “A gentleman is someone who knows how to play the banjo and doesn’t.” ― Mark Twain.
The spectacular debut of Speak Easy brought back memories of other scintillating winning debutants.
Many of you may recall all the hype about a regally bred colt named Pulpit. The debut of the son of A.P. Indy on January 11, 1997 at Gulfstream was a powerful display of talent. He won by 7.5 lengths in a superb time of 1:21.98 … you can understand why this old remembrance came to me when I saw the 1:21.96 ran by his great grandson Speak Easy debuting also in January, with identical speed and at the same racetrack too. How can I avoid falling for hype with those uncanny coincidences?
Pulpit’s second start (on Feb. 8) was an 1 1/16-mile Allowance win wire to wire by 7 lengths another remarkable time of 1:42 flat. After that exploit he automatically became the future book Derby favorite. Pulpit was a real threat to Apollo’s course…
When asked about the extraordinary Beyer speed figures of 108 in his debut and 107 for the Allowance race, the stoic trainer Frank Brothers came up with a farsighted statement when he said that his colt “can run with almost frightening speed, but Derby horses are often ambushed by demons unknown”. It was one of the most eloquent ways to describe the nature of the grinding Derby trail.
Pulpit’s standing as a Derby favorite was reinforced by winning the Fountain of Youth in another outstanding timing of 1:41 4/5. It was the third fastest FoY time behind those of Sensitive Prince and Spectacular Bid eighteen years prior. It was reassuring that Pulpit was able to rate and still win with his usual flair. However, that tactic did not work in his runner up effort in the Florida Derby as the 2/5 favorite. He won the Blue Grass and got injured while finishing 4th in the Derby.
You may understand my fixation with striking 7 furlong-debuts if you were to recall the first starts of Personal Ensign (1: 22 4/5), Curlin (1:22 1/5 on a February 3rd), Justify (1:21 4/5 on a February 18th).
Back to Speak Easy, I do not recall Todd Pletcher taking a maiden winner straight to Stakes. His modus operandi is trying Allowances before deciding to step up to Stakes company… so, his confidence in the son of Constitution must be 10 times normal.
Anyway, the powerhouse of Pletcher stable could be flaunted in all its glory tomorrow with Speak Easy winning against more seasoned rivals; but I would wait for at least 3 starts to better rate his stardome potential.
I don’t expect any shocking surprise in the Fountain of Youth. My superfecta reads:
1 Speak Easy/ 3 Victory Avenue/ 5 Dornoch
1 Speak Easy/ 3 Victory Avenue/ 5 Dornoch
1 Speak Easy/ 3 Victory Avenue/ 5 Dornoch/4 Real Macho/8 Locked
/ 3 Victory Avenue/ 4 Real Macho/8 Locked/9 Dancing Groom
Safe trips and good luck to everyone!
*I do not recall Todd Pletcher taking a maiden winner straight to Stakes. ”
POSTED BELOW:
‘In the last 5 years Tod Pletcher is 2 for 34 when running 3YOs back in graded stakes after breaking their maiden. – NYRA Analyst.’
Tireless – Last out MSW winner next contested the 2024 (G3) Sam Davis.
A litany of 2YO debut winners have contested stakes such as the Champagne Saratoga Special and others.
Thanks for the reminder.
I should go deeper into Pletcher prospects beyond the most recognizable ones he’s had in the Triple Crown trail…
The sensational 2 year old Justify colt, Storm Boy, thunders home at Royal Randwick to win the Sky High prep race for the Golden Slippers Stakes on March 23, the first stage of the 2 year old Triple Crown in Australia. ‘The Slipper’ at 5 million (Aus) is richest race for 2 year olds the world over.
Justify’s stud career, thus far, is just extraordinary.
Ha ha it was actually the Skyline Stakes that Storm Boy won on Saturday.
Skyline and Sky High were full brothers, they both won the Golden Slipper Stakes and both were imported to stand in the US at stud.
Correct! However,unlike ‘Goodman’ never painted ruse of texting back and forth with Bob. Lol
Conquest Warrior has zero points…..and he looks like a Derby winner …
That’s an assertion made without the colt running against serous competition. They all look impressive against overmatched opponents.
Conquest Warrior reminded me again of Forego….and also Fusiachi Pegasus today—he will have one chance to make the Derby, Shug is taking a conservative approach….
Overreaction? Or do you see another Justify?
6f split at 1:12 and change.
Justify ‘s debut run was the best I ever saw…..it wouldn’t take another Justify to win the 2024 Derby—Conquest Warrior looks like he’s going to relish 10 furlongs, and he was quickly pulled up, there’s more in the tank—they saved it for The Florida Derby…..
Matthew, good insight! Seems talented,easy win for him today.
Conquest Warrior looked like a Derby horse in his allowance win today at Gulfstream. He’s a gorgeous animal with an immense stride. Looking forward to seeing him in the Florida Derby.
Yes indeed, Conquest Warrior went by my horse, Merit, like he was standing still. Hats off to Steve for having CW in his Derby Rankings, positioned at #14. No doubt he’ll move up several spots in Steve’s Week 7 Rankings.
I thought Merit might go gate to wire, but he tired in the stretch. What Saffie Joseph Jr. plans to do with Merit is anybody’s guess.
The way he tired going 9 furlongs, you would think he’s off the Derby trail.
Not to second guess Joseph, but the FOY, at 8.5 furlongs, might have been the better choice for Merit. But it is what it is.
I was about to write that Steve was the only one foreseeing the potential of Conquest Warrior… the son of City of Light was not even mentioned in the myriad of videos and links about Derby prospects popping up in my desktop.
Not sure if you have scanned through some of the other line ups out there but it seems to me like Conquest Warrior is another “exclusive” courtesy of Steve Haskin’s Derby Rankings…
Now I see Conquest Warrior as Forego’s clon or Forego’s Ghost forever…
I agree, Ms. Blacktype. Conquest Warrior is a beautiful creature. Couldn’t help but notice his beautiful tail flowing in the breeze as he won well within himself. He’ll be a force to be reckoned with in the Florida Derby. Things are really starting to get interesting.
“He’ll be a force to be reckoned with in the Florida Derby.”
Are you asserting that that the mighty Fierceness will have his colors lowers again?
I would suggest that the talented Fierceness has issues with his mind as we are now not sure of what to expect from race to race. A great horse has to show consistency.
The first non Baffert 3yo to impress me this year.
There’s several.
Only three horses show up for the Patton Stakes at Dundalk, a European Road to the Kentucky Derby event. Coolmore’s entry Navy Seal (4/5on) who had some qualification points from the first event finished dead last. The winner Bergamasco, has bit of US in his blood through Speightstown, but I don’t think thats going to help him qualify…
I am neither a Thoro-Graph nor Beyer figure individual. From my perspective these numbers and figures are meaningless. Let me hasten to state that my perspective isn’t an indictment of those who consider these numbers as significant measures of performance.
For some folks Speed Figures is the hill they will die on. Why do I consider Thoro-Graph and Beyer figures meaningless? Probably out of ignorance. One is a fool to what one doesn’t know. But despite my perspective on the number/figures. I have kept a few receipts that have made me more convinced not to make them my focus.
Rich Strike:
He finished 3rd in the Jeff Ruby. He was assigned an Equibase figure of 99. His 11th hour entry into the 2022 KD resulted in a win. He was assigned an Equibase figure of 97. When I compared the two figures, I immediately concluded it had to be a poor attempt at a joke.
How can a win in the G1 KD, the biggest dirt race in the world for 3YOs, yield a lower number than a 3rd place finish by 5 3/4 in the G3 Jeff Ruby? Further, how can Rich Strike’s Jeff Ruby 99 and Epicenter’s LA Derby 102 resulted in one KD entrant leaving the gates at 80/1 and the other the post time favorite?
Bellamy Road:
He won the 2005 Wood Memorial by 171/2L in a NSR/NTR. He was assigned a Beyer of 120. I hardly believe any other KD entrant has been assigned an equivalent or superseding number. Not only did he finish off the board in the KD, he also never won another race.
Messier
He romped to 15L victory in the 2022 Bob Lewis. He was assigned a Beye of 103, the highest assigned to any 3YO at the time. Given his Beyer, pedigree and trainer, he was immediately anointed the likely KD winner. Messier has been defeated in his 7 starts since the Bob Lewis and has never again been assigned a Beyer of 103.
Select a race card and then select the entrant in each race with the best Thoro-Graph number and highest Beyer figure. The check the result at the end of the card. It is unlikely that the entrant with best Thoro-Graph number and highest Beyer will emerge the winner of each race. In fact, very few will emerge the winner.
Speed Figueres are like religions; they rely on believers for sustainment and relevance.
“Speed Figures are like religions; they rely on believers for sustainment and relevance”.
Religion is a man-made concept to control the masses. Without religion, there would be utter chaos around the world.
From my perspective, speed figures have a purpose, as does religion.
Just my opinion, Counter Point.
Each race is an individual event contested in specific circumstances at that specific time and place. There are too many variables in each event that can not be duplicated if that event was repeated multiple times.
Speed figures are just a gauge of a horse’s abilities. Obviously, some are more talented than others. As the saying goes….”on any given Sunday” the unexpected does happen.
I am not a big fan of BSFs, purely based on final times. However, Toro-Graph numbers take into consideration several variables besides the final time.
Watching race replays provides clues of potential and poor performances.
I’m a fan of all of the Speed Figure makers, each for different reasons. That said, if the best reason that I have to bet a horse is his Speed Fig, then I’m very unlikely to make that bet. I, like many others, tried to make my own figs for a couple of years about 15 years ago. You learn a lot by trying to do it yourself. One lesson, that ultimately brought my attempt to an end, is that I’m not sure it’s possible to have great confidence in your calculated Daily Track Variant. Your Speed Figs are only as good as your variant and the Fig makers know this, which is exactly why they don’t publish their Daily Variants… imo.
All of that being said I much prefer having access to Speed Figs than not. It’s also a plus that a great many cappers seem to be overly reliant upon them. Don’t get me wrong though, I use them a lot too. I’m just pretty sure I use them much differently than most younger (or maybe more casual) cappers do.
As for Rich Strike, his Derby win was awesome visually, but he had a somewhat similar setup as Monarchos with a final time nearly 3 seconds slower. Epicenter basically ran the Congaree race and might’ve beaten Rich Strike by 7 or 8 lengths if he’d have got the first half in :47 rather than :46
That’s the main problem I see with Speed Figs in that Timeform is the only one that makes an adjustment for pace and I’m not sure that they adjust enough. I’ve tinkered with the idea, but have no clue what I’m doing either.
Just a reminder on today’s 7th race at GP. Now that Speak Easy has officially scratched and entered in the FOY, it appears that Merit and Conquest Warrior (#14 on SH’s rankings) are the main players in a field of six. I’ll go with Peter E. Blum’s homebred colt, Merit. With two Triple Crown winners in his third generation (Seattle Slew and Secretariat) on the dam side, and with Mastery as his sire, Merit appears to be the one to beat, IMO. However, the tail-female side of Conquest Warrior is loaded with class and stamina which should put him right there in the late going.
At any rate, this AOC race should be exciting to watch.
I’m hoping for a Merit win, which would put him on the Derby trail.
Safe trips to all.
The ML favorite for the Gotham is last out debut winner Just A Touch. There can be no disputes regarding the impressiveness of the Justify colt’s victory. But does his ML favorite designation represent a defiance of history?
Has there ever been a last out debut winner of the Gotham? My research has not uncovered one. But it wasn’t extensive. The record of last out MSW and Allowance winers in graded stakes on the 2023 Derby Trail is abysmal. None have emerged a winner. Two of the most highly fancied i.e., Imperial Gun and Change of Command finished off the board.
Does the above means that Just A Touch is a false ML favorite and by extension will also be a false post time favorite should the wagering so dictates? I respect history and wouldn’t use Just A Touch in the top spot. If this colt wins, his victory will propel him to a top 5 spot on the KD Trail as it will be something special.
Bergen is joint 2nd choice with Deterministic. But I am of the opinion that neither Liam’s Map’s progenies are as good as Capital Idea. Further, Capital Idea appears to possess a more proven KD pedigree.
Classic Empire the sire of Capital Idea is also the sire of Anel of Empire the 3rd place finisher in the 2023 Kentucky Derby. Capital Idea’s dam sire Distorted Humor is the dam sire Of Arrogate, Pegasus winer Art Collector and KD 5th pace finisher Practical Joke. A Distorted Humor is also the sire of KD winner Funny Cide; Haskell winner Any Given Saturday and Belmont & BCC winner Droselmeyer.
Capital Idea has arrived at the top of lane in hand in both starts. This signals an n extremely high and energy efficient cruising speed. He has displayed excellent stride extension and late race acceleration in the lane. This colt has all the attributes to be a serious KD contender.
Hey Counter Point
Your points on Capital Idea are well taken. However, if he doesn’t break well, from the far outside (p/p #13) he could find himself up against it in the early going. He has shown the ability to close impressively, but that was against smaller fields. It remains to be seen if he can close, in that same manner, against twelve other contenders.
As I mentioned in an earlier post, Deterministic has the demeanor of street fighter, which was on full display in his first out maiden win.
Both colts are trained by Christophe Clement, so it will be interesting to see which one proves the best in the Gotham Stakes.
I’ll go with Deterministic.
Good luck with Capital Idea.
With the $400,000 San Felipe (Grade II )at Santa Anita (SA) and a way for a trainer to get points for the Kentucky Derby why did the race only attract only 5 horses in which 3 of the entrants cannot earn points??? Are the other trainers so fearful of BB ?? Is Todd Pletcher missing an opportunity with Fierceness? Just seems so strange that more horses did not enter into this race. Does Baffert and Pletcher have a unspoken agreement you stay on your coast I will stay on mine? With Fierceness running his best race at SA why would TP not send his horse this way? Unless he knows exactly why ran so dismal in the Holy Bull ( it will probably revealed years from now in one of Steve Haskins … the REST OF THE STORY columns) I think he would have been better off sending Fierceness to SA for the Felipe and SA Derby then risking everything on one race in the Florida Derby. Just seems strange that so many trainers do not send their horses west were winner of the SA derby have gone on to winthe KD derby than going to Louisiana Derby which has only 2 winners in the last 100 years while runners in the SA derby have produced 19.
The Louisiana Derby has been a final Kentucky Derby prep for only 14 years. In that span, La Derby starters Mandaloun (2021) and Country House (2019j were declared winners of the Ky Derby by disqualification. La Derby starters Grindstone and Funny Cide won the Ky Derbies of 1996 and 2003, respectively, so to say only two La Derby starters have won the Ky Derby in the past 100 years is disingenuous.
Nevertheless, the situation in California is shameful.
What horses?
Excited to join the derby trail!
Looking forward to a weekend of reading Steve’s rankings and all of your thoughts.
Welcome aboard
Thanks Steve!
I was there to watch your namesake take down The Arlington Million. Mandella was sitting about 6 rows down from us. My buddy was between The Tin Man and Cacique. His famous last words as they entered the gate were, “Anybody but The Tin Man.” That’s when I pointed out Mandella to him and he said, “oh, crap.”
Cool story CLOWNSKILL. Love track memories like that.
I call myself The Tin Man because Sha Tin racing is the one circuit I’ve been beating consistently pretty big. And I tried to come up with a cool nickname that referenced that. 🙂
Spent alot of time visiting TM at Rivers Edge and later elsewhere.
Dornooch’s five half mile works for this each one faster than the one before….
I don’t know if anyone else will find this interesting or not, but this time of year I really can’t get enough Horse Racing talk. So, I guess I’ll share in the spirit of the season 🙂
A few years ago I put together a spreadsheet containing formulas that I’d developed (with a little reverse engineering) that would allow me to convert Equibase Speed Figures into thoro-graph style figures. All I have to do is type in the Equib Speed Figure along with weight carried and the path through each turn. They are mostly so close that I’m pretty confident that the differences that I do see are where the two companies differ on the Daily Track Variant. I’m working on doing the same with Bris, but I like using Equibase because they are available so soon after the race is run.
I only do it because I like having more than one opinion on the speed of a race. I’m not trying to get free Thoro-graph figures, but rather how does a Equibase 98 compare to a Thoro-Graph 4.5.
What’s interesting from a pattern perspective is that Thoro-Graph shows Sierra Leone running a 9 in the maiden race (same using conversion adjustments to Equibase), then a 4.75 in the Remsen (once again same), and finally a slight regression to 5.5 in the Risen Star. The Risen Star effort comes out 4.25 with the Equibase conversion. From a pattern perspective, this slight difference is intersting, because if Equibase has a better read on the Risen Star then Sierra Leone slightly eclipsed his 2yo Top right off the bench. If TG is right about the Risen Star, then we have that odd situation of a Derby fave marching to the top of the heap off of a regression.
I’m not going to type it all out, but when I look at Track Phantom, his career is 7, 4.75, 7.25 and 5.5 after the Equibase conversions. This more closely matches the “eye test” of his last 3 races imo. I thought the Gun Runner was his best performance of the 3, with the Risen Star an improvement over the Lecomte.
I’ll almost always accept Thoro-Graph as near gospel when it comes to Speed Figs, but when it comes to Sierra Leone I just can’t buy the regression… even though I know that the guys at TG are probably right… lol
Good thought process. Like the idea of doing that to account for weight and turns.
Hi Craig, I’m a big fan of your Derbyologist stuff on YT! Are you planning any live handicapping shows for the 100 point preps this year? How about the pedigree analysis show (loved it last year)?
I always said we have the smartest people on here. Thanks for sharing all that. Great stuff. As for Sierra Leone,as I mentioned I thought was a fluke race numbers wise because of the track, the pace, when it was run, and how different the track had to be from earlier in the day. Just look at the pace in Tuscan Sky’s race. No way there should be that big a discrepancy.
Thanks Steve, it was reading your article that inspired me to drag the spreadsheet out of moth balls and plug in this years numbers. I’m sure that over the years you’ve heard/or read someone say “This years Derby picture is as clear as mud”. Well that’s pretty much the way I always feel on the Derby Trail. There is so many data points and second guessing going on in my brain that by Derby Day I think they should all be 19-1 🙂
You apparently have had this same affliction. I say that because your articles are like a much needed weekly therapy session that brings (or at least tries to bring) order to the chaos of the overloaded mind of Derby Trail ‘capper.
I can tell by the many comments that your musings are just the tonic for all of your loyal followers. Then, of course, it all turns to mud once again between Saturday night and the Tuesday morning therapy session. Thank you so much for your love and dedication to this great sport and it’s annual trip down the Derby Trail!
Thank you so much for the kind words, Jim. I really appreciate it.
The Fountain of Youth has been a traditional prep for the Derby hopefuls traveling the Florida route but its weak harvest of Derby winners has proven that two months is still a long way to go.
In 70 years of FoY history only 6 of its winners went on to also win the Derby (ORB, THUNDER GULCH, SPECTACULAR BID, KAUAI KING and TIM TAM). All except Kauai King had also won the Florida Derby.
In contrast, for the same period, there were 15 Florida Derby/Kentucky Derby dual winners …
The last great horse winning the FoY was Spectacular Bid (1979).
Derby winners who could not win the FoY since 1979 were Pleasant Colony (2nd), Swale (3rd), Unbridled (3rd), Go For Gin (2nd) and Mage (4th).
The tally of favored horses in the FoY this century reads 8 wins, 5 seconds, 4 thirds, 2 fourths and 4 off board finishes.
The last 3 winners of the FoY were favorites and the only double-digit winning payouts this century were frontrunners Songandaprayer and Promises Fulfilled both at 18-1.
So, the FoY results have been pretty much on the expected side. However, I would like to mention few historical unexpected performances by some notable favorites.
A big disappointment was Swale’s third-place finish in the 1984 Fountain of Youth behind 39-1 Darn that Alarm. It was a forgivable hiccup as he went on to win the Florida Derby, Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes. An untimely shocking death was the only thing that could prevent him from eventually entering the Hall of Fame.
Champion Rhythm finished 10th as the 5-2 second choice in the 1990 FoY. The winner was the 25-1 longshot Shot Gun Scott with future Derby winner Unbridled in 3rd. Rhythm had also came short in his prior sophomore debut (7th in the Hutcheson) and next out (5th in the Gotham). Then Shug McGaughey decided to take a pause on Rhythm to resolve the issues bothering him. The savvy trainer was rewarded when Rhythm won the Travers closing from last to defeat Shot Gun Scott (at 55-1) by 3 ½ lengths.
In 1994 Holy Bull had breathing impediment in the homestretch of the FOY and finished last as the odds-on favorite. Warren Croll Jr. was mulling over taking Holy Bull off the Derby trail but a subsequent fast workout (7F in 1:23) encouraged him to run the big gray in the Florida Derby… and Holy Bull’s Hall of Fame run was underway …
In 1996 Unbridled’s Song was defeated by a 143 to 1 longshot named Built for Pleasure.
In the 2018 edition champion Good Magic could not do better than 3rd behind sprinter Promises Fulfilled and Swale Stakes winner Strike Power.
Both Unbridled’s Song and Good Magic won their next Stakes and ran well in the Derby.
In this edition Dornoch is the well-deserved 2-1 favorite. His gritty and determined running style allows him to rate (as he did in his debut and in the Sapling) and win the FoY … it would be a kind of vindication for his sire who failed his sophomore debut in the same race.
Boy, that’s quite a history lesson Nelson. Thank you for sharing.
Thanks for your reply Steve… really appreciate it.
I am just trying to keep the historical tone in my contributions here … I know that, as a historian, you would like taking fans down memory lane…
Unconscious was the 1971 Derby favorite, and Agitate was 1974 Derby 2nd choice…..but back before Bob and Wayne Lukas the west didn’t have many Derby contenders …outside of Bob’s horses this year looks like all eastern horses, not unlike the 70s…..
Hey Matthew: Up until the 1950’s Derby winners from the west coast were pretty scarce.
In 1954 there was Determine, 1955 there was the immortal Swaps, In 1965 we had Lucky Debonair & in 1969 we had the great Majestic Prince. Then of course D. Lukas & Baffert began their reign of winners. The 1980’s were good for west coast runners, Ferdinand, Alesheba & Sunday Silence.
I believe the playing has pretty much evened out the past 15-20 years. Back in the early days it was expensive to ship a horse back east plus the wear and tear on the horse.
To me, this years Derby feels empty when many of the west coast horses are not able to compete.
Horse racing is becoming more & more fractured every season.
Slow race times, lightly raced horses, injuries & breakdowns happening at an alarming rate & poor leadership in our sport.
This season, for me the best horse I have seen so far on the Derby Trail is Maynum and he won’t be able to run.
Have a great day Matthew…….. oh how I miss Hollywood Park!!!
Me as well, Deacon, Hollywood Park so close to the airport, where so many shippers would arrive, to challenge the western based horses, the horsemen preferred Hollywood Park, as well….and that turf course—uphill the last 100 yards, a closer’s paradise!
Yep, I remember that turf coursr. I remember Rober Wheelers horse Quilche whom I made some big bucks on. He was a very good turf horse.
Watching Dahlia winning there as well I believe. Quacks 10 furlong track record. All the track & world records set at Hollywood Park by Swaps.
My favorite all time horse Dr. Fager flying in on Thursday, winning the Californian Stakes on Saturday in 1:40 & change with 130 lbs, then flying out on Sunday.
Laker games, USC football, UCLA basketball, USC baseball managed by the HOF great Rod Dedeaux.
Can’t forget Lew Alcindor, Bill Walton, Gail Goodrich, Walt Hazzard, etc.
It was a great time in history a childhood. Plus the beaches, me being an old time surfer.
I was born in San Francisco, was a big Dons fan, Kevin Restani, Phil Smith…..later Cartwright, Boynes, and James Hardy my favorite player—we moved to SoCal in ’69, and I remain in awe of Wooden, Newell and those Bruins juggernauts! Alcindor then Walton, two unbeaten seasons then Bill was a hippy and they lost four times! Swept in the Willamette Valley….saw Coach Dadeaux and #1 Trojans beat Chapman College at Hart Park in Orange, after completing my paper route, 4+3 final Chapman was good….
Matthew W- I remember watching Bill Walton in high school (Helix High/San Diego). He was a big awkward and gangling red head at that time.
No Jerry West? No Elgin Baylor? Some of us still remember Hollypark with fond memories….like the Goose Girl in the infield or Century Boulevard.
Or perhaps Zenyatta’s home base, the wins by Laffit Pincay, Jr., the leadership of Marje Everett, JO Tobin’s win over Seattle Slew, the match races of Miss Musket and Chris Evert or Convenience and Typecast, the first ever BC races in 1984…does anyone really remember that the last racing day in Hollypark’s history (2013/the 10th race that day) featured a horse named California Chrome in the California Cup that he won and then went on to win the San Felipe, Santa Anita Derby, Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes?
But perhaps my biggest memory of Hollypark can in 1973…the Shoe, Mary Jone, Cougar II, Kennedy Road and Quack in the Hollypark Gold Cup….enough said.
I saw Jerry West play one time, at a pre season double header, we took the bus which meant we were stuck for two full games…..went to see Rick Barry and they say him, in game one…..second game West made a winning shot at the final buzzer, my dad was happy for that! Next morning LA Times headline Jerry West retired, just before the 74-75 season, we saw his final game—and the Warriors and Barry? They won it all that season…..
Sat him, not say him…..
RE: GP, 7th race, Friday, Mar. 1st (AOC, 1 1/16)
1) Merit, 5-1
2) Nomos, 12-1
3) Speak Easy, 3/5
4) Secret Lover, 30-1
5) Raguel, 12-1
6) Conquest Warrior, 5/2
7) Tapit Three Times, 20-1
Per The Local Seth, Pletcher has confirmed that Speak Easy will run in the FOY. That being the case, Conquest Warrior will undoubtedly become the post time favorite.
I hope connections enter PANDAGATE in a KD prep race
The long stride on that colt. He looked like he could run all day.
Yes Clownskill. He’s a beauty ! I asked connections on X if his next race will be in a KD prep race. They responded with a Like.
I have been stufying him this week, saw he worked with Deterministic. He’s a beast with an amazing surge. For such a big horse he juat glides. He will by in KOTD next week. Just dont know how good he is because he hasnt faced anything. Waiting on his Thoro-Graph numbers buT i suspect they will be slow.
Thanx Steve
Gotham Stakes, P/P and morning line odds.
1) Khanate, 30-1
2) Maximus Meridius, 20-1
3) Deterministic, 9/2 (my pick)
4) Facenda, 50-1
5) Deposition, 50-1
6) Air Cav, 30-1
7) El Grande O, 8-1
8) Bergen, 9/2
9) Eliminate, 15-1
10) Just a Touch, 5/2 (favorite)
11) Lightline, 8-1
12) Slider, 8-1
13) Capital Idea, 12-1
Safe trips to all.
I’m on that 50-1!….
Which one? Facenda is listed at 50-1, and Deposition is listed at 50-1.
Deposition!..Big improvement and solid work…
I always apply a different approach to handicapping Todd Pletcher’s race entrants. Why? I consider him the most dangerous trainer in America.
Mr. Dangerous has two entrants in the Gotham i.,e., Khanate and Eliminate. It is likely that Khanate will be the lesser fancied of the two. But he is the one on which I am focused.
Calumet Farm the owner of Khanate is renowned for having what on paper appears to be misplaced race entrants. Some of their perceived misplaced entrants have surprised big time. See below:
2021 – Bourbonuic – Won Wood at 72/1
2019 -Holy Bull – Everfast 2nd @128/1
2019 – Preakness – Everfast 2nd @29/1
2019 – BCJ (Turf)- Gear Jockey 0 3rd 7/1 (as a maiden)
Are we in store for another surprise in the 2024 Gotham? Well, it is my hope that he will be able to finish on the bard. Thus, providing for big payouts in the exotics.
Khanate in by Hightail a son of Mineshaft, the sire of note for Saudi Cup winner Senor Boscador. Hightail stands for $7,500 at Calumet Farm. It is therefore no surprise that in an act of stallion support, Calumet farm purchased a progeny ($35,000) of one of their stallions for little over 4 times its stud fee.
After being beaten by a combined 20 1/1L in his first two over 6F & 6 1/2F at Saratoga, Khanate was switched to Keeneland. He won a MSW by 10 1/2L over 7F at juicy 7/1. A 6th place finish would follow at CD. He made his stakes debut in the 8 1/2F Jerome (Black Type) and was on the receiving end of an 11 1/4L shellacking from Drum Roll Plese. That 3 of 4 finish led to the 9F Wither where he finished 5th.
In Khanate last 3 starts heading into the Gotham, he was defeated by a combined 21 1/4L. Say what! Then what is he doing in the Gotham? There are absolutely no positive reasons for this colt to be an entrant in the Gotham. Is the trainer and connections of this colt jut taking a shot?
Two things merit mentioning in Khanate last 3 starts.
(1) He displayed excellent tactical speed to be forwardly placed, only to weaken late.
(2) The blinkers were part of his headgear for all 3 starts.
Notables for the Gotham:
The blinkers have been removed. This could have the effect of causing the colt to be more resolute in the lane.
There have been no reported Breeze since the colt’s February 3rd start. The colt has been obviously working. However, given his tactical speed, stamina training via long gallops could have been the strategy heading into the Gotham.
I consider the removal of the blinkers and no breeze in approximately 30 days to be significant factors. These factors along with Pletcher’s High Octane pe-race concoction, could but on display a totally different colt in the Gotham.
He will be my lonshot palt in all positions. – Dreams are free!
Happy B-day, you longshot lover! I like Deposition, in The Gotham….40-1 sounds about right! Your kind of play! Big improvement, in latest Withers run ..never quit trying AND worked super since! Three year olds can and do jump up in firm this time in their lives, and he’s by Constitution…..
EDIT
2019 – BCJ (Turf)- Gear Jockey 3rd 67/1 (as a maiden)
Love playing long shots in one turn miles, especially when they are just coming into their own! I was pretty high on LightLine, who has run two respectable races in a row and just had a really nice work on 2/23. But is it a bad sign that Chad Brown is pulling Manny Franco off to ride Bergen? I think this race will have some pace, and LightLine’s recent work indicates he will get position early from 11 post and stalk it. He showed closing kick in recent 2 races, but his defeat to Carbone isn’t really looking all that flattering anymore… Worth a punt at 8/1 though…
Well, Baffert pulled it off as expected. Suckered two guys into entering to make sure the race goes and then dropped his bombshell putting Nysos in at the last minute along with two others. This after Santa Anita listed only 3 lesser horses of his as possibles. Totally screws Scatify who would have left town. But I guess he did what he had to do to make sure the race filled. I’m sure Scatify’s connections not thrilled by being lured into staying in California.
Ganster move!
On the bright side if Scatify runs 2nd he’ll only need to finish third in his final prep to get in. Just hope he’s competitive. He still has two other Bafferts to deal with.
If CDI were half-clever(sic) they would have advised that the points would be allocated as though the Baffert horses weren’t in the race. You might have even got some Eastern shippers come over to swell the race.
Baffert out-Pokered them.
Steve, where did you see the entries? Nothing posted on the Santa Anita site as of 9:15 a.m. And who are the other two Baffert horses? Thanks!
The horses have entered, they just havent drawn post positons because of the possible postponement to Sunday. So no overnights out yet. Wine Me Up and Imagination other two Bafferts. McVay (Shirreffs) final horse.
Steve I’m going! Am planting myself in front of Mc Vay! This maiden can run some, a Nysos–Mc Vay exacta could pay 12-1, and I’ll get a close-up on Nysos….Sadler, whom I think deserves a place in the Hall of Fame….shipped his turf sprinter east for a Gotham drubbing….and gets a big look at Nysos ‘s tail on Sunday, but this trainer of Flightline, Accelerate and Melair knows how to handle a good horse….
He wasnt expecting Nysos
Thanks for the intel, Steve. I believe Scatify has a pretty good shot against those two Baffert trainees. Should be a great race.
Well, “if you can’t beat them-then join them”, as the saying goes. Or you can pull a Churchill Downs and just ban Baffert because you don’t like what he does, legal or not.
Question-what happens now to Muth? And regarding Scatify, I read that Sadler was comtemplating running him in the Tampa Bay Derby.
That said, I get the feeling if Baffert entered Nysos in the Gotham perhaps three or four horses would be entered as well with the Fountain of Youth maybe horse or two more..
When I attended the 2021 Malibu Bob walked up and stood with Sadler, as Flightline was walking around the saddling barn, and he never returned to his horse he stayed with John and they looked close….I hope there’s nothing between them, it’s a Derby prep but the Preakness is only 14 days later….
An undefeated colt with Nysos, going into Preakness will be exciting for the rest of the nation to watch. West coast does get spoiled with highest of quality dirt horses each year.
Pretend all you need,however BB lives for the Derby. Quote sometime ago, “no one remembers Preakness”. What happened
to Prince of Monaco? Just another ‘ world beater’ in holding pattern…..or worse.
Nysos and Maymun are collectively 1st and 3rd in the Preakness betting choices. Both Muth and Maymun are laying in the weeds to collect more KD points more preferably outside California
A race that originally was the biggest purse in the country, The Santa Anita Handicap has a $400K purse in 2024— there’s a 50% chance of showers beginning at 5pm, and it could be cancelled? Monday they would be the big racing draw….
It is sad, Matthew, that the Big Cap has fallen in stature. The ghost of Seabisquit cries. Just another sign that California racing is on the decline. Solutions???
None, Dewey….simply none ….Cali government will never allow casino gambling…they want racing to die on the vine…and it is….Dubai began the swift decline of “The hardest race in America to win”, per Mr Burch…..a list of all time greats dots the Big Cap history, up until around Tiznow—- the Pacific Classic is now the biggest race in California, followed by The Santa Anita Derby and, what….The Malibu? Sad, very very sad….because there’s no pathway back, in a one party state that hates Horse Racing..
It appears that Todd Pletcher and Saffie Joseph Jr. are waiting to see who blinks first. Both trainers have colts cross entered in the FOY and an AOC race on Friday, 3-1. This has all the appearances of a Mexican Standoff.
What the hell is the hold up on this decision as to where we will see Merit and Speak Easy?
Speak Easy confirmed for FOY per Pletcher
Thanks, Seth.
ELIMINATE/SPEAK EASY
In the last 5 years Tod Pletcher is 2 for 34 when running 3YOs back in graded stakes after breaking their maiden. – NYRA Analyst.
The above doesn’t inspire confidence in TP’s two last out MSW winner in the Gotham and FOY
Santa Anita may postpone Saturday’s big cap card with rain in 1975 I had to beg my grandfather to drive in pouring rain to see the muddiest big cap stardust Mel beat mud loving out of the east in a super tight photo finish in 1978 vigors and his big cap win is a must see on you tube won he had been a turf horse but wound up trying dirt with rains and the rest is history
I used to ride my three-speed Schwinn bike 15 miles to Los Alamitos, in the early 70s, and go into the backstretch and hang out….all kinds of stuff….Dusty dirt between the long barns of shed row—until you got to the freshly painted barns, with large green and white banners of “DWL”—The Wayne Lukas barn area, and no dirt—it was all neatly rolled greed sod, between barns, so clean and tidy….people say— me, as well—Wayne runs his stock too often…..but another thing about his operation is his horses always stood out as best looking…back on the early 70s he had all Quarter Horses, including the grey mate Native Empress, who was the greatest horse out of the gate I ever saw, she always came out in front of the pack….last Saturday I saw a couple of claimers at Gulfstream…one was 8 for 13 the other was 5 for 13—-last year…. today people consider 13 starts too many but when Wayne came up in the sport it was called Horse Racing….
Great story! I’ll bet you wish Secretariat had flown out to California for a run and you could have shot the breeze with Eddie Sweat back then.
I remember back in the 1960’s my dad would drive out to Santa Anita to watch the harness races. He loved to bet these standard breds, both totters & pacers. He loved a horse named Adios Butler & I was very fond of a horse named Widower Creed. Both horses were pacers. There was also Su Mac Lad & Speedy Scot who were trotters. Stanley Dancer (driver), Meadow Skipper & of course one of the best in Bret Hanover..
Those were the best days I had with my dad.
I remember the great Albatross, at Hollywood Park nighttime Racine, he always won!…
Looking forward to the TB Derby on 3-9. Not giving up on my 74-1 KDFW3 bomb Ari’s Magic. Ari finished a dull 5th last out in an Allow. but watching the replay I’m drawing a line through the race. Ari stumbled at the break then was slammed be the horse to his left which either knocked him off stride or maybe knocked the wind out of him. Ari was ultra impressive in his MSW win and I’m hoping he can return to that form. I checked the stakes nominations for the TB Derby and there are no standouts that were nominated. A good second in the TB Derby would get AM 25 points and there’s plenty of choices for a big 100 point to the winner prep in April. My other KDFW bet is Liberal Arts. LA is back on the worktab and is pointing to the ARK Derby where he will try to turn the tables on Mystik Dan and possibly collide with Timberlake. IMO LA is better suited to longer distances than MD or Timberlake. I bet both of my KDFW horses $40 W and put a strong EX Box with the field.
A full field of 13 horses will compete in the G3 Gotham (50 Derby points)
1) Khanate
2) Maximus Meridius
3) Deterministic
4) Facenda
5) Deposition
6) Air Cav
7) El Grande O
8) Bergen
9) Eliminate
10) Just a Touch
11) Lightline
12) Slider
13) Capital Idea
I’m hoping for a big performance by Deterministic ($40.00 to win in Derby Futures Pool 3, at 99-1)
Deterministic is a very nice colt in the hands of a world class trainer.
Hey Counter Point
We don’t always agree, but we’re in lock step with your take on Deterministic and Christophe Clement.
Deterministic has all the appearances of a street fighter, that was on full display in the late stages of his maiden win. Clement put him on the shelve for a few months, but since returning to regular spaced works on January 13th, three of those were bullets.
It doesn’t hurt to have Joel Rosario back aboard the son of Liam’s Map for his class test.
Hi Steve,
I am a big fan of Mendelssohn Bay who won the UAE 2000 Guineas. He opted to skip last weekend’s Al Bastakiya S. at Meydan to train up to the UAE Derby. He is Triple Crown nominated, so I suspect he would go to Louisville if he collects enough points in the UAE Derby on Dubai World Cup day.
Do you have him on your radar, Steve? Will you be previewing the UAE Derby the week before the race?
Thanks for this blog and for all you do to make it a fun-read as well as a must-read.
greg (Fan of Damascus . . . and horses with Damascus in their pedigree)
Hi Greg, I’m still rying to come to terms with those huge front bandages he wears. But he doees look like he wants to go farther than a mile. I’m sure I will be mentioning him before the UAE Derby
Thanks Steve for the reply and for keeping abreast of all KY Derby contenders regardless of where they race.
greg (Fan of Damascus)
Steve, I have futures bets on Otello and Knightsbridge and I’m not sure if they’re even on the Derby trail at this point.
Otello put in a dull effort in the Holy Bull and it wouldn’t surprise me if Monsieur Clement switched him to the turf instead of continuing to try to make the Derby.
Knightsbridge under the astute care of Bill Mott has 4 works so far this year and seems to be getting sharp but he hasn’t been entered in a race yet, let alone a prep race.
Can you tell me what the plans might be for these two? I was thinking maybe the Tampa Bay Derby? Thanks for any info you can dig up.
I too, have a future wager on Knightsbridge.
Steve, do you have any info at all on Mott’s plans for him?
Hopefully Dewey and I will both be happy with your answer.
David
Knightsbridge had a slight setback and is just now getting back to breezing. I strongly doubt you;ll see him in the Derby
Dewey, Otello is being pointed for the Jeff Ruby Steaks and is still on the Derby trail. That has become a live race the past couple of years
Thanks for the reply, Steve. Good to hear that Otello is still on the Derby trail. He deserves another shot and with his turf breeding he should fare well on the artificial surface at Turfway. As for Knightsbridge, it is no surprise that Bill Mott is taking his time with getting him ready to return to the races. Patience on Bill’s part is, of course, in the best interest of the horse. I really feel that he will be contending for 3 yo honors by the end of the year. Hope he makes it to the Travers. Thanks again for the updates, Steve.
Just a note on Slider (Sadler/Gotham)…his work of 59.00 three days ago was the best of 121, following a 59.40 just ten days ago which was the #2 out of 121 again.
Jose Lexcano, who won the Gotham last year, is scheduled to ride Slider.
Hmmmm………
He has proven hes a very fast horse. He runs :21 and :44 fractions so his work is no surprise.
Great article Steve,
I have resigned myself to the fact that we have very slow horses this year that are eligible to the Kentucky Derby. They are lightly raced and show that preparation in their races. The best so far that are eligible are closers and that means they will need a ton of racing luck. This could be the year for something new, Japan maybe?
Sierra Leone runs his race every time, 3 times only.
Fierceness is what he is, an inconsistent horse who will be lightly raced and a guess work going forward.
Maybe some one will jump up in the next/last Prep race and have us excited.
I would like that very much, other wise the Derby will be a crowded Grade 3 race that should offer Value to the bettor.
I look forward to your next article and insights next week!
Addendum please, as I forgot to mention that I love the Track Variant in the DRF. It is my go to choice. Not a huge fan of Speed Figures per say, other than as a guide to Company kept.
Do you care to list the slow horses that are in the upper echelon of the division?
who is leading the japan points part of this thing right now and are they nominated types. same for that silly UK points leader horse. any coolmore horse that just might take a shot if they get in on the UK series of races? thanks! such great info reading a third time now!
Ramjet is leading Forever Young in the Japanese point’s system and Ramjet has been nominated. If you go to ‘Kentucky Derby’ website all the points standings are there.
FIERCENESS:
Steve Haskin deserves credit for is unyielding support for captioned colt. But it appears his support has a light coating of doubt. I have long dismissed Fierceness as a serious player in KD, #150.
An interesting assertion is contained in the colt’s overview. See Below:
“Unfortunately we haven’t seen his kind of brilliance from anyone since the Breeders Cup.”
Is it being asserted that Nysos’ demolition of opponents by 7 1/2L in the Bob Lewis with his rider motionless doesn’t equate to or supersedes Fierceness’ BCJ performance. Equibase figure for BCJ inner 110; B Lewis winner 115
Mystik Dan’s explosive 8L win in the Southwest was assigned a figure of 110 which is the same figure assigned for Fierceness’ BCJ win.
Neither the Bob Lewis nor the Southwest were Red Flag races. Fierceness’ impressive win in the BCJ was a major Red Flag performance.
The performances of Nysos and Mystik Dam certainly challenges the assertion that we haven’t seen Fierceness’ kind of brilliance since the BCJ.
If you want to compare Nysos beating his own stablemate who Fierceness beat by 29 lengths inthe BC and a maiden sprint winner with one start in a grade 3 race, and Mystik Dan winning a grade 3 in the slop over Just Steel on a rail biased track with Fierceness trouncing Muth, Locked, and Timberlake in the Juvenile, getting a 105 Beyer, go right ahead. I like Mystik Dan a lot, having him ranked No. 4. I responded to your comment because you seem to have finally learned how to be a productive contributor. Keep up your thoughtful posts whether we disagree or not
Noted.
Hi Steve, I haven’t thought about the DRF Track Variant in ages. Even though the old DRF variant has it’s faults it was at least some indication of the speed of the surface. Anyway, it got me wondering why it is that none of the PP’s of 2024 note the track variant along with their Speed Figure (other than the faulty DRF var)? The more I think about it, the more odd it seems that they leave out the variant. Even more odd is the fact that I haven’t thought of it till now. I love Thoro-Graph, but I’m not a regular user. I’m pretty sure that Thoro-Graph doesn’t make note of the track variant either… or do they?
If Steve or anyone else knows of PP’s that show the track variant, please mention it, or if I’ve just overlooked them let me know where to look. This is going to bug me… lol
I havent seen any. With all data we have now there is something about the simplicity of the track variant that I love. Handicappers used it religiously for ages. We used to add up the Speed Rating and the track variant and see how close it came to 100.
Yep, my track pals and I did the same thing. One of my friends kept a calendar that he would refer to for adding and subtracting points based on the strength of the card each day. Back then we only played Churchill because it was our home track and there was no simulcasting. We had a prehistoric version of speed figures I reckon thanks to his calendar and the DRF variant. Even though we didn’t have the smorgasbord of today, it was maybe a bit more fun. Still I’d rather have the variety of today vs the fun of yesteryear.
Today’s overload of data sure gives me more to write about in the Rankings
Steve, ChatGPT is pretty good at writing essays for students but can it predict the Kentucky Derby winner? Come the last week of the Derby Trail I’m going to feed it your information and see if ‘it’ can predict the winner.
Fierceness and Conquest Warrior are closely related. Both were sired by City of Light. Their broodmare sire line leads directly to A.P. Indy and their 2nd dams were sired by Empire Maker. Very Interesting relationship to say the least.
I have not posted by KD watch list. It would only confirm the assessment in this space that I have few screws missing. But given one member of my watch list is an entrant in the FOY. I have no option but to support him based on my early assessment that he merited being followed.
Dancing Groom captured my attention in the Champane despite finish a non-threatening 3rd by 10 1/2L. What could be so noteworthy about a badly beaten 37/1 longshot? Stride mechanics.
On the back stretch he displayed long powerful strides but didn’t appear to be getting hold of the track and wasn’t making any in road into 81/2L deficit by which he trailed. The 45 plus 1/2 mile took its toll on the lesser fancied in leading group and he was able to pass tiring entrants including El Grande O and a retreating Fierceness.
He disappointed in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes 7 weeks later with a 6th place finish by 15 3/4L. He went absent for 10 weeks and returned in the Holy Bull. Why the Holy Bull for a 3YO debut? He was beaten a combined 26 1/4L in two previous graded stakes? Is there something trainer Sano knows that the public is yet to discover?
In the pace less 2024 renewal of the Hoy Bull, the pace dependent Dancing Groom finished 6th by 61/2L. Only 3L behind the disappointing Fierceness. The FOY is expected to feature plenty of pace. Dancing Groom should be sharper 2nd time out off the layoff.
By Vino Rosso out of a Bernardini mare, he is sandwiched between a BCC winner and BCC runner up. His dam was lightly raced with only 2 starts. His 2nd dam Snow Fall was sired by War Front. She earned $197K with 4 wins in15 starts. Her dam Snowflakes was a 4times winner on turf who was sired by Careleaon (Nijinsky ll out of Foresee by round Table)
For the big Vino Roso chestnut, who is a May foal, turf could be his preferred surface. But trainer Sano has chosen to persist with him on dirt and in stakes races despite his modest winning time and bad beats.
This colt has a nice stride under him. He doesn’t have a lot of tactical speed and doesn’t appear to have an explosive turn of foot. But his grinding style can come into play if there is any late stress involving the leaders. His best finish in a graded stakes was recorded at GP off a long layoff. He has to be a live longshot with improvement.
Counter Point, I agree Dancing Groom has a beautiful pedigree. Most of the mares in his first five tail-female generations are multiple stakes producers, especially his 5th, Durga. And his third dam, Ivyanna, won the Italian Oaks. Lots of potential there on both sides of his pedigree.
Yes, he should improve with a lively early pace. But his win in the off-turf maiden race at Saratoga in August has produced not a single winner from his eight opponents, and they have had plenty of chances. Good luck anyway.
Good choice, I think I’ll box him in an exacta with Real Macho.
Hi Steve
Thank you for another great in-depth analysis on your top 15 contenders on the Derby trail.
Tuscan Sky is a colt that I’ve been following with particular interest moving forward. I’m wondering if Todd Pletcher plans to run him in the Louisiana Derby or look elsewhere for Tuscan Sky’s next start. If you have any info on Tuscan Sky’s next start I would appreciate hearing about it.
Thanks, Steve.
I’m guessing Louisiana Derby. Two starts then La derby didnt work very well for Kingsbarns last year but he probably needs the extra distance to put some bottom under him. However Pletcher has Agate Road for La. Derby so who knows. I hope to know by the next Rankings.
Thanks, Steve.
BTW, no mention of Valentine Candy, who’s been flying under the radar. He’s won three sprint races in a row, the latest being the Ozark Stakes, on 2-19, going 6 furlongs in 1:10.32, drawing off by 2 1/2 lengths. VC has a ton of stamina influence on his dam side, so I’m wondering why Asmussen hasn’t stretched him out in a Derby prep race. Any idea what’s going on with this son of Justify?
Thanks Steve.
Valentine Candy isn’t even Triple Crown nominated. The runner up in his debut race has a better chance of making it into the Derby starting gate, and he’s still a maiden.
Thanks for the heads-up Counter Fit.
That would explain why Asmussen has restricted Valentine Candy to sprint races.
I think Pletcher might send Antiquarian to the Louisiana Derby. I believe he is a horse that will really appreciate the distance. His sire Preservationist, has a pedigree that reminds me of Uncle Mo’s dam, Playa Maya.
Also, should add that Antiquarian’s breeder, Brereton Jones, has won the Louisiana Derby before with a horse he bred, Comic Strip, who won the 1998 Louisiana Derby when it was 1 1/16th miles. And it is interesting that the dam of Comic Strip, Now Thats Funny, can be found in Antiquarian’s dam line.
First; where is Stronghold? 14th on last week’s list now nowhere to be found, not even knocking at the door. Is he off the trail?
I absolutely agree with Steve’s comments about Fierceness. He’s been displaying an “every other race” pattern of great and horrible so it’s really hard to feel confident on his current path that we’ll see the “great” fierceness on Derby Day.
I didn’t care for Timberlake’s return race at all. Yes, he won, but the behind him was so poor and, except for the closing 16th, which, as Steve pointed out, he was motoring well, it was a lackluster and very uninspiring race. As Steve also points out, it was his first race back after 4 months off and there is room for improvement.
I also agree with the comments on Track Phantom. It’s hard to see him as a 10f horse but you’ve got to love his consistency and try.
Sorry but I can’t mention every horse every week just for the sake mentioning them if there isnt anything say. Last week I ranked 20 horses, this week back to 15. Some had to be dropped at least for now. Once I get some news about him and where he definitely is running he will be mentioned again. I’m sure he will head east somewhere and that i will writing about again soon.
I too wondered about Stronghold. I thought I might have missed something. He may or may not be in a class with the best horses, but he would definitely be in my top fifteen. I also have personal reasons for liking him. When I was a child, my uncle had a lakeside camp called Stronghold and we used to go there to swim. I also had an aunt named Leone, so there’s a lot of sentiment involved here. But although I never knew anyone named Fierceness, I still like him the best. I agree with all the comments about his unpredictability–you never know whether he’s going to be fierce or not–but at his best, I think he’s better than anybody else. His best performance came after everybody gave up on him. So I guess we just wait and see which Fierceness shows up when and hope he chooses the right time to be good.
Things can change but right now, especially without BB horses, this is a weak Derby field IMHO.
Field isn’t weak.
Or strong, for that matter. It might be a long time before we can sort things out.
Thank you Steve for your take on this week’s rankings. Once again, you give us good food for thought in sizing up the prospects for this year’s Derby contenders. I am especially encouraged by your assessment of Honor Marie’s race in the Risen Star and the promise of better days ahead. I really liked his races at Churchill last year and if he comes up to the Derby in good form, then I’m sure he will give a good account of himself.
Another favorite of mine is Forever Young. His Saudi Derby win was eye catching, but, like you, I’m concerned about his not changing leads. Is this something that comes naturally for a horse? If a horse doesn’t do it on his own, then what does a jockey have to do to cue him to change? Finally, do you ever recall a stakes horse winning a big distance race without changing leads? FY fans need to know. Haskin san, arigatou gozai mashi ta!
Dewey, in response to your question about kead changes.
Yes, horses in their natural environment do change leads when galloping or cantering.
I have seen my horses do it many times in their pastures.
Dressage horses are trained to do a flying change of leads when executing certain dressage moves.
Thoroughbreds are also trained to change leads during a race.
I personally at this point do not think it is a major concern for Forever Young at this point in time.
If he does win a berth in the KD, I am confident that his trainer will address the issue.
Just as a side note, research in other countries has shown that fractures occur more often in stretch runs during lead changes. There was another study that indicated that horses will bleed when changing leads.
Thank you, Lynda. I am just concerned about the fatigue factor if a horse doesn’t change leads to get a second breath, so to speak.
Maybe I’m fretting too much about Forever Young as it’s like he’s become my baby now. lol
BTW, I was just wondering…. do you know if the 20 Derby points that FY earned in Japan can be combined with any points that he earns in Dubai? Because if he finishes 3rd or 4th in the UAE Derby, that probably won’t be enough points to make it in.
Forever Young took about 4 strides before changing leads very smoothly on his own in his previous start. It’s not as if he does this every race. He was very wide on the turn in Saudi and sometimes when they go that wide it’s not as natural to change leads as it is when you cut the corner and in a more natural stride. Just an observational opinion.
Dewey, I will have to defer to others more familiar with the points situation for the International horses.
I understand the concern regarding the fatigue factor in the stretch in a 20 horse field in a race as demanding znd grueling as the Kentucky Derby.
As I mentioned earlier, I have confidence in the Japanese trainers to take it into consideration if their colts make it to the Derby.
If points are earned in more than one Road to the Derby, they cannot be combined. In 2023, three Japan-based horses were entered in the Kentucky Derby.
Derma Sotogake earned qualifying points with his win in the UAE Derby (the regular road). His owners did not accept a Derby invitation based on his win in the Zen-Nippon Nisai Yushon (the Japan road).
Continuar accepted the Derby invitation from the Japan road based on the points earned in the Cattleya Sho.
Mandarin Hero earned his entry in the Derby through a second-place finish in the Santa Anita Derby (the regular road).
Thank you for clarifying the earned points venues, Winston. You accurately noted the routes taken and earned in last year’s Derby. I should have known that….. “senior moment” lol
Dewey I read a post about how European horsemen don’t take lead changes seriously…on dirt it’s important, dirt races are more of a grind—when a closer comes off the turn, if they do not change leads they lug inward, and you’ll see jockeys trying to get them off their left leads ….they “throw a cross”, with the workings, the Ortiz Bros and Kent are proficient at this, you can see them….
Another place on the track that has a high percentage of fractures.
Thanks, Matthew. I think I get the picture. I’ll keep my eyes open for those crosses. Now, if only Forever Young can respond accordingly. Lead wa kirikae te (switch leads).
I don’t get the love for Forever Young. He was all out to beat a New Jersey bred by Bucherro who was a turf sprinter. Nothing about Bookem Danno says KY Derby, in fact, they aren’t even considering it, having stated the Pat Day Mile is their next target.
So why all the slobbering over a horse that barely beat him (and probably only did so because of track bias–late closers were getting up all night right before the wire over speed horses that looked home free. Happened to Saudi Crown, happened to Skelly and to Bookem Danno)? If FY merits a mention, why not Bookem Danno?
I am a big believer in lead changes and this horse never changed over that endless stretch. That is a bad, bad sign. I avoid horses who don’t switch leads like the plague.
Hmmm…. no change leads, bad sign Kemo Sabe. Clownskill, why don’t you give him another chance? We should have a better assessment of FY’s potential after the UAE Derby. After all, Forever Young changed leads late in his last race in Japan and was pulling away to win by 7 lengths. Can do, Clownskill, Discopartner, et al.
Even if you don’t value lead changes, the fact remains he was all out to beat a horse that is second or third tier at best in the US that is distance limited. If he’s all out to beat our C team, how will he fare against our A Teamers.
Book em Danno is fast. Did you see his run in the Pasco?
You lost me at Pasco Stakes.
4 starts, 4 wins, pedigree; powerful, explosive stride; determination to win, ears up in gallop out, shaved two seconds off record for this last race, beautifully conditioned, balanced.
Trained by the most successful trainer currently in Japan.
And you persist in faulting him for not changing leads?
I for one look at a lot more about a horse that lead changes.
I fault him for not changing leads and I question what he beat. I couldn’t care less about the stakes record for a race that has had only 5 runnings.
Pedigree, Shmedigree. They all have pedigree if you go back far enough.
Dismiss the lead change (or lack thereof) at your own peril. It’s a real thing.
The Pasco Stakes has had 26 runnings.
She was talking about the Saudi Derby.
Sorry about that. I didn’t follow the thread properly on my phone. I agree with you about the Saudi Derby. As for the previously mentioned Pasco Stakes, it has produced some very good G1 and graded-stakes runners, though few Derby entrants (Musket Man comes to mind) or distance horses.
I agree Linda.
That’s a valid point. I got love for him because he is undefeated and is a promising colt. His next UAE derby race is going to be the real test to see if he is truly legitimate or not. Until then I will ride with Forever Young until he proves me he is not that caliber.
Wicked One, I am in agreement with you. The UAE Derby will be the test for Forever Young.
Out of all the colts bidding for a gate in the KD, there are just two this year that I like, Honor Marie and Forever Young.
These are all young colts, many just now turning three years old, others will turn three over the next two months. They each have a lot to learn and experience to gain.
Why all the slobbering over every horse from one barn?
It could be caused by a neurological disorder.
Could be. Lol
What barn is that?
The barn who doesn’t know you exist.
I still don’t know what you’re talking about. Is it a barn that wouldn’t give you a private horsey visit?
Lol! If you actually believe would spend a second of my valuable time visiting your kings barn…….think again!
Come on, you never pass up a horsey visit. You love mentioning them too much.
Thank you Steve.
I have not given up on Honor Marie.
Forever Young has a big, long stride and looks to be every bit a Kentucky Derby winner. The lift he gets off his hindquarters reminds me of Secretariat. Watched one of his earlier races in Japan and just explodes with each stride.
And to shave 2 seconds off race record is impressive after the mistakes.
Steve, so glad you are keeping the faith with Born Noble and Gettysburg Address, while Footprint ran ok last Saturday he just appears too immature as a Derby contender but that could change. You wish Todd Pletcher would stop playing ‘ducks and drakes’ with his runners but that’s his prerogative I guess. Speak Easy has three options to run and nobody knows for sure where.
The Gotham and San Felipe Stakes haven’t been determined yet so who knows if there will be any surprise entries in either race. With a win in either race enablidng a colt to gain enough points to get in to the Derby they should be able to decide who’s running where by now. Granted things can change quickly or unexpectedly but the punters need some kind of certainty.
Senor Buscador was walloped quite ferociously by Proxy prior to the running of the Risen Star Stakes which may have derailed him for a year but who knows there is always too much secrecy in racing but it’ll never change. Ha ha It was fantastic seeing him win the Saudi Cup though. You always admire runners that give their all each time they compete.
Once again, Steve, deepest gratitude in providing the best coverage of the Derby Trial, you make the prep races the best part of the run for the roses.
Born Noble seems to have missed a work last weekend. Not sure if anything is wrong with him or not? Maybe Steve can find out.
I like to give it more than a couple of days before bothering anyone. Spoke to two peoply very close to the horse couple of days ago and they didnt say anything so I’ll give it another day or two before asking about it
Thanks Steve. That sounds promising, just wait and see if he’s entered in the Tampa Bay Derby.
Seems like he had a minor setback and missed a work. Plans now are on hold. But nothing major.
Thanks Steve. First Parchment Party and now Born Noble, must be so disappointing for the connections both colts appeared to have a decent chance of making a noise at the big dance. Hopefully, they resume in the Fall.
Born Noble worked again this morning so seems it was very minor like Steve said.
Perhaps he will show up somewhere soon
Thanks Steve, good stuff as always from yourself this week.
Thanks for the update. I knew he worked on February 17. Could be nothing, could be just enough to knock him out of the Derby Trail, you just wait and hope.
Thanks for the inside information about Honor Marie’s last performance. He will be a much improved runner next time…
I also appreciate the information about track variants related to Uncle Heavy. It gives me a new perspective regarding the prospects of this almost undefeated gallant Pennsylvanian runner.
This past weekend I was focused on the Saudi Cup and Oaklawn but I was interested in the two only dirt races at Gulfstream.
Corporate Power (Curlin-Road to Victory by Quality Road) was a noteworthy 9-Furlong winner last Saturday at Gulfstream Park for Shug McGaughey and Javier Castellano up.
The son of Curlin looked like going nowhere running very greenly and lugging over the homestretch. Then he got a second gear after seeing the closing Sturdy to his outside over the last 100 yards to beat Batten Down by a neck. Stretch runner Sturdy was another neck in third 14 lengths ahead of the fourth place.
Corporate Power’s time for the 1 1/8 mile was a respectable 1:51.08 finishing the last 1/16 in 12 3/5 seconds.
It was Corporate Power’s second start following a fourth 8 lengths behind the scintillating Speak Easy. The full brother of Tacitus, Batten Down, was the 4.7 to 1 second betting choice in that key race but finished 6th 10 lengths behind Speak Easy.
So, the performances of Corporate Power and Batten Down last Saturday validated the class of Speak Easy and Victory Avenue.
Sturdy was coming off a 4-month layoff so, his performance is very encouraging as well. The race of the son of Mitole also flattered Locked and Domestic Product who had defeated him easily in New York. It is amazing to see a son of Mitole doing so well at two consecutive 1 1/8 mile races.
Shug and Mott are very patient trainers who seem to be immune to the “Derby fever” but it is nice to see sons of Curlin and Tapit with a chance to eventually be players in future Stakes specially the mid and long distance ones.
Steve, thank you for getting a good chunk of the Senor Busador story in this jam-packed Derby 15. (To add more about the Peacock’s breeding program, his dam, Rose’s Desert, is the mother of three additional stakes winners, including Grade 3 winner Runaway Ghost.)
I’m looking forward to the reactions to your rankings. Although I have 12 of the same horses in my own top 15, only one is in the same position, Sierra Leone. In several cases I’ve leaned toward horses that have emerged this year rather than last year as 2YOs. The exceptions are Dornach, which I have at No. 3, and Honor Marie (my No. 8). I demoted Fierceness all the way to No. 5 since he had such a shaky start. I am high on Forever Young (my No. 2). I don’t care at this point that he still has to work his way into the field — his performance in the Saudi Derby really impressed me. I’m willing to forgive his not changing leads when he can win over a very good American sprinter/miler like Book’em Danno.
This weekend’s preps will either help us or more likely, confound us. Thanks for adding tantalizing bits about some of this weekend’s competitors — especially Capital Idea, who popped that sensational last-out Thoro-graph fig. I’ll be watching him with interest.
I go into detail on Rose’s Desert’s stakes winners, especially, Runaway Ghost.. She has been a remarkable producer. A great move by the Peacocks to go all in on her.
I just reread the entire column. I must have been going too fast the first time through, but you did indeed say all of that and more!
The Fountain of Youth is only 1 1/16th miles, I thought it was 1 1/8. That helps Dornoch if he’s going to be a front runner again. Disappointed that it isn’t longer, but I guess it’s better for layoff horses. It doesn’t prove as much though.
The FOY has been 8.5f since the 1950s, with the exception of a 7-year span from 2005 to 2011.
We’ll find out this Saturday in the Fountain of Youth if Dornach will be knocking on the door, or will the door be Locked?
How often does one knock on an open door?
You always knock, even Jehovah Witness’s knock besides never surprise someone who owns a gun!
Ok Zany, that was pretty good, I hadn’t heard that one yet!
Steve you’re the best ! I’m a total senor buscador fan and had no idea his name is mr prospector in Spanish thank u ! Love him even more !
He is inbred to Mr. P so Emma just saw that and liked the sound of the Spanish translation
Hi Steve- I emailed Robert Medina today about Liberal Arts and was concerned because he hasn’t worked in 10 days. I just checked my phone now and he was kind enough to email me back and told me that LA is doing very good and like you said above will be working tomorrow. I would love to see Robert with a KY Derby contender. It’s nice to see a fresh name and not the usual suspects who have bigger barns and multiple entrants in these derby preps. Robert got back to me 48 minutes after I texted him. He seems like a nice guy as well as a good trainer.
Hi Steve – Great list and updates as usual. I breathed a sigh of relief when I read from you that Liberal Arts will get a half mile work in on Tuesday , which is 11 days from his last work. I bet LA to win and boxed him with the field in KDFW2. I believe LA will fire a big shot in the ARK Derby even though he will be facing Mystic Dan and possibly Timberlake. MD got a perfect trip in the SW by beating LA to that golden spot on the rail. As for Timberlake, it was a good comeback race off of a long layoff but the field he beat was very bad. I also bet Ari’s Magic in KDFW3 at 74-1. He finished a dull fifth in an Allow. race last out won by Real Macho who beat Born Noble. Watch the replay again Steve in that allowance race and watch Ari’s Magic when the gates opened. He slipped badly and then was slammed by a horse next to him. Maybe the bad start threw him off of his game or even knocked the wind out of him. AM may be pointing to the TB Derby where he will seek redemption from his last start and derby points. I would love to see Euro jockey Osin Murphy on him next race if he goes in the TB Derby. What are your views of Ari’s Magic Steve and do you think he might bounce back with a stronger performance? He recently fired a 5F bullet at Payson Park. Thanks again Steve for all that you do and the updates and enthusiasm with Liberal Arts. I’m with you on LA Steve.
Oh, wow, I get to be the first commenter on here! Thanks as always for your in-depth insights, Steve. I’m heartened by your encouraging words about Honor Marie. As you pointed out last time, he’s won twice at Churchill; that’s never a bad thing. Like you, I am intrigued by Forever Young. And I hope Real Macho runs well in the FoY as I’m a big fan of his sire.
All first commenters go into the Rankings Hall of Fame. Congrats!
Thank you! 🙂 Say, First Comment would be a nice name for a racehorse.