Kentucky Derby Rankings – Week 7
What was supposed to be a revealing weekend of Kentucky Derby preps went down the proverbial drain with a rash of scratches, most of them favorites and contenders in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, and a continuation of this year’s slopfest, all of which just added to the confusion in finding a legitimate Derby favorite. ~ Steve Haskin
Derby Rankings: March 4, 2024 – Week 7
By Steve Haskin
1—Sierra Leone (Chad Brown, Gun Runner – Heavenly Love, by Malibu Moon)
What do we really know about Sierra Leone after only three races other than his lofty price tag, his turn of foot, and his closing punch? When he walked off the van at Scanlon Training and Sales following the Keeneland September yearling sale, and Scanlon saw a big, leggy colt with a great walk, almost cat-like for a big horse and not awkward at all, he knew he just needed to fill into that large frame and mature physically by putting on some weight, which he has. Scanlon added that he was very workmanlike in his early breezes, unlike the more precocious Hall of Fame, who Coolmore also purchased at the sale. In his early report to Coolmore, Scanlon said, “This is your 3-year-old.” He emphasized the colt’s “long sweeping stride that eats up ground.” The one thing Scanlon learned from his late father, Robert, who broke and trained major stakes winners such as Afeet Alex, Unbridled Song, Artax, and Lion Heart among others, was, “No matter what price they bring, treat them all like horses.” Scanlon let Sierra Leone grow and mature and never thought of him as being that big beautiful $2.3 million yearling. He let him be a horse and could see the transformation into a grand-looking professional racehorse who filled into that leggy frame. Scanlon has noticed that Sierra Leone has started to get that “eye of the tiger” and really zeroes in on his opponent, determined to catch him, as he demonstrated in the Risen Star Stakes. That cat-like action he showed Scanlon when he first saw him walk has no doubt contributed to the colt’s rapid fire acceleration and explosive move we have seen in all three of his races.
2—Timberlake (Brad Cox, Into Mischief – Pin Up, by Lookin At Lucky)
I heard several analysts on YouTube questioning Timberlake’s ability to go a mile and a quarter. I don’t know on what that was based, but I don’t believe there is a 3-year-old in the country, maybe any horse in the country, who has more class and stamina in his pedigree, especially on his dam’s side. Let’s start with his sire Into Mischief, who we already know has no problem siring Kentucky Derby winners and is so potent when bred to mares with stamina. As for Timberlake’s dam, who is by Preakness winner Lookin at Lucky, she won at distances from 1 ½ miles to 1 ¾ miles and was stakes-placed at 1 ¾ miles. His second dam placed in the English and Irish Oaks, as well as a group 2 stakes at 1 ¾ miles, and she is by Sadler’s Wells, who sired 34 classic winners at 1 ½ miles, including 11 Derby winners (English, Irish, and French), eight Oaks winners, four Breeders’ Cup Turf winners, and two Arc de Triomphe winners. He also is the sire of the winners of seven Ascot Gold Cups at 2 ¾ miles and two St. Leger winners at about 1 7/8 miles. Timberlake’s third dam is by French Derby winner Darshaan, a son of English and Irish Derby winner Shirley Heights, who is by Mill Reef, winner of the English Derby and Arc de Triomphe. And finally, Timberlake’s fourth dam is by Crystal Palace, winner of the French Derby. Looking at the Rebel, his “3 ½” Thoro-Graph number was a slight regression from last year, but I wouldn’t expect him to move forward after running a “2” in back-to-back races. Those are two fast numbers for a 2-year-old and difficult on which build following a four-month layoff, so I feel his 3 ½ is an excellent starting point, as you don’t want to run too fast first time out and risk a bounce in your final prep.
3—Fierceness (Todd Pletcher, City of Light – Nonna Bella, by Stay Thirsty)
Despite his disappointing performance in the Holy Bull, no one is really pulling away from him. If there is any year a horse can live off his reputation it is this year when no one is making a really strong case for himself as a true Derby favorite, as evidenced by the moderate to slow speed figures by the top contenders the Holy Bull, which still in my mind was the flukiest race of the year with that ridiculous pace. So, did a brilliantly fast horse like Fierceness resent going that slow and got bored with it all, running down to the level of his competition or did he simply not make a positive transition from 2 to 3? They both could be a reach, but true. Or perhaps he just needs everything to go his way, as most people believe. All I know is that this horse has shown what he is capable of on two occasions, and so far, what he is capable of will blow the doors off any other 3-year-old we’ve seen. Sierra Leone and Timberlake have taken a big step in the right direction off their 2-year-old form, but nothing even approaching what Fierceness did last year. So, like everyone, we’ll just wait for the Florida Derby and see what kind of mood Fierceness is in that day and if something or someone can get his competitive juices flowing again.
4—Mystik Dan (Kenny McPeek, Goldencents – Ma’am by Colonel John)
Who would have thought after this past weekend’s number of top races we’d still have the same top four. But the weekend turned out to be pretty much a bust with one big scratch after another, leaving Mystik Dan still the fastest 3-year-old seen this year. Yes, it was in the slop, as was his most recent sharp half-mile work in :48 1/5 at Fair Grounds, but we have seen his brilliance on a fast track so at least he has that going for him. In his recent drill he worked in company with Torpedo Anna, runner-up in the Grade 2 Golden Rod Stakes, with both horses breaking from the 4 ½-furlong pole and going steady :12s throughout. Mystic Dan, who is headed for the Arkansas Derby, is one of five McPeek horses currently on the Derby trail, along with Common Defense, Northern Flame, Real Men Violin, and Lat Long, all of them having won or placed in stakes. Some still have doubts about Mystik Dan because of the slop and rail bias, but when you are as visually impressive, fast, and dominant as he was it goes beyond any track biases.
5—Deterministic (Christophe Clement, Liam’s Map – Giulio’s Jewel, by Speightstown)
Let’s face it, racing today, especially the Derby trail, is no place for someone old school like yours truly whose concept of racing has become Neanderthal. I have bent slightly with Justify and Mage, but refused to break and it cost me. Now comes an even bigger challenge. Can a horse, especially one by Liam’s Map, out of a Speightstown mare, win the Kentucky Derby, not only with three lifetime starts, but two starts in the last nine months and only one around two turns? Who am I to say no? He just won the Gotham off one-six furlong race and a seven-month layoff. So I will consider him a viable Derby contender and commend the horse and trainer for their accomplishment in the Gotham. Many remember his career debut last August when he ducked in at the start and dropped far back, then made a big sustained run on the far outside to run down the leader at the wire. But an ankle chip sidelined him until the Gotham, an ambitious spot after such a long layoff. For Clement to run him here, and on a sloppy track in a big field, you can bet he was seeing roses in the gloom of Aqueduct. What was impressive other than winning was how professional he looked, especially his maneuverability and agility and always appearing to be in control every step of the way like a seasoned pro. Then to run by a seasoned warrior like El Grande O, who had already run 10 times, winning or placing in seven stakes, and then holding off the highly touted Just a Touch, was very impressive. He has excellent mechanics, keeping his legs under him perfectly and maintains a straight course down the stretch when he isn’t forced to alter course. So here we go. Once agaIn the history books are open for a new chapter to be written.
6—Conquest Warrior (Shug McGaughey, City of Light – Tea Time, by Pulpit)
When it comes to evaluating this horse, I am not going to be influenced a great deal by times and speed ratings; at least not yet. With him it has always been about the visual and how he catches the eye before, during, and after a race. The stats will come with experience and overall maturity. He has only run three times, none of them in stakes, and being a giant of horse who stands 17 hands tall and weighs approximately 1,320 pounds he is still filling out into that big frame and becoming more refined with each race. We saw what he is capable of in his troubled maiden victory and that is why we had him ranked No. 9 in spite of being well behind the others. After being off for seven weeks, he returned in a 1 1/8-mile allowance and it was obvious from the start that he hasn’t missed a beat, as evidenced by his three bullet works over the deep Payson Park training track. It looked like he was going to be given a good test by the front-running Merit, who was coming off a solid third in an allowance race. To watch Conquest Warrior settle beautifully in fourth, move up along the inside, swing to the outside, collar Merit under no urging at all, and just glide past him after turning for home was a thing of beauty. He quickly opened up with those humongous strides and just cruised home while geared down with Jose Ortiz barely moving his hands. And remember, he is still a work in progress and we can only speculate what the finished product is going to look like. We just have to hope something close enough to the finished product shows up in the Florida Derby. The question is whether he will be polished enough to handle top-class stakes horses and earn enough points to get in the Kentucky Derby. It’s a tough task, but if anyone can do it is this colt because of his extremely high ceiling.
7—Dornoch (Danny Gargan, Good Magic – Puca, by Big Brown)
How do you even begin to analyze the farce that was the Fountain of Youth Stakes, ravished by key scratches. And where do you rank this colt based on what the race turned into, who he beat, and how he beat them? And how do you assess his performance when he still displayed some signs of greenness. No he didn’t duck in sharply like he did last year or drift in and out, but he was very late changing leads again and still seems to be looking at the grandstand quite a bit. But this may be nitpicking. All in all he was much more professional than last year and has filled out beautifully, but still has those few kinks to get out. Most important, however, is that he has won three in a row and once again showed the ability to dig in when challenged and fight back. Focusing solely on the Fountain of Youth, he was just workmanlike to beat two sprinters coming out of the seven-furlong Swale Stakes by 1 ¾ lengths, with the runner-up having faced him two races back in the Remsen, getting beat 30 lengths at 81-1. But sometimes horses coming come off good performances in sprint stakes can be a handful stretching out in small fields. So why should anyone be surprised we have another race that doesn’t shed much light on the Derby picture and leaves us as much in the dark as we were before? Once again I’ll have to leave him around where he was and wait to see more in his second start back.
8—Forever Young (Yoshito Yahagi, Real Steel – Forever Darling, by Congrats)
Here is a question for you. What 3–year-old has run the second-fastest Thoro-Graph number this year behind Mystik Dan’s “1/4” in the Southwest Stakes? Yep, you are correct, it is Forever Young, who with everything he had to overcome in the Saudi Derby, still ran a “1.” No one else has run faster than a “2 ½.” I am not taking this horse seriously because he ran a fast Thoro-Graph number as much as I am because in my opinion he should not have even won the race. We already have commented about the high cruising speed he showed tracking the leader in his previous start, but that was negated in the Saudi Derby by a terrible start that put him at the back of the pack. He then had to make his run five-wide into and out of the far turn and got stuck on his left lead every step down that extremely long stretch while drifting out. There was no way he should have made up so much ground in the final furlong to nail a quick American miler coming off a 12 ½-length stakes victory, especially running basically as fast as Senor Buscador and Ushba Tesoro ran in the Saudi Cup. The fact that it was an ugly race visually by Forever Young and he still won boosted his reputation. Who knows how good this horse is when he has a good trip? I’m not sure how far he wants to go, although he does have stamina through his sire and his entire male line, but it’s hard to rank him higher than this until we see how he runs in the UAE Derby and whether he even qualifies for the Kentucky Derby.
9—Domestic Product (Chad Brown, Practical Joke – Goods and Services, by Paynter)
I am trying extremely hard to convince myself this colt wants to go a mile and a quarter because I really like what I’ve seen in his races. His pedigree says it’s going to have to be his broodmare sire Paynter, beaten a neck in the Belmont Stakes, that gets him that extra eighth of a mile. Paynter is by Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Awesome Again, out of a full-sister to two-time BC Classic winner Tiznow. In his mile and an eighth maiden score, Domestic Product looked like a horse who will relish the 10 furlongs, but in the muddy Remsen Stakes he tired badly. So which one is the real Domestic Product? In his second-place finish in the 1 1/16-mile Holy Bull Stakes he looked every bit the stayer, but the absurdly slow pace of that race put that performance in question. After watching his races very carefully, I saw many more positives than that one poor effort in the mud. Coming off a dull fifth in his career debut at six furlongs, he stretched way out to 1 1/8 miles and shot out of the gate before settling in second. Down the backstretch he dragged jockey Many Franco up to the leader’s flank, then sat patiently until he was let loose on the far turn. Just as he took over, the 2-5 favorite Eliminate came charging up to him on the outside, but Franco took two peeks back and in a flash he was gone, opening up by three lengths, and then just hand ridden to the wire to win, by 4 ¼ lengths in a solid 1:50 4/5, coming home in :24 flat and :12 3/5/. That :36 3/5 final three-eighths earned him a strong Brisnet 108 late pace figure. That race and the way he was striding out at the end of the Holy Bull after being hard held early behind that slow pace has convinced me this is a better horse than people many think.
10—Catching Freedom (Brad Cox, Constitution, Catch My Drift, by Pioneerof the Nile)
I admit that because of the weird nature of this year’s Derby trail some horses are being ranked too low and others too high. I still am extremely high on this colt, but he is just so similar to several other horses on the Fair Grounds/Oaklawn circuit it’s hard to remember what you like about them and you can only watch the replays so many times. I do know that this colt has shown he is very talented, but still has greenness issues to work, and that is why he is not ranked higher. He will have 1 3/16 miles of the Louisiana Derby to do it, and it must be added that some of his problems were not of his doing and he just may be a hard-luck horse who seems to find himself in precarious situations. There is no reason why he shouldn’t show big improvement, and he will have to, especially moving his speed figures up to where he can be competitive. What he and many others have going for them is that his speed figures, although slow, are in line with many of the other Derby contenders. He worked four furlongs on Sunday in :51 1/5.
11—Track Phantom (Steve Asmussen, Quality Road – Miss Sunset, by Into Mischief)
He worked five furlongs in 1:02 3/5. Yes he may very well be ranked too low for what he has accomplished, but after failing to hold on in the Risen Star after setting such a slow uncontested pace he is going to have show me in the Louisiana Derby he is capable of winning a major prep, especially at 1 3/16 miles and 1 ¼ miles, against top-class horses by attempting to take them wire-to-wire. I would imagine there will be more pace pressure in the Louisiana Derby with so many horses getting their final shot at making the Kentucky Derby field. He has proven to be a tough horse on the lead who has been in his share of battles, so you have to be careful when to engage him. Like with so many of them, we just have to wait until these 100-point races to see who emerges from all the confusion.
12—Honor Marie (Whit Beckman, Honor Code – Dame Marie, by Smart Strike)
He worked a half in :49 3/5 for the Louisiana Derby, where he will attempt to rebound off the Risen Star, in which pretty much everything went against him, including the sloppy track. We saw what this colt is capable of in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, and if you liked that powerful kick he displayed, as well as his electrifying stretch run going six furlongs in his career debut you are going to get huge odds in the March 15 Future Wager, possibly higher than the 36-1 he went off at in the last Future Wager. This is your big chance to wager on the number of talented horses seeking redemption in their final Kentucky Derby prep. Anyone who ran in the Louisiana Derby, especially a deep closer like Honor Marie, gets a pass. We can’t judge this horse until we see what he can do with a fast or even legitimate pace and a dry track.
13—Just a Touch (Brad Cox, Justify – Touching Beauty, by Tapit)
The reason I was encouraged by his performance in the Gotham is because on that wet and heavy track a massive, a powerfully built colt like Just Touch, who seemed to dwarf the 16-hands Deterministic, had more trouble handling it than the winner. Deterministic is a quick and agile colt and was able to glide over the surface. Just a Touch, unable to really quicken, just kept coming at a steady pace and was getting stronger the farther he went. What makes him all the more special is that he packs so much size and muscle despite being a May 5 foal. We know he does have a quick turn of foot because when David Scanlon, who broke him and gave him his early training, first saw his acceleration and speed he thought, “That horse shouldn’t be doing that.” And despite his size he still worked in :09 4/5 at the 2-year-old sale. Both he and Deterministic were making only their second start, and if anything is going to prevent them from winning the Derby it will be lack of racing and experience and certainly not ability. Just a Touch has yet to run on a fast track, with his first start being on a sealed track that was playing fast, so we really don’t know how good this horse is and what he is capable of on a dry track. What we do know is that he was so highly touted before his career debut he went off at odds of 1-2. Now we’ll see if he can emulate his sire by winning the Derby with only three career starts and none as a 2-year-old. He sure takes after him physically.
14—Hades (Joe Orseno, Awesome Slew – The Shady Lady, by Quality Road)
He worked a half in :48 3/5. With so many horses skipping a middle prep and waiting for the 100-point races, especially at Gulfstream and Oaklawn and with California being off in its own Baffert world and non-existent as far as the Derby goes, we have so little to go by, and that has been this colt’s problem. I keep feeling I am ranking him too low. We knew little about him before the Holy Bull and we still know little about him other than he beat Fierceness in a paceless race and hasn’t been seen since other than three workouts, one being an odd mile work in 1:47 4/5, harking back to a time long ago. We could be dealing with a fluky Holy Bull winner or a major star who has the ability to run the 2-year-old champ and Derby favorite into the ground or crush his opponents by eight lengths. And he can beat you going 5 ½ furlongs, seven furlongs or 1 1/16 miles. He has come from last going 5 ½ furlongs and has battled head and head on the lead in his last two starts. His pedigree is an excellent combination of distance speed and stamina and his Thoro-Graph numbers are heading in the right direction. So all in all he has to be one of the most intriguing and possibly underrated horses on the Derby trail, especially one who is undefeated. Don’t be surprised to see him move up in the weeks prior to the Florida Derby. Many forget the days when Orseno was considered one the of the country’s elite trainers, and judging from that mile work he still has the confidence to do things his way.
15—Encino (Brad Cox, Nyquist – Glittering Jewel, by Berardini)
You have to pay more attention to Turfway Park’s synthetic surface these days following the monster performances in the Derby by Rich Strike and Two Phil’s the last two years. This colt has made all three of his career starts at Turfway and has shown a great deal of versatility, with two victories and a second, including an impressive score over the big favorite Epic Ride in Saturday’s John Battaglia Memorial. So why is a colt with his pedigree and owned by Godolphin racing exclusively at Turfway? He was in a group of young horses who Godolphin sent there to try to figure out what level they were at and where they were best suited to race. Now that he has shown them what he is capable of, he most likely will make his final Derby prep on dirt, according to Dan Pride, chief operating officer for Godolphin. What I love most about this colt is that his dam is a half-sister to Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense and the tail-female families of his sire and dam both trace to Ribot through Arts and Letters on top and His Majesty on the bottom. He also has Ribot on top through Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner Pleasant Colony.
16—Liberal Arts (Robbie Medina, Arrogate, Ismeme, by Tribal Rule)
I don’t know how good he is, but for some reason he inspires confidence that you are going to get his best effort every race, and dependability is important trying to get to get to the Derby. Medina says he has always been a very smart horse who adapts quickly to whatever new routine he encounters and that also is very important leading up to and on Derby Day. Medina obviously feels comfortable remaining at the Kentucky Training Center in Lexington where it is quiet and he can get Liberal Arts fit with stiffer gallops. He did work a half in :49 2/5, which has been his usual distance. The result has been a steady progression in his speed figures with every start. Because of all these factors he is one horse I would love to have in the Future Wager at 57-1, which he closed at last month. He shouldn’t be too much shorter than that in the next one on March 15. He just has to show us how fast he is, and the Arkansas Derby will test that. I would love to rank him higher because I really like this horse, but it is such a mishmash that a few spots higher or lower mean very little. The Derby trail for all intents and purposes still has not begun.
17—Tuscan Sky (Todd Pletcher, Vino Rosso – South Andros, by Sky Mesa)
He breezed a half in :49 4/5 in company with Born Noble as he prepares for his make-or-break final Derby prep. Between Fierceness’s unexpected failure, Locked’s misfortunes, Born Noble’s defeat and subsequent minor physical problem, and Speak Easy’s freakish scratch in the Fountain of Youth, Pletcher’s Derby plans have been in complete disarray. Tuscan Sky has only run two times, but at least he hasn’t had any setbacks and still is on whatever schedule Pletcher has in mind for him. That won’t be decided until this weekend. Like with so many 3-year-olds this year, they are so lightly raced we have no idea how good they really are. This colt has shown a lot in his two starts, but he is still far behind on experience and hasn’t faced top competition. His pedigree suggests he should handle a distance, but there’s no telling how far. Being so lightly raced and having four doses of Mr. Prospector in his pedigree is something to think about. As we mentioned last week his Thoro-Graph numbers have gone from a “7” to a “3 ½,” so he certainly is on a good trajectory.
18—Hall of Fame (Steve Asmussen, Gun Runnner – Flag Day, by Giant’s Causeway)
He returned to the work tab for the first time since the Risen Star, breezing five furlongs in 1:02 3/5. It seems as if most people have forgotten about him following his well-beaten fifth in the Risen Star. But the more I look at his race the more I am convinced that he was really up against it on that track, especially such a lightly raced horse in a big field in the slop coming off an easy maiden victory. When I brought it up to David Scanlon (yes he is all over the place), who broke him and gave him his early training, he said very often when they get hit in the face and belly with all that wet kickback they get excited and become rank, which Hall of Fame did. The Asmussen team is still very high on him and will continue on the Derby trail, possibly pointing for the Arkansas Derby. That maiden romp was no fluke, so I believe we have to give this colt another chance under more favorable conditions before we dismiss him as a serious Derby horse. He looks like an intriguing bet and potential overlay wherever he runs.
19—Resilience (Bill Mott, Into Mischief – Meadowsweet, by Smart Strike)
He had an easy five-furlong breeze in :50 1/5. He is another of the forgotten horses who made enough of an impact even in defeat to be ranked. Mott has trained this colt as if he believes he is Derby material. Like so many others he is stuck in that 5-to-7 range on his Thoro-Graph numbers and in the 80s on his Beyer figures. So he like the others he needs a break-out performance in his final prep, including a huge jump on his speed figures, and with three consecutive 7 ½ Thoro-Graph numbers he is ready to either make that jump or tell us that is who he is. He has plenty of bottom with all five of his races at a mile or longer, so there is no excuse for him to not take advantage of the extra distance of the Louisiana Derby and elevate himself into contention for the Kentucky Derby. I do like the fact that his only inbreeding is to Halo, which translates to class and stamina through Halo’s sire Hail to Reason.
20—Agate Road (Todd Pletcher, Quality Road – Yellow Agate, by Gemologist)
With Locked forced to miss his 3-year-old debut in the Sam F. Davis Stakes with a fever, Pletcher was able to discover that his grass horse Agate Road was really a dirt horse as well, even though he had been beaten a nose in an off-the-grass maiden race at Saratoga in his career debut. Substituting for Locked, Agate Road finished a fast-closing second, earning a career-high Beyer figure of 90 and jumping from a “10 ¾” Thoro-Graph number to a “5.” So now Agate Road likely will head to the Louisiana Derby for that extra distance and the long stretch. He has a mostly dirt pedigree, but plenty of European grass influences in his female family.
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR
It’s not every day you see a horse go from a potential No. 1 ranking to Knocking on the Door, but until we find out what the future holds for LOCKED he will have to remain here. We still don’t know what it was about his gallop that Pletcher didn’t like, but owner Aron Wellman said they have not given up going to the Derby off one prep, emphasizing they will do what is best for the horse. It would seem if they do go with one prep the logical one would be the Arkansas Derby to give him an extra week before the Kentucky Derby and Wellman has won that race with 41-1 shot Danza. But that is pure speculation. He does have plenty of bottom from last year, but to win the Derby off one race seems improbable and would once again defy the history books. But does anyone even read the history books anymore?
One horse from the Gotham who definitely is worth watching in the Wood Memorial is the fifth-place finisher CAPITAL IDEA. I would be very surprised if he didn’t improve many lengths stretching out to 1 1/8 miles and on a fast track. I thought he looked uncomfortable on that sloppy track and never really got hold of it other than a brief move on the far turn going between horses. Although he appeared to be struggling in the stretch he never quit running. His connections felt a mile was too short for him anyway and expect a much different horse going 1 1/8 miles. He was able to romp by 8 1/4 lengths on a sloppy track breaking his maiden going one-mile, but this was a big step up and should help him move forward on a better track and at a better distance.
NO MORE TIME, wire-to-wire winner of the Sam F. Davis Stakes as the 3-1 favorite, showed his sharpness for Saturday’s Tampa Bay Derby with a half-mile work in :47 4/5. We’ll see if he tries the same tactics this time.
The big horse in the Christophe Clement’s barn obviously is Deterministic, but a sneaky horse to keep a eye on is the New York-bred ridgling PANDAGATE, who has demonstrated quite an explosive kick and looks ready to take on open company after crushing state-breds twice, the last coming in the Gander Stakes. He could show up in the Wood Memorial or the Federico Tesio at Laurel or even the UAE Derby. Wherever he shows up he might just surprise you.
Kenny McPeek said Rebel Stakes runner-up COMMON DEFENSE likely will head to the Louisiana Derby. NORTHERN FLAME, third in the Rebel and REAL MEN VIOLIN could show up in the Jeff Ruby Steaks, with the latter also possible for the Louisiana Derby. LAT LONG, third in the LeComte Stakes, is a possibility for the Arkansas Derby.
LE DOM BRO, who put up such a good fight against Dornoch in the Fountain of Youth Stakes after a troubled second in the seven-furlong Swale Stakes, looks to be headed to the Florida Derby. Another beaten horse on Saturday who ran his heart out as usual is the hard-nosed EL GRANDE O, who will continue on the Derby trail in the Wood Memorial, with trainer Linda Rice seriously considering removing the blinkers.
Chad Brown has a couple of promising lightly raced colts waiting in the wings in TUSCAN GOLD and TOP CONOR, both coming off very impressive maiden wins. The latter worked a half in :49 3/5 on Saturday with Tuscan Gold going his half in :49 2/5.
BORN NOBLE, another Todd Pletcher horse sidelined briefly with a minor ailment, was back on the work tab, breezing a half in :49 4/5.
Sunland Derby winner STRONGHOLD still hasn’t worked since that race on February 18, so we’ll just have to put him on hold until we find out something further. Withers Stakes winner UNCLE HEAVY is spending some time away from track and has no listed works since his last race on February 3.
OTELLO, pointing for the Jeff Ruby Steaks, breezed five furlongs in 1:02 as he attempts to bounce back from a poor showing in the Holy Bull. THE WINE STEWARD continued on his road back with a :48 4/5 work.
Todd Pletcher’s once highly touted BE YOU, who was beaten a nose by Just Steele in his career debut, but finished ahead of Locked, finally broke his maiden in a pretty hot field going seven-furlongs in his sixth try, and did it convincingly, but is it too little too late for the Derby? He is owned by Mike Repole so they may try the Wood Memorial to find out.
Racing historian, author, and award-winning retired journalist for the Daily Racing Form and The Blood-Horse, Steve Haskin was inducted into the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame’s Media Roll of Honor in 2016. Known for his racing knowledge and insightful prose, he has been an exclusive contributor to Secretariat.com since 2020.
The 150-point Stakes start in 11 days and the Derby standing already shows seven horses with enough qualifying points. It is a balanced group in terms of running styles. You have 3 frontrunners (Dornoch, Track Phantom, No More Time), 3 stalkers (Timberlake, Deterministic, Domestic Product) and 1 closer (Sierra Leone).
The Louisiana Derby, Arkansas Derby, Florida Derby, Blue Grass, Wood Memorial and Santa Anita Derby have been historic and consequential races defining the mettle of every 3-year-old crop.
Since 1990 the Florida Derby has produced 10 Derby winners (30%) if you count Maximum Security and discount year 2020.
This year I feel like Todd Pletcher could have the least number of Derby runners since 2011.
The Hall of Fame trainer has won 7 Florida Derbies, 7 Wood Memorial Stakes, 5 Arkansas Derbies, 5 Louisiana Derbies and 4 Blue Grass Stakes. But this kind of success led to general perception that he is about April stars and Derby flops.
Last year Todd Pletcher won the Louisiana Derby with Kingbarns, the Florida Derby with Forte and the Blue Grass with Tapit Trice. He got 3 horses in the 2023 Wood Memorial but none made enough points. This year does not seem as prolific …
Be You and the undefeated Tuscan Sky will have to deal with Deterministic , Domestic Product and Just a Touch to get at least the 50 points for the runner up in the Wood Memorial. Maybe, any of them could instead go to the Blue Grass where he will have to contend with Sierra Leone, Timberlake and any Baffert horse.
Pletcher’s Agate Road it is the one more likely to get in the Derby via the Jeff Ruby Stakes.
Fierceness chances in the Florida Derby have to be answered by astrology and biorhythm tools. Dornoch and the amazing Conquest Warrior look like the main winning threats to the champ.
Antiquarian will be seeking Derby points in the Louisiana Derby but he will have a hard time against the likes of Track Phantom, Catching Freedom, Honor Marie and Common Defense. Also, the possible presence of Resilience, Nash and Hall of Fame would limit the chances of the son of Peservationist.
I am sure Pletcher will ensure the most advantageous placing for his horses … after all he holds the record of most Derby runners thanks to his unique organizational skills.
Exciting times coming in the road to the Derby … fingers crossed that all the horses remain sound and healthy for the upcoming critical months.
Some of those colts you mentioned could be denied entry because at least two (and perhaps 3) would qualify through the UAE Derby. That race, the only non-U.S. race in the regular road, has produced zero winners of 19 Ky Derby runners. That stat isn’t so bad in comparison to NO entries even on the board in the derby. Then we have the possibility of horses qualifying from the Japan and Europe roads. By the way, the eight big races starting on March 23 award 100-50-30-20-10 points.
I find it fascinating that two all-time leading trainers (Pletcher & Asmussen) who started their first derby runners around the same time, are a combined 2 wins with 89 starters in the derby, with 2 seconds apiece.
As derby hopefuls are running in fewer preps than in days gone by, the pressure is on to win sufficient points.
Another excellent post, Nelson.
The ownership team that purchased Deterministic as a yearling, reads like the Who’s Who of New Yeark racing. The principal owner, C Steve Duncker, is the Former Chairman of the New York Racing Association, and continues to serve of the Board of Directors. Also, he’s on the Board of the Jockey Club and Equibase. He’s a humble man that is deeply involved in children’s charitable funds. A class individual to say the least. It would be a great back story if he’s colt, Deterministic, wins this year’s Kentucky Derby.
If anyone watches the video of Afleet Alex’s Preakness…that turn of foot he makes,I’ve NEVER seen a more eye catching move in my life…like he was shot out of a Cannon. Jeremy, his jockey will readily admit he totally screwed up ky derby ride,where colt still had lingering lung infection. Tim (trainer of Alex) chose him at sale because what a cool customer Alex is. To this day you’ll never see a rocket blast turn of foot like that .
Go watch Arazi 1991 BC Juvenile win !!! but I was an Afleet Alex fan.
That was one of the most thrilling races I ever saw. When I visited Kentucky in 2019, Afleet Alex was one of the stallions I made sure to see.
Are all fast tracks the same?
Should speed/performance figures be considered significant?
What were the reasons for the significant differences in fractions and final times for the two KD Preps at GP and Tampa Bay?
Tampa Bay Derby – 25.25; 51.14; 1:16.21; 1:39.36; 1:45.47 – (Track- Fast) Eqb 82
Sam Davis———.23.52; 46.13; 1:10.81; 1:36.59; 1:43.26 – (Track- Fast) Eqb 94
Holy Bull———– 25.02; 50.53; 1:14.25; 1:39.28 1:46.07 – (Track- Fast) Eq – 92
FOY—————- 24.39; 48.14; 1:11.43; 1:36.95; 1:43.64 – (Track- Fast) Eq -102
TRACKS-
The differences in fractions above clearly suggest fast tracks are not alike. A fast track on a deep surface or one that is drying out from previously being impacted by rain fall are not alike.
SPEED /PERFORMANCE FIGURES
What contingencies are built into the Speed figure algorithm for a drying out track labeled fast? If any adjustment were made for the slow/fast track at Tampa Bay on Saturday. It was not reflected in the SPs.
No More Time won the Sam Davis in a faster time than Dornoch and was assigned an Equibase figure of 94 compared to Dornoch 102.
Domestic Product finished 2nd by 2L in the Holy Bull and was assigned an Equibase figure of 92. He won the TBD in a slower time and was assigned an Equibase figure of 82.
REASONS FOR SLOWER TIMES:
No More Time won the Sam Davis in one of the fastest times recorded for an 8 1/2F KD Prep for 2024. In his follow up race over the same distance and at the same venue records a time 2 seconds slower. Did No More Time bounce or regress between starts? No evidence of regression apparent.
Domestic Product finished 2nd by 2L in the Holy Bull completed in 1:46 plus. He won the TBD in 1:45 plus. Did DP make just a slight improvement between starts?
The times and Speed figures for the Holy Bull and TBD should be dismissed and/or ignored. They are not a true reflection of how fast the top entrants can run.
The beloved American Pharoah and California Chrome won their respective KDs in 2:03 plus. Their times falls below the average of the last 20 KDs which is 2:02 plus.
I guess time is only relevant when it comes to incarceration.
That Tampa Bay Derby reminded of the 2007 Blue Grass Stakes when Dominican nosed out Street Sense for the win on the fake dirt. In both races they ran 6 furlongs in 1:16+, but ran the 4th quarter in 23:17 and 23:18 respectively… both with blanket finishes.
I have no idea what to make of the speed figures, but the rest of the dirt races at Tampa Bay seemed to be at expected clips. My guess is that the final time was effected by the slow pace almost exclusively as opposed to a slow surface.
Will be interesting to see what Steve thinks about the TB derby.
Also, with respect to Speed Figures, it’ll be interesting what Timeform gives out for the Tampa Bay Derby as they adjust for pace in their final number. I think they are the only ones who pace adjust, but I could be wrong about that.
Craig Milkowski yesterday posted 96. So, if you go by what is roughly a 20 point difference between the two figure-makers, it seems TimeformUS was even less impressed with Domestic Product’s race than the Beyer people.
Thanks, I missed that. Equibase gave the winner an 82, which, if my conversion chart is right is in line with a 74 Beyer and a 94 Timeform US. That makes the Beyer SF the highest of the ones we know so far at an uninspiring 82.
I liked what I saw from the winner and there is a chance to get him next out at a juicy price. Prices seem to be driven by the numbers and connections, and Domestic Product could end up as “The other Chad” on Derby Day as many have already decided on Sierra Leone this year in much the same way that they were drawn to Tapit Trice last season.
The first race back off of dawdling fractions probably isn’t the time to have him anyway. I’d like to see a good second or third in the final prep for forward momentum, but without the spotlight of victory. Will be interesting to see if it ends up being Irad on Sierra Leone with Gaffalione staying on with Domestic Product or visa versa.
Thoughts on the TBD:
No More Time’s trainer says his colt will likely not race again before the derby. I’m sure the owners will offer a better viewpoint. Eight weeks off, no race beyond 8.5f, and an inexperienced trainer is not a formula for derby success.
The top three finishers earned a “preliminary” BSF of 82. That’s pretty weak, even for early March.
Little respect is being shown for the performance of Grand Mo the First. Starting from post 9, he raced wide the entire trip and was bumped slightly by the eventual winner. He went the final half furlong in six seconds, losing by about a neck.
Some horses fire after breaks in between.
Yes, some horses do “fire” after a 2-month layoff, but not in the Ky Derby. As for NMT, he had a similar layoff and was disappointing in his return.
Winston, here some ‘facts’ to muddle over with the Tampa Bay Derby result. When Destin broke the track record, held by Street Sense, in the Tampa Bay Derby Todd Pletcher didn’t run the colt again before the Derby.
In the Kentucky Derby, Destin ran poorly. However, in the Belmont Stakes Destin just missed winning by a whisker.
No More Time’s time was not fast in the Tampa Bay Derby so will he run well in the Kentucky Derby but bad in the Belmont stakes? Who knows?
Perhaps the biggest riddle is how well will No More Time run in the Belmont Stakes especially as it’s at Saratoga this year and 2 furlongs shorter. Ha ha Ah, racing, always a puzzle but pure pleasure when you solve the riddle.
I would not classify No More Time’s trainer as inexperienced, somewhat unknown possibly.
He is currently ranked number 19 on the Trainers list on Blood Horse, not but a few places down from some very well known trainers. One of his trainees placed 3rd in one of the Saudi Cup Carnivale races.
As to a layoff between now and the Kentucky Derby that is not that unusual in this day and time. Even the most highly regarded trainers do not run their Derby trainees in the 100 point races that are coming up.
I have no away of knowing how No More Time or any other colt for that matter will perform in the Derby. More than once we have seen totally unexpected wins.
This year”s Derby Crop is an unusual one to me. Many of the top tier horses have been injured or sick and scratched from their preps. Handicapping the Derby this year will be a challege I would think.
Speed in my humble opinion does not always win the race. In a 20 horse field there are so many variables (know I am preaching to choir here). Post position, track and weather conditions; bumping; bad breaks from the gate etc. More like the Bumper Cars at Buckroe Beach, Virginia years ago.
We’re discussing the derby. Tell me what trainer with so little experience has won the derby in the past few decades. As for the two-month layoff, a derby win by NMT would be unprecedented.
How many years since a horse prevailed in Derby from rail? Thirty- eight.
A Kentucky bred with strong California connections, Sweet Azteca— patiently handled by her trainer and today by her rider—she ran brilliantly,for a first time two turns to defeat a mare like Adare Manor who herself had been unbeaten at one mile, in three previous starts….Ziebarth is California royalty, in breeding circles, and her touch is all over this beautiful grey filly….the waiting….the developing of a grade one winning filly. .
And Miramahdi’s call of the race is as good a call as I’ve heard since prime Durkin….
Yes Matthew, I’d agree with you that Mirahmadi is the best announcer in the US.
1,216 pounds of pure power this 4-year-old … Sweet Azteca will be a memorable miler for sure and possible the next Champion Female Sprinter…
Guess you all know Sharp Azteca was sold to Japan and is now standing there for 2024.
Looking forward to his foals from those Sunday Silence line mares.
Congratulations Sweet Azteca!
I’m an admirer of her paternal grandfather Freud, an outstanding New York sire who is a full brother to Giant’s Causeway. I was happy to see his granddaughter perform so well. I wish her many more victories in the future,
And 2nd dam a full to Tiznow and there’s the Giants Causeway–Tiznow influence, from that 2000 Classic battle!…
Excuse me, Tizsweet, a full to Tiznow is the 3rd dam of Sweet Azteca— …
Whichever dam it is, I’m sure Sweet Azteca got help from her mother’s side also. She has a very interesting combination of genes, and it certainly worked out well.
Sharp Azteca was a great miler, glad he has successful offspring.
Me too Jiffy!
No More Time is knocking on the door while Domestic Product is #9. Without his jockey change from Paco Lopez he might have won. As it is, was a whisker behind. I thought he won but he’s a smaller horse.
I think No More Time moves into the top 20, if for no other reason than that he now has 45 points. I don’t foresee a big kerfuffle in Steve’s rankings, except a possible rejiggering of the placement of Domestic Product.
Can this triple crown trail get any weirder? That was a GRASS RACE finish. I was pleased that Domestic Product and No More Time ran one-two. NOT pleased that no one who bet on the race (or the pick five, or various other bets) could win a plugged nickel.
Let’s hope the Carolina-Duke game is more predictable — and that I don’t have a cardiac event at some point. Go Heels!
The Tampa Bay resembled those Barrier Trials that they use in Hong Kong for training…
They all fell for Irad Ortiz’s strategy… Domestic Product has already ran two races with leisurely pace.
Yes, Nelson, that’s what it looked like. They have similar Barrier Trials in Australia as well.
Ha ha That’s exactly what I thought, Ms Blacktype. At least the race finally got started, I thought they might cancel it at one stage.
An argument for bringing back bookies. That was the golden age, certainly so in New York.
My relatives would be up for that, ‘boots and all.’
Ms B,
I bet if there was no clock you wouldn’t have guessed it was slow. Same for others who made similar comments.
Domestic Product won in a photo finish, No More Time 2nd, Grand Mo 3rd.
No More Time now has 45 points which should get him in the Derby. YAY!!!
I’ve become a fan too. The most unassuming little colt.
Agree!!!
The “stoopers” are stooping at Tampa! Races nine, ten eleven all tickets are good……
Tampa Bay Derby a non-betting event….
Oh the Joy!
Tampa’s 12th race canceled
TVG not accepting bets for Tampa—-their tote system is not working….
Race possibly delayed. No lights, gets dark around 6:30.
Tote delays everywhere on East Coast.
RE: Tampa Bay Derby
Key No More Time on top, with Heartened, Good Money, Domestic Product and Grand Mo the First underneath in a $2.00 superfecta p/w wager.
That is, 7/1-4-5-9/ 1-4-5-9/ 1-4-5-9.
Safe trips to all.
Very good bet Bill…
I am going with a (0.60) Trifecta box with 1-Heartened, 4-Good Money, 5-Domestic Product, 7-No More Time, 10-Sturdy.
Good Luck in all your bets…and
Safe runs for every one.
Good luck to you as well, Nelson.
The Tote Delay is taking some time now… not sure what the issue is but hope they solve it be promptly…!
Interesting. Major bets coming in, just before the gates open no doubt, at several tracks I would think. The average bettor doesn’t stand a chance anymore.
None wavering event at Tampa Bay Downs?
Nice going Bill !!!
Oooops. Spoke to soon!!!
Yeah, Domestic Product won it by a whisker. No More Time and Domestic Product proved they were the two best horses in the race. A great race to be sure.
Tampa Bay Derby is an interesting race and have a 5 horse box trifecta of 1 – 4 – 5- 7 – 10 and $5 show bet. 10 intrigues me though still a maiden but has 3 Maiden against some pretty good horses , LOCKED, Domestic Product , Corporate Power and came in 2nd or 3rd. But he looks to be a closer running style and with Junior Alvarado on him and he has 2 1 1/8 races under his belt and just raced 2 weeks ago. Usually don’t like maidens against winner but will see what happens
My $5 show bet is on …. 10.
Two surprises today in Derby preps: Tacitus and Hailkal.
Divine Image wins over the boys in the prep for the Dubai Derby.
Vino Rosso won his first race back since the Travers.
Thunder Snow 2nd in his prep, but no worries. He is just warming up.
Congratulations to all (especially Close Hatches dam of Tacitus).
Good races today. Derby field is heating up.
My FB post from March 09, 2019. That is when I was really on top of horse racing.
Steve, do you have a number that I can send you a text message? I have a photo I think you’ll like
Thanks!
Admission to Aqueduct – FREE
(even on Wood Mem. day w/ four-five other stakes)
Round trip Boston to JFK – $139
Aqueduct will be gone in 2026, not too much time left. May have Derby winner this good year. Hoping for not too many Linda Rice entries. Looks like shippers such as Brad Cox horses in other races. Might have time to view past Wood Mem/Derby winners with stereoscope at NYC public library.
Go for it Discopartner! You’ll have a great day! Aqueduct is an historic park! The Wood Memorial has showcased some greats!
As someone whose current home track is the about-to-close-in-three-months Golden Gate Fields, I say go for it, too!
Thanks, thinking of flying there and back all in one day, alot of flights, track is next to airport. Shippers coming in from all over enhances it.
Going with Domestic Product for home run.
Nice pick Mike, he beat my horse by a whisker.
However, the fact that it was a “none wagering event” was something that I’ve never seen before.
Thanks Bill. Earlier, on fence between the two.
The gr3 Santa Isabel is a pretty decent field… Bob’s NY bred Kinza 4/5 ML but two grand daughters of Tiznow, Ultimate Authority and She’s a Tempest are talented, and Nat V Belle won her debut in good time…..I love She’s a Tempest! Hope she makes the Oaks, she’s a good homebred daughter of Connect ….
Per Rick Dutrow, White Abarrio on an extended vacation snd he will wait for WA to tell him when he is ready to return to the track. No timetable on when he will return.
No explanation found for his poor performance in the Saudi Cup.
Hopefully we will see him soon.
Earlier today I was watching videos of past Tampa Bay Derbies. I came across the one with Street Sense and Any Given Saturday. From the naked eyes it was a dead heat. But the win went to Street Sense by a NS.
Whatever happened to Any Given Saturday?
He will be remembered for his epic stretch battle with Street sense in the TBD. But more impotently he will be remembered for what occurred at Monmouth Park in the 2007 Haskell.
After finishing 8th by 10 1/2L in the 2007 KD. He met Hard Spun (2nd KD) and Curlin (3rd KD) in the Haskell. In the 2007 KD Any Given Saturday finished 8L behind hard Spun and 2L behind Curlin. None of that mattered as he destroyed both EnRoute to a 4 1/L victory. Surely, he had established himself with such a devastating win as the top 3YO for the 2nd half of the year.
When Any Given Saturday next met Curlin and Hard Spun in the BCC. He finished 28 1/2L & 24 1/2L respectively behind both.
A similar thing happened with Princess of Sylmar and Beholder. Princess of Sylmar surprisingly defeated Beholder in the KY Oaks. When they next met in the Distaff. She finished 16L behind Beholder in last position.
TREND?
Counter Point, Any Given Saturday was returned from South Korea and is now at Old Friends in Kentucky
Thanks for info.
It’s official, Locked is off the Derby trail, with a knee injury. He will not compete in any of the Triple Crown races.
Well,
That’s unfortunate. I wanted to see him run as a 3YO. Very few are aware that he recorded one of the fasted times (1:36.00) out the Saratoga’s 8F shoot. One has to search hard and long to find a comparable time by older horses.
Really not surprised.
Thanks Bill! When do you think he returns?
I wouldn’t hazard a guess Mike, although there are plenty of graded races coming up in the summer and the fall, possibly one of the BC races. Or the connections just might retire him to stud if that knee does heal properly. Stay tuned.
Thanks!
Edit to say “doesn’t heal properly”.
Locked off Triple Crown trail. Frayed a ligament in left knee, per Aron Wellman of Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners.
My apologies, Mark. I didn’t see your comment regarding Locked.
No big deal Bill , Enjoy the rest of your day.
Bad news, but thanks Mark for the information.
I read that Tyler Gaffalione will have the mount on Liberal Arts in the ARK Derby. C.Torres has been his regular jockey though Tyler rode him once to a second place finish in a MSW. Liberal Arts is in good form and a good third should get the points to get into the KY Derby 1 /8 distance of the ARK Derby should suit this big son of Arrogate just fine.
I am on the wagon as well.
Justify has been disqualified from SA Derby win and purse redistributed. So, in Justify we have a KD winner whose points were nullified by his disqualification.
Interesting!
I just hope Churchill doesn’t decide to disqualify Justify on his Kentucky Derby win on that basis.
Unlikely!
The CHRB will be paying the $300,000 to Ruis and order the disqualification of Justify.
The connections for Justify can appeal the judge’s decision.
Who knows what CDI might do.
At this point I would not be surprised what they do.
Ms Blacktype, you may wish to read this article from the Paulick Report it provides an interesting read.
“No, Justify Isn’t Going To Lose His Triple Crown Title; Here’s Why”
Natalie Voss Dec 5, 2023
Great tip, Davids — thanks!
Ms B, my remark about CDI was a somewhat feeble attempt at sarcasm and not to be taken seriously.
Justify won all 3 races fairly and squarely and passed all of the drug screens.
CDI regardless of their zeal in what appears to be a smear campaign against Baffert has no leg to stand on to disqualify Justify from the Kentucky Derby win.
As I mentioned in my comment, the connections can appeal this decision.
Lynda as usual you put up a good comment…..mewonders if Justify gets voted into the Hall of Fame this year ……Triple Crowns are very rare, especially now that the Derby horses skip the Preakness and regroup, coming into the Belmont fresher…. hard to believe horses sometimes ran in a fourth stakes between the Preakness and Belmont!…
I think he will. Gun Runner is nominated as well.
Last year they voted in both Chrome and Arrogate so maybe both will get in.
Couple of mares I think are deserving as well.
Guess I would not want to have this responsibility, LOL.
Absolutely love Gun Runner and if I could only vote for either him or Justify, it would have to be Gun Runner!
The 2018 race? Wow. I certainly hope five-year-long court battles do not become a trend.
I am very afraid to submit replies to comments on KD prospects who supporters are high on. Why? I can never determine if said replies will be objectively viewed. My replies are never intended to offend, disparage or to get anyone off a particular horse.
My assessment of prospects on the KD Trail is probably far more extensive than most. My assessment of prospects from the barns of TP and BB is different when compared to my assessments of prospects from other barns. I rely on historic factors for some amount of guidance. But I do not ignore traditional assessment criteria.
Deterministic captured my attention when I reviewed his debut MSW win. He was added to my what list. Although he was off for a longtime, he was a betting interest in one the KD Future poll and I placed a small wager on him.
The colt recently won the Gotham, impressing many. The professional manner of victory and given the lengthy layoff his win signaled he is a top shelf colt. I was happy that he validated being on my watch list. But despite my likeness for the colt. I am not fixated on him.
Just A Touch the runner up in Gotham was also a last out debut MSW winner. He was assigned an Equibase figure of 100 for his debut win. For Deterministic debut win he was assigned an 87. The last out MSW winner with the lower Equibase figure by 13 points, defeated his comparable opponent. SFs are meaningless.
As a fan of Deterministic, do I celebrate his win and ignore the runner up? Certainly not! There are pertinent factors that indicate he is more likely to win the KD than Deterministic. But to be cognizant of these factors, one has to operate with an open mind whilst avoiding fixation.
WHAT DOES HISTORY REFLECT?
Deterministic is a January foal and whilst the number with such foaling dates to contest the KD was not researched. Only one with a January foaling date HAS emerged the winner in the last 47 years. That winner was Grindstone, and it took a lengthy photo to separate top two. He prevailed by a NS.
Just A Touch is a May foal. He is 3 months Deterministic junior. May foals that display exceptional ability early are amongst the most dangerous on the KD Trail. For those who think I do not have receipts to support my claim. By comparison, over the last 47 years there have 4 KD winers with May foaling dates.
May foals are considered late foals and considered to be at a physical maturity disadvantage for the KD run in May. But many have defied their physical maturity disadvantage and defeat their significantly older opponents. See Below:
2009 – Mine That – Pioneerof the Nile- Musket Man – All May foals
2019 – maximum Security – Country House -Code Of honor – Tacitus – All May foals
2010 – KD post time favorite/ Champion 3YO – Luckin At Lucky -May foal
1981 – Pleasant Colony- May Foal
1985 – Spend A Buck -May Foal- recorded the fastest 8 split in KD history.
1995 – Thunder Gulch – May foal
2017 – Authentic – May Foal
1964 – Northern Dancer- May Foal – Most famous May foal of all (set NSR in KD)
The fact that Deterministic defeated Just A Touch is meaningless regarding the KD. If JAT makes the KD, he will be by then 2 month older and 2 months stronger. That is sufficient for him to erase the 2L from the Gotham. Additionally, he has history on his side. But it remains a horse race and any result is possible.
But on a more relevant note. Fixation on a particular horse at the expense of all others and history, should be a thing of the past. The results of the KD in the last 5 years should act as a guide.
A lot of space and words to state your preference of Just a Touch over Deterministic.
Maybe Steve has the wrong person as editor and content manager for comments. It should be you, Bill.
LOL
No thanks, Counter Point, I wouldn’t want the job.
Feel free to express yourself, without regard to the number of words and space it takes to do same.
Have a nice day.
If you are intent on arguing against a January foal winning the Kentucky Derby, you should provide more data than the last time the derby was won by a January foal. It may interest you to know that in the last 10 runnings of the derby (not counting 2020), only 12 January foals contested the event. Six of them were longshots at between 30-1 and 66-1. There were no January foals in the derbies of 2019 and 2014.
Only 4 of the 12 had odds in single-digits:
* Epicenter, 2nd in the derby at 4-1 in 2022
* My Boy Jack, 5th at 6-1 in 2018
* Firing Line, 2nd at 9-1 in 2015
* Verrazano, 14th at 8-1 in 2013
One of the longshots, Battle of Midway (40-1), was 3rd in the 2017 derby. For having so few entries, January foals have done well in recent years. I won’t list the many well-backed runners the January foals finished ahead of. Deterministic isn’t one of my top 5 choices at this still early date in the derby trail, but it is certainly not because of his foaling month.
Exactly!
It’s a ridiculous argument, Id prefer to have a January goal, simply because of age—I do not consider win patterns , I consider physical maturity …
The majority of Thoroughbred foals in the United States are born in February and March, followed by the month of April then May.
The fewest number of foals are born in January and June.
A study on the actual birth date of all Kentucky Derby winners shows that 60% were born in February and March.
Therefore, while your comment about January foals not winning the Kentucky Derby but once in the past 47 years is true, it can easily be explained by the small number of foals born in January that make it to the race track and make it through the grueling process of being trained up to accumulate points to earn a gate in the Kentucky Derby.
Well said, Lynda.
Justify March 28
Always Dreaming February 25
Nyquist March 10
American Pharoah February 2
California Chrome February 18
Orb February 24
I’ll Have Another April 1
Animal Kingdom March 20
Super Saver March 18
Mine That Bird May 10
Big Brown April 10
Street Sense February 23
Barbaro April 29
Giacomo February 16
Smarty Jones February 28
Funny Cide April 20
War Emblem February 20
Monarchos February 9
Fusaichi Pegasus April 12
Charismatic March 13
Real Quiet March 7
Silver Charm February 22
Grindstone January 23
Thunder Gulch May 23
Go for Gin April 18
Sea Hero March 4
Lil E. Tee March 29
Strike the Gold March 21
Unbridled March 5
Sunday Silence March 25
Good luck to No More Time in the Tampa Bay Derby. This race and Tampa Bay Downs would gain credibility if some of these do well in the K. Derby.
Tampa Bay Downs has credibility.
Street Sense won the 2007 Tampa Bay Derby – Two races later he won the KD.
Super Saver finished 3rd in the TBD – Two races later he won the KD.
Tacitus won the 2019 TBD – Two races later he finished 4th in the KD and was promoted to 3rd.
Sorry I missed the notes below on Endlessly yesterday; I decided to re-post my comment here at the top so others will be more likely to read it.
I’m intrigued by the fact that McCarthy now thinks E will do fine on dirt because in a Feb. 10 Bloodhorse article titled “In Seasonal Debut Endlessly Takes El Camino Real Derby,” the author noted:
“…Mike McCarthy…said Endlessly likely will soon return to turf racing. He said that…Endlessly only looks steady on [dirt] and seems to prefer the grass.”
That was a month ago, so perhaps Endlessly has shown more affinity for dirt in recent weeks. I was impressed by his run in the El Camino and am following him with interest.
Nelson, you may be interested in Race 8 at Oaklawn Park on Saturday. The Tapit colt, Always Be Smart, trained by Nick Zito will be running. He’s from the same Courtly Dee family you posted about earlier. Not one of the favorites but it’s still early days.
Thanks for the heads-up… in fact Always Be Smart is a plauisble long shot (20-1 ML) at 1 1/8 mile. I like that Rafael Bejarano stays for his second start after a lay off.
It is nice to see Repole landing a hand to Nick Zito … $100K for a son of Tapit seemed to be a good deal after his promising debut last November…
Always be Smart worked 5 furlong in 1:00 4/5 signaling that he will be improving leaps and bounds this time… and we also have the bragging rights courtesy of his pedigree…
Yes, Nelson, I thought you would enjoy the whole ‘story’ surrounding the Colt. He may be a slow developer which is unfashionable these days but at least you get to see the progression over years which is a bonus. Fingers crossed.
Evidently, Otto the Conqueror is off the Derby trail. After winning the Remington Springboard Mile, he finished a well beaten 6th in the Southwest Stakes, the race that put Mystik Dan in the spotlight. Asmussen has OTC pointed to the 1-mile Hot Springs LS, on 3-23, at Oaklawn Park. It appears Asmussen considers OTC as a middle distance, sprinter type.
Does anyone have information or ‘racing chatter’ about the Bob Baffert trained, Juddmonte owned/bred, Constitution colt Canada Gate?
Canada Gate is debuting this Saturday at Santa Anita – Race 4. Canada Gate comes from the same family as Landaluce.
Bob also has Winterfell, possibly the last Arrogate making his debut in that race ..
I like Sadler,’s colt Pony Express… Drew I side but I think he is fast …
Thanks Matthew and good luck. I was going to Flemington today but we have a heat wave of over 100 for the next three days. They should have called the races off. I’m skipping a play tonight because of the heat and was going to see Judy Colins tomorrow night but was able to change the booking to Wednesday night when it’s only 68 with rain.
What chance Tampa Bay is going to be a wet track? I can’t remember so many wet tracks for the Derby preps.
Matthew, it’s a fascinating race with ‘possibly’ a field of future stakes winners, at least six anyway.
Well Davids. …Vlahos just ran away from them! :21 2/5 no problemo! Drew off to win by many, in 1:15 3/5…..$35K bargain, by Kantharos ..
I know he is not eligible for the Derby, but does anyone know why Nysos has not worked since Feb 25? Scratched last weekend but should have ad a work.
You have no doubt read this from a Brad Free article last Sunday but in case you haven’t:
“Baffert said Saturday that Nysos is fine physically. “In sports they have analytics; trainers, we have gut feeling. My original plan to was to just to wait. I don’t need to run him [Sunday]. I just might wait for the Santa Anita Derby.”
Probably take that with a grain of salt though. Ha ha
Have a very limited short list.
No More Time – hoping for a good showing this weekend.
Honor Marie – not giving up on him yet.
Deterministic – now on my list. Love his pedigree. Saw a brief video of him being hand grazed. Glowing coat, nice condition. I think you can tell a lot about a horse seeing them without blankets, coolers, saddle etc.
Conquest Warrior is interesting.
Forever Young still on my list.
Hi Lynda
Welcome aboard the Deterministic bandwagon.
I exchanged emails with Anne Archer Hinkle, (Owner and Director of Operations at Hinkle Farms) regarding the naming of Deterministic.
She mentioned the team that bought Deterministic, as a yearling, came up with his name and added “it’s very fitting”.
His pedigree reflects an excellent mix of speed, class and stamina, IMO. He has the demeanor of a street fighter, and the tenacity of a bulldog, something that you want to see in the KD twenty horse field.
Trainer Christophe Clement mentioned four options moving forward, the Arkansas Derby, Florida Derby, Wood and the Blue Grass.
Stay tuned.
I like Deterministic but I endeavor to stay within the bounds of reality. He is a January 30th foal. His best opponent in the Gotham emerged as Just A Touch, a fellow last out MSW winner.
Deterministic is a full 3 months older than JAT and is likely to be the stronger of the two. Yet he only defeated him by 2L and JAT was 7W on the turn.
Just A Touch was assigned an Equibase figure of 100 for his debut win, whereas Deterministic was assigned an 87 for his debut win. In the ability department there isn’t much of a difference between the two. with the edge likely belonging to JAT.
In the pedigree department JAT’s dam line features more stamina. His dam sire is Tapit who needs no introduction. His 2nd dam was sired by Ikari, a son of TC winner Seattle Slew. His 3rd dam was sired by Alydar.
Should the two get to the KD it will be interesting if both ermee as the top entrants.
Spoke with her for 45 minutes earlier today. Really nice person. I have lots of background on him now.
Hi Steve
Yes, Ms. Archer took the time out of her busy schedule to reply to my email, which I thought was very gracious of her.
Hopefully, you’ll share some of the background that she supplied to you.
Thanks Steve.
The #1 & #2 rankings were assigned to Fierceness and Locked in just about every KD list made public. I considered these rankings to be known defiance of history. TP has been sending entrants to the KD since 2000. A profile of the trainer’s program should be established by now. This certainly should influence the ranking of his horses. But I am not an analyst.
In the week 7 rankings Cox has the #2, #10, #13, & #15 prospects. Pletcher has the #3, #17 & #20. I guess cream will always rise to the top.
Tood Pletcher has won the Tampa Bay Derby 6 times in the last 20 years. He will be represented by the last out MSW winner Heartened in the 2024 renewal. None of his TBD winners were next out MSW winners. Given the aforementioned, this colt should be immediately faded. But that wouldn’t be prudent given TP is the most dangerous trainer in America.
Heartened is Godolphin top and bottom. His sire Street Boss and dam sire Bernardini are Godolphin stallions. He was purchased by St Elias Stables for $55,000. St Elias Stable might be luckier than the operation knows. His dam Rare Friend was previously owned by Godolphin and was entered i a 2020 Keeneland Mixed sale and was purchased for $100,000.
This mare might not have been sold if it was discovered earlier that Bernardini was such a monster broodmare sire. A price of $55,000 for a yearling from a Bernardini mare purchased for $100k has to be considered a bargain.
Street Boss is the sire of 2022/2023 Australian HOTY Anamoe who is the only 7 times G1 winner for Godolphin. Street Boss has therefore proven he can produce top quality progenies. Bernardini needs no introduction as a broodmare sire. He has several other promising prospects on The KD trail that do not include Nyson and Knightsbridge.
Heartened is a very big colt with a high knee action consistent with that of a turf horse. He appears not to be as fast as many in the field but fast enough to win if a stronger pace causes stress on the top entrant late. I have a funny feeling Pletcher will have this colt primed for an upset. I recommend using him.
Heartened was who I was interested in also, but I might just end up watching this week.
A quick note about Pletcher in the Derby; Lets say that a trainer has 10 Ky Derby starters (one each year for 10 years) and each year his horse receives 10% of the action in the Win Pool. After 10 years of this, the expectation would be that he would have won 1 Derby (10 X .1). Even though it’s a little less likely that he actually won 2, if he did win 2 it wouldn’t necessarily mean that he’s a horse whisperer. Likewise, if he actually won 0 it wouldn’t necessarily mean that his charges are auto-tosses going forward.
If we note the Off-Odds of all of Pletcher’s Ky Derby starters along with the corresponding probability of victory (adjusting for takeout), we would find that Pletcher should only have been expected to win 2.79 Kentucky Derby’s so far. After this years Derby is run that 2.79 may well swell up to a 3 and it may take another 3-5 years for it to become a 4.
I say all of this because I imagine that if Pletcher would (for the sake of argument) reel off another Derby win or two in the next few years, people will still say “What does that make him now 3 for 60 or 70?”.
Lastly, If I would have bet every Pletcher Derby starter that went off as a contender (12-1 or less) betting the amount required to cash a $1000 ticket, I would have a $75 profit (3%). Obviously nothing great, but not exactly flushing money down the drain either.
It’s been a while since I did my little Pletcher study (back in the summer), but, just in case you want to look into it, I didn’t include Trippi or Impeachment as contenders (under 12-1) because had they not been in entry with High Yield and Commendable they would have been way north of 12-1.
Anyway, I could go either way on Pletcher, but if I really like the horse I probably won’t be swayed by his record.
No More Time ran the fastest 8 1/2 f. prep, not Dornoch as previously stated. But, NMT got a 94 vs 102 Equibase speed figure. I doubt the Tampa track was faster than Gulfstream. Maybe they saw something in the Dornoch race that others have missed. They were both in front the whole way, a difficult way to have to win races, especially the Derby. The race horse commenters used to insult race horses by saying a Gr. 1 race had a Gr. 3 field, not it’s down to ranking it an Allowance field in the Tampa Bay Derby.
I don’t think I’m going too far out on a limb by suggesting that the top 3 horses above will not be in the top 5 come the first Saturday in May. We know of Fierceness’s inconsistencies and Timberlake hasn’t passed the eye test (much more important than speed figs). I’m not nitpicking w/ Steve’s choices as there is not much to go on. With how racing is today- it’s darn near impossible to rank these inexperienced colts and Steve does a great job in detailing each horse’s potential based off the few times we have seen them run. I am more charged up with this crop than I have been the last several. There looks to be several that can win. Lastly, the decision to not run Nysos is everything that is wrong in the industry. If healthy, please run your horses. The game will continue to lose fans if the $100 millionaires w/ their syndicates continue to coddle these colts until they reach the breeding shed..which is now, unfortunately, by the late summer of their 3 yr old season.
“Lastly, the decision to not run Nysos is everything that is wrong in the industry.”
There was a decision not to transfer the colt before the specific deadline set by CD for horses under the keep and care of banned trainers. Loyalty to Bob Baffert trumped any desire to run in the KD.
In any event there is no guarantee that Nysos would be competitive in the KD despite his record against CA based opponents. Point Given was a $1.80 post time favorite and the finished 5th by 11L.
Sorry- I meant not running him last week.
Noted.
Has not worked in 12 days. …
Horses aren’t as durable now compared to fifty years ago. Blame that on idiots breeding for speed only,not
for soundness.
Steve Haskin mentioned below his perceptiveness regarding his early identification of Always Dreaming as a potential KD winner. I remember his take on the allowance winner at the time. The fact that the colt went on to win the KD added astuteness to the resume of the award-winning writer and historian.
Always Dreaming became a Red Flag KD winning contender for me after his FL Derby victory. Now this isn’t an attempt to diminish Steve’s perceptiveness. But rather to highlight how I arrive at my Red Flag assignments. Or probably when I become a malcontent.
The AOC in which Always Dreaming was identified as a live KD winning prospect featured pedestrian internal factions and a slow final time of 1:53.44, Now, this why I regard Todd Pletcher as the most dangerous trainer in America without equal.
Four weeks after that AOC, Always Dreaming won the FL Derby in 1:47.47. That’s approximately 6 seconds faster than his AOC time. Who were the last 6 of 11 FL Derby winners to record a 1:47 plus winning time. See Below:
2009 – Quality Road ——— 1:47.72
1996 – Unbridled’s Song —–1:47.85
1994 – Holy Bull ————–1:47.66
1984 – Swale —————–1:47.60
1978 – Alydar—————–1:47.00
Honest Pleasure ————–1:47.80
Big Red Flag questions:
Was Always Dreaming any part of the above 6 before his FL Deby win? No!
In any of AD’s prior races were there any indicators he could improve 6 seconds over 9F in 4 weeks? No!
Folks, I am neither a conspiracy theorist nor a TP hater. But there was absolutely nothing normal about Always Dreaming unimaginable improvement in 4 weeks. And whatever caused this improvement would surely have a negative impact on the colt in the future.
He went on to the KD after some never before seen unrestrainable exercise spins. He folded quickly at the top of the stretch to be beaten 14L in the Preakness. After being beaten a combined 231/2L in the Jim Dandy and Travers .He was out for 7 months, Upon his return he proved uncompetitive in 3 starts and was retired.
We saw a similar situation with Fierceness. After finishing 20L last but one. He returned 4 weeks later to demolish a BCJ field. As the 1/5 favorite in the Holy Bull, he tracked a pedestrian pace and plodded home 3rd.
Using Always Dreaming’s post big win career as a measure, The prospects for Fierceness as a competitive force in the division remains remote at best.
Many handicappers, myself and apparently Steve included, recognized exactly what we were seeing in Always Dreaming’s AOC win. Raw time was irrelevant. He ran as fast as he needed to run and was dominant throughout. When the pace is that slow, a fast final time was impossible. That’s why track meets employ pacesetters to insure a fast final time. With AD, it was all visual. As I’ve stated before, I expected him to win the Florida and Kentucky derbies. I am not a proponent of Fierceness, or TP for that matter, but many of us see in Conquest Warrior what we saw in AD. Frankly, I’m surprised at your reliance on raw time across various tracks, distances, and circumstances.
Always Dreaming- going by time is a no no. Could the improvement be from the lack of experience and the inevitable jump from a young colt racing into their own?
“My Three Year Olds”, of this crop…..
#1 Conquest Warrior! …..the rest includes: Sierra Leone…Mystik Dan… Fierceness……and the horse I intend to bet big: Honor Marie….
1) Honor Marie loves Churchill!
2) The Derby is a tough race, with bumping —Honor Marie runs with a low action, and while not large framed–Honor Marie is stoutly built—his low center of gravity, and his sturdy physique –are plusses!..
3) Honor Marie is a deep closer with a good kick! The Derby has always been kind, to horses with a REAL kick!..
Am playing Honor Marie! I love the bargain price, for this son of a real undervalued sire, a real good miler, whose Met Mile was top three, for me in the last 50 years…(Honor Code)…
What in particular has attracted you to Conquest Warrior?
Both times I saw him race were “wow”! The big colt overcame several steadies, and early bumps…..and kept his ears pinned and delivered ..then in his recent race was poetry in motion! Of the 2024 Derby horses he is the horse that I most look forward to seeing run….
I have run out of medication and am awaiting my caregiver to pick up my refill. I am therefore in The Twilight Zone whilst handicapping the Tampa Bay Derby field.
I lost on Domestic Product in the Holy Bull at his juicy price of 14/1. Obviously that price will not be likely on Saturday. I am an exponent of small wagers for large ROIs. Neither Domestic Product nor Not This Time finishing on top can provide the sort of ROI that fits into my model and therefore will not be the subject of my focus for the win. I also have no interest in either Good Money or Grand Mo
“Well, if you are not interested in one of the above four, do not bet on the race.” What about Sturdy? ” He is a maiden from 3 starts.” I know! But he is not your regular maiden. How so?
Locked on debut was beaten by Just Steel by 3 1/2L. A further 9 1/4L behind was fellow debutant Domestic Product. Locked was a next out winner by 7 1/4L. Finishing 2nd was the debutant Drum Roll Please and a fellow debutant named Sturdy was 3rd by 20 1/4L. Resilience finished 6th by 23 14L.
So Sturdy was beaten by Locked the subsequent (Keeneland G1 Futurity winner & BCJ 3rd) and Drum Roll Please (3rd Remsen and winner of the Jerome). He finished ahead of Resilience, the recent 4th place finisher in the Risen Star. The aforementioned indicates that Sturdy isn’t a regular maiden. Further, he finished 2nd to Domestic Product by 41/2L closing from last in a swiftly run 9F MSW.
An additional bit of information I consider noteworthy. Domestic Product is approximately 3 months older than Sturdy. After the 9F MSW, Sturdy was away from the races for 4 months. He returned in another 9F, MSW at Gulfstream Park and again closed from last to finish 2nd by a NK.
Sturdy is a May 20th foal with a lot of ability but is flying way under radar. With a decent pace expected in the TBD, he will be running late and given he should be better 2nd out off the layoff, he could get there at a price.
No More Time and Domestic Product appear to be the top two contenders in the Tampa Bay Derby. In an effort to secure Derby points (50 to the winner), a full field of eleven have been entered. First out maiden winner, Good Money, by Good Magic, out of a Distorted Humor mare, could spring an upset over the more seasoned NMT and DP. He’s trained by Chad Brown and with Irad Ortiz Jr. in the irons, Good Money demands respect, IMO.
On a side note, Endlessly, recent winner of the El Camino Real Derby, at Golden Gate, appears to be flying under the radar.
He’s won 4 out of 5 races, mostly on turf, which comes as no surprise being the son Oscar Performance. After a poor showing in the BC Juvenile Turf, Michael McCarthy entered him in the El Camino, where he made a strong rally to draw off by 1 1/2 lengths for the win. Going 9 furlongs, in 1:50.68 is pretty damn good over Golden Gate’s AWT.
Since his impressive win in the El Camino, he’s been working well for McCarthy over the Santa Anita track and could be pointed to the Santa Anita Derby. A second-place finish to one of the Baffert colts, could put him in the KD starting gate.
It’s a mystery to me why there’s been no comments about Endlessly on this blog.
Any thoughts and/or opinions regarding Endlessly would be appreciated.
Thanks.
Upon further review, Endlessly is listed as a “Probable” for the Jeff Ruby Steaks, on 3-23.
Did some work after your post. Let me put it this way the first half mile was PAR, from there to 3/4 the pace slowed a bit then the final time was PAR. Having noted that he took over the lead at the 16th pole, it was a PAR race for that class. Nothing more. Just my take
Bill,
Thanks in your note regarding Endlessly. I’ve watched all his races some live. He has an explosive turn of foot, and I really believe he is a turf/tapeta type horse. He is quality for sure, and I dont doubt that McCarthy will do what is best. If he goes to a dirt race , McCarthy believes he will be fine on that surface.
Thanks for the reply, Jeff.
Yes, I completely agree with you on all points.
Jeff
Just noticed that Endlessly is listed at 500-1 at Circa. Very enticing to say the least.
Yes Bill I noticed 500-1 at Circa. I took a small nibble
Good luck, Mark.
Wow- thanks for the information. Do you happen to know his Preakness odds? Though I believe it will be a harder race than the KD.
No, I haven’t seen the odds on Endlessly in the Preakness. Sorry.
Sorry I missed these notes on Endlessly yesterday. I’m intrigued by the fact that McCarthy now thinks E will do fine on dirt because in a Feb. 10 Bloodhorse article titled “In Seasonal Debut Endlessly Takes El Camino Real Derby,” the author noted:
“…Mike McCarthy…said Endlessly likely will soon return to turf racing. He said that…Endlessly only looks steady on [dirt] and seems to prefer the grass.”
That was a month ago, so perhaps Endlessly has shown more affinity for dirt in recent weeks. I was impressed by his run in the El Camino and am following him with interest.
If any horse can beat No More Time and Domestic Product in the TB Derby, it could be Grand Mo the First. Grand Mo finished an even third with trouble in the Swale Stakes (Feb 3) after a 4-month layoff. This will be his first dirt route. He has a hot trainer at the track and a switch to TBD’s leading rider. By Uncle Mo out of a Giant’s Causeway mare, his pedigree certainly won’t keep him from performing well at the 8.5f distance. I see him as the third choice behind the obvious favorites No More Time and Domestic Product. A very nice prep.
Are you concerned that despite Grand Mo’s pedigree, he has weakened on both turf and dirt in his two races beyond 5 1/2F?
Weakened? You must be thinking of Grand Mo the Second.
Hi Steve, another fine article.
The Unpredictable Fierceness!
We know has started 4 times and ran 2 great races. So, lets examine his bad races.
The Champagne:
Per charts he lunged at the start throwing the rider temporarily off balance, got bumped and jostled by Gold Sweep coming in when Sweet Soddy tucked in front shortly after start, raced wide on back stretch and later went 7 wide.
I watched the replays bot pan and head on, he was jostled and also got squeezed in between which the chart did not point out.
Holy Bull:
From HRN: “Fierceness’s troubles in the 1 1/16-mile Holy Bull began at the start. The chart noted that his head was turned when the starting gate snapped open. Jockey John Velazquez straightened him easily enough but could not keep his mount from quickly bumping Sea Streak. That collision ping-ponged him into Domestic Product, the eventual second-place finisher to Hades.
“He had a very rough start. I’ve watched it on replay several different times from several different angles,” Pletcher said during training hours at Palm Beach Downs. “He got sandwiched pretty hard on both sides and Johnny had to use him pretty hard to get the position we wanted. When a horse gets knocked around like that, it can take something out of them.””
I would say both times when he got squeezed after the start, he got winded and that was it.
Just hope he is training well with some bullets.
But my concern is it appears the two troubles he had was caused by breaking half a step slow which allowed the horses next to him shift into him. If he breaks a half step in the derby, he will be history as far as the derby is concerned.
Any thoughts on the above?
Yes the bad starts certainly didnt help and they have been addressed. You would hope he could overcome that and at least run better than he did. But maybe it discouraged him. Were not going to know until his next couple of races. Until then it’s all speculation.
In the past few weeks three three year olds have impressed me, all three not on a stakes—-Tuscan Sky, Maymun, Conquest Warrior….they have impressed, where stakes winners have not, not as much…..
Matthew, the Tampa Bay Derby field lacks luster. Poor Steve, magically make silk purses out of sow’s ears when it comes to the stakes races thus far. Have you heard anything on when Maymun might appear again, such a classy looking colt.
Tagging on to your comment, Davids — the Tampa Bay Derby drew an allowance-quality field. I find it exceptionally odd that trainers based in south Florida — such as Tuscan Sky — don’t ship over to Oldsmar for the easy pickings. Then again, this has been a bizarre Derby trail to say the least.
PS Still haven’t had a chance to check out the phenom Storm Boy but it’s on my list.
Oops, I meant Tuscan GOLD, although Fair Grounds-based Tuscan Sky isn’t that far away either.
Exactly Ms Blacktype. I’m dumbfounded, points are at a premium but it appears as though many trainers are hoping to get in to the Kentucky Derby by points achieved in the Florida Derby. Best of luck to them but I fear there is going to be some unhappy chappies when the dust settles.
The stature of the Tampa Bay Derby has really ebbed, and this year’s edition is among the weakest field ever for this prep. The omission of Tuscan Gold from the entries is surprising to me as well. It would suggest that perhaps the connections are not pointing to the Kentucky Derby, after all. Even so, they should have taken a shot against this field.
Davids I, too am perplexed, regarding the Tampa race . .I thought Agate Road would be a player, there—as far as Maymun is concerned… I’m bullish on him! Bob likes him too—said he’s a top talent—and he also mentioned The Arkansas Derby, as his possible next race. ..
Thanks Matthew. I did read ‘somewhere’ concerning Maymun with the Arkansas Derby so if he goes there Baffert must be really high on him. The Tampa Bay Derby field is allowance quality as Ms Blacktype stated above, what gives? What’s annoying too is that there’s no real action until March 23 now so the enthusiasm starts to ebb away.
The 2009 Sunland Derby field contained the Canadian Champion 2YO. But was likely viewed as lacking luster. Mine Taht Bird emerged form that lackluster ungraded stakes and recorded one of the most spectacular KD in decades.
A KD winner can emerge from just about any prep. The was criticism of CD or making he Jeff Ruby a 100 points prep because of its low status as a KD prep. Well, in the last 2 years, the pep has produced a winner and a runner up in the KD. In 2022 the Jeff Ruby emerged as the best final KD Prep. It produced the 1st and 7th Place finishers separated by 5L.
The #7 ranked Domestic Product has one of the top 4 times for 9F, He was runner up in the Holly Bull.
No More Time is the Sam Davis winner.
Sturdy has contested two 9F races and was 2nd in one to Domestic Product closing from last. A May foal displaying such stamina so early, is great as he will better the stranger he gets.
It best to keep an open mind with young developing horses. Unless there is a historic pattern associated with the barn from which they hails.
Yes, what you have written is a fair statement but at this stage the runners in the Tampa Derby don’t have the same cachet – luster – as a handful of other colts have at present. Things can change dramatically but until they do you have to call the runners as their performances are perceived overall.
Street Sense, the only winner of the Tampa Bay Derby to go on and win the Kentucky Derby, had plenty of luster going into the Tampa Bay Derby being the two year old champion. The runners in this Saturday’s Tampa Bay Derby cannot be compared to Street Sense at the same time of their development.
Deterministic, for the win!
Welcome aboard the Deterministic bandwagon.
Steve, I enjoy your comments when discussing Deterministic–“no place for an old school guy–concept of racing is neanderthal”–Really made me laugh, and it is true!!
I dont think we have any young people who come here so they have no clue what we’re talking about.
Hi Steve, something that I think is a bit interesting about Hall of Fame is that, even though he’s only had 3 races, he’s logged a lot of furlongs on the work tab. Of the 70 or so horses that I’ve been following along the trail, Only Muth (134), Stronghold (120) and Endlessly have more worked furlongs than Hall of Fame’s 114 (tied with Resilience.
I don’t know what difference it makes as this is the first year that I’ve really tracked works. It’s just a bit interesting that Hall of Fame has worked 50-60 more furlongs than horses like Deterministic and Common Defense, along with 40 more than Sierra Leone, Mystic Dan and Conquest Warrior.
Lastly, Hall of Fame has the most 5 Furlong works (16) than any other horse on the Triple Crown trail (that I’m following anyway). Which leads me to a question for anyone to answer. Is the 5F work for stamina building and the 4F for speed (or turn of foot)? I’ve tried to do some googling, but there is surprisingly little on the training strategy of race horses.
Thanks in advance for any and all musings on the strategy of works etc…
I really think hes a live longshot. Asmussen doesnt usually work long, mostly easy half-mile breezes so that is surprising , but its good to know he is that fit. He could be a smart bet in the next Future Wager.
“Is the 5F work for stamina building”
Long and slow works build stamina. Most 5F &F 4F F works are for maintenance of the fast twitch muscles and for sharpness.
The great Jamaican sprinter Usain Bolt used a lot of 400M background training to build stamina to maintain his 200M speed.
Liberal Arts has been on my watch list from day one. In fact, I cashed big on the colt when he won the Street Sense. Despite my dislike for the non-refundable KD Future Pool wagers, I had to place a wager on the colt at odds that were just too attractive to ignore.
Interestingly, Two Phil’s won the 2022 renewal of the Street Sense over a sloppy/sealed surface in 1:47.31. Liberal Arts won over a sloppy/sealed surface in 1:46.50.
Two Phil’s finished a weakening 7th by 10 3/4L in the Claiborne Futurity before winning the Street Sense next out. Liberal Arts was troubled 3rd by 2L in the Iroquois before winning the Street Sense next out.
Liberal Arts is from Arrogates last crop before his untimely demise. Arrogate’s Archangelo secured the 2023 Eclipse for Champion 3YO male. Can Liberal Arts emerge the winner of KD 150 representing his deceased sire?
Many have concluded 2024 KD is wide open. But I differ as the 2024 KD is Sierra Leone’s to lose. Many favorites have been beaten in the KD. Just ask Bob Baffert. Seven of his post time favorites were beaten.
There is something unique regarding Labral Arts dam sire Tribal Rule. In 2008 a foal was born to Ces’t Si Vite from a Tribal Rule cover. The colt registered name was Liberal Arts, So, Tribal Rule is sire and dam sire of two colts with the same name.
SPEED FIGURES
I am not a fan of the above figures and never use them in my decision making. Equibase assigned a 99 for Rich Strike’s 3rd place finish in the 2022 Jeff Ruby and a 102 for Epicenter 1st place finishing the LA Derby. The colts were separated by 1/2L in the KD merrowing the closeness of their assigned speed figures. It is unlikely that either Thro-Graph or Beyer had the two that close. So, Equibase has creds.
Why highlight the above?
For Liberal Arts’ last 3 starts he was assigned the following figures:
Iroquois (3rd troubled trip) – 83
Street Sense (1st) – 90
Southwest (3rd) – 93
Conquest Warrior’s 3 starts he was assigned the following figures:
Debut MSW (3rd) – 84
Maiden breaker MSW (1st)- 75
Allowance O/C (1st) – 85
One colt is ranked at #6 and the other at #16. And I saw where speed figures are not considered in the rankings and for that I am happy. The eye test is grossly underrated despite its significance if one knows what to look for. However, it appears, the Equibase guys are not overly impressed with CW.
The FL Derby and AK Derby should reveal whether the Equibase rankings reasonably reflected the two colts’ performances for the cited races.
Deterministic and Conquest Warrior are the new players arising as Derby contenders after their resounding wins last week. Steve has thoroughly explained their running abilities and potential so their upgrade to the top 6 is duly justified.
The last seven years has shown that newcomers are prone to catch up with those who had shown more precocity in their 2-year-old races (i.e. winning Stakes last year). Deterministic and Conquest Warrior are great agents of this new wave
Paul posted about the notable coincidence of Deterministic and Conquest Warrior hailing from Courtly Dee female line. Steve added that also Common Defense belongs to the same female family.
It is really peculiar that the fourth dams of these three Derby hopefuls are all full sisters (daughters of Alydar out of Courtly Dee by Never Bend). Steve said he would cover Courtly Dee next week I just wanted to mention that the American family A4 has produced five Derby winners:
2014 CALIFORNIA CHROME,
1966 KAUAI KING,
1957 IRON LIEGE,
1955 SWAPS,
1929 CLYDE VAN DUSEN
Other noteworthy members of the A4 family are BC Classic winner Bayern, champion sprinter Gulch, Cascapedia (champion handicap mare), Exotic Wood (three-time Grade 1 winner) and solid stallion Crème dela Crème.
Another fun fact is that the sires of Fierceness and Conquest Warrior (City of Light), Deterministic (Liam’s Map), Mystik Dan (Goldencents) were all Breeder’s Cup Dirt Mile winners who also were able to win important 1 1/8-mile- Stakes like the Santa Anita Derby, the Pegasus and the Woodward.
Seems like the BC Mile has become a good source of good sires… good news for Spun to Run, Knicks Go, Life is Good and Cody’s Wish…
Back to the new Derby contenders, the case Steve has laid out for Conquest Warrior reminds me of the compelling arguments he made for Always Dreaming precisely on week 7 after a facile Allowance win at Tampa.
Times and speed ratings were not as significant as the critical eye test passed by Always Dreaming back in 2017 and I feel that Conquest Warrior got and A in his last win…
If Nelson’s post has peeked your interest there is a more in-depth view on Courtly Dee’s progeny through Avalyn Hunter‘s excellent website American Classic Pedigrees. Enjoy.
Just stopping by Nelson to tell you how much I enjoy your posts.
Thanks for mentioning Always Dreeaming. Ome of my favorite picks. He really sold himself with the eye test and that little noticed allowance victory.
Steve, Your such a dreamer !!!
Thanks Lynda … I really appreciate your kind words.
I knew that headlining California Chrome as a top member of Family A4 would delight you…LOL
Yes it did!
Truly awesome post, Nelson. You start out with an intriguing pedigree riff on Courtly Dee and end up with an insightful way to pick a Derby winner out of an allowance race.
Thanks Ms Blacktype … I am really glad you enjoyed the post.
Who does not get fascinated by such a good-looking, powerful, big and yet nimble and beautiful mover…!
Conquest Warrior passed the eye test for me as well. And from the wayback machine, I remember thinking Chrome had the goods when he was still running in state-bred races. It had that look.
HE had that look. I swear the autocorrect is into bad grammar.
Le Dom Bro, who is mentioned in Steve’s Knocking on the Door section is currently not nominated for the Triple Crown. Interesting if the connections take a bite…
Incredible as it may seem but between May 3 – May5, 2024, Justify could have sired the Kentucky Oaks winner with Just FYI; the 2,000 Guineas winner with City 0f Troy; the Kentucky Derby winner with Just A Touch; and the 1,000 Guineas winner with Opera Singer.
Impossible, you may think? Well, no, 3 out of the four favorites for the above Classics is sired by Justify. To make things even more extraordinary on March, 23, at Rosehill, Storm Boy, will probably romp home in the Golden Slipper Stakes, the richest race for 2 year olds the world over.
Should all of the above come to pass, one can only imagine what Justify’s stud fee will rocket to for the next year. Mind you, it’s only May the beginning of the racing calendar – things, can only get better!! for Justify and Coolmore.
If things can better, they can also get worst. It’s a sport of glorious uncertainties.
I’ll second that, Counter Point.
To be sure but Coolmore don’t have the largest treasure trove in racing history by getting too many things wrong. I’d be betting with Coolmore, than against them, in most cases. The future is there to be had.
As I mentioned earlier I am featuring the family next week. It’s already written
Hi Steve, the Arkansas Derby is 24 days away and I can’t wait to see Liberal Arts run. I see that Maymun is listed as probable. He was all out at 1M to beat Imagination last out in an allow. Do you view Maymun as more of a miler Steve, or do you believe he can stretch his speed to 1/8 distance of the ARK Derby? The ARK Derby is sure to be a salty field with Timberlake and Mystic Dan likely to run. Hoping LA keeps his steak alive of finishing no worse than 3rd so he can punch his ticket to Louisville.
He has the same cross as Flightine. Tapit on top and Indian Charlie on bottom. Flightline has a stronger female family in general but Maymun should have no problem staying.
In my opinion Maymun has huge potential. Yes, he only beat Imagination a head, but once he dug in and came back to win he was really running. Galloped out a block ahead of Imagination.
Yes…and a lot was asked in a short time ….debut maiden win….stiff five furlong work 7 days later, followed by another five furlongs 7 days later then days later race two—it looked like a bounce race but after getting passed and running 2nd for a furlong, he regathered, and won pulling away—and he beat a nice colt…..
It’ll be interesting to see where Maymun runs next. From what you can see he’s nominated for the Blue Grass Stakes. I’d like to see him attempt the Met Mile at Saratoga on Belmont Stakes day but then again so is the Woody Stephens Stakes. Who knows?
I was practically alone, it the Big Cap grandstand, Sunday —and saw a terrific Big Cap—there’s nothing like a 10 furlong race, I did not have the winner but I was correct about the favorite not hitting the board, because the tenth furlong makes a big difference, from nine furlongs …west coast racing has and is losing its luster, but I’ve been fortunate to view some terrific ten furlong races, in that respect the west coast has had more races to be remembered, with the Big Cap, Gold Cups, Pacific Classic and Strub/Swaps races….good memories indeed….. we’re all wondering how these three year olds will respond to a tenth furlong—
Since finishing 2nd to Track Phantom in the Gun Runner Stakes, Snead has recorded just one official work, which was on February 16th. Snead showed promise early on, but with no recent works, he could be off the Derby trail.
Is there anyone out there that can shed some light on what’s going on with this Brendan Walsh colt?
Thanks.
If you find an update regarding Snead,please let me know. Great respect for trainer.
Will do, Mike.
Same as well.
As a follower of multiple sports, it always amazes me how difficult it is to find information like this.
Imagine an up and coming NFL or NBA player not practicing for months and no one reporting on it/knowing why.
Or a PGA pro skipping a major event or newly targeting different event; would be reported very quickly.
One of the things that makes following horse racing very frustrating at times.
Thanks for another wonderful and insightful edition of Kentucky Derby Rankings.
I am more of a horse racing fan than a handicapper, but I know an exceptional horse when I see him or her at my local track at Gulfstream Park. I have never seen Justify or American Pharoah race other than on video or TV. One of those special horses that I saw who looked to be aiming for the Triple Crown was Big Brown. Big Brown gave such a professional, dominant, and classy performance in an allowance race at Gulfstream, that I just knew he was a Triple Crown caliber of horse. This year, God willing, Shug McGaughey, has the classiest of horses going on the trail. I just wish that everyone has a safe trip and that all race safely.
Steve, the way the prep races have been affected by weather conditions and other unspecific circumstances you have been given a poison challis in divining the rankings of these colts weekly. You have my greatest admiration. For me, we have a jigsaw puzzle to complete with some pieces missing.
There are too many pros and cons to get too excited for any of these colts in this group at this stage. Especially when you see the Baffert colts run and win in such dashing fashion. Nonetheless, reading your weekly column is an absolute highlight along with agreeing or disagreeing with the views of other posters who are high or not so high on those in the mix.
Besides the US Derby preps l’m looking forward to the Fukuryu Stakes at Nakamaya on March 23, to see how Ramjet performs there. Should he win Ramjet might be Churchill Downs bound.
Speaking of March 23, in Sydney, at Rosehill they will be running the Golden Slipper Stakes and there is a brilliant Justify colt named Storm Boy that is worth taking a look at. Named after the touching children’s novel, Storm Boy by Colin Thiele, this undefeated colt is outstanding and may win the Australian Triple Crown for two year olds this year.
For those with young children or those who are young at heart there are two movie adaptations of Storm Boy and both are worth a viewing. A couple of years back I saw a play adapted from the novel which had life size animated Pelican puppets which had the audience in tears of joy and sadness.
Thanks again, Steve for your tireless work.
Davids: Yes, Steve is as wise as Socrates but I don’t think anyone who reads this blog wants to see him imbibing in hemlock!
I got one will check out Storm Boy. He sounds like a promising horse.
Ha ha!! Perhaps not, Ms Blacktype, but a dram of high quality whiskey, sip or two of absinthe, or possibly a tasting of various mezcals may assist Steve annd certainly ease the frustrations that this years Derby trail has become.
Storm Boy, the colt, can be seen on YouTube in the Skyline Stakes a major prep for the Golden Slipper Stakes, you’ll be impressed for sure.
The 1976 film version of Storm Boy is the best version, it’s an absolute gem of a film.
Are the top 3YO colts in America Nysos, Muth, and Maymun?
Nysos has been ultra brilliant, so he gets the default top spot. I say default because The likes of Knightsbridge and Parchment Party are unfortunately out of action.
It shouldn’t be forgotten that 2 colts with the Nyquist/Bernardini cross recorded impressive debut wins and both were assigned Equibase figures of 110. One has been active the other has not.
We have seen just how good Nyos has been. But do we really know the extent of Knightsbridge’s ability? Champion 2YO Forte was regarded as the best 3YO male in 2023. That was until Archangelo, a grey son of Arrogate showed in the 2nd half of the year.
Muth was beaten by Prince Of Monaco in the Best Pal. Neither he nor the Best Pal victor were any match for Fierceness in BCJ. He held off Locked by 1/2L to secure 2nd in the BCJ. His best opponents in the American Pharoah and San Vicente emerged as Wine Me Up and Pilot Commander respectively.
Wine Me Up was beaten in the Los Al Futurity by Wynstock who subsequently finished last in the Southwest as BB’s first shipper outside CA for 2024. Pilot Commander hasn’t made a start since the San Vicente.
How Muth can be considered top 3 in male division can be seriously challenged given the above cold facts.
Maymun made a smashing debut in a very fast time over 6 1/2F. In his 2nd start he was fully extended to win over Imagination. over 8F completed in 1:36.65. Sierra Leone won on debut over 8F completed in 1:36 .94 after bobbling at the start and with a 5W trip. That Gun Runner colt is only a HD away from being undefeated and with two graded stakes wins.
It’s hard to secure endorsements that Muth and Maymun are in the top 3 in the male division off their respective BOW. But the same set of cold facts can be evaluated and yield different results. I guess to each his own.
NB: Bob Baffert had what had to be considered the best KD multi-entrant contingent from a barn in decades i.e., Game Winner Champion 2YO/ 2nd Rebel & SA Derby), Roadster (impressive SA Derby winner) and Improbable (2nd Rebel & AK Derby; Post time favorite) At least two of the 3 entrants were considered top 3 in the division. None of them hit the board in the original order of finish.
Th KD is an ultimate equalizer. It has made brilliant entrants appear modest and modest entrants appear brilliant if only for the 1st Saturday in May.
Bob’s won more Kentucky Derbys than Brad, Todd, Steve, Chad—–America’s top four trainers—–combined, he also developed Life Is Good—who Todd and Irad called the best horse they’ve been involved with—-it IS a different race without him…
The Derbys Bob B. didn’t win were just as good as the ones he did, to the public and those close to the winners and everyone else. Some were better. You think their experiences were lesser, their winners not as heroic?
Or was this another remark designed to rub it in to those other four trainers?
HIs point is that without Bob in the race, the level of true competition is not the same. It’s a valid comment. I’m sure those who won in his absence were just as thrilled and they should have been. Not their fault the competition was compromised so good on them. But if I won the NCAA championship football title while Alabama was sitting out a DQ, it wouldn’t feel the same. I always want to play the best and beat the best. It’s far more satisfying.
That sounds great but that’s not what I meant. I meant the many years past when Bob B. had entries in the Derby.
This year I don’t think that Nysos is the best but a lot of public writers do (not to mention a few posters). Maybe they see something I don’t. Meanwhile some of the better prep horses are sitting down the list, not getting their due but taking a lot of flack for being lightly raced
“His point is that without Bob in the race, the level of true competition is not the same”
OK!
What happened in 2019? All three-entrants finished off the board. None of the entrants provided much competition.
What happened in 2010? Favorite Lookin At Lucky finished 6th by 7L. He didn’t offer much competition.
What happened in 2001? Favorite Point Given ($1.80) finished 5th by 11 1/2L. He didn’t offer much competition.
The 2022 & 2023 KDs had the highest wagering in the history of the race, with 2023 setting a record. The notion that a certain trainer’s absence will negatively impact the race, or its competitiveness is not supported by the aforementioned wagering records.
Go back and look at the beginning of Lookin At Lucky KD race. He was broadsided coming out of the gate… He was “Lucky ” to finish the race. He came back 2 weeks later and won the Preakness. The KD is not a race but more of a spectacle IMO !!!
BB lives yearly for the Derby. Stop spinning!
You really don’t have to ask what happened in 2019 do you? The track caretakers made a huge mistake and opened up the track right before a monsoon which created a peanut butter substance that disabled many horses but most certainly handicapped Bob’s trio.
Looking at lucky had a horrible trip as mentioned by Downthestrech and I think Gomez was much to blame. That he ran 6th was a testament to how good he really was given that horrible ride. You obviously know that he won the Preakness with a new Jockey, Martin Garcia. He also won the Haskel.
But to say that Point Given was not competitive is a joke. Yes he did not run well in the KD. A foot infection and a hard fast surface which had to have irritated it more were the reasons he didn’t fair well but again we are talking about a horse who won the next to legs of the triple crown. That he didn’t fair well in the Derby was circumstantial and not that he was not a well deserved favorite. He was a very deserving favorite.
Wagering levels are not the basis of measuring how good the competition is for any race because the horses don’t care, don’t bet, and certainly don’t read regurgitated churchill downs talking points.
Agree 100%.
Exactly! Some can’t face reality he isn’t allowed to enter Derby.
‘
I am confused!
Your reply doesn’t address the question forming my opening paragraph.
Of course I’m not rubbing their noses in it, winning The Derby is never easy, my final sentence abides, it IS a different race, without him it’s different…
I’ve won over $2100 four times, in the Derby, three of those times I won more than $5K…..never with a Bob horse on top, I love to beat Bob ….but the race is better with his horses running —and the Saratoga Belmont might be one heckuva race!
All of my large Derby hits were at BB’s expense as well so I love beating him too. His horses can get overplayed and you can score better if they don’t win. For all my support of him in this current state of affairs, I too love to bet against him and appreciate his participation in the race.
Being of the age and witness of the Neanderthal concept of racing and truly missing it, I look forward to Tuesday morning cup of coffee and YOU. It’s the read of the week. Analysis with no bias or favor. Just the Dope(and your not the dope). I find Forever Young quite intriguing overcoming all that in the Saudi Derby. Or maybe it’s just me looking at a cartoon by Skip Olsen from the 92 Derby DRF that is framed up on my wall with the title “Here’s to the Sweetest Two Minutes in Sports”. God knows The Derby has kept a piece of me “Forever Young”
While i am still high on Dornach, i will have to say that Deterministic could be my new top derby horse. I love the connections and i love the move he made with that powerful kick and stride. My only knock is i am not a fan of closers in the derby as it seems much tougher to make a trip. He is high on my RADAR.
Hey Mark
Welcome aboard the Deterministic bandwagon.
Deterministic is a January foal. KD winners with foaling dates in January are a rare commodity.
The most celebrated January male in recent memory was Verrazano. ‘He was simply brilliant and entered the KD undefeated.
But he was unable to convert his brilliant into a KD win and finished 14th. it probably didn’t help that he was trained and conditioned by TP.
Another was Gemologist from the same barn. He was also brilliant. He likewise enters the KD undefeated. But he was also unable to covert his brilliance into a KD win and finished 16th.
Should Deterministic win the KD he would join Grindstone as a fellow January foal a good 28 years between.
I like the colt from I first saw his denbut win. I placed a wager in the stallion future pool on Liam’s Map because of him.
Good luck with your stallion future wager. Incidentally, if you don’t mind me asking, what were Liam’s Map’s odds when you placed you wager?
Edit to say, placed your wager.
Bring out the bubble wrap?
In an appearance on Steve Byk’s radio show yesterday, Chris Clement did not rule out the possibility of Deterministic simply training up to the Derby. At the same time, however, he made it sound like he preferred one more race, possibly the Blue Grass.
Hey Counter Fit
There’s been a lot of speculation as to where Clement will point Deterministic for his next start. Now Clement threw us a curve, stating he did not rule out the possibility of Deterministic simply training up to the Derby. However, the Blue Grass is the next race that he (Clement) prefers. Bottom line, where and when we’ll see Deterministic remains undecided.
BTW, Steve posted a comment earlier today, stating, “timing wise I would think the Blue Grass”. Spot on.
Clement said in the interview that he had not yet discussed all the options with the Gotham winner’s owners. So, maybe that’s why he may have been somewhat noncommittal. Btw, if I may be so bold to give the answer you posed to Counter Point. 66/1 were the odds for Liam’s Map in the Sire Pool Wager.
Thanks for the reply, Counter Fit, those are excellent odds.
Hello Steve, appreciate the rankings each week as always.
Was happy to see Born Noble and Wine Steward working, though might be too little/too late.
As a related question, any further news on Snead would be greatly appreciated. He was my very early Derby pick back at Christmas. Walsh had him back on worktab Feb 14th and in an interview mentioned LA Derby or Jeff Ruby as possibilities, but no news (or works) since.
Appreciate any insight you may have on him.
Best,
Armaan
I liked hm too. He didnt work for a month, then worked at Turfway Park and that was almost 3 weeks ago so someting has to be amiss with him. Too late for him now anyway.
Conquest Warrior will need to run a good race, in his Derby points prep ….but really—every other horse will have to run a good race—its rare, for a horse to run a dud in his penultimate race—Giacomo and Sea Hero ran fourth, and Mandaloun ran sixth ….Secretariat ran his worst race as a three year old, before his other-worldly Triple Crown…..but for the most part you gotta run well before The Kentucky Derby…..Conquest Warrior, Mystic Dan, Sierra Leone have looked like the ones, and I’m still bullish on Honor Marie, just MAKE IT….he loves that track..
Is Change of Command off of the trail? He ran so bad it’s hard to believe outside of an issue or hating the track. This horse was a length behind the top horse on your list and favorite in a historically solid prep a month ago.
Last I heard they sent him to be evaluated to make sure he was OK physically. I will be talking to someone who knows and will find out/
Thanks so much, Steve. Interested to hear what they have to say.
I’ve waited at least a day to toss my thoughts into the conversation and here it goes….
1. After a horse race there is the winner and a bunch of losers, and some wise man once stated that someone had to win the race. That’s how I feel about this past weekend. Someone had to win, and I get that in this year of no Baffert horses, a win is a win. That said, I can’t recall a more uninspiring collection of Derby preps.
2. However, you have to credit Deterministic with his Gotham win and a 93 Beyer. I had to go to the local library to look up on microfiche to find the last time a Gotham winner later coupled that with a Kentucky Derby win. I discovered some horse named Secretariat was the last to achieve this unapproachable and unobtainable goal over 50 years ago.
3. The Fountain of Youth featured a horse, Dornoch, that just won the race and a commentator on CNBC couldn’t even wait for the horse to turn around and make his way back to the winner’s circle before providing unflattering comments. But then found out Dornoch received a 88 Beyer and thought he (the commentator) might be on to something. A 88 Beyer just tow months to the KD probably would cut it in a normal year-but again this is not a normal year.
4. John Sadler would like to forget this past weekend as well…he scratched his horse in the Gotham and probably should have done the same with Scatify in the San Felipe.
5. With just two months to go this year’s KD has all the look of a crapshoot since the top three three year old horses in America (Nysos, Muth, and Maymun) and argumentatively a fourth (Imagination) will not be there.
6. To sum it up America’s Greatest Race, aka the Kentucky Derby, with all of its American history of horses, grandeur, pageantry and fanfare especially in this special 150th Anniversary all points to another country winning-Japan.
I agree on all points
Ditto agree with all points.
Slim chance Japan prevails.
John, couldn’t agree more. I got up at 4 am to watch the full cards at Gulfstream Park and Aqueduct. Specifically, alas, to watch Speak Easy. There was rain, rain, and more rain at Aqueduct. How many preps have been run on the slop this year? Gulfstream Park was beautiful but the main race had been depleted to nothing and then Speak Easy was scratched. You can’t win.
Sunday, Monday here, you watch the Baffert’s colt dazzle again but not Derby bound. It’s a shame, a damn shame, for the 150th Anniversary. I do like the Japanese colt, Ramjet.
John Goggin:
You may need to visit the Library of Congress to research how many full brothers have won consecutive Kentucky Derbies.
The brilliance of Steve Haskin shines through so perfectly in his description above of the pedigree of Timberlake. Loud mouthed know-nothings with podcasts are put to shame by facts that Steve can pull right from his memory bank! In depth analysis like the above, being honest when he admits not knowing things that are yet unknowable, and behind the scenes stories about the people and equine athletes that make this sport so captivating make Steve a national treasure. You are appreciated Steve. Thanks.
That is very kind of you , Greg. Thank you so much. I’m lucky to have such a knowledgeable group here to keep me on my toes.
Stronghold had a work this morning. 4 furlongs in 49.20, 16/31. Good to see. I would love to see a Ghostzapper win the Derby. Time is running low.
That puts him back in the picture.
Hey Steve, separating the contenders from the pretenders this year is a daunting task, but if anyone is up to it, you are. This week’s edition is a lot to digest and I thoroughly enjoyed reading your assessments. The next three weeks will be a slow period, but once we get through this, we’ll have a lot of action to sort things out.
Glad to see Forever Young moved up to No. 8 on your list. I’m really anxious to see him race in Dubai. The 1 3/16 distance of the UAE Derby should be right up his alley and hopefully, earn him a ticket to the KD.
p.s. You know, it’s curious Steve, but my coffee always seems to taste better when I’m reading your column. Thanks!
Thanks Dewey. I hope you drink it black to keep you awake through all of it.
No, Steve, I drink it with sugar free creamer. I would never fall asleep during one of your “classes” but, if I should, you can have me memorize all the winners of the Kentucky Derby (ala Bill Nack) as punishment. lol
Without the scratches, would Dornoch have even hit the board?
Dummy? You’re the one who requires supervision to make bowl of oatmeal.
Why do people resort to personal attacks?
Personal attacks often reveal more about the attacker than they do about you. People may lash out due to their own insecurities, frustrations, or biases. The attack may stem from a lack of understanding, a difference in beliefs, or even a desire to deflect attention from their own shortcomings.
That’s rich, considering you insulted me on another site couple days ago. A site you haven’t found me on in four years! Just
a nasty troll! Bet it hurts having full run on that low rent site, compared to here. Even you know your clown show won’t cut
It here. Bummer!
There you go displaying your shortcomings again.
Remind me, of the two of us, who got kicked off that other site for being a belligerent, nasty troll?
This thread ends now.
Adm: individual is a serial troublemaker- using tons of different names.
Now, am I supposed to allow this bald-faced lie to go unchallenged? One, I have but one name and I even use this name across many platforms and sites. Easy enough to see what email I use that’s associated with my name.
Secondly, I have never started trouble with Mike Relva. Not in this case or any other, not on this site. However, I won’t back down from being trolled and slandered. Any trouble has been started by him, as it was in this case when I merely asked a question and he responded with a hateful comment.
Good day.
I suspect we’ll see a record number of derby runners with one or two preps this year. (The record is 10.) We may as well use a dart board. At this point, I need to focus on colts that have shown an ability to finish strong. Sierra Leone has already proven himself at 9f, with a final eighth of 12 sec in the sloppy Risen Star. Mystik Dan went the final 1/2 furlong in 6 sec, and Timberlake finished in 6 1/5 sec.
I’m also keeping an eye on Common Defense, Domestic Product, and Hall of Fame. The horribly named debut sprint winner Drip likely goes in the Tampa Bay Derby. He has the pedigree for longer distances. I’ll borrow a phrase from Steve to say that, two months from the derby, I’m woefully “in the dark.”
Join the club, Winston. Most of us are in the dark and some of us are without a compass (moi). I bemoan the fact, like many others here, that there is so little to go on with these lightly (to put it mildly) raced 3 yos. Back in the day, the horsemen used to race their horses regularly to get them into condition. This practice not only got them a good foundation but also gave young horses a good deal of experience in learning what to do. Today, they are treated like delicate pieces of china and we don’t really find out what they’re made of until the end of the year (if they’re still around). Anybody got a dart board they want to sell?
Funny you should mention Drip. I was looking up his pedigree yesterday after I saw his name in the Tampa Bay Derby nominations. This son of Good Magic should have no problem in going a distance. Hope to see what he has to show us on Saturday.
I agree about the name. Who would name a horse Drip?
Steve, if you include Friday ,it was another a very good weekend (Conquest Warrior and Deterministic) for the incredible Courtly Dee who overcame being a $15,000 claimer and possessing “cheap speed” to contribute so much to the thoroughbred gene pool!
In my 20’s I revered the Mighty Forego! I would love to see Shug’s 17 hand horse give me the same rooting interest in my 70’s!
And you can add Common Defense to the Courtly Dee family. I will be feeaturing her next week when it will be slower. I probably will be adding Common Defense so she can have 3 in the top 20. He deserves to be anyway
A very interesting list featuring retained rankings, promotions, demotions, additions and expulsions.
The top 4 from week 6 retained their rankings. In the no change category, Fierceness retained his #3 ranking which came as a surprise given the disarray of the Todd Pletcher contingent.
My views on the colt are well known. There is absolutely no way this colt will ever reproduce his BCJ performance. He will continue to head in the opposite direction and leave Mike Repole as perplexed as he was on 26th August 2023, That’s the day Forte finished a fading 4th in the Travers and all of Mike’s horses on the card grossly underperform, leaving wondering what went wrong. I could tell him, but loving eyes can never see,
Deterministic made his debut on the list at #5 replacing Locked. No complaints from this end. The colt appears top class. His trainer is master at his craft and couldn’t be more deserving of a serious KD entrant.
Despite winning the FOY Dornoch was demoted a spot to make way for the impressive AOC winner Conquest Warrior. The City of Lights colt was promoted 8 spots from #14 to #6. That’s a big promotion off an AOC win against over matched opponents. From this end it is deemed overly generous. Many ranked below would have been equally impressive against the group.
Japan’s Forever Young was promoted from #15 to #8. That’s difficult to process. The colt displayed very little stride extension in his win and was fully extended to reel in a colt that is suspect at routing.
Liberal Arts ranked at #16 is surprising. I am of the opinion he is better than a few ranked above.
Of the additions I am of the opinion Hall of Fame and Agate Road are undeserving. Common Defense finished 2L behind the #2 rank colt and he didn’t make the cut. How so?
Credit is deserved for the inclusion Encino. On the previous Blog I express surprise that none of the comments referenced the Bataglia which carries KD point.
I am of the opinion that Godolphin will never win the KD with a fancied entrant. It will be one appearing modest. After decades of trying to win the Epsom Derby in the blue colors. It was achieved with a 12/1 shot. They followed up with a 16/1 winner 2 years later.
Thank you for your details and dedication to bring excellent information. Can you please shed any picture on city of light breeding and potential for going the KD distance? Thanks!
Thanks Jeff. City of Light was basically a mile to 1 1/8-mile horse who definitely will get classic horses if bred to a mare with a decent amount of stamina much like Into Mischief. He has Secretariat and Somethingroyal all through his pedigree. He will be a hot sire for years.
You can also add Strawberry Road (AUS) -G1 AJC Derby and G1 Queensland Derby winner over ~1 1/2 miles. And Alydar through his sire Quality Road is impressive.
But as Steve mentioned his cross of Secretariat helps the dam’s lineage.
Others cross:
Raise a Native: 5S X 5S
Secretariat: 5S X 4D
Northern Dancer: 5S X 4D X 5D
Somethingroyal: 4D X 5D
Steve#2 breeding looks tough; but he will have to step it up with speed figures.
Thanks Steve and Brudder
Timberlake
Great analysis Steve. I am astounded by the detail you present in each of these thoroughbreds. I hope every one appreciates the hours of work you pour in to this effort. I have an open mind at this point but visually I lean toward what I have seen from Mystik Dan, Fierceness, Sierra Leone, Timberlake and Conquest Warrior. As usual, the cards will be played by owners and trainers in the final prep. What ever happen to foundation. It seems non existent in training today. What ever happen to brick by brick training?
Thank you very much. No more brick by brick. Now it’s one of those houses that goes up in 20 minutes
Prefabrication, wins the 2050 Kentucky Derby!!
LOL! Followed in by Hasty Pudding and Wait for it, nope don’t wait for it.
You kind of shudder thinking what US racing will be like by 2050. Probably best not to know.
I just think Dornoch has classic form and physique, his strides are long and easy. He broke great, perfect, trainer said he was a slow breaker? Most of the first quarter was on the turn, that would slow it down. They then kept going at that speed. He seemed to want more at the end. He finished in 12:67, respectable. You could see him speed up to get away from Dom at the end. The groom is either a former jockey or he’s easily over 16 hands high, cause the top of the groom’s head was at his withers. What’s not to like? He’s a great looking horse in all respects.
Deterministic was also handy and quick. He had a bone chip, that’s why he didn’t race after August. The trainer’s son who was there couldn’t be more glowing about him.
Steve;
Thanks for your comprehensive and well-written overview of what has been a wet and interesting Derby prep season. I am hoping to see some strong performances in one or more of the remaining prep races. This year, with all of the off-track preps so far, it would be fitting if Derby was run on an off track!
I just looked over the current odds here in Las Vegas, and there is a huge discrepancy on your #10 horse: Catching Freedom: He is currently 18-1 at William Hill, and 100-1 at Circa! Usually don’t see such a huge difference…I added a few dollars today…
Thank you. I’ll take 100-1 in heartbeat. And 18-1 is too low.
Hi Steve
I was delighted to see Deterministic ranked at #5. His win in the Gotham was something to behold. Now that he has enough points to put him in the Derby starting gate, the main thing is for him to stay healthy.
Question: Do you think Clement will point him to the Wood or the Florida Derby? The Florida Derby will have some of the top contenders on this year’s Derby trail, so it would be a great test for Deterministic relative to class and distance.
Thanks again for another great in-depth analysis on your top contenders moving forward on the Derby trail.
BTW, Steve, I’ve got four of your top 20 in Pool 3 Futures bets, $40.00 to win plus $2.00 exacta p/w wagers.
Deterministic, 99-1
Resilience, 93-1
Tuscan Sky, 88-1
Catching Freedom, 28-1
KOTD Segment
Real Men Violin, 99-1
Otello, 59-1
I was told Capital Idea is definitely going in the Wood so maybe they will go out of town with Deterministic. Timing wise I would think the Blue Grass, but I wouldnt eliminate the Wood or Florida Derby
Good luck with your bets. Lots of good ones there.
Thanks for your kind words last week and so true about this group
You’re welcome, Steve
Regarding Deterministic’s next start, I’ve read that the Arkansas Derby is under consideration as well.
I’m sure Mr. Clement will make the right decision and chose the best path forward on the Derby trail.
Deterministic checks a lot of boxes, IMO.
My take on the colts in the Todd Pletcher barn, Tuscan Sky could be his top contender on the Derby trail. Unless Fierceness can overcome his inconsistencies, which he may, the jury is still out on his ability to be regarded as a top contender in this year’s Derby.
Thanks again for all you do.
I am feeling confident in Liberal Arts chances in the ARK derby. LA fired a bullet 4F work today signaling his readiness. LA has never finished worse than third and has increased his BSF in all of his races. I love the way he gets rolling late and his strong gallop outs signal to me the longer the better for this son of Arrogate. I’m glad to have bet LA in KDFW2 and surely will bet more on him in KDFW5. He’s flying under Most everyone’s radar, but he is squarely on mine. Christian Torres is a good fit for LA and I’m sure he would be excited to be in his first KY Derby with LA as well as LA talented trainer Robert Medina.
Its hard to feel confident in anyone this year buy I am coonfident he will run his heart out and will be ight there.
Steve, once again you’ve written a compelling column on the current state of the Derby trail. Kudos to you for ranking the two definitive winners from this weekend’s preps (Deterministic and Encino) in your top 20. They’ve earned it, and both have intriguing pedigrees. Of course Dornoch won too, but he did it over a depleted field and on a fast track.