Kentucky Derby Rankings – Week 8
Another race this week in which we learned nothing, so we’re back to 15 and keeping the list somewhat elite, while letting the rest of them fight it out in the big 100-point races. There is so little separating many of these horses the order is virtually meaningless until further developments and racing results reveal which true Derby contenders will emerge from the pack. ~ Steve Haskin
Derby Rankings: March 11, 2024 – Week 8
By Steve Haskin
1—Sierra Leone (Chad Brown, Gun Runner – Heavenly Love, by Malibu Moon)
As we approach next week’s lull when there are no stakes and we learn little, this is a good time to see where we are. When you get right down to it we have had stakes every weekend and we still have learned little and have no idea where we are. That begins with Sierra Leone, who for an overwhelming Kentucky Derby favorite is still a bit of a mystery with only three lifetime starts and ridden by three different jockeys. There is little to say about him that hasn’t been said before except that he has been one of the few horses who have actually excited fans with his turn of foot and explosive stretch run. But there is always a catch to that because we rarely see Derby favorites with his style of running. Now they are horses who run on or close to the pace like California Chrome, American Pharoah, Nyquist, Justify, Always Dreaming, Maximum Security, and Epicenter. Even Essential Quality was running second in the Blue Grass Stakes and Tiz the Law was never far off the lead. It seems as if everyone is just waiting for that bullet to come along and dazzle us with his speed, or even tactical speed. but so far no one has, so we have latched on to Sierra Leone, who at least has dazzled us from back to front by blowing by horses with his big bounding strides, rapid-fire acceleration, and relentless stretch run. Even if he wins the Blue Grass we’ll be hearing how the last winner of that historic race to capture the Derby was 33 years ago. Chad Brown has done well in the Blue Grass and would love nothing more than to finally complete that elusive double.
2—Timberlake (Brad Cox, Into Mischief – Pin Up, by Lookin At Lucky)
For a No. 2 ranked horse he didn’t blow anyone away with his workmanlike victory in the Rebel Stakes, but he did seem to work out some of the kinks and showed he has made a good transition from 2 to 3 and should be ready to move forward after a solid “3 ½” Thoro-Graph number, which was still in line with his back-to-back “2’s” to close out his 2-year-old campaign, making him the most consistently fast horse on the Derby trail. Although he seems likely for the Arkansas Derby, Churchill Downs lists him as a possible for the Blue Grass Stakes, but they list most of the top contenders as possible for multiple stakes. To demonstrate the lack of planning by trainers and how they have no idea where to run, Deterministic is listed as a possible for the Florida Derby, Arkansas Derby, Wood Memorial, and Blue Grass Stakes. There was some reluctance about becoming too enamored with Timberlake following his lackluster fourth-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, but he seems to have blossomed physically during his vacation and returned looking more like the horse who won the Champagne Stakes in the slop so impressively. And for him to run so well on a fast track was at least a confidence builder for his followers. This year, any step forward is a giant step.
3—Fierceness (Todd Pletcher, City of Light – Nonna Bella, by Stay Thirsty)
I said I was not going to pay attention to his works any longer, but I lied. For whatever it’s worth I have to mention his last five-furlong work in 1:00 4/5 in company with the talented Tuscan Sky and how strong and determined he looked powering by him on the turn after wire despite being on the outside. The Florida Derby can’t some soon enough, as the well of material to write about is drying up fast. The trick is to somehow keep it gushing leading up to and on May 6. If it does, then the praise will also start gushing again as it did after his career debut and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. It has to be frustrating for Fierceness’s supporters and his connections to know what extraordinary feats this colt is capable of, but so far it’s been on his terms. The great Victorian novelist and poet George Eliot once wrote, “It is never too late to be what you might have been.” And it is certainly not too late for Fierceness. We have already seen on two occasions what he might have been; this is the perfect time to finally show what he is. I realize it is pure folly to anthropomorphize a horse, but sometimes you can’t help trying to get inside their head. You often hear of trainers attempting to do so, and I saw Jay Robbins succeed with Tiznow. But getting back to the reality of the Kentucky Derby trail, I know I am looking forward to seeing which Fierceness is going to show up in the Florida Derby or possibly the Blue Grass and if he can convince all those who have given up on him and consider him too unreliable that he does possess the fortitude and consistency you expect from a champion.
4—Mystik Dan (Kenny McPeek, Goldencents – Ma’am by Colonel John)
It’s hard to believe that we are well into March and not only is he still the only horse on the Derby trail to run a triple-digit Beyer speed figure with a 101, the two closest figures to him are a 95 and 94, both in allowance races. And on Thoro-Graph the closest number to his “1/4” was the “1” by Forever Young in Saudi Arabia. After that you have to go all the way to a “2 ½” run by the one-two finishers of the Gotham in the slop. So is Mystik Dan that much faster than everyone else or did he run a freakishly good race in the slop, taking advantage of what has been called a rail biased track? Well, in the only other two-turn stakes that day, the 1 1/16 miles was run in 1:45 compared to Mystik Dan’s 1:43 3/5 and the winner of that race, who was all out to win, was widest of all in the stretch. In a good 3-year-old maiden race the highly regarded Dimatic from the Steve Asmussen barn ran his 1 1/16 miles in 1:46 1/5 and also was on the outside. So the track certainly didn’t look that fast for him to get a 101 Beyer, and how much of a rail bias could there have been for him to get almost a zero on Thoro-Graph, in which ground loss is major factor in determining a speed rating. Yet he still received a very fast number in spite of saving ground and coming through on the rail. Finally, the runner-up , Just Steel, was beaten eight lengths and still received a “2 ½” Thoro-Graph number, which has not been topped so far in this country. So perhaps people have been too quick to dismiss Mystik Dan’s victory by attributing it to the slop and a rail bias. Could his performance actually have been legitimate? Of course, he no doubt loved the surface, but just watch him striding out down the stretch and ask yourself if you have seen a prettier sight all year.
5—Deterministic (Christophe Clement, Liam’s Map – Giulio’s Jewel, by Speightstown)
One of the reasons why I rank this colt so high despite history and logic being against him is that he does things he shouldn’t be doing and he makes you take notice of him, as he did in the Gotham Stakes, displaying so many attributes of a special horse. We can see the first example of that looking back to when he was a yearling. Every year, his breeders, Tom Hinkle, his brother Henry, and Tom’s daughter Anne assess the yearlings and individually place a value on them and then take the average. They budgeted Deterministic, who had always done everything the right way, at $150,000. When it came time for the sale they put a $199,000 reserve on him. But they noticed he was being shown a lot. Yes, he was by an exciting young stallion, out of a great female family, but buyers were attracted to him for other reasons. He moved so well, almost with cat-like agility; he looked great physically; he had a terrific mind; and like in the Gotham he made you notice him. The Hinkles began to think they had something more than they bargained for. As Anne said, “When a yearling is shown that often they often become sour by sales time, but he was so professional right to the end.” He wound up selling for $625,000, which was $426,000 over his reserve. He has used all his attributes to overcome bone bruising and surgery to remove an ankle chip at 2 and burst onto the Derby scene late, making his presence felt immediately. Now he has professional handicapppers and analysts flocking to him just as the buyers did at the sale and just as bettors did in the Gotham, sending him off at 7-2 despite coming off a seven-month layoff and making his stakes debut in an 11-horse field in the slop. Can he win the Derby off three lifetime starts, only one two-turn race, and going into the race off only two starts in nine months? History and logic say no. Everything we have learned about Deterministic and what our eyes tell us say yes.
6—Conquest Warrior (Shug McGaughey, City of Light – Tea Time, by Pulpit)
Following his recent allowance victory you can either focus on his visually stunning performance, in which he looked like a dominant force just cruising by a pretty good horse in Merit with those big bounding strides and drawing off under wraps, or you can focus on his uninspiring 84 Beyer speed figure. I was looking forward to seeing his Thoro-Graph numbers and his “5” was certainly good enough, especially with Dornoch running a “6 ½” in the Fountain of Youth Stakes the next day. Pattern-wise Conquest Warrior has run a “5 ½,” a “6 ½,” and a “5,” so he has never run a slow race, and he had tons of trouble in that middle race and still ran a respectable number. He’ll have to move forward several points in the Florida Derby, but I believe this race has at least put him in a position to take a big step up. It won’t be easy against the likes of Fierceness, Hades, and Resilience. But even a good second-place finish will put him in the Derby and that is all you can ask for after getting such a late start and not being rushed to make the big race, which is something McGaughey would never do. He may be a dying breed, but he knows it’s a long year and he has never gone into the Derby with a horse he didn’t feel had a big chance.
7—Dornoch (Danny Gargan, Good Magic – Puca, by Big Brown)
You don’t need me to tell you what a mess the Fountain of Youth turned out to be with the scratches of three of the four favorites. Dornoch did what he had to against what was left, but many feel he should have done more just on his talent and vast superiority over those behind him. We have established that it was not a visually impressive race, and from a handicapper’s perspective his “6 ½” Thoro-Graph number was mediocre at best and a slight regression from the back-to-back “6’s” he ran to close out his 2-year-old campaign. Just to be fair, Sierra Leone, who he defeated in the Remsen Stakes also regressed slightly off the Remsen, but that was only his second career start and he regressed from a “4 ¾” to a “5 ½” over a horrendous racetrack. We know Dornoch has more to give, but as long as keeps racing so greenly and does things that surely will get him beat in the Kentucky Derby it is hard to embrace him and get excited about his chances, even having won three in a row and never finishing worse than second. There are so many things about this horse I admire and that is why it is so frustrating to have to rank him lower than his record indicates. As a historian, you have root for his dam to become the first mare ever to produce back-to-back Kentucky Derby winners. All we can do now is wait to find out where he will show up next, most likely the Blue Grass, and see if he can smooth out all those rough edges and show us enough signs that he is turning into a professional racehorse.
8—Just a Touch (Brad Cox, Justify – Touching Beauty, by Tapit)
If you loved Deterministic’s performance in the Gotham and don’t mind him having only two lifetime starts, then may I turn your attention to Just a Touch, who despite getting beat two lengths still received the same “2 ½” Thoro-Graph number as the winner and the same number he received in his career debut. You don’t see many horses run that fast in their first two starts. And as we mentioned last week, he is such a massive horse it had to be difficult getting over that waterlogged track, while Deterministic seemed to skip over it. Florent Geroux said he was having a hard time getting a hold of the track while on his left lead on the far turn as he was trying to close in on the leaders. Then after straightening out in the stretch and switching to his right lead he started to pick it up and was able to close well for second. And remember, Just a Touch is a May foal and still has a great deal of room for improvement. He has yet to run on a fast track and we have seen what Justify did on fast tracks. One of the most telling phone calls I have had this year was when I called David Scanlon to get some background on Sierra Leone, who he broke and trained. The first thing out of his mouth was not about Sierra Leone; it was how he knew Just a Touch was special the first time he laid eyes on him and I hadn’t even mentioned Just a Touch. I didn’t even know he had him. He raved how he had the most beautiful walk and was so quick even with having “the biggest gaskins (the hind leg muscle that helps provide power and propel a horse forward) and forearms (the front leg muscle that helps increase a horse’s stride) I ever saw.” If this horse ever runs to his physicality, watch out.
9—Domestic Product (Chad Brown, Practical Joke – Goods and Services, by Paynter)
It would be nice if just once something definitive could come out of one of these preps. If it’s not sloppy tracks, key scratches, or slow final times it is the absurdly slow paces like in the Holy Bull and Tampa Bay Derby, both in which Domestic Product just happened to be a starter. I just want to see this horse be able to settle early and not have to be restrained behind a snaillike pace and then have to close off it. It seems as if each stakes creates more confusion than we had before. So what do we make of the Tampa Derby? Basically not too much, and that is not the fault of Domestic Product, who came home in a crazy :22 4/5 final quarter and final sixteenth in just under :06 seconds to beat a tough horse with a home court advantage and who benefited from a pace that was a ridiculous 21 to 27 lengths slower than the Challenger Stakes for older horses earlier on the card. How they can get stakes horses to go in :51 and 1:16 1/5 going 1 1/16 miles is beyond me. Where does that leave Domestic Product? I’m actually a little more impressed than I was because he had to show a lot of fight and grit getting bounced around bumping with the second and third-place finishers. I am glad Brown has decided to run him again, likely in the Wood Memorial, because he needs a normal prep with a normal pace and I would give him no shot in the Derby coming off an eight-week layoff, a 1 1/16-mile boat race and an 82 Beyer figure. I have liked this colt since his maiden victory and I firmly believe we haven’t seen close to his best. But he does need that final prep to boost his speed figures.
10–Catching Freedom (Brad Cox, Constitution, Catch My Drift, by Pioneerof the Nile)
He turned in a sharp five-furlong work in 1:00 4/5 for the Louisiana Derby, where he should relish the 1 3/16 miles and long stretch as long as he doesn’t get himself into trouble or trouble doesn’t find him. And perfecting his lead changes would no doubt help. His Thoro-Graph numbers have been slowly moving forward, but like so many others it is time to take that big jump and show everyone he is a legitimate Derby contender. He has run well at Churchill Downs, Oaklawn, and Fair Grounds and on fast and sloppy tracks, so we know he can handle all kinds of surfaces. And he gets Flavien Prat for the first time, which is always a big plus. So he has the trainer, jockey, pedigree, and running style. He just needs to take advantage of it and show what he can work out a clean trip and turn in a professional performance. You know Prat will at least have him in a good position to win.
11—Track Phantom (Steve Asmussen, Quality Road – Miss Sunset, by Into Mischief)
It’s still a couple of weeks away, but right now he looks like the only true speed pointing for the Louisiana Derby, which is hard to believe in a 100-point race, but this year speed is not a word we’ve used too often, and this colt is tough, classy, and consistent speed, even though like most of the others his speed figures have not been particularly fast, ranging from a “5” to a “9” on Thoro-Graph and regressing slightly in his last two races. He basically runs as fast as he has to and we really haven’t seen any speedy tracks this year. Tuscan Sky could be a pace presence to keep him honest. Despite his speed figures, if Track Phantom winds up wiring his field or winning from just off the pace going 1 3/16 miles he has to be considered a very dangerous opponent in the Kentucky Derby. His sire and broodmare are speed influences who can carry their speed, and the bottom part of his pedigree is made up of mostly of obscure names, so we really have no clue how far he wants to go, especially with him getting nailed by Sierra Leone in the Risen Star after having a clear lead at the eighth pole and setting a slow uncontested pace. But for now he looks to be a major presence who can dictate terms in the Louisiana Derby.
12—Honor Marie (Whit Beckman, Honor Code – Dame Marie, by Smart Strike)L
He is one horse who desperately needs a good contentious pace in the Louisiana Derby, but at least he has the 1 3/16 miles and long stretch going for him. Beckman said he is really looking forward to seeing what he can do with a honest pace and was thrilled with colt’s five-furlong breeze Sunday in 1:00 4/5, saying, “I’m very happy with how easily he’s doing things lately and enjoying himself.” We know he has a powerful closing kick and if he has to settle for second because of the pace it wouldn’t be the end of the world. Right now it looks as if Tuscan Sky would be the horse to put some pressure on Track Phantom. So all in all you just want to see him have a chance by getting a good setup and then let him do his stuff in the stretch, which he didn’t have a chance to do in the Risen Star Stakes. Remember, if he can get through this race, he does have two wins and a second in his three starts at Churchill Downs.
13—Hades (Joe Orseno, Awesome Slew – The Shady Lady, by Quality Road)
I want to rank him higher and I believe he should be ranked higher, but I just don’t know who to lower, especially with the Louisiana Derby coming first. For an undefeated horse who has looked last year’s champ in the eye and disposed of him he has gotten very little respect. I have watched all his races again, as well as some works and even a gallop and my main conclusion is that this horse simply does not want to stop running. Orseno fell in love with him at the 2-year-old when he worked a quarter in :21 1/5, then galloped out in :32 2/5 and pulled up a half in :46 flat. His gallop-outs in his races and in his works have been sensational; he just keeps going, and in his gallops he has his head down and neck arched and is really into the bit. In his most recent work, a sharp five furlongs in 1:00 1/5, he blew away his workmate and I loved seeing him gallop out a mile in 1:42. In the Holy Bull, Domestic Product was closing, but watching it again it looked for a second like he was going to run by Hades, but the winner found another gear and actually opened up on him. He’s won going head and head on the lead and coming from sixth at the eighth pole, and the closer I look at him the more it’s possible he is that good, making him a legitimate Derby contender who can run as fast or as slow as he needs to. This is a horse who can work half-miles in :48 and change and in between breeze a mile in 1:47 4/5, which could easily be seen as a very fast two-minute lick and more of an old school move. I just would like to see him corner a bit better turning for home and I look forward to his rematch with Fierceness to see just what we’re dealing with, and that goes for both horses.
14—Forever Young (Yoshito Yahagi, Real Steel – Forever Darling, by Congrats)
I realize I lowered him for no reason, but he has been floating up and down the Rankings for a while as we try to juggle the American horses who have been a total puzzle and no more than guesses. I believe he is a serious Derby horse, but his day will come to prove it. The opinions in America vary as to whether he was impressive or not in his nose victory over Book em Danno in the Saudi Derby. Some thought he was sloppy looking being stuck on his left lead the entire stretch run and drifting, and being life and death to be beat a lightly regarded American horse. Others feel he has to be an extraordinary horse to have won despite so many things going wrong in the race, such as his bad start and racing very wide on the turn. And his supporters believe Book em Danno, who was coming off a 12 ½-length romp in a seven-furlong stakes, is a fast horse who is dangerous up to a mile. Now he stretches out to 1 3/16 miles against what should be a tougher field of horses more geared toward classic distances. And he still has to get enough points to make the Derby field.. We know he has tactical speed, which he showed in his seven-length victory two starts back, and, once again, he received a “1” Thoro-Graph number in the Saudi Derby, which makes him the clear-cut second fastest 3-year-old we have seen this year. So we play the waiting game once more, knowing if Forever Young can handle the UAE Derby field, which could include South American horses that are 4-year-olds by our standards, he would have to be considered a major threat at Churchill Downs, especially knowing his trainer has already made a huge splash in the United States winning two Breeders’ Cup races in one year, including the Breeders’ Cup Distaff with a 49-1 shot.
15—Liberal Arts (Robbie Medina, Arrogate, Ismeme, by Tribal Rule)
It was good to see him turn in a bullet half-mile work in :48 2/5 to keep him sharp for what looks to be a very tough field in the Arkansas Derby, especially with the possibility of a Baffert invader such as Maymun showing up. This colt has is small but loyal following, but he is still under the radar and heading for what looks to be the deepest prep of the year. With the new Future Wager this week I would definitely place a wager on him at what should be huge odds. For a horse who was beaten 8 ½ lengths in his last race he is an attractive proposition because he looked great coming down the stretch In a race in which no one closed from the back and he had no chance of winning. And he is as consistent as they come, having finished in the money in all six of his starts, with all his speed figures improving with every race. He was originally scheduled to have three preps at Oaklawn, but the weather disrupted those plans by forcing Oaklawn to move up the date of the Southwest Stakes, which in turn forced many trainers to skip the Rebel Stakes with some going to Fair Grounds to train. He was not even close to being fully cranked for the Southwest and he no doubt will be wound much tighter for the Arkansas Derby.
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR
Rather than keep diluting the Rankings with 20 horses, many of whom have no definitive plans, I will go back to 15 horses. You know where I have TUSCAN SKY, HALL OF FAME, RESILIENCE, ENCINO, and AGATE ROAD ranked from last week and what I think of them, and we have to lump TUSCAN GOLD, CAPITAL IDEA, JUST STEEL, COMMON DEFENSE, STRONGHOLD, PANDAGATE, REAL MEN VIOLIN, LE DOM BRO, NORTHERN FLAME, SEIZE THE GREY, and UNCLE HEAVY in there with them until we know where all these horses are running. Once we do we can sort them all out. Some of these can easily become Top 10 horses. This is how the points system and having so many lightly raced horses with few or no points have affected the Derby trail.
So many trainers now pretty much train to get to the Derby more than they train to win it. It is two career starts and hope for the best in the final prep. It is Todd Pletcher losing a leading contender like Locked and still trying to figure out where to run his seven other Derby hopefuls. Born Noble for example is listed as a possible for four 100-point preps and likely won’t be running in any of them. Even Deterministic, with 50 points from the Gotham, is listed as a possible for the same four races. That is hardly planning out a schedule; it is watching the weather, the competition, and the traveling situation and then choosing, sometimes on the fly, what you feel is either the best or easiest place to run in order to get into the Derby and not have to worry about points.
This does not pertain to many of the contenders who are committed to the Fair Grounds, Oaklawn, or Gulfstream route to the Derby and stick to it. But we have so many live late developers now with few or no points that their trainers’ only plan is to stay on the yellow brick road to Emerald City as long as possible and worry about getting to see the wizard after they get there.
Looking ahead to the big 100-point races, Tuscan Sky should make his presence felt in the Louisiana Derby, where he would join stablemate Agate Road. I think Resilience is ready to make a major impact and he surely could leap back on the Rankings after the Florida Derby, as could Encino after the Blue Grass, Capital Idea after the Wood Memorial, and Hall of Fame after the Arkansas Derby. I’m still waiting to see what if any plans Chad Brown has for Tuscan Gold, who also has a bright future.
OK, who says there isn’t a star on this year’s Derby tail? How about a filly who was a temperamental mess during her racing career and was claimed for $15,000? Her name is Courtly Dee and she became one of the most successful broodmares of our time, being named Broodmare of the Year in 1983 and designated a Reines-de-Course mare for her influence on the breed. Courtly Dee produced eight stakes winners, including three Grade 1 winners. What she created was a sisterhood of stakes winners, passed down from one generation to another.
As for this year’s Derby trail, from three of her daughters – Aquilegia, Aishah, and champion Althea – have come Gotham Stakes winner Deterministic (Aquilegia), allowance winner and major Derby contender Conquest Warrior (Althea), and Rebel Stakes runner-up Common Defense (Aishah). A true matriarch, Courtly Dee’s family is responsible for such top-class horses as Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Bayern, two-time Japan Cup winner and Dubai Sheema Classic winner Gentildonna (both through Aquilegia), and the winners of the Haskell Invitational, Arkansas Derby, Spinster, Go For Wand, Super Derby, Frizette, Withers, Peter Pan and many more.
Getting back to the mob pounding on the door, RESILIENCE, one of my enticing dark horses, worked a sharp five furlongs in 1:01 and definitely bears watching in the Florida Derby. Yes, there is a non Baffert horse trained in California and STRONGHOLD worked five furlongs in 1:00 3/5. REAL MACHO’s connections are willing to cross out his dull fourth-place finish in the Fountain of Youth Stakes and will give him another shot in the Florida Derby.
NO MORE TIME, despite the crawling pace in the Tampa Bay Derby, showed his Sam F. Davis victory was legitimate, running a gutsy race in the Tampa Derby and no doubt continuing on the Derby trail. But with him going straight to the Kentucky Derby I can’t see him being any factor. And you can’t forget the excellent performances by GRAND MO THE FIRST and second-time starter GOOD MONEY, who were right there in the four-horse blanket finish. The latter could be something Chad Brown keeps in his back pocket for the Preakness. But with so many horses right there at the finish, you do have to wonder how relevant this race was.
It’s not often you find Todd Pletcher horses who are way under the radar, but there is one horse he has who is worth watching and that is MOONLIGHT, who could try the synthetic in the Jeff Ruby, having already run well on grass in his career debut, beaten only a neck. If he runs well enough to get in the Derby just remember he broke his maiden in his only dirt race on a fast track, winning an off-the-turf race eased up by eight lengths in 1:36 flat for the mile and getting a 90 Beyer speed figure. He then ran in the Street Sense Stakes in the slop and finished a good second to Liberal Arts. In the Remsen run in the mud he dropped far back and rallied to finish fourth in a race where we saw Dornoch, Sierra Leone, Drum Roll Please, and Domestic Product all come back to win a stakes, with another horse, Le Dom Brois, finishing second in the Fountain of Youth. He made his first start this year in the Risen Star, which was a throw-out race on that horrible track. He did make a good run on the turn, but was forced to go 10-wide turning for home and just plodded home from there. All I know is that he showed great mechanics in his only race on a fast track, running perfectly staight down the stretch, and if he can get enough points in the Jeff Ruby he could be an interesting horse getting back on a fast dirt track at Churchill Downs
This is the time of year when the last of the latecomers show up to the party unannounced in the hope of making their presence felt. Some are not early nominees and must become a late nominee by April 1 at a cost of $6,000. One such horse who would have to be a late nominee is EVENING NEWS, who burst on the scene with a stunning 8 ¼-length allowance victory at Turfway Park, which is starting to become serious launching pad for the Derby. And this coming out party by Evening News could put him in the Jeff Ruby Steaks if they wish to remain on the synthetic surface. This colt has a interesting history. A well-bred son of Nyquist, out of a Bernardini mare, he was purchased at the Saratoga yearling sale for $300,000 by Three Chimneys Farm and turned over to Steve Asmussen.
After two dreadful performances on dirt and grass, he was put in a $50,000 claiming race at Turfway Park, finishing third. Asmussen then ran him again for a $50,000 claiming tag and added Lasix. Evening News won by 3 ¾ lengths and was claimed by trainer James Noble. He then was moved up to allowance company and finished a good second before romping in his most recent race, while now trained by Michael Pino. In that race he left Brad Cox’s highly regarded 6-5 favorite GETTYSBURG ADRESS, who was scratched out of the John Battaglia to run here, far back in third. What they do next and how he’ll run without Lasix is anyone’s guess, but it has been an interesting journey so far.
If you want some other names to remember you can start with NATIVE LAND, a son of Mastery trained by Riley Mott, who crushed an 11-horse maiden field going 1 1/8 miles at Oaklawn Park with an absolutely devastating move from 10th to first and then powering home to win by 6 ½ lengths. The way he inhaled horses after passing the three-eighths pole and then cut the corner with great agility turning for home was something to see. The time was only 1:52, but Native Land came home his last eighth in :12 flat. I am curious to find out just what we’re dealing with here.
Not to be totally outdone by his son, Bill Mott turned to the Gulfstream all-weather track, sending out Godolphin’s wel-bred HUNT BALL, a son of Into Mischief, out of a Tapit mare, to a solid 1 ½-length victory going a mile and 70 yards. Finally, at Aqueduct, we saw an impressive come-from-behind maiden victory by the Danny Gargan-trained SOCIETY MAN going a mile. So there are few new names, but definitely keep an eye on Native Land.
Racing historian, author, and award-winning retired journalist for the Daily Racing Form and The Blood-Horse, Steve Haskin was inducted into the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame’s Media Roll of Honor in 2016. Known for his racing knowledge and insightful prose, he has been an exclusive contributor to Secretariat.com since 2020.
The Louisiana Derby with its extended distance of 1 3/16 miles since 2020 has not only been an ideal Derby rehearsal (conveniently held 6 weeks before D day) but it has also been the luckiest prep. Country House (4th in 2019) and Mandaloun (6th in 2021) won the Derby after the original winners were disqualified.
Before those two fluky outcomes the Lousiana Derby had produced two Derby winners in Grindstone (1st in 1996) and Funny Cide (2nd in the 2003 Louisiana Derby).
The 2021 Louisiana Derby was very fruitful for the Kentucky Derby with 4 top finishers Hot Rod Charlie (2nd), O Besos (4th), Midnight Bourbon(5th), and of course Mandaloun (1st).
In the 2022 edition of the Lousiana Derby, Epicenter won in a new track record and went on to be a valiant runner-up in Kentucky as his springboard for a championship season.
Track Phantom is the only contender replicating Epicenter’s as both took the Gun Runner, Lecomte and Risen Star route. Both Asmussen aces also display the very same running style.
The lack of strong frontrunners would greatly benefit Track Phantom … unless Hall of Fame goes back to his impressive maiden win I picture Track Phantom dictating a comfortable pace albeit the outside PP.
It would be good to see strong pacesetters qualifying for the Kentucky Derby… and Track Phantom has shown he is a worthy one so far…
Guys,
It’s time to make some money off the LA Derby
STALLION – Medaglia D’ Oro – Never had a serious KD contender. But that’s about to change.
26 career G1 winners.
55 career $1M+ sales horses.
The leading active North American sire by global Stakes winners.
Successful Pedigree Cross -Medaglia D’ Oro over Mr. Prospector dam line –
FOUR LIFETIME TOP PERFORMERS
Golden Sixty – Dam sire -Distorted Humor/Forty Niner/Mr. Prospector; Starts30 (26-2-1) Earnings – $21.1M
Songbird – Dam sire -West Acre/ Forty Niner/Mr. Prospector; Starts 15 (13-2-0) Earnings – $4.6M
Rachel Alexandra – Dam sire -Roar/Forty Niner/Mr. Prospector; Starts 19 (13-5-0) Earnings – $3.6M
Talismanic – Dam sire -Magic Mission/Machiavellian/Mr. Prospector; Starts 23 (8-7-1) Earnings – $3.2M
TUSCAN COLD (Medaglia D’ Oro/Valadorna by Curlin /Smart Strike/Mr. Prospector)
Curlin’s race record racehorse is by far better than the above dam sires. Tuscan Gold’s dam earned over $670K.
PURCHASE PRICE
Keeneland Yearling – $600,000 – Must have checked a lot of boxes.
BREEDING ANALYSIS-
Endurance/Routing
All the top 4 Medaglia D’ Oro progenies above won major endurance/routing races.
PAST PERFORMANCE
MSW – 8F – Finished 4th by 3 1/4 to the #1 ranked Sierra Leone. Bumped with opponent and was taken up at start.
MSW – 8 1/2F- Won by 6 1/2L. Prominent swept to lead and drew off in short stretch.
PURCHASE PRICE
Keeneland Yearling – $600,000 – Must have checked a lot of boxes.
TRAINER
This trainer CHAD BROWN already has possibly two in the KD starting gates i.e., Seirra Leone/Domestic Product. He stated some time ago that TUSCAN COLD was probably his best KD prospect. This isn’t a trainer to make frivolous statements.
So, I did the groundwork. Your take is simple. Just play him on top and step to the bank.
NB: If you are a non-believer. Review TUSCAN COLD’s debut and pay close attention to the way he moved towards the leaders on the back stretch. Then imagine if he was able sustain that move to the line. That was 4 months ago. He is 4 months stronger.
Steve – Do you have the ThoroGraphs for Catching Freedom and Hall of Fame from the Risen Star? Thanks.
Bill, hope HM can get second.
Hi Mike
If Honor Marie can replicate the form, he displayed winning the KyJC, he certainly has shot to finish in the money.
Good luck, Mike.
I like Honor Marie a lot. Looks like there is a late comer named Betsy trying to jump on the bandwagon .
RE: Louisiana Derby, Saturday, 3-23 (R12)
Track Phantom and Catching Freedom appear to stand head and shoulders above the rest of the field. Breaking from the far outside could present a problem for Track Phantom, but with his early speed that he has displayed in all six career starts, I believe he’ll be fine in P/P #12. As a reference, he broke from P/P #11 in the Risen Star, and by the time he hit the 1/4 pole, he was leading the field, and continued to lead the field until he was caught late by Sierra Leone.
Catching Freedom has displayed an impressive closing kick, and with the Fair Grounds’ long stretch, he just might be able to run down Track Phantom in the late going. Bottom line, Catching Freedom and Track Phantom appear to be much the best.
I’ll key those two on top, in the first 2 slots, with Hall of Fame, Agate Road, Honor Marie, Real Men Violin, Common Defense and Tuscan Gold in the 3rd and 4th slots, in a $1.00 Superfecta P/W wager.
That is: 5,12/ 5,12/ 2,4,7,9,10,11/ 2,4,7,9,10,11. (cost: $60.00)
That is a very logic bet Bill.
I got the same numbers except I am swaping Hall of Fame for your Catching Freedom and I have Antiquarian instead of Agate Road who I believe will be scratched in favor of the Jeff Ruby… let’s see how the final entries and last minute information come up …
Sounds good, Nelson.
“Track Phantom and Catching Freedom appear to stand head and shoulders above the rest.”
Below is list of the entrants with graded stakes experience. I cannot concur that the 2 entrants cited in your statement above fit the status you have ascribed.
Track Phantom – Winner of a G2 & G3
Honor Marie – Winner of a G2
Catching Freedom – 3rd G3; winer of listed stakes.
Common Defense -2nd G2
Agate Road – Winner of a G2 & 2nd G3
Real Men Violin – 2nd G2
Track Phantom’s resume reflect a 2nd place finish to Real Men Violin who closed from 7L off the pace to tag him close home. Although Real Men Violin finished 8th and Track Phantom 2nd, in the Risen Str. One colt hadn’t made a start in almost 3 months and should be better for the outing.
There is an entrant whose presence in the field should be the real focus as its resume is lighter than air.
I’ll stand by my statement, Counter Point, (be it good, bad or indifferent).
Keep in mind that Agate Road’s win in the G2 Pilgrim was on turf, and it appears Pletcher will run him in the Jeff Ruby Steaks, not the Louisiana Derby.
That said, I’ll replace Agate Road with Antiquarian, with Johnny V aboard, in my Superfecta PW wager.
5,12/ 5,12/ 2,3,7,9,10,11/2,3,7,9,10,11
BTW, you stated, “There is an entrant whose presence in the field should be the real focus as its resume is lighter than air”.
Just as a suggestion, naming that “entrant” would probably give your statement more credibility, IMO.
See sale proposal above.
While I probably should not be giving you betting advice, Bill, I think there’s a very high probability that either Track Phantom or Catching Freedom (or both) will miss the top two (one will probably run third, just to break your heart). I’m basing my opinion on the 1 3/16 mile distance of the race. Maybe hedge your bets with a boxed superfecta?
Hi Ms Blacktype
As I mentioned to Counter Point, I’ll keep Catching Freedom and Track Phantom, on top, in the first two slots, with six horses’ underneath in the 3rd and 4th slots. It appears Pletcher will enter Agate Road in the Jeff Ruby Steaks, in which case, I’ll replace him with Antiquarian.
From my perspective, Track Phantom is the horse the rest will have to catch, with Catching Freedom having the best chance to run him (TF) down in the deep stretch.
Good luck, Ms Blacktype.
And to you, too!
I played around with The Futures, nothing big but big odds!….I took an “all-burger” to Honor Marie, Conquest Warrior, Mystic Dan Oaks–Derby Double!, and a small win on She’s A Tempest, at 99-1 maybe a lot more than the 99-1!…
WHOOPS!!! AHHH NO! Didn’t talk All “Burger”…..rather I took “All Others”…..
Matthew, I think you just came up with a new handle for “all others.” I like it!
I have gone totally crazy. I just placed my biggest wager ever in the KD Future Pool. The wager was based on nothing to do with betting interest’s PP, but on intuition rather than known facts.
If one is crazy enough to make a non-refundable wager on a future event. One must be likewise crazy to make said wager on a hunch.
Hey Counter Point
Are you going to tell us the name of your “biggest wager ever in the KD Future Pool”, or just keep us hanging?
Love the gut wagering. Well done. How R.P. McMurphy of you and on this of all days. Lunacy has its rewards my friend, so welcome to the club. Please note, you can check out any time you’d like, but you can never leave.
The Champagne is the oldest Stakes for 2-year olds in America and its list of winners and runners include a myriad of Hall of Fame and elite Thoroughbreds. Just mentioning the stars emerging from the Champagne during the 1960’s and 1970’s would be too long… but you all know who they are…!
If you happened to star following American horse racing in the seventies, then when that decade was over, you would have written that winning the Champagne Stakes was a sort of insurance for greatness.
However, it took only another decade to realize that the trail of glory drawn by the Champagne Stakes was in fact ending…!
The last 45 Champagne winners show only one Hall of Fame (Easy Goer) and one Derby winner (Sea Hero in 1993). Derby winner Super Saver was a Champagne runner (4th in 2009 edition). In fact, during those 45 years only 13 Champagne victors endured to run in the Derby.
It is worth noting that other Champagne participants were brilliant horses like Pine Bluff, Point Given, Lemon Drop Kid, Afleet Alex, Union Rags, Birdstone (at 1 1/16 mile), Honor Code, Code of Honor, and Good Magic.
Tiz the Law was the only one close to rekindle the historic glory of the Champagne Stakes the present century. The other Champagne winners since 2012 ended up being excellent sprinters/milers with Jackie’s Warrior earning Sprinter championship honors.
This year, Timberlake is attempting to become the first Champagne champ to win the Derby since 1993. The son of Into Mischief looks to be more than a brilliant miler if you consider the dosage of (European) stamina from his female family.
The fading of the Champagne’s splendor over the last 35 years could be taken as an undeniable sign that the modern American Thoroughbreds are becoming less resilient as they are bred to be more and more faster. It would be a case of high speed cancelling durability. On the other hand, many would argue that it is only a consequence of diversification and expansion of the venues for top horses to compete…i.e. the rise of the West.
This year could be the year of the East… The old guard would be delighted to relive the Golden age of racing even if it is a bitty breathe of it…!
Christophe Clement Racing Stable
@clementstable
·
36m
PANDAGATE had his final preparation stateside this morning
@payson_park
and we are on course for the
@RacingDubai
UAE Derby
Newgrange not shipping to run in Dubai Cup.
Breathing issue.
But closely named Newgate shipped….he is peaking……I saw him break his maiden on July 30, 2022 he’s a beautiful chestnut if I remember correctly…..
Yes, as far as I know Newgate is shipping or has shipped.
The field for the Dubai Cup is pretty well set.
Newgate is actually a bay. He has black points (anklets, mane and tail). He is an unusual bay color or rather not very common color bay.
Deterministic missed a work that was scheduled for this weekend. Hopefully, Christophe Clement will reschedule a work in the next few days, to keep his colt fit and ready for his next start, which has yet to be determined.
Fingers crossed that everything is ok with my top contender on the Derby trail.
If there’s anyone out there that can provide any late word on Deterministic’s training regimen, I would appreciate hearing from you.
Thanks.
DETERMINISTIC – Maybe Steve H will have an update for us
Thanks for the reply, Mark.
Hopefully, Steve will have the latest info on Deterministic when he posts his Derby Rankings – Week 9.
Missing a scheduled work is cause for concern.
He’s fine. Working Wednesday.
Many thanks, Steve. That’s great news.
Thank you Steve
The next 5 weeks will be a battle against injuries, health setbacks and weariness that come with training hard toward the Classics…
Hope the attrition this year remains low …
A recent press release from the Christophe Clement camp, stated “Deterministic could work in the middle of next week”, and the Wood remains a “strong possibility”. However, “other options remain open”. Stay tuned.
Thanx for the update Bill
You’re welcome, Mark.
I’m still concerned about Deterministic’s training regimen, and the uncertainty regarding his next start.
However, I remain confident that Mr. Clement will make the right decision moving forward.
Improbable now runs with the Heavenly Herd.
Condolences to the connections and his caregivers.
Damn. Just damn
He was safely off the racetrack, and at stud. Do you know what happened to him, Lynda?
He was at Rood & Riddle being treated for ataxia (hindquarters) and was responding to treatment.
Last night when he attempted to lie down he fell awkwardly and fractured his tibia.
The fracture was not repairable and he was euthanized.
No info available on cause for ataxia.
He was 8 years old.
Gee, that’s sad. I always liked him, and what an unfortunate way to go.
Happy St. Paddy’s Day to all you lassies and laddies out there and may you win your own pot o’gold today.
Thank you John and same to you!
Slainte!
Bill Mott says that Just F Y I will be entered in next Saturday’s Davona Dale at Gulfstream. We’ll get to see how the daughter of Justify comes back in her delayed first start of the year.
The headline on HRN read “Endlessly is 5-2 for Jeff Ruby, first 100-pt Derby prep”. That seemed odd to me. But they were being cute. Turfway is running their races in the daytime next Saturday. The Jeff Ruby is scheduled to run at 6:25pm. Just ahead of the Louisiana Derby at 6:42pm. I guess they were right as long as they don’t suffer any delays or Tote-Snafus.
Whatever. Nice betting races. Jose at Turfway and Irad at Fair Grounds. I notice that Frankie Dettori is named on several horses at Turfway on Saturday. I would think that he’d be drawn to a track with some turf racing. I wonder if he’s ever raced at Turfway before? I might give Agate Road a look if he actually starts there.
Todd Pletcher cross entered Agate Road in the Lousiana Derby and in the Jeff Ruby… I think he will decide for Agate Road to join Noted for the $700K purse at Turfway and leave Triple Espresso and Antiquarian viying for the million at Fair Grounds.
Triple Espresso (PP1 in the Lousiana Derby) is Also Eligible in the Jeff Ruby and needs two scratches to get in there…
The Hall of Fame trainer is renown for having his Derby hopefuls peak or be near best form for April preps.
At any rate, both Stakes, with full fields, in principle appear to be very good betting races.
Nelson, you would think Pletcher is hoping from one opposing scratch in the Jack Ruby to tender the steak. lol. Are you going to Dubai this year? I’m thinking of flying to Sydney to catch the Golden Slipper Stakes this Saturday. Coolmoore will be having a party if either Storm Boy or Switzerland romp in.
Hi Davids… no Dubai trip for me this year.
Stormy Boy looked more than ready to roll in an exhibition gallop at Randwick 4 days ago…
Hope the heavy going does not affect the battle of the undefeated in the $5 million TAB Golden Slipper
Doesn’t look as though it’s going to stop raining in Sydney until the Sunday, might have to do a ‘rain check’ on going to Sydney then in more ways than one. It never stops raining in Sydney, a shame really would have been a fun day at Rosehill. Might be the last chance of attending a Rosehill meet, they’re trying to sell the racetrack to recoup foolish outlays.
If I were to ever work for a racehorse trainer, it would have to be Dale Roman’s.
He and his team seem to have so much fun and such a positive outlook.
He posted the cutest St Patrick’s Day greeting on FB.
So Happy St Patrick’s Day everyone!!!!
Romans?
Romans’
Is that better?
Linda, wasn’t trying to correct you. My question was this is trainer you wish to work for???
I know…was just being sarcastic. Yes, Dale Romans.
So you didn’t really mean what you said? You were trying to throw shade at Romans?Why so negative all the time, Betsy?
Big Daddy! He sure seems like a very nice man. I would love to see him land another Derby Runner like Dullahan. He did a great job with Dully.
Me too El K
He can be funny. I always remembered when he sent Keen Ice against American Pharoah in the Travers, he said he was glad the attendance had been limited because there would only be 50,000 people to boo him when his horse won. Everybody found the idea hilarious–until he did win. But I don’t recall any booing.
I consider Track Phantom the horse to beat in the Louisiana Derby, his natural speed should carry him into a nice trip—there longer the slower, so he should like it…..
I just went through a consensus of weather forecasts and the word is, sunny!! Let’s hope so. Good luck with Track Phantom, I’m hoping he provides enough speed to give Honor Marie a chance to hit the board. Chasing Freedom, I like, especially with Prat taking the mount.
Davids;
I like Chasing Freedom for exactly the same reason; hope he does well!
Good luck!
biggy312, a strong performance by Chasing Freedom is the ultimate goal with a win the icing of top. Would it be too much to hope for both? Ha ha
Davids I’m not seeing a lot of speed in there, but am rooting for Honor Marie, and intend to play a box with Track Phantom, the early leader and early trailer…
Matthew, I’m also rooting for Honor Marie and expect improvement over his Risen Star effort. I’m not surprised that Rafael Bejerano has been replaced, but giving the mount to Ben Curtis caught me off guard. Nevertheless, Curtis is familiar with the FG surface and hopefully he was able to work Honor Marie in the a.m.
Matthew, I’m wondering if the wide post Track Phantom has may cause his jockey to go a little faster to get the lead early while allowing others to increase pressure on Track Phantom throughout. Mind you, anything may happen at the start.
Davids I love the outside draw! He can only be bumped/cut off by one horse….and there’s a long way for him to secure his position— had he drawn inside he would have been sent hard —he drew very will, for HIM! He is the horse to beat —the most likely exacta finisher, in my opinion…..
Matthew, I always fear a wide post for the favorites, or the speed in a race, because the inside runners try to fan them wider on the first turn. Track Phantom may be lucky it’s in the lap of the gods. Wait and see, and hope. Ha ha
Endlessly, winner of the El Camino Real Derby, has been flying under the radar, but no more. He’s listed as the favorite in the Jeff Ruby Steaks, at 5/2. I’m hoping Otello, at 10-1 earns enough points to put him in the Derby starting gate. He’s another colt that have a $40.00 win wager on in Pool 3, at 69-1.
A full field of 14 horses are entered in the JR Steaks.
Safe trips to all.
I’m excited to hear this news. Endlessly impressed me in the El Camino, and I’d love to see him do well in the Jeff Ruby.
I’m with you on Otello, Bill. I also bet him in Pool #3. I believe it’s @ odds of 59-l. Otello should do well on the Tapeta track as he has a good deal of turf breeding. Good luck to us!
Currently, Endlessly is listed at 62-1, in Futures Pool 5. In the event he should win the Jeff Ruby Steaks, (5/2 on the opening odds), you’ll never see those 62-1 odds again. Get those odds while you can folks.
Bill:
Endlessly is currently 300-1 ay Circa; was 500-1 a few days ago. I have small position at both prices. He definitely will be much lower if he does well in the Ruby.
Best of luck to you!
Good luck to you as well, biggy312.
RE: Louisiana Derby, post positions and opening odds.
1) Triple Espresso, 20-1
2) Hall of Fame, 8-1
3) Antiquarian, 12-1
4) Agate Road, 8-1
5) Catching Freedom, 4-1
6) Awesome Ruta, 30-1
7) Honor Marie, 8-1
8) Next Level, 30-1
9) Real Men Violin, 20-1
10) Common Defense, 6-1
11) Tuscan Gold, 8-1
12) Track Freedom, 3-1
Was # 12 suppose to be Track Phantom?
You’re right, Downthestretch, my bad.
Track Phantom is the horse they’ll have to catch in the La. Derby.
Starting from post 12 and going 1 3/16 m, yes, Track Phantom will be caught..
That remains to be seen.
Dismiss Track Phantom at your own peril.
The Louisiana Derby shapes up as a very betable race, Bill. I give eight horses a chance for the win. BTW, I just placed a wager in Futures Pool #5 on Tuscan Gold (currently @ 71-1). Chad Brown knows something.
Bill, thanks for posting this. Happy to see Real Men Violin is entered. I’m hoping Honor Marie runs a big race, and would love to see Catching Freedom and Tuscan Gold right there in the mix. I haven’t overlooked Track Phantom, either — I expect he will hold on and finish in the top four.
Ms. B, we are of like minds. I’m boxing Honor Marie, Catching Freedom and Tuscan Gold for the exacta.
You’re welcome Ms Blacktype.
I’m hoping Real Men Violin earns enough points to put him in the KD starting gate. I’ve got a $40.00 win wager on him in my Pool 3 Futures bets, at 123-1.
How about boxing RMV, Track Phantom, Catching Freedom and Honor Marie in a $2.00 superfecta wager. That might work. 🙂
Good luck, Ms Blacktype.
As an off topic headline just read that Roberto Duran ‘was receiving medical care for a heart problem’ in Panama City, Panama. I hope he wins this fight as well…always one my favorite boxers of all time and argumentatively the greatest boxer of all time-pound for pound, that is.
Duran, from ‘Manos de Piedra’ to ‘No Mas’ was a champion in four weight classes…still remember him beating the you know what out of Ken Buchanan at Madison Square Garden in 1972 even well after the final bell in round 13 and then beating Sugar Ray Leonard decisively in their first fight to which Leanard’s wife fainted after the 8th round because of the beating Sugar Ray was taking to which Joe Frazier said that Duran reminded him of Charles Manson.
John, I remember Roberto Duran.
Years ago I followed boxing. My Uncle was a big boxing fan. He is the one who got me interested.
Prayers for a full recovery and healing.
Viva Duran !!! Hoping for the best for him !!!
Steve,
Thanks again for this weeks analysis. Not sure if we learned alot from Tampa Bay Derby but not a big fan of any those horses for the Derby that came out of this race. The Derby will not be run (slow early fractions) as this race was run. Thanks to my Guardian Racing Angel, I did not lose any money on the race due to it being declared a non betting race.
In the coming weeks there are 2 particular horses I am really anxious to see their next race and that would be Mystik Dan and Deterministic. My interest is to see if their recent dominating wins were due to them being that good or did pedigree play a part due to that they both won on sloppy tracks. First, Mystik Dan his lightening finish on the the sloppy track was stunning. In looking at his pedigree it does have some mud loving background but is that the difference in that race ??? Maybe, but then I went back to his previous race … The Smarty Jones, which was a dry track and in that race he raced near the front almost the entire race when they turned for home he was racing near the middle of the track and a little after the turn the jockey was able to put him on the rail and still running strong but not enough to fend off the winner and a trio of other horses. In the Southwest a different racing tactic was employed were he was basically at midpack thru the race near the rail and when they turned for home an opening opened up and the jock took him home for the win. Now did he win look so stunning because he was on the best part of the track? Perhaps, or did a mud loving pedigree play a part. Probably a little of that too, But did a change of racing tactic of coming from off the pace play the biggest part . I am leaning toward the latter. That is why I am really anxious to see how he is ridden and see if he can repeat like he did the the Southwest. He could be lightening in the bottle. I was a big fan his daddy Goldencents
Next, with Deterministic. Now this horse has now only 2 races under his belt is the real mystery horse in this years Derby contenders. He wins his first race as a 2 year old on a dry track at 7 furlongs at a time of 124+ not exactly ” smokin” but maybe not bad for a 2 year old though. Then is out with a injury after that win and then comes back in the Gotham his first race as a 3 year old in a driving rain storm wins convincingly over what I originally thought was a decent field. I don’t think 1/2 of the horses in that race grabbed the track and never got into the race. The 2 horse that were leading the race from the beginning , Maximus Meridius and El Grande O, were running comfortably on the lead and Just in Touch just to the outside of them until the turn before the stretch were he dropped back behind them and Deterministic came up next to him. At the top of the stretch 2 frontrunners took off toward the finish line with El Grande O soon looking like the stronger of the two and Deterministic splitting between them running stride for stride but at that point El Grande O looking like he would win it. Just in Touch looked like he was just lumbering along l Maximus Meridius started tiring and was backing up with Deterministic passing him up, but then El Grande O all of suddenedly started shortening stride and Deterministic passed him up while Just in Touch finally found his stride and passed the tiring horses. Like I said previously Deterministic finished looked better than it really was. Deterministic pedigree is oozing with mud loving horses (especially on momma side ) how much did that play a part of it??? …..Probably a big part but then again he may show the same determination as he did in the Gotham on a dry track. That is the mystery and that is my big interest in his next race. If he does well he could be something special !!! We know one thing both horses love the rain !!!
i have said it before but is Todd Pletcher missing an opportunity by not sending Fierceness to the west coast? With Nysos now out of the SA derby competition looks a little easier.there. ‘
Nice to hear finally Arabian Knight is back in training. Baffert said he just wanted to give him some time off after the BCC. You can read what you want to in that. I would assume he will point him for the Met Mile.
The other good story is that Idiomatic is also back in training. I hope she can stay healthy and has another big year.
That’s it… To all a Great Weekend !!!
Hey Downthestretch
Deterministic is getting a lot of play in KD Futures Pool 5, currently, he’s listed at 12-1. That’s a huge drop from 107-1, his closing odds in Pool 3.
The following six horses are getting most of the play in Pool 5:
Sierra Leone, 8-1
Dornoch, 10-1
Deterministic, 12-1
Timberlake, 12-1
Fierceness, 13-1
Hades, 14-1
Hopefully, Deterministic continues to improve moving forward on the Derby trail. Per Christophe Clement, he’ll have a work this weekend, after which, a decision could be made on his next start.
If I were betting the Derby ( I am not … boycotting Churchill Downs) I would take a flier on him just for the off track factor. I hope he does well in his next race.. he doesn’t have to win just run well at the end.
Bill, share your view on Deterministic. Maybe something special.
Hi Mike
Hopefully, in his next start, he’ll prove that he is indeed, “something special”.
Over the past three years, I placed Futures bets on horses that I liked early on, but unfortunately, I didn’t hit.
2023, Hit Show finished 5th
2022, Simplification finished 4th, which provided a huge superfecta payout, (321K) no I didn’t hit the super.
2021, Rock Your World, finished 17th, (went off as the 2nd choice), didn’t break well.
This year, Deterministic could be my best shot at making some big money on my Futures bets, at 107-1.
He checks a lot of boxes, IMO.
Love all horses,from claimers to Derby winners. However,thinking possibly real deal.
Not Derby related but Kabirkhan is training lights out in preparation for the Dubai World Cup and he is fast.
That is good to hear! I’m looking forward to seeing him run and hope he does his old man proud.
Me too!
I am watching to see what Tuscan Sky does because I am hopeful for him. Sierra Leone does look to be the most reasonable favorite up to this point. But, I really like Mystik Dan! His Southwest performance was my Most favorite Derby prep thus far. But I still wonder if Goldencents is capable of being the Sire of a Kentucky Derby winner. I also would love for Forever Young to be the One because his bloodlines trace back to Sunday Silence! The only other horse I had hope for was Dornoch and more because of the fact that he is s full brother to Derby winner Mage and the story surrounding his Dam would be so wonderful if he were to pull off the Derby win!
Hi Steve. Any inside info on Born Noble ? Looks like he missed another work today.
Thanks JC
He’s going to be out for a while.
uggh ! Thanks Steve
Camp says he missed a work weeks ago with minor issue, is Pletcher shooting for a one time in to Derby with him, with basically no battles ? Lightly Raced … makes one think … is there anything even wrong with him …
There IS a dirt stakes for 3YOs this weekend after all. The 6-furlong Hutcheson Stakes at Gulfstream has attracted such talented horses at Group 2 Norfolk Stakes (Royal Ascot) winner Valiant Force, who has been transferred to a trainer in the U.S., as well as stakes winners Ship to Shore and Patriot Spirit, plus Beeline, who impressed in his Feb. 10 debut for Riley Mott. The Hutcheson — a key Derby prep back in the good old days — goes off at 2:08 as race 3.
PS: Cornishman is 8 to 5 to break his maiden at Fair Grounds in the 8th race tomorrow (post time, 5:15 p.m.)
Yes, Ms Blacktype, we do have an interesting 3 year old race. The Hutcheson Stakes used to be a notable prep to the Kentucky Derby but alas, no more. Nonetheless, Valiant Force’s debut on dirt is of some interest. They’ve been ‘toing and froing’ all year whether to start off on turf or dirt or dirt or turf. Ha ha Hopefully, he performs well here.
Don’t forget Arthur’s Ride returns in Race 10 at Gulfstream Park as well but I wouldn’t expect too much here. Mott lets them run into form on the track rather than having them to win on return from a lengthy layoff. Wish him well.
Arthur’s Ride! I had forgotten about him. Sadly, so many of these young, promising horses race a few times and never achieve their potential. I hope Arthur’s Ride is different.
Arthur’s Ride came back as good, or even better, as when he left. Bill Mott is a great trainer.
Arthur’s Ride came back in impressive style. He looked magnificent in winning as much the best. He’s been off for some 13 mos. yet, Bill Mott had him tuned up and ready for a big effort. Patience pays off as the Master has shown us time and time again. Without going over the top, Arthur’s Ride did remind me a bit of Ghostzapper today. What a thrill.
Yes, Dewey, Arthur’s Ride was impressive today, in the parade his confidence was up. There aren’t that many trainers who give you the confidence that Bill Mott does. Fingers crossed a stakes win will be just around the corner.
Could what appear to have been a minor setback to one of Wayne Lukas’ potential KD starters result in a KD winner?
Trainer Lukas’ policy of subjecting his KD prospects to a litany of starts with short recovery times between, has made the veteran trainer referred to as The Butcher in some places. Just Steel made his 10th start in the Rebel on February 22nd, where he finished 7th by 10L. It was the same month in which he made his 9th start.
It appears the Arrogate colt SEIZE THE GREY was on course to make just as many starts as Just Steel. But in his 6th start in an AOC at Keeneland, he finished 3rd by 10 1/2L as the heavy favorite who was exiting a 4th place finish in the G3, Iroquois. His poor performance led to a 4-month absence.
Upon his return he was the determined winner of an 8 1/2F OAC at OK Park. The highly regarded Imperial Gun finished 5 3/4L behind. What occurred before and after Seize the Grey’s win is noteworthy.
Eight before the AOC the colt breezed 5F in 1:00.60. His return to the work tab after his AOC win was 8 days as well. He breezed a fast 5F in 59.90. His race was 8 days between his 8-day breezes. No ordinary colt exits a tough 8 1/2F race and 8 days later breeze 5F in 59 plus and followed up 8 days later with another 5F breeze.
It appears that in the 4 months that the colt would have been subject to possibly 4 starts, he improved immensely. His pedigree suggest he will relish 10F and it is therefore puzzling why his first 3 start were as follows:
6F – 8th by 171/4L; finishing 13L ahead was the #15 ranked Liberal Arts in 2nd.
6 1/2F – Same month -1st by 1 3/4L; runner-up the #7th ranked Dornoch.
51/2F – 20 days later -close from Longway last to finish 3rd by 21/2L
He was stretched out in his 4th start in the 8 1/2F Iroquois where he finished 4th by 2L. Of note, Liberal Arts that finished 13L ahead of him on his debut was only 1/4L in front in the Iroquois.
Arrogate the sire of SEIZE THE GREY needs no introduction. His dam Sire Smart Strike is dam sire of 2 KD winners. Interestingly, both KD winners like Seize the Grey were sired by a Mr. Prospector line stallion, but none with the achievements of Arrogate.
Seize the Grey 2nd and 3rd dams were sired by BCC winer Wild Again and Private Account who was a son of Damascus out of a Buckpasser mare. The stamina influence in the colt’s pedigree suggests he should be competitive over 10F.
His next start in one of the 100 points KD prep will certainly be interesting. His ML in KDF Pool #5, is 90/1. I certainly want a piece of that.
Hey Counter Point
Seize the Grey is currently 10-1 in KD Futures Pool 5. Evidently, there are many others that share your take on Seize the Grey.
Counter Point, thanks for your comments. Lukas races some of them into the ground. Case in
point: Mr Z, among many others. His attempt of grabbing a last shred of glory is sad!
With today’s opening of the Oaks & Derby Future Wagers, does anyone have any info on Just F Y I who scratched out of her last start with a “fever”? Is she working again? I can’t find anything.
Flavien Prat has been named to ride Timberlake in the Arkansas Derby.
Prat wins a lot of gr1s..
I haven’t seen him riding much for Cox ..
Cox also named him on Catching Freedom in the Louisiana Derby
Well that’s interesting ….Jeff Ruby Steaks has 103 noms …..
Steve, that’s good news for Catching Freedom, in most of his previous races the colt has wound up being in problematic circumstances. Prat places his mounts to give them every chance.
Could be a sign that Florent Geroux will be sticking with Just a Touch.
Looks that way.
Also, a sign that Luis Saez has opted to stick with Dornoch?
Happy to read that Junior Alvarado has won the 2024 George Woolf Award!
So deserving! Congratulations
Yes, an excellent jockey that is always educating his mount.
Over the last 5 years the KD has written a part of its history that couldn’t have been conceived by the best script writers in Hollywood. See Below:
2023 – Mage 15/1 – No Derby Prep win; sole win- MSW
2022 – Rich Strike 80/1 – No Derby Prep win; sole win- MC
2021 – Medina Spirit 12/1 – Disqualified; Trainer banned for 2years.
2020 – Authentic 9/1 – Tiz The law hijacked (karma)
2019 – Maximum Security – Disqualified; Tainer in Prison; Promoted winner Country House No Derby Prep win; sole win- MSW
What exactly does 2024 have in store for us?
Under the existing qualification system, a maiden is unlikely to win the KD in the modern era. But it’s not outside the realm. In the last 5 year a promoted winner and two who passed the post first had only a MSW victory but had accumulated enough points in top 3 finishes in KD preps.
A Triple Crown winner emerging as a KD winning sire. Justify – Just A Touch (40 years since SWALE)
Will Wayne Lukas eclipse Art Sherman as the oldest trainer to win the KD? SEIZE THE GREY
Is there another Winning Colors lurking somewhere?
Will Godolphin’s long quest for the elusive KD winner come to an end in 2024? Nash/Encino/ Cornishman
Will there be a long overdue million-dollar yearling emerge as winner? Sierra Leone, Conquest Warrior, HALL OF FAME
Will there be a foreign invader that can put to the sword the American base entrants? Forever Young/Ramjet?
The field that is likely to be assembled for KD 150, has left me thinking that the fancied entrants might just find one better on the day. Thus, continuing the drought for favorites.
Given what has unfolded in the last 5 years. We are forced to abandon traditional methodologies and broaden our horizon to identify the likely 2024 KD winner.
Interesting post.
Let’s just hope that we don’t get a Tote-crash. On Derby Day, it could take months to sort out.
Interesting stats on the KD. It might be called a butcher race; one time winners that only win the KD rest of their careers, sad and pathetic!!
If anyone is looking to watch something fantastical next Friday night/Saturday morning, USA time, you should catch the Golden Slipper Stakes being run at Rosehill. The 5 million (Aus) ‘Slipper’ is the richest race for 2 year olds the world over and the first leg of the Australian Triple Crown for that age group.
It appears to be a battle Royal – Coolmoore colt Vs Coolmore colt – both undefeated. Storm Boy is to be challenged by Switzerland. Ryan Moore is flying down to Rosehill to ride Storm Boy while Switzerland will be ridden by James McDonald. Gai Waterhouse/Adrian Bott’s Storm Boy, the wonder from down under, will face up against Chris Waller’s Switzerland. Waller of Winx fame.
Don’t miss it. DRF will no doubt provide the times on the East and West coast running time. Who said there is a lull in racing.
Noted.
Race track update:
Stronach Group has entered an agreement to donate Pimlico Racetrack to the state of Maryland.
The Chicago Bears will not be building a new stadium on the site of the Arlington Racetrack that was razed.
On a sad note, Hall of Fame jockey Walter Blum has died at the age of 89. He was one of a select group of jockeys whose names I knew as a child. His achievements on the racetrack include winning the Belmont on Pass Catcher, denying Canonero the Triple Crown, in 1971; nosing Kelso with Gun Bow in the 1964 Woodward Stakes; and defeating Buckpasser with the filly Priceless Gem in the Futurity (back when that was a major race). Blum, who spent many years as a racing official, also won the George Wolfe award.
May he rest in peace. He was an excellent jockey. Myself living in the west loved it when eastern jockeys came out west to Hollywood Park & Santa Anita. I believe he also rode the great mare Affectionately. He was a tall jockey as well.
I remember that spill he had at Santa Anita way back when, pretty horrific.
Condolences to his family and loved ones.
Thank you for sharing.
I remember Walter Blum very well, but I had forgotten some of his accomplishments which you mentioned. He was indeed a credit to racing.
Vlahos, the 98 first time Beyer wonder, has been acquired by Ty Leatherman and Todd Cady and transferred to trainer Doug O’Neill. Might we see him in the Santa Anita Derby? Weirder things have happened.
I am always intrigued by May Foals. When they are good their older peers are usually in trouble.
From a pedigree perspective and should this colt be placed on the KD Trai. I do not recall ever seeing a KD prospect with a sire (Kantharos) and dam sire (Run Away and Hide) with abbreviated and undefeated 3 race careers.
In both Kantharos and Run Away and Hide undefeated 3 race careers. Neither contested a race beyond 6 1/2F. A sprinting sire and dam sire a Kentucky Derby winner doesn’t make.
It would be irresponsible to not be reminded that in Thoroughbred Racing speed is king. A big heart and a will to win usurps stamina.
I’m just noting him as a prospect for a major west coast stakes at this point, but the ownership/trainer switch could be a sign of Derby fever.
At first glance, I don’t see a lot of stamina influence in Vlahos’ pedigree. He could be a sprinter/middle distance type, time will tell.
He’s certainly one to watch moving forward.
Good luck, Ms Blacktype.
What is Alpha Horse?
Overall, Alpha Horse is a term used to describe a racehorse that is considered to be the best of its class. It is an important term in the racing world and is often used to determine which horse will receive the most accolades and recognition.
Alpha Horses have the reputation for being tough, resilient and competitive. They have a strong will to win and are known to give everything that have to win a race.
Characteristics of an Alpha Horse are as follows:
1) Highly intelligent – Alpha Horses are highly intelligent, able to learn quickly and retain information for a long period of time.
2) Strong work ethic – Alpha Horses have a strong work ethic, striving to please their handlers and master.
3) Fearless – Alpha Horses are fearless and courageous, not easily deterred by difficult tasks.
4) Good temperament – Alpha Horses have an even temper and are generally calm and collected.
5) Versatility – Alpha Horses have the ability to excel in a variety of disciplines and activities.
6) Athleticism – Alpha Horses are athletic and agile, able to quickly and gracefully move in any direction.
7) Strong bond with handler – Alpha Horses form a strong bond with their handler, trusting and responding to their commands.
From my perspective, Deterministic checks all seven characteristics of an Alpha Horse.
As a reference, please refer to Steve Haskin’s description of Deterministic in his Week 7, and Week 8 Derby Rankings.
In addition, please refer to Sean Collin’s interview with Anne Archer Hinkle (Director of Operations at Hinkle Farms), where in part, she stated the following in reference to Deterministic: “The way he walked and carried himself, his demeanor – so smart. He was just a superstar.”
Recent quote from C. Steven Duncker, (part owner of Deterministic), “I’ve owned horses for 47 years, and I’ve never been in this position. He’s not 17 hands but he moves so well.”
Needless to say, I’m eagerly awaiting Determinist’s next start on the Derby trail, which remains undecided. Stay tuned.
Below are my KDFP #4 wagers
Deterministic -93/1
Domestic Product 80/1
Liberal Arts – 57/1
Resilience – 83/1
Deterministic the longest shot. I hope you are correct he is the Alpha Horse.
Good luck, Counter Point.
I certainly don’t claim to be an expert on the subject of “Alpha Horse”, but Deterministic tends to give the impression that he is indeed an Alpha Horse. I’m somewhat surprised that the breeders and/or owners have not used that terminology when discussing Deterministic’s demeanor. However, I remain convinced that he is an Alpha Horse. Just my opinion, Counter Point.
Bill, you have offered a very good description of the “alpha horse”.
I would only had that there are alpha males and females in all horse breeds, even in the wild horse herds.
Also that if the dam is an alpha mare then usually her foals will be alpha colts and/or alpha fillies.
Great comment, thank you for posting it.
You’re welcome, Lynda.
Yes, I was aware there are Alpha Mares, as well.
Tiznow is an alpha ….Track Phantom is an alpha …
Tiznow, probably. Track Phantom, I would question. What leads you to believe that Track Phantom is an Alpha Horse?
The Chosen Vron…small chestnut with 15 wins and 1 second….that’s a racetrack alpha …and Track Phantom —sets out every race to take the race to them, follow the leader style…..
Steve, I have a question that is kind of off topic but a little relevant to the discussion. To what extent are analysts and handicappers using AI for predictions in races? There are so many tools out there for people to use, I am just wondering to what extent AI is being used. I would suppose a lot, but I really have no idea. Your thoughts (and others’ thoughts as well)?
I dont know of any who do or even how you use it. So I can help you at all.
Long ago, the topmost (highest rated)software for handicapping was called Allway’s, they have been bought by Bris. They used to advertise that their software used AI. But I don’t think its the AI you are referring to.
I really don’t think anyone is using the modern AI.
Sally I have not read or heard that anyone is using AI.
Equinedge AI might be a place to start. Their real time data generates powerful metrics analyzes horse performance data, track conditions, jockey / trainer statistics and a horse’s genetic strength.
Sally, if you search under ChatGPT and horse racing you will get a slew of various people who have used ChatGPT for betting purposes. I have a license for ChatGPT and used it once with mixed success. I entered in the information from a race guide, for a race card, from the internet. One winner, some placings, but mostly no results. Ha ha
Mind you, ChatGPT is marvelous in writing essays etc.
I always view the likely starter in the Kentucky Derby from a historical perspective. I use history to eliminate some from the top spot as the rise in the rankings. Good, bad or indifferent that’s how I roll.
ELIMINATION FROM THE TOP SPOT
TIMBERLAKE – RANKED #2
Nice colt with tons of potential. However. his historic negative will be hard to overcome. His sire Into Mischief is the only one in KD history to sire back to back winners albeit via a disqualification. What the prospect of Into Mischief being the sire of another KD winner two years later. This will not occur.
FIERCENESS – RANKED #3
No BCJ winner from the barn of Todd Pletcher has faced the KD starter. Only 2 BCJ winners have returned to win the KD. Both were impressive 3YO debut winners. Street Sense set a NTR in the Tampa Bay Derby. Nyquist won the 7F San Vincenti in a wickedly a fast 1:20.71. Fierceness stumbled home 3rd in the 2nd slowest Holy Bull over the distance of 8.5F
DORNOCH
Full siblings do not win major races like the Kentucky Derby. It appears history forbids this occurrence. The subject colt was conceived in its dam’s foaling heat. The mare was therefore nursing a foal and carrying a fetus simultaneously. These types of foals rarely win big G1 races.
The connections for No More Time has acquired a colt by Not This Time out of Pammy Whammy (War Front) at the Ocala sale for $1.5 million. The colt will be trained by Jose D’Angelo who also trains No More Time. The colt, as yet unamed, is striking looking.
I learned a little more about Jose D’Angelo from the article. He has been training in the United States for 5 years. His Father is a champion trainer in Venezuela.
D’Angelo’s first success was Jesus’ Team who ran 2nd in the Pegasus, 2nd in Breeder’s Cup Mile and 3rd in the Preakness Stakes.
I do not think “inexperienced” describes Mr D’Angelo. Rather in my opinion, he is an up and coming 31 year old trainer whose connections have confidence in him and his abilities. I do not think the connections would place a 1.3 million dollar colt in his hands if they thought for one moment he could not do the job.
On two occasions on this forum I was somewhat chastised for having No More Time on my short list for this year’s Derby.
The heart and soul of Thoroughbred horse racing has always been the dream…the dream of having a horse running in the Kentucky Derby and a chance that horse could win.
We seem to have moved away from that in recent years. These days it seems to be all about the trainer. If a certain trainer does not have his trainees in the Derby then many refer to the crop of Derby contenders to be inferior or weak, lackluster.
I perceive such comments as being condescending, elitist and a failure to recognize that these unknown trainers including female trainers and their exercise riders, grooms and hot walkers work just as hard if not harder than the golden boys of racing do.
I fully realize that No More Time is the underdog in the Kentucky Derby. But you know what, I like underdogs.
A colt that was bypassed at auction out of a $5,000 broodmare by Not This Time, a breeding that cost 6,000 dollars thanks to the generosity of the Albaugh Family to the small time breeders in Iowa, purchased via private sale for $40,000 by newcomers to the sport and trained by an unknown trainer in Florida and accumulating enough points to run in the Kentucky Derby is living the dream. It is proof that the dream is still alive in the United States.
I am keeping No More Time on my little short list.
Provocative post. You go girl!
Thank you.
Lynda, as a fellow dreamer, I support your love of the underdog. I rarely pay attention to the price tag of a horse, but when one comes at a bargain basement price and targets a race like the Derby, it piques my interest. I also agree with your opinion of Jose D’Angelo. I was impressed with the job he did with Jesus’ Team but never had a ticket on him because I was scared off by his high odds (my bad). Jose D’Angelo will be a much sought after trainer in a few years when deep pocketed owners take notice of this horseman’s skills.
I assume that you still have Forever Young on your short list. He has his detractors, but I believe he has the “right stuff” to get the job done in the UAE Derby and earn his ticket to Louisville. For some reason, he has a piece of my heart (I’m in love with all descendants of Sunday Silence) and I’ll be rooting for him to be in the gate for the KD. Forever Young did not come cheap as his sale price was $720,000. However, to date, he has more than doubled his price tag with earnings of $1,469,000 with more big purses on the horizon.
If you take away dreams, then the sport of horseracing becomes a game of numbers, calculated race schedules with short careers and potential stars being shanghied to the breeding shed. Give me the underdog any day, for at least, they might stick around longer as we continue to cheer for them.
Love your posts Lynda. Thanks for sharing your news scoops and spirited opinions.
Yes, Forever Young, Deterministic and Honor Marie are still on my list.
I think there is still a place in this sport for dreamers like you and me.
As a very young girl I was a dreamer that I would be the first female jockey to win the Kentucky Derby.
Thank you for the kind words.
There’s a lot to love their with No More Time, Honor Marie, and Determistic. Regarding childhood dreams, I wanted to own AND train the first filly triple crown winner. That was truly a dream, because I rarely got the chance to be around horses in the first place. I did envision my farm — oceanfront, with a rolling meadow down to the sea. And this was decades before I ever visited Maine!
The meadow was high above the ocean, hence Maine.
A beautiful dream, Ms. B.
I, myself, am a Maniac. I now reside in Kentucky and while I love the Blue Grass, I do miss the salty air of my beloved Maine. My early days as a punter were spent at the now defunct Scarborough Downs. One of my memories of SD was that they always played the Johnny Mathis’ song, “Chances Are” on the PA system. So apropos, ha ha!
My dream was to be an owner of a Kentucky Derby winner.
What a wonderful dream!
I always enjoy watching videos of race horses being ridden on the beach and in the ocean in Autralia.
We should have hooked up years ago…you would breed and own the Thoroughbreds and I would be the jockey, LOL.
My dream in those days was to own a Kentucky Derby winner. Now I’m happy to settle for a Derby win by any horse that I really like, never mind who owns him.
On HADES:
“an undefeated horse who has looked last year’s champ in the eye and disposed of him”
“this horse simply does not want to stop running”
“he worked a quarter in :21 1/5, then galloped out in :32 2/5 and pulled up a half in :46 flat as a 2-year old”
“His gallop-outs in his races and in his works have been sensational; he just keeps going, and in his gallops he has his head down and neck arched and is really into the bit”
“In his most recent work, a sharp five furlongs in 1:00 1/5, he blew away his workmate and I loved seeing him gallop out a mile in 1:42.”
“In the Holy Bull, Domestic Product was closing, but watching it again it looked for a second like he was going to run by Hades, but the winner found another gear and actually opened up on him”
“He’s won going head and head on the lead and coming from sixth at the eighth pole, and the closer I look at him the more it’s possible he is that good, making him a legitimate Derby contender who can run as fast or as slow as he needs to. ”
” I just would like to see him corner a bit better turning for home and I look forward to his rematch with Fierceness to see just what we’re dealing with, and that goes for both horses.”
Me: After all the praises for him, he still needs to show that he can corner better turning for home and beat FIERCENESS again to get ranked higher. In the mean time, he does not get the respect he deserves, and the benefit of the doubt.
On FIERCENESS
“I am looking forward to seeing which Fierceness is going to show up in the Florida Derby or possibly the Blue Grass and if he can convince all those who have given up on him and consider him too unreliable that he does possess the fortitude and consistency you expect from a champion.”
Me: Even if he wins the Florida Derby or the Blue Grass, he can’t prove he does possess the consistency you expect from a champion. On the contrary, that will buttress his inconsistency.
On DOMESTIC PRODUCT
“So what do we make of the Tampa Derby? Basically not too much, and that is not the fault of Domestic Product, who came home in a crazy :22 4/5 final quarter and final sixteenth in just under :06 seconds to beat a tough horse with a home court advantage and who benefited from a pace that was a ridiculous 21 to 27 lengths slower than the Challenger Stakes for older horses earlier on the card.”
Me: Quarter cumulative times are 25.25, 51.14, 1:16.21, 1:39.36, 1:45.47 (from BloodHorse race replay). That means quarter times are 25.25, 25.89, 25.07, 23.15, 6.11. So, the fourth quarter was run in 23 and not 22 4/5, while the final sixteenth was run in 6 and not under 6 seconds.
Hades fits nicely into my profile of a KD winner.
He was produced from a small book 71 mares bred by his sire Awesome Slew in 2020, of which he is one of 45 live foals. Many of the top stallions are grossly overbred each year. Quantity always negatively impacts quality.
His dam was unraced. Lightly and unraced mares are amongst the best producers of champions. I have a particular preference for unraced mare.
Hades should not be treated lightly.
FIERCENESS:
I compiled a list of the 9 longshot BCJ winners. Only Street Sense was a next out winner. His victory required a NTR and a NS. The fact that Fierceness was not a next out win is consistent with the history and/or pattern of longshot BCJ winners. Fierceness was unable to defy history.
A colt the is defeated by 20L and then returns to win by 61/2 records a form reversal of 26 1/2L. That is grossly usual. And I dear say, unsustainable. The colt is not as good as his BCJ effort suggests and this will be proven going forwards.
DOMESTIC PRODUCT
Off a 12 3/4L defeat on debut over 6F. The subject colt returned in a 9F MSW and won by 4 1/2L in 1:50.97. His winning time was good enough to win 6 of the last 10 Remsen. This colt is very good but doesn’t get the credit he deserves,
Factoring in his come home times are you factoring in he was not in front until the final jump?
Reading the overview for Fierceness reflects the true brilliance of Steve Haskin’s writing skills. His search for answers for the colt’s up and down pattern is not as elusive as it appears. Some insights have been provided under a pattern and practice submission. However, Fierceness’ BCJ win on Future Stars Day has apparently left the great writer spellbound.
Who can Fierceness be compared to? Who is Bayern? Excellent choice! He was defeated by 20L in the G1 Travers just like Fierceness’ defeat by 20L in the G1 Champagne. Next out Bayern set a NTR in the PA Derby whilst destroying California Chrome and company. I doubt many fully understand the magnitude of Bayern’s win.
Belmont Park’s 9F races are around 1turn. As a result, some of the fastest 9F times are recorded at that venue. The 9F Peter pan is viewed as prep for the Belmont Stakes. The track record for the 3YO stakes is 1:46.35. Bayern won a 2turn 9F in 1:46.96.
The mile split in the PA Derby which involved 2turns was 1:34 2/5. The speed record for the 1Turn Champagne is 1:34.20 &1:34.40 set by Devil’s Bag and Seattle Slew.
The AK Derby is a 2turn 9F race. The TR for that stake is 1:46.80 set by Althea in 1984. Since then, the AK Derby has been won in 1:47.60 twice (Olympio/Demons Begone). All other winning times were 1:48 and slower.
Consider the following. Fierceness was more impressive than Uncle Mo who destroyed his opponents Champagne field and replicated the act in the BCJ.
Bayern was unable to replicate his PA Deby performance after his equally surprising BCC win. It is left to be seen what type of performance Fierceness will deliver in the FL Derby. I am not optimistic it will meet the expectation of the colt’s fan base.
The reasons for such dramatic form reversals are unknown. What is known is that such form reversals are grossly usual and in most instances are unsustainable.
“Bayern was unable to replicate his PA Derby after his equally surprising Classic win?”….wasn’t his Classic win ample replicating???…You want to toss Fierceness because of his two duds? He paid $35 for his Breeders Cup win….the old “his best is best” angle …how do you just toss him?….
Rather than keep repeating the same thing ad nauseam I will turn it over to Deacon and strongly suggest people heed his words “You are only adding to the fire. It is not necessary to keep bringing up Bafferts name. All it is going to do is spark more disagreements & arguments among Steve’s followers.”
In other words there is no reason to keep having theads on a trainer who has no relevance to this year’s Derby. Whatever you feel about Baffert its been said a million times and he will remain a very polarizing figure. You can mention Baffert if it pertains to the Derby and who he is sending where on the Derby trail, but your personal feelings about him have no place or importance on here. I really dont want to keep going over this.
Noted.
Counterpoint: What is to gain by being repetitive about Baffert or as my dad used to say “beating a dead horse” The bloggers here are very knowledgeable & experienced. I also believe that myself being older, that many of us are set in our ways.
It is not a good idea to pass dispersions on someone (trainer) especially since we do know the whole story.
I do not know what he did or didn’t do but i sure loved many of his horses. They include,
Siver Charm, Authentic, American Pharoah, Justify, Gamine, War Emblem, Indian Blessing, Real Quiet & my favorite Point Given.
He must be doing something right. There is always at least 3 sides to every story.
I personally believe that those in charge at Churchill Downs have a major issue with Baffert. The punishment here far exceedes the
crime, IMO.
All opinions should have fairness based at the core level. I don’t believe everything I read or hear & I am certainly not a band wagon jumper.
Lets just get along & stop the negatives, it serves no purpose. I love what many of these bloggers say & I value their input.
Steve tirelessly works hard to provide great stories for us to share. Everyone waits with bated breath for the Derby Rankings to come out.
I respect his hard work. Lets not cheapen his effort by being petty. No place hear for that.
Thanks Steve. I’ve seen other websites that have ceased because of the poisonous and venomous comments that seem to come from the same people, over and over again, on other websites albeit with the same names consisting with the same sickening, repetitively and boringly hated comments that have come over to this site.
To some we get it-you don’t like this person. Now offer something new like if the winner will come from another country like Japan?
Well said John, there are hardly any other websites left that have a comments section. Ours is very tame compared to the others, we have a great group, but sometimes you have to nip things in the bud.
Well said Steve, bravo……..
First time starter Vlahos recorded a whopping 98 Beyer figure breaking his maiden at Santa Anita on Saturday. I saw the race and wasn’t that impressed, but he fooled me.
He may be too late for the Derby, but he certainly would make an interesting prospect for the Santa Anita Derby or further on down the road.
That race had several nice looking maidens …Vlahos set torrid fractions then kept on going …..a $40k son of Kantharos….
I try not to be bullish on a particular KD prospect. However, I find myself bullish on the #1 ranked Sierra Leone. This is unusual for me as he will likely leave gates at single digit odds and I a longshot hunter. Further favorites have bitten the dust over the last 5 years. But one can only hope that even in a year in which the KD is considered open. The 5 years reign of non-favorite winners will come to an end. Just as it did for favorites in 2019.
IT’S CHAD’S TIME
In November 2007, Brown went out on his own with only ten horses in his stable, five provided by Ken and Sarah Ramsey and the other five by Gary and Mary West. He won with his second starter. By 2019 he secured his 4th consecutive Outstanding Trainer Eclipse award.
The 4 times Eclipse award winning trainer has made the most with his 5 KD starters to date. See Below:
2013 – Normandy Invasion 4th by 3 1/2L (Contested 3 KD 3YO Preps finished 2nd, 5th, 2nd)
2017 – Practical Joke 5th by 9 1/2L (Contested two 3YO KD Preps Finished 2nd, 2nd)
2018 – Good Magic 2nd by 2 1/2L (Contested two 3YO KD Preps finished 1st, 3rd)
2021 – Highly Motivated 10th by 11L Contested two 3YO KD Preps finished 2nd, 3rd)
2022 – Zandon 3rd 1 1/2L (Contested two 3YO KD Preps finished 1st, 3rd)
With Sierra Leone Chad Brown is sticking with the blueprint that yielded his best KD results i.e., 2 preps with the final being the Blue Grass. Both Good Magic and Zandon won the Blue Grass in 1:50plus.
In Sierra Leone’s 2nd place finish by a NS in the Remsen. He achieved the time of 1:50.30 as a 2YO. If he had kept a straight course and not piloted 7W on the home turn, he could have recorded a sub 1:50 time. Zandon was the 3rd place finisher in the 2022 KD. He also finished 2nd in the Remsen, completed in 1:53.61 on a fast track.
All indications are that Sierra Leone is faster than both Good Magic and Zandon at a comparable phase of their careers. Trainer Brown might find himself in the unusual position of having the post time favorite for the KD. Given his results with the 2nd and 5th wagering choices in 2 KDs. The Bobby Frankel pupil seems poised to secure his first KD win.
In Derby Futures Pool 3, I placed $40.00 win wagers on several longshots that looked enticing to me. I mainly focused on colts that were impressive in their maiden performances and their respective pedigrees reflected speed, class and stamina, (in my view). A few are now considered “contenders” on the Derby trail, and a few are considered “pretenders”. The Futures Pool 5 opening odds have dropped significantly on my “contenders”, which are as follows.
Deterministic, 107-1 in Pool 3, vs 20-1 in Pool 5
Tuscan Sky, 88-1 in Pool 3, vs 30-1 in Pool 5
Resilience, 93-1, in Pool 3, vs 50-1 in Pool 5
Other colts that I wagered on in Pool 3 but are not listed in Pool 5.
Real Men Violin, 123-1
Imperial Gun, 80-1
Catching Freedom, 28-1 (Pool 5, 30-1)
Merit, 129-1, (probably off the Derby trail)
Otto the Conqueror, 91-1, (probably off the Derby trail)
Ari’s Magic, 104-1, (probably off the Derby trail)
In addition, I keyed each one of those on top, with all the others underneath in $2.00 exacta wagers.
At this point, Deterministic appears to be my best “contender” on the Derby trail. Hopefully, Tuscan Sky, Resilience, Real Men Violin, Catching Freedom and Imperial Gun make the KD starting gate. Fingers crossed.
Don’t give up on Real
Hey Craig
No, I won’t give up Real Men Violin, or any of the others.
Keep the faith my good man. On any given 1st Saturday in May any result is possible.
in 2005 Giacomo at 50/1 emerged the winer with Closing Argument finishing 2nd at 78/1.
Thanks for the encouragement, Counter Point.
So far, Deterministic has lived up to my expectations, and his connections are top notch. Hopefully, he remains healthy and makes the Derby starting gate. I’m convinced he’s an Alpha Male, similar to Nyquist, who was most certainly an Alpha Male. His street fighter demeanor that he displayed in his maiden and Gotham wins is something that should be beneficial in the 20 horse Derby field.
I’m very high on Tuscan Sky as well. He could be the best 3yr. old in the Pletcher barn. Time will tell.
Good luck with Just a Touch, Counter Point.
Like him as well, Bill. Also, Honor Marie and CW.
I have nothing but the highest regards for Deterministic’s trainer. He made a very provocative quote after Tonalist won the Belmont which still resonates. He is a man of the highest honor and based on his BOW and contribution to the trainer’s community, he is more than deserving of a KD win.
I rarely wager the KD Future Pool. But not only did I wager on a few of the betting interests that included Deterministic. I also placed a wager on Liama’s Map in the stallion pool. This was because I liked Bergen and Deterministic, progenies of the BC Dirt Mile winner.
Deterministic is a very serious colt with an explosive turn of foot. For your sake and mind, I hope he wins the KD as his Future pool price is very lucrative. Being locked into that price and seen his Gotham performance one has to be encouraged.
I have highlighted my reservations regarding the colt’s dam sire. He hasn’t been seen as a broodmare sire in many routers. Deterministic’s quick stride rate in the stretch means he hits the ground more often than a far striding horse with an equally quick turn over rate. But KD winer come in all forms and my reservation might just be unfounded.
A major plus for Deterministic has to be that he is from the Unbridled sire line which is the most successful extenso of the sire of sires, Mr. Prospector. Angel Of Empire was a representative of the Unbridled Dynasty in the 2023 KD. He came up short as the favorite. The winner carried the potent Mr. Prospector/Northern Dancer cross.
On the KD Trail there are 4 notables from Unbridled’s Dynasty i.e., Bergen, Deterministic, Liberal Arts and Capital Idea. Of the 4 Bergen and Liberal Arts carry the potent Mr. Prospector/Northern Dancer cross.
Counter Point, I also hold Cristophe Clement in the highest regard among trainers. Yet, I’m at a loss to recall his provocative quote after Tonalist’ Belmont. Could you refresh my memory?
Dewey, search for “Clement’s classic breakthrough” – Karen M Johnson July, 1 2014 on the Thoroughbred Racing
Commentary website.
Hey Davids, thanks so much for referring me to the Thoroughbred Racing Commentary website (I’ve added it to my racing folder). It is a virtual gold mine of interesting articles about racing and the horses and people who make it tick. The piece that Karen M. Johnson wrote on Christophe Clement in 2014 was fun to read. I learn a lot about him that I never knew before and it renewed my respect for him as a fine trainer and human being. Good stuff. Thanks!
Great to hear Dewey, can I recommend their Tony Morris “Tony Morris’s 100 Shapers of the Breed” articles. You won’t find a better resource on mainly European famous runners.
I’ll check it out. Thanks!
Good day, Counter Point.
All excellent points regarding Deterministic.
With respect to the Mr. Prospector/Northern Dancer cross, I would add Track Phantom, Dornoch, Hall of Fame and Otello.
Interesting background information on Just A touch. I knew nothing about the information shared but based on watching the Gotham several times,I ranked him at #2.
The colt is big for a May foal. I focused on the phase of Gotham when both Just A touch and Deterministic were just about even in the stretch. Deterministic quickly separated with a faster stride turnover rate. Just A touch has a much longer stride, and his turnover rate was somewhat flat until the last 50 meter it got faster.
I am of the opinion that Just A Touch has better stride mechanics for the KD than Deterministic. Just A Touch won on debut in a 6F MSW in which the 5F split was 57.96. He completed the race without much urging in 1:10.96. This suggests he possesses serious tactical which his TC sire and dam sire Tapit should provide the stamina to carry effectively over 10F.
I might be selling Deterministic short but his dam sire Speightstown is a cause for pause over 10F. For example, Tapit as a damsire was represented by 4 entrants in the 2023 KD i.e., Rocket Can(9th), Hit Show (5th), Disarm (4th) and Kingsbarns (14th). Speightstown was represented by zero.
Is the above comparison a significant decision-making factor? There have been KD winning dam sire out of the blue never to be seen again. Further, horses are known to outrun their pedigrees over certain distances. But all things considered, I am inclined to give both the speed and stamina edge to Just A touch.
I tend to agree with you on most points raised here but the sloppy track may have magnified some of the comparisons. Needless to say, Speightstown as dam sire is a concern but, then again, Clement is a very astute trainer. As well, it’s May, and not November, which enables some to compensate from what is lacking later down the road.
On a dry track, we would be given a closer perspective as well.
On HADES, “I want to rank him higher and I believe he should be ranked higher, but I just don’t know who to lower”/
Well, he beat FIERCENESS and DOMESTIC PRODUCT in the Holy Bull so he should be ranked higher than those two.
He is 3-3-0-0.
His winning time in the Holy Bull might be slow, but DP’s AND FIERCENESS’ times are slower.
His low ranking might be because he is a gelding and has no future in the breeding shed.
You have to remember that the Rankings is not always based on what happened as opposed to what you project to happen. These are preps and horses do improve the farther they go and that is often determined by running style, pedigree, and mechanics. Just because a horse beats another at 1 1/16 miles, especially in a paceless race, doesnt mean he is going to beat him at 1 1/4 miles. As I said I like Hades a lot and may be guilty of ranking him too low, and Fierceness too high and I certainly see him moving up in the next week or two. But I’m not so sure the Holy Bull was a legitimate race and that is what I am trying to figure out.
For those interested here is my research regarding the high priced colts on the Derby trail
There have been approximately 70 (I was counting in my head so give or take a couple) horses that ran in the Kentucky Derby that were sold at auction for what would be the equivalent of 500K+ in 2024 dollars. Basically we’re accounting for inflation at the time of sale as we go back in time.
In each Derby I combined these Blue Chip horses together as if they were a single entry and used their combined off odds to find the probability that one of them would wear the roses
Here is a year by year look at what their on-track odds would have been if they were a single entry along with their probability of winning as a group.
2003- (7-2) 17.5%
2004- (5-2) 26%
2005- (2-1) 28%
2006- (5-2) 23%
2007- (6-1) 12%
2008- (7-1) 10.5%
2009- (3-2) 30%
2010- (4-1) 16%
2011- (7-2) 17.5%
2012- (5-1) 14%
2013- (8-1) 9%
2014- (7-2) 18%
2015- (3-1) 21%
2016- (3-5) 47% ****Nyquist Won at odds of 2-1
2017- (7-2) 17.5%
2018- (1-2) 55% ***Justify Won at odds of 5-2
2019- (5-1) 14%
2021- (5-1) 13%
2022- (5-2) 24.5%
2023- (7-5) 37.5%
When each year’s probability is added together, you find that they should have won 4.51 of the past 20 Derby’s. Thats an expected strike rate of 22.5% (like a top trainer might fare), with an actual strike rate of 10%. They’re beautiful… We love them… and they are most likely underlays for betting purposes.from an historical perspective.
If anyone is further interested, I’ll post the entrants from each year that fit the bill sometime tomorrow.
Thanks for the interesting data, Jim.
You’re welcome David!
Just passing time during the down week. My family is off on vacation while I nurse a dislocated a patella… almost healed now.
Anyway, here is the year by year list of those who sold for 500K+ (2024 dollars)
2023- (439K)- Cyclone Mischief, Reincarnate, Kingsbarns, Tapit Trice, Verifying
2022- (419K)- Messier, Taiba, Tawny Port
2021- (412K) Midnight Bourbon, Rock Your World, Dynamic One
2019- (397K) Cutting Humor, Roadster
2018- (390K) Flameaway, Audible, Good Magic, Justify, Bolt D’Oro, Mendelssohn, Instilled Regard, Vino Rosso
2017- (384K+) Battle of Midway, J Boys Echo, Classic Empire, Tapwrit
2016- (384K+) Creator, Destin, Nyquist, Mohayman, Mor Spirit
2015- (378K+) Carpe Diem, Materiality, Mubtaahij
2014- (372K) Intense Holiday, Wicked Strong
2013- (365K) Overanalyze, Falling Sky, Will Take Charge
2012- (353K) Union Rags
2011- (345K) Stay Thirsty, Dialed In
2010- (349K) Lookin at Lucky, Dublin
2009- (336K) Hold Me Back, Regal Ransom, Dunkirk, Regal Ransom, Desert Party, Flying Private
2008- (326K) Eight Bells, Court Vision
2007- (316K) Zanjero, Cowtown Cat, Any Given Saturday
2006- (304K) Jazil, Steppenwolfer, Point Determined,AP Warrior
2005- (294K) Andromeda’s Hero, Sun King, Noble Causeway, Spanish Chestnut, Bandini, Going Wild
2004- (291K) Lion Heart, Read the Footnotes, Tapit
2003- (287K) Brancusi, Atwhatimtalkinbout, Offlee Wild, Scrimshaw
I missed Jaces Road last year and listed Regal Ransom twice.
Best of luck with the healing process, Jim. Must be extremely frustrating for you. Thanks again from posting the information it confirms the mental impression you have but without the evidence. Thank you.
You’re saying $439K in 2023 dollars is $500K this year? I doubt that very much.
I was going by the year of sale. So, 439K in 2021 would be equal to 500K today. It may be off by a little, but multiple internet sites agree. It seems pretty crazy to me too that the value of the dollar erodes so quickly, but thats what the web says so it must be true:)
Good Info, people do overplay the high-priced auctions.
But another way of looking at would be to put a value on the HomeBreds as some are very well bred, but they don’t have a price tag and people can’t talk about the price.
Then compare the two groups.
As I was doing this, I was thinking the same thing. I’m thinking of breaking them up into several groups including a less than 100k group. I’ll try to put together a couple more of these during the down week.
As far as overvaluing auction prices in our handicapping, I am the worlds worst! I am drawn to them like a bee to honey and it has cost me so many times. Last year, I finally just left them off. It was scary! With a whole year between Derby’s I hate to get knocked out by horses at the top of my list. I still lost, but I at least had to find a new way to lose 🙂
Keeneland, in the 90s, used to proudly state that of their September yearlings, on average, 7% would achieve Grade 1 success, 17% achieved Graded stakes success, and 30% achieved black type success. I was not surprised they stopped this promotion for obvious reasons. Mind you, had the percentages improved they no doubt would have keep providing the information.
Jim’s smart and unique research clinches it. Sierra Leone, the 2.3 million dollar Chad Brown trainee gotta be a toss.
Thanks Counter, but I think it might have been a posting of yours that got me thinking about how often I’ve put too much weight on auction prices as a handicapping variable. There was a time that I handicapped the Derby without any idea what the auction prices were and I was a much greater danger to the pools when I watched taped replays over and over as I clipped the Derby Prep charts out of the Courier Journal.
Everybody is different, but I think published speed figs and auction prices really hurt my Derby handicapping.
All of that said, it’s a small sample size and I would never want to get anybody off of a horse that they like. I just enjoy the research.
I’ve come out, for breakfast at Clockers Corner…I’ve seen Bob’s training duels….mostly getting good horses ready to battle good horses, Shirreffs did it with Express Train and his big black SA Derby winner (name starts with H??…)I saw them duel the length of the stretch Express Train held him at bay by a neck ….Mandella works his stock fast—so does Yakteen….Bob develops good horses and he develops Derby Horses! But I do not see him ruining horses, I’ve been lucky to see some good horses out here, I wish I could have seen American Pharoah but the trainer that doesn’t race them ran him eight times at three, all eight back east….and that’s good…..
Honor A P…..beautiful nearly black muscular colt! I liked Express Train more and I asked John his name—John liked both!
Honor A. P. had some really nice yearlings at the sales and his first crop will be racing later this year. Gorgeous horse.
Matt was at Santa Anita when won the Frontrunner Stakes (now named after him). Great horse but I always felt that Justify was better but loved them both. But I think Bob will always have a soft spot for American Pharoah.
American Pharoah was highly regarded from the beginning, as was Justify—Pharoah had a heckuva year!—His Classic was not exactly one of the toughest fields, especially with the Beholder scratch, but American Pharoah did something that Seattle Slew, Affirmed and Justify did not—he finished out the year on top…..
Love the bit about Courtly Dee.
Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 5 opens on Friday, 3-15 and closes on Sunday, 3-17.
Determinist’s opening odds are listed at 20-1. At the close of Pool 4, Deterministic closed at 99-1. Evidently, Mike Battaglia was so impressed with his Gotham win, there are only four horses listed with lower opening odds. They are as follows, Sierra Leone (5-1), Timberlake (8-1), Dornoch (12-1) and Fierceness (12-1). Forever Young and Mystik Dan are listed at 20-1 as well.
I swung for the fences in Futures Pool 3, which are my only Futures wagers. My next KD wagers will be on the first Saturday in May.
BTW, if I were to place a bet in Pool 5, (which I’m not), I would go with Endlessly, at 50-1. He’ll be facing a relatively weak field in the Jeff Ruby Steaks, on 3-23. The Louisiana Derby is where the action is on 3-23, with one of the strongest fields yet to be seen on the Derby trail.
Good luck, if you take a shot in Pool 5.
I may go with Stronghold at 80-1 ML.
Stronghold is listed as “possible” in the Ark. Derby, SA Derby and the Blue Grass. Trainer Phil D’Amato will have to pick his poison. All three of those races will have very competitive fields looking for Derby points. If Stronghold can replicate his Sunland Derby form, he could finish in the money, and earn enough points to put him in the Derby starting gate.
Good luck, Winston.
Hey Bill …I’m not a big Futures player, I have $5 on Honor Marie at 36-1…..that is all— but I wish I paid more attention to that Preakness pool, where Maymun closed at 20-1 sixth choice, we KNOW nearly all of the Derby horses skip the race, right now I consider a fresh Maymun as the Preakness horse to beat, because he’s the best horse not running in The Derby, in my opinion …I’m thinking Conquest Warrior gets in….
A Futures Derby/Preakness Double would be cool …even a Triple Crown Futures Pick Three..
Good luck with Honor Marie, Matthew W.
Hey Steve,
Here’s something interesting to contemplate. Based on the Equibase and Beyer numbers on the Tampa Bay Derby, my chart says that the Thoro-Graph number could (if my chart is close which is pretty iffy) as slow as an 8 or as fast as a 5.5.
Since Equibase is algorithm centered and both Thoro-Graph and Beyer involve human expertise, I’m guessing that it’ll be closer to a 5.5. If that’s the case (and I’m probably way off base), the Sierra Leone and Domestic Product will both enter the last round of preps off of a similar Thoro-Graph rating. Which, if true, is pretty bizarre considering how far apart the two are in the futures with the same trainer and jock.
I’m not sure how soon you get the Thoro-Graph number, but would love a hint as to which is closer 8 or 5.5 🙂
HI Steve, thank you for writing about Courtly Dee as you said you would in your reply to my note about her to you last week. It was not however the highlight of this weeks reading. I am the product of Brooklyn Parochial School education. In 1963 whilst in the 7th grade I made the finals of the citywide Catholic School Spelling Bee. I finished 14th of 32nd ( an apt precursor for the times I would fail to hut the board) exiting on the word LOQUACIOUS! The winner won it by nailing ANTHROPOMORPHIZE!
LOL. Youre a lot better than me. I still cant spell that word without looking it up.
You’re opening paragraph pretty much summed it for me. Sort of like the Inquiry light flashing then posting NO CHANGE. I
do love the detail for the rest as always the Devil is in the Detail. My eyes are on Mystic Dan and Forever Young. I am looking forward to what the South African horses can do who arrived here last week.
In a submission before Gotham, I stated that if Just A Touch emerged the winner of his stakes debut. He would stamp himself an exceptionally talented colt. He didn’t win but he nonetheless stamped himself as an exceptionally talented colt. He is now #2 on my list replacing Liberal Arts.
Sierra Leone remains #1 but with a big question mark that has absolutely nothing to do with his ability but rather the history relating to multi-million-dollar yearlings and the Kentucky Derby.
Fusaichi Pegasus was acquired for a whopping $4,000,000. He won the KD by 1 1/2L closing from 12L off the pace. For a purchase price of $4M, a 1 1/2L victory in the KD suggests his purchaser overpaid. Mine That Bird was purchased for $9,500 and he jointly holds the 2dnd widest margin of victory (6 1/2L) in the KD with Barbaro.
In all seriousness million-dollar babies rarely win the KD and it’s not that they do not possess the potential to do so. They are very few in numbers and most do not run to either their pedigree or purchase price. Tapit probably has the most million-dollar babies and the best finish in the KD was the 4th recorded by Mohaymen who was acquired for $2.2M.
Sierra Leone is running to both his price and pedigree. But will history deny him with a better opponent on the day?
“Sierra Leone remains #1 but with a big question mark that has absolutely nothing to do with his ability but rather the history relating to multi-million-dollar yearlings and the Kentucky Derby.”
If by multi-million dollar yearlings, you mean a selling price of $2 million or more, this is the derby history: Five starters in the derby were sold at auction for $2 million or more. One of the five was a winner. That’s a pretty good record, albeit a small sample.
“Fusaichi Pegasus was acquired for a whopping $4,000,000. He won the KD by 1 1/2L closing from 12L off the pace. For a purchase price of $4M, a 1 1/2L victory in the KD suggests his purchaser overpaid.”
There may be several valid reasons to suggest that the buyer overpaid, but WINNING the Kentucky Derby by 1.5 lengths is most certainly not one of them.
To be more precise, the only SEVEN figure auction horse to win the KD has been Fusaichi Pegasus.
Majestic Prince sold for $250,000 at Keeneland in 1967 and, with inflation adjusted to now, would have cost over $2 million. There are probably others when similarly adjusted but Majestic Prince came to mind.
Wajima was the highest priced yearling purchase ….and best three year old from a crop that included Foolish Pleasure and Avatar…..
Come on WW!
When a yearling is purchased for $4M. The expectation is for share dominance of its peers. FP was defeated in the Preakness by 3 1/2L.
Read what YOU wrote and what I quoted: “… the history relating to multi-million-dollar yearlings and the Kentucky Derby.”
If you adjust for inflation it’s maybe even worse. There have only been six winners who sold for over 500k in 2024 dollars.
Alysheba and Winning Colors won back to back Derbies and their prices would be about 1.5M, The only other ones besides Fusaichi Pegasus would be Majestic Prince at about 2M in todays dollars, Justify and Nyquist.
As far as value goes, Winning Colors at 3-1 was the 2nd longest price of the bunch… Alysheba was the bomb at 8-1.
I’m in the process of looking into how many have started that cost 500K+. The 2018 field had 8 horses that would qualify. Just a quick scan and I’ll guess that it’s probably an average of 5 or 6 for the years that I have easy access to (2000 – 2018)
Sorry, Jim, pardonne-moi, I just noticed your post which is basically identical to what I posted 3 hours later. So, you get the elephant stamp for being first. Ha ha. Well, done. I’m popping in and out of Steve’s blog so quickly that I sometimes miss things.
As they say, great minds think alike… or is it obsessive compulsives think alike 🙂 I’m clicking so much this week my fingertips are sore… lol
Here in Melbourne, we have had 5 days of over 100 during the day, with nights hovering around 82 and 75% humidity to top it off all during an extended public holiday weekend. Cabin fever was setting in but today the temperature finally dropped with some rain. The computer, and air conditioning, have kept people sane. lol.
I’ve been a fan of Senor Buscador for years, when he ran in the Springboard Mile at 20-1 morning line I posted about him on this blog —he won, at around 7/2…..but I do not believe he’s a ten furlong horse….. I’m liking the California Chrome horse, and if you can—try to find the Kazhicstan race—I have been to the Tillamook Fair, and Klamath Falls, those tracks were more advanced than that Kazhicstan track, this horse is truly an outlier!….
Is the Kentucky Derby not necessarily the Kentucky Derby because of the absence of Bob Baffert’s entrants?
Does Bob Baffert’s entrants a Kentucky Derby make?
There needs to be serious answers to the above questions because there are assertions that the KD is not necessarily competitive and not the same without entrants from the barn of Bob Baffert. These assertions lack credibility and are quite frankly offensive to the litany of other American based trainers and trainers from other racing jurisdictions whose horses qualify to run in the race.
Aidan O’Brien is the dominant modern era Epsom Derby trainer with 9 wins. If for whatever reason his entrants were either absent or banned from running. Their absence would be noted but the focus would be exclusively on the race and its participants. Is the British Racing Public less impacted by polarization, more informed and rational than its American counterparts?
To elevate any trainer to a status bigger than a race is sacrosanct. Further, it is an act of gross disrespect to other trainers; their owners; their support personnel and their horses. Why is it an act of disrespect?
Any assertion that elevates the status of trainer to being the wind beneath the KD wings, has the prospect of tainting any victory without that trainer’s entrants. Some KD winners are likely to be viewed as either undeserving or achieving victory without beating the omitted best.
This is the damage that uniformed and irrational folks/fans are either knowingly or unknowingly causing with their ill-conceived assertions.
This is truly pathetic. The historic Kentucky Derby deserves better than having its significance hinged to a suspended and disgraced trainer.
“…disgraced trainer”?
I thought Steve asked the slander here to stop.
Hi John
I very much appreciate Counter Point’s argument including him contrasting the angst associated with the absence of Bob Baffert’s horses and how English and Irish racing fans would view an Epsom Derby in the absence of entrants by Aidan O’Brien.
As far as Counter Point’s use of the term “disgraced trainer”, I feel it is one apt description of Bob Baffert and an appropriate one in this context given that his ban from Churchill Downs is the reason his horses will not be in the Derby’s starting gate.
I could be wrong in my assessment, but I expect Steve will be fine with this categorization by Counter Point as it is factual with no personal animosity or editorializing included in his post. Plus, I believe Steve was rightfully trying to prevent our comments about Bob Baffert from becoming divisive in nature and taking the comments section on a tangent away from the horses who are vying for spots in the KY Derby field.
I expect Steve will also appreciate you trying to nip any divisiveness from gaining traction. Towards that, you are to be commended just as Counter Point is to be acknowledged for naming the elephant in the room without rushing to take sides on Bob Baffert’s character.
I hope your Derby handicapping is going well, John, and that you are enjoying this journey through the prep-races that Steve graciously dissects and the beautiful thoroughbreds that Steve helpfully assesses for us.
greg (Fan of Damascus)
Some of us do not believe the disgrace in this matter lies west of the Mississippi. I do not appreciate Coldfacts arguments one bit because as always, he either cherry picks his facts to make his point, or in this case, blows the oppositions position out of proportion to make his point. NONE of us has elevated BB above the race. The points made have been quite simply that the quality of entrants is better, and thus the race is better, when BB’s horses run. He blows the discussion out of proportion so that he can then call some of us here “uniformed,” “irrational”, and “truly pathetic,” Did you miss that Greg? You must have. Read slower next time especially when reading the dribble from this disturbed, lonely little man who has nothing better to do than insult people he does not know. I trust your Derby prelude is proceeding splendidly. Do tell.
My apologies, that would be drivel, not dribble. I must have a bad case of March Madness.
And some of us do believe it.
El Kabong
Counter Point has stated that he is not Coldfacts. 🙂
And I’m not Quick Draw McGraw because I wear a mask and swing a mean guitar. LOL. Oh but he is Bill, but I’m not surprised by that denial.
There are several others on this blog that would agree with you. Enough said.
I think of what the Derby would be like without Pletcher horses, and it would be diminished for east coast fans, especially. And that’s with a low win percentage, but hopes, aspiration and cheering preference play a big role, and rightly so.
Hi El,
My post was directed towards John’s comment suggesting Counter Point had slandered Bob Baffert. I do not feel he did.
As to the rest of Counter Point’s post, as mentioned, I liked his comparison to a KY Derby without Bob Baffert’s horses and an English Derby without Aidan O’Brien’s
I was not and am not a fan of any writer who disparages or makes a dig and another commenter. I say that now about Counter Point’s comments and about yours directed at Counter Point.
I rarely post because I am not a gambler and I am not as informed about the key Derby horses outside the more “household names”. I come to this site because I am a fan of Steve’s writing and insight. Even more, I (generally) enjoy the sense of community Steve has created here.
Like any community there will be members who we like quite a bit and some who might on occasion annoy us. It would be nice if we compliment those with whom we find favor and find ways to either ignore the comments / commentors we don’t like or find the grace to acknowledge the well-presented postings they do write.
As far as the Derby goes, I am a fan of two states-side colts: Sierra Leone, and Conquest warrior, and the Dubai-based Mendelssohn Bay who is scheduled to run in the UAE Derby.
For March Madness I like Kentucky though the team I am really pulling for is my alma mater U C Irvine – the top seed in the Big West tourney.
Who do you like?
greg
From what I’ve seen, the winner will come from Steve’s top 6 but we unquestionably will see some more telling races quite soon, especially from our overseas contingent. We are at a point where not many cards have been turned over. That said I would not put a dime into a future pool if you paid me.
I too come here for Steve’s writing and insight, and find most of the community so enjoyable to share this experience with that I have been here for over 20 years. But I find it insulting not only to me and the others here, but to our host when somebody goes out of their way to insult with words like “uniformed,” “irrational”, and “truly pathetic.” Regardless of his opinion, to toss those words out so callously is something I will not ignore. I don’t think you or anyone else should either. It’s not how we should engage and it pulled out the worst in me that is for sure. I will tell you he will write a book about how he did not say those words in his next post but trust your eyes.
Enjoy Steve’s work and community here it is worth it as you well know, you’ve been here for some time and I recognize your handle as a senior member of this group. Enjoy the races.
Hi El Kabong,
You are 100 % correct about the inappropriateness of Counter Point’s comments and his depiction of some of the community members.
This is something that Counter Point needs to improve upon. I hope he will.
greg
Hi El,
My post was directed towards John’s comment suggesting Counter Point had slandered Bob Baffert. I do not feel he did.
I was not and am not a fan of any writer who disparages or makes a dig and another commenter. I say that now about Counter Point’s comments and about yours directed at Counter Point.
I rarely post because I am not a gambler and I am not as informed about the key Derby horses outside the more “household names”. I come to this site because I am a fan of Steve’s writing and insight. Even more, I (generally) enjoy the sense of community Steve has created here.
Like any community there will be members who we like quite a bit and some who might on occasion annoy us. It would be nice if we compliment those with whom we find favor and find ways to either ignore the comments / commentors we don’t like or find the grace to acknowledge the well-presented postings they do write.
As far as the Derby goes, I am a fan of two states-side colts: Sierra Leone, and Conquest warrior, and the Dubai-based Mendelssohn Bay who is scheduled to run in the UAE Derby.
For March Madness I like Kentucky though the team I am really pulling for is my alma mater U C Irvine – the top seed in the Big West tourney.
Who do you like?
greg
oops
You are only adding to the fire. It is not necessary to keep bringing up Bafferts name. All it is going to do is spark more disagreements & arguments among Steve’s followers.
I will say this, everyone has an opinion but we also know the trutrh is out there somewhere.
There is always more than 2 sides to any story.
Correct! Some derives pleasure pushing some agenda or another.
Totally agree
Thanks Deacon!
“Their absence would be noted but the focus would be exclusively on the race and its participants.”
You must not be familiar with the British character.
KENTUCKY DRBIES WITHOUT LASIX (FAST TRACK)
2021 – Mesina Spirit———2:01.02
2022 – Rich Strike———–2:02.61
2023 – Mage—————- 2:01.57
KENTUCKY DRBIES WITH LASIX (FAST TRACK) (LAST 10)
2020 – Authentic————–2:00.21
2016 – Nyquist—————-2:01.31
2014 – California Chrome—-2:03.66
2012 – l’ll Hae Another——-2:01.83
2011 – Animal Kingdom——2:02.04
2008 – Big Brown————-2:01.82
2007 – Street Sense ———2:02.82
2006 – Barbaro—————2:01.36
2005 – Giacomo————–2:02.75
2003 – Funny Cide———–2:01.19
Thee had to be some pretty weak crops in the last 10 KDs with Lasix
Nysos out at least 30 days. Something never did smell right about the late scratch for San Felipe+no works since. Preakness now wide open (veyr unlikely he makes gate with race only 9 weeks away). A ton of value in the original Preakness pool a couple weeks ago if you took anyone else for the most part.
If it looks like a fish and smell like a fish….fill in the blanks.
A trainer prioritizing the horse’s health over racing should be considered admirable. Leave it to the BB fishmongers to try and spin this any other way especially since they have no information on why Nysos is sidelined. Give it a break.
Yeah, a first!
The same trainer that did not give Havnameltdown de-wormer? That’s taking care of your horse.
Look it up, it’s in the necropsy report. It’s shame your idol doesn’t know you exist.
And so is the Santa Anita Derby. I hope there are more than four entries, even if Muth runs.
Ms Blacktype, it certainly gives Mc Vay a better chance of gaining more points to get in the Derby. I wonder which Baffert colt will run for the Santa Anita Derby now and which ones will go for the Arkansas Derby and the Blue Grass Stakes, possibly Wood Memorial?
Davids In guessing Maymun might now be staying home, and not shipping to Arkansas.
Thanks Matthew, I hope that is the case. I probably wouldn’t have even sent Flightline off to Hot Springs after only two starts.
Any word on Change of Command? Asked last week, just curious what happened.
Tiznow officially twenty seven today ..
Wow, time flies – his Back to Back Breeders Cup wins were electric and “Tiznow wins it for America”
His 2000 Classic was over Giants Causeway, Albert the Great, Captain Steve, Lemon Drop Kid and Fusiachi Pegasus! Then came his weird year, after his Big Cap win he refused to train, had back issues…..but he had something left! His second Classic was monumental….
…and both times he paid very well…..
One of the best!
Steve
Any updates on Speak Easy ?
One theyre off the De4by trail I cant spend too much time checking on them and his conectionsarer hard to get any info from. If I speak to nElliott Walden I’ll ask him.
Thanx for the response Steve. U R The BEST !
Great information as usual. From my perspective, as much as I love TB racing and following the trail to the KD….it has become less interesting each year. The lack of racing/competition makes it a guessing game as to which horse will peak at the right time.
The breeding industry plays a major part in these decisions. Less racing, preserving win records and off to the shed. Hard to root for them when they are whisked away after 6 or 7 races.
However, not giving up on hitting the Tri or perhaps the Super on the first Saturday in May.
I thought last year’s Derby group was weak, but wow, this year’s crop of 3 year olds look to be an all time bad group. What is going on here? Where have the standout horses gone?
You ccan find a few of them in a ccertain barn at Santa Anita.
We’ve seen how the standouts from that certain barn perform the last couple of years. Beating up on local inferior competition always looks good.
Are you refferring to the three Ky. Derby winners?
You cheer the “winners”, I pity the ones that do NOT survive the program.
Looks like someone has forgotten a time when Bob sent half of his kids to Oaklawn to swipe the Ark Derby while defending his turf at Santa Anita.
One of the Derby winners is dead and not a winner anymore. Another could barely get 9 furlongs but destroyed fools at 10. His TC winner was just dq from SA Derby so shouldn’t have even run in the Derby due to not having points. Funny how he is always the common denominator? What about horses like Gamine and Charlatan who failed tests. IT is never ending with this dope. He somehow has horses of a lifetime year after year.
Have you applied your keen eye and scrutiny else where or does your high powered judgement microscope only focus on one man? You really have to be desperate to use these generalizations, a dead horse, a horse who didn’t run his best at 9F but wins at 10. Newsflash, everyone has a dead contender in their past. Many have a horse who finished second in the 9F local derbies only to win at 10F. Street Sense, Super Saver, Authentic, and that’s just off the top of my head without compiling a verified list. How do you explain Rich Strike and Mine That Bird with your 9-10 theory? Oversimplify and only apply your methodology to one person and you will get the results you want. USELESS Scot. Give it a rest.
The dead hose would be 6 years old right now. He died at 3. Authentic held off NY Traffic lol of all horses by a nostril in the Haskel, then rebreaks in the Derby and BC Calssic. Wild.
Blah….blah….blah….. As much as you deny it… it’s obvious that you are a BB bootlicker, through and through. Also, name dropping proves you are trying very hard to make an impression. Frankly, I don’t give a hoot which trainer or owner you know.
Give it a rest bootlicking bong man.
Do you think that barn has been good for the game overall or damaged the game?
Personally, I believe the leader of that barn has changed this game for the worst. People are fooled by the few horses that make headlines every year. However, what’s overlooked is the fact that of the dozens that get in the “program”, most are never heard from.
It wasn’t that long ago when most trainers raced their charges 7, 8, 9 times prior to the KD. This barn changed all that over the past 10 years or so. We’re lucky if we see these magnificent equine athletes race 4 or 5 five times now.
Bob has a fraction of the Cox and Pletcher and Asmussen barns, yet his top horses are as prominent as theirs—Ill bet there are way more forgotten horses from those other barns, you’re just cherry picking Bob…..he has won 2024 grade ones, with De Jour, Newgate and National Treasure, and Adare Manor just ran her career best number in defeat, that’s already four older horses, in 2024 and it’s early…..
“you’re just cherry picking Bob”……the topic was BB.
You have mentioned how Bob ruins horses, so I pointed out his older horses 2924 success, and it’s early ..YOU made the point, In rebutting—its Horse Racing, where everyone has an opinion or fifty—
Great that YOU have an opinion about what a great trainer BB is. To each his own….
His point was that you are applying a standard of judgement to BB and not to the others. But when that same standard is applied to others, like Matthew points out, your case against BB backfires. In fact he looks better because he is achieving more with less and the number of those “left behind by the progam,” are fewer in BB’s barn than those in the barns of Cox, Pletcher, and Asmussen.
It’s pure speculation to say those three trainers leave more triple crown competitors behind, you’re just taking a swipe at them because someone took a swipe at your favorite. That happens a lot.
The horses “left behind” by those large barns help fill up everything from optional claimer to graded stakes races after the triple crown season is over. They’re an important source of high quality 3 yo’s for the rest of the racing season which peaks in the summer and fall.
These trainers also haven’t gotten in the way of small barns winning the last two Kentucky Derbies and last year’s Breeders Cup Classic. It could happen again with Dornoch. There’s nice mix of big, medium and small barns at the east coast and middle west tracks.
Well that just blows up Zany’s whole notion about BB doesn’t it? The reality is that most of the horses a trainer gets will not improve to the level of getting to Louisville. And as for trying to blame BB for the decisions of so many other trainers to not run their horses more often before the Derby, well that is pure insanity to think that those trainers have been put under some kind of BB spell. They are responsible for their decisions to not run horses not BB. Next thing we’ll here is that BB is responsible for all the speed breeding in the industry. Wait for it………….
Sorry, I can’t help ignorance not to mention your prejudiced love for BB.
However, I will point out that Bodemeister was a perfect example of how this trend started.
Have a pleasant rest of your day.
From you idol….
Nysos was scratched the day before he was supposed to start March 3 at Santa Anita in the Grade 2 San Felipe, a race in which he would have been the odds-on favorite. At the time, Baffert said, “Going to wait for the Santa Anita Derby. I changed my mind. All good.”
This morning…Asked specifically whether anything was physically wrong with the Nyquist colt, Baffert said, “Fine.” He told TDN that the setback was “minor.” ““Will be out of training,” trainer Bob Baffert said in a text message Tuesday, confirming what was reported first by Thoroughbred Daily News. “Tack walking for 30 days. No plans.”
Very trustworthy indeed.
Again my angry friend, you have nothing, zero, nada information on the condition of Nysos and the barn is under no obligation to share that with you or anyone. Get over yourself. The important thing is they are doing what is right for the horse. Sorry that irritates you so much. If you weren’t on such a mission you might see that but you see very little.
“Sometimes the Bible in the hand of one man is worse than a whisky bottle in the hand of another.”
― Harper Lee, To Kill a Mockingbird
Planet in which you occupy- BB does no wrong.
Mike …THAT is what you read, out of his post— I don’t read him saying Bob can do no wrong, I stead I read YOU saying as much, which is the definition of prejudice, you pre-judge anybody that would like a Derby with all of the good horses, I know I don’t think Bob can do no wrong—-Id just like him back in the race….
Bob B. mislead the public when he said trainers have gut feelings, we’ll wait for the Santa Anita Derby. He might have known then that he wasn’t going to do that either. If so, he publicized an alternate fake plan. I think that’s wrong. Also being coy with a message like “no plans”, suggests he’s out for longer than a month.
You’re better off reasoning with a five year old. The BB zealots are blinded by his “superior training powers”.
Correct!
Totally agree with your take regarding Nysos. Obvious to those who don’t place their heads in sand constantly.
It seems the bong man has taken one too many hits and can’t seem to distinguish the difference between real horsemen…Mandella, Mott, McGaughey, O’Brien, Appleby, and his idol who seems be in the news for all the wrong reasons.
Bravo! They all forgot more regarding training than he ever knew.
You bark with little information in the arsenal of your accusations, you assume time and time again without even asking the right questions. A person like you will never learn because of these poor decisions and character flaws. If you or anyone one of your flunkies had ever asked me who my favorite throughbred trainers are, I would have told you that Bobby Frankel, Larry Jones and Gai Waterhouse would come to mind right off the bat. In today’s racing I admire Richard Mandella and I have posted as such several times in the recent past of this column. I have a special connection with Aidan O’Brien that you will never attain. Bob is not my idol, he just not my whipping post. I am not idolizing the man but it may appear that way to you and MIke simply because you want me to join your posse of contempt. Not going to do it, wouldn’t be prudent. You need to find another cause.
Well said Matthew
To Zanytactics:
How did Bob B. change how many times trainers race? I’ve always thought the economy did that, it’s an expensive business and trainers have become care takers more than trainers, using excuses like, we’ll let the horse tell us and other baloney, to reduce the amount of racing. Trainers 80 years ago looked after their horses too but they had to make money racing. Nobody had much money then, compared to now, when affluence is all over.
Several trainers other than Baffert this century entered horses with three starts or less before Justify in 2018. In fact, Big Brown had just three starts and WON the derby in 2008. Curlin was third in 2007. And plenty more horses before 2018 had just four starts before the derby.
Nysos hasn’t worked in 16 days. Red flag.
I’m not one to waste $$$ on futures wagers, especially on the KD. Attrition has a funny way of sneaking up on our favorite horses.
Zanytactics: The Kentucky Derby Future Wagers may be the only way to wager on the horses racing in the Florida Derby. One of the horses, Conquest Warrior, was bet 3 to 5 odds in his last allowance race. Hades and Dornoch also will have low odds.
Love him or hate him, he makes it interesting and gets people at least talking about the West Coast horses. Right now there is nothing from that region
2023 Derby Group weak –
Mage KD winning time – 2:01.57 (Fast Track)
American Pharaoch KD winning time – 2:03.02 (Fast Track)
California Chrome KD winning time – 2:03.6 (Fast track)
I don’t think any horse from last year’s Derby has won another race again
Given all the underperformances and nonperformances, Steve, it was a good idea to keep to the shorter list this week. That said, the Derby WILL take place in less than two months whether the horses are ready or not. I really appreciate how much effort you put in to developing the backgrounds and day-to-day progress on dozens (if not hundreds) of horses, not to mention delving into the influence of their many connections. I hope it is as rewarding for you as it is for us!
Thanks. It is a labor of love.
Steve, would you be okay with posting a number that I can send a text to, I’d like to share a photo with you.
Thanks!!!
Here we are in the midst of a lull in action on the Derby Trail. Yet, in spite of a sense of frustration while waiting for the final tests of the 100 point preps, Steve manages to keep us engaged with his many updates angles and theories. Steve, we know it hasn’t been easy this year with the limited activity you have to work with, but, you nail it every week. Thanks for keeping us involved on the road to the Derby. The action picks up on the 23rd with the Jeff Ruby Steaks and the Louisiana Derby.
Meanwhile, this weekend we have Selection Sunday which begins March Madness. GO BIG BLUE!
March Madness has arrived at the perfect time, hasn’t it? Should be fascinating this year.
You said it, Ms. B. Filling out our brackets will keep us occupied while waiting for the Derby prep action to resume. It’s always fun to watch the NCAA tournament, especially the first two rounds.
I appreciate it Dewey, thank you. We have our own March Madness.
You’re right, Steve. Our Derby March Madness keeps us on our toes and that makes it more fun where a case can be made for multiple contenders rather than just an elite few. Hey, maybe we should all submit a Derby bracket and see who scores the most points? lol
Not to forget the Fukuryu Stakes in Japan as well. Ramjet could ensure a trip to Kentucky with a win there.
Davids, if you like Ramjet, you’ve got to love Forever Young. There’s room for you on the bandwagon…. come on, jump on.
Dewey, I’m a bit sceptical of Forever Young obtaining enough points of getting in the Derby but, should he get those points, I don’t like all that travel he’s been involved in. Nonetheless, if you like him best of luck to you.
With Ramjet, the colt has a less arduous task of getting in the Derby, if the owners decide to go to Kentucky, and depending on whether Ramjet wins the Fukuryu Stakes.
Davids, I am confident that Forever Young will finish 1st or 2nd in the UAE Derby and thus earn his ticket to Louisville. Yes, there is a lot of travel involved, but this horse is a jet setter and he seems to adapt well.
Best of luck to you, Dewey, with Forever Young. It certainly would add more interest if both Ramjet and Forever Young make it to Churchill Downs. Fingers crossed.
By the way, the Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2,000 Guineas) (G1) at 10f will be run on April 14, 2024 at Nakayama racecourse.
If you are keenly interested in Japanese racing the website: japanracing dot jp have a List of JRA Graded races. Entrees and replays all free to the general public.
Thanks, Davids. I have japanracing.jp as one of my favorites in my horseracing folder. It has helped me to follow japanese racing more closely and I do enjoy watching the graded stakes to become familiar with the japanese stars. Their presence in world wide races is becoming more prevalent. I’m convinced that we will see Japan win the Kentucky Derby in the near future (hopefully this year). Ganbatsu te Forever Young!
I agree with you, Dewey, and, moreover, dirt racing in Japan is somewhat similar to what turf (grass racing) is in the US, a poor cousin to Japaneses turf racing. In the near future, Japan will be as dominant as the UK, Ireland, France, and Australia are on turf racing or even surpass them.
I’m really high on Shin Emperor going on to win the Arc for Japan, as his full brother Sottaass did for France.
From mid March through the first Saturday in May is my favorite time of year in sports. In that 6 week or so period we have:
The NCAA Tournament (Men’s and women’s–thank you, Caitlin)
Opening Day
NBA PLayoffs starting
NFL Draft
And the two biggies in my world–The Masters and The KY Derby. It was a dream of mine to be in the KY Derby winner’s circle while wearing my green jacket.
I second your emotion, Clownskill. This is a special time of year for any true sports fan. It’s like a pu pu platter of sports…. such a feast.
I’ve stood in the Kentucky Derby winner’s circle — but it was October when there was no racing, and so long ago no one at the track even noticed. Still a thrill!
Steve, I can’t really put my finger on it but there is a certain malaise about this year’s Derby trail. Usually by now you are highly anticipating certain clashes in the major preps but, for me anyway, that isn’t the case. Probably because the Baffert colts have the buzz but they’re not eligible to run in the Derby so your enthusiasm is tempered somewhat. There are some nice colts in your 15 list but none have really starred thus far.
This may all change in the final preps and let’s hope it does, the build up to the Kentucky Derby needs some dazzling performances to get the non-racing fans interested in racing for at least one Saturday during the year. If not for your marvelous critique of the races and overall impression of the contenders my eyes would be solely set on Newmarket for the 2,000 Guineas for the first Saturday in May, 2024. The return of City of Troy cannot come too soon.
Thanks again, Steve, for making the Derby Trial more exciting than what meets the eye on the track.
Thank you David. Anyway of convincing them to try City of Troy in a 1 1/4-mile dirt prep for the English Derby?
Steve, they think he’s the right colt for the Breeders’ Cup Classic, can handle dirt, but they want to try for the English Triple crown with him. Aidan O’Brien was talking about the Travers Stakes but it doesn’t fit with the St Leger Stakes. My guess is that they’ll know by then if City of Troy really wants to go the distance of the St Leger so the Travers Stakes could be on the cards. Time will tell.
I think the horses are alot more interesting than any list. Classifying and knocking them is an academic exercise, these horses are for real.
Yes, Discopartner, that’s true. One race on the first Saturday in May doesn’t define a horse/crop in my eyes either. This year the preps, and I prefer the preps to the actual Derby itself, have been dulled to a certain extent by weather, the predictable injures, the Baffert saga, and lack of spectacular performances by the colts that can enter the Derby thus far.
The Preakness and Belmont Stakes could be fascinating races and, who knows, the Baffert colts may falter here which would be a turn up for the books. I’ve been unlucky to have all my high expectation colts knocked out early which hasn’t help my enthusiasm either. Needless to say, let’s hope for some enthralling major prep races coming up in the near future.
To Davids:
I’m counting on these horses surprising us and running to good form and speed in the Derby. They’ve just been messing around up to now.
“I think the horses are alot more interesting than any list.”
I must have missed the comment posted by someone who thought that a list was more interesting than the horses. And, by the way, a list is just “1. Sierra Leone, 2. Timberlake, 3. Fiercenesss, etc.” Steve’s thorough analysis provides a starting point for discussion about one of the world’s great sporting events. If you don’t enjoy that, you should look elsewhere for satisfaction.
“Classifying and knocking them is an academic exercise…”
God forbid we should indulge in an academic exercise. Shame on us.
“these horses are for real.”
Gosh, thanks for that revelation.
My comment was short and to the point, but you refused to understand what I was saying, instead you minced my words.
I refused nothing. And try learning the meaning of “mincing words.”
You still didn’t get may point, but you’re hyper critical about it. Instead, you attacked my word use in my first post, to distract from my point. And you seem to think you’re funny. Don’t keep on responding to my or others’ posts like this.
You’ve been on here before, with a different name, quibbling over minor points, and peoples’ word useage, missing the big picture, and acting like a master of looking things up on the internet.
Everyone who disagrees with you and objects to your manner are not the same person. But I’ll leave you alone because you are a sensitive sort.
Looking forward to UAE Derby with Forever Young vs Pandagate . That will be my exacta box on March 30th
If all goes well Christophe Clement might have DETERMINISTIC and PANDAGATE in this yearrs 150th running of the Kentucky Derby !!!
Christophe Clement may have three in the gate if CAPITAL IDEA fires in the Wood Memorial
Steve:
Thanks again for finding new, interesting, and relevant information to add on these horses in the current down time before the 100 point prep races that should provide some clarity with breakout performances…
below are the current futures prices:
(Wm Hill and Circa)
1. Sierra Leone. 5-1, 8-1
2. Timberlake 10-1, 9-1
3. Fierceness 12-1 18-1
4. Mystik Dan 30-1 25-1…like those odds
5. Deterministic 20-1 20-1
6. Conquest Warrior 9-1 15-1
7. Dornach 7-1 8-1
8. Just a Touch 25-1
9. Domestic Product 60-1 20-1…60-1 seems high
10. Catching Freedom 18-1 80-1 still nice overlay at Circa
11. Track Phantom 10-1 10-1
12. Honor Marie 40-1 23-1…worth betting at 40-1
13. Hades 30-1
14. Forever Young 15-1 12-1
15. Liberal Arts 75-1 75-1…will look very good if he fires in Ark Derby…
Wow-great detail Steve! Thanks…
I know how on the one hand the trail has been a bit frustrating this year, but on the other hand my anticipation for the last round of preps is at an all-time high. I’m intrigued by nearly every horse on the list whereas I usually have already developed some favorites and a good number of horses that I’m not so interested in by now. The upcoming weekend lull in the action is going to strain my patience 🙂
Thanks again (even though it’s probably overkill at this point) for all of your insights along the way!
Thanks as always Jim. I agree about the anticipation.
The background that you provided on Deterministic, relative to his increasing value as a yearling was spot on. The ownership group that purchased Deterministic is headed by C. Steve Duncker, Former Chairman of the New York Racing Association and continues to serve on the Board of Directors. To say that he knows a thing or two about horses would be an understatement. I wouldn’t be surprised if you’re on a first name basis with Mr. Duncker. If you are, I would appreciate knowing how the owners selected the name “Deterministic”, which was “Very Fitting”, per Anne Archer Hinkle.
Thanks for all the work you do with your Weekly – Derby Rankings, week and week.
Edit to say “week after week”.
Ive known Steve for years and I have connections with St. Elias,so Ill try to find out Vinnie usually names the horses.
Thanks for the reply, Steve.
I would think his “Alpha Male” demeanor had something to do with the naming of Deterministic. In a lot of ways, he reminds me of Nyquist, who was most certainly an Alpha Male. If Deterministic had been born in the wild, I suspect he would be the dominate male stallion and leader of the herd. BTW, Deterministic “could” be a carrier of the X-Factor large heart gene. I’m wondering if he has curly, leaf-like ears, which has been described as an outward physical trait of a horse that “could” carry the large heart gene.
Thanks again for all you do Steve.
Steve
I meant to mention the similarity in the Dosage Index numbers of Nyquist and Deterministic.
Nyquist, DI = 7.00
Deterministic, DI = 7.80
Those high numbers are speed indicators, and both horses displayed the ability to carry their speed over a distance of ground.
I realize Dosage Profiles, Dosage Index and CD’s do not have the same significance as they did in years past, but it is interesting to note that the “Thoroughbred Database” continues to list those profiles. Just something to ponder.
Steve – The KY Derby is quickly approaching now being less than 2 months away and it sure seems very wide open to me. Consider me as one of Liberal Arts big fans as I believe he is the real deal and got on him early in KDFW2. He is training well as you stated and should be ready to fire a big shot in the ARK Derby against a salty field which could include Maymun and Mystik Dan. Timberlake is now listed as probable for the Blue Grass. LA should punch his ticket to the KY Derby with a 3rd or better performance. Star Jockey Tyler Gaffalione was named to ride LA in the ARK Derby. What’s your view of the jockey change to Tyler Steve? C. Torres has been the regular jockey for LA but Tyler Gaffalione will ride him instead.
I dont like getting a new rider for one race and then having to get another new rider for the Ky. Derby. Even if he wins,Tyler wont ride him in the Derby and you have guys like Castellano without a Derby mount.
Thanks Mr. Haskin for interesting insights. Each Jan. always look forward to your Derby list.
Thank you Mike