Kentucky Derby Rankings – Week 9
With the annual lull between the 50-point and 100-point races there isn’t much to do other than see what we’ve got so far, check out the latest Future Wager, see what undiscovered gems may still out there, make some sense of the speed ratings, and take a look at the prospective fields in the next three all-important weekends. ~ Steve Haskin
Derby Rankings: March 18, 2024 – Week 9
By Steve Haskin
1—Sierra Leone (Chad Brown, Gun Runner – Heavenly Love, by Malibu Moon)
I cannot recall so little being said about an early Derby favorite, but you can’t expect much to be said about a horse with three lifetime starts who will have only two starts this year and six weeks between those two starts. But I also cannot recall a Derby favorite he can be compared to. Unlike the typical favorites with excellent tactical speed who want to be right up there on the pace, watching him is like watching Forego or Zenyatta making that eye-popping move from the back of the pack, sweeping past horses on the far outside, and charging down the stretch determined to catch anyone in front of them regardless of how much ground they have to make up. The question is how confident can you be with a horse who lives on the edge as he does, has such a limited resume, and whose speed figures are hard to gauge because of the wet tracks on which he’s been running. There is no doubt he is an extraordinarily talented horse with an explosive turn of foot and we likely have seen only the tip of the iceberg. And it is what lies beneath the surface that has intrigued so many people. That is why his rematch with Dornoch in the Blue Grass Stakes is so highly anticipated. His connections just have to hope some speed shows up, because so far from the list of prospective starters we see nothing to run with Dornoch, but we’re still weeks away.
2—Timberlake (Brad Cox, Into Mischief – Pin Up, by Lookin At Lucky)
He will have a new jockey for the Arkansas Derby, with Flavien Prat named to ride. Cox has already named Prat to ride Catching Freedom in the Louisiana Derby so we’ll see how that plays out. If you follow the Thoro-Graph numbers Timberlake is the only horse who has run fast as a 2-year-old on multiple occasions (back-to-back 2’s and an early 5) and has come back at 3 and run a fast enough number (3 ½) to use as a launch pad to the Derby and convince us he has flourished over the winter. We have seen that visually by the way he has filled out and how professional he looked winning the Rebel Stakes. He also is the only horse to run three straight triple-digit late-closing figures on Brisnet. But as good as his numbers are, is he fast enough to beat Mystik Dan in the Arkansas Derby and whoever Baffert decides to send there? Once again, these are preps and I am looking for big efforts more than victories, as long as it puts you in a position to peak on Derby day. As far as the overall competition this year, remember, in his well-beaten, and seemingly dull, fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile when he was swept up in the Fierceness tornado, his “2” Thoro-Graph number is still the second-fastest number run by a 3-year-old (excluding the Saudi Derby), behind Mystik Dan’s spectacular Southwest Stakes victory
3—Fierceness (Todd Pletcher, City of Light – Nonna Bella, by Stay Thirsty)
Ok, we’ve heard enough psychoanalysis and accusations of being untrustworthy and unable to cope with adversity. The Florida Derby is coming up in a couple of weeks and I suspect he will be in a no-win situation, with plenty of doubters even if he wins by 10 lengths. This colt will not have a true identity or a loyal following until he shows he can put together two huge efforts in a row. For now, we have little to judge him by other than two sensational five-furlong works in which he made the highly regarded Tuscan Sky look ordinary, especially in his most recent work in which Pletcher had him on the inside this time. Down the stretch on dead-eve terms, Tuscan Sky’s rider was asking him, shaking the reins, while Fierceness was in a common gallop. Past the wire Fierceness put six lengths between them in the blink of an eye and by the time they came out of the turn he was a pole in front and still going strong. The fact is, Fierceness hasn’t lost when he’s had a clean trip and no excuses, like almost throwing John Velazquez over the top at the start of the Champagne, getting bumped around and going five-wide into the far turn on a sloppy track he may or may not have detested. Then in the Holy Bull he was slammed into from both sides at the start, was pinned down trying to get to the outside going into the first turn and then had to bull his way through, still going five-wide into the turn before getting lulled to sleep through ridiculously slow fractions. I don’t know if these are legitimate excuses or not because he is judged on such a high scale and expected to overcome those things, but I just feel any horse who was as spectacular as he was in his two other starts deserves the benefit of the doubt for now.
4—Mystik Dan (Kenny McPeek, Goldencents – Ma’am by Colonel John)
He is keeping sharp with a five-furlong work in 1:00 flat. I came to the conclusion I would rather rank him right up near the top and be wrong than rank him lower and have him win the Derby after proving himself to be by far the fastest 3-year-old in the country on Thoro-Graph, Beyer, and Brisnet and having the biggest winning margin of any Derby prep. Of course that may all change after all the final preps are run, but for now I am throwing out the sloppy track and any perceived rail bias in the Southwest Stakes and simply going by what I saw. And we have already seen how fast he is on a fast track, even if it was a 5 ½-furlong maiden race. His 96 Beyer figure, 94 Brisnet figure, and “6 ¼” Thoro-Graph number in that race are comparable to the fastest speed figures this year by any of the leading 3-year-olds. And that was only his second career start. Oh, yes, it was at Churchill Downs and his winning margin of 7 ¾ lengths was pretty much the same as his eight-length margin in the Southwest. We have already discussed how he ran back too soon after that race and had backed off his feed. His blood work was fine, but he came out of the race with a lung infection. He didn’t work for a month and then had only two short breezes and went into the Smarty Jones Stakes a short horse. He got several good works in after moving to Fair Grounds because of the bad weather at Oaklawn and finally was ready for a top effort, which we saw in the Southwest. So maybe the horse we saw that day is actually the real Mystik Dan. He normally would be ranked No. 2, but despite my belief he will stay based on his female family, I still want to see first what he does going 1 1/8 miles before declaring a son of Goldencents a true mile and a quarter horse. He did sire the nine-furlong Louisiana Derby winner By My Standards, but he made no impact on the Kentucky Derby, finishing 12th.
5—Deterministic (Christophe Clement, Liam’s Map – Giulio’s Jewel, by Speightstown)
He is scheduled to work this Wednesday and then it’s likely back to New York for the Wood Memorial. He doesn’t have much of a resume to go on, so all you can do is make your conclusions based on what you have seen and what his speed figures tell you. Pedigree-wise, he appears to be speed over speed, but the bottom part of his female family is loaded with stamina through Tiznow and, and as we featured last week, that potent Courtly Dee female family. Liam’s Map, who was a brilliant horse up to 1 1/8 miles, has a very interesting top and bottom line. His male line traces to Fappiano, whose broodmare sire is the legendary Dr. Fager, while his female line traces twice to Dr. Fager’s half-sister Ta Wee, who along with her brother accounted for four straight Sprint championships, with each winning stakes carrying as much as 142 and 139 pounds. Leave it to the great John Nerud to breed Ta Wee to Secretariat and then breeding their daughter Tweak to Dr. Fager’s arch rival Damascus. So I’m not going to worry too much about a pedigree that has John Nerud all over it. From a speed ratings perpective, Deterministic’s Thoro-Graph numbers jumped from a “7 ¼” to a “2 ¾” following a seven-month layoff, and his Beyers from an 81 to a 93 and his Brisnet figures from a 90 to a 99. In short he came back running and did things in the Gotham you would expect from an experienced horse. He only has one race against classy seasoned Derby hopefuls to give us an idea what he can do going two turns for the first time, but after the Gotham I am confident this colt can do just about anything that is asked of him.
6—Conquest Warrior (Shug McGaughey, City of Light – Tea Time, by Pulpit)
Again we have a horse who is going to have his doubters because of his slow speed ratings, especially his 84 Beyer, 86 Brisnet figure, and just an OK Thoro-Graph number. But we’re forgetting what kind of year this has been so far. First of all, his “5” Thoro-Graph number is faster than major stakes winners Sierra Leone, Dornoch, Domestic Product, and Track Phantom, and I haven’t seen any 3-year-old this year who has more room for improvement than this massive, regal-looking colt who seems to inhale his opponents without taking a deep breath. And for a 17-hand, 1,300 pound behemoth he has shown the agility to use broken field running to overcome traffic problems. Of course, he hasn’t run against anything of note and will now have to earn a spot in the Kentucky Derby against the likes of Fierceness, Hades, and several other talented horses in the Florida Derby, but the focus should be on running his race and hope it’s good enough to at least finish second. Fierceness and Hades both pretty much need a victory to prove themselves following a freakishly run Fountain of Youth Stakes. And they both want be on or pressing the pace and can’t risk having one of them get loose on an uncontested lead. McGaughey of course would love to get him in the Derby, but he is not going to do anything that would jeopardize the colt’s promising future. If he is good enough now to earn his way in, then you better take him very seriously on the first Saturday in May.
7—Just a Touch (Brad Cox, Justify – Touching Beauty, by Tapit)
If I was a Future Wager bettor I would have been salivating on Saturday when I saw Deterministic’s odds of 12-1 and Just a Touch’s odds of 32-1. As it is they closed at 16-1 and 31-1 and I would still be salivating because I like Just a Touch as much as I do the horse who beat him by two lengths in the Gotham over a sloppy track and who, as a big muscular colt with a huge stride, did not handle the waterlogged surface as well as the winner. At a mile and a quarter, Just a Touch looks like the go-to horse. And I love Deterministic, as I have stated several times already. If you take their respective trips in the Gotham into consideration it was no surpise that they both ran the same “2 ½” Thoro-Graph number. While Deterministic’s was a five-point jump off his one start last year, Just a Touch started off fast with an extremely fast “2 ½” in his career debut in late January and managed to duplicate it over a different track and a longer distance, and it takes a pretty special horse to do that. Also, we have not seen this colt run on a fast track yet and he actually might be a better horse than we’ve seen so far once he can use his big stride on a track he can really get hold of. Florent Geroux has been very high on him and has apparently secured the mount with Flavien Prat being named on stablemate Timberlake
8—Dornoch (Danny Gargan, Good Magic – Puca, by Big Brown)
Looking at the prospective fields over the next few weeks there doesn’t seem to be a lot of true speed horses and that may be the case in the Blue Grass Stakes, as Dornoch as of now looks to be the only speed. Of course it is still early and I would be curious to see how Sierra Leone’s trainer Chad Brown handles that situation if it should arise. Dornoch didn’t exactly set the world afire as the only speed in the Fountain of Youth after getting away with a :48 half, but we know that he doesn’t mind a battle and has proven to be a tough horse to pass and put away. But as far as pure speed his numbers are not that fast, and with three straight Thoro-Graph numbers of either “6” or “6 ½,” he is at the crossroads as to where he goes from here. It’s either a case of this being who he is and not likely to make the big move forward he needs to or it is a positive sign that he has not regressed and is now ready to make that big move with a stretch-out in distance. Of course that doesn’t help anyone, but the truth is I don’t believe it has anything to do with ability or even speed ratings. I believe we will see the real Dornoch when that proverbial light bulb goes on and he figures out how to be a professional racehorse. Until then he will have to continue to figure out how to win races in spite of himself. Once the mind catches up to the talent then we will have a serious Derby horse.
9—Domestic Product (Chad Brown, Practical Joke – Goods and Services, by Paynter)
No matter what you think of this horse it makes sense. That is because his races this year have been pretty much a mess and they have either made him look good or look mediocre, depending on how you look at it. I doubt any horse who has ever traversed the Derby trail has experienced two races with fractions as slow as he has in the Fountain of Youth and Tampa Bay Derby. After the former’s pedestrian pace what do you think the odds would have been that the pace in his next race would be significantly slower? Let’s turn to the Brisnet figures. In the Fountain of Youth his early and middle pace figures of 63 ad 72 equated to nothing more than a morning jog, which enabled him to run a late pace figure in a strong 108 and close for second. In the Tampa Bay Derby his early and middle pace figures were an inconceivable 49 and 44, which equated to nothing more than a leisurely walk, enabling him to run a late pace figure in a mind-boggling 125 and just get up to win in a four-horse blanket finish. So did Domestic Product run so well in both races because of the pace or in spite of it? The way he had to be restrained early in both races I would say he won in spite of the pace. Because the Tampa Derby resulted in very slow Beyer and Brisnet numbers of 82 ad 84 and a “7 ½” Thoro-Graph number, following a “7” in the Holy Bull, Chad Brown has no choice but to run him again, likely the Wood Memorial, to give him a shot to have a competitive number going into the Kentucky Derby. I still believe this a really good horse who has not had a chance to show it.
10–Catching Freedom (Brad Cox, Constitution, Catch My Drift, by Pioneerof the Nile)
Welcome to the first of the 100-point races and your first and only chance to put your name on everyone’s lips come Derby week. Right now it’s just a morass of names and question marks. Separating Catching Freedom, Track Phantom, and Honor Marie in the Rankings has been difficult all year, and now they have several new faces to contend with who are just coming into their own. With Catching Freedom it’s all about getting a good trip, something he rarely gets, whether it was by his doing or not. And if anyone can work out a good clean trip for him it is Flavien Prat, who will be on him for the first time. As a middle of the pack horse he can at least stay close enough to the leaders to make a good run and get a beat on the deep closers. His Thoro-Graph numbers are steadily creeping forward, from a “9 ¾” twice to a “7” to a “6, which puts him right in the hunt in this field that is devoid of any big numbers. As I have mentioned on numerous occasions the vast majority of 3-year-olds this year need to take that big step and improve their speed ratings by at least three or four points in their final prep to put them in position to run a Derby-winning number at Churchill Downs. You just never know which horse or horses are going to be peaking on Derby Day and which one will have the Derby gods to guide them home. His trainer has been juggling his arsenal of Derby horses all year and now we will see where this guy fits, as long as he can get a clean trip and show us who he really is. The Albaugh family is often in the Derby hunt, finishing third last year with Arkansas Derby winner Angel of Empire, and they just want to see him “finish strong and get to Kentucky.”
11—Track Phantom (Steve Asmussen, Quality Road – Miss Sunset, by Into Mischief)
He has his doubters regarding his ability to get the mile and a quarter and going 1 3/16 miles should tell us a lot about him and whether he can get the 10 furlongs. It looks as if the only horse who can test him early in the Louisiana Derby is the Todd Pletcher-trained Antiquarian, but he has made only two starts and this is his stakes debut. We’ll see if Pletcher runs Agate Road here or in the Jeff Ruby and if Antiquarian is used to help set it up for him. Track Phantom’s first test could be getting to the lead from the 12 post without it taking too much out of him. Asmussen also has Hall of Fame in the field and he has speed, but you can be sure Asmussen will have Ricardo Santana sit off the pace and not pressure his stablemate into a fast or contentious pace. The two horses directly inside Track Phantom, Tuscan Gold and Common Defense, both have tactical speed and Track Phantom will have to break sharply in order to outrun them to the first turn, but if he does, neither one has the speed to stay with him. Joel Rosario knows he has to save enough to hold off the closers like Honor Marie, Real Men Violin, Catching Freedom, and Agate Road if he runs here. Because of the stamina questions surrounding Track Phantom and failing to win the Risen Star, which set up perfectly for him, we have kept him ranked around here most of the year, but have always maintained our respect for him because of his honesty ad willingness to do battle.
12—Honor Marie (Whit Beckman, Honor Code – Dame Marie, by Smart Strike)L
Since the debacle in the Risen Star Stakes when he had virtually no shot on that track he has been extremely sharp in his works and is looking to pick up where he left off when he ran a career-high “5 ½” Thoro-Graph number, 96 Brisnet figure, ad 92 Beyer figure in his Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes victory. It is also interesting to note that he is undefeated in his two starts on a fast track. We don’t know how the pace scenario of the Louisiana Derby is going to play out, but like several other deep closers who depend on a contentious pace, his main priority is closing strong enough to at least pick up a piece of it in order to assure a spot in the Derby and put himself in a good position to be a serious threat. We have seen his explosive closing power whether at six furlongs or 1 1/16 miles and there is no reason to think he will not duplicate that going classic distances. Considering we have seen what he is capable of, he could be an enticing Future Wager bet at 35-1.
13—Hades (Joe Orseno, Awesome Slew – The Shady Lady, by Quality Road)
I am probably as torn where to rank him as I am with any horse this year. Is he really a No, 12 or 13 ranked horse or is he actually more of a Top 5 ranked horse? From a visual standpoint he’s not the smoothest mover and runs with his head a bit high, and he hasn’t been able to corner as well as you would like, especially watching the head-on of the Holy Bull when he failed to negotiate the final turn into the stretch and carried Fierceness out, who in turn parked Domestic Product out toward the middle of the track. But on the other hand he has shown on several occasions that his natural ability and energy level are off the charts and he is going to give any horse fits who tries to take him on and go toe-to-toe with him. Remember, this was a colt with quite an attitude problem before the decision was made by Orseno to geld him. His Thoro-Graph numbers are in line with most of the main contenders, showing a steady progress and needing to improve several points to put him in a good position on Derby Day. He has run back-to-back triple-digit Brisnet late closing figures and has shown he can close off a fast or slow pace. He took some action early in the Future Wager, closing at 12-1 the first day, but wound up going off at 20-1, which isn’t bad for an undefeated horse. If he winds up beating Fierceness again in the Florida Derby and also Conquest Warrior there is going to be a furious rush to jump on his bandwagon. I just want him to look a bit more professional doing it.
14—Forever Young (Yoshito Yahagi, Real Steel – Forever Darling, by Congrats)
He is the other horse who has had me baffled as where to rank him. I have had him all over the place, but in the end we still know less about him than any other horse on the Derby trail. I have listed all the positives I have seen and they far outweigh the negatives, and that includes him winning the Saudi Derby despite being on his left lead the entire length of that long stretch. To me, only a good horse can do that, especially after going five-wide on the far turn following a rough start that cost him position early. Like Hades, it could turn out to be that he actually is a top 5 horse in a year with so many question marks. If he wins the UAE Derby you’re going to have those who will move him way up their rankings and you will have those who will harp on the fact he beat a New York-bred who has never run in an open stakes, just as they harped on the fact that he was life and death to beat a Tampa Bay sprinter. I believe those criticisms are off base on both counts, with Book em Danno and Pandagate both being worthy opponents. Right now, all I can say about Forever Young is that he would add an element of excitement to the Derby picture, as Derma Sotogake and Mandarin Hero did last year. But be careful what you wish for. What will the aftermath be following a Japanese victory over our best 3-year-olds? We likely will learn to embrace it just as baseball fans have done by making Shohei Ohtani the face of the sport. But we’re getting way ahead of ourselves. He still has a big step ahead of him.
15—Liberal Arts (Robbie Medina, Arrogate, Ismeme, by Tribal Rule)
This was your last chance to get a son of Arrogate with a great deal of promise and a strong closing kick at 45-1 odds in the Future Wager. But when you go two months without a race on the Derby trail and you didn’t create much of a stir in your first start it’s going to be out of sight, out of mind. But to those who have been waiting patiently for him to unload in his only attempt to assure himself a starting berth in the Kentucky Derby, the anticipation level is high. That is partly because we’re dealing with a consistent, hard-trying, professional colt who has Derby horse written all over him. Yes I can bring up Beyer and to a lesser extent Brisnet speed figures once again, but when you take all the elements of a race into consideration you are looking at a horse progressing beautifully on Thoro-Graph, going from a 13 to 11 ¼ to 9 ¾ to 6 ½ to 4 ¾, putting him on an excellent cycle and sitting on a number that would make him a serious contender. With him being such an honest and professional horse and Medina finally getting a Derby horse of his own, this is a easy horse to root for.
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR
You probably have heard by now that the U.S. will be represented in the UAE Derby by a New York-bred named PANDAGATE, trained by Chris Clement and owned by the Adelphi Racing Club and partners Madaket Stables, Corms Racing Stable, and On the Rise Again Stable, This is a good time to find out just who Pandagate is and if we have a chance of having a Kentucky Derby horse come out of Dubai.
This is a big, long-striding son of Arrogate with great mechanics and an excellent turn of foot who seems to do everything the right way and is nowhere near a finished product. After running Thoro-Graph numbers of “11 ¾” and “9 ¼,” he jumped to a “4 ½” in the one-mile Gander Stakes, in which he drew away with every stride, showing great extension and looking a lot like his sire. By comparison, that “4 ½” is faster than anything Derby favorite Sierra Leone has run.
In addition to being by Arrogate, Pandagate’s third dam is by a Belmont Stakes winner (Easy Goer), out of an Alabama winner (Classy Cathy), and Classy Cathy is out a a mare by Tom Rolfe, out of a Round Table mare. So there is plenty of class and stamina top and bottom.
Pandagate was picked out at the Fasig-Tipton New York-bred yearling sale at Saratoga by bloodstock agent Joseph Migliore for Adelphi Racing Club. Trainer Chris Clement also loved the horse and bid on him for Adelphi and signed the sales ticket for $130,000, even with the ridgling having two undescended testicles, which has not been a problem, but is something they keep an eye on. More important, when equipped with Equimetre sensors that registers a horse’s heart rate, locomotion, and stride analysis during training, his measurements were “off the chart,” according to Adelphi Racing Club managing partner and founder Matt Cutair.
Despite his size and stride, Clement felt he was athletic and precocious enough to start at 2, and he blew his field away by nine lengths in his debut, just tossing his ears around down the stretch. Sent to Laurel to get a two-turn race he was too far back on a speed-favoring track and closed well to be third. Clement has worked him in company three times with Deterministic so you can say he’s already had a mini class test. For a conservative trainer like Clement to decide to send him to Dubai for the UAE Derby says a lot. And he has already had some experience traveling, having shipped from Payson Park in Florida to New York and back to Payson Park.
So that is who will be representing the United States in Dubai. Let’s see if the ticket back home takes him to Louisville.
On the home front, we have discussed possible strategy for the Louisiana Derby, but in addition to the top choices, are there any other potential Derby contenders? In a year that has so many Derby hopefuls with only two lifetime starts you have to keep an eye on the Chad Brown-trained TUSCAN GOLD, who is coming off a 6 ¼-length maiden victory at Gulfstream. But it is his first start, in which he finished a strong fourth behind stablemate Sierra Leone while given a very questionable ride that is most interesting. In that race, Sierra Leone went off at odds of 3-1, with Tuscan Gold sent off at 10-1. But both colts were very different from each other and Brown actually liked Tuscan Gold more going into the race. So you know he had to have shown him a lot. Brown is still extremely high on the colt, as evidenced by running such a lightly raced horse at 1 3/16 miles against seasoned stakes winners running on their home track. Be advised, however, his Brisnet and Thoro-Graph numbers are very slow, even though he sure didn’t look slow in his last start. He has to break from post 11, so we’ll see how that plays out.
Speaking of horses with only two lifetime starts, Todd Pletcher has entered last-out maiden winner ANTIQUARIAN, who was beaten only a half-length by Conquest Warrior in his career debut. Airdrie Stud’s Bret Jones, who bred the son of Preservationist and sold him to Centennial Farm for $250,000 at the Keeneland September yearling sale, said he was a beautiful colt who the Centennial team fell in love with, especially with him being from the first crop of Preservationist, who meant so much to Centennial, having won the Woodward and Suburban for them. Believing in his potential as a stallion they were thrilled to get one of his sons that was bred and raised by such a classy and historic farm as Airdrie Stud, who stands him. So you can see what a victory in the Louisiana Derby would mean for both Centennial Farm and Airdrie Stud.
Also in the Louisiana Derby is the highly regarded HALL OF FAME, who is looking to rebound off a dull effort in the Risen Star over a sloppy track he never got hold of. This $1.4 million yearling by Gun Runner could be a smart play at a fairly big price based on his jumping from a “12 ½” Thoro-Graph number to a “5” in his 10 1/4-length romp in a 1 1/16-mile maiden race at Fair Grounds. If he indeed didn’t handle the slop in the Risen Star in only his third career start you have to figure he could be live in here off that “5,” especially with Steve Asmussen willing to throw out the Risen Star and run him back against his big horse Track Phantom again.
Kenny McPeek shows up with REAL MEN VIOLIN, the Kentucky Jockey Club runner-up who floundered over the worst part of track in the Risen Star, and COMMON DEFENSE, a strong runner-up in the Rebel Stakes behind Timberlake. Real Men Violin, who has been training brilliantly, has only one victory in six starts, but has never been out of the money, racing on fast, sloppy, and muddy tracks and on twice on grass, and in his only victory he defeated Track Phantom.
In addition to the Louisiana Derby, we have the Jeff Ruby Steaks, which has produced Kentucky Derby winner Rich Strike and runner-up Two Phil’s the past two years. One normally would expect the one-two finishers in the John Battaglia Memorial, ENCINO and EPIC RIDE, in the field, but both are looking to try the dirt in the Blue Grass Stakes. That leaves a wide-open field of 12, with two also-eligibles. Todd Pletcher has cross-entered AGATE ROAD and TRIPLE ESPRESSO in this race and the Louisiana Derby, with the latter drawing on the also-eligible list. Agate Road would be the favorite or second choice in the Jeff Ruby, but Pletcher might favor the longer distance of the Louisiana Derby. He also has entered NOTED, a stakes winner on dirt and grass in the Jeff Ruby. Triple Espresso is a solid grass horse who can close and on paper definitely belongs in the Jeff Ruby, but drawing on the also-eligibles he likely will be forced to go at Fair Grounds. It should be mentioned he has had a number of sharp works on dirt at Palm Beach Downs and is bred for the dirt.
Kenny McPeek, who has 3-year-olds, colts and fillies, coming out of the proverbial woodwork, has entered NORTHERN FLAME, who is coming off a game third in the Rebel Stakes, while Chris Clement is looking for a bounce back effort from OTELLO, who we had ranked No. 8 in week one, but was a big disappointment in the Holy Bull Stakes. His performance was a mystery and it is hoped he will bounce back following a brief freshening. An interesting longshot is WOODCOURT, who is coming off a fourth-place finish in the Rebel after breaking from the 12-post and was impresssive winning a one-mile allowance race at Turfway. He has also won on the grass and dirt.
There are so many more dirt horses than usual entered in the Jeff Ruby, including the impressive last-out allowance winner SEIZE THE GREY, trained by Wayne Lukas, who took some action in the Future Wager at 33-1; last year’s Iroquois winner WEST SARATOGA who placed in the Pasco and Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay this year; and the Sunland Derby third-place finisher LUCKY JEREMY. But if Agate Road doesn’t run the favorite likely would be the most proven synthetic winner in the field, ENDLESSLY, impressive winner of the El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate in his last start, who before that scored huge victories on grass in the Del Mar Juvenile Turf and Zuma Beach Stakes.
The final preps are starting to come into focus. The prospective field for the Wood Memorial is still up in the air until we find out if Deterministic and Just a Touch are going to return to New York. Right now the word is that Deterministic likely is headed for the Wood. It does look like the Wood is going to get TUSCAN SKY, who also has had only two lifetime starts and who looked like a seasoned pro winning what proved to be match race against the one-time hot prospect NASH. Tuscan Sky does have impressive Thoro-Graph numbers, with a “7 ½” and then a jump to a “3.”
The Wood, which likely will draw Tampa Bay Derby winner Domestic Product, the tough as nails EL GRANDE O, and the Withers winner UNCLE HEAVY, could be a place for redemption for CAPITAL IDEA, who I believe can improve a great deal off his fifth in the sloppy Gotham Stakes.
In addition to Tuscan Sky, Todd Pletcher could run BE YOU, who has had an unusual and at times hard-luck career that started off promising when he was beaten a hard-fought nose by Just Steel, with Locked 3 ½ lengths behind them. Then came a terrible trip in the Hopeful, an odd journey to California, where he finished third behind Muth in the American Pharoah Stakes. He then ran into a monster performance by Nash followed by a very wide trip against Conquest Warrior. Pletcher then dropped him back to seven furlongs against what many considered to be the most loaded maiden field of the year and he blew by everyone to win going away by 2 ½ lengths in a sharp 1:22 1/5. He desperately needed that win if only to boost his confidence and he may now be ready for bigger challenges.
Wayne Lukas remains steadfast in his training of the hard-knocking JUST STEEL, who has already run 10 times and can be excused for his poor effort in the Rebel Stakes when he was forced to go extremely wide on both turns and throughout the entire race. Lukas hasn’t backed off and worked him a full mile in 1:40 this past weekend.
Are there any bargains still around in the Derby Future Wager? Here are some with potential.
We mentioned earlier if you like Deterministic at 16-1, why wouldn’t you drool over getting Just a Touch at 31-1?
I find it interesting that Fierceness, who seems to have fallen out of favor with most of the analysts, was 12-1 after the first day, 11-1 after the second day, and closed at 9-1. If you are a big-time gambler who helped knock those odds down and are looking for a smart bet, that may be it. If you go by the 50-50 chance of him being a real superstar or a bust, and feel the former is still a good possibility, if he should romp in the Florida Derby, as he has done twice before, the bandwagon will load up again and you will have a possible 2-1 or 5-2 shot, or even lower, in the Kentucky Derby at 9-1. As it often applies with the sharpies on Wall Street, the time to buy is when everyone is selling.
As for other potential overlays, Domestic Product opened at 37-1 and even closing at 33-1 those are enticing odds on a proven stakes winner whose odds could plummet with a big effort in the Wood Memorial.
For big bombs I would love to have Resilience at a mouth-watering 128-1. Those odds are almost insulting on a horse I believe has a bright future and whose performance in the Risen Star was overlooked by most. This is a sneaky good horse. And based on what I wrote above I would have taken a shot on Be You at 160-1, feeling he could be sitting on a big race in the Wood, which has produced some big longshots in recent years. And of course there is the horse who is always an overlay and always gives his best. I would still jump at 45-1 on Liberal Arts, who doesn’t even have to win the Arkansas Derby for me to still believe in him at Churchill Downs.
Finally, Kenny McPeek, with Derby horses all over the place, has a colt named Lat Long headed for the Blue Grass Stakes. The son of Liam’s Map has run six times, has never been out of the money, beat his stakes-placed stablemate Common Defense handily two starts back going 1 1/16 miles, and finished a strong third to Track Phantom and Nash in the LeComte Stakes in his most recent start. Can I interest you in him at 468-1?
Racing historian, author, and award-winning retired journalist for the Daily Racing Form and The Blood-Horse, Steve Haskin was inducted into the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame’s Media Roll of Honor in 2016. Known for his racing knowledge and insightful prose, he has been an exclusive contributor to Secretariat.com since 2020.
STEVE A QUICK QUESTION ON A NON DERBY HORSE….WHATS UP WITH WHITE ABARRIO ? WHERE IS HE AND IS HE IN TRAINING ?
Terrible news coming out of Kentucky, a horse transport van involved in a crash outside of Louisville, Ky. They were under the care of Eddie Kenneally, so far three horses confirmed dead and four seriously injured. The dead horses’ names have not been released. The driver was injured as well and is receiving care at a Louisville hospital.
One of the horses that perished was 3 year Darkroom (Enticed) that won a race at Fairgrounfs on the 15th.
Vitement (Mizzen Mast) also 3 is so horribly injured he might not survive.
Very few horses survive accidents in horse trailers. They are very unsafe, the horses have little or no protection.
It does not take much to jackknife a trailer.
Some years ago I was hauling my horses to Georgia and almost jackknifed my trailer when some idiot two vehicles n front of me slammed on his breaks. I was 3 inches from the bumper of the horse trailer that my good friend was pulling in front of me when I finally stopped.
We both had to pull over and calm down before continuing the trip. We came so close to being seriously injured or killed as did my horses.
Condolences to the owners of the horses. Hopefully the driver will fully recover.
Hi Lynda
Hats off to you for maintaining your composure, and good to hear there were no injuries.
I join with you in offering condolences to owners of the horses that were killed in that deadly crash this morning.
There has to be a better mode of transportation for thoroughbreds, but the cost always enters into the equation.
Thanks Bill! My thoughts are with the horses.
Yes Mike, my thoughts are with the horses, Eddie Kenneally and the owners.
Very sad.
If there is a sentimental favorite in the FD it would have to be Iris’s Dream. His sire was Jess’s Dream who was by Curlin who turns 20 today and the race is named for Curlin.
Brad Cox had Just a Touch work this morning at Keeneland. He went 5f in 59.80 (1/17). Just a Touch is pointing for the Blue Grass and is coming up to the race in good order. With Sierra Leone and Dornoch in the mix, the Blue Grass should be a dandy.
Just a Touch is listed as a “possible” in the Wood as well.
He is #2 on my list.
And #1 would be?
SL
There haven’t been many upsets on the Derby Trail so far. The upsets have been modest. See below:
Mystik Dan – 11/1
Hades – 9/1
There is likely to be a major upset in one of the remaining 100 points races. There are two longshot I am focused on to use in my wagers.
AK DERBY:
WILL TAKE IT – Tapit – Lady Take Charge by War Front
Purchase Price – $700, 000 (Select Yearling)
Finished 9th in starts 1&2 (8 1/2F) beaten a combined 31 1/4L.
Start # 3 (81/2F) – With blinker & F8 removed finished 2nd by NS at 42/1
Displayed exceptional cruising speed to be in hand at top of the stretch. Also, displayed excellent closing speed to the line.
Was assigned a Equibase figure of 91. He previous best was 66.
A well-bred expensive Saratoga Select Sale yearling. That was the same status of one Flightline. If Will Take It can return with further improvement. I see no reason he cannot be competitive against this group.
Interestingly, Wisper Hill farm is part owner of the colt but it’s not in the barn of Tod Pletcher. Wise decision!
FL DERBY
CATALYTIC – Catalina Cruiser – One Show Only by Distorted Humor
Won on debut over 61/2F in a fast 1:17 plus.
Start #2 was 5 months later. In an AOC over 6F at Tampa Bay the colt raced in last, 8L off pace. The leaders were cooking upfront with 21.82; 44.58 & 56.68. Catalytic erased the 8L deficit and was full of run at the line to come up short by 3/4 in 1:09.85.
Catalytic chased extremely fast fractions coming off 5 months between starts. The fractions in the FL Derby will be nowhere as fast. The colt will therefore be able to relax and save its energy for the sprint int he lane. He might just be the fastest entrant in the field.
His sire Catalina Cruiser is very fast for a son of Belmont winner Union Rags out of a Mineshaft mare. That a stamina pedigree as opposed to for exceptional speed which what Catalina Cruiser displayed. Dam sire Distorted Humor was also dam sire of Pegasus World Cup Winners Arrogate and Art Collector.
Catalytic is also a well-bred Saratoga Select Sale yearling.
Resilience is listed as a possible for the Blue Grass, on 4-6. On Sunday, 3-24, he worked a bullet 5F, in 1:01.40 1/9, at PPTC.
Hopefully, he’ll earn enough points to make the Derby starting gate. Resilience is another one of my longshots in Futures Pool 3, that I placed a $40.00 win wager on, at 93-1.
It’s good to see that William Mott has him healthy and fit moving forward for his next start.
It looks like Brad Cox is riding Prat first now—-and Chad is using Gafflione first……
Cox will stick with his previous go to rider, Florent Geroux, on Just a Touch.
Hopefully, Flavien Prat stays on Charming Freedom. Prat is such a cool rider when horses blow the start he never panics and slowly guides the horse back into contention.
Horses I’m looking forward to seeing run this week include: Mystik Dan —who probably won’t get his rail trip from way out there, I think he may be any kind …..Conquest Warrior with his regal bearing and long strides! Fierceness, whose best is best…..and Forever Young….will he change leads this time? In the Dubai Cup I like Bob’s Newgate over the Saudi Cup 1st, 2nd, 5th place horses…..
Matthew, I’ve always enjoyed watching the big race cards from Dubai. I’ll have a pot of coffee and some danish handy while studying the pp’s with Forever Young being the focus of my attention. A great way to spend a Saturday morning.
If you haven’t seen it, there is a wonderful short history on Kabirkhan on YouTube. Search for:
Kazakhstan To The World! – The Story of Kabirkhan and his Quest for Dubai World Cup Glory
It’s about 7 minutes long, but worth it.
Gosh Davids I forgot all about him! Did you see his race in Kazakhstan? Talk about bush league! I’ll definitely use him in my exacta box! He reminds me of Chrome! .
Yes, Matthew, you quite can’t believe the horse has gone from ‘Wild West’ racing in Central Asia to the Dubai World Cup. It would be a fantastic story, so uplifting.
I noticed the Arkansas Derby has some horses toting 124 lbs, and some horses at 121…I wonder why?
My guess would be allowance conditions of the race.
For the Arkansas Derby: “WEIGHTS: Colts and Geldings 124 lbs.; Fillies 120 lbs. Non-winners of a Sweepstakes allowed 3 lbs.”
Stakes nominations clarify all conditions, weights etc.
Looking forward to a loaded ARK Derby this Saturday. I’m looking for a strong race from Liberal Arts. He,s my 46-1 Bomb from KDFW2. LA drew well from PP5, and with Tyler G. Aboard should save ground and make his run in the stretch. The longer distance and the dry track should benefit LA. I will only be using LA and Muth in my P3. Mystic Dan won’t be catching a sloppy track this time And he’s unlikely to get a rail skimming trip again. Timberlake beat a very weak Rebel field last out and he will have to reel in Muth and hold off the closing punch of LA. Common Defense missing the board in the LA Derby did not flatter Timberlake.
Yes, 1JoeP, the Rebel has little to recommend it’s significance as you mentioned above. Besides Common Defence’s average performance in the Louisiana Derby, Northern Flame who was 3rd in the Rebel was 8th in the Jeff Ruby, Woodstock 4th in the Rebel was 6th in the Jeff Ruby.
Muth looks outstanding here but Liberal Arts should place again here. Timberlake’s performance will be highly scrutinized.
Will BB use the Ark derby as Muth’s prep for the Preakness?
If Muth wins the Arkansas Derby you would think so, and if Maymun wins the Santa Anita Derby perhaps he’ll be off to the Belmont Stakes at Saratoga or possibly both.
Guess he won’t be in the Derby.
Muth defeated Pilot Command last out. Why do so many this he is an exceptional colt. Pretender Fierceness destroyed him in the BCJ.
His stride mechanics suggest 9F will be extremely challenge.
Hi Steve. The million dollar horse Top Conor had an excellent work today. One report suggested Brown has him pointed for the Wood and potentially the Preakness. He looks sharp although lightly raced.
Any thoughts on Top Conor and Browns’s plan for him.
Thanks Steve !
It is nice to learn that Knightsbridge (Nyquist – Tyburn Brook, by BERNARDINI) is making his 3-year-old debut in an Gulfstream Allowance this Thursday (6th race). He is a fitting 4/5 ML favorite against an apparent overmatched field led by Pletcher’s Cardinale and the 3rd place finisher in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes Sea Streak.
Many of us had Knightsbridge in our preferential list of prospects after his eyecatching debut last November at Churchill. The 3/4 brother to Nysos won by 10 lenghts clokcing a dazzling 1:22 4/5 for 7-furlongs. He then got a winter vacation and resumed training on January 12. There was some intermitence in his training schedule in January and early February but has been breezing steadily since February 25th with his 3 last workouts (5 f and 3 F) being bullets at Payson Park Training Center.
Bill Mott is renown for his patience and he will be more so with this May 9-foal. At any rate, the promising Godolphin colt is a most welcoming addition to a crop needing faster contestans.
Mott can get them ready off long layoffs. About a week ago, Rocket Can returned from a 10-month layoff to win an AOC race at Oaklawn. It’ll be fun to watch Knightsbridge’s progress. Pedigree says he should handle longer distances, but his half brother Speaker’s Corner was best at 7-8f.
Yes Winston… Speaker’s Corner was an exceptional miler who had to face the likes of Flightline and Life is Good.
The only time Speaker’s Corner ran 1 1/8 mile was in the Discovery Stakes where Miles D defeated him by half a length.
Speaker’s Corner was sidelined for 10 months after a key 2-year-old 7 furlong win where he defeated Caddo River, Greatest Honor, Miles D and Burbonic.
You are right about Knightsbridge endowed with stamina and the way he finished in his debut sugests he will cheerish two turn races…as you said, let’s see how he evolves after the one-mile test this Thursday …
Beautifully bred…speed and stamina.
Additional plus is no inbreeding through fifth cross.
RE: Arkansas Derby
Imperial Gun, by Gun Runner, out of an Empire Maker mare, appears to be way overmatched against the likes of Mystik Dan, Muth and Timberlake. His outside draw didn’t help matters, but Steve Asmussen must believe Imperial Gun has a shot of securing some Derby points. From my perspective, IG’s pedigree reflects a significant amount of speed, class and stamina. His sire line and broodmare sire line lead directly to Mr. Prospector, which is a plus, IMO.
In a past post, Counter Point referred to Imperial Gun as a “Modest Colt”, he could be right. However, if IG manages to finish in the money, he just might prove to be more than just a “Modest Colt.” Stay tuned.
Bill, do you know where/when Imperial Gun last ran? I checked the DRF’s winners’ book and just turned up his late December victory. Surely Asmussen wouldn’t run him in the Arkansas Derby with no prep between now and then.
Imperial Gun 3 starts
Track…………… Date ……..Race Race Type Finish
Oaklawn Park 2/24/2024…1 Allowance Optional Claiming 4
Oaklawn Park 12/31/2023..5 Maiden Special Weight 1
Oaklawn Park 12/9/2023 …8 Maiden Special Weight 4
Nelson, many thanks! So he’s started 3 times, one once, and finished 4th twice.
I think I may end up with two horses that run second, in their big Derby preps, Honor Marie and Conquest Warrior, I think Fierceness is going to run one of his biggies this Sat …
I agree with you, Matthew. I think he’s going to win. He’s certainly going to the Derby, barring mishaps or weird injuries, but who knows how he’ll run there. I suppose we’ll all feel like idiots if he wins the Kentucky Derby in spite of all the angst we’ve felt about him.
He has run two monster performances and two duds ….
Over look Fierceness at your won peril
Yes!!!! Honor Marie is in!!! Got a lot out of him in yesterday’s race. Now to his home track for the derby. I like his chances. Happy to see an Honor Code in the derby. Should have decent odds going in.
Some really nice closers this year. Could this be a year for the closers???
Tuscan Gold seem like he will love the 1 1/4 mile.
Wicked One, the 1, 2 result in the Louisiana Derby was a blessing from the racing gods but we need some descent speed horses to set the race up.
I agree! The derby does need some speed up front. I’m hoping we will get some speed in the Kentucky derby. Otherwise some of the closers may need plan b.
Hope all top contenders stay healthy and make it to the derby.
What happened to Intricate yesterday? I was so sure that she would run a big one. Faded in the stretch after being over-bet. I think that V V’s Dream is back on track. Ran 3rd in an improved effort.
Just getting in.
My Future wager on Tuscan Gold is dead. The colt gave it his best shot but came short of qualifying points. I cannot foresee Chad Brown going to the Lexington route to gain addition points. Further, he already has two in the KD. I always knew that any finish outside 1st or 2nd would render my wager a non-starter. I was so close to an extension of my fantasy wager. TC didn’t let me down as he showed and gave it his all to the line.
I wanted so much for TC to run at CD as the surface at that venue suits turf types. TC’s pedigree is laden with turf influence. His sire Medaglia D’ Oro sires mostly turf horses. His dam sire Curlin is by Smart Strike who has sired dirt, turf and synthetic progenies that have won at the highest. Deputy Minister the dam sire of Curlin goes back to Northern Dancer. I just have this sneaky feeling that Tuscan Gold’s stride mechanics would be different on the CD surface.
With only 3 stars over 3 different distances and at 3 different venues. TC has a promising future.
Guy’s
I just got a chance to watch the LA Derby several times. Tuscan Gold had some traffic issue after entering the lane. But that wasn’t what cost him 2nd or the win. In the last 15 meters Tuscan gold jumped back to his left lead and lost momentum and that enabled Honor Marie to get by for the runner up slot.
How unfortunate for the fans of TC.
I feel your pain, Counter Point. Thanks for pointing out the late lead change; that’s something I didn’t catch. Tuscan Gold will make his mark down the road, rest assured.
Keep the faith. Weird things can happen.
It’s not dead yet….horse will get the ten furlongs, and should improve….he looks like a horse that runs better in the straight, he floundered some around the far turn but never stopped trying…
Tuscan Gold only has 25 points. Six more 100-pointers to go. Looks like he won’t make it. How many points did Rich Strike get in with? You never know. Endlessly will supposedly skip the Run for the Roses. Might need 5 more defections. He could always come back in the Lexington to possibly pick up 20 points. But that doesn’t sound like something that Chad Brown would do. BB horses could eat up points in the Santa Anita Derby. There’s no guarantee that the UAE horses will come to Kentucky. Best not to worry about it. Let things sort themselves out.
I agree, very good possibility the Baffert string will eat up points in the SAD.
Good point also about the International horses. Also a wait and see who will come here and who will not.
I didn’t see a derby winning prep in the Louisiana or Jeff Ruby.
My brother says that they were running into a 20mph+ wind on the backstretch (in the Louisiana Derby). I have no idea if that is true or not, but I would think that would have an effect on final times even though it would be at their back down the lane.
Just wondering if Steve has ever heard how a stiff headwind on the backstretch effects a race. Does if favor closers? I would think it would as they might get to draft a bit.
Once again it will be interesting to see if Thoro-graph rates the race faster than Beyer and the others as TG accounts for wind… if there even was a wind issue.
I looked it up and it appears that the wind was only about 9 or 10 mph at race time. My curiosity is still stirred about the effects of running into a headwind on the backstretch, but it apparently is a moot point relative to todays Louisiana Derby.
Usually it is the cross wind which has the most impact in racing rather than head wind or tail wind as it can act like a sail. Moreover, wind impacts the uncovered runner than the body of runners.
If you watch the Tour de France the impact of wind ferocity on an uncovered cyclist is far greater.
Theres a reason we call it pulling if you are leading the pelaton. That head wind is BRUTAL. Drafting (aka riding in the pack) saves about 20% watts.
-cyclist
Yes, Diana, you can watch in such admiration for hours as a single cyclist or small group of cyclists breaks clear from the main pack then, just minutes, sometimes seconds, from the final stage the peloton swallows them up. All that effort, for naught. Sometimes they win though.
Honor Marie did not gallop out strong like he did last year, he again practically stopped, which tells me there’s a better race in him….Tuscan Gold kept on—-he is a Derby sleeper, if he gets in …the race caller mis-identified him down the backstretch, he was always right there, and was caught in tight quarters at the head of the lane—while Honor Marie was never identified in the stretch by the announcer—all in all I thought it was a good prep—
He galloped out like a beast after the KJC, but I wonder if that was just a fluke…he’s not a great work horse (more efficient than anything else), so maybe he just figured he was done for the day. How important are gallop outs anyway…
I was so pleasantly surprised that HM was second since he didn’t get any call, lol
Betsy I will watch this colt closely! We know he has not reached that form of last year, but the improvement is noted, which is a return to form and now goes back to where he ran his best race and the trainer knows how to prep a Derby horse—, there’s lots to like, and he will be around 12-1…..
Hey Matthew
He got a 96 BSF today (CF 97) so actually I’d say HM has improved – in large part because he ran well against really nice horses. He’s got loads of room to improve based on pedigree, too
12-1 odds ? I might have to make a wager on that!
This looks like a pretty wide open Derby so far…
Endlessly will skip the Derby, possibly running in the American Turf on the Derby undercard.
That was quick.
I saw it on Bloodhorse. The connections must have already had the Turf in mind.
Yes, not a hint of Derby fever.
That’s good to see. A big contrast between them and Repole and Pletcher.
Preakness.
You hit the nail on the head they’re in the Preakness…..
Very good day today: I hit the trifecta in the LA Derby; got Catching Freedom (can win $7,150 if he wins Derby) and Honor Marie (can win $2k) and Endlessly ($8k if he goes to and wins the Derby) into Derby starting gate. Now have to hope no crazy Derby week scratches and they stay healthy! My other big ones are Mystik Dan and Liberal Arts; will be pulling for big efforts for them soon…
Good for you, biggy317. Yes, the worry now is the possibility of scratches and bad posts but still,you can smile for a while.
Thanks very much, Davids; absolutely can smile and it came on a day that began with emergency vet visit in am so was definitely helpful: rabbit is all better and so am I!
Best of luck to you!
An early Easter present in more ways than one. Nothing worse than having an unwell beloved pet. Great news.
Thanks, very much, Davids; much appreciated.
Having had many emergency vet visits with my own beloved bunny, I share your relief, biggy312. So glad things turned out well!
arlingtonfan:
Thank you so much! That really means a lot!
Rabbits are the most awesome companions, but so fragile!
So true!
I am so glad that your beloved rabbit is ok. And congratulations on the big win!
Terri;
Thank you so much! I really appreciate!
Glad your rabbit is OK.
Lynda:
Thank you very much for the kind words; I really appreciate it.
Odds update at Circa: Catching Freedom was 50-1 before LA Derby; 15-1 now; Endlessly was 100-1, now 20-1…
They’ll probably shorten even further. It’ll be interesting to see where Steve places them in the latest Derby Ratings.
Congratulations!!
Wow, the Louisiana Derby was a good race to watch with an exciting finish that allowed me to cash the exacta.
For a brief minute, I thought that I had three good shots with Futures bets in the Derby when Catching Freedom (31-1 in Pool 4), Honor Marie (25-1 in Pool 3) and Tuscan Gold (81-1 in Pool 5) finished 1, 2, 3 in LA. Alas, I then realized that Tuscan Gold earned only 25 points for finishing 3rd, and that won’t be enough to get in the Derby. Too bad, because I thought he ran a very good race for a horse with just two starts, off a maiden win then jumping up to run in a Gr. 1. I was impressed with Tuscan Gold’s effort and I’m anxious to see his next race…. perhaps the Preakness?
Nevertheless, I’m happy to have Catching Freedom and Honor Marie qualify. Other qualifiers I have Futures bets on include Sierra Leone (13-1 in Pool 3) and Timberlake (15-1 in Pool 4). I need points for Just a Touch (27-1 in Pool 4) and Forever Young (34-1 in Pool 3). Can’t wait to see Forever Young in the UAE Derby next Saturday. 1st or 2nd will get him to Louisville.
Dewey, I wouldn’t be too downcast on Tuscan Gold’s 25 points and getting into the Derby, lots of runners have gotten into the Kentucky Derby with less points.
Hope you’re right, Davids, but I’m not holding my breath on that one.
Dewey, for years, starting in 2013, I kept a tally of points on a spreadsheet in an effort to do a trend analysis. Unfortunately I lost my spreadsheet and analysis when my laptop crashed so horribly that the data could not be recovered.
Anyway, going off memory here, the bubble was trending towards 40 points and the Derby winner came from the top 5 on the points leaderboard.
There is a chance, as Davids pointed out, that Tuscan Sun might make the cut but historical data would indicate that there will need to be several defections and scratches.
There are considerations to be taken into account. For the most part these colts are so very lightly raced in this 2nd decade. 50 points or some combination of points or gambling on getting enough points from the 100 point races is the trend. Then there are the new HISA regulations in effect that can eliminate any one or even several colts from racing in the Derby. Also the International races that awards points. These slots are reserved for those colts until a decision is made whether or not they will come.
If we take the previous trends that were in place until 2018 at least and the considerations I noted above, it would seem to be favorable for Tuscan Sun to make the cut though it might be a last minute kind of situation.
Trainers and owners will have decisions to make between now and race day as to whether or not they will ship to Louisville, train up to the Derby and hope for a 25 to 30 point bubble or scratches to get in the Derby or decide to run in an undercard that weekend or target the Preakness.
I have checked a couple of times this morning for an updated leaderboard but not seen it yet.
I really think that the winner of the Kentucky Derby will first be running in the Florida Derby
I agree with you, Lynda, that we’ll have to wait and see how things shake out in the next couple of weeks. There are six more preps with 100 pts + and a few horses could zoom up on the points list. Plus, as you mentioned, there are the Japanese and European routes to be considered. Which leads me to the UAE Derby…. I assume that it falls under the U.S. point route? It offers 100 pts and Forever Young will try to earn his way in with a 1st or 2nd finish.
I did find the updated KY Derby point standings on BloodHorse. Tuscan Gold is currently ranked #18. There’s no wiggle room here and unless there is a slew of defections, I’d say his chances of even making the AE list are slim.
Fingers (and toes) crossed!
From DRF:
1 Catching Freedom Brad Cox 125 $802,000
2 Endlessly Mike McCarthy 100 $658,000
3 Track Phantom Steve Asmussen 70 $300,000
4 West Saratoga Larry Demeritte 67 $363,640
5 Timberlake Brad Cox 66 $1,053,750
6 Honor Marie Whit Beckman 65 $448,455
7 Dornoch Danny Gargan 60 $425,500
8 Domestic Product Chad Brown 60 260,500
9 Sierra Leone Chad Brown 55 $290,000
10 Deterministic Christophe Clement 50 $165,000
11 No More Time Jose D’Angelo 45 194,380
12 Common Defense Kenny McPeek 37 $253,450
13 Fierceness Todd Pletcher 36 $1,069,500
14 El Grande O Linda Rice 30 $151,000
15 Seize the Grey Wayne Lukas 27 $100,663
16 Stronghold Phil D’Amato 25 $292,800
17 Le Dom Bro Eniel Cordero 25 106,000
18 Tuscan Gold Chad Brown 25 $100,000
19 Just a Touch Brad Cox 25 $60,000
20 Mystik Dan Kenny McPeek 21 $418,800
Dewey, I wouldn’t rule out TG getting in the derby with just 25 points or any of your other picks. There are so many variables at play. This is what I’ve come up with in finding the last horse to qualify for each of the derbies since 2013 (not including the Sept 2020 running):
2023: King Russell, 40 points, finished 15th in Ky Derby
2022: Rich Strike, 21 points, finished 1st
2021: Brooklyn Strong, 10 points, finished 15th
2019: Bodexpress, 40 points, finished 14th
2018: Instilled Regard, 29 points, finished 4th
2017: Sonneteer, 30 points, finished 16th
2016: Mo Tom, 32 points, finished 8th
2015: Frammento, 20 points, finished 11th
2014: Commanding Curve, 20 points, finished 2nd (Harry’s Holiday and Vinceremos also had 20 points)
2013: Giant Finish, 10 points, finished 10th
We have six more 200-point preps to go, with Baffert horses eating points, horses that already have enough points getting even more points, defections due to injury or poor performance, and foreign invitations taking one or two spots. Anything can happen. Congrats on the exacta. I had a four-horse exacta box with Catching Freedom, Honor Marie, Common Defense, and Antiquarian. My WPS bet on Antiquarian was doomed as he broke through the gate, then bumped into his stablemate at the start. But I’m happy with the exacta. And I have only two Future Wagers: Catching Freedom (26-1) and Stronghold (80-1) in Pool 5.
Thanks for the feedback, Winston. It’s hard to believe that 10 points in ’21 and ’13 were enough to get in the starting gate. There must have been a lot of injuries those years.
Glad you hit the Catching Freedom/Honor Marie exacta. It paid a bit more than I expected. Nice future bet on Stronghold. I see he also has 25 points. Where do you think he runs next to get more points? Good luck!
Dewey, I read that Stronghold is probable for the Santa Anita Derby. He’s based in California.
In 2021, Concert Tour, Panadol, Weyburn, Crowded Trade, Proxy, and Rombauer were withdrawn from consideration after their final preps. I’m sure there were others prior to the final round.
Dewey, in the 2013 Kentucky Derby Giant Finish with 10 points got into the Derby because 20 horses who had more points were w
withdrawn from consideration. That is the year that Golden Soul who ran 2nd to Orb got in with 14 points.
In 2014, Commanding Curve, Vincermos and Harlan’s Holiday all got in because 8 horses were removed from consideration. Commanding Curve as I recall ran 2nd to California Chrome.
I did some checking on the odds on the entries for the UAE Derby and Forever Young is favored to win at 6/4; Pandagate, Henry Adams are 8/1; George Tesero 9/1 and Mendelssohn Bay 12/1.
The odds on Henry Adams have tightened since I last checked. He is expected to make a good showing.
Catching Freedom finally gets it all together, we’ll almost, and Honor Marie runs home for second, just the way I’d hoped and Tarifa wins the Fair Ground Oaks to top it off. Sunshine as well.
Yes, Davids, the racing gods were smiling on New Orleans today. A great day of racing all around, including Turfway’s card. Endlessly was very impressive winning the Jeff Ruby Steaks. Geez, my mouth’s watering for one of JR’s steaks right now. lol
Yes, Dewey, Endlessly really impressed me as well. Could be a real danger in the Kentucky Derby. Nonetheless, the racing gods were kind to us today.
Will we be looking at a battle of the Super-Stables on May 4th? A few Browns, a couple from Brad C, and a few Pletchers? Who’s missing? BB won’t be invited to this Battle Royale. A shame.
Florida Derby, UAE Derby, and the Arkansas Derby next Saturday. I know of at least one Japanese horse that will be looking for points.
The plot thickens. A great time of year for horse players.
I’ve always been a sucker for deep closers, Catching Freedom certainly fits that description.
With Catching Freedom winning the Louisiana Derby, I’ve got another Derby Futures Pool 3 longshot that will make the Derby starting gate. I’ve got a $40.00 win wager on CF, at 28-1, and keyed him on top with my other eleven longshots underneath in a $2.00 exacta p/w wager.
As it stands now, Deterministic and CF will make the Derby starting gate, and I have high hopes that Tuscan Sky, Resilience and Imperial Gun will earn enough points to qualify for the Derby as well. I doubt if my remaining 7 longshots will make the KD starting gate.
On March 19th, I posted a comment to Steve that read as follows: “In my view, Catching Freedom is one horse that could run Track Phantom down in the deep stretch.” On that same posting, I stated that I expected a strong performance by Endlessly, which should propel him into the top 15 on Derby Rankings – Week 10. The question is where will Endlessly wind up on Week 10?
I’ve been on Endlessly early on. Don’t think McCarthy is going to try the dirt. Boy was that an easy race for him today. Just cruises and looked explosive again
Congratulations on having the La. Derby winner in your future bets, Bill. He’s one of my favorites from early on the Derby Trail, but I’ve barely had time to process EITHER of today’s races between NCAA games. Watched them both during half-time of UNC v. Michigan St., a barn-burner if there ever was one.
Thanks, Ms Blacktype.
Yeah, I always look forward to March Madness. I’m pulling for my San Diego Aztecs against Yale, tomorrow.
Spectacular win of Catching Freedom and an outstanding runner-up effort by Honor Marie… both broke the 4-year-old trend of frontrunners dominating the Louisiana Derby. Falvian Prat and Ben Curtis were really formidable rallying from last and next to last coming to the home stretch…
Their jump in Thoro-Graph numbers must be extraordinary as they both rallied 8 or 9 wide…
I just hope they will encounter a fast pace to better close over in the Derby.
Also, hope for Real Men Violin and all the other horses are sound after their efforts today…
Same tune, different day regarding Moss, Baily taking digs at winner for not having fast enough time. Lol
A pretty good day for Brad C: Nash, First Mission, Tarifa, and Catching Freedom.
I wouldn’t give up on Tuscan Gold. He kept to his task and is still improving. I know of one poster on here that likes him. I do too now. A nice looking horse. I hope he has enough points to make it into the Derby. Chad Brown could be locked and loaded for the first Saturday in May.
I was wrong about Endlessly. Much the best today. He looked like a standout on paper and ran like it on the track. He might skip the Derby in favor of the Preakness for which he has already earned an entry.
A 5-horse San Luis Rey is very disappointing.
There is still one more Derby Future Wager at the beginning of April. Since Tuscan Gold didn’t win today, he might still be a decent price. Not 87-1, but decent. 20-1+ maybe. I like the looks of him so much that I might risk a few bucks if it looks like he might get into the Derby.
Godolphin got a 100% strike rate with its Stakes horses. Nash and First Mission won very easily the Hot Springs Stakes and the Essex Handicap at Oaklawn.
Tarifa won the Fair Grounds Oaks and will be in the Kentucky Oaks.
Tuscan Gold proved to have a brilliant future indeed by coming only 2 lengths behind Catching Freedom in his only third start. The son of Medaglia d’Oro got 25 points which might not be enough… not sure how much fever his connections have but they may try the 20 points of the Keeneland Stakes ..it would depend of course on the numbers of the other qualified horses ….
Tarifa is a lovely filly.
Very happy for Godolphin.
Good day for Honor Marie as well.
I cannot recall Pletcher ever having such a bad year, with three year olds—normally he is the prep king—not so this year..
Yes, Matthew, it’s been a reversal of fortunes this year and Fierceness looks vulnerable even in a very modest Florida Derby.
Davids, I do not believe it will be a “very modest Florida Derby” this year. I think the winner of the Kentucky Derby will most probably be running in the Florida Derby.
I think that Pletcher has been under increased scrutiny after he had multiple medication violations last year. It could be that some top horses have gone to other trainers.
Terri, what I mean by ‘modest’ is that there is only one 2024 stakes winner in the field. Usually, the Florida Derby is glittery with stakes wins in their last performances. I’m hoping for some sparkle to fly in the Florida Derby.
The Kentucky Derby needs a good speed horse to come to the fore. At this stage, most of the good colts appear to be closers which could allow the average front runners to really slow the Derby down and make it a sprint home which will disadvantage all the good closers.
Really thrilled with Honor Marie – perfect prep. Good race – both really good colts.
He’s in, Betsy! And he loves Churchill! I never thought Catching Freedom would outfinish him, but I noticed Ben Curtis was having to get into him at the half mile pole, so–he has a better race, and it just may be his next—trainer knows how to get a horse ready for the Derby, and Honor Marie is in!
Keep an eye out for Tuscan Gold.
Do you think 25 points will be enough to get him in the Derby, Steve?
Agree on Tuscan Gold. Remarkable that he held on after that outside placement on the backside. He will get got a lot out of this race. While I like the first two, Tuscan Gold with his running style may be a better fit for the Derby (if he gets in).
I’m so happy! I was in the car so I only heard the call – I thought HM finished well back because he didn’t get a call down the stretch, lol
He’d only had 1 race going into this, so this should set him up perfect for KY. I liked that he wasn’t as far back as last time…
Never hurts to love CD!
Beckman has dona a fantastic job with HM….
So happy that HC has left us a few nice ones..
Thrilled that Honor Marie is in!!!
Me too!
Me three!
Don’t jinx him!
Betsy, some race, they are both in. The gloomy Derby preps have finally come alive.
David, so happy about that – there were some really nice horses in that race, and they haven’t peaked yet, either.
That’s right, Betsy. Primed perfectly for a run at the Derby. Fingers crossed they stay healthy over the next few weeks.
Well, my 8 year old son chose Catching Freedom for the LA Derby, so he’s on cloud 9 right now. I was on Honor Marie, so between the two of us we managed the exacta!
Congratulations!!!
Rah for Endlessly! I was delighted with his win. Also pleasantly surprised by Seize the Grey. And happy that Honor Marie finished second in the Louisiana Derby!
Congratulations to Red Route One.
Love seeing these colts come back and race at 4 and win!
Wonderful! And old favorite from a previous Derby trail entering his own as a 4-year-old.
YES!!
RE: Louisiana Derby
Real Men Violin needs to finish at least 2nd to make the KD starting gate. If you draw a line through his unimpressive performance in the Risen Star, he has finished in the money in six of seven career starts. Based on RMV’s second place finish in the KJC race, won by Honor Marie, I like his chances to be right there in the late going in the La. Derby.
Bottom line, if you like Honor Marie, then RMV deserves major consideration as well.
Kenneth McPeek has changed riders, going with Corey Lanerie aboard RMV, instead of Brian Hernandez who will ride Common Defense. Based on RMV’s last three works, he appears to be ready for a strong performance in the La. Derby.
I’ve got a $40.00 win wager on RMV, at 123-1, in Derby Futures Pool 3. Fingers crossed.
I second that assessment Bill … I know that MckPeek is very effective second off the layoff. Also Real Men Violin offers the great value at 15 or more to 1 today…
My Trifecta box reads:
12 Track Phantom wheeled with
2 Hall of Fame/3 Antiquarian/5 Catching Freedom/7 Honor Marie/9 Real Men Violin
Good luck in all your bets today and for your Derby future ones as well…!
Thanks, Nelson, and good luck to you as well.
I was intrigued by Nelson Maan’s analysis yesterday of the Louisiana Derby, particularly as it relates to Pletcher’s LD history and current entries. Today’s race has a bunch of mid-pack and deep closers and just one front-running type who has the outside post. Dirt routes at Fairgrounds aren’t typically favorable to closers, though the past week has at least seen a couple get the job done.
Nelson said that Antiquarian’s background is somewhat similar to last year’s LD winner Kingsbarns, which is accurate. But there are also similarities to 2018 LD winner Noble Indy, who was also trained by Pletcher and ridden by Velazquez. Noble Indy won the LD by pressing the early leader, just as I expect Antiquarian to do. (It needs to be said, however, that the early leader in 2018 was a huge longshot.)
Antiquarian lost his debut in January to Conquest Warrior by half a length. It was CW’s second career race, and he returned to win an allowance race at Gulfstream. In Antiquarian’s next race, he defeated Cornishman by a length. Cornishman returned to break his maiden over the highly regarded Gun Party. Antiquarian has faced only maidens in his two races, but those events were clearly not ordinary maiden races.
On March 8, Pletcher sent Antiquarian for a workout at Palm Beach Downs, and the colt delivered a bullet time of 1:00 1/5. That is an unusually fast workout for a Pletcher horse at that training track. Is Antiquarian entered as a rabbit for Agate Road? I can’t imagine that the folks at Centennial Farms would agree to that strategy.
With so many more accomplished runners in the LD, I expect Antiquarian to go off at odds higher than his 12-1 morning line. I’m thinking WPS and some yet-to-be-determined exactas. The Risen Star was the best field so far in this year’s derby preps. The LD is a match for that race, considering that six of the runners are in today’s headliner. I can’t wait!
Todd Pletcher’s horses shouldn’t be trusted.
Thanks Winston for referring to my post. You are right about Noble Indy also being a “rookie” in relative terms albeit his 3rd in the Risen Star prior to his LD win.
The undertone of the post is the kind of latent battle between the experienced hopefuls (i.e. the ones with 2-year-old experience in Stakes or otherwise) and the brilliant horses debuting in January and February. If you allow me I would say that the threshold was established by Justify who debuted on February 18th …
Antiquarian’s time for his 1 1/16-mile win in the Risen Star undercard is comparable to that of Track Phantom in the Risen Star… and I wanted to mention Cornishman good-looking win next out but the post was long already…
if Johny V is able to chase the pace using Antiquarian “natural rhythm” then he will be tough in the end. Starting to the right of Hall of Fame will be good for a quick assessment of the initial set up of the race. Working for Antiquarian’s favor for sure is the acute instincts of his HoF Jockey…
Best luck with Antiquarian… and safe run to all.
Thank you, Nelson. Good luck to you as well. I really do enjoy your insightful and well-researched contributions.
Is the Louisiana Derby setting up for a Quality Road exacta? Looks pretty strong with a classy loose on the lead horse and a strong closer. Might be a smart bet.
Definitely a possibility. The 4-12 Exacta. I’d box them. Todd Pletcher liked Louisiana better than Kentucky for Agate Road. I thought that Agate Road looked like a standout in the Jeff Ruby Steaks Stakes. But who am I to question the Hall of Famer?
Scratched by blue 😉
Listed below are the times recorded for 8 1/2F at various venues by the top contenders.
Track Phantom
MSW – CD; 81/2 ————-1:44.72 (track – Fast) EF – 94
Gun Runner – F; 81/2F——-1:44.42 (track – Fast) EF – 100
Lecomte – FG; 81/2F———1;44.73 (track – Fast) EF – 93
Hall Of Fame
MSW – CD; 81/2F————-1:44.27 (track – Fast) EF 97
Antiquarian
MSW – CD; 81/2F————-1:45.73 (sloppy/sealed) EF – 84
Catching Freedom
Smarty Jones- FG; 81/2F—–1:44.59 (track – Fast) EF – 97
Honor Marie
KJC Stales – CD; 81/2———1:44.31 (track – Fast) EF – 98
Common Defense
Rebel- OK; 81/2F———– —1:44.00 (2nd by 2L) (track – Fast) EF – 102
Tuscan Gold
MSW – GP; 81/2F—————1:46.42 (Track Fast) EF -83
Common Defense with his 2nd by 2L to Timberlake appear to have the fastest time for 8 1/2F in the field. Tuscan Gold has the slowest time (1:46.42) for the distance and the lowest Equibase figure. Is the Chad Brown colt really that slow? he was defeated by 4 1/2L over 8F completed in 1:36 plus. The mile split for his MSW win was 1:39 plus.
What has been done to the Gulfstream Park surface that has made it so slow? The Holy Bull was completed in 1:46.07. But it’s not only the surface at GP. The surfaces at CD, FG & OK have all produced slow times for 8 1/2F. Is this crop generally slow?
Based purely on the best time and best Equibase figure in the field. Common Defense appears to be the entrant to beat. To further make the case that he is the entrant to beat. A comparison of Common Defense’s Equibase figure for his 2nd in the Rebel and Dornoch’s win in the FOY, reveals both colts were assigned 102.
Despite the slow times being recorded at Gulfstream Park over 8 1/2F. Dornoch was able to record one of the fastest in the FOY i.e., 1:43.64 If he were in the LA Derby, he would have been the ML favorite.
Someone at DRF must be reading your posts. Today’s headline at the DRF site is “Tuscan Gold could get his star turn in the Louisiana Derby”. I wish I had $200 to win on him in the KD Future Wager. 1-800-GAMBLER.
The horse looks pretty good in the accompanying picture. Like he means business.
Storm Boy runs third, gets beaten by Lady of Camelot and Coleman in the Golden Slipper Stakes for Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott. Lady of Camelot was second in the Blue Diamond Stakes previously.
Storm Boy missed the start and ran in the wrong part of the track which is deadly in ‘the Slipper’. Storm Boy has the Group 1 ATC Sires’ Produce Stakes and the Group 1 Champagne Stakes to redeem his stature.
Waterhouse and Bott train both Lady of Camelot and Storm Boy. Go Gai. Exciting day of racing in Sydney.
They’ve been flip-flopping jockeys on Storm Boy too many times this year. What’s the saying…don’t change horses in midstream…jockeys in this case.
AP was beaten by Keen Ice in the Travers. AP had previously defeated Keen Ice in the KD, Belmont and Haskell.
It’s a horse race and on any given race day a free square favorite can be beaten.
I was at York when Brigadier Gerard was upset by Roberto in the Benson and Hedges Gold Cup, later renamed the International Stakes.
I’ve watched that race many times on YouTube. You can actually hear the people gasp when they realized Brigadier Gerard wasn’t going to win.
I was only a very young lad at the time but I remember my uncle assuring me that, “that was not the real Brigadier Gerard.” Which somewhat confused me at the time. He also explained to me what Mrs Hislop meant when she referred to “Roberto having taken off as if a bee had stung him.”
I knew nothing about foreign racing at that time. I was at Saratoga that day, and looking at my program, I was surprised and disappointed to see that Braulio Baeza, my all-time favorite jockey whom I still consider the best I’ve ever seen, didn’t have any mounts. I learned from the Racing Form that he was in England to ride Roberto against a horse who had never been beaten and probably never could be. I was not happy. But between races Dave Johnson called for everyone’s attention and announced that John Galbreath’s Roberto had won the Benson and Hedges Gold Cup. I joined everyone else in applauding. A few years later I saw the trophy at the National Museum of Racing. After I learned more about the event, I’m sure it was traumatic for the fans of Brigadier Gerard, and I sympathize. But for me it’s still a happy memory.
Jiffy, I never knew that which made me smile, a bit. Ha ha Steve reminded me that, with Brigadier Gerard losing, Ribot’s unbeaten record stays more prominent. So there are some compensations in a loss.
I never knew Ribot as a race horse, but I loved him as a sire. I’ve always had a preference for distance horses, and he knew how to produce them. His unbeaten record is also remarkable.
Sorry Storm Boy didn’t get his win, Davids. I recorded 5 hours of racing overnight, but missed the Slipper by an hour. Saw a nice win in the Galaxy, however. Rosehill looks like a lovely track.
That’s ‘the Slipper’ Ms Blacktype, you miss the start, you have little or no chance of winning. Yes, Rosehill is a lovely little track but the Sydney Turf Club want to sell it so 25,000 apartments can be built there because they have blundered financially.
The filly Lady Camelot wins the Golden Slipper over a 62 to 1 longshot Coleman.
Storm Boy lost every chance after a tardy start.
Those Australian ladies are really tough…!
*Lady Of Camelot
2yo b Filly
Sire: Written Tycoon
Dam: Miss Debutante
Dam Sire: Fastnet Rock
Trainer: G Waterhouse & A Bott
Jockey: Blake Shinn
Lady of Camelot just dug in an was not going to let the boys get past her.
Totally agree, the Aussie mares are something else.
Congratulations to the connections!
While waiting for the highly anticipated show down between Storm Boy and Switzerland in the Golden Slipper I noticed the international flavor that Jockey Ben Curtis is introducing to the Louisiana Derby.
Newcomer Jockey Ben Curtis will be very motivated to win the Louisiana Derby with Honor Marie. The 34-year-old international rider won 1192 races overseas over 14 years mainly in Ireland and UK and is renowned for his knack running on all weather tracks. He has also won 15 dirt races in the UAE.
Ben Curtis’ Stakes stats reads 2 placings in Group 1 races, 2 wins and 5 seconds in Group 2 races, 8 wins and 14 places in Group 3 races.
The Irish jockey has been very productive since arriving in New Orleans last October for the Fair Grounds meet. He has won 41 races out of 243 starts (17% winning rate). Curtis had four wins in the 8-race card at Fair Grounds last Wednesday. Three were on dirt. He has proven his talent on horses with every running style.
If Ben Curtis is able to pull off a win with the deep closer Honor Marie it would be a turning point for him that could lead to a longer American stint.
Honor Marie are in good hands the great international hands of Ben Curtis…
I have been touting Tuscan Gold for basically three reasons:
(1) His pedigree cross involving Medaglia D’ Oro over the M. Prospector broodmare line has produced some noteworthy champions.
(2) Curlin as a modern era sire has a record second to none, despite not siring a KD winner. Two of his sons have been the sires of consecutive KD winners. Thus, adding sire of sires to his already impressive resume. He is the bottom half of a very successful cross that produced Tuscan Gold. I have a hunch that with Tuscan Gold the great stallion has an opportunity to add to his legacy by becoming the broodmare sire of a KD winner.
(3) Medaglia D Oro must be in the twilight of his career and nearing being pensioned. It’s not very often he is represented on the KD Trail. He covered a mare sired by a fellow Belmont runner up who is likewise a successful stallion. The two in combination should be capable of producing a KD winner.
COMMON DEFENSE
If my focus wasn’t Tuscan Gold due to my KDFP wager. It would be on the captioned colt. I recommended using this colt in the Rebel and he justified my confidence with 2ND place finish @27/1. Surprisingly, this colt didn’t make Steve’s cut of 15.
Honor Marie was defeated by the #1 ranked Sierra Leone by 8L, and he made the cut. Common Defense was defeated by 2L by the #2 ranked Timberlake and didn’t make the cut. Interesting!
The subject colt’s pedigree and his last out performance makes his ML of 6/1 overly generous. His Equibase figure for his Rebel effort was a surprising 102. That was 19 points higher than his previous best.
The colt’s sire Karakontie produced a scintillating stretch run, closing from 10 of 12 to win the 2014 BC Mile in a fast 1:32.88. Street Cry the dam sire of Common Defense sired Street Sense who closed from 19L of the pace to win the 2007 KD. The great mare Zenyatta needs no introduction as she was deadly deep closer. Street Cry is a serious source of stamina as reflected in his two Melbourne Cup winners Whobegotyou and Shocking.
This Ken McPeek entrant made all his starts at O K Park. Why not stick to the surface the colt is accustomed? Could the long stretch at the Fair Grounds be the reason for the decision to contest the LA Derby? Irrespective of the reasons, this colt should be running late and given the closing speed and stamina synonymous with his pedigree. He is likely to be the one to catch or hold off at the line.
Common Defense two works since the Rebel have been the fastest of his career. (5F in 1:00.80 & 59.60) The colt has a foaling date of January 25th. The last January foal to win the KD was Grindstone. He is also the last LA Derby winner to win the KD. Could Common Defense be the next?
Muth is heading to the ARK Derby. Timberlake is already in with points. Mystic Dan and Liberal Arts need a third or better to get in. I believe LA can turn the tables on MD and can beat Timberlake who won a very weak Rebel. Hoping LA can beat one of the big 3 in the ARK Derby to punch his ticket to Louisville by finishing in the money. Muth is ineligible for the Derby but is the one to beat in the ARK Derby.
Isn’t Timberlake the one to beat? He won the Rebel this year and the Champagne last year.
No doubt!
Liberal Art is likely to emerge the winner. I am of the opinion the colt is top shelf.
I just read that Agate Road has been scratched from the Jeff Ruby and will run in the Louisiana Derby instead.
Over the years, Hinkel Farms has gained the reputation of a first-class breeding operation. During that time, the Hinkle family have assembled an impressive group of broodmares that they breed with top stallions. One of their broodmares, Seeking Gabrielle, was bred to Uncle Mo, which resulted in the birth of Nyquist, in 2015. Nyquist needs no introduction, but it’s interesting to note that he was an “Alpha Male”. His owner, J. Paul Reddam once stated, “He’s the “Alpha Male” in the barn of about 80 horses, he throws a fit unless he gets his breakfast first.” Nyquist checked all the boxes, of the seven characteristics of an “Alpha Male”, IMO.
More recently, another broodmare at Hinkle Farms, Giulio’s Jewel, was bred to Liam’s Map, which resulted in the birth of Deterministic in 2021. By all indications, Deterministic appears to be an “Alpha Male”.
Is it just by chance that two “Alpha Males” were bred at Hinkle Farms, or was it the care and development, (nurturing if you will) by the Hinkle family? I believe it was the latter.
I have full confidence in Cristophe Clement’s ability to do what it takes to keep Deterministic healthy and fit moving forward on the Derby trail. It appears that Clement has him pointed to the Wood Memorial, on April 6th, we’ll see.
Bill, maybe Steve can find out if Determnistic pitches a fit if he doesn’t get breakfast first.
Maybe.
Jockey change may come up for Deterministic, Rosario is also on Track Phantom. I picked him in a Derby contest, hope he shows up. I also like Mystik Dan, Hades and Agate Road.
Rosario understands he has one of the top contenders on the KD trail. Why would he jump off at this point?
I would be willing to bet my bottom dollar that he remains aboard Deterministic in all future races.
He’s been good on both, hard to say who the other jockey will be.
I was teasing.
Everyone a comic,right? Possibly like Honor Marie. Good luck Bill.
The 1st & 2nd place finishers in the Gotham are last out MSW winners. The next step for both is a 100 points KD Prep. Should both progress to the KD. What’s the prospect of either emulating Mage with a KD win with only 3 starts?
A KD winner with only 3 starts in successive years is a bit of history is possible if a particular entrant is extremely exceptional but is still difficult to envisage.
Tuscan Gold is in a similar position. But his KDFP final odds was over 80/1. Just a Touch and Deterministic odds were much lower.
I believe Asmussen horses will be controlling the pace in the Louisiana Derby. It is possible the HoF trainer will have Track Phantom rating behind the early speed as he did with Epicenter in the 2022 edition. Track Phantom chasing the frontrunners from the outside may prove very helpful for his chances.
It is expected a fast track at Fair Grounds tomorrow which I feel plays out in favor of Track Phantom just because he has lost the two times he ran on sloppy tracks…
Hall of Fame needs to be aggressive starting by the rail to have the best trip possible. He will likely be under early pressure from Antiquarian, Next Level and perhaps by Tuscan Gold who needs to ensure a good early position breaking from post position 11.
Hall of Fame looked ready to bounce back after his last work out in company with undefeated and Fair Grounds Oak contender Our Pretty Woman. The son of Gun Runner looked to be going easier than the filly to complete 5 furlongs in a flashy 1:01 on March 11.
Track Phantom worked with Card Trick 5 furlongs in 1:01 3/5 last Saturday… it seemed like they were making Track Phantom rate behind the other colt but the son of Quality Road did not appear comfortable changing leads coming off the bend. Prior to this drill, Track Phantom also struggled with his leads while working (on March 3) with Hall of Fame who looked more professional. Nonetheless, both galloped out pretty well after clocking 5 furlongs in 1:02 3/5.
Since 2020 when the LA Derby distance was extended to 1 3/16 mile it was thought that the closers would be favored but the fact is that those 4 last winners were fast horses who did win it in wire to wire fashion (or close to the pace as Epicenter did).
I am inclined to go by that trend and look for solid pacemakers to win the Louisiana Derby…
Todd Pletcher is the winningest trainer of the Louisiana (LA) Derby with 5 wins since 2007. So, how his previous winners compare to his current LA Derby hopefuls (Antiquarian and Agate Road)?
Starting with his first LA Derby winner in 2007, Circular Quay, we should highlight that the son of Thunder Gulch was the second best 2-year-old behind champion Street Sense. In fact, Circular Quay was the favorite in the BC Juvenile thanks to an outstanding campaign that included winning the Bashford Manor and the Hopeful Stakes to remain undefeated in 3 starts. He then was second in the Breeder’s Futurity as the 2/5 favorite after a troublesome trip and had another unlucky run next out as the 3/1 favorite in the BC Juvenile. Circular Quay was pinched badly at the start leaving him running a lengthy last the first half mile and going five wide the last turn while Street Sense closed strongly in a gainful rail trip to defeat him by 10 lengths.
The bad luck kept haunting Circular Quay in his 3-year-old debut in the Risen Star Stakes. He was again the unluckiest odds-on favorite when his closing rally was literally stopped by a fallen horse coming off the last turn. In a really dazzling display he was able to regain strides and hastily pass five horses in the stretch to finish 5th. The powerful deep closer Circular Quay had at last an uneventful run to win the Louisiana Derby. Circular Quay was the favorite in all his seven starts before the Derby and he also was among the four 2-year-old Grade 1 winners who reached the first jewel of the Triple Crown for the Hall of Fame trainer.
Interesting stats is that out of Pletcher’s 64 Derby runners only 11 did not run as 2-year-olds with 8 of those newcomers coming over the last 9 years. It is a representative sample of how racing has changed over the last decade…
The other four Louisiana Derby winners for Todd Pletcher had the following campaign prior to that Grade 2 Derby prep:
Mission Impazible had run 4 times (two as 2-year-old) including third places in the Kentucky Juvenile Stakes and in the Southwest Stakes.
Revolutionary ran 4 times with one impressive maiden win as a 2-year-old and won the Withers Stakes in his 3-year-old debut.
Noble Indy had 3 starts (one as a 2-year-old) with 2 wins and a third in the Risen Star.
Finally, last year, KIngsbarns, with no 2-year-old campaign, undefeated in 2 starts was the most inexperienced winner of the LA Derby (sharing this record with High Limit and By My Standards going straight from maiden to Stakes).
Kingsbarns (mile) maiden race at Gulfstream and his Tampa Allowance wins were so fast that gave Flavian Prat all the confidence to win the LA Derby wire to wire. However, we should mention that the son of Uncle Mo profited from being the only solid frontrunner and he was also the beneficiary of favorite Instant Coffee not running his race that day… in fact, the son of Bolt D’Oro was sidelined for 11 months after that dud…
As you can presume, Pletcher is pushing the envelope with Antiquarian as the son of Preservationist lacks Stakes experience or Allowance qualification for that matter. A positive point going on for Antiquarian though is his proven affinity to Fair Grounds. He looked really good breaking his maiden there at 1 1/16 mile in a respectable 1:45 3/5 finishing the last 1/16 mile in 6 2/5 seconds.
About Agate Road we can tell that his pedigree is mostly conceived for the dirt. His dam, Yellow Agate, is a Grade 1 winner on dirt (Frizzete S.) by Wood Memorial winner Gemologist. You may remember that the son of Tiznow entered the Derby as undefeated in 5 dirt starts. Also, Agate Road’s sire Quality Road got his best offspring on dirt races.
At this stage, Antiquarian is close to Kingbarn’s background and Agate Road is more akin to Circular Quay’s credentials.
Nevertheless, it is a tall order for Antiquarian given the Stakes quality of many of their LA Derby rivals. On the other hand, Irad Ortiz on Agate Road will take full advantage of the long Fair Grounds long stretch. Pletcher got a good hand with his frontrunner and deep closer.
However, if you allow me a bold prediction, I would say that Steve Asmussen will likely tie Pletcher with his fifth LA Derby win this Saturday… let speed rule!
Even if the Louisiana Derby should not work for Pletcher he still has Fierceness, Tuscan Sky, Triple Espresso, Noted, Be You, Moonlight, Heartened, and even Khanate to attempt safeguarding his usual quote of Derby duos or trios. He got five more 150-point Stakes for first and second places, and the 20-point Lexington Stakes to try.
Then it would be another story after the Derby door opens for Pletcher…
Steve Asmussen looks to have the early one/two speed tomorrow, looking like Track Phantom gets the lead while Hall of Fame sits right behind…..
That was my expectations as well … but somehow the Roadster/Game Winner finish in the Santa Anita Derby keeps playing in my mind as happening again with the two Asmussen hopefuls…i.e. Hall of Fame takes the much needed points and Track Phantom would run more relaxed to add stress-free points to his already accrued 55 points…
Let’s see if everything goes as planned for the powerful barn… breaking a step slow would change everyting…!
I enjoyed reading your post, Nelson, if not the scenario you envisioned. Ha ha Good luck, though.
It’s all about ‘the Slipper, mate’ here. Go, Storm Boy!!
….and the Australian Grand Prix – Formula 1. and the Melbourne International Flower & Garden Show.
I was right up against the rail, Roadster came from last place —there was no shenanigans that day, Rosario was all into Game Winner….I think Track Phantom will have the lead tomorrow, I don’t think they would stiff him, to allow Hall of Fame to aquire points, it’s a full field ….
I did not mean turning tables by shenanigans but by Hall of Fame going back to his impressive maiden win (albeit with Lasix). I liked the son of Gun Runner in the Risen Star and I am not dismissing him tomorrow. I believe Santana should have been more decisive with him in going for the lead after breaking first instead the jockey took him back and made things much harder from there with a wall of horses ahead…!
Again no dirty tricks but it would be the case of “the other one” running better than the more fancied one for the same trainer… you must have seen a lot of those in your experience…
I’m thinking Steve A told Santana to not go out with Track Phantom …he broke good but was wrangled back—-it may happen like that again tom….
I’m on the Agate Road bandwagon.
TPs made his entry into the KD in 2000 with 4 starters. It took him 11 years to secure his first KD win.
It is the opinion of many that Super Saver’s win was aided and abetted by the misfortune suffered by Lookin At Lucky and Ice Box. He wasn’t the best entrant in the field and was fortunate to come away with the win, which proved to be his last before the usually early retirement of horses from TP’s barn.
Another 7 years six years would elapse before TP secured his 2nd KD winner. The postrace opinions were similar to his 1st winner. Always Dreaming’s win was aided and abetted by the misfortune suffered by Classic Empire. He was fortunate to come away with the win which like Super saver was his last.
Todd Pletcher has proven repeatedly he can qualify linty youngsters for the KD. However, history reflects very few are incapable of not finishing amongst the also ran.
Given TP’s abysmal KD record, there is absolutely no fear of his annual multiple entry assault on the race.
Endlessly looks tough on paper in the Jeff Ruby Steaks Stakes. Especially, against what I would call a 2nd tier group of Road to the Derby horses. No offense. He’s won 4 of 5. Still, I don’t care for the field that he beat at Golden Gate in his win over Tapeta. I’ll try to beat him with one of the horses with more speed. Northern Flame or Lucky Jeremy. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a huge longshot pull off an upset. I keep looking at Dancing Groom. His last was dreadful, but he had no chance at Gulfstream with his style of running. $700k up for grabs.
With most of the attention on Turfway and Fair Grounds on Saturday, Brad C is sneaking Nash and First Mission into Oaklawn. Both horses trying to find themselves. Both are favored in their races.
Red Route One is entered at Fair Grounds on Saturday. I’ve always looked at him as a bit of a disappointment. He’s only won 3 times in 17 starts. However, he’s banked over $1.2million. Not bad. New found respect for the Steve Asmussen trainee. Keep bringing in those checks, buddy.
I very much like War Campaign, and how Phillip Sims has brought him along, for The Essex tomorrow…..
I tried to post that I like War Campaign tomorrow, I was censored, perhaps it was because of the stakes race ‘s name?…Who knows, but I like how he has been handled ….
Haven’t respected Asmussen since connections cooked RA as three year old.
Sometime handicapping requires the asking and answering of questions by a party of one.
Why did a trainer of Chad Brown bypass the 9F, FL Derby & Wood Memorial with expected small fields, at venues Tuscan Gold has made a start, for the 9 1/2F full field LA Derby?
The above is a very long question. But has to be consider a very pertinent one. A trainer doesn’t bypass an easier opportunity to secure a spot in the KD for a more difficult one.
If a trainer of Chad Brown’s repute makes such a call it, represents an extreme expression of confidence that his charge is up to the task.
How many are willing to join mew on the Tuscan Gold bandwagon? There is lots of room.
I’m all in, Counter Point. I’ve got a bet down on Tuscan Gold in Futures #5 pool @ 81-1. Like you, I found it curious that he was entered in the LA Derby rather than the Wood or FLA Derby. Chad Brown has to know something and we’ll find out just what on Saturday. Cha ching!
Could be that Brown prefers the longer 6-week timeframe to the derby. TG had nearly 3 months off between his two maiden races and 7.5 weeks off between his maiden win and tomorrow’s La Derby. This is obviously a promising colt, but none of the competitors in the maiden win have subsequently impressed. One of them did win a MC50 on AW surface. He should be a decent price, though.
That could be, Winston, but I’m not so sure that’s the case. Tuscan Gold has no points and he needs to finish 1st or 2nd to get in the Derby. He’s been working well in the a.m., and tomorrow, we’ll have a clearer picture on just how good this colt is.
Dewey, I think that if a horse is good enough to be a contender on the first Saturday in May, then it shouldn’t matter in which prep he picks up sufficient points.
That’s a good observation, there’s a pattern of sorts, Brown gives him lots of recovery time, and intends to give him six weeks to The Derby—if he gets in he could be the longshot with a shot!…
Thanks, Matthew. I suppose some horses can take the quick turnaround, others not so much.
I always wonder what Chad Brown would do if he won the Kentucky Derby. Coming back in just 2 weeks for the Preakness would go against every grain of his body and soul. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him skip the Preakness if one of his 3 possible Derby horses, Sierra Leone, Domestic Product, or Tuscan Gold, wins the Derby. Five weeks would be a lot more comfortable for him. On the other hand, he would probably be under tremendous pressure from the owners, fans, and the racing media to run back in 2 weeks. Still, the man usually walks to his own drumbeat. I almost hope that he wins the Derby to see what he would do.
Gregson did just that, with Gato Del Sol, he said after the race he wouldn’t ask a horse to do that…..more than 40 years ago……
I would definitely be surprised if he skips the Preakness with a derby winner. Don’t forget that his colt Good Magic came back in the Preakness after finishing second in the derby. But it’s all about the individual horse.
Has there ever been a Kentucky Derby winner that has been documented with a forelimb gait abnormality, referred to as paddling?
Paddling – An outward deviation of the lower foreleg during flexion while the horse is in motion. Winging is an exaggerated version of paddling noticeable in horses with elevated knee action.
I hope the highlighting of the definition doesn’t cause any offence as it was done for the benefit of the few who may not be familiar with the gait abnormality and how to identify it.
Sierra Leone paddles on his rail side forelimb. This was on full display in his debut win. Should this be cause for concern healing into the KD? I think yes!
The colt’ stretch run is equivalent to that of a runaway locomotive. A horse’s conformation significantly influences its movement. Correct leg alignment enables hooves to leave the ground symmetrically, travel straight, and land with minimal stress on the limb’s bones, joints, and soft tissues. Could Sierra Leone antics deep in the stretch of the Remsen have resulted from stress on his forelimbs as a result of his peddling?
Should Sierra Leone emerge the winner of the Blue Grass unscathed. He will join fellow race winner and paddler Vekoma, who has to be the worst paddler on record. Vekoma returned to finish 12th in the KD.
I consider paddling to place horses with the gait abnormality, at a greater risk of exercise and race related injuries. If there is one reason to have doubt about Sierra Leon’s prospect of winning the KD, his gait abnormality has to be it.
A dry fast surface at Churchill and the 10F of the KD are not friends of entrants with Symmetry issues.
Essential Quality, ran 3rd in Derby after troubled trip.Finished in money eight out of ten races. Prevailed in Travers, Belmont. Not bad for horse
known for paddling.
Essential Quality didn’t possess an obvious paddling action as compared Sierra Leone. Further, Essential Quality was more of a grinder as compared to Sierra Leone who is far more explosive with a faster stride turnover rate.
I have concerns for Sierra Leone going forwards.
Two of the strongest finishers from this crop —Honor Marie and Mystik Dan —are sons of milers ….
Doesn’t mean can’t get 10f. Especially HM.
Unbridled and Fusiachi Pegasus were by milers …also a certain big red Triple Crown Winner …
Yes, for sure!
It’s hard to classify Bold Ruler as anything in particular. He was sensational at 7f and a mile but most people forget he won the 1 1/4-mile Suburban Handicap under 134 pounds giving away 18 pounds and more to the rest of the field
Can you imagine what a horse like that could do these days?
Didn’t Bold Ruler win the Preakness.?
He absolutely did.
I’d call City of Light, sire of Conquest Warrior—a miler ….that guy looks scary good….
Agree w/ your comment. CW has everything except points. Hopefully he prevails.
Mike Relva–
Conquest Warrior is a very special horse. Thankfully, he’s in the right hands. The Florida Derby has a tough field, but it doesn’t effect him.
Honor Code won graded stakes at 1 1/8 – I would not call him a miler
Too bad your hero exiled to another country.
Due you just wake up on the wrong side of the bed or are you always this rude and a jerk?
Will take jerk anytime over poser.
Mike Relva, Japan’s real hero was Sunday Silence. He put Japanese racing on the map.
It looks like every horse we sell to the Japanese, they combine the pedigree a with horse descended from Sunday Silence.
They even privately purchased Caravaggio from Coolmore. Coolmore didn’t know what they had with Caravaggio; his sire is Scat Daddy and his dam’s sire is Holy Bull
Terri, your comments are always classy and illustrate great knowledge. Agree regarding SS. Saw his son, Hat Trick
at Gainsway several years ago. Thinking maybe sixteen, he was. Disgrace they sold him off to some obscure farm in
another country and ended up dying there.
Mike Relva: Thanks Mike. What a shame about Hat Trick.
And too many people judge a horse by it’s confirmation, pedigree, and speed. But the Japanese valued Sunday Silence for his heart and will to win. His crooked legs could be eventually corrected by breeding him to a mare with good legs. Sunday Silence was born with that strong will as he survived things that would have killed other horses.
Mike Relva– The Florida Derby has the creme de la creme this year. I can’t even bet my favorites in the Florida Derby at the track this year. I bet them in the Derby Futures.
Just remember that Johnny V said that Fierceness gave up in the Holy Bull, after being bumped and seeing that Hades was passing him. A Derby Horse does not give up.
Totally agree! Never forgave Gainsway.
Really like Conquest Warrior.
I am really trying to act cool, calm, and collected, but I am in love with Conquest Warrior. He’s a warrior. I am so glad that Shug has him.
Terri,
Agreed! Shut does right by the horse always!
Shug.
Id consider a miler a horse whose best distance is one mile…..maybe Honor Codes’s best distance was nine furlongs, but his career best race was that Met Mile he ran…. Precisionist won at 10 furlongs and he won at 9……but his best distance was one mile…..
His best race may have been the Whitney, IMO – but even if I conceded that, I would say he was a middle distance horse. Actually he ran pretty well in the Classic -he never ran enough at Classic distances to tell how he would have done overall
I like milers, especially on top…..they give their progeny speed, dams give the stamina….Honor Codes’s Met Mile is one of the greatest ever…..
Milers have to have speed and stamina, if milers don’t have stamina they are sprinters. In general, milers make the best sires because they ‘hopefully’ throw both speed and some stamina.
The reason why Siyouni works so well with Galileo mares because he adds that speed to the stamina/determination of Galileo mares without losing stamina in the process. Desired in Classic distance races.
You could make a convincing argument Precisionist’s best race was at 9 furlongs.
Northern California Fall Meet at Pleasanton approved 6-0 by CHRB.
Ball now in Linda Stonach’s court.
Yay. Love those Northern Cal races.
Pleasanton was built in 1858..
The threat technique did not work, it was 6-0…..
RE: Jeff Ruby Steaks
I’m convinced that Endlessly is the horse to beat in referenced race. However, I’m giving a hard look at the MMM winner, Otello, at 15-1. After being bumped at the start in the Holy Bull, he failed to fire, finishing a disappointing 6th.
It’s interesting to note that his last two works have been on turf. The question is, will that help him run better on the AWT at Turfway Park? I would think Christophe Clement had a reason to work him on turf, so I’m expecting a better performance than we saw in the Holy Bull. That said, I’ll include Otello underneath in my superfecta p/w wager.
I’ll key Endlessly on top, with Lucky Jeremy, Northern Flame, Otello and Seize the Grey underneath in a $2.00 super p/w wager.
That is: 10/ 3,6,8,9/ 3,6,8,9/ 3,6,8,9
Safe trips to all.
I see there is no love for Freedom Principle.
I am of the opinion his rider has no option but to send him to the lead because of his #1 post. He has the tactical speed to secure the led and also a ton of stamina, fueled by his exceptionally strong dam line, to effectively carry his speed over 9F. His synthetic record is 4 starts (2-2-0).
If you like Lucky Jeremy who has never made a start on synthetic. Consider giving Freedom Principle another looks. He has experience and success on synthetic. A known, known versus an know, unknown.
Bill, I agree with you that Endlessly is the class of the Jeff Ruby. I recall you were high on Otello after the Mucho Macho Man. I’ve settled on a (virtual) 4-horse boxed trifecta of Endlessly, Northern Flame, Lucky Jeremy and Otello. Which probably means Woodcourt will win the whole thing.
Hey Bill! Split between Endlessly and Otello.
Hey Mike
Yeah, I’m very high on Otello as well. I’m thinking about changing my superfecta wager to include Otello in the first two slots.
That would give me the option of adding Woodcourt in the 3rd and 4th slots (with Lucky Jeremy, Northern Flame and Seize the Grey.
That is: 8, 10/ 8,10/ 3,6,7,9/ 3,6,7,9.
Good luck, Mike.
Good luck to you as well!
I’ll Have Another to Old Friends! He is the horse I made the biggest wager of my lifetime on, I still remember watching Mario put up a terrific ride on him, and then making up six lengths on Bodemeister in The Preakness! He would have been heavily favored, to win The Triple Crown but suffered a tendon injury, and now he will love nextdoor to Lava Man …
So glad to hear he’s going to Old Friends. Maybe worth another visit, although it’s an awfully long way from NY to Kentucky (I did that drive in ’17, returning all in one day when I lived in the city. I was hallucinating when I parked the car in front of my building; scratch that; I called my husband upstairs and had HIM come down and park the car. Never again.
Ms. Blacktype, I highly recommend going to Kentucky with the Secretariat Group. You are driven to farms by their tour bus and it’s terrific. Hopefully, they will do a tour again sometime. It is very worthwhile.
Looking at the Thoro-Graph numbers and other factors , the La. Derby overlay could be Agate Road. Depends how he handles FG. He should love the long strtch and the distance.
I really like Agate Road. The tail of his pedigree is inundated with stamina, so he should relish the longer distance.
Is there any possible way City of Troy makes it to the Derby at this late stage?
Aidan O’Brien would never run his superstar horse here. Pointing for the English Derby. Maybe the Guneas frst. Not sure
Hi
Aidan has stated his plan is for City of Troy to be his only 2000 Guineas entrant. This will be the first time he entered only one colt in the 2000 Guineas since he sent Roderic O’Connor to face Frankel in the 2011 edition of the Guineas. Aside from a possible start in the Travers, the goal for the Ballydoyle team is for City of Troy to pursue the English Triple Crown.
While I love Aidan and the Ballydoyle runners, I am not sold on City of Troy. He didn’t run enough times last year for me to stamp him as a potential superhorse.
greg (Fan of Damascus . . . resident of Winnipeg)
Timeform gave City of Troy a high rating of 125 for his Dewhurst Stakes win which is equal to Pinatubo, Teofilo, and New Approach for their Dewhurst triumphs. Frankel was slightly higher on 126 for his Dewhurst Stakes win.
That isn’t faint praise.
Looking forward to the 2000 Guineas on the first Saturday in May, and the phenoms touted by Davids down under this Saturday. Must remember to set the recordings at the appropriate time (which may mean tonight, or at least tomorrow afternoon for Australia). Exciting horses!
Good for you, Ms Blacktype, and it’s actually sunny in Sydney on Saturday which is a rarity these days. Allez, Storm Boy!!
If you are interested in the Fukuryu Stakes at Nakayama, Race 10 on Saturday, last of the Japanese prep races, you can see the field with pedigree details at: jra dot jp
There are California Chrome, Into Mischief, Creator, Drefong, Pyro, and Majestic Warrior colts, among others, running. You never know one might decide to run in the Kentucky Derby should they win.
City of Troy will be running in the English 2,000 Guineas bar injury on May 4, 2024.
Hi Steve, Looking over the Jeff Ruby I can’t seem to get West Saratoga out of my mind. I would love your opinion or any comments you may have. Is his Thoro Graph pattern any good? Really appreciate this and ALL the work you put in for us fans!!
He ran an 8 last out. Hiss carerr high was a 7 four races back, This isnt a fast bunch so his numbers fit OK. He can be competitive here.
There are a number of ranked contenders that were sired by winners of Breeder Cup races. See below:
Sierra Leone – Gun Runner – BCC – The only BCC winner to sire a KD winner is Unbridled.
Fierceness – City Of Lights – BC Dirt Mile – No BC Dirt Mile winner has ever sired a KD winner.
Mystik Dan- Goldencents – BC Dirt Mile – No BC Dirt Mile winner has ever sired a KD winner.
Deterministic – Liam’s Map – BC Dirt Mile – No BC Dirt Mile winner has ever sired a KD winner.
Conquest Warrior- City Of Lights – BC Dirt Mile – No BC Dirt Mile winner has ever sired a KD winner.
Dornoch – Good Magic – BCJ – Sire of 2023 KD winner Mage
Liberal Arts- Arrogate – BCC – The only BCC winner to sire a KD winner is Unbridled.
Wow! Seven of the 15 ranked contenders were sired by the winner of a Breeder Cup race.
How many KD winners have been sired by the winners of Breeder Cup races?
1995 – Thunder Gulch – Gulch (BC Sprint)
1996 – Grindstone by Unbridled (BCC).
2016 – Nyquist – Uncle Mo (BCJ)
2023 – Mage – Good Magic (BCJ)
The BC Dirt mile is missing from the above list. Fierceness, Mystik Dan, Deterministic and Conquest Warrior were sired by a BC Dirt mile winner. Could the 2024 KD winner emerge from one of the 4?
By now everyone knows that I am a Trend Geek. In 2023 KD, the A P Indy bloodline was reflected in a whopping 7 starters that included post time favorite Angel of Empire, runner up Two Phil’s and 4th place finisher Disarm.
I concluded that given the resumes of the entrants reflecting the AP Indy dm line. There was a strong possibility that a trifecta could emerge. I did a TRIXBOX with the 7 entrants. Mage spoils my TRI. But my theory wasn’t far off. The 2nd ,3rd, 4th & 5th finishers were in my TRI.
Why mentioned the above story? The trend is. Whenever there is a large collection of entrants, with a grouping factor, the winner rarely if ever emerges from that group.
What’s the prospect of the winners of a BC race being associated with the 2024 KD winner?
I wouldn’t bet on it. But trends can change without notice.
Deterministic breezed 5F, in 1:03.60, at PPTC, (today, 3-21).
Still awaiting a decision by Christophe Clement on his next start. Stay tuned.
How is my future wager Looking?
Good to know, I was thinking something was wrong. The Wood Mem. and latest preps are in 2 weeks, so only one more workout?
Deterministic is one of my favorite horses, so I hope he makes it to the derby. He has a beautiful pedigree; inundated with stamina on the bottom.
I think this is it, for Honor Marie’s Derby hopes—he needs to come and get them in the Louisiana Derby stretch…I think he can, based on his terrific come-home time, in Kentucky…..he just needs to run his race….
Listed below is the order of finish behind Honor Marie in the Kentucky Jockey Club. The results of their subsequent start/s are detailed as well.
Real men Violin – 1 start; 8th in Risen Star.
Stretch Ride ——— No start.
Risk It—————–3 starts – 5th, 5th; 3rd.
Awesome Road——-2 starts – 4th; 4th.
Dancing Groom——-2 stars – 5th; 5th.
One Red Cent———No Start.
Nomos—————-2 starts -4th; 4th
What can be objectively extrapolated from the above results produced by the entrant that finished behind Honor Marie in the KJC Stakes?
Let’s examine the cold facts:
The best finish by any member of the lot was a 3rd in an AOC.
All were badly beaten in their next Stakes appearance.
Some were badly beaten in AOC races.
it wouldn’t be unreasonable and with no attempt to diminish Honor Marie’s victory, to conclude that the field for the 2023 renewal of the KCJ Stakes was modest at best. If there is concurrence with the aforementioned conclusion regarding the KJC field. Any assessment of Honor Marie’s potential to be competitive at the highest level cannot be linked to his KJC victory.
Based on the results subsequent to the KJC. Honor Marie appears to have been the best of a modest group. Is this a realistic or overly harsh assessment? I would conclude it is an assessment driven by cold facts.
The raking above reflects a lot of speculation towards the future as do all rankings. Did Honor Marie’s KJC win provide enough evidence that he is a top-class colt in the making?
Honor Marie is currently ranked at #12. Steve Haskin isn’t convinced he has the good and rightfully so. I think Steve is overly generous ranking the Honor Code colt ahead of Liberal Art and the undefeated, Hades & Forever Young. The aforementioned 3 have won at the stakes level against far more talented opponents than those comprising the KJC field.
I am not trying to dampen your enthusiasm for Honor Marie. But rather, providing what I consider to be pertinent facts that are driving my perspective of the colt. In the end horses can rise to the occasion. In fact, many have made analysts appear to be in need of a refreshers course in talent evaluation.
He made up a lot of lengths on an already fast final five sixteenths …
When I evaluate two year old prospects. ..I look at how straight they run and final five sixteenths times, as my way of judging their ability to finish a two turn race— some use breeding angles, I use what you call “facts”…..everyone has their way of unlocking the mystery!….
One thing I don’t do is the “he beat this horse who beat that horse” angle ….I also like Liberal Arts, but how you can say he is legit but Honor Marie is not is beyond my understanding, I like Honor Marie a lot—but it’s Horse Racing, I’m wrong more often than I’m right!
Yes, Matthew, and so is everyone else, otherwise horse racing would have closed up shot centuries ago. Made me chuckle and chuckle your last sentence.
Shop not shot. Autocorrected.
” How you can say he is legit, but Honor Marie is not, is beyond my understanding”
I do not recall inferring legitimacy regarding either of the two colts. If their respective graded stakes record is compares it reflects the following:
Liberal Arts –
Iroquois – troubled 3rd
Street Sense -1st
Southwest – 3rd off lengthy layoff and lost training time.
Honor Marie –
Kentucky Jockey Club –
Risen Star – 5th
Both colts have similar running styles.
One has never been off the board in all its starts and the other was off the board once.
One has a better first two graded stakes record.
I couldn’t assign legitimacy of one colt over the other. However, Liberal Arts appear to be the better of the two at the moment. He has a better resume. He had an excuse for being beaten by 8L in the southwest. Honor Marie had none for his 8 L defeat in the RS.
I made money when Honor Marie won the KJC Stake as he was my choice. But one cannot dispute that the field was modest. There hasn’t been a winner out of the race at even the allowance level. HONOR MARIE FINISHED AMONGST THE ALSO RAN IN THE RISEN STAR.
To be high on Hobor Marie requires more than his KJC performance against a modest field. Steve inexplicably has him ranked at #12 ahead of 3 colts with better resumes. But he probably has inside information he is using to assess him.
I have noted your stated assessment and evaluation philosophy and I concur with same. However, whilst perfect mechanics helpful in movement, it isn’t what influence’s ability. Ability is either present or not.
Let me reiterate. Irrespective of a horse’s PPs heading into a race, it can rise to the occasion. My perspective of Honor Marie is a bit more measured than yours. No disparagement and/or undermining of the colt was my intent.
He still has finished ahead of a graded stakes place horse in his 2nd start and the winner went on to win a stakes as well. Not completely devoid of quality horses for competition.
Good news for the Golden Slipper Stakes on Saturday (Australia), it’s going to be sunny. Moreover, Storm Boy drew post (barrier) 2, and Switzerland post (barrier) 7 which are good for Rosehill. Switzerland drew slightly better.
If you can’t catch ‘the Slipper’ on your usual carrier: racingnsw dot com dot au show the race live.
You may have to use a VPM from the US but I’m not sure on that. Enjoy the race.
I’m disappointed by the lack of communication from Clement about Deterministic. He was supposed to have a work out today, perhaps he’s not 100% ready to race, having had a bone chip removed last fall. One of his owners seemed eager to follow the Derby trail.
Hey Discopartner
Per Christophe Clement, Deterministic will work on Thursday, March 21st, at Payson Park. In addition, Clement mentioned that he preferred to watch him breeze before totally committing to the Wood, but said, “The Wood is the option today”.
BTW, the preliminary list of Wood runners, before the nominations are closed this weekend are:
Be You
Deterministic
El Grande O
Elysian Meadows
Top Conner
Tuscan Sky
Uncle Heavy
Great, thanks Bill. I’ve become a fan of Deterministic and hope he goes in the Wood. But he is inexperienced.
You’re welcome, Discopartner.
I’m a big fan of Deterministic and have been since his maiden win back in August. This colt checks a lot of boxes, IMO.
He has “ALL” the characteristics of an “Alpha Horse”, which should work to his advantage in the Kentucky Derby 20 horse field.
I’m looking forward to seeing how he performs going 9 furlongs in the Wood. He has demonstrated the ability to carry his impressive speed over a distance of ground. The way he way drawing away in the Gotham is a strong indication that 9 furlongs are well within his range.
I feel fortunate to have a $40.00 win wager on Deterministic at 107-1 in Futures Pool 3.
Good luck, Discopartner.
With Todd Pletcher’s decision to run Agate Road in New Orleans, the Jeff Ruby Steaks Stakes has the feel of a longshot waiting to happen. Get a price.
Stronach subsidiary threatening to sell or close Santa Anita if CHRB approves horse racing in Northern California.
(headline summary as reported in LA Times).
Said it years ago that horse racing in United States is going the same route as NASCAR.
I have said it for years on what dirt bag Stronach is.. Why the brass at Santa Anita let him in the door is beyond me.
I agree about horse racing going the way of the Dodo bird. I felt that it was the beginning of the end when Hollywood Park closed.
The world is greedy, casinos popping up everywhere.
Steve was 100% correct when he mentioned that it is beyond difficult to get young people interested in horse racing. Those people don’t understand the history, the pageantry & the nostalgia of horse racing.
My best times of growing up were the times I went to the track with my dad.
Hi Deacon – I agree with you and also can state that I had great times of going to the racetrack with my dad. My hometrack is Thistledown and the casinos have upped the purse of the Ohio Derby. This is a sport that we love and have fond memories of and it would be a Shame if it one day goes away.
Very true 1JoeP, very sad state of affairs.
I mostly just lurk around here, but just wanted to say, don’t give up on all the young-uns! I don’t keep up with what passes for “young” anymore, but does mid-30’s still count?, That’s my age, and I’ve followed and loved this sport since I was 13. My Dad and I went out to Emerald Downs many a Friday night during the Seattle summers, and those are some of my fondest memories. No, I’m not old enough to have seen or personally remember most of the past greats, but reading about them from Steve and going back to watch videos of their races, have instilled in me a love for those horses and for the long and storied history of this sport. I have several young kiddos of my own who are being raised to love the races! My 8 year old has been a fervent fan of White Abarrio ever since he won the Holy Bull. They’re busy (along with me!) whittling down the Derby prospects for this year.
I enjoyed your heartwarming post. Please share who you and your family pick as Derby prospects!
Thank you very much Liz. Please keep coming back. You have so much to contribute. And please bring as many young-uns with you as you can. Yes you are definitely a young-un
Golden Sixty – Medaglia D Oro. (30starts 26-2-1)
DAM SIRES
1st Dam – Distorted Humor
2nd Dam – Seattle Slew – TC winner, Champion 3yo, Horse of the Year,
3rd Dam – Damascus – Preakness, Belmont, Champion 3yo, Horse of the Year,
4th Dam – Northern Dancer – K, Preakness, Champion 3yo, U S & Canadian, HOTY
With the above list of dam sires the caption gelding had every chance of being an exceptional champion. He won 16 consecutive races.
Freedom Principle – Flame Away (Synthetic 4 starts 2 -2)
DAM SIRES
1st Dam – Mineshaft – 2003 Horse of the Year & Champion older male
2nd Dam – El Gran Senor – 1st Irish Derby (G1), 2000 Guineas (G1) Champion 3yo colt
3rd Dam – Sir Ivor – 1st Epsom Derby, 2000 Guineas, Prix de l’Arc de Triomph, Champion 2yo & 3yo
4thDam – Vaguely Noble – 1st Prix de l’Arc de Triomph, Champion 3yo colt
The caption colt is entrant #1 in the Jeff Ruby. His list of dam sires is exceptionally strong. At a ML of 30/1 and with good synthetic form. He has to be a live longshot to upset his more fancied rivals.
It appears that Deterministic has missed a work that was scheduled for today, Wednesday, 3-20.
Hopefully, everything is ok with this impressive colt moving forward.
Come off the ledge, Bill. DRF reported Deterministic will be working tomorrow. Clement said he’s likely going to run in the Wood Memorial.
This year’s crop of three year old males might be a case of late bloomers again…
At this time (March 20th) last year there was seven horses that achieved a triple digit Beyer led by Register (103), Empirestrikesfast (102), Practical Move (102), Asmodeus ( (101), Dreamlike (101), Coffeewithchris (100) and Verifying (100).
Other than Practical Move, Verifying and Dreamlike who had either mild success later on or stop racing altogether-it was horses that later on that blossomed on the track such as National Treasure, Mage, Geaux Rocket Ride, Arcangelo Et al.
This year just three horses have achieved a triple digit Beyer leading up to today and one horse, Nysos, is sidelined. Another, Speak Easy, was scratched in the FOY which leave Mystik Dan.
You might see some separation from top horses to the mid level pack in the next few weeks….or then again, you might not.
I tend to agree with your thoughts here. The unique Belmont Stakes – Travers Stakes double at Saratoga could be fabulous to watch as well as historic to be there. I believe the Belmont Stakes tickets were sold out weeks ago.
In the Racing Post, Aidan O’Brien has again mentioned sending City of Troy to the Travers Stakes which would be sensational for Saratoga should City of Troy win the 2,000 Guineas and the Epsom Derby. Mind you, O’Brien has mentioned previously that City of Troy could be set for the English Triple Crown.
City of Troy can’t run in both the Travers Stakes and the English St Leger. Let’s hope City of Troy has the option to race in either.
John, how many horses have run triple digit Beyer and ends up missing Derby for injury,etc? Many!
Ditto Mike!!
I was just infformed by his trainer that Grand Mo the First, who for some odd reason is not in the Future Wager field off a huge performance in the Tampa Derby, is running in the Florida Derby. Don’t ignore this horse. He may be more dangerous than people think. I will be writing about him next week. .
Thanks for the tip, Steve. With that pedigree 9f shouldn’t be too arduous while his natural speed should take him a long way.
n the last 20 renewal of the KD, he stallion lines that have been associated with the winner are as follows:
Mr. Prospector -10
Northern Dancer – 4
A P Indy – 2
Others – 4
The 15 ranked contenders for Week #9 by stallion lines are as follows:
Mr. Prospector – 7
Northern Dancer – 5
A P Indy – 2
Others – 1
An interesting pattern has been in existence over the last 20 years. None of the stallion lines have been associated with more than 2 consecutive winners.
2022 to 2023 – Rich Strike/Mae – Mr. Prospector
2020 to 2021 – Authentic/Mandaloun – Northern Dancer
2013 to 2014 – Orb/California Chrome
In 2023, the Northern Dancer line with Two Phil’s (Hard Spun) appeared well on its way to breaking the consecutive wins tie for the period, but a late burst from Mage prevented this from occurring.
If there is the belief that this trend will continue in 2024. The contenders from the Mr. Prospector line have to be eliminated from the #1 slot. The winner is therefore likely to emerge from one of the other 3 groups. But which!
The Northern Dancer line has the #2, #4, #7, #9 & #13 ranked contenders. and appears very strong.
The A P Indy line has the #10 & #12 ranked contenders and is not well represented.
The consolidated other stallion line has the #14 ranked contender – Forever Young.
Of the 8 ranked contenders that are not from the Mr. Prospector line, JUST A TOUCH appears to be the most impressive. TIMBERLAKE is a very nice colt, but he has to be eliminated from the top spot. His sire Into Mischief sired the 2020 & 2021 KD winners. Given KD history, a stallion is unlikely be associated with 3 winners in a span of 5 years.
NB: The winner could emerge from the KNOCKING ON THE DOOR group. Tuscan Gold as an ultra-interesting entrant in the LS Derby. Has there ever been a KD entrant whose sire and dam sie finished 2nd in the Belmont?
I’m looking at the longest odds on the board and I am betting that horse. It’s that kind of year
Blake: Feeling that way about my March Madness bracket. I think I may fill it out again and go for the lowest ranked teams.
Steve, reading your latest Kentucky Derby Rankings is not only informative but extremely comforting as well. Who ever wins the Kentucky Derby from where we are now is pure guesswork. Granted, this is a liminal period before the major preps but usually by now there is a consensus by most that a certain half dozen or so colts will fit out the finish of the Kentucky Derby. This year, who really knows which colts are going to be the major protagonists in the Kentucky Derby, prior to the running of the major preps.
I’m looking forward to the first major preps being run this weekend just to clear some of the fog that looms around these colts. Hopefully, Chasing Freedom and Honor Marie will cement their positions in the Kentucky Derby by performing admirably in the Louisiana Derby. In the Jeff Ruby Steaks, it looks an absolute lottery but I like your faith in Woodcourt as an outsider with a chance to upset. Sometimes, these horses make you appear to be geniuses so, if Woodcourt makes the grade, we can don the caps as being master punters of extraordinary talent. Ha ha
Ramjet, apparently, is already in the field for the Kentucky Derby so that was an easy assault to reach Mount Olympus but performing well there may be somewhat insurmountable on not racing in 11 weeks. You never know in racing.
The famous Golden Slipper Stakes will be run at Rosehill in Sydney this Saturday and Coolmore have the two favorites- Storm Boy and Switzerland. Storm Boy, akin to Coolmore’s City of Troy in the UK, appears to be an absolute standout. Both being sons of Justify, they are heralding in the rise of a new super sire with influence the world over. Will Just a Touch join his brethren in this glorification? Stranger things have happened in racing.
A most enjoyable read. Thank you, Steve. After this weekend, the fog should start to lift.
Hi David’s – I watched Ramjets win and it was very impressive. He won going away. His pedigree appears very strong and he should relish the 1 1/4 of the KY Derby. The 11 week layoff is a concern , though Derma Sotagake fired a 2nd in the BCC after a 6 month layoff, so anything is possible. Hopefully Ramjet is training well and ships well. This 3 year old crop is rather uninspiring and the KY Derby IMO is somewhat wide open. My 2 KDFW horses are Just a Touch and Liberal Arts. I bet them to win and boxed them with each other, the Field , and Sierra Leone. Ramjet is a Fieid horse in the KDFW so I would love him to win or come in second with LA or JAT winning or coming in second. What’s your view of my 2 KDFW horses David’s? I enjoy your posts because they are friendly and informative.
Thanks 1JoeP, it’s always fun reading everyone’s opinions on how the horses in the Derby are stacking up. It’s unfortunate that most of the brilliant colts are out of the Derby running through injury, trained by Bob Baffert or both. Where Maymun runs next is speculative and Baffert has been unpredictable previously. Maymun, could be anything.
I like both Just a Touch and Liberal Arts, the former slightly more so than the latter as they both appear to be on an upswing trajectory. Hopefully, they get fine weather in their next races to show their full potential. Both pedigrees should fine 10f to their advantage. Best of luck to you with both of them.
Ramjet intrigues me but I wish he had one more prep, his last race is exactly what you want to see going forward but 11 weeks between races is a concern. Going forward, there seems quite a few of the favorites are closers which is against them in a race like the Kentucky Derby.
I agree with you that, at this stage anyway, the Derby is wide open with the next few weeks making that puzzle clearer or throwing more smoke in your eyes. Post positions could be vitally important this year. Things are really starting to heat up now, at last.
Hello Steve- Maymun is not on the nominated list of runners for the ARK Derby. Muth is listed but hasn’t run in almost 3 months. Looking forward to Liberal Arts when he runs in the ARK Derby. LA is my 46-1 KDFW2 horse. Timberlake is listed as probable for the Bluegrass according to HRN Stakes tracker. I read that you believe Timberlake is running in the Arkansas Derby. All LA needs is a good third to get the points to get into the derby where he should relish 1 1/4. What’s your view of Muth possibly racing after a three month layoff and did you confirm that Timberlake is running in the ARK Derby? Whoever shows up I have faith that LA will run his race and be closing powerfully in the stretch to contend and get the needed derby points.
Steve, according to DRF, Ramjet is not taking part in the final race in the Japan Road to the Derby series, The Fukuryu Stakes on March 23 but is going to the Derby with the points he has already. DRF have Ramjet opening at 40-1. Ramjet will have 11 weeks between races but in this higgledy-piggledy Derby Trail that might be a good omen. Time will tell.
I saw that a week or so ago bbut forgot to mention it.I was planning on doing a visual analysis next week
Thanks Steve, I look forward to your analysis. He impressed in the Hyacinth Stakes but a jump to 10f without a prep and 11 weeks between races seems to be asking a lot but overall they’re all inexperienced really. Who knows?
Those are the key words this year – who knows.
Exactly, Steve. Hopefully, there will be some clarity after the major preps but then again we might be a bit like “Doctor Foster” in same nursery rhyme – stepping in a puddle, right up to our middle, and never be seen again. lol. You can only laugh really.
I am very much awaiting the Florida Derby, in which a minimum of 4 top Kentucky Derby contenders are racing.
As the odds will be low for Hades and Conquest Warrior in the Florida Derby, I have chosen to bet them in the Kentucky Derby Future Wagers instead. Incidentally, Hades has won all of his races at Gulfstream. And in the last allowance race in which Conquest Warrior won, his odds were 3 to 5; his paternal sire (City of Light) and grandsire (Quality Road) have both done well at Gulfstream Park. Shug’s last Derby winner, Orb, also had an affinity for Gulfstream.
This is definitely a talented group of colts running this year. Wishing all a safe trip.
Hi Steve
Over the past two or three weeks, your Derby Rankings have remained “status quo”, which in my opinion, is spot on.
However, the outcome of the two major Derby prep races, coming up this weekend, could provide some significant changes in your Derby Rankings – Week 10.
I anticipate a strong showing by Endlessly, in the Jeff Ruby Steaks, which should propel him into the top 15 Rankings.
In the Louisiana Derby, I believe Track Phantom is the horse the rest will have to catch. A win by TP, should move him up several spots, possibly to #6 or #7, but obviously, that’s up to you. In my view, Catching Freedom is one horse that could run Track Phantom down in the deep stretch.
Many thanks for providing your weekly analysis on the top contenders moving forward on the Derby trail. Your tireless efforts are much appreciated.
.
Only problem with Endlessly is that he has never run on dirt and is bred for the grass,
Thanks for the reply Steve.
Your points are well taken. However, he’s works have been on dirt, which are quite impressive, I might add.
I’m anxious to see if Endlessly can transfer his impressive turf form to dirt. The Jeff Ruby Steaks should provide the answer.
Edit to say, “his works have been on dirt”.
I hope he can. Hes a really nice horse.
And the field he beat at Golden Gate was hardly a stakes worthy field…..
Endlessly has proven he can win on turf as well as tapeta. Granted, he was over-matched in the BC Juvenile Turf, facing those Euro turf invaders, but aside from that, he’s undefeated in the other four races. I suspect he’ll be just fine, traveling over the AWT at Turfway Park.
I don’t have any futures bets on Endlessly, but from my perspective, he’s certainly a horse to watch moving forward.
Dismiss Endlessly at your own risk.
Have a good day, Matthew W.
Well Bill I have to dismiss most of them, and it’s always a risk!
That is certainly your prerogative to dismiss any horse of your choosing.
Good luck, Matthew W.
Agreed! A horse with possible upside.
Even finishing eighth in the BC he was beaten only 3 1/2 lengths and 2 lengths for second in a cavalry charge to the wire.
Odd that they’ve took Bejarano off Honor Marie and replaced him with a jockey I’ve never heard of – Ben Curtis. Especially since he needs a top 2 finish to have enough points
It does seem odd, but its a bit compllicated. Not my place to discuss it.
Eek…
Well, I’ve no idea what to think now….Guess we’ll find out in a few days
Thank you – great job as usual!
In other words, private matter.
Its between the connections and Bejarano so not relevant. Beckman has watched Curtis ride and says he has confidence in him.
Totally agree Mr. Haskin
When Bejarano rode out west—-he did not like to travel—maybe they want him to work the horse, and Ben rides Fairgrounds, he’s a decent rider …
RB had ridden Honor Marie in his last work before the most recent one – so it’s not that.
I really like this colt, so hopefully Ben will give him a good ride….
Please don’t jinx Honor Marie with your negativity.
For sure!
Well, they have fingers on pulse, unlike those on outside.
Betsy, a third or even a fourth place by Honor Marie should get him into the Kentucky Derby as long as he’s fit and ready to go. The stringent vet checks at Churchill Downs knock a lot of runners these days prior to the race. The weather looks perfect for Saturday. Fingers crossed he runs a good race, not a brilliant race, but a good solid charge down the straight.
David, I hope you’re right! I loved his KJC win – that was off a slow pace, too, soo hopefully the Risen Star performance was due to the layoff and the messed up last work, which wasn’t a work. I don’t trust the weather at the FG – it feels like it rains every time there’s a big race, lol
Deacon –
Betsy, the weather is still looking perfect for Saturday so we have to be positive that Honor Marie will rattle home for a place, if not the win. Fingers crossed.
It will be what it will be, ‘Betsy’.
I have been high on Honor Marie for quite a while … hope your prediction comes to fruition! He is my derby horse!
Like him as well.
lead shank, there is no reason to believe that Honor Marie won’t hit the board in the Louisiana Derby, the vibe is positive. Fingers crossed.
Betsy: I think Ben Curtis won the 2003 British Open golf tournament. He was ranked 396th in the world then.
Ok, I was making a joke…..
Just because you haven’t heard of him ? That doesn’t really mean much …
Mr Haskin, thanks, as always for the great weekly column.
You mentioned Resilience today and last week. Any idea what prep he is targeting? Obviously skipping LA Derby (despite running there last race in Risen Star) and I have not seen him mentioned as likely for Florida Derby.
Any input is appreciated.
Thanks in advance.
Last time I talked to Bill he mentioned the Florida Derby. I followed up on it and waiting to hear from him.
Excellent. Thank you.
It looks like the Wood may be the target now according to Bill.
Interesting. Wood sounds like it will be a stronger race than in the past few years, should be fun. Thank you.
I’m not a big futures bettor but I place a small wager on Tuscan Sky at 36-1. Now he just needs some points, lol.
Steve, I appreciate each and every column you write. This year, you’ve had the unenviable task of writing weekly columns on a Derby trail that seems stuck in the mud in very literal terms. I’m hoping for dry tracks and a break-out performance or two this weekend. It’s time for the many horses with “promise” and “potential” to give us all something to talk about, especially you. Keep up the good work.
Thanks very much. I think we’re all hoping for thee same thing. Lol
Ms B I totally agree!
The Derby has been a race where speed and stalkers have had the advantage with 1 or 2 horses coming from the clouds to pick up the pieces in the final 1/8th per usual. This year is all over the map, but right now before the FL Derby, Sierra Leonne and Conquest Warrior imo seem to be the ones who have best chance and both will be coming from out of it. The pace should be true, but again these front runners in the preps have all walked on the lead so who knows. Wild year.
That’s my feeling as well, Scott. Sierra Leone and Conquest Warrior appear to be two of the top contenders for the Derby but history has not been favorable to late closers in the Kentucky Derby. Disappointing results over the years just confirm the inevitable.
FIERCENESS
“we’ve heard enough psychoanalysis and accusations of being untrustworthy and unable to cope with adversity.”
Let me immediately distance myself from the above as my take and/or assessment of the colt was quite different, and I dare say more accurate as per his performance in the Holy Bull.
The same supporting argument that is contained in the current overview though not as glowing, isn’t dissimilar to those advanced ahead of the Holy Bull. See Below.
DERBY RANKING JANUARY 29TH.
‘Saturday’s Holy Bull Stakes will help define this year’s Derby trail, as the numbers say Fierceness is the closest thing there is to a sure thing, as none of his opponents have come within 19 Beyer points of his BC Juvenile romp. As of now there doesn’t appear to be any local horses who can get him to raise a sweat, especially with the way he has been working and how strong his gallop-outs have been.’
COUNTER POINT SUBMISSION EXTRACT
‘Fierceness won the 2023 BCJ at 16/1. The colt will make his 3YO debut in the Holy Bull. Given his impressive BCJ win, the consensus is, he just has to show up to win. However, the historic record regarding next out starts for longshot BCJ winners, should influence a moment of pause. The big question has to be. Can Fierceness defy the unflattering history of next out starts for longshot BCJ winners? Given the bit of history above, I consider Fierceness a bet against.’
I have nothing but the highest regard for Steve Hankin. However, the man, the intellectual, the award-winning writer and historian, never seems inclined to reconcile performance with trends.
Many receipts have been provided that reflect similar explosive performances by many horses from the barn of Tood Pletcher. Their performances are never a reflection of their true ability. This statement isn’t hyperbole. A preponderance of evidence can be provided to reflect why Fierceness is unlikely to replicate his BCJ performance.
Uncle Mo was a far more vaunted colt than Fierceness. The accolades and high expectations were through the roof. What was Uncle Mo’s 3YO record after his breathtaking BCJ romp that propelled him into the stratosphere?
Won the Timely Writer Stakes (Listed)
3rd In Wood Memorial @1/2 similar to Fierceness odds in the Holy Bull.
2nd in Kings Bishop
Won Kelso (G2) by 3L.
A fading 10 of 12 in the BCC.
The much-vaunted Uncle Mo who was dubbed the bay Secretariat in the making, won only a G2 race as a 3YO. Why is Fierceness this revered colt? Is it being inferred that he is a better colt than Uncle Mo?
Forte’s owner Mik Repole was left perplex when his Champion 2YO and early KD favorite finished a weaking 4th by 8L in the Travers. He obviously had forgotten Uncle Mo’s one win from 4 stats as a 3YO.
Nothing will change as the program remains the same i.e., short term success followed by flame out.
NB: Revisit the video of Pluck’s unimaginable victory in the BCJ turf.
When one is frozen on the ladder of one’s life, time is in abundance. This time has to be used in the never-ending thawing process. Most of my time is dedicated to the sport Thoroughbred Racing due my fascination with horses on whose back’s battles have been won and lost.
With only one scarcely available, non-social media friend with whom I can share my passion for the game. I find myself drafting sales proposals for one person. Fortunately, or unfortunately that person is the same one drafting the proposals.
Yes! I am aware I should be deposited in the closest Looney Bin
I am left questioning how I sold myself on wagering $200 on a KD Future Poll betting Interest, with zero KD points, two MSW starts and one shot at securing a qualifying spot. Hold the laughter! My form of insanity doesn’t rise to the level of uniqueness.
A few years ago, the unraced Bezos was listed as a KDFP betting interest. The fact that folks placed wagers on the unraced colt, informs that I am not the craziest of the crazies. Any Bazos wager had to be classified as a unique form of craziness.
TUSCAN COLD (Medaglia D’ Oro/Valadorna by Curlin /Smart Strike/Mr. Prospector)
Successful Pedigree Cross -Medaglia D’ Oro/Mr. Prospector dam line –
FOUR LIFETIME TOP PERFORMERS
Golden Sixty – Dam sire -Distorted Humor/Forty Niner/Mr. Prospector; Starts30 (26-2-1) Earning – $21.1M
Songbird – Dam sire -West Acre/ Forty Niner/Mr. Prospector; Starts 15 (13-2-0) Earning – $4.6M
Rachel Alexandra – Dam sire -Roar/Forty Niner/Mr. Prospector; Starts 19 (13-5-0) Earning – $3.6M
Talismanic – Dam sire -Magic Mission/Machiavellian/Mr. P; Starts 23 (8-7-1) Earning – $3.2M
What doesn’t Curlin have on his resume?
Kentucky Derby winner
Broodmare sire on a winner of a TC race?
None of his colts seem to be either forward enough or good enough to be a serious contender in the 2024 KD. But at the rate at which Curlin has been establishing records. It isn’t outside the realm that he could emerged the broodmare sire of the 2024 KD winner.
Based on the success of the above champions with the Medaglia D’ Oro over the Mr. Prospector cross and Curlin’s current run of establishing records. TUSCAN COLD @87/1 and my hunch has me dreaming of $16K plus payout.
Dreams are free!! My $200 was hard earned. But the risk is certainly worth the potential reward.
My own rule of thumb for future book bets is 70-1 odds or higher and I bet whatever it takes to cash 10k. Obviously, I don’t think your wager was the act of a crazy person 🙂
As far as Tuscan Gold and his pedigree, I see it as a slight negative. Reason being that Madaglia D’oro has established himself as a progenitor of great Dirt Fillies not Dirt Colts. It’s probably meaningless and his next great one may well be a colt, but I’ll let the first one beat me. You have done it the right way though by getting 87-1 to find out if Tuscan Gold will be the first.
You’re looking at $17,600 if he wins …but he still has to get into the race, and it’s several weeks out—–on Derby Day you’d be at least guaranteed to be in the race, and a $.50 trifecta Tuscan Gold—all—all would cost less than $200…but maybe less than the $17.6……but maybe more…..
That’s a really good point Matthew. Once we get to these late rounds of the Future pools, I try to think “Okay, what do I need to happen for this bet to look good on Derby Day”. For Example; I thought about getting down on Common Defense at 60-1 ish. The problem is that he’s either going to have to win the Louisiana Derby or run a bang up 2nd for my 60-1 to look like a bargain.
So, what I could do instead is put $100 to win on him in the Louisiana Derby and use the other $100 to key him under a few that I also like in the La. Derby. Either way, lets say that I’m right and cash a $1000 on Saturday. Now he’s maybe going off at 13-1 on Derby Day. I could pocket the original $200 that was going to bet on the future and put the other $800 on him to win the Derby. If he wins the Derby, I’ll still cash the 10k that I was targeting in the future wager, but I’ve still got the original $200 in my pocket.
As you can probably see, I’ve got to get through a bunch of mathematical hoops before I can actually pull the trigger on a future wager. Same thing goes for Tuscan Gold in that you really need him to win the Louisiana Derby or bang 2nd for him to even make it to the gate. May as well try to crush the Louisiana Derby first, then let it ride on Derby Day (after pocketing a few shekels from the Louisiana Derby score)
Good post ….I’ve “taken down” the Derby four times, and won a thousand a couple other times ….all on $200–$300 wagers, sometimes less—I won $5100 with $153, in 1989, and that year the big favorites were one/two ….Futures are tempting, BUT— the race itself….on the day of—could be a fortune maker!
Hello Steve – I agree with you on the talent of Just a Touch. I was thrilled to have bet him to win at 31-1 in KDFW5. I boxed JAT with the Field, Sierra Leone and with Liberal Arts. I also boxed Liberal Arts with Sierra Leone in KDFW5. That Wood seems to be coming up light on big name contenders and wonder if JAT will go there or head to the Bluegrass. My two KDFW horses are Liberal Arts at 46-1 from KDFW2 and newly added Just A Touch from KDFW5. They both have derby points and a good third in their final preps should be enough to punch their ticket to Louisville. I agree with you about Liberal Arts not having to win the Arkansas Derby to be a big contender in the KY Derby. LA always has had a big gallop out in all of his races and the 1 1/4 in the KY Derby should suit him fine. Just A Touch could turn out to be a superstar once he gets his shot at two turns in his final prep. I love the tactical speed of JAT which would serve him well in the KY Derby. The next 3 weeks will tell a lot about these horses as the competition gets better and the races get longer. Hoping both of my KDFW horses run good races in their final preps to catapult them into the starting gate for the KY Derby as live contenders.
Steve:
Living in Las Vegas, I can’t bet the CD futures, but have access to William Hill and Circa. I have been able to press a few of my futures at pretty high odds in one or the other. Specifically, you mentioned liking Liberal Arts at 45-1; he is available here at 75-1 both locations. I also pressed Resilience at 125-1 and Catching Freedom is still 80-1 at Circa. Endlessly was 500-1, now 300-1…I just like to get as many starters at high odds into the Derby, then I can focus on the horses I don’t have: for some reason, I prefer to handicap the Derby that way!
Reading your weekly insights as well as the many informed commentators here really helps me with my futures bets, I usually add a horse or two because of your kotd information or from a comment. I currently have 10 futures horses, with current payoffs from $2k to $8k. Now have to hope they get to the starting gate!
I am really looking forward to the last major preps and some clarity!
Vegas is great!
Absolutely, Mike! The updated odds are available sometimes late Saturday after preps are run…
Been there many times.
Mystik Dan remains the only horse who has run fast…..at least this year ….
Say What!
02/03/2024 – Southwest; Mystik Dan —–23.56; 47.95;1:13.23; 1:37.74; 1:43.67
02/17/2024 – AOC; Tuscan Sky ————24.06; 47.83;1:11.35; 1:36.66; 1:43.74
01/24/2024 – Maymun 6 1/2F 1:15.59 Equibase 102
What’s a Maymun?…..I mean Derby horses…..
Mystic Dan’s come home time was big-time fast ….his final 5/16……that’s Derby winning worthy ….
7-1 on Sierra Leone, seven weeks out— if they run the race today he’d be 5-1, wow!….
Hi Steve,
I very rarely get locked into a favorite horse, and I don’t mean tote board favorite but rather fan bandwagon type of favorite. I wish I did like I did before I got caught up in the analytics of horse racing for wagering purposes.
I say that so it’s clear that my attraction to Domestic Product isn’t a fanboy attraction. I’m thrilled that he only got a TG 7.5. If had gotten a 5 (as I feared he might) he wouldn’t be quite as repellant as I’d like him to be to the sheet players in his next prep.
My guess is that he’ll need his next race, so if he runs a decent non-winning effort it may set him up beautifully as the “other Chad” on Derby Day. Under those circumstance, people who don’t bet him in the prep will be less likely to find him on Derby Day because they’ll feel vindicated in their opinion if he’s a non-threaten 3ed or 4th… even second as long as it’s not a super threatening 2nd.
Anyway, fun reading your article even after an off week! It seems that the Horse Racing forums that I once lover to read this time of year have become veritable ghost towns. It turns out that your comment section has become THE place to talk ponies… unless there is a forum out there that I’ve yet to stumble uoon.
I will say Jim that I doubt there are more knowledgeable fans than we have here. Good luck with Domestic Product. I really like him as well and glad hell run again
Agree 100%! Very informative community on a wide variety of aspects pertaining to the sport. I’ve learned more at this site than any handicapping book I’ve ever read and I’ve read some really good ones over the years.
Thanks for another great write up Steve. I did take some just a touch at 32-1 in the Ky Derby pool 5. I have some earlier future wagers on Mystik Dan & Hades. At this point in time, all I can say is that this race is wide open because nobody has really stood out above the others. Hopefully we get some clarity with the upcoming 100 point races. Hard to believe that the derby is literally 6 or 7 weeks away. I cant wait.
Always a pleasure. Hope the next weeks fly by, things sort out but not too much and everyone comes home safe. Thank you!