Kentucky Derby Rankings/Works – Week 14
We have a little bit of everything in this final column before Thursday’s handicapping analysis, from a Hall of Fame tribute to the final Derby works to some new and unusual Derby wagering that readers of this website should find interesting and entertaining. ~ Steve Haskin
Kentucky Derby Works Past and Present
By Steve Haskin
Final Derby Works Past and Present
Now comes the waiting. The post positions are drawn and the final works are completed. All the major obstacles have been cleared, but the tension will still remain until the horses get in the gate on May 3. Tappan Street’s unfortunate injury following his excellent work on Saturday was a harsh reminder of how quickly things can change even when you get this close.
If you watched all the works and listened to the analysts, the image of a 20-horse dead-heat may flash through your mind. Yes, they all looked good, some better than others. These are Derby horses; they’re supposed to work impressively.
I reported and analyzed Derby works for Daily Racing Form and Blood-Horse for 23 years and for the first seven years there was no TVG works show, and until recently no Churchill Downs show streaming the works on YouTube or posting them on Twitter. Now you can really scrutinize all the works and watch them several times and pick apart any little flaw or see something you like. But in the long run the works, unless there is something dramatic, will not dictate the outcome of the race.
Although there isn’t much I can add to what everyone has seen or heard about this past weekend’s works, I will provide a brief look at what I observed later in this column. But first, this is the perfect time, with the major works just completed, to turn back the clock 21 years and pay tribute to racing’s newest member of the Hall of Fame Smarty Jones by remembering what still remains the greatest Derby work I have ever seen.
The best way to do this is simply by re-printing parts of what I wrote in my daily column at Bloodhorse the day of his final work the Saturday before the 2004 Kentucky Derby.
“Smarty Jones went out for his final work with jockey Willie Martinez up. By the time he was finished, all of Churchill Downs knew that this was no ordinary horse. With Martinez motionless throughout, Smarty Jones breezed five furlongs in :58 flat as if he were out for a morning stroll. His feet barely touched the ground as he glided smoothly over the Churchill strip. He was a powerhouse galloping out, and wasn’t even blowing coming off the track.
Bob Baffert (who was having having problems lining up a rider for Louisiana Derby winner Wimbledon) had just seen something to make him forget his jockey woes. “All I know is that after watching Smarty Jones work today, we’re all in trouble,” Baffert said. Nick Zito, trainer of Derby starters The Cliff’s Edge and Birdstone, had seen Smarty Jones gallop at Keeneland earlier in the week, and all he could say was: “Whew! I can’t believe the way he attacks the ground.”
After the work, Martinez, who has been a major part of the Smarty Jones team, couldn’t stop raving about the colt. “When you’re undefeated, you know you’re the man,” he said. “I’ve been riding for 16 years and I know the feeling when a horse’s confidence level keeps rising and rising. I don’t think anyone really knows how good this horse is or how good he’s going to be. Right now, the Smarty Jones puzzle is coming together and people are starting to see what this horse is all about.”
Exercise rider Pete Van Trump added , “There’s just such an adrenaline rush to be on something like that. He’s so headstrong; all he wants to do is train. No matter what we do we can’t get him tired.”
No one could have known it at the time, but a legend was born on that Saturday morning before the Kentucky Derby, with Smarty Jones’ incredible story unfolding over the next six weeks that concluded with the nation’s new equine hero drawing a record crowd of 120.000 fans to Belmont Park to see if Smarty could become the first Triple Crown winner in 26 years.
Smarty Jones had become a national hero, with each chapter of his story so rich and ripe with emotion they were able to coalesce and form one of the epic tales of the Turf. Even Time magazine had their next cover reserved for him. Smarty’s legacy extended well beyond the racetrack. If you wonder why racing in Pennsylvania has thrived since the introduction of casino gaming you can thank the efforts of one chestnut racehorse and the phenomenon he created known as Smarty Mania.
To those who didn’t read it on here last year here are the links to part 1 and part 2 of my series “The Unforgettable Journey of Smarty Jones.”
But it’s time now to get back to the present and see if there were any workouts over the weekend that might have given us a clue who the 151st Kentucky Derby winner will be, and perhaps racing’s newest hero.
All Systems Go After Big Weekend of Works
As in most years, all the Derby horses went through their final works just as planned, bringing a smile to the faces of their trainers, who were either relieved and satisfied or ecstatic with the way they went. Most worked solo, having had their big works in company last week.
Here are just a few observations.
The most eye-catching work was Burnham Square’s five-furlong drill in :59 1/5 on Saturday when the track still had a lot of moisture in it and seemed tighter and faster than on Sunday when most of the works occurred. This colt has been eager and into the bit all week and he was relishing being let go. With his head down as usual he cut the corner turning for home beautifully and stayed down on the rail the whole way, going very smoothly and showing great extension while doing everything on his own. He continued to hug the rail on the gallop-out and kept up his strong pace a long way. He is a smallish unassuming looking gelding, but in action when he grabs hold of that bit he turns into a powerhouse.
It may sound trite saying this about the favorite, but everything Journalism does is so perfect it’s almost like it’s too perfect, as if he is programmed ahead of time and goes out there and does exactly what he’s programmed to do. Even looking at him just walking he makes you notice him; you know you’re looking at something different.
In his solo work Sunday he broke off smoothly and was not asked for speed, going his opening quarter in :25 4/5, but when given his head his stride increased noticeably and he began reaching out as if bounding off the ground. He went his next eighth in :11 4/5 and came home his final quarter in a rapid :23 2/5 with is ears straight up the entire way and jockey Umberto Rispoli’s hands perfectly still. He was then allowed to gallop out a long way, getting the six furlongs in 1:13 3/5, seven furlongs in 1:26 4/5, and pulling up a mile in 1:41 1/5. And these are supposed to be just maintenance works.
Sovereignty’s five-furlong work was similar in time, going in 1:01 4/5, but different in appearance, as he had a workmate to run at for a short while before blowing by him leaving him far behind in midstretch. He has an enormous stride with a higher kick and his rider was way up in the saddle letting him just stride out on his own with a final quarter in :24 flat and a more relaxed gallop-out. I can’t remember two Derby favorites being more of an eyeful than him and Journalism.
I will say this about the two most highly regarded speed horses, Rodriguez and East Avenue, it is controlled speed. They are anything but run-offs. Watching them in action I would say their biggest weapon is their class. Both had impressive five-furlong works with strong gallop-outs. Their works were smooth and effortless, and the way they cut the corner turning for home, you can tell how athletic they are. While Rodriguez went solo, East Avenue broke off about two lengths behind a workmate, and with him drawing post 12 with almost all the speed down on the inside I wouldn’t be surpised to see him sit just off the pace. He was timed in :59 2/5, galloping out six furlongs under no urging at all in 1:12 1/5. Rodriquez was never asked to run and cruised to the wire in 1:00 flat, and even being allowed to gallop out all on his own he still went in 1:12 3/5, up seven furlongs in 1:27.
A few notes on some other works. Although I’m not crazy about Grande having only one work in four weeks and his final work at Keeneland, I still really like this colt and he did seem to get a lot out of his five-furlong work in company with a pretty decent horse in 1:01. What I loved most about it were the fast and steady splits. After an opening eighth in :13, they picked it up going :12, :12 1/5, :11 4/5, and :12 and then galloping out in 1:13 2/5 with a :12 2/5 eighth.
If you’re looking for a reason to eliminate Final Gambit because he doesn’t handle the dirt, don’t bother. I don’t know how he will handle the kickback, especially breaking from post 3 surrounded by speed horses, but he has been powering over the dirt in his three works at Churchill Downs and in his gallops. While he seems to hit the ground a bit harder than he did on synthetic, he strides out beautifully over it and always seems to have running on his mind. This horse just doesn’t blow past his rivals in the stretch, he steamrolls past them and then keeps getting stronger. I can see that in his gallop-outs. He’ll run around again if you let him. All I know is that if he handles the dirt the way he did the synthetic in his last two starts and gets a fast pace, which seems like a sure thing, and gets an outside run, which he seems to prefer, watch for a gray streak to be coming late.
I only saw part of the stretch run and part of the gallop-out at Turfway Park, but I loved the way Chunk of Gold was striding out in his five-furlong work in :59 2/5. If you have followed the Derby Rankings you know I’m a big fan of this horse, who has yet to get the kind of trip he wants. More on him in Thursday’s handicapping analysis.
Sandman has done nothing wrong. He just goes out there and does his thing every morning with enthusiasm and never turns a hair. He doesn’t do anything spectacular, but does everything well.
And of course we have the coolest horse on the grounds, Coal Battle. He is like a wind-up toy. He stands like the proverbial statue at the gap checking everything out and posing for pictures. Then you wind him up and off he goes, lowering his head and grabbing the bit, and is all business, zoned in on what he’s doing. Then you shut him off and he walks calmly back to his barn. He has a short quick stride that likely gives him that quick turn of foot you’ve seen. And he’s also the most versatile horse in the race. He doesn’t care what track he’s on, what the surface is, what the pace is, and where he is, whether on the lead, three lengths back, or 10 lengths back. As I said he’s just a cool horse.
Citizen Bull worked five furlongs on Monday. Let’s just describe it this way. The rider took him five paths off the rail turning for home obviously to make sure he didn’t go too fast five days before the race and he still went in :58 2/5 after a half in :45 4/5 , and came down the stretch under no urging at all.
Finally we have American Promise, who worked five furlongs in :59 2/5 on Saturday. The main thing we can say about him is that he is fast without trying to be. He is an impressive specimen with a long body and long neck that he stretches out and moves effortlessly over the ground, as he did on Saturday with the rider’s hands well down on his neck. For a horse who probably stands around 17 hands he is pretty athletic, which you could see by the way he cut the corner galloping out after his work.
These Bets Will Put You in the “Red”
This is the one time you want your financial future to be in the red. Since 1973 the name of Secretariat, more affectionately known as Big Red, has become a part of our vernacular. The legendary champion has manifested himself in all forms of everyday life, whether it is discussions of greatness in any endeavor or just popping up on talk shows, sitcoms, or in commercials. You never know when, where, and how he will come up next.
In the Disney movie “Secretariat,” his groom Eddie Sweat says on the morning of the Kentucky Derby, “Hey, Kentucky, you about to see something that you ain’t never even seen before!”
Well, all you bettors out there, especially the ones who will wager on anything if the odds are good and the payoffs enticing, while having fun as well, the same can be said about a whole new way to bet the Derby… “you about to see something that you ain’t never even seen before.”
What if I told you that more than half a century since the chestnut champion took home the roses at Churchill Downs, you can still get a bet down on Secretariat? And no, this isn’t some fabricated computer race to see who would win a race among the all-time great horses. These bets are legitimate and pit Big Red against his most perplexing adversary – the human consciousness. And it is up to the bettors to lay their money down, not on the mishmash that is the Kentucky Derby, but on the various references made to Secretariat during the nationally televised NBC broadcast.
Welcome to the world of proposition bets. For years, this non-traditional form of wagering has been growing in popularity, especially overseas, and has now found its way to American sports. Technically a proposition or “prop” bet is defined as a wager that extends beyond the typical standards of winning or losing a sporting competition, and enters into the realm of whether a specific event or occurrence will happen or not. Enthusiastic sports fans might be familiar with prop bets associated with the Super Bowl such as which team will win the coin toss, who the MVP will be, or even the what color of Gatorade will be poured on the winning coach in the post-game celebration.
So when and in what form will Secretariat and his greatest feats enter into this whimsical and sometimes wacky way of wagering? At least in part through the words of the TV commentators, analysts, and Derby participants that will spill out into your living room or den. And if that seems too random for you, and you want to stick to good old fashioned handicapping, you can study all the speed figures and determine if this year’s Kentucky Derby winning time will be within 1.5 seconds of Secretariat’s seemingly untouchable record of 1:59.40. And, yes, you can actually place a bet on it along with:
- Will footage of Secretariat’s 1973 Kentucky Derby win be shown during the broadcast?
- Will a commentator refer to Secretariat as “the GOAT” of horse racing?
- Will a commentator ask whether Secretariat’s record will ever be broken?
- How many times will Secretariat’s Belmont margin of victory (31 lengths) be mentioned?
- How many times will someone say Secretariat during the broadcast?
- Will an owner, jockey, or trainer mention Secretariat in a post-race interview?
- Will Penny (Tweedy) Chenery be mentioned during the broadcast?
The seeds that sprouted this idea were planted by US Racing, a popular online horse racing service. In addition to breaking industry news by respected writers, US Racing provides information and official odds on over 350 racetracks around the world. And horseplayers will appreciate that US Racing publishes the odds of future bets on the Kentucky Derby or the Preakness Stakes earlier than any other racebook.
Now, if they wished to expand these wagers and base one on Big Red’s dominance in the breeding industry, perhaps they should take bets on how many times the name Secretariat is in the pedigree (standard five generations) of the Kentucky Derby winner. They could even make it an exacta and trifecta wager, selecting the correct number of times his name appears in the pedigrees of the first two and first three finishers. They would have a lot to work with, considering Secretariat is in the pedigree of all 20 horses in this year’s field.
So it you are totally confused about who to select in this year’s Derby field, at least take solace in the fact you can still place some bets on arguably the greatest horse of all time. For more information and how to place your bets, visit http://USRacing.com/Secretariat.
Racing historian, author, and award-winning retired journalist for the Daily Racing Form and The Blood-Horse, Steve Haskin was inducted into the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame’s Media Roll of Honor in 2016. Known for his racing knowledge and insightful prose, he has been an exclusive contributor to Secretariat.com since 2020.
Steve you must remember Mairzy Doates….she came out west and ran several times ..but she was a New York filly—in her final start—did she win the Japan Cup?….
Grande scratches out. East Ave moves towards the middle. Even with inclement weather he most likely be on a couple tickets.
Render Judgement reportedly has a quarter crack, no word on scratching out. One would think he’d be next out.
Rodriguez scratched. Baeza in.
Foot bruise
Thanks Tony, bad news, good news. Life is so anxious being a horse trainer especially with the pressure surrounding big races.
Yes, David. Lots of nervous folks at the CD barns during derby week. Good luck on Saturday. 💸
Thanks Tony, good luck to you as well. Fingers crossed the expected rain is minimal if at all.
My Tri Box- 3-7-8-13-18. I got Final Gambit coming from the clouds to catch Journalism for the win! You’re welcome.
Very insightful. Honestly, I don’t know if he can handle 10f with so much stamina in the race, but I like the “Cool Horse”. Best story of the year.
Sticking to the theme. It’s very simple. 😉
Journalism/Publisher. I could not have been written any simpler.
**it**
Good Cheer won by 17 lengths over sloppy. I’m sure that Brad C is doing a rain-dance. I’d pay good money to see that.
No offense, I’m an old guy myself, but at what time do we downgrade a horse’s chances because he has a 60ish jockey on his back? The Big Money Man has had an incredible career and seems like a very nice guy. Does he have another mile and a quarter in him?
Things were fairly easy in the Wood Memorial. I expect things to be a lot tougher in the Derby.
If Big Money Mike is able to win Derby 151, I’d love to see him make it a “mic-drop moment”. In the interview on the ride back to the Winner’s Circle, I’d like to see him announce his retirement. That would be going out in style.
I just can’t use him in my Derby trifecta. Again, no offense.
After the Wood, co-owner Tom Ryan said, “Mike got along well with Rodriguez yesterday, and that’s the key to it–understanding the horse’s mentality.” To me, that speaks volumes. Plus, Mike’s extensive fitness training regimen is well known. So I figure, if the Shoe could win at age 54 with Ferdinand, why not Mike at 59?
I just got back and was informed of the CP thread. That has been removed.
Five G has been scratched from the Kentucky Oaks. I’m still awaiting an official word on Take Charge Milady. A couple contributors have posted comments that she has scratched out of the Oaks, but I’ve seen nothing official in that regard.
If there’s anyone out there that can bring clarity on her current status, I’d appreciate hearing from you.
Thanks.
“Render judgement has a quarter crack, still probable for the Derby.” From twitter, apparently from Kenny McPeek.
Same person on twitter said McPeek says Take Charge Milady is good to go for the oaks. Also seeing the vet/trainer/owners are meeting about Owen Almighty.
Thanks for the reply, Northern Prancer.
I’m somewhat surprised that Take Charge Milady is a go for the Oaks.
Evidently, that abscess in her hoof has cleared up.
I’ll be looking forward to the latest news on Owen Almighty, I’ve got a Futures bet on him in Pool 6.
…”with $634,599 in the win pool at 8:30 EDT, Sandman was the second choice at 5-1″. Just below Journalism at 4-1.
Dang. People are reading my comments.
I had the fanduel feed going, and just feel so much compassion for Brian Lynch with Owen Almighty. He is such a neat person, and usually so friendly, but he turned the media away today. Then, he and the owners met with the vet and watched Owen jog. Could have been a regularly scheduled thing – they’ve been really on top of these horses this year. There also may be some kind of decision pending. I hope everything is and will be OK for the lovely Owen Almighty. The decisions made in horse racing are not always clear cut nor easy. It’s a hard and heavy sport in so many ways.
Wishing all the ponies and humans safety and good health! (And that includes y’all, my friends on the internet!)
Thanks Katy. Same to you. It’s a shame, and traumatic, to run a horse that can’t compete at this level. Especially a front runner.
Interesting comment Katy, I haven’t watched the “Breakfast at the Kentucky Derby” feed yet. I watch the “Morning Works Show” first.
With FanDuel coverage, isn’t Joe Talamo an absolute find for racing coverage. Talamo brings knowledge, humour and downright fun, his personality is infectious. Star quality.
Good Cheer for the win tomorrow!!!
I was thinking of using Grande in my Derby trifecta, but I don’t understand him only having one work going into the Derby. A sign that something is not quite right? A bruise or an abscess? Maybe Todd Pletcher thinks that the horse is right where he wants him physically and doesn’t want to mess it up.
Looking forward to Steve Haskin’s final thoughts and betting strategies later today.
As a long time Derby bettor, it always seems like there are thunderstorms in the area. Sometimes they hit, sometimes they don’t. Last year, or maybe it was the year before, they got the Derby in right before a big thunderstorm hit delaying the 14th and final race. That’s right. 26 races weren’t enough for me. I had to get down on the last one even with a half hour delay.
I will admit that I cut down my bets on “off” tracks. Not on the Oaks or Derby, but the other 25 races. I might even pass on some races. Races taken off the turf are always a difficult puzzle.
I’ll always remember Orb charging down the center of the track to win.
Chris McCarron riding Go for Gin to victory.
Would Orb or Go for Gin have won on a dry track? IDK.
Journalism has very good off-track breeding with Smart Strike in his pedigree. But, being a California horse, who knows if he has ever set foot on a wet track? Don’t they close the track for training when it rains out there? Or at least restrict training to their new synthetic training track?
Counter, you’re never afraid to put your opinions out there. In agreement regarding TP.
You have no idea what he feeds his horses and this post should be removed.
Anybody agreeing with you has a massive chip on their shoulder. I’m tired of the complaints about trainers and owners not acting in the best interest of their horses. You and other posters are nothing but bystanders in this, how does anybody know, you’re all guessing. Save the guessing for handicapping, not presenting “facts”. And why do complainers continue to be involved, I’ll tell you why, the lure of making money. You depend on these industry people for fun money all the while criticizing them. That’s hypocrisy. Get out if you don’t like it.
Hey Disco! Do you think Life At Ten is a fan of TP?
You’re treading on thin ice, too.
No one takes anything you say as relevant. You have nothing to do besides being an annoyance here 24/7. Haven’t posted in days, when I do… there you are lurking as always.
Oh. So you speak for everyone, huh? My posts are here for all to see and evaluate. So are yours, as useless as they always are. I’ve challenged you to post something intelligent. Still waiting.
You and intelligence have never met.Honestly believe you control this blog with your condescending attitude with most readers. Say hello to Barbara!
I hope you understand that I want you to continue posting your inanities.
None of us are privy to what goes on in the shed row. However, that’s not to say that some trainers bend the rules more than others.
TP, BB, PM, Doug O and many other big name trainers have been guilty of overmedicating some of their horses with legal therapeutics. Then, you have the Jason Servis’s and the Jorge Navarro’s that have taken it a few steps further.
Unfortunately, every sport has its bad apples…including TB racing.
I was taught you begin with a general statement—which you did—your premise is Pletcher is a cheat—after the general statement cones supporting details, and you always fail that part—zero supporting details, which makes your comment slanderous…..
Matthew, best of luck with your selections.
Pletcher’s horses win preps at a greater rate because the competition is light in comparison to the Kentucky Derby, which has all of the best 3-year-olds in training. Your allegations are baseless.
Pay no attention to Relva. He’s here only to brag about his private “horsey visits.”
The KY Derby may come up as a wet track. Journalism has a Tomlinson number of 426 which is excellent. He may be better on a wet track. Scary thought for everyone trying to beat the FAV. Love Journalism’s chance to win.
They roll down the cushion now…it’s not longer like it was…when Curlin spectacularly won the Classis—it was ankle deep mud, and slow….wet tracks aren’t like that anymore, for whatever reason they roll it down…deep closers are at a big disadvantage—I’m looking forward tp a dry surface! And a safe track!..
They’ve been sealing tracks for over 30 years. They do it to save the cushion, because it rains in the middle west and the east on a regular basis, especially in the spring and summer. You can have the sunny weather, droughts and water shortages.
Sealed tracks can and do ruin horses! I lived in Iregon, Portland Meadows was practically all sand—very tiring when dry but—it was made for rain, they never rolled it down it performed best when wet—my point being you really cannot handicap “mudders” like before. It’s a highway now….”saving the cushion”? More like REMOVING the cushion….
Ok don’t believe that it saves the cushion. They don’t seal it to annoy horse players. And they’ll never switch to all sand, running on sand would cause more injuries than a hard, sealed track.
Hey Steve: Enjoyed your description of Smarty’s work before the Derby. Maybe you can pique my memory as to whom wrote the works columns leading up to the 1986 Run for the Roses. All I know is that I love betting the trainers who only run if they can win, and Whittingham exemplified that. I remember Ferdinand just blooming day by day, and when writing about his final work , the clocker said something like “and as Ferdinand crossed the finish line a rainbow broke out over these historic downs.” That sealed the deal, and Willie Shoemaker executed (to me) the greatest Derby ride in Derby History. A nice cash for me and a great memory.
The only Derby coverage back then was Joe hirsch’s Derby Doings in DRF which I took over in 1994.
Thanks, Steve. I thought it was Joe but wasn’t sure. Looking forward to today’s column.
What does everyone think about Grande w/ Pletcher handling him w/ kid gloves in terms of not working out. Very rare for Pletcher who usually does not deviate from his program. I love Grande as a horse but this has me worried and confused.
He doesn’t seem fast enough overall, I hope I’m wrong.
There’s a large sampling of Pletcher horses running in the Derby. I wonder if anyone has the data or seen this pattern before going into the Derby with only 1 workout? Maybe it’s solely the owner making the call?
65 and a lucky 2 needs no analysis of pre derby works
Robert, I’ve been looking at just that particular body of evidence. The problem is that TP has had derby horses in the race 3, 4, and 5 weeks since the final prep. One thing I’ve found is that he TYPICALLY gives his runners their first work about two weeks after the final prep. The concern about Grande is that he didn’t work until 19 days after the Wood. The only Pletcher horse that was in the money in the derby and who DIDN’T work about two weeks after the final prep was Revolutionary. He was the second choice in the derby and finished third. He worked 22 days after the La Derby.
Maybe he’s going the opposite route of Kdby workouts. His w/o pattern for past runnings are not exactly eye openers. His record speaks volumes on this subject!
I think he’s a play for the lower exotics
I want to see how the track is playing with this uncertain weather forecast.
Anyone know how Churchill typically plays if we get a dried out track after a lot of rain?
Take Charge Milady, (entered in the Kentucky Oaks) has been dealing with an abscess on her hoof and hasn’t recorded an official work since her 2nd place finish in the Grade One Ashland Stakes, on April 7th. However, this morning she did gallop for trainer Kenneth McPeek, which leads me to believe the abscess has cleared up. I’m not convinced she’s 100%, but we should know in the next day or two if McPeek will run her in the Oaks, or scratch if that abscess has flared up again.
Bill Dawson–Take Charge Milady has been scratched.
Word has it that Take Charge Milady is a go in the Oaks.
Honor Marie son a desperate head bob today—5.80-1…..I saw him but stayed away from betting, I gave up on the guy—good to see him win..
I think he moved too soon – though Ben said HM dragged him to the lead, & got lonely. He really needed his last – this was such a happy surprise as I had no idea he was running, after his hard luck races last year, he deserved this
Why would you give up on him?
I gave up on BETTING him but not ROOTING for him
Churchill Downs….dries outbetter than any dirt surface—
This is not one of those years, when I see a bunch of horses that could surprise. Journalism lays over the field, in my opinion, with Sovereignty a strong 2nd—Rodriguez might get a trip—he has talent—I do not see anybody else winning! Not if these three get good trips….It might be Japan’s year, they nearly won in 2024—probably should have, and that was a stronger crop—this Derby looks weak, to me….
Hi Matthew , I agree that Journalism lays over the field. SAT unfortunately could be an off track. Being by Curlin, Journalism is expected to handle a wet track. 3 days till post! I’m singling Journalism in my P5. I can spread in the first 4 legs hoping to be alive to Journalism.
Well that’s one way of doing it—I thought you already have a huge 52-1 play—looks like you’re putting all your eggs in one basket.. I’ve seen it where a horse I bet in the #7 post got crushed, by the outside horses, going into the clubhouse turn…but if J gets a clean trip—and Risario waits, and doesn’t move into the early pace—I think you’ll be fine—that’s a couple of “if”s”!…
(Meant Ruspoli, sheesh!)
I don’t see sovereignty doing anything. Clearly a no play for me. Low BSF running against weak fields
Go ahead Jeff and bet the two horses from the same barn, please. Lol
You seem to focus on BSFs to the exclusion of EVERYTHING else. If you understood ALL published speed figures for preps, you’d know that Sovereignty’s figures are in line with derby success over the past 25 years or more. In fact, the horses with the best figures don’t win their fair share of derbies. And when they do win the derby, their odds are low (e.g. , Justify, Chrome, Big Brown). Then there’s how a horse actually looks in his races and training. And how the Florida Derby is the single most productive derby prep.
But the odds say that Sovereignty will likely lose, so you’ll be able to say “See!” when he does.
Weak fields? The preps in california wrre weakest of all and everybody thinks journalism is thecsecond coming of big red…he must be great! He beat all the bafferts so he must be…..but as it turns out none of the bafferts is anything special….
Exactly!
The only fields Journalism lays over are those in CA.
In the previous blog Steve featured three KD entrants. The Godolphin duo East Avenue
& Sovereignty and Journalism. In the current early wagering, East Avenue is way behind Journalism and Sovereignty. How much better are both than East Avenue?
DEBUT –
08/06/2024 – East Avenue won over 6F by 8L in 1:10.46
10/27/2024 – Journalism finished a closing 3rd by 2 /4L over 6f completed in 1:10.71
08/24/000 – Sovereignty finish a closing 4th by 3 1/4L over 6F completed in 1:10.46
START #2
10/05/2024 – East Avenue won the 8 1/2F Claiborne Futurity (G1) by 51/4L in 1:43.17
11/17/2024 – Journalism won an 8F MSW as the 3rd choice by 2 1/2L in 1:36.49
09/27/2024 – Sovereignty finished 2nd by a NK in an 8F MSW completed in 1:3.14
START #3
11/01/024 – East Avenue as the1/5 favorite, finished 9 of 10 by 13L in the BCJ (GI)
completed in 1:43.07
12/14/2024 – Journalism won the 81/2F Los Al Futurity by 31/L in 1:43. 04
10/27/2024 – Sovereignty won the 81/2F Street Sense (G3) by 5L in 1:43.86
All 3 colts made their debut over 6F But only East Avenue won. Whereas Journalism and Sovereignty steps up to 8F for their 2nd start, East Avenue steps up to 8 1/2F.
East Avenue won his first 2 races that included g a G1 by a combined 13L before Journalism made his losing debut and Sovereignty had only a 3rd place finish on his resume.
They all made their 3rd start in graded stakes over 8 1/2F. East Avenue in the BCJ (G1) as the 1/5 favorite, Journalism as the 3rd Choice in the Los Al (G3) and Sovereignty as the1/2 favorite in the Street Sense (G3). Whereas Journalism and Sovereignty recorded convincing victories, East Avenue finished 9 of 10 by 13L.
After their respective two starts. East Avenue clearly exhibited superior talent to that of his 2 development farm buddies. But by start #3 that superiority was no more. But where did it go? If the stronger and more mature AE shows up in his Futurity form. Neither Journalism nor Sovereignty will finish ahead of him. Can his trainer influence a recapturing of said form?
The Brendan Walsh trained Pretty Mischievous was sent off in the 2023 KY Oaks as the 5th choice off a 2nd place finish in the FG Oaks. She not only won the Oaks but also the G1 Acorn and Test.
Plus Que Parfait entered the 2019 Risen Star off a 5th place finish in the Lecomte. He got destroyed and finished 13 of 14 by 20L. After 2 graded stakes and a combined 27L defeat. The logical next move would have been a NW2 AOC. But the colt was shipped to contest and win the UAE Derby, He returned to the US to finished 9th in the KD by 5 1/2L
Brendan Walsh is a very capable trainer who will have East Avenue ready for battle. The colt has the speed and pedigree to record time of 2:02 plus. I cannot envisage the 2025 renewal of the KD retuning a time below same.
This race will be run in less time than it takes to read your diatribe. KISS
That’s the laugh of the day!
East Avenue reminds me of Fierceness- brilliant if things go his way.
I am willing to make a side wager with you. Should East Avenue win the KD, I will go on record to state that you are the best handicapper this side of the POND.
Should East Avenue NOT win. Please do NOT make another post until next year…under any monikers.
In my opinion East Avenue is best looking! Journalism is fine looking also, but Easty blows ne away, on looks….Sandman is another looker, alas—I think they will all be looking at Journalism ‘s flowing tail, on Saturday!
You’re just asking for a comeuppance.
I’m picking my horse…you pick your horse—Im wrong more than I’m right and so is everybody else in this sport….one thing I do know—win or lose, I love this sport…
I picked mine and I enjoy it too, you’re not the only one. The horses are the best part, by far.
I noticed that Mike Repole and Todd Pletcher have an unraced two year old filly named Baffle entered in the second race today at Churchill Downs. I still remember another horse called Baffle, a stable mate of Majestic Prince, winning the 1969 Californian Stakes at HollyPark over Arts and Letters. I was there seeing people actually high-fiving one another after the race….
Pletcher out if the top three 57 out if 65 starters…
That’s not good! On the other hand, he has two KD wins, and 14 trainers in this derby have never had a horse finish first in the KD.
With Grande coming out of the Wood, which has been a disappointment in recent years, too.
With a possibility of rain on Saturday, I’ve looked over the Brisnet PPs for their off-track pedigree info and for off-track performance lines. Sixteen of the 21 contestants show positive pedigree or performance (or both). Oh well!
Pedigree:
Citizen Bull
Final Gambit
American Promise (mud win at OP in Mdn; poor effort at CD in Mdn)
Journalism
Burnham Square
Grande
East Avenue
Tiztastic
Sandman
Sovereignty
Owen Almighty
Performance:
Neoequos–won 6f state-bred Alw at GP in slop
Admire Daytona–2nd by nose in $67k 1m stakes in Japan; 4th in debut in mud
Luxor Cafe–3 stakes wins on good track in Japan plus a 2nd on mud
Publisher–2nd in muddy Mdn at OP; 3rd in sloppy Mdn at CD
Coal Battle–won $100k stakes sprint in mud at Ded; won debut in sloppy Mdn sprint at Evd
Of the 11 pedigree runners, only American Promise has competed on an off track.
Only Neo, Admire, Luxor and Coal have run on sloppy tracks? Wow. I’d have guessed some others might have had some experience in the mud by now. But no. I’m still liking Final Gambit. The mud will affect the fast speedy types and perhaps choke off the rail, but the closers coming from off the pace with the long strides like Final Gambit who will go outside and around others won’t be slowed down. Let’s just hope that he loves mud in his face for the first few strides until the others go clear.
American Promise and Publisher, too (per my list above). FG is a mystery really. But Juddmonte doesn’t enter horses in the Kentucky Derby just for the hell of it.
Some very nice attention to Thoroughbred Aftercare this year!
Michael McCarthy has pledged a donation to Win Place Home.
Mike Repole will match donations up to $50K through 5/4 to Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance, so if anyone is so inclined, your donation could be doubled. AND winnings from the weekend could support this worthy cause to facilitate retraining or retirement maintenance.
Believe I’ll donate in honor of a few friends, both human and equine.
Well said. I’ve also been following rescues saving large breed workhorses from the kill pens. I think we can imagine where most of those originate. Each of these are worthy and overlooked causes.
Katy, thank you so much for mentioning this! I hadn’t heard. Love that Repole Stable is matching donations. I think I’ll donate in memory of a dear friend and racing fan who passed away last year.
I’ve grown to respect Mike Repole….he has a stable at Santa Anita—he does that because he sees how important it is to the sport that Santa Anita abides! In so many ways Mike Repole does right by this sport—he also does not duck a good horse—he runs his Fierceness on Sat, vs Locked and Hall Of Fame—Horse Racong can use a few more Mike Repoles!..
Did you watch the new triple crown series on Netflix? We do not need more Repole’s in this world. I have zero respect for him
And that is just your opinion. Does racing need you?
So many angles to cover. The Raise A Native sire line has produced 17 of the last 29 KD winners.
There are 10 qualifiers in this year’s field….
Journalism
Grande
Rodriguez
Burnham Square
Citizen Bull
Publisher
Sandman
Chunk of Gold
Owen Almighty
Baeza
Just for clarification, Chunk of Gold is from the Turn To sire line, not the RAN line.
In addition, Sandman is from the Bold Ruler/A.P. Indy sire line, not the RAN line.
Also, you failed to mention that Luxor Cafe is from the RAN sire line.
I know it’s early money, around $350k in win pool, but American Promise and Render Judgement are currently well below their ml at either 11-1 or 12-1! I kind of can see some early money on the Lukas horse…
Journalism currently 4-1!
Also, Sandman (5-1) getting bet, but not Sovereignty (12-1)
I’ll jump on Sovereignty at that price…I think Journalism is best, but 12-1 is too good to pass up—that’s a solid exacta box, 4-1 & 12-!….
Beware of major bet-downs in the derby. Recent history indicates it’s not “smart” money.
Render Judgment is all over social media because of his Toby Keith connection. His fans are posting articles about him. It’s hard for me to believe that those fans of his music have actually placed a bet, though. I don’t know where the actual money is coming from, but it’s likely to draw in some potential new viewers.
Oops, Fierceness will be running in the Alysheba.
On the day of the Kentucky Oaks, Forte will be running in the Alysheba Handicap Stakes.
Thoro-Graph sent out another update on Luxor Cafe today (April 30). Luxor paired up 3s in his last two races. He’s definitely a live horse if he runs to those figures.
Thanks for the update! Slight improvement puts him in contention
David, it looks like – as of now- Heart of Honor will be pointed towards the Preakness!
Thanks Betsy, wait and see I guess. Did you know Honor Marie won the Isaac Murphy Marathon at Churchill Downs today, by a head, that was fun.
Have you picked a 2,000 Guineas & 1,000 Guineas horse or two? I like Expanded in the 2,000 Guineas now that Twain is very doubtful. There are so many Wootton Bassetts in the field. Good, ha ha
In the 1,000 Guineas I’m hoping for some outsiders Bedtime Story, love the name, and Flight if they both start. Should know tomorrow or Friday.
How is the holiday? Have you been watching the Kentucky Morning Works & Breakfast at the Kentucky Derby on YouTube? Joe Talamo on Breakfast at the Kentucky Derby is really fun as a commentator.
Hi David!
No, I mean I asked – it looks like he’s coming. I know it doesn’t please you, but Jamie wouldn’t run if he didn’t think the horse was thriving
My HAP friend surprised be with the news about Honor Marie – I had no idea he was running!
I’m afraid racing is not much on my mind as I’m too busy. Today I went to the dentist thinking I could get my crown temporarily re-cemented, but I didn’t – dentist recommended waiting until I get home as I likely will need an implant. Plus, I just got back from Arundel on Tuesday
I like Wootton Bassett offspring even though I’m not familiar with him at ALL as a racehorse …was he good?
Sorry to hear about Twain – I love him just on his name alone!
I’m not…..I’m focused, sports wise, on my football team (American football). Shannon in my cottage with free time, I do occasionally check up on racing, but honestly, without a rooting interest in the Derby, I’m not overly invested
Holiday is great, weather has been incredible
Friday, I leave for North Yorkshire!
Betsy, Expanded is by Wooten Bassett owned and trained by the same lads as Twain – Coolmore & Aidan O’Brien – the big Four dominate European racing.
Wooten Bassett was similar to Siyouni – both brilliantly fast Group 1, 2 year old winners, in France. Same race in fact but Siyouni also won another Group 1 in France. They both are great matches with Galileo mares; hence, Coolmore bought Wooten Bassett, the Aga Khan would never part with Siyouni at any price.
Wooten Bassett used to stand in France. Coolmore’s Champion son by Siyouni, St Mark’s Basilica, has his first crop running this year and you are there to see them!! Something to remember.
St Mark’s Basilica is Coolmore’s hope to replace Galileo, his yearlings were outstanding and went for astronomical prices.
David, thanks!
I love the name Wootton Basset, lol…. So he and Siyouni are both off to amazing starts
I remember when SMB was running…now he’s already got babies!
Betsy, both are elite sires now. Siyouni is 18 now and Wootton Bassett is 17. Wootton Bassett’s mares have improved dramatically since moving to Coolmore.
Yes, St Mark’s Basilica has 2 year olds running this year and you are there to see them take their baby steps. Exciting +
Indeed!
Maybe I’ll see one of them at York!
Betsy, more likely Royal Ascot June 17 – 21. Mark those days on your calendar.
I could see Baeza winning if he gets in if not for that dreadful post. If he does get in, and I still think he will, Baeza will be breaking from just inside the fence that keeps drunken fans off the track. Baeza is no Rich Strike. By that, I mean that he hasn’t shown a huge closing kick like Rich Strike did on the day. Where’s Sonny Leon when you need him?
I watched the DRF Webinar that featured Brad Free, Andy Beyer, and Steve Crist. No surprise that Andy Beyer picked Journalism with that 108 BSF two races back and Burnham Square as his second selection with that nice rising numbers pattern.
But there were some surprises. Brad Free picked Baeza on top even though the horse is not officially in the race YET. Apparently, not at all worried about the wide post if he gets in. It might be a “protest pick”. All three handicappers are outraged that Baeza is not in the race YET and that horses from the Jeff Ruby Steaks Stakes run over synthetic and that horses from Colonial ARE in the race.
Steve Crist picked Grande on top. A nice longshot IMO. He showed that he can come from behind in his last race. Grande will be carrying Todd Pletcher’s dismal Derby record on his shoulders though.
Here is what I have for Brad Free, Andy Beyer and Steve Christ… the Flying Fickle Finger of Fate …. sit on it !!!
Agreed Down.
Good interviews; Crist opinion on Blue Grass and Florida Derby is toss them! Agree! Rodriguez is a must play
Beyer isn’t someone I pay attention to.
Rain has been in and out of the weather forecast for both Friday and Saturday in Louisville. It has entered the picture again.
A wet track could be the great equalizer.
Journalism has terrific wet track breeding with Smart Strike in his Pedigree. But you never know until they actually get on an “off” track.
Interestingly, Luxor Cafe has 3 wins on “good” tracks and a very good second over a “muddy” surface.
Journalism has a big figure advantage.
Journalism ran the best final prep by far.
Journalism looks the best physically.
Journalism is Steve’s #1.
Me thinks bad racing luck is Journalism’s only real opponent in this race.
Longshot Hunter or Chalk Hunter? I’m confused. No offense.
My longshot is East Avenue Tommy. Just saying Journalism looks tough to beat here.
Fierceness had the big figure advantage.
Fierceness ran the best final prep by far.
Fierceness wasn’t physically the best, but he didn’t need to as the KD isn’t physique contest.
Fierceness was Steve’s #1
Fierceness finished 15th by 24lL.
The best counts in the KD.
Counter Point– Fierceness will be running in the Alysheba on Kentucky Oaks day.
Terri, I thought he looked great on track this morning!
Katy–Thanks for the info. I think he’s matured quite a bit–mentally and physically. Johnny V knows how to deal with Fierceness. As an alpha male, JV lets him decide when to make his run; otherwise, he won’t run his race.
Incidentally, only Johnny V and Mike Smith knew how to get a Wesley Ward filly to win named Judy The Beauty. She would only win if either one was on her otherwise she would run second.
A lot of that is true. But they are worlds apart in the way I felt about their chances in the derby.
Here are a couple of Derby favorites that I will always believe were the best in their crops. Neither got it done on the first Saturday in May. These two are horses that I always think of when I am leaning toward backing the Derby favorite, which is the case this year.
1991 Hansel: 10th with no excuses.
I had Strike The Gold that year, and Hansel broke my heart for the remaining Classics. Hansel was such a looker! After a lot of travel as a stud, he went home to Upperville and lived like a king to a ripe old age.
2001 Point Given: 5th in the second fastest Derby.
He just refused to be denied after the Derby. Retired with a tendon injury after his win in the Travers, he was voted 3 y/o champion colt and HOTY. He went to stud and did ok, and later took up residence at the Horse Park when he was pensioned in 2017. He died at age 25.
I didn’t include others that swept the Preakness/Belmont (such as Risen Star and Afleet Alex) because neither went off as the Derby favorite.
3 of the best horses in the world were in the Derby last year and didn’t get it done: Sierra Leone, Forever Young, Fierceness. I actually felt like Union Rags was the best horse in his field but a timid ride by his jock.
With you on those two horses. I asked Gary Stevens about Point Given and he said “honestly I have no idea why he ran that bad.”
For what it’s worth, my KY Derby picks…
10-Grande: 2/2 w/ Johnny V aboard, got a real nice T-G# in stakes debut, hoping the 3rd year in a row can be charm for Repole.
6-Admire Daytona: Did his d@mn good damsire Shackleford proud in UAE Derby.
11-Flying Mohawk: Got outclosed by Final Gambit in J. Ruby, still got a 102 BrisLP#.
21-Baeza: gotta include, if he draws in.
“May the horse be with you!”-Harvey Pack
Unlike many, I was not blown away by Journalism’s performance in the Santa Anita Derby. I agree that he ran a good race, that he will be the Derby favorite, and that he might win. But I’m not ready to drape him with roses yet. I could say the same for Sovereignty. For the past two years, I’ve picked favorites in the Derby–not because they were favorites but because I had loved Forte and Fierceness since they were two-year-olds. That resulted in one late scratch and one fifteenth-place finish. While I know that every race is different and you can’t judge one by another, I’m not even tempted to go that route again.
For me, this is a good year to look at longshots–which I define as anyone not named Journalism or Sovereignty. That leaves eighteen or nineteen horses, and you can make a case for almost any of them. The race becomes wide open, and sentiment and imagination can come into play. So can the fact that four recent Derby winners have had odds of 50-1 or better.
Publisher impressed me in the Rebel and he impressed me more in the Arkansas Derby. I don’t care if he’s a maiden–I like his finishing kick, and he may be the most overlooked horse in the field. He’s also a sentimental choice because of his people. Irad Ortiz and Steve Asmussen both have extremely impressive resumes which do not include a Kentucky Derby. They deserve one, and Saturday is a good time to get it. I’ll be cheering for them.
Baeza may not get into the race and if he does, he won’t be much of a longshot, but he’s still my second choice. I was impressed by his performance in the Santa Anita Derby, and I like this horse a lot. I like him, I like his mother, I like his namesake, I like his brothers, and I want him to honor them all with good performances. If he doesn’t get a chance to do that on Saturday, I wish him well when he does.
My third choice is a little harder, but I’m taking Sandman. I think there will be a very fast pace, and I’m looking at closers. I don’t know where Baeza would choose to run–if he gets to run–but Publisher and Sandman should be coming from well off the lead, and I hope they have spectacular finishes.
I know I’m going way out on a limb, but I like being there. I’m really looking forward to Saturday–Derby Day is my favorite day of the year, and I hope it will be safe, happy, and exciting for everyone. Enjoy! .
Jiffy, then you were’t ‘blown away’ by the others he beat???
Final Gambit certainly fits the bill as a deep, deep closer. His late pace figure of 112 says it all, followed by Journalism at 109. The Classic distance will not be a problem for this Not This Time colt, and the Belmont Stakes would certainly be within his reach.
I’ll be shocked if he goes off at his morning line odds of 30-1.
I must confess that I’m a sucker for deep closers, especially at the Classic distance, in which case I’ll be using Final Gambit in a few of my exotic wagers.
Final Gambit is currently at 17 to 1 according to the Kentucky Derby Live Odds page…
Final Gambit will be passing a lot of horses in the homestretch if the half mile is ran in 45 and change and the 6 furlongs in 1:10 and change…
The son of Not This Time looks ready to uphold the excellent record of Juddmonte in the Derby… key play for the exotics indeed!
Thanks for the reply, Nelson
I’d appreciate any thoughts you might have Good Cheer in the Kentucky Oaks. I keyed on top in my superfecta p/w wager with five other horses’ underneath that look promising, IMO.
Thanks, Nelson.
Hi Bill…
Good Cheer’s best weapon is her tactical speed. This would be key to defeat all her main rivals who got early speed… and she is the best equiped for the distance.
The way Good Cheer defeated Quietside back in November at Churchill was a true forestate of her great talent…
Good Cheer should win under the energetic hands of Luis Saez… and very easily I would add…
Medaglia d’Oro is a proven sire of great fillies and Good Cheer is another example…!
After seeing her this week I will put her on top in my Superfecta with five others beneath (2/3/6/9/14)…
Good luck in all your bets on this coming sensational weekend of racing !
Thanks for the reply, Nelson.
Yes indeed, Good Cheer appears to be the horse to beat, in which case I’ll key her top in my superfecta p/w wager, (just as you plan of doing).
I noticed you will be using Fondly underneath, in your wager, even though she hasn’t been class test in a graded stakes race. In addition, you excluded La Cara, winner of the G1 Ashland Stakes, for reasons I’d be interested in knowing about.
BTW, I’m still awaiting word on Take Chage Milady’s current status, (go or no go in the Oaks)?
Good luck with your selections, Nelson.
Andy Beyer has selected Journalism to win. There’s a bad omen for those who are confident with Journalism.
I know Andy has his critics for his picks and some statements, but his enthusiasm for racing evident in his first two books is infectious, and I sometimes return to them when my own enthusiasm wanes.
Yes, Todd, in the 70s, 80s his speed theory was fresh. Now, the theory has been surpassed by other more wholistic approaches.
I was just surprised Journalism got the nod.
No surprise there. Andy is going to pick the horse with the highest speed figure assigned by his team.
His KD record for the past 20 editions is very weak. 3 correct win picks out of 20.
Thanks Zanytactics, I know he often picks ‘odd selections’ but I didn’t realise he just picked the highest speed figure. Live and die by the sword, I guess.
Whats your derby record the last 20 years?
Or good omen for him to hit a Derby winner this time… it is time.
Good point, Nelson and good luck to you.
Davids, let’s hope he didn’t jinx the horse.
I still have my Smarty Jones shirt they gave out.
Journalsim over
Rodriguez
Grande
Luxor Cafe
Citizen Bull
Can’t wait for Nysos return.
The Derby City Distaff and Kopion
Good Cheer is a good steady horse. I see someone else winning, most likely Tenma
I hope all have a great weekend!
Thank you Steve for always giving your faithful great story telling and great opinion and great writing.
Long time reader of you racing observations. I have been a Derby fan since my 1950’s childhood, but it wasn’t until 1999 that I started to learn the the skills of handicapping and betting the ponies. After reading your pre race analysis I concluded that Charismatic was a viable long shot at 30/1 and made a nice score. Naturally a fan of yours since that memorable day. Living in Tx and our stupid online betting laws, my old body can’t make the trek to the state tracks anymore. My fantasy bet is —Journalism, Grande, and Rodriguez trifecta box.
Thanks very much Gary. Good luck
Anyone interested in VERY early wagering on the KD you can check out Twin Spires. So far there’s 184K wagered and as usual a few of the longshots are getting some early action. As for two of the favs, Journalism at 4-1 and Sovereignty at 11-1.
TVG has current odds as well, for both the Oaks and Derby
RE: Kentucky Oaks
One thing for sure, there’s plenty of speed in this race, which could be a nice setup for a closer like Take Charge Milady, at 12-1. She was closing on La Cara in the Ashland and
probably would have caught her had the race been at 9 furlongs.
However, the undefeated filly, Good Cheer will be going for her 7th straight win and is clearly the one to beat. There are five other fillies that I’ll use underneath Good Cheer in my $1.00 superfecta p/w wager. They are: La Cara, Five G, Tenma, Take Charge Milady and Quietside.
That is: 11/ 7,8,9,10,14/ 7,8,9,10,14/ 7,8,9,10,14
I’ll flip that over and play an additional p/w wager as follows:
7,8,9,10,14/ 11/ 7,8,9,10,14/ 7,8,9,10,14 (in hopes that Good Cheer will at least finish 2nd in case she doesn’t win the race).
Each superfecta p/w wager will cost $60.00
Safe trips to all.
Thanks Bill. I love the big races, but my heart is always with the fillies. In 2025, haven’t really followed as much as in past years due to job and family responsibilities but wishing a decent track and safe trips to all, 4 legged and 2. And as always, love some sidebar comments on the girls.
You’re welcome, Angela
BTW, if Take Charge Milady is a late scratch, due an abscess on her hoof, I’ll replace her with Simply Joking in my Superfecta P/W wager.
edit: due to an abscess.
I was thinking the same thing about Take Charge Milady… I also like 5-Quickick to spice up the exotics in the Kentucky Oaks.
A $40-Superfecta for me would be:
11-Good Cheer/9-Tenma
11-Good Cheer/9-Tenma/
6-Ballerina d’Oro/7-La Cara/10-Take Charge Milady/14-Quietside
2-Simply Jocking/6-Ballerina d’Oro/5-Quickick/7-La Cara/10-Take Charge Milady/14-Quietside
I would like to see an Oaks/Derby double for Godolphin this year ….!
Oh! I just saw the scratch of Take Charge Milady… I am also replacing her with 2-Simply Jocking which reduces the cost of the Superfecta to $32 … migth include 3-Fondly with Irad Ortiz at the bottom to make it $40.
Thanks Nelson Maan–Oh no, something must be off with Take Charge Milady. I hope she becomes a blue hen like her grand dam Take Charge Lady. Kenny McPeek has been the trainer of both Lady and Milady.
False alarm…
Nelson
Please let me know where you saw that Take Charge Milady has scratched.
This morning, she galloped for Ken McPeek, so I was thinking she might have recovered from that hoof abscess. I’ve checked around all day looking for something official on her current status but found nothing.
Thanks, Nelson
She is not scratched yet … but I suspect that she won’t pass the strict veterinarian scrutiny pre-race…
Oaks $2 tri/box play
#6 Ballerina d’Oro
#9 Tenma
#11 Good Cheer
$.50 super/box…$12 play
#6 Ballerina d’Oro
#9 Tenma
#11 Good Cheer
#7 LaCara
Steve thanks again for taking us along on the road to the roses. I can remember back in the day, you know, before the internet. A junky like myself had to venture down to Bulldog newsstand in the Pike Place Market and look for anything he could find in Turf Magazine and The Bloodhorse. I badgered poor George Cottrell, who worked at the newsstand and as a writer/handicapper for the DRF, every Sunday inquiring about the latest edition of these publications. Sometimes it had but they just hadn’t gotten around to putting it on the shelf. It was then that I came across Steve Haskin and his Derby Dozen. I struck gold and I knew it. I would head to the third floor of Lowell’s Cafe in the market, wait for my breakfast and read every last detail and greedily I might add. Nobody I knew in my pony barn had even heard of this publication. I had a leg up or as George Costanza put it, I had hand. And it’s been that way ever since. Oh sure, far more eyes gaze upon his barn wisdom, and enjoy this joyous season of handicapping on the road to the Roses, but I still have hand, and boy are we all going to need it this year.
I always enjoyed talking to George at the Pike Place newsstand when I would go buy a Derby day racing form on Oaks morning. Was almost late to work a few times we were so busy talking about our Derby picks. Fortunately I subscribed to the Blood-Horse, so I had ready access to Steve’s Derby Dozen and didn’t have rely on finding it at the newsstand.
The SA Derby just popped up on my youtube feed, so I watched again. I don’t think this is close. How many times was Journalism stopped? Then he picked himself up after the field got away while he was blocked and just went and got them. Journalism has something none of the others have proven: he is a racehorse who wants to win. The numbers Journalism received for the SA Derby are misleading. He shouldn’t have been able to win with that trip. I see Rodriguez as the horse who makes a run for the lead on the turn and Journalism jumps right on him. Burnham Square and American Promise should run well.
Todd Vaughn, I watched that again this morning, too. I’m in complete agreement with you about Journalism. His athleticism and level-headedness were incredibly impressive in that race. When I see him, I just cannot help thinking that he is extremely special: a band stallion, not an upstart bachelor.
In action, he reminds me of American Pharoah. It’s the efficiency and ease of his stride. (I have also noticed that his tail is a bit scraggly, which is an amusing similarity.)
Because winnowing this down to even half the field has been hard for me, I am going to add Final Gambit to your four as the other closer I’ll watch – especially if the half goes :46 or less.
All that said, no amount of evidence pointing to distance limitations and numbers that should indicate bounce can make me stop loving Coal Battle.
Definitely would be thrilled with a Coal Battle win or placing, even while losing my bets.
I like him, too. I’m a sucker for an underdog/dark horse. I also cheer for the Japanese entries just because they have Sunday Silence in their ancestry.
Same here, Fuzzi, regarding Sunday Silence…. one of my all time favorites.
Fuzzi, me too – definitely the Sunday Silence angle here, too. More variety to the sirelines is a good thing! I expected to like Luxor more based on that last race, but it’s Admire Daytona who has captured my eye.
Good Cheer at 6-5 seems too low in the Kentucky Oaks. The only knock that I have on the undefeated Filly besides the 6-5 ML odds is that she has never run in a Grade 1. But then I notice that there are only two Grade 1 winners in the field. They would be the 6-1 second choice La Cara and BB’s longshot Tenma(12-1). Clockers are raving about La Cara’s workouts. Too fast so close to race day? Maybe. Tenma won her Grade 1 at the end of the Del Mar Summer meet last September. It’s been a while. She has won 5 of 6 races against some questionable competition. But she can only beat what they put in front of her. Personally, I haven’t been too impressed with her. Even in her easy wins. I thought she would be one of the favorites and I saw her as a bet against. Wrong! But 12-1 could make her worth a play. She can’t go off at 12-1 can she? CAN SHE?
Frankly, I don’t have a very good feel for the race. I feel better about the Derby.
Bad signs, man. Santa Anita has already canceled the $1million California Crown after only one year. They didn’t give it much time to take hold. It didn’t draw a very big field this year. The race will still be run under an old name with a substantially smaller purse.
I’m seeing quite a few California horses over Friday and Saturday at Churchill. Not just from the BB barn. Some have pretty good chances IMO.
Not good for Santa Anita that they are leaving California for the bigger purses.
How low will the odds on Journalism go? Most people feel like 5-2 will be the final number. I think that 2-1 could be in play. The Journalism frenzy is real.
Steve,
First of all thanks for what you for us in this forum. You make me think a little bit more about a horse I might have overlooked and you always have great insight. I liked the piece about Smarty Jones… real gets the blood flowing.
Here is my takes on the works
American Promise
Honestly his last work was not what I was expecting based on what Lukas said was going to happen. I was expect 5 furlongs in 1:01 to 1:02 but blew me away in 59+. But he did it so easy…. deceptively fast
Burnham Square
He just keeps impressing me. He is jumping out of his skin wanting to run. His work was exactly what I was looking for.
Tappan Street
Perfect work but unfortunately the injury
Chunk of Gold
He had the work I was looking for and has looked good on dirt so far
Sovereignty
He looks great and got a typical Bill Mott work. Not flashy but productive. Washyness seems to have calmed down
Final Gambit
Did not like his final work but it was the gallop out that really caught my eye. It was like looking at 2 different horse. Once his workmate pulled out of the work FG just took off and looked real strong… I am really on the fence with him
——————- Next
The Beauty Contest
If the Kentucky Derby were to be a beauty contest for horses the final 4 would come down to the following:
Citizen Bull
Compact and fully muscled and Coat Glistening. Last work was effortless and really seems to like this track. He has the 1 post and has the shortest route from start to finish. Big question can he get the distance
Journalism
He looks fabulous and last work was what I expected. What can be said that hasn’t been said already. If comparing to a lady the Catherine Zeta Jones of the field.
Sovereignty
He too is another looker. If one thing Bill Mott does best he really knows how to make horses look great.
American Promise
This is the Lou Ferrigno/ Arnold Schwarzenegger of horses. Big and built and has a beautiful coat also smooth mover
————————–
Surprise, Surprise, Surprise
Back in the 60’s there was a TV show called Gomer Pyle USMC starring Jim Nabors.
It was marine named Gomer and Jim played the character, Gomer. Whenever Gomer had a surprise for his sargeant who was named Sgt Carter. He would always yell out Surprise , Surprise, Surprise… This is the way I would feel if any of the following horse would win the KD.
Owen Almighty
although I thought his works looked OK feel he is overmatched here
Coal Battle
This is the feel good horse of the derby. Although I felt he was ahead of the class at the beginning of the year I think all the other horses have caught up to him now. Just don’t think he is good enough to win
Neoquos
Will be dying in the stretch
Sandman
This is the 0 — FOR horse. O for 3 that CD, Trainer: Casse 0 for 10 in KD, Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr 0 for 7 KD and has the 17 post 0 for winners
Not impressed with his work.
Flying Mohawk
Looks ok just think he is just a cut below the best
Render Judgement
Too Little too late
Hey I have been wrong many a times and if I am wrong about the above Like I saidn it wont be the first time
————————-
The AH – SO pair
The Japanese horses look OK just haven’t shown me much. Not sure what to do with them. But have to say I loved Luxor Cafe last race. But who did he beat… On the fence with them
—————————
Mystery horses
Asmussen pair … Tizstastic and Publisher
Like what I have seen of Publisher but Tiz not too sure about him … on the fence with both
Grande
Looks very good but like Steve, concerned about lack of works… may play him in exotics. Love his pedigree. Type of running style Todd Pletcher can win the derby with.
East Avenue
If he wins it will have to be off the pace. He will get buried on the front end if he tries.
Well this is my take on the works. Still working on my betting strategy… more to come.
Update on Beauty contest (since I did say it was a beauty contest) Their human comparison.
Citizen Bull — Dolly Parton , beauty with spunk
Journalism — Catherine Zeta Jones , dark hair & eyed beauty
Sovereignty — Sofia Loren, Like a fine wine
American Promise — Jayne Mansfield, Beauty , built and brains
Downthestretch, OMG! You had me at Catherine Zeta Jones!!
Drats that Michael Douglas got to her first !!!!
You like heavyset horses.
The face of Coal Battle is one for the ages in the racehorse world.
DTS, you are using the XXs when you should be using the XYs for comparison.
Citizen Bull—The Hulk
Journalism—Sean Connery
Sovereignty—Ryan Reynolds
American Promise—Chris Pine
Downthestretch, remember a couple of weeks ago I suggested to ‘expect the unexpected’? Hence, it is the reason I’m opting for Sandman at this moment. The time is ripe to fill in these zeros with a positive number….you have a good horse, a horse that has endured troubled trips and knows how to win, a good trainer and a good jockey. Expect the unexpected.
Wish you well John with your pick. You never know in the KD. Rich Strick, Mine that Bird , Birdstone …. who knows
John. If Sandman gets a clear run 2f out he will scare the ‘hell’ out of the rest of them. ‘Goodnight, Vienna.’
I agree, but add Tiztastic and Publisher and make it a threesome on the way home. Just not sure who is going to endure to the wire. Too much hype on horses that cannot do the distance. Also, time for Tapit DNA to win out.
Yes William, I like Tiztastic as well along with Journalism. Agree with you about too much hype – in the Kentucky Derby inevitably one of the ‘forgotten’ horses places or wins even. It’s a 20 horse field.
Really fun post, Downthestretch. I am absolutely floored by your stamina to compose it in the comment box!
Carpal Tunnel acting up but nothing but a little “Bute” can take care of . (LOL)
Did anyone catch the interview with D. Wayne talking about the final work for American Promise? Steve – I am hoping you can tell us from your relationship with Mr. Lukas how prone he is to hyperbole! He said it was the single best work of any horse he has brought to the Derby…
My brother pucked up on this a long time ago—Wayne always says his horse cannot be doing better–he is always supremely positive about his chances…
D Wayne is quietly confident about this horse
Not much point being down in the mouth when you’re competing in the Kentucky Derby. Ha ha
Wry, haha.
I was definitely interested to see the replies on this.
Just as to Wayne in general, his tenacity gives me hope for aging. I am always so glad that when they interview him, he is clearly on the ball, and still looking for new ways to get to an old goal.
It Looks Like I will HAVE to bet somehow, someway, on Big Red. Along with Kentucky Basketball He is my all time favorite…..,………anything.!! He is the GOAT., and always will be! Of course his Belmont record will NEVER be broken.
For those following Thoro-Graph figures, I just got an update on the Japanese horses courtesy of my $25 Derby/Oaks subscription.
Admire Daytona
4.25, 6, 8, 9
Luxor Cafe
Last race: N/A
3.75
6.5
9.5
Have no idea why they don’t have a fig yet for Luxor’s last race, but bet it was an improvement over the 3.75.
2.5 I believe for Luxor Cafe last race.
I saw that figure earlier myself, but the second update I got today says 4.
Bob—a Nan who has won several Derbies….has said if you can’t gallop out under 1:27, in your final work–you won’t win the race…Citizen Bull worked much faster—he galloped out 1:27 1/5—Journalism galloped out 1:26 4/5, after working nearly THREE seconds slower, he is sitting on “See you later”!..
Did anyone see Steve Asmussen being interviewed about his two? He got practically giddy when they asked about Publisher. He is always so measured and chill, but he got kind of giggly about Publisher! It was nice (and maybe a little scary) to see him being so human. Maybe he has a feeling about that one.
I did, and he even seemed a bit like he was going to prove the doubters wrong about his being a maiden—I thought last week’s work he looked real strong, easily handling Tiztastic—
I thought he looked really good, too! Would not hurt my feelings to see him have his break-through racehorse moment on Saturday.
BTW, did you see that our girl Sweet Azteca has been back on the work tab, and they’re trying for a comeback? Hope some time off was just the thing.
I thought Sweet Azteca was a superior filly sprinter..
She was something else when she was rolling! I hope she can be again. New trainer.
I’ve seen several Asmussen interviews the past two weeks. Found it odd that the first thing he always says about Publisher is that nothing bothers him. Doesn’t exactly exude confidence. Maybe he’s not showing his cards, I don’t know.
I liked his Arkansas, but if you cost $600K, are managed by the winningest trainer in the game, and have ran no better than 2nd in two of seven races, maybe you’re just not a horse who likes to run.
I one thing I couldn’t find is why Flavien jumps off Publisher. Anyone know?
Maybe Baeza is his first choice but to pass up a confirmed starter for 3rd on the AE list?
Good morning, Steve! Happy Derby week! Thank you so much for the stories and analysis through the whole Winter and Spring. I find it hard to put into words how much I love this page. Just so appreciative that you and Leonard are willing to do this for us week after week. ❤️
I think the Secretariat wagering is hilarious and brilliant! It seems like this could be derived from college drinking games. (This is SC, and we are sort of famous for our many party schools.)
This field is under my skin, plain and simple. I just really LIKE these colts, and hope to see them in long and successful careers. I haven’t liked as many in the group since… maybe 2005 or 2007? I had a hard time picking those years, too.
Thanks again! Hope your restored vision is treating you well, too!
You put it in words just fine Katy. Thank you.
Journalism appears to be the best horse, but this is a race not a coronation. So what are the most realistic scenarios where he doesn’t win, and who is it that beats him?
I’m going to assume he breaks well and gets into position. My guess would be somewhere around 8-12 position on the backstretch. Interestingly, the Timeform pace projector has him wayyy back tied for third last at the 4f call beside Sandman, behind Tiztastic, and only Final Gambit and Sovereignty trailing him (Japanese horses not included).
So, if it’s not Journalism, how does he get beat, and by whom?
Honestly, he has been the fastest horse so I think his chances of being beat come down to a bad break (or a horse next to him breaking smack dab into him which happens a lot in the Derby) or a monster performance by a rival. The most likely to accomplish the latter might be Grande who has been lightly raced and might be something special – also a Curlin – or American Promise who might be growing into his frame at the right time and could get a stalking position and get first jump. Another possibility is that Mott has Sovereignty ready to run his very best race on a track that he has shown he can pass horses like they are in reverse (Street Sense). Watching that race again reminded me that he gained 5 lengths on the field in about 5 seconds…
I’ve been thinking about that myself. The most likely horses Journalism won’t be able to pass would be Rodriguez, American Promise, Grande or one or both of the Japanese horses. I think the only horse that can catch him from behind would be Sovereignty who has the paired Thoro-Graph.
Good point on the Japanese horses. It is “when” and not “if” that a Japanese horse will win the Derby… I prefer Admire Daytona of the two due to his pedigree but the track record of horses coming from the Desert to Churchill is atrocious.
Picks
Chunk of Gold
Tiztastic
Final Gambit
Grande
Journalism
Sandman
Luxor Cafe
Publisher
Thank you Steve for all your knowledge and Friendship
Chris
Oaks
5G
Bless the Broken
Good Cheer
Simply Joking
La Cara
Anna’s Promise
I’m still learning handicapping and came across a question about Luxor Cafe in my research. It seems that he did not change leads in 2 of his last 3 races including his January win and most recent win in March. He still won both by at least 5L. But is this anything that would be deemed a negative, or something to take pause on if we like him? There’s a lot to like about this colt, but bottomline for me is what might this say about him at this stage in his career? Apparently, he’s also shown a dislike for kickback earlier in his career, but I could not find further data about that as he’s progressed. Thanks.
Steve, I forgot, which fillies have impressed you for the Oaks?
CDI deserves a lot of criticism but their cards for Oaks Day and Derby Day are top class. Well done.
LA Cara has been training. Ballerina d’Oro interesting longshot
Oops training awesome
Steve,
Can’t agree with more about La Cara.
She looks like the energize bunny on steroids. So light on her hoofs … like a gazelle!!!
Thanks, Steve. Interesting, can Mark Casse do a Kenny McPeek? I like Quietside and Fondly but Simply Joking and La Cara could run away with the Lillies.
Please no rain.
Steve, I couldn’t agree more the morning works shows, although fabulous to watch, have become a race within a race. The horses that look spectacular to the majority of media commentators become ‘hot gossip.’ They can’t wait to drop superlatives left, right, and centre.
If Journalism doesn’t win the Kentucky Derby, a conspiracy theory will no doubt be unleashed so that the racing ‘influencers’ who got it wrong can save face. lol. I’m only half jesting here, seriously.
As you wrote Steve, there are so many colts in the field that have looked outstanding in their workouts you could tout 10 individuals and still get it wrong. Once you would spot an Orb, I’ll Have Another, American Pharoah, California Chrome and Smarty Jones, as Steve has mentioned, who looked a certainty in the works that you could place a massive bet to win and just wait to collect. Not so this year.
I’m sticking with the colts I was impressed with last year and this year: Sandman, Journalism, and Tiztastic and who doesn’t want Coal Battle to win. Sovereignty looks spectacular and Burnham Square is catching the eye. The Japanese runners are a mystery but I do like Luxor Cafe. See, there’s seven already. Ha ha
Steve, I can’t thank you enough for making the Derby Rankings so enjoyable to read and we haven’t agreed too much on the horses this year. Good luck to all.
Rosie Napravnik is the commentator to listen to, but she’s only been there a few days, the handicappers don’t have nearly the insights she does.
Agree, Discopartner, I always listen to Rosie Napravnik’s opinion with interest. Have you been watching FanDuel’s “Breakfast at the Kentucky Derby” as well?
Davids and Disco – I agree. It would be terrible if these horses DIDN’T look great! They’re supposed to! They said this morning that Rosie would be back Thursday.
Katy, at least that’s one thing the horses look so good now, decades ago this simply wasn’t the case and CDI’S monitoring of the runners health is excellent.
By the way, I’m not a member of the CDI fan club. Lol.
I enjoyed your on track Derby works comments you used to publish in Bloodhorse.
You were spot on everytime.
Miss those days. Thanks
I’m still on East Avenue.
Today I looked back at all the dirt races that were run at Keeneland Blue Grass day. So many longshots coming off the pace to finish first or second. And all final fractions were slow. To me, his reawakening in the Blue Grass is so much better than it looks at first glance.
What I take away from Steve… “he has class, royal breeding. If Journalism and Sovereignty get beat, it likely won’t be from behind.”
In summary, he fits the profile I’m looking for in a potential upsetter the way this race sets up. I think Manny Franco and East Avenue put up a helluva fight in the stretch.
Final Gambit is growing on me.
Steve: You’ve really done an outstanding job on the Derby trail this year. Every week, I think you can’t write a better column, and then you do it! If anything, your writing and insights get better each week. Even when the only thing to write about are the pre-Derby works, you notice important details so many others miss. (And I’m glad to have confirmation that Burnham Square’s workout was just as impressive as I thought it was.) Looking forward to Thursday’s column. I hope you get a nice payout on this year’s races, no matter how modestly you bet. You certainly have earned it.
P.S. So glad Smarty finally is in the Hall of Fame! His Belmont defeat is still a painful memory for me. Wasn’t he collared by two different horses BEFORE Grindstone got him at the wire? Not fair, but that’s racing.
Thanks Ms B. Whoever we like this year were all gonna need a lot of luck.
Poor Birdstone, even his name is misremembered. Steve, wrote a beautiful piece about Birdstone.
Like father, like son. I resented both horses — Grindstone for being a son of Birdstone, and never winning another race after the Derby. I guess I hold a grudge when my favorite horses get beaten!
Wait, I did it again! Grinstone is the SIRE of Birdstone. I have to learn to keep my grudges straight.
Ms Blacktype, Grindstone was retired 5 days after winning the Kentucky Derby due to a bone chip in a knee.
Birdstone went on to win the Travers Stakes after winning the Belmont Stakes.
Davids, I was thinking of Grindstone as never winning another race. When I’m not overly excited (it IS Derby week) I can remember things like Birdstone also winning the Travers. And to think I had all the Derby winners memorized — in order —when I was 11. The other day I completely forgot who won the race last year. Mystic Dan — I think.
Make that Mystik Dan. Geez, I give up, at least for today.
In the early 1970s I discovered horse racing. A local store gave away little pamphlets with all the Triple Crown race information, including winners and runner-ups from each race’s inception. I had those win/place stats memorized at 13 as well.
Good for you, fuzzi! Can you remember any of them now? I have the most trouble with the ones I didn’t memorize as a child, which is about a third of the winners.
Rodriguez and Journalism on top, underneath coal battle, sovereignty, grande, citizen bull, and Baeza (if he will go into) extra horse for 4th place sandman and chunk of gold!! Good luck to everybody!!
I had given up on Coal Battle, thinking that the clock had struck midnight for him. However, after seeing his last two workouts, I might use him in my Derby trifecta. Not in the top spot though. He does look like he means business. Maybe we should listen to Lonnie Briley when he said that he missed a work with Coal Battle going into the Arkansas Derby.
My Derby trifecta is still a work in progress. I was planning on using Publisher, but plenty of people are getting on to him. At least it sounds that way. His stablemate Tiztastic might be the one that gets overlooked.
I’ll wait to see what Steve Haskin has to say on the subject this Thursday. The “subject” being betting on the Derby.
East Avenue sitting off the pace could be the ticket to success.
25-1 would be nice.
I actually think the best horse of this crop is Goal Oriented…late foal,MASSIVE boy, missed training for quite a while,probably injured. His first out maiden win recently was 😳 mind blowing…this boy wants to run ….looked like wanted to go around another 10 times,couldn’t be pulled up.It’s hilarious,makes his competition look like ponies because of his size. Love his pedigree!
Goal Oriented is entered in the 3rd race on Saturday at Churchill. Flavien Prat to ride.
Yes indeed Tommy, don’t know how I feel about that …I worry about rushing back from possible injury? too fast,and traveling….too much too soon. It’s asking A lot of a late born foal 🙏
I watched his recent work the colt could be any kind ..
Over the past 30 years…..double qualifiers of final fractions have won the KD 86% of the time. The list below is the top 8 qualifiers. I will take those odds any day.
Final Gambit 20/1 ML (2.20 DI)
Rodriguez 12/1 M/L (3.00 DI)
Sovereignty 5/1 M/L (4.33 DI)
Flying Mohawk 30/1 M/L (3.00 DI)
Grande 20/1 M/L (3.67 DI)
Journalism 3/1 M/L 3.57 DI)
Tiztastic 20/1 M/L (4.00 DI)
Luxor Cafe 15/1 M/L (5.00 DI)
I read somewhere that Citizen Bull and Burnham Square had horrible Dosage numbers.
Citizen Bull 9.00 DI
Burnham Square 7.80 DI
Citizen Bull has some of the same characteristics as another Into Mischief, Mandaloun. Strong speed figures except for an inexplicably horrible race in his final prep and a dosage out of this world (11.00!)
Those are some nice horses to play around with, Zany. Thanks for posting!
Ms Blacktype, you’re welcome!
Ms Blacktype, I like the way you put that, nice horses to play around with.
I’m rolling with the chalk but think one of either Rodriguez or East Ave will hold up for a share. Then it’s just a matter of finding a few more for the trifecta wheel. Grande, Sandman, and Sovereignty all look capable. Hopefully a 20-1 type can get in there to spice up the pay.
Well, I’m back to square 1 as Tappan St. was my top pick.
As of now, between Journalism, Sovereignty, Tiztastic and Rodriguez. But I reserve the right to change my mind 100 times before Saturday. I don’t usually make up my mind until I see the post parade, same as any other race.
Steve, it was not my intention to put a whammy on you.
I was trying to compliment you on all the highly successful Derby Dozens you have crafted all these years.
As of late I seem to be saying the wrong things or possibly what I am meaning to say is being misinterpreted. So best I think that I chill for awhile on commenting.
I am somewhat out of league here anyway. I have no handicapping skills and really no desire to develop them. I simply enjoy the sport and love the horses, all horses not just Thoroughbreds.
Wishing each and every one of you the very best with your betting selections and that all horses and jockeys have safe trips. That is always a winner.
You misunderstood his comment. Relax. All is well. The derby is but five days away.
I hope you won’t stop commenting, Lynda. I always enjoy your comments and learn from them. And you’re not the only one on here who simply enjoys the sport and the horses. I tried handicapping once for a year and not only did I not enjoy it, I found I actually didn’t do as well as when I did what I enjoy most, picking horses based on how they look to me in the paddock. There are as many ways to enjoy racing as there are designs for silks!
Steve, thanks for the intriguing info on the proposition bets! And particular thanks for your insights about the Derby contenders’ works. Each year, I get so much out of those. Reading them helps me to develop a better eye for evaluating a work and a horse’s overall demeanor.
Stop commenting? Why would you think that? I guess I’ll have to out smiley faces on kidding around comments. I never thought anyone would take that seriously. I was making fun of myself.
I would miss your comments if you stopped posting. I too have no handicapping skills but I have a lot of fun picking horses to cheer for. I’m sure you do, too, and I’m always happy to hear your thoughts.
I was just kidding with you. I would have put a smiley face but thought it was obvious it was said in jest.
You would actually stop commenting because of that? I can’t believe you thought I was serious.
Ignore any bad comments. I enjoy reading what you write. This is a place for people who love horses and enjoy talking about them not just betting.
Do don’t go . I will miss reading your stuff . Your a good egg Lynda
Chris
Thank You and i am just a novice who gets excited for the Derby every year. But next to Steve, i find your comments to be the most insightful and your enthusiasm and love for the horses comes across loud and clear.
I was addressing my comment to Lynda King.
Love you, Lynda King! Pretty dang sure all is well. Your posts are thoughtful and thought-provoking, and your love and understanding of horses ALWAYS shines through. Come on back up here on the porch and grab a rocking chair, shug! We can have a sip of tea every time someone says “Secretariat!”
Steve I can’t thank you enough for all you do for all of us who are fans of this fascinating game, and fans of you’re always entertaining and thought provoking writing, it wouldn’t be the same without you. I’m going to box exactas and trifectas with Sovereignty, East Avenue, Final Gambit, Coal Battle, and Journalism, good luck and good health to you and all the wonderful readers and bettors on Secretariat.com. I love just typing his name.
Thank you very much, Kevin. I really appreciate it
So many talking heads on YouTube and other forms of social media. Yet, no one can hold a candle to one Steve Haskin when it comes to dissecting the KD field.
Looking forward to Thursday’s handicapping analysis.
*Footnote* I second what Jerry Lillard posted about the Dosage handicapping angle. Most people stopped paying attention about a decade ago. Yet, the majority of past winners fall into the 3.5 DI and below.
Yay another Stoneage handicapper who undoubtably has cashed tickets before….
“Stoneage handicapper.” Priceless!
Reminded me of the Flintstones horse racing, or should it be Dino racing episode. Sabertooth cashed in for Fred and Barney.
……..“And don’t bet on the races.”
Thats very kind of you. Thank you!
At the very least, dosage is a good way to winnow down betting prospects, Zany. I like to put together a few Superfectas each Derby, and eliminating or including by Dosage can be a tiebreaker. That said, I’m not sure I want to ditch Burnham Square just because his Dosage Index is 7.80.
Notable equipment changes: Blinkers off for Rodriguez, before the Wood…..blinkers on for Publisher, before The Ark Derby—those two have my attention, with Journalism and Sovereignty at the top–this year the favorites look like the ones.. There probably will be a lot of movement, around the far turn—Rodriguez to the front with Journalism following—if the closers ate looming ever so close—they could sweep the trifecta—if stalkers are creating separation they will be tough to collar—a game of moves! Move early—you better have horse! Normandy Invasion is etched in my mind! I put up a big was wager….”I’m going to WIN”…..1/8 pole “I got 2nd!”….1/16 pole “well, THIRD FOR SURE!”… shadow of wire “FOURTH!”….
(WPS WAGER(
Thanks Steve, great stuff as usual.
Your Smarty Jones take on his Derby prep brings back great memories.
The ‘prop’ bets on Secretariat will be very interesting to keep track of on the live broadcast. I’ll bet the talking heads are already planning their comments.
Your takes on the recent workouts are much appreciated.
I would only add that watching Journalism take to the track and work on Sunday reminds me of how smooth that first mint julep goes down on Derby Day.
Looking forward to your wagering analysis on Thursday. I trust your takes. Thanks!
Hi Steve
Thank you for providing your thoughts on the final works of several top Derby prospects.
Last week you mentioned that your betting angles would be posted, as well as your take on the latest workouts. Will we see those betting angles later this week?
BTW, any thoughts on Luxor Cafe’s workout?
Thanks, Steve.
Yes Bill, Thursday. Ii he worked no one showed it. Or i missed it
Thanks Steve, I’ll be looking forward to your wagering angles on Thursday.
I just read that Luxor Cafe might breeze on Tuesday. I have a high regard for this American Pharoah colt, and I’ll be using him in several of my exotic wagers.
Welcome to Kentucky Derby week Steve. Thanks for keeping us supplied with great insight & information throughout the Derby Trail. I have a lot of Futures Wagers going from all the way back to Sept & wouldn’t trade some of them for Gold at the moment. That being said Handicapping 101 started for me along time ago & while the way they train & bring them to the Derby these days is not the ways of the past I still do my figures the same way it seems to keep getting me to the $$$. I have had conversations with you in the past about Dosage Index & being forgotten tool anything over a 4.0 is a toss & it still is invaluable to my process IMO. Last year I cashed for almost 8k & was not caught up in the Fierceness & Catching Freedom cult who went off favorite 3-1 & 2nd choice 8-1 running 17th & 4th both carried 5.00 & 5.67 Dosage. While most of America was holding their breath with the 3 horse photo finish to see who won I was more concerned about the return as I had all 3 in Wagers early & often along the trail. That being said this years event is no different except there are many more tosses this year entered than normal failing the Dosage perimeters to make the distance. Citizen Bull is a whopping 9, Burnham Square who mention in today’s piece is an 8 & also a Gelding so he’s Double jinx on the Gelding too other than Funny Cide & Mind That Bird since 1929 none has won the great race, both tosses for me & have no wagers at all on them. Neoeques is 7.0, Luxor Cafe 5.0, close calls on Publisher 4.3 & Tiztastic 4.0 all tosses for me if they win I’ll lose. I know your old school too but seem to be changing with the times guess I am still a rock not changing till they quit paying me.. Back in 1994 Holy Bull looked unbeatable going into the Derby & being out of The Great Above should relish the slop but his Dosage of 5.0 got him a 12th place finish as the huge favorite. He was nearly unbeatable after that race but not on that day. That Derby Jerry Baily jumped off Go For Gin for Irgun who then was injured soon after. Chris McCarron inherited the mount of Go For Gin with a morning line of 30-1 which I loaded up on Oaks Day only to watch if fall to 9-1 Chris never had a spot of mud on him in Winners Circle, the old fox Charlie Whittingham always said don’t go to the Ky Derby unless you have the horse to do it with & Strodes Creek came home 2nd it was a huge pay day & had many others because of Dosage handicapping tool. I did have Real Quiet who was over the number so sometimes stray a little but it’s gotta be close not a 7, 8, or 9. Take Charlies advise & stay home if you don’t have the horse & a lot of this field is a toss for me, Journalism & Sovereignty run their race look out but you never know when a star is born on Derby Day. Lastly hopefully Baeza get in the race his mother Puca could deservingly be the Best Story of All.
Nice post Jerry, I’m old school as well so I’m still a believer in the dosage as a piece of my handicapping, so thank you for the numbers! You probably just saved me a couple of bucks! LOL
Me as well!
Informative comment! I also have been betting futures for a long while (I Think my first cash was 1989 with Sunday Silence, think I had him at 8-1 or so…
In years past, I corresponded via email with Steve Roman regarding many prior Derbies. Besides being a real nice person, I learned a great deal from him over the years…
Hey Jerry
Nyquist, the 2016 Kentucky Derby winner, had a Dosage Index figure of 7.00.
Tossing Citizen Bull, Burnham Square, Journalism, Luxor Cafe and others, based on high Dosage Index numbers, could come back to bite you. Just my opinion.
Yes he did & I lost $$$ that year I stay true & he was a toss for me. He has been a great Stallion too.
I wish some of these trainers and owners who did come but not with the horse to do it would’ve made room for the likes of Baeza. How did Animal Kingdom dosage look along with Nehro?
Animal Kingdom had a 1.67 Dosage.
My goodness. What a load of hooey. I’m too tired right now to tell readers how devoid of logic and statistical analysis your comments are — not to mention your errors of fact and your smugness (“cult”!). It would take far too long, but maybe later. Like next week!
On a sloppy track Toss the Dosage Index!
Derby winner:
2009 Mine That Bird – Dosage 5.40
2016 Nyquist Dosage 7.00
2017 Always Dreaming – Dosage 5.00
What is Journalism, Sovereignty and Rodriguez dosage? Thank u in advance
Journalism 3.57
Sovereignty 4.33
Rodriguez 3.00
Great read Jerry! Thanks!
Steve, thanks for all you do! The derby trail wouldn’t be as much fun without your contributions. The Secretariat props are great. I wish I could add one that asks, Will a commentator start a sentence with, “He may not be Secretariat, but….”
I was awaiting your observations before I made any betting decisions. I’m grateful for your dedication to your readers. As for me, I’m done until derby day. My brain is fried. Five of my eight future wager horses have fallen by the wayside; all were at odds from 51-1 to 70-1. The good news is that the three remaining are the ML favorite JOURNALISM (19-1 in FW4), 2nd ML favorite SOVEREIGNTY (17-1 in FW4), and 4th ML favorite BURNHAM SQUARE (35-1 in FW5).
Not so coincidentally, I see those three as the best runners on Saturday. But SANDMAN or PUBLISHER has a decent shot at rounding out a trifecta. TIZTASTIC could hit the board. Of the six who will contend for the early lead, I see RODRIGUEZ doing the best – maybe a 5th-place finish.
If LUXOR CAFE looks good in his Tuesday breeze, and if he isn’t hammered at the windows far below his 15-1 ML, he may be a derby day wager. I might consider him at 9-1. He’s a mystery for sure, but Japan-raced horses have made great strides in the U.S. Steve’s comments about FINAL GAMBIT got me thinking again about him. My reservations were the obvious ones: Never raced on natural dirt. Except for the synthetic California years, there just aren’t many non-dirt horses in the derby. But Animal Kingdom did it, and FG’s pedigree for dirt is much better. Juddmonte sends well-meant horses to the derby: just six starters, including 2nd-place finishers Mandaloun, Empire Maker, and Aptitude.
If I didn’t have the future wagers, and the post-time odds were close to the ML, I would bet
Burnham Square on Saturday. I can’t wait for late Saturday evening, when I typically attempt to make sense of my losses. Safe trips for all horses and riders.
You’ve got a good shot with those juicy future wagers, Tony D. Journalism, Sovereignity and Burnham Square at double digit odds puts you in the catbird seat. Good luck to you!
Thanks, Ms B. Same to you. Saturday can’t get here fast enough.
Before I even read the Works portion of Steve Haskin’s post today I am compelled to comment about Smarty Jones and what a love affair my family had with that horse that year. At a time when the Kentucky Derby Barn Draft Game was free to the public I had placed Smarty Jones in my barn and had activated him for the derby preps leading up to the Run for the Roses. I was absolutely obsessed with the horse and knew he would run big. After the game when Smarty Jones won the Derby I ended up in the top 1% of players that year, but I am getting ahead of myself. We all watched Smarty win the Kentucky Derby, and of course we all were thrilled when he won the Preakness, setting up for what we thought would be a Belmont Stakes win and the Triple Crown. The late afternoon of the Belmont Stakes, our son who was just a little kid at the time was so pumped up, playing with his Smarty Jones puppet horse that he was tearing the place up. My husband and I had a sitter because we were headed out for the evening after the race, and so the babysitter was on her way as the Belmont was run. I will never forget until my dying day what our son screamed out in a burst of tears when Smarty lost that race! “I’m gonna kill Birdstone!” My husband and I did our best to console our young son before we left for our evening out, but as I recall we left him screaming! What a memory, and of course today our son barely remembers that day! We took him and his GF to the Derby in 2023, so he can say he made it there at least one time, but I would bet that he will never make it to the Belmont Stakes! Ha! Now I am going to go back and read the rest of what I know will be a fabulous Haskin analysis.