Kentucky Derby (Speed) Rankings – Week 13
The Derby Rankings are pretty much what they were last week with possibly a few minor changes still to come. But because we have thrown speed ratings, especially the Thoro-Graph numbers, at you all year we have decided that this week’s post will be a separate Rankings based solely on those numbers. ~ Steve Haskin
Derby Rankings: April 15, 2024 – Week 13
By Steve Haskin
Let me repeat, these are not my regular rankings, but my rankings based solely on speed figures and who historically have put themselves in position to win the Derby and who will have to go against history, which unfortunately is the majority of the field. This has not been a fast crop of 3-year-olds so far, and the fastest horse by far has not been consistently fast. So perhaps this year the winner will not have to be as fast as in past years.
Just to go repeat the overall picture, since Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000, only three horses, Monarchos (10-1), Rich Strike (80-1) and Giacomo (50-1), have won the Derby coming off a Thoro-Graph number slower than a “3 1/2.” This year, of the top 20 horses, 13 will be going into the Derby off a number slower.” The other seven are an eclectic group, consisting of favorites, longshots, and a Japanese horse – Fierceness (negative-3 ½), Forever Young (1) , Just Steel (1), Just a Touch (2 ½), Catalytic (3 ¼), and Mystik Dan (3 ½). Only three of those are coming off back-to-back fast numbers within the guideline – Forever Young (1 and 1), Just a Touch (2 ½ and 2 ½), and Mystik Dan (3 ½ and ¼).
So, going strictly by the Thoro-Graph numbers, here are my Rankings. But I must preface it by saying that the Top 5 look to have the numbers to win, and after that it will be a bit of a reach if you go by history. Of course we had that reach two years ago with Rich Strike, so anything is possible, but as we showed above that was a rarity, and the year Rich Strike won, the Derby got the co-slowest Thoro-Graph number in the last 20 years (1 ½). That should not be the case this year, even though the vast majority of the horses will have to make a significant jump just to get to that 1 ½.
1—Fierceness — Yes, his four races have been up and down, but the up is somewhere in the stratosphere compared to the others. His negative-3 ½ Thoro-Graph number in the Florida Derby normally might suggest a bounce coming up in the Derby, but even if he does regress he still could win because of the big gap back to the others. And he does have that huge 1 ½ number in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile to fall back on. So it is certainly possible that negative-3 ½ is how fast he is and he could easily run close to that number again with a good break and clean trip…unless there really is something with is psyche to prevent it. The Derby should finally answer that question, but for now he is so fast and so gifted he has given himself quite a cushion. Remember, he did run six furlongs in his career debut in :22, :44 3/5, and 1:09 2/5, which is flying for any horse at Saratoga, never mind a first-out 2-year-old. With that kind of sprint speed and all the bottom he now has under him it wouldn’t shock me if he pulled a Spend A Buck and just ran everyone off their feet. The key word we keep hearing with him is adversity. If he is in a good position early, you can avoid that word by just stepping on the gas and seeing if a Buick can catch a Lamborghini. But that isn’t Pletcher’s m.o. so we’ll see how Velazquez plays it in the opening half-mile. He is a master on the front end.
2—Sierra Leone – He is on an excellent pattern, and his last Thoro-Graph number puts him in position to win the Derby if Fierceness doesn’t freak again stretching out to a mile and a quarter, a distance Sierra Leone will relish. He started out with a 9 and then took a big step forward in the Remsen Stakes with a 4 ¾. In his 3-year-old debut in the slop he paired up that number with a 4 ½. But having only two starts this year he needed that final big forward move in the Blue Grass to set him up for a Derby victory and he got it, running a 1 ½ . By having paired up that 4 ¾ there is no reason at all to think he will regress off the Blue Grass and in fact he should take another step forward going 10 furlongs. We know he can maneuver inside and outside of horses; we know he has push-button acceleration and has shown he can run down any horse in sight; we know he can unleash that powerhouse move early and as far out in the middle of the track as he needs to, and we know regardless of how fast he is closing he actually has another gear he kicks into in the final sixteenth. What we don’t know is, with his size and that humongous stride, can he stop and go if he runs into traffic, as he has never been inside horses in the stretch. One final note, if you are concerned by his antics at the gate and feel that may be who he is, I suggest you go on Fasig-Tipton’s YouTube channel and watch him sell as a yearling and see if you can recall a horse being in the ring as long as he was and with so much activity who acted more professionally. I short he a magnificent horse and a joy to watch even with his awkward action.
3—Forever Young – What can you say about a horse who wins in Japan getting a 5 ¾ Thoro-Graph number, however that is computed, then travels to Saudi Arabia for the one-mile Saudi Derby and runs a 1 Thoro-Graph number, winning despite a wide trip, not changing leads down that long stretch, and still closing relentlessly to nail a pretty fast American runner. With such a hard race under him he then travels to Dubai for the UAE Derby, stretching out to 1 3/16 miles against a much stronger field, is forced to go wide again, and runs down a 4-year-old Argentine-bred colt who was opening up a five-length lead on the rest on the field. Not only did Forever Young win by two lengths and not bounce off the Saudi Derby, he ran another 1 Thoro-Graph number, giving him the fastest back-to-back numbers of any 3-year-old. That was backed up by his Ragozin pairing of 6 and 6, also the fastest back-to-back numbers of any 3-year-old. So now the question is, what should we expect in the Kentucky Derby, with him having to travel again? He did arrive safely, so the first step is out of the way. This colt seems to have a very high ceiling and he is undefeated in three countries. Let’s say the Japanese are due after several failed attempts by horses far slower than Forever Young. So if not now, when?
4—Just a Touch – I have mentioned several times how he did things as a young horse at David Scanlon’s training center that horses his size who pack so much muscle just don’t do. In his three career starts, he started off with a 2 ½ Thoro-Graph number in the slop, which is exceptional. Stretching out to one-mile in the Gotham Stakes, again in the slop, he ran another 2 ½, which is even more exceptional, giving him a fast and solid base to fall back on. He then stretched out again to a mile and a eighth going two turns for the first time. Chasing a very fast pace he managed to get the lead in the stretch and was caught by Sierra Leone’s late powerful surge, while finishing almost four lengths ahead of the third horse. Once again he got a 2 ½ Thoro-Graph number. By running that fast and that consistently to start his career, and at all distances and track conditions, who knows how big a jump we can expect in the Derby or how high his ceiling is. There has been a lot of talk about a speed bias on Blue Grass day, but I never saw it, and TimeformUS confirmed by their algorithms that there was no speed bias. On a scale of one to 100, the speed of that track was rated a 39. And as for the pace, Just a Touch chased sprightly fractions of 23, :46 2/5, and 1:10 4/5. He had originally been given a 115 TimeformUs speed rating compared to Sierra Leone’s 117, but was awarded an additional six-point pace figure, giving him a 121 speed rating, five points faster than Sierra Leone. This colt will be cramming a lot in a career spanning a little over three months, but if anyone can keep moving forward it is him.
5—Mystik Dan – To me, he would be the potential overlay if you guess correctly. The guess is whether his sensational Southwest Stakes rout is who he really is right now and if he can come close to duplicating that performance on a fast track. Here is what he has in his favor and why the Southwest might not be the fluke many think it is. First off, he got a 6 ¼ Thoro-Graph number in his second career start going five and a half furlongs in a quick 1:03 1/5 on a fast track at Churchill Downs. So we know he has sprint speed, handles a fast track, and likes Churchill Downs. I have explained on several occasions the legitimate reasons for his two defeats, one being rushing back in two weeks off that fast maiden victory, being off his feed before the race, and coming out of it with a lung infection. The other was missing several works after that and going into the Smarty Jones Stakes a bit short, and still being there fighting for the lead at the eighth pole and getting beat only 3 ¼ lengths by Catching Freedom. Whether you feel it was the slop or a ground-saving trip, he still demolished his opponents in the Southwest Stakes, winning by 8 ¼ lengths and getting a super 0-plus (¼) Thoro-Graph number coming off a 9 1/2. Would he regress off that in the Arkansas Derby? Yes he did, but with the trip he had, getting bothered by an out-of-control Liberal Arts and falling farther back than he wants to be and then rallying from eighth to finish third while having to alter course twice in the stretch, his 3 ½ was pretty good all things considered and puts him in position to move back to that zero number. Now for the Derby it’s all about the speed in his sire’s family vs. the stamina in his female family.
6—Honor Marie – Although he is like Resilience and Catching Freedom in that they all need a huge jump to win the Derby, his Thoro-Graph pattern is different than theirs and he may be more likely to accomplish it, despite needing the biggest jump of the three. And that is why he looks like an enticing overlay possibility. In his first three races you had to love the trajectory he was on, going from an 11 to a 7 to a 5 ½, with his final race as a 2-year-old being a come-from-behind victory in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs. If he continued that pattern at 3 he no doubt would be right up there with the top contenders. But with only two scheduled starts and coming off a three-month layoff he ran into a very sloppy track in the Risen Star Stakes and just never got a hold of it. After racing in 11th for most of the race, he did manage to come on in the stretch to finish a non-threatening fifth. His 10 ¾ Thoro-Graph number in that race set him so far back it was questionable if he could rebound enough in the 1 3/16-mile Louisiana Derby to even assure a spot in the Kentucky Derby. But on a fast track he came through with fast-closing second-place finish, jumping back up to his 5 ½ Thoro-Graph number. So although he has a bigger jump to make than Resilience and Catching Freedom, they have taken baby steps, while has shown the ability to make bigger jumps, such as his four-point jump in his second career start and his 5 ¼-point jump from the Risen Star to the Louisiana Derby. So even with needing another huge move forward of about five points he has at least shown he is capable of it and looks primed for a potential peak performance.
7—Catching Freedom – He and Resilience have very similar patterns. He began his career by running back-to-back 9 3/4s, and each race since has shown a slight improvement, moving up to a 7 ½, then a 6, and finally a 4 ½ in his last-to-first victory in the Louisiana Derby, but still leaving himself with a lot to make up on the top horses. He needed that one substantial move forward and never made it. Remember, as we mentioned, only two horses, both in shocking upsets, won the Derby coming off a Thoro-Graph number slower than a 3 ½ in this century. One thing going for him and most of the field is that there aren’t many horses this year who are faster, and of the seven who are, two will be big longshots anyway and one is a Japanese horse who we still know little about. So if horses like Fierceness, Sierra Leone, and Just a Touch don’t run up to expectations or have bad trips then it’s anyone’s race, and he certainly has the class, consistency, and closing punch to get the job done, and that is why he is one of the short-priced horses in all the futures. But in all likelihood he and Resilience are going to have to make the biggest move forward they have ever made. One big thing in is favor is that it took him a while to mature in his races, and he ran a much more professional race in the Louisiana Derby with the cool Flavien Prat up for the first time. So he just may be ready to make his first big jump.
8—Resilience – After No. 5 the rest of the field have similar challenges and it is difficult to separate them, and if you go by historical data it is going to take a far bigger move than they have ever made for them to be in line to win. Following a poor career debut, Resilience ran well in his next three races, earning a 7 ½ in each one. It was time to make a big forward move or have that number define who he is. Moving into stakes company in the loaded Risen Star Stakes he showed he could compete with the top-level horses, finishing a strong fourth, but improving his Thoro-Graph number only slightly to a 6 ½, leaving him with one race to push himself into the upper echelon and be in position to win the Derby. By scoring a definitive victory in the Wood Memorial he improved to a 4, which is good, but still not quite where you want him to be, as he would probably need around a four-point improvement to give him a shot at winning the Derby. Sure it can be done, but it is going to take a huge effort to be competitive with Fierceness, Sierra Leone and the others above him and he hasn’t yet shown he can make such a big jump. But at least his 2 ½-point improvement in the Wood was the biggest he’s made in his last five starts, and you can be pretty sure he is going to take another move forward in the Derby. And like with Catching Freedom and Honor Marie, it may not be good enough to win if the top horses if they run their race and duplicate or improve their numbers, but it will put them in position to be competitive and finish in the money. But Sol Rosen, the legendary editor of the Morning Telegraph/Daily Racing Form and one of the most astute handicappers in the game, once said, “If you think he can run third, he can win!”
9—Just Steel – He is going to be a big price and I honestly have no idea what to expect from him, as his career speed figures have been the proverbial roller coaster ride. Talk about ups and downs, how about a 9 ¾ to a 2 ½ to an 8, to a 2 ½ to a 7 to a 1? One race he is one of the slowest horses and another he is one of the fastest, and that “1” in the Arkansas Derby was the third-fastest number run by a 3-year-old and the second-fastest last-out number behind Fierceness. He not only has withstood the most grueling campaign of any 3-year-old, his last race was by far his best, as he matched strides with the victorious Muth in the final furlong, beaten two lengths, while opening a 4 ¼-length lead on third-place finisher Mystik Dan. You had to love the way he stalked Muth and Timberlake and how strongly he was striding out at the end. Even his seventh-place finish in the Rebel was a bit deceiving as he was five-to-six wide on both turns. In his prior race he was carried to his 2 ½ Thoro-Graph figure by chasing Mystik Dan home in his sensational 8 ¼-length romp, in which he earned a monster number of ¼. Just Steel is a horse to be admired and respected for his toughness, resilience, and ability to keep running fast numbers every other race. In his pedigree he has four Kentucky Derby winners, three sires of Kentucky Derby winners, two Triple Crown winners, and is inbred to an English Triple Crown winner. Yes he has been unpredictable, but good luck keeping him out of your exotics.
10—Society Man – Now we are talking big longshot, with him having gone off at an absurd 106-1 in a wide-open Wood Memorial field that lacked real star power. Sometimes you will find 3-year-olds who simply begin to blossom this time of year, and you never know if it is long-term or short-term, just as we don’t know with Society Man, who woke up in early March with a powerful maiden victory in the mud at Aqueduct. Although it was visually impressive, his Thoro-Graph number improved only from a 13 ½ to a 10. But in the Wood Memorial he laid closer to the pace and kept moving up steadily right behind eventual winner Resilience. He kept on strongly through the stretch to finish second. Although he was beaten two lengths he pretty much equaled Resilience’s 4 Thoro-Graph number with a 4 ¼, which was a huge leap from his 10. It’s anyone’s guess if this was an indication that he is improving at a rapid rate and has yet another forward move in him or if this was a one-shot deal and he is going to regress off it. Visually, I was impressed with how strongly he was running in the stretch and kept within two lengths of Resilience in the final furlong. And it is encouraging that he performed so well coming off Lasix. So, being by Good Magic, out of a Colonel John mare and having a pedigree loaded with stamina, is he a horse to be taken seriously? I can’t think of a reason why he shouldn’t be.
11—Catalytic – This horse is a bit of a enigma, partly because of the circumstances that resulted in him getting a career-high 3 ¼ Thoro-Graph number in the Florida Derby. Is he getting good fast or did Fierceness carry him to that number? Whatever the answer, the fact is he was coming off only two sprints of six and 6 ½ furlongs, winning his career debut by 5 ½ lengths at Gulfstream and then finishing a close second coming from last in a Tampa Bay Downs allowance race. In those races he got a 9 and then 10 ¼ Thoro-Graph number. Stretching out to 1 1/8 miles in the Florida Derby he shoots up to a 3 ¼, while finishing second, 13 ½ lengths behind Fierceness and 2 ½ lengths ahead of Grand Mo the First, who was beaten a neck and a head in the Tampa Bay Derby. He actually was picked to finish second by a few sharp handicappers, so those two sprint efforts did not go unnoticed. And trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. obviously had to think very highly of him to move him so far up. So now what? With only three career starts and two of them sprints, do you risk a huge bounce in the Derby or do you give him an extra two weeks and point for the Preakness? The latter would seem more logical, but either way this is a very interesting colt who appears to have a bright future
The Rest of the Field – It would seem futile to go over the rest of the horses individually, as they all need to make moves they have never made before and it is difficult separating them based on their Thoro-Graph numbers. For example, here are the numbers for the others and how they compare to the numbers of the horses mentioned above:
Stronghold – 8, 7, 7 ½, 7, 6 ¼, 5 ½ — Moving in the right direction, but oh so slowly. Numbers not quite there yet, but still capable of making his presence felt. Tough competitor and will not give up without a fight.
Dornoch – 10, 8 ½, 6, 6, 6 ½, 6 ¼ — Won a couple of big stakes, but still pretty much going nowhere. Still needs to get his act together and become more professional. The talent is there.
Track Phantom – 9, 9, 7, 5, 6, 7, 7 ½ — Started to improve his numbers with several big front-running victories, but began going the other way when the distances stretched out.
Domestic Product – 17, 7, 14 ¾, 7, 7 ½ — A talented horse with a bright future, but a victim of extremely slow paces, resulting in slow numbers. Did he need another prep to sharpen him up off an eight-week layoff? History and logic say yes, but still a serious horse for the exotics.
Endlessly — 18 ½, 9 ½, 7 ¾, 9 ½, 9 ½ — Visually impressive on synthetic, but very slow numbers. Bred for grass, but owner/breeders have been around for a long time and paid their dues and are allowed to have Derby fever if they wish.
Encino – 13, 13, 10, ? – Like Endlessly, his numbers on synthetic are slow, but expect a big jump forward off impressive performance in the Lexington Stakes. Still a huge leap to a mile and a quarter in only two weeks and the Preakness looks like a perfect spot. But still can’t be dismissed in the Derby; will run all day.
Grand Mo the First – 14 ½, 10 ¾, 10 ¾, 10 ¾, 6, 6 — I like this horse and he is starting to come around, but still a bit too slow for the Derby. Best is yet to come.
West Saratoga – 18, 11 ¼, 12 ½, 7, 10 ¾, 11 ¾, 8, 7 – Just starting to make a forward move, but still way too slow to be a major factor.
The bottom line is that there are still many question marks, especially with the fastest horse by far failing to put two big races together and only about a half-dozen horses that have the numbers to give you confidence they can win. After them it’s a crapshoot.
Racing historian, author, and award-winning retired journalist for the Daily Racing Form and The Blood-Horse, Steve Haskin was inducted into the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame’s Media Roll of Honor in 2016. Known for his racing knowledge and insightful prose, he has been an exclusive contributor to Secretariat.com since 2020.
I know I should know this and maybe this isn’t the place to ask, but what does it mean when a horse “bounces” or “bounce”? TIA
I’ll take a shot at this – a horse that bounces to me is one who runs a dull race right after running one of his or her better races in their career.
Just saw Muth’s work and it was good, 1:00 1/5 rider sitting chilly …. he’s not in the Derby but two that chased him are….
And I suspect that we will be seeing him as the spring/summer goes on, if he stays healthy (which I hope he does).
This morning, Junior Alvarado breezed Resilience 5 furlongs over the Churchill track, in 1:01.55, looking as happy as he can be, ears up, passing through the wire. He then sustained excellent energy on the gallop-out, without any prodding whatsoever getting six panels in 1:14.50 before easing up after a full mile in 1:41.86.
Based on the fact the Wood Memorial winners have had little impact in the Kentucky Derby, (in recent years), there will be many that dismiss Resilience’s chances of winning this year’s edition, but I for one believe he is one of the top contenders.
Resilience checks a lot of boxes, IMO.
Bill, he did look good this morning.
That’s good to hear, Lynda. Thanks for posting.
Stronghold is a colt that has done everything right, everything you want to see….he has improved…. improved steadily, and he looks real good, STOCKY BUILD, not large though, but he’s the kind of horse that will be able to take a bump or three—alas, I don’t intend on using him, the eastern horses are tougher than the ones he’s faced, but he did outduel Bob’s colt …you can never completely toss an improving horse..
Plus Stronghold has the story …..mother and grandmother passing in birth, there’s a great deal of blood, sweat and TEARS—concerning the homebred Stronghold..
Stonghold is a must include in the exotics, IMO.
Glad to hear about Honor Marie, he’s the only horse I played, in the Futures, I also like Mystik Dan…the horse I think is most likely the winner is Sierra Leone, while I’m having doubts about Fierceness….and I can’t put a finger on why—-he is working with slower colts, which cannot stress him and I am not sure he needs coddling, rather a good stiff work with a fast horse might toughen him up, of course if he breaks cleanly, and settles right off the early pace—thats why I’ll include him….but Sierra Leone is a beast…..
Fierceness with Johnny V is what makes Fierceness dangerous. I’m definitely including him in my superfectas.
Glad to see Curtis will ride Honor Marie in the Derby; I didn’t feel comfortable with a new jock, and Ben rode him beautifully in the LA Derby. He won’t be intimidated by the crowds, either – he’s ridden in races like the Epsom Derby…
As for the works…I can’t argue with the trainer. Beckman says the horse is fit and ready, so ..I love to hear it
“I got a dead-fit horse sitting on go. I felt like he’d respond a little better having a couple of more days out from the work,” Beckman said. “I’ll work him five-eighths and let that be the final cap on what’s been a good five or six weeks since the Louisiana Derby.”
Betsy I’m confident Honor Marie has a better race in the tank—his gallop out in his big Churchill victory “tells me so”….he hasn’t galloped out like a runaway train this year …. .yet!
Hey Mat
I’m not sure how important gallop outs are – but he sure was a beast that day!
HM couldn’t be coming up to the race shy better – all I can hope for is a good trip. Last time I cared so much, Honor A.P. had a disastrous and career ending trip 😭😭😭
Yes, Matthew, I’m waiting on the return of that ‘turn of foot’ as well. Goodbye Sierra Leone and Catching Freedom should that weapon is unleashed at Churchill Downs.
Honor Marie is looks to be feeling good and a happy kid out there.
It’s kind of funny seeing him with his neck and head tilt at the workouts. Hopefully it’s a sign of him happy and enjoying himself.
I could live without the neck/head tilt.
Betsy, City of Troy last raced on October 14, 2023 he is the hottest of favorites for the mile English 2,000 on May 4. You need both speed and stamina for that race, Aidan O’Brien will have City of Troy primed for the race.
Michael Dickinson and Bob Baffert have trained horses to win Breeders’ Cup races who haven’t raced in over a year. The fitness aspect of trainer for major races is less important than other aspects.
Honor Marie will be fine. We have to concentrate our ‘voodoo’ in getting a decent post and block out posts 1 -3 and 17 – 20 in the draw. Ha ha
For the Honor Marie fans:
@DRFGrening
…Whit Beckman confirms that Ben Curtis will retain the mount on Honor Marie for Derby 150.
That’s a relief. Thanks Winston.
Fierceness arrived at CD early this morning.
Observations from brief video: beautiful condition, deep shine to coat, has the cat-like walk, refined muscles.
My summary sheet for my audacity of hope for a $100 future wager on T O Password has some of the information already provided plus additional.
DOB – May 20.- Considered a late foal.
Debut – 9F -The last three May foals to win the KD are Authentic, Mine that Bird & Thunder Gulch. They made their debut over 5 1/2F, 6F & 6F. Only Authentic emerged a victor.
Career Starts 2 – How many American based May foals have two career starts over 9F?
Weight for races 126lbs – No American base 3YO has carried the KG weight even once.
Start #2- 78 days after winning Debut. – He won by a diminishing NS. He had every reason to tire late.
Post time odds in RTKD race 14/1 – An entrant at 14/1 isn’t expected to blow away any field. Particularly a last out maiden winner with 78-days between starts.
Master Fencer finished 2nd in the same RTKD series race. He went on to finish 7the by 4L in the 2019 KD under an atrocious ride albeit with 6 previous starts.
All kinds of entrants have won the KD. T O Password word falls into the category that hasn’t won since 1883. But it’s rare to see a KD entrant with 2 previous starts even with Taiba’s recent start.
Interestingly, Apollo for whom the nonsensical ‘Apollo Curse’ was named, won the 1882 KD, without making a start as a 2YO. His feat was repeated by Justify and Mage. It took a mere 136 years. Has the time come for Leonatus’ record of only 2 starts before his KD win, up for repeat?
A rare opportunity exists in the 150th running of the KD for this reoccurrence. Given the results of the last 5 years. There must be a very, very longshot chance for a repeat.
You never know what unknown unknowns are capable of.
Fractional approach to handicapping the KD made popular by Jennie Rees.
I just read about this a few days ago.
Anyone familiar with Jennie and the approach?
Basically she includes horses finishing their final prep race in :38 seconds or less over the final 3/8ths of a milethe and the final 1/8th mile in :13 seconds or less.
She established these thresholds by taking into consideration the final prep race for all Kentucky Derby winners going back to Real Quiet as to final prep race finish position, final time, final 3/8ths and final 1/8th time.
For this year’s contenders these were the results:
“Four of the strongest Kentucky Derby contenders: Catching Freedom , who finished in :36.58 and :12.05 to win the Louisiana Derby; Forever Young , whose projected times of :36.63 and :12.70 from his UAE Derby win in Dubai stack up well against the performances of his American counterparts; Fierceness , who closed in :36.91 and :12.59 to dominate the Florida Derby by 13 1/2 lengths; and Honor Marie , who came home in :37.01 and :12.17 to finish second in the Louisiana Derby.
Fierceness, in particular, deserves credit because he managed to finish fast after setting decent early fractions of :24.06, :47.50, and 1:11.31 in the Florida Derby, whereas Catching Freedom, Forever Young, and Honor Marie let other horses do the early work before finishing fast.
On the other end of the spectrum, a few notable Kentucky Derby contenders fall outside of our :38 cutoffs. First and foremost is Sierra Leone , who will likely start as the second betting choice behind Fierceness after winning the Blue Grass Stakes and Risen Star Stakes (G2). Sierra Leone unleashed an eye-catching homestretch rally to win the Blue Grass, but his closing fractions (:38.02 and :13.02) are ever-so-slightly slower than we prefer. It’s not a big knock—he missed both marks by only 0.02—but it is something to keep in mind.
So where does this leave us? The finishing fractions suggest Catching Freedom, Forever Young, Fierceness, and Honor Marie are particularly formidable Kentucky Derby contenders, and if you’re willing to overlook a few caveats, Domestic Product and Endlessly rank as appealing longshots with a proven ability to finish fast. Don’t forget, in 2022 the Derby starter with the third-fastest final three-eighths time on our chart was Jeff Ruby Steaks third-place finisher Rich Strike , an 80-1 longshot who sprung a massive upset in the run for the roses.”
In quotes taken from article on BH this past Wednesday.
Thoughts anyone?
Hi, Linda. There was some discussion on this not long ago. I wrote, “The last three Derby winners (last two if you don’t wish to include the pandemic year) all got the final eighth in 13 1/5 sec. In 2016, the Derby winner ran the final eighth of his prep in 12 4/5; in 2013 it was 13 sec; in 2011, it was 13 2/5. In both 2006 and 2008, the Derby winner ran the final furlong of the last prep in 13 sec.” I think Sierra Leone is fine in this regard. A Derby winner doesn’t need to have the fastest final fraction in his last prep. But if you combine a good final fraction with a solid Late Pace rating, you should have confidence that the horse will give a good account of himself.
When I listed some Derby trivia recently, included was “The only Derby winners since 2000 that earned a Brisnet Late Pace rating of less than 95 in the final prep were Mine That Bird (79) and Medina Spirit (86).” Probable Derby starters with a 95 or higher are Sierra Leone (97), Fierceness (113), Catching Freedom (101), Resilience (98), Just Steel (96), Honor Marie (96), Domestic Product (125! – but ridiculously slow early pace ratings), and Society Man (95).
I have decent Future wager on Domestic Product. In his maiden breaker over 9F he displayed good closing speed without any opponents close. It would be interesting to see what his LPR was for that win.
I never focus on LPR as that’s above my pay grade. I am more into stride mechanics.
Catching Freedom hits the ground very hard as he has somewhat of a turf action. Over 10F he will be utilizing a lot more energy than the best of his peers. I much prefer a horse that literally skips over the surface than one that pounds it.
Stronghold stride mechanics makes him more energy efficient than most. Likewise, Encino who is unlikely to run in the KD. There are others that have energy efficient stride mechanics, which does help when the ravishes of lactic acids sets in.
Late Pace for DP in maiden win: 91
Have the connections committed with Encino yet?
Not yet.
Winston, thank you for responding.
I do recall reading the discussion you reference. I sometimes get lost in a fog whenever speed figures are discussed, but I am learning.
Your comment, “have confidence that the horse gives a good account of himself” summarizes what I gleaned from this article on the fractional approach.
Thank you!
You’re welcome. And I apologize for typing “Linda” 😮
That’s OK.
Just think ” Lynda Carter, who played Wonder Woman”. LOL
Ha ha! Yes, that’s a fine idea.
I liked Lynda Carter in the movie, Bobby Jo and the Outlaw. Her acting talents were much more “revealing” in that movie. 🙂
LOL
I was talking to a long time clocker friend before The Bluegrass, day two of the Keeneland meeting, my friend was trackside and informed me that opening day was inside speed favoring, like Keeneland always used to be —he touted me off of Sierra Leone, and I watched him toy with those colts! Horse just looks like a Derby winner! Reminds me of Fusiachi Pegasus, or those 18th century paintings, of long framed small headed Thoroughbreds….the classic horse for the classic race!
Fierceness’ :24.06, :47.50 were the slowest 2F & 4F splits recorded in all the 9F preps on dirt.
This thread is about *final* fractions. Regardless, you’re not considering the JR Steaks Stakes (AW) and the Louisiana Derby (9.5f)? Are you aware that Fierceness was the only one in the final preps at 9 and 9.5 furlongs that led gate to wire? And are you really making a big deal of the fact that the Florida Derby half was 47.50 as opposed to the Ark Derby at 47.46 and the Wood at 47.49?
And Todd continues to pair his works with much slower horses, that can’t challenge him early….BUT–he is going to have to run faster early, if they want an up front trip—-just trying to figure out a way to beat him…..
T O Password will be coming into the Kentucky Derby after only 2 races. He won them both. Against 16 & 11 horse fields. They knew that this guy wanted distance. Both of those runs were at a mile and an eighth. I watched a couple of videos of his last race. Both in Japanese. It’s hard to say how fast they were going, but T O Password hung on by a head over a horse that was making a serious move at him. Based on times, his 2 races are among the slowest in the probable Derby field. But that might not be the best way to look at it. Well fancied Forever Young’s 2 races at a mile and an eighth also resulted in slow times. Maybe those Japanese tracks are just slower than U.S. tracks.
Partly the result of all those races being measured in metres.
Winston, the dirt tracks in Japan are deeper than most American tracks and are sand. Possibly explanation for slower times maybe?
That’s possible. Maybe probable.
Lynda King, Calder (before it was shuttered) was a deeper track and was good for training horses for a deeper track like Churchill Downs. Maybe that is what the Japanese are trying to achieve with a deeper track; to achieve a win in the Kentucky Derby.
Thanks for your excellent information about the weather.
Thanks Terri.
I have been trying to get up to speed on the Japanese dirt tracks.
Their efforts have been focused on safety and keeping the tracks well maintained.
They also conducted a 20 year study on their dirt tracks and identified several factors they could improve upon to make the dirt tracks safer, especially on the turns. Several tracks were reconfigured to make adjustments in the banking of the curves and the sharpness of the turns. This has resulted in the tracks being one of the safest in the world and reduced the injuries (fractures).
Their tracks are also wider and they use different equipment than is used here to maintain the surface.
Good research!
Cool information. They look almost like beach sand, watching FY’s race replays.
I will be interested to watch T O Password’s warm up routine. I love what they do with Forever Young, because all the slow work is how to build tendon and ligament strength. Anyone who has ever rehabbed a horse with a bowed tendon has worked through the FY warm up in tiny increments: it seems maddeningly slow to progress, over many weeks, as the tissue heals and can accept more load. In FY’s case, they’re using the warm up to build the strength of these tissues from the start and ensure that they are properly stretched out. Then, he gallops around (briskly!) for a pretty good distance to build his stamina. It makes sense for any hard working, long working horse, but even more so if the tracks are deeper in Japan. They’d warm them up very slowly to avoid tendon and ligament injury and strengthen those structures.
Thanks Lynda for great information and insight on the tracks in Japan.
Unless I am mistaken, the Japanese have designed the configuration of their training tracks to specifically train their
horses for races in the U.S. That would be quite logical and could possibly offer their horses an experience akin to racing in the U.S. A deeper surface will be more like Churchill Downs surface.
Also, it is also true if a sire or a dam favors a particular track many times their offspring will favor that track. I have seen that occur with Quality Road and his son City of Light.
Kimura this AM said he’ll be riding him….
The mystery horse. If this was poker, and I got the T O Password card, I would discard and try for another. The word that frequently comes to my mind with this class is “flaky,” and there’s nothing to hang a hat on (or near) with this horse. But as a devil’s advocate… there was this horse called Rich Strike once.
The two thoro graph ratings for the two races run by Forever Young were 11 and 5. Both were when he was a two year old and both were stakes races. Its hard to compare times at two different tracks (ie Santa Anita and Turfway). But thoro graph gives a closer comparison of races IMO. His 5 at 1 1/8 seems to me like a very solid number especially since he came back after shipping and ran a 1 and then another 1 which are spectacular ratings.
Bill S could Forever Young be a throwback to his great grandsire: Sunday Silence? SS was one tough horse. I would love a Sunday Silence descendent to win the Derby.
Same here, Terri. Sunday Silence is one of my all time favorite horses. His classic battles with Easy Goer were spine tingling. His spirit and heart was passed down to many of his progeny with Forever Young proving to be one of them. You go, Forever Young. Do your great granddaddy proud.
Very sporadic weather forecast for Louisville.
Blackberry winter conditions starting today through 24th. Frost warning tonight for Louisville.
For those who do not know, Blackberry winter is a return to winter weather that coincides with the blooming of blackberry bushes.
Thunderstorms at 50% chance each day starting 26th through 30th. Trend expected to continue through May 04.
Probably explains schedule changes for breezes etc.
Thanks for the ‘Blackberry Winter’ information, Lynda. In Melbourne, we’ve had a lot of Blackberry winters the past couple of years.
The forecast for the Kentucky Derby doesn’t sound too promising.
In May 2020, we picked the biggest blackberry crop we ever had – wearing our heavy winter coats during the Polar Vortex that dipped even into the Deep South.
We can never count out dear old Stepmother Nature when it comes to the Oaks or Derby!
What state do uiu live in Katy?
Midlands of SC – Zone 8b growing zone 😉
I am from Virginia but now live in Northeast Georgia just stones throw across the Savannah from South Carolina.
Hello Davids,
The weather here in the South which includes western Kentucky is very changeable in the spring and typically May is the wettest month of the year in Louisville.
Moisture comes up from the Gulf of Mexico which also results in Louisville being very humid.
There is also a saying around here that if you do not like the weather on the morning just stick around, it will change by lunch (dinner).
This forecast will most likely change as we get closer to Derby Day. Pop-up thunderstorms are quite common in May as well.
Yes, Lynda, I’ve been at Keeneland on many occasions during spring/fall when that freezing wind blows through and chills everyone and everything in sight.
In Melbourne, one of their favorite sayings is that you get “four seasons in the one day” which is true enough. Ha ha
Let’s hope for a pleasant 75 on May 4 with blue skies and sunshine. Don’t forget the English 2,000 Guineas on May 4 as well, with the return of City of Troy. 1,000 Guineas will be run the next day also at Newmarket.
Looking forward to return of City of Troy.
I learned something–I had never heard of Blackberry Winter. In Vermont we have the somewhat earlier Sugar Snow, a snowstorm that coincides with the maple sugaring season, usually in mid to late March. Right now we’re having real spring–no leaves yet but lots of green grass and daffodils. It’s beginning to feel like Derby time.
Jiffy when I was still living in my home state, Virginia, we went to the Highlands Maple Sugar Festival several times which is held in early to middle March.
Each time it snowed!
Now I know the name for it, “Sugar Snow” and I learned something from you!
Monterey is a very unique little town located in Highlands County. Very low population, mostly farms…cattle, sheep and goats because of the rugged terrain and it is somewhat isolated and insulated from the outside world.
Glad to provide information. Monterey sounds like a wonderful area. When I was a child, there were dairy farms everywhere in our community but no more. It’s a real loss.
Jiffy, I was potting up daffodils, Freesias, and ranunculus on Sunday at 42 f and today it was 75 f and so is tomorrow. I have cyclamen flowering all year round now.
They can’t predict the weather for tonight let alone May 4th lol.
Deterministic officially out of Kentucky Derby consideration. “Keeping all NY options open,” trainer Christophe Clement said. …. Grand Mo the First now officially in.
Who knew?? LOL
\/
Obviously, there’s more to Deterministic’s current condition that has not been revealed.
Christophe Clement and the ownership group has the right to keep it to themselves, but once again, the general public is kept out of the loop. That’s horse racing.
Bill, If it is pouring rain on Derby day I will thinking of you !!!
Based on projected weather forecasts, rain is a possibility on Derby Day.
I’m very disappointed that Deterministic’s connections decided to skip the Derby and point him elsewhere for his next start. I respect that decision, but I can’t help but think, coulda, woulda, shoulda.
Good luck with your Derby pick, Downthestretch.
You can’t possibly be looking at any kind of weather reports this far out, right? Last year they were calling for rain 2 days before and then wah lau nice sunny day.
After being reminded that Street Sense and Nyquist are the only 2 Breeders Cup Juvenile winners to come back and win the Derby the following May, I was curious to find out how many BC Juvenile Filly winners had won the Kentucky Oaks. Again, only two. And it’s been a while. Open Mind in 1988 and Silverbulletday in 1998 for Lukas and BB. It’s been 25 years. Over due to happen? Just F Y I will give it a try on May 3rd for
Bill Mott.
She looks like a handful in the mornings! Definitely on her toes, and she looks good physically. Bill Mott has been handling her from his pony. Resilience looks quieter and more compliant, and the assistant goes with him.
Just FYI’s work this morning was fantastic, and she looked great over the track. She went a mile in just over 1:40… a la the Just Steel move a few days ago. Resilience goes around 9:00, they said, so will be interesting to see what Mr. Mott has him do.
Grand Mo the First is in. Deterministic, not surprisingly, is out. Grand Mo the Second still waiting.
Sorry Winston , Didn’t see this when I posted
It’s cool.
LOL Grand Mo ll
Toss
Some Sunday tidbits.
Sierra Leone has arrived at CD. Very impressive looking. Beautifully conditioned.
Fierceness to arrive at CD around 4:00 this afternoon.
Forever Young will breeze Wednesday, not Tuesday.
No final decision yet on Endlessly running in Derby per trainer.
Correction: 4:00 AM Monday morning for Fiereceness arrival at CD.
Well I’m officially not concerned anymore about Honor Marie having just 1 more work
He’s ready to run 1 1/4 right now, lol
https://x.com/legionbldstk/status/1782080245031444751?s=46
Betsy, we have to hope for a goodish post and clear sailing then the rest will fall into place. Racing gods can be very fickle.
Hey David
I’m worried he won’t have the foundation – 1 work? I can’t worry about the other stuff now ..
Betsy, don’t worry about foundation he has that, the progression from 6 furlongs to 1 3/16 m over a 5 month period in 5 races is solid. Honor Marie won’t be wanting in the Kentucky Derby.
But he’s only 2 races in 5 months, now just 1 work?
It’s just extremely unconventional …
He had 3 workouts between the Risen Star and the La Derby. He’s had 2 workouts since the La Derby.
He’s going to have only one more work before the Derby, on Thursday the 25th.
Like some others here, I don’t rely much on speed figures even though I’m always intrigued to find out what they are. In an effort to better understand the figs and how they relate to one another, I’ve been deep diving the preps.
The first one I looked at is pretty interesting so I thought I’d share.
The prior 10 Arkansas Derby’s contested over a fast track (not counting 2020 which was held in May) had these averages.
Avg Finishing Time = 1:49.88
Avg Beyer Speed Fig = 96
Avg Brisnet Speed Fig = 100
Avg Equibase Speed Fig = 104
Avg Thoro-Graph Fig = 1.89
Now, Just Steel recorded a time of 1:49.89, which puts him right at par for the average Arkansas Derby winner, thus it would be expected that he would earn those same Speed Figs from above. So lets take a look.
Beyer awarded Just Steel a 94 instead of the expected 96. This would suggest that the Beyer Boys saw the Oaklawn surface 2 tenths of a second fast on Arky Derby Day.
Brisnet gave Just Steel a 97 rather than the expected 100. Bris appear to agree with Beyer that the surface was just a tad fast that day.
Equibase gave Just Steel a 112 as opposed to the expected 104. It appears that Equibase disagrees with Beyer and Bris in that they see the track playing 8 tenths of a second slow. This puts Equibase in disagreement with Beyer and Bris by a full second which is pretty significant.
Finally, Thoro-Graph awarded Just Steel with a 1 instead of the expected 1.89. This suggests that the track was playing about 2 tenths slow.
If we convert Beyer, Bris and Equibase into a Thoro-Graph style number for easy comparison it would look like this.
Beyer 94 = TG 2.5
Bris 97 = TG 3.25
Equi 112 = TG -1 (neg)
It’s interesting a Derby Day price of say 18-1 can look very different depending on which set of speed figs on uses.
Thanks Jim, for the above contrasting opinions on speed figures. I think, like most handicappers, many find their didactic ‘truths’ interesting but quite often don’t provide the full analysis.
DETERMINISTIC finally had a work this morning Belmont Dirt training 5F 1:02.63 Breezing 11/19
Great news Mark, thanks for posting.
I remain hopeful that Deterministic will run in the Derby.
How much weight should we factor into the notion that Mike Repole and Todd Pletcher are “owed one” after last year’s fiasco with Forte? Forte was scratched with a foot bruise despite the strenuous objections of Mike Repole and to a lesser degree Todd Pletcher. Is Karma on their side this year with Fierceness? In my experience, life doesn’t work that way very often. And what are the odds that they would come up with the Derby favorite 2 years in a row? Who does Todd Pletcher think he is? BB?
Fierceness has it all going his way. A standout on numbers. Rave reviews of his workouts by every clocker that I’ve seen. A jockey with three times the Derby wins of the other Derby winning jocks. And Repole & Pletcher are owed one. Karma has to be on their side. Fierceness looks good. Real good. All signs are pointing him out. Right? Maybe he looks a little too good. Two weeks to figure it out.
I was a big fan of Forte and was very disappointed when things didn’t work out for him at the Derby. When I watched Fierceness win his first race, I thought, “Is this a worthy successor to Forte?” Same owner, same trainer, same jockey (at that time), even the same initial, and the 11-length win didn’t hurt, either. I know better than to think Derby thoughts in August, but I thought them that day and I’ve thought them ever since. Even when he disappointed me, I didn’t give up on him and I won’t now. I know he wants things his own way and there will be 19 riders out there trying to make sure he doesn’t get his own way. But I hope you’re right that karma or luck or whatever is on his side. I know he has the ability, and I hope he chooses to show us how good he can be.
Steve,
Thanks for this! Good information and insight like always! I am debating about if I like Just a Touch or Just Steel in my top 5.
When I see Sierra Leone gallop, there is a presence about him that I don’t see from the others. Does Sierra Leone have the biggest stride of them all?
I really hope Forever Young runs big, despite not liking the kickback in his face or running near other horses. But he is only going to be able to go so wide in the Derby and hoping he gets a good post position, so he will have a fair chance. Actually I hope all the top contenders get good posts.
Do you think T O Password will be the pace setter or Fierceness, Dornoch, Track Phantom?
I didn’t like Dornoch’s recent work at all. I used to hope he would win so his Dam would go down in history, but I am not getting Derby winner vibes from Dornoch at all!
I like the stories of Stronghold (a homebred and what his breeder’s had to go through to get him, lost his Dam when she had him☹️) and
West Saratoga( who wouldn’t love to see a horse that cost 11,000 with a trainer who has cancer and an owner who had never owned a stakes winner before this one, win the biggest race). Neither seem fast enough to make an impact at all though.
I do like Honor Marie to hit the board…but will it be him or Catching Freedom?
Mystik Dan is such a mystery. I do think he was bothered badly by Liberal Arts in that race.
Sierra Leone worked with his stablemate White Palomino who is neither white nor a palomino. Sierra Leone looked very good. Especially since he just raced 2 weeks ago.
Just a Touch came out of the same race as Sierra Leone but didn’t look as good to me. He did get tired in the Bluegrass after running hard the whole way. I’ll be looking for a better workout next week before I can support him on Derby Day. I’ll want to see him really reaching out and accelerating. A 59.4 or 1:00.2 5-furlongs would be just what the Doctor ordered. He’s the one that I really want because I think his odds will be very good.
So now both favorites have looked good in their penultimate workouts. Probably just easy maintenance drills for both next week.
Steve, shy idea if they’ve changed the work schedule for Honor Marie? He usually works on Sundays, but today he just galloped. I know Beckman said he was probably going to have to alter his work schedule due to upcoming weather, but there was no weather today. That makes me a bit leery
Thanks
Per HM’s connections, he’s only going to have 1 more work….on Thursday
That seems rather odd to me…
Thoughts, Steve?
Have you looked at any of APharoah12’s footage on YouTube? I thought at the trot, HM looked footsore up front, although maybe he just has the over-at-the-knee trudgey trot. Thoroughbreds don’t always have pretty trots, and he looked to be handling things fine when galloping. I decided that what I was seeing could be attributed to conformation/way of going. Then, the flaky schedule for HM made me question again.
I haven’t, but I wouldn’t know anything even if something was wrong, and I’ve heard nothing but positives
I’m back to worrying again – I don’t understand going into the biggest race of his life with one work in two weeks
From looking at the post below on the workouts 2 of them caught my eye. The one by Bill Dawson and Stronghold workout. Very fast 4 furlongs. One, nice to know this horse has this kind of speed (must be the Ghostzapper in him) and two, D’ Amato is keeping him sharp. But in the long run what does this work mean for Stronghold? Is D’Amato intentions wanting to get this horse up close to the pace early in the race? It might help for that but I think it would be a mistake for him to do that. If he is trying to run with with the likes of Fierceness, Track Phantom and Dornach in the race his horse will be done by the top of the stretch. I think him racing well back of the pace will give him his best shot of winning and this workout would be perfect for that kind of run.
The 2nd workout post was from Winston and Just Steel’s one mile workout. I was hoping Lukas would give him this kind of workout and deja vu he did it again. Love it and if anyone out there had their doubts about this horse I would put that too the side as this is a serious horse. I would like Lukas next work to be a 4 furlong on the Tuesday before the race in 47 and change or a 3 furlong on Wednesday before the race in 35 to 36 and change. Lukas instructions to the jockey on the day of the race no closer than 6 lengths and no farther than 10 lengths going into the first turn …. all out on the far turn coming to the finish line, Steve’s post on Fierceness is a typical Todd Pletcher work out … workman like but nothing spectacular but he did it nice. Would like to see next weekend Sierra Leone, Catching Freedom and Honor Marie get a workout like Stronghold’s work today.
Watching these works gives me the feeling that this will be an exciting 150th running of the Kentucky Derby.
I’m on info overload. I’d line to fall asleep and wake up on Derby day.
I’d LIKE…
LOL. Know what you mean about info overload.
So many opinions out there.
Congratulations Skippylongstocking!!!
Love that name.
Me too. And Fluffy Socks is another one I like.
Nothing is ever going to be better than Scorched Panties now, but I saw that Deterministic’s workmate was “The Shoe Lady,” and I liked that one. Lots of fun foal name opportunities for her kids!
I will never forget a Calder horse in the ’80s named Scorched Panties. I doubt that name would pass Jockey Club scrutiny these days.
You are joking, right?
No joke!
That was a nice purse to add to his bankroll, especially when you look at the initial investment. I hope he gets his G1 win this year!
23 starts, 8-2-4, earnings $2.391 million in earnings.
$37,000 purchase.
Agree Katy!!
As far as I can tell, Street Sense(2006-2007) and Nyquist(2015-2016) are the only two Breeders Cup Juvenile winners to win the Kentucky Derby the next Spring. A span of nine years between those two horses. Not enough data to etch it in stone just yet, but one could say that it happens every nine years. Nine years after Nyquist, BC Juvenile winner Fierceness will go into the gate as the likely favorite in just 2 weeks. The Todd Pletcher trainee has that going for him.
These are the kind of weird things that I notice. Some might call it a flaw in my handicapping.
On April 15th, Christophe Clement stated Deterministic is “unlikely” for the Derby, but went on to say, “he’s doing well, and came out of the race (Wood Memorial) surprisingly well.” “There’s nothing wrong at this moment.” You would think Clement would schedule a breeze, just to see how he looks in an official work. With the Derby just two weeks away, it appears it appears Clement and the owners have made their decision not run Deterministic in the Derby.
Yeah Bill I am as puzzled as you as to why no works. Hopefully in the next few days. I still think they are looking at the weather reports but right now they are not looking too promising for him.
Right now the extended 10 day forecast from the Weather Channel, shows the following:
Friday May 3rd, 79 degrees, AM showers 32%
Saturday May 4th, 77 degrees, AM showers 54%
Looks like Determinist’s trainer and owners will be playing the waiting game at least up to, the Post Position draw on April 27th.
That 54% is a little better than I saw the day before. If it get near 75% I think he goes.
I completely agree with you on the prospect of running Deterministic if that weather forecast is correct. Today, he worked 5 furlongs in 1:02.63, so it appears the connections will have him ready if in fact they decide to take a shot in the Derby.
Forever Young shouldn’t be too affected by the likely big field in the Derby. He has never run in a race with fewer than 11 horses. He faced a 14-horse field in his debut. Which he won easily.
Fierceness, Hades, and Stronghold have never run in a race with as many as 10 horses.
Fierceness has been heavily bet in 4 of his 5 races. His two losses were at odds or 1-2 and 1-5. He got away at 16-1 in his Breeders Cup Juvenile win. What were we thinking??? My guess is that we thought that Irad Ortiz abandoned ship after his dismal second start. I’m sure that Johnny V was more than pleased to have the mount in the BC.
Walking away from Fierceness, to ride Noted—Am thinking it should be noted his agent…in true Ward Cleaver style “pulled a boner”, on that one—also am thinking Irad is not without a chance this year—Domestic Product could end up the “wise guy” horse, of 2024….
Johnny V is a better fit anyway. I see Just A Touch as the wiseguy horse
Catching Freedom reminds me of Angel of Empire from last year’s Derby trail. And not just because he is owned by the Albaugh Family and trained by Brad C. The styles of the 2 horses seems similar. Though based in Iowa, I think that a Derby win for the Albaughs would be very popular around Kentucky.
After a first look at the FREE PPs over at Equibase, I see that the most experienced horses are Just Steel(11 starts), West Saratoga(10), and Track Phantom(7). Track Phantom doesn’t seem as dominate as the distances have gotten longer.
Tami Bobo’s Catalytic has only raced in Florida and was just beaten pretty good by Fierceness. While slightly troubled in that last race, Catalytic will need to make up
13 1/2 on Fierceness. No disrespect, but I don’t see it.
Endlessly has never run on dirt. 3 for 4 on turf and 2 for 2 on synthetic. His breeding screams “turf” to me, but Mr. Counter Point makes a pretty good case for his chances on dirt.
I will place a wager on Endlessly, for sure. He is the unknown on dirt, but we can see a lot of ability!
Steve, have you ever seen a more physically imposing Derby horse than Sierra Leone?
Saw him in the Blue Grass and again just now in his Keeneland work. Can’t recall another Derby horse built quite like this.
He is a. Beast but hes most imposing in a race with that gigantic stride
What I find amazing is how agile and light on his feet he is for such a battleship of a horse. Just watch his career debut.
Sierra Leone had a strong work this morning (good video on BH) and there is a great interview with Chad Brown on BH regarding it and his other horse Domestic Product.
Just saw the workout earlier. SL got a lot of horse underneath him. That was a strong workout and he made it look easy. Wow I like what I saw!!
The gallop-out portion of Sierra Leone’s work was as impressive as the part with his (idiotically named) workmate. Such low, long, powerful strides!
I am ready to see what he and Fierceness look like on the Churchill Downs track.
Today, Stronghold worked 4 furlongs, in a bullet 46.60 (1/68) over the Santa Anita track.
In six career starts, he’s won three and finished 2nd in the other three, the latest being the Santa Anita Derby. His Equibase Speed numbers are ascending (74,82,88,89,92,99) and his Thoro-Graph numbers are “moving in the right direction”, (per Steve Haskin).
Bottom line, I believe it’s time to take this Eric and Sharon Waller homebred colt as a serious player in the Derby.
In the SA Derby, he battled one of BB’s top colts, (Imagination) during an impressive stretch duel to win it by a neck, in a good time of 1:49.98.
I seriously doubt that Stronghold will win the Derby, but I believe he has an excellent chance to hit the board and round out the superfecta.
I’ll include him in some of my superfecta wagers.
Damn that’s a fast 4f workout.
Steve questions whether he can get the distance but man, when a Ghostzapper is peaking watch out! I like him a lot. January foal so huge room for improvement.
D’Amato stated, “Stronghold is scheduled to be flown to Kentucky on Tuesday and will have a workout there next weekend.”
That’s what racing 2000 feet above sea level can do. Heworked 58 plus for 5F after returning from Sunland Park.
The work that you’re referring to (58 +) was completed a month after Stronghold returned to Santa Anita. So, I’m puzzled by what you stated, “That’s what racing 2000 feet above sea level can do”.
Please explain.
Thanks Counter Point.
A little off topic but just a heads up. Tix for the Breeders Cup officially go on sale Monday. They are having a pre-sale today. Visit their site and sign up to have access to today’s pre-sale. Tickets are going fast. Good luck and see you there!!!!!!!
One last comment about the Derby riders. Johnny Velazquez is 51 years old and still riding brilliantly at times, not so great at other times. As Steve Haskin points out, Johnny Velazquez is masterful when riding a horse on the lead. How many times have we seen him leading into the stretch and when the other horses come to him, Velazquez and his mount take off again? Plenty of times.
Anyway, I had remembered that Bill Shoemaker was the oldest jockey to win the Derby back in 1986 when he guided Ferdinand from last to first, giving Charlie Whittingham a Derby winner. But I had forgotten that Shoemaker was 54 at the time. Johnny V still has some blue skies ahead. I would argue that Velazquez is riding better at 51 than Shoemaker was at the same age. “Shoe” seemed to come alive in Stakes races in those days.
BTW, Ferdinand in 1986 was the last horse to win the Derby from the #1 post position. That was 38 years ago. I think that a few horses have hit the board from there since 1986. Looking at Lee comes to mind. Supposedly, the new 20-horse starting gate was going to fix that. Not yet. I’ll believe it when I see it. Still smarting from Looking at Lucky. Like I’ve said before, I think that it will be a closer that finally breaks through from the rail. Rich Strike could have done it. With his style of running, the rail wouldn’t have mattered.
Also remember that Mike Smith won the Triple Crown at 52
Yes, he did. Thanks, Mr. Haskin. BTW, I enjoyed your comments on the workouts.
Observations from this morning’s works. I didnt care for Endlessly’s work. Struggling too hard to keep up with his workmate and then finally gave it up on the gallop-out. My favorite unsung work was from Society Man, who looked great working with Dornoch. Mystik Dan went faster than he looked working in company, and Catching Freedom look good in company, Backing up a few days I loved the work by Domestic Product, especially the gallop-out. And of course Fierceness looked sensational with another monster gallop-out Resilience and Forever Young had stong gallops this a.m. The latter’s could have even been timed.
Thanks for the observations, Steve! Are you there in person this year, or going to the race itself, since it’s a big anniversary? (Apologies if those are questions that are too personal.)
Not too personal at all. No I’m not there and to be honest have no desire to go after covering 25 staight Derbys. And it s a zoo, only now it s a much more expensive zoo. When you have had 25 years of free hotels, meals, air fares, and media credentials why would I want to pay thousnds of dollars now to fight the crowds, park 5 miles away, and not have seats? Lol. But for everyone else it is something everyone should expeience at least once. I have a lot of special memories for sure. When I first started there was no social media, YouTube, or TVG – no one but me to observe and describe the works each day for DRF and then Bloodhorse. If I missed a work that was it, it was never to be seen again until TVG started “The Works” show at 11 a..m in 2000, but back then not a lot of people got TVG. (I bet that was more than you bargained for, LOL)
I completely understand all of that! It looks far too “peopley” to me, when what I like and want to see is horses. I know that all of us on these boards appreciate your passion for racing, and that you are still willing to share your insights with us – with writing that is readable, enjoyable, and thought provoking!
I appreciate your insights, Steve, especially about Endlessly. As we’ve both noted, not that long ago Mike McCarthy was saying he felt Endlessly wasn’t suited to the dirt. I remember at one point he contrasted him with his other El Camino Real Derby winner, eventual Preakness winner Rombauer, in terms of how they each got over the different surfaces.
Thanks for the workout report! Did you catch Just Steel’s work this morning? Remember that about two weeks before the Ark Derby, Lukas had JS go one mile…in 1:40 flat. Two weeks to the Ky Derby, he gives the colt another one mile work…in 1:40 flat. He looked fit as a fiddle. Just Steel, that is. I didn’t see how Lukas looked.
I love this horse. He is such a pro, and he should be. The pedigree is gorgeous. I can’t help but wish that the old school training methods would prevail… that people would take Larry Bramlage’s observations about building bone strength seriously. If you can race to train and finish on the board, why not get that horse ready for the cavalry charge? He’s a serious racehorse, and he looks beautiful over the track. I don’t see why not!
P.S. – I watched an interview with Mr. Lukas, and he looked and sounded like he always does. I want to know how he found the fountain of youth (of legend, not the race).
Aside: I wonder if he sees Keith Asmussen’s career in the industry as a second chance to be a mentor after everything that went so tragically wrong for his own son. I don’t know that, so it may be that business is business, but it was a thought.
It would be great to see Just Steel get a piece of the pie on May 4. His only wins are in sprints, but heck, he was second to Catching Freedom at 8.5f and second to Muth at 9f.
Catching Freedom looked good! Have you seen Sierra Leone’s workout??
Mine That Bird won one dirt race – KD at CD
Animal Kingdom won one dirt race – KD at CD
Pioneerof the Nile best dirt race was 2nd in the KD.
Rick Strike best dirt races were at CD. His dam produced mostly turf horses.
Street Sense won the Blue Grass on all weather. His best races were at CD.
Barbaro was better on Turf. His best dirt race was at CD.
Endlessly is likely to struggle on a dirt surface that isn’t accommodating g to turf/synthetic types.
If he flops in the KD. He will still have bright future on Turf/Synthetic.
Horses Up !!! Ready for the workouts and post position draw.
You still have a week to the draw. Hang in there, lol
here are bits of information that will capture my attention that will be meaningless to others. When Lawyer Ron, then trained by Todd Pletcher, destroyed the Saratoga 9F track record in winning the Whitney. I revisited the pedigree of his sire Langfuhr.
Something I regarded as being a rare bit of inbreeding captured my attention. Langfuhr was sired by Danzig who was a grandson of Neactic and his dam Sweet Briar Too was a granddaughter of Nearctic. The single inbreeding/line breeding in Langfuhr’s pedigree is a close 3×3 to Neractic, a son of the great breed influencing Nearco who was undefeated in 14 starts.
Since discovering that unique bit of inbreeding regarding Langfuhr and given the success in the TC series of the Northern Dancer broodmare line. I flagged Langfuhr as a broodmare sire that had the potential to be associated with a KD winner and /or year end champion.
I haven’t seen many progeny from Landfuhr’s broodmares on the KD Trail. But in 2024 one has emerged in Endlessly who has won 5 of his 6 starts. His victories have been shared between All Weather and Turf. Although securing the points to be a starter in the KD. His connections appear to be in limbo regarding a KD start, in what would be his dirt debut.
I understand the reservation of the connections.But I am of the opinion they should contest the KD. This opportunity doesn’t come around often for many with a colt the caliber of Endlessly. There have been several KD winners with an All Weather/Turf profile.
Sea Hero –
Recorded his 1st & 2nd victories on turf before switching to dirt to win the G1 Champagne. He lost his next 3 dirt starts ahead of his 1993 KD victory.
Rich Strike –
Won the 2022 KD exiting 3 starts on All Weather.
Mine That Bird –
Won the 2009 KD with all his previous victories recorded on All Weather
Pioneerof The Nile
Finished 2nd in the KD with all previous wins on Turf/ All Weather
Animal Kingdom –
Won the 2011 KD with all previous wins on Turf/ All Weather
I have been waiting for a longtime to see if my assessment years ago that Langfuhr is a potential Derby winning broodmare sire was accurate. I hope the connections take a shot.
Broadsiding, by Too Darn Hot, wins the Group 1 Champagne Stakes at Royal Randwick in extremely wet conditions. Ferocious howling winds in pouring rain.
At last, a winner in the Australian Triple Crown, gallant win, brilliant ride by James McDonald. Australia’s best jockey does it again.
There is no stopping Godolphin.
As most know, Todd Pletcher has had 64 total horses compete in the KD. His first winner Super Saver was in 2010, his second winner Always Dreaming was in 2017. If that 7 year pattern holds…. We might see him in the winners circle.
A new ‘interpretation’ of the “Seven Year Itch”. lol.
Classic Empire
Lookin At Lucky
Lookin At Lucky was a Baffert trainee
Classic Empire was trained by Mark Casse
Not sure what your point is?
For Thoro Graph numbers, here are the 2 and 3 year old historical numbers for the top contenders in alphabetical order in one place from Steve’s above. For more detail of other horses, see his comments above. I just thought this form was easier to compare and then go back to read his comments:
Catching Freedom 9.75 9.75 7.25 5 4.75
Encino 13 7 2.5
Fierceness 3.5 12 -1.5 4 -3.25
Forever Young 11 8 5.75 1 1
Just A Touch 2.5. 2.5. 2.5
Just Steel 26.25 9.75 7.75 14.25 18 9.5 2.5 8 2.5 7 1
Honor Marie 11 7 5.5 9.75 5.5
Resilience 15.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 6.5 4
Sierra Leone 9 4.75. 4.5. 1.5
Stronghold 8 7 7.5 7 6.25 5.5
What’s the TGs for
T O Password
I read none were available
Horses that trace back to Hail To Reason are rarely seen in the KD. There is likely to be two undefeated KD entrants from the sire line i.e., Forever Young and T O Password.
Both were sired by grandsons of Sunday Silence who was a grandson of Hail To Reason. The grandson sequence continues with Turn To the sire of Hail To Reason being a grandson of the influential Nearco.
The sire line been represented by the following American TV series race winners:
Sunday Silence – KD/Preakness
Sunny’s Halo -KD
Barbaro – KD
Hail To All – Belmont
Proud Clarion – KD
Personality – Preakness
Sunny’s Halo won the 1983 KD and six year later Sunday Silence won. It was another 17 years before another Hal To Reason line KD winner emerged. That was the undefeated Barbaro.
A period of 17 years has elapsed since the undefeated Barbaro won the 2006 KD. Could we be in store for another undefeated winer from the Hail To Reason sire line, in a similar period between Sunday Silence and Barbaro?
Forever Young has a lot of support and has the resume to win the KD. He therefore is the logical choice of the two likely starters from the sire line. However, it should be noted that Barbaro was produced from a mare sired by a son of Mr. Prospector. T O Password was produced from a mare sired by a grandson of Mr. Prospector who was a mega router and Champion 3YO in Japan.
The sire line is overdue for a win and will be represented by two likely entrants. One is a known known and the other an unknown unknown. Given the aforementioned, the possibilities are endless.
Thanks
If Common Defense makes it the gate the he makes 3 Sunday Silence descendants. Also he desends from Gold Digger and Raise a Native .
Interesting post, Counter Point. I would argue that the reason the Hail to Reason sire line hasn’t been represented in the Derby of late is that his best top-sire grandsons were based overseas: Sunday Silence in Japan and Southern Halo in Argentina. Both are sons of Halo, arguably the best sire Hail to Reason produced.
Of the list of Derby horses you posted, only Sunday Silence has been a dominating sire. The rest had only minor success, and in the case of Barbaro, never made it to stud.
Unless I’m mistaken, 51 year old Johnny Velazquez is the only jockey in this year’s Derby with multiple wins. Animal Kingdom, Always Dreaming, Authentic, and Medina Spirit all crossed the line first, although Medina Spirit was DQ’d a week after his win. Not JV’s fault. If you are looking for Derby experience, winning experience, look no further than the guy sitting on the expected favorite.
Joel Rosario(39) won one on Orb in a slopfest.
Luis Saez(31) got to the finish line first aboard Maximum Security before being disqualified a half hour later(it seemed more like an hour and a half).
Flavien Prat(31) and Country House were handed the Derby in place of Maximum Security.
Florent Geroux(37) won the Derby with Mandaloun about a week after it was run in 2021 in the wake of the Medina Spirit episode. They missed all the fanfare.
Javier Castellano(46) won last year on Mage but lost his mount this year when No More Time was withdrawn due to a training injury. Hopefully, he finds another horse.
Not as much winning experience as you might think. Where’s Big Money Mike when you need him?
Bottom line: Johnny V has the favorite and won’t lose because he doesn’t know what to do. Prat and Saez are in their prime, but only Flavien looks to have a shot. Geroux and Rosario have mounts for top trainers. Both should be respected, though I prefer Florent’s horse.
Hey! It just hit me. Those French jockeys have been very lucky in the Derby. Neither one crossed the line first. And in Mandaloun’s case, his backers never got paid a dime. I better check to see if Julien Leparoux has a mount.
Irad Ortiz(31) has never won the Derby. Not yet. But he is also in his prime.
To take my silliness a little further, all 3 of Johnny V’s official winners have name that start with an “A”. Fierceness? No “A” in sight. There’s an angle for you.
Steve, I’m sure you’ve made note of the Brisnet pace and speed ratings for Resilience in the Wood Memorial. The high numbers in all categories point to a strong performance in the Derby, historically speaking. I’m liking him more every time I look at his record and the Wood replay.
Please allow me to chime in for a moment.
Welcome aboard the Resilience band wagon, I’ve been on board since January.
With respect to speed figures, he appears to be getting faster with each succeeding race. His ascending Equibase Speed numbers will back that up, (71-80-83-91-93-103).
In addition, as Steve noted, his Thoro-Graph improved to a 4 following his Wood Memorial win. By leading sire, Into Mischief, out of a Smart Strike mare, his pedigree reflects an excellent mix of speed, class and stamina, IMO. The fact that Resilience is a Pam and Martin Wygod homebred adds to his allure.
With the recent passing of Marty Wygod, it would be great tribute to him if the horse he bred (Resilience) were to win the Kentucky Derby.
BTW, I have more than a passing interest in Resilience, I have a $40.00 win wager on him in Futures Pool 3, at 107-1 and keyed him on top, with Catching Freedom and Deterministic underneath in a $2.00 Exacta wager. I remain hopeful that Deterministic will run in the Derby. His connections are still undecided.
Good luck Winston.
Thanks, Bill. I won’t be deciding until the 27th at the soonest. But I sure was impressed by Resilience’s last race and manner of going. Even if I don’t make a Derby day bet, I have my only two FW bets still very much alive (Catching Freedom, Stronghold).
Edit to say, Resilience closed at 93-1 in Pool 3, (not 107-1).
I have Deterministic in Pool 3 at 107-1. However, it appears Christophe Clement will not run Deterministic in the Derby, based on his disappointing 8th place finish in the Wood Memorial.
His Thoro Graph history is exactly what you want to see also. He just seems to need a bigger jump up in speed then he has done historically.
Bill S, I’ve found a number of Derby winners that made a big jump with regard to T-G numbers. It’s certainly not an exact science, as we all know.
Rave reviews for Fierceness’ workout today. Apparently, he put away workmate Agate Road rather easily. But seriously, Todd Pletcher seems very pleased with his horse.
You can watch the work on XBTV on X.
Thanks.
He looked very good and strong in the work
I’ve seen Fierceness work with Locked, and now Agate Road, and I wonder ….is Todd matching the right colts in his work teams? Fierceness has natural speed, why work him against colts with no early foot? Of course he looks Great— would Bob work his best colt against, say Mr Fisk? It may seem small, but Fierceness will need to be able to run :46 and keep on going…..
I can understand why people like Sierra Leone more than Fierceness, if they get bad starts—Sierra Leone could still win but Fierceness needs an alert break or else he doesn’t hit the board …that said ….I’m wondering where the early pace is going to come from!..
I am in agreement Matthew W. If Fierceness gets an outside post, watch out. Even so, Sierra Leone will have a good chance of winning or finishing second.
Looks like the pressure will come from Dornoch, Track Phantom, and/or Just a Touch. I haven’t heard that Encino will defect, so add him to the mix.
Three year old Mr Skylight runs early on the Keeneland card tomorrow, for Riley Mott…..debut at Gulfstream he ran a good 2nd, at 70-1…..came back and broke his maiden but you’d never think he would have, after his dismal break from the gate. Alas no more 70-1 he’s 4/5 ML…..
Homebred was offered at two sales but failed to reach his reserve price, owner/breeder happy about that!. .
There’s a good interview today with Ben Curtis, Honor Marie’s jock, at thoroughbredracing.com. Look under Racing/Commentary. He’s worked HM at Churchill, so it sounds like he might stick with the mount for the Derby.
Thanks, Dewey. That’s a nice article. Honor Marie certainly wouldn’t be the first Derby winner trained and ridden by Derby first-timers. Rich Strike, Smarty Jones, Spectacular Bid…
Steve Cauthen didn’t do too badly in the Triple Crown races first time anround either.
That was a wonderful article, thank you!
Aww, Ben seems like a wonderful man – and he’s clearly a capable jockey. I know he’s has no experience in the Derby, but he has ridden in the Epsom Derby ….
Thanks Dewey.
Run free with the Heavenly Herd Lonhro. Many of us will miss you.
Lonhro had a great deal of talent and heart. What a great champion he was Darley stood him in Kentucky for 2 years and he wasn’t popular as a sire in the US. That is sad, but I am glad he was appreciated in Australia.
Equibase figures 100 Points Preps:
Just Steel – 2nd Ak Derby – 112
Fierceness – 1st FL Derby – 110
Sierra Leone – 1st Blue Grass – 107
Resilience – 1st Wood Memorial – 103
Stronghold – 1st S A Derby – 99
Endlessly – Jeff Ruby – 99
Catching Freedom -1st LA Derby – 98
What was so significant about the AK Derby that Just Steel was assigned 112. A figure higher than the 110 assigned to Fierceness. His TG for the race was 1.
Would Muth have been the ML favorite.?
Nope, Muth would not have been the Derby fave, but Fierceness, Sierra Leone, Forever Young’s prices would have been better …
Hi all, not to derail but I was wondering if anyone has preferred sites to read up on the Oaks. I love the Derby but am mainly a fan of the fillies and given Ruffian’s birthday yesterday and having a bunch of work obligations this year bit out of things. Feel free to email me directly angela.whyland6 at gmail. With apologies for the interruption here.
If this is a slow year for the colts, then it’s an even slower year for the fillies! My Oaks filly is Thorpedo Anna! Cost only $40 by Fast Anna….I like her a lot, and intend on fashioning an Oaks/Derby Double with Thorpedo Anna to six Derby horses….
Thanks Matt. Much appreciated.
What about the $900K Medaglia D’ Oro filly? Given her pedigree she should love the surface at CD.
The judge has made his ruling. The ones we have been watching (and possibly some on the bubble) are the field, no surprises. No Muth, and no Imagination, for that matter.
I wish I had the time and space to write about the Oaks. But cetainly anyone is free to comment on it.
Steve, you probably could write 10,000 words or more on the Oaks, and we would drink it like the fountain of youth but we don’t want to over work you!
$20 across the board on Domestic Product with Irad Ortiz on his back wouldn’t be the worst bet in the world. Irad Ortiz is going to win a Derby one of these days. Possibly 20-1. Chad Brown, Seth Klarman, and Irad Ortiz have won lots of races together. His ordinary numbers will keep his odds up. I can’t help but wonder how the slow paces that he has encountered have affected those numbers. Steve Haskin would know better than I how they come up with those numbers. I remember thinking after his Tampa Bay Derby how slow the fractions were that day. I mean sloooooooow! They were walking.
I wagered him in the KDFP @81/1
I hope that you hit that wager. That would be an awesome score.
I wagered him in an early KDFP @81/1
It just “seems” like a “perfect” road to Derby success, the way Honor Marie is approaching The Derby—-3rd start of form cycle, which played out well for him, last year ……”favorite” track……an ” iffy” favorite……no real strong front running type. ….Honor Marie will be 15-1, which is the price I took on I’ll Have Another, another colt that I latched on to early on, and kept on improving…..
He may be even higher odds than that!
Only the jockey situation makes me nervous / either we’ll have a jock who has never ridden in the Derby – or at CD or a jock who is unfamiliar with him
There’s still Bejarano! But I like his recent rider, and wonder why they are replacing him ……..
Well they aren’t …yet. Curtis is still at the top of their list, but they’re waiting to see how things shake out. They seem to value Derby experience, rightly so.. But I don’t like the idea of a new jock who’s never ridden HM before getting the mount in the biggest race in the world
I can’t see them going back to Bejerano…
Is the KD the biggest race in the world?
The Kentucky Derby is the biggest race in the world …and the best Thoroughbreds in the world are Kentucky bred ….
Matthew, don’t believe all the hype that Churchill Downs pumps out for domestic consumption in the US. Ha ha The Kentucky Derby is not as prominent overseas as some may think.
Coolmore, Godolphin/Darley, Juddmonte, Aga Khan Studs and Japan might give you a debate on Kentucky breds being the best in the world as well.
Racing certainly gets the blood up. Good for you.
Horses bred in which county have been dominating the international scene?
Why do the European bred horses dominate their American counterparts in the Breeders’ Cup turf races, if the best thoroughbreds in the world are Kentucky bred?
The KD is a dirt race therefore a distinction should be made.
Did not mean to ruffle feathers, but I believe you asked and so I answered…..I can’t remember the (British) movie I recently saw, when they were mentioning a big horse race they said Kentucky Derby…..plenty of good horses from all over the world, that trace back to Kentucky breds…..
A change to a new rider is rarely a popular move, but it happens successfully from time to time.
Betsy, European jockeys are used to riding in races like the Kentucky Derby on a regular basis. I hope they stick with Ben Curtis. The return of Rafael Bejarano would be a fatal error.
You mean in terms of distance? That’s true – and certainly they ride very unusual courses. Still, it’s the Derby, and Curtis has no experience with the craziness, the crowds, the noise, the huge field….At least the Fair Grounds long stretch is similar to CD…
I don’t see them going back to RB – they replaced him for a reason
Not really distance, Betsy. More riding tight in large fields with a horse that runs late.
Ben Curtis has ridden in the Epsom Derby where the record crowd attendance is 250,000 and the record field is 34. Moreover Curtis has won at Royal Ascot in front of the late Queen Elizabeth.
I think we can forget about Ben Curtis being overawed at Churchill Downs on Kentucky Derby day. Ha ha
“The return of Rafael Bejarano would be a fatal error.”
That’s a very unkind assertion. Sonny Leon was a relatively unknown jockey. He certainly doesn’t have the accomplishments of Bejerano. Yet he rose to the occasion in the 2022 KD with his equine partner who was given an 80/1 chance of winning by the wagering public.
The facts that the jockey has lost the ride on Honor Marie doesn’t warrant him being disparaged.
We all know you are a hardcore guy. But always remember to be kind.
Lol. Who is criticizing Rafael Bejarano, personally? It’s his style of riding a closer like Honor Marie in a race like the Kentucky Derby with 20 runners that would be the problem.
Matthew, I remember watching I’ll Have Another training at Churchill Downs and he looked spectacular. When Richard Migliore thought the same the bet was made.
Usually there is one or two colts that just appear destined to win. In recent times, Orb, American Pharaoh, California Chrome come to mind.
I do like Honor Marie exactly the same way you have mentioned above. The trainer impresses me as well – straight talking, with not a hint of chicanery.
The Derby is a hard race to form a 5-horse trifecta box! So many nice horses …..I leave the Japan horses off my ticket, not for lack of quality—I thought Derma Sotogake was/is a top colt, I think Forever Young might be, as well, my question is who has he been beating? My other question is will the multiple time zone changes eventually remove the horse’s “edge”…..eating times, and sleeping times….the Japan to Saudi Arabia to Dubai to Louisville time zone changes could—-Im saying COULD—hurt his chances….if ever a Japan based colt were to win the roses, this looks like as good a year as any recent runnings….I will let him beat me but I certainly respect anything that comes out of Japan …
Matthew, let me help you with that 5-horse trifecta box. In the last 25 years, the first two favorites in the Derby were both out of the money 7 times. That includes 2019 when second choice Maximum Security was disqualified. The trifecta payouts were huuuuuge. Here’s a reasonable suggestion for your five horses, with the win odds that I would expect:
Catching Freedom (10-1), Honor Marie (25-1), Just a Touch (15-1), Resilience (18-1), Stronghold (15-1)
You should know that I’ve never lost a derby trifecta bet. I’ve never made one either.
Why the first disclosure?
Thank you Winston, right now I have SIX…… Fierceness, Sierra Leone, Catching Freedom, Honor Marie, Just Steel, Mystik Dan, I am bullish on Mystik Dan and Honor Marie!….
All good, though I suspect that Danny boy would prefer a soggy surface.
I’m hoping it’s nice and dry, I think ‘Dan’s odds could climb high—yes he won his big performance in the slop—but he did that from post eleven, and he won by eight lengths…..The Arkansas Derby had soft fractions, and Dan lost valuable ground, at the five furlong pole….all things considered I think he’s flying way under the radar ….
I see him between 25-1 and 30-1 at post time.
Whilst reviewing the list of winners of the Sunland Derby at the 9F distance. I saw that the Todd Pletcher trained Cutting Humor set the Stakes & track Record at 1:46. 94 in his 2019 victory.
I cannot recall any prior 9F KD Prep completed in 1:46 plus. It is therefore surprising that he was only assigned an Equibase figure of 97.
When a horse runs that fast at a location significantly above sea level, it should be a monster at sea level. Cutting Humor finished 11th by 9 1/4L in the KD.
I can think of two sub 1:47 Derby preps ….1957 Gen Duke, who suffered an injury and didn’t compete in the Derby, probably the greatest crop, the 1957 Derby had Bold Ruler, Round Table, Gallant Man and the winner Iron Leige, who only won because Shoemaker misjudged the finish line, pulling up Gallant Man……the other I recall was Althea’s Arkansas Derby—she was made the Derby favorite…..
Spend A Buck 1:45 4/5 at Garden State
And Spend A Buck really ran them off their feet! No 1:11 and change, like Fierceness… I recall Spend A Buck doing 1:09 and change, in the Derby….. Fierceness will have to step it up, and he may….
I have read all the commentary below, most of which is negative, about Forever Young and none of it has deterred me from thinking that this colt has a real shot at winning the Kentucky Derby.
It is my methodology to look at the total horse from connections to pedigree, race record, conformation, manner and way of going, attitude, conditioning, work history and the manner in which a horse overcomes adversity in a race and demeanor.
Yes, all of these speed figures are important but to me they are just one of many pieces of the puzzle that completes the puzzle that a Thoroughbred race horse is.
Forever Young has been on the track every morning since his arrival at Churchill Downs including this morning. He goes out for a steady, uncomplicated gallop no doubt by design to maintain his conditioning.
He is ridden in a simple bridle with snaffle bit. No harsh ring bit. No shadow roll, no dropped nose band.
His demeanor is one a relaxed, calm horse who is interested in his surroundings with ears pricked. When his exercise rider tries to pick up his stirrups, Forever Young pays no mind. His exercise rider is riding with a loose rein and minimal contact with the colt’s mouth.
When on the track he just gallops along steadily, no antics that I have seen such as lugging on the bit, swishing his tail, no erratic movements.
I think his Saudi race was his best. Race commentators exclaimed “Where did that come from?”.
He did not break well, was boxed in and had to go 4 wide to get a clear running path to dig in his heels and came flying to nip the front runner at the wire. He overcame adversity to win that race.
Some on here no doubt think I am naive or uneducated when it comes to Thoroughbred horse racing. In fact on Steve’s Blood Horse blog there were individuals, one of whom comments here, did refer to me in those terms.
I am often wrong about the projected winner of a race, but I am often right as well.
I like what I see in Forever Young. Does that translate to a Derby win, maybe, maybe not. Racing gods and lady luck will have their say on race day.
Agreed Linda! Alot of people say alot of things.
Concise and professional. I have always valued your opinion, wisdom, objectiveness and experience. Now more then ever *Clapping emoji*
Bill, thanks for your kind words.
My comment above was in response to Lynda King’s post. To add to it, I do give some credence to closer Domestic Product, as a longshot to win and a good chance to finish in the superfecta. His jockey handled Mo Donegal well, a closer in the 2022 Derby with a poor post.
Lynda,
The colt does have a shot at winning. You ae correct about his Saudi race. The CD surface which is accommodating to turf types and will be ideal for Forever Young.
Lynda, your observations about Forever Young are so on point. You notice things about horses from the perspective of a real horsewoman, and like Steve, you write so well about them that I can visualize what you saw.
You are right about speed figures too — at some point, the various methodologies all tend to point in the same general direction. As I’ve said before, it’s obvious who the three top horses in the Derby are going to be. The question is, which one is most likely to make his own racing luck and be there at the wire?
You make a good case for Forever Young. He certainly won’t beat himself.
Lynda, the comments here are predominantly glowing in regard to Forever Young. And I don’t think it’s fair to call differing opinions about a horse’s chances of winning as “negative.” Anyway, I always value your comments about conformation, pedigree, and the physical appearance of Derby prospects.
Winston, you are correct. I could have and in hind sight should have made my case for Forever Young without casting dispersions on those who do not see Forever Young winning.
Just to add another observation. Forever Young’s running style is very much like AP Indy and Arrogate. He drops his head and lowers his neck when he stretches out.
I am no expert nor do I profess to have knowledge of Counter Point’s comment that Churchill Downs favors “turf type” horses. He has mentioned that twice, that FY is a turf type.
Granted his sire and grandsire were turf horses however there is as abundance of dirt horses blood running through his veins. Several horses that won the Derby found success on turf including Secretariat of course, California Chrome and Barbaro who raced and won on turf before winning the Derby. Some sires can throw both an example being Justify.
Very interesting article up on Blood Horse. It lists the finish time and final splits for previous Kentucky Derby winners in their last prep race before winning the Derby. It then lists then same times for the last prep for this year’s contenders. Forever Young certainly holds his on when compared to favorites Fierceness and Sierra Leone.
In all fairness the one downside to Forever Young is kickback.
I appreciate your reply, Lynda. I’ll defer to you, Steve, and others on the physical/visual aspects. I have no idea of what The Count is referring to in regard to CD and turf types. I can’t imagine that whatever it is he’s thinking is germane.
Thanks for pointing out the Bloodhorse piece. I keep my own records on final fractions, and I did not calculate “projections” for FY. He did seem to be going well in the final furlong, however. I assure you that I wish him well in the Derby, and I won’t feel that my doubts were validated if he doesn’t perform to the expectations of his supporters. There are far too many outcomes that cannot be explained with easy answers.
You’re speaking to the choir here, Lynda. I agree with you on the positive signs and accomplishments that Forever Young has exhibited. You are far more eloquent than I am in speaking of his strengths and I appreciate you for doing so.
Thanks for being steadfast in your support of Forever Young.
I understand why folks don’t like Forever Young. History has not been kind to a Japan base runner. He had some runs where he ran wide. If he repeats that in the derby it’s a probably not a good thing.
Then there’s the argument of who did he beat??
So yeah there’s quite a bit of things against him.
There’s always a first for everything and records to be broken. I recalled Steve mentioned of horses not racing as a 2 year old just don’t win the derby. Then all sudden horses that didn’t run until 3 started winning the derby.
So could this be the year for a Japanese horse?? Shoot anything goes in the derby! Just like Rich Strike.
I do like what I see and I am a big fan of Sunday Silence and his bloodline.
Will they stick with Ryusei Sakai? I wonder about that, too, similar to Betsy’s concern above about rider choice for Honor Marie.
Yes, Katy, they will stick with Ryusei Sakai. In fact, he will arrive in Louisville this weekend and will be in the irons for Forever Young’s first work at Churchill on Sunday, I believe.
As they say, don’t fix what’s not broken.
Lynda King, you are very knowledgeable. Don’t take in negative stuff that others put out. Forever Young’s great grandsire is Sunday Silence and he won the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness. As you know, he also is responsible for the dominance of the Japanese in horse racing and breeding. Sunday Silence is in the pedigree of 70% of Japanese thoroughbreds.
Also, the Japanese are training their horses in a track that mimics race tracks that are in the US. I don’t know the exact parameters or surface of the training track in Japan.
It seems that with US horses exports to Japan, they are trying merge the characteristics of Secretariat and Seattle Slew with Sunday Silence.
I’ve given Forever Young more credence than I thought I would, partly due to your positive comments and partly due to those who oppose him, who haven’t given good reasons. He looked good in the races I watched, especially the last one. I was skeptical of the Saudi race due to its length and his beating a sprinter who’d run out of gas. But in the UAE Derby, which was almost the Derby distance, he showed he could handle the distance with aplomb. I don’t think the KD record of UAE Derby winners or of Japanese horses matters, if the horse is good enough. He seems like a reliable, strong closer. I’m still not sold on Sierra Leone as a reliable closer, due to how long he takes to unwind and then veers left in the stretch. His closing fractions are slow. His jockey isn’t one of the best for the Derby. I don’t give any credence to most of the other closers, who haven’t done much. Honor Marie, whose popularity on here is a mystery to me, is a good example. I think this is going to be a front end race with one or two closers in the mix and Forever Young is one of them.
I am hoping for a good placing by “Catching Freedom”, Steve! Thanks as always for all your insights!
Anyone know which day the Kentucky Derby Morning Works Show will begin this year?
I also like APharoah12’s YouTube videos to see the horses on track.
Anyone other video channels I’m missing?
Hi Steve, from KentuckyderbyDOTcom dated today.
“KENTUCKY DERBY MORNING WORKS SHOW TO BEGIN SATURDAY– The “Kentucky Derby Morning Works Show presented by TwinSpires.com” will begin its 13-day run on Saturday and feature Churchill Downs’ expert handicappers Joe Kristufek, Kaitlin Free, Tony Calo and Kevin Kilroy along with an array of popular industry figures such as former leading rider Rosie Napravnik, Churchill Downs Track Announcer Travis Stone and TwinSpires.com handicapper James Scully.”
Awesome, thanks Gary!
GREAT !!! Thank you very much
Yay! I’ve been looking for this, too. Twitter is hit or miss, and ain’t my jam in general. Thanks for the update!
Okay y’all there are too many figures for me to deal with. Math is not my strong suit. At this point in the “picking my Derby horse” process. I have narrowed my selections down to 10 horses. In alphabetical order: Catching Freedom, Dornoch, Encino, Fierceness, Forever Young, Honor Marie, Just Steel, Resilience, and Sierra Leone. Yeah I know, I have only eliminated half the field. I will narrow it down to five and go with them. I am keeping Dornoch just because it would be awesome for a broodmare to produce two Derby winners. Emotion over logic every time. Thanks Steve for your work.
The draw should shed some light regarding selections.
Since this column is on speed figs..I was down the rabbit hole of TG archives and looked at 2007. Curlin’s debut through the Belmont:
0, 0, -0, 0, -3, -0.
Think that crop was good??
Oh man, weren’t they? They were so much fun to watch, and they had excellent 3 y/o campaigns that let us see them match up repeatedly, too.
They have also been great in the breeding shed! Top three Derby finishers have all sired multiple MGSWs. Not sure this class has that kind of CLASS. That might have been a high point of being “thoroughly bred.”
Random thoughts:
*The connections of Dornoch, Track Phantom and, perhaps, Just a Touch obviously know that Fierceness is vulnerable if he is unable to get the early lead. I’m sure they’ll be trying to make that happen. Will they soften up the champ, or will they be tossed aside like wilted lettuce?
*Don’t underestimate the importance of the track condition — on Derby day and as described in past performance records. Backers of Mystik Dan are hoping for a return to the impressive form he showed in the muddy Southwest Stakes. On a fast track he was 0 for 3 in races at a mile and over, losing by 8, 3 1/4, and 6 1/4 lengths.
*Will a Japan-based horse ever win a Kentucky Derby? Will a UAE Derby runner ever win a Kentucky Derby? A lot of folks seem to believe that both will happen this year, and it will be accomplished by one good-looking colt named Forever Young. He is headed toward post-time odds of 8-1 or lower as the third choice. Does anyone think he has an 11% or 12% chance (or higher) of winning the Derby?
Usually, how a derby horse looks and trains in the weeks before the race can confirm his past performance. But what do we know about FY’s performance and competition? Book’em Danno and Pandagate are decent U.S. horses, but are they on the same level as those who are expected to be entered in the Kentucky Derby? What about the running of FY’s races? What were the fractions? Is there a result chart? How reliable are the T-G figures for tracks in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates? There are far too many questions about this colt to consider him as a serious Derby contender.
You bring up excellent points, Winston. True, Forever Young is 5 for 5 and has back-to-back Thoro-Graph numbers of 1 and 1, but aside from that, there are a lot of unknows regarding this Japanese colt. I might use him underneath in some of my exotic wagers, but I certainly won’t place any win wagers on him. Based on all the publicity FY has been receiving, I suspect the general betting public will hammer him at the windows.
I wouldn’t be surprised if he winds up as the 2nd favorite behind Fierceness.
Bottom line, Forever Young has two chances on winning the Kentucky Derby, slim and none, IMO.
Forever Young is not for me.
Thanks, Bill. Yes indeed, he will likely be the biggest underlay of the Derby field. A colt with his record might be worth a bet at 25-1, maybe even 20-1. Second choice? I doubt it. But he could be as low as 6-1 at post time.
FY has many miles under his belt.
You bring up excellent points about you not knowing race fractions, etc for Forever Young. This information is readily available with some research but I will bring up just a couple of points: his shortest race is one mile and 4 at 1 1/8 miles or greater which he won all of them, some in track record time, which to me indicates a proven love of distance none of the American horses can come close to saying. 4 of his races are graded stakes including international races where many countries send some of their best horses. America does not send many for the 3 year olds but we send many of our stars to Riyadh and Dubai and Europe and Melbourne and the Japanese horses have beaten them time and again over the past few years including MANY who say Equinox was the best horse in the world for last two years. I say that to say that the Japanese Thoroughbred Association seems to have done an excellent job of helping their horse industry dominates many of the most prestigious races in the world. IMO saying Forever Young is not a serious contender may be short sided. I will leave you with this. I do not know every fraction like in America but when the Japanese Thoroughbred Association, whose horses are dominating the world races, says that Forever Young’s rating as a two year was the highest rating ever given a two year old in its history and he has shipped across the world after that and won both his prestigious international races, one beating track record by two seconds, that I might not choose to say this horse is not a serious contender. Just a thought.
Thanks for your reply, Bill S. I’m glad that you’ve changed your mind since yesterday about this not being an “argument forum to go back and forth.” You’ve made a number of points to which I’ll make an effort to respond to some of them. First, I realize that my wording “serious contender” was not precise. As I said in a subsequent post, I could possibly make a wager on FY at 20-1, but not at the expected low odds. I typically find a half dozen Derby runners that I consider as “serious” contenders. This year is no different, and FY is not one of them. I come to this opinion not because of how he compares to the other U.S.-raced entrants, but because I find it difficult – if not impossible in some respects – to compare.
You said that race fractions are readily available. All that I find are projections, and those were not found in official sources such as PPs or charts. Maybe I just don’t know where to look.
You said that FY has had four races at 1 1/8m or longer, which you said indicates “a proven love of distance none of the American horses can come close to saying.” The PPs show just three such races, the same number as Sierra Leone and Society Man. Regardless, if his races are against inferior company in inferior races, a comparison is not valid.
You said that four of his races were in graded stakes. According to my sources, including Brisnet PPs and Bloodhorse, only the Saudi and UAE races were graded.
It’s great that you’re a “huge fan” of Forever Young. Unfortunately, that isn’t helpful in analyzing the Derby in an objective manner.
You are right and I will go back to my earlier statement and should have not addressed incorrect information as this is not the forum. I am sorry for the post. The facts stand by themselves and anyone who researches them will see that. My post was not needed. Again please accept my apology.
“The connections of Dornoch, Track Phantom and, perhaps, Just a Touch obviously know that Fierceness is vulnerable if he is unable to get the early lead.”
I find the above assumption/assertion interesting.
In the BCJ, Fierceness tracked the leader General Partner who was also the leader in the Champagne in which Fierceness finished last but one by 20L. All are aware Fierceness won in a blowout tracking from 2nd.
Why would it be assumed that a colt with an in and out form line, running against the best of his peers, will only be vulnerable if he doesn’t secure the lead?
Subject to correction, the last two gate to wire winners of the KD were War Emblem and Winning Colors. It wouldn’t be a stretch to assert that both were the fastest entrants in the field. The fractions for the first 6F were not overly fast. See below:
Winning Colors – 23; 46 4/5; 1:11 4/5.
War Emblem—–23.25; 47.04; 1:11.75
The comparative average fractions for the last 20 KDs contested over a fast track is 22.80; 46.80; 1:10.90.
Is Fierceness the fastest horse in the likely field? He was not on the lead in 3 of his 5 starts. Such a record doesn’t epitomize an exceptionally fast colt. An exceptionally fast,colt even on an off day would have been pulling its rider out of the saddle in a Holy Bull with fractions of 25.03; 50.03; 1:14.25.
I challenge any supporter of this pace to provide a KD entrant purported to be the fastest in the field that wouldn’t have been on the lead when fractions anywhere near those recorded in the 2024 Holy Bull.
Fierceness is widely regarded as the entrant to beat in the KD off his FL Derby win and the resulting Speed/TG figures. Fractions for 9F KD dirt preps:
FL Derby —24.06; 47.50; 1:11.35; 1:35.63; 1:48.22
Blue Grass -22.15; 46.48; 1:10.83; 1:36.65; 1:50.08.
SA Derby—22.72; 46.73; 1:10.90; 1:36.88; 1:49.98
AK Derby—23.43; 47.46; 1:12.26; 1:37..25; 1:49.54
Wood M—-23.45; 47.49; 1:12.31; 1:37..35; 1:50.28
Fierceness recorded the slowest 2F & 4F splits. He was walking the dog for the first 4F and none of his opponents could get him to increase his pace to a jog. As a result, he was very fast on the back end.
If the TP colt secured a good break. Who will he lead with his FL Derby 2F & 4F fractions? Certainly not the top contenders with high cruising speed. There are 46 half mile entrants in the field. There is an opponent that has a 1:35 plus mile (Stronghold)
The expected ML favorite will be vulnerable even with a decent break. Why? He neither has Bodemiester speed nor his consistency and that colt enjoyed an uncontested lead and was passed close home by a classy closer.
I cannot envisage Fierceness with an uncontested lead under any scenario. this would only occur with 22 & 45 fractions. If he runs that fast, he will pay the ultimate price in the last furlong.
The Arkansas Derby fractions were soft! It’s why I’m looking again, at Mystik Dan! Derby pace should be faster ….
The statement was about how horsemen see the race playing out. Additionally, “vulnerable” means just that. Do you think that trainers and jockeys of the other early speed horses will be content to let Fierceness get an early lead? That’s not likely. With regard to fractions at different tracks and estimations of what might transpire in the 20-horse field, all I can say is Good luck!
Early pace predictions in the Derby are extremely difficult. The fractions in preps usually don’t translate to the fractions in the Derby. Horses that are expected to lead often don’t, and vice versa. Predicted fast paces often don’t materialize, and predicted slower paces can sometimes be quick.
By the way, you omitted Maximum Security and Medina Spirit as gate to wire Derby winners. Yes, both were DQed. But they finished first, and nobody that I know thinks that either colt would have lost because of the infractions.
Noted.
On the subject of vulnerability. Fierceness is only vulnerable if he doesn’t get the lead. I cannot agree with such a notion. He is likely to face only one entrant he defeated in his blowout wins.
On the subject of gate to wire KD winners. I did state that subject to correction. But neither Maximum Security nor Medina Spirit are official winners of the KD. In any event both were likely to have been running with enhancers.
For those interested in overseas racing “Triple Crown action”early, the 3rd leg of the Australian Triple Crown for 2 year olds, the Group 1 Champagne Stakes will be run at Royal Randwick at 3pm AEST over a mile. Yes, it’s raining again at Soggy Sydney on Saturday.
I had put the field in but that is waiting moderation. Enjoy.
Davids-another Champagne Stakes in another part of the world for two year olds? Any relation to the one in held in NY?
Also, nobody has really given an explanation of why some countries calling races Group 1 and other countries, i.e. the US, calling races Grade 1-is it the same kind of race with a different name or not?
Thanks,
Not to mention a Champagne Stakes for 2-year-olds in the U.K. But none in France? That’s strange! Ha ha!
Going to France this fall.
Great for you, Mike, I wish I could tag along. France is the ultimate place for me, especially racing.
Thanks Davids!
Yes Winston, 1823 was the inaugural date, now the race is part of the Doncaster four-day St. Leger Festival for 2 year old colts and geldings – Group 2 – South Yorkshire.
Even so, I suspect you know this already.
John the Australian Champagne Stakes was inaugurated in 1861 while the New York equivalent was inaugurated in 1867. Britain, France and Ireland authorities developed Pattern racing and in 1971 the European Pattern Committee was established and the first European Pattern published – Group races.
It was in 1973 that the Thoroughbred Owners and Breeders Association (TOBA) commenced the project of grading North American stakes races similar to what the European Pattern Committee had begun. North American races were first designated with graded designations then.
Black type for stakes races was begun in 1952 by Fasig-Tipton to designate stakes winners in a pedigree using bold type, with winners in all caps and stakes placings in mixed case to show buyers and breeders horses and races of import. Keeneland did the same in 1960.
Thank you steve, this is exactly what I was looking for.
find it perplexing that Stronghold’s TG score was 7 for his maiden breaker at CD. The colt’s final time for the 8F MSW was 1:35.99. The 8F average split for the last 20 KDs on a fast track is 1:36.33.
The colt therefore recorded a faster time than the KD average in his 2nd start and first beyond 6F.
SA Derby fractions —-22.72; 46.73; 1:10.90; 1:36.88; 1:49.98
Blue Grass fractions — 23.15; 46.48; 1:10.83; 1:36.65; 1:50.08
How does Just A Touch get a 2 12/L and Strong hold a 5 1/2 with the numbers above so close?
After winning the Sunland Derby. Stronghold’s 4th work back was 5F in 58.40. A race 2.000 feet above sea level can boast oxygen efficiency.
Given this colt broke his maiden in a very fast time over a mile at CD. And given that he seems to be much improved after the Sunland Derby victory. It wouldn’t be a surprise if he is the entrant that runs by the leaders turning for home and sustain a strong gallop to the line.
Stronghold has to be a top 5 KD entrant.
Good points. I actually like his chances. When was the last time the winner of the Santa Anita Derby was considered a long shot? I don’t know. I like his looks, reminds one of his sire, same coloring, only a smaller version, but beautifully conformed. I don’t know about his being a January foal, which isn’t a big month for the winner of the Kentucky Derby to be born. But that might be good in this case, because if he is anything like his sire he is going to get better with age. After his last we know he is a fighter which can’t be bad in a race like the Derby.
Sorry to disagree with you but comparing times at two different tracks 3,000 miles apart is hardly a good point. That’s using 2nd grade arithmetic to solve a calculus problem. He obviously doesnt know how Thoro-Graph figures are calculated And 7 1/2 for a 2yo .maiden. race isnt bad.. you have to know the other times that day .
October 1, 2023. That was quite a day at Churchill Downs. Two divisions of a 1m MSW were on the card. The first one was won by Catching Freedom in his debut. The second, won by Stronghold, also featured future graded-stakes winners and Derby contenders Resilience and Track Phantom.
The answer to your question: Santa Anita Derby winner Gormley in 2017 was 22-1. I’ll Have Another in 2012 was 15-1. Tiago in 2007 was 14-1. Buzzards Bay in 2005 was a whopping 46-1. Castledale in 2004 was 21-1.
Only about 9% of foals are born in January, so it’s not surprising that there’s been no Derby winner born that month. Perhaps the percentage of Derby runners foaled in January is even lower than 9.
60% of Thoroughbred foals in the United States are born in February and March and that percentage is pretty much equally divided between the two months. April is the next month with the most foals then May. You are correct, the fewest number of foals are born in January.
Grindstone who was 1996 KD winner born on January 23.
Youngest to win KD was Exterminator in 1915 who was born on May 30.
Of course, Grindstone. Stronghold was born a day later – January 24 in 2021. And if American Pharoah had been born two days earlier than his actual birthdate of February 2, he would have had no chance to win the Derby and the Triple Crown. 😉
Of those two maiden races I would say Stronghold ran in the better field. he bested Resilience and Track Phantom. – not too shabby. Catching Freedom ran well in his race, encountered traffic issues and was still able to win.
I’ll Have Another. 15-1 and we know what happened.
See my reply above, El.
Not convinced he wants 10F.
More about the closing times. The last 3/8s and last 1/8. The 4 horses that are pointed out as the likeliest winners of the Derby are Fierceness, Catching Freedom, Honor Marie, and Forever Young. Not in any particular order. You’ll notice that well fancied horses Sierra Leone and Just a Touch don’t make the grade. However, to my eyes, Sierra Leone just missed the cut-off and Just a Touch tired after running hard all the way at his first try around 2-turns and at a mile an eighth. I’m keeping both of those horses in.
So, I’ll focus heavily on 5 of those 6 horses and revisit Honor Marie. I really don’t like Honor Marie’s chances to win, but that doesn’t mean that he can’t hit the board. And he has run well at Churchill.
One last thing about those closing fractions, Domestic Product and Endlessly are pointed out as possible longshots.
Tommy, to what are you referring in regard to Sierra Leone not making the grade about final fractions? I haven’t looked at final 3/8 times, but I’m familiar with the historical data on the final furlong of Derby winners’ last preps. Sierra Leone went the final eighth in about 13 sec — maybe a tick under depending on how you measure a 2.5-length gain (he also earned a very good 97 Late Pace rating). The last three Derby winners (last two if you don’t wish to include the pandemic year) all got the final eighth in 13 1/5 sec. In 2016, the Derby winner ran the final eighth of his prep in 12 4/5; in 2013 it was 13 sec; in 2011, it was 13 2/5. In both 2006 and 2008, the Derby winner ran the final furlong of the last prep in 13 sec.
Just a Touch may be suspect on this question, but Sierra Leone is fine.
I think Just a Touch has the running style and one more move forward- and not a huge one- to win. He should be 10-1/15-1 which is a fair price. Much more value than others.
A really nice colt. He should be Mage-type odds, 15-1.
I see so many people picking Forever Young that I had to ask myself what I have against the horse. After all, he’s 5 for 5. Has travelled well. Has won his last 2 while racing wide which indicates that stamina won’t be a problem. As Steve Haskin points out, has decent Thoro-Graph numbers. Moreover, there is an article over on Bloodhorse that
Bill S mentions which points him out as one of the 4 most likely winners.
So, I watched the replays of the Saudi Derby and UAE Derby. After a slowish break and wide trip in Saudi Arabia, Forever Young was all out to beat Book ’em Danno by a nose on the money. Bentornato finished 3rd.
In the UAE Derby, Forever Young broke better, but again got caught wide around the turn before closing impressively to beat Autobahn and the New York-bred Pandagate.
I guess it’s who he has beaten that bothers me. I know Book’em Danno, Bentortato, and Pandagate. Decent horses, but not exactly the cream of the crop as far as our 3-year-olds go. I don’t know Autobahn. The horse with the great name. Maybe he’s a good one.
Whatever, Forever Young must be respected for his will to win, his history of racing and winning at different tracks, and being able to win while racing wide which suggests stamina. I’m starting to think that he could be the first UAE Derby horse to hit the board in the Derby. Maybe even better.
Bottom line: I’m bringing him back into my plans. At least temporarily until after post positions are drawn.
Tommy McD, you are right about the Saudi race. Forever Young broke from the 9 post on the gate and was all out in a 1 mile race beating a well known pure sprinter at his own game after flying over from Japan. Oh by the way, he broke the track record for the distance by 2 full seconds.
What’s better? To handicap by logic, or to handicap with imagination. Einstein said, “logic will take you from A to B, imagination will take you everywhere.” I wonder if Einstein ever bet a horse race, I could imagine him being a great handicapper.
Mark Twain said,” You can’t depend on your eyes when your imagination is out of focus.” I know that my imagination has come up with some really nice payoffs even when my eyes were telling me something else.
If Dr. Seuss was a horseplayer, he would have probably gone by his saying,
“I like nonsense, it wakes up the braincells”. And,
” You are only given a little spark of madness. You mustn’t lose it.”, Robin Williams.
And most importantly, “Have fun handicapping the Kentucky Derby.” predict.
Provocatively inspiring.
Excellent post and could not agree more. I believe that the derby is one of the few races where emotion comes into play more and for me, I bet with facts and emotion and lose like the rest of us. (haha), Great article and appreciate it.
I too like your post !!! If Einstein were a horseplayer he probably wouldn’t make it to betting window in time !!! (LOL)
As I am sure you have guessed if you have read any of my posts that I am a huge Forever Young fan. As Steve has said in his analysis, his thoro graph numbers of two 1s in his last two races have been extremely strong numbers. He is five for five while racing at five different tracks and has won races in both directions. He has Run at 1 mile 3/16 and has been strong in his impressive closings. He won the Saudi cup at 1 mile with impressive fleet of foot without changing leads to catch a pure fast sprinter when it looked like he had no chance. He is a horse who has a great heart and a great trainer. And if you read today’s article Bloodhorse, he is estimated to be in the top four of fastest closing 3 furlongs of any of the horses on the derby. One of the horses time is used at a mile and 16th, so it should be faster. And one of the horses has thoro graph times at 4 1/2 and higher. Post position for him is going to be somewhat important and I hope he gets somewhere from 8 to 15 with fierceness inside because he likes to run up on the first turn, keep dirt from being kicked back in his face, and rate about 4 through 7 and has proven in every race he can go 4-5 wide with no impact. He seems to prefer it out there so no dirt kick back. Though obviously not an ideal ride and with 20 horses, his trip will be critical like all the others. His coat looks spectacular and he seems to handle the track easily since his arrival. I read his first workout may be Sunday but his trainer has said he is not a great looking horse on workouts. Its his strong competitive heart that is his strength. As you can see. I’m not really objective because I have seen him run in the Saudi cup and Dubai derby and I am excited to see him run and see how he does. IMO from what I can see from film and closeups, he looks better and more muscular than he did in Riyahd and Dubai and as Lynda has commented , you gotta love those long legs. I have not been this excited about a horse since I saw California Chrome in his early stages and loved him for the derby. Should be a great race.
Not sure if you have seen him warm up at Churchill yet but Forever Young looks fantastic. Shinny coat and packs with muscle. Moving very well. I just cannot believe my eyes how well he is doing. I would think his journey may have taken a toll on him but nope. He just looks awesome.
I do love his running style. He’s fast enough to stalk or be mid pack. From there he can track the front and make his move without much traffic. Only concern is if he goes wide the whole way it may cost him because he is running against the bests.
He has one of the best closing kicks and he keeps digging hard at the end. Thats what he’s been showing so I’m expecting that form to continue.
I agree that going wide the whole race is not ideal but being up closer might give him an early start and if his heart and closing speed are what they appear, a very hard horse to pass especially if you come from somewhat far back and have to race through traffic. A speed horse who is quality might be the hardest to beat. A fierceness fla derby race might win if fast enough. Its a hard race to win wire to wire with that long stretch unless fractions are very slow which I do not see this year
It’s going to be a fun derby with Fierceness at the front, Forever Young near him and some really good closers in Sierra Leone, Catching Freedom and Honor Marie. These are the top contenders with different style of running.
Everyone knows Fierceness needs a good break for him to run his race. He is goin to be the target. If he does get the lead we shall see if the other guys will be able to motor him down.
I’m going to go against Fierceness in the derby. I do plan to include Fierceness in my tickets.
At the moment I really like Forever Young after watching him at Churchill.
Your analysis is the same as mine and to me makes for a very exciting stretch run. I think this year’s derby. from an entertainment value, is the best in quite a few years. The jockey for Forever Young, Mr. Sakai who has ridden him every race, is coming over to spend two weeks here with the horse which shows the seriousness of the connections. They say he will breeze formally two times before the race on a very structured schedule. I am guessing the breezes will be 49 or 50.
He has won from gates 2, 3, 6, 5 and 12.
Lynda, I believe he was saddle # 5 in Saudi but broke from post 9. In Dubai, I believe he was saddle # 3 but broke from post 11. In another of his 1 1/8 races, he was saddle 12 and broke from post 12. When he was saddle #3 in another race, he broke from gate 3 and hugged the rail or maybe 1-2 wide until the top of the stretch, which was long, and closed extremely strong and won impressively I am guessing against a weak field.
Bill S, I pulled the info off the Japanese database.
If it is wrong, then I take your word for it and will concede that possibly the information in their database is not correct.
Lynda, I just watched the races and saw the gates he broke from. I think the info may be wrong. I believe those were cloth numbers not the gate he broke from. No offense meant.
Bill S, no worries.
The database had the column header “gate”.
Terminology does vary from country to country.
Bill S, his groom said that when he arrived at Churchill Downs he was bursting with energy. Not fazed one bit by the travel which included the layover at O’ Hare to clear quarantine.
Something else I noticed about this colt is that he has that cat-like walk.
Saw a conformation photo of him from May 2023.
Beautifully balanced, good bone and has the shorter pasterns like what Secretariat had and they are not long and sloping as we see on most American Thoroughbreds today.
Trying not to get my expectations too high for this colt or any of them really.
Based on all the information that Steve has given us and what I have read other sites, I believe this race is going to come down to Fierceness, Forever Young, Sierra Leone and Honor Marie.
Thanks for the observations, Lynda. Because of you and Bill, my excitement for Forever Young is rising faster than a meteor in the sky. I just hope that all these good vibes don’t have an effect of driving the odds down. Lol
Thanks for the info from the groom. They truly know many times the real facts. I am sorry to say I am all in emotionally (haha) and hoping for a very safe and really exciting race. The derby is my favorite race and I have seen almost all the big races all over the world. Love and appreciate your comments.
Hi Bill. Your enthusiasm for Forever Young is contagious and I’m anxious to see his first work over the Churchill track. Not looking for speed necessarily, but more for his stride and fluid motion.
As for not liking dirt kick back, did this come from his trainer or jockey? If this is true, it couldn’t have affected him that much as he is undefeated. I would prefer to see him attending the pace and saving ground going into the first turn. Once, they hit the backstretch, then Sakai can move him out for a clear run when going around the last turn and into the stretch. The last thing I want to see is Forever Young racing on the outside for the entire 1 1/4. Losing ground around the first turn is not a formula for success, especially at that distance. That plan would also risk running out of gas.
I’m getting antsy…. 10 more days until the post position draw.
Yes I am excited and as mentioned, last big excitement was California Chrome to see and follow his early trajectory of what could be a great horse. BUT I may be very disappointed in the end. I do love the derby and to be excited and emotional about a horse to me is what makes horse racing so much fun. Yes it’s the handicapping and guessing and money aspect too but they are such incredible animals to watch and enjoy. It’s such a great experience with possible great memories. Losing can be crushing for sure but IF IF the horse wins, the experience for me can over shadow the loses…which regretfully have been many (Blame broke my heart by beating Zenyatta). The comment about dirt came from Mr. Yahagi his trainer in an interview in Riyadh. But I totally agree, running on outside in 4-6 path is NOT the best race plan but he has won from the inside. Also excited about post position draw. Mr. Sakai has ridden Forever Young in every race and between the excellent trainer Mr. Yahagi and him, I believe he will find the right spot. Hopefully. Racing luck can have the last word.
Ah yes, racing luck, the good kind for Forever Young please. All together now, let’s send good vibes to Forever Young. MMmmmmmmmm!!! We’ve got to believe in good karma between FY and his fans.
Forever Young hits the ground very hard as opposed to skipping over it.
He doesn’t display a great stride extension in the late stages of his races.
He is the only entrant that closes with interest in his races.
He has never repelled the challenge of an opponent closing from behind him.
He was fully extended to win the Saudi Derby in 1:36 plus. Avg 8F split for the KD 1:36 +
Forever Young will be working overtime to win the KD. That will deplete his energy resources and leave him vulnerable late.
But there is one major positive. The surface at CD is very accommodating to turf types. FY stride mechanics could change dramatically on the CD surface. If that occurs, he will be a very dangerous entrant.
Excellent post and appreciate your comments. I think there are comments/reasons in contrast to your statements but this is not an argument forum to go back and forth. Great insight and thought provoking. Thanks
You sir, are a true gentleman. Well stated, Bill.
This forum IS for civil arguments on all Derby topics.
Thanks for the speed figs Steve. I think it is helpful to somewhat quantify what we see visually in the races.
And just adding that some of the other derby ‘lists’ at other sites are so incredibly weak, that I have trouble even getting through them completely. Thankful for your depth in your rankings.
I appreciate it. Thank you!
Does anyone remember what Mage’s TG and Rag scores were leading up to Derby?
On TG Mage had run a 5 in the maiden win, then another 5 in the Fountain of Youth followed by a 3.5 in the Florida Derby.
Thank you Jim and John.
You can download the TG sheets for every Kentucky Derby from the late 1990’s to 2021 in the TG archive section. I’ve only been able to see the 2022 and 2023 Derby’s on the TG YouTube channel.
Go to the TG website they have an archives section.
GL.
A while ago Winston Wolfe posted a long list of interesting stats about past Derby winners, including this gem:
*In the past three derbies, the winner did not win either of the last two preps. From 2011 through 2019, all Derby winners won their final two preps.
This year, FIERCENESS fits the first category, while SIERRA LEONE and FOREVER YOUNG (and now ENCINO) fit the second.
*Since 2000, a quarter of the horses in the field who won their final prep by at least three lengths won the Derby.
This stat again favors FIERCENESS, the lone last-out winner by 3+ lengths in the field, especially if he goes off favorite.
Once again, the stats point toward the most likely options, but do not give us an obvious winner.
I at least will use all four of these horses in my (probably hypothetical) trifectas and superfectas.
I meant to say,
This year, OF STEVE’S TOP THREE, FIERCENESS fits the first category, while SIERRA LEONE and FOREVER YOUNG (and now ENCINO) fit the second.
Thanks, Ms B, for the reference. But I should emphasize the fact that those were simply a bunch of trivia that I found to be somewhat interesting. I can’t see how they can help with handicapping the derby. Well, maybe the Late Pace stat could be helpful. As to the second bit of trivia, the 3-length+ win, there was more to it than what you summarized. The record of Derby favorites that won their final prep by at least 3 lengths is better than average: 6 wins, 5 losses. But it may not be good enough to put down money on an over-bet favorite.
Good luck with your selections, and whatever else you do…ENJOY!
I’m banking on Society Man to make another step forward. His bloodline suggests that they get better and better with age. He reminds me a lot of MAGE , getting good at the right time. Sierra Leone to me checks all the boxes for the derby and I really like Just a touch. I still think one of these races Dornach’s light bulb will come on and when it does he will prove a lot of the naysayers wrong, just might not be the derby . I won’t give up on him. If Fierceness can get to the lead with no issues and probably could blow the field away. I am banking on that not happening , and when faced with adversity he folds like an Accordion so i will congratulate him if he wins but i am leaving him off my tickets. Thanks Steve for another great yr of the DERBY DOZEN, We appreciate all of your hard work.
Dornach is one of my selections.
If Fierceness can get to the lead with no issues and probably could blow the field away.
What’s the likelihood of a Fierceness blow out with an issue free trip?
Fierceness blew the field away by 6 1/2L in the BCJ. His best opponent emerged as Muth.
Muth won the AK Derby by 2L. His best opponent emerged as Just Steel who was making his 11th start and was a 7th by 10L last out finisher in the Rebel.
Fierceness blew the field away by 13L in the FL Derby, His best opponent emerged as Catalytic, a last out 2nd place finisher in a 6F AOC returning from 5 months between starts. The FL Derby was Catalytic’s 3rd career start, stakes and 2turn debut.
The likely KD field will contain only one entrant who was in any of Fierceness’ two blow out stakes wins i.e., Catalytic. The likely KD field will also likely contain an entrant that finished ahead of Fierceness i.e., Domestic Product, a forgotten horse.
Fierceness will likely be facing only previous opponents. The other likely 18 opponents will be new shooters, some of whom, would have likewise destroyed the FL Derby field, given the resume of the runner up.
The 4F & 6F splits for the Blue Brass was 46.48 & 1:10.83.(Drying out surface)
The 4F & 6F splits for the FL Derby was– 47.50 & 1:11.31 (Fast surface)
There is this prevailing notion that Fierceness will display superior speed if he experiences a clean break. How much faster is he over 6F than Just Steel and Track Phantom.?
Only in 4 of the last 20 KD was a 4F split of 47 plus recorded. Fierceness will have company on the headline should break well and it will not be a company of the cheap speed variety.
Fierceness is unlikely to win the KD in a blowout. The new cast of characters he will be facing is significantly more talented than he faced in his previous blow outs.
EDIT:
Fierceness will likely be facing only 2 previous opponents. The other likely 18 opponents will be new shooters, some of whom, would have likewise destroyed the FL Derby field, given the resume of the runner up.
Except Chad thru in a rabbit in the Bluegrass.
Thank you for the Thoro-graph numbers. I believe they are the most reliable figure. I due prefer the track Variant. I agree that the “fastest” horse is Fierceness, but with his consistency or lack of, and his expected low odds. I am looking elsewhere for my WPS bet. He most definitely needs to be in all exotics and multi race wagers though. I have been on Forever Young his entire career. I loved his Saudi race against a Top horse in Book Em Danno. He looked to have improved in the UAE. Pairing his numbers Justifies my faith.
Sierra Leone will run his race as he always does.
The Top 3 for sure.
I hope for a clean race and may the best horse win!
Update on Encino’s Thoro-Graph numbers. As expected: 13, 13, 10, 2 1/2. Like Epic Ride both made a huge leap from synthetic to dirt.
WOW, that’s an impressive leap.
Hopefully, the connections decide to run him in the Derby.
Thanks for posting that, Steve. I think Encino will be a player if he runs.
Possible Bounce, 8 pt jump up is huge..
Very possible coming back in 3 weeks.
Bounce factor…..also noticed he ran on dirt for the first time but suffered no kickback, so that’s coming …unless they send hard….
I don’t see a bounce unless the last race took a lot out of him (which we don’t know because for the most part there is no transparency in horse racing) or Cox lets up on him and everything he gained in that race will be lost. He has to keep him sharp. If we see a dull work from him that is not a good sign. I (IMO) he needs to run mid pack at the beginning of the race to have a chance in the Derby. With just 3 races under his belt I don’t think he has enough base under him to run on the front end. If they do try to run him near the front I think he will wilt when he gets to the stretch. BTW and word who is going to ride him?
Thanks Steve! The synthetic-dirt leap seems real – certainly for the likes of Animal Kingdom, and Rich Strike it was. I won’t be tossing Encino and I’ll also find some spots for Endlessly on some tickets.
For those that are interested, I read somewhere that they will be drawing post positions for both the Oaks and Derby the Saturday before the Derby. April 27th. Which is a change from previous years. No idea what time.
Awesome.
25th nfl draft
26th play golf
27th derby draw
All I need to see is some post positions and I will be ready to put some tickets together.
I need to remind myself that some horse that doesn’t figure will run up into the trifecta and/or superfecta. Domestic Product or Stronghold????
I’m still leaning towards Just a Touch or Sierra Leone with a small glance towards Catching Freedom(the numbers might not tell the whole story there).
Steve: I really appreciate how much work you put into this column. There is a point at which my eyes start to cross when analyzing figures, so I respect and admire your ability to study them in depth — and then write about it all in a cogent and stylish fashion!
One thing is clear, however: The top three horses in this year’s Derby (if all three start) are FIERCENESS, SIERRA LEONE, and FOREVER YOUNG. Your analysis of the TG figs confirms that. And yet I can’t help rooting for other horses, who may or may not run the race of their lives in the Kentucky Derby. I was so hopeful you were going to tell us who would win!
For sporting purposes, your analysis has inspired me to concoct one or more six-horse superfectas using the top three and select/hunch/flyer horses from the rest of the field. From past history, I know it’s likely at least one of the top three will have a bad trip for one reason or another. But which one?!!
I wish someone could tell us all that in advance.
Ms Blacktype, why would you want to miss out on all that disappointment which goes with the territory of being a racing aficionado? Ha ha
Davids, I like the thrill of seeing the horse I picked WIN, especially when it’s the Derby. I’ve been watching the Derby since I was a child. In 60 years of Derbies, I may have picked the winner seven times, if you count my recommending Monarchos at the last minute to my husband at a Derby party.
I hope you can fit the KD in around all the other big races happening around the world that day. Keep your insights on the promising three year olds in the U.K. and down under coming!
Ms Blacktype, you outmatch me by a few years, well done. Of the colts I wanted to win the Kentucky Derby they would probably be matched on one and a half hands. However, with predicting the winner I’ve been more successful but the passion is not the same.
I don’t particularly enjoy the Kentucky Derby because it’s a very unfair race in so many ways. Nonetheless, the prep races, especially with Steve’s hand/mind on the wheel, the trip is pure pleasure. This extra bit of work I’m doing for the Uni is annoying me no end but that’s life.
Don’t worry about me missing the races I’ll stay up all night if needs be. The 3rd leg of the Australian Triple Crown will be run this Saturday, the Champagne Stakes at Royal Randwick over a mile. Starting time 3 pm – AEST (Sydney).
No Storm Boy this time. Manaal, winner of the Sires’ Produce – 2nd leg, is the favorite. I’m going for the Too Darn Hot colt Broardsiding to win. Sydney is pouring rain again on Saturday which is a downer but there you have it. Enjoy!!
Very interesting and informative. Thanks, Mr. Haskin.
The Thoro-Graph numbers says exactly what the BSFs and all the other speed figures say about Dornoch. He has run nearly the same race the last 4 times. Hasn’t improved much from his Maiden-breaker way back in October. Visually, his Fountain of Youth win was very telling. While winning, he failed to get much separation from a few field fillers. No offense.
Hi Steve,
Dr No here……..
you know I have watched many of the replays and I just cant move myself off Just Steel.
You know w Lukas the horse will be super fit. Also unlike in years past he seemed to have a decent meet at Oaklawn.
Hope all is well w you and your family…..
Back to the Mango Tree…
I have no “quarrel” with that. He definitely is one of my longsot picks.
Just Steel will be plenty fit and will use him as a long shot
Is Domestic Product being dismissed because of unflattwring TG numbers?
He won a KD Prep whereas Just Steel, Society Man and Catalytic did not. In the Holy Bull and Tampa Bay Derby, the fractions were pedestrian. DP had no pace to run at but still closed rapidly.
Domestic Product has the distinction of winning over 9f as a 2YO, whilst recording a final time good enough to win 5 of the last 10 Remsen.
He appears to be more relaxed in his races since the blinkers have been removed. His stride mechanics and turnover rate makes him a very dangerous KD entrant flying under the radar. He could complete a Chad Brown exacta.
This is the problem I have with speed figures. There are pertinent details that they do not reveal.
No.
Domestic Product was never more than 3 lengths off the lead at any point in the TBD. Considering the pedestrian split times (TBD) he would be far, far back in a normally contested KD.
In the Holly Bull stakes run with similar pedestrian splits he was never more than 2 lengths off the lead. He went by tiring horses to finish second beaten by 2.
In the Remsen Stakes again he was no more than 2 lengths off the lead with realistic splits of 23.09, 46.97 and 1:11.56 and he finishes 7 plus lengths behind the winner.
I am not trying to talk you off this horse, he’s just not fast enough to compete with the better horses.
Do you understand what ‘this column is devoted solely to Thoro-Graph numbers means?” It has nothing to do with anything else. I’m glad you found yet another horse you like. I’m sure there will be a lot more. You obviously didnt read anying I wrote about Domestic Product in past columns.
Steve – another great analysis for the run for the roses. Question for you off the beaten path – why can’t Trakus be utilized at the Fairgrounds?? Is it the structure of the track itself or does FG refuse to accept that this is 2024?.
Thanks Doug. There is no more Trakus. Replaced by GPS.
Steve, Am I wrong or have you become much more of a “numbers guy” in recent years?
No more than before. I write about it because people use numbers and I feel Thoro-Graph is the most reliable. I go by my observations and old fashioned handicapping more than anything. Thoro-Graph is a major part of handicapping and if I felt people had no interest in it I would never mention it. With 14 weeks to fill I have to write as much as I can about diffeerent factors.
Got it, thanks.
I’m sure you still respect some nice dapples…
Steve I hope you are right about Honor Marie and Mystik Dan, I like them both, especially Honor Marie.
I’m guessing that Forever Young will be the biggest underlay at post time, and Resilience will be the biggest overlay.
Other than Fierceness procession in Florida Derby vs. an embarrassing field, the only Prep that was decent in the USA by any measure was Arkansas Derby. Take a Good Look at Just Steel mishap at top of the stretch!!!!
Karma Coming For Lukas On 150 Anniversary!!!!
That was a bobble no one has mentioned. More than the horse watch the jockey.
The Kentucky Derby – Churchill Downs –
A race that has often made brilliant entrants appear modest and modest entrants appear brilliant, if only on the first Saturday in May.
Distance 10F-
No likely entrant on the leaderboard has ever contested a race over distance.
Weight – 126lbs
Subject to correction only T O Password has toted the KD weight, which he did in his two career starts of 9F. Many will be carrying the weight for the first-time.
With many in the likely field possessing suspect stamina for the KD distance. If the distance doesn’t cause defeat, the weight over the distance certainly will.
Field Size –
In either a full field of 20 or 16 to 19. All US based entrants will be contesting a race for the first time with the aforementioned field sizes. The Japan based entrants are accustomed to large fields. T O password made his debut against 15 opponents
Attendance
The presence and thunderous sound of 100,000 in attendance at Churchill Downs will be new for all US based entrants. The Japan based entrants at the country’s bigger tracks would have experienced comparable crow size.
Racing Surface –
The dirt surface at Churchill Downs has proven to be favorable to entrants that have excelled on turf/synthetic. The uniqueness of the dirt surface at CD type surface can cause dramatic performance improvement.
I am not a fan of speed/performance figures as they are produced from known knowns. Can one effectively extrapolate future performances from said figures? Whilst there is the possibility they can be used as guide, the variables that a horses will encounter in their next star can either positively or negatively impact their performance.
The list of variables above are just a few from a longer list that can influence how horses perform. Speed figures are reflective and not futuristic. The known unknowns and the unknown, unknowns cannot effectively be factored into these. This limits their usefulness as a handicapping tool.
Hey Steve, thanks a bunch for this very interesting data as I’m sure I’ll be referring to it quite often the next few days. If you are free to share the trip notes as well, i.e., 3w4w, I would be very interested in how wide the Louisiana Derby horses went.
I can use the GPS charts to deduce ground loss everywhere but the Fair Grounds. By eye and chart reading, I’m guessing Track Phantom was 3w3w, Common Defense 4w4w, but I’m having trouble with Catching Freedom and Honor Marie. It’s a bit odd to see a dirt race run so far from the rail, as if the invisible dogs were up.
Anyway, I like to compare the last few runnings for each of the preps and the La Derby is a bit perplexing this year because it’s seen only 1w1w or 1w2w winners since going to the 1 3/16 mile distance and then this year they take the scenic route to the wire. : )
Never mind that post Steve, I found the head on replay and it looks like a normally run race that just ended up out in the middle of the track down the stretch. Anyway, now that I’ve remembered where to watch the head on, I can make out the paths pretty good. Glad I found it too, because I was more than a bit wrong headed on the running of this race.
Thanks anyway
Thanks Steve, love the speed angle you took for this posting. For me I have 3 questions left to answer. #1 Who’s going to drop out and I hope none do. #2 Who’s the fittest. # 3 Who’s on the blossom that 1st Saturday in May. You know a lot can happen in this long wait.
Hard to be fitter than Just Steel.
Steve,
Totally agree with your assessment of him. Lukas very high on him after his latest workout. Jockey just has to be very patient with him at the beginning with him at the start of the race and not get caught up in the pace. Would like to see him placed in the race either about 6 to 10 lengths off the pace at the very beginning of the race going into the first turn. Lukas just needs to keep him happy and on his toes coming into the race.
Steve, you’re like the baker who makes the perfect bagel. You make them good and chewy (weekly rankings to chew on) and all the nooks and crannies are filled in (with Thoro-Graph numbers this week). You consistently provide me with a great product to enjoy my morning coffee with. I’m deeply grateful for you.
Do you think that Forever Young can sustain his Thoro-Graph numbers for the third race in a row, especially after traveling so far? In other words, is he due to regress and bounce? Thank you.
LOL. You forgot the lox, cream cheese, and capers. Lets hrow in an egg and cheese on a croissant once in a while.
I think Forever Young might have had more of a chance to bounce if he had run a “1” only once. By doing it back to back suggests that is really him and how legitimate he really is. Of course you never know how another long trip and another country is going to affect him. But by running fast twice even if he does regress it shouldnt be a big one.
Hi Steve, I think he is very dangerous and may do much better than Sierra Leone.
I think I have heard/read that trainers don’t focus on the lead change as much in other countries, specifically in Japan. I watched the YouTube link with all of Forever Young’s races (was that you, Bill? Thanks!) He is scary good when he gets his lead change – it was like watching two different horses from Saudi to Dubai. I am taking Forever Young seriously, and I usually toss out the Japanese entries as novelties or lost causes.
I will never understand how domestic breeders dismissed Sunday Silence. Count me a fan of Halo horses… Resilience included!
thanks, he has met on condition that’s important in the Derby and that is his final 3/8th and final 1/8th. But because that race was not in the US, we still have some speculations.
Remember, he’s also won of left and right handed tracks.
Thanks again for that Steve, I don’t watch many foreign races.
Just to add:
Mage had also qualified in the these final figures.
Thanks, Steve, your take on Forever Young’s speed gives me one more box to check off.
p. s., I do have an egg and cheese croissant now and then. C’est si bon!
Dewey, put “Lune Croissanterie,” Fitzroy, on your bucket list it’s world reputation is well deserved. Mind you, get there early the line starts stretching down the street after 9 am.
Davids, as much as I would love to, I’m not about to fly to Melbourne to sample a “Lune Croissanterie” in Fitzroy. That would be one very expensive moon croissant, ha, ha!
Dewey, I could post you one but perhaps on opening the desired croissant may have lost its desirability. Ha ha
You could go on a Melbourne Cup sojourn and visit Lune, among other sites in Australia?
Believe it or not, a trip to the Melbourne Cup was once on my bucket list. Unfortunately, at this stage (on the north side of 80), with health and mobility issues, that dream will have to take its place on the would’ve, could’ve, should’ve list. Sigh!
Sad to read that Dewey. The Melbourne Cup is being televised live on: www dot 9now dot com dot au this year. It’s free to join so you might want to have a try joining. There may be barriers but you never know.
Visiting Moscow used to be on my bucket list but, alas, that will never happen now.
Love the bagel metaphor lol
Big fan here of Forever Young.
Watched a couple of videos the last 3 days including early this morning of him on the track at CD.
Keep in mind these are not works just gallops for exercise.
Do not think the trip from Meydan has bothered him one bit. He was given time to rest with just easy jogs after the Derby until he shipped last week. He seems very relaxed to me, moves nicely across the surface too, has a long stride…those long legs ( am I the only person who has noticed those long legs, LOL). Just my opinion of course but I think he will be competitive in the Derby, possibly win.
Steve I was just starting to figure out Beyers and follow them, now I am on a new learning curve with these numbers. Had to read it twice, LOL. Does give me something new to look at and consider.
With the scratches I have slightly adjusted my picks which I will post after watching some actual timed works next week.
This might sound crazy, but Honor Marie reminds me of Hot Rod Charlie. Cannot put my finger on it yet though. Looks like he is doing great on the CD track, really taking to it.
Been looking at Just Steel a little more closely and I listened to an interview with D Wayne Lucas about him.
Thank you for this new twist for ranking the colts.
Ron Turcotte said something interesting about Secretariat compared to Riva Ridge that I need to go back and read again, something about Secretariat’s withers and his balance.
I just got done watching the video of the horses at Churchill track. Forever Young looks fabulous. Shinny coat and fit. The guy is stacked with muscle. Didn’t know he was built like that. Boy he is a stud for sure, wow!!! I really like what I see.
Honor Marie is a goof ball. He seems happy and full of himself.
Thanks Steve, in providing the Thoro-Graph numbers for this year’s Kentucky Derby winners. This year is so unpredictable it’s hard to tell whether the patterns of the runners will follow their previous races positively or negatively.
I’m really looking forward to your future observations especially when the morning works show begins next Monday. Thanks again, for your excellent coverage prior to the Kentucky Derby.
Thanks David. It is unpredictable. That is why there are four price horses, I am leaning towards betting straight and in all exotics. two of them for sure I believe can be big overlays. at a price.
That’s what I’m thinking as well, Steve. If Fierceness gets a good post and manages to rocket out the gate Johnny Velasquez will sail home. However, if that scenario fails in execution the race is anyone’s guess. Good ol’ fashioned eye test at the works may be the best source of comfort.
I must admit the ‘unpredictability’ adds to the fun.
Exactly. I believe Fierceness has more ability than all the others put together, and if the good Fierceness shows up on Derby Day, it’s all over. But if we get the bad Fierceness, he could run last, and I don’t have any Plan B. I’ll probably wait until Derby Week to come up with a second choice,. But I’m hoping for the good Fierceness to blow them away.
Brad Cox stated after the running of the Louisiana Derby that the game plan for Catching Freedom went out the door at the start. ‘If’ Catching Freedom were to get a good start in the Kentucky Derby I would expect him to be up close early as opposed to what has happened in his last couple of races.
Will they be that adventurous in the Kentucky Derby? Mind you, Prat is an ace in the pocket which is comforting in a race like the Derby.
D. Wayne Steels Derby
Just Steel is made for a race like the derby. He’s won at Churchill. He’s coming out of the strongest prep race. And D. Wayne thinks he can take a quantum leap forward.
At 25-1, he’s the clear play for me, surrounded with the big 3 – Fierce, Sierra, Forever.
$100 Win – Steel
$100 Place – Steel
$5 Exacta Box – Steel with Big 3
$1 Exacta – Fierce, Sierra / Steel
$3 Trifecta – Big 3 / Big 3 / Steel
$250 total
I totally agree. But with him never running back to back fast numbers I only hope he can match that huge number in the Arkansas Derby. But I Loved his race and he is one tough horse.
Yes, there is that inconsistency flag for sure. But the way he ran in the Arkansas, showing solid early speed and still closing in 12.3. That looks like a springboard race to a bigger effort next out to me. Fingers crossed he’s turning a corner.
Btw, I’m already eyeing him for the Belmont as well. Looking to see if I can place a future wager on that.
I can’t toss from my Tri box …
I like how Just Steel ran, on The Arkansas Derby, but I don’t listen to Wayne, because he always says his horse is doing great….him and Brad Cox are two that I can’t trust, on that matter …they always say they cannot be doing better….
I agree, think it applies to all trainers. I do wish I listened to Jena Antonucci right before the Belmont though. She was asked something like, what do you think Arcangelo would say to you heading into the Belmont? Jena responded, “Get out of my way.”.
I love your post. I had no doubt that Arcangelo would win the Belmont. His pedigree shouted “get out of my way.” He paid well; I can’t wait to see his offspring on the track. I adopted a shih poo dog last October and named him Arcangelo. My little dog may be small, but he is fierce.
Hi Steve, thanks for those TG numbers, it will be of great help.
I would also be interested in the raw times of these horses in their prep race, especially the last 3/8th and last 1/8th. A few of those prep races do not have the GPS charts.
Many below talking about Rich Strike not qualifying on the TG numbers, but he did qualify on the last 3/8th and maybe also the last 1/8th of his prep race.
I think you may be correct on Catalytic. I have found that to happen in races when another horse blows the field away by many lengths.
Hi Steve
Thanks for providing those Thoro-Graph numbers. During the handicapping process, those numbers will certainly be of benefit to the handicapper and must be factored into that process.
The said, it certainly appears that Fierceness has everything it takes to win this year’s Derby. If Sierra Leone drops too far back, he’ll have to pass a lot of horses to be a factor in the late going. The same can be said for Catching Freedom. Just a Touch has stamped himself as an up-and-coming racehorse but lacks foundation, IMO.
Forever Young is the X-Factor in the Derby and will have to prove a Japanese horse is capable of winning the Derby which has yet to be done.
I’ll go with Resilience to win the 150th Kentucky Derby.
I’m looking forward to your final Derby Rankings.
Thanks for all you do, Steve.
Next week will be the finnal Rankings, and because the Derby is being drawn on Saturday I can have my final analysis earlier in the week if I wish. But I dont want to commit too early
Thanks for the reply, Steve
The longshot I’m looking at right now is Encino. His Equibase Speed Figures have increased in each succeeding race, (81,91,100,108). I’m looking forward to the Thoro-Graph number that he will be assigned for his Lexington win, and how that number compares with the Equibase figure of 108, for that race.
By Nyquist, out of a Bernardini mare, his pedigree reflects an excellent mix of speed, stamina and class, IMO. Having His Majesty and Ribot on his tail-female side is an added plus.
In recent years, homebred colts have made their mark in the Kentucky Derby, winning 10 out of the last 20 editions of the Derby. I’m sure that you’re aware that Encino is a Godolphin homebred.
Encino’s odds should be in the double digits at post time. I’ll include him in some of my exotic wagers.
I wrote about his Ribot connections. Love it. I’m not sure if they will run him back . Cox already has two heavy hitters and we’ll have to see what Godolphin says
Thanks for the reply, Steve
From my perspective, the more entries that Cox has, the more chances of winning the Derby. However, I wouldn’t be surprised if Encino’s connections skip the Derby and point him to the Preakness.
If Baffert/Zedan win their court appeal to get Muth in the Kdy, Encino will get bumped out.
Preakness a definate.
Steve didn’t touch on the hypothetical if Muth gets in. Where does he think this colt stacks up on the list.
IMO the connections didn’t skip the Blue Grass to run in the Lexington for the dough. You think Godolphin needs dough? They needed points and points is what they got. My take is they lean Derby if the horse is feeling good.
“They needed points and points is what they got”
Your ability to state the obvious is amazing.
Furthermore, no one mentioned that Encino’s connections skipped the Blue Grass to run in the Lexington for the dough.
Give it a rest Mr K.
Nice horse but to wheel back in 2 weeks and match that last race, i think is impossible.
Great stuff, Steve…thanks!
Honor Marie has so much untapped potential – I don’t think we’ve seen the best of him yet. Whether he’s good enough to win, we’ll see – but I think he’ll give a good account of himself in the Derby…and will be even better later in the year
Hope he races as a four year old.
With his pedigree? He’d better – and I’d love to see him on turf. I believe his dam is a half to a St. Leger winner …
Betsy, of the three big closers (Sierra Leone , Catching Freedom and Honor Marie ) I feel Sierra Leone is the fastest of the 3 followed by Catching Freedom and then Honor Marie. Honor Marie I felt had every chance and advantage to win the Louisiana Derby but didn’t. He got the jump on Catching Freedom, He was inside of him turning to the stretch and had a clear path to the finish line in front of him but Catching Freedom still caught and passed him. Can he win the Derby sure but it will require a perfect trip and the other 2 having trouble in the race. Both he and Catching Freedom have won at Churchill.
Betsy, that would Rule of Law, English St. Leger winner in 2004.
I’m rooting for Honor Marie. I think he is prime to run his best race yet.
The 3 horses that I love going into the derby are Honor Marie, Sierra Leone, and Forever Young. To me they have the it factor. Every time they step on the track they are going to give their all and 110%. They love to compete to the wire. They dig hard coming down the wire. Plus they will love the distance as well.
Looking at the Thoro-Graph archives, it seems that there have actually been five Derby winners this century that have had a number higher than 3 1/2 in the final prep. In addition to the two that Steve mentioned, Mage (15-1) had a 3 3/4, Mine That Bird (50-1) a 5 1/2, and Monarchos (10-1) a 3 3/4.
What this says to me is that the Derby can be won by a 3yo with a last-race number higher than 3 1/2, but he had better be a good price if you’re wagering. The first three likely favorites (Fierceness, Sierra Leone, and Forever Young) all have “qualifying” numbers. So if you’re going on T-G numbers and happen to like another runner with a 3 3/4 or higher, you have a shot at good odds.
You could say that “only two horses, Rich Strike (80-1), Mine That Bird (50-1), and Giacomo (50-1), have won the Derby coming off a Thoro-Graph number slower than a 3 3/4.”
Sorry….”only THREE horses…” aarrgghh
Yes, Winston, I was going over the Thoro-Graph Archives as well. There are quite a few runners who had magical ‘numbers/patterns’ prior to running in the Kentucky Derby only to have a horror number after the running of the race. Conversely, there are quite a few with the a total reversal after the running of the Kentucky Derby.
It reminds me of Gallop polling prior to, and after an election – they can give you the perfect result after the event from their data. But, prior to the Election Day, their data was telling them that candidate couldn’t win. Ha ha
Ha! I hope the speed figures are more accurate than political polling!
That should have read 3 horses.Typo on my part. Thanks, its fixed. Mage wasnt slower than 3 1/2
You’re most welcome, Steve. The T-G site’s archives contain the full sheets for all derbies and all runners back to 1997. I have no way of knowing if the numbers are “revised” a la BSFs. But these are what show from 2000 for Derby winners’ final preps higher than 3 1/2:
Monarchos 3 3/4
Giacomo 5 1/2
Mine That Bird 5 1/2
Rich Strike 9 3/4
Mage 3 3/4
It’s interesting to note that all five won the Derby after being at least 13 lengths behind at 4f.
Interesting
I believe all those races had a 1/4 mile split in the 22 second range.
1/2 mile split in 45 second range..
GL
All but the Mine That Bird race.
Thank you sooooo dang much Steve! I need a little clarity each year about this time, and I know where I’m gonna find it. You are the best my friend.
Thank you very much Kevin
Thanks for the analysis, as always Steve.
Glad to see Honor Marie well represented.
My Kentucky Derby rankings are:
1. Endlessly
2. Sierra Leone
3. Honor Marie
4. Dornoch
5. Stronghold
We shall see who fares the best.
Good luck.
Hey Pebbles!
Hi Steve, thank you for the best Derby analysis available anywhere – by far. I like Encino because of his Lexington win over The Wine Steward. Wine Steward is a top class racehorse. I don’t mind the 3 week turn-around, I prefer it actually. Derby winners routinely run as big or bigger race in the Preakness. I take from the 13-13-10-? That the thorough graph # for the Lexington is not yet available?
Oops ! I’ve always (an infrequent always) posted as Tom’s Kid – an homage to my dad.
Ah welcome back I missed you. I always wondered about the name. That is great!
Thank you Jerry. The Thoro-Graph number should be out by Wednesday and I will post in the comments and add it to the column. I tought Encino ran awesome and believe he would be tough in the Derby or Preakness.
Thanks Steve, I’ll try to be a more frequent poster! Bedtime now.
Encino could also run well in the Belmont, especially if it were 1 1/2 mile test every other year, with Bernardini as his dam sire.
Big raspberry on messing with the Belmont distance… again. I see them with their “reasons.” I know I am childish, and I don’t care. I’d rather the schedule of these races change than the distances. So PLLLT.
You’re not being childish. The distance is what makes the Belmont special. It may be true that NYRA didn’t have much choice, but what they are doing, in effect, is running the Travers twice.
Aside from my Belmont soapbox, I REALLY like Encino. I like the pedigree – I’ll take some extra Dixieland Band, and try not to wince about Fappiano since it’s Bernardini. I wasn’t expecting to think much of the Lexington as a prep, but I thought it was (visually) an impressive performance. I’m excited to see the TG when it is available.