Kentucky Derby Sprint Ban is “Pointless”
This past Saturday they ran the seven-furlong San Vicente Stakes, which attracted a pair of promising Bob Baffert horses. So what, you might ask, there no longer are Derby points awarded to sprint stakes. That omission in my opinion has been a huge mistake and has left a major void, taking away a tool that was once an important part of the Derby trail. ~ Steve Haskin
Kentucky Derby Sprint Ban is “Pointless”
By Steve Haskin
If the 2012 Kentucky Derby was historic in any way, it was the biggest knee-jerk decision ever made at the time by Churchill Downs; one that changed the entire complexion of the Run for the Roses.
In that race, a pure sprinter named Trinniberg, who was coming off wire-to-wire victories in the seven-furlong Swale and Bay Shore Stakes and had set the early pace in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprint before tiring badly, pushed the brilliant Bodemeister, coming off a 9 ½-length romp in the Arkansas Derby, through torrid fractions of :22 1/5, :45 1/5, and 1:09 4/5 before retreating to a 17th-place finish, beaten 31 lengths.
Bodemeister, trained by Churchill Downs’ favorite son at the time, Bob Baffert, who had gone 10 years without a Derby victory after winning three in six years, finally shook free from Trinniberg at the three-eighths pole and opened a huge lead in the stretch only to be caught late by I’ll Have Another.
Churchill Downs had seen enough. Even though this was a rare occurrence, they decided that same year to devise a points system to get into the Kentucky Derby replacing the graded earnings system, a move that had become necessary, as you will read later. But in adopting this new rule, in which they would choose a list of stakes they felt were worthy of points, they completely eliminated all sprint stakes.
This impulsive move was obviously to keep all sprinters out of the Derby and prevent a repeat of 2012, even though history had proven there was no basis for it and it would deprive trainers the opportunity to sharpen their horses in a sprint. After all, with horses now running so few times before the Derby, many using only two preps, why run in a race with no points?
Ignored by Churchill Downs was the fact that the fastest pace in the Derby (:22 1/5, :44 4/5, and 1:09 1/5) was by set in 2001 by Songandaprayer, who had won the Fountain of Youth Stakes and finished second in the Blue Grass Stakes. That pace, set by a Grade I stakes winner, enabled the late-running Monarchos to record the second fastest Derby ever run.
In 1985, Spend A Buck, coming off a romp in the 1 1/8-mile Garden State Stakes, had proven a horse could set a blistering pace in the Derby and still win, as he won off by 5 ¼ lengths after setting fractions of :45 4/5 and 1:09 3/5, running the third fastest Derby in history. He had started the year by finishing third in the seven-furlong Bay Shore Stakes even though he had already won or placed in four stakes at a mile or longer as a 2-year-old.
Sprinters had no bearing on either of these two races. As for Churchill’s decision to ban all sprints from their point system, it didn’t take long for history to prove their actions were hasty. The very next year, in 2013, Palace Malice, coming off a neck defeat in the Blue Grass Stakes, set suicidal fractions of :22 2/5, :45 1/5, and 1:09 4/5 in the Derby, finishing 12th. And he hardly was a sprinter, coming back in five weeks to win the mile and a half Belmont Stakes by 3 ¼ lengths.
Even as recent as 2023, we had Louisiana Derby winner Kingsbarns and Blue Grass Stakes runner-up Verifying battle on the lead in :22 1/5, :45 3/5, and 1:10 flat before fading to the back of the pack.
So what has Churchill Downs proven by eliminating sprint races? We still get blazing fractions, but they are now set by proven distance horses who would rather not be on the lead. But because of the one time we had a pure sprinter possibly cost a Bob Baffert-trained budding superstar a Derby victory, Churchill Downs has wiped out a key strategy of getting horses to the Derby fit and sharp that was used for decades by most of the all-time great trainers and horses. The belief was that it was important to get a horse sharp sprinting before running in two-turn Derby preps.
This is not a criticism of the points system, only one aspect of it. The graded earnings system had developed flaws, leaving Churchill Downs in an uncomfortable position with several lesser quality horses getting in, and they were trying to eliminate that. One of their main problems with graded earnings was the influence of casino gaming at racetracks. The casino money would allow their tracks to increase the earnings of mediocre or nondescript stakes, such as the Delta Jackpot at Delta Downs in Louisiana, which was increased to $1 million by Boyd Gaming, which owned the track, to assure its winner a berth in the Derby.
Churchill needed to step in and take control of who gets into the starting gate on the first Saturday in May. The point system has definitely helped, but eliminating sprint stakes was a move in my opinion made out of desperation because of a single incident and took away an aspect of Derby training that had been historically successful.
As a new generation of younger trainers rose to prominence they shied away from sprints, focusing more on going straight to two-turn races off maiden victories. But some veteran trainers like Lynn Whiting were still old school and Whiting demonstrated that old school philosophy in 1992 when he dropped Lil E. Tee back into a six-furlong sprint off four stakes at a mile or longer to kick off his 3-year-old campaign. Lil E. Tee would go on to win the Kentucky Derby at odds of 16-1.
That was the way it was done for many years and Churchill Downs could easily have encouraged Derby trainers to at least consider sprints. Instead, they went in the other direction and made all sprints totally meaningless on the Derby trail. And by doing all this the year of Trinniberg and Bodemeister you have to wonder how much thought went into that decision.
Could it be we are now dulling our horses with nothing but a series of two-turn races and not having what was once considered important speed sharpeners? Just food for thought.
With the exception of Authentic, who won the Derby in September due to the Covid outbreak, the last horse to break 2:01 in the Derby was Monarchos 23 years ago. Since then we have had two Triple Crown winners – American Pharoah, who won the Derby in 2:03, and Justify, who went in 2:04 1/5. Last year’s exciting Derby, with the first three finishers noses apart, was run in 2:03 1/5. We’re talking four and five seconds slower than Secretariat’s record set more than half a century ago.
We also have to acknowledge the fact that eight of the last nine Kentucky Derby winners have not won a race after the Derby? Again, I am excluding Authentic, who won the Derby in September. But that is for another discussion.
By eliminating sprint stakes, the entire road to the Derby has been drastically altered. Looking back, we used to have sprints on the Derby trail such as the seven-furlong Bay Shore at Aqueduct, the six-furlong Hibiscus and seven-furlong Bahamas at Hialeah, the seven-furlong Hutcheson and more recently the seven-furlong Swale at Gulfstream, and the seven-furlong San Vicente at Santa Anita. Even Churchill Downs scheduled a late seven-furlong Derby prep, the Stepping Stone Purse, the Saturday before the Derby.
So just how successful were these sprints in producing Kentucky Derby winners, as well as Preakness and Belmont winners, and even great champions?
Rather than break each race down, let’s just say that the winners of the aforementioned sprint stakes who went on to win the Kentucky Derby are Secretariat, Spectacular Bid, Riva Ridge, Swaps, Majestic Prince, Swale, Silver Charm, Bold Forbes, Lucky Debonair, Nyquist, Hill Gail, Forward Pass, and Cannonade. Of these, only one horse, Nyquist, ran in this century, and only Silver Charm ran in the 1990s. Califormia Chrome in 2014 used a seven-furlong stakes for Cal-breds, which he won by 6 1/4 lengths in 1:22 flat, to launch his Derby-winning campaign,
Horses who were beaten in those sprint stakes and won the Derby include Carry Back and Spend A Buck. Horses who won them and placed in the Derby include Damascus, Gallant Man, Sword Dancer, Easy Goer, Never Bend, Chief’s Crown, and Jim French. As a side note, Forty Niner finished second in the Hutcheson Stakes and won the seven-furlong Lafayette Stakes at Keeneland before finishing second by a neck in the Kentucky Derby.
Horses who won one of those sprints and went on to win the Preakness and/or Belmont Stakes include Secretariat, Riva Ridge, Bold Ruler, Gallant Man, Damascus, Sword Dancer, Easy Goer, Spectacular Bid, Majestic Prince, Swale, Tom Rolfe, Silver Charm, Bold Forbes, Hail to All, and Bally Ache.
Just as a point of interest, horses who won those sprint stakes and would have been overwhelming favorites in the Kentucky Derby had they not been injured include Graustark, Hoist the Flag, and Sir Gaylord.
Just seeing those names gives you an idea how important those sprints were and what an integral part of the Derby trail they were.
And we’re not even going back to the 1940s when many of those sprint stakes didn’t exist and a number of horses such as Citation, Whirlaway, Assault, and Coaltown used allowance sprints or races like the Experimental Free Handicap. Before stretching out to 1 1/8 miles in the Blue Grass Stakes, Whirlaway opened his 3-year-old campaign with five consecutive sprints from 5 ½ to seven furlongs – four in allowance races and one in an overnight handicap.
And speaking of allowance sprints, they were used for the 3-year-old debuts of Kentucky Derby winners Seattle Slew, Affirmed, Sunday Silence, Northern Dancer, and Genuine Risk, just to name a few.
In summation, horses who used one of the above sprint stakes as a Kentucky Derby prep went on to win 32 classics. And the vast majority of them, unlike 3-year-olds today, remained sound and excelled at 4. And of the horses who ran in one of the aforementioned sprint stakes and went on to win a classic, 13 are in the Hall of Fame.
So, the bottom line is, when it came to the Kentucky Derby, sprints were one of the main aspects of prepping a horse and were used throughout history by the sport’s greatest trainers. Today they have no significance at all. And all because one sprinter named Trinniberg was foolishly put in the Derby and may have had an effect on the outcome.
Finally, only one trainer since the point system was implemented has been bold enough to start a 2-year-old champion and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner off as a 3-year-old in the San Vicente Stakes, giving up valuable points and relying solely on the Florida Derby to make it into the Kentucky Derby. That was Doug O’Neill with Nyquist. How did that work out? All he did was run the second-fastest Derby in the last 21 years. And the runner-up in the San Vicente was Exaggerator, who finished second in the Derby.
On Saturday, Bob Baffert ran his much-hyped $3.2 million maiiden winner Barnes in the San Vicente Stakes and the son of Into Mischief crushed a strong field, including an imprssive stakes winner, by 5 1/2 lengths to become one of the early favorites for the Kentucky Derby. Until he races again, likely some time in February, he will still have zero points.
So is there a solution to this? With Churchill eliminating sprint stakes several tracks either don’t even bother to card sprints for 3-year-olds or they have a six-furlong race thrown somewhere on the schedule. We do have the Swale and Hutcheson at Gulfstream, the San Vicente at Santa Anita, the Jimmy Winkfield at Aqueduct, the Pasco at Tampa Bay, the Turfway Prevue at Turfway Park, and a newer stakes called the Renaissance at Oaklawn, which used to run the six-furlong Mountain Valley Stakes, won by Preakness and Belmont winner Afleet Alex.
So what if Churchill Downs added these sprint stakes to the 20 – 10 – 6 — 4 — 2 category, but with the points being conditional? A horse will earn points for those races under the condition he also earns first, second, or third-place points in a 50 or 100-point race, assuring he is far more than a pure sprinter. Perhaps some tracks will start carding sprint stakes that are strategically placed on their schedule and trainers will be more inclined to run their Derby hopefuls in those sprints if they are confident in their horse and feel a good sharpener is what they need before stretching out, or even back out, to two turns, just as Doug O’Neill felt with Nyquist. If they fail to earn points in those longer races and don’t look to be Derby material they will not be awarded the points they earned in the sprint.
Think about it, Churchill, you have nothing to lose, and you might even get a Derby winner who can break 2:01.
Racing historian, author, and award-winning retired journalist for the Daily Racing Form and The Blood-Horse, Steve Haskin was inducted into the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame’s Media Roll of Honor in 2016. Known for his racing knowledge and insightful prose, he has been an exclusive contributor to Secretariat.com since 2020.
Usually, I don’t follow the fillies on the Kentucky Oaks trail, but one of Brad Cox’s fillies has captured my attention. Chasten, by Into Mischief, out of Lockdown, by First Defense looked very impressive in her debut race at Churchill. Coming from off the pace, in a 7 furlong $120K MSW race, she finished in 1:23.26, drawing off by 1 1/2 lengths.
Her dam, Lockdown just happens to be the dam of Idiomatic, who has won 12 out of 17 races, with career earnings close to $4 million.
Chasten is entered in the Silverbulletday Stakes, at the Fair Grounds on Saturday, Jan. 18th. She listed as the 3rd favorite on the morning line at 4-1. I like her chances in the race and will be keeping an eye on her moving forward on the Kentucky Oaks trail.
For what it’s worth, I saw that Rodriguez got a 101 Beyer for his MSW win at a mile on the same card (1/4, Santa Anita) as Barnes in the San Vicente. Barnes got a 94.
Anybody seen the Equibase figures for those two races? It would be interesting to compare them.
Hi Ms Blacktype
Rodriguez received an Equibase Speed Figure of 96, which seems relatively low vs a Beyer of 101. I would think the speed figures in reverse would be more realistic.
At any rate, Rodriguez is certainly a colt to keep an eye on moving forward.
Lecomte Stakes G3 -1¹⁶- Fairgrounds Race 12
1)Innovator 10/1
2)Maximum Promise 10/1
3)Admiral Dennis 8/1
4)Magnitude 6/1
5)Optical 20/1
6)Golden Afternoon 20/1
7)Calling Card 12/1
8)Tough Catch 10/1
9)Dapper Moon 12/1
10)Mobetterthangood 20/1
11)Disco Time 9/2
12)Jolly Samurai 20/1
13)Built 3/1
14)Seattle Road 20/1
Hey kmi
I was somewhat surprised to see Optical open at 20-1. From my perspective, he’s a legitimate contender in the Lecomte and a must include in the superfecta.
Built and Disco Time are the deserving favorites at 3-1 and 9/2 respectively.
Other colts that deserve consideration in a superfecta wager are as follows.
Maximus Promise (10-1)
Admiral Dennis (8-1)
Magnitude (6-1)
Optical (20-1)
Tough Catch (12-1)
Dapper Moon (12-1)
I’ll key the two favorites (Built & Disco Time) on top, in the first two slots, with the above six underneath in the 3rd and 4th slots.
That is: 11,13/ 11,13/ 2,3,4,5,8,9/ 2,3,4,5,8,9
Cost: $60.00
Good luck with your pick, kmi.
Bill, Optical was a Smarty Jones Stakes entrant at 12/1, then became a stakes scratch. I think now that he has entered a higher level stakes, that being the Lecomte G3 reflects higher odds in this much bigger field. Heck, try a bite of the 20/1 apple, just remember the difference in taste of the red vs. green. lol
You make an excellent point on Optical’s odds in the Lecomte Stakes.
However, I remain convinced that he’s a legitimate contender, at least for consideration in a superfecta wager.
Good luck, kmi.
Goodluck to you also
In Lecomte Stakes I have a sentimental favorite in this race and that is Maximum Promises. He is sired by Maximum Security a personal favorite. Not sure how he will fair against these but he broke his maiden nicely. Interesting that McPeek has two horses in this race and his goto jockey, Hernandes, chose him over the other. I hope he runs well.
Perhaps John will have a couple on Derby trail.
Aside from the usual suspects (Disco Time/Built/Admiral Dennis) in the upcoming Lecomte Stakes, I’m looking forward to see how Innovator (sire Authentic) handles his 1st attempt at routing. He’s been well supported in sprints and has plenty of speed. Then there’s Dapper Moon who had 3 nondescript routes before winning a 6 panel allowance race. Sometimes a change of venue is all a colt needs. Interesting set of competitors.
Speaking of three year olds..Santa Anita was a buzz with workers this weekend—the work which caught my attention was of a big colt–three years of age named Charlie’s to Blame—I think they are running him on turf, but you never know….He’s by Blame/Madaglia d’Oro, and looks pretty large—I was impressed!….a $95K Keeneland yearling…he went for $400K as a two year old, the ticket was signed by Dennis O’Neill—trainer is Peter Eurton, if they don’t head onto the Derby Trail–and stick to turf—I’ll be looking for him, and a possible “cashecktomy”!..
Joylyn Rigione and fellow stewards Reese Howard and Brook Hawkins, are considering penalizing Irad Ortiz Jr. for his aggressive/careless ride aboard Owen Almighty in the Pasco Stakes this past Saturday. During the late stretch run, he came over on Rookie Card, causing Junior Alvarado to take up sharply. A suspension seems appropriate.
Stand by for that decision on Wednesday.
On a side note, word has it that Journalism will skip the Robert B. Lewis (2-1) and instead point to the San Felipe Stakes on March 1st.
Bill, regarding Journalism’s team to wait for the San Felipe Stakes is a vote of confidence in him and his abilities. . The San Felipe is a 1-¹⁶ race offering 50 points to the winner while the R.B. Lewis is a 1 mile race offering 20 points to the winner.
Barring any unforseen obstacles, he would get 2 starts in preparation for the Derby. I hope we get to see ALL the BIG Gun Slingers coming out the gate on May 3rd.
I’m not sure if Journalism is completely fit, which may have caused the delay in his race schedule. He hasn’t recorded an official work since winning the Los Alamitos Futurity on 12-14. Something is not quite right with Journalism, IMO.
It’s a possibility, but I haven’t read anything about a setback except Chancer McPatrick who is healing from a minor surgery. So back to the ‘wait n see’ game.
Well Journalism had spiked a little fever after his Los Al stakes race victory. He will begin workouts on Jan 18/19 per M. McCarthy his trainer.
I think the infraction occured around the half mile pole…(before the turn)…Rookie Card practically had to stop—not good..
That’s good to know, Bill, That was an egregious foul. Both Rookie Card (who was running well at the time) and Owen Almighty could have gone down, taking other horses with them. I just watched the recording today, and I was shocked.
Inspired by Bill Dawson’s diligence in keeping a list of his best Derby hopefuls I am keeping two lists to track their movement in the trail.
My first list ranks the 2-year-olds with Stakes wins LAST year and the second dozen includes the prospects without Stakes experience but displaying flashy raw talent.
Stakes winners
Citizen Bull
East Avenue
Sovereignty
Journalism
Built
First Resort
Poster
Bullard
Chancer McPatrick
Coal Battle
Gaming
Rated by Merit
Getaway Car
Stakes Placed
Madaket Road
Sandman
Aviator Gui
Tiztastic
Ferocious
Tux
Notable Sophomores with no Stakes experience (LAST YEAR):
Patch Adams
Barnes
Romanesque
Rodriguez
Disco Time
Cyclone State (IA)
Guns Loaded
Grayscale
Tappan Street
American Promise
Sand Devil (NY)
Publisher
Heart of Honor not on because he’s in Dubai?
Hi Betsy… For Dubai and Japan based horses I don’t have some additional information (i.e. workouts, schedule, health reports, etc.) we will have to wait for the UAE Derby to rank them with the American based horses.
Heart of Honor is a top prospect in Dubai and the way he performs in the UAE Derby will shed light on his chances in America…
Nelson, that’s fair …
I can’t wait to see how he does in the stakes in February – Al (I can’t spell it, lol)
It’s such a fun time of year!
Hi Nelson
You are too kind to mention me as the source of your inspiration. Your idea to post separate lists was spot on. Not to be picky, but Jonathan’s Way was not mentioned as a 2yr. old stakes winner. He won the Iroquois Stakes back in September, going a mile in 1:36.08. He failed to have any impact in the BC Juvenile but placed 2nd behind First Resort in the Kentucky Jockey Club on 11-30. Today, he breezed 4 furlongs in 49.00 for trainer Philip Bauer, at the Fair Grounds.
I don’t have Jonathan’s way on my top 15 list, but he’s a colt that could improve moving forward on the Derby trail.
I have Patch Adams very high on my prospect list and looking forward to his next start.
Good luck, Nelson. I always take note of your very informative comments.
Yes Bill… Jonathan’s Way was in my top 15 … I did not move it to top 12 just because I had not registered his last two workouts at Fair Grounds since October last year… The Iroquois winner is getting ready to rebound from his dissapointing 7th in the BC Juvenile…
Donut God and Smoken Wicked are also in the watch list as Stakes winner/placed last year.
From now on it becomes easier to update our rankings with any exciting new comers and with the shuffling from the coming Stakes…
Yes indeed, things are getting interesting on the 2025 Derby trail.
How does a 3YO gain the status of ‘Beast’?
When Barnes was pulling away in the stretch of the San Vicente. The race caller uttered “Barnes is a beast”
What was on display was nothing beastly but rather the best entrant in the field on the day wining by a wide margin. This occurs quite regularly.
On November 17, 2024, Calling Card left the gate in an 8F MSW. He almost fell upon exiting the gate and displayed great athleticism to stay on his feet. The incident left him trailing the leader by 9L.
At some point he seemed to transition to overdrive and started passing opponents as if they were tied to poles. He emerged a geared down winner by 17 1 /4L. From bad break, trailing by 9 3/4L to a 17 1/4L winner.
Which of the two performances above was truly beastly?
If Calling Card was trained by either TP or BB. Would he have been a buzz horse after such a jaw dropping performance?
On November 17, 2024 Calling Card…was otherworldly. However, on December 13, 2024 he joined the rest of the mortals and lost by 7 lengths.
There are many ways to evaluate the performances of young horses. Beyer, Brisnnet Equibase and Sheet numbers often tell the tale of the performances. But do these numbers account for the challenges that a horse overcomes en-route to victory?
Poster was assigned an Equibase figure of 97 for his Remsen win. This colt is hardly mentioned as a likely KD winner despite its undefeated status that include 3 starts 8F and longer.
The Godolphin colt won its first two starts handily whilst forwardly placed. In the Remsen Poster proved the quality thoroughbred he is by overcoming the following:
Switch from Turf/All Weather to dirt
Taking kick back for the first time in a race
Distance of 9F
New racing venue
Serious late challenge from an opponent
Trailing far behind the leader
How many of the above are factored into the colt’s Equibase figure of 97? I content very few. The Remsen for the colt involved a lot of fists, many of which would have kept lesser thoroughbreds out of the winners’ enclosure.
Barnes is the buzz horse. What challenges did this colt have to overcome enroute to his 2 career wins?
Speaking of Grande, the official results time of the 1 mile race was 137.4 with fractions of (23.3) (46.0) (111.1) (124.1) (137.4) as per Equibase, perhaps reflecting the 77 speed figure.
You are right kmi… the split times and final time I posted below for Grande were wrong…
the exact sectionals and final time are:
23.67 46.14 1:11.21 1:24.29 and 1:37.89.
Apologies for the lapsus…
oh no problem…. I know that scoundrel ‘Lapses’ too! He gets around like his buddy Dollar Bill.
Grande (Curlin-Journey Home by War Front) was a good debut winner at Gulfstream today. At first I was not overly impressed with his 1:36 4/5 for the mile; but after seeing his split times (22.3, 45, 1:10 actually way above average) and with older horses logging 1:37 4/5 for the (sectional) mile in the 1 1/16-mile of the Sunshine Classic Stakes, I tend to think it was a powerful performance. I liked the way Grande withstood the relentless pressure of Camp Hale (who boasted speed ratings of 93 and 94 for his last race) and then took off in the last furlong. BTW I strongly believe the Equibase speed figure assigned to Grande (77) is out of whack…!
It is reassuring to see A.P. Indy and Pleasant Colony in Grande’s female family… Pleasant Colony is a sure source of stamina who appears in the female side of Derby winners I’Ll Have Another, Nyquist and Mystik Dan…
Interesting note is that Cant Stop Munning and Shogun who finished 2nd and 3rd respectively (2 full seconds) behind the flying Patch Adams, were beaten by 13 and 22 lengths by Grande today.
Looks like Mike Repole might have an eligilble Derby horse in Grande (meaning big in Spanish). The flamboyant owner counted on Mentee as his chief 2-year-old after a record setting debut sprinting but seems like the full brother of champion Fierceness is now pointing to turf races…? Repole also has another prospect son of Authentic named Acknowledge (LA) who broke his maiden by 9 lengths at Fair Grounds under the care of trainer Joe Sharp.
Grande is another horse with good potential despite not having run as a 2-year-old. Grande is the best prospect so far for Todd Pletcher as the Hall of Fame trainer is not showing the several early Derby hopefuls like he used to have in previous years.
River Thames (6F at Gulfstream) and Prince Valiant (6F at Aqueduct) were two nice winners for Pletcher today.
In principle the two New York bred colts don’t seem to be Classic material but particularly River Thames (who defeated the over-hyped Vanderbilt with EqSF of 105 ! ) could be one qualifying for the Derby thanks to Pletcher’s mastery to do so…
Anyway, there you have another good looking (and very fast) son of Curlin (joining Getaway Car and Journalism) to consider for your virtual stable …
I liked hearing Mentee mentioned. I’m a fan of his because he is Fierceness’ brother and because I have really liked half of his races–as I did with Fierceness at this point. I haven’t heard anything about him lately, but I wondered last year if Pletcher was moving him to turf for the Breeders Cup because he didn’t think Mentee was ready to take on the best two-year-olds, who would all be in the dirt race. If that was the case, maybe he will move back to dirt at least for the winter and spring. It’s hard for me to imagine Repole ruling anybody out of the Triple Crown at this point, even if he seems to have better prospects. He’s not going to forget Uncle Mo and Forte.
Rich Strike has arrived at his new digs in Pennsylvania. He looks great. Wishing him the best.
Best thing about this time of year are the new foal photos.
Continued prayers for the desperate and tragic situations in California and Western North Carolina.
It a heavy crushing feeling witnessing how the beauty of the forest becomes a dreadful inferno. God help the brave firefighters contain the biggest fires still raging at Palisades and Eaton.
Last summer a picturesque town of Jasper here in Alberta was decimated by a horrendous wildfire … more than 50% of the town was destroyed by the flames. Debris is still being cleared and more than 2000 residents remain under the risk of not finding a place to live…
I hope California recovers from this calamity rather quickly …
RE: Lecomte Stakes, Saturday, Jan. 18th at the Fair Grounds (R12)
A full field of 14 three olds are entered in referenced race. The two colts that I like, Disco Time and Built didn’t draw well, with Disco Time in p/p 11, and Built in p/p 13.
1) Innovator
2) Maximum Promise
3)Admiral Dennis
4) Magnitude
5) Optical
6) Golden Afternoon
7) Calling Card
8) Tough Catch
9) Dapper Moon
10) Mobetterthangood
11) Disco Time
12) Jolly Samuri
13) Built
14) Seattle Road
Despite their poor draw, Disco Time and Built appear to be the colts to beat.
Your take on the likely winner is absolutely correct.
Calling Card made move in his maiden breaker from the back of the field that is reminiscent of the one made by Monarchos in the 2001 FL Derby. Any horse that can trail 9 3/4L behind the leader and emerge the winner by 17 1/4L, such a horse has to be considered way above average. Some might say a monster.
He disappointed in his subsequent AOC. However, if he can reproduce his maiden breaking performance in the Lecomte, the other might just be running for2nd.
I like Optical, at a big number!.
Hey Matthew W
Optical is my 3rd choice in the Lecomte, his dam side is inundated with class and stamina influence, IMO. His trainer, Keith Desormeaux does well with his horses at the Fair Grounds. I believe Optical could surprise at a good price.
Good luck Matthew W.
Hey thanks Bill! Good to know…..I like his work pattern, and like you said Desormeaux always has a three year old, always seems to get them at a bargain—horse draws a good post—they scratched out of an Oaklawn race, stayed home for this–we’ve seen Mr D do this before!..
Irad Ortiz Jr.’s aggressive riding style was on full display in the Pasco Stakes aboard Owen Almighty. After leading throughout the race, he came in on Rookie Card causing Junior Alvarado to take up sharply. The stewards quickly disqualified Owen Almighty from 1st to 5th. Needless to say, Owen Almighty’s connections are probably not thrilled with the outcome.
Only have disdain for him.
Yesterday Irad had the day of days—dq’d by knocking a horse into the rail….six mounts—all heavy favorites–5 out of the money and his 2nd place horse was even money and he chose to wait for an inside hole that never appeared—a lack of confidence, in a one turn race, even the great ones have bad days..
He places far to many horses and riders at risk with his act.
You’ll get no argument from me—Irad has tremendous skills–as did Cordero and PVal—two jockeys that would ride their horse plus half the others, in a race! I watched that incident several times, I really don’t think Irad was doing anything dirty, I think the guy’s head was somewhere else, his other five rides were abysmal—he looked to his right and just moved into the horse on his left, just a bonehead move—very unlike his usual rides—to me it seemed more absent-minded, than on purpose..
Hey Bill … I think you are right about the owners not being happy with the results of that race. Anyway, congrats on Cockeyed hitting the board at a nice price and Naughty Rascal being promoted. Looking forward to the Lecomte Stakes with a FULL field of 14!!!
The Cal Cup Derby will be run probably next week, there’s a longshot that has a big shot in there named Drop Um…..by a horse that in 2015 had promise, named Far From Over—he stood three years in California for $2500—-owner said he was the best put together horse he ever had, and he had Violence….Far From Over passed, from a seizure, in 2021 age nine….
I remember Far From Over (love that name). He was an exciting horse to watch. Hope Drop Um does well.
I plan on dropping a big wager on Drop Um….
Hi Matthew – First off, hoping all is well for you with those wildfires raging in CA. Also, I’m becoming a bit concerned that Journalism hasn’t gotten back to the worktab since his win 4 weeks ago in the Los Al Futurity. I know the connections said he was getting a mini break until he preps for the R.Lewis, but I was hoping that he would have worked today at SA. Also, I’m wondering if the R.Lewis might be pushed up a week to 2-8 because of the wildfires. This seems this would benefit Journalism who could get an extra workout whenever he does return to the tab.
Joe I’ve heard nothing….will post when I do….Journalism is a big boy! Huge frame….a true Derby horse that will stay like a mother-in-law!..
Hi Matthew – DRF is reporting that Journalism spiked a fever after his Los Al Win and has fully recovered. His trainer said he is doing fine and will work either JAN 18 or JAN 19. He will miss the R.Lewis but likely could target the 50 Point to the winner S.Felipe on 3-1 at SA. Glad to hear Journalism is ok, his no works had me worried.
The Bob Brigade has ME worried!..
I read that Mario Gutierrez lost his home in the southern CA fires, and several trainers have had to evacuate from their homes. What an awful situation.
arlington fan I read the Bob Baffert had to evacuate his Mother from her nursing home as it was being threatened by one of the wildfires.
Wow. How scary for her and the other residents. Hope they’re doing okay.
The 6 fur Pasco—has points?….
Nope, but the Pasco is considered a key tune up race for the Sam Davis Stakes which offers 20 Derby points to the winner.
BTW, the Pasco Stakes is 7 furlongs, not 6.
Steve,
Thank you for clearing up the reasoning for “No Points” on the Grade 2 race San Vicente and others like the Swale. I think your solution on giving “Conditional” points is a great suggestion and I hope CDI will give it some thought as it may help with swelling the entrants into races like these.
As always keep up the good work. Anxious to see your first posting of the derby dozen.
Betsy, Herat of Honor wins in style. ❤️❤️❤️
Time to sleep 💤
Woo hoo!
Just watched – see my reply to Nelson
Funny thing is, I was expecting a heart GIF from my friend, but instead he used a Medal of Honor one!
Looks like the stakes on 2/21 will be next – makes sense
🎖️🎖️🎖️❤️❤️❤️❤️
Betsy, the best thing I felt that came out of the race is that Heart of Honor wants to win. Many inexperienced runners in Heart of Honor’s situation would have packed it in and just placed.
Onward and upward.
I agree, David! For an inexperienced runner, he handled himself beautifully
Is there a way to obtain the fractions ?
Thanks!
Betsy, rewatch the race on YouTube- Dubai Racing Carnival – Live -January 10, 2025.
From about 1:15 in on the video you can watch the build up, race and discussion how Heart of Honor run. I think they showed all the times during the race and afterwards.
Am rushing out the door now, 94 today. I spent 2 hours earlier today watering the garden and pots, around 7 am.
Thanks, David!
Stay cool and hydrated!!’
David, not that it means anything, but Heart has taken no money – he’s not even the favorite with 10 minutes to post
Ha ha ha who has the last laugh, he wins.
😂😂😂🤣🤣🤣
Hi Betsy… we are even happier than Heart of Honor’s jockey Adrie Vries who said he was very happy with the performance of the son of Honor A.P. ; and every one agreed on expecting “better and big things” coming up for the beatiful runner.
Heart of Honor had some traffic hiccups in the backstretch but he was always in control … the jockey said that Heart “learned something today” refering to overcoming a lot of kicback this time…
He stopped the clock in a repspectable 1:37.55 despite running on the wrong lead … improving from his previous 1:37.96 … it is believed Heart of Honor will be better at longer distances… exciting horse to follow indeed!
Nelson, I just watched! My friend had watched it live & pointed out things of note
Yeah, Heart really wanted to run, so the jock had to wrangle him back, lol….looks like the pace may have been slow? But he settled well …and took a lot of dirt, so this race was an educational experience as well.
Heart is an April 29 foal, so he still has lots of room to develop …and yep, he was on his wrong lead until fairly late….when he switched, it was game over
He carried 131 lbs – 5 more than the runner up!
It’s hard to make these jumps in class this time of year because of all all the well bred newly turned 3 year olds out there
There’s no doubt this colt wants longer – he has a lovely stride
Can you figure out what his final furlong was run in?
Thanks!
Heart of Honor ran the last 400 meters (~2 furlongs) in 24 seconds … so he might have clocked 12 flat for the last furlong…
Wow, so impressive – thank you!!!
I am predicting with a high degree of confidence that the #1 spot in Steve’s Derby Ranking will be occupied by Sovereignty.
There is no TP horse that Steve has to hold his nose, given the trainer’s KD record and rank #1.
Barnes is the buzz horse. However, I cannot envisage any KD list that will have a colt with wins over 51/2 & 7F on top. His best opponent in the San Vicente emerged as
a fellow last out MSW winner.
If not Sovereignty, then it has to be Built. If for no other reason than respect for the 2007 crop of colts. Built is by Hard Spun out of Curlin mare.
Hard Spun and Curlin contested all 3 legs of the 2007 TC. Both had a KD starter that finished 2nd i.e., Exaggerator and Two Phills. Would the pedigree Gods be so unkind in not allowing the two to combine for starter to go one better?
My Ouija Board doesn’t agree with your prediction. I am just the messenger.
I’ll join in handicapping Steve’s #1….East Avenue! Complete toss, of his Breeders Cup race—terrible break and soft fractions—Bob ran one/two throughout, and The Bull did not get challenged until the top of the stretch—
You might be correct. However, Sovereignty close from last to win pulling away under a hand ride, whereas East Avenue made no impression when left in last place.
As for Steve’s numeral Uno. My dart landed on Journalism. No works since December 12 but still has plenty of time to prepare for a prep.
Hey Counter Point
Are you not concerned that Sovereignty has had just one official work since his win in the G3 Street Sense Stakes back in October? On Dec. 24th, he worked 3 furlongs in 38.00 at PPTC, but no works since then. He’s either dealing with an injury, or William Mott is giving Sovereignty a long rest. I doubt very seriously that Steve will list him at the top of his initial Derby Rankings. Just to be clear, I hold Sovereignty in high regard like several other Into Mischief colts on the Derby trail, but the lack of steady works is a red flag, IMO.
My prediction on which colt will land at the top of Steve’s initial Derby Rankings; it will be an Into Mischief colt, (Citizen Bull, Patch Adams or Barnes). Based on how impressive Barnes was in winning the San Vincente Stakes, I would guess that he will land at number one. However, a case could be made that Patch Adams and/or Citizen Bull could land at the top.
We shall see Steve’s initial Derby Rankings on or around January 21st.
BTW, regarding the Pasco Stakes scheduled for Saturday, at Tampa Downs, I believe you’re going out on a very shaky limb with your “Very Bold” prediction. Rookie Card, Naughty Rascal and/or Owen Almighty look much the best in that race. Just my opinion.
If I were to pick a longshot in the Pasco, it would be Cockeyed, at 20-1.
Given the trainer Harty’s recent run of success in graded stakes. Attention should be paid to Very Bold in the Pasco.
The Uinon Rags colt whose only win in 4 starts was over 7F, will be closing late. A strong pace is projected for the Pasco and that should benefit the Harty charge.
Very Bold is a very balanced colt with good stride mechanics and whilst not possessing a pedigree for sprint speed, he does have some amount of tactical speed to stay in touch with fast leaders. He is out of a rarely seen Candy Ride mare.
RE: Pasco Stakes, Tampa Bay Downs, Jan. 11th, Race #4, 7 furlongs.
Referenced race is considered a tune up for the Sam Davis Stakes, on Feb. 8th, with 20 Derby points going to the winner. A short field of six runners, made up of three favorites and three longshots with contest the Pasco. Owen Almighty, listed at 4/5 appears to be the one to beat. In the Iroquois Stakes, he was 2nd to Jonathan’s Way but was gaining with every stride in the late stretch run. Rookie Card, at 3-1, appears to be the speed in the race, and the one the others will have to catch. Naughty Rascal, at 5/2 cannot be dismissed either. In 5 career starts, he’s never finished out of the money (3-1-1).
A fairly large trifecta box with those three might work, (4-5-6).
Now watch Cockeyed, at 20-1, wire the field. 🙂
Hey there Bill .. that gave me a chuckle …..
Cockeyed wiring the field! That would be a trifecta players delight. Your evaluation of the Pasco field was spot on. I like Rookie Card here. He shows true mettle to the wire each race. Interesting race even with only 6 entrants. Goodluck Bill
Good luck to you as well, kmi.
Rookie Card is certainly one of the top three entered in the race.
Owen Almighty has been class tested, and Naughty Rascal has as well.
Rookie Card might be up against it, because he has yet to be class tested.
At any rate, this should be an interesting race moving forward on the Derby trail.
Good post Bill….
Settled on the 2, 4 & 6 in the Pasco
Betsy, Heart of Honor is now the favorite for Race 1, Dubai Maritime City Stakes at Maydan, January 10. Heart of Honor is 6/5 by most outlets. Fingers crossed.
David, I’m so nervous, lol…
When Hollywood Beauty won her stakes race at Parx, my friend messaged me a GIF of Elizabeth Taylor …it took me awhile to get it, lol. Once I understood that ET was a Hollywood beauty, I knew she’d won
I don’t think I’m going to be awake for the race, so I asked my friend to send me a GIF of a heart if he won, lol
Betsy, I could be awake for the race it’s 12:30 am here but possibly not. If I am and he wins I’ll do the same here.
Hah, thanks David! I’ll also do the same!
❤️❤️❤️❤️
Betsy, Nelson is often watching the races in Dubai so no doubt he’ll be able to signal as well. ❤️
Alright – let’s hope it’s like Valentine’s Day in a few hours!
❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️
Vanderbilt, by Into Mischief, out of American Gal, by Concord Point, is set to debut in a 6 furlong, $64K maiden race at GP on January 11th. He’s a Whisper Farm homebred colt in the capable hands of Brad Cox. His Dam, American Gal, was an exceptionally fast graded sprinter, winning the G1 Test Stakes, and the G1 Humana Distaff, both races at 7 furlongs. Her sire, Concord Point, won the G2 West Virginia, going 9 furlongs in 1:51.12 earning an Equibase speed figure of 111 in the process. In addition, he won the G3 Iowa Derby, at 8.5 furlongs, by 8 1/2 lengths, setting a new track record (1:40.37) in the process. He earned an impressive Equibase speed figure of 119 for that record setting achievement. Vanderbilt’s sire, Into Mischief, needs no introduction.
Bottom line, Vanderbilt has an excellent mix of speed, class and stamina reflected in his impressive pedigree, IMO.
Keep an eye on this colt moving forward.
Edit: Referenced race is a $94K maiden race, (not $64K)
Charge It bred by Whisper Hill Farm was trained by TP. The colt was 23L winner of the Dwyer G3. That victory came after a 17th place finish in the KD.
There was clearly high hope for the Tapit colt. The colt ended it 16 races career in the 2024 renewal of the Whitney. He finished last by 43 1/4L @ 42/1.
If I were the owner of Charge It, I would move on from the trainer under whose keep and care the colt raced.
Could this be the reason Bad Cox is the trainer of the Whisper Hill bred colt referenced in your post?
I suspect Vanderbilt’s connections selected Brad Cox because he’s one of the best trainers out there.
BTW, this morning (Jan. 9th), the morning line odds were posted on the maiden race that I referenced, (R4, at GP, Jan. 11th). It came as no surprise that Vanderbilt is listed as the favorite, at 2-1. Needless to say, Whisper Hill has high expectations on Vanderbilt’s potential moving forward. Will he turn out to be Into Mischief’s best colt on this year’s Derby trail? That remains to be seen. At this point on the Derby trail, I would venture to say that Patch Adams (by Into Mischief) is the best 3yr. old colt in the Bard Cox barn. I find it amazing that Into Mischief has such a vast array of 3yr. old colt on this year’s Derby trail. In addition to the two colts mentioned here, there’s Citizen Bull, Barnes, Sovereignty, Praetor, Donut God, Burning Glory and Tappan Street. Two other IM colts that I’m keeping an eye on, but have yet to debut, are Cornucopian and Playa Del Mar.
Bill: Taking nothing away from Vanderbilt, there are some other nice maidens in another MSW that day (Race 7, a one-mile event). They include first-time starters Grande (a Curlin trained by Todd Pletcher) and Wild Conquerer (Authentic, Brad Cox). Personally, I like Shogun, who has raced 6 times and finished in the money 4 of those tries. He’s a son of Blame trained by Dale Romans, Good luck to all!
Hi Ms Blacktype
I looked over that 7th race and certainly agree there are several that look interesting. Based on Camp Hale’s impressive speed, finishing 2nd in two career starts, I believe he’s the one to beat. He worked a bullet 5 furlongs in 58.57 on Jan. 1st (1/5), so it appears that Ian Wilkes has Camp Hale well cranked for this race.
Good luck with Shogun.
Santa Anita Park is in no imminent danger from wildfires but offering to relocate any horses at the track free of charge.
The track is also offering free food and drink to evacuees.
If you want to help, please consider donations to Fleet of Angels-West Coast.
I am a member of Fleet of Angels and can vouch for them that every dollar goes to help the horses with hay, feed and other necessities. It is an all volunteer organization.
Thanks for the suggestion about Fleet of Angels, Lynda. This looks like an especially bad fire, even for California.
Per a sports commentator friend on FB it is the worst since 2003.
First off, my heart and prayers go out to the all the people that have been impacted by the devasting fires currently raging in Southern California. Due to the fact that several Insurance companies have dropped fire insurance policies on numerous homes in this general area, homeowners have lost everything. So sad.
Back to horse racing, and my thoughts on the current Futures Odds at Ceasars Sportsbook. Burning Glory, by Into Mischief, out of Hail, by Tapit, is a Juddmonte homebred colt that broke his maiden at Churchill, going a mile, in 1:35.40.
Judging by his current odds, at 100-1, he appears to be flying under the radar.
Today, Jan. 8th, he worked 4 furlongs in 50.20, at PPTC for trainer William Mott.
Get those odds while you can folks.
Steve you are spot on about 7f racers being import. The trouble with Calif is a horse a horses ass called GN.
I really like this idea, Steve. Make points in sprint stakes conditional on subsequent route success. Of course, since it makes so much sense, CDI will never adopt the change.
Glad you are doing okay, Matthew. Thinking of you and everyone in southern CA and hoping the winds die down sooner than expected. I saw a photo on BH this morning of the fire just behind Santa Anita; I sure hope it doesn’t reach there.
My thoughts and prayers are with everyone in California.
San Gabriel foothills reporting 98mph winds—thats Santa Anita—four LA fires—Pacific Palisades homes wiped out, fire insurance was discontinued four months ago—firefighters have NO WATER coming out of the hydrants, fires are zero percent contained, and how could they? Mismanaged state! People having to jump out of their cars and run down a street, and cars had to be bulldozed, for firefighters to get thru—Santa Ana Winds expected to be 60mph thru Thursday….
The loss of fire insurance would keep me up nights. These fires are hard to watch. Are you in any danger, Matthew? Stay safe.
Not in danger—we had a giant tree removed last month, that had a large branch go through our roof in three places—that tree probably would have fallen into our house,lastnight! So we were fortunate–but even though our house isn’t in the fire corridor—we will soon be losing our fire insurance—they are lumping us all together—this is a poorly mismanaged state.
I’m glad that you’re okay, Matthew. Even though you have been through much tribulation recently, I pray that God will bless and protect you and restore your full sight. Please know that you are very much loved by all who post here.
Thank you Dewey! Greatly appreciated….⁹
Which state is your well managed one ?
Matthew W, latest reports and video show the wildfire danger inching closer and closer to Santa Anita racetrack.
Well they have evacuated part of Arcadia!
Matthew, are you still ok? I guess Blue just stays by your side all the time. Can’t remember your cat’s name. Sorry. Stay safe.
Blues is my 5 1/3 year old Great Dane that stays by my side, she sleeps under a wool blanket on my bed, if she gets up and blanket cones off she wakes me up—Mage—our Tortoise Shell cat that I bought with my Mage winnings—comes onto my bed every morning around 4am, and sleeps near my shoulder—and Nison our Standard Poodle gets up on the bed every morning, too—when I get morning coffee they all three follow me out—I’m pet rich, Blues is my constant sidekick, she goes everywhere with me….
Bison….
Matthew, I adore the Mastiff breeds and hope to get a pair when I retire. Standard Poodles are highly intelligent and excellent watch dogs. There must be so much love around your place. I’ve always had cats for companionship as well. Do you have aquarium fish or goldfish. I used to bred tropical fish as a kid then had to give them away whenever we moved, which was often.
Glad to hear you and your loveable friends are ok.
My wife built a pond in the backyard….she has koi….I got her a long eel like fish that lives near the bottom…the other fish don’t like him but he’s doing ok….one of her fish lost his tail…it just came off—my wife picks him out and hand feeds him and he’s been living like that for a long time, just not swimming…
I hope everyone who post here and live in Los Angeles are safe from the fires. Those people who risk their lives fighting fires for the benefit of others are absolute heroes. Bless them.
Davids, the devastation in California brought back memories of the devastating fires in Australia a few years back.
Houses and businesses and infrastructure can replaced but not the loss of life and wildlife and their habitats.
Yes, Lynda, Black Saturday. February 7, 2008 when 170 people lost their lives. I was unfortunately visiting family and friends in Melbourne during that period, something you never forget.
In a little township, Kinglake, 35 miles outside of Melbourne CBD within the Kinglake National Park some 38 people lost their lives within a flash when the winds changed. There was television footage live at the time and you witnessed the fireball change direction while the radiant heat engulfed houses in one street and they started exploding within seconds. Horror, pure, horror.
A couple trapped inside a brick home actually filmed the flames seeping through cracks in the wall searching for the oxygen within. People forget it’s not just the incredible heat that kills people, the fire consumes all the oxygen within its path.
When watching those flames, you couldn’t help but sense that you were in the presence of evil. Fortunately, the couple survived the fire.
Around the same time, on Kangaroo Island, near Adelaide, South Australia, some 40,000 Koalas and 20,000 Kangaroos were burned alive by a bushfire that destroyed half the islands vegetation.
Even now, people in Australia are allowed to stay and fight fires as a means of protecting their property as long as they have a safety plan. Why it’s not a mandatory order to leave your home for your own safety when told is beyond comprehension.
Cody’s Wish is officially a dad! His first foal, a colt, was born yesterday. Dam is Gr. 2 winner Hotshot Anna.
Steve, I think your idea of having conditional points for sprint races makes a lot of sense. I hope CD is listening.
Like Davids, I was struck by the fact that 8 of the 9 most recent Derby winners did not win a race after the Derby.
arlington fan, just saw the photo released by Godolphin. Born during the snow storm and Leslie Dorman said Cody loved snow. Oh how special is that.
Just a gorgeous foal with the sweetest face and he looks perfect!
I love that anecdote about the snow. Maybe the owners will take that into account when naming him. Cody’s Blizzard, perhaps!
I like that name.
I think it’s unanimous that we all like it , although there might be one descending vote in the group.
Who would that be?
How about “Cody’s Spirit”
I like it!
Like it Bill!
Someone and for the life of me cannot recall who suggested that Cody’s family be given the honor to name him.
That’s a great idea. I hope it happens.
Evidently, he’s already been named. On the Pedigree Online, Thoroughbred Database, his name is officially listed as Cody’s Hotshot. No details on how the connections came up with that name.
The dam is Hotshot Anna. I think Cody’s Spirit would have been better!
How about “Cody’s Honor”
Based on research, Steve needs to amend that number. it isn’t accurate from two angles.
Quick odds update: Rodriguez now 35-1, and Guns Loaded just added at 50-1…
Rodriguez getting bet, now 30-1
With the increased pressure on horse safety. We are seeing a much slower surface in the last few years. The reason speed figures are popular is that we can use the speed figure to compare runners and not the raw time. But it is very valid that using a strategic sprint for a prep can help the bottom, too many of these horses, come in with multiple races at 8-9 furlongs and no sprint foundation. Barnes already has two sprints, and his third race will be a route.
Years ago Santa Anita had its three year old ‘stepping stone’ route to the KD. They included starting in early January and progressed thru Jan, then February, then March.
6 furlong San Miguel
6 furlong San Pedro
7 furlong San Vicente
1 mile San Rafael
1 mile San Feliz
1 mile San Jacinto
1 1/16 Santa Catalina
11/16 San Felipe
then the
1 1/8 Santa Anita Derby
Most of these ‘preps’ are gone now.
Those were the days! Plus the older series was always a true test. Malibu, San Pasqual, etc, up to the Big Cap.
Thanks Steve for the 100% opinion and facts. Santa Anita did have the best 3 year old prep options. Unfortunately it makes no sense to at least include some of the better 7 furlong stakes races in their point system. There is a reason KD is becoming less relevant with all those horses not winning a single race afterwards. CD seems to not care to have some deep thoughts to rectify.
Sure, blame it all on CD.
Good blog Steve. This is how they feel they can control Bob Baffert & his formidable stable.
Horse racing is dirty just like most sports.
Look at that no pass interference call for Texas against Arizona State.
Is one naive enough not to believe that they want Texas in the championship.\
Our generation for the most part is long since gone.
Looking forward to the upcoming Derby Rankings.
Great article, Steve. Hopefully the powers that be at Churchill will read it and realize the elimination of Derby points in graded sprint races, such as the Swale and San Vincente, was a huge mistake. However, they would probably consider a reversal as “losing face” which is something they want to avoid at all costs.
Steve: You’ve made an excellent case for adding Derby points to key sprint preps like the Swale and San Vicente. And your point about only awarding the points if a horse also wins points in a longer race is a good one. I think we’re all looking for a Derby horse that has speed and can also stay.
If you look at the current batch of points races, the one that has the most dismal record in recent years is the Gotham-Withers-Wood sequence. (That 1 1/8 mile two-punch of the last two stakes is deadly.) When is the last time a horse emerged from any of these preps to be a major factor in the Derby? The last Gotham winner to win the Derby was Secretariat himself.
The Withers is a better prep for the Preakness (Early Voting, Bernardini) than the first Saturday in May. And arguably, the last productive Wood was back in 2003, when Empire Maker and Funny Cide duked it out, finishing 1-2 and then reversing that order in the Derby.
The other prep sequences in Florida, Arkansas, Louisiana, and California do a better job, precisely because trainers have the option of starting a horse in a short stakes that may not have points, but is still a good sharpener for tougher races to come.
It’s way too early to know whether Barnes will join the rare list of horses that began their 3YO seasons with a sprint stakes and won the roses, but he was certainly the most impressive winner on Saturday, at least to me.
Thanks for another thought-provoking column, Steve. It will be fascinating to see what you make of this year’s crop in coming weeks.
Churchill Downs is not to blame for the trainers shortcomings. Also, thanks to the breeding industry….the modern day TB is a fragile creature that can NOT withstand racing more than 10 or 12 races without falling apart.
Trainers of yesteryear, raced their horses into shape starting with several races at 2 years old, and a few more races in their 3 year old season prior the KD. There are plenty of points to be had….if the horses can handle the rigors.
Backpasser and his competitors would put todays horses to shame. The trail to the KD is only for a few select horses that might race 5 or 6 times and get whisked away to the breeding shed. As much as I appreciate the sport, unfortunately, it is a shell of its former self.
Your comments are on point!
“We also have to acknowledge the fact that eight of the last nine Kentucky Derby winners have not won a race after the Derby.”
Steve,
I do not entirely agree with the above numbers
2024- Mystik Dan – Still active
2023 – Mage – Never won after KD.
2022 – Rich Stike – Never won after KD
2021 – Mandaloun – Promoted winner – won 2 time after KD. Medina Spirit won twice.
2020- Authentic – excluded
2019 – Country House – Never made a start after KD; Maximum Security won races.
2018 – Justify – Won Preakness/Belmont
2017 – Always Dreaming – Never won after KD
2016 – Nyquist- Never won after KD
2015 – American Pharoah -Won Preakness/Belmont plus other stakes.
If Authentic is excluded, AP has to be brought into the last nine KD winners. Of those 9 the records reflect the following:
One didn’t make a start after the KD and had no opportunity to win a subsequent race.
Four now retired didn’t win a subsequent race.
One is still active but has not a subsequent race. He has the prospect to so do.
Three-won races after the KD –
Mandaloun/Medina Spirit -Pick your choice
Justify
American Pharoah
The disqualified Maximum Security won subsequent to the KD.
This is a thought provoking read, Steve. I think equine exercise physiology is with you, too.
In the last few years, there have been several interesting interviews with Dr. Larry Bramlage about juvenile equine bone remodeling, and how that strengthens the skeleton through racing and training when the horses are younger. Individuality means that we do not always know the exact level of work that leads to bone building, vs tipping over the edge into wear-and-tear. The heart and lungs become fit before (and more readily than) the bones, so finding the happy medium and bringing a horse along at the right pace for the skeleton may be central to the art of training.
It is my opinion that the correlation between Sprinting and longterm soundness you cited is related to this phenomenon. With a Sprint, young horses get a high level, fast workout that will lead to skeletal strength, but in a short burst/fewer repetitions, so that wear-and-tear is avoided. The bone responds by becoming stronger, therefore able to withstand more – and longer – races next out… and next after that. Plus, they get the mental benefit of seasoning. Still tricky! You have to get the Sprints in at the right times, and either know or get lucky on when to stretch out.
Here are the aforementioned lay articles that explain bone development better. (Pubmed is a great resource for peer-reviewed articles for those who want to go down the rabbit hole.)
Paulick Report, May 4, 2020. “Bramlage: Racing and Training 2-year-olds Reduces Their Risk of Injury – Here’s Why.”
Thoroughbred Daily News, December 8, 2022. “The Bare Bones: a Primer with Dr. Bramlage.”
I like your rationale about the points system. Sadly, rational ideas in general seem to be having a hard time finding a foothold of late.
Happy New Year! (Late… typical!)
Excellent post Katy and I agree with you.
I recall a column from Steve from recent years that covered the same points you have made.
It is my opinion that the greatly shortened careers of American Thoroughbred colts (not racing at age 2), long layoffs between races and breeding contracts based on pefigree and not performance resulting in early retirements (too valuable as a stud prospect to race because of insurance costs) are contributing factors in combination with unsoundness and inbreeding are at play here as well.
Originally horse racing in America during the Colonial Era (starting in the mid 1600’s) were sprint races between just a few horses in small towns and villages. It was not until Thoroughbreds were introduced from England in the 1700’s that races were run in heats around a 4 mile track. Perhaps we have come full circle?
I gave my overview of Barnes’ San Vicente win with some comparative/superseding performance in the stakes. I further highlighted a performance in a MSW over 7F that yielded a speed rating that was 11 point higher than that which was assigned to Barnes.
In conclusion, I declared that I was not in awe as many with the colt’s performance as I considered it to be on about avenge for the stakes no more no less.
I was accused of hating the colt. This is the kind of response that indicates to me that some supporters of this space are incapable of objectively assessing dissenting views.
Why would I have the colt? Which rationale thinking individual would arrive at such a conclusion?
Folk. some will see a glass as half full whilst other will see it as half empty. Is there no capacity be objective regarding both views?
My hate supposedly stems from the barn to which the colt belongs. I am on record ahead of the race, backing Romanesque for the win. The hype surrounding Bullard was unjustified as he was not as impressive in his previous stakes win as many alluded.
So, I selected one entrant from the particular barn to win but harbored hate for the eventual winner. This is the sort of thinking that led to a contributor accusing me of harboring Ill-will.
If I am not in concurrence or endorse certain views on a performance, it equates to hate. How does this make any sense?
Steve isn’t the leader of a cult.
Again….you like to outline your previous posts and then you add on these “hate comments” that are not there—you are consciously or not—trying to make yourself the victim—this blig isn’t that big, that you need to re-tell us about your not being impressed by Barnes…and it’s also not that big that you can say there’s a bunch of hate, aimed at you because you don’t think a horse is any good.
Did you get a laugh when he concluded with his humble opinion? I DID
Great article Steve. It usually takes around 50 points to be assured to get into a Derby, so carding a 7 furlong sprint race for derby points seems fine to me. The horses that win these races will still need more points meaning they will need to hit the board in the longer 1 1/16 and 1 1/8 , 50 and 100 points to the winner races. Your article lays a strong case where these sprint races should be added for minor points awards because trainers do use them as sharpeners for horses who can route to get into the KY Derby.
Steve,
You have been on record for as long as I can remember, preferring a stiff 7F, KD prep for a 3YO debut. The obvious question is.
Can you shed your bias and be objective regarding the ban?
Barnes emerged the favorite in the last KD Future Pool off a NS win is a 5 1/2F MSW. The fact that KD points are not allocated to sprint stakes didn’t inhibit the wagering public from jumping on Barnes’ bandwagon.
Only two KD winner (Silver Charm/ Nyquist) emerged from the previous 40 winners of the San Vicente. How impactful would KD points be for the race?
The truth be told. Even if KD points were allocated for races like of the San Vicente. Just about every KD enthusiast would still be interested to see how the winner of a sprint stakes stretches out. The there is no interest in how the winner of either an 8F or longer stakes, sprints.
What are the verifiable benefits of a sprint race in furtherance of achieving the objective of winning a 10F race?
There is nothing inhibiting a trainer from organizing a 6F or 7F sprint work for a KD prospect. The most successful KD trainer in the modern era, subject his prospects to the electrifying sprint works.
Most KD prospect make their debuts over distances < 7F & 8F. As a result, the wagering public get an opportunity to see most sprint.
The favorite in the 2023 Champagne had previously decimated opponents in its 6F debut. He finished last but one in his stakes debut over 8F. Did his 6F debut sprint help?
California Chrome 1st & 2nd starts were over 4 1/2F. His 3rd & 4th start were over 51/2F. He finished 6th in the 7F Del Mar Futurity. Is the big chestnut remembered for his exploits in those sprint races?
Mage made his debut in a 7F MSW and 3 races later won the KD.
The non-allocation of KD points to sprint races isn't a problem in need of a solution. In my humble opinion, the ban has very little impact on the result of the KD.
Well there aren’t any points for 7fur races, and trainers have decided to just run two turn races, as they prep their three year olds—Steve’s list of successful three year olds that ran in 7fur preps is a pretty thorough point–they are the cold facts
Well…two winners in past forty years won the Derby? The Gotham—I read where the last winner that won the Derby was 52 years ago, and it’s one more furlong and 50 points to the winner? The San Vicente is gr2—it’s certainly a prep for the Derby—a prep of a prep of a prep—but I think Barnes is being pointed that way….the way things are….California three year olds have to eith ship across country or wait until February, for points to the Kentucky Derby..
It’s not Churchill Downs’ fault that Santa Anita cancelled the Sham Stakes, held in January, knowing there would be no points races until February. The Gotham will probably remain a points race at NYRA, and its status has nothing to do with 7 f. sprint races not being given points. I think it’s run out of a chute, so it’s one turn, but it’s a mile so it’s not a sprint. The more national points races, the better, they promote the Derby.
Perfect point Steve. The fix to the system was to take the graded earnings out of the equation. The only problem is that they went to far in taking out the sprints and virtually eliminating fillies from the Derby. ( was that a knee jerk reaction to Eight Belles). CDI decision to change the system reminds me of a line by Scotty in Star Trek ” Engineers, the more they think up the plumbing, the easier it is to stop up the drain” Great post Steve!
Leaving aside the point system, i really miss the “old” stepping stone races to the classics. I think most of us admire fast horses who can keep going, but both the “preps, and the classics have become a guessing game of figuring which lightly raced grinder from which major prep can be nursed to his best race on the first saturday in May. I’m not sure if it is the current nature of the breed or economics that has created this situation, but i think it has clearly diminished my excitement leading up to the KD. I certainly enjoyed remembering many of the fast horses cited in the article, though.
Trinniberg… lol … ‘cooked the starch out of Bodie’, while I’ll Have Another gave Bodie a ‘toast’ as he coasted by him.
Great idea to bring sprint points back into the game. It really needs to be considered
Great post Steve.
You may appreciate my blog post from last year titled: “The mistake that Bob Baffert does not make”.
Lol. Obviously he’s made a few, hence his three year absence from the only stage he lives for most.
David, Heart of Honor was entered – post 3 in s field of 13
I’m not familiar with the opposition …
Betsy, only High Season when he won a race at Redcar in late September. Heart of Honor must be a good chance of winning here but there are quite a few unknowns here so wait and see. Fingers crossed.
Absolutely, David! He’s looking good – there’s a video of him from a few days ago on IG via Michael Adolphson
Can’t wait!
Excellent argument Steve, backed up with evidence. I’ve never quite realized that eight out of the last nine Kentucky Derby winners did not win a race after winning the Kentucky Derby. How damming is that statistic?
I used to think the point system was the best system to get the best runners into the Kentucky Derby but no longer believe so. I miss the importance the historic sprints once had in preparing a colt/filly to advance on the road to the Derby.
Not sure if you agree but I believe there are too many points allocated to 2 year old races. Making them earn their position in the Kentucky Derby by racing more would enhance more interest in the race as well as helping in the long run of stymying the Kentucky Derby last stance before retirement.
Thoroughly enjoyable ‘prep’ before the Derby Rankings commence in earnest.