Let it be Known, Rock is Ready to Roll
This crop of 3-year-olds has been called inferior and slow, and many are saying the Belmont is a poor field. But when you get right down to it, how many Belmonts can you remember that have had the 2-year-old champion and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner, the Preakness winner, the Blue Grass winner, the Santa Anita Derby winner, the Florida Derby winner, and the Wood Memorial winner? On the other hand, only one of the eight starters is coming off a victory and five of the eight were out of the money in their last start. For now let’s just try to pick a winner and save the reviews for later. ~ Steve Haskin
Let it be Known, Rock is Ready to Roll
By Steve Haskin
Confused you with that headline, didn’t I? Yes, there are two winners cleverly woven into one head, but for good reason, which will be explained shortly.
With my early big value choice for the Belmont Stakes, Rebel’s Romance, now sidelined with a foot infection, I actually considered two headlines for this column but couldn’t decide which one to use. One would have easily lured the reader into this tangled web of befuddlement : “Belmont Winner Finally is Known.” Did you catch the prediction that the 6-1 Known Agenda, who had occupied our Derby Rankings Top 10 for most of the year, will win the Belmont?
But another potentially prophetic headline would be “World Domination.” Not only does this headline also predict the winner, in this case Rock Your World who was ranked No. 1 for several weeks, it also suggests we’re going to witness one of those Risen Star, Point Given, and Bet Twice double-digit-length Belmont romps.
So which headline is more appropriate? That is what we’re here to decide.
Let’s start with Rock Your World, who had nothing more than a leisurely sightseeing tour of Churchill Downs back on the first Saturday in May. If you believe his horrendous start and ensuing lack of interest in the proceedings was reason enough to throw out the race, and if you believe his size, speed, and huge stride is made for those big sweeping Belmont turns, then, yes, it is possible that he could take the lead, run his opponents off their feet, and just keep going. There certainly isn’t anything in his pedigree to prevent him from doing so.
That is one scenario if you don’t mind the 9-2 morning line odds on a horse that finished at the back of the pack in the Kentucky Derby. I have maintained for a long time that this colt could be special. He looked far from special at Churchill Downs, and he is still inexperienced and an unknown quantity, but he is trying hard to put the Derby debacle behind him, as evidenced by his five-furlong work in a spectacular :58 2/5, far and away the fastest work of the day. And he did it alone with no company. So would it be a surprise to see him not only bounce back to his Santa Anita Derby form, but surpass it and win by a pole? Not at all. Then again, would it be a surprise to see him throw in another disappointing performance? Yes, but it wouldn’t be a complete shock considering how little we know about him and how bad his Derby was. Having been a huge supporter of his before he even set foot on dirt and having him ranked No. 1 for so long I have to think positive and can certainly envision him winning the Belmont in a runaway.
Now we come to our other headline about the Belmont winner being “known.” Anyone who has followed the Derby Rankings is aware that Known Agenda was ranked No. 8 in Week 1 when he was just a maiden winner, moved up to No. 1 in Week 11, and ended up No. 2 behind Rock Your World. Being I am in such a forgiving mood, how can I not forgive his ninth-place finish in the Derby breaking from Post 1 and being trapped down on the rail the whole way, which is where he does not like to be. He has had a tendency to turn the switch off in his races when he loses his competitive spirit, and that is usually brought on by a seemingly claustrophobic insecurity of being stuck down on the rail. Even in the Florida Derby, Irad Ortiz had to encourage him three times on the far turn to keep him interested until he was able to ease out into the clear at the head of the stretch. Once he did he drew off to an impressive victory.
What I liked the most about his time off between the Derby and the Belmont was his work last week when Todd Pletcher had him on the inside of the top-class Dr. Post, as if to teach him to be focused and competitive down on the rail. He did just fine down there and was striding out beautifully in the stretch working with a horse who will likely be one of the favorites in the Met Mile.
It might be a moot point, because he drew Post 6 in the eight-horse field. Rock Your World, breaking just outside him, will show speed, and stablemate Overtook in Post 8, will drop far back. So that should leave Known Agenda with a clear outside run to the first turn and you can bet Ortiz will keep him out there, making sure he doesn’t get caught too wide on that big turn. Once he is able to get into that comfortable grinding style of running and keep up a steady pace within striking range, he will be able to use his best weapon, which is his stamina. No one in this field is going to outstay him.
So there you have my two winning scenarios and my exacta box…and my two headlines. Win bets in an eight-horse field in New York are difficult to commit to because the odds have a tendency to be too low for ones liking. Known Agenda is the only one I can think of right now that might be worth a straight win bet, and you’re still not going to get great odds.
Now, what about the logical horses, Essential Quality, Rombauer, and Hot Rod Charlie? How do you leave any of them out? They are all classy and consistent, and have had their moments to shine in big races.
But if you’re looking for a reason to bet against them at their short odds, we’ll give it a shot.
No one is debating the fact that Essential Quality is a worthy favorite and always runs his race. And he has the versatility and tactical speed you want to see in the Belmont Stakes. And, yes, he lost an awful lot of ground on both turns in his fourth-place Derby finish, which enabled him to equal his career-high Thoro-Graph number of negative-1/2. That was two full points faster than the victorious Medina Spirit and one point faster than third-place finisher Hot Rod Charlie. The question with him is how he will handle the mile and a half, especially with his paddling action that may or may not have any effect on his performance. So far it hasn’t. Despite his wide trip, he still was almost on even terms with Medina Spirit, Mandaloun, and Hot Rod Charlie turning for home and couldn’t catch any of them. If he had managed to finish second or even third I believe it would have boosted one’s confidence more for the Belmont, considering he was an undefeated champion. But he just couldn’t improve his position despite having the length of the stretch to do so. That at least gives one food for thought if you’re trying to beat him.
Now we come to Rombauer, who was much the best in the Preakness and just blew right by Midnight Bourbon and Medina Spirit in the final furlong. Even a slight improvement should make him extremely difficult to beat, or even just maintaining his Preakness form. But again, if you are looking for a reason to bet against him other than the fact that his pedigree does not exactly shout a mile and a half, he is on a Thoro-Graph pattern that suggests he could “bounce” coming back in three weeks. Again, that is not to say he will, but consider that he ran back-to-back numbers of “7 ½” before jumping to a “4” in the Blue Grass Stakes. Given six weeks off after that race he made an even bigger leap in the Preakness, running a “zero.” Now he is coming back in only three weeks following a career-high number and stretching out to a mile and a half. Again, it is possible he is simply improving at the right time and he is that good, but if you are looking for a reason to try to beat him and you believe in the bounce theory then you can feel comfortable looking elsewhere.
Finally, we come to Hot Rod Charlie, whose best race was when he was able to control the pace up front in the Louisiana Derby. In his other races he was run down by Essential Quality in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and failed to catch Medina Spirit in both the Robert B. Lewis and Kentucky Derby, again, having the entire length of the stretch to do so in both races. He showed no improvement on his Thoro-Graph numbers from the Breeders’ Cup to the Louisiana Derby, but did improve in the Kentucky Derby off a six-week layoff. He is another whose pedigree is in question going a mile and a half, so can he improve again stretching out that far, especially if he doesn’t get the lead and again has to catch a horse in the stretch?
So, as talented as the three likely favorites are, there are reasons to play against them if you want to look for more value.
To be honest, there really is little to choose from if you’re looking for a straight win bet that will pay a decent price. Known Agenda as the fifth choice is the logical bet and after that you’e taking a chance with Todd Pletcher’s second and third string entries Bourbonic and Overtook, who both will have to hope for a fast pace and that everyone else comes back to them. The Japanese horse France Go de Ina is a total guess and did nothing to boost one’s confidence in the Preakness other than be in the hunt for the first half of the race before retreating. He could certainly improve in the Belmont, but how much?
So I am not going to devote a lot of time and money trying to figure out who to bet. Known Agenda will be my only win bet in an attempt to get a decent payoff, if of course he doesn’t get bet down too low. But if Rock Your World is 5-1 or higher he would have to be considered for a win bet as well.
I will also box Known Agenda and Rock Your World in the exactas. If I want to stretch out my bets I will be box Known Agenda with “all” and key Rock Your World on top with “all” and hope a price horse sneaks in for second.
Nothing interesting or creative here, but this field is not conducive to creativity or large investments.
So take your pick – “Belmont Winner Finally is Known” or “World Domination.” I’ll take either one. But for monetary purposes I have my own agenda…I think.
Add my name to the list of fans who would love to see the rivalry between EQ and HRC continue throughout the year. I mean, these two conjure up memories of Affirmed and Alydar who provided racing fans thrills and goose bumps. Even my friends and family who are not horse racing fans were excited watching the spirited duel down the Belmont stretch. Indeed, racing needs this rivalry to grow with these two talented colts. Hope to see them both in the Travers.
Thanks for the tip, Davids.
I’ve also seen a lot of the European stakes race replays on You Tube. You Tube seems to have a video for almost everything, from history to sports and beyond.
It’s good to see St. Mark’s Basilica in top form. C’est un cheval magnifique!
Trop vrai avec le tour de pied que l’on veut chez un père.
Exciting win by St Mark’s Basilica in the Prix du Jockey Club at historic Chantilly brought down a long weekend of memorable Classic performances starting off with Snowfall’s dazzling tour de force win in the Epsom Oaks. What a pity the stands were not filled to the rafters as you miss the roar of the crowd as the champions near the finish line.
Essential Quality continues his march toward another championship but there are a handful of other Tapit ‘brethren’ who may make that possibility extremely difficult. Nonetheless, the major winner of the weekend was racing it sparked in all it’s glory. Vive le sport.
Hear, hear! It was a great weekend for racing. And my wallet doesn’t make as much of a bulge as before.
Oh well, you can’t have everything I guess. Better luck next week.
It’s all good. We’re having fun, right?
Always, most of the time. Ha ha Horse racing is full of passion, sometimes a disappointing result can be hard to take and then there are tragedies which remain raw, forever.
Much like life in general. 😉
Yes!
Indeed a great weekend for the sport! I wish I could watch the races in England, Ireland and France.
If you just want to watch European races without creating an account at Racing UK, At The Races etc then Thoroughbred Daily News’ website has replays of most stakes races in Europe free of charge. Life is too short, start watching now. Enjoy.
Thank you
Excellent, now you can watch the Royal Ascot races June 15 – 19.
St Mark’s Basilica gave Aidan O’Brien his first French Derby … I just learnt that. Amazing runner winner at 1200, 1400, 1600 and now at 2100 meters. The son of champion sire in France, HH The Aga Khan’s Siyouni will be a headliner this year for sure. And Galileo is primed to be also a dominant broodmare sire for many years ahead…
The plotted way forward for the Essential Quality includes the Jim Dandy (July 31) or the Haskell (17) as a prep for the August 28 Travers. If the Champ is still sound after taking those emblematic 3-year-old Stakes he would then try what another brilliant Tapit, Tonalist, did in 2014. An eventual win in the Jockey Club and a good showing in the Breeders Cup against the best older horses would cement his championship title.
Mandaloun and Hot Rod Charlie seem to be his most fearless challengers… the youngsters could be dominating all divisions this year as the best older horses look a bit weak so far.
I know you will throw Flightline into the ring but, from his training log, it looks like he won’t be ready to take on any of the top 3-year-old horses this year… the other impressive Tapit, Triple Tap (half to American Pharoah) is also in the same situation.
Meanwhile the rivalry between EQ and HRC will be a nice gift for us the fans.
Nelson, do not forget the other Tapit colt, Greatest Honour. Flightline and Triple Tap are a mystery at present but the talent is definitely there. Moreover, the latter’s trainer’s predicament is another problem to be remedied for the colt to go further.
Switching sires, the other talented Into Mischief colt, Life is Good, is to return sometime soon but faces the same trainer problematic as Tripe Tap faces. These are colts with future sire prospects high on their agenda but need to win Grade 1 races to ensure that future.
As for St Mark’s Basilica, j’adore ce poulain, whether the Arc is a bit too far is a question that will solved by September. Yes, Siyouni, is one of the elites now going from strength to strength, globally.
PS: add Proxy to that Tapit ‘brethren’ list.
I think Rombauer left his race in the paddock.
Steve Pedigree Ann mentioned the top three Belmont horses all had two year old foundations….that was one of the best Belmonts I have seen, top two 11 clear, Rombauer out fought Known Agenda for 3rd, all three had two turn stakes placings at two, all three ran in the Breeders Cup…..
Good to hear that both Essential Quality and Charlie came out of the race in good order!
Doug O’Neill this AM: “I never felt better about getting beat”…..Flavien Prat after the race “Unless you fire me, I’m on this horse”….
Doug is one of the most gracious and nice trainers in the business.
I was talking to a friend upstairs at Santa Anita, Doug walks in and someone said ” are you buying?”, and he bought the guys a beer, looked at me and asked ” want a beer?” …I said no thanks, a real nice man….a cup-is- half- full kind of man….a leader.
We need a like button on this page. LOL.
I agree.
😮 You turned down a beer? … a FREE beer?
I dot not drink but I would not have turned it down, LOL.
That’s the spirit!
Matthew likes Margaritas in case you are buying next time…!
Salud!
He’s a nice guy.
Hi Mike, great, great Belmont!
For sure! Flying to Boston in a.m.
From DRF:
Doug O’Neill, the trainer of Hot Rod Charlie, said he had no issues with Prat’s decision to send the horse to the lead, which he told O’Neill in the paddock was his plan.
“He just wanted to send him away from there and if anybody got an easy lead it would be him,” O’Neill said. “It was a pretty short conversation, but one of just a lot of confidence from one of the best riders in the world. We all felt good legging him up.”
As they came down the stretch I was cheering for them both. Sounds crazy I know. EQ has been at the top of my list since the BC last year. Charlie is a horse that I came to have a lot of respect for and I think he ran an amazing race, he just did not quit. It was all in all a feel good race. Looking forward to match ups between these two the rest of the racing season.
I was thrilled with the result of the race. Both horses put on a great show of guts and talent.
Me too Helena!
Further down in the comments, JanBer wrote that “the win place horses in the BC Juvenile were in the same position in the Belmont, first time that’s ever happened, I think. Not sure if any BC juvenile winner has even won the Belmont.”
Excellent observation, JanBer! No BC Juvenile winner had ever won the Belmont. Even more amazing is that Essential Quality is only the second BCJ winner to have competed in the Belmont Stakes. The first ever BCJ winner, Chief’s Crown, finished 3rd in the 1985 Belmont Stakes. Amazing!
Interesting enough that Chief’s Crown’s damsire was Secretariat. Just cannot be denied the impact Secretariat has had on horse racing through his daughters. Broodmare sires simply do not get the credit they deserve in my opinion and neither do the dams of these horses.
Nice tie-in to our host site, Lynda!
Thank you.
Six Crowns derived her name from not only Secretariat, but her dam Chris Evert, herself a winner of what was then the Filly Triple Crown. I’m sure you were aware of this.
Not to mention the 18 Grand Slam crowns won by the human Chris Evert!
Why would you do that with this horse? HRC?…….someone said fastest quarter ever……..why? Does he need the lead?…..they knew instructions on rock were to go to lead…..
It is one of the worst decisions ive ever seen in a belmont……It just makes no sense…..
One writer said it was the best 2nd at belmont race track since slew……
I would like to know if it was instructions?…..or jock…….?
Before the race started they did ask Jerry Bailey to explain the difference of riding at Berlmont compared to the other tracks in the TC. His explaination which they had a visual explained how important it was to keep track of the markers on the track. HE did say it was easy for a rider not familar with Belmont to ask a horse too soon if they weren’t paying attention to those markers. Belmont is not a mile oval thus the difference. He didn’t quite say I told you so after the race but if you spend most of the time racing in Cali not going to be the same when you hit the Belmont track.
Other issue which again they did bring up is how many mile and half, 2 mile races do we still have in the US? Not very many. NY used to have 1 or 2 in the fall for older horses but seriously can’t think of any other track doing that here in the states.
Yes, Laura. Bailey made some interesting comments about riding at Belmont, specifically in the BS. But he wasn’t referring to the start of the race. That was where Prat and HRC came out of the gate like a rocket. From there to the first pole past the finish line, Prat was vigorously riding HRC. (“Vigorously” may be an understatement.) Apparently, he wanted to have the lead at all costs. It seemed that before they got to the first turn, Prat had eased up considerably.
BTW, take a look at the PPs for yesterday’s 12f Brooklyn Stakes for older horses. There seems to be more than a few races in the U.S. at 12f and longer, but not for 3yos only.
I did see that yesterday for the Brooklyn Stakes. I can’t though tell you how many of these longer races there are here. As for what Bailey was talking about I agree not the start of the race. Once he got the lead can’t tell you why he wanted to keep on pushing. RYW stayed with him a good bit of the first part of the race. Seeing how RYW didn’t make the top 4 spots he had him beat. HRC stayed on the rail the entire race. Still all in all great effort for HRC.
This is the only time as 3 yr olds they will attempt the mile and a half. How many will come back next year to try? Not many. Did see though where a 3 yr old filly by Chrome got her first black type win. So the racing contines on.
I think that, like in the Brooklyn, most of the horses in 12f+ races are 5 years old and older.
That is not relevant ……this was an out of gate scrubbing….asking hard…very hard……..it is shocking…..what not to do……if you have a pure speed horse, maybe try that……not THIS HORSE. it is still shocking to me……
Did NBC address the Derby mess in any meaningful way?
Was the name Bob Baffert ever mentioned?
I only tuned in right before the Belmont. I did not hear Baffert’s name mentioned though it might have been earlier in the show.
I’m not sure how meaningful it was, but they addressed it and addressed it and addressed it until I got tired of hearing about it. We got almost the same words on NBCSN and then again on NBC two hours later. I was similarly displeased when one commentator gave Sheik Mohammad the same treatment. He may or may not have committed a crime–I don’t know and neither does the commentator–but after that situation had been thoroughly reported, to rehash the same information when the horse was in the winner’s circle was unnecessary and redundant, was not in the best interest of racing, and added nothing to an outstanding Belmont. The race deserved better coverage.
The only thing they briefly may have mentioned was the owner of EQ and his daughter a mess that went on years ago. Again I was flipping between them and TVG so it could have been the other one. Never heard Baffert mentioned, only that MS had been disqualified.
What NBC did focus on was Valsquez and his support for jockeys, better medical care at race tracks and the trainer of Rombauer, background and what his thoughts were.
From what I was able to watch they stayed as far away from the KD as far as possible except to show some clips at the start, the bumping and I do believe it was NBC that said that after RYW got squeezed at the start took the jockey about a 16th of a mile to get his foot back in the stirrup again at the Derby
I don’t get TVG so I watched the two hours on NBCSN and then the two plus hours on NBC. They definitely mentioned Bob Baffert on both broadcasts. They showed his picture and they talked about his suspension and which tracks were banning him and which were not. They read the text of the document banning him and highlighted the words that questioned his explanations of what happened. They discussed how this will affect his owners and assistant trainers and speculated on the possibility that he might be banned from next year’s Derby and Belmont and still win the Preakness. As for the Derby itself, they didn’t talk much about Medina Spirit–presumably because he wasn’t in the Belmont–but, as you mentioned, they showed the bumping out of the gate over and over. They also discussed the Derby performances of the horses who were in the Belmont.
As for the coverage, the half-on-one-channel-half-on-another does raise problems because not everyone may get NBCSN. NBC compensated by repeating some of things they had already covered on NBCSN. This was annoying to some of us who had already heard it. I agree that the Velazquez piece was very good, but a lot of other things weren’t.
Sadly right now my internet is like 2 tin cans and string. I wanted to watch NBCSN but not provided where I am at. TVG was all over the place covering a lot of racing all over the country from Cali to NY.
I am sorry to hear they had to drag the Baffert mess into a race he had nothing to do with. One of the things I don’t like about NBC covering the sport. They do have a few on there that have knowledge but many don’t. It was a lot different 40 years ago when they covered the sport. More real horse people on there, better backgrounds on the horses.
Until the Baffert mess gets done and over with NBC should just go ahead and stick with the other stuff like baseball and tennis. Wil they be covering the other big races this year? Probably the Breeders Cup races. Hopefully will be able to watch those on Twinspire this time.
They advertised five or six upcoming races so they’re going to have quite a few. My chief objection is the commentator–I don’t know his name–who seems to want to dwell on anything ugly that he can find. Jerry Bailey is knowledgeable and Randy Moss isn’t bad except he keeps pushing the idea that the Triple Crown should be rescheduled. I hope the tracks learned their lesson about that last year.
I agree with you that racing people make better commentators. Bailey and Gary Stevens are good examples, and I remember the days of Frank Wright and Charlsie Cantey, who may have been the best of all. But who knows–if the top trainer in the country has some time on his hands, maybe he’ll want to broadcast. (Yes, I’m joking, but it’s an interesting thought.)
Yes really liked Charlsie and Frank. As for the reschedule of the races in the TC it’s like hey we can’t do this anymore so if they don’t train that way we have to change it. That just makes me sick. It disrespects the horses, trainers and owners that did get it done. Steve I am sure can provide the facts, have read before where has shown the schedule used to be a lot tougher. They actually in the past 40 or more years reduced what it used to be in the past so don’t tell me can’t be done. Just compare the conditions, tack that Sir Barton had compared to what Secretariat had.
I do like your other thought but he has too many other things to deal with now. If nothing else comes out of this debacle hopefully somehow we get a unified playing field across the nation for what is and not allowed. What NJ did with the crop restrictions? Going to ban jockeys from racing there if they don’t comply? How in the world is that helping anything.
Just when you think you have seen it all……….you see a jock ask a horse for everything early, scrubbing on a horse…….in a mile and a half race?…….amazing how well HRC ran……..whats funny now, would have been anger had i bet……..Did he actually scrub on that horse that hard?……i’m watching going “what the?”………fun race…..oth my derby horses, both excuse
horses showed nothing……i do not like excuses when you lose by alot……..
That’s an excuse…..scubbing on a horse and losing close race….
I am thrilled! What a great race. Congrats to the EQ team and to HRC who was all heart every step of the way.
HRC’s run reminded me of Bodemeister in the 2012 Derby.
you’re right, Bodemeister tried so hard in that
Yes he did!
I never was a believer in Hot Rod Charlie, but I am now. When Larry Colmus said they went the first quarter in 22 in a mile and a half race, I thought you could write off the three leaders, and I was dumbfounded at the way he held on. I guess Flavien Prat knew what he was doing when he changed horses. It was an amazing performance.
I agree.
Not surprised by EQ, of course. But HRC was game! That was a fast pace and he hung in there. Tapit…greatest Belmont Stakes sire by a mile (or should I say a mile and a half?).
Agree..Tapits rule in the Belmont!
I love seeing the champion asserting himself. The BC Juvenile is becoming relevant again… winds of the Golden Age.
Was that you who rammed EQ down from 9-5 to 6-5 in the last couple of minutes? 🙂
Actually, the win place horses in the BC Juvenile were in the same position in the Belmont, first time that’s ever happened, I think. Not sure if any BC juvenile winner has even won the Belmont.
Hi, JanBer! See my comment above (8:05 am).
Darley we’re using that ‘history’ to promote Essential Quality’s “Quality Time” in the Thoroughbred Daily News last night.
exciting race……..both my derby horses……congrats!
Still concerned about EQ’s “paddle” ? lol
yes…….nothing matters to you…….ive been talking about his paddle since his first race……yet did i like him in the derby?…..yes…..he was 6-5……….was this a surprise?……you keep making cute comments…….i didnt bet the race……guess why?…..how did your horse do?…..
I own horses…..my horse made thousands this month…….i buy horses, so these things matter…..you think all horses that do this are great. Nothing matters….I have always liked him…..he is a champion…..i do not like the paddle…..i actually dont like something else he does….you can bet him all year….go ahead…….i dont love him….he won…..he lost the derby……so what?
I’M ON RECORD STATING NEVER WAS I CONCERNED ABOUT HIS PADDLE. Made 6K on Preakness,what about you? “Nothing matters to you”. Really? Your whole deal is looking down on everyone,including recently stating Barry Irwin was looney. You should only be half as bright, he has you……….. in a rout!
I do not care……..because you do not know, is not my fault. You are the guys posting to me……..not the other way around……..
A paddle is not in my bad signs……….it is another category….but go ahead and keep telling me how wrong i am…….
You posted the smart comment not me……go ahead, feel free……i really care…..your knowledge is why i am here.
How many voices reside in your head?
Who cares what you won. Go back to BH. I’d say a lot more but I’ll keep it clean here!
Excuse me! lmao
Congrats on EQ, Mike. Only Pharoah was faster since 2001.
Thanks bro! Scroll up.
LOL
Can you believe it? Unreal!
Sometimes…..you just watch…..don’t love any of the 5 contenders……like the preakness. I was right then, a longshot won….this is kinda the same. I have all not running great…..too much unknown…..EQ and charlie were my derby picks….i lean towards charlie……but im gonna stay out….good luck……EQ shows me a slight bad sign…on paper good….but i cant figure out why hes not running faster…..he should have fired last time….he was this good 7 months ago……interesting race….i dont like betting tired horses…….staying out
Im an expert on this… and other things…you people just dont listen….stupid…derby…..like no other…19, 20 horses…small things become big deals…nobody understands…forget about the extra furlong…you been going against 8 or 9 runners….then boom ya got 18 or 19…KA…RYW…small field…they could win…could lose…dont know…i’ll bet on them anyway…not a wuss…kombucha tastes great…people dont know…good for you too
Alexa, who is this ?
You look like missing the Vet… and you need way more dots in your ellipses
lol
You somehow make jokes that you think are funny….
It is as funny as the 30 times you have made this joke……..can’t come up with something new?…..
Correct, since nobody is as hilarious as you.
It is funny.
Godolphin is having a great day with Adayar winning the Epsom Derby and Althiqa and Summer Romance finishing first and second in the Just a Game Stakes…
Presage for Essential Quality?
Essential Quality, so unlucky not to be undefeated.The Champion. Tapit sires his fourth Belmont Stakes winner, remarkable achievement. Would like to see Flavian Pratt head to New York for a spell, truly gifted jockey.
Hello Steve, looking forward to the Belmont. I am boxing KA and RYW in an exacta box. I will use RYW and KA on top in my TRI and SF. 6,7/2,3,4,6,7/2,3,4,6,7/2,3,4,6,7. I am also playing the late P5 starting with R9 The Met Mile. 1,3,6/4,7,9,10/6,7/2,3,11/1,2,3,6. Safe trips to all.
Rombauer currently at 8-1???? One point lower than Bourbonic.
No respect.
I’m kinda shocked. If this holds, I may have to rethink my wagering.
Last night (Fri) race seven Los Al…..#1 London Toby—-THAT is horsepower! Only a NW2X but in person that is a sight to see….
Oh no! A couple of TVG analysts are on my longshot in the Woody Stephens. Nova Rags. Still betting him, though. 9-1 with 10 minutes to post.
I’m not sure you can close on this track.
Hard to say. Track is still drying out. Went from Good to Fast in the last race.
Track looks fine to me…..speed held when speed was best, the 2:25 Brooklyn time is probably closer to 2:31, the fractions made it look as if he ran a :21 final quarter, probably :27…..
Updated to 2:28.97….
The time for the Brooklyn was corrected to: 2:28.97.
The Belmont Stakes will clock faster fractions. I expect around 2:27 as a final time…
Ummm…..WOW. 2:27.11
Steve, thanks for the intelligent detailing for this race, it’s really helpful. I like Hot Rod Charlie and can’t stop liking him. Perhaps Prat will have *double* incentive today. I just have a feeling that Overtook will have a big race, especially if there is a lot of early speed. That’s all I’ve got!
HRC is like EQ. Always runs well. Good luck!
Thanks EddieF! What a great race eh?
It was indeed! Can’t wait to see those two vs Mandaloun, Robauer, Midnight Bourbon, etc. in the Travers.
Have had a busy week so haven’t posted until now. The top horses are all so evenly matched that it’s hard to pick one, which leaves me back at square one: Essential Quality. I would be delighted to see either him, RYW, Rombauer, or Hot Rod Charlie win, so I think I will just enjoy the race this time . . . although cashing a $20 win bet would probably buy at least one glass of champagne!
You sound like me! Just going to enjoy the race and hope it is a safe one!
I won my glass of champagne! Although he got hammered toward the end, so maybe only Korbel.
You can’t fool me. You put down $50k late. 🙂
Oh, yeah, totally.
El Kabong alert race 3 Churchill 4-1. A maiden no more.
Yes!
I’d like to thank my producer, my agent, my bookie, and everyone who maid this day possible. I’m a little verklempt. Churchill Downs, neither a church or a hill. Discuss.
I forgot to thank my maid for picking out my outfit.
LOL. So glad he grew a goatee for this race.
It’s a game of inches and winning by a whisker counts. Even if it means going a little bit billy goat.
I found a way to botch my bet.
Like Master Piece in the Manhattan, ex boxed with Gufo…..also like Tamahere in the Just A Game, two 6-1 shots Brown/Castellano horses by way of Keeneland…..Master Piece might be the next big thing on turf….
Steve I finally just got to watch Rocks last work….unreal…. and it wasn’t just a bullet work and no gallop out… it was a run out… he wanted to keep running! He’s going to smoke this field….if the jockey doesn’t get knocked off….lol
And I love the training angle in that last work as working ALONE on the lead …where he needs to be.
The Belmont is the true and first test of a Champion…
Last work….he no longer slaps the dirt with high knee action…he’s takin to dirt.
As I said, he’s still a bit of an unknown, but I can see him winning by a huge margin if he’s the horse he’s supposed to be
I think Essential Quality shows everyone just how special of a racehorse he is, and wins the Belmont comfortably.
Despite getting his rear turned sideways at the start, he made up ground on the leader at every call going into the far turn, remained pretty much even on the far turn despite going 5 wide, then made up a little more ground in the stretch. So he was basically running splits of :24.
This is the race he explodes.
He’s never lost ground in the stretch of any of his races. You can’t say that about any of the others. He’ll be tough to beat, but I’ll take a shot. 🙂
Essential Quality has been a resilient 2-year-old champion so far.
Since 1970 only nine (9) two-year-old Champions lasted long enough to be in the Belmont Stakes. Riva Ridge (1st ), Secretariat (1st), Spectacular Bid (3rd ), Affirmed (1st ), Seattle Slew (1st ), Foolish Pleasure (2nd ), Chief’s Crown (3rd ) and Easy Goer (1st ) are heroes of the Golden Age of racing . Then, it took 26 years for another 2-year-old Champion enduring to be in the Belmont Stakes… American Pharoah became the twelfth Triple Crown winner, joining a most exclusive club in racing history.
The 2012 Belmont winner, Union Rags, was to many of us the best 2-year-old who happened to lose the BC Juvenile by a whisker… but he never ran again after the Belmont.
When a young Champion shows mental and physical toughness he is meant to reign over his peers for a long time. Those traits were the ones precisely displayed by Essential Quality in the Derby. It takes a stout horse to withstand the blow he took at the start from Rock Your World and to overcome a sharp lane cut from Highly Motivated. It was game over for RYW but not for Essential Quality who, despite losing at least four lengths at the break, was able to chase the speed by the first quarter.
EQ had to go very wide the whole race which made him run 68 feet (21 meters or about 8 lengths) farther than the winner. Speculation could go two ways. If EQ had not been impaired at the break, he might very well have been caught in traffic. He could also have saved ground and win the Derby.
EQ being so tractable makes him a dream ride for any jockey. His running style and disposition make him a well deserved favorite in the Test of Champions.
After 2017 any son of Tapit is born with the Belmont Stakes written in his forehead… and no one can deny that Essential Quality is the most accomplished of all Tapits before him.
I might be witnessing the Essential Quality / Rock Your World match after all.
Good luck to every one … and happy Belmont!
EQ is certainly a deserving favorite. If I had to make a bet on the LIKELY winner, he’d be the one. But at odds of around 2-1, he’s not offering much excitement on the betting front. It is interesting to read a common thread in the criticism of EQ, that being that he hasn’t improved figure-wise since his 2yo season. But his Brisnet figs from the BCJ to the KD are 101, 98, 102, 99. More than any horse in the race, he can be counted on for consistency. All of the top contenders have top figures in the same range (100 to 103). I don’t think you can expect significant improvement from those figs by any of them (though the longshot Overtook is eligible for improvement). Good luck to you! Enjoy!!
Belmont is tough for me…..i didnt like RYW or KA in derby at all…..they didnt run at all…….EQ was the best…..ran very avg preps, had no excuse to not win derby…..i also saw something i didnt like…..on paper he looks good….but i just can’t get over how avg he has been running….he was this good 7 months ago….he should be better…that leaves on 2 right?….romb looked awesome…..HRC has no faults, but not sure he wins………don’t love anyone….think i might watch…….All 5 if they fire best can win…..but who will fire?….
So, you didn’t notice RYW’s trip in Derby? What were you watching?
Hey Steve…you and Eddie were talking about horses that won Gr1’s on turf and dirt in the same year—-remember when a young upstart trainer came over from the Quarter Horses at Los Al, name of D Wayne Lukas….and in his first month as a Thoroughbred trainer he won Gr1 in New York on dirt….then a Gr1 on turf at Hollywood Park with the same horse less than a week later? Was that Effervescing?
Two Grade 1’s, less than a week apart and on opposite ends of the country…I just cannot remember the name of the horse….now THAT will never happen again!
UPDATE! Well, I got the name right! He won a Gr2 on turf…then 6 days later he won a stakes on dirt–BOTH were at Hollywood Park! But one thing I DO remember, was Effervescing was one of those horses you did a double take upon seeing him–his coat shined like diamonds!
He should have been named Effulgent. 😉
Saturday’s Belmont late Pick 5, race 7 through race 11, (.50 cent).
7th) 3-5
8th) ALL (12 horses)
9th) 6
10th) 4-10
11th) 3-6-7
Cost: $72.00
Safe trips to all.
I like Tamahere in the Just A Game.
Hey Matthew K W
I consider the G1, Just a Game Stakes, as the hardest race to handicap on the Belmont card. That’s the reason I pressed the ALL button in my PK5 sequence. However, if pressed to pick a winner, I’d go with Blowout, with top turf rider Flavien Prat in the saddle. Chad Brown has four horses in this turf race, all deserve serious consideration for win honors, IMO.
Looks like you’re on the right track…so to speak. Good luck!
Really looking forward to this one. Great field, weather looks terrific and the nice thing about this race is I don’t feel obligated to whip up anything special or fancy to eat. Got my Nathan’s bun sized dogs, mustard, relish, onions, sauerkraut, zergut polish pickles and cold beer. Yep, bases are covered. Oh yes, I have to pick someone to wager on tomorrow. Well lets just keep it simple as well. 20 dollar exacta box, RYW and Rombauer. Yes, R & R exacta box to go with my hot dogs and I refuse to think this one over. Going with the gut on this one and I’m placing my bets early cuz the gut is not going to be worth much come post time. Enjoy the race everyone and thanks for getting us all back together on this Steve. Did I really see Coldfacts down the list of comments? Gotta be a typo.
I was hoping there’d be an invitation somewhere in your post. Oh well. Good luck with your bets, anyway. 🙂
It’s those polish pickles. The mere mention of them creates a stampede of fellow foodies. Doors always open Eddie and good luck with your exacta. I was really behind Known Agenda going into the Derby. Thought he would get a dream trip, save ground and have plenty in the tank for the stretch. Idunno about him now. My gut says get off his wagon and the gut is calling the shots! Serenity Now!
You are right about the pickles, El K. But your entire menu is a winner!
The match I was expecting in the Derby between Essential Quality and Rock Your World did not materialize. Instead, both favored horses spoiled their chances by bumping each other at the start.
Rock Your World was essentially in a preservation mode after being knocked by Highly Motivated and bumping hard with Essential Quality at the break.
The general opinion is that a clean break and Rosario dictating the pace are the ingredients needed for Rock Your World’s redemption in the Belmont Stakes. His Santa Anita Derby was too good to be ignored. I see parallels with the impressive win of Mandaloun in the Risen Star which let many of us expect his rebound in the Derby after a dismal last prep. Also, Midnight Bourbon, just like RYW, was out of his element in the Derby and showed his real self in the Preakness. If they could rebound big time so can the son of Candy Ride.
Rock Your World is the real speed of the race, but he should be able to get the mile and half. Empire Maker and Giant Causeway in his maternal side warrant enough stamina to stay in the Test of Champions.
There is a New York bred named Henry Ride by Candy Ride out of an Empire Maker mare, who has won G1 and G2 Stakes at 2 miles and 1.5 miles in Russia. You may say Russia does not imply much but at least the nick has proven to be successful in marathons.
The battle of the undefeated did not happen but the war for the 3-year-old Championship is just getting extremely exciting.
When Flightline returns, he is in light training according to one of the owners, the battle will be short lived. Meanwhile, in England a Snowfall turned into an avalanche when the Oaks took flight. Isao Tomita has the perfect tune to salute the winner.
Nelson, Flavin Pratt may shatter your presumptions, we’ll see. With the Epsom Derby, Belmont Stakes, Prix du Jockey Club all to come, yes, it is ‘just getting extremely exciting.’
Thanks for your reply Davids. Prat or Saez are primed to great rides tomorrow. I was watching Hot Rod Charlie face on TV a moment ago and he has the look of the serious fighters in him.
Regarding Flightline, I believe is a bit late for the monumental son of Tapit… perhaps a four year old campaign will be brilliant for him … if he remains healthy (to me a big if though)
Snowfall looks amazingly good this year after a 215-day hiatus from a not very auspicious end of her 2-year-old campaign. Nice to see a Japanese filly and Dettori associated with the O’Brien Empire.
Entertaining and exciting times ahead indeed..!
For the Epsom Derby, Mac Swiney gets the nod; Belmont Stakes, Essential Quality returns to the winner’s circle; while in perhaps the best race, the Prix du Jockey Club, St Mark’s Basilica further cements his credentials as the best 3 year old colt.
The calm before the storm.
I haven’t seen a reference to Russia in a racing blog since Putin was prime minister. 😉
The main difference between RYW and the rebounds by Mandaloun and Bourbon is that the latter two were more experienced. But I see no reason why RYW can’t rebound in the Belmont.
Open question to anyone..
The derby seemed like a really traumatic experience for Rock Your World in my opinion. Only 3 prior starts in races without crowds (Covid), so derby is first time in a big setting, big field, I’m sure there were nerves. Gets roughed up at the start, behind so many horses early, I think by the top of the far turn he just wanted it to be over and started giving up, and then completely shut down after that last jab/smack by Midnight turning into the stretch.
The question… can he just put this traumatic experience behind him next race out? Or do you think he’ll need some time, a race or two to get over it, get his confidence back?
I posted “i wouldnt run him in belmont” after the derby……..for those reasons……didnt spendthrift buy part? I think that was him….keepmeinmind…and him……
I think that may have something to do with it…..i would have found easy race, got him going in right direction….mentally and physically………good post ny you.
Rombauer skipped the Kentucky Derby, and there were no closers….he wins Preakness for fun….gets to work at Belmont, and trainer McCarthy said last weekend he wouldn’t mind an off track—-things have gone Rombauer’s way this year…..
If Rombauer wins, he would be the first to ___?___ since the Triple Crown’s current sequence began in 1932.
No research allowed!
Skip Derb, win Preak, win Bel?
YES!
He’d be like Man O War.
Did you know that Man o’War’s Belmont Stakes was a 2-horse race? Imagine the outrage if that occurred today. 🙂
Nobody wanted to face him as he was that dominant. The other horse was entered if I recall correctly, been a bit since I read that history was entered just so there would be at least another horse in there. Wasn’t the other colt Golden Broom? Believe they had trained together as 2 year olds. Mr Riddle retired him because of the amount of weight he would have to carry the next season.
So imagine the outrage if the colts running later today were not all carrying the same weight. I doubt those old handicappers would be assigning the same weight across the field. Those days of the real iron horse seem to be long gone. Not that we don’t have an iron horse out there somewhere. They won’t give them the chance to prove it.
If my memory serves (i.e., my “memory” being Wikipedia), the lone opponent was Donnaconna.
The “real iron horse” won multiple group stakes in Australia in the late ’90s. His name was Iron Horse. 😉
We often use abbreviations as a shortcut for writing numerous racing-related terms or names (e.g., TC for Triple Crown, KD for Kentucky Derby, ITM for “in the money,” EQ for Essential Quality). I’m wondering why I never see an abbreviation for the Belmont Stakes.
Clever!!!
Coldfacts! Is that really you?
Coldfacts! Your comments on the other site are astute. Enjoy reading them.
Way back in the early 70’s, my brother worked for a place that served Big Macs, and rule #1 was never refer to it in abbreviated form!
LOL. That would be bad for business! (BFB)
Hope you can make balloon animals……
Maybe you can.
Imagine any one trying to abbreviate the Fukuryu … from the Japan road to the Derby.
Ha ha! And to think that “fukuryu” means “Have a nice day.”
[not really]
The romance of the Belmont withered with Romance scratching but I had Rock and Rombauer with him. You make excellent points. I’m very disappointed in the Met Mile. 6 in the gate. How far have we fell. Not a 3 year old in the bunch. People should listen to the Coach when he said ” We made a living when we entered where we weren’t supposed to be!” I find it hard to believe we can’t fill that gate!. Where are the sportsmen in the sport?
It’s pretty much all big business and corporation ownership these days. Not all of them but getting harder for the little stables to compete.
Any owner of a stakes horse has the money for the entry fees. The Met Mile can be a stallion maker let alone if you hit the board you got BLACK TYPE and in the Met. People will notice that. Take a shot
Ortiz Jr. out ‘couple of weeks’.
Now, who rides:
Known Agenda
Colonel Liam
Mischevious Alex
Letruska
Search Results et al…
Probably the most painful financial break I’ve seen a while for a jockey
Swiss Skydiver out of Phipps with 104 degree fever.
Best horse on the card! Swiss out, and weather! Too bad…
Poor Known Agenda! That horse has the worst luck—draws the one post in the Derby, now loses his jockey for the Belmont. Todd Pletcher must be in shock, and I’m so disappointed. He’s been my horse since he hit the track. That said, I’m glad Ortiz was not badly injured.
I’m sure Pletcher will find a good replacement. There’s still another Ortiz out there.. Keep it in the family.
If Jose is chosen and wins on KA, do you think he’ll give his winnings to Irad? 🙂
Hmmmmm…..probably not!
Hope so—and Irad could give Jose explicit instructions. Keeping my fingers crossed.
Hopefully, Irad Ortiz Jr. makes a speedy recovery from the injuries he sustained at Belmont today. Word has it he’ll be out for a couple of weeks. This changes the entire dynamics on Saturday’s Belmont card. Who will ride Known Agenda in the Belmont Stakes, Letruska in the Ogden Phipps, Pocket Square in the Just a Game, Mischevious Alex in the Met Mile, Colonel Liam in the Manhattan, Drain the Clock in the Woody Stephens, Moretti in the Brooklyn, Search Results in the Acorn and Fast Boat in the Jaipur? Good luck to the connections in finding replacement riders.
Irad Ortiz is okay. Best news of the day! Just realized how much he’ll be missed after he went down.
I like Overtook in this spot. Can see all the big dogs either not firing or shortening stride that last quarter.
Peter Pan was just a leg stretcher coming off the layoff. And he still ran well from off the pace in a race that went slow early, pretty fast late.
Think he’s made to show his best at 1 1/2 miles. Time for the $1 million horse to break out.
I’m Rombauer all the way, but I will play him with Overtook and Bourbonic. Bourbonic’s two grandfathers (AP Indy and Afleet Alex) won the Belmont.
…and Overtook is a son of Curlin, sire of Belmont Stakes winner Palace Malice. His dam’s sire is Belmont Stakes winner A.P. Indy, the sire of Belmont Stakes winner Rags to Riches. Overtook and Bourbonic have the best Belmont Stakes pedigree connections in the first two generations of all the runners in tomorrow’s race. I can’t fault anyone who bets either or both at the expected odds to win or in the exotics. But I’ll stick with my safer choices, KA and RYW. 🙂
Yup, I’m all about getting the distance in this race. So your KA and RYW picks are solid. Good luck.
Would be a nice exacta DES 🙂 Good luck.
“But when you get right down to it, how many Belmonts can you remember that have had the 2-year-old champion and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner, the Preakness winner, the Blue Grass winner, the Santa Anita Derby winner, the Florida Derby winner, and the Wood Memorial winner?”
Wow! I just looked at every field this century. No other year comes close to this one. Excellent observation, Steve.
We just have to figure out if theyre all good or all bad. either way they cant complain they didnt get the best of the best other than the Derby and even there they got the 3rd and 4th horse.
I’ve been saying….it’s a good Belmont this year—five solid contenders—all pretty good horses….It would not be a surprise by any of the five winning….
I’m baffled about why Mandaloun isn’t in the Belmont.
We’ll there were six weeks between LA Derby and KY Derby, and when you figure he flopped in LA….he might have really been gassed after Kentucky….
Looks like his works say he’s okay.
5/15 4f 48.20
5/22 4f 48.20
5/29 5f 1:00.20
Known Agenda, Rock Your World, Rombauer ex/tri boxes….going to gamble that the other two contenders, Hot Rod and Exclusive—hang like the did in Kentucky…..think Prat might go for the lead, if Rock outguns him then lay a close 2nd….
Just as a heads up, Valiance has been scratched out of the Ogden Phipps Stakes, one of the graded races on Saturday’s Belmont undercard, (R7). She’s developed a fever. Swiss Skydiver, Letruska and Shedaresthedevil appear to be the top contenders remaining.
Belmont is one of those tracks that benefit locals…not saying he’s going to win…..saying I think Known Agenda is going to fire big! Looked good the other day.
I see a California trifecta….Rock Your World, Hot Rod Charlie and then Rombauer.
FYI….I’m not a Californian nor live there…actually from New York (Buffalo)….just think that the three year old males that have raced numerous times in the Golden State are step better than their competition from ‘out of state’.
So torn between Rock Your World, Essential Quality, Rombauer, and Hot Rod Charile. Guess I will be happy if any of these 4 win.
Best of luck and safe racing.
So appreciative of you Steve and all of the time and effort you put into all these columns!
Those are the four favorites so you have a pretty good shot.
I like all along BOTH EQ and RYW. Going with EQ.
Steve, this could very well be the first time that we are completely in sync on a TC race. Therefore, you have a couple of days to rethink your picks. 😉 We always talk about how the Derby is a great challenge to 3yos in May as they’re traveling a furlong further than they’ve ever run before (the new La Derby changes that a bit). But the Belmont! For the horses that ran in the Derby, it’s a quarter mile further. For most of the others, it’s 3f further.
Because of that singular challenge, an understanding of contemporary Belmont Stakes history plays an important role in the handicapping process. That is where I would add to your analysis. Here are a few nuggets I’ve found while studying the last 20 Belmonts (at 12f):
1) The sire and/or dam sire of every Belmont winner but one (Ruler On Ice) had an average winning distance for their runners of at least 7.0f. The likely second and third betting choices, Hot Rod Charlie and Rombauer, are the only entries who don’t qualify on this point.
2) Horses that were in the money or within 2 lengths of the winner in the Derby and skipped the Preakness are 1 for 13 in the Belmont (Empire Maker was the lone winner). Essential Quality and Hot Rod Charlie do not qualify on this point.
3) You’ve already written about the record of horses that ran poorly in the Derby, then went straight to the Belmont: 8 winners — all at decent prices except for Union Rags. Bourbonic, Known Agenda, and Rock Your World qualify on this point. As you said, Bourbonic needs a swift pace. He won’t likely have one. Then there’s the questions surrounding the Wood Memorial!
4) Horses that skipped the Derby and Preakness have won 7 of the 20 Belmonts — all at big prices except for Rags to Riches. Overtook qualifies on this one. But one has to wonder about this Pletcher longshot. Why would the trainer send the easy winner of the Peter Pan to the Ohio Derby and enter Overtook, who was nearly 4 lengths behind in the Peter Pan, in the Belmont? Isn’t Promise Keeper a more logical winner of the Belmont? And then there’s the addition of blinkers for Overtook. He lost his first two races by wide margins with blinkers. Why put them on now?
I, too, will be waiting until the last hour to see the odds for a win bet (or bets). But an exacta box with KA and RYW is a definite!
Thanks, Steve, for another superb analysis.
Thanks Eddie. I cant believe this is the first time we’ve been in sync. My analyses are so spot on and so well thought out, how can you not always agree with me? Whats wrong with you?
No! First time COMPLETELY in sync. That’s why I’m worried about you. LOL.
I have faith in you.
Something to think about again and thank you. Now when it comes to horses that paddle when they run we have over the years had a few still win and win big. I do believe Seabiscuit was one of them and maybe Mine That Bird? Reason asking about Mine that Bird currently going over again a book about Northern Dancer. A lot of pedigree info making my head spin for real. Maybe small and fiesty is enough this year. I do though like the Rock. May they all come home safe and sound and please oh please! Pass the darn screens before and after.
Hot and humid Belmont day. Something to think about if you’re a RYW backer.
He should have enough time to acclimate. Heat used to I would think but humidity? He doesn’t get worked up before the start don’t think it will bother him
We’ll see. Looks like we have rain tonight altho the storm will pass the down state. And thunder showers tomorrow. And then just warm on Saturday. 85 is not really heat. But humidity could be a factor, as always on the coast. I mainly think about the distance. That and 2.99 may get you a cuppa at Starbucks. 😉
I never put down picks……why am i the only one that thinks the horse that likes rice, is going early? He doesn’t relax well……….i really don’t understand all the pace talk…..Rock getting easy lead…….who cares?…..its a mile and a half….its all over the blogs….what the pace will be…..who gets the lead?…..
Every horse can go 48……if they want……just bet the horse you think will fire……..you’ll see who feels it after 6 f…….
Show me where it says RYW WILL get an easy lead
Was not talking about you…….it’s all over….Hrn has a guy that every article is about pace….
Hi Steve- I agree with your analysis and will also do a RYW/KA exacta box. I will lean on one of the Big 2 to win to try to also hit the TRI or SF. The other 3 I will use below them to fill out 2-4 spots will be Rombauer, HRC, and EQ. It should be an exciting Belmont and I am thrilled that the 1 1/2 format is back in play after last years wacky TC. RYW and KA will be the only 2 I will use in my Late P5 which starts with the loaded Met Mile. Thanks for the insights Steve, I am on the same page with you for the Belmont. Hope we both cash some tickets!
Hi 1JoeP
Just for clarification, the first leg of the late Pick5 starts with the Ogden Phipps Stakes, race #7, (not the Met Mile, race # 9).
Good luck with your picks.
Hello Bill – You’re right Bill, there is a P5 which starts with Race 7 and ends with R11 which is the Belmont. There is also a P5 starting with race 9 , The Met Mile and ends with race 13. This P5 includes the Met Mile, The Manhattan, The Belmont, and 2 Turf allowance races, this is the P5 I will be playing. I will post my P5 picks starting with Race 9 before the start of the Met Mile. Good luck on your Belmont wagers, I also like RYW and KA in the Belmont, and those are the only 2 I will use in the P5.
My apologies 1JoeP, I wasn’t aware there are 2 late Pick 5’s on Saturday’s Belmont card. I’ve got my late Pick 5 figured out, I think! With the recent announcement that the Ortiz brothers were injured today, this could change things. I haven’t heard just how serious those injuries are, but I’m hoping they’ll retain their respective mounts on Saturday. If you’ve heard any late news on their condition, I’d appreciate hearing from you.
Thanks 1JoeP
Irad Ortiz Jr. was injured, not Jose. Irad was sent to the hospital for observation. His current condition is unknown.
Stay tuned.
Hi Steve
I’m still licking my wounds for missing my Futures wagers on RYW in the Derby. Hopefully, when the gates open, in the Belmont, Rosario will have RYW on the engine early, and employ a catch me if you can strategy. I like Known Agenda as well, and will key both colts on top, in the first two slots, with EQ, HRC, Rombauer and longshot France Go de Ina underneath in the 3rd and 4th slots, (in my $5.00 Super P/W wager). In the Trifecta, I’ll key RYW on top, with EQ and KA in the 2nd and 3rd slots, in a fairly large Tri P/W wager.
That is; 6,7/6,7/ 2-3-4-5/ 2-3-4-5 (super). 7/ 2-6/ 2-6 (Tri P/W)
Safe trips to all.
It’s AMAZING what a single horse, Keepmeinmind, did to Known Agenda in the derby. Shut the door in his face 3 separate times! Mid stretch at the start, heading into the far turn, and mid stretch at the end. Talk about a thorn in his side.
In the stretch Unknown was motoring before he got blocked. Watch the track feed of the gallop out and who’s that caught up to Hot Rod and Midnight? Oh yeah Known.
So… he got shuffled back 3 times. Came back on really well each time.
All that said, I still don’t see him winning the Belmont. I can’t imagine Essential Quality not winning a leg of the Triple Crown, and I think he’s the safest play of the horses I think can win. $200 Win Essential. $2o Exacta Essential > Known. Hoping for 3-1, as I think the wise guy money will be split between Rock and Known.
Don’t forget about Like the King/DVD and how they bothered Known Agenda as they first got to the rail. As for Essential Quality, he’s the best horse on paper. But I don’t think he’ll be anywhere near 3-1. He’s 2-1 in the ML and could very well be under that at post time. Favorites at less than 2-1 are just 4 for 15 in the Belmont since 2000; overall, favorites are 4 for 20.
Rock romps! Had $400 on him in future derby pool at 30/1 and called him the next Secretariat …. now we shall see…bowed out of thread after horrible start in Derby…. was pissed at Jockey change ….but now we will see who the potential Triple Crown horse might have been if they didn’t change jockeys for the Derby. Should have left the Italian Jokey on him…. he wouldn’t have been sleeping at the wheel at the gate. Rock needs to be shook up and in the gate ! Needs to connect to rider!
Don’t forget how he romped on Medina Spirit in California!
I consider “Let it be Known, Rock is Ready to Roll” one of your best analysis on a Triple Crown race. We’re definitely on the same page as it relates to my top two contenders, (Known Agenda and Rock Your World). I’ve been on the RYW bandwagon from the get go, and will not be jumping off any time soon. On occasion, Rosario seems to have a problem leaving the gate as he did with RYW, in the Derby, and with Warrior’s Charge, this past Monday, in the Steve Sexton Stakes, at Lone Star.
Hopefully, Rosario will be on his toes when the gates open, and get RYW involved early on and throughout.
Known Agenda checks a lot of boxes, including the highest Equibase Speed Figure in the field at 112, which he earned with his Florida Derby win. The 12 furlong distance should not be a problem.
That said, I’ll key RYW and Known Agenda on top in the first two slots, with Essential Quality, HRC, Rombauer and long shot France Go de Ina, in the 3rd and 4th slots. That is; 6,7/6,7/ 2-3-4-5/ 2-3-4-5 ($5.00 superfecta wager)
In the Trifecta, I’ll key RYW on top, with KA and EQ in the 2nd and 3rd slots, (in a fairly large Tri P/W wager)
Safe trips to all.