Life is Good, But Good Enough to Beat Flightline?
Many people are wondering what Flightline’s margin of victory will be in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Very few are wondering who can beat him. But are most people underestimating Life is Good? That’s what we’re about to determine. ~ Steve Haskin
Life is Good, But Good Enough to Beat Flightline?
By Steve Haskin
Life is Good finished fourth in his only start at a mile and a quarter. He was only workmanlike to beat a small subpar Woodward field by 1 1/4 lengths in his last start at odds of 1-20. His highest Thoro-Graph number by far has come at seven furlongs. His fastest two-turn Thoro-Graph number in a two-turn race is six points, or the equivalent of 12 lengths, slower than Flightline’s fastest number. His total margin of victory in his last five wins is 17 ¼ lengths; Flightline’s total margin of victory in his last five wins in 62 ¾ lengths.
So, how in the world is Life is Good expected to beat Flightline in the mile and a quarter Breeders’ Cup Classic? How is a horse who narrowly defeated Law Professor, beaten almost 30 lengths in his last two graded stakes, going to now defeat a horse people are calling a freak and the next superstar? Why is the Classic being billed as a showdown between the two top older horses in America when one seems far superior visually and in every statistical category?
Welcome to the wonderful, wacky world of horse racing where anything is possible and not everything is as clear and cut and dry as it seems. It has to be that way or else longshot bettors would go broke in a month. The late Allen Jerkens made a Hall of Fame career out of knocking off sure things, often with former claimers and rejects. And in our two most prestigious races, the Kentucky Derby and Breeders’ Cup Classic, the names Arcangues, Volponi, Wild Again, Mine That Bird, Giacomo, and Rich Strike would mean nothing if races were a foregone conclusion.
Not that Life is Good can be compared to those megabombs. After all, in any other year he would the solid favorite for the Classic; the horse whose brilliant speed would make him the horse to catch and certainly the horse to beat. So, why paint such a bleak picture in the opening paragraph? Because this isn’t any other year; this is the year of Flightline, a horse unlike anything we’ve ever seen before at this stage of his career.
So, now let’s return to the second paragraph and the gist of this column. How can Life is Good, with his impressive nine-for-10 record in the United States, his $4.3 million in earnings, and his four Grade 1 victories beat a horse who is so much faster, so much more dominating, and so much more explosive than he is?
There are several ways of going into battle against such an overwhelming opponent. You can be David against Goliath and do something so unconventional it catches the far superior foe off guard. You can be the unheralded Buster Douglas, who went into the ring with the fearsome, intimidating, and seemingly invincible Mike Tyson and showed no fear, going for the knockout and again catching the bully off guard. And then of course, you can be Michael Spinks, who went into the ring with Tyson with so much fear you knew the fight was over before it started and that a first-round knockout was a sure thing. Many of Flightline’s opponents will go in the race praying for a miracle, but realistically hoping for second.
You can forget that last scenario with Life is Good. His trainer Todd Pletcher fears no one and will instill plenty of confidence in his colt and just has to figure out whether to utilize the David or the Buster Douglas strategy. As Tyson used to say, “Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.” So will Life is Good use the surprise approach and do something he’s not supposed to do or does he stand up to Flightline? Douglas got knocked down, but kept getting up and exchanging blows until he destroyed his opponent’s will. The result was a shocking knockout.
Both of those strategies are easier said than done, but Pletcher is a great tactician and will have a plan of attack. He is well aware of Life is Good’s main weapon, which is speed. Before we get into what those plans may be, let’s look back at Life is Good’s so-called disappointing effort in the Woodward that national TV commentators said was unimpressive.
Pletcher has never been one to unload in prep races and you don’t want to see a horse with exceptional speed who is still a question mark at a mile and a quarter use his biggest weapon against inferior competition when he is going to have to come out with guns blazing against Flightline, as well as Epicenter, Taiba, Olympiad, and possibly several others. If you follow Thoro-Graph or Ragozin the thinking is you don’t want to run some extraordinary number before the biggest race of the year and then have nowhere to go but down. So while Life is Good has a ton of catching up to do before he gets anywhere near Flightline’s numbers he at least has given himself a big shot at an upward move. And he’ll need it. Yes, Flightline’s last Thoro-Graph number of negative-8 ½ in the Pacific Classic is the fastest number ever recorded, but he has been given a lot of time between races to recover from that performance. All Life is Good can hope for is a huge move forward and for Flightline to take a major step backwards. There is such a big gap between the two even that might not be enough, but at least has put himself in a position to take advantage of any significant regression by Flightline.
As for the Woodward, let’s just say that Law Professor ran out of his skin, as evidenced by the 10 ½-length gap back to the third horse and the fact that Life is Good had to come home his final three-eighths running on a heavy wet track for the first time in a swift :36 1/5 and final eighth in :12 1/5. You can’t close much faster than that, especially setting all the pace.
So, now he has to go up against Flightline. The last time Life is Good was in a similar showdown was in this year’s Pegasus World Cup when he squared off against the brilliant Horse of the Year Knicks Go, who had decimated his opponents with his early speed. In his previous eight victories he won them all on the lead by an average margin of almost five lengths and defeated the best horses in the country in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. No horse could stay with him early and he went out there controlled the pace each time. But Life is Good possesses such brilliant sprint speed he took it to Knicks Go right from the start. He burst out of the gate, quickly opened a two and then three-length lead in a stiff :46 1/5 and 1:10, and Knicks Go never knew what hit him. He never got close to Life is Good and was beaten 3 ¼ lengths.
What helped Life is Good was not only his natural speed, but the ability to turn it on or off. In the seven-furlong Allen Jerkens Stakes he outran Sprint champion Jackie’s Warrior early off an almost six-month layoff, blazing though fractions of :21 4/5 and :44 flat. In the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile he went in :44 4/5 and 1:08 3/5. That is the only kind of speed that could bring down a horse like Knicks Go and perhaps a horse like Flightline, who has had the luxury of strolling down the stretch in isolated splendor every race. He has no idea what competition looks like once he turns for home. Life is Good’s objective must be to stay with him long enough to look him in the eye down the stretch.
This year Pletcher has been focusing more on having him relax early, knowing he is going to have to go a mile and a quarter. Some of the experts have felt Pletcher has been dulling his main weapon, but it was only three races back in the seven-furlong John Nerud Stakes that Life is Good tore through fractions off :22 and :44 3/5 and drew of to a five-length win in 1:21 3/5. He has already proven he can pull out that hole card anytime he wants. So don’t’ go by his workmanlike victories in the Whitney and Woodward on off tracks. That sprint speed is there whenever Pletcher and jockey Irad Ortiz feel it’s needed. The question is how far can he carry it with Flightline in hot pursuit? Remember, Flightline has won his last two races sitting just off the leader so I wouldn’t expect some torrid speed duel up front.
No, I am not ignoring the other Classic contenders. Epicenter has improved in leaps and bounds and now possesses a lethal closing kick he didn’t show earlier in the year, but his fastest Thoro-Graph number is a negative-1, as is Taiba’s, both in their last start, so it appears at least on the speed sheets that they are not nearly fast enough at this point in their career to beat Flightline and Life is Good. The lightly raced Taiba still has tremendous scope for improvement, and hopefully we will see a major star emerge next year. Olympiad and Hot Rod Charlie are in the same ballpark speed-wise as Life is Good, but I just don’t think they are as talented and would need a pace meltdown to have any chance. The fastest 3-year-old with the exception of Charge It’s negative-4 in his 23-length romp in the Dwyer Stakes actually is Rich Strike with a negative-2 in the Lukas Classic at Churchill Downs against Hot Rod Charlie and other top-class older horses, but as this point it would seem more logical to wait for the Clark Handicap at his favorite track.
So, now we return to the original premise of this column. Can Life is Good beat Flightline in the Classic? I’ll let you know at the quarter pole.
Photos courtesy of New York Racing Association: Janet Garaguso, Dom Napolitano
Racing historian, author, and award-winning retired journalist for the Daily Racing Form and The Blood-Horse, Steve Haskin was inducted into the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame’s Media Roll of Honor in 2016. Known for his racing knowledge and insightful prose, he has been an exclusive contributor to Secretariat.com since 2020.
Few realize that Life is Good was on a record setting pace in the Dubai World Cup over that heavy track. His 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th quarters were the fastest ever recorded in the Dubai World Cup over Meydan’s dirt surface. Life is Good stamped his quality finishing only 2.25 lengths behind the winner after that record pace. Sadly, faced Flightline and took it to him in the Breeders Cup Classic losing all chance to win.
Steve, I had to laugh at your last sentence. Very sneaky. I loved the article, though. Certainly food for thought.
I use the Ragozin sheets and other than the Pacific classic, LIG is every bit as fast as FL! This will easily be the acid test, since FL has caught very soft fields. FL was wide in the PC and stumbled in the Met mile, so depending on the draw, all LIG has to do is use his speed and save a couple paths. On a side note, the -2 FL ran in the PC has bounce all over it, LIG is right at home at Keeneland! Just my take, can’t wait to see it happen, good luck!
Steve,
Just saw this on DRF.COM
Baffert plans to send Defunded and Havnameltdown to Keeneland for stakes later this month, in advance of the Breeders’ Cup weekend.
Defunded, the winner of the Grade 1 Awesome Again Stakes at 1 1/8 miles at Santa Anita on Oct. 1, will start in the Grade 2 Fayette Stakes, a $350,000 race at 1 1/8 miles on Oct. 29.
Hmmm, would he run him back so soon after the Oct 29 race in the BCC I think not?! I think with this move he is just conceding the BCC to Flightline. Must feel there is enough early speed in the race already. My worry here is with Mike Smith and the ride he will give to Taiba. Will he be wanting to press the pace? If so I think he will lose his chance of 3 year old championship to Epicenter. If he does bring DEFUNDED to the Breeders Cup my thinking is it will probably be in the dirt mile. Oh if we only had a Crystal Ball !!!
IMO, even if Taiba finished in front of Epicenter should they both compete in the BCC, Epicenter’s body of work has cemented him being the 3yo champion. His Travers performance was brilliant.
I hope in my opinion and your opinion we can agree to disagree on that.
Works for me. That’s the beauty of opining especially when it involves equine athletes.
Maybe the voters will take into consideration Taiba being not allowed to run in the Travers….NYRA banned BB until 2023, despite no NY issues,, overages, nothing….and you can’t say it had to do with the Churchill ban, because Churchill banned him in 2023, also….Bob can race in NY in 2023…..Taiba has shipped east three times and will head east one more time, if he runs a solid 2nd …I think he could grab the Eclipse…I just think Epicenter will seL the deal, and finish in front of Taiba..
The three year old championship revolves around G1 wins, and win loss record more than where a horse finishes in the Breeders Cup Classic. If Taiba wins the Malibu Stakes he is champion.
I saw Chad Brown interviewed and he said a couple of interesting things. Brown said that Jack Christopher would be cross- entered in the BC Sprint and BC Dirt Mile. It sounded to me like he preferred the Dirt Mile for his horse. Mr. Brown also said that Domestic Spending could be a surprise entrant in the BC Mile off of a 14-month layoff. He likes the way that he has been working. That brings to mind Da Hoss.
People are getting tense awaiting a workout for Life Is Good. I’m not worried……..YET. But, if we don’t see one by the end of this weekend, I’ll be concerned. Maybe I missed a workout.
Methinks fillies divisions…all—older, 3yo, 2yo— are weak this year…..methinks 2yo names are strong—Cave Rock, National Treasure, Forte, Loggins, Blazing Sevens (whom I like)…..methinks War Like Goddess is the real deal at 12 furlongs, needs to be in The Turf….methinks with or without The Freak, the Classic has some top rate horses, but…..this Breeders Cup has only the one star…19 days out, this year reminds me of the Zenyatta Cup—-good races but everyone awaiting the final race, which makes 2022 a great Breeders Cup!
Weakness can sometimes lead to longshots. I’ll keep that in mind. You might be right about the fillies.
Clairiere has been one of my favorite horses and I have to bet on her despite her very disturbing last race at Saratoga. She was all shaken up in the paddock & post parade before going a little crazy in the starting gate. She can bounce back. But, she’s only 1 for 5 at a mile and an eighth which is the distance of the Distaff. Her best distance is a mile and a sixteenth where she is 5 for 9. With Curlin as her sire, maybe the distance is no big deal. Betting with your heart can get you into trouble, but I’d feel really bad if she won the Distaff without me on her.
I respect Taiba, a horse with five starts, four in gr1s….but Epicenter is my pick, as top 3yo, and in a normal year I think Epicenter would show his class in the Classic, earning Horse of the Year, except this is not a normal year, I have seen Flightline run twice, his Malibu blew me away, watching Prat drop the bit and his mount open up like nothing I have seen….then Del Mar, I was standing on a picnic table, at the top of the stretch, there was only three of us, and I yelled YEAH HOOO!, as they went past, and Prat looked over at us, on his way to the finish line, where he was easing him…and yet horse was still widening!
Anapolis wants it firm, if he gets that…count ne in!
Some what sad is the report out of England that King Charles lll is going to phase out Queen Elizabeth’s racing stables. Per the report the phasing out would happen over the course of three years starting with the sale of 12 at auction this year.
Her Majesty had about 100 horses in the Royal Stable including stallions, horses in training and broodmares.
It had been said that her pony Emma would be retired and stay a Windsor. Hopefully that will not change.
Supposedly the King thinks the racing stable is too unprofitable to continue and that phasing it out is part of his plan to downsize the Monarchy.
The9 Monarchy will continue a ceremonial role such as the opening of the Royal Ascot snd so forth.
If this phase out happens it will bring an end to a tradition of the Royal Racing Stable that goes back to the era of Queen Victoria.
Lynda, many go back to James 1 as starting a Royal Racing Stable while discovering Newmarket but royals were racing horses even earlier. Certainly bad news for UK racing, arguably, racing was one of the easiest means by which the Royals could connect with their subjects at a closer more intimate level. Not sure this will boost the support of the Royals as we march through this uncertain century.
Charles might not get such a resounding ovation at Ascot next year.
I just heard they are working The Freak later, than the usual 6:30 next Sat….not light enough….penultimate work should be swift, then on to Keeneland and a smaller work, go if you can, go and see an historic race horse!
Keenland has had mostly spectacular weather so far this meet. Can it hold out for 3 more weeks? I sure hope so.
Is the Dodgers’ epic collapse in the playoffs a bad omen for Flightline in the Breeders Cup Classic? Like Flightline, the Dodgers looked unbeatable after winning 111 games in the regular season. But, their loss to the San Diego Padres, a team that they have dominated for years, is almost mind-boggling and a reminder that anything can happen in sports. I know that most Dodger fans will blame their choking in the playoffs on MLB’s ridiculous new playoff format. The latest in a horrible series of moves and rule changes under the watch of clueless commissioner Ron Manfred. They’ll point to the Phillies, who were awful for most of the regular season, knocking out the Braves and the Yankees on the ropes against Cleveland. But, let’s look at what’s been going on in the Los Angeles area lately. The Lakers were dismal despite having a roster full of Superstars. The Rams won the SuperBowl, but that was last year. This year, both the Rams and Chargers look pretty average so far. Maybe it can be best summed up by the USC Trojan quarterback weeping as he walked off the field in defeat last night in Utah. Losing can be contagious and once it sets in, it can affect everyone. Flightline? Does he get caught up in this plague of losing? We’ll see on November 5th.
Nah. The Dodgers were beat by a ‘hotter’ team….the Padres also beat the 101 win Mets prior in New York….I was glued to 18 inning epic in Seattle.
I thought your omen would be Baaeed..
Never compare racing w/ baseball.
Interesting response from Summer Wind Farm today when asked if Flightline is retiring after the BCC:
No decision has been made about next year. Flightline will stand at Lanes End when his racing career has ended.
Door open just a smidgen maybe that he might be back next year????
A smidgin…..if they planned on running him they would say so….if he wins big I think that is all…if Hronis Bros owned him outright I think they would be sporting….insurance on such a venture must be huge.
Steve, Thanks again for another thought-provoking article. You are the master at that. I think LIG is as good as you get between a mile and 1 1/8. The mile and 1/4 is a different story and as I stated in the past if he is going to win the BCC it will have to be from off the pace (unless the track comes up sloppy or Flightline doesn’t run ). But in the event the track is dry and Flightline runs again I feels he needs to be off the pace to have a chance to win it. I expect DEFUNDED, OLYMPIAD, and HOT ROD CHARLIE going for the lead or near the lead. Flightline has already proven he can go a 1 1/4 in sub 2 minutes and he was slowing down at the end when it happened. So what is it going to take to beat him? 1, He breakdown (God we don’t want that ) 2, He bleeds profusely (it could happen in this non-Lasix era) 3, He doesn’t take to Keeneland track or conditions ( he has run at 3 different tracks and won, but we don’t know if he likes an off track) 4, He gets ill or injured before the race.
LIG has his work cut out for him !!!
In the following :
“Thing I would like to see” department:
Some billionaire (Shaik, Musk, Bezos etc…. ) put up $20 to $25 million for 1 mile (one turn) match race between Flightline and LIG with the winner getting 3/4 of it and the loser 1/4. Maybe this kind of money can entice it.
I could see the race take place on December 26, 2022 at Santa Anita (both horses have won at this track) and can be held right after the Malibu Stakes. Most people will be off that day due to Christmas falling on Sunday and it could be a made for TV (show both races) event. It would be a ratings blockbuster !!!
In the “I don’t get it” department:
I read Eric Reid is trying to get more early speed into Rich Strike. This man just doesn’t know when he got a good thing with Rich Strike as a sure thing , great kick closer. You would think he would have learned from his Belmont and Travers and Lucas Classic Stakes experiences the horse has one run in him. He hung in both the Travers and Lucas Classic Stakes and both of those were 1 1/8 mile. No wonder he has never made it previously to the next tier of training.
In the Luckiest Man Alive department”
Bob Baffert (whether he realizes it or not ) was given a gift when DEFUNDED won the Awesome again stakes and an automatic berth in the BCC. He is in my opinion is making a huge mistake if he doesn’t enter him in the BCC as he will make the pace legit in that race and take pressure off of Taiba and Country Grammar.
In the ” It’s a shame ” (or should it be Sham) department.
Spendthrift Farms announced that after the Breeders Cup that Cyberknife would be going to stud. I think this is unfortunate again, and shows that the owner is not a true sportsman but is in it for the money. Cyberknife could have been (IMO) one of the best horses next year as a 4 year old (as he is one of the top 3, 3 year olds right now) and that is with dodging races next year. Pathetic !!!
Steve, Thanks once again and I hope your weekend is going well !!!
I would be surprised if he didbnt run Defunded as a rabbit and mayb4 hope they pay no atteention to him.
If so Steve, Life is Good has another problem to deal with.
Baaeed and Modern Games were both defeated today. Baaeed running 4th and Modern Games 2nd as the second favorite in his race. We’ll see if either shows up to the Breeders Cup. I know that the connections of Baaeed have said that he won’t come, but today’s disappointment might change their minds.
I think Modern Games is coming, he wants firm turf….Emily Upjohn is going, as well, methinks..
Emily Upjohn was a joyful return to form.
Davids, Coolmore has sold Carrivaggio has been sold to Japan. Wish him the best of luck there.He is one gorgeous stallion. His dapples look like starbursts. I think a while back that we (you and I) discussed that he does not look Scat Daddy.
Lynda, Caravaggio was such a brilliant sprinter, Ryan Moore said he was the best 2 year old he ever sat on. Simply gorgeous horse, have you seen him as a 2 & 3 year old? I suspected he would be moved but was hoping that Australia would be his home. I could have visited. Oh, well, you just became accustomed to things these days. Hopefully, Caravaggio clicks in Japan to bite Coolmoore.
Yes, I have seen his photo, a recent one today.
I followed his racing career and that of No Nay Never as well.
People are upset that Coolmore sold him to Japan without giving him a chance. We really do not have, any turf sires here. As someone posted on another social media site today, most all of our turf sires are either deceased or have sold to other countries or close to bring pensioned.
Also read today that American Pharoah’ s first racing crops are doing well in Australia. That is encouraging.
Also read that Justify is getting 6 months off and will not shuttle. I cannot confirm that however.
Of you recall I mentioned how “rough” AP looked”. Someone visited Ashford and took his photo.
Saw a new photo of Winx and her mini-me today. Once again I was struck by how beautiful she is. She has certainly held her form eventhough retired. She looks like 60 days training and she would be ready to race again.
Yes, I thought the same about Winx’s condition, no doubt part of why she was so successful on the racetrack. I’m watching the races at Caulfield, Caulfield Cup day, and Royal Randwick, The Everest day, live on Channel Seven. One of the 4 major free to air television stations in Australia. They show whole race cards throughout the year but usually every Saturday building up to the Melbourne Cup carnival. That’s why horse racing thrives in Australia, everybody knows something about racing.
Davids Randwick apron is a sea of humanity! I went with Private Eye, he’s a big number over here, as of right now!
You ain’t kidding, about Austrailia! I remember in 7th grade (1971)…My teacher brought some Aussie sports pages to school….front pages had the feature race photo finishes from every track!
Matthew, in 1969 a horse called Big Philou, the hot favorite, was doped prior to the Melbourne Cup. It lead the news for days. Decades later a jockey came out and stated that Big Philou was given manageable doses of heroin to subdue his nervous proclivities.
Mind you, it was not heroin that stopped Big Philou.
Matthew, there were 47, 000 odd at Randwick today. They are expecting over 100,000 for the Melbourne Cup this year but it’s never ‘overcrowded’ like the Kentucky Derby. Melbourne always has much larger crowds than Sydney in anything. Melbourne people attend anything but they are always well behaved.
That’s Flemington, right? Probably the most beautiful turf course in the world! I just watched Baaeed ..covered up nicely, but had to angle out sharply, for a clear path. .but he had 400 yards and just couldn’t do it—perhaps he is more of a miler?
Tranquilizers have been employed for horse’s nerves for a long time, a horse can lose the race in the saddling barn….Affirmed used to look like he was asleep…not saying he was tranquilized, that is how you want your horse, calm!
Yes Matthew, Flemington. Did you hear about the huge storm we had here on Thursday, Flemington has built a huge wall to stop flooding but has hundreds of surrounded houses to be flooded.
Baaeed’s best distance is a mile, often they win the first attempt at 10f but it catches up to them the next time around. His defeat was not a surprise.
Davids I saw photos of the flooded race track. The water was within inches of topping the rail.
I hope everyone was safe and no loss of lives.
Eastern Kentucky had a catastrophic flash flood event back in August that took close to 40 lives,
Unlike hurricanes there is very little warning snd people have little time to evacuate or get to higher ground.
Lynda, there has only been one death thus far, which was in country Victoria. Melbourne is usually safe but the country has never been this wet and the water will come down from NSW next Tuesday which will swell the Murray and it’s tributaries.
Davids you bring up a very good point about Winx. The fact that she was able to hold her form when she was racing was a key asset to her success.
Love Winx!
Davids just curious as to why you suspected that Carravaggio would be moved?
Lynda, Coolmore are ruthless with sires that don’t provide immediate success – numerous stakes winning 2 year olds. Caravaggio has 8 stakes winners, 4 graded, through 2 crops of racing age. With only one Group 1 winner. Those numbers will not sustain the present stud fee. No doubt the numbers going to Carivaggio are dropping accordingly.
Davids, most all of the breeding farms in the US are the same though there are exceptions.
Taylor Made explained it very brutal terms when there was outrage when Chrome was sold to Japan.
Basically a stallion has three years, maybe 4 to prove himself at stud. If his progeny do meet certain profit margin expectations within that period of time, the horse is sold, usually to a foreign country. Some farms will lower the stud fee so as to attract smaller breeders. That is basically what happened with Curlin for example.
Personal opinion of course but computerized nicking is a far cry from the old ways. Sometimes there is a learning curve so to speak as to which stallions nick best with what bloodlines of the mare.
I looked at Carravaggio’s profile page on the Coolmore Ashford site and it would appear that he was being marketed as a turf sire. If you read Terri ‘s comments you will see that the page makes no mention of Holy Bull (his damsire) and that the fee is high at $35k. That $10k higher than his first year at Ashford. 173 mares were bred to him in 2021 with a live foal percentage around 60% which is average, though not as good as some other stsllions. I also looked up the sales price of his progeny and they were just not bringing good prices, mostly medium 5 figures.
I do not know what Coolmore paid for the colt, that info is not available in our American databases.
A lot of people are highly upset about the sale to a Japan. I actually think it is a good thing eventhough I do not like to see our American bred horses sold to other countries.
I will be curious to see how his foal perform in Japan. They might have in mind to add speed their turf racers or they might be thinking about dirt horses. I think and do sysnd to be corrected but I think he is the first Scat Daddy either stallion or colt Kapan has bought and I agree with Terri that having Holy Bull as a damsire influenced their decision.
Will be very curious as to who Japan buys at the year end auctions. Last year they went very high in the bidding to buy some of our retiring mares and fillies and colts.
Someone commented on a FB page that AP has become “unwilling to breed” though they did not cite their source. AP did breed 173 mares in the US in 2021 but do not have the number for 2022. This person also said Justify was not going to shuttle this year.
My opinion is that AP is tired or that might have been sick with one those viruses that horses can come down with like Rhino.
Either one could explain his weight loss, dull coat, loss of condition.
At this point I am somewhat concerned about AP’s fate if his crops do not perform better or if the auction prices start to drop.
It is a dog eat dog business for sure.
Lynda, Holy Bull is at 138 on the Broodmare Sire list with an AEI of only 1.01 to a Comparative Index of 1.28. Now, if Caravaggio had Bernardini as the dam sire Coolmore would be promoting that as an incentive. Advertise what sells.
Lynda King, right you are about Carivaggio. He most looks like his dam’s sire: Holy Bull. Coolmore and Adan O’Brien were wrong about him only being a sprinter. Holy Bull could run any distance and on any surface. When they did his advertisement, there was no mention of Holy Bull. Holy Bull was really not known outside the US because he never ran in the Breeders Cup. And his trainer swore he was drugged prior to the Kentucky Derby. His price at Coolmore was a bargain.
Terri, in certain angles Carrivaggo looks almost identical to Holy Bull.
Japan has been scooping up a number of mares and stallions from the US recently.
Personally think he should do well in Japan.
He is only 15’3 (according to the Ashford web page) which is short for Thoroughbreds and American breeders like the big, tall colts
Lynda King: I even called Coolmore in Kentucky and asked them why they weren’t advertising or listing Caravaggio’s dam sire as Holy Bull. I really think, as that person was British, that he had no idea who Holy Bull was. And he wasn’t going to listen to me.
Pretty sad that they didn’t market him correctly. I was going to contact people who owned a grandson of Holy Bull to see if they were interested in breeding to Caravaggio.
Terri you are right. I went back and looked at his page on the Ashford site and there was no mention of Holy Bull or even TaWee or any of the great bloodlines from Tartan Farms. I was all about Scat Daddy and Carravaggio’s sorunt speed.
The Japanaese are very knowledgeable about the American bloodlines and will no doubt make optimal use of Carravaggio’s.
In my opinion it is a big shortcoming on the part of the American Thoroughbred breeding industry that little or no attention is paid to the dam line. The dam’s pedigree is just as important as the sire’s in my opinion.
Lynda King– Coolmore is a British/Irish company. If an champion American horse didn’t compete in the Breeders Cup or the Triple Crown they don’t know anything about it. They don’t even know why Holy Bull wasn’t entered in the Breeders Cup. (His owner left him and her other horses to her trainer. He would have had to be supplemented to be in the Breeders Cup.) But, the Japanese who bought Caravaggio, knew about his entire pedigree. I’ll bet they watched the videos of Holy Bull’s wonderful races on You Tube.
And it’s sad that it’s so many years since Secretariat died and they still didn’t learn about the importance of the dam and of a great dam sire. Secretariat’s daughters and grand daughters conveyed his talent to their progeny. The last two Triple Crown winners have Storm Cat in their pedigree. And Storm Cat was the son of Terlingua, Secretariat’s daughter. But the Japanese know the importance of Princequillo (Secretariat’s dam sire) in Secretariat’s pedigree and bought Awesome Feather (who has Princequillo in her pedigree).
Oh well. Some people have too much pride and won’t change how they do things. But not the Japanese.
Very well said.
Thanks Lynda and have a good weekend.
Lynda I consider the dam lines as more important than the sire’s…it is not lost on me that Flightline’s color is not of his sire’s, or Secretariat’s two best—Lady’s Secret and Risen Star were both different colors than him…
Flightline is a resounding example of the weight of the dam lines. It is rather unusual to see as many as six (6) dams who are black type/Grade I winners going back to Champion LADY PITT. Even Flightline’s seventh dam (Rock Drill) was a Stakes winner…
A very prolific dam line converging with all their potency in a special Horse…
Flightline is heavily influenced by Phipps breeding on both sides of the pedigree.
Agreed!
Jockey Club report was released today for the number of live foals in 2022.
As compared to 2021 there was a 2.2% decrease which indicates that the trend in declining foal numbers is continuing. There was a 10% decrease in stallion books and decrease in broodmare numbers.
There are some who have been saying for several years now that the trend is a key factor in the short fields and canceled races for lack of entries and there fewer quality horses being trained to race.
I do not know that I necessarily agree with this theory. If any of you recall there was a dramatic downturn in the economy that started in 2008 that lasted through 2014. Stud fees were cut and some farms offered bogo deals to add incentives to breed mares to their stallions. The recovery from that recession was slow and most likely the reason for the continuing decline in foal numbers. Most anyone who has been involved in some aspect of the horse business in the United States will tell you that equine related businesses including Thoroughbreds are first in line to decline as the economy declines and last in line to recover as the economy recovers.
The Covid pandemic that started in the United States in late 2019 and continued through 2021 was the major driving force in a decline in the economy and no doubt resulted in fewer mares being bred. Now we are facing high inflation and a recession. This too has an impact on the equine industry.
As to small fields and canceled races, it is my opinion that Steve nailed it when he made the comment below that lightly raced horses seems to be the new norm.
My opinion is that the racing industry and the sport are shooting themselves in the foot in the long term because the horses are so lightly raced and the end game is the lucrative stud deal for three year olds.
As a lifetime horse owner I can tell you that it is very expensive to own a horse in this current economy. The cost of hay, grain, farriers and veterinary services have skyrocketed in recent months. Hay shortages due to low yield because of weather conditions has compounded the problem. A shortage of large animal (equine vets) has also contributed to rising costs. All of these factors have got to be hurting the small breeding farms and the small stable trainers.
Is the day coming that there will be very few races that will survive in the future, as in the races that offer the big purses like the Breeders Cup, the Triple Crown Races, Santa Anita Derby as examples at just a few tracks; Churchill Downs, Keeneland, Santa Anita etc.
It is just my humble opinion that the trend to lightly race these horses is a very serious issue that might very well eventually be the down fall of the sport in the United States.
Lynda,
Very acute assessment. Like most business nowadays, prices for goods & services continue to escalate to regain revenue lost during the prime pandemic months. Some may call it price gouging, which is particularly true of corporations. Small businesses must tread cautiously on price increases that are necessary for their survival. Especially true of vendors in horse business, as many were struggling prior to Covid. Big fish theory. So many have gritted their teeth for quite a while, as the conglomerate horse operations thrive.
I know several young equine vets who have, or are considering, going into small animal practices. Or show horses.
I read this morning that HISA is investigating the racetrack in West Virginia for violations having to do with vets not in attendance on the track. The small tracks are suffering more under this vet shortage situation because the bigger tracks and the trainers on those tracks pay more than these smaller tracks can pay. The track was not named but one large corporate owned track has 30 vets in their employment. The smaller tracks are having to get by with only a couple of vets on call. The violation as I understand is that a horse broke down in training and there was no vet at the track to euthanize the horse and the horse laid on the track for a couple of hours before the vet could arrive.
We have a similar situation where I live. If there is a crisis involving one of my horses in the middle of the night I may not b s able to get a vet until the next day. In my state the horse owner can euthanize their horse by shooting it. I lnow that sounds horrid but it may be the only choice if the horse is suffering.
No, Lynda, the horror is prolonging their suffering. As you well know. I believe Charles Town had this same issue as Mountaineer a few years ago.
What a difference a week makes. After last Saturday’s spectacular card at Keenland, this Saturday’s card is a real drop off. The 7-horse $600,000 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup is the only Stakes race on the card. Three Claiming races where some of the starters look a little suspicious to say the least. Maybe the Maiden Special Weights will yield something interesting. I guess it was bound to slow down in the last few weeks before the Breeders Cup. There is one horse that I want to mention. Beverly Park is entered in Keenland’s 10th race on Saturday after scratching out of today’s 10th race at Keenland. What’s interesting about Beverly Park is that he has raced in 23 races already this year. This guy runs in almost 3 races a month. There are Harness-horses that don’t run that often. He’s had a pretty good year too. 23 11-5-2 and has earned over $230k racing mostly in Starter Allowance Races. Trainer Norman Cash doesn’t risk him for a Claiming tag. The horse must be fit as a fiddle. And I thought the claiming horses at Gulfstream ran lots of races.
Go east on October 15, to mother England, Ascot becons you…
Some good fields, and large fields, too…
Yes Matthew, and top notch runners t’boot.
The Everest tomorrow night, US….10:15pm Pacific….world’s richest turf race, world’s top rated turf sprinter Nature Strip…..I like 13-1 on Private Eye!..
Royal Randwick, Austrailia….where the top turf sprinters are bred and developed..
That’s true Matthew, their Triple Crown (Golden Slipper Stakes 6f, AJC Sires Produce Stakes 7f, Champagne Stakes 8f) series for 2 year olds spearheaded the advancement of sprinters. There are a series of prep races prior in different states prior to the Golden Slipper Stakes. With dazzling praise money attached to the races involved. I was in Australia in 1970 as a young kid and followed the series intensely. Both colts and fillies take part. I still know the names of about 20 odd I liked at the time. Baguette actually won the Triple Crown in 1970. It was so much fun.
Justamitch has won many races, but many don’t get credited, because they are shorter Los Al races, and Quarter Horses are allowed to compete (but rarely do)…. He has won his last three races…Justamitch is twelve years young .
Concise and accurate analysis of what Life is Good is up against facing Flightline. I greatly admire Life is Good for his speed and consistency. I can’t help but admire Flightline’s brillance but can’t help but question his breaks between races resulting in a so few lifetime starts.
Love Steve’s closing comment….”I’ll let you know at the quarter pole”
Hi,
The race I would love to see would be Flightline vs Baaeed at 1 1/4 miles on Woodbine’s Tapeta track.
That would be a race of the decade in my opinion. The way I designed the race would allow both to perform at a distance each loves on a somewhat-neutral surface. I would limit the size of the field to nine horses so post position would not factor into the strategy or outcome.
In such a race, I would bet on Baaeed. What do you think Steve, Nelson, and the rest of you?
greg (Fan of Damascus . . . and races where the best take on the best)
Maybe Flightline will try turf next year in one of his 3 starts. Relax. I’m only joking. But, I do miss a horse like John Henry who could compete with top-class horses on Dirt or Turf.
The odds have to be pretty good that Flightline’s start in the Breeders Cup Classic on November 5th might be his last. Maybe 50/50 that he races next year?
I’ll say a 25% chance that Flightline races next year.
If he wins big—and I think he will…..I’d say 2% chance he will race next year….but if he LOSES….then I think they WILL run him!…speaking of which…had Knicks Go lost in the Classic, perhaps there would be a 2022 Breeders Cup Classic with Knicks Go and Flightline!
Matthew, I was giving the extra 23% chance (lol) on a feeling that they may go for the Pegasus World Cup Invitational at Gulfstream Park on January 28, 2023 as a farewell to all. I can’t see Flightline traveling to Saudi Arabia or Dubai no matter what.
The Pegasus would/could be the Life Is Good-Flightline match-up that would assuage everybody’s match race wish—Knicks Go owners were game, perhaps the Hronis Bros could convince the other owners to “throw us a bone”, so to speak, if Flightline wins the Classic in a cakewalk…..
If he wins in dominating fashion there will be no reason to run him again other than for our entertainment which would be a bad business decision
Oh, for the days of wealthy owners, who didn’t give a rip about the business side, and just ran them!
Matthew W, I second that emotion!!!
Baaeed’s best distance is actually a mile, he has only tried 10f once. In case you are unaware Baaeed is entered in the Qipco Champion Stakes (British Champions Middle Distance) 1m 1f 212y, this Saturday. Baaeed is expected to win but he’s not a lock at this distance. Adayar could surprise him.
Not sure about your Tapeta race as being a neutral surface, don’t turf runners seem to cope well on it? Conversely, don’t dirt runners lose something on Tapeta? Why not have two races at 9f on both turf and dirt and the winner is the one with the largest margin of victory, averaged out.
Flightline wins by a landslide, for sure.
I like the matchup but like it on a synthetic surface. That proves nothing.
Oops dont like it on a synthetic surface.
Hi Steve, while you are not in favor of a synthetic surface, I feel Baaeed would have a significant advantage on turf, with the same holding true for Flightline on dirt.
If you go one race on turf and one on dirt as Davids suggested (whether 9 furlongs, or 10) I feel we would have two different winners. Total winning margin, as Davids suggested, is not always a true indicator of class if the winning horse is eased or if the place horse is eased should defeat be inevitable.
greg
In that case maybe its not a good idea to try to combine two different worlds. Unfortunately most people in the U.S. dont know much if anything about Baeed as opposed to when Galileo and Giants Causeway came here for the BC Classic. One of the two is going to have to step out of the box and move into the other’s world rathher than run on a surface that both might not like and proves little.
I’m old enough to remember Secretariat and Dahlia, in 1973….and her turn of foot in the Washington DC International, and the “what if” talk…..I saw Dahlia years later, she wasn’t as good as she was, in ’73….but she was still Dahlia, she savaged Caucasus in a race. ..
Hi Greg.
You bring a very enticing and thrilling proposition for all racing fans. It was a bygone era when two prominent owners like those of Seabiscuit (Charles H. Howard) and War Admiral (Samuel D. Riddle) agree to a match for the ages.
I am sure your hypothetical historical match would draw more than the 40,000 people who attended that famous 1938 match race.
By the way, I believe Seabiscuit hold a record of most match races with three. He won all of them with two in track-record time. The first against Treford (August 1936), Ligaroti (carrying 15 pounds less than Seabiscuit’s in August 1938) and the last one defeating War Admiral. You can say that Seabiscuit had way more experience doing matches that the son of Man O’War… it counted a lot … don’t you think?
I respect your faith in Baaeed, however, I believe Flightline would defeat him on any surface and at any distance. I always had this sneaky feeling that Flightline would be even faster on turf, especially after seeing his high action during early training.
In fact, if you check the (international) official ratings assigned to Baaeed and to Flightline, you will see that the son of Tapit is at least 6 points above the Shadwell star.
I am sure we will see another display of Baaeed’s brilliance in the Qipco Champion Stakes at Ascot this Saturday… and if Fligthline gets to the BCC you will see another fantastic performance that will boost your esteem for the bullet-train of the west.
I had to borrow Byron’s words to describe my admiration for Flightline: he is a noble steed “Who looked as though the Speed of thought were in his limbs”…
Seabiscuit vs Ligaroti is the definition of “hard fought”….one of turfdom’s greatest battles .
Apt quote from Byron about Flightline, Nelson!
Hi Nelson
Coming from you and how knowledgeable you are of European racing, that is quite the endorsement for Flightline.
I hope you are doing well and getting ready for winter. We had snow here in Winnipeg. Here we go.
greg (Fan of Damascus)
Someone asked me how good was Spectacular Bid…I said take the 10 best horses since Bid, and throw Bid in the race…and he’s 6/5…..along comes Flightline— very similar, Epicenter and Taiba are solid three year olds, Olympiad and Country Grammer are very good..and Life Is Good is a great miler…..Flightline will be 2/5 against this strong bunch, which makes this race historical..
Tiznow has been pensioned, and turns 26 soon….one of those horses that when he walked past you your body reacted, he had quiet power, in his nature, and you felt it.
Perfectly said.
Hi Steve. As a big fan of Life is Good, your column gave me just a tiny bit of hope that maybe LIG could beat Flightline. Although I think it is highly unlikely, as you point out, in the wacky world of horseracing, anything can happen…and often does.
No 10F horse.
Steve,
I dont disagree with anything you said.. but if he can be beaten absent, injury, may be that he reached his absolute top and has peaked and will go back down, to a degree like Arrogate. Im not saying i think that will happen but it does seem typical of the horses running since the 4 year old year of Spectacular Bid.. l hope he is indeed an atavistic throw back to the horses from the 70s and 60s..i would be very surprised if any horse planned for this race is good enough to beat him anywy, but based on the last 42 years of racing in America, surprised but not shocked.. I hope i am wrong, that he runs back to his last race.. lord knows i need a thrill like i had from 1966 thru 1980
If anything I would say he is not a throwback to the 60s and 70s with 5 starts at age 4, but an example the new norm for this era, which are brilliant horses we never get to know because they hardly ever race.
Steve, that is very profound statement and sadly I have to agree.
That is the sad truth! When I think of a great, or even very good racehorse, I think of horses who race at the prestigious tracks in this country, under all kinds of conditions, and race at least two years. Flightline is amazing, now. I agree with another who posted here that he would not deserve Horse of the Year given his limited number of races.
Skip Away might not have been an all time great…but he was pretty good! 38 starts, only out of the money 4 times….and was a rare horse, in that he could run fast early, yet hold sway late, and at 10 furlongs, too..and he didn’t duck anybody..
They have already addressed the whip problem! Riding crops have been tamped down to a foam snap—you no longer see horses coming back with welts….but HISA is now disqualifying purse monies from all concerned, if the horse gets more than six foam snaps, disqualifying a rider for trying to win! Doesn’t HISA know the sport is wager driven? Doesn’t HISA care about that? Only a matter of time, a Breeders Cup winner will lose their purse.
Hi Steve. I learned so much from this post! Thank you. I loved the focus on racing strategies and hiw Pletcher is likely to train Life Is Good up to the Classic. How would you train confidence into a horse? Are there long-established ways of doing this? I’m quite fascinated by Flightline. It’s always so exciting to watch an individual who seems so exceptional up to this point. What are the chances of his bouncing in the Classic would you say? Abigail
Thanks, Abigail. Pletcher almost always works his horses in company and aways has them finish together at the wire and then they gallop out strongly, so they are used to being eyeballed down the stretch and then let the more superior horse assert himself or herself on the gallop out, Watchh how difficult it is for horses to pass a Pletcher horsein the stretch and how many times the Pletcher horse battles back if passed. It is very rare to see a Pletcher horse quit in a race. He also is terrific getting horses to break fast out of the gate.
Steve, Todd Pletcher has been utilizing Bob Duncan for training his horses in the starting gate. He used to be the head started for NYRA who was recommended to help train Quality Road by the chief, Allen Jerkens. Todd Pletcher then hired Duncan to work with his horses. That’s why Pletcher no longer has any starting gate issues with his horses.
Did I write this to myself? In case I did in my sleep, well, Steve, I know Bobby Duncan very well and he’s a great guy and gtreat starter. He did wonders for Pletcher with Quality Road. Thanks for the comment Steve, it was brilliant.
I couldn’t stop laughing, I saw the post and wondered….so THAT’S where you get your knowledge, of the sport, you have a good mentor—-yourself!
You should see me and myself when we disagree. It can get pretty ugly, and then I have to apologize to myself. Either way somehow I always seem to win every argument.
Giggles
Nothing wrong with channeling your inner “The Jimmy” Seinfeld episode
LOL.
Steve’s getting angry.
I just busted out laughing when I saw this.
Be careful Steve & Steve, we don’t want a repeat performance of “Magic” starring Anthony Hopkins. Both book and screenplay was written by William Goldman. The film was directed by Sir Richard Attenborough. A genuinely disturbing film from the horror genre.
Hi Steve, Excited that the BC is 25 days away. Epicenter was awesome at 1/4 in the Travers and IMO he has a legitimate upset shot to beat the freakishly talented Flightline. I also believe that Taiba also is in with a shot. Baffert believes the 1 1/4 will suit him. Flightline is not the best at getting a good break from the gate, so maybe he will get somewhat of a compromised trip. I’m not sold on Life is Good going 1 1/4, but he surely should challenge Flightline as he is very fast. It will take an epic performance to beat Flightline, but at 3-5, this is horse racing and we have all seen massive upsets before. No horse is a sure winner until they cross the finish line first. Flightline will be facing several top level contenders. Olympiad is very good and certainly is no slouch. We all hope for a dry fast track, but November at Keeneland could mean a sloppy track which could be a curveball for Flightline.
I do not think an off track will beat Flightline, but…his lack of racing COULD get him! Zenyatta lost her final race because she got too far behind, and that was caused by the dirt clod, coming past the wire the first time…had she raced more on dirt she may have been used to it, but by the time they turned into the backstretch she looked like Life at Ten….She had too much to do, but with every stride she was cutting into Blame’s lead…..after Mike stood up on her she practically stopped, having run her best effort.
The lights most likely bothered her, accord to Shirreffs and I agree. Thats why she dropped so far back. Then she hung ever so slightly when she got back in the lights in the stretch.
Agreed!
If FL shows up…..he wins!
Davids just wanted to let you know that it is the Japan Cup that is under consideration for Alpinista. After her last race she will bred to Dubawi.
Thanks Lynda, I had checked both the Racing Post and Sporting Life who stated there was no future entries. It’ll be interesting if she actually goes for the Japan Cup.
Yes, Dubawi is no surprise as he’s 21 next year but still going strong. Hopefully, Siyouni comes into play eventually.
Lynda, I hope you have been hard at work sifting through the race card at Ascot this Saturday. Here’s my picks:
Qipco British Champions Long Distance Cup (Group 2) – Trawlerman – Frankie Dettori magic does it again.
QIPCO British Champions Day – Saturday 15th October 2022 looks spectacular with favorable weather ahead.
Qipco British Champions Sprint Stakes (Group 1) – Tenebrism, at good odds.
Qipco British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes (Group 1) – Sweet Lady, a to upset the favorites.
Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Group 1) – Inspiral, too good.
Qipco Champion Stakes (British Champions Middle Distance) (Group 1) – Baaeed, marches on.
Good luck, will be a fabulous day no matter what. Good luck.
Thank you
“Shoegate” is now before HISA.
Reed has been advised that the HISA board will be in touch with him in a few days.
SMH.
Once again it “appears” that someone did not do their job.
Why were those shoes not checked out in final check before the horses take to the track???
Great article Steve. Thank you..
The following are my opinions.
I think that this year’s Classic is the most anticipated in several years, at least for me.
After reading your column yesterday I watched a replay of Life is Good’s World Cup Race. LIG shot like a rocket out of the gate (an advantage he has over Flightline) and lead most of the way. The beautiful and sadly now deceased Midnight Bourbon challenged LIG and set up the scenario whereby Country Grammer got by him on the rail, Hot Rod Charlie got up for second and Flightline faded back and held onto 4th.
LIG has another advantage over Flightline and that is racing experience. I do not think that one can ever ignore that in a race. The other advantage that I think LIG has (as Steve mentioned in the article) is LIG is a push button horse.
Then there is the matter of weather and track conditions. It is of course entirely possible that there could be rain or even slop on race day. Again advantage Life is Good. However, is that not the test of a true champion, winning on different tracks with varying track conditions at different distances?
The other disadvantage for Flightline is that big target on his back. A lot is riding on this race both HOY and the 3 year old championship. The other trainers will have their horses tweaked and fine tuned as a Daytona 500 stock car. They want to, whether or not they will admit it, want their horse to take Flightline down (not literally of course). And I heartily agree with Steve, stay away from Ortiz and for that matter Leon as well.
Flightline’s biggest advantages of course are his blistering speed, he has won at the distance for the Classic and he runs for the pure joy of running. That was the thing about his race that reminded me the most about Secretariat, he was out there in his own world, just flying down the track with little or no effort.
Someone below mentioned that Flightline reminded them of Ruffian. Will take that a bit further and say that Flightline is the colt that a mating with Ruffian and Secretariat might have produced.
As to the other entries, I agree with what Davids said below, Tiaba has to be ridden. The talent is there, just do not see that the light has come to run his race. Epicenter continues to intrigue me. My thought is that he will be in the 4. Cannot discount Hot Rod Charlie hitting the board either. Charlie showed us in the Lucas that he will dig down when eye to eye.
I truly think Flightline will win the Classic and that we may not have actually seen the bottom of this horse. Once he makes his move there will be no catching him.
Lynda, I’m going to countermand some of your points here. Just to make life more interesting here. Ha ha I would contend that Life is Good’s speed out of the gate, and initial speed to take early positioning are actually advantages, positives if you will. Firstly, shooting out of the gate is going to prevent Jr from ‘disrupting’ Flightline’s natural placing in a race. Secondly, with Life is Good sailing out in front Prat can watch and wait, then pounce, driving right past the hapless Life is Good.
As for a sloppy track, if ever a pedigree should perform well in the slop it’s Flightline’s, on both sides of the pedigree. We’ll give this one a draw. Lol. As for experience, Life is Good goes to the lead, that’s all he does. What’s going to happen to Life is Good should he miss the start and is behind horse early on – sulk??? Flightline showed in the Met Mile that misadventure, early on, is not going to stop the thundering juggernaut whatsoever. Can we say the same about Life is Good, no!!
What we saw in the Dubai World Cup from Life is Good was that Life is Good is full of sunshine and chocolates until he is threatened he folds up like a beach umbrella when the gray clouds come over. Finally, Life is Good has never faced the unrelenting force of a Flightline, ‘good night nurse’?
Summing up here then, it’s Flightline Vs Flightline. The only horse that can beat Flightline is himself, and he has never indicated on doing that.
Why all the insults for Life Is Good? You’ve stated the same opinion over and over, maybe you should get a life.
Davids, one point in your comment back that I disagree with and that is “the only horse that can beat Flightline is himself”.
Ortiz and Leon are not horses, but firmly believe that both of them are reckless riders who bully and intimidate other jockeys and use their mounts to intimidate other horses. They are a danger to themselves, their mounts, other jockeys and other horses.
Neither one would ever be the jockey on my horse. And to take this a step further I am concerned about Nest in the Distaff.
Yes Lynda, I agree with you 100%. I mentioned same below with comment on how the US stewards should be more forthright in discipling jockey’s infractions of the rules. I’ve read numerous times how frustrated followers of racing are by the antics of same jockeys but nothing seems to change the behavior even when suspensions are given out. I remember reading once that the major violator was going to reform himself. That never happened.
In Europe and Australia they have been continuously improving/modifying practices/rules to make racing more relevant to societal expectations. As seen by the Aga Khans’s response to Christophe Soumillon’s recent behavior. Would that happen in the USA? Japan and Hong Kong have always been ahead in some respects.
I applaud the Aga Kahn for taking that action. Perhaps if connections here did the same the number of these incidents would decrease.
The racing authorities here just hand out a slap on the wrist when more drastic measures are needed.
Ortiz got just a few days for his latest infraction that he is to serve after the Keeneland meet has ended.
Lynda, exactly. Lead by example. His brother seems the complete opposite and both were tutored, to some degree, under the guidance of Johnny Velasquez, who is an exemplary model. Mind you, there have been times when an obvious opening was through ‘brotherly love’ rather than serendipity.
Have you had your thinking cap on for the QIPCO British Champions Day this Saturday at Ascot? The weather looks spot on.
Only that it will be Baeed”s last race. Think I am correct about that. Need to spend some time on those races. In the midst of a fall clean up on my little farm. Periodically have to clear out the clutter that seems to accumulate. This is also the time of year when the little towns close to where I live have Fall Festivals. On Saturday I am going to visit an equine services establishment not far from me that has organized trailrides in the fall. Trail riding has always been one of my passions and something that I miss most in my home state of Virginia. Funny thing, did not know that this facility was in the same county where I live until a few months ago. Used to ride most every weekend at a friend’s farm roughly 15 miles from me. She is in a major transitional period in her life and is just basically taking care of her boarders (layups) off the eventing circuit. She went through a messy divorce, her son left for college and then she was her mom’s caregiver for two years before she passed away this past summer. Her mom had a large estate and my friend was her only child and heir so that has all had her attention for quite awhile.
The summers here are hot and very humid and in my case, intolerable. Fall, even the winter months are usually very pleasant and being outside, where I love to be, enjoyable. The Fsrmers Almanac is calling for a wet and colder winter here this year and that means a chance of snow which I love. When we have snow here, they are wet snowfalls that are so pretty.
Have a wonderful time, Lynda. It sounds so peaceful, I miss that tranquility of riding alone. I can totally relate to your friend’s present circumstance. You never think there will be a time when you are ‘alone’ from your familiar past. Loss of parents, close friends and distance from those you once held close. It seems like only yesterday you were in your 20s and 30s, an adult at last. Brash and confident. I’m so pleased I maintained a physical exercise regimen all my life, it keeps you mentally and physically strong.
Flightline enters the Breeders Cup off the shortest break between starts of his 5-race career. Nine weeks. Steve Asmussen’s 3 “big guns”: Epicenter, Clairiere, and Jackie’s Warrior all will be running off of 10-week breaks. Flightline still looks like a “monster” in his workouts. I expect Flightline to be an overwhelming favorite. 2-5 maybe. That makes him un-bettable on the win end for me. I know he’s proven at a mile and a quarter now, but the low odds, time between races going into a mile and a quarter race, and my belief that he will regress off his 2nd best BSF ever run have me looking for an upsetter. I’d love to see Happy Saver win, but he’s just not fast enough. The race would have to collapse for him to get there. He can hit the board though. Taiba is fast and improving, but he will be close to the pace and might get “cooked” by Life Is Good and Flightline. Epicenter will be refreshed, and his new running style might see him running fastest of all at the finish if Life Is Good and Flightline go too fast on the lead and knock each other out. Steve Haskin makes a very good case for Life Is Good being the most likely horse to upset Flightline.
How about a $2 Trifecta Key: Life Is Good over Flightline, Happy Saver, Taiba, and Epicenter. A $24 bet to have a little fun.
That bet could change about 10 times between now and November 5th.
Todd Pletcher seems to know when he can stretch out a horse. Although he’s know for running younger horses, he can equally run older horses as well. He has the most wins at the Donn Handicap which is now the Pegasus World Wide Cup which is 1 1/8 miles. I am hoping that 1 1/4 miles is in Life Is Good’s wheelhouse.
The most impressive win Pletcher had at the Donn Handicap was when Quality Road won several months after the 2009 Breeders Cup. He had had a meltdown at the gate and was scratched from the Breeders Cup (won by Zenyatta). In the 2010 Breeders Cup, Quality Road was unable to run at 1 1/4 miles and he was pulled up by his jockey Johnny V.
We will see what happens in November.
With a slow final time of 2:04-4/5, coupled with the stagger-fest to the wire, in the Dubai World Cup, I wonder if the deep and tiring track was the undoing of LIFE IS GOOD that day?
With such limited data, track variants, running lines and other handicapping figures it’s tough to gauge races in Dubai compared to handicapping published information from US run races. There’s a reliance on who were there and word of mouth. One factor I consider is racing at night, which is when the Dubai races are run. Hollywood Park ran Friday nights during their meets and you’d see crazy form reversals regularly.
…and then there was the unconvincing win by Life is Good in the Woodward Stakes over Law Professor. 10 furlongs please for Life is Good is not the take I gleaned from that exchange.
This is a hugely entertaining read, Steve! I have been Flightlined since before his name first hit the entry box, when rumors of a “super horse” began circulating on the backside, spreading like wildfire throughout the track. As far as potential defeat goes, I fear no horse. But these three things have succeeded in keeping me awake at night: 1) The racings gods. They are notoriously fickle, and enjoy nothing better than a good joke at the expense of humans’ blind trust in the proper order of things; 2) The weather. Why I hate the Breeders’ Cup being held east of the Mississippi. It can be either miserable or glorious. We have yet to see how Flightline will perform on an off-track. It is all in the hands of those aforementioned gods. 3) The antics of some of the opposing riders. We know who they are. Irad Ortiz has already exhibited some of his nastiness, albeit in a mild way, in the Met Mile, and who knows what he or someone like Paco Lopez will get up to in this race worth a boatload of prestge and a barrel of money. If these sound like the rantings of a crazy lady, you are correct. Anytime I am up early enough to see the sunrise, it is a bad day. But I will be rising in the dark and driving the short distance to Santa Anita on the mornings of October 15 and 22, so that I can breathe the same air as this wickedly good horse which has this way come. There may not be another like him in my lifetime, and I just want to be part of his existence for a few ticks of the timer’s clock as he goes flying past.
I would keep Flightline as far away from Ortiz as possible.
That’s for sure.
Amen to that, Steve. The post-draw is going to be nerve-wracking!
“Roller Derby” on horseback? How has it come that a jockey can ‘legally’ affect races by illegal antics?
Down goes the jockey, down goes the horse, down goes the owner, down goes the trainer, down goes the punter. That’s how you stop these thugs.
Steve, isn’t that cynical comment on the US stewards and, probably, most racing fans would agree with you. Shocking really how this has come to be.
I’m going to go too, I’m an hour out, but it will probably be the last time I will get to see him! If he LOSES, maybe they will bring him back….highly unlikely he will lose, note I said LOSE….because nobody can beat him, just watch the Pac Classic, as he’s drawing away—-incredible strides! I’ve seen great Quarter Horses limp into the winners circle, horses like Flightline—put stress on their joints, and tendons…..he probably is sore, after a race….
Steve, after reading your entertaining article perhaps Todd Pletcher will call you up to give Life is Good some pep talks in preparation for the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Ha ha As much as I enjoyed reading your article, the answer to your question: “Life is Good, But Good Enough to Beat Flightline?” is an emphatic “No!!”
As you say, anything can happen in a race but how often does a race have a horse of Flightline’s ability in it? Perhaps, the only chance I can see Flightline losing the Breeders’ Cup Classic is if there is a malfunction at the starting gate. Why Life is Good is not running in the Dirt Mile mystifies me.
Liam’s Map’s owner and trainer saw the logic in running Liam’s Map in the Dirt Mile and not the Breeders’ Cup Classic when up against American Pharoah. The discrepancy of ability between Flightline and Life is Good at 10f is considerably larger than between Liam’s Map and American Pharoah at 10f.
Who was the trainer of Liam’s Map that made the wise fateful choice? None other than, Todd Pletcher. Todd, think back before it’s too late.
To Davids, It’s not always the trainer who decides what race the horse runs in.
Just like the Derby, many owners want to go for the Breeders Cup Classic, when the horse is better off in running the in the Breeders Cup Mile.
That is true Terri, I’m just supposing Life is Good’s best chance of winning at Keeneland is in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile. What a race that could be: Jack Christopher Vs Life is Good. Flightline appears invincible no matter what.
Liam’s Map going in the Dirt Mile and Beholder scratching turned the Classic into a one-horse noncompetitive race.
That’s a fair argument Steve, even so, with Life is Good in the Breeders’ Cup Classic I still see a ‘one-horse noncompetitive race.’
However, Life is Good vs Jack Christopher in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile could be something to behold.
All I ask is that all the horses come home safe and sound.
Individuals complaining regarding how few races FL ran,ignore his issues. He required spaced races…..period!
Flightline loses one of two ways. If he breaks poorly gets shuffled way back and throws in the towel. The other is if its a wet track we have no idea how he’ll run. Otherwise I don’t see it. And even if one of those two things happen LIG in not winning I would say Epicenter
Enjoyable reading, Mr. Steve H.
Life Is Good has a lot of personality, I hope he wins.
Steve, I loved this column and I laughed at the end. The only thing I can say is that it is going to be a hell of a race!
Let’s hope so Suzie but if Life is Good were to run in the Dirt Mile you might see some real fireworks in that race.
Winning the Dirt Mile, especially around two turns, is like the proverbial kissing your sister. How many Dirt Mile winners can you name?
People may be tired of me writing this, but I think they should make the Dirt Mile a Friday race and move the BC Juvenile to Saturday.
Lol, that’s terrible Steve. However, to answer your question, quite a few. Life is Good, Knicks Go, City of Light, Battle of Midway, Tamarkuz, Liam’s Map, Goldencents twice, Tapizar, Caleb’s Posse, Albertus Maximus, and Corinthian.
I named 12 out of a possible of 15. The list is quite impressive, no?
I bet they pay so much attention to each other that somebody else sneaks by and takes it.
Like Rich Strike if he’s running the rail. I hope he goes with high odds again. Hey, if you’re in it, you can win it!
Thanks for this analysis Steve. It will be fun to watch. Any chance of a closer if there’s a meltdown?
If Epicenter takes back it could be him
He did 1:59 in a jog! If he melts down, he’ll melt down too 1:59.5 LOL
Being clear, LIG is no 10f horse!
Yes, the 10fDubai World Cup result framed Life is Good’s distance limitations. Country Grammer and Hot Rod Charlie ran right past the 2-5 prohibitive favorite Life is Good. Considering, the almost 20 length walloping Flightline gave Country Grammer in the Pacific Classic only a month ago the chances of Life is Good defeating Flightline are as good as finding life on Mars.
Agreed! Kudos David!
I agree that Flightline can be beaten. It may not be by Life is Good but by other horses. I see Flightline as vulnerable because he has been so lightly raced, and his trainer has refused to run him if he is not at 100% fitness. But there’s a reason why horse racing is a sport. If you pick and choose your spots too much, or only run in optimal conditions, it really takes the excitement out of racing. Flightline is a nice horse, but I would not put him in the same breath with Secretariat, Seattle Slew, Spectacular Bid, Affirmed, John Henry, or Kelso. None of these horses were unbeaten, but each one consistently performed at the top of their game over multiple seasons, and showed courage and grit even when they lost. You don’t get to join the pantheon of greats without actually fighting the battles!!!!
Good luck! FL for home run! He’s REAL DEAL!!!
Elizabeth Tobey, you put into words exactly what I think about Flightline. Thank you. Dr. Fager or Secretariat would have inhaled Flightline. Five races does not a “great” horse make, impressive as they were. Great means at least a two year body of work over numerous tracks, conditions, competitive fields, and setting track/race/world records which stand for decades.
Flightline could be “Horse of the Year” with only 3 well-spaced starts in 2020.
If Flightline’s already spoken of as “Horse of the Century” isn’t “Horse of the Year” an automatic given?
Completely agree, that it’s probable tge “ plan” for Life’s Goid was to just win The Woodward, but unless Flightline turns in a unimaginably poor performance, I can’t see him not winning The Classic, despite Todd Pletcher’s experience as a masterful tactician. I also think ginning up some competition between these two horses draws some more interest, but Flightline appears to be a horse from another time
BTW, the pre-entries, order of races, and post times will be announced on Wednesday, 10-26. Then we can get down to business.
In my opinion, the only thing wrong with Life Is Good’s race in the Woodward was the ride he was given. The jockey went to sleep on him, or so it seemed. If he is going to win the Classic, it will be because he separates himself from the field, uses his brilliant speed from the start, and runs away from his opposition down the stretch. That tactic may be the only way to beat every horse in the race. But if Flightline runs his race, Life Is Good will only be good enough for 2nd place and the purse money second place awards. I hope it is a race we will talk about for the next 50 years.
Let’s see, Rich Strike likes Churchill and Kentucky. Epicenter runs everywhere and his style has changed from go to the front as he did in Louisiana to a stalker. Life is Good is proven quality. And Flightline runs big in California and beats nothing except Country Grammar. Could Flightline be a horse for California’s racetracks? I’ve back Epicenter all year and am not ready to change.
An “off” track could change everything. John Sadler might be best served by having Flightline’s final workout being over the Keenland track. I really wonder if Flightline has ever felt a single drop of rain?
Flightline’s pedigree appears well suited for an off-track. What if Flightline is actually even better on an off-track? Choc horreur!!
Debbie – Flightline already prooved he can win outside SoCal….He won the Met
Should be Met Mile.
Who has Epicenter beat? Absolutely no one… the main threat for 2nd place will be Tiaba. He’s better than Epicenter. LIG won’t win at a 1/4 his sire can’t will limit him. LIG will fold with a 1/8 mile to go. Tiaba will make a run but will be numerous lengths behind FL. I sure hope connections of FL will let him run next year.
I do fully expect Flightline to regress off of his huge BSF that he ran at Del Mar and the -8 1/2 Thoro-Graph number in the same race. Could Life Is Good and Flightline meet somewhere in the middle at around a 117 BSF? It would be a career best for Life Is Good. But, maybe he’s been well prepped to fire his career best shot in the BC Classic. I say a 117 BSF because I read somewhere, maybe here, that Ghostzapper ran a 117 BSF in his next race after he had recorded the fasted BSF ever recorded. Steve Haskin has talked me into using both horses in my multi-race wagers. Like Steve Haskin said, I’ll let you know how I feel about it at the quarter pole.
I really want to see the kind of workouts that Todd Pletcher puts into Life Is Good the next 3 weeks. I want to see some longer works.
5-furlong, 6-furlong, or even a one mile work. Not to dull his speed, but to stretch that speed to a mile and a quarter. He’ll need the race of his life on November 5th.
Using the favorite and 2nd favorite on the same multi-race ticket goes against my philosophy of constructing such bets. Flightline will be such a heavy favorite that he will be “singled” on 95% or more of the tickets. But, if a bettor can find someone, anyone, that can beat Flightline, it could lead to a huge payout. “Singling” Life Is Good may sound crazy as of today, but that could be my play. Still 3 weeks to figure it out.
Unfortunately, Pegasus is otherwise engaged then you would have a some odds to play with.
For LIG you will see 5 furlongs but you won’t see 6 or 7 furlongs that is not TP MO. Best chance for LIG is off the pace.
Would love owing him,however his wheel house is less ground.
Excellent thinking points, Steve! This is why the first weekend in November is our favorite time of the year for horse racing. I can’t wait for this match-up!!
I just don’t see how LIG can stick with Flightline past the far turn. But that’s what they run the race…
On paper….no, obviously. But that’s why they run the race, play the game or fight the fight. Still remember Arrogate falling flat in the San Diego Handicap at 1-20.
Actually, I believe Flightline’s biggest threat will come from Taiba….but that’s just me and I’m just looking at things on paper (DRF).
I think Taiba has the most room for improvement, but he will need to improve a lot. With Baffert they often can do that in the big races.
I agree Steve. I don’t think there is time to do that now. Tabia from what I see needs long rest periods. He ran the Kentucky Derby . His next race was the Haskell then the Pennsylvania Derby. I think Life is Good and Flightline will set the pace. Flightline will melt him down but it will take some of his energy. One of the closers will stay close to the pace and take advantage of this. Rich Strike is the fastest. They finally utilized that in the Lukas. Slip of the saddle foul or not he would have won. Yes he loves CHURCHILL but he proved in the Travers he has great ability on a different track. He also proved in the Lukas he doesn’t need the rail the whole time. He comes from behind he is great on the rail he weaves without getting blocked he has a great burst of speed like he did in his maiden win and wants to win. After his huge run in the Kentucky Derby at the end of the race he acted like he still had energy to keep running besides trying to beat the outrider. He already beat a huge field of great horses with unbelievable style in the Kentucky Derby so if Flightline is his only nemesis then a strong second will be more than worthy that day. A first is possible. I know the Clark would be the easier win but why not the Breeders Cup ? He has all of next year to do that. The full year for a fresh start. He proved he wasn’t a fluke. The excitement is back. If he looses I don’t think he will lose bad. Every horse will be great in this race. They will all have a hard time against Flightline. They already got Rich Strike to run on the outside and in the center. He was strong in the Travers so he is on his way to excelling at different tracks. His combination of being a closer and speed ability along with the rail outside down the middle and the fight to win is dangerous. He also has no problem with the weather change. Flightline reminds me of Ruffian. He is a front runner who finishes by a lot of lengths. He proved he can settle. Can he overcome another frontrunner ? If he beats Life is Good it will still take some of his energy. How’s about a bad gate or being blocked ? Or the weather ? This is also the strongest field he will be up against.
I tend to agree that Taiba, as well as Country Grammer, are Flightline’s major threats, if any. What concerns me about Taiba is that he is, supposedly by jockey comment, the type that needs to be ‘ridden’ throughout the race to ensure connectedness with the leading pack.
Would the ‘expected’ very fast run race in the Breeders’ Cup Classic be a positive or negative for a horse with the above racing style that Taiba has? I’m not sure either way.
David how is Country Grammer a threat to FLIGHTLINE? He smoked him in the Pacific. He also got beat in the Saudi by a Longshot closer
Christine, did you miss the “if any” in the first sentence? Well, Country Grammer defeated both Hot Rod Charlie and Life is Good in the Dubai World Cup at 10f and BB thinks Country Grammer’s best distance is 12f so at least 10f is not a hard task for him. As I said initially, it’s very hard to think of any horse as being a threat but someone has to come second, third, fourth…
Get a hat, put the names in, then pull the names out…
Hi David I just saw your reply. I know what your saying. The last 2 years speed horses won AUTHENTIC and KNICKS GO. TIZ THE LAW had a great chance to beat him like he did with UNCLE CHUCK in the Travers but his jockey put him on the rail which he dislikes and then uses up his energy battling MAXIMUM SECURITY who I think was burned out in that race after winning the PACIFIC and racing IMPROBALE. I love KNICKS GO but everyone said he was unbeatable if he is racing on a two turn. ESSENTIAL QUALITY HOT ROD MIDNIGHT BOURBON and MEDINA SPIRIT were my favorites. I think MEDINA and HOT ROD were held back to insure a place or a show in the Breeders Cup. I still can’t understand why Louis put ESSENTIAL QUALITY on the rail which he had never done before. Two bad trips cost him a chance to win 2 of the biggest races.. I know the Kentucky Derby was not his fault.. Sorry but going back to KNICKS GO my prediction was LIFE IS GOOD could beat KNICK GO because both matched well in the BREEDERS CUP DIRT MILE. He beats him in the Pegasus but I expected a dual and because KNICKS got blocked coming out of the gait he comes up second. As we say anything can happen..RICH STRIKE IS A CLOSER BUT HE ALSO HAS A STRONG BURST OF SPEED AT THE END. He is great on the rail but now proved in the TRAVERS AND LUKAS he has no problem with the middle and the outside. Look at the energy he at the end of the Kentucky Derby. I will now end my prediction in comparison to the almost triple crowns that I believe all of them had bad luck in each race.. This could happen to FLIGHTLINE. If he loses I don’t want that but by a better horse.. I don’t think LIFE IS GOOD will beat him but he will tire him. The stalkers will stay close to beat him or get 2ND or 3rd.. In the DUBAI I don’t think it was the distance I think MIDNIGHT BOURBON ran hard with him and tired him while HOT ROD CHARLIE AND COUNTRY GRAMMER STALKED. Look how MIDNIGHT BOURBON ran in the TRAVERS last year. My favorites for Speed is FLIGHTLINE and LIFE IS GOOD and for closers RICH STRIKE and HOT ROD CHARLIE. I know I should add COUNTRY GRAMMER and EPICENTER but they are not my choices.
Yes Christine, Luis Saez’s ride on Essential Quality in the Breeders’ Cup Classic mystified me as well, perhaps he was thinking about the Derby result – having lost too much ground to win. That was so distressing reading that Midnight Bourbon had passed, he tried every time and you’re right he intimidated Life is Good throughout.
That’s what I believe Flightline will do, hound Life is Good for a mile then put on the afterburners and sail away to a significant win, making a statement.
Good read Mr. Hskin.