On the Derby Trail: A Test, a Risk and a Tactic
With the first Derby Rankings and the third Future Wager coming up, let’s take a close look at two proven stakes winners — Litmus Test and Strategic Risk — and see how they got to where they are. Unlike many of the exciting, but inexperienced, colts about to step up in class and make a name for themselves, these two have already proven to be tough, battle-tested competitors with a strong racing foundation, with one of them having as strong a classic pedigree as we’ve seen in a long time. We are also tossing in Silent Tactic — another colt who is lightly raced, but has shown a great deal in his two stakes appearances. ~ Steve Haskin
On the Derby Trail: A Test, a Risk, and a Tactic
By Steve Haskin
The Test
At this time, Bob Baffert considers LITMUS TEST his best hope for the Kentucky Derby, and feeling so strongly about the colt, he said he wants to put him “in bubble wrap” and run him only twice before the Kentucky Derby. The son of Nyquist has plenty of bottom, having already run five times from 5 1/2 furlongs to 1 1/16 miles, three of them in Grade 1 stakes and one in a Grade 2 stakes, and never finishing off the board. He saved the best for last, winning the Grade 2 Los Alamitos Futurity. He had already proved he could compete with the best 2-year-olds in the country when he was beaten only 1 3/4 lengths by the likely champion Ted Noffey in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at odds of 21-1 after traveling cross-country and finishing third to him in the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland.
Litmus Test winning the Dec. 13 Los Alamitos Futurity.
From the second Litmus Test was born, he had his breeders, Carrie and Craig Brogden, thinking this could be the one; the one all breeders dream of. As owners of Machmer Hall Farm in Kentucky, the Brogdens have either bred, purchased, sold, or foaled and raised numerous top-class horses such as Hall of Famer and two-time champion Tepin, Preakness winner Rombauer, two-time Dubai Golden Shaheen winner Mind Your Biscuits, Premium Tap, Flat Out and many others. But it didn’t take long for them to believe they might have a special classic-type horse in this strapping Nyquist colt, out of Study Hard, a filly they purchased as a yearling for $100,000.
Study Hard proved to be totally ineffective in her brief career as a racehorse, never getting closer than 18 lengths in her three starts. But the Brogdens knew when they bought her she had X-rays that prevented her from selling for what they thought she was worth. She was a full-sister to a graded stakes winner and Carrie was very familiar with her family. After her three dismal performances she came out of a breeze with soreness in the same front ankle that hampered her at the sale.
Study Hard, despite her failure on the racetrack, was special to the Brogdens, having been named in homage to Machmer Hall. Carrie’s great-grandfather was dean at the University of Massachusetts and her mother’s family had always stressed the importance of education, hence the name Study Hard. The Brogdens have had good luck at stud with fillies who either were unraced or couldn’t run a lick, but had the physical tools, as Study Hard did. When they bred her to Nyquist, his stud fee was only $55,000 unlike his current fee of $175,000.
When Study Hard gave birth to this grand-looking 146-pound foal, Craig, who is in charge of the mares and foals, texted Carrie a photo of him, with one word: “Wowza!”
“He was born special,” Carrie said. “He was exceptional from the moment he stood up for the first time.”
He continued to develop into a handsome yearling and Carrie, who is in charge of the yearlings, had high hopes as he headed to Saratoga for the Fasig-Tipton yearling sale. “When he was walking up the ramp to get on the van, my brain said myself, ‘Well, well, well, I think we might impress Baffert with this colt and have a potential superstar in his program.’ I mean it was as if I knew when we put him on the van who his target audience would be because he not only had the physicality, but the mentality.”
Litmus Test as a yearling at Machmer Hall Farm.
What was encouraging in the days leading up to the sale were the number of veterinarians who vetted him, two of whom worked for Baffert’s team and the team of Chad Brown and Mike and Mary Ryan. Mike Ryan had bought Nyquist as a yearling for $230,000, in partnership with Niall Brennan and Marc Keller, with Brennan then consigning him to the Fasig-Tipton 2-year-old sale, where he was sold to Paul Reddam for $400,000, with his bloodstock agent Dennis O’Neill just sneaking in over their $399,000 reserve.
Mike Ryan had a chance now to get a magnificent-looking son of Nyquist, who passed every one of Ryan’s stern tests with flying colors. Ryan would take a first look at the yearlings and mark his initial comments in his catalog in blue, orange, and green. Then when he returned to take his final look he would mark the comments in black and circle the more important ones.
The first time he saw the Nyquist colt, selling as Hip #173, he rated him an 8 to 8 1/2 out of 10, which Ryan said was a very high score, as he seldom ever has given a horse a 9. He marked down on the catalog page in his own abbreviations “Outstanding…Very strong powerful colt…Very well grown…Plenty of muscle bone and substance…Very good feel….1 1/8 miles to 1 1/4 miles” He also wrote down his expected price ($550,000).
Then when he returned to make his final inspection, things had changed. Now writing in black, the first thing he wrote were two powerful words you don’t often, if ever, see in a yearling sales catalog — “Ky Derby” and underlined it. He added, “Awesome mover…Stone runner…Carries himself well…Light on his feet…Very very good feel.”
He also marked down his final rating, giving him five stars, which is the top of his list.
The colt reminded him of Nyquist in many ways and he told the two partners for whom he was buying, Jeff Drown and Don Rachel, it probably was going to take $750,000 to get him. He said to them, “It looks like it’s us and SF Stable (and their main partners Starlight Racing, and Madaket Stables, along with six other partners). These are Baffert’s longtime owners, with bloodstock agent Donato Lanni doing the bidding.
The SF/Starlight/Makadet partnership, which had been extremely successful over the years, had purchased a number of yearlings by big-name stallions, such as Into Mischief and Quality Road, and they knew there would be a lot of money being poured in on their preferred stallions that year and they needed to look for value in other places.
“The Nyquist — Study Hard colt came onto our radar and Donato and Bob really liked him,” said Gregg Slager, a partner in SF Stable for some seven years.
As expected, the bidding on the colt kept kept climbing. After $500,000 it was just between Lanni and Ryan, who finally quit at $850,000. “When they want a horse it’s tough beating them,” Ryan said. “I’m sure they would have gone to a million” Near the bottom of the colt’s indecipherable catalog page, Ryan made his final comment, one he wishes he didn’t have to make. It simply said, “We were under bidder.”
Saratoga yearling sales catalog page with inscriptions by Mike Ryan.
When the gavel came down and the partnership had their first Nyquist, Slager said to Tom Ryan (no relation to Mike), managing partner of SF Bloodstock and racing manager of SF Racing, “This will be a real litmus test as to whether a Nyquist will work in our program.”
According to Slager, Ryan’s “ears perked up and he said, ‘That’s a winner. We have our Litmus Test.'”
Carrie Brogden said she was “gob smacked” with the price and was thrilled that it was Baffert who got him. She no doubt will be listening to her brain the next time it talks to her. “It was so exciting to have two unbelievable programs vie for him,” she said. “We recently had a homebred filly, Search Results, win six graded stakes and run second in the Kentucky Oaks for Chad, while earning almost $2 million, and Mike of course had bought Nyquist, so I was hoping that one of the programs would like him, and it was extremely gratifying that they both saw what we always saw in him.
“I cannot express what an honor it is to have top horsemen and trainers like and buy the horses you breed and sell; it is an extraordinary feeling.”
Now, a year and a half later, Nysos, another son of Nyquist, is a finalist for champion older horse and champion sprinter, and Litmus Test still is just that, as he attempts to give his sire his first classic winner.
Ironically, Nyquist has another promising 3-year-old colt this year named Iron Honor, who is trained by Chad Brown, and whose dam, Orencia, was purchased for a client at the 2024 Keeneland January mixed sale by Carrie Brogden. Carrie also bought the dam (A Taste of Red) of Baffert’s undefeated 2025 stakes winner Boyd, who also may wind up on the Derby trail. And in another connection, Carrie won a small stakes in 2020 as co-owner of Streak of Luck, the dam of Ted Noffey, who has twice defeated Litmus Test in Grade 1 stakes.
As we head into the 2026 Derby trail, Baffert has loosened Litmus Test’s bubble wrap just a bit to keep him sharp, working him a half in :47 4/5 on January 9. If he should go on to capture the roses on the first Saturday in May I’m sure Mike Ryan could get a pretty penny for a framed original of his van Gogh-like catalog page with it’s bright colors and those two bold words in black — Ky Derby.
Taking a Risk on the Derby Trail
Could it be that a 2026 Kentucky Derby contender not only has the best breeding ever of any Florida-bred pointing for the first Saturday in May, but arguably the best breeding of any Derby horse, period? Yes, even those bred in Kentucky. Before we delve deep into the background of recent Smarty Jones Stakes winner STRATEGIC RISK, let’s look at his pedigree, and see if we can name another horse who has a pedigree with more classic influences and is better suited to a mile and a quarter. And we will add the fact that his sire, after standing at Ocala Stud for a $3,000 stud fee in 2023, was sold to Saudi Arabian interests in October of 2024 for $34,000.
Strategic Risk winning the Jan. 3 Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park.
We will start with an overview and then break it down. In Strategic Risk’s second, third, and fourth generations are the winners of four Belmont Stakes, three Kentucky Derbys, two Preaknesses, four Breeders’ Cup Classics, and two Travers, as well as six champions.
His two grandsires are Birdstone (Belmont and Travers) and Afleet Alex (Belmont and Preakness, and champion 3-year-old).
Three of his four great-grandsires are Grindstone (Kentucky Derby), Tiznow (two Breeders’ Cup Classics, and Horse of the Year, champion 3-year-old, and champion older horse), and A.P. Indy (Belmont and Breeders’ Cup Classic, and Horse of the Year and champion 3-year-old).
And among his great-great grandsires are Unbridled (Kentucky Derby and Breeders’ Cup Classic, and champion 3-year-old), Chief’s Crown (Travers, and champion 2-year-old), Seatlle Slew (Kentucky Derby, Preakness, and Belmont, and Horse of the Year, champion 2-year-old, 3-year-old, and older male), and we’ll add Hawkster (world-record holder for 1 1/2 miles).
Not to forget his all-important tail-female line, his third dam Educated Risk earned over $1.1 million and is a half-sister to Hall of Famer Inside Information, champion older mare, earner of $1.6 million, and winner of the Breeders’ Cup Distaff by 13 1/2 lengths. Their dam Pure Profit is by champion 3-year-old Key to the Mint, a Travers, Whitney, and Woodward-winning son of classic sire Graustark (by Ribot), out of Clear Ceiling, winner of the English 1,000 Guineas and a sister to nine stakes winners, being out of the great Phipps family producer Grey Flight, who in addition to her nine stakes winners is the granddam of champions Bold Lad, Sucessor, and Kentucky Derby winner Foolish Pleasure.
A final point of interest is that Strategic Risk traces to Fappiano through Unbridled, Grindstone, Birdstone, and Noble Bird, who did win the Stephen Foster and three other stakes. Others who trace to Fappiano, mostly through his male line, are. American Pharoah, Arrogate, Tapit, Empire Maker, Sovereignty, Cody’s Wish, Fierceness, Flightlne, Essential Quality, Mindframe, Unbridled’s Song, White Abarrio, Liam’s Map, Pioneerof the Nile, Arcangelo, Seize the Grey, Straight No Chaser. and current stars Ted Noffey, Nysos, Napoleon Solo, Intrepido among others.
Strategic Risk, out of the unraced mare Strategize, was bred by John Oxley, and it is interesting to note that this year’s Kentucky Derby will be the 25th annivesary of the victory by the Oxley owned and bred Monarchos, who became only the second horse, along with Secretariat, to win the Derby in under 2:00.
Strategic Risk was foaled and broken and received his early training at Ocala Stud, as was the recently retired champion Fierceness. David O’Farrell, co-owner of Ocala Stud, remembers him “a beautiful colt and all class.” He added, “We loved him all along, and Mr. Oxley wanted to point him to a 2-year-old sale.”
He was consigned to the Ocala Breeders March 2-year-old sale and worked really well, but it soon became apparent he might be too good to sell. “The buyers loved him, including (trainer) Mark Casse, and everyone was probably thinking that, with him being by Noble Bird, they were going to steal him. I told Mr. Oxley that he was a nice enough colt that he should just keep him.”
Mark Casse also stepped in and echoed O’Farrell’s advice. He had trained Strategic Risk’s full-sister, Strategic Bird, who had sold as a yearling at Ocala for a meager $2,000. She managed to win a couple of small stakes at Mahoning Valley and Tampa Bay Downs,
“Strategic Risk looked nothing at all like his sister,” Casse said. “He was a long lengthy colt who looked like he’d run all day and I really liked the way he worked and would have tried to buy him. But instead I told Mr. Oxley, ‘This is a really good horse; you should keep him and give him to me to train.”
Oxley listenened to him and O’Farrell and had him withdrawn from the sale. He was sent to Casse, who said he showed a lot early on, winning his career debut by 8 1/4 lengths at Gulfstream on June 7.
“We shipped him to Saratoga and he just didn’t do well there,” Casse said. “He never ever trained the way he trained in Florida and was struggling over that track.”
He made his next start in the Sanford Stakes and was well regarded at 5-1, but still didn’t handle the track and finished fourth, beaten over 16 lengths. Casse tried breezing him on the grass and liked the way he went, so he ran him in the With Anticipation Stakes on turf on closing weekend and he again was well-beaten. For some reason he had gone stale in Saratoga, so Casse called Oxley and told him he needed to give him a break to get back to his early form when he romped first time out at Gulfstream and looked like he could be special.
“I sent him back to Ocala Stud just to freshen him up and when I got him back and breezed him, I said. ‘There he is; that’s the horse we’ve been waiting on.’ But I rushed him back too soon in the Affirmed (division of the Florida Sire series), dropping him back to seven furlongs and he finished third.”
But the wait was officially over when Casse stretched him back out to 1 1/16 miles in the In Reality divisioin and he romped by nine lengths. Rather than drop him back to one turn in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes at a mile at Gulfstream he shipped him to Oaklawn Park for the 1 1/16-mile Smarty Jones Stakes on January 3 against several promising colts, including the Kenny McPeek-trained Universe. The son of Global Campaign was coming off a fast-closing second in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes to Further Ado, a second in the Street Sense Stakes to Incredibolt, and third in the Champagne Stakes to Napoleon Solo, all early Derby contenders.
Sent off at 5-2, he pressed a dawdling pace and when Javier Castellano asked him at the top of the stretch he was gone in a flash. Even with the slow pace, coming home in :24 flat and :06 flat was very impressive and made him virtually impossible to catch, as he won comfortably by 4 1/2 lengths, leaving the favored Universe 11 lengths back, and then continued to open up on the gallop-out.
Casse was happy to see him handle the Oaklawn surface so well, and will now point him for the Southwest Stakes. But when he gets in the gate on January 31, he will have an interesting opponent joining him once again.
Casse’s Southwest Tactic Has to be Admired
Trainer Kenny McPeek said Universe’s disappointing performance in the Smarty Jones was the result of a snail-like pace. But what may have gone unnoticed by many was the fact that the Smarty Jones runner-up SILENT TACTIC came from farther back than Universe to finish second, while making his dirt debut, and did not have the best of trips, having to steady on the backstretch and then fan six-wide turning for home.
Well, Silent Tactic, who won his debut over Woodbine’s Tapeta surface and then finished a strong second in the 1 1/16-mile Grey Stakes, is also trained by Mark Casse, who will now separate the two horses, which seems logical, right? Wrong. Casse, unlike many trainers, does not have Derby points fever and feel he has to go looking for them. He has two horses who both took a big move forward on the Derby trail and who both obviously like the Oaklawn track. And both are owned by John Oxley, which would seem to make separating them even more logical. But not for an old school trainer like Casse.
“I’m just looking to do what’s best for each horse,” Casse said. “The Southwest fits both of them and they’ll both run there. I don’t know how Silent Tactic finished second in the Smarty Jones off that slow pace and a speed-favoring track. And if you look at the drone shot you can see that he clipped heels two or three times. Add to that, this was his first time on dirt. I like racing at Oaklawn, especially having had success there last year with (Arkansas Derby winner) Sandman.”
Silent Tactic is by Tapit’s son Tacitus, out of a Gun Runner mare, so he will provide a good gauge on each stallion, one as a sire and the other as a broodmare sire. For those who don’t remember much about Tacitus other than he lost a number of big races, he did win the Wood Memorial, Tampa Bay Derby, and Suburban Handicap and placed in the Kentucky Derby, Belmont, Travers, Jim Dandy, and Jockey Club Gold Cup twice.
It was Casse’s son Justin who bought Silent Tactic for Oxley at the Ocala Breeders’ April 2-year-old sale for $500,000, only six months after selling at the Fasig-Tipton Kentucky October yearling sale for only $60,000. That is about as fast as you can make a $440,000 profit in the bloodstock business, suggesting that Silent Tactic made amazing strides during those six months.
Silent Tactic in a recent gallop at Oaklawn.
“He worked very well at the sale and is a handsome horse,” Mark Casse said. “The reason I sent him to Woodbine was he had no speed and I knew he would like the Tapeta surface because that’s what he worked over at OBS. I also thought it would be one of the first places to get a two-turn race.”
He was right. He found a 1 1/16-mile maiden race on October 10, and Silent Tactic had no trouble charging home in the final sixteenth to win by two lengths. Casse ran him right back only three weeks later in the Grade 3 Grey Stakes, also at 1 1/16 miles, and he again closed strongly, but came up short by three-quarters of a length. His subsequent second-place finish in the Smarty Jones over a new surface was a big step forward against top-quality horses.
So, a salute to Mark Casse and his “let the best horse win” and “run them where they belong” philosophy, and his faith in both colts that they will use the Southwest as a prep to bigger and better things.
Stay tuned for the initial release of the 2026 Derby Rankings – coming Wednesday, Jan. 21!
Photos courtesy of Churchill Downs, Benoit Photo, Mike Ryan, Kara West/Cody Media and Mark Casse.
Racing historian, author, and award-winning retired journalist for the Daily Racing Form and The Blood-Horse, Steve Haskin was inducted into the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame’s Media Roll of Honor in 2016. Known for his racing knowledge and insightful prose, he has been an exclusive contributor to Secretariat.com since 2020.
My thoughts on the Lecomte Stakes
First of all congrats the Cherie De Vaux and her two horses Golden Tempo and Mesquite on winning and placing in the race. Although it was a race you wouldn’t write home about someone had to win it. The time of the race was slow but I the the deep and tiring track had more to do with that. I think all the horses that ran near the frontend at the beginning of the race should improve immensely off of this race. Carson Street and Chip Honcho both to me ran a hell of a race in fact if they came out of race not overly tired I would think seriously about putting them on a plane to California and run in the Robert Lewis Stakes on Jan 31st. I kid you not, the race is a two turn mile and the racing surface should be lightening fast compared to what they ran on in the Lecomte. I think Baffert would be vulnerable in this race as horses I think he will be entering in this race have not had a started a race in the last two months. I think either one of them could win it and pick up KD points. Of course this is all wishful thinking as this is not horse racing from 25 years ago. Except for the first 2 finishers not sure if any of the other horses are KD caliber. Stop the Car unfortunately was a victim of the deep track. I wish the jockey had held him back more at the beginning of the race and had come with one big run. And Brad Cox ???? White Tiger and Thunder Buck they are bred to be better than that….. didn’t like the track? Too many unknowns from this group going forward.
One other thing on Chip Honcho is that I wish Paco Lopez had let him go at the beginning of the race instead of trying to rate him…. this horse wanted to run.
Steve waiting for your column tomorrow. Will be anxious to see who you have rated 2 – 12. We already know who is #1.
Mesquite was so the best horse in the Lecomte Stakes. Coming back from a long layoff and being scratched in the Gun Runner due to a virus, he hit the board going five wide. He had two workouts before the Lecomte.
Only an 81 Beyer, for Golden Tempo…but I thought he was impressive, he finishes, and wants to win—he showed that quality in both races so far …
100 points for first, 60 for second—for the UAE Derby …..Baeza had to wait until Thursday, and took post twenty—because he ran so well, at Santa Anita, not Dubai …possible for two entrants, from UAE….. doesn’t seem right..
Knock it Off, by Vekoma, out of a Bodemeister mare, looked very impressive in his first out maiden win at the Fair Grounds this past Saturday. He wired the field, setting fast fractions of 22.51, 46.28, 57.55, drawing off by 1 1/4 lengths in 1:09.47. He’s in the Steve Amussen barn and could try two turns in his next start. Keep an eye on Knock it Off moving forward.
He got a nice Beyer, too — 89.
Beyers aren’t the be all- end all.
The key this Saturday, in the Pegasus—-IF….Full Serrano can get outside of Captain Cook, and I think Rosario can putt that move….so if he gets the outside stalking trip—I think Full Serrano will win….in The Pegasus,
(PULL that move…)…
Matthew,
I think Full Serano is a very good horse but he will have his work cut out for him in this race. A lot of early speed and it is 1 1/8 mile race. White Abarrio loves this track a “true” horse for the course. Disco Time will be throwing sparks going around the track. Madakat Road and Captain Cook should be pushing the pace
I like Tappan Street for this race and Post with Jr Alvarado closing strong.
Good Luck Matthew this is one tough race.
Post Belmont (having run in all three Triple Crown races) ….Spectacular Bid ran 13 times….Alysheba ran 13 times … California Chrome ran 14 times …Silver Charm ran 15 times….horses that were loved…..
Off the topic of horse racing for a moment.
After watching all the NFL playoff games this weekend, I’m convinced that the Seattle Seahawks will represent the NFC and the Patriots will represent the AFC in this year’s Super Bowl. And the winner is, the Seattle Seahawks.
I’m glad to have bet Class President at 50-1 in KDFW3. I bet him to win and boxed him in EX with Paladin and All Others. I previously bet Paladin at 22-1 in KDFW2. CP is by Uncle Mo and trained by Todd Pletcher. I was very Impressed by his 1 mile MSW win on 12-27 at GP by 3 lengths going away. His gallop out was strong . He’s a big colt who looks like he will have no problem getting 1 1/4. He’s tactical and once Iraq tipped him out, he used those big strides to gobble up ground and roll by the leader. Very excited abut CP. Would love to see him next in the Sam Davis.
Has anyone heard anything about Brant?
In a past comment, Steve mentioned that Baffert is giving Brant a rest. I suspect that Brant will return to his regular work regime in the near future.
I just love Strategic Risk and Silent Tactic! Both of them look like real Derby runners. Litmus Test, on the other hand looks more like a turf horse with this pasterns and should be in a different barn, IMO.
Good luck to all!
Very nice reporting, as usual, Steve – really enjoyed reading this article!
Jackson Hole 84 BSF
Golden Tempo and Reagan’s Honor -81
Cherie’s horses ran only their 2nd starts today, stretching from 6F to 1 1/16, so that’s significant
GT improved his BSF 3 points from his maiden win, Reagan 12 points
Betsy:
Thanks for the update!
You’re welcome, Biggy!
Played only one Futures wager, on Liberty National, 99-1….
Golden Tempo lived up to my expectations, Stop the Car did not. I suspect Golden Tempo’s connections will point him to the Risen Star for his next outing. This Curlin colt, out of a Bernardini mare, just stamped himself as a major contender of this year’s Derby trail, IMO.
Bill,
Agree 100%
Serious contender;
Very nice finish….
Thumbs up, biggy312.
biggy, do you live in Vegas? How do you have such quick access to their odds?
Hi Bruce;
I do live in Vegas and was able to get some bets in before the odds moved….For Golden Tempo, he was only available at William Hill just after the Lecomte. I was hoping to be him before the race, but am happy with the 60-1..
I am also retired, and spend a lot of time on my phone on William Hill!
Thank you biggy! I’m retired as well and absolutely loving it! Sure beats working! We live in So Cal and hit Vegas a few times a year, I’ve gone into Caesars to bet the KDFW but they say it’s only offered on their App?? Can’t understand why they would deny customers money??
Love this time of year!
Thanks again for your reply, and good luck with your picks!
Good luck to you as well!
Agreed, Bill! Did you happen to catch the Cal Cup Derby? The winner Start the Ride, making only his second start, is also a homebred. That, and the way he finished, always gets my attention now thanks to Steve’s column.
Oh, he was on the radar of others, for sure.
Hi Ms Blacktype
Thanks for the heads up on Start the Ride. Yesterday, my total focus was on the Fair Grounds, mainly the Lecomte Stakes. Start the Ride has an impressive pedigree that reflects speed, stamina and class. He’s certainly a colt to keep an eye on moving forward. Right now, I’m keeping a close watch on the odds movement in KD Futures Pool 3. Renegade and Mesquite look enticing if their current odds remain relatively high.
Mesquite finished 2nd in the Lecomte, but in my opinion he was the best horse in the field. He was a late scratch in the Gun Runner due to a virus and had not raced since last November. He had two workouts before the Lecomte. I love his pedigree, so I’m placing him above Golden Tempo. Good luck
Hi Mary
Since Golden Tempo was not listed on KD Futures Pool 3, I placed a small wager ($20.00) on Mesquite at 57-1. That was the only win that I placed, but I boxed a few colts in my exacta wagers.
Bottom line, I certainly agree that Mesquite ran a great race. We could see a rematch in the Risen Star, or Ms. DeVaux might choose to keep them separated in their next outing.
Golden Tempo just opened at William Hill at 60-1
Now 40-1
Glad I put $20 on him at the higher odds
Golden Tempo now 30-1
Hey Ms B!
I’ve been following this boy since the sales!
He was working earlier in the spring, but they gave him time off, and it’s paid off. He ran a sneaky good 4th in his debut at 6F, & improved significantly here, showing very good speed & tractability. The horses behind him admittedly were wide, but they both had run 1 1/16 last out, so had a real advantage on RH
RH’s time was a bit slower than undefeated Jackson Hole from earlier in the day, but the fractions were much faster in the JH
I think RH is a very nice colt …and certainly is bred to run all day
HAP has a very good 3F in Counting Stars – keep an eye on her!
Here’s hoping HAP attracts more than 19 mares this season…
Given his bloodlines, I’m not surprised you were on top of his development, Betsy. He beat a nice large field, which is hard to do at a distance second time out. He’s one worth watching.
I think so, Ms. B …I like how much more speed he showed today; his versatility will come in handy in the future !
Jackson Hole has been hyped on racing sites for the last month or so.. ridiculously so, I might add.
Yes, Sovereignty like some other horses.
Golden Tempo has yet to go two turns—his 1:10 1/5 debut was eye catching….I boxed the DeVoux colts, Prat has brought home a couple of nice payouts,…
Got it! Golden Tempo impressed, in his maiden, and he impressed again today….he FINISHES..
Nice call Mathew!! Congrats! They both finished really well!
Another SW out of a Bernardini mare – love it!
Reagan’s Honor only ran a couple of rocks slower…
Good one Matthew… will check the race closer tomorrow.
Matthew, you have an almost spooky ability to pick winners. Who’d of thought of boxing the two DeVaux entries? Way to go!
Thank you! Regarding Regan’s Honor….it looked to me like the 86-1 shot was unlucky, to not win the race….
That horse already had an advantage of having already gone 1 1/16
This is going to come up a sneaky good race for all…but the winner has the most potential
I like Honor AP …
Reagan’s Honor, who just won a MSW at 1 1/16 miles at Fair Grounds for Cherie DeVaux, is out of a half sister to GIACOMO. Betsy alert: Sire is Honor A.P.
My reply to you is above – not sure why, lol
Strategic Risk is the Derby hopeful with the best Classic pedigree so far as Steve has deftly pointed out.
Taking the Breeder’s Cup Classic, Preakness, Belmont and Travers Stakes as benchmarks to ID proven 10 furlong runners is a very plausible exercise.
One past Derby winner closest to Strategic Risk’s “Stamina Index” is Orb and Mandaloun and Super Saver got Belmont Stakes champions as broodmare sires.
This year I see the following Derby prospects below Strategic Risk in the Stamina ranking:
Renegade, Courting, American King, MESQUITE, Confessional, Silent Tactic, Thunder Buck, Just buy it and Into the Beast.
In a minute Mojacar is debuting at Fairground who is even closer to Strategic Risk…
Classic pedigree…
Mojacar a son of Essential Quality out of Spanish Star by Blame also got Afleet Alex and Affirmed in his dam side seems to be a good candidate for the Belmont Stakes. The gray finished third in his 6 furlong debut after an awful start and running last coming to the last bend… A good one to have in your virtual stable indeed !
Missed Golden Tempo in the list of Classic Pedigrees …
Hello All
Today, Ted Noffey worked 3 furlongs in 37.01, which was his first official work since winning the BC Juvenile back in October. Per Todd Pletcher, the FOY is where he will point Ted Noffey for his next start. In addition, Pletcher announced that Nearly will point to the Holy Bull.
Hey Bill, I believe you were on Golden Tempo very early, so congrats on the win! I think too many folks followed your lead though, went off as the 5-2 fav! But a win is a win!!
Thanks, Bruce.
I’m a sucker for deep closers, Golden Tempo certainly fits the bill in that regard.
If in fact Golden Tempo makes the Derby starting gate, his running style should be beneficial, IMO. At this juncture, I’ll move GT up to #2 on my watch list, just behind Ted Noffey.
BTW, I seriously doubt that many folks follow my lead. 🙂
Some more line movements at WH:
Chief Wallabee now 25-1;
Thunderously now 40-1
Chief opened at 75-1;
Thunderously opened at 100-1
Hey biggy312
I’m keeping a close eye on the odds movement on a few longshots in KD Futures Pool 3. Evidently, the word is out on Nearly. He opened at 50-1 and is now listed at 16-1. Same goes for D’Code, opened at 50-1, now listed at 11-1. Obviously, those two offer no value at this junction.
However, Iron Honor is holding value at 71-1, and Renegade, at 83-1, look enticing if they hold those odds near the end of betting on Sunday 1-18.
BTW, So Happy, winner of the San Vincente, opened at 50-1, and is now listed at 32-1. We’ll see how his odds move as well.
Gun Runner has a raft of three year old colts making their way to possible Derby Action and now Steve points out Silent Tactic of which he is the brood mare sire. It is surely looking to me like 2026 is the year of Gun Runner as a sire. Most, if not all of them are bred for two turns. Add Thunder Buck in the Lecomte to that list.
Express Train retired, is being retrained for another career, I saw him at age two, worning with Honor AP, and he held that one by a neck, in a brisk 6fur work…I asked John Shirreffs his name, he told me the big black colt was also real good….Express Train had a beautiful stride, as he got older his stride wasn’t the same—I really liked Express Train, Mesquite is a 3/4 to him….
I liked Express Train, too. What a grand-looking horse.
I can’t underatand why Stop the Car isn’t in the Future Wager field. I think he has a big shot in the Lecomte off his last start and his Thoro-graph numbers. But we’ll see. He doesnt have a very good post. If he doesnt lose too much ground and hes closing at the end he could have a brght future
Steve:
Stop the Car is on the board at William Hill, currently 40-1
I like him on Saturday, not sure what odds he will go off…I started betting him at 66-1…
Hey biggy312.
I didn’t see your comment or Steve’s until after I submitted a comment on Stop the Car. Best of luck with wager on him at 66-1.
Bill:
Thanks very much: good luck with your bets. I am keying Stop the Car to the same horses you identified. Hope you cash your Super!
Good luck to you as well.
Hi Steve
I’m in complete agreement on your take of Stop the Car. I’m going to key him and Golden Tempo on top in my superfecta wage. 5,10/5,10/ 3,6,8,11/ 3,6,8,11.
Stop the Car checks a lot of boxes.
I also Iike Golden Tempo especially for down the road a bit. I just want to see himclosi g going two turns. He will run all day.
Thanks for the reply, Steve
Yeah, Golden Tempo’s late pace figure of 101 says it all. With Curlin on top and having Bernardini as his dam’s sire, the stamina and class is there to be serious contender, at the Classic distance, down the road. The fact that Golden Tempo is a Phipps Stable/St. Elias homebred, adds to his allure.
Like you, I’m disappointed that he doesn’t appear on the Pool 3 list.
Hello Bill
I too wish Golden Tempo and Stop The Car were on the future wager list . Whenever I see Bernardini as the dam sire of a horse I immediately think this is a horse that has a big chance to do well in the derby . Hopefully he just does enough to fly under the radar and make the dance . They both (Stop the Car and Golden Tempo) have a good chance Saturday to win or at least hit the board to set up the next start . I also like White Tiger very much . The 2 slop loving long shots I’m trying to figure out.
Hi ChrisL
Yes sir, I’m in total agreement on your take of Bernardini. In addition to Golden Tempo, there are a couple of other 3yr. old colts that have Bernardini as their dam’s sire. Namely, Courting ($5 million dollars at auction) and Criteria who was beat by Ted Noffey in his only start. Yesterday, Criteria worked 3 furlongs in 38.20, at PPTC and could be pointed to his next start very soon. Keep an eye on those two moving forward.
I’m sure that you are award that Bernardini was Sovereignty’s dam sire.
Thanks Bill yes I am keeping an eye on those 2 as well . I am hoping that Criteria can make it to the dance . You’re a wealth of information.
Good day
Interesting that you posted this, Steve. I keep thinking about Stop the Car —maybe the name reminds me of Stop the Music? I took advantage of the free Lecomte PPs today on the DRF and on paper it’s an even field. I won’t be surprised if any of them win — but I’ll be delighted if Stop the Car does.
Steve I can’t understand why Silent Tactic is not on the Futures ticket—first time dirt he came home FAST….passed many…..I understand Casse will bring the Smarty Jones one/two back, at Oaklawn….
I liked him too. Did he get hurt or just did not want to run yesterday?
Usually during weeks when there is a Twinspires Derby futures pool, William Hill adjusts some horses.
So far, Chief Wallabee has moved from 40-1 to 33-1
Iron Honor, nice Brown recent winner (Sire: Nyquist) just added at 75-1
Current top 5 at William Hill:
1. Ted Noffey 8-1
3. Paladin 10-1
3. Cannoneer 15-1
4. Further Ado 18-1
5. Commandment 20-1
All five far too low
Chad Brown. Is Iron Honor’s trainer
Hey biggy312
Iron Honor displayed an impressive closing kick in his debut race, at Aqueduct, on 12-13-25, earning an Equibase Speed figure of 104, in the process. Bred to run all day, and his 3X inbreeding to Mr. Prospector, on the dam side, should provide all he needs to be serious contender on the Derby trail, IMO.
Bottom line, those 75-1 odds, in Pool 3 look mighty tempting. However, just something to think about, he hasn’t had a recorded work since his win back in December. Hopefully, Chad Brown is just resting him and didn’t suffer a setback subsequent to his maiden win.
Bill:
Thank you very much for the update, especially the lack of work since last race…hope we get a published work soon.. .tempting odds!
You’re welcome, biggy312.
Just out of curiosity, who do you like in the Lecomte Stakes coming up on Saturday, 1-17. With the scratch of Ocelli, the field has been reduced to ten, six of which appear to be the main contenders. Those six are, Crown the Buckeye (4-1), Golden Tempo (8-1), Thunder Buck (6-1), White Tiger (8-1), Stop the Car (8-1) and Chip Honcho (9/2). From my perspective, Stop the Car checks a lot of boxes. He’s undefeated in two starts, with the ability to set just off a torrid fast pace in his last out win or make a huge close from far back (9th to 1st) as he demonstrated in his maiden win. My second choice will be Golden Tempo, by Curlin, out of a Bernardini mare. His late pace figure of 101 is the highest in the field and should be rolling late down the stretch. The fact that Jose Ortiz chose him over Mesquite speaks volumes.
That said, my final superfecta wager will be as follows:
I’ll Key Stop the Car and Golden Tempo on top in the first two slots, with Crown the Buckeye, Thunder Buck, White Tiger and Chip Honcho underneath in the 3rd and 4th slots.
That is: 5,10/ 5,10/ 3,6,8,11/ 3,6,8,11
Just for the hell of it, I’ll flip that over and use 3,6,8,11 on top with 5,10 in the 2nd and 3rd slots, with 3,6,8,11 in the 4th slot.
That is: 3,6,8,11/ 5,10/ 5,10/ 3,6,8,11.
Each $1.00 superfecta wager will cost $24.00.
Safe trips to all.
Iron Honor now 50-1
There’s a little video going around, Zenyatta in a pasture, with four or five other horses….she lets them all run past her, then flys after them, with a big kick, to help her stop …she is in her twenties, and still looks incredible…
Matthew, do you remember where you found that video?
I think it was related to the Breeders Cup, it has popped up on my f-book page, twice….she’s full of run, still has her physique ..
Thanks! Yes, she does look terrific.
I got to visit her recently – she looks healthy and happy
Steve I understand you were a Dodgers fan, in the 1950s, Ebetts Field with all of the signage! Mays, Robinson, Snider…..across town there was Mantle, Berra, Ford—hosting Williams and Doerr….I grew up in San Francisco, saw many Giants games, at the most uncomfortable ballpark to watch a night game at—I even got mugged, at age eight with my friends, in the Candlestick parking lot, but what times, they were, in baseball …then came the 1970s, in Horse Racing—Riva Ridge, Ack Ack, Cougar II, Secretariat, Wajima, Seattle Slew, Affirmed, Alyday, Spectacular Bid—and the three geldings, who were millionaires,, when they met in the 1975 Marlboro Cup, Forego, Ancient Title, Royal Glint….times gone by, the best of times ..
Ms B here are the Japanese horses pointing for the Saudi Derby…Satono Voyage, Wonder Dean, Best Green, and Tokai Ma Cherie.
Thank you, Steve.
I love the picture of the Derby trophy surrounded by roses in front of snowy farmland. It’s beautiful to look at and it also sends a welcome message–yes, it’s winter but the Derby is coming before long. It’s a perfect prelude to your upcoming discussions of this year’s three-year-olds.
Horrible news regarding Free Like A Girl!
That is sad. She made it through her racing career, only to have this happen.
Todd, sometimes developments such as these almost breaks my will regarding following racing.
She loved to run …her class always showed….just a tough accident, everyone liked her…
Steve, love these backstories. Keep them coming. I have a feeling Thunderously will be featured in one of your articles soon.
Breaking News:
Brad Cox has announced that Jerome Stakes winner, My World, will ship across the pond for the Saudi Derby, on Feb. 14th. He added that My World will ship back and enter a Derby prep race down the road.
Baffert is sending Buetane
Bill and Steve:
Have either of you heard whether (and which) Japanese racers will attempt the Saudi Derby?
Hi Ms Blacktype
To be honest, I don’t follow Japanese racing that much. Sorry.
Bill, I’m just anticipating one or more Japanese entrants in the Derby. Several have been floated based on wins and points: Pyromancer, winner of the Zen-Nippon Nisai Yushun, a Group 1 race; Cavallerizzo, winner of the Group 1 Asahi Hai Futurity; and Satono Voyage, the winner of the Cattleya Sho.
Sooner or later, a Japanese horse may break through in the Derby. I can’t take a candidate seriously, though, if they don’t at least run in one of the mid-eastern points race, or here, for that matter. Thanks for responding!
Hi Steve
Thanks for the update on Buetane’s next start. That big purse in the Saudi Stakes is tempting, to say the least.
I realize you’re a very busy man, but if you get the time, I would appreciate knowing when and where Baffert intends to start his $2.4 million dollar colt, Potente.
Many thanks, Steve.
Edit: Saudi Derby, not the Saudi Stakes.
I hope he gets a better ride in the SA Derby than he got in the San Vincente.
If your going have him running as a closer you take ride to the rail out of the gate.
Potente, by Into Mischief, out of an Awesome Again mare, sold at auction for $2.4 million dollars. He has yet to debut, but judging by his most recent work, at Santa Anita, going 4 furlongs in a bullet 46.40 (1/90), on 1-11, it appears Bob Baffert has him well cranked for his initial start. Obviously, he’s getting a late start, but there’s still plenty of time for Potente to make some noise on this year’s Derby trail. Keep an eye on this Into Mischief colt moving forward.
I wonder if he is named after Franka Potente, the German actress….
Hi Steve – We are all awaiting your KY Derby rankings for JAN 21. Im glad I bet Paladin at 22-1 in KDFW2, hes targetting the Risen Star. I’ll add another KDFW horse this weekend in KDFW3. Will you have a MON article Steve, or will your next article be on JAN 21, your KY Derby rankings. The timing is good with the Derby trail heating up for the newly minted 3 year olds and KDFW3 is this weekend.
We’re going straight thru to the 21st.
Rev up your engines !!!
When it comes to ten furlongs, I really emphasize SIZE—when I brought my wife to the Big Cap, on a warm sunny day …she noted how every horse was lrge—until #14 Serena’s Song came past, and she finished last….I have always noticed how size matters, at ten furlong races….not always, California Chrome was medium sized, he got ten furlongs …..but when you look at gr1 ten furlong races you’re looking at large framed animals!
(wife picked Me Purple, bet $10 won $170, bought us sushi—…)
The opening odds on KD Futures Pool 3, set to open for betting on Jan. 16th, have been posted. Listed below are a few enticing longshots that I have been following, two of which are entered in Saturday’s Lecomte Stakes, at the Fair Grounds.
Brant, 30-1
Chief Wallabee, 60-1
Chief Honcho, 50-1 (entered in the Lecomte)
D’Code, 80-1
Englishman, 60-1
My World, 50-1
Nearly, 50-1
Renegade, 60-1
So Happy, 75-1
Thunderously, 60-1
White Tiger, 80-1 (entered in the Lecomte)
It remains to be seen what odds these colts will close at on Jan. 18th, but I’ll lay a couple of saw bucks on So Happy in hopes that he remains close to those opening odds of 75-1. I’ll lay a few bucks on Brant (30-1) as well.
Proceed with caution.
I don’t wager too much, on the Futures, but Strategic Risk at 40-1…Liberty National at 80-1…..and the 75-1 on So Happy all entice me!…Brant does not excite me, he looks small and lacking ng the needed stamina …Bob’s Litmus Test is a large framed colt, I’d need more than 20-1…last year I had $15 on Journalism at 52-1, on Derby Day I bet the 8- on the winner…losing the Futures bet helped me to win, on Sov….
“Brant, “lacking the needed stamina”.
A Gun Runner colt lacking stamina? You might want to check Gun Runner’s race record at the Classic distance. In addition, his dam’s sire, Liam’s Map, was a Grade 1 winner, at 9 furlongs.
Dismiss Brant at your own peril.
Have a good evening.
Well Brant is a good horse, I’ll agree with that….his maiden race at 5 1/2 furlongs ngs was impressive ..his Del Mar Futurity was unimpressive, in my opinion, and he had an easy led, at Del Mar….and finished 3rd, at 8 1/1 furlongs….I’m not playing him, in the Derby Futures, despite his bloodlines …
Thanks, I will.
I would be surprised if Brant made it to the Derby.
Mr. Haskin, each time from reading your amazing articles I learn something. Always look forward to your Derby list. Thanks!
Thanks Mike. Sometimes on the Derby trail you learn too much..😀
Great background. Especially love the Mike Ryan’s notes. Good insight into how these buyers evaluate at the sales. Eagerly awaiting your Derby Rankings!
I just love that catalog page. I want to send it to the .Museum of .Modern Art.
If Litmus Test wins the Derby, I’m sure the National Museum of Racing would want it.
Steve, you are on fire! Great story on two of the most recent breakout stars on the Derby Trail, along with an intriguing third. I got a real kick out of that heavily scribbled-upon catalog page. (Back in the 60s, I ordered a catalog for the summer Keeneland yearling sale; bet the vendor had no idea they were sending it to a 12-year-old girl who just wanted to look at pedigrees.)
In addition to all the good stuff you spilled on Silent Tactic, he comes from an amazing female family. His second dam is Macoumba, mother of perennial leading sire Malibu Moon. Macoumba is a half to Group 1 French runner and sire Septieme Ciel, from the family of Nonoalco and Stravinsky.
As for your first Derby rankings, don’t overthink it. Just listen to what your brain tells you, like Carrie Brogden.
Thanks very much Ms B. I can’t overthink it because right now my brain is giving me the silent treatment. Im hoping by January 21 we’re back communicating.
In my case, it’s the eyes: I just developed “floaters,” which occur in OLD PEOPLE. How could that have happened?
Floaters and I have been close friends for years.
Usually floaters are gotten to people who have undergone a cataract surgery. Anyhow, it mostly happens when the eyes are getting dry, so try to keep it hydrated. A warm damp dish cloth or something similar will do.
LOL, Steve — and thanks for the suggestion, Gary.
Steve,
Just don’t be on any drugs or supplements while compiling your list.. Churchill Downs may ban you from releasing it !!!
Lol. I won’t even put Vaseline on.
LOL
On another note. …
Goal Oriented the recent Malibu Stakes winner was retired to stud. No mention of injury and he will stand stud at Spendthrift farm. Apparently Spendthrift was looking for a horse sired by Not This Time to add to their stallion line up and Goal Oriented fit the bill. Must have made SF Racing an offer they couldn’t refuse.
BTW.. .
This was confirmed by Ned Toffey not to be confused with Ted Noffey
It’s a shame these partnerships are so bottom line oriented. The Goal Oriented we saw in the Malibu was exciting. Maybe the connections had reason to believe he couldn’t do it again. And Sovereignty’s 4yo “campaign” will likely be disappointing from a traditional point of view. I figured he’d go to Dubai, but a Carter-Met Mile-Whitney-Woodward-BC campaign would have been exciting and shown some versatility.
Love your deep dives, Steve! Litmus Test and Strategic Risk have run against good horses, run around two turns ..this is what my brother said was important, for a two year old…not necessarily dominate–just having been tested, is what he meant…..both have improved, there’s things to like!
Reg. RTTKD have Keeler use the HRN derby site. All the stables can be posted there, the rest can be on BH a page he normally creates for priming horses.
You can’t love racing and not love Steve’s writing. This was most enjoyable.
I appreciate it Jon. Thank you.
Steve,
Nice background article on 3 horses that show some potential in this year KD chase.
With Litmus Test I am still on the fence with him. He won the Los Ali Fut against a suspect field especially now with Blacksmith losing his follow up race.
Mark Casse’s two horses Strategic Risk and Silent Tactic both looked good in Smarty Jones. Strategic Risk I feel has a more fluid running style and looked to want more in the end while Silent Tactic has a more grinding style we will see if he continues to improve . Got to give Casse a tip of the hat on were to place his horses. We’ll see if this strategy continues with success.
Again nice article Steve and have a great week.
.