Preakness Advice: Don’t Let Your Imagination Run Free
With the scratch of Muth the entire complexion of the Preakness has changed. Our expert advice is this – don’t waste your time handicapping the race. There is an excellent chance it simply isn’t necessary.~ Steve Haskin
Preakness Advice: Don’t Let Your Imagination Run Free
By Steve Haskin
I was prepared like everyone to handicap the Preakness in a normal fashion and at least attempt to figure out how it would play out. As soon as the race was drawn it had Bob Baffert written all over it, as it often does. With the three inside horses all lacking even the slightest hint of speed, it meant the morning line favorite Muth, breaking from post 4, became the inside speed in a seemingly paceless race, which pointed to another in the long line of Baffert front-running victories. So often we have seen big races in which no one was able or willing to challenge a Baffert speed horse, often resulting in dare I say a boring race.
But at least there was another Baffert horse in there with good tactical speed and the possibility they could at some point in the race compromise each other’s chances, with Mystik Dan and Tuscan Gold right behind ready to pounce on them. Then again it wouldn’t have surprised me to see Imagination bust out of there from the outside and have Muth pull out and sit right off his flank.
But that all changed with the scratch of Muth after the colt came down with a fever shipping to Baltimore. Or did it? In a flash it hit me. Forget handicapping the race under these new circumstances. Forget the possibility of an off track. Forget wondering how Mystik Dan, Catching Freedom, and Just Steel would handle coming back in two weeks.
As irrational as it may be, I couldn’t help but see what was happening. The Preakness now was all about karma and all those ethereal clichés we like to use, such as “it’s in the cards” or “it was meant to be,” or we could even bring the racing gods into the picture. Forget the past performances and speed figures, All I could see was one thing. It was indeed in the cards and meant to be that Bob Baffert is going to win the Preakness with Frankie Dettori and a now very visible Imagination. After all, who could light a fuse under Old Hilltop like Dettori?
This is a person who can have the most proper of Englishmen tossing their top hats in the air at Royal Ascot, have the track announcer bust his vocal cords calling one of his victories, and even get the monarchy to jump out of their seats in the Royal Enclosure.
Racing fans all over England, Ireland, Italy and maybe even a few in France will burst into joyous rapture despite it being around midnight as “Frankie” crosses the finish line aboard Imagination screaming and waving and lifting himself off the saddle and saluting the crowd at Pimlico. And then comes the main attraction that everyone is waiting for – the first ever world famous Dettori dismount following an American classic race. What a way to spend your supposed retirement. Then Frankie and Bobby embrace with Baffert’s wife Jill unable to hold back the tears. By now the cacophonous clicking of cameras sounds like a horde of locusts.
Come on, can’t you see it? Even if you don’t like Imagination, sometimes there are forces you can’t fight. I admire Imagination’s grit and consistency and willingness to always do battle, but I surely wasn‘t planning on emptying my bank account to bet him, even though it would not have surprised me if he upset his more highly regarded stablemate as well as the Derby winner.
Unlike the Derby I didn’t love anyone anyway, although my win bet at a decent price was going to go on Tuscan Gold, who to me turned in the best performance in the Louisiana Derby, breaking from post 10, racing wide on both turns, and battling to the wire going 1 3/16 miles in only his third career start. Only an exceptional horse can do that. And on top of that he got a faster Thoro-Graph number than the two horses who beat him, Catching Freedom and Honor Marie. Oh, yes, he is being ridden by Tyler Gaffalione, who you know is going to be extremely driven to win this race and erase the Derby fiasco and its aftermath.
I would also have some fun playing around in the exotics. And then Muth had to come out, creating visions of a Frankie Festival. And who better to team up with for such an historic occasion than the polarizing Bob Baffert, the toughest opponent you will ever meet in the big money races. And he is even more dangerous when he is forced to depend on his second stringer for a victory, especially when they are left alone on the lead. Have we forgotten Authentic and Medina Spirit and Arrogate? Have we forgotten the year he ran out of 3-year-olds and wound up buying the Derby winner (War Emblem) three weeks before the big race?
You don’t need a crystal ball to see Frankie Dettori hustling Imagination to the front, establishing a clear lead, and leaving Brian Hernandez on Mystik Dan in a quandary and having to do all the dirty work. Go after him and possibly kill off both horses or stalk him and just hope he comes back to you? But Bob Baffert horses on the lead never come back to you. And even if you hook Imagination you know he is not going down without a gut-wrenching battle. And good luck outfinishing Dettori.
So while I still like Mystik Dan and have Tuscan Gold as my main win bet at a decent price, or what used to be a decent price, I can’t get the image of Frankie and Bobby taking over the show. All the pieces fit. The visions are all clear and swirling around in my head — Imagination on a loose lead and then bounding home with no one able to catch him, Frankie Dettori’s post-race theatrics, Europeans jumping out of their bed, and Bob Baffert reveling in the bittersweet joy of knocking off another Kentucky Derby winner and thwarting another possible Triple Crown sweep.
So as much as I would love to see Mystik Dan win again or collect on Tuscan Gold or even have Catching Freedom and the Albaugh family finally nail down that big one, I know I can’t fight the inevitable and find it difficult to offer any sage advice on handicapping this race.
I will say this if you are looking for a longshot to sneak into the trifecta go with the mystery horse and the phantom race. That would be Uncle Heavy. No one is going to fall in love with the son of Social Inclusion looking at his past performance line for the Wood Memorial, so just watch the race and keep an eye on him closing on the far outside and see what happens in the stretch. Oh wait, you can’t; no one can. You see, after he had to circle six-wide coming into the stretch a horse next to him clipped heels and went down, and because NYRA cut that out of the replay and didn’t release the head-on we have no idea how much that affected him. I thought he was moving strongly at the time. The chart footnotes said he was “taken in hand” when the horse went down, and you sure don’t want to be taken in hand while making your big move. So he may very well have finished a lot closer had that not happened. Just something to keep in the back of your mind when making your bets. Oh, yes, he gets Irad Ortiz.
Finally, if I run into any of you on some dark secluded street I might tip-toe up to you and whisper in your ear, “Tuscan Gold,” but you didn’t hear it from me. I’ll play him just to have some action, but I just want to get it over with and move on to the Belmont Stakes at Saratoga. The racing gods have this one covered.
P.S. If I’m wrong, remind me to send the racing gods a letter of apology and thank them for resisting the temptation to meddle in something so obvious.
Racing historian, author, and award-winning retired journalist for the Daily Racing Form and The Blood-Horse, Steve Haskin was inducted into the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame’s Media Roll of Honor in 2016. Known for his racing knowledge and insightful prose, he has been an exclusive contributor to Secretariat.com since 2020.
Is Belmont Day at Saratoga going to be the big event that I think it is? The owners and trainers will have to cooperate and bring their stars. Saratoga will sell itself. Just give us some good sized quality fields. Some perfect late spring weather would seal the deal.
There will be some drama. Can Sierra Leone run straight in the stretch and more importantly, not touch any other horses? CB has quite a job on his hands.
Does Fierceness keep his yo-yo form intact by running one of his great ones? I think he does. TP has kind of a headcase on his hands.
Will we get as many as 3 horses running on all three Saturdays of the Triple Crown? I hope so, but only if they are right.
Will BB make an appearance at Saratoga? He was supposedly loaded. Where are they? I was looking at some past Belmont results. BB doesn’t dominate the Belmont like he does the Preakness and Derby. Oh, he’s won 3 Belmonts. Two with his Triple Crown winners and the other with Point Given in 2001. Point Given should have been a Triple Crown winner. If only Gary Stevens didn’t have him so close to a hot pace in Louisville.
Bob said he’s loaded with two year olds at Del Mar this year…..but his three year olds this year have been a disappointment, to say the least—his top ones are out of training, Prince of Monaco worked, the other day but Nysos and Maymun have not and Muth got sick….he has one that ran a spectacular maiden race last year that’s working…one word name I forgot…
The last thing I read is that Muth is not going in the Belmont Stakes but instead will be targeting the Haskell Stakes….and as for Nysos-the last thing I read is that he (Nysos) is ‘chilling out’ according to Baffert after a setback a couple of weeks ago.
excuse me….a couple of months ago (Nysos).
I placed a win wager on Seize the Grey. The horse has an incredible pedigree with Arrogate on top and a Smart Strike mare on the bottom, so the combination of speed and the inundation of stamina carried him home. I was fairly certain Seize the Grey would set the pace, and when he did, the race was over. I think that many people overlooked his win in the Pat Day mile two weeks before the Preakness; it sent a signal to me that Mr. Lukas thought highly of the horse. He is an 88-year-old horse whisperer!!
I did lose the exacta, Seize the Grey and Chasing Freedom. I love them both.
Seize the Grey reminds me of Arcangelo, they look somewhat alike and share the same sire. I hope Seize the Grey joins Arcangelo at Lane’s End when he embarks on his new career.
And his fractions on that muddy surface were very legit…..
Racing gods picked a different sentimental scenario to give Lukas the win. Seize the Grey sure is beautiful; perhaps he will really bloom as time goes by, as his sire did. Let’s hope so.
With a Belmont/Travers winner last year and a Preakness winner this year, Arrogate sure proved himself as a sire in the brief time he had.
I love Arcangelo and Seize the Grey. I can’t wait to see Arcangelo’s foals on the track. Seize the Grey has an incredible pedigree, so when he retires, hopefully he will join Arcangelo at Lane’s End.
Great photo of Seize the Grey nuzzling D. Wayne Lukas early Sunday morning. There is unquestionably a strong bond between horse and trainer. There is no doubt that D. Wayne’s love of the sport helps to keep him going strong at 88.
I would say that Seize the Grey benefitted the most from the muddy conditions. He proved that he loved the mud in his previous races. What’s the saying? “If it’s wet, bet on the grey”. Having said that, unless the Belmont is run on a wet track, I doubt that he will give the same performance up at Saratoga. Waiting to see who shows up and whether there will be others who contend for the lead. Can’t wait to see how this all shakes out.
As for my boy, Tuscan Gold, I think the bumping at the start and his apparent dislike for the condition of the track, helped to do him in. I hope that he returns in the Belmont for another chance to redeem himself.
Dewey, good news at this stage the forecast for June 8 is cloudy with a high of 77. Actually, the Friday is supposed to be sunny as is the Sunday with no rain on any day.
Mindframe is the colt that intrigues me most from the Pletcher barn and to see where he lines up next. They have mentioned the Belmont Stakes for Mindframe.
Good luck with Tuscan Gold, Catching Freedom has looked the better colt to me on both occasions.
Poor Catching Freedom，Hope u win the Haskell.
Poor Just Steel.
The Yushun Himba, Japanese Oaks, ran to form with the top three fillies sharing the spoils which is a change from what has been happening in Europe, Australia, and the US in the Classic races.
Manchester City became the first team to win four Premier League Titles in a row which was fantastic for some. Ha ha
D Wayne Lukas races them. Thunder Gulch went everywhere, and won with his signature stretch kick, I remember Criminal Type, the son of Alydar defeated Easy Goer and Sunday Silence in back-to-back grade ones, I remember Quarter Horse Native Empress “The Old Grey Mare” who always, and I do mean always—broke out of there on top ….Landaluce, who held a 3 length lead, at the head of the stretch then opened twenty……..I would ride my Schwinn 3-speed with 26″ wheels (too big for me age 13….)….ride it like I was ina race, balancing on my balls of feet like a jockey (I turned out 6′ 2″…)….rode to Los Al, in the Summer ….backstretch barns were nondescript and all dirt, between the sheds …until I came to a row with all green sod between painted barns (green and while) and DWL banners everywhere…so clean you could picnic between barns…his horses always looked better than anyone’s, he employed great grooms…..Wayne projected an image of competence to the nnth degree…twice he talked to me back then and he wasn’t nice to a kid, Ill leave it at that …around 2008…under the Lis Al grandstand I was getting off of the elevator and walking towards me was Wayne ..in a windbreaker, blue jeans and cowboy boots walking tall…and I said nothing, and nobody noticed it was Wayne, except for me …I always wish I’d have asked him if Native Empress was running!….
Great memory of your childhood days biking to Los Al, Matthew W! Wish I’d had a racetrack to ride to, instead of just the back “pasture” of the nearby school.
Just Steel, 13 races in 11 months. Guess he won’t be thrown into Belmont as result of injury. Way to go coach!
It’s a darn shame, Mike, these comment sections weren’t around back in the days when trainers routinely raced their horses that many times. Undoubtedly, you would have been leading the charge condemning every single one of them.
Seeing all the Preakness post-race praise being heaped on Lukas, when we all know he and his buddy, Bob, should not be allowed to come within ten feet of a thoroughbred, must be sickening to you.
Counter, thanks for responding. Enjoy your posts! Five years ago, told writer Pat McQueen if these two trained Zenyatta her racing career would never been. Both are a disgrace!
A horse wins a one turn mile stakes, then two weeks later wins The Preakness….but that’s nothing new, Wayne in 1978 won two graded stakes, one on turf one on dirt—-six days apart with Effervescing..
Congrats to team Lukas for their win. DWL keeps adding to his list of victories and horses…from Lady’s Secret to Azeri to Landaluce to Serena’s Song to Winning Colors and everything in between.
I still remember Lukas training the quarters at Los Al (Los Alamitos) years and years ago.
I also remember reading a story about the passion of Lukas had about horses in the Orange County Register a while back describing DWL getting up in the morning at 4am and going to either Santa Anita or Hollypark (Hollywood Park) and working out his horses-spending the day there till late afternoon and then traveling south to Orange County and resuming training the quarters at Los Al until about 11pm or later going home and doing it all over again the next day.
John Wayne trained a small filly named Native Empress, a Quarter Horse that always came out running, best gate horse I ever saw….
(probably should have made that John—Wayne trained….it looks like I’m saying the actor trained Native Empress, who was nicknamed “The Old Grey Mare”. …trained by D Wayne Lukas.
John you’re right, Wayne went into Thoroughbreds around 1978, and he kept his Quarter Horse stable at Los Al….I remember Wayne had two incredible looking fillies, out of the first crop of the great Dash For Cash—-Dashingly and Justanold Love, Dashingly looked like she was foaled in Heaven! She glowed chestnut! And her stablemate won the All American Futurity…
Matthew W, I won money on Dashingly especially on those trials they had before the big races.
The one horse that has never run and never worked on a wet surface, Imagination….ran the poorest yesterday…..it’s a game played outdoors, and we had a lot of rain this year on SoCal…..
Is it possible to ever have a horse race without some sort of controversy, stewards inquiry, injury or breakdown?
Just every now and then I would just like to watch a clean race.
Lynda, you’ll have to watch Australian, European, Japanese races. lol. Today’s US thoroughbred doesn’t have the same robust stoutness to run on dirt tracks as they used to – there are a myriad of reasons why but that’s an old story – remedying the problem seems insurmountable unless they change the track surface.
As for the stewards, inquiries etc – what they miss, forgive astounds me at times. The punters have the whip handle – stop betting until there is satisfaction which will probably never happen. The Sisyphus syndrome.
Great news! Belmont Day at Saratoga will be on Fox1 and Fox. I’m not a fan of the NBC coverage. Show me the horses in the paddock and the post parades. For all the races.
I don’t need to see some guy having tea with various characters in the infield.
While NBC shows the post parade for the featured race, they don’t show the horses in the undercard races until they are about to go into the gate.
No kidding about the tea setup in the infield. That fellow (whose name escapes me) is normally an excellent racing analyst in the UK and Dubai. NBC in its wisdom totally wasted him.
Ms Blacktype, the coverage from the Pimlico website was excellent. You see the horses and the chatter is minimal apart from real racing talk.
I hope FOX reads these comments. I am not tuning in for coverage of people who see a day of racing solely as a bacchanal. I don’t care about the fashion or hats. I see people act like donkeys all the time – I don’t need more coverage of that nonsense. Let’s see the athletes. Some folks are betting and some of us like horses more than we like people, so let’s see them a lot.
Or just people that post on this blog, LOL! Great post, Katy.
If FOX is smart, even if they read your comments, they should ignore them. Their sole purpose is to attract as large a viewing audience as possible. Catering to what the typical horseplayer prefers is secondary to that purpose – as well as it should be.
Thing is NBC does NOT cater to the horse crowd. They cater to entertainers, the Hollywood elite and the mega wealthy.
I have “horse friends: all over the United States, England, Ireland, Egypt, Saudi Arabia just to mention a few.
Guess what, when the stupid stuff comes on we mute the sound or pause live streaming.
We make fun of NBC. That stick horse mud race was just about the stupidest thing I have ever seen. When running in the mud in high heels is just ignorant.
We want to see the walk over, saddling in the paddock, the warmup, stories about great horses in the past that have won the races, more of the back stories on the horses, the owners, the trainers.
I could care less what Taylor Swift’s boyfriend…that football player has to say about anything.
Nobody did it better than ABC and CBS.
They cater to the public and will do the same with the Olympic coverage. That’s normal and there’s good reason for them to do that. The stands would be empty if it weren’t for casual fans and horse racing wouldn’t exist. I like some or most of the big race day shows, I didn’t watch as much this time, but if you watch you do pick up things about the horses, indirectly. The walk to the saddling area had some good interviews and they were quick.
I know they should do what they have to do to boost viewership and keep it going. It’s just a bummer that casual fans might believe that Stakes days are made for showing out that way, and it’s totally fine because you’re in college and a deejay is there. And then they’ll have coverage of Ascot, and how fancy and classy that is. YET if you attend weekday racing with a ball-cap on and your racing form, plan to get judged like you’ve been hanging out at a brothel. It is just such a weird way to present it, especially the Preakness.
They didn’t show that much of the mud races on TV, but it’s kind of unique to the Preakness, at least people are having harmless fun. They always drink and pull goofy stunts there. I think Marylanders love their Preakness and the buy out of 1ST proves it.
The few real racetrackers who remain, such as myself, rarely go to the track anymore. The old atmosphere, and many of our favorite tracks, are gone. It’s either the crowds of Saratoga and Keeneland or the depressing emptiness of everywhere else. Not much in between anymore. And it has just become too easy and comfortable to bet from home.
The Olympics coverage has also deteriorated under NBC.
I guess one’s opinion about NBC, NBC Sports, Peacock is dependent on one’s age and what they from the years that the races were televised on CBS and ABC.
Someone made mistake about Peaccock on Friday. There ere a couple races I wanted to watch and Peacock was not even streaming.
The best coverage comes from online betting sites, but to subscribe you have to live in a state that allows betting betting on horse racing and my state does not.
Horse racing in general is not marketed very effectively in the United Sates.
We all miss Jim Mckay and Jack Whitaker!
Jim McKay’s voice was the voice of racing, to me. After the Sunday Silence-Easy Goer stretch duel made the clip intro to Wide World of Sports, I thought horse racing had made it and we were in for a comeback! We thought it was cool that they had the nice little turf (swamp) stakes named in his honor on Saturday.
And to jump in, their pedigree! Especially on the undercard, please show sire, dam and dam sire! Not once did NBC or its commenters mention Arrogate!
That was sad that they did not mention Arrogate
I NEVER watch until post to time. Too much garbage!
Mr. Haskin,
The most comprehensive overview of the Preakness winner was posted to your Blog. It reads like it was composed whilst the author looking in a Crystal Ball. I haven’t seen anything of its kind on any other blog or YouTube Channel.
Hi Counter Point,
I just read your post from May 17th; I must say your analysis was spot on.
I hope you reaped a financial windfall for your handicapping.
greg (Fan of Damascus)
Just Steel came out of Preakness with right front condylar. Being sent to Dr Bramlage at R&R for possible surgery.
Seize the Grey will probably go in the Belmont.
The Belmont should be a fantastic race…I’m looking forward to seeing Honor Marie get a chance to run this time.
I’m likely in the minority based on what I see on boards, but I love Lukas
I can’t find anything about it, Lynda. You must have an inside track. Tough horse, to finish 5th on it. Must be non-displaced. Rosario must not have felt it, because his comments were pretty positive. Good thoughts for this young warrior.
Did Mugatu actually finish? NBC had a weird shot of him being led off the track after the race, but no explanation. He hated the track, according to connections. Nothing about injury for him, though.
David Grening of Daiky Racing Form posted it on X (Twitter) about an 2.5 hours ago. No info yet how serious.
I will see what I can find on Mugatu.
Joe Bravo said Mugatu did not like the slop.
Looks like he did finish the race.
Some horses simply do not like dirt and mud in their faces, up their nose, in their ears.
Can’t blame ’em.
Actually hate to see them run in slop. Increased chance of tendon injuries.
Of course he will.
Oh, no! I’m sorry to hear about the injury to Just Steel. I hope he’ll be okay.
Mc Vay finally broke his maiden, in a bizarre race ….looked like another defeat, but he got it done and then some, this is a big framed three year old, he’s a good one…..
Yes Matthew, finally he did it. Had quite a good today all round.
I’ll say it right now, Davids: Mc Vay is one of the top three year olds! Look out IF he puts it all together, he has a long frame and a terrific stride!…
Yes, Matthew, a gorgeous colt. It’s a big ‘if’ at this stage but you sense he’ll eventually put it all together. Probably, we’ll have to wait until he’s a 4 year old but that’s part of the enjoyment. Like yourself, I was thrilled by the win.
It’s a crazy year with the Classic races around the world, upsets all the time. The Epsom Derby is anyone’s race unless City of Troy finds last year’s form. All the winners of the prep races aren’t even going to run in the Epsom Derby so, city of Troy could win by default.
Can’t wait for the Belmont Stakes at Saratoga, who’s in and who’s out?
Congratulations to Seize The Grey!
He did mess up my trifecta however, LOL
Not a bad day for my selections overall.
Now it’s on to the Belmont at Saratoga.
Have a great Sunday everyone.
I hated seeing Mystik Dan lose, was poised to to win the dual crown, foiled by a muddy track. I bet an exacta box at the last minute with Seize the Grey, who looked stellar in the post parade. All the coverage of Myhorserace gave him some karma, and criticism of Pat Day mile seemed unjustified. He was overlooked and others were overhyped. But it’s more than mud that beat them.
Myracehorse.
I am with you. I don’t think there was any shame in Dan running second to Seize the Grey, especially today. I still love Mystik Dan, and I know they’ll have his best interests first and foremost going forward.
Didn’t Grey look like his sire? What a stride. He came out big like that in the PD Mile, then took back. He is very quick for a big framed horse! He looked like he had an entire hand on Dan.
I hate that the Preakness is discounted and gets knocked. Maybe because of Derby winners getting disappointed? But the camaraderie of the trainers and riders seemed so strong. It was great to see everyone congratulating D. Wayne Lukas, and he looked a little emotional in the Winner’s Circle. For someone SO old school, I like that he has embraced the group ownership concept.
I loved that our top three all ran Derby weekend. That said, no way I think Mystik Dan should try the Belmont. Plenty of work yet to be done for the summer and fall. Figure no matter what I think, the Lukas horses are going. Just Steel needs something to change, though.
I just wanted to see a dual crown winner I liked. Didn’t have him to win in the Derby so I jumped on the band wagon. He’s a likeable horse for sure. There’s no telling what Seize the Grey can do at this point. Mystik Dan will get a rest, no doubt.
I wanted to see that, too.
Preakness trifecta all three two weeks rest. …
Say, you’re right! Glad you pointed that out. Gives me a little hope for the modern American Thoroughbred. Looks like there are a few out there that are more durable than they’re given credit for.
My horse finished 2nd. Hopefully he doesn’t go to Belmont. Other races this summer.
I bet the wrong Likas, but I’m happy. Wayne and racing have a symbiotic relarionship, keeping each other alive. I guess the horse didn’t need a rest.
Hip, hip hooray for Seize the Grey!
So happy for everyone at MyRacehorse!
And to make things even sweeter, I bet on him, too!
Congratulations! Nice hit!
Thank you very much, biggy!
When Seize the Grey took the lead and then shook off Imagination, I thought he might wire the race and he did. His 2,500+ owners must be over the moon, and to have D. Wayne Lukas win another classic at the age of 88 is the stuff of legends. Can’t wait to see Steve’s wrap-up on this one.
Nice race! Glad for Lukas! I had winner at 15-1 at William Hill; also hit exacta; now have some money available for Belmont!
That’s great! Congratulations to you as well!
arlingtonfan:
Thanks very much! Hope we cash in the Belmont!
I hope so, too!
Did a Win/Place on Just Steel. And Exacta Box with all except Mugatu and Seize.
My thinking, he had the toughest trip to the top of the derby stretch. D. Wayne decides to run and goes back to Rosario. Worth a roll.
We are truly going to see which ones can go in the mud today. “Dennis, there’s some lovely filth down here!”
Lol!
Interesting for someone who can talk all day,Repole said little since Derby.
Just about Nest retiring. Probably gearing up to get back at it soon.
I tried/super boxed Mystik Dan with the fresh horses Uncle Heavy, Tuscan Gold, Imagination and safe trips, safe home for horses and riders!…
Amen!
Mystic Fan, Catching Freedom, Tuscan Gold
Safe racing everyone!
The current top two favorites are Mystik Dan and Catching Freedom, both ran hard races two weeks ago….
M.D. is the winner!
I have no idea who’s going to win this Preakness and unlike in the Derby, I have no emotional attachment to any of the horses. I also don’t bet unless I go to the track. So the question arises–who do I cheer for? I could pick anybody, and this may be a good time for a longshot. Uncle Heavy won the Withers in the mud, and I’d like to see Irad win a Triple Crown race this year because he hasn’t won enough of them for someone of his ability. But whatever happens, I’ll fare better than I did in the Derby because nobody’s going to run fifteenth. So go, Uncle Heavy.
By the way, I did get to rewatch the Wood Memorial, spill and all. I’m still a VHS person and I often tape races. So I just had to look up my tape. Of course, there was only one camera angle and camera angles can be very deceiving. But a horse did go down just inches away from Uncle Heavy, who appeared to be close to running over him. He didn’t have to pull back but the incident did interfere with his stretch run, presumably both physically and emotionally. I doubt that he would have caught the leaders no matter what, but he would have been a lot closer. Whether any of that affects the Preakness remains to be seen, but I was glad I could watch it.
Thrilled with Witty’s second place in the turf “sprint,” aka slog! We loved Caravel around here, and he is her little half brother, still owned and trained by Elizabeth Merryman. With a little Secretariat: 5S x 5D.
Seize The Grey all day!
Well done Blake, the Elephant stamp and golden star are yours. For a second I thought Catching Freedom might have the momentum to reach Seize the Grey but to no avail.
Originally he was 40-1. I was going to put $250 to win on him. But with the Muth scratch he odds dropped and when I checked yesterday afternoon he was 8-1 which irritated me. I needed to deposit money into my Twin Spires account but said screw it and didn’t bet. Oh well.
Better luck, next time. I can see your point though, 8-1 would have seemed absurd to me as well.
Race ten sun out and they opened up the track..
Lynda, your girl Fluffy Socks looked great!
Just saw that Katy on Twitter!
I am thrilled!!!
So, so happy!
I have many horse player friends, and they all, every one like Tuscan Gold! So perhaps he ends up favorite, or close to it?…
Lemmings. lol.
After watching several youtube videos analysis of the upcoming Preakness and reading also several too I am baffled and perplexed about the amount of support Tuscan Gold is getting from the pundits for some in this column Here is a horse that hasn’t run in 8 weeks only shows a string of 4 furlong workouts and only run in 3 lifetime races (granted one is at the distance he is going to run in the Preakness) but times of those races is nothing write home about but most important the Preakness is probably going to be run on an off track and this is something this horse has never faced. Now maybe this horse takes to the slop like a duck on water but this is such an unknown and yet all these pundits know this and still jumping on his bandwagon like he is a sure thing. He doesn’t look like he has the speed to go to the lead but let say he does can he do it for this whole race my thinking he doesn’t The only way I see him winning is coming from the clouds at the very end but the big question is can he take all the mud in his face before that ( does the jockey keep him wide throughout the race, perhaps?) ? Also can he handle an off track ? His pedigree says he might be able too but again I see others in this race that have handled this adversity and that is were I will be looking. Right now I am not a believer in Tuscan Gold for this race. Again this is just my opinion.
Track could be fast, there’s three hours between dirt races before the Preakness, Pimlico will be working on the surface, and if it clears like predicted, you never know. ..Mystik Dan ran poorly, on a 14-day between races pattern last year, and he left a lot of feed in his bucket, after The Derby ….fresh horses have an edge ….
Tuscan Gold moves up for me on a fast track but still think he has to come from well off the pace. MYSTIK DAN when he lost after 2 weeks was found afterwards to be sick. Hope that won’t be the case this time. KD should have made him more fit in my opinion. Expecting Seize the Grey to push pace with Imagination
Happy Preakness morning, everyone!
According to Bloodhorse, as of 10:30 am Eastern time, the main track was listed as good. Rain expected during the morning and possibly in the afternoon.
Looks a bit sloppy out there, all right.
Interesting Steve!!
One of the commentators on TVG/FanDuel said yesterday that the favorite hadn’t won the BlackEyed Susan since Royal Delta in 2011. I’ll take her word for it, though that was surprising to hear. Gun Song immediately ended that streak by winning the BES as a solid 2-1 favorite getting one of those beautiful Johnny V rides on the pace that Steve Haskin and a few of us were talking about before the Derby.
As I mentioned last week, the favorite hasn’t won the Preakness since Justify in 2018. Five consecutive favorites have lost since then. After looking at the BES/Preakness DD will pays, I wonder which horse goes off favored? It has to be the Derby winner. Doesn’t it? Maybe. But Tuscan Gold seems like the wise guy horse, Catching Freedom always makes his run, and BB owns Pimlico when he comes to town. So, who knows?
Speaking of Steve Haskin’s “Karma angle”, wouldn’t Chad Brown & Tyler Gaffalione fall into that category after getting “nosed” in the Derby when getting leaned on by one of the Japanese horses for most of the stretch run? Now, I know what you are thinking. Who was leaning on who? Well, I needed Sierra Leone in the Derby for a pretty nice payoff. So, I may have seen that stretch run a little differently than most.
Hopefully, no controversies after today’s Preakness. Good luck and have fun today.
More on the BlackEyed Susan/Preakness $1 DD payoffs with Gun Song:
Tuscan Gold $15
Catching Freedom $15.30
Imagination $17.10
Mystik Dan $17.60
Just Steel $49
Seize the Grey $57.20
Uncle Heavy $102.30
Mugatu $354.20
Very interesting. Tuscan Gold is actually the favorite in this pool. Just barely. Way overbet IMO.
Mystik Dan pays the highest of the four fancied runners. Not by much though.
It will also be interesting to see if the post time odds fall into line with this DD pool.
Steve, not sure why but your thoughts that: “I just want to get it over with and move on to the Belmont Stakes at Saratoga” are very similar to my feelings about the Preakness Stakes as well.
It’s hard to get enthusiastic about the race when there seems no buzz around and then Muth is scratched so that bit of excitement is taken away as well. If it’s a sloppy track the interest will less than minimal.
Something has to be done to revive the Preakness Stakes, it lacks the luster it once had with most trainers avoiding the race with their top performers after having run in the Kentucky Derby.
Good luck and safe trips to all. Catching Freedom can pull it off with a decent trip.
I think Thorpedo Anna might be going…..
For the Belmont Stakes? That would be fun. There was talk that Mindframe might be headed that way as well.
I ended up playing Uncle Heavy, who was 7-1 when I played him…Am thinking he might climb up to 8-1, 9-1 tomorrow! Rooting for Mystik Dan! Betting Uncle Heavy….
Brian Hernandez with a nice ride on Pyrenees in the Pimlico Special! Beat my 2023 Derby horse, Kingsbarns.
I like the way Brian talks about his mounts.
Should have picked Pyrenees, have a Great Pyrennes dog named Ima Happy Dog.
My husband had Pyrenees to honor our late Aussie x Pyrenees. He also liked the blaze.
I wasn’t familiar with that breed Lynda, so looked them up. They look gorgeous and project a happy disposition. True? The name sure suggests it.
Great Pyrs are livestock guardian breed. Yes, very laid back disposition. I got her at 8 weeks, named her Ima Happy Dog because she is happy all the time. Never a bad, never grumpy, very sweet and very gentle. They are protective of their families and their home.
I want Mystik Dan to win, no matter the track. Team Dan is a pretty good collection of folks who know what a Preakness-ready horse should look like – even if Swiss Skydiver was pandemic year. Curlin, with Robbie A. up, was not – but that was a little bit of a different time in racing. Another factor is that my Dad will be heartbroken if I don’t stay with him on Dan. We usually like the Derby horse – he always wants to see another Triple Crown.
Catching Freedom and Uncle Heavy ought to come running, hopefully cleanly and without interfering with anyone. We’ve seen CF close to win even when they went pretty slowly, and at this distance. My daughter says she likes Uncle Heavy.
I could not argue that an Arrogate might really be getting good this time of year. Interesting that Seize the Grey’s campaign and management are about the exact opposite of Archangelo’s.
I think Imagination will have to find a deeper well to get this won. In his stakes races, he seems to like a buddy in the stretch, and he doesn’t seem to care whether he gets there in front, just so long as they can run near each other. Even with blinkers, he wants to look at the horse he’s near. In their 5/10 work, he stuck his nose in front of Muth at the wire, but needed some urging to do it, and to stay with Muth in the gallop-out. He let Stronghold by, and Stronghold wasn’t up to handling our Derby grads, so I am not a believer yet. Frankie has the grit and hot hand. Just not sure Imagination is better than our east coast kids. But this is why they run – to find out. He also stands to distract another horse on the lead to allow the closers/stalkers to nip them.
Tuscan Gold: Great pedigree. Plain dark bay in Chad Brown’s barn. He wants to run away from the rest, and has in his wins. Plus, like the Baffert colts, he has trained to this race. Definitely, significantly, legitimately live for this race. I would like for Medaglia D’Oro to have a good, Classic-winning colt to carry on his line.
I really think it will rain. The Farmer’s Almanac seems to be predicting a really wet summer on the East Coast, and we are feeling it in the South so far. My hay guy hasn’t had the chance to cut, it has rained so frequently!
My mistake – TG initially was heading to the Peter Pan, and I forgot. But still a race in this timeframe.
Mystik Dan, Catching Freedom and Tuscan Gold my picks.
I’m in!
Just a question – does Frankie pay Angel Cordero a commission every time he does the flying dismount?
LOL
Angel needed a TM.
Congratulations to Gun Song !
Was hoping she would win.
Peacock would not load, did not get to watch.
Nice filly!
Yes she is.
Legendary Quarter Horse rider G R Carter did a back flip flying dismount….
Wow! That’s a lot to get done when you are working with 60-66 inches.
If I read the BlackEyed Susan/Preakness daily double probables correctly, it looks like Catching Freedom and Tuscan Gold both will return $15 for $1. Co-favorites???
Mystic Dan and Imagination both $17 for $1. All pretty close.
You’d have had to play one of the other 4 horses to get a good payoff.
Watching some gallop videos of Preakness contenders from the past few days, I was struck by how much their hooves on the wet track sounded like hooves on cobblestones.
I think who wins in the Preakness is dependent on the weather.
Good luck everyone.
My only complaint with Tuscan Gold is that everyone and his brother is seemingly picking the horse. 9-2 on the new Morning Line. That price might hold as I expect him to be the 4th choice. The Derby winner will surely take money. A BB horse with a legendary rider will take more than his share of betting action. Especially, a horse that looks like a lonely leader. Catching Freedom always makes his run and wasn’t too far behind Mystik Dan in Louisville.
I see Counter Point’s “point” that Seize the Grey could be up on the pace. I even think that his Pat Day Mile win just 2 weeks ago will have him primed to do just that. However, even though I don’t care for Imagination, I know that horse. I know that he will battle into the stretch and the 2 quicksters could set it up for Mystik Dan, Catching Freedom, and Tuscan Gold.
On “off” track could change everything. Imagination has never raced on anything other than “fast”. Probably hasn’t even trained over a wet track. You know how they are in California. They cancel the races if sprinkles are even in the forecast. No offense. I was a Californian for the first 59 years of my life. Seize the Grey has won on “sloppy” and run 3rd on “muddy”. Smart Strike on his Dam side points him out as a horse that should love the “off” going. With the MyRacehorse mob and Counter Point’s huge wagers on him, can his 15-1 morning line possibly hold up? Maybe.
My bets are in flux. I want to see what the track looks like tomorrow and the scratches.
LOL. Ok, I know he’s a gymnastic talent but if Dettori does win he better not leap off that pony or he’ll end up on his franky fanny in a pile of slop.
I am looking forward to Mystik Dan putting on a clinic especially if we do get the expected off track. I can’t imagine it happening any other way and besides, that would make the Wood extra exciting and we need that for the sport.
Safe trips for them all and enjoy the Porta Party in Maryland everyone.
Heehee. Great post!
I wouldn’t want to be there for the world. My sofa is so soft, and my very own bathroom always gets cleaned on Saturday.
I’m sticking with Tuscan Gold. Like Counter Point, I had TG in the Derby futures @ 81-1. When I saw that TG was in the Preakness futures opening @ 30-1, I jumped in with $20 (would have been more if I hadn’t been wiped out in the Derby). He closed @ 17-1 which is still significantly more than I can expect on Saturday. You go, Golden Boy!
My future wager on Tuscan Gold was doomed when he jumped leads close home and relinquished 2nd to Honor Marie. With his likely start in the Preakness, I am presented with an opportunity to recoup losses. However, his likely starting price is now less appealing, and I will seek to make money by defeating him. Probably not wise but I am prepared to take the gamble
The last 33 running of the Preakness resulted in 32 winners whose last out start was either 9F or 10F. The sole winner that didn’t fit this profile was Berardini. He exited the 8F Withers with a victory in a fast 1:35.07.
Of the likely 8 starters in the Preakness only Seize the Grey will enter the Preakness with a last out start over 8F. He exits the Pat Day Mile with a victory in a quick 1:35.96. It has been 18 years since Bernardini scored his 12/1 upset win in the Preakness.
It might not be apparent but Seize the Grey could very well be the fastest entrant in the field. No! I haven’t lost my mind. The PDM featured some of the fastest internal fractions recorded in mile race for 3YO males i.e., 22.12; 44.59; 1:09.48. Seize the Grey was in the thick of things from he off and was the strongest at the end of those who contested the pace.
The KD pace was expected to be slower given it distance. The internal fractions were 22.97; 46.63; 1:11.31. The 4F & 6F fractions in the PDM were approximately 2 second faster.
Here is where I can be classified to be crazy. If the Preakness fractions are similar to those in the KD. Seize should be in a slow canter without tapping into his energy resources. Even if he is stamina challenged, he should be able to be in contention turning for home and have plenty left to stave of the late closers.
The KD was a tough race, The three entrants exiting the KD should be found wanting in the last furlong, particularly Mystik Dan.
I do not consider the likes of Tuscan Gold and Imagination fast enough to trouble Seize the Grey early. Both lack explosive late race acceleration and might not be able to get by him in the lane.
In addition to Seize the Grey’s speed. What other positives does the colt possess? He should possess stamina for the TC races. His sire was a routing monster. His dam sire Smart Stike has a connection with Pimlico being the sire of Preakness winners Curlin and Lookin At lucky.
Add being dam sire of KD winners Rich Strike and Mine That Bird and Seize the Grey biggest positive could be Smart Strike as dam sire, particularly if the race is contested on an off track.
Just Steel has been defeated by a combined 56 1/4L in his last 5 starts. Why is Wayne Lukas running this colt in the Preakness?
The colt has won twice from 12 starts. He has raced with blinkers in all 12 starts. How would this colt perform without the headgear?
I would recommend Mr. Lukas revisit Will Take Charge’s form line after the blinkers were removed after he was defeated a combined 40L in the TC races.
Mystic Dan for the win!
I think Mystik Dan will be fairly forwardly placed, as he won his maiden just off the lead in a fast paced race. They won’t let Imagination stay on the lead without running at him at some point. I don’t know about the others, they might not make it near the front. I’ve never been a Catching Freedom fan and don’t expect to see him in the exacta. It could be those two and several lengths back to the rest.
Loved this column, Steve. You are absolutely right that Baffert horses go to the lead and don’t look back — and most of them are good enough to hang on for the win. That was certainly the case with National Treasure, who wasn’t particularly highly regarded at the time he won the Preakness. If there is a speed duel between Mystik Dan and Imagination, I see Catching Freedom rolling in for the win. Which would delight me no end.
Come on Ms. Blacktype,
Some are caught if that equates to look back.
Bodemiester went to the lead and was caught by I’ll Have Another in both the KD & Preakness,
Pioneerof the Nile was on the lead in the 2009 KD when Mine That Bird ran by
Medina Spirit was on the lead in the Preakness and 2 of his opponents ran by
National Treasure was on the lead from the off in the BC Dirt Mile and Cody’s Wish inched by
Hejazi went to the lead in the Fred Hooper and was passed by 3 opponents.
American Pharoah went to the lead in the Travers and was passed late by Keen Ice.
That’s a good post, you forget about Bob’s horses that get passed, it does seem like his horses rebreak, on the stretch…his good ones ….I recall Nadal at Arkansas (remember Nadal?)….he looked beaten from going too fast but he found more, they work fast—Imagination is a nice colts, I can’t put a finger on him but to me he just looks funny…unbalanced, in a way ….I know a good looking horse when I see one….Tuscan Gold is skinny but he’s nicely balanced, with a large frame that “promises” more, when he fills out…..Imagination is a tryer that doesnt inspire….
Correct!
Steve,
Your analysis of the Preakness is pretty much the way I see it but some how I see JUST STEEL creeping in there for part of the mutuals. But if there was one trainer that I wished had a little “imagination” that would have been for horse that is not even entered in the Preakness but I feel should have been and that is Deterministic. When I was watching the Peter Pan last Saturday I was wondering if it would be raining that day as New York had been getting some rain recently but a last it came up dry and as it turned out Deterministic ran last most of the race. But at the sametime I was looking at the weather forecast for the Preakness it was 35% to 50% for rain. If I was C Clement after the Peter Pan I would have checked out Deterministic and if he checked out OK I would have entered him in the Preakness on Monday with the hope the rain chances would be increasing as the weekend got closer and as of this morning it looks like a 90% chance of rain. Deterministic effort last Saturday could not have taken too much out of him in fact I would have looked at it as a glorified workout, and this horse loves the mud. If the track came up dry he could always scratched the morning of the race. Again you have to look at opportunities and take advantage of them when you have them and in this case it is a once in a lifetime chance for the owners and horse.
Now back to the Preakness I will probably be playing an exact key with Mystik Dan first and 2nd. with Imagination, Just Steel, Seize the Grey and Catching Freedom . I may add Tuscan Gold depending on how he looks. Good Luck to all.
Imagination certainly has the pedigree to do well in the Preakness, even a little Halo for good measure. For sure Storm Cat, that black brown color.
Two things though…I have a hard time supporting million dollar plus babies with all those owners and all that parphanelia he has on his head; the cruel ring bit, tongue tie down, shadow roll and blinkers. But then that is just me.
I understand what your saying Steve but just going to stick with Mystic Dan for the win.
Good luck everyone with your selections, safe racing for all. Hope that rain does a “rain, rain go away, come back some other day. “
Sorry, Mystik Dan
No need to be sorry…Dan has already won on s dry, fast track…he doesnt depend on rain ..he just runscwellnon both…a 101 beyer is a 101 beyer rain or shine…
Sorry you didnt get the tongue-in-cheek aspect of the entire column.
A little fuzzy headed these days. I do not do well with pain meds.
Oh man, Lynda, I hate that you are still hurting!
Tks Katy
Sending healing wishes to you, Lynda!
Thank you arlingtonfan
Am playing Peter Eurton’s fully, in the Black Eyed Susan/Preakness Double to Imagination, Uncle Heavy, Mystik Dan, Tuscan Gold —-not so big of a payout, maybe Corposo might climb some, from her tepid 5/2 favoritism, she’s training very well….
McPeek, Brown, Lukas all expressing disappointment in the Muth scratch, that’s trainers for you! Trainers know how hard it is, for everything to go right–Bob wanted this Preakness, he still has a good shot at it but like you said the race now is wide open….
They have all had something like this happen, no doubt. In a Classic, you want the horse you enter to go against – and beat – the best. Not to mention, where is the pace going to come from now? Imagination? Dan? All these boys are running horses who have done their best as stalkers.
Calling the horse on the lead early: “Bueller?… Bueller?… Bueller?”
Having watched Frankie the master … He likes to be close to the pace, he WILL be close to the pace on Saturday….he has a couple of other good mounts on Saturday. .
Steve-is it “just your imagination (running away with you)”…with apologies to the Temptations for a slightly altered version.
Actually, I agree with you. Imagination, never worse than second in six starts, is two necks shy of a five race winning streak. And his works say he is ready.
Mr. Haskin, your picture at the top of the column looks great and I’m happy that you added it.
I don’t like Imagination, but your description of the race put a clear picture in my head of Frankie Dettori putting the BB trainee right on the lead and going wire-to-wire followed by the flying dismount. I can actually see it. Now, what do I do about it?
I’ve lost my excitement about this Preakness Day card. My goal will be to maintain a healthy bankroll for the Belmont at Saratoga which should be a very big day.
It sure wasnt my idea to use my photo. But that is the one photo I’m OK with.
Gosh, Steve your four horses are my four horses, including Uncle Heavy with his low Beyer numbers, who is working well! Imagination gets into a lot of battles, and is doing good, I’m not going to unload the wallet on him though, unlike most of Bob’s Brigade, he finishes 2nd more often than 1st….
I like how your mind works Steve. Sometimes we need a different perspective. It’s a shame that Muth spiked a fever. Which brings me to thinking of old blue eyes, Riding high in “April and shot down in May.” That’s horse racing yet nothing stopping him from being ” back on top in June”