Return of a Champion
Return of a Champion
By Steve Haskin
It’s been a while since I’ve gotten goosebumps watching a race; even the replay of the race. So why, after rooting for Sovereignty throughout his 3-year-old campaign, did I get goosebumps from his victory in the Whitney?
Then I remembered what I wrote in a recent column about my most emotional races and experiences in racing, and how I got goosebumps watching Forego’s 1977 Woodward Stakes victory, and it hit me. We love when our heroes win and never want to see them get beat. But because people in general can often relate to vulnerability more than invincibility, we tend to get more emotional when our heroes display the resilience to rebound from adversity. That is when their true character surfaces and they often become even more heroic.
In Forego’s case, he had lost three races in a row at the age of 7 and was coming off the only bad defeat of his career in the Whitney, run over a very sloppy track, which he despised. To see him bounce back the way he did on a wet track in the Woodward, and hear track announcer Chic Anderson say on the far turn, “he’s gonna run today, folks,” struck a deep emotional chord that even his greatest victories failed to do.
We saw the legendary Secretariat rebound not once, but three times off defeats, with memorable victories in the Kentucky Derby, Marlboro Cup, and Man o’ War Stakes, all in record time. He showed that defeat does not diminish greatness if you can bounce back from it and take your career to a new level. Zenyatta won 19 races in 19 starts, but none could compare to the outpouring of love that followed her first and only defeat in the 2010 Breeders’ Cup Classic. How many of us fell more in love with Thorpedo Anna after her gutsy performance in defeat to defending champion Fierceness in the Travers? How many are now bigger fans of Nitrogen than they were before the Whitney?
Tiznow’s career looked to be spiraling downward the year after his gallant victory in the 2000 Breeders’ Cup Classic. But to see him rebound off three defeats and defend America in the 2001 Classic by outgaming the Prix de l’Arc Triomphe winner Sakhee in the wake of 9/11 made him a true hero who is still idolized. And who didn’t raise Seattle Slew to an even higher plateau, especially on an emotional level, after his courageous nose defeat to Exceller in the 1978 Jockey Club Gold Cup, and then cheer wildly when he then won his career finale under 134 pounds?
We saw Affirmed rebound off four consecutive defeats to win his last seven races in 1979 and regain his place in history and in people’s hearts. It was the same when Spectacular Bid finished a game second to Affirmed in The Jockey Club Gold Cup coming off an illness and then elevated himself into the realm of the all-time greats by winning his last 10 starts. We can even go back to the great Citation, who after being invincible at ages 2 and 3, returned a shell of his former self after a year layoff, getting beat an astonishing 11 times. But just when his career appeared over he bounced back to win his last three starts, giving everybody one final look at the old Citation. And finally, as popular as Kelso was throughout his long career when he ruled the sport, it was after his agonizing nose defeat to arch rival Gun Bow in the 1964 Woodward Stakes at age 7 that he truly displayed his greatness by refusing to give up his throne, winning his historic fifth Jockey Club Gold Cup and then defeating Gun Bow in world record time in the Washington D.C. International to nail down his fifth Horse of the Year title, a feat that will never be duplicated.
These were our greatest heroes, and all of them were defined by their ability to bounce back from defeat, proving that perfection does not necessarily define greatness, a term which is far more complex than we think. I am obviously not putting Sovereignty in that class, at least not yet. But all I know is that, as thrilling as his victories in the Kentucky Derby, Belmont, Jim Dandy, and Travers were, it was not knowing what to expect in the Whitney following two defeats and then seeing the old Sovereignty return and dominate a star-studded field that set off those old goosebumps again. It also conjured up images of the aforementioned past greats, and reminded me just what made them so great. It was something inside them other than their God-given talent that helped propel them to new heights.
So much for the thought-provoking aspect of the Whitney. The facts show us that since Sovereignty rose to prominence in the Kentucky Derby and stamped himself as one of the most talented and awe-inspiring horses of recent years, he was able to maintain an air of invincibility. That was until he returned this year from an illness that kept him out of the Breeders’ Cup Classic. He was given legitimate excuses in his return in the Oaklawn Handicap when he was forced to set the pace; something that was extremely foreign to him. Although he was able turn back Journalism, he had no answer for the 7-year-old former Breeders’ Classic winner White Abarrio who ran right by him. But when he came back and finished an uncharacteristically dull third in the Stephen Foster Stakes in the slop, lacking his usual explosive late kick, people began to wonder if he had reached his peak at 3 or simply was no longer the same dynamic colt we saw last year.
Just to stick to the facts from this past Saturday, the two horses who had defeated him this year — White Abarrio in the Oaklawn Handicap and Magnitude in the Stephen Foster — finished 17 1/2 lengths and 15 1/4 lengths behind him, respectively, in the Whitney. The only other horse to finish ahead of him — his stablemate Baeza — finished “only” six lengths behind him. Just when it seemed as if Sovereignty was on his way to another defeat, falling back to last heading to the half-mile pole, he transformed back into that explosive powerhouse we saw last year. With that familiar big sweeping move, he quickly began closing in on the leaders with every stride, blazing his next quarter in a sensational :23 flat and then overpowering everyone with a final three-eighths in :36 4/5 to complete the 1 1/8 miles, which is not his best distance, in a scintillating 1:47 4/5 and drawing off to win by almost five lengths over the brilliant and versatile filly Nitrogen. By doing so he earned a sensational Beyer speed figure of 112.
With his four feet high off the ground, Sovereignty is all alone at the finish of the Whitney Stakes.
Sovereignty had become the first Kentucky Derby winner to capture the Whitney since Carry Back in 1962. To save you the math, that is 64 years. One has to remember that he went into the Whitney having been three-for-three at 1 1/4 miles and only one-for-four at 1 1/8 miles, and in that one nine-furlong victory in the Jim Dandy Stakes he was all out the length of the stretch to beat Baeza by a length. He is a true classic mile and a quarter horse, but proved he could crush one of the most talented fields assembled in years at a distance shorter than his best.
So there you have the facts of the Whitney, as we now anxiously await a potential showdown in The Jockey Club Gold Cup with the Japanese titan Forever Young, who won last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic with Sovereignty on the sidelines. What better arena for such a monumental battle than the new Belmont Park on its opening day.
I conclude by saying once again, to me the Whitney was not about facts, not about historical achievements or speed figures. It was about the ability to move people with one’s resilience and fortitude. As F. Scott Fitzgerald said, “Never confuse a single defeat with a final defeat.” Citation had 11 single defeats, but refused to let any of them be his final defeat. Sovereignty felt two defeats were enough. With many people skeptical he was the same horse as last year, this was the time to reach deep inside and find himself. As they say, “once a champion, always a champion.”
Who knows, maybe Forever Young will prove to be simply the better horse. But that will never take away from what we saw and felt in the Whitney, because despite all his victories at 3, that is when we got to know the real Sovereignty.
Deterministic, Indeed
At the other end of the spectrum we have a horse who, unlike Sovereignty, is seemingly still on his way to his first championship and has proven to be a winning machine, which in that case is always the best way to get there. And in the process he is using his unrelenting determination to elevate the normally lesser talked about Breeders’ Cup Mile to a must-see race.
In many ways, Deterministic’s honesty and doggedness in winning Saturday’s Fourstardave Stakes, his sixth consecutive graded stakes victory, embodies the horse for whom the race is named. Four of those six graded victories were Grade 1, and he has now pushed his career earnings over the $3 million mark. And like Sovereignty, there was a great deal of emotion that surrounded the race, as it came one day after his late trainer Christophe Clement was inducted into racing’s Hall of Fame. Clement died last year on May 25, and it was Deterministic who gave his son Miguel his first Grade 1 winner two weeks later in the Manhattan Handicap.
Determinstic, all business as usual with his ears pinned back, draws clear to win the Fourstardave Stakes.
The reason I consider Deterministic so special is the way he totally changed the course of his career, going from a serious Kentucky Derby contender to ultimately become the nation’s most dominant mile turf horse. The son of Liam’s Map burst upon the scene in the spring of 2024, winning the one-mile Gotham Stakes in the slop in only the second start of his career. But despite the off track, having only two starts, and not yet having gone two turns, I still ranked him No. 5 on my Derby Rankings behind the likes of Sierra Leone, Fierceness, and eventual Derby winner Mystik Dan. I had never done that before, especially with my often old-school way of thinking.
To explain such a bold move, which is an explanation that still holds true two years later, I wrote back them, “He will have only two races in nine months going into the Derby and would be the only one of the three victorious Derby horses with three lifetime starts to win off only a single two-turn race. Even with those obstacles, as well as an ankle chip that delayed his debut, I still consider him a very serious Derby horse for one main reason. He has already shown he can accomplish things he shouldn’t be able to and has a great mind, a toughness about him, a cat-like quickness, and the ability to overcome anything thrown at him. And that is why I am confident this colt can do just about anything that is asked of him.”
That was Deterministic then after only two starts, and that is Deterministic two years and 15 starts later, as he ran his typical race in the Fourstardave, either dogging or setting the pace and just out-running and out-willing every one of his opponents to the wire. In his last five starts, his 1 1/2-length score in the Fourstardave was his largest margin of victory. In other words, he still does anything that is asked of him and is smart enough to know the best way to go about it.
But just who is Deterministic and where did he come from? Every year, his breeders, Tom Hinkle, his brother Henry, and Tom’s daughter Anne assess the yearlings and individually place a value on them and then take the average. For the Keeneland September yearling sale, they budgeted Deterministic, who had always done everything the right way, at $150,000. When it came time for the sale they put a $199,000 reserve on him. But they noticed he was being shown a lot. Even back then, experienced horsemen saw something in him. Yes, he was by an exciting young stallion, out of a great female family, but buyers were attracted to him for other reasons. He moved so well and with great agility; he looked terrific physically; he had a terrific mind; and like he would prove in the Gotham, he made you notice him.
The Hinkles began to think they had something more than they bargained for. As Anne said, “When a yearling is shown that often they often become sour by sales time, but he was so professional right to the end.”
He wound up selling for $625,000 to St. Elias Stable, which was $426,000 over his reserve. Monique Delk, who heads the St. Elias team at the sale, said, “He was a ‘must have’ for us. As we do with all our inspections, I give each horse a grade of 1-to-5. That goes along with our physical and pedigree notes. There are very few 5’s, but he was one of them. And John Sparkman graded his pedigree with a high mark. He was a beautiful physical individual, very well balanced, and he looked extremely athletic with a smart eye. He checked all of our boxes.
“We’re also a strong supporter of the St. Elias stallion Liam’s Map, so given all those factors he became a must have, We’re very lucky to have acquired him. He is a brilliant horse who gives you everything he has each race, He has the heart of a lion, and in short, I love, love, love him!”
He would use all his attributes to overcome bone bruising and surgery to remove the ankle chip at 2 and burst onto the Derby scene late, making his presence felt immediately. The Derby trail didn’t work out, which turned out to be a blessing. Since Clement tried him on grass for the first time in the Grade 3 Manila Stakes on June 29, 2024, Deterministic has run 11 times on the turf with eight victories, two seconds, both by less than a length, and one third.
With Europeans having won five of the last six runnings of the Breeders’ Cup Mile, and Godolphin’s Charlie Appleby winning four of them, it most likely will be up to Determinstic to take on the role of America’s top defender.
Although it is still way too early to predict the field for the race, I can say at this point in time, from what I have seen from his Gotham victory to now and what I know about this horse, no matter who runs, I love, love, love him.
Photos by Coglianese Photo/NYRA/Angelo Lieto/Janet Napolitano/Susie Raisher/Chelsea Durand
Racing historian, author, and award-winning retired journalist for the Daily Racing Form and The Blood-Horse, Steve Haskin was inducted into the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame’s Media Roll of Honor in 2016. Known for his racing knowledge and insightful prose, he has been an exclusive contributor to Secretariat.com since 2020.
I took a picture of my wife who was a marathon runner that is exactly like the picture of Sovereignty in the Whitney with all his feet off the ground. Obviously, my wife with just her two feet off the ground. I’m very proud of that picture even though it was blind luck. There is no way that I could have planned it that way. She has been gone for over 9 years, but that picture will last the rest of my life.
Chad Brown says that Flavien Prat will ride Sea Strike in the Travers instead of Emerging Market. He didn’t name a rider for Emerging Market yet.
Emerging Market was going to be my longshot play in the Travers. I liked his prep race when he was wide all the way around the track against older horses. I still might play Emerging Market if Brown puts Manny Franco on him. Manny has been pretty hot this entire Saratoga meet and is riding as consistently well as I have ever seen him.
Franco instead of Prat will certainly help the price. That exact situation happened just the other day when Manny Franco won with Survie as Prat ended up on a Klaravich runner.
EM was my longshot pick 5 seconds after they crossed the finish line. But Prat had to choose Sea Strike. His ceiling is too high not to.
Sorry about your wife. Treasure that photo.
Despite Renegade’s blasting past him, in the Jim Dandy…I think Brad’s colt Commandment may be better, at ten furlongs, the horse that can’t keep a rider!…
Luster did Knicks Go proud today, beating the boys (and another filly) to win the King’s Plate by 7 1/4 lengths!
Very impressive win by the Flightline colt, Inshallah. He is one fast horse and should relish going long. His dam side is loaded with stamina and class influence,
Yes, Bill, it’s nice to finally see a really good colt by Flightline emerge. I’ll be interested in seeing how he progresses.
Seemed like Brant II, to me…..5 1/2 furlongs, had a brilliant turn of foot…(I heard his work was better than his race)….Rosario found himself with a five length lead….tiring noticible, down the short Del Mar stretch…90 Beyer so he’s fast—Im sure he showed speed, before his auction, but he did look like he was spent….
“Tiring” or geared down? I would say the latter.
Check out Inshallah’s dam side.
White Abarrio and his goat friend Brownie have arrived at Gainesway Farm.
Could not help shedding a couple of tears for this beautiful unicorn.
Will miss him so much!
Best wishes for a long, happy and healthy life and success in the breeding shed.
Some horses just have a place in my heart and White Abarrio is one!
I’m glad Brownie is with him!
He sure gave us a lot of thrills over the years. Wishing him all the best in his new career.
Lynda, he really does look like a unicorn, doesn’t he? Fits the picture in my mind perfectly (minus the horn).
I couldn’t agree more. I too am really going to miss White Abarrio. He had terrible luck so many times but he kept coming back and doing big things at an age when most stakes horses are long retired. When we talk about goosebumps, the race this year that gave me the most goosebumps was his Oaklawn Stakes. I loved watching him put away that field. He’s earned a happy retirement, and I hope he gets lots of good mares and lots of babies with careers as long and courageous as his.
Amen 🙏 what a fun ride ! Look
Forward to his kids winning
The title of this article and watching Mr. A. P. win at Del Mar on Thursday revived my anticipation for the much awaited return of champion Ted Noffey.
The two races of Mr. A. P. this year (albeit on grass) after an eight-month layoff validate the class of his conqueror Ted Noffey in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile.
Ted Noffey had his first official workout last Monday at Saratoga and the had two preliminary workouts at Ian Brennan’s farm in Ocala. Ted Noffey needed six months to heal and he looks very good in the mornings.
Other champion 2-year-old colts that come to mind having similar situation to Ted Noffey’s are Macho Uno and Declan’s Moon, also undefeated as a 2-year-old. The former won the Pennsylvania Derby and the Massachusets Handicap after recovering and the latter never regained form after coming back from an injury while winning the Santa Catalina Stakes in his 3-year-old debut.
Also, I can’t help it remembering the undefeated 2-year-old champion, Shared Belief, who missed the Triple Crown series due to a severe foot injury. He came back at the end of May 2014 and proved to be a true champion until his untimely demise a year later.
Ted Noffey could be ready to resume late October or November but he will very likely be primed for an outstanding campaign next year. It would be nice to have him running as a 4-year-old especially knowing that the current top 3-year-olds will be heading to the more profitable breeding arena by year end.
Nelson, I’m right with you on Ted Noffey and Mr. A.P. The return of those two should make for an interesting fall. Just wish one of them was ready for the Travers, but there are other races on the horizon. Hope both race as four year olds.
Shared Belief just missed his chance to be a great one, in my opinion. I really believed in that horse!
Thanks for the reply Ms B…
Interesting to me is seeing how avoiding the grind of the Triple Crown could benefit a superior runner like Ted Noffey.
It is an “experiment” we’ve witnessed before i.e. Tiznow, Ghostzapper, Flightline, Arrogate, Cody’s Wish, West Coast, Knicks Go, Accelerate, Blame, and Honor Code among other champios who did not compete in the TC.
Sometimes it is a “blessing in disguise”…
There have been many strong BC Classic winners, on the past ten years….Shared Belief wasn’t able to get his Classic victory (Bayern!)…..but Shared Belief was truly an outlier! Small…..bad paddle…..and talent! As a gelding ….we lost out on something special….and in the end it was not his paddling stride, but colic, that got him..(although Mike eased him, in his final start)…
Nick Zito just won a maiden race at Saratoga. He was in tears in the winners’ circle. He hadn’t won there in a long time. He seems to be a bit of a tragedy of the current racing climate, but he’s still here. I didn’t bet the race, but Nick made my day. A good guy.
I’m so glad he had a Saratoga winner!
So happy for him!
It’s incredibly nice to see nick zito. In the winners circle !! Strike the Gold and Go for Gin and Louie Quartoze great memories good luck Nick
Steve
I realize you’re a very busy man, but I was just wondering if you received Hughes’ Thoro-Graph number for his Best Pal performance?
Thanks, Steve.
11….6 1/4
Many thanks, Steve. I expected a lower number. Possibly, that number will improve in his next outing, (Del Mar Futurity). We’ll see.
I am a little disappointed in those numbers too !!! I guess since it was a Baffert trained horses he should have run a 108 flat and won by 15 lengths !!!
I did too. It looked faster.
Speaking of two year olds, I hear Zedan won’t be 💨 NG at Del Mar ..maybe they’re going to debut him on Breeders Cup Weekend?…
I hope he doesn’t turn into another Representing !!! Baffert said when got him to the West Coast he was kicking down the barn.. .. . I wonder what has changed?!?!
ATTN: Downthestretch
In a prior comment, you mentioned that you’re always anxious to see any Flightline filly or colt run. Upper Echelon, by Flightline, out of Lady Scarlet (winner of the G3 Miss Preakness) by Union Rags, is set to debut at Saratoga, on Saturday 8-15 (R2).
He opened at 5-1, but I doubt he’ll remain at those odds at post time.
He could be something special. We’ll see.
Thanks Bill for letting me know this. I will be watching. Hoping Flightline will pass on his greatness to one of his sons or daughters
You’re welcome, DTS
I’m looking forward to Inshallah’s debut race on Saturday, at Del Mar (R7).
On Sunday, 8-9, he breezed 4 furlongs in 47:00, (3/91), so it appears that John Saddler has him primed for his initial outing. Joel Rosario, who’s having a nice meet at Del Mar, will be in the irons. It comes as no surprise that Inshallah is the morning line favorite, at 2-1.
Good luck, DTS.
That is a nice work out for a two year. Sadler is not afraid to work a horse fast. We will see if if he has some stamina. As you said earlier Baffert has a couple of of well bred 2 year old in that same race
Ancient Title had fallen on hard times, when in Summer of 1977, age seven he romped in the Del Mar Invitational by seven lengths, paying 7-1….age eight he broke the Santa Anita track record for a mile and sixteenth, winning the San Pasquale…injured running second to Vigors, in the San Antonio….he returned at Del Mar in a six furlong allowance race, 1:08 and change easy victory—but that was it, he was injured, but at age eight he still had it….only made it to 11, he passed before the 1981 Del Mar Invitational, holding the track record that he broke in 77 by more than one full second….
Great article. I love that 77 Forego Woodward. Your description with the Chic Anderson’s call. Oh Steve you put me there. I grew up loving Forego and Seattle Slew but being a product of the west coast i never saw Forego run but I did witness Slews 77 Swaps Stakes and as a teenager I was disappointed. But for you to mention his 78 finale which was run on my 16th birthday gives me chills because I loved the Slew.
Thanks again.
Thanks John Im happy Slew gave you a special 16th birthday present. Did you ever read my story titled The Life and Death of Seattle Slew.? Lots of behind the scenes stuff.
Thanks for the info. I definitely will read it.
Hi John I was at Hollywood park that amazing day in 77. I was 17 the La radio stations were all giving directions to Hollywood park it was a huge event Hollywood park Gave out yellow Seattle slew t shirts and it was a sea of yellow I got there when the gates opened early to get a great spot to see the race and the roar and the chanting of slew slew slew was one I’ll never forget sadly it became chants of shoe shoe shoe as j o Tobin shocked with shoemaker but I’ll never forget that day of course the story was far from
Over with Slews incredible 4 year old season and his incredible stud career ! But that July day in 77 Slew! Slew! Slew !
I too, was at the ’77 Swaps Stakes, 68,000 on a sweltering hot day….Slew was saddled in the tunnel, he was allowed to skip the post parade, they took him directly to the backstretch….some people criticized this “favoritism”, but after the race that grandstand stood and cheered loudly, for our first undefeated Triple Crown Winner, a moment I’ll not forget …an afterward of dorts—Jean Cruget was replaced on Slew by Angel Cordero, and Cruget would always say his best mount was Hoist the Flag….even saying he would have thrashed Seattle Slew, and I felt bad about that, because Hoist the Flag never made it past the early 3yo prep races, while Slew proved he belonged in the pantheon of all time greats…
My grandfather worked at HP. The old totalisator tickets had SLEW written at the top of the tickets for the Swap Stakes. .I still have them. I was bummed out when he lost but was so happy with his 78 year that I forgot about that trouncing by Tobin. Something I’ll never forget. We were lucky on the west coast to see Affirmed and the Bid during their 4yo campaigns. I’ll never forget seeing Glorious Song winning the La Brea in a crazy fast time and then the day after watching Spectacular Bid win the Malibu in even a faster time. Both races were run at 7 furs. Man those were the days.
John…my brother and I clicked morning works ..Flying Paster was working up a storm, and Spectacular Bid was coming out of a long year (Bid was never turned out, during his 30-race career)….I believe ‘Paster was under 2-1, for The Malibu….he made his move, and then Biden came widest—he had a turn of foot like I never saw, Paster could KICK! Paster was a finisher, “noli contesto”!….
(Bid!)…..my spell check is a Democrat!)….
Ill never forget Fying Paster working a mile for trainer Gordon C Campbell. He worked in 1:33 3/5. Mr. Campbell said he couldn’t blow out a match after that work. I was at Sa for the 80 Strub Stakes. I believe the Bid ran 1 1/4 in 1;57 and change Flying Paster second Relaunch was 3rd. I was on the apron. What a horse.
Quick update: Current BC Mile favorite Bow Echo (3 yo) just retired…unfortunate…
Opera Ballo (5-1) now BC Mile futures favorite. Deterministic now 8-1, best-priced US horse…
Those UK betting sites update quickly!!
Inshallah, by Flightline, out of Bar of Gold, by Medaglia d’Oro, is set to debut at Del Mar on Saturday, 8-15 (race 7). He sold for $2.1 million at auction, so there’s been high expectations from the get-go. Flightline and Medaglia d’Oro need no introductions, but it should be pointed out that his dam, Bar of Gold won the BC Filly and Mare Sprint, at 67-1. To say his pedigree reflects an abundance of speed, class and stamina would be an understatement. Joel Rosario will be in the irons.
Always anxious to see any Flightline filly or colt run.
Thanks for the heads up Bill.
Very interesting race of high class debutants. I will watch it with great gusto.
Inshallah looks like a very precocious runner after watching the video of his breeze last May at the Fasig Tipton MidAtlantic show. He was the most expensive horse there by 725K above the second most expensive one.
Inshallah continues to show great speed in training and should be among the ML favorites.
Emancipation (Uncle Mo – Marley’s Freedom by Blame) and Domenici (Early Voting-Bruised Orange by City Zip) are very intriguing as well. They also look very fast and precocious to be contenders in the 5.5 furlong contest.
Any of them could be Breeder’s Cup material joining a group of nice prospects from the East.
Thanks for the reply, Nelson
Yes sir, you can never count out a 2yr. old colt in the Baffert barn. Emancipation could give Inshallah all he can handle.
Best of luck down the road, Nelson.
edit: Emancipate
Yes Bill … it is Emancipate instead of Emancipation.
My mind played a funny game after reading the other names in the field ..i.e. Articulation, Absolution, and Federation… lol
Nelson, Counting Stars’ CCAO was faster on Rags than all the TC races, and just barely slower than the FL and Ark Derbies, and Blue Grass
Her UST figure for the CCAO was greater than the TC races
I’m not sure what figures outside Beyer the boys got for the Jim Dandy
But, I think the goal for West Point is likely to win the Eclipse, plus winning the Acorn, CCAO, and Alabama would be a huge accomplishment.
I was intrigued at first by the possibility of her running in the Travers, but I want the Eclipse …and I think she has more to gain running in the Alabama
Great points Betsy.
The path for championship is well set for Counting Stars and the Travers, as you imply, is not that relevant for that goal especially if the 10 furlongs against the males harms her chances of winning…
Nelson, thanks!
Agree. And, although she’s a very big filly, a tough race in the Travers could take a lot out of her
Two things were confirmed for me in the Whitney.
One, that’s two up-the-track finishes for Magnitude at Saratoga. It can’t be coincidence that his two worst races since his debut both came at Saratoga. I’ll conclude he doesn’t like it there, either the track or his surroundings.
Two, Sovereignty definitely needs to be more off the pace. Even if there is none.
Clownskill,
I will agree with you on both points. Something (especially about Sovereignty) I pointed out before he ran in the Whitney. Magnitude just can’t grab the Saratoga surface. He is better off at CD or Oaklawn
Sov is also by Into Mischief whose distance horses do better from well off the pace. Same for Renegade.
I’ll admit to my Magnitude bias. We always have affection for our big hits and 20 WPS on Magnitude at 43-1 was one of my better hits in my lifetime. So, he’ll always have a place in my cold, dead heart.
I wanted to make an excuse for him here because of a slight stumble at the break but it wasn’t even half as bad as Nitrogen’s. I’m drawing a line through it and moving on.
Have to wonder how much better Nitrogen’s race might have been if not for going to her knees at the jump.
Sovereignty bouncing back in such an impressive way in the historic Whitney Stakes was an absolute elating moment.
The only other rebound eliciting such an excitement and satisfaction I can remmeber was Funny Cide winning the 2004 Jockey Club Gold Cup after a a four-race losing streak…
Nitrogen would also fit into the category of the “rebounding champions”. After disappointing in the Azeri and Apple Blossom many people started to believe she had lost her former brilliance. Then she wins the Ogden Phipps by 12 lengths with a time only 1/5 off the track record signaling she would be a contender for championship honors again.
Nitrogen was very agressive again in the Whitney and despite stumbling at the start she was able to flatten the favorite Magnitude with demolishing fractional times. Her 6-furlong fractional time was faster than that of the ultra fast Knicks Go and Life is Good in winning the Whitney wire to wire.
The two only champions in the Whitney finished one two…Once a champion, always a champion… indeed!
Kudos to Mark Casse, who understands better than anyone that the fans are the heart of his sport. The dual Hall of Fame trainer is the best in North America embracing the challenge of running elite females against top-class males (albeit on the grass). Thank to Casse’s bold mindset we’ve had the privilege and the joy of watching Tepin, Got Stormy, Wonder Gadot, Catch a Glimpse, and Lexie Lou take on -and often humble- the best males of their times.
There had been some chatter about Casse’s leading filly Counting Stars running in the Travers but apparently she is not being considered to the Summer Derby anymore. It was an intriguing idea since the performance of Counting Stars in the Coaching Club American Oaks was on par with Renegade’s Jim Dandy. Perhaps the 10 furlongs won’t play in favor of the top filly…
Anyway, with champions Sovereignty and Nitrogen surging into form, and the best colts aiming at taking on the best old horses we are bracing for a fall season packed with epic showdowns.
Bloodhorse confirms White Abarrio retired… Asmussen says he will train Magnitude up to the Breeders Cup Classic ( good luck with that ). With that Lukas Classic at CD might be a good race for Baeza. Question now who will show up for the JCGC .?????
One loss and we’re writing off Magnitude?
Good luck with that.
I am not writing him off but rather he had a race in him before the Breeders Cup going a mile and a quarter not a mile and eighth… we are talking 83 days….
But then again it may not be a bad strategy the way horses are being retired now a days….. he may be the last credible horse standing !!!
.
Steve, you mentioned so many of my all-time favorites in this article!
For everyone who loved seeing Nitrogen take on the boys in the Whitney and finish ahead of some Grade I winners, we may see a Cal-bred filly taking on the boys in the Pacific Classic: Om N Joy. Here’s a blue collar filly to root for. She’s already surpassed expectations by winning the Santa Margarita and finishing second in the Clement Hirsch. She loves to make one big run from far back, and she’ll probably like 10F.
Another blue collar gal to root for is Simply Joking, who has now raced the overrated Seismic Beauty into defeat twice on the front end, and in the Clement Hirsch battled gamely on against Eunomia, only to be passed by Om N Joy close to the wire for a gallant third.
I would wager a ton of money that Forever Young will go to stud here in the States. Five years from now we will be looking at three year olds from Sovereignty and maybe Forever Young and not to forget the head start that Sierra Leone has. All in all they will have to try to measure up to Gun Runner. It should be interesting for sure.
Sovereignty sure showed up with a vengence. In fairness to Sov. he was on the shelf for many, many months before coming back.
Many horses will take time to get their mojo back & get back into racing shape. I believe Sovereignty needed those races.
Earlier you mentioned the 1978 JCGC where Exceller beat Seattle Slew by a nose, Affirmed was also in that race. Exceller rallied from almost 20 lengths beford to catch Seattle Slew while Affirmed was 3rd. I watched that race yesterday as it popped up on You Tube. Another brilliant ride by Shoemaker.
Thank you for keeping these stories alive Steve. I feel like I am watching these races live. Your story telling is 2nd to none.
You are the maestro of writing & story telling.
Naybe one day you can bless us with bio of Dark Mirage.
Thank you sir……………….
Thank you Deacon. You got it. Ive been trying to find spot for that and a good angle to use.. in that JCGC Affirmed’s saddle slipped and he had no shot.
Thanks for mentioning that about Affirmed. That saddle slip was the cause of those ridiculous early fractions he and Seattle Slew ran in that race. And remember the JCGC was run at 1 1/2 miles. One of the most memorable races I have ever seen. (On TV )
BTW.. Whenever I see the movie…. The Black Stallion The race in that movie always reminds me of that JCGC and Exceller’s great close in that race but it will always be the great fight back in the end by the Slew when that he looked hopelessly beat that I will always remember.
Good to know that there was a reason.
3 great horses in that race………..Exceller was underrated.
I was a big fan of all 3 horses.
Much respect and a shout out thank you for letting me know.
I saw Exceller in that 1978 Hollywood Gold Cup…I bet J O Tobin, who finished a well beaten 4th (shades of Harry Henson’s call on Slew, in The Swaps)….Exceller came up the rail and won, 7-1 odds, great ride by Shoe—he was by far the best looking on the post parade that day, red chestnut coat glistening….that was the year Exceller won six or seven grade ones, and got shut out in Eclipse voting….
I’ll never forget the picture in the Herald Examiner. Exceller on the rail, Text in the middle for second and Vigors like 10 wide for third. I think a 1/4 length separated all 3. Great race.
Sovereignty’s winning run was indeed a spectacular sight!
I do love White Abarrio. What a great horse to own and to follow through his long and exciting career. I surely hope breeders recognize his soundness and courage and give him a good chance as a sire.
Completely agree. I wasn’t surprised after the Whitney. I recognize the high regard, love and respect Saffie has for him, and he knew it was time. I’m so glad they opted not to continue with him, as he’s definitely ready for a change in career. LIke you, I hope for his success as a stallion.
Steve,
Nice column here and I could see why you would get goosebumps knowing and hoping your good friend , Bill Mott, would get the monkey off his back after two disappointing finishes in his two previous start. In those he was asked to run a style that was out of his realm (He is not a frontrunner) and it being his first start of the year it would be understandable he would tire at the end. His next start in the slop again he was asked to run near the front but was beaten by a horse (Magnitude) that just loves the slop better. Not a bad race but a good tightener for him. I would have rather he seen him farther back at the start in both of those race but as they say that is water over the dam .
In the Whitney I felt very good about him but if he was to win like I said in my post in your previous article he needed to run near the back of the pack at the beginning of the race which he did. In the Whitney who did he beat. Well one thing Magnitude and White Abarrio need to stay away from Saratoga. Magnitude was just spinning his wheels and just never able to grab this track. He had no excuses this time. White Abarrio (and his trainer Saffie Joseph )have not had alot of success at Saratoga in stakes races. Yes WA had previously won the Whitney but under a different trainer and two years ago. He maybe getting a little long in the tooth and he would need everything to be just right for him to win. He also did not have Irad on him. Not sure if that would have helped but he was not going to beat Sov this time. The horse that I dismissed and should have paid more attention to was the filly , Nitrogen,. When I posted about an hour before the race I had never seen any of her races. I knew she blew the doors off her competition in her previous race and in a very good time but those were fillies. Her getting Johnny V as a rider was not a downgrade but J Ortiz going with Magnitude did play a part in my handicapping of the race. She definitely like Saratoga as doe Sov. The more I see of Baeza the more I think he is a pretender and not up ranks of his competition. He is not as good as Sov or Forever Young or for that fact Journalism or Nysos who are now retired. Mott needs to realise that and find an easier spot. Everyone keeps complaining about his starts out of the gate but for the most part his best races have him coming from behind. I would look for a race for him at either Parx or Santa Anita this fall and stay away from the Breeder Cup (and Sovereignty) unless you are looking for more disappointment. Magnitude I would look at the Lukas Classic at CD in late September as his prep for the BC Classic. Nitrogen I would stick to the filly races she is a very very good race horse and should dominate in the distaff races.
No need to prove anything more than that.
As far as Deterministic he is lucky to be in the good hands of the Clements who saw his potential as a grass horse. The Sr Clement was a master at getting turf horses ready for races and looks like his son continuing with tradition. Glad he ended did not end up with a trainer that would keep running him on dirt and practice the definition of insanity and keep doing the same thing on dirt and expecting different results.
Looking forward to seeing him and Burnham Square (another horse who has done well on the turf and lucky he is with a trainer who recognized that).
Steve, as always another great article and have a great week!!!
Another beautiful column thanks Steve !! A shout out and best of luck in retirement to white Abarrio I can’t ever recall such a wild career I’ve enjoyed the ride and want to thank the horse for many great memories
Hey Nic:
Where did you here White Abarrio retired? I couldn’t find it on the usual online sites.
Paulick a toast to an amazing career and Steve’s incredible column about white abarrio after his oak lawn win I can’t recall a more wild up and down crazy ride by an important horse Florida derby win then flop after
Flop then the amazing events of 2023 and his surge to Breeders cup
Winner then 2024 flop after flop
Then his 2025 resurgence with Pegasus win and then flop
After
Flop and of course Irad jumping on his saddle and then the wildest 2026 his Pegasus 2cd and then his oak lawn win ! Over sovereignty and journalism and then sadly 2 more flops I really loved this lovable unpredictable wild
Ride can anyone remember a career like this ?
Hi Steve
Thank you for providing another thought-provoking column on two outstanding thoroughbreds. I cashed a nice $50.00 Futures exacta wager on Sovereignty/Journalism in the 2025 KD. In the 2024 KD, I had Future wagers on Deterministic, unfortunately that didn’t work out. It’s great to see him being so successful on turf, his true calling.
I realize it’s very early to start looking for 2027 Kentucky Derby prospects, but from what I’ve seen so far, Hughes, by Into Mischief, out of K P Dreamin, by Union Rags, could be Baffert’s early Derby prospect. His win in the Best Pal was quite impressive, drawing off by 7 3/4 lengths, in 1:09.61. More than likely the Del Mar Futurity is next up, and if all goes well, the BC Juvenile will follow.
If you could provide his Thoro-Graph number, that would be greatly appreciated.
Thanks, Steve.
Thanks Bill I’ve asked for it. Check out who finished 2nd at 13-1.😀
Thanks for the reply, Steve.
I’ll be looking forward to Hughes’ Thoro-Graph number. At 13-1, Phone Booth provided a nice exacta payout ($20.10). However, Hughes was much the best.
Just fyi, here are the current UK futures odds for the BC Mile:
Bow Echo (3 yo) 7-4 (love those euro odds!)
Opera Ballo 5-1
Gstaad 6-1
Notable Speech 7-1
Blue Bolt (filly) 8-1….also could be in F+M Turf
Precise (filly) 8-1…also could be in F+M Turf
Thesecretadversary 10-1
Distant Storm 12-1
Deterministic 12-1
A lot of us had goosebumps right along with you as Sovereignty sweep past the field in the Whitney. There is nothing more satisfying than watching a horse you know has the goods perform like that. This is why we love the sport so much. I felt it when White Abarrio won the Oaklawn, but Sovereignty is in a class by himself.
I also liked the way you wove in Deterministic’s story Having watched the Derby Trail unfold for decades, I can spot when a promising horse just isn’t ready, or should be on a different path completely, rather than knocking himself out in that grueling race. It’s gratifying to see that Deterministic and his connections have done so well with that pivot. The same can be said about Burnham Square (a grade 1 winner on dirt in the Blue Grass), also now excelling as a grass runner.
Oh what a wonderful read that was. Two of my absolutely favorite horses. Lucky enough to have future bets on BOTH for the Derby, and although Deterministic didn’t run, he surely has proven to be a champion. His history is so special and I am so happy for Miguel Clement and the rest of his connections. Sovereignty is just… A BEAST. The way he looked before the race… You knew he was back. The fall races are going to be epic. We have been so lucky the last two years to have the good three year olds stay in training at four. I sure hope the trend continues.
Thanks Steve. That was a great way to start the morning!
Thank you Karen
Steve:
Great column about two great horses. I agree completely re Sovereignty: I definitely got a bit emotional when he won the Whitney: The replay of his stretch run from above was something to see!!
I had the 9-1 UK invader in the Saratoga Derby: He was facing much better horses and running higher Bris race figures in the UK. In Bris race rating numbers, one point difference is significant. Glacius’s last race rating was 4 points higher than the Belmont Derby. I think Euro horses will, once again, be overlays in the BC turf races. I would love to see Deterministic win the BC Mile!!!
Thanks very much. Great handicapping on Glacius. That was a excellent pick especially at thatvprice.
Thanks, Steve!
Biggy, I watched the overhead.
It was thrilling!
Lynda:
It really was: I have watched multiple times!
In 2001, Tiznow repeared in the BCC….In my opinion it was perhaps the greatest BCC field ever…,Sahkee, Galileo, Albert the Great etc, etc…
Also, had Sahkee held on he would by to this day the only horse to win the Arc and the BCC..