Steve Haskin’s 2022 Preakness Stakes Analysis
The Preakness lost its headliner when Derby winner Rich Strike backed out, but we still get a good matchup between Derby runner-up Epicenter, who most believe ran the best race of anyone, and the exciting filly Secret Oath, who has that big turn of foot. Here is something resembling an analysis of the race and how it shapes up. ~ Steve Haskin
Steve Haskin’s 2022 Preakness Stakes Analysis
By Steve Haskin
Before we get into the Preakness, a few things you should know about the Derby. Rich Strike went into the race off a pedestrian “9 3/4” Thoro-Graph number, with his fastest career number being a “9.” That slow a number spells automatic throwout. By comparison, Taiba went in off a “negative-1/2” and White Abarrio a “1.” But lo and behold on the biggest day of his life he somehow rocketed to a “1 1/2 ” Considering his trainer said after the race the plan was to go to the Peter Pan and the Belmont if he didn’t get in the Derby and his owner said five days later the plan was to go to the Preakness if he didn’t get in the Derby, could it be they saw a massive “bounce” coming and decided that the Preakness would send them crashing back to earth from their high perch on cloud nine? This way they get to live the dream for another five weeks. Otherwise, why the contradiction and why announce the defection five days after the race? Food for thought.
Now looking at how big a race Epicenter ran in the Derby and why he will be a solid favorite in the Preakness, horses within eight lengths of the brutal :45 1/5 half were beaten 10 lengths, 15 3/4 lengths, 17 3/4, 18 3/4, 19 1/4, 20, 28, 42 3/4, 57, and 64 1/2 lengths. Epicenter and Zandon, who were 5 1/4 and 7 1/2 lengths back, respectively, were beaten three-quarters of a length and 1 1/2 lengths, respectively. Zandon, as reported, will not run in the Preakness and Belmont Stakes. Considering Epicenter ran basically the same Thoro-Graph number in the Kentucky Derby as he did in the Louisiana Derby and Risen Star Stakes and was coming off a six-week layoff going into the Kentucky Derby there is no reason to believe he will regress coming back in two weeks. With his versatility and tactical speed he should get a great position sitting right off likely pacesetter Early Voting, who will be a fresh horse coming off his big effort in the Wood Memorial.
Even though you have a classy confirmed frontrunner in Early Voting the pace scenario is still very much in the air. We know that another Baffert/Yakteen invader Armagnac has good early speed but has yet to demonstrate his class and we don’t know how huge longshot Fenwick is going to do but he’s only shown speed once and that was a moderate pace in a Tampa allowance race. But the key horse could be Simplication, a horse of many faces, who will be breaking from the rail under new rider, the crafty John Velazquez. We know Simplification has the early speed to go for the lead from the inside post. But we also know he is effective coming from midpack or even far back, as he was in the Derby, coming from 15th to finish fourth. So that adds to the confusion.
Epicenter as we know has early speed but now has become a stalker who rated beautifully in the Derby some five lengths off that brutal pace. Breaking from post 8 he has all the speed inside him, which is just what you want. But he still has to break well and make sure he doesn’t get caught too wide on the first turn.
So the bottom line is it is difficult to predict who will be where going into the turn. We do know that Secret Oath and the vastly improving Creative Minister will be the main threats coming from farther back and will be dependent on a fast or at least contentious pace.
Thoro-Graph numbers or any other speed figures sure didn’t do any good in the Derby and I’m not sure they will do any good in the Preakness. One to watch, however, is Creative Minister who has gone from a “9” to a “6 1/2” to a “2,” which was actually faster than Epicenter’s “2 1/4” in the Derby and Simplification’s “2 1/2.” His Beyer figures also have made significant improvement with each race, so this is a horse who definitely is on the rise and who has shown a powerful closing kick in all his races.
Imagine if Kenny McPeek, who had three strong Derby candidates early in the year, wins the Preakness with a different horse that no one heard of until his recent allowance victory.
If you want to know about Secret Oath, she ran a “2” in the Kentucky Oaks, which puts her right there with the leading Preakness horses. But she actually has run faster this year, so her best can certainly win this race.
Remember, as strong as Epicenter looks his Thoro-Graph numbers have not improved since the Risen Star Stakes, nor has Simplification’s in his his last five starts. But it doesn’t look as if it’s going to take a fast number to win the Preakness.
There doesn’t seem to be many betting possibilities in this nine-horse field. Epicenter will be the clear-cut favorite and if he can avoid getting hung wide on the first turn he has the perfect running style to win this race, but obviously can only be played in the exotics and even then you’re not likely to make much money, especially if you play him over Secret Oath and Early Voting.
You can play all three over Creative Minister and Simplification to try for a decent return on your money and play Creative Minister and Simplification to win. You can add Skippylongstocking underneath as well if you believe the Wood Memorial was legit. Again, don’t be too surprised if Creative Minister gets bet down. Simplification could turn out to be the best overlay possibility.
Nothing clever here. The focus is on Epicenter vs. Secret Oath, so let’s hope both get good trips and run their “A” race.
A victory by Epicenter would set up an interesting rematch between him and Rich Strike in the Belmont Stakes along with the exciting fresh face We the People, a runaway winner of the Peter Pan Stakes. But let’s get through this one first.
Thanks for sharing this.
Disappointed with Rosario ride on Epicenter. Early Voting (horrible name as was Cloud Computing -Klarman needs a lesson in selecting horse names) did not surprise but I am not convinced that he is a better horse. Secret Oath looked fit but light as if she had lost some weight since the Oaks (took pictures of her and her ribs are too visible). Wish horse weights were published. Creative Minister should be a serious Belmont contender, especially with his pedigree. Not optimistic that Rich Strike will do well at Belmont.
I have been an admirer of yours for many years. Wish you the best
I read a comment on another site that said if Rich Strike wins The Belmont, he locks up the Eclipse award. Maybe. But, if Early Voting wins The Travers and The Breeders Cup Classic, wouldn’t he have to at least be in the conversation? I think that there is a pretty good chance that we will see 3 different winners in the 3 Triple Crown races. No disrespect to Rich Strike. Part of me will be pulling for him in The Belmont even though it’s unlikely that I will bet on him. Unless Summer Is Tomorrow and Crown Pride are last minute entries to the race.
As a triple crown lover the Preakness was a dud I’m no fan of horses skipping the derby to be fresher for Preakness Steve I love your columns and amazing love for the triple crown thanks for all u do ! Ps I hate the name early voting and for that matter cloud computing to be so rich and to ruin fun tradition of the Preakness by skipping the derby just to win plus to name your horses those Names yuck !
Thanks Nick. The Klaravich horses with few exceptions are the worst named horses.
In my professional opinion, Bally Ache is the worst name of a Preakness winner. But all in all, Preakness winners’ names are better than Derby winners’ names. A few years back we had a string of Derby names only a mother could love: Mine That Bird, Super Saver, I’ll Have Another, Orb.
Orb’s sire was Mailbu Moon. The definition of “orb” is a celestial object like the sun or the moon.
Mind That Bird’s sire was Birdstone and his dam was Mining My Own.
Super Saver’s dam was named Super Charger.
I’ll Have Another was named supposedly by his owner. His wife asked him if he wanted another cookie and his response was “I’ll Have Another”. Mr Reddam thought that would be a good name for the colt.
There are guidelines for the naming and registration of Thoroughbred horses as there are for most other horse breeds.
The Jockey Club is responsible (since 1894) for maintaining the American Stud Book (or registry for Thoroughbreds). The Jockey Club also decides which names are allowed.
There are rules.
For example the number of characters cannot exceed 18.
When the registration form is submitted, as I recall, 4 names must be submitted.
Names in the database can be recycled (over 400,000 in the registry) unless the horse is a champion and in the case the name is retired. Example: Secretariat.
Some names are either rejected or allowed because the definition or meaning of the name has changed or the name is already in use or are of a political nature or the horse is named after a living person.
The most common naming pattern is combining the names of the sire and dam (as noted above, Mine That Bird as an example).
Names also often reflect something about the owner. Example: Jerry Moss is a record producer and named Giacomo after the son of Sting. Zenyatta was named after the Police album “Zenyatta Mondatta”.
Sometimes the names are rejected. If I recall correctly Mrs. Hamm submitted 10 different names before the 11th one, Secretariat was accepted.
In this year’s Derby, the colt Cyberknife was named for the instrument used on owner’s Al Gold’s prostate cancer and to bring awareness to prostate cancer.
As to some of the names for many of the horses owned by Klavarich Stables. one of the owners made his fortune in hedge fund market hence the names like Consumer Spending and Sound Money.
The late Rick Porter named several of his colts after WW ll battles (Omaha Beach and Normandy Invasion). Steve wrote and article about how Mr, Porter’s filly Songbird was named.
Sometimes a name can result in a controversy. Example is Enola Gay that I think was named in honor of one of the men that were on the plane named Enola Gay that dropped the nuclear bombs on Japan. Some group(s) took offense and petitioned to force the Jockey Club retract approval of the name. The plane, Enola Gay, was named after the mother of the pilot of the plane.
In some cultures (Native American and Arabic) it is forbidden or considered bad luck to give a horse a “human name”. On a side note, I read that the owner of Godolphin personally approves the names of all his horses.
Maybe it’s a chick thing, but I enjoy looking up or researching the names of the Thoroughbreds because often times the name has meaning beyond just being a combination of the sire and dam.
I do, however, question the names of some horses. For example, this year, Messier. First time I heard his name, I laughed and thought who in the world would name their race horse Messier? Then I learned he was named after a sport star.
My horses all have a name for a reason. The one mare was born on Good Friday and is a grey and part of her sire’s name is Divine, thus she was named Divine Easter Lily. Another mare’s name means special gift in Persian. My Appaloosa mare was named Crackling Rosie after the Neil Diamond song. She was born a red bay with a blanket with big spots (rose being red) and I thought the lyrics of the song fit her personality.
I must confess that I do not particularly care for some the names given to the Thoroughbreds. Example, Gronkowski and some are just comical to me like Soup and Sandwich.
The worst is naming horses after people, should be forbidden.
Nick, RS is a one run horse. Wise skipping Preakness. Would do same.
Hey Steve! Any hints on your next words of wisdom?
If youre referring to the Preakness I have no words of wisdom, just a tidbits type of column probably on Wednesday. There wasnt much to inspire me.
New York horse and Wood runner wins Preakness in good time, it’s inspiring.
How about a story on a Preakness that DID inspire you, Steve — maybe that one from 1973? That one is burned into my brain, and I think I only saw it once. Secretariat was SO FAST.
I already did a column on my experiences at the 73 Preakness… my first Preakness.
D’oh! I believe I’ve already mentioned my short term memory is going. But then I forgot. Thanks, Steve.
Steve, my sentiments too about the Preakness … nothing inspiring !!! To me what is the biggest story is the … MISSED Opportunity for the Messier connections. That race would have been perfect for him. I am sure if Baffert had still been training him he would have been in it… Again from everything I have read, he came out of the Derby in good shape. Armagnac should have been in the Sir Barton Stakes. July 2nd won’t come fast enough for these connections !!! Maybe the June 11 Affirmed Stake at Santa Anita for Messier and Taiba the Ohio Derby on June 27th.
Looking forward to your next column Steve !!!
The undefeated Flightline is listed as a “probable” for The Met Mile on Belmont Day, June 11th. It has a purse of $1million. It will be Flightline’s first race outside of California. When last seen, Flightline looked unbeatable. But, that was 5 months ago when he won Santa Anita’s opening day Malibu on 12-26-21. Flightline is a 4-year old now with only 3 lifetime starts. All 3 of those starts resulting in stunning victories. After his first start on 4-24-21, he needed over 4 months to recover until we saw him again on 9-5-21. Then he needed another 3 1/2 months before that Malibu win. He’s been working up a storm out in California. Flightline could be HorseRacing’s biggest star if he could just string some starts together. I hope he shows up on Belmont Day. Trainer John Sadler obviously has a challenge with Flightline.
There are going to be 9 Stakes races on that Belmont Day card. The smallest purse for those 9 races is $400,000. The Belmont at $1.5 million and The Met Mile at $1million highlight the card.
Every start is fresh, this year the Met Mile may have Flightline, Speaker’s Corner and perhaps Life Is Good……I’m a big Speaker’s Corner guy, Flightline is spectacular, so there’s the race—Ive seen some great horses in person, if you get the chance go see Flightline! Probably only three more starts, but Flightline is amazing, he makes good horses look ordinary, truly amazing!
He’s a force!
We The People looks like he will be a major player in the Belmont if he starts!!
Like him.
I guess The Travers will be huge, this year!
It’s better than the Kentucky Derby! Always!! I can PROVE it.
For the true horseplayer, I wouldn’t disagree. But you could be at the track or your favorite OTB facility on the 1st Saturday in May and ask the majority of people what’s the Travers and they wouldn’t have a clue. The Derby has been established as an American iconic brand and it’ll never squander away from that.
It’s my favorite 3yo race.
Kudos to Gun Runner, who has been one of the best first-crop sires of modern times. Early Voting is his fifth G1 winner, after Gunite, Echo Zulu, Cyberknife, and Taiba.
Steve Haskin was prophetic when he wrote of Epicenter “he still has to break well”. Well, he didn’t break well. I didn’t think that he looked as sharp before the race as he did before The Derby or in Louisianna. He’s a really good horse and he’ll win his share of races. But, the late developing horses are catching up to him now. Which leaves him little room for error. Like a slow break from the gate. Epicenter ran his eyeballs out in The Derby. It was a tough race that would have drained any horse. Coming back in 2 weeks was going to be tough after such a big effort. I raised my eyebrows when I saw Steve Asmussen work him out last weekend. I didn’t expect a :46 or :47, but, something a little zippier than the :50+ that he did run for 4-furlongs would have shown that he was still on edge.
Those crazy odd changes saved me a bunch of money! Thanks people.
$5.70-1 on the fresh colt!
It sounds like Rich Strike may be facing an entirely new cast of characters for The Belmont in 3 weeks. Rich Strike, We the People, and Creative Minister all look like they will be going to New York. I would have thought that Ethereal Road would be heading to Belmont after his big win yesterday running against the track bias. But, D Wayne Lukas is non-committal so far.
Seth Klarman, owner of Klaravich Stables, said almost immediately after the race that Early Voting wouldn’t be going to The Belmont. That he preferred to let his rapidly improving colt improve some more and be pointed to The Travers. But, he also said that Chad Brown would make the final decision. Early Voting has been improving by leaps and bounds. If he keeps improving, he’ll be pretty scary by August and maybe for The Breeders Cup.
That’s a big stretch from 1 1/16 to 1 1/2. See what happens
Mo Donegal and Barber Road are probable.
Probable/possible for Belmont Stakes so far (none confirmed):
Western River R. Brisset
Golden Glider M. Casse Probable
Skippylongstocking S. Joseph, Jr. Jr.
Barber Road J. Ortiz
Creative Minister K. McPeek
Nest T. Pletcher
Ethereal Road D. Lukas
We the People R. Brisset
The two that I find most interesting are Nest and We The People
Rich Strike E. Reed
Mo Donegal T. Pletcher
Nest is intriguing, fillies are equal to colts in stamina! ..
The similarities between Cloud Computing (four syllables) and Early Voting (four syllables) are eerily striking. Same trainer, same owner, and of course same pattern coming into the Preakness. That’s why I picked against him — but all are good reasons to pick for him given his class. Deep down, I was for Epicenter and Simplification because I wanted to see one or both horses redeem themselves.
This is why I rarely bet — emotions I don’t even know I’m feeling tend to get in the way.
Well said. I have the same problem. After seeing Secret Oath exit the paddock prior to the race, I thought she looked light and was tempted to change my bet. Epicenter to me , looked really good as did Early Voting (both with good flesh and tolerating the heat well).
A blogger at HRN said that Early Voting earned a 105 BSF for his Preakness win. I don’t know if that’s true. I don’t really trust things that I read over there.
You can believe it because it was also reported in the DRF, home of the Beyer speed figure.
Since I wagered $1000 on him,was no concern. Like I said earlier, numbers are minimal or me.
For me.
Great job!
Mc, hope u won also.
Epicenter showed speed in all his races but not yesterday….Rosario was able to get the rail even got thru down the lane I thought he put up a terrific ride, considering he didn’t have his early foot….Early Voting is a good horse….both Epi and Early are not Belmont bound, as I understand .
BTW, Belinda Stronach was interviewed on NBC in between The Chainsmokers and Marshmellow Head. She said that The Preakness would remain at Pimlico and that a re-development project is already under way and should be completed by 2026. I should live so long. Some of us were talking about The Preakness moving to Laurel. It doesn’t sound like it will happen.
BTW#2, Nick Luck seemed really out of his element on stage with Marshmello Head.
I don’t trust the Stronach group at all. Same old gonna stay here talk has been going on for at least 10 years now.
Re your BTW#2, I don’t have cable, but I wish I could’ve seen that!
Good Sunday Morning everyone!
Congratulations to Early Voting.
Way down in this post I stated that I thought the race was going to come down to these four: Epicenter, Simplification, Secret Oath and Early Voting. The one I was totally wrong about was Simplification (I did read on BH this morning that he bled, (possibly, in my opinion, a result of the heat).
After the Derby, many said that Rosario had Epicenter too far forward. Now, after the Preakness many are saying that Rosario had him too far back. After watching the replay of the race twice I saw there was crowding and bumping at the start. Skippylongstocking came over hard on Epicenter, hitting him on the shoulder. Epicenter turned his head as if he was going to react by biting Skippylongstocking and Rosario pulled his head back to the left. Secret Oath was also crowded and almost clicked heels (I think with Happy Jack) thus losing her momentum. She was dead last and did manage to step up to get fourth. Epicenter finally got to run and salvaged a second place finish. It is for each person to decide if either ended up compromised from the start as an explanation as to why neither won or if indeed they both got a bad ride. Overall it was a rather lackluster race in my opinion with good news being that as far as we know all came home safely. Chad Brown did make a good decision to skip the Derby and on Saturday, that decision paid off.
TommyMc, I was not able to watch the President’s Cup until late last night when the race replay dropped. I was not surprised one bit by Hiab Al Zaman winning and winning so handily or Quick Sand AA closing fast to take second. I know that many do not care for Arabian horse racing because they are “slow” but I hope some of you do come to appreciate the sheer beauty of these Arabian horses and how seem to literally float across the track with their heads up, ears pricked and their flag tails streaming behind. They are indeed, “The Drinkers of the Wind”. The other plus for Arabian racing is that many of the trainers are women and most of the horses are homebreds. Arabian racing has not yet been tarnished by wealthy owners, expensive stallions and million dollar plus babies in the auctions. It is horse racing in its purist form.
One more comment. I find all this chatter about making changes to the Triple Crown races to be ridiculous. And I certainly think that “requiring” the Derby winner to run in the Preakness to be beyond the pale. Sour grapes is not a valid reason to change the order, distance, and time spacing between the races.
I very much enjoyed The President’s Cup. In fact, I used both of the top 2 finishers which enabled me to hit the last pick-3 of the day.
Congratulations on your pick 3 win, Tommy Mc!
Thanks.
Congrats on your winning bet!
See, you can “handicap” an Arabian race, LOL.
Thanks. I just used the information that you provided.
If they were to change the Triple Crown schedule, it would be an entirely different thing and any future Triple Crown Winners would need to have an asterisk IMO.
Funny how there are no asterisks after the names of the first seven Triple Crown winners, from Sir Barton to Citation. Schedules were different for all those Triple Crowns.
Thanks for the news item on Simplification, Lynda. It’s good to know that the reason for my betting loss wasn’t only because of my stupidity. 😉 As for the conversation about changing the TC, I’m pretty sure that most of it was tongue-in-cheek. At least that’s how I saw it, considering that I was the one who started the thread. LOL. And I don’t see why you would consider sour grapes to be the reason for suggesting a change. Nothing stays the same, even the pies at my favorite pizza joint.
EddieF, please know that my “sour grapes” comment was not directed at you or anyone else on here. And in fact I did not call out anyone or any blog site in particular. “One more comment. I find all this chatter about making changes to the Triple Crown races to be ridiculous. And I certainly think that “requiring” the Derby winner to run in the Preakness to be beyond the pale. Sour grapes is not a valid reason to change the order, distance, and time spacing between the races.”
Steve’s blog is not the only one I read by any means though it is the one I most frequently comment on.
Hi, Lynda. I was thrown off by the word “this” in “all this chatter.” No harm done. 🙂
Remember Samuel Riddle did not run MAN O War in the Derby because he thought 1 1/4 miles at that time of year was asking too much of a 3 yr old colt. Man O War ran in and won the Preakness and the Belmont. If Preakness prevented non Derby runners from racing we would have been denied to see the magnificence of Man O War.
I saw Secret Oath get crowded at the start and she never really got any racing room after that. Way it goes. She still has that kick though but couldn’t sustain it. All in all 4th not bad for having to go so wide on the turn.
I did watch the Presidents Cup and enjoyed it. We wouldn’t have the Thoroughbred and many others if not for the influence of these horses.
I also agree leave the Triple Crown alone.
Laura L, Secret Oath indeed should receive praise and congratulations for her 4th place finish. She has determination, speed and talent and I am quire sure she will be highly competitive the rest of the year.
Hopefully she recovered ok and on to the Coaching Club. I expect her to do quite well the rest of the summer racing against the fillies. Really too early to talk Breeder Cup races but intrigued Sodashi punched her ticket to get in.
Have not heard how Secret Oath came out of the face other than Pimlico did issue a press release that all of the horses came out of the Preakness well. Someone who attended the race said that she looked tired in the post parade. I did not get that impression but I was watching on TV. She certainly throws her heart down in every race and does not give up. Luis Saez said in an interview after the race that she broke well but the other horses were all over the place and it was hard to get he into a good position. She did make her move at the half mile when asked but it was just not enough to catch the leader. The stretch at Pimlico is short (as I have read) and if it were longer, in my opinion, she would have been able to crack the top 3. Saez did not mention the interference from Happy Jack.
Absolutely love Sodashi!
Very strange betting in The Preakness. Fenwick 50-1 Morning Line/went off at 13-1. Happy Jack 30-1 ML/went off at 11-1. Skippylongstockings 20-1 ML/went off at 12-1. All of that caused “overlays” on Early Voting, Secret Oath, and Simplification. Epicenter & Creative Minister went off at exactly their ML odds of 6-5 & 10-1. But, I even look at Epicenter as an Overlay. Didn’t most of us expect him to be odds-on? I figured him for 3-5 or 4-5.
What caused this? Was it some sort of “computerized batch betting”? Was it people hearing all the hype about the 80-1 winner of The Derby? Very strange that the 3 longest ML priced horses took so much money. It’s hard to believe that it was just casual fans that caused this situation. It was a lot of money. WAIT A MINUTE! What was Mattress Mac up to yesterday? Like Arnold Rothstein back in 1918, Mac is the only guy with the cash to pull this off.
I forgot about Armagnac 12-1 ML/off at 18-1.
But, seriously. The Preakness was actually very formful. Is formful even a word? IDK. The last 3 horses were Fenwick, Happy Jack, and Armagnac. The first 2 horses were the first 2 favorites on the ML. Fenwick, on paper, looked every bit of 50-1. But, he went off at 13-1. Weird.
Yes, Tommy. “Formful” is a word. It’s an adjective meaning full of form, like my growing midsection.
Picked winner on here earlier.
Good one, Mike. I’ll bet you were overjoyed by his odds. I didn’t like him in this one, so his win isn’t surprising. 😉
Had grand on Derb w/ Zandon. Grand wager again on EV. Hope worked for u also Eddie.
I haven’t cashed a TC ticket since Rombauer. Hoping for divine intervention in 3 weeks.
I’ve learned my lesson. I’m all over We the People in the Belmont.
I hope he ensures domestic tranquility.
We need it.
Eddie, liked EV cause he was fresh.
Yes Mike, the time off obviously helped him. But the vast majority of Preakness winners racex with a much shorter break.
4 sure!
I had the winner as well since 5-1 was an overlay however epicenter got an awful ride by Rosario. Don’t know what he was thinking but I’m glad he did what he did for my collection.
First, as always, congrats to Early Voting and this horse’s connections.
But I’m starting to see eerily similarities with the Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC owners/Asmussen trained Midnight Bourbon and now Epicenter…..just can’t get that special Triple Crown race win outside Louisiana.
Let’s hoping for long career for Epicenter, whether racing or breeding, that denied Midnight Bourbon.
MIDNIGHT BOURBON
Lecomte 1st
Risen Star 3rd
La Derby 2nd
Ky Derby 6th
Preakness 2nd
EPICENTER
Lecomte 2nd
Risen Star 1st
La Derby 1st
Ky Derby 2nd
Preakness 2nd
Advantage — Epicenter. I’m certain Epicenter will perform better than MB did post-Preakness.
I was thinking the exact same thing.
Early Voting vindicated the Wood, looked strong going around the final turn, had good energy. He may turn into a top horse, has had strong races. As much as I would like to see Not This Time hit it big as a sire, Epicenter may have been over rated.
Second by 3/4 length in the Kentucky Derby and second by 1 1/4 in the Preakness. That’s pretty damn good. Do you think he wasn’t a reasonable favorite in those races?
I think Early Voting is faster and maybe stronger. I believe people thought EV was a cheaper speed type, I know I did. Bet him anyway at good odds. What I like is he came through and didn’t disappoint and has in all his races. Now he could emerge as a top horse, they’re pointed to the Travers, which should be a good one this year, hopefully. His pedigree of Gun Runner and Tiznow certainly supports that. Maybe Epicenter deserves another chance, may just have been unlucky so far.
Epicenter is the better horse IMO. He will show that moving forward.
Disco, I agree.
Congrats to Early Voting and what nice birthday present for the owner!
I don’t understand the Happy Jack love, but I didn’t understand it in Louisville…..They ran Early Voting in the Wood and he ran lights out so they skipped the Derby? Doesn’t add up…..this is a jockeys race, and I hope Joel puts Epi into the bit and challenges Early, and help a closer or two….(Skippy for me, wait–off of a hit tempo, then ease out and go get them!
Hot, wait on a hot tempo, horse has changed his running style and the Beyers went up—race flow may benefit Skippy!….
It MUST BE Casino money! People are putting a ton of money on wildly off-kilter propositions, ie they’re betting big on horses either zero chance!
I don’t understand the current odds at all. Is something crazy gonna happen?
Longshot bias gone wild!
Fenwick and Happy Jack are taking money in the Win pool, but, not in the Multi-race wagers. Skippylongstocking IS taking a little money in the Multi-race wagers.
Hard to believe the Black Eyed Susan is just a $250,000 race – chump change by today’s standards.
I see MSW races at CD for $120,000.
For that reason alone, it was worth taking a shot with Secret Oath…
I know that it’s very early and that they’ve only run 3 races so far, but, speed is holding very well so far at Pimlico. On both surfaces. We just had a wire-to-wire winner on the turf. Things can change drastically over the course of a 14-race day.
Umberto Rispoli’s move to Kentucky didn’t last very long. After going 0 for 19 at Keenland and 0 for 21 at Churchill Downs, he has announced that he will be returning to California on Sunday after riding today at Churchill. He says that he just wasn’t getting the opportunities that he had hoped for. Can’t blame him. He’s a good rider. Especially, on turf. It’s always hard to crack into a new jockey colony where local riders have built up relationships for years. Unless you are a Joel Rosario or Flavian Prat. Both top-5 jockeys in the entire country.
Pat Day and Jerry Bailey couldn’t crack the west coast colony of the early 80’s, I remember Jerry Bailey had long hair!..
Let’s see if Irad tries to float out Epicenter today, with Armagnac….to help out his brother, on EarlyVoting…
I really like Early Votings chances to upset in the Preakness. He is fresh and should be ready to roll. Going with a $6 SF 5,8/5,8/1,4,9/1,4,9.
Nice pick, JoeP. Hope you had a win bet and exacta.
Hi Eddie – unfortunately I only went with the SF bet on the Preakness. I will definitely have exacta bets and Tri Bets in the Belmont. Nice to see Chad get the win with Early Voting, Zandon ran well in the Derby but came up a little short.
Historical Preakness facts:
* In the past 16 second jewels, horses that didn’t run in the Ky Derby have won five times (including the past 2 years — though one was in the rescheduled TC of 2020). Between Deputed Testamony in 1983 and Bernardini in 2006, only Red Bullet in 2000 was able to turn the trick.
* In 1888, the Preakness winner was Refund. There was no disqualification.
* No horse has ever won the Ky Derby and the Belmont Stakes when skipping the middle jewel.
* A horse named Shirley won the Preakness in 1876. Shirley was not a filly.
After all the scratches at Pimlico today, there is only one race of the 14 with as many as 10 starters. I know that Pimlico has a limited amount of racing days, but, isn’t it still the biggest day of the year for Maryland racing? Sad. Thankfully, the “get out” race, that 14th race Arabian contest remains intact except for a single jockey change. Maybe the expected heat took a toll on the entries.
One surprise is that the Rudy Rodriguez horse in the 9th race, Doctor Jeff, wasn’t scratched. At least not yet. He’s been a “Vet scratch” twice lately that I know of. Once at Woodbine. He hasn’t had an official workout since May 3rd. He was cut out to be a good one, but, I don’t know what to make of him right now. I hope he gets around there safe.
I got lucky with Tawny Port winning as an overlay in the Lexington. Can luck strike twice with Simplification winning as an overlay in the Preakness? 8-1 would be nice.
225 Total Bet
100 Win/Place – Simplification
20 Exacta – Early Voting > Simplification
5 Trifecta – Early Voting > Epicenter > Simplification
Saturday’s 14th and final race at Pimlico is the G1 UAE President Cup for Arabians. It’s a puzzler. The #5 horse- Sniper De Monlau is a 10-year old Arabian that was Bred in France and mostly raced in the Middle East. Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Qatar. He has the biggest bankroll in the field, having earned over a half of a million bucks in his 16 starts. He’s 1 for 4 on dirt(Saturday’s surface) and 3 for 12 on turf. But, here’s the best part. Sniper De Monlau will be making his first start since March of 2018. Yep, that’s over 4 years ago. Trainer Nicole Ruggeri must like what she sees to make his long-awaited comeback in a G1 Stakes race. Maybe it was that 1:10.1 workout at Lonestar over 5-Furlongs on the heels of a :44 flat at Retama over 3-Furlongs in early April.
Like I said earlier in the week, the best way to handicap an Arabian race is to pick a number out of a hat. No offense. They are beautiful animals. It just takes them a little longer to get there.
Well you can always watch the quarter horses! 🙂
The first time that I ever went to any kind of horse race was Quarterhorse racing at Los Alamitos in California. It was so much fun that I started going once a week. I eventually moved to Harness racing at Hollywood Park. That was fun for a while. But, after the first time that I attended the Thoroughbreds at Santa Anita, I was hooked. Nothing can top it. So fun and interesting. I’m in Florida now and I don’t think that they have Quarterhorse racing anywhere in the State. I could be wrong. They have Dog-racing though. Which isn’t my cup of tea.
#3 Quick Sand Aa A (5/2) 9yo Gray Horse…38 starts out of the money 3 times, 2022 debut was impeded, moved up to 2nd could have won is still real good Arabian Horse!
I think Quick Sand Aa A is the horse to beat. Believe it or not, he was the horse that I “singled” in last year’s edition of this race. He made a big move and looked like a certain winner before almost coming to a complete stop. He went to the sidelines after that race for 5 months, but appears to have come back as good as ever.
I used #1 and #3 Quick Sand …this is a distance he may not want, as much—ironic he was “eased” yet he finished 3rd! And Arabians are supposed to be able to run all day!..
I wonder if he bled, he really did stop running…
TommyMc, let me see if I can be of assistance in your dilemma.
Like Moulin Rouge – won 2022 GR3 Texas Six Shooter – can be found in Equibase, 7 year old gelding. LMR’s sire was Zachzell by Brusally Orlsalin. Brusally Orlsalin is the grandsire to one of my Arabian mares. Brusally Orlsalin goes back through 5 generations to Kohelian I who was famed for siring exceptionally good racers
Proud American – won final race at Sam Houston in 2022
Quick Sand AA – won UAE President’s Cup in 2018 (9 years old), nominated for Darley Older Horse Awards *
Highh Maintenance – 11 top two finishes 15 races in Texas, 7 years old
Sniper De Monlau – Making his American debut in The President’s Cup
Hiab Al Zaman – 2021 Darley Horse of The Year – you can find info on Skysports
Uptown Lady Arabella – filly, 2020 Darley Champion Filly – can be found in horseracingDOTnet*
Kissouur- missed 3021, won last race out – 6 years old – he is in Equibase
*Uptown Lady Arabella and Quick Sand AA are by same sire, Burning Sand
The President’s Cup is I think one leg of the Darley Triple Crown.
Arabian horse racing is more poplar in the United States than you might think. For several years now a UAE sanctioned Arabian race has been on the undercard at the Kentucky Derby and the Breeder’s Cup.
Explanation for Sniper De Monlau being absent from track for six years is that he took time off to perform stallion duties.
Breeding does not take the toll on Arabian stallions like it does Thoroughbreds because AI is allowed.
Also, TommyMc, you need to know that it is not unusual for an Arabian to still be racing up to 9 or 10 years of age.
Arabs are mentally mature at age 5-6 and for most they peak at age 5 in their performance as compared to Thoroughbreds that peak around 3.5 to 4.0.
I was wondering if he had gone off to do some Breeding. I admire your knowledge of the sport. I remember back in the day out in California, there was a very popular horse named Sillveyville that raced in both Northern and Southern California. He retired to Stud-duty and later came back to run in a couple of races. It was a long time ago, but, I don’t seem to remember him doing much in his return.
Thank you TommyMc.
Been horse crazy since the day I was born.
Saturday’s 14th and final race at Pimlico is a real puzzler. Even for an Arabian race. The #5 horse- Sniper De Monlau is a 10-year old Arabian that was bred in France and raced mostly Group I races in the Middle East. Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Qatar. He also has the biggest bankroll in the field, having earned over a half of a million bucks in his 16 starts. But, here’s the best part. He’ll be making his first start since March of 2018. Yep, that’s over 4 years ago. Yikes! Somehow, trainer Nicole Ruggeri picks this $100,000 G1 Stakes race for his comeback. She must like what she sees. Maybe it was that 1:10.1 workout at Lonestar over 5 Furlongs on the heels of a :44 flat over 3 Furlongs at Retama.
Like I said earlier in the week, the best way to handicap an Arabian race is to pull a number out of a hat. No offense. They are beautiful animals. It just takes them a little longer to get there.
I’m starting to think that a mile or a mile and a sixteenth is the best distance for Adare Manor. She never got to the rail today and was slightly wide, but, like in The Santa Anita Oaks which was also a mile and an eighth, she lacked the needed “punch” in the stretch. Turn the page and move on to Preakness Day.
Yes please the Preakness. Bloodhorse just posted a piece about the Justify curse. Give me a break!
Pretty good time 1:48 3/5….
The Black-Eyed Susan looks to be a wide-open race. Lots of recent winners and only one true stand-out, Adare Manor, although Beguine intrigues. My pick is one of the longest shots in the race, Miss Yearwood.
The thing about Early Voting is….WHO runs a bang-up 2nd, in a Derby prep then takes out of the Kentucky Derby??!!
The following are the last split times of key Preakness runners according to Trakus
April 9, 2022 Wood Memorial (track Very Fast )
Early Voting :..23.80..47.61..1:11.53..1:35.60..1:47.95 (1 1/8 Miles)
CD May 7, 2022 Kentucky Derby (track Fast )
Epicenter:…..…..…22.28..46.20.. 1:10.88..1:37.08..2:02.72 (1 1/4 Miles)
Simplification:……22.84..46.85.. 1:11.55..1:38.13..2:03.18 (1 1/4 Miles)
CD May 7, 2022 Allowance (track Fast )
Creative Minister:.23.97..47.64..1:11.82..1:36.15..1:42.30 (1 1/16 Miles)
CD May 6, 2022 (Kentucky Oaks) (Track wet fast)
Secret Oath:………23.72..47.27..1:11.63..1:36.48..1:49.44 (1 1/8 Miles)
Comparatively Epicenter and Simplification ran blazing half mile for the 10 furlongs … more relaxing pace early would benefit them greatly in the Preakness.
They just showed a replay of the 2005 Preakness on TVG. That was the year that Afleet Alex was almost knocked to the ground by Scrappy T at the top of the stretch. “Alex” was such an athletic horse to not only keep his feet, but to come back and win that race. Pretty easily too.
That was an incredible performance. Alex’s Preakness is probably my favorite of all time.
Afleet Alex was a tough horse….loved training so much, that they did 2 a days with him
Thanks, Steve, for your Preakness review. I appreciate the Thoro-Graph information. It is a privileged handicapping tool we can access thanks to your kindness.
It is good to see the TG figures corroborating what other speed figures suggest in regard to Secret Oath. They hint that the big filly is fast enough to be a dangerous rival against three of the best colts of 2022.
Rich Strike skipping the Preakness is an unpopular decision but apparently a wise one by his team. Good luck to them in proving that their Derby win was not a fluke.
Since 1932, when the Preakness started to be run permanently after the Derby, only nine (9) Derby winners did not enter the second jewel of the TC series. I am excluding Country House and Mandaloun who won by DQ but were anyway ill and rested respectively after the Derby.
Three of those Derby victors got injured after the running for the Roses (Hil Gail, Swaps and Grindstone), one was not eligible for the Preakness (Lawrin), one opted for a $2-million bonus at Garden State Park (Spend A Buck), two were sent to rest by trainers who did not like close races (Determine and Tomy Lee) and two bypassed the Preakness to be more ready for the Belmont Stakes (Count Turf and Gato del Sol).
It is also interesting to see that in those years of no Derby winners in the Preakness only two horses who had not run in the Derby have won the Preakness. The last one in this category was Alomas Ruler in 1982!
I am not sure if this info is cause for optimism about Epicenter and Simplification but one might assume that a top 3-year-old is not only trained to excel in the Derby but also to perform in the other legs of the Triple Crown.
With a TC champion out of the question I now focus on the race for the 3-year-old championship.
Epicenter is looking to validate his leading stance among his peers by attempting to win the Preakness.
It is easy to foresee Early Voting trying to win wire to wire and striving to fence off the final rush of Epicenter, Simplification and Secret Oath.
Simplification ran big in the Derby overcoming a troubling and wide trip. He was able to close 3 lengths against Epicenter in the homestretch despite the Florida horse running 65 feet farther than his ¾ brother. Many of us are expecting a flawless ride by John Velazquez taking full advantage of a rail trip with Sano’s trainee. Johny V with Authentic was outsmarted by Robby Albarado on Swiss Skydiver in the delayed 2020 Preakness … Robby robbed Johny V of his first Preakness with a surprising early move coming off the backstretch. The HOF Jockey was also second with Animal Kingdom in the 2011 Preakness Stakes… it would be tough against Epicenter but this time could be the charm for the veteran Jockey.
Sentimentally I would like Secret Oath to win the Preakness just to add excitement and perhaps put her in a similar path as Rachel Alexandar’s. That would be a real thrill…!
Happy weekend of racing and good luck in all your bets.
Should’ve won The Triple Crown!
Nelson, the most telling aspect of the early stage of the Preakness will be how John V guides his horse from Post 1. I think the race will be won or lost by Simplification depending on JV’s immediate decision. I have no clue as to what he will do! But I’ll be a betting supporter. Logic says I need to cover myself with an Epicenter-Simplification exacta.
I like the 20-1 on Skippylongstocking, don’t expect 20-1 though….think he’s improving!
Rich Strike becomes the 11th Kentucky Derby winner to not come back and race in The Preakness. What’s interesting is that none of the previous 10 came back to win The Belmont. So, as a strategy, the Derby winner pointing straight to The Belmont hasn’t worked so far. Three Derby Winners(Bubbling Over in 1926, Grindstone in 1996, & Country House in 2019) never raced again after their Derby victories. Spend A Buck in 1985 was lured to bigger money in New Jersey at a time when the Preakness purse was only $300,000. Like Rich Strike, Gato Del Sol’s connections in 1982 felt like the track and distance of The Belmont suited their horse better than the Pimlico race. Now, here’s something that’s very interesting. In the 1950s, five Derby winners skipped The Preakness: Count Turf(’51), Hill Gail(’52), Determine(’54), Swaps(’55), and Tomy Lee(’59). Why? I have no idea. I know that the Korean War was 1950-1953. Maybe that had something to do with it. IDK. And now it’s happened in 2 of the last 4 years. Let’s hope that it doesn’t become a trend.
I know that Boston Red Sox slugger Ted Williams had his career interrupted so that he could fly in Korea.
TommyMc – maybe this will help you solve the mystery.
1938 Lawrin Not eligible No
1951 Count Turf Not eligible Yes
1952 Hill Gail Injury No
1954 Determine Rest No
1955 Swaps Injury No
1959 Tomy Lee Rest No
1982 Gato Del Sol Rest Yes
1985 Spend A Buck Rest No
1996 Grindstone Injury No
2019 Country House* Illness No
2021 Mandaloun* Rest No
Bubbling Over never raced after his win in the Derby because he was going blind.
Grindstone was retired to stud 5 days after the Derby because of a bone chip. .
Country House was out of the Preakness due to a fever. In June of that same year, he was first “diagnosed with proximal suspensory ligament desmitis on both front fetlocks” in June. Country House then experienced complications, leading to his hospitalization at Rood and Riddle Equine Hospital on July 1 for an infection on his lower right fore. Because the right fore was not load bearing during his recovery from the infection, his left fore had to bear the extra weight and developed laminitis. Over the next several months, the laminitis was stabilized and Country House was then turned out to pasture. He is expected to fully recover but will never be able to race again.
Thanks.
Thanks for the excellent post, Lynda, especially the update on Country House. So glad to hear he’s on the mend. Whenever I hear “laminitis” or “colic” I shudder.
When an owner supplements a horse into a race, where does that money go? Does the track bank it or does it go into the purse of the race?
Another former BB horse, Under the Stars, was scratched today at Pimlico by new trainer Sean McCarthy. Under the Stars was the 8/5 Morning Line Favorite in the race. Presumably, Adare Manor will still be running in The Black Eyed Susan. The only reason that I mention it is that I’ve noticed a few of the former BB horses being scratched around the country. No idea why. Speaking of former BB horses, I remember that Blackadder was originally being pointed to The Preakness. He was transferred from BB to Rodolphe Brisset and ran 9th in The Bluegrass at Keenland. I read somewhere that he has now been transferred to Christophe Clement. I don’t know if that’s true. But, to me, Clement means turf. Let’s see if Blackadder resurfaces in turf races in New York. People might remember Blackadder as the winner of The Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate.
I said before the race Rick Strike had zero chance, so I’m betting on Happy Jack, cuz I just said he has zero chance!
So I guess you’re betting on lightening striking twice! 🙂
Really just a joke, there’s no way I can bet a horsr in the Preakness that has been beat 68 lengths, in last four starts.
Unless he was beaten 65 lengths in just one of the last 4.
Interestingly, Happy Jack won his very first race. Unfortunately, he has lost each of his next four races by 10 or more lengths. I’m not criticizing anybody. The connections have to take their shots when they have a good horse. But, this could be a case of too much too soon. Just 2 weeks after that Maiden breaker, Happy Jack ran in the G3 Robert B Lewis. The G2 San Felipe a month after that. The G1 Santa Anita Derby the very next month. And, of course, the G1 Kentucky Derby just 2 weeks ago. That would be a very tough schedule for even the “Greats” of the sport.
Adare Manor is the 5-2 Morning Line Favorite for tomorrow’s Blackeyed Susan. Professional handicappers seem to be lining up to bet against her. Mostly, because of a perceived abundance of speed entered in the race. The trainer change also seems to bother people. Her last 4 workouts look very BB-like on paper. Last Saturday, she put up a :58.6 over 5-furlongs. New trainer Sean McCarthy has put those last 4 works into her and he sounds pretty optimistic about her chances: “I’m really, really happy with her.” I really liked what I saw from Adare Manor until she got beat by Desert Dawn in The Santa Anita Oaks. Then I saw Desert Dawn finish 3rd in The Kentucky Oaks at long odds. I’m only going to make a couple of bets on Friday. I prefer to save my bankroll for Saturday and next month’s Belmont. But, I think that Adare Manor is the best horse in the race and if she goes off at 5-2 or better, I’ll make a modest bet on her and hope that Johnny V doesn’t get caught too wide from the #10 post and can rate just off the other speed horses. Betting the favorite in a 13-horse race is never a good idea, but I’m a fan of the horse and I have no problem with Sean McCarthy as her trainer.
The Blackeyed Susan goes off at around 5:44pm and The Preakness on Saturday at 7:01pm. So, maybe the severe heat will ease up a little by post times for those races.
Hope so.
I just don’t love the barn changes, new surroundings, etc….I love the big filly! Using in pick threes and fours, not betting win, but if she won big I wouldn’t be surprised, this field is much easier than KY Oaks was, and Adare Manor is good….
If she can lay a couple off it in 3rd, she wins….if she tries for the front I think she won’t win….
Special Weather Statement
Baltimore, Maryland
Alert:
…EARLY SEASON HEAT FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY…
Temperatures will rise into the 90s Friday, Saturday, and Sunday
for the first time since last Autumn. Friday will be the first 90
degree day in the Baltimore and Washington Metropolitan Areas
since last September. Saturday is forecast to be the hottest day
of the weekend, with many locations reaching the mid-90s and heat
indices approaching 100. This level of heat will continue through
Sunday.
The abrupt beginning of hot temperatures early in the season after
a relatively cool spring brings an increased risk of heat
illnesses unless proper precautions are taken for those working
or recreating outdoors.
I’m concerned for horses.
Same here.
Yup, more so the west coast horses.
I’m concerned for all horses,regardless.
Do they still saddle them in the sunshine on the turfcourse?
What about me? My husband is dragging me to a roots concert on Preakness Saturday!
It’s OUTDOORS. No shade.
Steve, Great article and Great Analysis. When this year’s Kentucky Derby was over it brought back memories for me of the 1986 derby where Ferdinand was victorious. Sonny Leon’s move to the rail was similar to Shoemaker’s on Ferdinand’s ( except Shoe did not have to pass a tiring front runner ) Speaking of that tiring frontrunner ( Messier ) I was surprised he was not in this race. In the ’86 derby, the favorite in that race was a horse named Snow Chief. He too got burned up on the front end by a blistering pace similar to Messier, but came back to win the Preakness. Messier was lightly raced this past spring and I feel he would build on stamina from his race in the Derby. I think Baffert would have moved him forward but Yakteen thinks he has distance limitations ( I don’t agree ) but Yakteen said he came out of the race OK. When Baffert gets him back we will probably see him in the Haskell. Taiba and Messier should be pointed for derbies (split them between the 2 races )like Indiana and Ohio… confidence builders and then pointed to either Pennslyvania or American Pharoah in the fall in preparation for the Breeder’s Cup. I don’t think Baffert is going to be allowed to run New York (The Evil Empire ). Armagnac is a nice horse but not at the same level as the 2 above. Epicenter looks tough in the Preakness … pace will make the race for him. Have a Great Weekend Steve !!!
I think it’s been over 10 years since a horse won the Preakness after prepping for the triple crown in Florida. But I agree with Steve and others that Simplification may be the ticket. I don’t know if anyone has commented on the wide trip entering the stretch that many horses had in the Kentucky Derby. There had to be at least six or seven horses that were 7 to 10 paths out as they came into the stretch. I never saw anything like it in the derby. Simplification was one of them. If I were betting I would put $1,000 on the Pride of Gulfstream Park!
Poor exercise rider for Simplification. He is getting dragged around the track like a rag doll. Powerful gallops, super tight reigns, feet on the dash. This is looking like an easy exacta to me now between Simp & EV.
Roberta, have you ever played the board game “Squatter”? You buy sheep farms, improve the pastures plus buying Prize Marino Rams to increase the yield of wool. There are quite a few rams called the Pride of this or that stud. You might enjoy the game it’s a bit like monopoly.
Anyway, the Pride of Gulfstream Park is surely belongs to White Albarrio but in the case of the Preakness I guess it’s fitting that Simplification can borrow the title. Ha ha Good luck, but should Simplification win I wouldn’t calculate your ‘lost’ winnings. Life can be full of regrets. Lol.
I can’t find a single negative with Early Voting coming into this race.
Except maybe now the weather. Legitimate concern for horses that aren’t used to it.
Brad Cox – This most recent infraction regarding phenylbutazone (Bute), at a level of 2.51 micrograms per milliliter in blood, is not his first one. In 2020 he received two fines for medication violations—one for naproxen (occurring in 2019 but issued in 2020) and another for Bute. Naproxen is in the same drug class as Bute, a nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs).
These drugs are used for the management of mild to moderate pain, fever, and inflammation and commonly used anti-inflammatory that is permitted therapeutically. Most State racing commissions have withdrawal guidelines that call for it not to be used within 24 hours of a race.
If you are a horse owner as I am you have more than likely had at least one situation to arise that your veterinarian has prescribed Bute or another NSAID such as Banamine or Equioxx.
Up until a few years ago, if I had a horse that was in need of an anti-inflammatory pain medication, I could call my vet, explain what the issue is and she would prescribe Bute or one of the other NSAIDS over the phone and I could the meds up at the vet clinic. That is no longer the case, at least here in Georgia. The FDA now tightly regulates the dispersion of Bute, Banamine and Equioxx and the horse must be seen by the veterinarian before a script can be written.
Yes, Bute and the other aforementioned NSAIDS are primarily anti-inflammatories but they have the added benefit of managing pain and masking pain. Some years ago back home in Virginia. I had two horses to develop “white line disease” in their hooves which can be very painful for horses. When I asked my veterinarian about pain medication, he told me no. His comment was that pain meds can not only dull the pain but they can also mask the pain entirely and put the horse at risk for injuring themselves.
I have no knowledge of the particulars about the Brad Cox situation(s). Additionally I am in no way making an accusation that the Bute was administered with end result being its use was as a performance enhancing drug; to maks or totally dull the pain so that the horse(s) could race.
What this situation does tell me is the KHRB is cracking down on repeated violations of overages of controlled substances. To the best of my knowledge, Cox was not suspended as a result of the previous violations, but this time he was given ten days suspension.
Additionally I have made the same conclusion about Baffert’s suspension in reference to Medina Spirit.
Or does it?
In light of the criticisms that have been leveled against the KHRB and CHDI over the Baffert matter, what better way to negate the “bad press” than to go after a “favorite son” of Kentucky?
Regardless, this all points back to what I and countless others have been saying for years, there has to be an independent governing body over drugs, medications, testing and sanctions.
The Preakness is passé. Even when the Derby winner is entered, it’s the weakest field of the TC races. It doesn’t even compare in quality to later 3yo races such as the Travers and Haskell. And I never understood the point of a cutback in distance from the Derby’s 10f. Make it 10.5 or 11 furlongs, 3 weeks after the Derby, or just get rid of it!!!!!
Provocative enough? 😉
* Make Preakness 1st leg of triple crown
* 4 weeks between all triple crown races
* Max 14 horses in a triple crown race
20 horses can’t fit on a track. This is the derby’s critical flaw. I don’t know why this isn’t argued as a safety issue. As dumb as the unwritten rules in baseball. Evolve already. Just my 2 cent bet.
Plenty of weak Belmonts this century ..
Break up the Triple Crown!
Randomly noticed that Native Dancer’s Preakness (1953) was run 3 weeks after the KYD.
Same was true in 1955 and then they proceeded to run the Belmont just 2 weeks after the Preakness.
Gotta believe there are many other examples of this. Anybody know why?
Early 1920s they ran Derby/Preakness SAME DAY….(ONCE..)..
Shake it right up: Preakness first up at 1 mile, 4 weeks later the Kentucky Derby 10f, 5 weeks later the Belmont Stakes at 12f. The preps can switch between 7f to 9f as alternative options to confront a stiff mile, Preakness.
Saratoga can use the Wilson Chute for the mile Preakness Stakes. Yay, Saratoga gets a Spring meet as well as Summer now. Win/win.
A hundred years ago, the Preakness was held a week before the Kentucky Derby, at its current distance. In 1923, Zev ran so dismally in the Preakness that Sam Hildreth didn’t go to Kentucky, missing his win in the Derby. The trainer of record is his assistant, David Leary. Zev was the only Derby winner trained (in reality) by Hildreth, who was banned from New York tracks in 1900 for more than four years. Unlike another trainer and former jockey I could name, he earned his banishment by clubbing a fellow trainer, John Madden, with a walking cane in an unprovoked attack. Times were different then.
Interesting. Thanks for sharing.
Yes, Ms Blacktype, remember the infamous ‘Caning of Charles Sumner’ in the US Senate Chamber in 1856?
Times were indeed different then. Thankfully, we now live in a time of peace and harmony. /s
Regarding the heat and humidity factor, I read that the late H. Allen Jerkens added a little salt to his horse’s water. He did this while he was stabled year round in Florida the last couple of years of his life. The horses got less dehydrated when he did that. And now, without lasix, that is less of a problem as well. But I have seen horses who can not tolerate hot weather (as I live in Florida).
I just checked the forecast for Baltimore on Saturday and they are predicting 95 degrees. I’m not sure which horses will be affected by the heat, but, I think we will surely see some sunburned faces on that “party crowd” in the infield. I wouldn’t want to be the guy wearing the “Marshmello Head” out there on Saturday.
Thankful that the horses are running without Lasix. They will lose valuable and necessary electrolytes through sweating in these temps, but not nearly as much as they would be losing with Lasix.
What Mr. Jerkens did was a forerunner to flavored electrolytes to add the horse’s water that we have today. It was very wise of him to do so.
Another factor of the Preakness is the weather. It will be hot and humid on the day of the Preakness. And a horse, who has trained in the heat and humidity found in Florida might have an advantage. Simplification might due well due to this.
Steve love your columns so much !! Brad Cox gets 10 days Baffert 2 years seems unfair would love your thoughts
Thanks Nick. I’ll answer you with a question. If you wanted to give your horse an advantage in order to win would you give him a skin ointment for a rash or an overage of a pain killer? Look, when you have a lot of horses mistakes are going to happen. Unfair, yes, but unfortunately for Baffert his mistakes came in the Ky. Derby and Ky. Oaks and the last thing you want to do in racing is get on the bad side of Churchill Downs, especially when you make their most iconic race look so easy to win.
I strongly believe that Baffert’s continued outlandish excuses and leaking credibility have contributed to the penalty imposed. Cox did not hold a press conference but agreed to the suspensions. He accepted the responsibility because it was clearly an overage against the rules. While Cox has had multiple infractions over a relatively short period of time, there are others who have not but accept the discipline. Shug McGaughey had a recent overage and took responsibility for it. When trainers fight the cases,they don’t hold press conferences. They are also trainers that aren’t having multiple drug interactions over a short period of time. Graham Motion did win his fight with Kentucky board, but he had never had an overage. Bill Mott settled after a 3 year fight. His case centered around due process as there wasn’t enough blood to do the split sample that New York allows trainers to have. He had not had a drug overage in over 10 years.
Secondly the delay in actually rendering judgement In many cases is that the boards and stewards are dotting all of the “I”s and crossing all of the “t”s to insure a watertight case.
After the extensive publicity from the Medina Spirit case, I think you will see a greater testing and maximum disciplinary actions especially at the tracks that are so visible to the public. Otherwise they will not survive.
Racing currently has a very serious appearance problem. We have much stronger whip rules, safe riding cases and a much greater attempt to prevent catastrophic injuries as a result of the pressure from animal rights organizations. Racing desperately cannot appear crooked In any way. There is too much at stake. It is no longer the only legitimate form of gambling. There is a great deal of competition from all the other betting venues for the gambler’s dollar. It must appear that it is above board and offers serious value to the bettor. Otherwise the bettors will go elsewhere with their money.
My thoughts on this are that Baffert has been in the spotlight with more then one case of infractions. Baffert also appeals just about every time. They wanted to shut him up. Brad just said ok and took the penalty. My problem with Brad is why did it take 11 months for it to happen? Did Brad appeal as I don’t know. I think a trainer should be able to appeal but they need to speed up the process.
I think if Brad got DQ’d and suspended in the Ky. Derby he would have appealed. Why wouldnt you fight that?
Absolutely correct Steve he would have as in Brad appealed. I also love the fact that Lukas is not afraid to bring up the white elephant in the room whenever he is asked about his horses, his old friend Bob Baffert.
They wasted little time suspending Baffert but took 11 months for Brad. I also read come July the federal government will be getting involved in horse racing now. Maybe the correct thing to say would be more involved. Not sure that will be for the benefit of the sport. If it streamlines the testing, results and consequences I can go along with that. Knowing the feds though they will screw it up somehow.
I look at these old friends, Wayne, Bob, Todd and more then I can list here off the top of my head. They worked together, competed against each other, trained the next ones, cried and laughed together. They along with the teams they have built from the grooms up are the bedrock of the track. Not an easy life. Early mornings, long hours.
I remember when Wayne Lukas was fighting cocaine positive, and it was an uphill court battle for him….horse tested positive, not Wayne!
The comparison should be between Cox’s 10-day KHRC suspension and Baffert’s 90-day KHRC suspension. The 2-year ban of Baffert was issued by Churchill Downs.
All about the Ky. Derby and you dont mess with Mother Nature or the CD/KHRC brand.
Thank you Steve. Looking forward to another great race. Really enjoy your writing. Certainly is a lot to consider.
Thanks Kenny
Thanks Steve.
My opinion is that this race will come down to Epicenter, Simplification, Secret Oath and Early Voting. Long shot pick to win is
Happy Jack.
Lynda, don’t forget the Irish 2,000 Guineas will be run this Saturday at the Curragh and the Irish 1,000 Guineas will be run on Sunday at the same track.
It’s hard not seeing Native Trail running away with the 2,000 Guineas but in the 1,000 Guineas, Mise En Scene could cause the upset. What a feast of racing over the weekend.
Thank you David’s for the heads up on those races.
Thanks for the analysis Mr. Haskin. Always look forwrd to your writings. I belive the Wood will prove to be a live race. As was a couple other NY preps this season. Mo Donegal didn’t disgrace himself in the Derby after getting a very suspect ride, “10 Wide”. I’d like to see what kind of thorograph pattern Skippylongstocking is on.
Skippy came off a 7 1/2 and has paired up 3 1/2 in is last two starts. He should improve after a pairing a career best number.
Thank You.
I think Skippy is sitting on a big race. I think he could win it with a 1.5 TG fig. Epicenter has spaced out all of his starts and we have no idea if he will like the heat and 2 week spacing. Skippy sire was a Preakness winner and Cloud Computing won after a third in the Wood…
Steve, perhaps it’s the distance from where I’m living now but, for me anyway, there doesn’t appear a great deal of excitement being generated by the Preakness Stakes this year. I understand the lack of the Derby winner and Zandon takes a lot of sparkle out of the race but I thought the inclusion of DWL’s filly Secret Oath would more than compensate for the absence of the above two runners. Let’s hope Secret Oath wins to add some pizzazz to the Triple Crown.
I must admit my interest in the Triple Crown immediately centered on the Belmont Stakes after We the People’s stylists win in the Peter Pan Stakes as well as the return of Flightline in the Metropolitan Handicap along with a host of other Grade 1 races. Not forgetting the Epsom Derby, June 4, either.
Do you sense an upset here, I do. Epicenter is an obvious favorite but he doesn’t come across as a dominant favorite. Anyway, Steve, your perspective was very interesting to read as always. The weather at Pimlico is a bit of a worry, hopefully it will be cooler or possibly some rain to dampen things down a little.
The average fan is interested in the Triple Crown and a horse tying to sweep it. Once thats gone so is the interest. We had a filly win th Preakness two year ago o even thats not as big a deal. Simplification would be my longshot pick. Creative Minister I feel might be bet down
I find myself thinking the same about Simplification too, Steve, but then it occurs to me that I may be overlooking Epicenter. I picked Epicenter, Zandon, and Simplification to hit the superfecta — just had the wrong long shot in the mix. I don’t think there’s a Rich Strike in the field this time. Although I’m leaning toward Simplification, I won’t be surprised if Epicenter wins easily.
Now, is it worth betting the last $6 in my Twin Spires account on one or the other? Won’t be much of a payday, even if I spring it all on an exacta.
I meant Epi, Zan, and Simp in the DERBY. Obviously can’t do that in the Preakness.
Steve, when I was watching the NBC coverage of the Kentucky Derby ‘from a distance’ you’d be mistaken that the racing was only a minor part of promoting football et al celebrities. It might help NBC overall but I can’t see it encouraging the viewers to follow horse racing.
The format NBC uses is a copy Australian Television used decades ago to reignite racing interest there with one acceptation, the horses are still the star of the show, not some sport, tv, movie celebrity who is there to promote, themselves. I just muted ithe coverage until the races started.
I’m know when the football, baseball, hockey finals are on they don’t have jockeys, trainers et al from horse racing mispronouncing names of the players, or the rules etc as if the real event was just a trifle.
I couldnt agree more
Davids, the coverage of the Triple Crown races suffered greatly when it was taken from ABC Wide World of Sports and given to NBC.
I lived in “the boonies” on a farm and we did not have an ABC affiliate station until I was in my teens. For years (until the breakdown of Ruffian), I would get up early and watch the coverage of all 3 races on ABC.
These days I might have the TV on and watch some of the races on the undercard but mute the “conversation” between races.
Think I understand now why the racing elites in the North said that the Kentucky Derby was organized by a bunch of backwater yahoos. LOL.
Yes Lynda, the ABC days with Jim McKay as host were/are my favorite Kentucky Derby days as well. The horses were treated reverently with a certain hush as you watched them parading.
The Derby was on CBS for the 70’s, Jack Whittacre, Charlsie Canty, Heywood Hale Broun…went to ABC in the 80’s, Charlie went over to ABC to work with Jim Mackay…
Actually Matthew, ABC started covering the Kentucky Derby in 1975. There’s a list of Kentucky Derby broadcasters on Wikipedia. I had to check, memory gets foggy sometimes.
Hi Steve
Thanks for posting an informative analysis on the Preakness Stakes. After all the weekly Derby Rankings, leading up to the Kentucky Derby, the Preakness seems almost an anticlimax event versus the Derby. Possibly, because the Derby winner is skipping this race, meaning the 2nd Jewel of the Triple Crown has lost it’s luster. Surely, the Belmont Stakes will offer more luster that is being lost in Preakness. Just my opinion.
With respect to betting, I’ll key Epicenter, Simplification and Creative Minister in the first three slots, with ALL underneath in the 4th slot. I’ll flip that over with ALL on top in the first slot, with Epicenter, Simplification and CM underneath in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th slots. Each Super bet will cost, $36.00 dollars.
Obviously, Creative Minister is making a big jump in class, but his last out race was very impressive, going 8.5 furlongs in 1:42.20, earning an Equibase Speed figure of 108 in the process. His connections supplemented 150K to enter CM in this race, so they must have high expectations of their colt.
My superfecta wagers:
1,2,8// 1,2,8// 1,2,8// All ($36.00)
ALL// 1,2,8// 1,2,8// 1,2,8 ($36.00) Hoping a big longshot pulls off an upset like Rich Strike did in the KD.
Hopefully, Secret Oath (racing against the boys) comes out of the race in good order, and moves on to race another day.
Safe trips to ALL.
I think this race comes down to Early Voting and Simplification (not sure which order).
200 Total
25W – Early Voting, Simplification
50P – Early Voting, Simplification
30Ex – EV > S
20Ex – S > EV
Lost -225 in the derby, but still up +565 on the derby trail overall.
Cloud Computing won The Preakness in only his 4th start and after getting beat in The Wood Memorial. Early Voting makes his 4th start in The Preakness after getting beat by Mo Donegal in The Wood. Can Chad Brown do it again?
The horse most likely to be in the exacta I think.
Chad said he couldn’t feel any better about the way he looks, how he’s training. And he sure did come out of that van looking like a trophy.
Mr. Haskin, kudos for wonderful work 24/7.
Thank you Mike
Nice analysis, Steve. I’m going with Simplification and JV’s ability to judge the pace and put the colt where he needs to be. Concerning the emerging star Creative Minister…Under the previous column, I asked if anyone could come up with a Preakness winner that had never before run in a stakes race. Nobody answered. 😉
Well…it would likely be recent, as horses used to race more often….Aloma’s Ruler? I admit I’m not at all knowledgeable about him…
Matthew, Aloma’s Ruler had raced in three stakes, the most recent being the Withers.
I only started following racing in 1973. I will guess that no horse has won The Preakness without running in a Stakes race in the 48 years since then. Before that, I really have no idea. Maybe Creative Minister can make history. This group of 3-year olds is not “great” IMO. Rich Strike won The Derby with a 102 BSF which is “unremarkable”.
TommyMc, please allow me to present the winning BSFs for the last 10 Derby winners (in May):
2021 102
2019 101
2018 103
2017 102
2016 103
2015 105
2014 97
2013 104
2012 101
2011 103
Define “unremarkable”. 🙂
I guess my definition would be California Chrome’s 97 BSF in 2014. I want to see a 104 BSF in The Derby and by The Belmont, I want to see a 108-110 BSF for the winner. The Derby numbers do seem to be dropping since American Pharoah’s 105 BSF in 2015 which was a good starting out point for his Triple Crown.
Let’s compare Rich Strike’s Derby win to Monarchos’ win in 2001. Both horses received insanely fast fractions to set them up for glory. Rich Strike earned a 102 BSF and Monarchos earned a 116 BSF. 116 would be “remarkable” and 102 would certainly be “unremarkable” under the circumstances.
BTW, I’ll always believe that Point Given was best in 2001 and failed in The Derby because Jockey Gary Stevens raced him TOO WIDE and TOO CLOSE to a “hot pace”. I’m a big fan of Gary Stevens. No one is perfect.
Strange that I can remember all of this and not what I ate for lunch yesterday.
I hope no one notices that I never miss a chance to “zing” the “Chromies”.
Mc, figures are no big deal when u prevail.
Winning is everything.
I’m no figures person. Saw Chrome win Derb.
Mike Relva, I always defer to what Angel Cordero, Jr said “”Any horse can win on any given day.”
Some are ‘hung up’ on numbers. Far from be all/end all.
“Beyer has noted, a speed figure is a numerical expression of a horse’s final time, universalized for distance, track surface, and the daily variant on that surface.” While Beyer has also noted that “speed figures tell you how fast a horse ran in the past; they do not necessarily predict how it will run today,” their use as a handicapping tool is premised on their ability to shed light on how a horse is likely to run in its next start.
TommyMC, in reference to you comment, “I hope no one notices that I never miss a chance to “zing” the “Chromies”. it almost sounds like you had an Andrew Beyer moment.
Beyer had a melt down after the running of the 2014 Kentucky Derby because California Chrome blew some holes in his theories.
MatthewW, feel free to “zing” on. This “Chromie” can take it.
I’m a Chromie…..his Beyer #’s going in were tops….his SA Derby was tremendous, his San Felipe, also …I talked with Art a couple years ago he said they were Derby ready after the San Felipe, and the extra race hurt their chances for the Triple Crown Chrome was a tired horse..
Yes, Chrome’s figure was the lowest by several points during that time period. But Rich Strike’s was closer to the norm of the past several years. And you can’t compare Monarchos’s figure to RS’s figure because all figures were higher 20 years ago. With respect to BSFs, the drop-off began after Big Brown.
Big Brown- admired him,sans his owner and barn.
True enough EddieF.
Groovy 1987 133
Groovy 1987 132
Ghostzapper 2004 128
Will’s Way 1997 126
Formal Gold 1997 126
Gentlemen 1997 126
Formal Gold 1997 125
Skip Away 1997 125
Bertrando 1993 125
Sunday Silence 1989 124
Easy Goer 1989 124
Formal Gold 1997 124
Artax 1999 124
Ghostzapper 2004 124
Midnight Lute 2007 124
Easy Goer 1989 123
Saint Liam 2005 123
Midway Road 2004 123
Candy Ride 2003 123
Aptitude 2001 123
Silver Charm 1998 123
Wild Rush 2001 123
Tejano Run 2001 123
Frosted 2016 123
Commentator 2005 123
Artax 1999 123
Kona Gold 1999 123
Prospect Bay 1999 123
Swept Overboard 1999 123
Elusive Quality 1999 122
Easy Goer 1989 122
Alysheba 1988 122
Arrogate 2016 122
Easy Goer 1989 121
Holy Bull 1994 121
Cigar 1995 121
Quality Road 2011 121
Commentator 2005 121
Easy Goer 1989 120
Arrogate 2016 120
American Pharoah 2015 120
Bellamy Road 2005 120
Commentator 2008 120
Gun Runner 2017 120
Good info!
EddieF, I researched back to 1950 for a horse that won the Preakness with zero starts in a graded stakes race and found none. Probably have to go back to at least 1915, the year that Regret won the Derby. Rhine Maiden, also a filly, won the Preakness in 1915. I cannot find any record of her running in a stakes race before the Preakness. There may have been others between 1915 and 1950 and between 1873 and 1915 but have not researched that far back.
Did find some interesting bits of Trivia on the Preakness.
All were 3 year olds other than Montaque, who was five when he won in 1890.
5 fillies have won the Preakness; Rachel Alexandra, Nellie Morse, Rhine, Maiden Whimsical, Flocarline
George Lorillard owned horses won the Preakness back to back in 1878, 1879, 1880, 1880 and 1882.
No Preakness races in 1891, 1892 and 1893
Calumet holds the record for either breeding or racing the Preakness winners.
Codex, the 1980 winner and owned by Tartan Farms (Mr John Nerud) was entered by mistake. Mr Nerud felt that the Triple Crown races were too hard on young horses and would not allow D Wayne Lucas to enter the colt. Lucas’ son Jeff, who was assistant trainer entered Codex by accident.
There have been 12 Preakness winners who sired Preakness winners or had male line descendants who sired the Preakness winner.
Good research, Lynda. A win by Creative Minister would be historic. It should be noted regarding fillies in the Preakness that only six have been entered since 1980. But two of the six WON the Preakness (Rachel Alexandra & Swiss Skydiver) while one was 2nd (Genuine Risk) and one was 3rd (Winning Colors). A longshot at 18-1 finished 10th in 2014. That’s an excellent record.
Oops, left out Swiss Skydiver. My bad. She was the 6th filly to win the Preakness.
Codex as a 2yo ran at the old Pomona Fair track…HALF MILE bullring, before Fairplex took over…
Thank Eddie. I agree about Simplification
I get the feeling that Secret Oath will go off as the 2nd favorite in The Preakness. I could be wrong though. I see Epicenter at even money or even odds-on. Very unappealing. The value will be beating Epicenter. In fact, trying to beat Epicenter for 1st or 2nd will be my play. $10 exacta box/baseball Simplification/Early Voting/Creative Minister. I will make a larger Win & Place wager on either Creative Minister or Early Voting. I want to bet on Early Voting, but, I’m concerned with the pace scenario. I’m still thinking about it. Look. How fast is Armagnac really? Maybe he’s a new horse without the blinkers. Looking at his “form”, he tends to “pack it in” if he doesn’t get the lead. I think Early Voting is faster. I also know that Chad Brown can teach a horse to rate. The trouble is that with only 3 races, Chad Brown probably hasn’t had enough time to work his magic on Early Voting. Last week, I predicted Early Voting & Epicenter running 1-2 all the way around the track. That could come back to haunt me. I have to try beating Epicenter because I expect him to get “hammered’ in the betting pools.
I know that we all like to keep the blog as positive as possible, but I have to make a negative comment. I think that this year’s Preakness field is pretty disappointing. In fact, I have to say that the entire Pimlico card on Saturday is disappointing. I was more excited about last Saturday’s Belmont card even though it featured several “short” fields. While Derby & Belmont Days thrive, Preakness Day feels kind of “blah”. What’s the solution? I say bigger purses for the undercard races. Most of the undercard Stakes races on Preakness Day have purses from $100,000-$150,000. Undercard Stakes races on Derby & Belmont Days are in the $300,000-$500,000 range. Put up the money and “they will come”. Secondly, there should be a bonus/point system for horses that compete in the 3 Triple Crown races. Get a corporate sponsor or NBC to put up the cash. “They will Come.”
Saratoga, Churchill, Keenland, and even Kentucky Downs run Maiden races with $100,000 purses.
Preakness card is never close to Churchill or Belmont Day cards…..
True. Maybe I’m just spoiled by looking at all those great races on Oaks-Derby Weekend. BTW, speaking of the Saturday races at Pimlico, do you know the best way to handicap an Arabian race? ……. Pull a number out of a hat.
What I also noticed here is the jockeys not named Tyler Gaffalione has ever won the Preakness….yet won 5 Kentucky Derbys, 6 Belmont Stakes, approximately 25,000 races and 7 Eclipse Awards…..but no Preakness Stakes other than Mr. Gaffalione.
Don’t see Happy Jack (Mr. G) winning so one of the other eight jockeys will finally win this elusive and evasive Triple Crown race….
Interesting, John. Rosario and Velasquez have both been 2nd twice.
Meant to say THREE times.
Creative Minister was supplemented for $150k….had an easier race than the Derby horses, who we whipped and tired, at race’s end….the filly also had a hard race! A Creative Minister/Early Voting exacta box looks like a chicken dinner! The 2022 KY Derby was a tough heat!
Still like Secret Oath. Shorter distance this time and only 9 running. Weather looking good this part of the country, but it will be hot. Expect a fast track.
Half furlong longer, Laura. She’ll be well supported this time out, but she’ll need a quick pace.
You are correct as I meant the shorter distance of the Preakness vs the Derby.. They drew well for her so now we wait and see. I don’t expect the first quarter to be as fast as the Derby as that was nuts.
Longer for her…Oaks was 9 furlongs Preakness is 9 1/2… fillies are equal to males in speed and stamina but not in strength, and dirt racing requires strength, between sprint and marathon distances, I wouldn’t care as much were this the 12 furlong Belmont, but for the Preakness I’ll try to beat her.
MatthewW, please define “strength” as it relates to racehorses.
I cannot, bur after watching horses run around in circles for decades I am aware of yhe fact that while fillies can and do beat males at quarter miles up to 6 furlongs on dirt…..and at 12-16 furlongs on dirt. Fillies beating males from 8 to 10 furlongs are a rarity—-thus my contention fillies are equal in speed…equal in stamina. but not even close to males, in between…..
On DIRT.
Excellent points Matthew W.
I’ve always been concerned that fillies will over-extend themselves racing against top level colts on dirt.
Racing on turf is a different story, which happens quite often in England, France and Ireland.
The legs don’t take the pounding on turf like they do on dirt. Fortunately, Secret Oath came out of the Arkansas Derby in good order. Evidently, her connections (mainly D. Wayne Lukas) feels she’s fit enough to test the boys once again. I remain skeptical of her chances to take down the like of Epicenter, Simplificatin, Early Voting and Creative Minister. We’ll see.
Only way to find out is go for it. I also understand after Saturday the rest of the year will be filly races only per the owners. Think also they plan on giving her a break and wait for the Coaching Club for her next start. That was from an interview with Lukas on HRN.
It is going to be stinking hot, muggy east coast weather that day. As it is late on the race card some of that heat should be gone by the time they run the Preakness.
If Secret Iathwins the Preakness I’ll be shocked if she’s not entered vs colts in later races, it’s Wayne’s way….
See my reply to Lynda, above. 🙂