Steve’s Sleepers: Commandperformance
Steve’s Sleepers: Commandperformance
By Steve Haskin
Whether you are a bloodstock agent or racing manager touting an under-the-radar Kentucky Derby prospect to your owner for possible purchase or just a simple journalist playing those roles, it is disheartening to “discover” a hidden talent, going out on a limb, and then seeing that horse turn into a bust. But as any racing person knows, it is going to happen more times than not. We are not risking anyone’s money here; just having fun and seeing if we can all find untapped talent, tell their story, and then following those horses hoping one or two can buck the odds and make it to the Kentucky Derby.
The first sleeper who caught my eye was a handsome gray Union Rags colt trained by Todd Pletcher named Commandperformance. If he didn’t have such an eventful trip in his career debut he probably would have won, and being trained by Pletcher and owned by the powerful team of St. Elias Stable and Mike Repole, he no longer would qualify as a sleeper. So let’s hop on his bandwagon now and tell his story and the story of his dam Smitten.
First, going back over his maiden race, he went into the six-furlong event at Saratoga on September 6 coming off two strong five-furlong works in 1:00 and change and then a half-mile drill in :47 3/5 from the gate, fifth fastest of 134 works at the distance. As soon as they crossed the finish line I knew this was a horse worth following.
Breaking from the disadvantageous inside post first time out, he was slammed into hard from a chain reaction and was bounced sideways about a dozen feet, winding up just inches from the rail. By the time Irad Ortiz was able to gather him he had one horse beat in the nine-horse field and was still down on the inside getting mud kicked in his face.
At the three-eighths pole, Ortiz eased him out a couple of paths, but he was still some six lengths behind the 5-2 favorite Don’t Wait Up, who was coming off a nose defeat to one of Pletcher’s promising colts Power Agenda.
Still bottled up in traffic turning for home, Ortiz kept waiting for a hole to open. And when none did, he hit Commandperformance three times left-handed to try to get him to the outside. But when he saw the colt was getting out too far, he switched to a right-handed whip and Commandperformance found another gear and quickly surged forward. But he was still fourth at the eighth pole with Don’t Wait Up drawing well clear of the field. Ortiz let the colt come home on his own under a hand ride and he narrowed the favorite’s four-length lead to two lengths at the wire, while finishing nearly three lengths clear of the third horse in a field strung out 25 lengths from first to last. They covered the six furlongs in a sharp 1:10 2/5 with Commandperformance closing his final eighth in a swift :12 1/5.
But what really impressed me about him was the way he shrugged off several obstacles on a muddy track in his career debut, the fluidity of his stride, the smoothness of his lead change, his turn of foot in the stretch, and how perfectly he holds his legs under him. In other words, mechanically he was flawless.
I’m not so sure he needs another maiden race, as this to me was equivalent to a victory and I saw all I needed to see to convince me he is ready to take the next step up.
Pedigree-wise, he is by Belmont Stakes and Champagne winner Union Rags, the sire of the St. Elias-Repole 3-year-old stakes winner Dynamic One. He also has the unique distinction of being inbred top and bottom to a U.S. Triple Crown winner (Seattle Slew) and an English Triple Crown winner (Nijinsky, the only horse to sweep that Triple Crown in the last 51 years).
Commandperformance, who was purchased at the Keeneland yearling sale for $220,000, is out of the Tapit mare Smitten, who was bred in Kentucky by Extern Developments. She sold as a weanling for $175,000 then pinhooked to the Keeneland Yearling Sale, where she was purchased by Rick Porter’s Fox Hill Farm for $280,000. What stands out in Smitten’s pedigree is that her dam, Hi Lili, s out of multiple stakes winner Snit, who is a daughter of Rokeby Stable’s Fit to Fight, the last of only four horses to sweep the old Handicap Triple Crown (Met Mile, Suburban, and Brooklyn Handicaps), previously won by Whisk Broom II, Tom Fool, and Kelso.
On July 27, 2011, Smitten’s half-brother J C’s Pride, by Henny Hughes, broke the track record for five furlongs at Saratoga, winning a race maiden in :56.54 by 3 1/4 lengths.
Smitten, trained by Larry Jones, was a hard-luck filly, whose career as a racehorse and a broodmare went unfulfilled, and it’s now up to Commandperformance to give her the recognition of which she was deprived.
Smitten was nothing to look at as a 2-year-old, and Jones had an array of stars in his barn at the time and paid little attention to her. But one person who fell in love with her was Jonathan Cozart, who was working for Jones as a hotwalker at the time. She became very special to him and was the horse who took the sport from a source of enjoyment to a passion for him.
Cozart eventually went to work for TVG and now also breeds Thoroughbreds. He met his wife Melissa, who works for Hermitage Farm in Goshen, Kentucky, when they both were working at Ellis Park. They have two sons ages 5 and 2.
When Smitten turned 3, she put on weight and a good deal of muscle and developed into a magnificent athlete, one who Jones started mentioning in the same breath as Eight Belles, his ill-fated filly who finished second to Big Brown in the Kentucky Derby. And he had major stakes winners Believe You Can, Joyful Victory, and Mark Valeski at the time.
Following two solid efforts in October at Keeneland and Churchill Downs in her first two starts, Smitten broke her maiden going a mile and 70 yards at Fair Grounds on December 16, 2012, demonstrating an excellent turn of foot. Jones said after the race he would point her for the Silverbulletday Stakes at the Fair Grounds, telling Brisnet.com, “I think she learned a lot in that last race. She’s starting to be more of a push-button type of horse now. In fact, she’s improving so fast lately that she’s starting to remind me of where Eight Belles (also owned by Fox Hill Farm) was at this point in her career.”
Smitten by now had become such a major part of Jonathan and Melissa’s life they started a Facebook page for her on January 11, 2013, which has over 2,200 followers. The profile photo on the page is a painting Melissa made for Jonathan of Smitten before they started dating.
In the Silverbulletday on January 19, she broke slowly, dropped back to 10th, 13 lengths off the pace, and then unleashed a powerful five-wide move to finish third, beaten only 1 3/4 lengths. After she worked a bullet three furlongs in :34 3/5, Jones pointed her for the February 23 Rachel Alexandra Stakes. But shortly after the work she got a rusty nail stuck in her hock, causing foot issues from which she would never fully recover. Jones tried her on turf because of her breeding, but she did little running. After another poor effort in June at Churchill Downs, she was retired and sold to Russell Davis of Damara Farm.
In 2018, Smitten was bred to Union Rags and the following year, on March 23, she produced a beautiful gray colt. But about five weeks after foaling, she developed a serious case of colic and was sent to Rood and Riddle clinic for surgery, where she continued to nurse her foal. Whether it was from the stress of the surgery, she developed laminitis a few days later. When it became apparent that she could not be saved, Jim Herbener, at whose Herbener Farm she was residing, took the foal back home and put him on a nursemare. Shortly after, with all hope gone, Smitten was euthanized. She was 9 years old.
“I was devastated when I learned of her passing,” Cozart said. “I would love for her story to be told the world over. I hope her son affords her that chance.”
The colt grew into a “grand-looking individual,” according to Herbener. “I was very high on him physically and we were happy with the price he brought at the sale and who bought him.”
Destin Heath, the farm trainer at WinStar Farm where Commandperformance got his early training, remembers him well.
“I can’t forget that one,” he said. “At first he was difficult to be around. He was a very tough, high energy colt who was strong-willed. We couldn’t get to the bottom of him. You needed to have the right pony with him and put the right rider on him. But we were extremely high on him, so we were patient and worked with him. In general he was a very nice horse to be around. When we had him at the farm during breaking season he was physically impressive to look at; a man among boys who did everything with ease. I kept thinking, ‘Man, when he puts it all together.’ We had him on the Polytack here at the farm, but when we transferred him to our Keeneland barn and put him on dirt he really started to excel and climbed the ladder very quickly. We worked him with our better horses and he just did everything so easily. St. Elias had some good horses and I told their people they would be good early on, but this colt will be the one who has the more prosperous career. I thought he was the best horse in his maiden race and now the sky’s the limit.”
So, now here we are, with a young unproven horse at his first crossroads. The horse who beat him likely will be heading into stakes company. Will he follow despite being a maiden? Will he eventually make people aware of his dam, so her story can continue to be told? Or are we off base with him, making this column irrelevant? That is the fascinating aspect of early life on the Derby trail. There is no way of knowing what you have. You just keep digging for gold, looking for anything that glistens, and then hope you’ve hit the mother lode. And this colt sure did glisten.
Even if Commandpeformance doesn’t fulfill his promise for whatever reason, at least we know the story of Smitten. It is horses like her who had a profound effect on people’s lives that need to be recognized.
Photos courtesy of John Sparkman and Jonathan Cozart
Im betting strong on Command performance wps……he looks like a good horse….i also like Christopher but betting the odds
Commandperformance is listed at 10-1 on the morning line for the G1 Champagne Stakes. I’ll go with Gunite at 4-1, but it’s doubtful he’ll remain at those odds at post time. I’m surprised to see the two maiden winners, My Prankster (5/2) and Jack Christopher (9/5) favored over Gunite. The Champagne should be a great race for the eastern colts moving forward.
Betters are taking your que Eddie, The Institute is bet down to 4-5 from his 5-1 M/L. We’ll see….
Was he bet down to 4-5 early in the betting? Because he went off at 3-1. Dismal performance.
Hey Davids, thanks for mentioning Ribot: Parts 1 & 2. I had wanted to see some of Ribot’s races and these excellent docs on You Tube were just the ticket. I got goosebumps as I watched Ribot’s story unfold (due in part to the moving sound tracks). A true and popular champion without a doubt. European fans in the ’50s were so lucky to be able to witness one of the greatest racehorses of all time.
It’s a shame that Federico Tesio, his brilliant breeder, did not live to see him run. Of course, Ribot would continue to enhance Tesio’s breeding legacy at stud.
Looking forward to the Arc de Triomphe this weekend.
I was as close to Ribot at Darby Dan as anyone and was close friends with this groom Floyd. I have tons of photo of Ribot. I wrote a feature on Floyd and Ribot back in the 70s. Floyd gave me Ribot’s bridle.
Steve, you lucky son of a gun. Wish I could have seen him up close and personal. Ribot Part 1 stated that while he was small in stature, he had a huge heart and his girth expanded some 8″ due to rigorous endurance training. Little wonder that he could get a distance.
I’d like to read your article on Floyd and Ribot, Steve. Where can I find it?
Actually it was in Stud & Stable magazine in England, Europes leading racing magazine at the time. Maybe3e I’ll reprint it here at some point. I would have to transcribe from the original copy.
Thanks Steve. If you can print it here, great. But, if it will take a lot of time to transcribe it, then don’t bother, I can look for other stories on Ribot. A horse of his repute would, no doubt, have a lot of stories to search for, I would imagine.
Steve, I would be happy to transcribe the article if you can send it to me.
Mr. Haskin, did Ribot live into his 30’s?
Unfortunately he was only 20
Thanks! Have a good week! Flying to Vegas next week to seek my fortune. lol
‘Break the bank’!!
Thanks Davids! Going to give it a real go.
Hi Dewey, it was sceptre who put me on to the wonderful Ribot: Pars 1 & 2 documentary. Timeless champion, who remains in the handful of truly great racehorses. It’s amazing what you can find on YouTube.
I guess you’ve read that St Mark’s Basilica is being retired. He’ll get every chance at Coolmore so it’s up to him, they are very high on him so, wait and see. Racing Post has an informative article on his retirement.
Usually with the Arc, an inside post is a distinct advantage and the weather has to be watched out for. I like Tarnawa but it’s wide open with many chances just hope it’s not a bog track.
Then it’s Sceptre I shall thank as well. I will watch Ribot: Pwrts 1 & 2 again as they were both top class productions.
I’m sad to see St. Mark’s Basilica retire but all good things come to an end. Let’s hope he passes on some of his brilliance in the breeding shed. Au revoir, SMB.
Anxious to see the final entries for the Arc. I always place a small bet on this classic, even though I’m not familiar with most of the contestants. Longchamps is such a beautiful venue for the Arc. It had been on my bucket list to visit for many years but I never got to go, and now it’s too late as I have mobility issues. C’est la vie!
Speaking of Longchamps, I recently saw, for the third time, a enjoyable movie titled “A Little Romance”. Have you seen it?
One of the scenes takes place at Longchamps where Sir Lawrence Olivier, in the role of a senior pickpocket, places bets for two underage kids who have a system that proves profitable. This is a charming lighthearted film with a sentimental ending. The cast are all well suited for their roles.
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No, I have not seen “A Little Romance” but I will soon. Thank you. I can see the charm in the trailer. I thought I had seen every Lawrence Olivier film. “The Entertainer” is my favorite Olivier film, a tour de force performance with the master actor dazzling in his range. Brilliant is an understatement.
How sad you are now unable to visit ParisLongchamp. Do you know Chantilly? Chantilly racecourse is my favorite track of all. Stunning historic architecture, historic stables, with the beauty of a picturesque forest surrounding the complex.
Good luck with whoever you choose for the Arc. Allez, Tarnawa!
Yes Davids, I must agree that “The Entertainer” is among Olivier’s best work. His acting range is amazing as he is able to immerse himself in any character.
I am aware of Chantilly which I would say is one of the most beautiful tracks in the world, especially for its architecture.
Chantilly would have been included had I been able to visit Longchamp.
Tarnawa looms as the one to beat in the Arc. Bon chance!
Dewy, don’t forget there is a wonderful warm up race before the Arc but at Newmarket on Saturday. One of my favorite races as well, the Sun Chariot Stakes, has a wonderful field with the beautiful Snow Lantern having a good chance of ‘revenge.’ Gagner ma beauté!!
Davids, I’ll be watching the Sun Chariot Stakes on Saturday just to get a look at Snow Lantern.
As for the Arc on Sunday, Charlie Appleby has a strong hand in Adeyar and Hurricane Lane. I will opt for Hurricane Lane who offers a better price. He has a consistent win record and seems to be getting better. His only loss, 3rd at Royal Ascot, occurred when he lost two shoes during the race. Another horse that I fancy is Chrono Genesis from Japan. He’ll have no trouble with the soft going and is regarded as the best Japanese horse to compete in the Arc.
Que les dieux de la course vous sourient!
Dewey, Hurricane Lane has a better post position than Adeyar as well. So the best of luck to you with Hurricane Sky. Chrono Genesis has a difficult post position to contend with due to course structure. Mind you, Timeform likes your three horses so you have that going for you.
Even so, if Tarnawa gets good position throughout there isn’t St Mark’s Basilica’s speed to deny her. Que le meilleur cheval gagne, avance Tarnawa.
Dewey, Snow Lantern obviously needs a break now her performance was not typical, very disappointing. On a better note, it was so pleasing seeing Art Collector win his first Grade 1 race in the Woodward Stakes. Hopefully, Art Collector is the son to replace Bernardini.
Davids, it looked like Snow Lantern was in distress in the final furlong of the Sun Chariot Stakes as the rider was easing up on her? I hope she’s okay.
Yes, it was good to see Art Collector deliver on his potential to be a Grade I winner. Now healthy, he seems to be getting better with each race.
Attention! Les Allemands ont remporte l’Arc. Brats et biere sont maintenant servis. At least we both had a good run with Tarnawa and Hurricane Lane. In review, Torquator Tasso had a good record in Germany with a record of 6-2-4-0 in Group i races. While not one of the favorites, he certainly didn’t deserve to go off at 70-1. No respect for German bred horses, I would guess?
Oh waiter, brats and beer for this table, please. After all, it is October Fest.
Dewey, the English always undervalue non-English runners and tend to over praise their home runners. Funny thing, when it comes to football(soccer) it’s the reverse. Lol. The post position, inside, is always favorable so I expected both Tarnawa and Hurricane Lane to run well. From previous experience, the German breds are stout stayers that can handle trying conditions extremely well. I truly admire the German breeding program.
Keeneland next weekend, one of my favorite meets.
The film recommendations are much appreciated. I haven’t seen but one of Olivier’s films since I was too young and distracted to properly appreciate them — and theb was put off by the horrible adaptation of a text for his film.
I too was a big fan of Ribot. I never knew him as a race horse but I loved him as a stallion. I like distance ability and his offspring almost always had it. When I try to think of full brothers who were both outstanding sires, his sons Graustark and His Majesty are the first ones that come to mind. I also read that Ribot was very temperamental, taking out light bulbs and objecting to cows grazing in a nearby meadow. Did you see that side of him, Steve?
The Institute, the 2yo I mentioned last week, is entered in the Aspirant Stakes today at Finger Lakes (R8). This what I wrote about him:
>>> One other maiden 2-year-old that impressed me was The Institute in Race 6 at Saratoga on September 2. It was a MSW (NY breds) at 5.5 furlongs.
The Institute debuted as the 2-1 favorite, and he broke from Post 1. Trained by Horacio DePaz, this colt by Into Mischief is out of Princess Violet who won the G1 Madison Stakes (7f) and was second in the G1 Mother Goose (8.5f).
You need to see the colt’s trip to believe it, but the chart description will give you a good idea:
“THE INSTITUTE broke out then was corrected by the rider and hustled, showed speed on the inside of three foes, was taken up badly and checked inside of a rank foe inside the nine-sixteenth then dropped back significantly, lost around four to five lengths on the front, raced inside early on the turn then moved to the two path under a firm left-handed grip, gained passing the five-sixteenths, swung six wide into upper stretch, chased the winner under the crop while outside in the drive and missed while clear for the place.”
With all of that, he lost by one length, and he was 1.5 lengths clear of the show horse. I’m not aware of a back story, but I’m anticipating his return. <<<
If he finishes up the track, please disregard this post. 😮
Hey EddieF:
Free “race of the day” PPs for the Aspirant today over at DRF. Thought you’d like to know!
Thanks, I had the Brisnet PPs. It was a poor effort from The Institute. So much for trip handicapping. 😉
Happiness is the start of a new batch of columns by the inestimable Steve Haskin!. And judging by the substance and number of replies thus far, you’ve already hit this one out of the park. Thanks, Steve
Thanks. Hopefully the interest will contiinue
Steve: Since FoxSports2 cut away to a college football game, I didn’t actually see Race 6 at Belmont, but TWO sleepers finished two-three behind lights-out winner Overstep: Asymmetric, who impressed me in the walking ring, and Thrill of It, a $1,000 horse at the yearling sales. Did you catch the race, and what are your impressions?
Yep, but I cant put another Pletcher-Repole horse there quite yet.
I’m sure you will come up with an intriguing prospect. Can’t wait to see which one.
Asymmetric caught quite a few people’s eye. Beautifully balanced while appearing to be the racy type. Richard Migliore was taken by him as well. With a better start next time the winner’s circle wouldn’t surprise.
A half-brother to CODE OF HONOR debuts in Thursday’s 6th at Belmont. Sidekick (by HONOR CODE) is a Farish homebred trained by Shug McGaughey. I have a feeling he’ll be the ML favorite. 🙂
Johnny V. has the ride, which is a good endorsement.
Paris Lights, a full-brother to St Mark’s Basilica, debuts at the Curragh on Sunday. Jessica Harrington is the trainer. Did you watch Saturday’s Grade 1 Cheveley Park Stakes, Tenebrism (Caravaggio) was so impressive. Inexperienced, but she flew past them. Not really sleepers. Ha ha
Hi David,
Watched Paris Lights’ race this morning. Liked him in motion down the stretch. Think he’ll be fine.
Another topic- Google -Ribot The Legend (parts one and two). Super documentary on the great horse. Confirmed what I felt about him. What a look- so much my type. What a racehorse!
Hi sceptre, I’m just about to watch Ribot: Parts 1 & 2 for a second time, with a cup of tea. Thanks again for letting me know. Interesting call with Chrono Genesis for the Arc, I like Tarnawa as well but the draw can destroy the chances of half the field. Wait and see. Good luck, though.
Paris Lights is definitely by Siyouni, I’m glad you liked him the next race should be more forthcoming though.
Sorry. Had confused him with Cougar when reviewing the results, not the race, itself.
Hard to believe that it’s been 50 years since I witnessed Mill Reef’s Arc at Longchamp during my brief visit to Paris. I knew he was great, then, but the years since have enhanced my regard for him.
Those dominant champions of that era have/had an extraordinary aura about them. Even as a child you sensed you were in the presence of something special. Reverend.
BTW: Paris Lights is a half-brother (he’s be Deep Impact).
Chrono Genesis for the Arc win. She’s absolutely top drawer, and the Euros are overrated.
sceptre, I’ve been meaning to thank you for your reference to Ribot: Parts 1 & 2. The docs were well done and increased my admiration of this great racehorse and sire. Appreciate your mentioning it.
I also like Chrono Genesis in the Arc as well as Hurricane Lane. I’ll use them both in an exacta box. The expected soft going shouldn’t be a problem for either of them.
Bon chance!
I did not, but I will get caught up at the end of this week. I see your prediction about St Mark’s Basilica has… born fruit. I will eagerly await his produce.
It’s too early to say for sure, but a prediction of mine is in the budding stages. Have a look at the pedigree of So It Would Seem. xbtv has a video of her working for Phil D’Amato.
Good luck with her. With that pedigree, I’m a little surprised So It Would Seem hasn’t started already.
So It Would Seem is scheduled to debut in a couple days. She looked ready to munch on her rivals out of the gate in that video. She and her workout partners in the video all started training in July, for whatever reason, and moved from Los Al last week, so seems likely they were aimed at debuting when Santa Anita opened. California racing opportunities seem like they are often a limiting factor too.
Tenebrism looked a bit green, as you say, but she inhaled that field. Once she settled into her stride, she looked better than out of the gate. Doing what she did going up an incline makes it even more impressive. I don’t have enough knowledge of the Euro courses. Yet.
Sidekick was a stewards’ scratch. Expect it was something like his microchip malfunctioned and he’ll be entered again soon, but how frustrating for the connections.
Nest—a filly….looked pretty green and pretty good winning her debut today at Belmont. Ducked in changing leads….won with Irad just sitting on her, a full to Idol, who can run all day….
She was VERY impressive, going 8.5f in her debut. I didn’t know she was a full sister to Idol. Wow! There was a nice filly at Gulfstream winning the 8.5f My Dear Girl Stakes. I’ve been following Outfoxed since she debuted in July at Saratoga for Bill Mott and was third to Echo Zulu. Then she romped by 13 lengths in the 7f Susan’s Girl at GP. Today she toyed with the field and won by 9. On to the BC!
BH calls her a half— she’s a full, to Idol….I call BS on BH!
Shocking!
RE those Florida stallion series winners—there have been MANY very impressive horses coming out of those races, for whatever reason have just not done much in the BCup…
There were a few who won BC races, but not recently. I think at least a half dozen FSS winners went on to win Eclipse awards.
I think that one thing about horses coming out of Florida – Gulfstream in particular – is that the track is so hard and fast compared to others, especially the Breeders Cup tracks, that Florida horses lack the type and depth of conditioning on the deeper surfaces that they would need to repeat their performances elsewhere.
Regarding the possibility of Commandperformance jumping right into allowance or stakes company: Other than American Pharoah, has a future Derby winner in the past 50 years broken his/her maiden in a non-maiden race?
For that matter….has any other past 50 years future Derby winner broke their maiden in a Gr 1?
Are you trying to trick me, Matthew? 😉 Races weren’t graded 50 years ago. You have to get up pretty early in the morning to fool me. Around 7 am, I’d guess.
But seriously….Brokers Tip and Sir Barton broke their maidens in the Kentucky Derby.
I think Pharoah broke his maiden in the Dmr Futurity…
Yes indeed. It followed a 5th-place finish in his MSW debut.
Hey Eddie … I am betting few bucks to win and place on Eddie the Great at Belmont 9th just because he is named after you.
Should be at least 5 to 1 against the odds on favorite Happy Happy B …
Thanks, Nelson! I need all the help I can get since the Saratoga meet ended. 🙁
I think he needed the race. 😉
BY EXTENSION –
It appears Speaker’s Corner is getting a lot of attention and might just leave the gates at a very short price. Whilst I wouldn’t be surprised if he somehow finishes ahead of Midnight Bourbon and Hot Rod Charlie. His likely starting price is pushing me in another direction.
Brad Cox is having a great year. He will be represented in the PA Derby by Fulsome. The colt’s PPs reflects defeat of two opponents that contested the 2021 Kentucky Derby i.e., O Besos and Helium. What’s the big deal? Both finished amongst the also ran. That’s correct! But it is important to focus on where both finished and the margins.
O Besos finished 5th by 5 1/2L. That would place him ahead of Midnight Bourbon and 3 1/2 behind Essential Quality and Hot Rod Charlie. Helium finished 7th by 10 1/2L. That would place his 2 1/4L behind Midnight Bourbon who finished 6th. Given the exploits of Essential Quality, Hot Rod Charlie and Midnight Bourbon since the KD. There is no way Fulsome should have defeated O Besos and Helium. In fact Fulsome allowed O’ Besos 2lbs in the Matt Winn.
Some further information that some might find insignificant. Fulsome recorded his 2 graded stakes wins without Lasix and was assigned his highest Equibase figures. Of his 9 starts 6 were with Lasix. There will be no Lasix in the PA Derby. Fulsome last 5 starts have been at different tracks i.e., Kee, OP,CD, IND and PRX. He was defeated once during this series of races when he finished a dull 3rd in the Indiana Derby.
Fulsome won his only start at Parx on a newly resurfaced dirt course. This will the first time in 6 starts that he will make 2 starts at the same location. Does he have a surface advantage over most in the field? Hard to assert. But it certainly helps.
From a pedigree perspective his sire Into Mischief is one the hottest sire in the USA. His dam sire Distorted Humor is dam sire of Arrogate and likely BCC starter Art Collector. Fulsome’s dam Flourish is a grand daughter Nijinsky Star who is a daughter of the 1970 British TC winner Nijinsky and out of the great race mare Christ Evert.
This colt has the pedigree and his 5 victories make him the winningest in the field. His ML of 12/1 might just be a lot longer at post time. He has tactical speed and an explosive stretch run. I have reported, you are left to decide.
Correction.
Helium finished 8th by 10 1/2L. That would place his 2 1/4L behind Midnight Bourbon and Keepmeinmind who finished 6th & 7th.ly
Cox has He’smyhoneybadger at 6-1 today, in the $275k non-graded Harrods Creek, at Churchill….recently moved to Turfway, and Turfwau workers have been winning races at other tracks, I have noticed…
Nice run after a bad start finishing in the middle of a longshot tri.
Hey Steve
My main focus on the 2 yr. old KD hopefuls are the colts, with little or no attention paid to the 2 yr. old fillies. However, I was awe struck by Wild Beauty winning the one mile G1 Natalma Stakes, in 1:35.08. By Frankel (undefeated in 14 starts) out of a Pivotal mare, she hit the gate at the start, was pinballed between two runners, and closed from 10th at the 1/4 pole to win going away by 2 1/4. If her connections enter her in the BC Juvenile Fillies Turf, she’ll probably go off as one of the favorites.
It’s be quite while since we’ve seen a filly in the KD, but you never know, Wild Beauty could turn out to be a very special filly.
Wild Beauty was ultra impressive. Frankel’s 2018 crop is launching into the category of an ultra exceptional sire.
Ooh. A new Haskin series. Thank you so much Steve. Much appreciated source of horse racing knowledge. I will keep my eye on Commandperformance.
Can extrapolation be worthwhile in the handicapping of the chances of a lightly raced entrant in the PA Derby against its more season opponents?
Th 2021 renewal of the e PA Derby is widely regarded as a race between Midnight Bourbon and Hit Rod Charlie with the withdrawal of Medina Spirit.. But from a value perspective the returns on either isn’t for the poor. A group that I head.
Midnight Bourbon defeated the following opponents by 5 1/2L when he broke his maiden in his 2nd start – Aktulgali, Wick, & Good First. Have any of the 3 fellow board makers featured prominently since? I cannot recall seeing any of 3 in any major race for 3YO.
Hot Rod Charlie defeated the following opponents by 1//2L when he broke his maiden in his 4th start – Parnelli, Bolu, Scary Larry. Have any of the fellow board makers featured prominently since? Parnelli was 3rd in the Sham, 5th in the Bob Lewis, 6th in SA Derby & 3rd in the CA Derby. The other 2 board makers have been MIA.
Speaker’s Corner defeat the following opponents when he broke his maiden in his 2nd start –
Caddo River – 1st Smarty Jones; 2nd AK Derby G1
Greatest Honor, -1st Holy Bull G3,1st FOYG2; 3rd FL DerbyG1
Miles D – 2nd Curlin Stakes (Listed) 3rd Travers G1
Borbonic – 1st Wood G2; 3rd In W V Derby G3
Original – 3rd Kitten’s Joy G3; 3rd Woodhaven (Black Type); 1st Manila (listed)
Midnight Bourbon and Hit Rod Charlie defeated a modest group when each broke their maiden. Both have emerged as top 5 in the division. Speaker’s Corner defeated a group from which graded, listed and black type stakes winners have emerged. Some have ben been top 3 finishers in G1 Stakes. One top 3 finishers is Miles D who in only his 4th start and 3rd in 10 months, finished only 5 1/2L behind Essential Quality and Midnight Bourbon in the Travers. .
So can be extrapolated from all the above? Speaker’s corner whilst breaking his maiden defeated a group from which any one of five appears to be better than the collective two groups defeated by Midnight Bourbon and Hit Rod Charlie. If Midnight Bourbon and Hit Rod Charlie have emerged as top 5 colts, Speaker’s Corner should possess either equal or more ability than both.
The conservative Bill Mott hasn’t entered Speaker’s Corner in the PA Derby as race filler. Just as Chad Brown didn’t enter Miles D as a filler in the Travers.
Sometimes even the best extrapolations do not yield the desired results. But I am of the opinion his one has a solid foundation. But as usual reality could prove me wrong.
This blog launces a series in which supporters are invited to highlight and/or submit under the radar 2YO as likely KD prospects. I request that I not be admonished for a bit of digression.
Last weekend the European Charlie Appleby dispatched 5 members of his team to contest 5 stakes between the USA and Canada. Four members of his contingent won and the other a finished a respectable 4th which derailed by Pick 5. Two of Appleby’s 4 wins were achieved in 2YO stakes. Interestingly, both 2YOs were tardy at the start surrendering ground to their opponents. Both emerged open lengths winners whilst being eased before the line.
After witnessing the performances of the 2 European bred and based 2YOs. I started to wonder if the Europeans conducted their racing primarily on dirt. Would they dominate their American counterparts in major dirt races on American soil?
Is this really worthwhile to ponder? I think yes!
The performances of Giants Causeway, Sakhee, Declaration of War in the Breeder Cup Classic and Johannesburg & Vale Of York in the Breeders Cup Juvenile, should give credence to any such pondering. The aforementioned horses all made their dirt debut in the two cited BC races. With Vale Of Your being the exception as his race was on All Weather. It wouldn’t be unreasonable to conclude they were all at a surface disadvantage.
Some of the above horses were bred in America. They were purchased and taken to Europe and did their racing on turf. It should be noted that the race fay medication Lasix is not allowed. European racing. They were no reports that the American bred horse we bleeders.
Giants Causeway, Sakhee and Declaration of War suffered narrow defeats in the BCC. Sahkee was 3 seeks removed from winning the Arc. In wining the Breeder Cup Juvenile, Johannesburg & Vale Of York defeated two undefeated American based colts who were by far the best in their division. The undefeated Officer was never off the bridle in any of his 5 wins. Looking at Lucky was likewise undefeated in 4 starts. But an opponent bred in the US and another bred in Ireland, ensure that both top American based colts exited the BCJ with
their undefeated records didn’t remain intact
The breeding shed in América is being flooded with stallion prospects that have made 5 to 6. Who knows what kind of performance enhancers they raced on. The over breeding of stallions is adversely affecting the gene pool. It only a matter of time when the Europeans will figure out how breed dirt horses and then the American Breeding industry will realize just how much trouble the industry is in.
I think it was Europe which started the early retirement trend….
A BIT of digression? LOL. Stay tuned for my historical essay on the double-frying of potatoes.
lol
Can’t wait, EddieF! Knowing the history will make my own experience of acquiring, preparing, deep-frying, breeding and burial of pot8os so much more meaningful. Though I am sure some will be horrified by the nasty, brutish and short lives of the pot8os in my kitchen.
Potatoes have long decried the Hobbsian treatment they receive in your kitchen and others!
It must be hard to cook if you anthropomorphize your vegetables.
I decided against it because I don’t want to offend the entire population of Belgium.
Hilarious post. Especially spelling potatoes after the famous son of Eclipse. I’ve always loved his name, along with Bloody Buttocks et al.
LOL. I was wondering why perimeister spelled it that way. They were WAY ahead of their time.
I think the original (mis)spelling was Potoooooooos. Pedigree query spells it Pot8os.
Oh. I wonder how they pronounced it way back then.
Google it. 🙂
I prefer to Bing it.
OK. I found an audio clip of the owner, Richard Grosvenor, talking about the horse. The sound quality is awful. Can’t make out the pronunciation.
Yes, that was back in the days of QuickTime -.00000000000000004. Even before Al Gore invented the Internet. But the kids could still work the cell phones better than the grown-ups. A human universal.
LOL! History is so much fun.
I won’t get “twice cooked chicken” at a Chinese restaurant, if they can’t get it right the FIRST time, fagettaboutit!
LOL. So I guess you won’t be trying thrice-cooked chicken.
Eddie, you’re incorrigible! That said, I yearn to learn more about the double-frying of potatoes. Can’t wait!
I found out there are thousands of YouTube videos that describe it far better than I could.
Steve, it may interest you to know that since 1983, nine future Kentucky Derby winners finished 2nd in their debuts. What may surprise you is that ALL of them won their next race — and won as heavy favorites. Swale, Sunday Silence, Lil E. Tee, Silver Charm, Fusaichi Pegasus, Street Sense, Super Saver, Animal Kingdom, and California Chrome. We shall see if Commandperformance (or The Institute 🙂 ) does the same.
That doesnt surprise me. I would imagine that many horses who finished 2nd in their debut won their next start and were favored. Many times a runner-up will come back and face mostly first time starters and the public will make them the favorite.
Maybe someone out there has the stats on the second career race after a debut second, in particular in 2yo MSWs. My guess is that the percentage of wins may not even be 50 — certainly not 100%. Perhaps the favoritism in the second start should be expected, but maybe not as extreme as the above 9 winners. All were odds-on in the 2nd start, except for Chrome who was 6-5.
I was told many years ago…home breds aren’t cranked up for their first start like auction bought horses are—as a rule….
Don’t Wait Up the winner of the MSW in which Commandperformance finished 2nd, also finished 2nd on debut. His victory over Commandperformance was his 2nd and he won as the heavy favorite. He therefore fits intp the historic trend highlighted.
Yes he does!
Steve, I look forward to following Commandperformance. The beauty of the sport can come at you from different angles and it’s not always about the horse that’s running. Now that we know Smitten, the next step definitely IS about the horse that’s running. I was a really big fan of Union Rags and felt he was the best horse of that generation but didn’t get very good rides, especially in the Derby. Hopefully, Commandperformance will will carry the torch further for his daddy. Great story as always! Great idea for series!
Thanks very much, Tex. Glad people seem to like it. Union Rags was spectacular to look at. I visited him at Fair Hill and was blown away.
Great article Mr. Haskin! Regarding Union Rags,always disappointed he didn’t race at four.
Thanks, Mike. He would have been a terrific 4yo
I was blown away by Animal Kingdom, not as such looking spectacular, but he had class oozing out of his pores. I just remember feeling, “Wow!”
Commandperformance was assigned first billing for this series. He finished 2nd on debut. There were some reservations selecting him as an under radar potential KD Prospect. This understandable as he is from the high powered barn of Todd Pletcher. If he had won, would he have been viewed as being under the radar? Highly unlikely!
For the purpose of this series. Are winners viewed to be less likely to be under the under the radar as potential KD Prospects? Well, not all winners are alike.
Mine That Bird broke his maiden in a maiden claimer. He was assigned an Equibase figure of 83. Was MTB consider under the radar after his win? A maiden winner on the All Weather surface at Woodbine and who was purchased for $9,200, wouldn’t have been associated with radar in the same sentence. He won the KD at 50/1
If we can forget the possible involvement of PEDs.. Maximum Security won on debut in a maiden claimer. He was assigned an Equibase figure of 93. A maiden claiming 2YO winner, trained by J Servis and by New Year Day, would certainly be under the radar. He won the KD.
Giacomo broke his maiden 2nd time out in a MSW. He was assigned an Equibase figure of 98. Now, that’s an excellent figure for a MSW winner over 8 1/2F. Was Giacomo view as a potential KD winner? No! He was under the radar throughout the KD preps. He won the KD at 50/1.
In this series greater focus shouldn’t be on non-winner. Some winners are under the radar just as much as non-winners. None of the above horses were viewed as likely KD prospects after their first win. In fact, Mine That Bird enraged as the Canadian Champion 2YO and was still under the radar heading into the KD. His KD win induced a deafening silence at CD.
Winners that are dismissed by the public are not different from appealing non-winners.
Thumbs down.
His post was a waste of time because I will have under the radar maiden winners. Right now I’m just leaning toward maidens but never said it will only horses who havent won. In fact. one of those sleepers I have was third in the Hopeful Stakes, Kevin’s Folly. No one knows much about him and he was well beaten but he looks like a Derby horse to me.
Kevin’s Folly was my paddock pick for the Hopeful… he looks amazing. We only need to see his physique to gather he is a Derby horse indeed. Looking forward to your Sleepers in the coming weeks.
Impressive how Distorted Humor is still throwing excellent runners after 20 crops and 28 years of age.
Its amazing having a resurgence at this age. The first time I went to WinStar Farm he and Tiznow were the only two stallions. I loved Kevin’s folly’s maiden win…so professional. This horse is a pro
Tiznow going on 25…..
Agreed Eddie.
Excellent feature, Steve. I look forward to future installments, so we not only know which potential sleepers to keep an eye on for next year’s Derby trail, but learn their fascinating backstories as well. Great idea.
Thank you Amy. Glad you enjoyed it.
About Medina Spirit……..
I have been telling you……he IDLES…..does not want to pull away……he never looks great in works…..i still don’t understand why they go to lead…..these horses do better with a target…….
I don’t think we know how good he is yet….he is not putting full effort………yes he has been winning on lead, because he has seen the other horses………one day, he will face a horse that quits……he is vulnerable of getting nailed late…
“these horses do better with a target”
Medina Spirit had a target in the San Felipe and S A Derby. He was defeated by 8L and 4 1/4L respectively. Was his targets in the aforementioned races out of reach?
“I don’t think we know how good he is yet”
Is the full potential known for all comprising in this 3YO crop?
Medina Spirit has contested 7 stakes to date. He won 3 and was defeated by combined 18 1/2L in 4. How many races does it required before a reasonably accurate assessment can be made of a horse’s potential?
” he has been winning on lead, because he has seen the other horses”
You really need to take some time and revisit your statement above. You are likely to realize that you are suggesting that Medina Spirit experiences blindness when he not on the lead. Surely that was not your intent. But one never knowns with your wild and incomprehensible assertions.
Thumbs up.
You quit school in grade school…….i own horses for a living…….be quiet…….put that hat back on…….
Give me a break!
EVERYTHING I SAID IS TRUE………i will lose my horse next week …..3-5 expected odds…hope it wins…….then plan on claiming new one the next day……
I’ve noticed a lot of horses idle when they pull even, they don’t want to pass, almost seems like they want to stay even, in a pack. Idling on the lead is less common and the jockey can correct that, they have a harder time getting them to pass when they want to stay in the pack.
There’s a Cali horse named Farquar…has talent but when he makes the lead he pulls himself up—Ferdinand was like that, Shoe needed to time his move, which he did, in the ’87 Classic—barely! They’re bred to race but are herd animals….
Horses idle when they can’t see the others………they get scared……i would call the ones YOU brought up as HANGERS…..it isn’t the same thing really
As if the story of Smitten didnt have a sad enough ending, I spoke to Jim Herbener on several occasions for the story and about having to put Smitten down and putting Commandperformance on a nursemare. The day after I spoke to him last he passed away. Very sad.
So sad. Here is hoping Commandperformance can put a bit of sunshine into this story.
Hola Steve ! Great initiative to keep your followers engaged in periodic conversations about early Derby prospects.
Your observations about Commandperformance’s debut are spot on. He is certainly primed to win next out and from there he will very likely be one of Pletcher’s best cards in the Derby trail… the story about Smitten just adds another layer of allure.
The 220K they paid for Commandperformance looks like a big bargain already.
You have said it all about Commandperformance’s pedigree and the only comment I have is that Tapit not only has emerged as a great sire of sires but he is also giving sings of becoming a prolific broodmare sire as well.
Talking about sleepers, I like Mac’s Time’s 7 furlong win at Ellis 16 days ago. The son of Not this Time out of Free Money by Street Sense overcame a slow start to win with a display of great tenacity. You ought to like how he withstood a sturdy pressure every meter of the race and still being able to fend off all challengers in the last yard.
Along with Derby victor Street Sense, the the great A.P. Indy, Seeking the Gold and also (coincidentally) Fit to Fight in his female side provide him with license to excel at 1 ¼ mile.
I admire the perseverance of the Albaugh Family and Dale Romans in pursuing Derby glory. Their first shot was in 2012 with Cozetti; but the son of Cozzene did not pass the Arkansas Derby test.
Then came Brody’s Cause (7th in the Derby) and Unbridled Outlaw in 2016 and J Boys Echo who was 15th in 2017 Derby. The gifted Not This Time was perhaps their most promising Derby horse ever but had to be retired after his second place in the 2016 BC Juvenile.
Their hopes were high with Free Drop Billy in 2018 but the son of Union Rags could not replicate his 2-year-old success. He finished 16th in the Derby.
A big prospect was no other than Dennis’ Moment who turned to be one of the greatest anticlimaxes a horseman can experience.
This year Albaugh’s Sitting on Go has been a disappointment after his Iroquois win.
The Albaugh Family is always procuring pedigrees for the Classic distances and Mac’s Time fits the bill. I would like to see their perseverance being answered next year… will Mac’s Time be Romans time?
“A winner is just a loser who tried one more time”
George M. Moore Jr
Wonderful post on the Derby quest of the Albaughs and Dale Romans, Nelson. I’ll definitely check out Mac’s Time and wish him good luck!
Thanks Ms BlackType !
Dale Romans’ stats show that he will likely have a horse in the Derby next year but winning it is a very different challenge though.
Anyways, as Steve said, there is no feeling better than identifying the talent of young unproven horses early and follow them in their quest for glory…!
Romans is not on a promising Derby curve!
It is a good thing he is not … otherwise he will be banned for winning too much under suspicion of malpractice.
I liked Mac’s Time’s race, but I’m looking beyond winners right now and my next sleeper could very well be a horse from that race who hasnt even finished in the money yet. Now that is what I call a sleeper. Stay tuned on that one.
Thanks for the reply Steve… good to land on the definition to follow here.
I was looking for any young horse who has not raced more than two times at maiden levels and has not competed in any graded race.
I then should narrow it to non winners for the time being …
Nelson, I knew you’d figure it out eventually. 😉 I’m going out on a limb to say that the 2022 Derby winner will not debut until November 1 at the soonest.
You may be right. I will put my bet on September or October latest.
That is the motivation of this forum … pinpointing Derby material rather early and relying on many watching eyes is a captivating exercise indeed!
Nelson, for a second I thought you were quoting the brilliant Australian jockey, George Moore. One of the most gifted jockeys I’ve seen and, on retirement, went on to be an ace trainer with numerous premierships. Highly intelligent as well.
Hi Davids… Politicians could be intelligent as well…lol
Did you see George Moore in person riding in the 60’s or as a trainer in the 80’s?
No, in person during 1970, 1971 in Australia. He was just as brilliant in his twilight years as a jockey. Around the tracks, everyone spoke about him in reverential terms. His training dominance was in Hong Kong.
Nelson, I laughed out loud reading that “Politicians could be intelligent.” Most of my parents friends were either diplomats, politicians, or those interconnected in the oil industry. Ruthless and disingenuous I’d put above intelligence. Ha ha
Hey Nelson!
Being a longshot hunter I was on the hunt again in the Iroquois. I must admit some of the entrants were new to me and consequently extensive research of their PPs was in order. Whilst reviewing the PPs of Tough To Tame, I was force to make him my longshot pick but not based exclusively on his PPs and pedigree, but rather his eye catching physical appearance .
Many would consider me crazy to find favor in a colt sired by Speightster out of a Tiger Ridge mare. Further, he is trained by Christopher Davis and his resume reflected two 5F starts on the All Weather surface at Arlington Park and a 5 1/2F
start at Indiana Grand. To add to my craziness Tough To Tame was defeated by 12 1/2L on debut and broke his maiden by 1/2L. He was much better the 2nd time winning over 5 1/2F by3 1/2L.
A colt with a modest resume reflecting 3 starts with none beyond 5 1/2F, had to be considered misplaced in the 8 1/2F Iroquois. But he made such an exceptional appearance and displayed great athleticisms. I had to dive further into his pedigree.
His sire Speightster who was trained by Bill Mott won his first 3 starts in very fast times, including the G3 Dwyer. But was unplaced in his 2nd stakes appearance which proved to be his last. He was assigned Equibase figures of 100,102 & 107 for his first 3 start. A lightly raced stallion with those kind of speed figures fits perfectly into my love boat. His dam was modest with 16 start with 2 wins.
Tough To Tame’s pedigree is unfashionable but his physical appearance reflect everything race horse. I could hardly find a fault. He ran to his looks and finished a determined 2nd. He would have won if not for the fact that he refused to rate kindly for his rider on the back stretch. The brakes had to be applied several times be his rider. The colt was very ranked and refused to yield to it rider commands. I concluded he would have nothing left for the stretch. But alas, he was vey resolute in the stretch was catching the eventual winner when the winning post intervened.
Tough To Tame is no ordinary colt. He is all race horse. His modest pedigree and relatively unknown trainer, suggest, that despite his Iroquois effort he is under the radar. But I consider him one to follow.
I bet Tough to Tame across the board, and during the race I thought he had zero chance, he was fighting the rider hard for at least 1/2 mile–then he keeps coming–time wasn’t fast, but I thought he was the standout from the race…also it would be great for an Arlington horse to win the Derby!
but the race was slow……….
It was, I know…..the filly went 1 1/5 seconds faster….still….when a horse is that rank and fights that hard….they usually pack it in….he might improve a bundle…
If its true, that Medina is staying home….Hot Rod looks tough to beat on Sat…
Was told by an old clocker friend Medina did not look great in his final work, and Hot Rod looked awesome….
Baffert said he didnt like the post
Hes a lousy poker player!
We’ll see….maybe wants another work, then Awesome Again…..but the horse looked great at Del Mar, he likes Del Mar…..talked again to my friend, he was there said Ax Man toyed with Medina….
Private Mission, too. Strange.
Steve What a great idea. This what it’s all about. Finding that Derby winner, spotting him or her and watching a dream come true. This is a Handicappers WHERE”S WALDO and I love it! Thank you made my day.
I appreciate it Derek. Thank you
I, too, was impressed with Command Performance in that MSW race!! However, since I own the dam of Don’t Wait Up, he is definitely my pick for an “under the radar” Derby horse! He was going at a blistering pace on a muddy track and still finished the race under a hand ride with plenty left in the tank!
Having a bias is a disqualifying factor as it impedes objectivity. In all seriousness, it appears you own a quality mare. May she continue to produce quality foals.
You should look at your results……….you just respond to anyone that likes a horse……..and rain on their parade……….yet you can’t pick winners………you never seem to think that matters
Thats great. Good luck with him.
Very nice, Diane. Best of luck as you follow DWU’s career. He did run a great race. So he was purchased for $200k after a stud fee for Upstart at $10k. That’s usually a good sign. He ran well in his debut and next out…BINGO. About half of the win pool was on the other 8 runners — all of them first-time starters.
What a great theme to take up! Thank you for giving us Smitten’s story, Steve. Commandperformance had caught my eye some time ago too, and knowing about Smitten will greatly enrich my following of the colt. Your words also are a fine contribution to the memorializing of Jim Herbener, R.I.P.
I’m shocked. I spoke to him a few days ago. He sounded great.
It’s particularly sad for those left behind, for someone to be taken suddenly and without warning. I suppose it’s possible that death was the first sign of heart disease, in his case as in the cases of so many others.
Hi Steve
He’s Our Maker, by Candy Ride, is a full brother to Rock Your World. He’s yet to record an official workout, but could be close.
I’m not sure what the hold up is, but he could make some noise later on this year.
BTW, I haven’t lost hope in RYW, he was only 1 1/4 lengths behind Medina Spirit in the Shared Belief Stakes. He recorded a 5 furlong bullet work in 59.40 (1/56) on 9-18, at Santa Anita.
I was told theyre going back to turf. I would give him another shot on dirt.
I agree, but based on his impressive success on turf, I don’t blame the connections.
Speaking of connections, is there any chance you could contact the McAnnallys and find out what’s up with He’s Our Maker?
Thanks Steve.
I agree. At least he showed some life in the last race. A return to turf is no guarantee either. RYW won a nongraded turf stakes from which no opponent has since done anything worthy on the grass. His big dirt win was a G1 in which the second horse won the Derby.
I thought they were pointing to the Awesome Again, they have those two 9 furlong turf stakes for three year olds, but the first one isn’t until the Breeders Cup weekend….
It’s possible Rock Your World is a horse for the Santa Anita dirt, and not otherwise.
Hi Bill,
From a historic perspective a mares rarely produces to class progenies in consecutive folding. There is a tendency to breed mares after their folding heat. I am by no means an expert regarding breeding. However, the stress placed on mares to nurse folds and the burden of dealing with a pregnancy simultaneously, must have a negative impact of the quality of the pending foal.
My theory could be totally wrong.
EDITED:
Hi Bill,
From a historic perspective mares rarely produce top class progenies in consecutive years. There is a tendency to breed mares in their heat following foaling i.e., folding heat. I am by no means an expert regarding breeding. However, the stress placed on mares to nurse foals along with the simultaneous burden of pregnancy, must have a negative impact of the quality of the follow up foal.
My theory could be totally wrong.
Could it be said that mares rarely produce top-class progeny in ANY year?
You don’t understand
Hey Coldfacts
That’s an interesting perspective on mares nursing while pregnant. I’d be interested to know what a top breeder has to say on this subject.
Good luck down the road Facts.
The winner of Command Performance’s 1st race was the horse that caused the chain reaction out of the starting gate. There was an “inquiry” by the stewards, but, they let the result stand. It happens all over the country. For some reason, interference out of the starting gate is treated completely different than interference in the stretch. I made a note at the time and Command Performance is one of my Derby Hopefuls.
Great. They also have a tendency to ignore interference in 2yo maiden races
“Medina ain’t no easy pickens”
Awesome Again – won by 1 1/4L
Preakness – defeated by 5 1/2L
Kentucky Derby – won by 1/2L
S A Derby – defeated by 4 1/4
San Felipe – Defeated by 8L
Bob Lewis – Won by a NK
Sham – defeated by 3/4L
Medina Spirits stakes resume is listed above. The colt has won 3 times by a combined margin of 1 3/4L & a NK. He has been defeated 4 times by a combined margin of 18 1/2L.
Does the idiom ‘no easy pickens’ really applies to a colt with such a resume? By every objective measure the answers has to be a resounding – No!
I have seen in other forums Median Spirit being describe as this tough and unyielding colt when he assumes the lead he craves. He assumed the lead in the Preakness and was blown off the track by 5 1/2L Where was the toughness and tenacity that many have asserted as being his MO? Some folks have suggest that if he win his next two starts he has shot of being champion 3YO. Could it be effects of COVID that is influencing these kinds of assessments?
The truth be told MS is a nice colt but nothing special. A colt that is classified a not being easy picking does get beaten by a combined 18 1/2L in 4 races. A colt that has been seen hanging on for dear life in 2 of its 3 win, is not exhibiting tenacity but rather an inability to effectively separate from opponents with any semblance of authority.
What exactly is purpose of assigning idioms to a colt that the cold facts in no objective way support?
I would appreciate being enlightened as to what exactly I am missing regarding Medina Spirit. There has to be something significant that lies outside his PPs..
Don’t ask to be enlightened when you dont want to be. I wouldnt dare ruin your negative approach to everything. But in the Preakness he was under pressure every step of the way through fractions of :46 and change and 1:10 and change and still hung in there for second in one of the fastest Preaknesses ever run. There, consider yourself enlightened as much as it upsets you. Oh, he couldnt keep up with stablemate Life is Good, one of the most talented horses in the country who was on an uncontested lead. Horrible!!!. He may not be the most talented 3yo, and I dont like his post, but to knock (your favorite word) his courage is, well, you.
And that has nothing to do with this column. Dont pile your trash where it doesnt belong unless you have something constructive to say.
The Preakness was 14 days after his big run in Louisville—criticism for his loss, but no hats off for his tough wins, like the Lewis— taking all the early pressure and holding off the closers, his Derby, where he took challenges from several good horses and held sway…his Del Mar racehe turned back Rock— and it looked like he had more in the tank …no easy pickens, if Medina is in front— Preakness aside, face it if he doesn’t win the Derby he’s probably not IN the Preakness….but CF knows that!
Bravo!
Bravissimo!
It’s quite annoying when people change the narrative to promote their own agenda. Maybe Coldfacts moniker should be CLOSEDFACTS.
Good luck with him, Steve. I think your concept has a lot of appeal, especially for those quite new to the sport. I’m looking forward to the emergence of Eclipse et al’s, Capensis (Tapit – Tara’s Tango by Unbridled’s Song). A stunning individual at the 2020 Keeneland September Sales.
Following the 1st-Crop Sires list is enthralling as well watching how they impact, or don’t impact, on the future of racing. I’m looking forward to your next installment.
I’ve made a note to follow what happens with the Kosmos’ Buddy/Justify filly. I’m sure you’re right, that with the right sire line (that can improve her legs – and you know who I am looking at – she may prove to have far greater value as a broodmare than as a racer.) I definitely need to learn more about the female families and re-organize my approach, in which what has been catching my eye is what happens on a track, to allow for more eye catching to occur at the sales. Need more time, but I am working on it. I was reading, a couple of weeks ago, about the mitochondrial dna haplotype research and its female family pedigree implications. Complications!
Snap! I read about this a few years back now: “Chromosomal-Eve was a woman that lived about 200,000 years ago in Africa from whom every woman on the planet can trace their roots. As the people started to move around in the early era of men (and women, obviously), the mitochondrial DNA started to branch out from Eve’s mtDNA. We call these branches haplogroups.”
Those breeding pedigree animals horses, dogs, cats, cattle etc no doubt were/are consciously or subconsciously somewhat influenced in selecting matings by the above. That’s clumsily written but I’m sure you get my drift.
Did you notice further back in Kosmos Buddy’s tail-female line – Warmed Bottom, by Hitting Away out of Tanned. The breeders obviously had a sense of humor.
It’s one of the great vicarious thrills of reading pedigrees, the choices of Namers past. Was just giggling again over Pot8os, the other day. Pot8o, potahto, tom8o, tomahto.
When I was first looking at Knicks Go’s pedigree a year or so ago, what first struck my novice eye was the heart and durability apparent in thr female lines on his distaff side. They may not have been grade one winners, but they ran. A lot.
The history of the ideas of a bloodline and selective breeding I am sure are both very old and fascinating, though I only have the vaguest idea of their genesis. Let’s sit on the ground and tell sad stories of the death of kings. Do you know the works of Owen Barfield?
Owen Barfield, “Romanticism Comes of Age,” I’ve read and only vaguely his connection to “Anthroposophy” which has its roots in German idealist philosophy, mystical philosophies, and in relation to German Romanticism = racial evolution, Kandinsky et al. German Romanticism, Art and Architecture from 1870 – 1939 was part of a thesis.
I read Tolkien, Eliot, C.S. Lewis as a youth which were influenced by Barfield.
I’m about ready to re-read Romanticism Comes of Age, which I like to do with my personal philosophical foundational documents every few years, much like I think it’s valuable to re-read the Declaration of Independence and USConstitution with some regularity. Though it will be a few months before I actually am able to do it. Of the Inklings, speaking of humorous namings, I’m most steeped in Tolkien and Barfield, to the latter of whose work I was introduced when I was not yet old enough to drink, and some of which was a part of my professional life for many years. I’ve not studied Anthroposophy as such, but have always sought to apply the underlying metaphysic in daily life. I remember your mentioning the thesis, maybe 2 years ago? Somehow, I think that was a part of our discussion about bacon, of the pork belly variety, though Bacon would be a pertinent mention in philosophical connection too.
I”m not sure how Bacon would reconcile his natural philosophy with the modern world.
I’m not sure if “reconcile” is what Bacon would attempt. He was pretty committed to a dualism which, I think, precludes a correct metaphysic.
I mention Bacon as pertinent to the discussion more in the manner of honoring a philosophy in the breach, not in the observance. We have to have counter-examples, if we are to maintain the meaning of anything. Grin.
My head hurts. One thing is certain, you’d never see a dialogue like this on HRN. Well, unless the two of you were commenting on HRN. Never mind.
On HRN we’d be accused of being the same person.
perimeister says: “On HRN we’d be accused of being the same person.”
Only if you were on one of the two Baffert extremes. 🙂
You would be surprised. I have been accused of being a shill identity, invented by Betsy to agree with her and upvote her posts about Honor Code.
I do seem to recall that horrific accusation. Sad.
I was thinking of his dualism and perhaps his ‘Weltanschauung’(sic) with the new science of today and the belief of religious influence of his time. Empiricism disproves the latter?
We’re going to make EddieF’s head explode. Empiricism is generally used to label a theory of knowledge. The problem of most thinkers, particularly Anglo-American, at least prior to the relatively recent developments in quantum physics (Bohr, not Einstein, had it right), is that they operated with an incorrect epistemology, more usefully thought of as a theory of truth. Given a correct epistemology, or theory of truth, we can be realists. Realism is the simpler metaphysic, but it must accomodate the Heisenberg equations. If we can find an equation between recourse to the divine and recourse to probabilistic deteeminations, no problems!
Barfield almost gets it, but not quite, in what of his that I have read. Ultimately, we have to give up the dualism of divinity and humanity.
If you’re [sic] not sure of how to spell “Weltanschauung,” how can I take anything you say seriously?
STEVE, is there something you can do about this? (That’s not a philosophical question!) Where are ProVet and Coldfacts when you really need them?
The sic was to indicate that Bacon wouldn’t have used the word weltanschauung not spelling but thanks, anyway.
Interesting that you mentioned Heisenberg and equations. Only recently, I’ve become fascinated with mathematical theories. Better late than never, I guess but what have you missed all these years. My excuse, too close to the father’s expertise. Ha ha
But would Bacon have used “Weltanschauung” if he had written in German?
See more below.
Davids, you took my post seriously? I was just joking with you. Once again, I should have used an appropriate emoji. I should have learned by now. As for “sic”, your stated reason for its usage is not typical. (<– That last sentence WAS serious!)
All’s good. I used weltanschanuung as a sort of shorthand joining German Romanticism, philosophy, Bacon’s dualism along with other terms to express they’re connectedness and demarcation which perimeiister would obviously know. There is so much gray in between the black and the white of thought and belief.
Forgive me if I am presuming incorrectly, that you are unfamiliar with and may have an interest in reading in the philosophical trade, but it occurs to me that Donald Davidson’s essay “On the very idea of a conceptual scheme” is right on the point of our exchange, expressly involves linguistic anthropology, and may be an ideal entrée. Historically, in that essay he’s taking the next step in the conversation in which WVO Quine’s “Two dogmas of empiricism” is a landmark, arguably THE landmark.
Thanks for the reading suggestion, most of my understanding of the ‘philosophical trade’ comes from works suggested by friends. French and German philosophy. Being an autodidactic sometimes allows you more pleasure. Having studied architecture/art your eye is more deconstructing, determining faults, than taking pleasure in the construction. Social Anthropology gives you an observation but with linguistic anthropology you are drilling down to the essence of cultural beliefs and ideologies. Regrettably, university limitations meant that only the former was available.
There are deep connections between American pragmatism, which label may readily be stretched to cover Quine and Davidson, and French and German thought, usually labeled idealism or phenomenology. Heidegger ties it all together with architectural theory, of which I have second hand knowledge. Lots of pleasure in discovering the structure of thinking.
Yes, I see that. As you no doubt suspect, with the emphasis on German Romanticism, Edmund Husserl and phenomenological reduction was mined in endeavoring to understand that period and it’s consequences.
I have read, but am no longer fluent in Husserl. To be continued….Thanks.
By the way, Capensis worked 4 furlongs breezing, in 0:48.77, at Belmont Park on September 18 so a start could be on the cards fairly soon.
Yes, I see Capensis has been working regularly for just about a month, and has good fitness at 4f. My guess is at least two more weeks for gate works, possibly a couple more weeks for 5f works, so if he doesn’t make like a strawberry, we may very well see his debut in October.
In keeping with the theme of female family sparking interest, Code for Success seems likely to repay attention.
I know the feeling about missing out, as I myself didn’t pursue advanced mathematical study, but at the same time I am pretty convinced it’s unnecessary to understanding the Important Ideas. Having a grasp of the axioms of alegebra, the Cartesian coordinate system and the elements of Euclidean geometry, probably suffices. Let’s hope that isn’t merely sour grapes talking. Ha ha.
Technically, Heisenberg’s are inequalities, but I was taking several short cuts in an attempt to be brief. I imagine you’ve come across the “Observer’s Paradox” in the realm of the social sciences? In it’s proper form, it’s the same idea within a different model, or field, of explanation.
Lately, I have been fascinated by how many traditional forms of legal expression in my present jurisdiction, which is approaching all of 200 years old, adopt the language of Newtonian mechanics.
Have you become fascinated by mathematical theories as a whole, or by some in particular?
Yes, as you would suspect ‘observer’s paradox’ is extremely relevant in the purity of anthropology ethnographies, field work etc and moreover, with linguistic anthropology. The latter being, arguably, one of the most fascinating of studies.
With the mathematical theories, I listened to a BBC podcast series of the ‘A Brief History of Mathematics’ narrated by Professor Marcus du Sautoy and was ‘hooked’ – pure science.
I’ve put the podcast into my list of things to attend, when time and space permit. It still includes Elizabeth David’s cookbooks and Derek Jarman on Caravaggio, thanks to you. Sounds like the podcast is something I would like too.
Unfortunately, I never learned to like listening to anything meaningful while exercising in any manner other than walking, and not always then. I don’t have as much regular opportunity to listen to things as I might, were my life differently organized.
Ha ha My exercise regimen is so robotic now that listening to podcasts saves me from the boredom. I’ll throw in another podcast series you may enjoy. “In Our Time” – shorthand knowledge/history by eminent experts in their field.
Sorry, Neil MacGregor podcasts and The Reith Lectures you may enjoy as well.
Someday I am sure we’ll discuss exercise routines in more detail, but not today. 🙂 If the next week doesn’t kill me, I will continue to have a lot on my plate through October. Then, I may be able to re-organize and make the horses central, but I won’t know until the end of next month. Doigts croisés.
I have heard some episodes of In Our Time, and you’re right to guess I would enjoy it. I’m adding the others to my list, thank you very much.
Good like with it.
Code for Success would be ideal as a broodmare for quite a few Sires at Lane’s End. A pedigree full of speed and stamina. Quality Road appeals as a future mating.
It seems very likely Code for Success was created for just such a purpose. She appears to have come to hand mentally very early, for an Honor Code.
Dance Code is another of his with very early smarts, but not enough bottom to run with the best at Saratoga — even had he not stumbled on the break in his second race. I hope his connections can provide for him at Belmont this fall.
It appears the cross with Mr Prospector line broodmares is the most successful for Honor Code which is not a great revolution considering his pedigree. Ha ha They seem to need time though.
Inferences about crosses I am sure are subject to sampling bias, but I have it on insider information that after Honor Code’s first two crops, his book was altered as well as training methods — having observed the trend toward sizable, substantial get needing a lot of time. So this year’s two year olds are the first results, and accordingly we’ve seen a good number coming to hand already.
Before this year’s 2yos, Livewire and I did an analysis, having observed that not all Mr. P-sire line broodmares work equally well. What seems needed for the best results with Honor Code is that the mare have at least three lines to Nearco, and at least one or two to Man o’ War or Fair Play. There are a couple of oddities, like it seems having a line to American Flag, as with Alydar, doesn’t carry the same effect as War Relic or War Admiral. Olden Times seems a good conduit. Calumet’s people have it figured, too.
In a couple of months I will test that theory against this year’s crop.
It will be interesting to see the outcome. Apart from Mr Prospector line broodmares other hypothetical broodmare line matings are not encouraging to say the least but all you can do is speculate. There are not a lot of Wild Again broodmares around anymore.
Will keep you posted on analytical developments, but will suggest hope be held out for mares from the remaining sire lines descended from Man O War, which consistently do well when bred to the AP Indy tribe. True, I’ve just run across a handful of Wild Again mares here, but I imagine there still are many in Japan.
Steve, this is a great idea for a fall/winter series. I’ll definitely be looking out for Commandperformance’s next race. One other maiden 2-year-old that impressed me was The Institute in Race 6 at Saratoga on September 2. It was a MSW (NY breds) at 5.5 furlongs.
The Institute debuted as the 2-1 favorite, and he broke from Post 1. Trained by Horacio DePaz, this colt by Into Mischief is out of Princess Violet who won the G1 Madison Stakes (7f) and was second in the G1 Mother Goose (8.5f).
You need to see the colt’s trip to believe it, but the chart description will give you a good idea:
“THE INSTITUTE broke out then was corrected by the rider and hustled, showed speed on the inside of three foes, was taken up badly and checked inside of a rank foe inside the nine-sixteenth then dropped back significantly, lost around four to five lengths on the front, raced inside early on the turn then moved to the two path under a firm left-handed grip, gained passing the five-sixteenths, swung six wide into upper stretch, chased the winner under the crop while outside in the drive and missed while clear for the place.”
With all of that, he lost by one length, and he was 1.5 lengths clear of the show horse. I’m not aware of a back story, but I’m anticipating his return.
Thank you, Eddie, I will definitely check that out. Thtats what I’m looking for. I already have a possibility for the next one, but maybe I’ll have to do a a couple at a time without inundating everyone with too many to watch. Now, if Commandperformance runs terribly next out I may have to can this idea with my tail between my legs.
Inundate us, please! And as Eddie F said, this is a brilliant idea for a fall series.
Lol. Thank you
The last major race for three year olds is upcoming….Penn Derby has become a top tier horse race! A couple of smallish colts from out west, have had two throw downs, Medina first and Hor Rod close third in both. This Sat looks like another throw down…..am hearing Medina was pressed by Ax Man, and Hot Rod went 1:24 1/5 on Friday, Hot Rod needs a definite victory, and I think he’s on the cusp of just that…..still—Medina ain’t no easy pickens!…..I heard Johnny V is moving his tack west…..I also have been hearing about Prat moving to New York, where he will be Chad’s first call…..
Both make sense, but only for first call on Chad, otherwise why leav that goldmine of so-so rider in California. Johnny V still has it but the Ortiz boys and Saez are taking up all the good mounts. I’ll still Johnny V in the big ones. He’ll knock ’em dead out there.
Flavien Prat has displayed his exceptional riding skills on his trips east to ride the stakes cards. Even if he doesn’t get 1st call rides from Chad Brown, he has earned the respect of many of the top outfits back east and should do well if moving his tack there. He has a lot of upside and his best is yet to be seen imo.
As for Johnny V., as the top money earning jockey of all time, he certainly can afford to slow down and, being in his late 40’s, he seems comfortable to pick his spots while cutting back on the volume of rides that eventually takes its toll on mature riders.
Just take a look at Mike Smith, now in his 50’s, This “money jock” seems to ride every other Saturday now, even while keeping himself in terrific shape for a man his age.
In many cases, moving one’s tack to a different circuit comes with a measure of risk as there are exceptional riders who rule the roost that you must compete with to get live mounts. A recent example of an ill advised move is Trevor McCarthy. Trevor was really having a good degree of success on the east coast (NJ, Maryland and New York) when suddenly he decides to move his tack to California because some agent sought him out when needing a jock to fill a void in his book. He’s been there over 4 months and so far, it hasn’t worked out.
Mike Smith may have to call it a career, with Bob B facing a big stable hit in the coming years….Agree about Prat—its a tough colony on New York. Prat will win less races, but so will his competitors! Two turn turf races Prat is as good as there is, and it looks like Brown is going to offer him first call.
Trevor McCarthy had another reason to move to California, in the NY rules requiring the coupling of betting interests when he and his wife rode in the same race.
What are his statistics in California, that cause you to say it’s not working out for him? Does it make sense to compare the results of his move with Joe Bravo’s?
I doubt that either of those jockeys will move. I’m not sure what happened between Irad Ortiz and Chad Brown, since his fall he’s been in a slump although getting lots of seconds. I doubt Chad Brown would try to lure a jockey to NY, he’s been winning for years with the local colony. Trevor McCarthy isn’t doing as well as Joe Bravo, he was good at Laurel, never that successful at Belmont, etc. I think he and his wife just wanted to move, the coupling rule was the excuse but it’s a good rule. There’s an enjoyable article on Joe Bravo and his move on America’s Best Racing, anyone can relate.
I doubt that the NY rule preventing Trevor and Katie riding in the same race was the reason for the move west. He was lured to California by an agent looking for a fresh face (can’t remember his name). Also, Trevor’s father, Mike trains on the California circuit.
Trevor moved his tack to the west coast on 5/28. He had 57 wins on the NYRA circuit (mostly in the winter). His west coast record is….
Santa Anita: 48/1
Los Alamitos: 14/3
Del Mar: 94/5
Total Cali record: 156/9 (6%)
Katie Davis last rode at Pimlico on 5/8. She has no record of any rides in California.
As for Joe Bravo, his venture into California was successful.
Santa Anita: 10/2
Del Mar: 126/21
Total Cali record: 136/23 (17%)
Thanks for posting those comparative winning stats. Clearly Joe Bravo immediately got into the winning flow of things, whereas Trevor (and Katie) as a coupled interest, has not so far. At least Trevor has gotten the opportunity that comes with a good lot of mounts.
I guess we’ll now see how things play out this fall, which may yield more insight into the parties’ thinking.
I should have done a better job vetting the status of Katie Davis. She has not ridden since May because she is pregnant. Katie and Trevor will be expecting their first child soon. Best wishes to the McCarthy family wherever they call home.
I suspected pregnancy, actual or intended, was a likely factor in their decision making—particularly given the presence of the senior McCarthy in California. Very happy to learn of the publication of their good news, and likewise offer my own congratulations.
Best to evaluate others’ decisions within the Big Picture and the Long Term, to the extent possible.
Corniche looked great, in his maiden win….last night I was impressed with the very rank colt that finished 2nd in the male race at Churchill…slow time but horse was always fighting the rider, and was still battling late….but the 2yo FILLY winner, wow! She looks like an older filly already, very girthy—and she came away like a good thing….
You just never know if a horse will two-turn, and that filly two-turned! Probably wasn’t beating much, but that filly will be very tough to beat at Del Mar.
Steve: Tickled to see this post just as I was updating my list of 2YOs this morning, especially since Commandperformance is already on the list. The most impressive 2YO I’ve seen racing this summer is My Prankster, picked out in the walking ring by my sister-in-law on Alabama day at Saratoga. He’s hardly under the radar, as he ran a 92 Beyer and is another Pletcher trainee.
Do you have an opinion about him?
Yes, he looked awesome. And didnt change leads until the eighth pole. He’s a typical Into Mischief and has a strong enough female family. But as you said he’s certainly not a sleeper after that race.
Excession is likely to be remembered for his narrowed second at 82/1 to Nadal in the 2020 Rebel Stakes. Why highlight Excession? Well, he is by Union Rags out of Draw It by Tapit. This represents the same sire and damsire combination that reflected in Commandperformance pedigree.
Excession was decent 3YO who seemed to have been plagued with physical issues. Who knows how he would have performed in the TC series if not for said issues.
He finished 8th on debut compared to Commandperformance’s trouble second. Commandperformance has therefore exhibited significantly more potential than Excession if their debut efforts is used as a measure. Given Excession’s promise that was compromised by his issues, Commandperformance’ is worthy of being highlighted.
Is it ever wise to make similar cross comparison? Well, the comparison is meaningless given that same sire and damsire are at times the only similarity in the gene pool. But it cannot to deemed totally meaningless, given that the most successful cross in TC history is the Mr. Prospector sire line over the Northern Dancer broodmare line.
I like many others do not know when to classify a youngster as being under the radar. A flashy and impressive MSW winner that is assigned a big speed figure will invariably turn up on radar as a potential KD prospect. But an upset winner of a MSW that is assigned a modest speed figure is viewed as just another average MSW winner.
It appears average MSW winners are youngsters that have shown potential but need to show more before being considered radar worthy. And thus are under the radar. If the aforementioned in an acceptable assessment of under the radar. Then a colt form the power house operation of Godolphin’s might just be worthy of being highlighted in this series.
The colt is Freelancer by Medaglia d’ Oro out of Libreta by Girolamo. He won on debut over 6F at Ellis Park in a time of 1:09.79 by 2 1/2L @16/1. He pressed the pace and drew off in the stretch. It must have been a best kept secret for a Godolphin bred and Brendan Walsh trained colt to light up he tote at such a price. The Equibase speed figure of 77 assigned to Freelancer cannot propel him to radar worthiness even with the Godolphin colors. But it shouldn’t be forgotten that Adayar won the Epsom Derby for the Operation as an under the radar entrant @16/1
From a pedigree perspective Medaglia d’ Oro has not been siring many KD Prospects. But given the sire’s brilliance in the breeding shed this could occur in any given season. The interesting portion of Freelancer’s pedigree is dam sire Girolamo. He can be considered an anomaly as an A P Indy progeny. He is the only son of the great a stallion to win a G1 over a sprint distance. His 1:09.41 win in the G1 Vosburgh is unheard of for an AP Indy sired made or female. Libreta the dam of Freelancer was a lightly raced under achievers that is reasonably well bred being from the Ghostzapper mare Enrichnment
Freelancer could have just faltered to deceive as do many impressive MSW winners on or under the radar. But a sprinting son of A P Indy as dam sire and the staying power of Medaglia d’ Oro. Who knows what was unleased at Ellis Park on August 8, 2021 in race 5.
The first three finishers of that race were on my radar screen after the race — Freelancer, Gunoe (wide trip), and Norgay (still green). But Gunoe came back and finished 3rd at Ellis at 3-5, second straight defeat at 3-5. The horse who beat him had finished a well-beaten fifth behind him in the race before. Freelancer is the sure thing to go a mile and a quarter. Good mover. 16-1 was absurd.
that churchill race was horribly slow……….
Yes, but the winner stumbled at the start and was 5 wide on the first turn. I’ll give him another shot
What a beautiful colt. Course you had me at “grey/roan”. Thank you for featuring his dam. Love these back ground stories. Hope he goes on to great things.
I will be watching this sleeper. Wonderful story about the love of racing and of a particular horse. I probably saw Smitten since I usually visit with Larry at Churchill and Keeneland. Also, Union Rags is one of my favorites
I love learning this story at this end of Commandperformance’s career. It will indeed be fun watching to see what direction he goes.
Thank you for telling the story of Smitten. I am a fan of yours although I don’t comment often. I look forward to more of “Steve’s Sleepers.”’ Here is my sleeper story. I was at Santa Anita one February afternoon watching the Robert Lewis Stakes. My friend bet on a 30:1 horse because she was a bartender and she picked horses whose names have something to do with alcohol or bartending. The horse’s name was I’ll Have Another.
LOL. I hope she parlayed her winnings in the Kentucky Derby. Feel free to comment whenever you wish. Btw, Paul Reddam said that name referred to cookies, but I’m not sure if I believe him, Lol
I think he was 43-1…..track was fast but he ran 1:40 4/5, and he won for fun, his first race since September, his first two turn race….only 94 Beyer….I was intrigued….went to see him work and was blown away—he’s going down the backstretch, ears moving forward to backward to forward, as if you say “WELL?…I’m waiting for your prompt”….rider dropped his hands and I’ll Have Another went to work! I missed out on the 43-1….but I got the 4-1…15-1….7/2— his other three starts that Spring..
Hello Steve, I’m still here and will be as long as you are a contributor. After all, who else would take me down the Derby Trail while providing such a rich education on bloodlines and heroes of the past. In truth, you provide an outlet for a retired equine veterinarian in Kentucky to feel they are a part of the glorious world of the thoroughbred while running their family beef farm in the non-racing state of NC. Don’t ever stop telling your stories, they are my lifeline.
I cant tell you how much your words mean to me, Susan. Thank you so much. So happy to see you here.
Great looking horse and a good story. It will be very interesting to see where he goes!
I too love looking for sleepers among the 2yo’s . I watched this race and agree with you he is a horse to follow . Good work Steve , love your column
Thank you, Ted.
Thank you Ted
Great article!! Love the history on the breeding. I’m going to have to go watch his maiden race now.
Thanks Marcy, I think you’ll be impressed
It’s never too early to start thinking KD and this article highlights why. I’ve been watching the baby races so I’m looking forward to your thoughts on the prospective runners.
It’s not surprising that a Todd Pletcher youngster was given first billing given the trainer’s record of being represented by multiple KD entrants each year. Whilst expectations should high that Commandperformance will likely emerge as a Kentucky Derby prospect. History indicates he is also likely to finish amongst the also rans given his trainer’s abysmal KD record.
From a pedigree perspective, it wouldn’t be unreasonable to conclude that Union Rags, has been a disappointment to date. Further, Tapit as a broodmare sire has been reasonably good but his mares have not been producing classic contenders. The A P Indy broodmare line has only experienced modest success in the TC series.
Union Rags over Tapit is an unlikely combination to for a KD prospect and a grossly unlikely cross to produce a KD winner. Well, my assessment could prove to be absolutely wrong. But this provides an opportunity for armature bloodstock agents to follow the progression of 2YO assessed early to KD Propects.
MILLIONAIRE BROODMARES CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SUB PAR RUNNERS
Who can forget Cocoa Beach the brilliant mare from Chile. She was the winner of 10 of 17 starts with earnings of $1.7M. Her Into Mischief 2YO colt, Beach Holiday is in the barn of Brad Cox. The colt has been beaten by a combine 12L in 2 starts in which he finished 2nd & 5th. His Equibase figures of 52 & 55 suggests is way under radar as a likely KD prospect But could be find success on turf.
OK, I’ll take this column down tomorrow. I’m shocked you had something negative to say.
Mr. Haskin,
Hope weekend is going well for you. Also,can’t wait until reading Derby pics again.
Unreal!
i ALWAYS give my honest opinion……….i LOVE WHAT I SAW…….good eye…..
I value your opinion
Why do you refer to horses as GARBAGE?
Pro vet, my question is to you.
Even if you are off base with him, the column is not irrelevant. It’s a fascinating story of two very appealing horses. mother and son, and it deserves to be told. I too was impressed with Commandperformance’s race on September 6, and I wish him well. It may be a little early to think Derby, but who knows? I could cheer for him.
Thank you. I appreciate it