Steve’s Sleepers: Rattle N Roll and Zandon
We’re giving you two Kentucky Derby sleepers this week because we had Rattle N Roll ready to go, but it had to be put off for two weeks and the colt wound up running in the Breeders’ Futurity…and romping at 8-1. So this is more of a look at was written before the race and after the race and how we got wind of him. We’re also including a recent maiden winner who checked off all the boxes and looks to be Derby material. ~ Steve Haskin
Steve’s Sleepers: Rattle N Roll and Zandon
By Steve Haskin
The house at which we stay in Saratoga is located a stone’s throw from Kenny McPeek’s barn, directly across Fifth Avenue from the entrance to the Oklahoma training track. This year, with McPeek’s barn under quarantine and his horses unable to train until 11 a.m. after all the other horses had completed their training, the only way I was going to see Swiss Skydiver was head out the back gate of the house and wait for her by the track.
It was there that I met McPeek’s assistant Francis Chiumiento.There were several horses scheduled to train before Swiss Skydiver. One of them was a classy-looking chestnut colt named Rattle N Roll, who Francis couldn’t stop raving about.
“I’ve been around enough good horses to know one when I see one and this colt is special” said Francis, who has been hotwalking since he was 10-years old.“In his first race he was green as grass and was flying on the rail. But we could see how smart he was. The quarantine really messed us up, but he’s ready to run now. He just does everything right and has had no issues at all other than being a little green from day one. We felt from the start he could be the real deal. The question is how quickly he’ll mature. Once he understands what the job entails the sky’s the limit. I would be shocked if he’s not a Grade 1 winner.”
When Francis said the quarantine had messed them up, he was referring to the colt being entered for his second start on July 17 and having to be scratched after a horse in Kenny’s barn, trained by Jose Abreu, came down with equine herpesvirus, which prevented all horses in that barn from racing for 21 days and training with the other horses.
So I took several photos of him on the track and waited for him to run again. The first thing I did was go back and watch his debut at six furlongs. He broke last from post 2 in a 12-horse and dropped far back, with only one horse beat down the backstretch. On the far turn he completely lost touch with the field and was some 15 lengths back. At the head of the stretch he was still 13 lengths off the pace. He swung out several paths and then darted back toward rail where he really turned it on. He was still sixth, 7 ½ lengths back at the eighth pole, and looked to have no shot to finish in the money. But he kept pouring it on and was flying at the end to get third, beaten five lengths by Gunite, who would go on to romp in the Hopeful Stakes. Racecaller Travis Stone said as he crossed the wire, “…Rattle N Roll from nowhere to get third.”
With a performance like that he would have been a perfect horse to write about for the “Derby Sleepers” series except for the fact that the idea for the series at that time had never even entered my mind. That wouldn’t come until the final weekend of Saratoga when I saw Commandperformance make his debut and the idea came to me.
The week before, Rattle N Roll finally made it to the gate for his much-anticipated second start. Around the turn he was moving so fast I thought for sure he was a lock to win. But out of nowhere he bolted badly and was pulled up by Jose Ortiz. I, like others, thought he had suffered an injury and just hoped it was nothing serious. As it turned out, McPeek said he was hit in the eye with something, possibly a clod of dirt.
On September 23, he showed up in a 1 1/16-mile maiden race at Churchill Downs. I couldn’t wait to see what he would do around two turns. He ducked out slightly at the start and got creamed by the horse on his outside who came in on him. He was able to settle in midpack under Brian Hernandez, but was trapped the entire run down the backstretch and around the turn with no place to go, while being caught behind a very slow pace. After straightening into the stretch there was an opening on the inside he quickly shot through and in a flash was gone. Running straight as the proverbial arrow this time and striding out beautifully with great extension, he drew off to a three-length victory without being touched with the whip and then just kept pouring it on with a monster gallop-out,leavingthe others far behind.
His speed figures came back slow, but that didn’t bother me because of the ridiculously slow pace and him having nowhere to run. What I saw in the stretch was all I needed to see to schedule him as my second Derby sleeper. So I contacted several people to get his back story and was all set, but had to put it off two weeks due to other column priorities.
Well, we all know what happened. He was entered in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity and sent off at an enticing 8-1. I put a bet on him and then watched as he demolished 12 opponents with one of the most explosive moves on the turn seen all year. Once again he surged past everyone in a flash and drew off to win by 4 ¼ lengths. To demonstrate how strong his race was and how much improvement he had shown, his Thoro-Graph figures jumped from a slow “16” to a mediocre “10 ½” to a sensational “3 ½,” which was faster than Jack Christopher, considered the fastest 2-year-old in the country, ran in the Champagne Stakes.
This horse has shown he can overcome trouble at the start and being trapped in tight quarters, he has an electrifying turn of foot that can put him in contention in a flash, is maneuverable enough to be taken outside, inside or between horses, and can burst clear of horses under a hand ride. And he runs straight and true in the stretch and holds his legs under him perfectly. In short, he is a true professional with no flaws.
As for his pedigree, he will run all day. His sire, Connect, is a son of Curlin out of a Holy Bull mare, who won the Cigar Mile and Pennsylvania Derby. He has a great combination of stamina and speed top and bottom. His second dam is by Jockey Club Gold Cup and Suburban Handicap winner Pleasant Tap, who is by major stamina influence, Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner Pleasant Colony, a son of the Ribot stallion His Majesty. Pleasant Tap’s broodmare sire is another major stamina influence, Belmont winner Stage Door Johnny.
Rattle N Roll’s third dam Dance Review produced two Grade 1 winners and is out of Dumfries, a half-sister to the top-class racehorse and champion sire Lyphard and the Vaguely Noble filly Nobiliary, who has the unique distinction of finishing second in the English Derby and then coming to America where she won the Washington D.C. International against a star-studded field. She is the only filly since 1916 to place in the Derby.
Now that we have told the story of Rattle N Roll the racehorse, let’s go back to the beginning and tell how he got there. The colt was bred in Kentucky by St. Simon Place, who also bred this year’s undefeated Pocahontnas Stakes winner Hidden Connection.
Rattle N Roll had some problems as a foal that wouldn’t respond to antibiotics and it took a while to get him going. That November it was decided to sell him at the Keeneland mixed sale as a weanling and he brought $55,000, then was pinhooked the following year at the Keeneland September yearling sale for $210,000, where he was purchased by Kenny McPeek for the Mackin family’s Lucky Seven Stable, which is named after the five Mackin siblings and their parents.
After selling him as a weanling, St. Simon Place’s Tommy Wente began having seller’s remorse. “He had all this medicine in him from an early age and he just wasn’t right,” Wente said “He wasn’t ready to sell as a weanling. It was a mistake; I screwed up. We left a bunch of money on the table. But you have just so much money to run the farm and you can’t keep all of them. You just try to raise as much money as you can.”
It was Carrie and Craig Brogden of Machmer Hall who prepared Rattle N Roll for the mixed sale and acted as agent under the name Select Sales.
“He was a lovely colt and I remember distinctly that two minutes after he sold, Tommy looked at me and said, ‘I should have waited and sold him as a yearling; that was too cheap,’” Carrie recalled. “And that is never how Tommy feels after selling a horse. He was a correct, strong, tough colt and was really uncomplicated.”
Wente added, “Sometimes fate is like that. He eventually wound up in good hands with Kenny. He tweeted me after he bought him and said he’ll be a stakes winner by fall.”
McPeek has been one of the most astute judges of young horses in the country for a number of years, picking out a great many future stakes winners, including Curlin, for modest prices.
“I can remember exactly what barn he was in, Barn 19 (Paramount Sales), and which path he walked on,” McPeek said. “He had a great presence and walk, huge shoulders and a great hip. He brought a little more than we expected, but obviously he was worth it.”
This summer, Rattle N Roll was sent to Saratoga and it didn’t take long for Francis Chiumiento to recognize his potential.
Following his Breeders’ Futurity victory, Chiumiento reiterated all that he liked about him. “He’s very smart and does everything right,” he said. “He was just a little green. The first time he ran he really didn’t know what he was doing. But I could tell he was special. He has such a fluid easy stride and does everything so effortlessly. After he bolted we worked with him and the light bulb finally went on.”
And it obviously has stayed on for good after his dramatic improvement when moved into Grade 1 company against some of the top 2-year-old prospects in the country and defeating them decisively. Rattle N Roll came out of his race in good shape and will head to Del Mar for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and a shot at the 2-year-old championship. From a handicapping standpoint his “3 ½” Thoro-Graph number was not only extremely fast, but a huge leap forward from his previous start. But was it too huge a leap? McPeek said he prides himself in getting young horses to move forward, so we will see what he does following such a fast speed figure and big jump. Remember, this is about the Derby, not the Breeders’ Cup.
For the purposes of this column and series it doesn’t matter where he runs as long as he stays on track for the first Saturday in May and can keep improving. McPeek, who ran second in the Kentucky Derby with Tejano Run in 1995, said all he can do is hope there is a Derby with his name on it. He has already smelled the black-eyed susans from afar after picking out Preakness winner Curlin as a bloodstock agent and the carnations up close as trainer of Belmont Stakes winner Sarava and Travers winner Golden Ticket, both gigantic longshots. After the Breeders’ Futurity you can bet Rattle N Roll has given him an early whiff of those elusive roses.
IMPRESSIVE DEBUT BY ZANDON
There are very few traditional family-owned breeding operations left that have been breeding, raising, and racing horses off their farm and breeding to their stallions. One of those farms that is still flourishing is Brereton Jones’ Airdrie Stud, located on historic and picturesque Old Frankfort Pike in Midway, Kentucky.
Airdrie is located on the site of the famed Woodburn Stud, home of the immortal Lexington during his amazing 16-year reign as America’s leading sire in the 19th century, as well as 5 Kentucky Derby winners. But from the turn of the 20th century until 1972 there were no Thoroughbreds residing on the property until Jones took over a large part of the farm and named it Airdrie Stud. Since then 215 stakes winners have been bred and raised at Airdrie, including 24 Grade 1 winners. From 2008 to 2015, Jones, the now 82-year-old former Governor of Kentucky, won three Kentucky Oaks. Two of the winners he bred from his stallion Proud Citizen, who also sired homebred Mark Valeski, who won or placed in five graded stakes for Jones.
Next year marks the 50th anniversary of Airdrie Stud and what better way to celebrate than as the breeder of the Kentucky Derby winner.
Jones certainly would be one of the most popular Derby winners in years, especially in Kentucky, and it’s just possible the wheels have already been set in motion.
Those wheels started rolling on October 9 at Belmont Park when the Airdrie-bred Zandon, trained by Chad Brown, broke his maiden in his career debut going six furlongs. In terms of being a Derby horse, those obviously were just baby steps, but there was enough to suggest that this colt could have a bright future.
Sent off at 5-1 in the seven-horse field, Zandon broke a step slow, then moved up between horses, settling in fourth, while stuck down on the inside behind horses. Around the far turn it was obvious he did not like the kickback, as he had his head cocked to the inside. Turning for home, he was still behind horses with nowhere to go. Joel Rosario finally managed to move out for clear sailing nearing the eighth pole and once he did Zandon immediately turned on the afterburners and took off after the 7-5 favorite Matt Doyle. Displaying push-button acceleration and a flawless stride he flew home his final eighth in :11 3/5 to win going away by 1 ½ lengths in 1:10 3/5. And this followed an :11 4/5 eighth when he had to wait for running room.
It was veteran bloodstock agent Mike Ryan who picked out Zandon at the Keeneland September yearling sale for $170,000 for owner Jeff Drown.
“I had looked at him at the farm on August 13 and really liked him,” Ryan said. “He was a big, strong colt and very impressive looking with a great head and eye. He turned in just a hair on his left foot, but he was a quality colt who had a lot of presence and was a good mover. I saw he was in Book 4 at the Keeneland sale and remembered how much I liked him on the farm and went to see him at the sale. It had been five weeks since I last saw him on the farm and young horses can change quickly, But I still loved everything about him and called Jeff and told him how much I liked the colt. He had spent a lot of money already, but we went ahead and got him.
“He’s done very well since. He ate a lot of dirt in his first start and had his head turned sideways. There was no wasted action and he had excellent knee action and was a very efficient mover. I thought he looked magnificent and seems to have a bright future.”
Zandon received a “6 ½” Thoro-Graph number, which is excellent for a first-time starter and he should only keep improving as the distances get longer. He has Airdrie Stud written all over his pedigree. Jones bred his dam and second dam and stands his sire Upstart and broodmare sire Creative Cause. Upstart’s sire, Flatter, is the sire of Flat Out, two-time winner of the Jockey Club Gold Cup and Suburban Handicap, and won the Grade 1 Cigar Mile at age 7. Upstart’s dam is by Belmont Stakes winner Touch Gold. Creative Cause was a Grade 1 winner who placed in the Preakness, Santa Anita Derby, and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.
What I love most about Zandon’s pedigree is that his dam traces to the great blue hen producer Boudoir II, who produced Your Hostess, the granddam of Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner Majestic Prince; Your Host, the sire of five-time Horse of the Year Kelso; and Flower Bed, whose daughter Flower Bowl won the Delaware Handicap and produced full-brothers by Ribot, Graustark and His Majesty (both major classic influences ) and Bowl of Flowers, champion 2-year-old and 3-year-old filly and winner of the Coaching Club American Oaks and Spinster Stakes.
“Zandon was a beautiful colt as a yearling,” said Brereton Jones’ son Bret who plays a major role in the operation and bred this year’s top-class sprinter Bell’s the One. “We lost (his second dam) Incarnate Memories this year, but fortunately we kept (Zandon’s dam) Memories Prevail. His third dam Witness Post was a very fast filly but got hurt and never ran. Bill Graves touted my dad on her and he bought her at the Keeneland November mixed sale for only $15,500. We’re so lucky that dad decided to develop the family. Zandon first caught our attention when when he worked in company with a son of Curlin and ran off and left him”
Both horses were clocked out of the gate down the backstretch to the half-mile pole with Zandon in front by three lengths. But once they hit the far turn, Zandon quickly opened up by 10 to 15 lengths while under a strong hold.
Chad Brown said Zandon also earned a fast Ragozin figure and he now will point for the one-mile Nashua Stakes at Aqueduct on November 7. He still has a long way to go, as do most of these sleepers, but with Brereton Jones a definite Derby gods candidate to provide class, tradition, and history to next year’s Derby on his farm’s 50th anniversary, Zandon has a lot going for him already.
Photos courtesy of Steve Haskin and Adam Coglianese
Steve, I realize the last posting for this article on “sleepers” was Bill’s three weeks ago. Nevertheless, since that’s the topic, this is where I’m going to tell you about another one – on the off chance you didn’t see it. Please check out Sunday’s 8th race from Churchill and the horse who finished 2nd. Interesting.
The BC entries will be revealed on Wednesday (10-27). I’m looking forward to see if Jasper Great will ship in from Japan, and be an entry in the BC Juvenile (colts). Listed at 28-1 on BC Futures, he blew away the field in his maiden race, at Hanshin, by 10 lengths. If he does ship, look out for this one.
Steve, in the 11th paragraph, you gave an excellent summary of what impresses you when you watch a 2yo in its first race or two. Without giving away the secret to your success, could you tell the amateur race fans here (e.g., me) what else you’re looking for? In general terms, of course.
I look for a horse who does everything professionally and is always bright and alert, in other words a horse knows and does what is expected him and is competitive.. Action is very important and I want a horse with no flaws in his stride. He has to have decent speed figures, a good turn of foot, or if he doesnt, the ability to sustain his run a long way. and I want to see enough in his pedigree to assure me he will get 10 furlongs.
Many thanks for your reply, Steve. I need to learn to focus on the stride of horses. I know you’ve often written about how a horse floats over the track. That’s something I need to identify better than I do now. As for a “good turn of foot,” I often get fooled by a horse that is simply passing tired horses. But I suppose that is part of the equation: that the horse in question ISN’T tiring when the other are.
Hope to see a new column soon!
Ha! Just saw your latest column put up. 🙂
Bob Numeyer (I’m sure I misspelled) passed away, was Breeders Cup favorite of mine.
I’m so sorry to hear that. He was a good guy and a great presence on TV for many years as handicapper on NBC.
I’m so sorry to hear that, Matthew. “Numy” and Mike Battaglia made a wonderful tag team on TV broadcasts on many major race days for years. They were often wrong as often as they were right, but so entertaining.
Being wrong as often as right in racing is 50 percent. I’ll take that any day considering no one is ever wrong as often as right. LOL
Suffered a stroke in 2014….wasn’t that old….
Many of Bob Baffert’s fans are of the opinion that the enhanced testing protocol adopted by the Breeder Cup Board is unwarranted and represents a needless singling out the trainer. Grossly unfair is the consensus amongst these fans. The big question has to be. Have the performances of Bob Baffert’s horses raised Red Flags? Well, let’s look at a few:
MEDINA SPIRIT
In the colt’s last KD Prep he was beaten by 4 1/4L in the SA Derby completed in 149.17. His approximate final time would as in the range 1:50 plus. An extrapolated 10F time would be in the range of 2:03 plus. Medina Spirit was badly beaten by a combined 12 1/4Lin his last two KD Preps.
Hot Rod Charlie won his final prep in the LA Derby in a NTR. Essential won the Blue Grass in 1:48.50 and won both his KD preps..Mandaloun who surprisingly ran badly in LA Derby had won one of his last 2 KD preps and was working brilliantly ahead of the KD.
Medina Spirit turned up at the KD and delivers a gate to wire performance defeating the top opponents that entered with better records and form. There have been upsets in the KD but this one was similar to the previous year.
AUTHENTIC
This colt was easily defeated by Honor A P in the SA Derby. He just held off NY Traffic by a diminishing HD in the Haskell. Tiz the Law was all the rage winning KD preps with the ease of a hot knife going through butter. Authentic was just a tenacious as Medina Spirit in the stretch and repelled the challenge of Tiz The Law who had recorded better numbers and performances ahead of the KD. The trainer of Tiz The Law appeared right when he uttered ‘Bob can whow up with a skinny mule and win a major G1″
Two colts whose last two KD Preps suggested that both were unlikely to emerge the winner of the KD. But they did whilst defeating more accomplished opponents. There form reversal was neither unexpected nor not surprising. This occurs regularly with horses trained and conditioned by Bob Baffert.
BAYERN
Finished last by 20L in the Travers. Four weeks later won the PA Derby in a NTR. A Further 4 weeks later left the gate of the BCC like a tornado causing a chain reaction of infractions en-route to winning in gate to wire fashion. Beaten by 20L in the Travers in 2:02.93 with an approximate final time being in the range of 2:04 plus. Eight weeks late won his 2nd attempt over 10F won in 1:59.98. It should be noted that California Chrome who defeated Bayern by 21L in the Preakness finished behind him in both the PA Derby and BCC. One horses went on to become and International champion and 2Time HOTY and the other faded into obscurity.
GAME ON DUDE
Before the 2014 Big Cap, Game on Dude had contested 12 races over 10F. His best time for the distance was 1:59.49 recorded as a 4YO. At the ripe old age of 7, Game On Dude destroyed Will Take Charge and Mucho Macho Man en-route to winning the Big Cap in a NSR of 1:58.18. Will Take Charge and Mucho Macho Man had 3 months earlier left the then 6YO GOD in their wake in the 2013 BCC. The Big Cap has been won by seven horse age 7, including the great Seabiscuit. None has run as fast . The previous stakes record for the Big Cap was 1:58.60 held by TC winner Affirmed and he established it as a 4YO.
Folks Bob Baffert isn’t some genius. He isn’t better than many of trainers in the US. The form reversals of his horses are not due to training and conditioning. Just as Flo Jo’s transition to super woman wasn’t due to her declared new diet. Bill
Mott was undefeated with Cigar for two years whilst winning 16 consecutive races. As Cigar got older he wasn’t running faster. Game On Dude was no part of Cigar.
The enhanced testing protocol adopted for BB are not only necessary but are long over due.
No comment on your off-topic post other than to call out your misquoting of Barclay Tagg. The actual quote was this, from the Times Union:
When the role of Travers favorite was brought up to Tiz the Law trainer Barclay Tagg, he smirked. “Baffert will probably be the favorite,” Tagg said. “He could bring a skinny mule and he would be the favorite.”
So not only did you change the wording, but you changed the context. How about an apology?
Good luck with that. His next post off topic just to bash Baffert will be deleted. After that he will be deleted. I have warned him about this. He is treading a very thin line.
I do know Bob told Mike Smithto hit Authentic left handed, and he would spurt away—Mike didn’t, and they nearly lost the Haskell….Johnny V listened to Bob….Medina Spirit is tough when he makes the front—-PLEASE don’t bring up the Preakness, which is two weeks after the Derby—Medina is not a big animal…..but no one…NO ONE— has or is suggesting the horse received PEDS for the Kentucky Derby….
Game on Dude ran MANY great 10 fur races! If he got a lonely lead he was the nuts! You cherry pick Bob—Knicks Go, ever heard of him? Late 4yo…..turned into Precisionist—new trainer……it happens, horses improve—and there really AREN’T many trainers as good as Bob, at bringing out the optimum performance out of a horse.
Speaking of Cigar, its a good thing Bob didn’t train HIM….Horse didn’t win a stakes till nis 20th (approx) start, what would you have said about Bob if HE had trained him!
Check out Messier ridiculously easy maiden winner at SA today 4th race. Owner, trainer the usual suspects.
He shoots…he scores!
Yes indeed, that was ridiculously easy. Messier showed excellent speed throughout, and with his stamina laced pedigree, on both sides, he should be able to run all day. Baffert just keeps rolling out these classy 2yr. olds, year after year. It’s probably too late to consider running him in the BC Juvenile, but he’s certainly a colt to keep an eye on moving forward.
I’ll be interested to see the appropriately named Figlio Del Re in today’s 8th race at Laurel (2yo mdn, 7f).
* By the late great Galileo out of the multiple G1 winning I’m a Chatterbox, who had the misfortune of running against Beholder, Songbird, Stellar Wind, and Forever Unbridled in the 2016 BC Distaff.
* The homebred debuted last month for Graham Motion on the turf at Belmont and lost by the length of an Irish estate. At least the winner returned to win the Belmont Futurity, and the 2nd-place horse broke his maiden next time out.
The debut effort must have been a huge disappointment for the connections, but there’s reason to believe that dirt may be to his liking considering the dam’s résumé. The last two works at Fair Hill were much quicker than his works there previous to the debut. Horses training at Fair Hill have done well in the past couple of weeks. Perhaps the tote board will offer an indication. Betting on Figlio in the Belmont turf race was tepid (10-1).
Thanks Eddie … I will be watching the race in 14 minutes… the son of Galileo is third favorite at 6 to 1.
Three nice maiden worth following are:
# Bourbon Heist ( PRACTICAL JOKE – ELUSIVE ONE, BY ELUSIVE QUALITY ) FOALED APRIL 16, 2019. A maiden who defeat many good 2-year-olds in his 4th place in the Iroquois.
# Apprehend ( ARROGATE – HERO’S AMOR, BY STREET HERO ) FOALED FEBRUARY 21, 2019 second to Corniche in their debut
# Cyberknife ( GUN RUNNER – AWESOME FLOWER, BY FLOWER ALLEY ) FOALED MARCH 14, 2019
This son of Gun Runner trained by Brad Cox won his debut but was so very green that was disqualified. He looks like a good one especially with more maturing
Very good call Eddie… Figlio del Re just won the race. I hit the exacta with Caminero in second. Thanks for the post.
Thanks, Nelson. That one had my heart racing. Figlio was being hammered from his 10-1 ML. At one point, maybe 5 minutes before post, he was 3-1. I’m not too accustomed to betting Laurel races. Are the odds typically so wacky from one minute to the next? I made my bet as they were loading into the gate and his odds were either 9-2 or 5-1. Final odds were 8-1. Figlio was game the whole trip, fending off multiple challenges late. All despite the announcer mispronouncing his name! 🙂
Appreciate the heads up on the three young-uns.
And your Caminero helped my place price. Nice exacta bet…good going!
Hey Eddie, great call on Figlio, nice $18 winner!!
Thanks! A very exciting race!!
Facts, I noticed American Sanctuary also. I look for improvement at a juicy price! Good call.
Ahead of the Hopeful G1, I mentioned I liked Defend an American Freedom colt who captured my attention with an impressive MSW win at Delaware Park. The fact that the colt’s connections had retained the services of leading rider Saez, made him a serious contender. Well, the colt couldn’t have performed any worst. He finished 10 of 11 and appeared to have bolted and had to be pulled up.
My interest in Defend led me to be on the look out for the progenies of American Freedom who like Tapit is son of Pulpit. I came across American Sanctuary in the Sapling Stakes at Monmouth Park. His PPs were decent so it was time to recover losses. He made a big sweeping move to pass the leaders on the turn for home and looked the likely winner. However, he was mowed downs by Double Thunder a member of the High Octane barn of Todd Pletcher.
In reviewing the entrants for the Breeders Futurity I was surprised to see American Sanctuary entered. Also entered was Double Thunder. American Sanctuary got the jump on Double Thunder in the 8F Sapling and he couldn’t repel his late challenge. What chance would he have going an extra 1/2F? Something rather strange occurred in the Breeders Futurity which leads me to believe American Sanctuary could be a whole lot better than advertised.
American Sanctuary is an April foal whose dam was sired by E Dubai considered to be the fastest son of Mr. Prospector. The colt broke in maiden over 5Fin 57.68 by 8 1/2L. He lost his next start over 6F by 1/2L in a time of 1:10.51. He therefore possesses some of the speed that his sire and dam sire displayed.
When the gates opened for the Futurity, American Sanctuary was relegated to last some13L off the leader. I invite all to revisit the video of the Futurity and focus on the entrant in last. It will reflect just how effortlessly American Sanctuary passed opponents whilst on the rail. His rider had to switch off the rail approaching the final turn and that slowed his momentum. It didn’t help that he got caught traffic and had to check off horses for his final effort. He finished 6L behind the impressive Rattle and Roll who had clear passage on the outside..
A colt with 57 speed for 5F isn’t suppose to be occupying last position in routing race. That doesn’t compute. The breathtaking move this colt made passing opponents is rarely seen. He is a probable for the BCJ. I would have put him away for Spring assault. But who can fault his connection. A $2M purse is always an incentive.
The BCJ pace is likely to be contentious. If this colt has improved off his last effort and can be rated closer to pace. He could used his effortless movement to get on the board at a big price.
There is speed and stamina in this colt’s pedigree. It must be a plus that his dam sire E Dubai won the 10F Suburban covering the last 2F in 23.85. He is also the sire of gate to wire BCC winner Fort larden.
You’re late. This horse has already been discussed.
I mentioned his terrible trip at Monmouth, was very wide both turns and carried out on the first turn….last race he was pinched back into the first turn….trainer Davis has two longshots, he also trains the colt that was very rank at Churchill, yet stayed on late. Another longshot will be ridden by 50 year old Kent D…Ovett Class—and we’ve seen this movie before, a few years ago at Santa Anita the brothers won the Juvy.
Count me as one who thinks Golden should’ve mapped out a Classic plan for Mishriff–They beat Charlatan on the wrong lead! “Too tired”…..from all of the hard turf races, could have been “Horse of the World”, on dirt…..cudda…..
My lovely spell check!
LOL. At least it didn’t change Mishriff to Midriff.
An edit option needed given the size of the font
Agree! A guy on HRN said I edit my posts…yeah, I do….but I don’t change my picks, I am correcting my misspelled words!
HRN is asleep at the wheel for a long time.
Lot of anger on that site….lots of name calling, sheesh, its Horse Racing, where everybody has an opinion, or twenty! Picking winners isn’t an exact science, we lose more often than win—
Because of one individual- using 30 monikers with an obsessive crush for one trainer only. Fact!
Yes Eddie… I had mentioned Mo Donegal’s encouraging debut to qualify him as another Pletcher sleeper and Steve replied saying that the winner Varatti is equally promising. That was under the Commanderperformance article if memory serves me well.
Nelson, I couldn’t find the earlier post. But it was a nice spotting of the first timer. Nelson’s Nappers! 🙂
LOL…Just hope they are not snorer or sleepwalkers so they can be dreamers in May
For the real outside chances – “Steve’s Somnambulant(s)”
Steve, did you catch the 7th race MSW (1 1/16m) at Belmont today? The winner was 6-5 favorite Mo Donegal, who finished 3rd at 6.5f three weeks ago for Pletcher. Again, the colt broke a step slow, but this time had no impediments thereafter…other than being wide the whole way. He put in a furious rally from the turn to the finish despite a very slow pace. He’s by Uncle Mo out of a Pulpit mare, and his 2nd dam, Island Sand, won the Acorn and the 10f Delaware Hcp.
My reply above …
Yes, I discussed Mo Donegal and had him on my list of horses to watch off his third. The bigger the list gets the harder it is to feature any one horse. He would have been one had he not run back. He was 6-5 and was being hit numerous times on the far turn and didnt seem to be going anywhere. But he was able to sustain his run and run down the leader. Right now he looks like a Remsen horse and I predict thats where you’ll see him next.
Steve: I see from the chart that no time was recorded for Mo Donegal’s winning race. Timer malfunction?
It was timed during the race. 1:45 1/5. They must have found a malfunction
Thanks again Steve for bringing to light three solid prospects to follow during the Derby Trail. If they can endure the toil of the coming months, they might very well emerge as contenders in the Derby.
Your acute and thorough observations about Commandperformance, Rattle N Roll and Zandon convinced me that they possess running style, the genes and the physique of the Derby horses.
Any horse who can run the last furlong in less than 12 seconds deserves special respect … and your promising trio has just done that at some point.
Union Rags and Tapit are joining their genetic powers for Commanderperformance.
Rattle N Roll is from the first crop of Connect who looks to become one of the best Stallions by the great Curlin.
Connect is battling Gun Runner for the freshman sire championship. An interesting coincidence is that Connect won the Pennsylvania Derby over non other than Gun Runner. That Penn Derby field included Nyquist and Exaggerator albeit in declining form.
Connect is counting mainly on Rattle N Roll and Hidden Connection to attempt outstripping Gun Runner; and the latter got Echo Zulu, Gunite, Pappacap and Wicked Halo as his best cards to keep the lead.
Zandon’s pedigree amuses me with A.P. Indy, Touch Gold, Giant Causeway and Indian Charlie aligned in his third generation. A.P. Indy is the premier Broodmare Sire with Giant Causeway running second and Indian Charlie in 9th place by earnings this year… all of them warrant the needed stamina for the Classics.
At this moment it is difficult to rank the three prospects from the pedigree standpoint, but Zandon will likely have an early opportunity to prove his stamina in the Remsen Stakes.
Hopefully Zandon has better 3-year-old luck than previous winners of the Nashua and the Remsen if he is taking that New York route this year.
I look forward to your next Sleepers to build a stellar virtual stable towards the 2022 Kentucky Derby.
Zandon is listed at 125-1 on William Hill’s 2022 Kentucky Derby Futures. Get those odds while you can!
Has the list of betting interests been published as yet? Are there any unraced betting interest like Bezos?
Hey Facts
Yesterday, Ron Flatter, of HRN, posted the Early 2022 KD Futures odds on 141 horses at William Hill (LV). To answer you question, “Are there any unraced betting interest like Bezos”? Good luck with that.
Thanks.
Thanks for the information Bill.
I am not familiar with William Hill’s Kentucky Derby Futures… and not sure I am able to place bets there as I am not US resident.
I rely on my Canadian Horse Racing betting website for futures.
Perhaps we will be able to bet some solid Steve sleepers in the coming months.
Keenly hoping to see Steve giving his “Sleepers of the West” and even “Sleepers on the Turf” for more betting choices …!
Your welcome Nelson
With respect to Turf colts, I really liked Dakota Gold’s performance in the Nownownow Stakes, at Monmouth Park, on September 26th. He’s listed as a “probable” in the BC Juvenile Turf. You might want to give him a close look.
Good luck.
I will Bill.
The Undefeated NY-bred by Freud (full to Giant Causeway by the way) seems to like dirt as well given his promising debut at Saratoga.
“Union Rags and Tapit are joining their genetic powers for Commanderperformance.”
I am not overly impressed with Commanderperformance. His Champagne effort reveal a lot. He was hard ridden from about 5F out. He was under a strong drive in the lane and at no point did it appear he was ever going get to the leader. In fact, he was merely closing into real estate long vacated by the winner.
His running style is consistent with that of many Tapit sired runners. In Commanderperformance’s case it appears to a have inherited the grinding running style it from his dam.
A colt with modest cruising speed and no noticeable acceleration in the lane is grossly pace dependent. Such a runner isn’t going to win a lot o race against those in the upper echelon of the division. Particularly those with high cruising speed out of which they can accelerate and sustain to the line.
My perspective of the colt might be grossly different from that of others. But this undoubtedly is what makes the process of evaluating these youngsters interesting
My aim was to just very briefly highlight the stamina dose present in Steve’s promising trio as he has already expounded about their pedigrees.
My perception of Commanderperformance performance in the Champagne is pretty different from yours though.
If you take a comparative analysis you may very well see that the son of Union Rags was only one length in front of Wit at the start and the fact that he finished a very telling seven (7) lengths in front of the highly heralded Sanford winner makes me reinforce the good valuation about his talent.
That fact along with the Champagne being only Commanderperfomance’s second race makes me presume that the gray is a very robust prospect indeed… as you said, this exercise here is about following young horses with foreseen potential upside… and they usually evolve at different pace to their 3-year-old form as well.
Let’s see what happens in the BC Juvenile to have better idea of their future.
Why is Median Spirit considered by so many as a super fast colt, capable of putting pressure on Knicks Go on the lead in the BCC? Why is the Bob Baffert colt even considers a tenacious leader?
I contend Medina Spirit isn’t a fast horse. The cold facts indicate same. I am of the opinion he was enhanced for the KD.
Which fast horse has the following on its resume:
Bob Lewis- won by a NK fighting off HRC and Roman Centurian. One opponent was returning from 3 months off and the other a last out MSW winner.
San Felipe – Beaten by 8L by an opponent that was never off the bridle. Which displayed reas speed?
SA Derby – Beaten 4 1/4L by an opponent that was making its dirt debut. It wasn’t even close as the winner finished ahead by a furlong in the gallop out…
Preakness – beaten by 5 1/2L by Rombauer. Got into a speed duel a with real speed horse and after 8F in 1:34+ folded like dead bird.
Shared Belief – Beat Rocky Your world by 1 1/4L whilst fully extended . RYW was beaten a combined 42L in the KD & Belmont.
Awesome Again – Defeated a group of slow older opponents. If he were not in the race the 54/1 runner-up would have emerge the winner in a big upset.
If those that have been following this game for a long time can objectively evaluate the above cold facts and conclude that MS is a super fast colt. Then I will have to seriously reassess what obtains as fast.
Bob Baffert knows he has only one chance to win and that is on the lead and no one is better at getting a horse to the lead than Baffert. Also I have never seen anyone say he was a super fast horse, as you mistakenly claim, but he has proven to be tough to get by in the stretch. I wouldnt play him in the Classic, but I’m not going dismiss him and not going to knock him as you always enjoy doing. Still waiting to hear who you do like…if anyone.
I’ll be routing for Kenny McPeek and Rattle N Roll. McPeek certainly is due his Derby. I loved Tejano Run in the 95 Derby and Thunder Gulch. I seam to remember they were the only 2 Dual Qualifiers when we still worked the Dosage angle. Let’s not forget Repent 10 starts with 5-3-1 a damn good horse. This railbird will be routing for Kenny I hope the Racing Gods will be too.
Who can forget the improbable Sarava?
And Golden Ticket in the Travers !!!!!
Who he also picked out at the sale.
Early 2022 KD odds posted at William Hill (LV)
Corniche, 15-1, (forget it)
Rattle N Roll, 55-1 (after he wins the BC Juvenile, those odds will drop like a ton of bricks)
Oviatt Class, 75-1 (a lot of talk about this colt here, and other sites as well)
Gunite, 75-1 (after winning the Hopeful in impressive fashion, didn’t replicate that performance in the Champagne. Could have more upside moving forward)
There are 144 horses listed on the early 2022 odds.
Yeah…15-1 in October on any horse for the Derby is absurd.
Has this been rescinded?
“Churchill Downs Incorporated (“CDI”) announced today the suspension of Bob Baffert for two years effective immediately through the conclusion of the 2023 Spring Meet at Churchill Downs Racetrack. The suspension prohibits Baffert, or any trainer directly or indirectly employed by Bob Baffert Racing Stables, from entering horses in races or applying for stall occupancy at all CDI-owned racetracks.”
Nope. Not yet.
Thanks Steve. Perhaps, CDI are waiting to see how things play out at the Breeders’ Cup then offer the same surveillance criteria as a means of allowing the Baffert runners to compete in the Kentucky Derby?
I think they are waiting to see how things play out in New York….
Zandon -‘s sire Upstart has 3 starters in the 8th race at Parx. One is trained by Todd Pletcher. Is an Upstart TRI in order.
Does Pletcher debut good ones at Parx?? Result says…no.
Smarty Jones might quibble with you. You just never know.
Pletcher, Davids…Pletcher! But if Smarty quibbled with me, I’d be thrilled!
Smarty Jones is more a kibbitzer than a quibbler, isn’t he?
I don’t know him well enough to say. But if he kibbitzed with me, I’d be MORE than thrilled.
Doug O’Neill has two I love in the Breeders Cup—Hot Rod Charlie—who will be third choice, maybe fourth choice—and I think he is the horse to beat—which is another way of saying the most likely to finish in the exacta…..I am salivating over Mackinnon! His low Beyers from his three mile races–all wins— only can help the price—this guy has a kick! American Pharoah, out of a Scat Daddy mare he has breeding—Doug is giddy about him, so am I. .
HOT ROD CHARLIE
“I think he is the horse to beat”
Matt,
You do realize HRC has been beaten in 7 of his 11 starts. he isn’t difficult to beat. He defeated Midnight Bourbon last out. Midnight Bourbon has ben beaten in 10 of his 12 starts.
Kincks Go and Art Collector have won their last 3 starts. In combination they have recorded 17 wins and both are in top form.
There is a difference between the one to beat and having a good and/or outside chance.
Hot Rod ran great in the Derby…followed that with a tremendous Belmont effort, and two impressive wins—and is training well….’horse to beat” means he is the horse that you will need to beat to win the race–that is my opinion! Knicks Go has had lonely leads, in small fields, and now has to try a tenth furlong….Art Collector will need to stalk–I’m not sure he’s good enough, but easy leads in small fields can make horses look better than they really are—I think the three year olds are better then their elders, this year.
Hey guys: I’m sticking with the horse that’s brung it every race, including the Kentucky Derby, which he didn’t win: Essential Quality. My longshot pick is Medina Spirit, who beat him.
Godolphin thinks EQ will win. That’s why they’re not sending Maxfield to the Classic. 🙂
Hmmm. They could be right, or they could be wrong! With luck, he’ll go off at 3 to 1 or better. Now to figure the exacta . . .
I have a feeling Essential Quality will be the favorite. 2-1.
Good points, Matthew!
I appreciate the clarification of the context in which ‘hose to beat’ was used. But I still do not agree to its reference to HRC.
Essential Quality has only been beaten once in 9 starts and that was by a mere 1L, after experiencing a less than ideal trip. He holds a 2 to 1 record over HRC in their 3 meetings. On the one occasion that HRC finished ahead, he wasn’t the winner as both were beaten. In EQ’s 2 win over HRC he was the winner, claiming victory over HRC in the final furlong each time. Of the likely 3YOs in the yet to be finalized field, EQ would be the horse to beat
ART COLLECTOR
“Art Collector will need to stalk”
The subject 4YO has not been given credit for its versatility. AC broke his maiden on turf before switching to dirt. Despite recording 4 of his 8 victories on the lead. Art Collector is not a genuine leader. He only ends up on the leads when his cruising speed is the highest in the field.
He didn’t lead in the B/Grass and Charles Town Classic but was no worst than 3rd. He was on the lead in the Ellis Park Derby, Alydar & Woodward because he possessed the highest cruising of all entrants. His 3rd career win recoded at CD was a blow out on the lead as he was the best in the field.
Before appearing on radar. AC broke his maiden tracking the leaders and assuming the lead early and won with authority. In his 2nd win he was way back early and closed 6L off the pace win going away by 2 1/2L.
Art Collector’s resume reflects he’s a versatile sort. He can stalk , close form far of the pace and lead. He is more effective stalking. He has the 2nd highest cruising speed iof the probable for the race.
I expect Mott to have the Bernadine 4YO sharp as knife for the BCC. If the rider on Knicks Go attempts slowing the pace .AC natural cruising speed will take him to the lead. But as previously stated he is best when just off the leaders. He has the requisite acceleration to engage and go resolute leaders.
The BCC has been won by more 4YOs then any other agegroup. AC is the best of the 4YOs still in training.
do you realize ?……how you never pick a winner?…..why are you giving advice?
Disgraceful when referring to Maxfield as a ‘rat’. That name could be assigned to you,but would be an insult to rats in general.
Zandon definitely seems like one to keep an eye on. I’ll certainly be watching the Nashua, and then it will be telling to see where Chad Brown keeps Zandon for the winter. If he takes him to Fla., that’s a good sign that he’s on Chad’s “A” Team. It could only be a better story if Brereton Jones had kept the horse instead of selling him, and Larry Jones trained him. I’d love to see Larry win the Derby, after all his success in the Oaks. Such a nice guy.
Yes, a good sign if he winters in Florida. Brown’s best Derby horse was Good Magic, who finished second to the eventual TC winner. GM ran in the FOY before winning the Blue Grass.
Assuming all is well with Maxfield his removal from BCC consideration is disappointing. His runner up finishes to Knicks Go and Art Collector shouldn’t be viewed that he was incapable of beating both in the BCC. The pace scenario will be totally different with likely 3 entrants on the headline. To win you have to be in it.
Many BCC winners entered with less than appealing last 3 starts and exited the winner at long odds. See below:
Drosselmeyer won 1 of his last 3 starts preceding the BCC. He won the BCC @14/1
Pleasantly Perfect won 1 of his last 3 starts preceding the BCC. He won the BCC @14/1
Volponi won 1 of his last 5 starts preceding the BCC. He won the BCC @43/1
Cat Thief won 1 of his last 4 starts preceding the BCC. He won the BCC @19/1
Alphabet Soup won 1 of his last 3 starts preceding the BCC. He won the BCC @19/1
Maxfield has won 1 of his last 3 starts. He would have left the gates at an attractive price. He has a record of winning when not well fancied – MSW debut won at 10/1; Keeneland Breeders Futurity won at 6/1.
Agree! More than most years….big races this year have been dominated by front runner’s, but the Classic won’t be a five horse field, with the lead just handed out—Maxfield would have been a player in there, even though he might be more of a middle distance horse….I like Hot Rod Charlie and Essential Quality, a possible three year old sweep—-giving Idol a shot, saw him up close and he was not in top shape, he had a tummy….he is a true 10 furlong horse.
I wish that Idol had another prep before the BCC. It’s a lot to ask of a horse to win the Classic in the second race after a long layoff. And the first race after the layoff didn’t instill confidence.
I was present for the Awesome Again, have been a big fan of Express Train, who did go from 6th to 3rd, in the AA, over a surface that nobody made up ground on …3 Del Mar wins, probably the most of any in the race…..after Essential and Hot Rod, kinda open to me—3rd place would be a big haul, for Shirreffs,……could also help me to make a big haul…..tri/super/underneath…
Yes…….a very good eye Steve has……i judge horses talent, and i am often surprised how often i agree with many…..i love Command performance……
off topic……funny is funny…..i was mocked because i write standup comedy…..as a hobby…..i KNOW funny…….
here is an example of my humor…….replying to a bizarre post on HRN
GaryTasich • an hour ago • edited
Protocols should be the same for all trainers and people in glass houses shouldn’t throw stones. singling out Bob Baffert is like singling out the Jews in 1930s Germany.
provet4 GaryTasich • a few seconds ago
Shindler’s VET LIST?…………………….
Revisit the Champagne and focus on Commandperformance stride execution rate. The turn over rate isn’t very quick. Additionally, he doesn’t travel very well. He was hard ridden from a long way out on the back stretch to get into to contention.
What was viewed as closing late was actually late occupation of real estate long vacated by the leader. The colt has grinding running style. This makes him vulnerable to high cruisers who can accelerate and sustain to the line.
you are ridiculous
Perhaps mocked for relentless pursuit of constantly running point for your master on another site.
Disgusting
Agreed!
ZANDON -MY TAKE
I made a trifactor wager in the race won by the subject colt but was unable to cash as the 3rd choice finished 4th. I really didn’t take serious note of the colt’s performance as my focus was elsewhere. Since he has been featured, I revisited his race and I am on the fence as to whether he is a KD Prospect. But as usual I will defer to my more knowledgeable in this space.
The colt dam line has to be considered weak. If the records accessed are correct, the colt’ first and 2nd dam made a combined total of 1 start. Creative Cause as a broodmare sire is interesting. The stallion has been a disappointment to date. But probably like many accomplished race horses, his success may be as a broodmare sire ala. Bernardini/Secretariat
His sire Upstart is doing well with his 2021, 2YO crop. Five have finished in the top 3 in listed stakes. However, his entrant in the G1 Claiborne Breeders Futurity was disappointing. Don’t Wait Up was the 2nd choice in the betting. He previously defeated Commandperformance who subsequently finished the runner up in the G1 Champagne. Don’t Wait Up finished last beaten by 33 1/2L.
Don’t Wait Up like Zandon broke his maiden over 6F in 1:10+. His failure in his G1 test means nothing to the prospect of Zandon as they are different horses. He is probably a sprinter which wouldn’t be surprising. Upstart Stallion Register doesn’t reflect a lot of his 2YO routing.
Upstart’s best progeny appears to be Masqueparade the recent 3rd place finisher in the Jim Dandy. The stallion has therefore proven he can sire quality runners.
Will Zadon feature in the KD? Who knows! California Chrome has put to rest the the notion that pedigree influences performance.
Steve: Another great column to stoke the embers of Derby fever 2022! I’m glad to hear Rattle N Roll is pointing toward the BC Juvenile; I had read McPeek was on the fence about that.
That race is shaping up as a good one. Even though Jack Christopher is most likely to win on paper, I personally like Corniche. There is something about him that reminds me of Buckpasser — not physically, or in running style — but in terms of the way he puts his head down and gets to the finish line first.
I’m hoping Zandon runs well in the Nashua, although THAT is definitely a race that has not had much influence on the Triple Crown Trial in recent years. Really looking forward to any Breeders’ Cup columns you have in the works.
Thanks. I’m still looking at RNR as a Derby horse, not a BC horse. I just hope he didnt run too fast a Thoro=Graph number. As I said he ran faster than Jack Christopher, who to me is not bred for 1 1/4 miles. But he sure is fast. You know Corniche will be tough in California.
Steve, both of your “sleepers” have immense promise. You have, as they say, a good eye….more likely two good eyes in your case. I need to tell you that I’ve put my entire life savings in Derby future bets on both colts. Well, nearly my entire life savings. I’ve set aside enough to purchase my favorite Belgian beer for at least 10 years. Keep ’em coming. Your columns add to the excitement of the Derby trail.
I would take that money and put it all into the beer. I cant be responsible for you losing your life savings. If you have a wife she would kill me…and you. I wont know if I have a good eye until next May, but so far so good.
But if I WIN….
I get a commission, right?
Of course! Three of your sleepers. How can I lose?
Hey Eddie,how’s it going?
Hey, Mike. Livin’ the dream!
Great to hear!
RED KNOBS:
The subject Union Rag colt captured my attention with his 3rd place performance in the Iroquois and given its pedigree, I am of the opinion he could emerge KD prospect. Should the 3rd place finish in the Iroquois be considered under the radar ? I contend yes. He was under the radar entering the Iroquois as denoted by his 29/1 post time odds. It’s highly unlikely that he exited with a status changed.
He broke his maiden in his 2nd start in a MSW over 8F at Ellis Park by 61/2L. He was no further than 3L off the pace and unleashed a powerful run in the lane. In the Iroquois he broke slowly and raced ahead of one opponent some 9L off the pace. A 5W move on the final turn and a steady rally in the lane was not enough to reel in the 1st & 2nd passed the post. He finished 3rd by 1L.
This colt has an interesting dam line. His dam sire is the Australian iron horse Lanhro. His 35 starts and 26 wins is rarely the kind of resume associated with a modern day stallion. What is also rare is the fact that Red Kbobs dam sire Lanhro and his grand dam sire sire Octagnal both won 10 Group 1s. Lanhro was a very versatile turf performer winning from 51/2F to 10F. Can this mega turf champion emerge as a broodmare sire of classic dirt horses? Let’s see.
Lanhro is the sire of Gronkowski who was runner up to Justify in the Belmont and Thunder Snow in the Dubai World Cup. The performances of Gronkowski indicates that Lanhro’s prospects of being a useful broodmare sire of dirt horses shouldn’t be dismissed. But more importantly Labhro should contribute toughness to his mares. A horse does possess a record of 35 starts and 26 wins if it isn’t tough. His mares have produced 3 stakes winner in Australia.
Two entrant from Iroquois are listed as probable for the BCJ. It’s surprising Red Knobs isn’t another. He has recorded 3 works since the Iroquois and this signifies he is none the worst for the effort.
It is unlikely that trainer Dale Romans will win the KD with an entrant favored in the betting. It wouldn’t be consistent with his status as a giant killer. Consequently, an under the radar KD prospect from his barn is worth following. Particularly if said prospect has Lanhro as broodmare and Sir Ivor on both sides of its pedigree.
NB: Not even the great American Pharoah could have prevented one of Dale Romans’ giant killing acts.
I was very tempted to delete your post because Red Knobs is on my short list for the next upcoming sleeper column, Lol. I also was impressed with him and love his pedigree. You neglected to talk about his female family other than Lonhro but the bottom side is of much more interest, which I will get into if I wind doing a column on him, which likely would have to be my next one if I’m going to beat his next start, which I would think would be the Ky. Jockey Club Stakes. But well done in spotting him.
Mr. Haskin as a sidebar, discovered from Shadwell Invasor won’t return this year. Kent Barnes, couple years back emailed vids of Invasor,etc and spoke with him last year. Very disappointing,since promised a private showing again. Saw him dozen years ago three times.
Kent Barnes spoke with who last year? That would be a bummer. hopefully one day they’ll send him to Old Friends.
Kent Barnes spoke with me last year, At that time plans were for Invasor coming back in December.
He certainly belongs at Old FRIIENDS or The Hall of Champions Barn at Kentucky Horse Park. I am biased that’s for sure , I did have a great ride with him , but to me he was a horse that overcame his jockeys mistakes. How many can do that!
Agreed Derek! When speaking other week w/ Shadwell,inforned Kent is no longer with them and Invasor wouldn’t return this winter as planned. I’ve known Michael at OF for over 13yrs and heard cool stories regarding movie stars he knew from years ago.
In an article I read, dated 16 September, 2021, they stated that: “Lonhro mares have produced 25 stakes-winners to date in total and he runs at 64% winners to runners as a broodmare sire”.
But almost all in your neck of the woods.
Yes, sceptre, the Sir Tristram influence is still quite dominant here. Living in Melbourne over the past year or so and following the racing more intensely it’s been fascinating going over the Star Kingdom, Better Boy, Showdown, Sir Tristram, Danehill influences here.
Hopefully, Frosted ‘could’ anchor Tapit as an influence here.
The 3 year old Ingratiating (Frosted- Obsequious, by Lonhro) put in an excellent performance coming third in the Group 1 Manikato Stakes weight for age at Moonee Valley on Friday.
Joseph O’Brien’s State of Rest won a controversial Cox Plate today – 20 minutes before the stewards decided on the winner.
Good read. I’m a big fan of Rattle and Roll . Connect is going to be a really good sire .
I’m also a fan of RR, just not trainer.
Good read. I’m a big fan of Rattle and Roll
Sanding was off the radar for me, seemed all eyes are in Hack Christopher in the Brown Barn. Rattle and Roll seems like he has the right stuff, but it’s early still ( lol) but he sure us pretty to look at and it would be really something for Airdrie to get a winner with Zandon
Each year it is highlighted that certain Derby points races for both 2YOs & 3 YOs, rarely produce the winner of the KD. One such race is the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity.
It was 38 years ago that Swale won the Keeneland Breeders’ Futurity and went on to win the KD. It wouldn’t be a stretch to conclude that the Keeneland Breeder Futurity/KD double has proven to be elusive.
Breeder Futurity major winning trainers:
Wayne Lukas – 5 winners none went on to win the KD.
Dale Romans – 4 winners none went on to win the KD
Todd Pletcher – 2 winners none went on to win the KD
Bob Baffert – 2 winners none went on to win the KD
K Mc Peek – 2 winners before 2021. none went on to win the KD
Kenny Mc Peek has now saddled his 3rd Breeders’ Futurity winner. Of the trainers with multiple winners, he has recorded the best finishes in the KD. His Tejano Run and Noble’s Promise finished 2nd and 5th respectively. Tejano Run won the Breeders’ Futurity by an easy 3L. Noble Promise won by a hard fought 1/2L.
Both colts were more accomplished than Rattle and Roll heading into the Futurity. Tejano Run won a G3 stakes and Noble’s Promise a listed stakes. Both colts returned to contest the BCJ and both finished 3rd. Each contested three Derby Preps and with neither recording a victory.
Both Kenny Mc Peek’s more accomplished Futurity winners ran well in the KD but were not good enough to win. Swale won the Saratoga Special before winning the Futurity. He was likewise more accomplished than Rattle and Roll ahead of the
race.
Can a last out MSW of the Futurity emerge the winner of the 2022 KD? Maxfield and Essential Quality won the Futurity after MSW victories. A KD victory proved elusive for the two talented colts for different reasons. Should Rattle and Roll be considered as talented as both?
Not my call!
Good Evening Coldfacts
With all due respect, past history is not always indicative of future results (as they say in the stock trading business).
To state, “both colts were more accomplished than Rattle N Roll heading into the Futurity”, is debatable. Last year’s winner of the Breeders’ Futurity, Essential Quality, was the 3-1 favorite in the KD, and probably would have won it had it not be for that bad start, bumping around with RYW (my Derby pick). If you haven’t had a chance to review the video replay of Rattle N Roll’s closing kick, in winning the Breeders’ Futurity by 4 1/2 lengths, you might want to check it out.
Good luck with Tough To Tame and Oviatt Class.
Rattle N’Roll is very impressive and there is something about the look of him that the great ones have. 2022 is going to be an exciting year with the new kids on the block. Thanks for the heads up on Zandon, who I knew nothing about. You always come up with great ideas for articles.
Thanks Paula. I try. Lol
Watched both races with these colts and was impressed by their performances. Have 11/7 bookmarked to watch Zandon race again.
Hi Steve
I never get tired of reading your back stories, they always peak my interest. I liked Classic Causeway going into the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity, but Rattle N Roll proved he was much the best with that big closing effort. As it is in most years, the BC Juvenile matches up the best in the East vs best in the West, this year appears to be no different. As it stands now, Rattle N Roll appears to be the best 2 yr. old colt in the East, and Corniche appears to be the best in the West.
One additional thought regarding Rattle N Roll’s pedigree, his sire line leads directly to the Mr. Prospector sire line, and his broodmare sire line leads directly to Northern Dancer. That breeding cross has produced 19 winners of Triple Crown races.
On a side note, if I’m not mistaken, Eight Belles was the last filly to run in the Kentucky Derby. Has the time come for another filly to take on the boys? If Echo Zulu blows away the BC Juvenile Fillies, don’t be surprised if we start hearing talk in that regard. BTW, Echo Zulu is bred from Mr. Prospector/Northern Dancer cross, same as Rattle N Roll.
Any thoughts on Echo Zulu?
Thanks Steve
I really liked what I saw with Echo Zulu. Some good fillies coming up. I thought Letruska might
take on the boys for a while but not now. I think staying with the distaff in the BC is the right thing to
do.
She has looked awesome in 3 starts. There are several others who look brilliant. If they want to point for the Derby they’ll have to run vs boys before that to get points. No Derby points for filly races.
Thanks for the reply Steve
Yes indeed, she’ll have to take on the boys at some point. There will be plenty of points in up coming races that the connections can point her to. Echo Zulu could be a very special filly moving forward. We’ll see how she performs in the BC Juvenile Fillies, and go from there.
Always fun looking forward to next years Derby. Still very early, not sure when the first Future Books come out. Thanx for all you do
Zandon, really impressed prior to and during the race. A real racehorse. I thought the kickback was going to stop him but he persevered and when daylight came he shot through it. Hopefully, the colt will get accustomed to the kickback but they might try the turf to see how that turns out.
With a few more stakes winners Upstart should really take off, perhaps Zandon is the one. Let’s hope Zandon keeps improving and makes a noise next year. Beautiful type.
Agreed. Masqueparade also spoke very well for Upstart. Upstart is doing very well by the numbers, compared to the other second crop sires, especially considering his small book size. Given the late-developing tendencies of the tribe, now seems about when his get are most likely to begin coming to hand.
It may gratify to know that, after our ultimate exchange, I found God of Love impressive enough in the Cup and Saucer Stakes to honor him elsewhere with the moniker “monster.” It was a very inexperienced field, and after the recent pathos of Happy Happy B., who had suffered a pretty big hit out of the gate in his prior race, my heart skipped a beat when God of Love sideswiped Hidden Honor. I don’t disagree with the steward’s decision to let the results stand, but I will be concerned that HH may have been over-stressed on his planted leg until he makes it back to the track and some time has passed. Fast Feet also made a very good impression in the Cup and Saucer. (Some of the young Tourists are showing up with very mature-looking bone.)
Yes, God of Love may have been fortunate to keep the win but you have to give inexperienced runners some latitude. God of Love’s determination was impressive though. Let’s hope he keeps improving.
Hello Steve, honestly I have not paid attention to any of the Derby 2022 hopefuls. Alas, I am exposing my ignorance regarding this. However, I did love reading this blog and your assessments. You so eloquently state things and I think you could convince me to jump off a bridge, ha ha.
I am gearing up for another fantastic Derby Dozen season.
Thank you Deacon. Just trying to have some fun finding these sleepers. THere is so much about racing that isnt as much fun anymore. I thought I got off to a good start with Commanperformance. Just out of curiosity are there any big bridges near you in case I get in an impish mood.
We got a few bridges in rural Southern Oregon. The Rogue River is here in my neck of the woods.
Slamming against the rocks or the raging water would most likely do someone in. 🙂
Hope you and your family are well, Deacon.