Taiba’s Climb to Stardom Has Begun
With his stunning victory over a top-class field in Saturday’s Grade 1 Pennsylvania Derby, it looks as if the much heralded Taiba finally is ready to launch his career to the highest of heights with a solid enough foundation under him.~ Steve Haskin
Taiba’s Climb to Stardom Has Begun
By Steve Haskin
Did you ever get the feeling you are on a journey and everything seems to be falling into place and the farther you get the clearer the picture around you gets? But in the back of your mind there is something lurking behind you just waiting to disrupt the clarity of that picture.
Of course in this space, journeys and picture clarity often refer to the Kentucky Derby trail, which then expand to the Triple Crown trail, then to the road to the Travers Stakes, and finally to the 3-year-old championship.
In 2022, we began the journey with a deep and seemingly talented group of 3-year-olds who spent the winter sorting themselves out only to have a megaton bomb land on Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May in the form of an 80-1 longshot named Rich Strike, throwing everything into disarray and leaving the Derby trail in shambles.
That continued when the Preakness winner Early Voting failed to duplicate that form, Belmont Stakes winner Mo Donegal was injured and retired, and the 23-length Dwyer winner Charge It was sidelined with a foot injury. Cyberknife looked like an improving horse winning the Haskell Invitational by a head, but the picture finally became clear when the Louisiana Derby winner and hard luck Kentucky Derby and Preakness runner-up Epicenter asserted his superiority by winning the Jim Dandy and Travers, easily defeating Cyberknife in the latter. Finally we had a clear-cut leader of the division and a sophomore threat for the Breeders’ Cup Classic.
But since the spring, you just had the nagging feeling that the division was not going to become clear until a late-developing lightly raced colt named Taiba caught up with the others. So he just lurked behind the pack all through the late spring and summer, popping up occasionally just to take another step forward and let everyone know he was still around and a force to be reckoned with once he found some stability and got the experience he badly needed. You just got that feeling he was going to storm onto the scene by late summer or early fall, so in the meantime you praised the consistent, hard-knocking Epicenter, who had vaulted to the top of the division, but with one eye on that brilliant chestnut who was biding his time traveling around the country, while popping up sporadically.
Following his breakout performance in Saturday’s Pennsylvania Derby it is time to take a look at the exceptional, odd, and extremely brief career of Taiba. You knew right from the start this was a colt capable of making startling transformations. As a yearling, he sold for $140,000 at the Fasig-Tipton Kentucky October sale. So there was nothing to suggest he was anything special. But only five months later he sold at the Fasig-Tipton March 2-year-old sale for a whopping $1.7 million, which was more than $1.3 million over the average price of the sale.
Bob Baffert, who would eventually become his trainer, put it simply saying, “He worked fast and moved beautifully.”
Baffert was given the colt by Zedan Racing Stables, who also had Medina Spirit with Baffert, as well as Dubai World Cup winner Country Grammer in partnership.
Taiba didn’t make his career debut until this past March 5, winning by 7 ½ lengths in a swift 1:09 4/5 for the six furlongs. As Baffert said, “He was very immature as a 2-year-old, so we turned him out for a couple of months.”
In an extremely bold move, he jumped all the way up to a mile and an eighth in the Santa Anita Derby, while being turned over to trainer Tim Yakteen during Baffert’s suspension for a drug positive. In only his second career start he blew past his more accomplished stablemate Messier to win by 2 ¼ lengths in 1:48 2/5. It was an unprecedented move, winning a prestigious Grade 1 stakes in such impressive fashion with only one six-furlong race behind him and doing it with a new trainer.
As bold a move as that was, it was unheard of to then run him in the Kentucky Derby with only two career starts. Based on history and common sense he had no chance to win, and although he finished 12th you could not fault him in any way, especially since he was running three lengths off a suicidal pace of :45 1/5 for the half that claimed every horse running within six lengths of the lead and set it up for Rich Strike, who rallied from dead-last in the 20-horse field.
When Baffert’s suspension was over, Taiba was sent back to him, but he wouldn’t run again for another 2 ½ months. Still a work in progress with only three career starts and having to travel cross-country, he ran a super race in the Haskell to be beaten a head by Arkansas Derby winner Cyberknife, who got through on the rail to just nip him on the wire in a track-record 1:46 1/5 for the mile and an eighth.
By now, most people could only imagine what this colt would be capable of once he built some sort of racing foundation while continuing to progress and improve with every race. They found out two months later when he made his third trip back east last Saturday and drew off to a dominating three-length victory over the hard-knocking Zandon and Cyberknife in the Grade 1 Pennsylvania Derby. That prompted Baffert to call him “the best 3-year-old.”
It wasn’t the margin or the solid time of 1:48 3/5 that was most impressive. It was that big stride of his that gobbled up the ground and allowed him to blow by top-class horses in the stretch with little effort. It was clear the real Taiba finally was emerging.
He still has to get past Epicenter to earn the title of “best 3-year-old,” but for anyone who has seen him run and work and how lightly raced he still is with only five career starts, they are well aware it is going to take a super effort by Epicenter in the Breeders’ Cup Classic to hold on to the top spot in the division. Of course with older horses Flightline and Life is Good squaring off for Older Horse and Horse of the Year honors there should be two separate battles going on. Epicenter has the advantage of having already won at 1 ¼ miles impressively in the Travers and has also matured into a top quality horse, but with Taiba we’re talking about a colt with untapped talent who has turned in outstanding performances while still basically a baby who is still learning.
While Taiba has speed in his female family through the sprinter Phone Trick, he is by the white-hot sire Gun Runner, out of a mare by Flatter, a sire of top-class distance horses. Taiba’s fifth generation tail-female sire Grand Rights is a half-brother to French Derby winner Caracolero, whose dam Betty Lorraine is a half-sister to Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner Majestic Prince.
So, will Flightline still look like a freak against Life is Good? Is Taiba close enough to superstardom to wrest control of the 3-year-old division from Epicenter? Does he or Epicenter actually have a chance to be competitive against Flightline, something no horse has been able to do? It doesn’t seem to matter who else runs in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. The chances of someone beating all four of these horses seem extremely remote.
From what we’ve seen so far from Taiba and how much room there still is for improvement who knows what we’re going to see next year when he actually has some experience and a foundation under him. It certainly should be something to look forward to.
Photo courtesy of Sarah Andrew
Racing historian, author, and award-winning retired journalist for the Daily Racing Form and The Blood-Horse, Steve Haskin was inducted into the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame’s Media Roll of Honor in 2016. Known for his racing knowledge and insightful prose, he has been an exclusive contributor to Secretariat.com since 2020.
After the past weekend of racing it is clear to me there was one big winner !!!! …….. and I am not talking about a horse. The winner I am talking about is Bob Baffert. Not only did he win a lot of races …which he did but one race and win in particular might have cleared up strategy issues for him in the Breeder’s Cup Classic. The win I am referring to is DEFUNDED win in the AWESOME AGAIN STAKES. That was a “win and your in ” race and a ticket to the BCC and gives DEFUNDED a free ticket to the BCC. Now Baffert, after the race, was non committal on whether he will put him in that race but I think he would be making a BIG MISTAKE if he doesn’t and here are my reasons why. With DEFUNDED now in that race he has 3 contenders along TAIBA and COUNTRY GRAMMAR . Before Defunded was in the race Baffert had to be contemplating how to use Taiba and Country Grammar in the BCC. Would he have to use one of them (most probably TAIBA) to press the pace to keep it legit and sacrificing the chances of one of them. But now with DEFUNDED in it that kind thinking can be put to the side as Defunded is a true front runner who can either set the pace or push it. But you may say well we all know LIG is going for the lead and I say I still have my doubts that he will. We know Olympiad probably will and another possibility could be Hot Rod Charlie but with Defunded now in the race that should now take any doubts about the pace of the race. Baffert now can can have Taiba and Country Grammar forwardly placed but not having to worry about pushing the pace either
Lots of Stars in action next Saturday. Actually, all weekend. It will be a tough call to decide which track to play. I’ll give the edge to Keenland to get a feel for this year’s Breeders Cup track. If the New York races were at Belmont instead of Aqueduct, it would be a tougher call. No offense.
Bill Mott says that Warlike Goddess will be running in Saturday’s Joe Hirsch Turf Classic at Aqueduct. I’ve been told that Joel Rosario will be riding at Keenland. The question is Who rides Warlike Goddess and Gufo?
After Saturday, it will be time to start getting ready for the Breeders Cup. Watching replays and formulating strategies. Oh, I might find a bet here or there, but no full cards until November 4th and 5th. You’ve got to be disciplined to be a horse player.
Yes! Otherwise, like my brother says. .every race starts to look like the race before….I,too am waiting, till Breeders Cup weekend! Maybe a wager, or two, but….I gassed up, yesterday at the cheapest place in yhe city I live, in SoCal….$6.39…..nuff said!
Davids I was thrilled that she won. I had watched a video about her and a tour of the farm where she was born and researched her pedigree based on your recommendation.
These European, Australian and other internationally bred mares and fillies are just exceptional race horses.
That turf was horrible.
Not sure if I mentioned it on here but in one of the races a horse lost his footing, slipped and almost went down,
Congratulations on picking the winners!
Not sure if she will come for the Breeders Cup, have not heard. Sort of hope she does not. Our so called turf tracks are basically just grass growing out of dirt. (forget now which famous European trainer said that).
Just a happy camper today. Charlie and Rich Strike placing 1,2 and this lovely gray daughter by Frankel winning.
Yes Lynda, I’m pretty jolly myself you are sky high when the horses run the way you want them to. Ha ha Not sure if you know but ParisLongchamp actually improved their drainage etc a few years back it used to be a real bog with constant rain. Still a bit too soft for my liking.
I hope Alpinista goes to Siyouni, he adds that speed you need to accelerate in middle distance races. I can’t see Alpinista coming to the Breeders’ Cup but Sir Mark Prescott is had to read sometimes.
What a fabulous Prix De l’Arc de Triomphe. Alpinistra was fantastique. It’s not often that the three you like finish in the top four, especially under those type of conditions.
Then Man City 6 – Man United 3, day of glory. Ha ha
Davids The Arc remains the greatest race in the world! Horses who finish 8th place could win our Breeders Cup Turf….
That’s a fair statement, Matthew. The top middle distance horses in Europe are basically trained throughout the year with an attempt to win the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe in mind. No other race comes close to it’s prestige.
Great article on Taiba. You put into words my thoughts exactly. It will be interesting to see how the 3 year old division plays out. They all appear to be running for second money if Flightline shows up. But you never know in horseracing.
Lots of good performances yesterday….I thought Blazing Sevens stood out! Outside, early…came inside then hit a seam and waited, on the turn, in a quagmire….then comes outside, and does not lug in, as so many closers do….a big, long colt who screams two turns! Not sure if he can catch Cave Rock, or some other ones of Bob’s….I like his chances, as they go longer..like 10 furlongs!
Last year, Tarnawa ran a very hard race in The Arc to finish 2nd. She followed that up with a dull effort in the Breeders Cup Turf. I liked Vadeni in today’s Arc because I saw that he had a troubled trip in his last race. But, he ran very hard today to finish 2nd and I wonder if he might also run a dull race if he shows up at Keenland for the BC Turf? Listening to the European commentators for The Arc, I heard things like “it’s wide open” and “no superstars this year”. I’m thinking that maybe Warlike Goddess could have a real chance if trainer Bill Mott does run her in the mile and a half BC Turf. Bill Mott is on record as saying that he prefers the mile and a half for her instead of the BC F&M Turf which I think is a mile and three-eighths this year. I think that she is America’s best turf horse and a mare beat all those boys in The Arc today.
A novelty for us in the Americas…The Platinum Queen a 2-year-old filly wins the 5 furlongs of the Prix de L’Abbaye at Longchamp against older open company. It was the first time since 1978. It was Sigy the only 2-y-old to achieve the feat of defeating older horses ridden by the famous Freddy Head in that famous sprint Stakes.
A superb ride by female Jockey Hollie Doyle And Trainer Richard Fahey is in the history books for this achievement with The Platinum Queen (Cotai Glory (GB) [Exceed and Excel (AUS)]- Thrilled (IRE) by Kodiac (GB)).
Thank you for sharing Nelson.
Have not had a chance to get all the results and watch all of the replays.
Will for sure look for this one.
HRC came out if race great. Watched video of him from this morning. Sassy and full of energy.
Doug O’Neil is a class act. Watched interview with him after the race.
Gave credit to everyone who helped get Charlie this far and he praised Rich Strike.
He is very realistic about the Classic but feels that HRC can be in the money at the finish.
I’d hate to see him battling ten lengths behind, but Hot Rod Charlie pretty much runs the same race, time after time—he gives his all..
Hot Rod Charlie is a good race horse. Will he ever make it to the Hall of Fame, probably not. But he will be remembered for his consistency and as you say, giving his all. Typically he bounces back quickly after each race. I do not recall any injuries or set backs. He is just a solid horse xnd we fans love him to pieces.
18 Starts, 5 Wins, 6 Places, 3 Shows Career Earnings: $5,856,720
Mr O’Neil and the ownership do not duck any race or any horse. If Charlie is ready he races. He just runs his race which usually puts him in the money.
When Mr O’Neil was asked if he had any concerns about a sloppy track at Keenland, he said no, that Charlie has traveled to different race tracks and under varying conditions.
Doubt very seriously if is the only one ten lengths behind Flightline in the Classic, LOL.
Five big Stakes races at Keenland next Saturday and the weather looks pretty good a week out.
Alpinesta wins the Arc. Congratulations! Was hoping she would win.
The 5 year old mare is the daughter of Frankel.
Spelling correction: Alpinista.
Davids, since you live in Australia you might know about this little mare.
Her name is Mouse Almighty. She is a 13H Thoroughbred and won a race at the Moonee Valley race track on the 30th. She seems to have quite a following in Australia.
She is by and out of regular size Thoroughbreds.
Mouse Almighty is so small that I could not see her head in the pack as the race was being called.
What is a Wagga Wagga hobby horse trainer and owner.
I just thought it was a hoot.
Hi Lynda, yes there was a minor story about Mouse Almighty in the local tabloid newspaper here in Melbourne. A friend mentioned it to me. Mouse Almighty won the Resolve Environmental Handicap which is a minor race worth AUS$60,000 at 1,000m.
Wagga Wagga is a country town in country NSW, halfway between Melbourne and Sydney. Hobby trainers, usually have 1 or 2 runners and seldom go to the track unless one of their horses are actually entered.
Australian racehorses in the 60s and early 70s were very diminutive due to the complete dominance of the Star Kingdom line and his sons. Star Kingdom was 15.1 hands.
Davids, thank you.
I learn something new all the time!
OK…my take on the two races today under discussion.
Life is Good won the race in a walkover or a paid work out or what ever in the slop as was expected. I think, however, one has to ask the question, “who did he beat?” Next , I read an interesting comment from an expert in a discussion group that I belong to that LIG was not slowing down in the stretch and the fractions were the same as earlier in the race. Now since I do not keep up with fractions, I have no idea if this person was correct or not.
I thought that the Lukas was a really good race. It showed that Rich Strike is not a one hit wonder. HRC proved that he can win a race, Not sure what Flavien said to him but whatever it was worked. As to how HRC comes out of the race I do not think that is a concern. Mr O’Neil has him do beautifully conditioned that Charlie has always come out of his races well. I was not there however but it did not look like he broke a heavy sweat or was breathing hard.
What does all mean for the Classic? Well if we are to believe a comment I read in the discussion group, Life is Good will win the Classic because he breaks better and faster than Flightline.
As to that ever important stud career that seems to take precedence over everything now, I do not think winning or losing the Classic will have any impact at all on either horse’s “stud career”. Both will be retiring at the end of the year and both already have their deals struck unless Hronis can make an offer to the other owners that they cannot refuse.
Also think that the way Life is Good won today (the visual ) that he will run in the Classic.
And finally, I think the Lukas was by far the better race. That is my kind of horse race.
Lynda, what Flightline does to his opponents in races are ‘walkovers’ or paid workouts. Anyone who thinks Life is Good won the Woodward Stakes in a walkover or a paid workout haven’t the slightest idea of their meaning. Life is Good just managed to beat Law Professor by 1 1/4 lengths.
Ortiz Jr was not sitting chilly on Life is Good to win the Woodward Stakes. Lol. Law Professor has won a Grade 3 mile race and was second to Express Train in the Grade 2 San Pasqual.
Express Train came in 4th, some 7 lengths behind Defunded in today’s Grade 1 Awesome Again Stakes. Hot Rod Charlie won’t have any problems running out 10f in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. There’s some comparisons.
I am guessing that the media and those who comment in FB groups used these terms before and after the race because of the field size and the “quality” of the entries.
I see and understand your point, however.
Only watched the race replay one time. Have read comments from others who are far more knowledgeable that I am say the s a me as you. Have also read comments from fans of LIG that his splits were excellent and he gets a better start put of the gate than Flightline and he should have no problems winning the Classic.
Have no read what his speed figure was. I am keeping up with speed figures now though I still do not understand how the numbers are arrived at. LOL, math was not my strong suit in high school or college. My teachers and professors were befuddled how a student could excel in the sciences but struggle with mathematics. My Mom tripped on a street curb on her stomach when she was 8 months pregnant with me. I always blame that misstep while wearing high heels on my slightly dysfunctional brain.
On another note I read that Country Grammar lost his race. Have not watched it.
As my Mom used to say it (the Classic) will all come out in the wash.
Forbidden Kingdom lost in his comeback bid… Made it to the top of the stretch and then gave up the ghost and finished 2nd to last. Got cooked on fast early fractions. Mandela might have been asking too much too early. Would look for an OC at about 1 1/16 miles. Get his confidence back.
Tyler’s Tribe made it 5 wins in row, winning the 6 furlong Iowa Cradle Stakes in a good time of 1:09.74 by 6 open lengths.
This 2yr. old gelding shows impressive potential moving forward.
The Speaker’s Corner that we saw today and in his previous race at Del Mar looks nothing like the Speaker’s Corner that we saw earlier in the season. Those losses to Life Is Good and Flightline might have “cooked” him for the year. Rest him up and start over with him next Spring. Bill Mott is a sharp guy. He doesn’t need me to tell him that.
After posting how much I thought Life Is Good might be underrated for the mile and a quarter of the BC Classic, I have to admit that I have my doubts after today. I ask myself: would you play Life Is Good in the Classic if Flightline doesn’t run in the race for some reason? I answered myself: “No!”. I’d have to try to beat that guy. While running 2nd to Flightline would certainly be no disgrace, what if Life Is Good fades to the back of the field at a mile and a quarter? That might screw up their breeding plans. At the risk of putting Steve Haskin to sleep if he reads this, I think they should go to the BC Mile. I know. Been there, done that. It would prove nothing. The other option would be………………….retirement. They sound like they are going to the Classic. I saw Elliot Walden say so on TV. But, let’s see on November 5th.
It was an “off” track, but Life Is Good had everything his own way after the scratch of Thomas Shelby. He had what they used to call in the Racing Digest, a “lone f trip”. When they got into the stretch, I expected Life Is Good to blast off or “re-break”. But, he had to work a little bit to hold off Law Professor.
One last thing about Life Is Good. If Hot Rod Charlie and Olympiad show up in the BC Classic, they will give him trouble. He’ll get no easy lead. If I’m looking for a horse to put in an exacta with Flightline, I would be looking for a closer like Epicenter, Rich Strike, or Happy Saver. Maybe Rich Strike doesn’t just like Churchill Downs. Maybe he likes Kentucky and the fresh air of the Bluegrass Country.
BTW, I heard on the Aqueduct broadcast today that Zandon will be shortening up to run in the Cigar Mile. Good idea IMO. Like I hear way too much these days, it’s a bad year to own a good horse.
Life is Good’s stud career is secure, for 4 years at least, but the Woodward win was simply awful and another furlong would only make it worse. I guess they’re playing the “anything can happen in a race” card.
It was in mud and on a slow track, or didn’t you notice? The sealing didn’t make it wet fast. The thick gobs of mud in the track slowed it down as did the standing water. He won, in a faster time than the Churchill race on a fast track.
Lol. If Life is Good impressed you, good luck to you. Bet your house on him in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.
One way Life Is Good is superior is in height. It looks like Flightline is a bit on the small size.
Congratulations to those of you that gave out Senor Buscador. Great job!
I’m still not giving up on Happy Saver. He got pinned in by Sonny Leon on Rich Strike. Nothing dirty about it. It was good solid race riding. Hall of Famer Johnny V came out on the wrong end of that one. Once Johnny V saw that he was beaten, he saved the horse for next time. I hope they run in the BC Classic even though they might be running for second place.
Yes Charlie YES!!!!.
I would like to officially nominate Rich Strike as the claim of this century.
Be tough to beat Lava Man he won 7 Gr1s at 10 furlongs, after getting claimed…but Rich Strike showed this crop is pretty decent! Hot Rod Charlie has been a forgotten horse, of sorts…..Life Is Good….IF Flightline were to get hurt and miss the Classic I would still bet against LIG…..
Mathew – “this century.”
My bad Matthew. I’m old. I assumed Lava Man ran in the 90’s. I’d like to officially re-nominate Rich Strike as the 2nd greatest claim of the century.
You can still watch Lava Man, Iif you go to Rosie’s at Clockers Corner ..he waits at the gap and ponies Doug’s horses into their daily gallops ..I think he’s 21….
Thanks Maththew. That’s awesome. I love info like that. I’ll be on the look out.
Not sure about claim of the century but at least in the running. But as I posted early I would put him in the BCC. Gutsy race by Hot Rod Charlie…. just hope it did not take too much out of him. Rich Strike should be OK because of his running style. In the BCC still would like to see him a little farther back in the beginning of the race. He definitely is a horse for the course though. As far as LIG’s race all I will say it that he won. Nothing to write home about.
Yes Matthew, never once have I thought Life is Good’s best distance was 10f. As you say, even if Flightline were to miss the Breeders’ Cup Classic I can see at least three that would pass him.
What three? Now that the other preps are done it doesn’t look that settled.
Let’s see Country Grammer and Hot Rod Charlie are two that ran right past Life is Good in the 10f Dubai World Cup. Epicenter and Taiba are much better at 10f than Life is Good. So there’s 4 for you just to start off with.
Life Is Good got a higher equibase speed figure than Country Grammer and Hot Rod Charlie yesterday, haven’t seen other figures. Country Grammer lost to a horse he finished ahead of before, I thought that couldn’t happen.
Color me happy that Rich Strike got 2nd.
Rich Strike proved his Derby win was not a fluke… or he really likes the Twin Spires arena.
BTW I remember how Sonny Leon said in an interview that he admired Tyler Gaffalione for being a very strong finisher. His his well-respected Tyler re-rallied brilliantly with Charlie despite Sonny bumping him a couple of times before the finish line.
Both horses should be in the BCC…
Agree Nelson. Both Charlie and Richie havesid their dues to be in the Classic.
Thought for a second Riche had it but Charlie dug in.
I am absolutely over the moon for borh and their connections.
HRC has now won 5.638 million. That is nothing to sneeze at.
I heard they might start disqualifying a horse, if the jockey uses the whip too much? DQ a horse cuz rider was trying to win? I hear they DID already, DQ a horse for 11 whips, if this starts occurring you could kiss this sport goodbye, it is wager-driven!
The Woodward is down to 4 horses with the scratch of Thomas Shelby. Two earlier races “off” the turf. The two turf Stakes races are apparently still on the green which is rated at “yielding” at this time. Lots of scratches. But, here’s the real bad news for the “bridge jumpers” out there, they have canceled Show-wagering for the Woodward. Nooooooooooooooooo!
I thought they would cancel PLACE wagering…..a few years ago there was a Quarter Horse named Moonist…..in a 10 horse Derby final there was win/place wagering, but no show bets…..a bridge jumper went heavy, on Moonist to place, I bet on Well and Good, win and place, he was 22-1. …Moonist broke LAST, Well and Good ran his eyeballs out, and nosed out a flying Moonist for 2nd ….and he paid $187 to place!
My brother said he paid $193…
Something you’ll probably see again…a horse gets beat 19 1/4 lengths and gets a 100 Beyer!..
(Never) see..
That crazy.
Shadow Dragon had trouble at start, Appearance wise gained a lot of ground in stretch for a win.
Have seen many of these type before, not not many did good.
Will not bet next race when the horse hopefully has more of a natural run.
Will then evaluate this horse, till then, nada.
Bill Dawson mentioned the 2yo Iowa bred Tyler’s Pride, and he suggests they try open company, after tomorrow’s race vs state breds, well he HAS run in open company, there’s a 5-1 horse going in the Champagne tom named Top Recruit…recently beat Curly Jack….Tyler’s Pride trounced him by 12 lengths, at 5 1/2 furlongs, after tomorrow…which will likely be another trouncing, vs Iowa breds Tyler’s Pride will be headed to Keeneland…
Before sending people on a wild goose chase, slow down and get the name right.
Tyler’s Tribe.
That EP race had a very low rating,Top Recruits next race was a had a equibase rating 28 points higher.
Typo,,,delete”was a”
Funny thing is…I originally posted Tyler’s Tribe! But the Racing Form headline on page 17 calls him Tyler’s Pride! I got it wrong/ as did DRF….
Tyler’s Tribe has Beyered 94….is fast….
Just for the record Matthew W, I stated that I would like to see Tyler’s Tribe pointed to an open stakes race at a “MAJOR TRACK”.
I doubt Prairie Meadows meets the crIterion of a MAJOR TRACK, which is where Tyler’s Tribe has won all his races.
I’m looking forward to see Tyler’s Tribe make it five wins in a row in the Iowa Cradle Stakes, which comes up in about in a half hour.
Hi Steve
Taiba reminds me of the brilliance that was Wajima. Do you feel this is a valid comparison? I realize Taiba was more precocious than Wajima but they both post-KY Derby in their 3-year-old seasons.
I also welcome thoughts by my fellow posters on this comparison.
I hope everyone is doing well – particularly those of you in Florida and the Carolinas.
greg (Fan of Damascus)
Greg, I can sort of see the comparison excep0t Taiba was good much earlier than Wajima and Wajima beat Foego twice, so Taiba will haave to beat one of the top two older horrses
Hi Greg,
I am not that familiar with Wajima’s races but, as Steve stated, a 3-year-old defeating older horses like the immortal Forego is remarkable. On the other hand, a 3-year-old Taiba winning a Grade one in his second start jumping from 6 furlong to 9 furlongs is perhaps something never seen before…
From the videos of the Travers and Marlboro I can see that Wajima and Taiba show comparable running styles…
There are some (amusing) similarities though; Wajima was a $600K-bargain (more than 3 million in money of the day) and Taiba is a 1.7million-dollar bargain. Both are sired by Champion stallions. Wajima was the last champion sired by Bold Ruler and Taiba belongs to the first crop of the record-setting sire Gun Runner.
Wajima was retired after his 3-year-old campaign and was syndicated for a record $7.2 million ($36 million in money of the day). Taiba will be running next year and I can imagine him doing as good as his breakthrough sire Gun Runner did as a 4-year-old… then his syndication could be better that that of Wajima…
Have a great week end !
I haven’t seen any talk about Saturday’s Grade 3 Ack Ack at Churchill. Speaker’s Corner tries to get back on track at 1-1 on the Morning Line after losing 3 in a row. It’s easy to excuse his losses to Flightline and Life Is Good, but that last loss at
Del Mar was not good. I know that Laurel River is an up and comer, but Speaker’s Corner looked nothing like he did earlier in the season as he dropped back to 4th. Did those losses to possibly the 2 best dirt horses in The U.S. break his heart? He drew the rail for the Ack Ack and inside speed at Churchill is very dangerous there. As much as I love Speaker’s Corner, I just have a feeling that he might need a break after the big races that he has run this year. On the other hand, Jockey Junior Alvarado makes the trip to Louisville. So, he must like his chances. Still, this could be a race to go looking for a better price. I don’t have a Form for the race, but Untreated, Fulsome, Silver Prospector, and Injunction catch my eye as possible upsetters.
Three Technique and Senor Buscador (at 12 to 1) will be swelling the exotics in the Ack Ack Stakes tomorrow…
Thanks. I’ll take a look at them.
I, too like Senor Buscador…
WOW, did anyone watch the video of Soumillion knocking another jockey out of the saddle?
Only got 60 days suspension and can still ride in the Arc.
No way should be riding the ARC!
If this disgrace of a jockey wants to compete in a sport where attempting killing someone is not a crime he should try mixed martial arts… I would like to see how the ruthless Jockey would like taking a couple of punches from Demetrious Johnson…
That was tough to watch. That should be at least a six-month suspension. It could have easily been a catastrophe.
Steve ESPECIALLY after hearing him say he watched the tape and realized …blah blah blah I too, watched the tape! He elbows him into the Turf, and can plainly see the riderless horse!
The Euro stewards are probably employed by NYRA…..
He is booked to ride Vandeni in the Arc. The horse is owned by the Agah Kahn.
Has since apologized and said he used “poor judgement”.
From my vantage point of the replay, looked to me as though it was intentional.
Granted things are not always as they seem but I think the penalty should have been more harsh and certainly a stiff fine based 0n what I saw.
It was a miracle they jockey was not seriously injured or killed. Being knocked off a horse at any speed is dangerous much less at the speed they were traveling. For her to fall off she had to have been hit hard.
He was seen walking fine to the medical van after his awful fall… but the pain in his knees and ankles and other parts of his body will be felt for many days. Jockey Rossa Ryan was very lucky escaping serious injury especially in his neck… as you said, could have been fatal.
Thank you Neldon. I am relieved he was able to walk to rhe ambulance on his own. Would guess that there were x-rays and scans to make sure there were no fractures, a concussion or brain bleeds. Very fortunate he did not fall off and into the path of another horse or horses. When I think about how bad this could of been, it scares me.
I’m bewildered by the leniency of the French stewards involved, if the jockey was a lesser light and wasn’t riding the Aga Khan’s colt in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe the sentence would have been much more severe. The stewards are there to make examples of those who flaunt the rules. Disgraceful.
Davids, please pardon me for saying this but I do not think the ownership of the horse, the horse or the next race he was scheduled to ride in should have factored into him being allowed to ride in the Arc. All I can say is I probably would have fired him on the spot even if that meant my horse not being in the Arc.
Lynda, you make a good point but you see this situation so many times and the jockey is always allowed to ride in the big race because all the work the trainer has made to prepare the horse could be compromised with no fault on they’re part by having to use a new rider.
Of course, a jockey could be injured the race before the Arc so there is that argument as well. Tough call.
Wow! That looks really bad. I can’t imagine any excuse for that kind of behavior.
Checking in from the South Pole (aka Athens). They do have internet here. Enjoy today’s races everybody!
Ha ha Athens, Greece? Or Athens, Georgia?
Good news for the racetracks in Florida and the horse farms around Tampa and Ocala, no significant flooding or damage.
Hey Davids…I checked out the horses you mentioned for the Arc.
And I stumbled across this website in the process.
Hope the website administration let’s it through.
Some very interesting stats.
See that Vandini goes back to Secretariat through Storm Cat.
Another one, sorry forgot the name but the filly whose name begins with an A goes back to Something Royal through Sir Gaylord.
Right now Aiden’s horse Luxembourg has best odds to win.
Just a shame that Baeed and Veery Elegant are not in the race.
Been going down the list that made the cut and saw that Mishriff is in.
Just for fun after the race I am going to compare the winner’s stats
https://sportslens.com/uk/news/prix-de-larc-de-triomphe-2022-arc-trends-guide-latest-betting/
Verry Elegant was the reason I was interested! I mean….US makes openings for the Derby…Dubai, and Japanese openings—France couldn’t allow the Aussie champ? Her latest race was pretty good, sheesh! They kicked themselves in the foot!
Do not know how their system works but evidently more horses are nominated or qualify than the track can accommodate. Baeed I think passed on running because of the soft turf.
I took was looking forward to seeing her in the race.
Lynda, I was tickled pink with the draw: Alpinista 6; Al Hakeem 4; and Valdeni 2. Perfect. It’s not often the draw plays into your hand. No excuses, now. I wish we were there, it’s my favorite day. The Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe means so much.
Davids, I botched the spelling of Valdeni for which I apologize.
Doubt I can watch live so will have to be content with a replay.
Good luck on your favorites to win the race and of course safe races to all.
I do not know enough about the entries to even attempt to pick a winner.
Still trying to get up to speed on the European races.
Usually have to research international sites.
Blood Horse has limited coverage and a few articles but other than that very little in the way of coverage here in the US.
So appreciate your time and patience as I try to navigate International racing.
Lynda, racingpost.com is a good start with an English bias ha ha and france-gallop.com can be transferred to English on the left top corner.
If you have a VPN, set it to the UK, and just join ITV Hub they are showing it live this year.
The Woodward field is disappointing. Life Is Good is a clear standout on numbers. Only one of his opponents has ever earned a triple-digit BSF. That was Thomas Shelby with a 101 which was almost a year ago. Thomas Shelby went off form at the end of the Oaklawn meet. He comes off a comeback win at Monmouth. But, even if you think that Monmouth victory was a sign that he’s back on the beam, here’s his real problem: Thomas Shelby runs his best on the lead and it’s highly doubtful that he is as fast or faster than Life Is Good. To me, the Woodward looks like a “watch” race using Life Is Good as your “free square” in multi-race wagers.
Looking at Life Is Good’s form, are we being too hard on him for his 4th place finish in the Dubai World Cup? That race was his first try at a mile and a quarter and his first race in 4 1/2 months. He was given a Timeform Rating of 124 for that race. Many of us use different methods of converting Timeform Ratings to BSFs for comparisons. I estimate that he ran about a 108 or 109 BSF in that race at Meydan. A 108 or 109 would fall right into line with what he normally runs. No matter what happens on Saturday, I’m going to be real interested to see what kind of workouts Todd Pletcher puts into him in preparation for the Breeders Cup Classic. If I see some longer works, Life Is Good might just work his way onto my tickets.
Obviously, Flightline will have to regress from that huge BSF that he ran down at old Del Mar. If Flightline moves forward off of that race they will all be running for 2nd. But, if he does regress some, Life Is Good, Epicenter, or Taiba could enter the picture and make a race out of it.
TommyMc, don’t hold your breath on Todd P giving LIG a longer workout than 5 furlongs. I have ,watched him for years !!! Just not going to happen !!! If he is put on the frontend and the fractions are fast (22 to 23. 46 to 47, 1:10 to 1:11) LIG “will” get passed up before the finish line if he is in the BCC. Now if is able to control the pace (24 to 25, 48 to 49 , 1:12 to 1:13) he may have a chance but I don’t think that will be the case this year.. That is why I stated earlier if he can be rated in the early part of the race and stay off the pace by 5 to 7 lengths he could be a factor at the end.
Rain very possible for New York on Saturday. Still no turf at Churchill. Looking at Saturday’s Santa Anita card, it looks like the big fields from Del Mar didn’t carry over to “The Great Race Place”. Only the last 2 races have as many as 10 horses entered. The Breeders Cup starts 5 weeks from today.
Del Mar benefitted in average field size from Golden Gate being idol and a few midwest owners participating in the ship and win program. I’m eager to see how Forbidden Kingdom performs Saturday at SA against older in a graded sprint.
On Forbidden Kingdom also looking forward to that, it is the sixth race tomorrow at SA. He looked so promising this past spring. Poor horse has had a rough go the last 6 months. Hope he bounces back to his previous form.
Heard from family and friends this morning who live in Florida. They are all OK and safe. No worries here dependent on the system continuing to track NE. Gusty winds today through Sat morning. Periods of heavy rain starting Friday afternoon into Saturday. Main concern will be trees toppling. Live in a heavily wooded rural area.
Next area of concern is the coast of Georgia and South Carolina. Have friends that live near or on the coast in both. Also concern for the wild horse herds that live on the barrier islands of Georgia and North Carolina and of course the ponies on Chincoteaque and Assateaque.
As to the races this weekend. The Woodward should be a walk over for Life is Good. Keepmeinmind runs second.
In the Lukas, Art Collector and Hot Rod Charlie finishes second or third. Hoping for a good run by Rich Strike. Speakers Corner in the Ack Ack.
Best of luck to everyone and safe races to all..
As to Taiba in the Classic, I do believe he will be in the top 4. Just do not think he can overtake Flightline. Actually think Flightline has not shown all he has.
So glad to hear your family and friends are safe.
Thank you.
Baffert has the right jockey for Taiba in the Classic. Smith let American Pharoah go and won the race for 2nd ($900k) on Effinex.
It’s nice to have hall of fame riders in the big races. Velazquez rode Medina Spirit that way in last seasons BCC.
They only have 6 horses for the Lukas Classic including Rich Strike, Hot Rod Charlie, Art Collector, and Happy Saver. The
Ack Ack drew 10 entrants with Speaker’s Corner down on the rail as the likely heavy favorite. Still no turf racing at Churchill. The weather looks good for Louisville on Saturday.
Lukas Classic a lot better race than the Woodward, which is a joke. And a disgrace to the name
True Steve, but if you took out LIG from the race you probably would have had 7 to 10. Secretariat Woodward had only 5. Just one of those years. Just my thoughts
At least one of those 5 was a future Hall of Famer. I just wish New York had better horses to run against him. There just arent that many top horses around.
Happy Saver, throws things in bunches. If we look at his last 10 races, At the bottom he has 4 straight wins, followed by a show, then his last 5 races are all places(2nd).
So now what does one project he does this weekend.
Win!
So true Steve, Trainers also don’t want to run their horses as often. To give everyone an idea and perspective about that. Secretariat ran the Woodward on Sept 29th at 1 1/2 miles back then. 2 weeks prior on Sept 15th he had run the Marlboro Cup at 1 1/8 mile. On Oct 8th he runs in another 1 1/2 mile race and then 3 weeks later on Oct 28th he runs in 1 5/8 mile race. He won all those races except the Woodward where he was 2nd. The Breeder Cup has changed the mindset of a lot of trainers on how to bring their horses up for those races. Just a shame for racing !!!
They also dont want to run against horses they know they cant beat. Imagine if Allen Jerkens felt that way.
That’s an interesting perspective for the modern trainer/owner.
3 open races on Saturday and the Penn. Dby. last week competed for a smaller group of upper class 3 yo+ horses and the Woodward lost. Maybe the schedule change didn’t work. But Life Is Good is the attraction.
That’s very true. But, as I look at race cards deciding which one to play, I’m looking for horses that I know and that I am interested in. This Saturday, the track that has the most interest for me is Aqueduct with 4 horses that I would be interested in betting and 2 horses that I consider “bet-againsts”. Only one such horse at Churchill and none at Santa Anita. I’ve really lost my feel for California racing. Sometimes, “bet-againsts” are even more valuable than horses that a person may like.
Thing is, Steve ….there are THREE older horse preps, for the Classic, to be run on the same day…..Pletcher is placing Happy Saver in the Kentucky race…he may win two preps tom…..Bob isn’t going to run Country Grammer, but he is not a large animal, probably does not need the prep…he is a nice horse, too.
I did not see Country Grammer was entering in the AA, my bad! I’ll take a shot in my favorite horse Express Train, who was a washout, in the Pac Classic, in the heat….Country Grammer was dry, and I was amazed at that!
My thoughts are with everyone in the states of Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina, Georgia, Tennessee and Virginia as Hurricane Ian bears down on the Southeast.
If projections hold, the entire region and especially Florida are in for a rough and tumble few days.
This hurricane reminds me so much of Hurricane Irma that brought death, devastation and destruction to Florida and these same states in September of 2017.
As a horseplayer who gambles on the races, I have to be a contrarian most of the time. Flightline looks fantastic and maybe even unbeatable in the Breeders Cup Classic. But, betting on him in the Classic doesn’t seem to be an option at likely odds-on. If you see him as unbeatable, “singling” him in multi-race wagers is probably your best option. It’s hard to believe that a horse that has only started 2 times this year will be such a heavy favorite. But, he’s been that impressive. Maybe Jack Gilden’s next book should take us behind the scenes and explain why he races so infrequently. We all know about him tearing into his own flesh by getting caught on a nail or latch in his own stall. But, that was a while ago now. Spectacular Bid ran
30 races. Flightline is 5 for 5. Will he get to 10 races? I hope so. I love to watch him run. But, I have my doubts. Anyway, back on topic. I think Taiba has become a viable option. He should be a decent price with Life Is Good and Epicenter likely the 2nd & 3rd favorites. Too early to make a commitment on any one horse now. I’ve had a bet on every single Breeders Cup race ever run and I’ll have one on this year’s Classic as well. But, it won’t be on Flightline at odds-on. When it gets close to post-time, if I don’t get a good feeling about any of the contenders, I might even make a small across the board bet on Happy Saver if he makes the race. Slowed by hoof problems, he always hits the board.
I used to be able to say that I’ve seen every Breeders Cup race “live” on TV or in person. But, when the Marathon was still a Breeders Cup race, NBC cut into the races late one year when a Notre Dame football game ran over. I watched the replay. But, I can no longer say that I’ve watched them all “live”. Thanks, NBC!
Todd Pletcher has a dismal record of winning with a a front runner going a 1 1/4 mile ( better with 1 1/2 mile race but that is a different race strategy and tactic … slow beginning fast finish ). Many here feel that LIG will be running on the front end in the BCC, but what if Todd decides to have him run off the pace (if he can be rated) like he did with Vino Rosso (one of Steve’s favorites ) in his BCC win. In that race he let Vinno Rosso run off the pace (about 5 lengths back and let War of Will, McKinzie and the ill fated Mongolian Groom do the dirty work on the front end early in the race. LIG has a quick turn of foot and could be dangerous with that kind of strategy. He may employ that strategy with a fast track , otherwise unless the track is sloppy then I am sure he goes for the lead (as will many other horses) early. Just food for thought here. Was thinking he might try the strategy this Saturday but with a 65% chance of rain and possibly a sloppy track I doubt it.
I like Happy Saver tom……I thought Pletcher should’ve run Life Is Good in the Churchill race, and get the two turn prep…..methinks they’re going to duck Flightline..
I’m visiting with my brother, who does not bet anymore, and is not as into the sport as he once was…but he’s very insightful, about horses, and he noticed how when Flightline has made an insurmountable lead, and is being eased up on by the rider …he is STILL drawing away from them, you see horses…up by 12, that win by 6 eased up…….Flightline eased up is widening….
I love the emergence of Taiba as he has matured (and become a much more willing workhorse.) Loved his win in the PA Derby and now we can really look forward to the Classic. I doubt either Epicenter or Taiba can beat Flightline and, probably, Life Is Good, but it should be a great race.
Steve, do you think a West Coast alternative to the post-Triple Crown races will ever develop? Do you think it’s even necessary? I don’t know how it would work, coming up with the money for purses for such events, and with Del Mar focusing on turf racing so much, but it always has seemed unfair to me that CA-based 3 year olds have to keep traveling back and forth across the country to compete in the major races throughout the summer and early fall.
There used to be The Swaps Stakes, at Hollywood Park….a big purse, 10 furlongs, sort of a west coast Travers, and it drew top tier horses….
True. I just think it would be great if they could find a way to fit in 2 or 3 of these top tier stakes for 3 year olds between the Belmont and the Awesome Again. There would be no conflict with other races on the West coast, although there’s always going to be a conflict with the established East coast races, as well as the second-tier derbies. Worth thinking about, anyway.
All they have is the Pacific Classic….but if a three year old does well in that race, it’s more than the Travers, cuz it’s against elders…but you’re right, west coast horses have to travel east in the Spring (Derby)….Summer (Haskell, Travers, Penn)….and then the Breeders Cup, if it’s back there, when a west coast horse wins the Eclipse they gotta do more……
Of course …Best Pal won the Swaps by four. Then won the inaugural Pac Classic, over a stellar field of older—Twilight Agenda, Unbridled, Farma Way he paid $11….
I was there when Prized beat Sunday Silence in the Swaps. Then that fall at GP, Prized won the Breeder Cup Turf.
When Hollywood Park closed California lost half its racing heart/history. Best track surface as well. What a damn(polite) shame.
They dont seem to have any desire to come up with one now that the Swaps is gone. Years ago the Hollywood Derby was run after the Triple Crown. Maybe the Shared Belief will grow and get some recognition.
Steve, just sharing a portion of an article that I read awhile back on the effect of age on the American Thoroughbred horse. The article was published in a Japanese Equine Scientific Journal back in 2010. I found it to be quite interesting. The Japanese have turned the sport of horse racing into a science, have they not?
Using a dataset of 274 male Thoroughbred racehorses in the United States, we study the effect of age on racing performance. Beyer speed figures, which are uniform measures of racing performance across distance and racing surface, are utilized in this study. A system of equations is estimated to determine quadratic improvement and decline in racing performance. We find that a typical horse’s peak racing age is 4.45 years. The rate of improvement from age 2 to 4 1/2 is greater than the rate of decline after age 4 1/2. A typical horse will improve by 10 (horse) lengths in sprints (less than 1 mile) and 15 lengths in routes (one mile or greater) from age 2 to 4 1/2. Over the next five years the typical decline is 6 lengths for sprints and 9 for routers.
What this article tells me is that with a 139 Beyer, Flightline is at his peak and will be hard to beat in the Classic.
Of course anything can happen on any given Saturday.
I would add that this study would seem to indicate that certain horses that continue to race sucessfully past 5 (example Zenyatta and Stradavarius) decline much more slowly from their peak than others. Is that in some way a genetic trait or pedigree related.
I thought this was fascinating and wondered if you agree with the article based on your almost infinite database of knowledge about the horses and the sport?
Good stuff Lynda… Glad you shared it. I think owners of fillies and mares tend to run them to a later age (unless injury occurs) Colts and horses are retired early as we all know for the $$$ they can bring at stud If they risk running them longer they risk catastrophic injury or worse yet they might get beat by another horse (oh my can’t let that happen ) as it might devalue them. Owners today only see $$$ signs and days of the Whitneys, Vanderbilts , Hunts are probably long gone.
An interesting study, Lynda. However, while reading your post, it crossed my mind that the early retirement of superior runners, prior to racing at 4 years, may have skewed the finding somewhat.
Davids the group of 274 horses had to meet 2 criteria; be at least 6 years old and raced at least 45 times.
I have not read the entire report as to the methodology, only the conclusions.
There were multiple research groups and all had conducted similar studies on human athletes in different sports and there were two researchers who had completed similar studies in Australia.
The purpose of the study was to determine the impact of age on the Beyer speeds for American dirt horses.
The authors did mention the early retirement of 3 year old colts and fillies with breeding shed possibilities as the reason for their retirement as a possible factor that could cause some variations in the results but not to a significant degree. The study also took into consideration the breeding of precouscious two year olds.
Another part of the study was the grouping of horses in their peer groups.
The final graphic representation clearly shows the dramatic increase in Beyer figures for two year olds until the ages from three and a half to four and a half where the speed figures level off and do not decline through age 6 to any great degree and slowly drop to age ten. On average the speed figures for the older horses 8-10 does not drop to the level of the starting Beyers for two year olds.
In that I am always very interested in the pedigrees of these horses and the impact of their pedigrees on their performance, my curiosity was about horses that do have a long shelf life such as Zenyatta, Winx and Stradavarius just as examples. Is this ability in some way genetic or a genetic tendency or is just luck?
You do bring up a very good point.
Coincidentally about 15 minutes after I submitted the post above an ad from My Racehorse popped up in my FB feed. The group has purchased a gorgeous yearling by Arrogate and is offering shares at $127 a month. The headliner for the add highlights Arrogate as the sire and D Wayne Lucas as the trainer and “Stallion Making Pedigree”. I found that selling point about his pedigree interesting and somewhat sad. Even the investment groups are now advertising the breeding value of a yearlings. If this trend continues these colts will have a breeding contract as soon as they drop.
Another hot topic in the discussion groups that I follow is the drop off in performance of Secret Oath. She has raced 12 times in a year and there ate many people who feel that it is time to retire her to to a broodmare career.
I honestly do not know where all this is going. I only know that these trends are hurting the sport (in my opinion).
Steve mentioned in his article that the death of Spectacular Bid signaled the end of the golden age of racing. The iron age of racing ended in the 60’s. Not sure what this current age of racing will be called but have to ask myself will these trends of lightly raced horses so as to protect the breeding potential of said horse be the end of racing as we old timers have known it to be.
Similar to the Japanese study…there’s probably a “scientific ” way to trace The Lukas model…because what’s happening to Secret Oath has happened before, and before that. ……he wears down horses. I cringed, when that son of Paulsen handed Azeri over to Lukas, a mare that had rarely tasted defeat went 1 for 7, I think….The Iron Lady ended up refusing to run…if Wayne didn’t have her— maybe we never would have known her greatness, because he made her prove it, time after time—but in another trainer’s hands maybe she never gets beat, we’ll never know…
Laura de Seroux had recommended that Azeri be retired because of the tendon injury but Michael Paulson decided otherwise and sent her to Lukas. After a lengthy spell Azeri returned to some success but the desires were over ambitious.
Lynda, I became accustomed to early retirements of racehorses as a youngster so I began following the racehorses I adored into the stud farm/sales ring through their progeny. My initial sadness of seeing a favorite runner disappear from the racetrack was quickly compensated by the breeding side of racing in Europe, Australia, and the United States.
It’s the agonizing waiting from the foal birth, to sales, to first race that frustrates me but the thrill of watching thoroughbreds racing has never diminished. I’ve just become pragmatic over the years. If you can’t change things there’s not much point ruining the pleasure you enjoy.
As the study indicates, through injury, wear and tear, less flexibility and muscle plasticity as the runner matures are all going to slow a young horse as it ages. Those that have been lucky to dodge the above afflictions are rare and sometimes retain their vigor at an ‘old’ age of six years.
Davids, I totally agree with you.
I am so disheartened sometimes by the paradigm shift that the sport here in the United States has taken that I have considered many times to simply stop watching. But my love for horses and the sport keeps pulling me back.
I too enjoy following both my favorite colts and fillies after their racing career is over and they head to the breeding farm.
Also enjoy following the horses that go onto to other successful careers after racing such as Lava Man who became a pny horse or one of Zenyatta’s colts that now has a career in eventing.
Thoroughbreds are very versatile horses. For decades going back to Colonial times they were used as riding horses, pulling buggies, cross country (hunting). The Thoroughbred was ridden by several of our Presidents including Washington, Jefferson and Grant. Queen Elizabeth’s favorite horse that she rode for years in the Trooping of The Color was a half Thoroughbred mate named Burmese.
Every year from February to May I follow the breeding farms and so enjoy seeing the photos of the foals.
Sometimes I sm surprised by the quality of the foals by some of these stallions. The Arrogate progeny for example have been top quality in my opinion. It is also interesting to see the results of different blood line crosses…what stallion line nicks with what mare line.
VERY telling, that they call horses “future sires”, of a horse’s race plan a “sire maker”……the goal today is after they race….
And one more thing that be of interest to you Davids is that King Charles has reportedly transferred ownership of the Royal racing stable into his name only. It had been reported that the Queen Consort was going to take over the stable. It is not known if the King will continue to race under Queen Elizabeth’s silks (she continued the silks that her Father did) or race under his silks ( evidently he has his own silks that he races under). There are concerns that the King will be selling most or all of the Royal Stable (about 100 horses including 80 broodmares) as a part of his plan to downsize the Monarchy.
Yes, Lynda, I read that as well. King Charles is downsizing the Royal Family to the immediate family but I haven’t read about him downsizing the Queen Elizabeth II’s stables. Horse racing is wonderful PR for the Royal Family and everyone enjoys Royal Ascot.
Very interesting, Lynda. Thanks
I had heard that Life is Good’s race overseas was on a very deep track. Someone said, “You couldn’t hear the horses as they ran by.” I don’t know if this is true but I’d like to think he’d have fared better if it was on a faster track. I sure hope he gets the chance to run in the Classic. I wouldn’t bet on him to win but I’d love it if he did.
I was hoping you would write about Taiba this week, Steve. Thank you for do so. I was also hoping Saturday would be Taiba’s coming out party and from the looks of his last 1/8th he still had plenty in the tank, and, he’s still got plenty of upside. How do you run him against Flightline? Perhaps see if LIG can soften him up with his style and then take your best shot at one run?
Intriguing part, to me, LIG, Flightline, Taiba & Epicenter are all fighters…but then again, we don’t know that about Flightline. Probably won’t matter!
Taiba certainly was impressive in the PA Derby. Epicenter may have the edge in the BCC on Taiba because of his dominating win at 1 1/4 in the Travers and has more races under his belt. The lightly raced Flightline will be a deserving heavy FAV. Those are the 3 that I will use in my Late P5. Should be a helluva race for sure .
Interesting take on Taiba’s performance in the PA Derby and the potential rivalry with Epicenter, Steve. I was of the opinion that Epi had the 3YO title wrapped up, but the year is far from over. Wonderful the way you keep the pot simmering with your stories, Steve. You are STILL the best turf writer out there.
I doubt anyone will miss me, but I’m going on vacation for a couple of weeks at a place that may prove hard to follow the races. Looking forward to reading posts and comments when I get back!
Thank you. We will definitely miss you. Have a wonderful time.
Thanks, Steve! And thanks everyone! Going to Greece (I believe they have internet there), but it’s whether my phone will work.
Not only will you be missed, Ms Blacktype, but we want to know where you are vacating? No internet access sounds intriguing. I’m guessing the South-pole.
Hope you have a nice vacation. Not having internet access these days is not necessarily a bad thing, LOL.
I will miss you. Always look forward to reading your thoughts about things!
Have a great vacation. As I have posted before on this blog … The crowning of Epicenter as 3 year old champion after his Travers win was premature. I have always felt that Taiba and Cyberknife were just as good as him if not better. On another note I read that Forbidden Kingdom may be enter to run at Santa Anita this Saturday in a Sprint Championship race…. Mandella has given him some serious works as of late. He is another one to look forward to as a 4 year old
Pletcher talks about Flightline, he knows the horse, and he knew they were planning to run in the Met Mile back when they announced it in Feb….after they won the Met they announced their plans for the Pac Classic—Del Mar is where Life Is Good started out, where he ran so big in the Dirt Mile— he likes it there, and he could’ve also taken on Country Grammer—they did not go in the Met Mile or Pac Classic, I don’t think they will try for the Classic.
I almost feel like a second to Flightline in the Breeders Cup Classic would look better on Life Is Good’s resume than another BC Dirt Mile win.
Breders’ Cup Dirt Mile around two turns….ZZZZZZ. Different story if it was one turn. That is a true mile. Two turns phony mile.
Can’t agree with you more on that Steve !!!
Great point!
Matthew, if Life is Good wins the Woodward Stakes by 10 lengths in a canter then Breeders’ Cup Classic bound he will be but if he just gets over the line by a length then the Dirt Mile seems prudent.
Contrary to others, for me, 2 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Miles wins looks vastly more impressive than an also ran in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, 20 lengths behind Flightline. Moreover, the battle with Jack Christopher in the Dirt Mile could be a memorable highlight.
Steve Haskin really made me think about it. “Is Taiba close enough to superstardom to wrest control of the 3-year-old division from Epicenter?” I would have to say no. Taiba is close to superstardom. But, looking at their records for the year. Epicenter has 4 wins and 3 seconds in his 7 races. Taiba has 3 wins and a second in his 5 starts. If Taiba were to somehow win the Breeders Cup Classic it would sure make things very close. But, I think that Epicenter’s wins in The Travers, Jim Dandy, Risen Star, and Louisiana Derby along with his seconds in the Lecomte, Kentucky Derby, and Preakness would give him the edge over Taiba’s wins in the Santa Anita Derby & Pennsylvania Derby along with his second place finish in the Haskell even if he were to win the BC Classic. Extra points to Epicenter for showing up for so many big races and always being involved at the finish. And isn’t that Travers win almost as big as a win in any of the Triple Crown Races? OK, maybe not the Derby. If both horses race again in 2023 it could be a different story.
You just know that both Steve Asmussen and BB will have their horses ready to run their very best races on November 5th. Personally, I think that the 3-year-olds Epicenter and Taiba might be the biggest threats to Flightline. Todd Pletcher will have Life Is Good ready as well. Maybe I’m not giving him enough respect based on his mile and a quarter try in Dubai. Let’s see how he does on Saturday and how he works and especially what kind of works he puts up going into the BC Classic.
If Taiba wins the Classic he’s Horse of the Year.
And same goes for Epicenter …
Same goes for Flightline ….. and probably Life Is Good. If all four go….all for would win HOY if they won…..
AND same goes for Olympiad….FIVE with a shot at HOY, which makes the 2022 Classic so intriguing…
…and same goes with Country Grammer. In fact, even more so except Flightline.
Not Country Grammer, Davids, he has not won a US race, in 2022. ..I’m not sure they even count the Dubai race, I know England doesn’t count US races, nor should they, the Eclipse Award should be for North American performance, and you should win more than one race!
Matthew, be assured that Europe does count the big international races but you’re right about the more domestic US turf races which Group 3 European runners often win.
You are blowing my mind, Matthew. You might be right. I’m glad I don’t have to vote on such things.
Horses don’t run as much….so the Classic this year may have five, who if they win would be HOY.
Well gentlemen, I was always under the impression that the entire year’s work was taken under consideration (other than international racing ) to decide HOY not just BBC winner.
Chrome won two HOY awards eventhough he lost to Arrogate (in the 2nd Classic ) by abut a neck in the Classic and Arrogate won the Woodward and broke the record.
Taiba’s pedigree is certainly an interesting one. Great article Steve. Which line do you think shows the most influence on him? This years breeders cup will be one for the History Books.
Fappiano line through Candy Ride and Gun Runner.
OMG… Fappiano another “GREAT” sire that was taken from us way too soon. Mr Prospector, Raise a Native, Dr Fager, Nashua, Nasrullah , Nearco, Princequillo. Gives me goosebumps just thinking of the GREATNESS in that pedigree!!!
Pedigree includes
Fappiano by (as you mentioned)
Mr. Prospector X Killaloe
by the immortal Dr. Fager
If we go deeper into this pedigree we will find Foolish Pleasure & What a Pleasure, plus Gulch.
Thank you Steve., I researched back 6 generations and was impressed with so many of the all time greats in it. Just an interesting way to spend a rainy afternoon.
Steve,
Thanks again for another insightful article. Flatter maybe turning into sire of great breeding mares. I like your analogy of the BC Classic that there will be 2 battles going on within the race. Flightline and LIG and Taiba and Epicenter. We will see on LIG runs this Saturday as I will think it will determine whether he runs in the Classic or the Mile. If he wins big I think his connections will go to the Classic and take on Flightline but if he struggles I think they will be looking at the mile. I think when it comes to Taiba and Epicenter, Baffert will be telling Smith to make sure Taiba finishes in front of Epicenter and vice versus with Asmussen with Rosario … finish in front of Taiba. I will be watching closely the workouts of each of these contenders before the Classic, especially Taiba. If Taiba’s last 2 works are similar to his prepping (fast bullets or almost bullets for the Penn Derby that means that means the race did not take too much out of him. But if they are on the slow side it may be a tell telling sign he came out of it tired. I expect Amussen will be working Epicenter a little harder and faster (would not be surprises if Amussen works him at least once at 7 furlongs for this race) for his preparation as he now knows what he is up against with Taiba.
Steve, Once again you are, as Deacon said below , the “Master” of story telling. We enjoy your work very much !!!
Thank you. I dont see how Life is Good doesnt win big on Saturday. Its a disgrace to the name Woodward Stakes to have one big horse and three suich inferior opponents. Keepmeinmind is decent enough but he’s just in there for second and thre doesnt seem to be anyone who can run with LIG early. Looks like a paid workout to me. I hope I’m wrong and someone steps up, but as of now I dont see it. The other good horses around look to be headed to the easier win spot in the Lukas Classic. The 3yos now go from the Travers to the Classic, which you rarely saw in the past. Everyone is afraid to run their horses.
Steve…it’s SAD…..for a race that one time was THE race, to win….I saw the recent Flightline work, if he is in that starting gate….some real good horses are going to get a trouncing! But if he isn’t in the gate….it’s still a good race because Taiba adds another dimension….I just think Taiba finishing in front of Epicenter isn’t enough…I don’t count three year old gr1s, like open gr1s, Epi has run some huge races, beating one good horse in the SA Derby just does not compare to say— Epi winning in Louisiana over Zandon, Smile Happy and Slow Down Andy in a gr2…..I think Taiba would need a WIN, in the Classic, and that’s probably not gonna happen, BUT…. we’ll see Taiba next year!
Steve, Your are correct the Woodward lineup is a disappointment but LIG is a very good horse and beating him at that distance would be hard to do. If I am a trainer I would be looking for easier pickin’s like the Lukas (which right now looks to be an interesting race) . But we also have the Awesome Again at Santa Anita drawing some good horses. Matthew W , The last time I looked Epicenter has only run against 3 year olds and if he had won the KD and Preakness he would have been a shoe in for 3yr old champ but he didn’t. Taiba in the Santa Anita Derby beat two good horses in that race, Messier and Forbidden Kingdom. Forbidden Kingdom, if I remember right, was the favorite. I still feel whichever horse finishes in front of the other should be 3 yr old champion. Medina Spirit should have gotten 3 year old champion but the stigma against a Baffert was so strong (and it still maybe) last year they wouldn’t give it to him. Medina Spirit also beat older horses (Express Train, Stilletto Boy , Tripoli , Tizamagician) last year in Awesome Again by 5 lengths and second last year in the BC Classic. Also remember Taiba preparing for the Haskell was compromised due to Baffert (I feel unfair) suspension. I think Zendan took him away from Yakteen and gave him to another trainer until Baffert was back in early July. Zendan did not want anybody but Baffert with him. Also because of NYRA ban (unfair again )on Baffert he would not be running in the Travers.
Essential Quality had a better record for the year and was chosen based on that. You don’t get Horse of the Year for second in a BC race, ask Baffert about McKinzie. Taiba had from the end of the Kentucky Derby until the Haskell to prepare, he was in training the whole time, too much is made of the trainer switch. If he’s that good he should be able to win for any trainer.
Medina Spirit was a terrific horse, but I’m basing my point on the fact that he DIDNT win the Eclipse, last year…. Epi has done more, so if Taiba wins the Eclipse he will need to WIN the Classic—-and if Flightline is in the race he will probably have to wait till next year.
Just took a look at the previous winners of the Woodward. 20 winners have been inducted into the Racing Hall of Fame including Rachel Alexandra, I believe the only filly to win.
This is sadder than sad that only 4 horses are entered.
I think it is just another indication of how few horses are raced past age 3 and are shuttled off to the breeding shed.
But what if next year is better? The stakes fields were small in the 70’s-90’s, it changes every year. part of the magic of racing. What should they do with the Woodward, call up the grading committee? They had record handle at all tracks this summer, even the small ones. Money isn’t lacking, the trainers at all the major tracks are too rich, they don’t need to run them much, they make break even money boarding million dollar horses, going on TV. Owners are richer than ever in history.
Thank you Steve. You are the best when it comes to pedigree analysis!
Thanks, Lynda. I diidnt go too much into his pedigree, just enough to throw some interesting names in there.
For some reason my thoughts go back to the 2014 Breeders Cup Classic.
The Pocket Rocket, Shared Belief was bumped badly at the start by both Bayern and Toast of New York as I recall.
To this day there is still a controversy over the stewards call in this race that the interference at the start did not affect the order of finish. There were two horses that had targets on their backs in this race; Shared Belief and California Chrome. As much as I love California Chrome, Shared Belief was the faster horse, the better horse.
In the upcoming Classic, Flightline will be the one with the target.
Barring a bad start and interference, I believe Flightline will win the Classic. Flavien has got to remain cool , calm and collected and let Life is Good or whichever front runner out of the gate take the lead and get Flightline in a good position so that when time comes in the race, he can let Flightline loose to run his race. Flavien will also have to keep his eye on Taiba and Mike Smith. He cannot make the same mistake that Victor made on Chrome.
The biggest threat will be from Tiaba, I think however that if Flightline gets the lead and takes off I do not think Tiaba can catch him.
Do not think Epicenter can be left out of the mix here. Do not think he can catch Flightline but I do think he is good enough to go head to head with Taiba for second.
Another consideration in this race will be the weather. As we get closer to the race I am quite sure Steve will clue us in on how these horses will do in the slop.
Taiba is an up and coming horse who like his sire will improve with age. Gun Runner came into his own at age 4.
Hopefully Taiba will return next year and not be sent for stallion duties as is the fate for so many of these 3 year old colts.
If Life Is Good goes in the Classic, Flightline’s biggest threat won’t be from a horse…..
I was trying to say that in so many words without calling any names. That is why I mentioned the 2014 BCC.
Taiba hasn’t shown he can get 10 f., and being built like a sprinter, I’m not convinced he can. Epicenter got it twice, the second time was 2 seconds faster on a slower track, won by 5 L., more than the Penn. Derby difference. I think Zandon has a chance of passing those two, if he finally gets the right jockey, Luis Saez might be he.
If Flightline gets a good trip with no targets on him then the other horses will be running for 2nd place, IMO.
I still believe Epicenter is the 2nd best dirt horse in America, especially at 10 furlongs.
If Flightline has a biggest threat it will come from Epicenter. He is very good race horse because is 3 years old I wouldn’t let that deter me.
He will be less then 2 months from being a 4 year old.
Lynda, the Breeders’ Cup is at Keeneland this year. I think if there is any ‘hanky-panky’ the stewards will take a dim view and act accordingly. Perhaps, ‘once bitten, twice shy’…
Davids, I think Matthew W and I were alluding to a jockey, not a trainer. There is one particular jockey who will be riding in the Classic who has a reputation of reckless riding snd endangering other horses and jockeys and has been fined and given suspensions multiple times.
This particular jockey does not seem to care what venue or what race he is riding in.
Lynda, I was actually nestling both jockey, Jr, and what happened when Bayern won the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Bring in the French stewards if needs be, they don’t muck around and the jockeys ride accordingly.
To be more specific Davids, he received a 5 day suspension at the Royal Ascot this year for careless riding.
Thanks Lynda, I grasped the hint. Ha ha Then I thought of what happened to Shared Belief in the Breeders’ Cup Classic and the limp response from the Californian stewards. Disgraceful.
Another thought provoking post by the master of story telling. Lots of questions for this years Classic which will be answered soon enough. Lots of past greats didn’t do all that well as a 3 year old. Forego, John Henry & Gun Runner who was a good horse at 3 but he got really at 4.
I still believe Flightline is in a class by himself until proved differently. I almost feel that the connections of Life Is Good should consider running him in the BC Dirt Mile.
Epicenter IMO is the horse who most likely has the best shot of beating the wonder horse. I am really hoping that Flightline proves to be an all time great, horse racing needs him right now.
But to your blog Steve, Baffert proved once again that being patient with a horse it will come back and be rewarding.
Thank you for posting…
Thanks Deacon. Life is Good is going to face 3 or 4 opponents in the Woodwad, none of whom is capable of being competitive with him so his record going into the Classic will look a lot better than it is, as he really hasnt faced much competition this year. And he is still a quesstion mark going 10 furlongs
I agree with you Steve about LIG.
As much as Steve has disdain for Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile, I’m with you, Deacon. The Dirt Mile between Life is Good and Jack Christopher looks excellent on paper.
When it comes to mile races, the straight mile at Ascot is what the mile race is all about – Speed & Stamina. It’s a pity US tracks can’t accommodate a straight mile.
To respond: Life Is Good is between a rock & a hard place. If runs in the Dirt Mile & wins then the critics will say he took the easy way out, he avoided Flightline. If the connections for LIG run him in the Classic & he loses to Flightline then he may lose some luster. If money is the issue then run him in the Dirt Mile. I believe he would beat Jack Christopher.
When I was young & my dad would take me to the 3 California tracks I would listen to the group of guys my dad hung out.
They would all agree that a mile race is what truly separates a good horse from a great horse.
The mile is neither a sprint nor a distance race, it is a pure stamina race.
I am sure many folks on these blogs may disagree with me but I learned about horse racing by listening.
I see no horse out there that can come close to Flightline. Most true horse players always try to beat the odds on favorite.
That probably will never change but I do think that there may be some value in the exotics.
Yes Deacon, that’s exactly what my English uncles used to tell me. The 2,000 Guineas winner is the best of the crop, if they go on to win the Epsom Derby that’s a bonus.
I agree with you on Flightline. No matter who they throw at him, after a mile, Flightline will simply begin to extend his lead to the line. Never tested.
We apparently have a similar pedigree from where we came from regarding horse racing. I grew up on the Southern California tracks. I was depressed for quite a while because they tore Hollywood Park down. I saw the racing circuit at the Pomona Fair go bye-bye, plus Tanforan & Bay Meadows. Hialeah is gone, Ak-Sar-Ben gone, Arlington Park gone, Calder gone……the list goes on.
If Flightline stays healthy then we may see the greatest BCC ever. I still believe that the only horse that has a chance to beat Flightline is Epicenter.
Thank you for responding, I always enjoy your comments.
Steve, I’m not much for words or the rah rah stuff, BUT there is no one better than you in writing articles like you do.
Back to Taiba.
Of the 5 races he had so far, I give him a pass for the Derby and Haskell (although he ran super and did not see Cyberknife on the rail). My take was Baffert did not have enough time in the Haskell to have him fully primed. As for the derby it was the combination of another trainer and the most important the pace of the Derby.
Now the BC Classic turns interesting.
We know what Flightline is capable of doing. We know how good LIG is and now Taiba has thrown his hat in the ring.
In the BC Classic:
Scenario one: Flightline presses LIG and then romps. In that case, it depends upon how much LIG has left and who can come from off the pace to grab the place or show, My take is Taiba.
Scenario two: LIF shoots out of the gate, Flightline tries to keep up and gobbles him, that leaves the question as to how much he has in the tank left. That leaves the door open for someone like Taiba.
Now I would be interested in other opinions of Scenario’s that I may have missed out on.
I appreciate it Gary. Thank you. Right now the only proven 10 furlong horse to face Flightline is Epicenter. Hard to grasp the fact that two of the favorites for the BC Classic each has run only 5 times in their career.
I would have no idea what’s influential in a horses pedigree until I started following Mr. Haskin and a variety of posters who include their comments here. I really enjoy reading those footnotes. Thanks.
Liam, you and me both. Steve Haskin’s knowledge of pedigrees is superb. Not only that but his insight into horseracing as a sport is unmatched. I read each and every post.
Lightly raced?….lack of experience?….I see that both Flightline and Taiba each have five starts each, and both LIG and Epicenter each have ten starts each, which makes for 30 starts in 8 available racing years for these four horses.
This is definitely not the same as years ago.
Flightlines 1st race 4/24/2021
Taibas 1st race 3/5/2022…thats a huge difference, although they both races the same number of races.
We have no idea of the issues each had. Some pedigrees mature early and some late.