The Adams Family Back on the Derby Trail
Simply put, this is a horse story and just about every aspect of the racing, breeding, and sales industry. And at this time of the year it is also about Derby dreams; its disappointments and more important its promise. ~ Steve Haskin
The Adams Family Back on the Derby Trail
By Steve Haskin
In Thoroughbred racing, pedigrees not only link the generations, they produce the continuous storylines that have chronicled the sport for centuries.
Last year, we were so impressed visually with the two performances of Parchment Party in a maiden and allowance race that we not only ranked him No. 5 in our first Derby Rankings, we wrote an entire column on him and his dam Life Well Lived and her purchase at the 2023 Keeneland November sale by Carrie Brogden of Machmer Hall.
You can read more about Brogden, Life Well Lived and Parchmant Party in my previous column here, but I will summarize part of that story here to provide background.
In 2023, Life Well Lived, a daughter of Tiznow and a full-sister to Dubai World Cup winner Well Armed, was purchased at the Keeneland November sale for $360,000 by Machmer Hall’s Carrie Brogden, who outbid Elliott Walden, president and CEO of WinStar Farm, who bred the mare and had initially sold her at the same venue in 2017 for $1.25 million shortly after her son American Patriot won a Grade 1 stakes at Keeneland.
The morning of the sale Carrie, who had been successful buying older stakes producing mares, learned that Life Well Lived had a son named Parchment Party who had won his career debut seven weeks earlier going 1 1/16 miles at Churchill Downs. About 50 hip numbers before the mare was selling, Carrie was given another surprise when she saw that Parchment Party was entered that afternoon in an allowance race at Churchill Downs, so she knew she would sell higher than her $250,000 target price, but she was determined and got her when she upped Walden’s final bid.
When Parchment Party won the allowance race that afternoon, Carrie and all of Machmer Hall had a Derby horse to follow. Unfortunately, like most Derby dreams this one didn’t last long, as Parchment Party suffered an injury and was sidelined until this past October. When he returned he wasn’t the same horse, running poorly in his three subsequent starts. No one knows what the future holds in store for him, but at this point it looks like the end of the story.
But in racing many stories often prove to be mere preludes to other stories. For this latest story we actually have to go back in time to 2014 when Life Well Lived produced a Distorted Humor filly named Well Humored, who won a small stakes at Tampa Bay Downs for WinStar Farm, who retired her after three victories in five starts.But Well Humored’s career as a broodmare had a sad beginning.
Her first foal in 2019 by Speightstown never made it to the races and her second foal by Medaglia d’Oro was born dead, Bred to Into Mischief in 2021 she was barren, but produced an Into Mischief colt the following year. That colt eventually would be scheduled to be sold at the 2023 Keeneland September yearling sale.
That same year, Well Humored produced another Into Mischief colt and was set to be bred shortly after to Flightline, who stood at Lane’s End Farm. Because of her white feet, which can be more sensitive and cause the feet to break up more easily, she wore front shoes to protect them. It was wet out the morning she was leaving and as she made her way up the ramp of the van taking her to be bred she heard her foal whinnying to her. This was the first time they had been separated. When she heard him calling to her she quickly wheeled around to make sure he was OK and slipped on the wet surface. She fell, fracturing her pelvis, and had to be euthanized.
A morning that began with so much hope suddenly turned to unspeakable tragedy. Well Humored had died being a good mother.
But in racing life must go on and WinStar did have Well Humored’s yearling colt heading to the Keeneland sale that September. But when the handsome bay with the large white blaze, out of the thousands of yearlings to be sold, was catalogued as Hip #1, which most all consignors dread, WinStar felt he would not sell for what they believed he was worth and, combined with the fact they had lost his dam earlier in the year, decided to withdraw him from the sale and keep him.
When it was time to name him, Alyssa Toupin, WinStar’s rehab assistant, came up with the name Patch Adams after the 1998 film, which just happened to be a feel-good, but tragic movie.
After impressing those at WinStar, Patch Adams was sent to trainer Brad Cox. Elliott Walden said the colt was always well regarded and after the way he breezed and how strong he galloped out for Cox the expectations were high, and that is why they were disappointed in his career debut at Keeneland on October 11 when he got stuck down on the inside battling on the lead though fractions of :22 1/5 and :45 1/5 and finished third, beaten 1 ½ lengths, as the 4-5 favorite
He came back on November 30 at Churchill Downs, stretching out from six furlongs to seven furlongs. Walden had always looked forward to stretching him out with his strong female family, especially being from the family of Well Armed, who is the subject of a new book by Jay Hovdey.
Although they expected him to win his second start, especially at odds of 1-2 and going seven furlongs, Walden admitted they were not expecting what they were about to see.
After breaking sharply, Patch Adams settled nicely in third under Florent Geroux through an opening quarter in :22 2/5. This time on the outside, he moved to challenge for the lead nearing the head of the stretch with the pace picking up to :45 flat for the half. The rest of the race was nothing short of jaw dropping as he stormed clear in a flash and kept drawing away under a hand ride to win geared down by 10 ½ lengths and was a furlong in front on the gallop-out.
Patch Adams, with jockey Florent Geroux aboard, in their dazzling 10 ½ length maiden win at Churchill Downs.
But what made this victory historic was that by closing his final three-eighths in a spectacular :35 3/5 (:23 3/5 and :12 flat) his final time of 1:20 3/5 was just a fifth of a second off the track record set by two-time Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint winner and two-time Filly and Mare Sprint champion Groupie Doll. And this is a 2-year maiden making his second career start. The first 2-year-old I can remember breaking 1:21 was Spectacular Bid, who won the 1978 World’s Playground Stakes at Atlantic City in 1:20 4/5. More recently, Cave Rock won the Del Mar Futurity in 1:20.99.
Walden realizes some will feel Patch Adams ran too fast too early in his career, but he is convinced with his female family and how strong the colt gallops out he is going to keep improving the farther he goes. His big test around two turns will come in the January 25 Southwest Stakes at 1 1/16 miles at Oaklawn Park. After leaping from a 9 ½ Thoro-Graph number to a 1 ½ it will be interesting to see where he goes from here.
Yes his mind-blowing maiden victory may be all smoke and mirrors as are many sensational maiden victories, but one well-respected racing veteran who has seen and done it all in his long and distinguished career, Jon White, has him ranked as his No. 1 Kentucky Derby contender and has bet him in the future book. White knows odds as well as anyone, having made the morning line odds for Santa Anita for years and he gladly took him at 33-1
As for the foal who cried out to his mother and may have changed the course of history for WinStar Farm who wound up withdrawing his full brother from the sale, he has been named Wall Street and Walden said the newly turned 2-year-old is doing very well.
Now we just wait to see where this chapter of the story leads. For Carrie Brogden she said that instead of rooting for Life Well Lived’s son on the Derby trail she now gets to root for his nephew.
And as for Well Humored and Patch Adams, Carrie said it best: “Hopefully she will live on in him.”
Photos courtesy of WinStar Farm and Holly M. Smith.
Racing historian, author, and award-winning retired journalist for the Daily Racing Form and The Blood-Horse, Steve Haskin was inducted into the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame’s Media Roll of Honor in 2016. Known for his racing knowledge and insightful prose, he has been an exclusive contributor to Secretariat.com since 2020.
Admiral Dennis won Race 7 at the Fair Grounds today but it wasn’t an overwhelmingly convincing win. Nonetheless, a win is a win.
Thanks for the update Davids. I did not like how he went back to his left lead in the stretch… I hope he is OK…
His time was 2/5 slower than that of the fillies two hours prior. The son of Constitution ran with Lasix for the first time.
It is clear to me that Admiral Dennis has not shown the same power of his maiden win at Churchill on November 7. That performance was so impressive that made him the 4/5 in the Gun Runner … perhaps Brad Cox was looking just for a confidence builder today after that blunder…
Let’s see how Admiral Dennis does next out but as of today I am not that thrilled about him regaining fast (enough) speed figures.
Yes, Nelson, Admiral Dennis doesn’t have the same action as we saw at Churchill Downs. Perhaps the colt simply acts best on the Churchill Downs surface. Who knows but the effort didn’t warm the heart which is disappointing.
The track was labeled as “fast”. However, the fractions were extremely slow. He needs to show much more in order to be in same conversation as other top 3 year olds aiming for the big dance.
Agree Zanytactics, with those slow early fractions a top contender for the Kentucky Derby would have separated themselves from the pack by a widening margin down the stretch.
Davids, the Bills last night prevailed by two points. Yes, indeed, a win is a win.
Mike, I would like to take that analogy as a positive for Admiral Dennis but my eyes are telling me otherwise. The Kentucky Derby is not the b-all or end-all there are a host of big races after the first Saturday in May.
Always my thought regarding KD. Yes, many other races out there,including Preakness.
Davids, hope you saw my post yesterday regarding Kale’s Angel. Thinking I nailed it!
Glad to read in a DRF article that Journalism is doing well and expected to have a timed workout either thus Thursday or Friday. Journalism is pointing to the Mar 1 San Felipe to secure more KY Derby points. Glad to have bet Journalism at 52-1 in KDFW2. Was thrilled to get Madaket Road at 48-1 in KDFW3. I bet him to win and boxed him with Journalism and the Field. I like Madaket Road’s pedigree being by Quality Road. I like that Madaket Road Is tactical and can get the jump on the closers. In his first race he went up against the highly regarded Bullard and finished a respectable second. He shined in his MSW against highly regarded San Saba, rolling by him in the stretch to get the win and hold off a closer and galloped out strong. Madaket Road IMO might end up as the best of the Bafferts. I would love to see MR target the Robert Lewis and tangle with Citizen Bull.
There’s no question that Patch Adams possess exceptional speed, the question is, can he carry that speed over a distance of ground? The upcoming Southwest Stakes, at 8.5 furlongs should provide the answer. Judging by his most recent 5 furlong works, all bullets, it appears Brad Cox has Patch Adams well cranked for the Southwest.
More than likely, the fact that Gaming has been tested in two graded route races, is the reason he’s listed as the morning line favorite, at 2-1.
That said, I’ll go with Gaming as the likely winner of the Southwest Stakes, with Patch Adams securing 2nd place. For show money, I like Speed King, at 15-1 to round out the trifecta.
My straight $40.00 trifecta bet: 1,7,10
My $1.00 superfecta p/w bet: 1,7/ 1,7/ 2,4,6,8,10/ 2,4,6,8,10. Cost: $40.00
Safe trips to all.
I made my first Fure Pool wager on Sunday on a sure shot. He has the credentials, the best trainer and above all, he was bred for this
Give some Monet’s Magic
Why is the Southwest entrant with its resume highlighted below, not a win contender even with the presence of Patch Adams, Gaming & Sandman?
Debut – Ellis Park – 7F (26/1) – 11 of 12 by 32 1/2L
2nd Start- CD – 8 1/F (54/1) – 4 of 11 by 10 1/2L
3rd Start -KEE – 8 1/2F (62/1) – 4 of 12 by 8 3/4L
4th Start – CD 8F (13/1) 3 of 9 by 9 1/2L
What was the cumulative margin of defeat in 4 starts – 60 1/4L
5th Start – CD 8 1/2F (24/1) – 1st of 11 by NK
6th Start – OK – 8F (2/1) 1st of 7 by 1/2L
From cumulative defeats by 60L in 4 starts to winning consecutive races at 2 different venues over fast and sloppy/sealed surfaces, isn’t a transition that can be ignored. Such a transition must be given the recognition it warrants.
What do the fancied entrants have over this entrant?
Speed – Affirmative – However, a race isn’t exclusively for the swift.
Pedigree – Non-factor – However, this entrant’s sire and dam sire won a BC race.
Foundation – Advantage goes to the lesser fancied -3 starts @ 8 1/2F; 2 @8F
Trainer – Meaningless- Rich Strike/age/Mystik Dan – Horses run things.
Whilst this colt is on a rapid ascent. Its opponents have already arrived and might have reached their ceiling.
The mid race moves and sustained gallop though the lane displayed by this entrant in its last 2 starts makes him a formidable opponent.
Cox taking Prat is a bigtime move–Shoe got this, Pincay too—-takes over a mount and Cox likes Prat—Prat–after three years riding in the east, from April on….is getting big mounts from many barns….
I imagine BB taking Johnny V was a big time move as well.
Is time well spent on the evaluation of the benefits of retaining a particular rider, irrespective of that rider’s current form when it’s the horses, and their abilities that ultimately counts.
Of course it’s the horses…but a rider is important—Prat has ice in his veins, everybody wants him—Johnny V also has icy veins! The top level have that little oomph!
I like a Sandman, Patch Adams exacta box!
Patch will leave there 6/5….
The Southwest Stakes field:
1-Gaming 2-11
2-Publisher 12-1
3-Monet’s Magic 15-1
4-Tiztastic 10-1
5-Render Judgment 15-1
6-Sandman 5-1
7-Patch Adams 5-2
8-American Promise 6-1
9-Bon Temps 30-1
10-Speed King 15-1
The Southwest Stakes looks like a match between Gaming and Patch Adams…
*Gaming is 2 to 1 ML favorite with Patch Adams at 5-2
Nelson,
I’m going to hammer the 7/1 exacta
Yes Mark… 7/1 or 1/7 looks like the easiest exacta of the year … following Bill Dawson’s superfecta formula I am leaning towards a $24 bet:
1/7
1/7
2/4/6/8
2/4/6/8
That’s the ticket, Nelson.
Nelson
Speed King was my pick in the Remington Mile, back in December. He could be just a sprinter/miler type, but I like the fact that his connections have enough confidence in him to enter him in the Southwest Stakes, at 8.5 furlongs.
We’re in lock step with Gaming and Patch Adams as the top two contenders in the race.
In addition, I like the four colts that you have selected to use underneath in the 3rd and 4th slots on you superfecta p/w bet. I will add Speed King underneath as well.
That is: 1,7/ 1,7/ 2,4,6,8,10/ 2,4,6,8,10
Cost: $40.00
Good luck, Nelson.
Nelson, those horses are certainly the proven class of the field, but there are several other interesting horses in here, including Tiztastic (a stakes winner on grass and second in the Ky. Jockey Club), Grade 3 stakes-placed Sandman, and recent winner, Monet’s Magic. If I were playing an exacta box, I’d include those three with Patch and hope that Gaming isn’t the spoiler.
Yesterday after Kale’s Angel prevailed, Searling made his usual ‘brilliant’ comment,indicated KA ‘lucky’ to win. Lol. Actually,thinking he’s lucky to have a job.
PATCH ADAMS had a very very very impressive work today at Payson Park
5 fur 1:00.20 Breezing-Best of 17
SOUTHWEST STAKES Saturday
looks like PATCH worked in company with TAPPAN STREET , another INTO MISCHIEF
1 million dollar purchase.
DRF – “Off impressive maiden score, Hypnus will point towards Risen Star or Rebel”
If you are able to, watch the replay of the LeComte from the 5/8 to the wire and then go watch last yeat’s Risen Star won by Sierra Leone from the same points and see if you dont feel as if youre watching virtually the same race over the same track condition with the winners in the exact same place (9th by 7), going almost exactly as wide at the top of the stetch, and looking exactly the same coming down the stretch in exactly the same path.and taking the lead at pretty much the same spot. This really was deja vu.
I thought it looked familiar, and not just because it was almost too dark to see the race. Perhaps Disco Time got lost? LOL.
PS. Sierra Leone ran a lot faster. Beyers for top three this year were embarrassingly low (all 78s).
Oops, Sierra Leone didn’t run until the Risen Star. Track Phantom won last year’s Lecomte, and yes, he ran much faster than this year’s winner.
I would not put much weight on the speed ratings over a quagmire … how one can explain 10 to 12 points drop from one performance to another (i.e. Disco Time’s prior speed figures being so high and in progression to this record-low…!)?
So you are saying the Lecomte just muddied up the early Derby picture?! LOL.
That is a great headline Ms Blacktype…you never cease to amaze me… !
Thanks, Nelson.
Nelson, numbers aren’t a concern for me. However, would toss them yesterday due to the track condition.
The pace setter Innovator slowed down after the half, the rest of the field followed suit because they weren’t ready to pass yet, they usually start their moves near the final turn. Disco Time had to rally from the outside on a slippery surface, and couldn’t speed up that quickly, he was 3 1/2 lengths behind Innovator at the mile mark, his last fraction was in the 6 2/5 seconds range, which isn’t bad. Maybe he isn’t a closer or a mudder. He broke slow and Geroux took him back, which due to the horse’s ability, wasn’t a costly mistake. They should work on breaking from the gate, he may be better if forwardly placed.
Last year, in your opening Derby Rankings (Week One), you listed Sierra Leone at #3.
Based on your analogy of Disco Time and Sierra Leone reflected in the Lecomte, can we expect to see Disco Time listed somewhere in your initial Derby rankings?
Makes sense to me.
We’re all looking forward to the start of your Derby Dozen, starting next week.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see the two Baffert colts, Barnes and Citizen Bull listed at number one and two respectively. Sovereignty and Patch Adams certainly deserve consideration as well, IMO.
As I mentioned in a previous comment, the vast array of Into Mischief colts on the Derby trail, is simply amazing. I’d appreciate any thoughts you might have related to
the success of Into Mischief as North America’s leading sire.
Thanks, Steve.
Is there a correlation between support and success as it relates to stallions?
Into Mischief has bred an approximate average of 238 per year, with an approximate 1avere of 81 live foals from 2013 to 2021. The referenced period relates to his 9 crops to grace the track.
The stallion is exceptional and so too has been the support it has received with good quality mares.
Are his progenies to feared in the KD?
approximate average of 181 lie foals.
EDIT – approximate average of 181 live foals.
Kentucky Derby Futures Pool #3 is set to close at 6:00 PM Eastern time.
The current odds on the following colts look enticing, IMO.
Donut God, by Into Mischief, 99-1
Grayscale, by Frosted, 99-1
Tappan Street, by Into Mischief, 68-1
Owen Almighty, by Speightstown, 61-1
Sandman, by Tapit, 58-1
Madaket Road, by Quality Road, 47-1
Rated by Merit, by Battalion Runner, 41-1
At the close of betting, I don’t expect any significant change in those odds.
Senor Buscador is out of the Pegasus. They did like the way he returned from his work this morning. Will be shipping out to start his stud career.
I will miss him. Thought he had a good chance to win the Pegasus.
Looking forward to his foals next year. Best of luck!!!
Yeah,read that.
David, big 78 BSF for Margie !
Betsy, they have to convert those good performances into black type wins.
David, I think 2 SW in his first crop is pretty good – especially as he had a lousy book of mares in his first book….probably 2nd book was very bad as well.
That was only Margie’s second start …
He’s got a very nice SW filly in Hollywood Beauty, and a talented filly in Mega Mil. Mega will be running in the Ruthless on 2/1…I believe HB will as well
Hopefully Heart of Honor will show well on Friday !
Betsy, Honor A. P.’s 2nd book was 80 with 50 live foals. Let’s not pussyfoot around here, Betsy, we want Heart of Honor to win the UAE 2,000 Guineas.
Betsy, my original post is waiting moderation (life is too short). Honor A. P. ended up with 50 live foals for 2023.
A win in the 2,000 Guineas is what we want here. Fingers Crossed.
Gulfstream…..beautiful Gulfstream…..the Stronach Group showed their cards and if you’re familiar with the movie “Nightmare Alley”—it’s the bad card! Florida is the #2 state in Thoroughbred breeding, and it’s not close! WHAT are they supposed to think? What are they supposed to do?…
I was reading about that too. It’s not looking good. Hope Gulfstream doesn’t end up going the way of Golden Gate Fields.
That’s a real worry, Matthew. You fear for Santa Anita’s future all the time then out of the blue Gulfstream is given a death sentence.
Belinda isn’t Frank—Frank bred and owned a stable….his daughter has other interests—Santa Anita is a national treasure! Horse Racing would take a humongous hit, should Flirida and California lose their premier tracks..
Exactly, Matthew. Racing would shrink to a minor, niche sport with an indescribable impact in the breeding industry and employment within the industry
I know synthetic tracks have their place, but Gulfstream no longer seems like a quality meet. Just churning horses, churning money. I honestly wouldn’t miss it as it is now.
Todd we don’t want to throw ‘the baby out with the bathwater.’ Hialeah gone, Calder gone, if Gulfstream goes it would be a major catastrophe for US racing. A domino effect of earth shattering proportions. Save Gulfstream at all cost.
Florida breeding would crumble…
HYPNUS – 87 Beyer
KD points race next???
Hey Mark
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Keeneth McPeek point Hypnus to the Risen Star on February 15th. This Into Mischief colt is bred to go long, which probably explains why McPeek entered him in a maiden race, at 8.5 furlongs. Based upon his impressive performance, at first asking, and his deep closing style, Hypnus should be well suited for 9 to 10 furlongs, IMO.
Once again, congratulations on hitting your WPS and trifecta wagers, at 16-1.
Hypnus is certainly a colt to keep an eye on moving forward.
You called it Bill !
Risen Star or Rebel
We’ll just have to wait and see, Mark.
I would guess the Risen Star.
David & Nelson, Heart has been entered in the 2000 Guineas – so Jamie clearly thinks he’s doing well
I’ll be so nervous, lol 🤞🤞
The owners of the other competitors of the UAE 2000 Guineas will be more nervous than you just by seeing Heart of Honor at the track …
Betsy, Jamie Osbourne stated that the UAE 2,000 Guineas will be the last mile race for Heart of Honor so – win, lose, draw – it’s just a prep for bigger, better things, hopefully. A win would be great but there are bigger fish to fry.
Decent race by DT and Built, on PAR with a Gr III race.
But on a sloppy track, at times its tough to make figures as the conditions change.
But using raw times:
R7: MSW 3 YO Fillies: 47.53 112.84 144.30
R12: Gr III 3 YO: 47.91 113.38 147.07
Both DT and Built will move forward, but IMHO mot much
In the Louisiana Stakes the older horses ran at least 10 lengths faster than the 3 year olds did in the Lecomte Stakes.
Agreed, Davids. And the Louisiana Stakes wasn’t a killer field. I doubt we saw the derby winner yesterday.
The best prospects typically start the Derby trail in February, so it’s still early days. Enjoyed seeing that nice big field sort itself out, though.
Yes, Ms Blacktype, I agree. Often it’s quite frustrating waiting for the big Huns to be fired.
lol. Huns was meant to be guns. The AI must have been catching up with the World Wars.
Thought you were channeling Al Bundy’s favorite magazine, Big ‘Uns.
Todd, the misanthropic Al Bundy takes you back with the Frank Sinatra “Love and Marriage” theme song. That world has gone, somewhat sadly.
Yes, Todd, I tend to agree. A win is a win but sometimes the times are very important. Ha ha
Were they both 8 1/2 furlongs?
Yes Mathew, and so was the Colonel E. R. Bradly where they ran about 10 lengths faster as well.
So a 3yo maiden filly ran two or three lengths better than Hit Show? I thought it might’ve been a mile and 70—which is 40 yards less…
Good first graded stakes win by Disco Time, had adversity and moved past best rivals.
Disco Time was 55-1 before Lecomte, now 28-1 in futures
Disco Time lost a ton of ground and won…1:47 though—slow—looked like most of the field was within four lengths, the winner was best…
Yes Matthew… Disco Time was at least 8 lengths better than Built considering how uncomfortable he was over the slop and all the ground he lost in the last turn.
Geroux was very confident and precise guiding Disco Time. Things will get tougher down the line but the undefeated son of Not This Time has proven to be very versatil so far…
Yes Matthew, that was dawdling, almost the slowest time ever. I doubt any of these will be wearing roses on the first Saturday in May.
So, David’s you don’t think horses can improve regarding times? This is only Jan.
Anything is possible but considering the winner of the Lecomte has never produced a winner of the Kentucky Derby and, moreover, that some 30 odd horses have run faster Lecomte times than Disco Time, with only 3 running slower times than Disco Time, I’ll remain skeptical that Disco Time is going to win the Kentucky Derby. Until he does.
Best of luck to those who like him but he’s not for me.
If he remains healthy, DC is major player going forward. Still like Built as well.
Good like Mike with both Disco Time and Built. I didn’t mean to throw cold water on those who like their chances but when I checked the slow time in comparison to previous winners you start to wonder.
Today, BC Juvenile winner, Citizen Bull worked a bullet 6 furlongs in 1:12 flat for trainer Bob Baffert. Word has it that Baffert will point Citizen Bull to the Robert B. Lewis on February 1st. Baffert is loaded with Derby prospects moving forward.
Other trainers are loaded also.
Thanks for the update Bill…
BTW you almost hit the LeComte superfecta ($1,773 for a dollar) … the 25- to -1-longshot Golden Afternoon hold 4th by a nose over a fast closing Maximum Promise … Your formulation was spot on with Disco Time and Built as the sure exacta and expecting longshots beneath… including knowing that Innovator would be benefitted by the sloppy track…
You’re welcome, Nelson.
Yeah, close but no cigar on my superfecta p/w wager. Getting nosed out, for 4th place, by Golden Afternoon, was a punch in the gut. But that’s horse racing, you win some and lose some.
With respect to the Lecomte, Disco Time was very impressive coming from far back to make a huge closing effort. I suspect Cox will point his Juddmonte homebred colt to the Risen Star on February 15th., and then on to the Louisiana Derby on March 22nd.
With the 2025 Lecomte Stakes in the history books, I’m looking forward to the Southwest Stakes, at Oaklawn Park, coming up next Saturday.
BTW, I will not give up on Built, he just might turn the tables on Disco Time in the Risen Star. Stay tuned for that race.
144.91 HIT SHOW…Can’t wait till Patch Adams runs !!!
David, HAP has a nice filly in Margie’s Intention – won by double digits at FG…trained by Brendan Walsh
Yes, Betsy, I was waiting for you to post the win by Margie’s Intention.
She’s a true 2 turn filly …beautiful, too. She’s an LA-bred, but hopefully she’ll prove to be open class quality
Built for the win!
Due to the recent rain, the Fair Grounds track has been labeled as “muddy”. This could benefit Innovator, who wired the field, last out, at Oaklawn Park, over a muddy track.
Disco Time and Built has shown early speed which should bode well for both colts, if they break well from the gate.
I will continue to back Disco Time and Built as the likely top finishers in the Lecomte Stakes, and Innovator as a must include in the trifecta/superfecta wagers.
Safe trips to all.
There’s an interesting $60K maiden race, on today’s card, at the Fair Grounds.
It’s the 7th race, at 8.5 furlongs, set to go off at 4:00 eastern time.
Coming off a 2nd place finish to Tough Catch, Doroteo is the morning line favorite at 3-1.
Listed at 10-1, Hypnus, by Into Mischief, out of an Uncle Mo mare, is the colt that could pull off the upset at good odds. It’s not that often you see a maiden debut at 8.5 furlongs.
BTW, I assume Hypnus was named after the Greek God of Sleep, so don’t sleep on this Into Mischief colt moving forward. 🙂
Bill, Hypnus won for fun. Thanks for the heads up. Collected WP and the Tri.
You’re welcome, Zanytactics.
Congratulations on your winning tickets.
Yes indeed, Hypnus won the 7th race, at 14-1. Yet another Into Mischief colt that could wind up on the Derby trail. 🙂
Bill
Hypnus is 125-1 at William Hill right now
At those odds, I would think placing a saw buck on his nose would be worth the risk.
Thanks for the heads up, Mark.
I put ten saw bucks on him earlier.
Just checked, Still 125-1
A saw buck is $10.00 dollars, so it appears you bet $100.00 on
Hypnus with the possibility of cashing for $12,500.00.
Good luck, Mark
Thanx Bill
Steve—I heard about the Gulfstream doings—and am fairly shocked, by the sharp tongued rhetoric from Mr Brackpool to the horsemen–he offered them THREE YEARS, IF–they agree to decoupling from the casinos—bit if they DON’T agree to this–he said they could pull the plug on Gulfstream ANY TIME THEY WANT—and this affected the horsemen badly, enough to require SECURITY! So….THREE YEARS,,? .And what do Breeders do? Breed Florida breds? Will we ever see another Affirmed?….
Standard breds and Quarter Horses and Greyhounds—all decoupled…and all are no longer in Florida…
East Avenue had his third workout of the year today. The favorite of the BC Juvenile logged 59.40 seconds for 5 furlongs at Fair Grounds. The drill was the fastest of 44 other 5 furlong-workouts…
I still hold the son of Medaglia d’Oro as the top Derby prospect after his encouraging training headway this month…
In the LeComte, I’ll do a $5 exacta key box, Tough Catch w/Built and Disco Time.
I’ll go with a Built/Optical exacta box on Saturday. ..
I’m boxing Innovator/Optical
exacta box 1/5
11th race DD – Hit Show with Innovator/Optical -l 1 with 1/5
Hoping Hit show runs a BIG one !
Patch Adams has been working with Hit Show at Payson Park, actually, I think Patch worked best of the two when I watched them on XBTV
Nice hit on Hit Shiw, I hope you collect on Optical!..
Upon further review, I decided to use Innovator instead of Seattle Road, underneath in my superfecta p/w wager. I’ll key Disco Time and Built on top in the first two slots, with Innovator, Maximum Promise, Magnitude, Optical, Tough Catch and Dapper Moon underneath in the 3rd and 4th slots.
That is: 11,13/ 11,13/ 1,2,4,5,8,9/ 1,2,4,5,8,9
I’m hoping that Optical remains at 20-1 when the gates open. I like his chances to hit the board.
Nice Superfecta Bill… I am a bit bolder with a $60-Trifecta Box :
13-Built(3-1)/11-Disco Time(9-2)/2-Maximum Promise (10-1)/5-Optical (20-1)/7-Calling Card(12-1)
I am including Calling Card after watching his win at Aqueduct… it was a beautiful display of a highly efficient mover. I trust Dettori will be measuring to perfection how intensely the other jockeys tagg Innovator and Tough Catch. 34 years of high-level experience will be key to solve the pace puzzle in the Lecomte…
Thanks, Nelson
My $1.00 superfecta p/w wager will cost the same as your trifecta box, ($60.00).
Optical could be dangerous. His pedigree, on the dam side, is inundated with class and stamina. In addition, his sire line leads directly to Mr. Prospector and his broodmare sire line leads directly to Northern Dancer. This mating cross has produced 19 winners of Triple Crown races.
If Optical can pull off an upset win, at 20-1, and two of the other colts you referenced were to finish 2nd and 3rd, the tri payout would be quite nice.
Good luck Nelson.
Hey Bill, if you’re looking for a sleeper to crash the exotics, give a strong look at Tough Catch. He can sit back a little before charging home.
Hey kmi
I used Tough Catch underneath in the 3rd and 4th slots, in my superfecta p/w wager.
ok, heck between you and Nelson, hopefully 1 if not both of you catch ‘lightning in a bottle’ … goodluck to you guys!
Nelson, glad to hear you think highly enough of Calling Card to include him in your Tri box. He’s my longshot pick for the Lecomte.
Steve and all, Judith Van Doren, Thoroughbred breeder (retired) passed away suddenly on January 08.
KD Futures Pool #3 opened today with enticing odds on a few listed below.
Grayscale, 99-1
Owen Almighty, 50-1
Grande, 50-1
Getaway Car, 50-1
Madaket Road, 50-1
Rated by Merit, 50-1
Tappan Street, 50-1
Keep it Easy, 40-1
Donut God, 40-1
I didn’t list Built at 30-1, or Disco time at 50-1, because I don’t believe those odds will last after the running of the Lecomte Stakes. I expect those two colts will finish first and second, the only question is which one will hit the wire first. I believe it will be Built.
If I were to pick just one horse to bet in Pool 3, it would be Grayscale at 99-1. By Curlin, out of an Into Mischief mare, he looked very impressive in his maiden win at GP, going 6 furlongs in 1:11.42, drawing off by 4 1/2 lengths. His last two works, at 5 furlongs, have been bullets, (59.74 on 1-12, and 1:00.45 on 1-5). He’s in the capable hands of Saffie Joseph Jr., who is one of the top trainers at GP.
It will be interesting to see where Joseph will point Grayscale for his next start.
Hey Steve, do you have a opinion or any thoughts on the Lecomte Stakes you would like to share?
It’s a fascjnating race with a lot of possibilies. I’m a fan of Built, but the post is a question mark. Seattle Road is interesting with the improvement with blinkers and Lasix but his post is even worse and they have that short finish line, so another uncertainty. Disco Time looks like Derby material but also on the outside . At 10-1 Id like to see Kenny win with a Maximum Security because hes taken a lot of heat bcause of his trainer. and although I dont like betting horses coming off double digit margins I like that he closed in :24 3/5 on the lead. I would throw Dapper Moon in the exotics because I like what I saw at Spa last year. But from a Derby standpoint Id like to see Built win.
For anyone who follows them Maximum Promises Thoro-graph numbers are very slow. Built is far and away the fastest horse Again, will in the race jumping to a 2 3/4 from an 8 1/2. Question is will he bounce and how far. Disco time has run an 8 1/2 and 7 1/2.. one horse who made a good jump and looks serious is Magnitude who had been running double digit numbers before jumping to a 5 1/2 . Again, will he bounce? If he regresses I don’t see it be being a big one.
McPeek quoted in the DRF about his two entrants needing an out…
Hi Steve
Thank you for posting those Thoro-Graph numbers, which confirms that Built is the horse to beat, IMO. In last year’s KD, you were spot by picking Mystic Dan as the likely Derby winner with the lowest Thoro-Graph number in the field at 0 1/4. In addition, you provided Forever Young’s number at 1, which was the 2nd lowest in the field at 1, (finished 3rd). Sierra Leone’s number was the 3rd lowest, at 1 1/2 (finished 2nd). There’s your $1.00 dollar trifecta, which paid a whopping $1,113.84.
Keep those Thoro-Graph numbers coming Steve.
Many thanks.
They nailed it last year.
Steve
When you say, “they nailed it last year”, are you referring to the individuals that compile Thoro-Graph numbers or are you referring to the horses that actually lived up to expectations, based on their respective Thoro-Graph number?
Thanks, Steve.
Appreciate the reply Steve, and the helpful information you provided. The Thoro-Graph numbers are a nice piece to have in the toolbox for handicapping.
I am sure someone has landed on Maximum Promise to win the Lecomte. I have just reviewed the colt’s pedigree profile and past performances, and I must state that I am also a fan and on board for the LeComte.
There isn’t anything particularly appealing about the colt from a PP perspective. He finished 4th on debut on turf and was switched to dirt for his 2nd start and won by 14L. His first two starts mirrors those of the maligned KD winner Rich Strike.
From a pedigree perspective. This is a colt to keep a close eye on. No one really known the true ability of disqualified KD winner Maximum Security. But he is a grandson of phenomenal Street Cry. Further, a dud cannot be enhanced to be a champion.
Maximum Security is a Mr. Prospector line stallion and can never be discounted from being capable of excellence in the breeding shed.
The dam line of Maximum Promise makes for interesting reading. His dam was unraced. His 2nd dam who was sired by Galileo made only 1 start and his 3rd by the influential Darshaan, has on her resume a 3rd place finish in the Arc. Add Urban Sea’s 1st place finish in the Arc and Maximum Promise might just possess something unique regarding his pedigree.
From a physical perspective, he is built like genuine router. His stride mechanics reflect no wasted motion, and this allows him to maintain straight course for every execution.
From a speed perspective. He raced in the 2nd to last position on debut, which was on turf. However, in his 2nd start and dirt debut, he won gate to wire whilst recording racehorse fractions of 22+ & 46+ enroute to a final time of 1:37.10 for the 1Turn Mile.
The above race which was his final as a 2YO was in August. He must have suffered a setback as his first reported work after his maiden breaker was approximately 4 months later. MP is a January foal and there would be no need to back off such an early foal for 4 moths if all is well.
It has been 5months plus since Maximum Promise’s last start. He was a big well-built colt at the time and although his development in a its slower phase, he must have become bigger and if not stronger. He could just be much improved.
This colt would have been the recipient of my first Future Wager if he were a betting interest over the unraced VARNEY. His dam line has a powerful stamina influence, and his stride mechanics indicates he will be very competitive over extended distances in just about every company.
As I stated in an earlier post he is a sentimental favorite for me because of Maximum Security. I will put a couple of $$$ (not the house)on him for that reason. BTW Mike Beer of DRF made him 2nd choice for this wide open race. Nelson Mann wrote below some good insight on him.
Good Luck to all on this one !!!
I was a fan of Maximum Security too, so I’m intrigued by this colt. Will be watching the race with interest.
Hey Bill, I was sent here to the top to reply to you. The Lecomte comes up sticky in that Innovator surely will be guns blazing out that 1 hole with Lukas’s go to jock Torres. I’m pretty sure Built will have to level up as this won’t be a walk in the park like the Gun Runner Stakes was for him. Anyway, through all the dust and smoke …. I like Disco Time to be dancing in the winners circle. The Frenchman stays aboard for Cox.
Hey kmi
I like Disco Time as well, but I like Built a little better.
Just had to share a few fun racing-related anecdotes I read today regarding Queen Elizabeth II. Both of the only two times she was ever seen running in public, she was at the track! Once was after one of her horses triumphed at Ascot, and the other was when she was running to get to a better vantage point to see a race’s conclusion.
Also, in June 2022, she was watching her horse Steal A March in a race on TV and yelled so much that the guards ran into the room, thinking there was some emergency! She was 96 at the time. One never loses the love of racing!
An extraordinary horsewoman who became a Queen!
Extraordinary and beloved by us. I have a lot of framed finish line shots, works of Peb and memorabilia on my walls. One thing I would like with all that is a photo of the Queen having breakfast. A bowl of shredded wheat and a Racing Form. You just have to love her! That says it all! God Save the Queen!
I love that image, the Queen with her bowl of shredded wheat and a Racing Form. It made me smile. Thanks for sharing!
Thank you af for sharing.
She was indeed an exceptional horsewoman and equestrian. In addition to being a greatly loved Queen. She was also very hands on in the breeding program in the Royal Stud Farm.
I read one time that she would have been happy living the country life Prince Philip, their family and her horses and Corgies.
It’s a bit befuddling when people associate high seven figure auction prices with racing ability. Pure speculation on the part of the bidders.
After all, these beautiful thoroughbreds are not machines. They have their quirks and the slightest misstep can set them back weeks or sometimes months.
As for all the hoopla regarding Barnes, his final time in the SV was 1:22.15. Patch Adams’ final time in his maiden breaker was 1:20.77. I realize different track, different surface. By adding one second to account for the different variances, Barnes would still be behind by almost two lengths.
Too early to salivate on these young horses. As for the Lecomte Stakes, rooting for Magnitude to turn the tables on Built who’s parked way outside (post 13).
Agree! How much did Zenyatta and Swiss Skydiver go for? 60/35,000.
Zany and Mike back in 2005 there was a horse named Bellamy Road and his race before the Kentucky Derby was the Wood Memorial. He won the race by over 17 lengths and his time for the 1 1/8 mile was a track equaling 1:47 flat (and he was geared down at the end). He was given an unbelievable BEYER figure at the time of 120 !!!. He goes to the Kentucky Derby comes in 7th beaten by almost 7 lengths and the time for the Derby 202:75.
His early fractions for the KD was similar (based on where he was placed in the race) to what he ran in the Wood. I figured his KD time was close to 1:50 for the 1 1/8 almost 3 seconds different. Racing surfaces change all the time even at the same venue. As far as Patch Adams who knows what he would have sold for if he would have went to the sales ring, but it probably would have been for at least 6 or maybe 7 figures as his sire is a hot sire. Remember Baffert doesn’t set the price when he buys these yearling or two year olds there are other owners and trainer who are bidding on them too. Let’s hope they both stay healthy and let the race track let us know who the better horse is.
BTW I can only remember one horse who I felt every time he put his hoofs on a race track and could possibly tie or set a track record (which he did several times ) and I not talking of Secretariat but it was the great Spectacular Bid in his 4 year old season….. He was a freaking BEAST !!!! He was bought for $36,000 if I remember right but then again that was a different era in racing,
Have a good day !!!
Spectacular Bid is an excellent example of a beast.
Pegasus gate draw on Sunday.
Newgrange added, Skinner withdrawn.
IMHO, wide open field, several could win it.
I am partial to Saudi Crown, Senor Buscador, White Abarrio and Mystic Dan.
On another note Kirbarkhan is supposed to be racing soon under trainer Doug Watson, cannot find an entry though. Anyone else seeing anything?
One of the thirteen horses seized by Kentucky Human Society has been released from Rood and Riddle and is back at the rescue, Victor the 2 year old Thoroughbred. War Envoy is looking great after four weeks at the rescue. Coverage on his ribs, topline starting to fill in and hip bones not as visible.
Steve, I truly tried to read this latest article but just could not. In light of the condition of the 5 Thoroughbreds that were seized in the group of 13 (a Thoroughbred filly is fighting for her life) and the horrendous situation in the California wildfires, a couple of really sad horses that are fighting for their lives at Remember Me (Donna Keen) I was just maxed out. Will try to catch it later.
Hope everyone is safe and warm with all these weather systems seemingly coming one right the other on the East Coast (polar vortex).
PS, the first foals by Equinox (Japan) are just about the cutest ones I have ever seen.
Lynda, I think I am feeling somewhat the same. The on again, off again peace deals in the Middle East conflict, the continuous slaughter in the Ukraine along with the bushfires in California and what bushfires might be ahead here in Australia are taking their toll. Hopefully, things will get better soon.
Davids, another thing that is troubling many Americans is the safety of President-elect Trump and Vice-President Elect Vance during events leading up to and including Inaguration Day and the Inagural Balls afterwards.
Our Country is in a very sad state of affairs and so divided. It is a topic I rarely, if ever, mention on this forum.
California is in dire straits. I read an interview with the leader of a national Firefighters league and his words were chilling. He said in effect that the photos and videos are just the tip of iceberg of the destruction and devastation and if the state agencies do not address the situation it is only going to get worse. Unfortunately it is becoming clear that arsonists started the fires. Cadaver dogs are going through the ruins looking for the deceased. I think we can expect the death toll to rise.
Sad thing is that the desalination technology has been available of a number of years and is how other countries like Saudi Arabia obtain their water. Desalination plants were budgeted to be built years ago but the money was spent on other projects.
There are still a large number of residents living in tents in Western North Carolina. Just a saw a 10 day outlook for the weather in our region and next Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday feel like temperatures will go as low as minus one for my area and feels like down to minus 18 for WNC. So very, very thankful for the efforts of volunteer organizations like Cajun Navy, Samaritan’s Purse, the Amish and many other volunteer groups that are helping the families cope with the destructive flooding. It is the volunteer groups and charities that take the lead in these situations, not the bloated, red tape smothering Federal Government and FEMA.
I hope your country will not be subject to wildfires this year.
And the wildlife, the pets, horses, cattle, the wildlife habitats just break my heart.
So very thankful for me blessings more now than ever before.
Enjoyed your post, Lynda. I share many of your concerns. The larger our government gets, the less accountable and effective it becomes. Self reliance is more important than ever.
Lynda, I used to live in New York up until 2019 then was unable to return there due to the Covid crisis at the time. I was lucky enough to be able to relocate to Australia as I have residency here due to my mother being an Australian citizen. I keep abreast of what is happening in the US by reading The New York Times and Washington Post.
Were you able to watch the movie “Chinatown”? The theme behind the romantic drama is the double-dealing of the diversion of water resources In California.
Melbourne was in a drought from 1997 to 2009 which resulted in the horrendous bushfires of 2009 and deaths of 173 people. Since then there has been an abundance of water but they still built a desalination plant here which provides most of the water to Adelaide in South Australia.
We’ve been fortunate to have cool weather and some rain over the past week so we may just be able to escape massive bushfires this year but there has already been some minor bushfires.
Climate change is reaping the reward of mismanagement of our planet over the past 250 years. The future looks extremely bleak for those born this century and beyond.
The Palisades fire, according to weather guru, Cliff Mass, at the University of Washington, where I am generally from, has pinpointed the origin of the fire to ‘powerline from wooden structures’ downed by violent winds on scrub vetegation on Tuesday the 7th in or about the Summit Community of northeast LA County (Palisades).
The destruction of power lines were the main cause which resulted in the firestorms that erupted on Black Saturday during February in 2009.
Besides Varney, Baffert has at least two or perhaps three three year olds that haven’t even run yet but kept in conversation because of Baffert. He has Lassiter (I maybe misspelling his name), another called I believe is named Southern Gentleman and of course that $4 million yet to be named colt from Curlin-Beholder, that at last read is not yet ‘ready’.
The big spenders can only purchase what’s for sale. Further a yearling’s conformation and physical impressiveness reveals neither its heart nor its will to win.
Correct!
With respect to the Lecomte Stakes coming up on Saturday, Disco Time and Built appear to stand head and shoulders above the other entrants. I’ve been going back and forth as to which one will be my final selection. Both colts check a lot of boxes, but in the final analysis, Built appears to be the better colt moving forward.
His win in the Gun Runner Stakes was quite impressive, going 8.5 furlongs in 1:43.53, drawing off by 6 3/4 lengths, under wraps. His late pace figure of 106 is by far the highest figure in the Lecomte field. In the event that Built were to win the Lecomte, I suspect Wayne Catalano will point him to the Risen Star (2-15), with the ultimate goal being the Louisiana Derby (3-22).
When comparing pedigrees, relating to stamina influence, I would venture to say that Built is better suited for the classic distance (10 furlongs), IMO.
I would welcome other opinions on the Lecomte Stakes.
Legitimate longshot:
Broke maiden 2nd time of asking at Saratoga over 7F
Contested 3 Graeded Stakes at the Lecomte distance that yielded three 4th place finishes
Matched strides with the likes of Est Avenue, Sovereignty & First Mission
The oldest entrant in the field
Has a dangerous longshot trainer
Who is he?
On a more serious note. If this entrant has benefited and improved as a result its strenuous 2YO campaign. he must be a legitimate longshot or at least an exotic wager candidate.
Yes indeed, Dapper Moon is a legitimate longshot for Dallas Stewart. I plan on using Dapper Moon underneath in my $1.00 superfecta P/W wager, as follows.
11, 13/ 11,13/ 2,3,4,5,8,9/ 2,3,4,5,8,9
Edit
With the scratch of Admiral Dennis, I’ll use Seattle Road as his replacement in my superfecta p/w wager.
That is: 11,13/ 11,13/ 2,4,5,8,9,12/ 2,4,5,8,9,12
I wonder how many of those 13 horses who were rushed to grab 50 aplenty points are in no position to do it… I agree with your assessment of Built being so imposing in the Gun Runner Stakes and also how his progression has been really encouraging.
The question is: Who is going to show a big enough jump in form so as to challenge the son of Hard Spun?
As you said, the only one on paper who got the numbers to brave the powerful late kick of Built is Disco Time. So, your Superfecta with both hopefuls in the exacta is very plausible …
The Lecomte is loaded with speed (with only 3 closers in the field) and the fastest runners breaking for the inside. So, Built and Disco Time are able to better control all the innermost speed …
A horse you have in your selection, 2-Maximum Promise, is a very intriguing fast horse.
Ken McPeek has been very successful picking inexpensive or very affordable horses and making them Stakes winners. Maximum Promise promises to be another success story for the versed trainer…
Maximum Promise debuted on the turf and, as expected for McPeek, it was just a learning experience for the son of Maximum Security. Despite losing every chance at the start he finished 5th less than 5 lengths behind the winner. Turf was first choice for him due to his European maternal side (being Galileo his second damsire) but when tried dirt he was pretty strong winning wire to wire by 14 lengths in a respectable 1:37 for the mile. His time was a full second faster than that of older horses in an Allowance mile the same afternoon at Ellis Park. He dashed the last furlong in 12 seconds flat and did it in hand ! …
The 5-month layoff may be hard to overcome but his workouts are outsanding at the Fair Grounds track since November 30. Brian Hernandez Jr. will have Maximum Promise stalking Innovator at striking distance and I expect him to be prominent entering the homestretch.
Maximum Promise ability to fend off the rallies of Built and Disco Time remains to be seen but he is anyway a viable long shot in the Lecomte Stakes…
Good luck in all your predicitons Bill this weekend.
Thanks, Nelson and good luck to you as well.
I’m patiently waiting for SILENT WAY , VARNEY , and VOLDEMONT to debut. Hopefully soon.
correction VOLDEMORT
I saw Varney work in company…he’s getting ready for a debut.
For those wondering about Derby Rankings, normally it would start next week, but I probably will put it off a week because of the odd nature of this yeat’s Derby trail. You have a 2yo champion and BC Juvenile winner who may be the fourth best horse in his own barn (Thanks Bob). The three most brilliant horses atop most lists are all coming off maiden sprints, two trained b y Baffert, Earlier Baffert told me who his two “sneaky” Derby horses are and neither is among his top 4 or even 5 top ranked horses, but they could be very soon. One he loved so much he bid on him at the sale and when he got oubid pushed hard to train him. So better to wait a week and see if anything further develops. Several running this weekend who could make the list. So if I do wait I’ll probaby go with one more historical column.
Thanks for the heads up. I’m sure you probably feel that it’s best to delay it another week considering. I think most, if not all have been ANXIOUSLY waiting for YOUR list to officially kickoff the Derby Dozen. But what could 1 more week hurt? It’ll be devastating!!
lol
Steve:
I am very much looking forward to your rankings: they are by-far the most comprehensive and insightful, not to mention, valuable information available on the road to the Derby.
I just checked William Hill, and Cornucopian just moved from 75-1 to 66-1: interesting!
I get your reasoning, Steve. It’ll be worth the wait. In the meantime, it’s always a pleasure to travel through time with you and remember the greats of the past! You give the reader a sense of being right there.
I have wanted to do a oolumn on one particular horse I loved from the Golden Age and this may be a good time to do it.
I’m looking forward to it!
Can I encourage you to scratch the intended blog and replace it with “Horses makes fool of us”
Good decision, Steve! I have a list myself, but it is highly subject to change. And I predict the Lecomte will not necessarily make things any clearer.
There is also an allowance race Monday that could
Steve,
I was really hoping you wouldn’t get caught up with BB and his contingent of expensive yearling
I heard elsewhere that BB pushed Zedan to go the extra bid to get Barnes. Now another revelation that he lobbied to train another high price yearling for which he and his team were amongst the under bibbers.
If high price yearlings were the key to KD success, Godolphin would have won the KD long ago and Fusaichie Pegasus wouldn’t still be the most expensive yearling to win KD will 24 years later.
There always plenty of focus on pricey yearlings. But we must all be aware that long pocket buyers can purchase what’s for sale.
A few that didn’t enter a sale ring:
East Avenue
Sovereignty
Patch Adams
Disco Time
Edit:
Long Pocket buyers can only purchase what’s for sale.
Steve, your racing/breeding/sales ‘history stories’ are always a mixture of pleasure and pain with the result that you end up hoping the main protagonist in the story fulfills ultimate potential. Best of luck to Patch Adams, Wall Street.
Perhaps it’s just me but for some reason this year I can’t get over enthused about any of the three year old colts or fillies for that matter. Usually by this time of the year there are at least half a dozen colts and fillies that you can’t wait for their next start.
Hopefully, after you start your Derby Rankings there will be a couple of colts/fillies that will stir some passion will dreaming of red roses in May. Until then, the return of Mindframe and the first crops of Essential Quality, Independence Hall, St Mark’s Basilica and Tacitus in particular are what intrigues me most in racing.
Thanks again, Steve, it’s your writing that keeps the Kentucky Derby 2025 bubbling along if not the horses.
Patch Adams’ explosion enroute to 1:20.77
Sovereignty’s last to first under a hand ride whilst passing opponents as if they were tied to poles.
Built’s disappearance from opponents in the Gun runner
Just few that should have stimulated your interest.
Your lack of interest isn’t driven by a lack of eye-catching performances.
No, my lack of enthusiasm is that more than likely those colts you mentioned above will have vanished from sight by the time the Kentucky Derby comes around in the first Saturday of May.
Over the years there is a vast litany of colts having one or two spectacular performances during the Derby Trial but for whatever reason are seldom seen again or never repeat the outstanding performance.
Nysos,, Parchment Party, Maymum, Speak Easy, Corniche, Cave Rock, Game Winner, Mastery etc, etc. Good luck with the ones you like.
Davids, I haven’t really known how to react to these three-year-olds, either. I think the quality is there but I don’t know just where to find it. It seems that almost every day I’m hearing about a different three-year-old who has done something that impressed somebody. I’m overwhelmed with names, and I wouldn’t know where to begin to compile a list. Last year, prior to the Breeders Cup, I started noting a few two-year-olds that I liked–Mentee, Ferocious, Owen Almighty, and Chancer McPatrick. I didn’t make any changes after the Breeders Cup because a lot of good horses ran bad races that day and I chose to disregard it and wait for more performances. Now there seems to be an abundance of three-year-olds that look good at this point but nobody that I’m ready to zoom in on. I think I’ll just wait a while and watch the upcoming stakes. Maybe then things will get a little clearer and I can begin to revise my list.
Jiffy, that’s exactly right. I get very skeptical of ‘super colt status’ when every weekend there is another one on the pedestal to be crowned – superstar. Moreover, as you say it’s hard to ‘fall in love’ with these young horses when history has shown they are liable to disappear after one or two good performances.
Another artfully articulated, Steve Haskin story… Thanks ( Again), Steve!!..!!
Thank you very much Clarence.
Same field this week as last, for The Cal Cup Derby— but Jon White dropped DROP Um’s odds from 10-1 to 6-1……did Jon read my posts about Drop Um?….ummmmmm…….
(That is…IF Jon still makes up the morning line–he did retire….)..
Word has it that Admiral Dennis will scratch from the Lecomte in favor of a Monday allowance race, presumably at the Fair Grounds.
Yes, Ms B, Admiral Dennis is entered in Monday’s 7th race at FG. It’s a bummer for me, as I was willing to throw out his last race as being too bad to be true. I trust that Brad Cox is regrouping with the Admiral so that he can build his confidence back.
Journalism – 2 Equibase figures over 100
Citizen Bull – 2 Equibase Figures over 100
Patch Adams – 1 Equibase figure over 100
East Avenue – Highest Equibase figure 99
Barnes Highest Equibase figure 99
Barnes #1 on many lists.
Betting interest ML favorite for next KY Future Pool.
The colt’s BOW doesn’t support his favoritism.
Has he run faster than all on the Trail? No
Has won around 2Turns? No
Has won geared down? No
Was he fully extended to defeat an opponent that lost its previous 4 MSW races? Yes
Was his best opponent in the San Vicente a last out MSW winner? yes
Did more physically imposing than all on the Trail? No
Will a $3M plus loser of the KD be follow by a $3M plus winner? No (That now how KD history is written)
No one can Justify ranking this colt at #1 at this phase of its career. Unless one worships at the altar of the divine one.
Maybe the lower odds reflect more than times?….Maybe the trainer gets some player’s attention? Do comments like this make sense? Or does it mean I worship the guy? It’s a lot easier to pick horses to LOSE, in the Derby, there’s only ONE WINNER—ypu can go back after the race and brag, cuz you were “right” …about picking the loser—oh wait—you already do THAT….
It’s tempting to make a list just so I can put Barnes #1. But it’s January.
I have Barnes at #1 just to irritate Counter Point. Based on his latest comments, it appears I was successful in that regard. 🙂
Have him #1 until the end of time,however, he is a product of an assembly line of horses whom sometimes doesn’t enjoy soft landings.
Yes indeed, an assembly line of horses that have won the Kentucky Derby on six occasions. Will Barnes “enjoy a soft landing” in this year’s Kentucky Derby winner’s circle? Stay tuned, Mike.
You can always dream,right? Let’s go ahead and award him the Derby winner.
uh oh,Talking bout ‘airin the lungs’ ….
Looks like thars uh Shootout ah brewing at the ‘Not OK Corral’. We have tha hootin, tootin, sharpshootin ‘Wild Bill’ holding ground on his #1 versus the multi-barreled derringer, pistol packin ‘Cowboy I gotta Point!!’. Both of these GunSlingers are ‘ace high’ Legends in their own right. Let’s keep this town peaceful. It’s aways to go to the GrandDaddy of all shootouts in May. My advice to both GunSlingers is: ‘Don’t squat with your spurs on’ and ‘when you lose, don’t lose the lesson’. We can all hava ‘hog- killin time’ at the local saloon. Till that time, keep your Stetsons on.
Hi kmi
Thank you for providing a touch of humor, in a very clever manner. Rest assured a Shootout at the OK Corral is not in the cards. Counter Point (AKA, Coldfacts) and I have been exchanging jabs at each other for several years. I have the utmost respect for Counter Point’s knowledge on the sport of horse racing, and his strong command of the English language. In addition, he has a keen eye for pointing out longshots that have won at big odds.
At this juncture on the Derby trail, it’s very difficult to separate the contenders from the pretenders. Eventually, the cream will raise to the top after the 100-point, 9-furlong races are in the books. I’ll pay close attention to the winners of the Florida Derby, Santa Anita Derby, Arkansas Derby, Bluegrass Derby and/or the Louisiana Derby before making my final 2025 Kentucy Derby selection.
In addition, I’ll pay particular attention to Steve Haskins’ Thoro-Graph numbers that gave Steve the insight to select Mystik Dan as his Derby pick. He also nailed the $1.00 trifecta which paid $1113.84.
Bottom line, aside from the 9-furlong Derby prep winners, Thoro-graph numbers and pedigrees, I’ll factor in connections, (owners, trainers and jockeys).
Good luck to you moving forward, kmi.
Welcome Bill, I know you guys have been exchanging jabs for quite some time with due respect for each other. I’m glad you got my lite humor of your recent exchange. Now let’s get back to the horses!
Sounds good, kmi
Who do you like in the Lecomte Stakes?
It was good to see Sovereignty back working at PPTC, breezing 4 furlongs in 49.20 (2/16) for trainer William Mott. By Into Mischief, out of a Bernardini mare, Sovereignty is a Godolphin homebred with a ton of class and stamina influence on his dam side, IMO.
Currently, I have Sovereignty rated at #2, right behind Barnes, on my Derby prospects list. Stay tuned for Sovereignty’s next start.
I was talking with my brother about Winter, 1978….it rained a ton! They had to open the reservoir, and our local creek was a 45mph rushing river for two weeks….my boss at A&W had me change the weekly sign to “40 Days and 40 Nights”…..and a kid came out to Santa Anita to ride three mounts, on a Saturday card—they called this kid—“The Kid”—-and the 16 year old apprentice won all three of his mounts, to the roar of the crowd…..a few months later he sat on the Triple Crown winner, after a long duel with Alydar, and Jorge Velasquez—kid’s name was Steve Cauthen and horse’s name was Affirmed…..
If I remember correctly Cauthen rode a horse called Sharif, in a mile allowance race, or something similiar to that name at even money odds-to which my brother backed.
How ironic that a ‘rehab’ assistant, Alyssa Toupin came up with his name. The colt has already touched people in a positive way.
It’ll be interesting to see how his racing career plays out. Goodluck to him.
Steve, great backstory about Patch Adams and the unfortunate demise of Well Humored.
I am certain, you have similar back stories regarding a few of this year’s three old crop vying for a spot in the starting gate on the first Saturday in May. Keep them coming…and looking forward to the DD.
David, I agree – just because I’m nervous about short rest doesn’t mean it’s the wrong thing, lol
Looking forward to it – excited!
Betsy, you will have to stay cool, like Jamie Osbourne’s cool orange spectacle frames. Ha ha Osborne is always amusing, albeit, quite controversial at times.
David, I never noticed his glasses – which is odd because I wear them, and I almost always notice
Why is he controversial?
Betsy, when Osbourne was a jumps jockey he was once slapped in the face by a female trainer, Jenny Pitman, at Ayr and another time was head butted by another jockey Billy Morris. Moreover, he had lots of falls.
He’s always good value when interviewed as well.
Oh…interesting, lol. I didn’t know he was a jockey …but I guess a better trainer, lol
Dubai Racing Club posted a video of Heart at the track today. He’s not only gorgeous, but he was frisky and feeling good, which is a great sign
No Betsy, Jamie Osbourne was a very accomplished jumps jockey coming second in the British jump racing Champion Jockey title in 1996 – 97.
Osbourne also used to write in “The Times” newspaper. He’s a Yorkshireman, they are usually fairly blunt. Ha ha By the way, I like him. Fairly forthright opinion and to the point.
Oh wow… I need to read more about him!
I’ve read that Yorkshiremen and women are not just blunt, but have a unique way of speaking
I like him, but then I love the British, lol
Betsy, you will discover that on your UK holiday. Are you going to visit James Herriot’s (All Creatures Great & Small TV series & books) Yorkshire countryside?
David & Nelson, Jamie Osborne made it very clear that if all continues well with Heart he’ll run in the Dubai 2000 Guineas…then the Al Bastikaya, then UAE Derby
I’m not a fan of the 2 week turnaround, but Jamie knows what he’s doing
Yes, Betsy, I read the interview on At The Races. Osborne also said it’s the last time Heart of Honor would run a mile distance. Betsy, Osbourne wouldn’t be running him if he thought there was a chance the horse would go backwards from running in the 2,000 Guineas.
Weird, my reply to you went to the top ….🤨
Thanks for the update Betsy. Heart of Honor will be favorite in the UAE 2000 Guineas as the (easy) winner of its trial was Golden Vekoma who was no match in their first encounter. Also, Godolphin’s best 3-year-olds are turf runners…
If Osborne was able to win the UAE Derby with his Toast of New York debuting as a 3-year-old after a 148-day break I would say that Heart of Honor is in better position to attempt that.
It should be a smooth sailing through the 2000 Guineas (Jan 24) and the Al Bastakiya on February 21 until facing the Japanese in the UAE Derby on April 4… if the Nippons don’t come with another Forever Young then Heart of Honor looks to be a serious contender there.
You’re welcome, Nelson!
I don’t want to jinx him, but I hope you’re right! The good thing is the race will air early morning on the East Coast, so I won’t have to wait all day, lol – I may not even be up, lol
Will the horses all carry 126 pounds in the Guineas? If so, it will feel much lighter to Heart than last time!
He’s got so much development left in him as a late April foal – that’s the exciting part
Betsy, 8 stone 9 lb (121) for Northern Hemisphere runners, 9 stone 5 lb (131) for Southern Hemisphere runners Hemisphere runners who are slightly older.
Thanks, David! So Heart will be losing 10 lbs off his last!
Betsy,
Don’t worry about the 2 week turn around especially if the horse has been lightly raced before hand. He should be sharper !!!
Down, thanks. I just want him to be at jus best, but if his accomplished trainer decides to run him in the Guineas, I’ll trust in his judgment
Based on his appearance in track a day ago, he’s raring to go!
I think Getaway Car is being pointed to the middle east…
BB has 9 of the 39 Betting Interest. It appears 8wasn’t enough, so Varney was added to his list. I have checked everywhere, and I cannot find where this $775,000 Keeneland purchase colt has made a start.
If CD is going to list unraced horses as betting interest, then it shouldn’t be just those trained by the divine one.
Cox had a debut winner on Saturday by the name John Hancock. His winning time for 6F was a couple of ticks outside the TR.
Why wasn’t this then unraced Constitution colt a betting interest?
Brad Cox just doesn’t possess a divine status.
I never heard of Varney until I saw his name on the list of horses in the Derby Future Wager Pool#3.
Varney had been team-working….
Steve,
As always you give us the story behind the story and as in this case top two year old , Patch Adams. It is a shame his mama had to die so tragically and it is certainly a loss for horse racing. Let’s hope Patch continues to show continuing improvement and stays healthy so he can compete at the 3 year old biggest stage… The Kentucky Derby.
Have a great week !!!
The Southwest has a ton of the top tier prospects nominated, I wonder if they will consider running 2 divisions. Maybe the Derby trail needs some additional races in Jan-Feb.
Also of note for the Southwest, Muhimma (f.) is nominated.
Per Brad Cox, Patch Adams will make his 3yr. old stakes debut in the Southwest Stakes, at Oaklawn Park, on January 25th. Baffert has Gaming pointed to the Southwest as well.
At 8.5 furlongs, the Southwest should provide an answer on Patch Adams’ ability to carry his impressive speed over a distance of ground. Stay tuned.
Hey Bill, there’s also Sandman,Speed King, and American Promise + more to come to vie for a graded win, points, and $1 million in prizes! That’s enough ‘hay’ to make anybody sleep comfortably. lol
Patch Adams breaking 1:21 as a two year old! ‘Bid dis that, and Cave Rock in the Del Mar Futurity—and both of those were top level horses—Churchill WAS fast this year—but the way Patch Adams drew away—he looked like he was in hand! This weekend he opens 20-1, in the Futures pool, I wouldn’t take 20-1 on any of the three year olds, at this point—but Patch is among my top five, and I’m looking forward to his trying stakes types..
I kept thinking a Baffert horse did it and couldnt remember which one. I added him, thanks even if he did it by 1/100 of a second (1:20.99) Lol.
Pending the outcome of the Lecomte Stakes, the colts listed below are my top twelve prospects on the Derby trail, (not necessarily in preferential order).
Patch Adams
Barnes
Citizen Bull
Built
Disco Time
Rated by Merit
Sovereignty
Poster
Journalism
Grayscale
Burning Glory
First Resort
Horses to watch list.
Rodriguez (listed at # 13 on my Derby prospects)
Tappan Street
Admiral Dennis
Donut God
East Avenue
Gaming
Jonathan’s Way
Madaket Road
River Thames
Nice list Bill.
Thanks Mark
Good luck on your Futures bets on Patch Adams, Barnes and Rodriguez at big odds. I’ve yet to place a Derby Futures bet, but I might make a wager or two in Derby Futures Pool #3, set to open on Friday, 1-17. I’ll be looking for a horse that I like who’s been flying under the radar at big odds. The last time I checked, Burning Glory, by Into Mischief, was listed at 100-1 at Caesars Sportsbook. If he is anywhere near that in Pool 3, I’ll be all over him with a Futures wager.
Well Humored’s story was heartbreaking – she died because of concern for her baby. I already had Patch Adams on my list – he caught my attention first off because of the movie, which I loved, but then for that win in November. If you’re singing his (early) praises Steve, I’ll definitely listen – as I always do. Hopefully the Derby is in the cards for this one.
In a post regarding Barnes’ San Vicente win. I specified I was not in awe the colt’s performance as his final time of 1:22.15 ridden to the line was just about average for the stake. Also, his best opponent emerged as a fellow last out MSW winner.
But more importantly, a fellow Into Mischief progeny by the Patch Admas had run 7F in 1:20.77. Barnes pulling away from opponents in the stretch didn’t compare to opponents being blown off the track.
Well, I was accused of hating Barnes and supporter of the claim, reminder the accuser that I hate the colt’s trainer as well. You can’t make this stuff!
I neither hate the colt nor its trainer. But what I absolutely hate is unwarranted hype. Having seen Patch Adams explosion in the stretch enroute to his 1:20.77. How can anyone elevate Barnes above him? Further, how can Barnes be favored to win KD given that Patch Adams isn’t off the Derby Trail?
Is BB a better trainer than Brad Cox? Certainly not! Just examine the list of high-profile clients Cox currently trains for and that is self-evident.
I gave an overview of Patch Adams when a contributor here invited comments after his explosive win. After watching the video of his win several times. I placed the colt into the category of a sprinter/miler based on stride mechanics, stride turnover rate and share force with which he hits the racing surface. Hoses with such a profile usually find 10F challenging against top class router.
My dear friend was not happy with my assessment, and he made it known. Certainly, my assessment could embarrassingly wrong. As my assessments most often are.
Patch Adams is a very talented colt who is in the hands of one of the best trainers in the country. Despite my assessment, it would be nice to see him emerge the KD winner, given the revelations contained in the blog. But then, all on the Derby Trail
have a story to be told.
Seven “I”s and four “my”s?
John, so that’s your only take? Shocker! Lol
Good day, Counter Point
I’m sure that you are aware that Patch Adams and Barnes were both sired by Into Mischief from the Norther Dancer sire line. In addition, both of their broodmare sire lines lead directly to Mr. Prospector. From my perspective, Barnes’ dam side will give him the edge over Patch Adams at 10 furlongs.
Just my opinion, Counter Point.
With a few, if you don’t like a certain horse,then one automatically hates the barn.
Love this story,Steve.I also have high hopes for Patch Adams.I watched him run on 11/30 at Churchill. I said to myself “WOW”. I immediately logged in on my William Hill account in Vegas and put $50.00 on him at 100-1. Then I watched the replay a couple of times and thought I better put another $50.00 on him, thinking the odds probably dropped.To my surprise Patch was still 100-1 so I slapped another $50.00 on him to win the KD. I also have $300.00 on Barnes at 25-1 and $200.00 on Rodriguez at 50-1 . Good luck to all betting futures this year!
Hey Mark
The horses and their respective odds, in Derby Futures Pool 3, have been posted.
I was disappointed that Burning Glory was not listed. I might lay down a few dollars on Grayscale, at 99-1. By Frosted, out of an Into Mischief mare, he looked very impressive in his maiden win at GP back in November. On Sunday, Jan. 12th, he worked a bullet 5 furlongs in 59.74, for trainer Saffie Joseph Jr.
Tappan Street, trained by Brad Cox, looks enticing at 50-1. One of his other colts, Disco Time is listed at 50-1, but if finishes first in the Lecomte Stakes, those odds will drop substantially before the close of betting on Sunday.
Bill
Burning Glory is still 100-1 at William Hill
Thank you for sharing this story with us, Steve. I sincerely hope that Patch Adams gets a happy ending given the tragic loss of his dam. I have a feeling he will be pretty high up on your first Derby list, Steve, whenever you choose to post it. He certainly is high on mine.
With you doing a piece on Patch and Jon White betting him in the futures were going to all keep an eye on Patch( actually both eyes) You and Jon have a unique ability and my highest respect in gauging horses let alone probably the two best detailed story tellers in the business. Thanks Steve. Your a good man for taking the Point
Hi Steve
Thank you for posting such a touching backstory on the unfortunate passing of Well Humored. I was unaware of the circumstances that lead to her death. Hats off to Elliott Walden and WinStar for seeing the potential of Patch Adams and withdrawing him from auction. He certainly got my attention with his super impressive maiden win that you pointed out. I’ve placed him very high on my Derby watch list.
It’s amazing how many colts that his sire, Into Mischief, has on the Derby trail.
In addition to Patch Adams, there’s Barnes, Sovereignty, Citizen Bull, Praetor, Donut God, Tappan Street and a couple waiting in the wings, (Cornucopian and Playa Del Mar).
Into Mischief’s record for producing highly successful offspring is nothing short of amazing. Just as a suggestion, I would welcome an article, by you, on the success he has achieved as the top sire over the last two years.
Thanks, Steve.