The Race that Changed the Belmont Stakes
The Road to the Belmont Stakes had been pretty straightforward for a number of decades until one trainer’s decision and his belief in his horse created a whole new strategy on how to get there. It is a strategy that has since proven successful on a number of occasions and will be utilized by several trainers this year. ~ Steve Haskin
The Race that Changed the Belmont Stakes
By Steve Haskin
Here is a question for you. Name the trainer who changed the face of the Belmont Stakes and brought it into a new era? A) Bob Baffert with three victories and two Triple Crown winners; B) Todd Pletcher with three victories, including the first filly to win in 102 years; C) Wayne Lukas with four winners, including three in a row; D) Nick Zito with two of the biggest upsets in the history of the race, along with seven seconds and three thirds; E) Woody Stephens with a record five consecutive victories.
Hmm, it’s got to be A, B, D, or E, right? Actually no, it is C. That’s right, Wayne Lukas, with four nondescript victories by Tabasco Cat, Thunder Gulch, Editor’s Note, and Commendable, has had the greatest impact on “The Test of the Champion.” Not only were his four wins unremarkable, Thunder Gulch’s time of 2:32 was the slowest in 25 years and slowest of a fast track since 1944. And Lukas’s first three victories in succession came before record low crowds, one even plummeting to a dismal 37,171.
So what could Lukas have done to make such a profound impact on the race? It must first be established that back in the day when horses actually competed in two or often all three legs of the Triple Crown the majority of Belmont winners ran in the first two legs. Then Woody Stephens came along and won three of his five Belmonts with horses who did not run in either of the first two legs. But that strategy didn’t hold up. In six of the next nine years the Belmont winner competed in all three legs of the Triple Crown.
Then in 2000, Lukas accomplished something that had never been done before and did it mind-boggling fashion. When his colt Commendable, who was a $575,000 yearling purchase, finished 17th, beaten 26 lengths, in the Kentucky Derby, Lukas had the audacity to run him back in the Belmont Stakes five weeks later and without a prep in between.
Even Commendable’s owner Bob Lewis was skeptical and questioned Lukas’ decision. “Wayne, are you sure you want to do this?” Lewis asked by phone the Tuesday before the race. Lukas, always the optimist, told him, “We have no grandiose plans, Bob, but believe me, this horse will not be an embarrassment to you. Just get on the plane and come.”
Lukas’ wife at the time, Laura, also questioned such an unorthodox move. “Are you sure you know what you’re doing?” she asked him. “Are you being realistic here? ”Lukas’s answer was straight and to the point. “We’ve made a living entering where we don’t belong,” he told her.
The morning of the race, Lukas was still feeling good about his decision. “The worst thing you can do as a trainer is lose confidence,” he said. “You have to believe you’re going in the right direction. You will find that as soon as you set your goal – no matter how lofty it is – people are going to start telling you that you’ll never make it; that it’s just a pipe-dream. We have a plaque on the wall of all our stables that addresses the subject of luck: ‘Success is a matter of luck. Ask any Loser.’”
With Kentucky Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus and Preakness winner Red Bullet passing the Belmont, Commendable was able to control the early pace and defeated Derby runner-up Aptitude at odds of almost 19-1. Lukas had pulled it off again.
“Wait a minute,” other trainers thought, “if Lukas can win the Belmont Stakes with a mediocre horse who had finished far up the track in the Derby and without giving him a race in between, why can’t I do it?”
And so, the new Belmont Stakes was born. Forget running in the Preakness, forget running in the Peter Pan Stakes, and certainly forget kissing the remainder of the Triple Crown goodbye because of a bad performance in the Derby. Just regroup like Lukas did and go straight for the Belmont Stakes.
It was unheard of at the time, but since the 2000 Belmont, Lukas’ unorthodox move has become a routine game plan for many trainers. One by one they followed, going straight from the Derby to the Belmont, despite finishing out of the money at Churchill Downs. Birdstone won the Belmont directly after finishing eighth, beaten almost 16 lengths, in the Derby. Jazil won the Belmont after finishing fourth, beaten more than nine lengths, in the Derby. Summer Bird won the Belmont after finishing sixth, beaten 13 lengths, in the Derby. Palace Malice won the Belmont after finishing 12th, beaten 13 ½ lengths, in the Derby. Union Rags won the Belmont after finishing seventh, beaten 7 ½ lengths, in the Derby. Creator won the Belmont after finishing 13th, beaten more than 18 lengths in the Derby. Tapwrit won the Belmont after finishing sixth, beaten more than 10 lengths, in the Derby.
Just look at the Hall of Fame trainers that have followed Lukas and succeeded – Todd Pletcher twice, Nick Zito, and Steve Asmussen, as well as veteran trainers Kiaran McLaughlin and Michael Matz. In fact, Pletcher, who served as Lukas’ assistant back in the ‘90s, almost did it two other times when Dunkirk finished 11th, beaten 19 lengths, in the Derby and was second next out in the Belmont to the aforementioned Summer Bird, and Stay Thirsty finished 12th, beaten more than 11 lengths, in the Derby and then finished second next out in the Belmont, beaten only three-quarters of a length at 16-1.
So you can clearly see how Lukas has changed the entire thought process when it comes to running a horse in the Belmont Stakes straight from the Derby, regardless of how poorly the horse ran at Churchill Downs.
To demonstrate how common that has become, this year we have four horses who were up the track in the Derby, going straight to the Belmont – Rock Your World, who finished 17th, beaten 24 lengths; Brooklyn Strong, who finished 15th, beaten 16 lengths; Bourbonic, who finished 13th, beaten 16 lengths; and Known Agenda, who finished ninth, beaten almost 11 lengths. That’s two more Pletcher horses – Bourbonic and Known Agenda – who will try it. Even though Essential Quality ran a solid race in the Derby, he did finish fourth, so that makes five horses who were out of the money in the Derby going directly to the Belmont Stakes. Another horse, Keepmeinmind, who finished seventh, beaten 8½ lengths in the Derby, had been listed as a possible Belmont starter, but his trainer Robertino Diodoro said via text, “As of right now we are not running.”
Unlike in Lukas’s case back in 2000, no one questions this move anymore. It has become woven into the fabric of the Belmont Stakes by a man who has rewritten the book on training in so many ways. Before leaving the track that evening and indulging in a dinner of chicken tenders and french fries from room service at the Garden City Hotel, Lukas walked up to Commendable’s stall and liked what he saw from the colt who had proven him right and silenced the doubters. “He’s right in that feed tub,” he said. “Bless his heart.”
It was a touching moment between a trainer and his horse after a classic race that had little fanfare or significance in the grand scheme of things. But no one, not even Lukas, could know at the time that because of that victory the Belmont Stakes would never be the same.
On Thursday, June 3, look out for our final Triple Crown handicapping/analysis column. This looks to be a very wide-open Belmont Stakes, where my No. 1-ranked Derby horse Rock Your World will seek redemption after his horrendous start at Churchill Downs. And of course we have the Preakness winner Rombauer and a two hemisphere-pronged attack by Godolphin with Essential Quality and Rebel’s Romance. It should be a fun race to handicap. See you then!
Off the topic of the Belmont Stakes for a moment.
Maximus Aurelius, by Tapit, out of Close Hatches, by First Defense, is a Juddmonte Farm homebred that’s entered in a 7 furlong, 100K MSW, at Churchill Downs, on Thursday, 6-3 (6th race). Trained by William Mott, who also trains his full brother. Tacitus, this colt has been training well, leading up to his debut race. I’m looking forward to see what kind of morning line odds we’ll see on Maximus Aurelius. I like his chances in referenced race.
Considering Tacitus’ first start wasn’t until October 4, and at 1 1/16 m, you would presume that Maximus Aurelius is obviously more precocious and has more speed than Tacitus had. Even so, Bill Mott never has them primed to win on their first outing. If he wins…
I’m a firm believer in the old adage, “never say never”. Judging by his recent works, I’d day he’s well “primed” for his debut race.
BTW, he’s 5-1 on the morning line, and could go higher at post time, (if others believe as you do). We’ll see how it goes on Thursday.
They’re predicting rain for Thursday which is unfortunate. Nonetheless, good luck, I’ll be watching with keen interest though.
Weak division……why did EQ lose?….i liked him, but why did he lose this weak weak derby?……what excuse is there?….i haven’t picked the Belmont. but, EQ was champ. He was this fast 7 months ago……he has been a disappointment to me.
Simply put…..he has no excuse…..he should be faster…..his preps were perfectly avg….he hung for no good reason……yes, on paper, this group isnt super strong. He should be favored. To me…..he should have won…..
RYW……..SA derby was good…..obvious great race…..i just don’t believe….the division is weak. He should be good……i didnt love what i saw in that last race….or his work…..but on paper, sure….strange strange story….turf….not bad….GREAT race on dirt….NOTHING in derby…..its just odd…..he runs strange….odd stride, switches leads back and forth…..quirky…..
Known agenda too……both ran great ONCE……. other than those?……not much at all………i didnt even like them in derby….
But who is great?……no one……..
Don’t know about the word “great,” but Essential Quality has shown the most among this group. He’s lost just once in six races, and that was a 1-length loss in the Kentucky Derby.
You really should try complete sentences. Your posts read like you’re thinking out loud with no concern for whether anyone understands.
I’ve never seen you post something smart…….i know what i’m doing…….
LOL. I just did. You’re a blowhard who writes like a drunkard.
Your comments on EQ is spot on. Always liked him- from the get go. If he somehow manages to remain sound-he has races to win.
You should write poetry……
Really? Tell you what. if I wanted to write poetry wouldn’t be difficult.
I predicted Charlatan ……now it’s Gamine’s turn…..i still say shes not very sound…..no works in 13 days…….i think it’s coming…….
Agree regarding soundness issues.
Gamine worked this morning……good for her….
We’ll see.
Latest Belmont Stakes odds on RYW: 8-1 (I’ll take that all day) 🙂
Today, 5-28, RYW worked a bullet 5F, in 58.40, 1/34. Now, that’s what I’m talking about!
Rebel’s Romance
4f work May 19
5f work May 22
6f work May 26
7f work May 31?
Not much of a work horse, looked slow…we will see, but i dont see it…
Hey, Jeff. I was only listing the works because the spacing of them would be considered quite unusual for a U.S.-trained horse. I also offered an extrapolated guess about his next work. I wasn’t predicting a win or evaluating the quality of his works. I haven’t a clue about how he might do in the Belmont.
A column first coming up. Just to let everyone now that my next column, which is a historical one and Belmont related, is going to be run in two parts, with Part 1 on Saturday and Part 2 on Sunday and then they will run as one story beginning on Monday. So you can read each part separately over the weekend or wait to read it all at once on Monday as a single column.
I can never wait to read. And always return for the comments. Happy writing and thank you for the update.
I will read them each Saturday and Sunday and then reread on Monday . I know Monday I will read things I missed on Saturday and Sunday
Following your lead, I’ll post comments on Saturday and Sunday. Then I’ll combine them for the Monday column.
Seriously, looking forward to your version of The Godfather Saga.
If I thought Rock Your World would fire here, he would easily be the play. But I’m leaning against. Yes he got smashed hard from both sides, but he recovered and kept pace, even making up some ground on the backstretch. What I didn’t like was him completely running out of gas so early, just after entering the far turn. And then looking wobbly in the stretch. I don’t know. He can rebound I suppose, but I think it’s more risky than not.
Mike B.
After that incident, at the start of the Derby, Rosario made no effort to get RYW involved. After the race, Rosario stated, “after that incident, it was all over, RYW had no chance” (or words to that effect). Rosario simply threw in the towel, and just went through the motions. You can draw a line through RYW’s uneventful Derby performance, IMO. Based on how RYW performed in his first three starts, especially the way he galloped out, after crossing the wire, he’s deserves strong consideration for win honors in the Belmont, IMO.
I admire how Steve connects the historical highlights of the Belmont Stakes to a particular Handicapping angle for this year’s Tests of Champions.
From this telltale article, I gather that Lukas bet on Commendable being able to relax earlier and finish strong in the 2000 Belmont Stakes. His envisioned modest pace materialized. It was a perfect situation for Commendable’s running style and physique.
On top of that Handicapping hit there must be other factors bolstering Lukas’ confidence. Was that it was the first time in 30 years that neither the Derby nor the Preakness winner ran in the Belmont? Was Pat Day reuniting with the son of Gone West ? Or was just a case of the Coach following Woody Allen’s advice that “80 percent of success is just showing up”?
The Derby came only two weeks after Commendable’s 4th place as a favorite in Keeneland’s Lexington Stakes … Commendable was not able to contest the hot pace in the Derby (it was the fifth faster six furlong-split time ever) and fading 26 lengths behind could be seen as just a good prep for the Belmont.
So, Commendable’s shock in the 2000 Belmont Stakes was not about pure luck.
Lady Luck had a lot to do with two other notable long shot winners of the Belmont.
Sir Barton Stakes winner, Sarava benefited from War Emblem stumbling at the start. Da Tara was the beneficiary of a pace less race and perhaps from Big Brown’s snags ending in the favorite being eased at the top of the stretch.
Sarava, Da Tara and Commendable winning the Belmont may be seen as providence since they never won again.
Coming back to Steve’s spurring questions, answer E represents the other side of the spectrum though…
Woody Stephens, who owns the still unmatched five straight wins in the Belmont, represents the counterpart of the 5-week-break tactic. Conquistador Cielo, Creme Fraiche and Danzig Connection did not take part in the Derby but they ran 5, 12 and 13 days respectively prior to the Belmont.
Conquistador Cielo winning the Metropolitan Handicap only five days before the Belmont just replicated what Elliot Burch did with Arts and Letters in 1969. Those moves would look like a sacrilege in these modern times.
Caveat did run in the Derby, skipped the Preakness but won an Allowance as a prep 12 days before his Belmont win.
The unforgettable Swale is another story though…
As I yearn for that old school groove, I keep asking myself why managing the racing career of Stakes horses have changed so drastically.
I refuse to think that modern horses are weaker… just strong is the notion that running frequently is “too much too soon” especially for the top horses of these days.
Anyhow, Steve has proven here that a bad race in the Derby is not an unquestionable reason to dismiss any horse in the taxing mile and a half of the Belmont Stakes… It should be a fun race to handicap indeed !
Commendable another front running winner of the Be;lmont, and Pat Day was one of the greatest front running riders ever–was hard to pass in the stretch–saved horse…
Thanks Matthew for your reply. Yes … it is easier to stleal a race as a frontrunner when you can count on jockeys like Pat Day
Hey, Nelson! I was about to put out an APB on you. Good post. We’ve certainly seen some interesting Belmont Stakes results. I’ve begun looking more deeply into one of the “angles” you mentioned, that of horses winning the Belmont after not running in the first two legs of the TC.
Regarding the thinking that modern horses are weaker — I just came across a 2008 ESPN article by William Nack titled “Eight Belles’ breakdown: a predictable tragedy.” He reported some persuasive beliefs mainly from Ellen Parker, a Kentucky breeding consultant/analyst. Check it out if you haven’t read it.
Hi Eddie… many thanks for your reply. Just being occupied with my Software Development studies with just pockets of time to contribute here…!
There is the school of thought postulating that “40 years of medication” has caused the “fragility” of the modern horses…
It is a quite interesting debate that is still going on that would take another forum to cover.
The list of “breeding experts going bankrupt……….is long……..there are no breeding experts. The horse cannot change dramatically in that short amount of time…..genetics…….get to know it.
LOL
Where’s the mock?…..
Nelson, Commendable’s only wins were on debut at Del Mar and the Belmont Stakes. The Belmont Stakes win was a fluke win strategized by Wayne Lukas. Lukas simply ‘outfoxed’ Bobby Frankel, who had Aptitude in the Belmont. Aptitude was second in the Kentucky Derby but needed a fast pace upfront to launch his often exhilarating finish. Watch Aptitude’s win in the JockeyClub Gold Cup or Hollywood Gold Cup.
If Bobby Frankel had entered a pacemaker/rabbit in the Belmont Stakes Aptitude would have won by open lengths. Arguably, overconfidence beat Aptitude in the Belmont Stakes. Aptitude was the hot favorite at 8-5.
Thanks for the reply Davids. Your assessment around the battle of strategies is pretty accurate.
With Commendable there were other three horses who skipped the Preakness to start fresh in the 2000 Belmont Stakes. Aptitude, Wheelaway and Curule. Aptitude was runner up for Juddmonte and Bobby Frankel. Wheelaway 4th was good effort considering he got a bone chip that ultimately caused his retirement.
I am not sure had Aptitude won it would have caused the paradigm shift triggered by Lukas with Commendable. After all, The Coach had already won four Derbies with 38 entrants by the year 2000 and the great Bobby Frankel had in Aptitude only his third entrant in two Derbies.
Lukas/Stevens employed the same tactics in the 2013 Preakness Stakes with Oxbow to disarm Orb. They dawdled the whole way round as Stevens said “just walking the dog.”
Today, 5-28, Ron Flatter, of HRN, posted an interesting article on Dosage Profiles/Dosage Indexes on this year’s Belmont Stakes field. In short, he indicated the lower the Dosage Index number, the better chance of getting the 12 furlong Belmont Stakes distance. Heading that list is Rebel’s Romance at 1.10, Known Agenda at 1.44 and Rombauer at 1.86. Until Rebel’s Romance proves he has the class to compete against the top 3yr. olds in this country I will toss him for win consideration. That leaves Known Agenda and Rombauer with a Dosage Indexes under 2.00. Rock Your World is relatively close, with a Dosage Index of 2.20. Based on Dosage Profiles/Dosage Indexes, the top 3 contenders in the Belmont field, are Known Agenda, Rombauer and RYW. Obviously, other important criterion must be factored in during the handicapping process, but I remain convinced dosage numbers are a big part of that handicapping process.
There are many that consider Dosage Profiles as an outdated science, but I would counter with the following; why would Pedigree Online, Thoroughbred Database continue to include Dosage Profiles in the data base of every horse they post.
That said, I’m still on board with RYW, as the likely winner of this year’s Belmont Stakes.
Today, 5-27 (my bad)
Bill, an article in Bloodhorse on 12/30/19 (“Steve Miller Carrying On the Legacy of Dosage”) provides some insight into the current state of the dosage index. According to this article, Dr. Steve Roman decided in 2016 to no longer maintain the chef-de-race, and he passed the baton to his colleague Steve Miller (who accepted the responsibility after he failed to get the band back together 🙂 ). Three years later, Miller added six sires to the lists, few of which would have much impact on the pedigree analysis of U.S.-bred horses for the index. Additionally, the article notes that the Pedigree Online Thoroughbred Database has added sires that are not approved by the Roman/Miller group. So it appears that there’s inconsistency and insufficient updating in whatever information is offered.
Regardless of what one might think about the relevance of “dosage,” it should be apparent that there are sires in the pedigrees of the Belmont Stakes probables that should be designated as chefs-de-race — but aren’t. In other words, the usage of the dosage index/profile in evaluating current horses is a questionable endeavor.
As a one time follower of Dosage Index when it was the big craze, I no longer pay any attention to it. The person now adding the chef-de-race-sires, which hadnt been added in many years,is all about Europe and it no longer has any relevance. I do however look at the dosage profile because the old-time stamina influences still are there and pertinent. You rarely ever see points in the two stamina categories — Solid and Professional, but they dont really change so it was good to see Rebel’s Romance with a DP of 2-8-3-8-1. Now that is stamina.
Even if a reliable update were to be done, what U.S. sires would be added to the Solid & Professional lists? There’s not much data for longer distances.
thats just why I look at the DP. the names on there now are pretty much the same that were on there years ago. So if they are still influential I will pay attention.
For the Derby, I used to look for a profile that had more points in the Classic category than any of the other categories. Later, I began the Dosage Anonymous program.
Thanks for the reply Steve.
I’m looking forward to your June 3rd, Belmont Stakes analysis, with particular interest on your opinion of Rebel’s Romance.
With an 8 in the Solid category, and 1 in the Professional, the 12 furlong Belmont distance appears to be within his range.
I remain convinced that RYW, Known Agenda, Essential Quality, Rombauer and Rebel’s Romance are a cut above the rest of the Belmont field. Even though Hot Rod Charlie finished 3rd in the Derby, I’m still not convinced he’s the same caliber horse as the afore mentioned five, (now watch him win the damn Belmont) 🙂
In addition to Dosage Profile numbers, I look for horses that “might” carry the X-Factor large-heart gene. There are three horses entered in the Belmont Stakes that “could” be carriers of the large-heart gene. They are; Rock Your World, Known Agenda and Rombauer. I also look for homebred colts who’s sire line leads directly to Mr. Prospector, and who’s broodmare sire line leads directly to Northern Dancer. There are two colts in the Belmont field that meet that criterion; Known Agenda and Rombauer. With all that said, Known Agenda checks a lot of boxes.
1) Known Agenda, by Curlin out of Byrama (graded route winner) by Byron
2) Homebred, St. Elias Stable
3) Bred from the Mr. Prospector/Northern Dancer cross.
4) Likely carrier of the X-Factor large-heart gene (stamina influence)
5) Dosage Index 4-5-8-4-1, (4 in the Solid and 1 in the Professional (stamina influence)
6) Equibase Speed Figure of 112 (earned in his Florida Derby win) highest in the Belmont field.
Does this mean I like Known Agenda for the win in the Belmont Stakes? Nope, I still believe RYW is the horse to beat.
Thanks for the input EddieF. Your last sentence says it all, “the usage of the dosage index/profile in evaluating current horses is a questionable endeavor”. I’d venture to say just about every criterion used in the handicapping process is a questionable endeavor.
Peace, Brother.
Indeed! Were all guessing. 🙂
You could say they’re “Educated Guesses”, but guesses none the less.
Thanks for the memories, Steve. Always liked the Lukas family as people, I had the pleasure of meeting both Wayne and Jeff prior to the awful accident with Tabasco Cat and Jeff. He was a very nice person….had to be a very difficult time for his entire family….
Jeff would have been a great trainer.
Get Her Number running in the Belmont should be a no brainer for Peter Miller… 300K Texas Derby or 1.5M Belmont. Love his pedigree, (Storm Cat-Terlingua-Secretariat) on sire and dam side.
He’s my play if he runs. I thought his Arkansas was sneaky good. Boxed with Rock and Rebel’s.
Steve, given that many trainers consider their horses too fragile to run in all three Triple Crown races, would it make sense to move the Preakness to the first weekend in June and the Belmont to July 4? We saw last year that the dates are not set in stone.
I remember the days when some horses ran in the 9F Jersey Derby on Memorial Day as well as in all three Triple Crown races, including Belmont winners Hail to All and High Echelon.
Yes…….something like that……a no brainer…….what good is having preakness when most skip?….it devalues the race.
It devalues the ones that did it when they skip. Old saying can’t take the heat then stay out of the kitchen. TC winners are special for a reason. Don’t lower the bar!
Horses are no longer he same as forty yrs. ago. Sometimes a change is in order.
That’s the truth!
Thanks! Meant “the” same.
That old saying was before air conditioning. 🙂
For sure! lol
They ARE staying out of the kitchen…….
Excellent essay, Steve. Unless you were following racing in the 1980s it’s too difficult to actually measure the impact DWL had on US racing. A watershed doesn’t really describe his influence.
Arguably, Lukas’ canny foresight in instructing jockeys to slow the pace on the lead in various Belmont and Preakness Stakes to kill off the threat from dangerous closers were his ‘pièce de résistance.’
Interesting. I did not notice he was doing that at the time. Sort of the opposite tack of Baffert, who runs them off their hooves and just keeps going.
Yes, the times ended up being some of the slowest ever in the Belmont and Preakness Stakes but the tactics worked. Somewhat similarly Arthur Ashe employed tactics to totally dismantle the then invincible Jimmy Connors at Wimbledon in the 1975.
Connors game was to hit the ball back harder and faster than his opponent can. Instead of playing to Connors’ advantage/strengths Ashe slowed the game down, looped high balls back that bounced really high when landing with no pace. It was a masterful display by Ashe. Not beautiful tennis but the tactics won the game.
You’re assessment of this is perfect. It’s exactly what happened and we saw it I love the quotes from Lukas just as much when we could listen to Woody Stephens. They are horse racing and we should listen to them. As for the Belmont I’m leaning Rebel’s Romance and actually an all R,R and R trifecta.
Steve, you wrote about the 7 horses that were out of the money in the Derby and won the Belmont after skipping the Preakness. All but one (Palace Malice) were able to pass other horses to the Derby finish line. Do you think the 20-year history offers hope for Known Agenda and Bourbonic, though neither had much of an excuse for poor efforts in the Derby?
Birdstone had serious trouble in the Derby, Jazil swerved at the start, Union Rags had a bad start, Creator had plenty of trouble throughout, and Taprit was one of several that were seriously compromised by Irish War Cry’s antics. Conversely, it’s not a good sign for Rock Your World, who did have an excuse. The one Belmont winner that didn’t pass horses in the Derby (Palace Malice), as we all know, was equipped with blinkers for the first time in the Derby and uncharacteristically took the early lead in the fourth fastest 4f and 6f ever. Then blinkers off for the Belmont and he easily defeats the Derby and Preakness winners.
Of horses that have run well in the Derby and waited for the Belmont, only Empire Maker has won — so maybe not a good sign for Hot Rod Charlie and Essential Quality?
Passing horses in the Derby is not really closing because so many horses are going backwards. So I dont take much stock in that. With Rock Your World take your pick, do go by your theory of troubled trip or your theory about not passing horses. You have a plus and a minus so you have to pick one. He is a speed horse who cannot afford to break as badly as he did and I wouldnt expect him to pass horses if he just called it a day. If he ran poorly in the Belmont it wouldnt shock me and it wouldnt shock me if he won by 15 lengths. He is made for Belmont…a big horse with a huge stride. They love those big sweeping turns and can crush their field….Secretariat 31 lengths, risen Star 14 lengths, Point Given 12 lengths, Easy Goer 8 lengths….all long striding horses. If he breaks well who is going to run with him? Watch out for Rebel’s Romance, he could be the best of them all.
Thanks for the reply. You were on target in saying that the Belmont should be a fun race to handicap. Rebel’s Romance…Who knows?!?!
Getting to Known Agenda, I believe he dislikes being on the inside down on the rail with no way out. He seems to stop running, as evidenced by the jockeys that have to hit him on the backstretch or on the turn because he seems to shut it down when hes on the inside. He was inside in the Fla Derby but three paths off the rail and then Ortiz had to hit him 3 times on the turn to get him going. As soon as he eased out into the clear he pounced on the leader and drew off. So with that said if he can keep off the rail I give him a shot to bounce back. He was never comfortable in the Derby being inside with all those horses around him.
Indeed! King Fury seemed to intimidate Known Agenda (or Irad) soon after they both got to the rail. That was the critical moment for KA. An outside post and smaller field will greatly increase his chances.
Well analyzed , Eddie ! You’ve got me looking at things in a different light.
Thanks! I hope that nothing I’ve said takes you off the eventual winner. 🙂
You think outside of the box while not overthinking. Bravo!
Just having fun with history. 🙂
Nice!
D. Wayne has made an incredible impact on the sport in so many ways. I’m so glad you pointed out his impact on the Belmont stakes. For the longest time he was one of those “love him or hate him” trainers. Still, no one doubted his confidence or his ability to get a win. He also made an impact on the distaff side of racing. If he had a filly or mare who could compete with the boys, he had no issue entering them. More often than not, it seems he was right. He also has made an indelible mark on how people choose horses (especially fillies) in the sales. No one could find a jewel like Lukas (undoubtedly still can). His keen eye for horses and his willingness to explain what it was he wanted to see is legendary. Love him or hate him – turns out, he has helped to make the sport what it is today.
Forty three years of training thoroughbreds — one medication violation, in 2007 (bute overage).
Correction: database begins with 2005 — so, one med violation in the past 16 years.
Win$
2019 Four Wheel Drive 2 Irad Ortiz Jr. Wesley A. Ward Breeze Easy LLC (Mike Hall & Sam Ross) 6 F (t) 1:08.07 G3 $82,500
2018 Uncle Benny 2 Irad Ortiz Jr. Jason Servis Ara Aprahamian 6 F (t) 1:11.26 L $90,000
2017 Engage 2 José Ortiz Chad Brown Woodford Racing LLC 6 F (d) 1:10.09 G3 $90,000
2016 Theory 2 Javier Castellano Todd A. Pletcher China Horse Club/WinStar Farm 6 F (d) 1:09.91 G3 $120,000
2015 Annual Report 2 Joe Bravo Kiaran McLaughlin Godolphin Racing 6 F (d) 1:09.82 G2 $120,000
2014 Blofeld 2 John Velazquez Todd Pletcher Glencrest Farm/JSM Equine 6 F (d) 1:09.49 G2 $120,000
2013 In Trouble 2 Joseph Rocco Jr. Tony Dutrow Team D 6 F (d) 1:09.64 G2 $120,000
2012 Overanalyze 2 John Velazquez Todd Pletcher Repole Stable 6 F (d) 1:11.46 G2 $120,000
2011 Jack’s in the Deck 2 Joe Bravo Robin L. Graham Skeedattle Stable 6 F (d) 1:13.36 G2 $90,000
2010 Race not held
2009 D’ Funnybone 2 Edgar Prado Richard E. Dutrow Jr. Paul Pompa Jr. 7 F (d) 1:22.40 G2 $150,000
2008 Charitable Man 2 Alan Garcia Kiaran McLaughlin M/M William K. Warren 7 F (d) 1:24.30 G2 $150,000
2007 Tale of Ekati 2 Eibar Coa Barclay Tagg Charles E. Fipke 7 F (d) 1:22.33 G2 $150,000
2006 King of the Roxy 2 John Velazquez Todd Pletcher Team Valor 7 F (d) 1:24.00 G2 $150,000
2005 Private Vow 2 Jerry Bailey Steve Asmussen Mike McCarty 7 F (d) 1:24.00 G2 $180,000
2004 Park Avenue Ball 2 Javier Castellano James T. Ryerson Char-Mari Stable (Charles & Marianne Hesse) 8 F (d) 1:38.80 G2 $120,000
2003 Cuvee 2 Jerry Bailey Steve Asmussen Verne Winchell / Spendthrift Farm 8 F (d) 1:35.60 G1 $120,000
2002 Whywhywhy 2 Edgar Prado Patrick Biancone P. Biancone/Fabien Ouaki 8 F (d) 1:36.20 G1 $120,000
2001 Race not held
2000 Burning Roma * 2 Rick Wilson Anthony W. Dutrow Harold Queen 8 F (d) 1:37.80 G1 $120,000
1999 Bevo 2 Joe Bravo William Badgett Jr. Peter Callahan 8 F (d) 1:36.00 G1 $90,000
1998 Lemon Drop Kid 2 John Velazquez Scotty Schulhofer Jeanne G. Vance 8 F (d) 1:37.40 G1 $90,000
1997 Grand Slam 2 Gary Stevens D. Wayne Lukas R. & C. Baker/W. Mack/D. Cornstein/M. Tabor/J. Magnier 8 F (d) 1:35.60 G1 $90,000
1996 Traitor 2 John Velazquez Mary Eppler Alfred Gwynne Vanderbilt Jr. 8 F (d) 1:35.20 G1 $90,000
1995 Maria’s Mon 2 Robbie Davis Richard Schosberg Rosalind Rosenthal 8 F (d) 1:35.00 G1 $90,000
1994 Montreal Red 2 José A. Santos Scotty Schulhofer Vendome Stables (James Miller & partners) 8 F (d) 1:36.20 G1 $66,180
1993 Holy Bull 2 Mike E. Smith Warren A. Croll Jr. Warren A. Croll Jr. 7 F (d) 1:23.20 G1 $69,360
1992 Strolling Along 2 Chris Antley C. R. McGaughey III Ogden Phipps 7 F (d) 1:23.60 G1 $72,120
1991 Agincourt 2 Jorge Chavez Nick Zito Robert Perez 7 F (d) 1:23.80 G1 $73,140
1990 Eastern Echo 2 Jerry Bailey MacKenzie Miller Rokeby Stables 7 F (d) 1:22.40 G1 $69,360
1989 Senor Pete 2 José A. Santos Scotty Schulhofer Michael G. Rutherford 7 F (d) 1:23.20 G1 $75,360
1988 Trapp Mountain 2 Ángel Cordero Jr. George R. Arnold II Loblolly Stable 7 F (d) 1:23.80 G1 $74,280
1987 Forty Niner 2 Eddie Maple Woody Stephens Claiborne Farm 7 F (d) 1:22.60 G1 $80,100
1986 Gulch 2 Ángel Cordero Jr. LeRoy Jolley Peter M. Brant 7 F (d) 1:22.20 G1 $82,920
1985 Ogygian 2 Walter Guerra Jan H. Nerud Tartan Farms 7 F (d) 1:22.40 G1 $90,600
1984 Spectacular Love 2 Laffit Pincay Jr. Laz Barrera Dolly Green 7 F (d) 1:23.20 G1 $105,900
1983 Swale 2 Eddie Maple Woody Stephens Claiborne Farm 7 F (d) 1:24.00 G1 $72,915
1982 Copelan 2 Jerry D. Bailey Michael Griffin Fred W. Hooper 7 F (d) 1:24.20 G1 $97,110
1981 Irish Martini 2 Jorge Velásquez Richard DeStasio Seymour Cohen 7 F (d) 1:24.40 G1 $103,605
1980 Tap Shoes 2 Ruben Hernandez Howard M. Tesher Leone J. Peters 7 F (d) 1:23.80 G1 $85,605
1979 Rockhill Native 2 John Oldham Herbert K. Stevens Harry A. Oak 7 F (d) 1:22.00 G1 $90,150
1978 Crested Wave † 2 Jean Cruguet Ross Fenstermaker Fred W. Hooper 7 F (d) 1:24.00 G1 $75,600
1977 Affirmed 2 Steve Cauthen Laz Barrera Harbor View Farm 7 F (d) 1:21.60 G1 $63,570
1976 For The Moment 2 Eddie Maple LeRoy Jolley Gerald Robins 7 F (d) 1:23.20 G1 $67,353
1975 Soy Numéro Uno 2 Jacinto Vásquez Homer C. Pardue Joseph R. Straus 6.5 F (d) 1:17.80 G1 $66,408
1974 Just The Time 2 Marco Castaneda John P. Campo Buckland Farm 6.5 F (d) 1:16.40 G1 $66,801
1973 Wedge Shot 2 Jacinto Vásquez Charles R. Parke Fred W. Hooper 6.5 F (d) 1:17.00 G1 $82,230
1972 Secretariat 2 Ron Turcotte Lucien Laurin Meadow Stable 6.5 F (d) 1:16.40 $82,320
1971 Riva Ridge 2 Ron Turcotte Lucien Laurin Meadow Stud 6.5 F (d) 1:16.60 $87,636
1970 Salem 2 John L. Rotz Edward L. Holton Christiana Stable 6.5 F (d) 1:16.80 $99,333
1969 High Echelon 2 John L. Rotz Hirsch Jacobs Ethel D. Jacobs 6.5 F (d) 1:18.40 $92,807
1968 Top Knight 2 Manuel Ycaza Raymond Metcalf Steven B. Wilson 6.5 F (d) 1:16.20 $88,283
1967 Captain’s Gig 2 Bill Shoemaker William W. Stephens Cain Hoy Stable 6.5 F (d) 1:15.80 $90,495
1966 Bold Hour 2 John L. Rotz Bert Mulholland George D. Widener Jr. 6.5 F (d) 1:17.60 $91,084
1965 Priceless Gem 2 Walter Blum Hirsch Jacobs Ethel D. Jacobs 6.5 F (d) 1:17.20 $93,827
1964 Bold Lad 2 Braulio Baeza William C. Winfrey Wheatley Stable 6.5 F (d) 1:16.00 $85,566
1963 Bupers 2 Avelino Gomez Buddy Jacobson Marion R. Frankel 6.5 F (d) 1:17.40 $90,974
1962 Never Bend 2 Bill Shoemaker Woody Stephens Cain Hoy Stable 6.5 F (d) 1:17.20 $94,348
1961 Cyane 2 Manuel Ycaza Henry S. Clark Christiana Stable 6.5 F (d) 1:17.20 $85,650
1960 Little Tumbler 2 Ray Broussard William R. Mitchell Meadowbrook Stable 6.5 F (d) 1:16.60 $87,456
1959 Weatherwise 2 Eddie Arcaro John M. Gaver Sr. Greentree Stable 6.5 F (d) 1:18.60 $88,470
1958 Intentionally 2 Bill Shoemaker Edward Kelly Sr. Brookfield Farm 6.5 F (d) 1:16.20 $80,690
1957 Jester 2 Paul J. Bailey Bert Mulholland George D. Widener Jr. 6.5 F (d) 1:16.20 $81,005
1956 Bold Ruler 2 Eddie Arcaro James E. Fitzsimmons Wheatley Stable 6.5 F (d) 1:15.20 $91,145
1955 Nail 2 Hedley Woodhouse George P. Odom Josephine P. Widener 6.5 F (d) 1:16.80 $100,425
1954 Nashua 2 Eddie Arcaro James E. Fitzsimmons Belair Stud 6.5 F (d) 1:15.60 $88,015
1953 Porterhouse 2 William Boland Charlie Whittingham Llangollen Farm 6.5 F (d) 1:16.00 $92,875
1952 Native Dancer 2 Eric Guerin William C. Winfrey Alfred G. Vanderbilt II 6.5 F (d) 1:14.40 $82,845
1951 Tom Fool 2 Ted Atkinson John M. Gaver Sr. Greentree Stable 6.5 F (d) 1:17.20 $86,710
1950 Battlefield 2 Eddie Arcaro Bert Mulholland George D. Widener Jr. 6.5 F (d) 1:15.40 $81,715
1949 Guillotine 2 Ted Atkinson John M. Gaver Sr. Greentree Stable 6.5 F (d) 1:15.60 $87,585
1948 Blue Peter 2 Eric Guerin Andy Schuttinger Joseph M. Roebling 6.5 F (d) 1:14.60 $88,410
oopps….looked shorter…….but you get the idea………the futurity winners ………how many derbys? or how many even ran?
Didnt mean it to take up that much space….no edit button
I’m not sure what the purpose of this is. Please tell me you didnt type all this out.
He believes that it’s evidence to rebut an argument that NOBODY is making.
Unreal!
How did the name of the 1948 winner get by The Jockey Club?
It’s the name of a flag used by the Royal Navy since the 18th century, meaning the ship is going to sail and all passengers/crew should return immediately.
Innuendo in British humor goes back as far as Chaucer. 😉
There’s a lake in Oregon named Green Peter.
LOL. Maybe it was named (or renamed) for Peter Green of Fleetwood Mac.
“England expects that every man will do his duty” – arguably, the most famous flag signal.
Stuff like this is why I love Sec.com. Thumbs up, Provet
Thanks……they don’t respect truth….
You can’t handle the truth!
Only a few good men can say that…
Fascinating look at DWL and the Belmont, Steve. Kinda funny that Lukas’s last five Belmont starters ran in all three TC races.
Excellent info. Also funny that he hasnt won the Belmont since Commendable
It’s because they were on TV…….How many has he over matched in the last decade…….he loves to be on TV. It’s really sad.
How many Lukas runners were overmatched in the Belmont in the last 10 years? Here are his Belmont Stakes horses in the last 10 years:
2018 — Bravazo was second in the Preakness (finished 6th)
2013 — Oxbow won the Preakness; Will Take Charge was well-beaten in the first 2 legs of the TC (finished 2nd)
2012 — Optimizer was well-beaten in the first 2 legs and the Ark Derby (finished 10th)
So, would you agree that two had every right to be in the Belmont and two should not have been entered? And that in 2 of 3 Belmonts, Lukas had legitimate contenders?
Now do all the tv races……
Do it yourself for a change.
That trainers who loose the Derby skip the Preakness to run in the Belmont is so engrained in my brain now that I was disappointed neither Mandaloun or Midnight Bourbon opted in. Midnight Bourbon, especially, would have been my pick. Thanks, Steve, for the back story and the call-out to D. Wayne, who is and was a great trainer for our times.
D Wayne is The Man! Mickelson too.
One is and he hits golf balls.
It is very simple. Horses actually break their legs every time they run. They damage cartilage, strain tendons etc. 2 weeks is not enough time to heal.
Why run horses worth millions back in 2 weeks? You might as well drive your 100k car around with no oil….
It’s like a mystery, how people don’t know this. Pick a year. Look at how many horses lasted after the triple crown. The triple crown takes a toll….racing hurts horses.
People still say things like “bottom”….how having alot of races is great, leading into derby…..You are wrong. It is a lie.
If it were true, 2 yr old champs would win ….being great as a 2 yr old is almost being an automatic throw out for derby……but every year……..people say you want a horse to have alot of races?…..It is not true. In fact, it is what you DON’T want.
People still can’t understand why we run once a month……do you know how long this is?…….it is because they need time to heal….
Too bad you werent around in th 30s, 40s, 50s, 60s, and 70s. Those four-legged things running around the track every two weeks for several years without breaking down or suffering serious injuries must have been some other animal.
How can you question the “pro vet”? What would we know?
He makes comments as if racing has no history.
He recently stated Barry Irwin is “looney”. He only wishes he was as bright.
Ha……..notice Steve said nothing?…….i bet he knows……..
I schooled Barry…….he had to apologize……saying he was wrong………the leader of a movement?….that doesn’t even know Lasix doesnt mask anything?…….How is that possible?…….its possible because he talks about things he doesnt know …..
That seems like something you have to know, to be the leader of a movement .
He admitted. it doesnt matter if lasix works or not……he is against any med………
You should have a fraction of the knowledge Irwin has.
You can say it…..it doesnt make it true………name the top 2 yr old race late in the year…before the cup……you already know the cup ones….its ridiculous how few have won. So, pick the one you want……then write down the top 3 finishers…..of any year you randomly pick…. these are all the top horses right?……look and see how many are missing for the derby. Ran good in the derby, or even won. Then pick another year……then another. Most of them were not even around….this LIE is still being told. You are picking the best race with the best horses. How do so many go away?
he doesnt know a fracture is a broken leg?…….below? explain a strain? explain everything?…….hey eddie make another joke.
When I went to the track there were 9 races a day. I am referring to ALL of them, not just stakes.
Five days a week, and Pomona Fair was 15 days STRAIGHT, and sometimes on closing day Oak Tree would also be running…
Horses would run 3 times at Pomona…
Codex ran on the 1/2 mile Pomona Fair track as a two year old, won Preakness by six….before they made it 5/8, and banked the turns….Squirtle Squirt and Lava Man ran at Fairplex….
tee-hee
And the Derby Trial used to be run four days before the Derby.
You really need to be precise when you pontificate. “Horses actually break their legs every time they run.” Are you speaking of microfractures that build up over time and are mostly undetectable, even by x-rays? If so, just say it.
As for those who talk about horses having “bottom”: Who said that “alot of races” is the definition of “bottom”? Nobody I’m aware of. So you concoct something to make an irrelevant point.
“…why we run…” — Are you a horse?
You again try to be smart. You know exactly what i’m saying. If you disagree, then debate it. I’m right. You DO NOT RUN MILLION DOLLAR HORSES BACK IN 2 WEEKS…..you guys keep trying to fight it…..it is true. That is horrible business. Try being around horses. What i’m saying is not even close to wrong. Why you guys fight this is a joke. Enough of this “horses are weaker stuff”….but you don’t know why…..
How many years of 2 yr old champs not winning the derby have to go by, before you get it……by the way, street sense had only 2 preps…unheard of 30 yrs ago…..so yes, if you have a champ. Fewer starts helps your chances. Again, you guys should understand what racing does to horses.
Words are important. Clear communication is important. When you write “break their legs,” people aren’t thinking about microfractures. They assume you mean serious injuries that could be career ending or fatal.
Two races as a 3yo before a winning Derby performance may not have been the preferred route prior to Street Sense, but it wasn’t “unheard of.” In fact, in the same Derby that Street Sense won, four other horses had two 3yo preps. Closing Argument and Lion Heart were 2nd in the 2005 and 2004 Derbies. Sunny’s Halo, Jet Pilot, Hoop Jr., Count Fleet, Shut Out, and War Admiral all had just 2 starts as 3yos before their Derby wins.
What is more impressive then this amazing blog is your incredible memory of all this. Steve you are like the
“Energizer Bunny” you just keep going and getting better with age.
You are like a vintage “French Bordeaux” wine.
For me, the most impressive person was Woody Stephens. Five Belmont’s in a row is a record that I can’t see ever to be broken. Woody had Swale, Forty Niner, Devil’s Bag & Cannonade to name a few of his greats,
Pletcher, Baffert & the Lukas early version usually got the best horses so I would tend to believe that the likelihood of their success is greater then Woody Stephens.
Thank you Deacon. Unfortunately what were once grapes and plums are now raisins and prunes. If you like history wait until Thursday’s column. As for Woody, his feat was certainly the most impressive but it didnt change the face of the Belmont, which is what this is about. The Belmont remained unchanged after Woody. But not after Commendable.
The raisins & prunes analogy was hysterical. I have always been fond of Stephens so my response was probably a little biased.
Shrewd analysis. Perhaps this is part of the reason I have been unimpressed by so many 21st century Belmont winners. Yes, several went on to run and win some top races at 3 and even 4, but others never ran again, and few have made much mark at stud. They were good horses, but not Hall-of-Fame great horses. My Great (or shouldabeen Great) Exceptions: American Pharoah, Rag to Riches, and Afleet Alex. I know I ought to include Justify and Empire Maker, but neither grabbed my heart. I’m so subjective.
I hoping Essential Quality, Hot Rod Charlie (my Derby pick), or Rombauer comes through.
Hi Steve
I’m looking forward to your analysis on the Belmont Stakes. I’m still licking my wounds for missing my big Futures bets on Rock Your World, but that’s horse racing. Prat has opted to ride Hot Ride Charlie, (instead of Rombauer) so that’s a side story in itself. HRC finished a very close 3rd in the Derby, skipped the Preakness, so I can only assume you didn’t mention him on this thread because of his Derby in the money finish. Just for clarification, I’m still on board with RYW, and expect a gate to wire finish in the Belmont. Although I’m wondering if Sadler will stick with Rosario aboard RYW, or go back to Rispoli.
With Midnight Bourbon skipping the Belmont Stakes, I believe the order of finish will be something like the following:
RYW, 1st
Essential Quality, 2nd
Known Agenda, 3rd
Rombauer, 4th
Hot Rod Charlie, 5th
There is no way I want a jockey who has never ridden at Belmont Park, especially at a mile and a half. Prat had a commitment to ride HRC in the Belmont from what I hear.
Thanks for the reply Steve.
Based on your reply, is it you contention that Sadler will stick with Rosario aboard RYW?
Thanks Steve.
I dont see why not. If he doesnt I sure wouldnt go to a rider who has never ridden at Belmont
Was Michael Kinane on Go and Go the last jockey without previous experience at Belmont Park?
Last WINNING jockey
Jeremy Rose on Afleet Alex probably fits in here but he would have had mounts prior to the Belmont Stakes. Mike Kinane may also have had mounts prior to the Belmont Stakes but my memory isn’t that sharp.
Steve would no doubt know better than most.
Spend A Buck skipped the Preakness to run in the Jersey Derby which offered a $2,000,000 bonus for any horse who won the Cherry Mile, the Garden State, the Kentucky Derby and Jersey Derby. He won the Jersey Derby by a mere neck over Creme Fraiche (who went on to win the Belmont) so it’s questionable whether he would have been up to the task of winning the Triple Crown.
Can’t wait to read that article! Looking forward to the Belmont.
John Sadler—it just LOOKS like he is holding the Ace–horse has a lot of natural speed, but he doesn’t break out of there at all—this time Joel won’t be leaning back–he knows he needs to get the big horse running, horse won’t come out on his own….perhaps because of his Derby fiasco, he might be a fat 6-1–maybe higher—so….I’m looking that way, but they–meaning Essential Quality and Hot Rod Charlie–may just send, as well, so I’ll use a deep closer for my exacta box–hmmm, let’s see, who is a good closer….
Stated before my contention is if EQ is there-between these two.
Kind of ironic that Lukas skipped a dance here and there…he’s the one trainer who still would run in all three–after losing the Derby—they all used to run in all three, except for Gregson, who said in 1981 he would never think of running in the Preakness, after running in the Derby—I think Spend A Buck skipped the Preakness because of a bigger purse incentive, but that was a long time ago, and my memories aren’t all that anymore, probably never were!
That’s unfortunately he’s always been. My view is don’t run in all 3 if losing Derby.
Agree. Heck, if you have a decent second-tier 3yo you can make money running in those smaller track Derbies….
Thanks Matthew! I mean, when Travers,Haskell,etc on horizon,why cook a horse,especially if Derby is lost? Bad management! Horses simply don’t hold up compared to days of Kelso,etc. Some refuse to accept reality.
Dear Steve,
I’m a bit late, but I just read your article on “Legacy of Eddy Sweat”. Magnificent. Well deserved tribute to a special man. JB