Tripoli a “Shore” Thing in Breeders’ Cup Classic
With our previous longshot Dr Post apparently not running in the Breeders’ Cup Classic let’s go back to the bench and find a suitable pinch hitter who has the ability to knock one out of the park.~ Steve Haskin
Tripoli a “Shore” Thing in Breeders’ Cup Classic?
By Steve Haskin
Now that it appears as if Dr Post will not run in the Breeders’ Cup Classic I will just take his jockey Irad Ortiz and transfer him onto another horse I believe could be a live longshot. And that is Tripoli, a horse who has a lot to recommend him, especially considering his success over the Del Mar surface.
One might look at Tripoli’s past performances and ask why it took so long to put a horse with an eight-race losing streak on grass in a dirt race and then discover he was a dirt horse all along.
Well, the answer might have been that he is by Kitten’s Joy, a champion grass horse who is a seven-time leading grass sire and has sired the winners of several Breeders’ Cup turf races and European classics. In addition he has made zero impact as a dirt sire.
But there is a reason why his offspring have made little or no impact on dirt and that is because no one ever runs them on dirt. One look at Kitten’s Joy as a sire and it’s automatically on the grass. And that no doubt is why trainer John Sadler kept running Tripoli in allowance grass races even though he was nothing more than mediocre and headed for an undistinguished career.
When you really look at it, though, Tripoli is out of a Tapit mare and that alone would seem like an inducement to try the dirt, especially if you have an allowance horse whose career doesn’t seem to be going anywhere. Also, let’s remember that Kitten’s Joy’s sire El Prado, although a champion 2-year-old in Ireland and being by Sadler’s Wells, is the sire of Medaglia d’Oro, one of the top dirt horses of this century, who won the Travers, Whitney, Oaklawn Handicap, Donn Handicap, and three other graded stakes, while placing in the Belmont Stakes, Breeders’ Cup Classic twice, Dubai World Cup, and Pacific Classic. At stud, Medaglia d’Oro has sired the great Rachel Alexandra, as well as top-class dirt fillies Songbird and Elate and a number of other major stakes winners on dirt. El Prado also is the sire of Paddy O’Prado, who finished third in the Kentucky Derby in his dirt debut.
As for Tripoli, he had been turning in several outstanding works on dirt, including a powerful six-furlong drill in company in 1:12 4/5. But his move to the dirt after 11 grass races was by necessity, not by design.
“He needed to run and was working lights out (on dirt), but there were no turf races for him, only a dirt allowance race,” said co-owner Kosta Hronis. “So, boom, we were in and got a big surprise.” In other words, genius often is achieved by accident.
As Sir Alexander Fleming, who was experimenting with the influenza virus, said when he returned from a two-week vacation, “What’s that mold growing?”
Now, I’m certainly not comparing the accidental discovery of penicillin with the discovery that Tripoli is a dirt horse, but John Sadler and the Hronis brothers are going to make a lot more money from their discovery than Fleming did. And their biggest payday could be in two weeks.
One thing about the Hronis horses, they age well, much like their grapes. In 2018 they had a horse named Accelerate, who appeared to be having a mediocre career, having won only four of his 15 starts for earnings of $786,000 and three stakes victories (two Grade 2 stakes and a listed stakes). Then, at age 5, he won five Grade 1 stakes and a Grade 2 stakes, including the Breeders’ Cup Classic, Santa Anita Handicap, and Pacific Classic for earnings of over $5 millon.
Could Tripoli be heading down that same path? He is going to have tough competition from Knicks Go, Essential Quality, Medina Spirit, Art Collector, Hot Rod Charlie, and Max Player, and has to make up eight lengths on Medina Spirit off his defeat at the hands of the Kentucky Derby winner in the Awesome Again Stakes.
But the Breeders’ Cup Classic looks to have a totally different script, with Tripoli having a much more favorable part.
Let’s go back to his rebirth this past June 19. He had ended his eight-race losing streak seven weeks earlier with a nose victory in an allowance race. It was only his second career victory in 11 starts, both by margins of a nose. It didn’t matter what distance Sadler ran him – five furlongs, 5 ½ furlongs, six furlongs, 6 ½ furlongs, one mile, 1 1/16 miles or 1 1/8 miles – it was all pretty much the same result. It was a forgettable career on the road to nowhere.
Then on June 19, Sadler was basically forced to try the dirt when he couldn’t find another allowance grass race, and lo and behold he scored a game half-length victory, with his Beyer speed figure jumping from an 88 to a 100 and his Thoro-Graph figure from a “6 ¾” to a “2 ½.”
Sent to Del Mar, he closed fast to finish second, beaten a half-length by graded stakes winner Express Train, in the grade 2 San Diego Handicap, despite breaking from the outside post and going four-wide on both turns. As it turned out the 1 1/16-mile distance was too short for him.
Stretching out to 1 ¼ miles in the grade 1 Pacific Classic, he again showed good tactical speed, this time from the inside. He was put to pressure around the far turn and just kept pouring it on. He was eased off the rail, ran right by Tizamagician nearing the eighth pole, and dew clear to win by 1 ¼ lengths, with a gap of 4 ½ lengths to the third horse. This time his Beyer number jumped to a 104 and his Thoro-Graph number to a “negative-½.”
Many will look at his fourth-place in the Awesome Again Stakes as the 5-2 second choice, beaten 8 ¼ lengths, as a reason to throw him out in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. If he couldn’t be competitive against Medina Spirit, how can he possibly reverse the tables on him and also defeat all those other top-class horses?
Well, first off, they are back at Del Mar. Medina Spirit will not be able to control the pace this time with the presence of three other brilliant pace horses – Knicks Go, Art Collector, and Hot Rod Charlie – all of whom want to be on or just off the pace. Knicks Go is by far the fastest horse in the race, but has never been 1 ¼ miles. Essential Quality, Tripoli, Max Player, and Idol as the only horses who have won going 10 furlongs, with Tripoli having already done it at Del Mar.
As for the Awesome Again, Tripoli raced so wide every step of the way he still received the same “negative-1/2” Thoro-Graph number he did in the Pacific Classic, which was only three-quarters of a point slower than Medina Spirit.
I am not saying I love Tripoli to win this race. He hasn’t been facing horses anywhere near the quality of the horses he’ll be facing in the Classic. I’m not even saying he can outclose Essential Quality and Max Player, the two horses who should be right with him behind the leaders in midpack. I am saying that if you are looking for a longshot who could be an overlay over his home track, over a distance at which he’s already won, and with a pace setup that should suit him, then he could be worth a play and certainly worth putting in the exotics. Sadler has proven he has the ability to get horses to peak at 4 and 5 and the switch from Pereira to Ortiz has to move him up. With only four starts on dirt, we really have no idea how high his ceiling is and how much more improvement he has in him.
Photo courtesy of Eclipse Sportswire
Re: 2022 Kentucky Derby
Hi Steve,
If a horse wins the final or final two major Prep to the 2022 Kentucky Derby and is not allowed to run in the race, should the Grade I status of the race be downgraded to a “Restricted Stake” Race?
We know it could happen this year.
Here is the required criteria for the race(which we all know):
“The Kentucky Derby is restricted to 3-year-old racehorses, male or female, so a Thoroughbred is eligible for the race only once in their lives. Horses must be nominated to the Triple Crown and then qualify for the Kentucky Derby through a series of races that award points to the top four finishers.”
Merry Christmas Everyone
Hey Steve and all!
Since the conversation seems to be turning to potential upsets and long shots. I have one that I would like to comment on.
In the Juvenile Turf Fillies there is filly named California Angel. She punched her ticket to the BC by winning the Jessamine G-2. You can watch the race replay on Horse Racing Nation web page.
This was her third race. She broke her maiden in her first race on September 03 on turf @ one mile, took 3rd on first on September 30 on dirt @6f (3 Starts: 2 – 0 – 1, $213,700).
She was bred by Irish National Stud and sold for $5,500 Ocala Breeders’ Sale to Chris Walsh. Her trainer is George Leonard lll and her jockey is Rafael Bejarano.
Her sire is California Chrome and her dam is Sea Mona (damsire is Tiz Wonderful. I think she has a excellent distaff breeding. In addition to Tiznow there is Hennessey twice (Storm Cat), Ogygian and Capote.
She is a beautifully bred filly with nice conformation.
She seems to have inherited Chrome’s turn of foot and his stretch burst of speed.
This will be the first trip to the BC for her trainer, George Leonard lll and is of course the first trip to the BC for a Chrome progeny.
So far California Chrome is proving to be a broodmare sire and his fillies both here and in Chile and Japan are winning on dirt and turf.
She will have her work cut out for her, I know that. She will be running against some high dollar fillies by very well known Blue Blood sires trained by very prominent trainers and ridden by well-known jockeys. But I think she can do it and I will be cheering for her, Mr Leonard and Rafael.
To me her story is the heart and soul of horse racing. She is the stuff dreams are made of and what keeps me coming back year after year to watch horse racing.
If youre looking for a horse to possibly upset Letruska or at least finish right behind her, go to XBTV and watch Clariere’s work in company with Max Player. Asmussen put her in front, no doubt to keep her in the hunt chasing Letruska. Not only could Max Player, a Classic contender, not catch her, he was under the whip while she was not being asked. He was also being asked on the gallop-out and still couldnt get by her. Just thought I would mention a sneaky good work that probably went unnoticed.
Hey Steve
During this morning’s work, Letruska was joined by another horse which was not part of the plan. Letruska’s trainer, Fausto Gutierrez was not pleased with that intervention. Will this work have any effect on how Letruska performs in the Distaff? We’ll see.
Very impressive. And what does it say about Max Player for the Classic?
NEGATIVES:
His last 4 starts outside NY have yielded off the board finishes.
His laborious action is going to lave him spent chasing faster and more efficient movers.
He couldn’t finish ahead of a regressing Art Collector in the Preakness. What’s his prospect of finishing ahead of him in his current 3 race win streak?
Doesn’t have explosive acceleration in the Lane and will not grind pass the high cruisers who can accelerate in the lane.
My having inferred that he cannot win should be a positive for his fans.
Steve a friend told me about Clariere, and I am all on on her! I’m also starting to think Max Player is going to grab a piece of the Classic! Think those two co-workers are both going to run big races!
I agree, Steve – she looks fantastic. Max is not a great work horse, and Steve seems to work him in company mostly when he’s close to a race, to keep give him a target and keep him sharp. Below is someone’s analysis from another board, which makes sense to me. Overall, he’s thriving, and he’ll want every bit of 1 1/4.
My issue with Clairiere is that I just don’t know if she’s fast enough. Even Malathaat’s BSFs aren’t overly fast, though she always does enough to win. The Cotillion came up pretty slow, and she still has yet to beat Mala. That said, by many accounts, Letrushka may be over the top – she had a very odd workout today, and not just because she was hooked by another horse.
“ Some don’t seem to understand he WILL NOT get the lead in the BCC. So, Steve did a very smart thing by putting him with Clairiere who appears to be thriving right now. More importantly, Clairiere was allowed to get a decent lead on him. When Clairiere was hitting her best stride in the stretch, he was making up ground on her. He did NOT need to catch her and pass her. He simply needed to have a target and show some life in the stretch. He did what he needed to do and galloped out well”.
LONGSHOTS:
I am a longshot hunter. But what exactly is my definition of a longshot? It is simply an entrant that the betting public has ignored whom I consider an economically viable investment. If an entrant is assessed to be over matched. It does fit into the definition of a viable longshot. An example is probably the best method of getting my point across.
The BCJ Turf will likely contain three entrants from Europe sired by top stallion Dubawi. Given the resumes’ of these entrants they are likely to dominate the wagering. There are many viable longshot in the American based contingent. But the one I find the most appealing is the last out MSW winner Grafton Street. Why do I find this colt appealing? See below
The colt has 3 career starts on 3 different surfaces i.e., Dirt, Turf & All Weather. After finishing a none threatening 4th over 5F on dirt at Belmont Park. The colt was directed to the G1 Summer Stakes and ran into Albahr who was making his 5th start and who is likely to be the post time favorite for the BCJ Turf. He finished 2nd by 2 1/4L.
The colt was then directed to a MSW over 8 1/2F on All Weather which he won. The reason for the 8 1/2 race was to provide 2Turn experience for the 8F, 2Turns of the BCJ Turf.
This colt is likely to be ignored in the betting with focus on the strong European contingent and his more accomplished America counterparts. But 3 career starts all on different surface isn’t the regular introduction to racing for a young horse. But he acquitted himself well on all 3 surfaces. His last reported work was 5F breeze in 58+.
This colt shouldn’t be a long shot but I suspect he will be. I consider this son of War Front out of a Galileo mare an economically viable investment.
Definately will be overlooked….a possible +15-1 longshot. Worth the play IMO!
Hearing a lot of complaining about big bad Del Mar! IF….they held the Cup back east this year…that would mark FIVE cross-country ships for Hot Rod Charlie, give the little guy a home game!
BC Juvenile Turf thrown into confusion along with the Juv Turf Spring: Annapolis was just scratched with a bone chip. He should be fine, but won’t race until next year.
My horse has chips……he still runs…….lol
BC Turf Sprint……Lieutenant Dan is the real deal, he always shows up with his speed….but there is so much speed….late developing 3yo A Case of You recently finished like a runaway train on Arc Day…..:58 flat, too….fast for that day.
Smile Happy was most impressive in his first start just moments ago at Keeneland. Made a stunning and effortless move on the far turn and won easily.
TDN is placing Smile Happy in the ‘ Rising Stardom’ category…
I love Pleasant Tap (Pleasant Colony) when I see it…!
Wow! Those folks at TDN are quick!
Same connections as Rattle N Roll and I cant remember a female family I loved more than his. That was the kind of move you want to see. He showed an electrifying turn of foot not once but twice. If there are any doubts about the Runhappys going classic distances, this colt;s female family will carry him all day. He aint no sleeper, but this is a Derby horse. Beautiful action, very professional, ran perfectly straight.
I thought of your words last week explaining what you look for in a 2yo. Smile Happy showed all the characteristics you mentioned. Well, with the exception of a decent speed figure….until they’re published. LOL. McPeek holds a pretty good hand right now. And only 6 months to the Derby! 😉
If odds were the same for every horse in the Classic, I would most likely be betting on Essential Quality to win. But he’ll probably go off as the favorite in the 5/2 – 3/1 range, and he doesn’t appear to have a significant advantage. Other runners that have reasonable shots at winning will be more enticing from a gambling perspective.
Someone recently noted that a win by EQ in the Classic would be a first for a BC Juvenile winner. A quick check of BC history finds six previous Juvenile winners (of 37) attempting to win the Classic the following year. Names, records, odds & finish in BCC, and 10f history follow:
*Chief’s Crown (1985), 12 wins in 20 starts, $1.80-1 fav, 4th (won the Travers & Marlboro and ITM in all TC races)
*Rhythm (1990), 6 wins in 14 starts, $2.60-1 fav, 8th (won the Travers)
*Fly So Free (1991), 9 wins in 16 starts, $27.70-1, 4th (5th in Ky Derby, 3rd in Travers)
*Macho Uno (2001), 4 wins in 7 starts, $19.50-1, 4th (no 10f race)
*Street Sense (2007), 6 wins in 12 starts, $2.50-1 fav, 4th (won Ky Derby & Travers)
*Uncle Mo (2011), 5 wins in 7 starts, $5.40-1, 10th (no 10f race)
What does this say about EQ’s chances? Nothing I’m afraid, but it killed some time before the 1st race at Keeneland.
Actually it does say something. He’s going to finish 4th. Lol
Ha! Maybe.
To complement your table I am adding their odds and the number of runners:
*Chief’s Crown (odds 1.8/$) Post-time Favorite – 8 runners
*Rhythm (1990), (odds 2.6/$) Post-time Favorite – 14 runners
*Fly So Free (1991),(odds 27.7/$) – 11 runners
*Macho Uno (2001), (odds 19.5/$) – 13 runners
*Street Sense (2007), (odds 2.5/$) Post-time Favorite – 9 runners
*Uncle Mo (2011), (odds 5.4/$)- 12 runners
Essential Quality will likely be second choice behind Knicks Go… Winning the Belmont Stakes and being almost undefeated separate the son of Tapit from the previous 2-y-o Champions … you see now how I kill my time: looking for more reasons to believe in the Grey Lion…! LOL
I’m with you, Nelson. I’m killing time having finished a massive story on deadline. Love that (after) feeling! Besides, why not an old fashioned plunge on a favorite offering 5-2 or 3-1? A $300 payday on a $100 bet is a pretty good single day return.
Yes Ms Blacktype … one of the key lessons I gathered over time as a horse player is that we should not be carried out by the plain desire for Longshots (big payouts) if you know that there are solid favorites in the race.
Had I bet on more favorites during 40+ years my overall deficit would have been much less …
at the end the house always win…!
You may be right about favoritism. But I think, in the end, many bettors will envision a suicidal speed duel. Either way, they’ll be close in odds with a gap to the third choice.
The final race on Friday— Juvenile Turf—- is loaded with possibilities! I love Mackinnon, who has done nothing wrong around two turns.. .and Dubai Legend…..also the very impressive NY bred Dakota Gold! Was trained for turf but got dirt for his maiden win…and then ran in a $500,000 race and won for fun! NY bred but beat open company like a real nice two year old.
Three Dubawi representatives. That appears to be the TRI.
Albahr — two for two at a mile on BOTH sides of the pond!
I like Modern Games, also…..but those two American horses Dakota Gold and Mackinnon are definite contenders, Mackinnon just ran lights out—and overcame trouble
Go figure. A contentious Breeders’ Cup race! 😉
Yono the winner of a high price maiden claimer was highlighted below. His last to first move weaving through traffic was indeed impressive. His performance versus his pedigree makes for interesting analysis.
A colt sired Quality Road ut of a Bernardini mare should be reasonably expected to possess some amount of tactical speed. He was decent on debut when a 3 3/4L promoted second over 5 1/2F. But he was never a factor next out over 7F when finishing 13L behind Great Escape, Seal Beach and Giant Game. Great Escape and Seal Beach returned to finish 9th & 10th in the Keeneland Breeder Futurity beaten 18 & 19 lengths.
Yono lack of tactical speed is just as puzzling as the following colts:
American Sanctuary – American Freedom out of an E Dubai mare – Both sire and dam sire had excellent tactical speed
Oviatt Class – Bernardini out of a Tiznow mare – Both sire and dam sire had excellent tactical speed
I guess in the absence of tactical speed late race speed is the equalizer. However, as known, horses with late race speed are often pace dependent. They are also vulnerable to high cruiser who can accelerate out of their cruising speed and maintain their gallops to the line.
Performance in relation to pedigree is a mystery that will never be solved.
NB: If Great Escape and Seal Beach finished 9th & 10th in the Keeneland Breeders Futurity, beaten 18 & 19 lengths. What chance does Giant Game has in the BCJ? The Dale Romans colt finished behind both before breaking his maiden on the same day and venue of their shechlacking in the Futurity. Both Yono and Giant Game were next out winners form that MSW.
As I peruse the pre-entry pps, I realize Coldfacts, (whose name my spellchecker changes), must be in sensory overload, what would look better to a longshot player than pps where every horse has talent! I’m using three— from the juvenile—Jack Christopher, who only needs to run his last race to win, sit off Corniche and open up….two I will also use: Oviatt Class, from way off it….and the longshot Tough to Tame, Doyle stays on (instead of American Sanctuary)….Tough to Tame has stepped up and run well, I like this colt, he will need to relax, behind the pace….I think if he does that he can ring the bell! But Jack C looks like the best going in, he stalked and beat the early pace in last and looks to do it again— with the two closers, three—if you want to include the maiden…he caught nice flow in last, probably gets again….lots of pace gonna try and beat Corniche, here….Bob gonna get his win with Gamine, maybe the Derby winner….
I throw out the (slow) time of the race, as Tough to Tame was rank as heck! For 1/2 mile at least! Did not expect such a deep stretch presence, he was nearly there! I’m looking for off the pace, as I think Jack is going to wear down Corniche!
Matt,
I am high on both Tough To Tame and American Sanctuary. If I had to chose one it would be American Sanctuary. The reason being he has a jockey upgrade. Miss Doyle is a nice rider but her limitations were exposed in both the Iroquois and Breeders’ Futurity. . Doyle
Interestingly, Both Tough To Tame and American Sanctuary made their debut in the same race. Tough To Tame was beaten by 12 1/2L and American Sanctuary by 18 1/2L. It appears neither relished the All Weather surface at Arlington Park. But Tough To Tame was able to win his next out start on the surface whilst American Sanctuary left town to break his maiden next out on dirt.
I remain puzzle regarding American Sanctuary. His sire was fast and his dam sire was fast. But he appears to be devoid of tactical speed but has a excellent late race speed. He closed into a 21, 44 pace over 6F to be beaten by 1L in 1:10+ He won over 5F in 57+. He a big colt that is obviously not a sprinter. What exactly he is remains to be seen. But I think he is better than his PPs reflect.
In the end both may beaten like rented mules. But longshots are not support to posses appealing PPs and/or speed figures.
Dale Romans and the owners of Giant Game ($500,000) are very high on the colt. The last out MSW winner is from the last crop of Giants Causeway. The same connection missed winning the BCJ with the more accomplished Not This Time another colt sired by Giants Causeway.. Who knows, it could be this time for them. Hot Rod Charlie was a last out MSW winner and he came up 3/4L short in the BCJ @94/1
I am of the opinion Jack Christopher will not be effective beyond 8F amongst the best of his peers. His stride was shortening in the last 25 meters of the 8F Champagne. I didn’t see the stride extension of a router. But as usual I could be wrong.
Commandperformance doesn’t fit the profile of Todd Pletcher’s past BCJ winners. I consider him to be too slow to hit the board. He doesn’t travel well on the back stretch and appear not suited to tight turns at Del Mar. He was hard ridden a long way out to get into contention in the Champagne. If he was moving efficiently when asked, I would have formulated a different opinion . But was just grinding away with not a lot of late race acceleration. There are several in the field with a similar running style that are far more accomplished.
It would be nice to see Christopher Davis win the BCJ versus all those big-name trainers…and with a colt with a modest pedigree and auction price (either of the two).
Here’s a stat……Every winner of the classic has had 4 legs…….this stat is just as helpful as that other one…..
How many have not finished in the money in their last starts on the entire BC card?………….
Actually some Classic winners have FIVE legs! (two shows nightly!)
Anyone see the 9th at Keeneland today. How in the world did Yono win that? Talk about an explosion from out of nowhere. By Quality Road out of a Bernardini mare. And coming off an atrocious race. Have no idea what to make of this horse, but this was awfully impressive,
When he suddenly darted in mid-stretch, I thought he would knock the #1 horse over the rail. You don’t often see that kind of a rush, especially in a 2yo with a moderate to slow pace in front of him. Are horses ever claimed for $150k? Yono was purchased for $@00k last October.
$100k purchase
Yo no se
I was interested in watching the 5th race for Marr Time debut … but since you mentioned I watched the reply of Yono’s win.
it was really an impressive final rally… and the final time was not bad at all compared to that of heralded Marr Time.
Another Maximum Security in the horizon…?
The Wertheimer and Frere Tapit colt, Zatip, in Keeneland’s Race 7 impressed me. The pedigree gives him a good chance of reaching the top echelon although 10f might be a stretch too far. Worth following though.
Yes! That race was filled with impressively bred first and second timers. Graham Motion has been lights out (4 for 7) in MSWs the past week, on dirt and turf, at Laurel/Belmont/Keeneland, and with real good payouts. Zatip, as you are likely aware, is out of Zaftig who won the G1 Acorn S (Bel, 1m), is a half-brother to Spinoff who won the listed Alydar S (Sar, 9f), and his second dam Zoftig won the G1 Selene (Woodbine, 8.5f) and produced G1 Mother Goose S (Bel, 8.5f) winner Zo Impressive.
We might have a decent idea of his suitability to 10f after his final Ky Derby prep (or his unsuitability well before that). 😉 In the meantime, I’ll be watching for him.
Yes, let’s hope that Graham Motion has a strong Kentucky Derby contender in Zatip. Motion gives racing a good name for the uninitiated to follow. Fingers crossed.
I really thought that, after Flightline, no other Tapit would impress you anymore…LOL
Another good one for the star Sire to follow indeed…!
When it comes to Flightline, don’t limit your scope to just that sire line. Lol. Hopefully, the care with which the connections have treated Flightline comes to fruition in the Malibu Stakes and beyond.
Too much care I would say … Flightline has not had any public workout since August.
Hope he is healthy… somehow it reminds me the case of Instagrand whose owner decided to stop him in August to “preserve” him for a “formidable” 3-year-old campaign… and the once great prospect never won again…
Even with a race planned in December Flightline should be working by now… anyways, as you expect, I trust he will be electrifying 4-year-old…
Everything appears fine, according to Westpoint. If you follow Flightline’s work pattern on their website they skip a month then restart. Stay fast, ‘ye of little faith’ ha ha
“A little faith will bring your soul to heaven; a great faith will bring heaven to your soul.”
Charles Spurgeon
Eddie, he/she is insecure and brings nothing to the table,other than insults as always.
Day one of the Breeders Cup is referred to as future champions day due to the races featuring 2YOs. A P Indy was once referred to a a perfect horse.
I just revisited the Dewhurst Stakes won by Godolphin’s Native Trail. After watching him being unsaddled I had to conclude I have never seen a better specimen of a thoroughbred race horse. If there are perfect horses, Native Trail has to be consider one of them.
I encourage all to view the video that reflect Charlie Appleby’s Dewhurst post race interview with the colt in the back ground. Yon are likely to concur with my assessment. It’s unfortunate that he wasn’t sent to contest the BCJ Turf. But then the really good ones are wintered for the following year Classics.
Godolphin only paid 210,00lbs for the colt. A barging considering he is the Champion 2YO designate.
Tripoli…Idol…Express Train
All three finished out of the money in their last race before the Classic. Can anyone guess how many Classic winners finished OOTM in their previous race? If you guessed ZERO, you are….wrong! The answer is ONE: the 133-1 Arcangues in 1993, who finished 4th in a G2 turf race in France before coming to America and proving that handicapping is overrated.
So one might say that a bet on an OOTM Classic runner every year since 1984 would turn a nice profit. Not likely. There were five entries in the 1993 Classic that finished OOTM in their last race. Of course, Arcangues was judged to be the least likely winner of all of them. Maybe Stiletto Boy is a better win longshot this year than Tripoli, Idol, and Express Train.
Interesting info Eddie, thanks!
These STATS are pretty dumb……..hardly a horse runs that hasnt hit the board……
What causes your obstinance? Abstinence? As you love to tell others, try educating yourself — in this case, an education in horse racing history and terminology. Let’s get you started. Including this year, 86 BC Classic entries finished out of the money in their last race. That’s an average of 2.3 per race (of 38 total Classics). Only in five Classics were no OOTM runners entered. “Hardly a horse”? Ha! On to the terminology lesson: Out of the money means not placing first, second, or third. Off the board means not placing first, second, third, or fourth.
Two more suggestions for the self-styled comedy writer: 1) lighten up and 2) don’t reply to my posts.
Hi EddieF
Thanks for providing an excellent rebuttal to the “self-styled comedy writer”. I would add this suggestion, “Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to open your mouth and remove all doubt”. Why he hasn’t been banned from all the horse racing sites is a mystery to me.
Good luck with your BC picks.
Thanks, Bill. It is a mystery because he clearly violates the written commenting policies on those sites on a regular basis. Sad to say, many others do it, too.
I’m working on my comedy special for YOUTUBE.
To err is human to forgive is Devine
Mark!
Eddie, he/she is insecure and brings nothing to the table,other than insults as always.
You are very insecure!
Rinse/repeat!
Express Train was 3rd….and he likes Del Mar …I wouldn’t consider him a win option, but he could grab 3rd or 4th.
You are correct, Matthew! Thank you. Maybe I was thinking of his next to last race. 😉 Start of the post should have been
Tripoli…Idol
And YES, any of them can round out the exotics. I was referring only to their chances of winning.
“the guy sometimes rubs the wrong way” — LOL. “but so do I” — Matthew, you are not even in the same solar system as the PV. You are not close to being obnoxious. As for thinking he knows what he’s talking about, I’ll leave that open to question because he doesn’t “write” to be understood. And it is NOT about agreeing or disagreeing with posts. I think you know that.
No–not you…but some people–if you disagree with a horse they pick (and everyone has their opinions, it’s Horse Racing!) they get all bent about it–
Yeah, that’s life on the horse racing sites. I’ve stopped commenting on HRN and only read the news. But 99% of the participants on this blog are good-natured fans and bettors who enjoy the discussions.
i don’t put down people’s picks…..
That’s because the Grand High Exalted Mystic Ruler, the emperor of all Raccoondom rules with an iron fist.
Wooooooooooo!
Count me as one who likes reading VET’S posts, I don’t need someone to agree with my every post, the guy sometimes rubs the wrong way, but so do I….and the guy knows what he’s talking about!
See above. Misplaced post.
When someone puts up an obvious stat……that is smart……i say it…….when someone post something useless…….i pointed out how useless it is……….
People take things way too seriously…….
You know me more than them…..you know i’m fair……i don’t get personal…..
When you are a brain surgeon……and people post ignorant things like “you take this spoon……” why can’t you correct them?……
Thanks, Eddie, for sharing your findings… you are to be commended for making these informative posts. I appreciate the time you are devoting to collect Horse Racing data… it really makes a difference…!
In fact, most of the time any sport broadcaster spend on air is spent giving all kind of Stats about their own specialty…
To reciprocate I would bring a brief review around the performance of favorites in the BC Classic.
Out of 37 editions, the post-time favorite has won 10 times (27%), finished second 10 times (27%) and was third (a surprising) two times (5%). The favorite was OOTM 15 times (40.5%).
Some notorious horses who were OOTM are Game On Dude (2 times), Shared Belief, Arrogate and Tiz the Law…
This year (as you may noticed) I am convinced that the 3-year-olds are much better than their elders and that Essential Quality will be Horse of the Year…!
But for the exotics (i.e. 3rd and 4th places) I got the hunch that Idol will be passing a bunch of horses in the stretch… many people will totally dismiss him due to his last race but it was after 7-month-layoff and he will be way better this time… his pedigree and great strides will greatly benefit him.
I just cannot ignore his Big Cap win… !
Thanks, Nelson, but you are the master of historical research. Not surprised about the win and ITM percentages for BCC favorites. The Classic is much more contentious than the typical horse race, so I wouldn’t expect the numbers to be close to the average.
If Idol wins, it would be the greatest training job for the Classic since McLaughlin/Invasor. Which do you think is more impressive: Winning the Classic after a 3-month layoff or after a single lackluster prep following a 7-month layoff?
thanks Eddie for the encouragement…
The latter would be more impressive … however, again I am shooting for 4th or 3rd for the big son of Curlin …!
Apart from your mention to Arcangues, the worst pre-BC performance for a winner was a 3rd place… but even with all those runners at their prime you can see winners paying 30 to 1 (Wild Again) and 20 and 40 to 1. Also there were lot of good payouts for place and show. i.e. the payouts of $10 or more happened 30% of the time for place and 51% for show… hence, my interest in looking for a viable longshot for show precisely…
Tiznow third place in the Goodwood Breeders’ Cup Handicap 20 days before the BC might be considered lackluster and then you saw an epic showing in 2001… “winning for America!!!!”
Correction: not 10 to 1 payout for place or show but 10 to 1 post-time odds to win… place and show are in the order of 6 and 5 to 1 actually
There will be plenty of value opportunities in the Classic!
The pre-entries are out for the two-day Breeders’ Cup event. I was surprised to see only 10 pre-entries for the Classic. Looking even better for a 3YO to upset Knicks Go, just looking at the rundown. Turf races are loaded with entries. Will be interesting to see how the race entries get sorted out over the next few days.
A P Indy was sired by a Triple Crown winner and his dam sired by a Triple Crown winner. Power, speed, stamina and excellence on both sides. As a stallion A P Indy sired a Preakness winner (Bernardini) and Belmont winner (Rags To Riches) but a KD winner proved elusive.
Whilst he didn’t sire a KD winner his tale descendants made up for same. California Chrome and Orb are KD winners sired by his son ( Malibu Moon and Grandson (Lucky Pulpit). The A P Indy sire line has been associated with the winners of most of the major G1 races in America. However, the BCC has proven elusive.
A BCC win for the line can be cannot be far away. The representative of the line have finished 2nd on four occasions. Gunnevera, California Chrome, Effinex and Bernardini came up short. The line will be represented by a strong trio in the 2021 BCC. See below:
Essential Quality – Won his last 3 starts over 12F, 9f & 10F
Art Collator – Won his last 3 starts over 9F
Max Player – won His last 2 starts over 10F
This has to be considered the strongest contingent of A P Indy sire line horses to ever contest the BCC. The winner of the 2021 BCC will clearly emerge form one of the 3 above. But who is it likely to be? In there lies the dilemma.
Max Player is the least likely to win despite his 2 consecutive wins over the BCC distance. He was forwardly place in his last wo outings and emerge the winner. The pace in the 2021 BCC will be fast and if he is too close he will not have af finishing kick. He doesn’t posses an explosive turn of foot and his grinding style will not lead him to a victory closing far off the pace. Further, he finished 11 of 14 in the Saudi Cup. A margin behind the winner and Kinck’s Go not worth mentioning. He is unlikely to reverse placing with Knick’s Go over the extra furlong.
Essential Quality is the epitome of the will to win. His refusal to lose attitude has propelled him to 7 of his 9 victories. But there is a significant bit of information I consider a negative. His last three win have been over fellow 3YOs whose resume’s reflect the following:
Midnight Bourbon – 12 starts; 2 wins – Absent from BCC
Hot Rod Charlie – 11 starts; 4 wins – EQ holds a 2 to 1 recorded in3 meetings
Keepmeinmind – 11 starts; 1 win- Absent from BCC
Essential Quality’s win margin of victory over the above three were minuscule. The 3 above appear to lack the resolve to win. This doesn’t suggest he will be able to defeat older top class opponents with resumes that reflect multiple wins. He is a grinding and versatile sort with a paddling action that will probably not suite reeling in classy high cruisers who can be resolute in the lane.
Art Collector’s His career has been one of pauses. After finishing 2nd & 1st in his first two starts. He was badly beaten in his next 3. He then won his next 4 starts impressively only to follow up with 3 inexplicable bad losses. He is now in the hands of a HOF trainer and on a 3 race win streak.
Amazingly, Art Collet has won all 5 of his 9F starts. His average wining time for his three 2Turns 9F is 1:48.11. Only Kincks go has a better average for 3 consecutive 9F starts. Art Collector was the 2nd choice in the betting in both the Preakness and BC Dirt mile. He was a no show in both. He is now back on track and is ceiling remains unknown as hls last 3 victories were achieved with some amount of comfort.
SUMMARY
If Max Player is too close to the pace he will not finish. If he is too far off the pace he doesn’t posses the late race acceleration to pass all the high cruisers. Essential.
Quality’s narrow margin of victories over his peers, two of who have combined for 3 wins from 23 starts, suggest he will find his older, more accomplished and resolute opponents a serious challenge.
Art Collector ceiling is unknown he hasn’t really been fully extended in his 8 wins. He has the tactical speed and versatility to adapt to any pace scenario. He also his a high late speed rating. Malibu Moon a son of A P Indy sired the line’ first KD winner. Bernardini a son of A P Indy is poised to deliver the line with its first BCC winner.
No handicapping angle ahead of a race should be considered absurd even if same appears warranted.
Thanks for a very thorough analysis. I guess Art Collector is your pick.
COLDCUTS ……..THE CONTRAIAN…….used his real name……..
We’e not even sure of that.
Welcome to the Secretariat blog Señor Mark Palmer… I take you are debuting here despite your writing style being curiously similar to that of the Coldfacts …
Anyways, allow me to contest some of your perceptions. I do not believe for a moment that Midnight Bourbon, Hot Rod Charlie and Keepmeinmind “lack resolve to win”. They run their races eyeballs out against Essential Quality to no avail … the champ (running without marring hitches) is just unbeatable no matter how hard any other horse tries to beat him.
In the case of the Champ, small winning margins do not mean he won’t be able to defeat older horses. It means he is so intelligent and capable that he does just the needful to be first when it counts.
Essential Quality may have not been as dominant as the great Secretariat, Spectacular Bid, Dr. Fager, Seattle Slew, Easy Goer or Ruffian but we concurred he moves like Buckpasser… and a win is a win …
You can not use Max Player’s blunder in Saudi Arabia to disdain him. The son of Code Honor is noticeably better horse now. Moreover, how come you use one aberrant performance against Max Player and not against Art Collector when finishing nine (9) lengths behind Knicks Go in the BC dirt Mile….!
When it comes to upside potential, I also see Essential Quality with more positives than Art Collector’s.
I am sure Mike Smith will ride Art Collector masterfully, but I also see Joel Rosario and John Velazquez performing an epic act dictating the pace of the race. Then the stage will be set for Essential Quality to do what he has been doing in all his races: stalking them and charging when it counts.
And the Grey Lion will be crowned King of the hill !
LOL. You beat me to it!
LOL … I am glad he joined the movement against anonymity and pseudonymity to foster more accountability in the social media realm…
You really think he gave his real name? 🙂
Shh, dont scare old Mark A. away. I was trying to get him to come back under that name. Look below how he corrected himself about Mohaymen one minute later. I love his alter ego. He’s like Superman who thinks people wont recognize him by putting on glasses.
LOL!
Superman…who stood with arms crossed as they were emptying their revolvers at him…then ducked when they threw their guns at him!
And when they made fun of his underpants worn over his pants, he just turned the other cheek.
Yes I do … the computers save your real name while doing transactions. He was so fast in correcting Mohaymen name that that auto filling slept between his fingers …
I don’t think that secretariatdotcom is set up that way. Regardless, it gave us all a good laugh.
It is not related to the blog but with a functionality of Windows and the browsers you are using. It is the autofilling function that you can turn on to expedite filling forms. For instance, here at Secretariat.com my email and name appears automatically in the boxes after writing the first letter and when paying bills.
But we should ask him why he decided to use that name … I might be wrong on this…!
Go ahead. Ask him. 🙂
he had a profile using Mark palmer backwards a couple months ago…….Remlerkram
I thought everyone uses the word whilst. He could have at least changed his style. I gave him kudos to see if he’ll come back under that name. Don’s scare Mark A. away.
Steve, You have made valid points supporting Tripoli as a viable longshot for exotic bets in the BC Classic.
An effective stalker who is a Grade 1 winner over the Classic distance at Del Mar merits some respect.
With his Pacific Classic win, Tripoli became the first Grade1 winner on dirt for Kitten’s Joy.
The case of Kitten’s Joy as a Turf sire is one of self-fulfilling prophecy given his spectacular 3-year-old campaign on the turf. Beyond the golden seventies, it is remarkable for a 3-year-old to be Champion Turf horse; in fact, no other sophomore has achieved that title since 2004 when Kitten’s Joy got it … by the way, Kitten’s Joy was the greatest achievements of Dale Romans with Grass specialists…!
I am not able to fetch the total number of Kitten’s Joy runners who tried the dirt, but I can list some nice progeny who excelled on that surface. Sweet Kitten was the 2009 Champion Imported 2-year-old Filly in Puerto Rico where racing is exclusively on dirt. Also from his first crop was William’s Kitten who easily won the Sunday Silence Stakes on dirt at Louisiana Downs, was runner-up to Super Saver in Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes and was also third in the Holy Bull Stakes. Sweet Kitten and William’s Kitten were the chief earners in Kitten’s Joy’s first crop.
Other Stakes horses on dirt by Kitten’s Joy are Pick of the Litter, Politicallycorrect, Csaba and Empire Builder; but Tripoli is by far the best dirt runner for Kitten’s Joy so far.
After reading your 2013 article “The Joy of Kittens” I wondered why Ken Ramsey was content with pigeonholing Kitten’s Joy as a Turf Sire… after all, the successful horseman is “good and dangerous” enough to attempt more chances on dirt for his superstar sire. Yes… you may mention that he took three sons of Kitten’s Joy to the Kentucky Derby via turf and synthetic tracks with disappointing results.
However, I always felt that Kitten’s Joy progeny needed many more attempts on dirt to try developing dual turf-dirt capacity at the level shown by the offspring of Scat Daddy, War Front and even Dubawi.
Will Tripoli prompt other owners to try their Kitten’s Joys on dirt?
Maybe some of his one hundred 2020 foals will make headways off the grass. Just look at how Ryan’s Cat got a track record while breaking his maiden on the dirt at Belterra park. Additionally, his last three dirt races as a favorite at Aqueduct this year somehow support the idea of Kitten’s Joy adeptness to dirt.
At any rate, Tripoli might find winning the BC Classic to be an Everest challenge, but he is primed for a great campaign next year as a 5-year-old. After all, this was precisely the age at which Accelerate was named Champion older horse for their patient connection.
Looking forward to reading your Breeder’s Cup analysis and recommendations…!
Great stuff, Nelson. Thanks for sharing. Couldnt agree more.
Excellent research, Nelson. KJ has been such an insanely great turf sire that it must be difficult for trainers to think of anything else but turf. But in the rare situation that a runner by KJ disappoints on turf, it seems perplexing that experienced horsemen don’t rethink the situation.
Thanks Eddie… ability on dirt and turf is an interesting topic. Conventional wisdom suggests that great horses are equally great on both surfaces and even at running on “broken glasses”.
For not so great horses we will have to gather more data to know better.
My point is that KJ progeny has not had enough opportunities to show their ability on dirt. It is a case of success leading to lack of opportunities … as you said, some trainers should be more open to expand the horizons of at least some discouraging turf runners.
And it was a valid point that you made. Do you recall Cupid’s Claws? He was second to Tizamagician in July in the G3 Cougar Stakes at Del Mar, but he beat Tizamagician and Combatant last year in the G3 Tokyo City Cup at SA.
They may make more money than Banting, but they won’t be knighted!
than Fleming. Banting was knighted too.
Steve, I think you might be right with Tripoli. Del Mar’s “Breeders’ Cup” last time on the dirt track anyway had a bias which changed just as the tides vary. From memory, the rail on the dirt track was basically dead which tended to play out for closers roaring down the middle of the track. It will depend on the tide, though. Ha ha Good luck, though.
I’m hoping for an Essential Quality win or a Max Player, Art Collector upset would be just as good. There are major races here in Melbourne at Flemington all next week starting this Saturday, with the Melbourne Cup next Tuesday. There is a racing buzz in the air already and the weather is beautiful today.
I had a giggle reading that a horse was having a “mediocre career” having won two Grade 2 races and $786,000 in prize money. Many owners would give their right arm for such a poor performance. Lol. Writer’s license?
I didnt say he was having a mediocre carer, I said he appeared to be having a mediocre career as a 4 year old with only 4 wins in 15 starts. I should have emphasized that he was 1-for-8 as a 4 year old. You used the words poor performance. Mediocre does not mean poor, it means average. He appeared to be having an average career compared to what he would do at 5, having finished 9th, beaten 15 lengths, in the BC Dirt Mile. If he had retired at that point no one would have remembered who he was.
I see the Melbourne Cup is in a little bit of turmoil regarding their testing of horses for soundness with the race having claimed the lives of several horses in recent years. I hope they have a safe race this year.
Steve, last year’s death of Anthony Van Dyke, 2019 Epsom Derby winner, was the seventh Melbourne Cup death in the last eight years, prompting calls for an investigation from the RSPCA. They’ve introduced 41 improvement recommendations, there were actually 44, to make the race safer in the future.
“There will be a reduction in the number of international horses that travel to Melbourne with unprecedented veterinary screening and oversight to be delivered, building upon a series of enhancements made in 2019.“
Not surprisingly, one recommendation rejected was to reduce the field from 24 to 20. Yes, hopefully everything goes well there is some rain coming before the Cup which should make the ground softer. Sometimes the track is described as running on cement when it’s been dry for a long time. It’s supposed to be 82f. next Tuesday for the Melbourne Cup but Melbourne’s is extremely fickle. It may turn out to be 54f. with rain. Ha ha
I realize what you meant re:mediocre, it just made me smile at the time.
Melbourne’s weather can be fickle.
I saw those numbers and was shocked and appalled . I never realized the race took such a toll. Thank goodness that wasnt one of our big races. They would be calling for the ban of racing, as some already are. I sure hope they rectify this and get the course softer and safer. 24 horses is a lot on grass going that far where horses are usually bunched and in tight.
Caulfield racetrack always has a softer, plusher surface than Flemington. Flemington is in a dry pocket of Melbourne while Caulfield, conversely, is in a wet pocket. Melbourne is windy city as well so everything dries out, fast as well. On Saturday, it’s going to be wet and 62f but by Tuesday ‘Cup Day’ it’s now going to be 87f or hotter. No rain from Saturday afternoon to Tuesday. Light rain, not like US east coast or tropical downfalls.
Racing is a major player in the Australian psyche, it’s never threatened of extinction but they are progressive and have improved the sport/breeding no end over the past 40 years.
87? Yuck. Hope its not too hard
Steve, they’ll have to water the track heavily even if the 87 doesn’t come through. Mind you, it could get even hotter which is horrid. Fingers crossed, the rain keeps up to Monday. The roses will be beautiful, if nothing else. Perfect winter for roses here, they are stunning this spring.
That’s what she DIDN’T say.
Hi Steve. I looked at Tripoli’s pedigree and think there is a reasonably good possibility he could pull this off.
His dam, Love Train, was out of Touch Love whose damsire was Not For Love (California Chrome’s dam sire). Love Train’s
grand dam was Smartenof who was sired by Smarten. Smarten had 27 Starts, 11 Wins, 8 Places, 2 Shows Career Earnings: $716,426. American Derby (G2), Ohio Derby (G2), Illinois Derby (G2), Pennsylvania Derby (G2), Marylander H. (G3), Woodlawn S. (G3), Senatorial S., City Of Miami H.
2nd: Travers (G1), Secretariat (G2), Arkansas Derby (G2), Lawrence Realization (G2), Meadowlands Cup (G2), Rutgers (G3), Discovery (G3), Playpen S.
3rd: Tropical Park Derby (G3), Jockey Hollow H.
Another Hot- licious reason to like Hot Rod Charlie–this time no plane flight…..
Game On Dude was based in CA and never hit the board when the BCC was contested at S A Park. He finished 2nd in the BCC at CD. When horse are better than others, home base isn’t an immediate advantage.
Moneymen was based in Florida and had won the Holy Bull and FOY ahead of the FL Derby. Nyquist shipped in from CA and thrashed him.
Mohaymen!!
Thank you for correcting yourself
Its one less stress for the horse….he gas gone back east and done very well, now stays home, going to be fourth choice there’s lots to like.
I will say he would be a popular winner
Your on to something here Steve, now I wonder what TOLSTOY is going to say!
He was too busy writing about another war/
Tripoli fits ideally into my longshot hunt. However, I am of the opinion that there exist another longshot that is more appealing. The likely entrant will have to put its name into action in order to make the board in the BCC. Express Train will have to finish like an express train to achieve this feat. Does the Union Rags 4YO possess the credentials to make the board or win? Let’s see what the cold facts and a bit of history reflect.
BCC VENUE -DEL MAR
Of the likely BCC starters, Express Train has probably the best record (5 starts; 3-1-0). He finished 2nd on debut at Del Mar and broke his maiden next out at the venue. The 4YO has made 14 starts to date and has never won consecutive races. He won his 2nd, 3rd & 4th starts at Del Mar over 3 different years. The venue account for 3 of his 4 career wins. Del Mar appear to be his preferred venue.
His 5th start ran contrary to his previous 4. His 6th place finish as the favorite in the 2021 Pacific Classic, must have left trainer John Shirreffs just as bewildered as the colt’s fans. Something must have gone terribly wrong for the 4YO to be in receipt of a10 3/4L shellacking at its preferred venue. Could it be that nothing went wrong but rather Express Train finds 10F outside his scope? If so. Why is he being considered for the BCC?
In two previous attempt at the distance, he finished 2nd by 1/2L (2:02.46) and 3rd by 4 1/4L (2:02.23). But those 2 races were at S A Park a venue at which he has 1 win from 7 starts. The Pacific Classic completed in (2:02.37) shouldn’t have resulted in a 10 1/2L defeat. Was it an off day for the 4YO? Probably! But his failure at the distance on 3 occasions despite possessing a 10F the pedigree has to be cause for concern.
KD WINNER (2005) –
John Shirreffs’ previous BCC entrants are probably Giacomo his 50/1 upset KD winner and the brilliant Zenyatta. The brilliant mare needs no mention. However, Giacomo path to a 4th place finish in the 2006 BCC can be used to bolster a possible on the board finish for Express Train.
Giacomo like Express Train won the San Diego and finished off the board next out in the Pacific Classic. He then finished 3 in the Goodwood Breeder Cup now the Awesome Again. Express Trian also finished 3rd in the AA after his unplaced finish in the Pacific Classic.
TRAINER –
Express Train and Giacomo have identical records in their 3 starts ahead of the BCC. Giacome returned to the venue of his greatest victory and finished an unexpected 4th @22/1. Express Train will be returning to the site he has recorded 3 of his 4 career wins. He has never lost a return race at the venue.
We have seen this John Shirreffs’ play book before. He won the KD with Giacomo a colt with only a MSW victory. He took him back to CD and was only beaten 4 1/2 by two superstars i.e., Invasor and Bernardini. Express Train has a better overall record than Giacomo and there isn’t a tag team of Invasor and Bernardini in the likely field for the 2021 BCC..
I too, will be using Express Train as my longshot for a piece….under the three main three year olds Essential, Medina and Hot Rod, whom I am leaning towards as my pick to win the race….trainer doing what needs to be done, working behind horses, in anticipation of a torrid pace ….get first run on Essential Quality and then get it on!
I agree that Tripoli is an enticing runner for the bottom of a trifecta. But since I don’t play the tri, I’ll pass. 😉 Had to laugh at the comparison between Sadler’s accidental dirt “discovery” for Tripoli and Fleming’s discovery of penicillin (though I don’t think Fleming’s experiments had anything to do with the influenza virus). HRC is looking good to me as a winner at a good price. I like the spacing of his recent races and the improvement shown from race to race. Is 6-1 too much to ask for?
He did according to everything I read on Google. 6-1 is about right. Depends if they bet Medina.
HRC executed had 3 quick lead changes in the final furlong of the PA Derby. One has to view his action as either due to fatigue or some form of physical issue.
Will he do the same if he is subject to pressure in the BC? He was all over the place close home. With another furlong to negotiate I consider him a risky proposition.
I like Hot Rod……apparently he has white in both eyes, and his handlers believe he does not process what he is seeing—- likely gets the cheater blinkers back on, after two first place finishes….he moved around but there was visible separation down the stretch, at Pennsylvania….5-1, maybe 6-1 fourth choice for a horse that always runs big…..thought his Belmont (loss) was the best performance of the year, around two turns, dirt– by any horse….I say two turns, cuz Flightline’s second race…1:08 flat at Del Mar— was other-worldly….
A few comments:
A 1L defeat in the KD is in deed short. But this hardly suggest said defeat should be viewed in any negative way. Hot Rod Charlie won the longest of the KD Preps i.e., the 9 1/2F L A Derby. The 10F spilt in the Belmont was 2:02.38. This time has won many of KD and other 10F, G1 stakes. Curlin was defeated in the KD by 8L. He followed up with a close 2nd in the Belmont. In his 2nd attempt at 10F he won the Jockey Club Gold Cup.
Given the above, there is no reason to think that HRC’s loss in his first attempt 10F, mean he cannot win the 10F BCC in his 2nd attempt.
“Knicks Go, Art Collector, and Hot Rod Charlie – all of whom want to be on or just off the pace.”
Hot Rod Charlie was 6th some 6 to 8 lengths off the pace in the BCJ, before making a big move approaching the final turn. He raced in 5th some 5L off the pace in the KD. Despite being close to the pace in his recent efforts. He doesn’t have to be either on the lead or just off. the pace.
Art Collector is a very fast horse. Only a few will remember that both his Blue Grass and Ellis Park Derby wining times were the fastest of all 9F KD Preps in 2020. Neither Nadal nor Charlatan recorded faster winning times in their A K Derby divisional wins. His on or just off the pace pattern is due to the fact that few have been faster in his last 3 starts. His 2nd career victory was achieved closing some 7L off the pace. Knicks Go is much faster and If MS choses to engage Knicks Go. Art Collector will be 5L away. I do not consider that margin just off the pace.
TRIPOLI
It would be nice if he could upset the big guns as the returns would be lucrative. But even with the expected contentious pace, he is unlikely to be able to capitalize. He just doesn’t seem to have the late race acceleration required to pull off an upset.
Del Mar switched back to dirt from all weather in 2015. The 2021 renewal of the Pacific Classic was the 2nd slowest of the 7 renewals since the switch. Interestingly, Higher Power which was another Hronis Racing owned PC winner, held the previous slowest time since the switch.
This horse is a bid of a grinder. This isn’t surprising as Tapit it the am sire. It is highly unlikely a grinder will able to get by powerful closers such s Essential Quality and Max player in the lane. But stranger result have emerge in the BCC. Volponi @ 43/1 remains the 2nd longest price winner and he never won a G1 before. Additionally, 4 of his last 5 starts before the BCC were on turf
Pacific Classic day was a strange day, everything was rail winner—inside was dominant….all day….nobody making up ground….still, Tripoli did like Del Maqr…as did Ginobili—-Ginobili 3was a rocket ship at Del Mar, with the blinkers added…..