Unraveling the Fierceness Mystery
The Travers Stakes is shaping up to be arguably the most fascinating race of the year with plenty of questions and pace scenarios. But if you believe in speed figures then the most intriguing aspect of the race is whether or not Fierceness can finally put two good races together. In this column we will attempt to make a case for him doing something he has never done before. ~ Steve Haskin
Unraveling the Fierceness Mystery
By Steve Haskin
As a bettor, trying to analyze Fierceness is in many ways trying to analyze ourselves. Do we simply follow logic or do we try to find reasons to go against it? The logical way of looking at Fierceness going into the Travers is the logical way we look at people in general. If someone shows you who they are, believe them.
No horse in memory has tried to tell us who they are more than Fierceness has. You know the pattern by now: great – terrible – great – terrible – great – terrible — great. It doesn’t take a genius to figure out what’s coming next in the Travers. He is telling us who he is, so, why don’t I believe him? Could it be because I didn’t believe him going into the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile when he tried to tell us he was nothing more than a one-hit maiden wonder after running a dismal race in the Champagne Stakes? My disbelief that day resulted in a $35 win payoff.
Maybe I do feel I owe him for his generous Breeders’ Cup gift, but no, I am not living in the past. That is not the reason I remain stubborn and believe he can put an end to the pattern of inconsistency that has stamped him his entire career, as brief as it has been. I admit he has displayed a possible flaw in his competitiveness when looked in the eye by top-class horses. He has always been a laid-back kind of horse who never “wowed” anyone early on at Ocala Stud where he just went about his business until it was time to get serious and he rarely “wows” anyone now when working in company, which is always. We have, however, seen what he is capable of doing to his workamtes in the gallop-outs on certain mornings.
But you never know when a so-called non-competitive teenager with a ton of ability is going to develop that killer instinct as an adult, and I did see several things in the Jim Dandy Stakes that make me believe he has started to make that transformation.
Before we get to that, let’s look at the bare facts. Fierceness, as stated earlier, is by far the fastest and most brilliant horse in the Travers based on all the speed figures and his huge margins of victory. There is no denying that. The skeptics who are convinced he is non-combative and will be unable to handle the pressure put on him by Dornoch, a proven fighter, as well as Thorpedo Anna and several other classy horses with good early speed, can make a good case. After all, he was basically handed the lead nearing the quarter pole in the Jim Dandy by an inexperienced maiden winner who was in way over his head and offered no challenge. And at that point Fierceness’ main threat, Sierra Leone, was far back as usual and still loading his weapons, while Preakness winner Seize the Grey was not seizing anything and never fired his main weapon, which is speed.
So once again, logic comes into play and Fierceness’ critics have every right to feel, based on what we’ve seen of him, that his chances of out-fighting a warrior like Dornoch and a budding superstar like Thorpedo Anna are pretty slim. Not to forget the unbeaten up-and-comer Unmatched Wisdom and the Ohio Derby winner Batten Down, who both have plenty of early speed. And even if he did, what are the chances of him having enough left to hold off a fully loaded Sierra Leone, especially at a mile and a quarter? And no we’re not forgetting the second most powerful deep closer among the 3-year-olds Honor Marie and the rapidly improving midpack closer Corporate Power.
So why in the world do I believe he can do it? Maybe I’m one of P.T. Barnum’s suckers that are born every minute. Maybe I’m just a contrarian wanting to defy logic and prove everyone wrong. But in my mind I feel the untrustworthy Fierceness we know is not the Fierceness we are going to see in the Travers. And here are the reasons why.
First, let’s look at his roller coaster Thoro-Graph pattern from the start to now – 3 ½…12…negative-1 ½…4 ½…negative-3 ¼…12 ¾…negative-1. None of the others, not Dornoch or Sierra Leone or Thorpedo Anna or Unmatched Wisdom, have run faster than a plus-1. So with three negative numbers, Fierceness towers over his main contenders when it come to speed – on the days he feels like being a superstar, which has never twice in a row. But if he is going to be a championship contender he needs to finally put two links of the chain together. And this is the time.
So did his victory and fast Thoro-Graph number in the Jim Dandy tell us that a clunker is to follow? Not so fast. In his first three monster efforts he won by 11 ¼ lengths, 6 ¼ lengths, and 13 ½ lengths, with his only weapons being raw speed and sheer brilliance. But let us not forget that the only time a top-class horse looked him in the eye it was Muth over his home track in the Breeders’ Cup and Fierceness just shrugged him off and drew away with ease. So we know he has that in him.
The reason I feel he is now capable of putting together back-to-back wins and withstand pressure is that I finally saw a more professional, mature horse in the Jim Dandy who didn’t need to win by a pole. And even with all the speed in the Travers we know he can be effective rating off the pace. Unlike his first three runaway victories using only one weapon, he used new-found weapons this time. After winning his three races by an average margin of 10 lengths he showed he can get down and dirty and win by only a length. Also his smaller margin of victory and negative-1 ½ Thoro-Graph number give him room to return to that negative-3 ½, which would destroy this field. And finally and most important, for the first time in Sierra Leone’s career he was unable to gain any ground in the stretch, and the way they finished he was never going to catch Fierceness.
The running line is very deceiving because just inside the sixteenth pole Sierra Leone actually appeared to be closer to Fierceness than he was at the wire and to me looked like the winner. But Fierceness was actually the stronger horse. And Sierra Leone has proven to be the most powerful stretch-running 3-year-old in the country. So Fierceness met his stiffest challenge from his most formidable foe head-on and turned him aside. Had he finally found that killer instinct?
Now let’s look at that 1 ¼ miles. Sierra Leone and Dornoch are already proven at the distance and the former looks to have an ideal setup in the Travers with all the speed. Yes, Fierceness’ sire City of Light was a top-class miler, but that is exactly what I’d want to see to go with his dam Nonna Bella’s pedigree. In Nonna Bella’s first five generations there are horses who have won an amazing 18 Horse of the Year titles and every one of those horses are in the Hall of Fame. Also in her first five generations are eight Belmont Stakes winners. And her broodmare sire Stay Thirsty and his sire Bernardini both won the Travers.
So the question now is will Fierceness finally put two big races together and break that erratic course he’s been on his entire head-scratching career?
I am not foolish enough or that illogical to tell anyone to bet on Fierceness, especially when you have several far more consistent and dependable horses on whom to wager. I am merely stating the reasons why we could very well see a different, more professional colt whose speed figures we know are way faster than any of his opponents.
I do admit my initial concern was Todd Pletcher indicating after the Jim Dandy that they might want to give him more time between races. Then after his stablemate Mindfame went to the sidelines, owner Mike Repole announced that Fierceness was a definite for the Travers. I have no idea if he needs more than four weeks or not. He ran the best race of his life in the Breeders’ Cup with four weeks between races and he was pretty much a bust in the Holy Bull with 12 weeks between races. All I know is that I saw a different horse in the Jim Dandy. He lit a competitive spark I had not seen before. Now we’ll just have to see if can turn that spark into a fire. Love him or hate him we will at least know who he really is after the Travers. And who he is, or who you think he is, may very well surprise you.
Wagering
As I mentioned, my only reservation is that Pletcher did seem hesitant about running back in four weeks, and if his initial feeling is correct I’m not sure how confident he is. As an old schooler I can’t imagine four weeks not being enough time between races for a sound, talented champion. So, not being around the horse every day, all I can do is speculate and trust he is up to the task as he was in the Breeders’ Cup. I still believe he could be an overlay at 3-1 considering what I know he is capable of on his best day and would take a shot going all-in at a decent price. But just in case Pletcher’s initial concerns prove correct and with the likely pace scenario I would back it up with a Sierra Leone — Fierceness exacta. And if Sierra Leone runs big I can see Honor Marie, with the addition of blinkers, finishing off a big triefecta with both Fierceness and Sierra Leone on top, especially considering these two were the only horses who were ranked No. 1 in the Derby Rankings all winter and spring.
But boy does that leave out several top-class horses, which shows you how good a field this is. My final thought on Fiereness is this — I would rather get fooled by him again than give up on him now after that Jim Dandy performance and have him run the race of his life, which beats all these horses.
Photo courtesy of Coglianese photos Joe Labozzetta.
Racing historian, author, and award-winning retired journalist for the Daily Racing Form and The Blood-Horse, Steve Haskin was inducted into the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame’s Media Roll of Honor in 2016. Known for his racing knowledge and insightful prose, he has been an exclusive contributor to Secretariat.com since 2020.
Both Fierceness and Thorpedo Anna earned 111 Beyers for their efforts yesterday. Pretty darn good!
Fierceness will train up to the BCC.
Dornach might free fecal water syndrome.
Has several causes including change in diet, stress, gastric ulcers, IBS.
One of my Arabian mares had FFWS two winters ago. Purchased hay from a different source that year and it a lot a stemy weed with a seed head. Not toxic but in this particular mare it was too much roughage and caused the condition. As soon as I switched to a different hay it cleared right up.
That fact that Dornach was lackluster before and during the race might also indicate a more serious digestive track condition.
Hope all is well with him, have not seen anything on his status.
The Travers was a really good race, I have watched the replay several times.
Was also thrilled Domestic Product won his race.
All in all a good day for those of us who love this sport.
Steve you nailed it about Fierceness. Congratulations!
Glad Anna was not too up on her toes. She did prance all the way back to the barn.
Had I been able to bet I would have won the trifecta.
One more thing, Anna looks taller than Fiercenes, is that the case? They both have the most gorgeous eyes.
David, HAP had another winner today in Little Mo – pocket rocket dominated the 1st at Ellis. She’s his first turf winner, also – and best of all, she’s owned by CRK, HAP’s owners
Yeah – fun race, love those Tapits! I’ll be glad, much as I love Saratoga, when the JCGC is back at Belmont. I used to live near there, and it’s my favorite track – I love it so
Ooh, that should be a good race. Flatter was a fantastic sire, and he was a fave of mine as a racehorse, so I love this boy!
You know I’ve had issues with how Whit prepped him for this race. HM is much better than he showed. I’d ditch the blinkers, and going forward, make sure he works him a little harder, as he’d done previously before the Belmont. His race was too bad to be true, so I don’t know that anything re: distance can be determined
He’s really well bred for turf as his dam is a half to Rule of Law, a St Leger winner. Now might be a good time to try him on grass
The son of Honor A.P. I am closely following is RANK (out of Fabulous Baby by TOUCH GOLD) as the one who will excel at two turn races.
Rank has been improving against Baffert 2-year-old brigade at Del Mar and the son of Honor A.P. will be an outstanding 3-year-old for sure under the wise management of Doug O’Neill.
I also follow Godolphin’s prospects and aside from the promising Sovereignty there was the spectacular debut of Cody’s Wish half brother East Avenue at Ellis Park.yesterday. The son of Medaglia d’Oro won by 8 lengths in an outstanding time of 1:10.56 for 6 furlongs.
It is never too early to start keeping an eye on the potential stars of the future…
Nelson, my friend said she heard on TVG that Doug says he’s their Derby horse (Calumet owned)
He’s the image of his sire, and I think still a bit green. In his debut, he was held by the assistant starter and lost several lengths, or he’d have been closer – and that was against Getaway Car. He’d been having gate issues in his works, but broke well in his second start – so an improvement. Not only due he face a fast, talented colt in Game Winner, Del Mar is biased…so the fact that he made up some ground is notable, even while GW spurted away
Race dynamics will be different going two turns. I’m not sure we’ll see him again until Santa Anita, unless Doug wants to run him at Los Al
But, yeah, I’m very high on him
Nelson and Betsy, the O’Neill barn has a really good social media presence, and gives a lot of barn updates with nice candid (and win!) pictures posted frequently. I like following them because it at least gives a welcoming impression of racing and gives us a look inside, while we also get some ideas about conformation and hoof health of some of the runners!
Not to mention, I enjoyed everything about the I am Lava Man page!
Doug is the best! He organizes groups of backstretch workers to stand up for the sport, he has parties at the track, for owners, on Derby Day his winners circle group was epic, they won the race following the Derby with a horse named Raging Torrent, who is a pretty good three year old sprinter that beat The Chosen Vron Saturday…..they post countless pictures of their stable pony “Goblin”, and their recent winners, as well as “Coach” Lava Man. . .Doug owns a pizza place with his son, their motto is “Save a taco, eat a pizza”!..
Oh, and u love following babies – they are the future of the sport. If you can’t get excited about them, then..
I think that colt’s dam is a half to Cody’s Wish, but either way, a terrific family …and he looked great
Great comments Betsy..I see you are on top of things …good to learn Doug^s expectations for Rank.
Those Derby trainers seem to always have great prospects in their barns.
Thank you, Nelson! I believe in Honor A.P., and his long term success would be good for the Indy line as it’s aging
They do, especially Baffert – one right after another after another …
Betsy, Honor A. P. Is doing much better early than expected which is great. Now, we need some black type wins to increase his crop size and attract his yearlings to the influential sales.
Honor A. P. doesn’t have the luxury of standing at Coolmore or Spendthrift who provide outlandish numbers of mares, 200+ per crop, to start of the freshman sires. Yes, it’s a game of numbers and quantity these days.
I don’t like the Jockey Club Gold Cup at Saratoga either, it’s Belmont’s great race, nor the Woodward Stakes at Aqueduct either. Hurry up and get Belmont finished.
Yes, Flatter was a wonderful sire so we need Ferocious to be exactly that to replace him. You can’t get carried away on one race but it was a wow performance!!
I think LE generally is good about limiting their books to non-crazy amounts, but being bred to 39 mares last year and likely the same this means he has to work harder than most studs to overcome perception. I think he’s done enough to attract more mares, but a stakes winner would really boost him both in terms of attracting mares and yearling prices
He’s got a horse I love – Spurgeon – entered in a mile MSW at the Spa on the 29th, Rank, and some other promising prospects – including a colt trained by Todd. I’m still waiting on Dazzle AP, trained by Clement; he’s gorgeous, and his work at the OBS was considered spectacular
Yes, please! It’s not the same without the Belmont Fall meet
Truth! Here’s hoping for clear skies and fast track all the way until the end!
Yes, Betsy, Spurgeon and Rank have shown promise so, fingers crossed, they only get better but I try not to get too excited about a 2 year old this early.
This Saturday, Carson’s Run in the $3.1 million Nashville Derby International at Kentucky Downs is highly anticipated.
That’s a smart thing, David – I’m not that controlled, lol
$3.1 million? Wow
And West Coast….
I can’t understand all the Sierra Leone online trashing, he was right there, beaten two lengths….the opening half was :48 flat!—the third quarter was in :23 and change—and he made up ground…..this is a good horse….
Disagree on that one. Good horses win. Sierra Leone had a clean trip up the rail on the backstretch, right behind Anna. He shouldn’t need pace help. Maybe his day will come, but not with my money.
Deep closers always need pace help….when I saw :48 I was sure he couldn’t win, and was surprised he ran so well….”good horses win”….well he has lost four in a row, are you saying he’s not good? From my view he has never turned in a bad effort, I didn’t bet him yesterday but included him in my pick four wagers, and thought he would win…..my point is—with a more lively pace, look out—and the Classic WILL have a lively pace!…We’re talking horses here, and upcoming races…I’m just surprised about people panning the horse online like they are….
I probably just have a bias against horses who are pace dependent. I really admired the effort of Idiomatic the day before, taking all the pressure and giving everything. She lost, but she never needs help.
Point noted, and I agree….Some of the all time greats utilized rabbits, to insure enough early pace, something you do not often see anymore….and I agree about Idiomatic, what heart! I have yet to put win money on Sierra, I intend to in November, is my point—and this time he’s going to fetch 5-1!….
Matthew, I’m not sure if you listen to the internet chatter shows but every man, women, and their dog ‘racing expert’, the cats are too clever, have been opining that Sierra Leone was by far the best 3 year old and ‘special’ while given a pass every time he lost. Now it’s time for the experts to eat crow.
Sierra Leone was supposedly to have had the perfect setups to win in his last three races and he failed and now a filly has beaten him as well. He’s a good colt but not special. I don’t knock horses by the way – racing is all about losing and occasionally winning. Flightlines arrive once a century but even some people knocked him.
David’s I get all kind of flack because I like the horse….I have never bet on him but I intend to in November, he isn’t special but he’s pretty good, he has burned plenty of moolah but none of mine, I am always looking ahead—onward, to the Classic!….
A very thrilling race, and a nail biting finish. This is the Fierceness his backers have been waiting for… yours truly included. He ran 3-4 wide the entire race, while the filly saved ground until turning for home.
Wondering if anyone noticed Dornoch in the post parade….looked like he had diarrhea. Perhaps, that’s why the dull finish.
Yeah, Zanytactics, I did notice that and did not feel good as Dornoch was my bet. The paddock commentator said that Dornoch was calm and collected, but to me he looked dull and lifeless. I didn’t change my bet, but if I did, I likely would have taken Sierra Leone.
Great race. Kudos to both Fierceness and Thorpedo Anna.
Ok, saw the same thing. Head hanging down and saw the loose stool release. He just wasn’t right.
edit: dull and listless.
You are rigth about Dornoch Zanytactics.
Dornoch clearly was showing a watery excretion at the post parade.
I am surprised no one had commented about that…
Danny Gargan should report any anomaly affecting Dornoch yesterday.
Nelson, you mean he had the runs? I’m surprised he finished 4th!
Hi Ms Blacktype…
If you recorded the broadcast yesterday you can clearly see Dornoch’s diarrhea when he the camara was on him in the post parade… it was a fluid rather than a solid dung. As Zanytactics wrote, it was not a normal fecal ball …
I could not find the post parade video in YouTube but you may want to ask a friend who recorded it to show it to you.
We should not be surprised if someone upload that very clip into Youtube…
again, someone should ask Gargan what happened to Dornoch’s digestive health yesterday…!
I recorded the whole card but deleted it last night. I’ll take everyone’s word for it!
I thought that Dornoch had the 3-year-old division all sewn up. But the way he lost to Fierceness, I think that the door is open again. Maybe the 2 horses will meet again at Parx or Del Mar. Dornoch has a Triple Crown win in his corner, but I think he needs one more win. It’s been a weird year for the 3-year-olds. It could end up that the Champ turns out to be a horse that didn’t win any of the Triple Crown races. This bunch remains a complete mystery to me. And we’re getting ready to turn our calendars to September.
Matthew was right about Sierra Leone going favored. I think that most of Sierra Leone’s followers will jump ship now. I hate to keep making excuses for him, but it looked to me like he wasn’t taking to the track. Like he was trying hard without going anywhere. I keep saying it, and still believe it: I don’t think that Saratoga is the right track for him. I still believe that Del Mar could be right for him. People have said that Del Mar has been playing to speed, but from my days in California, I remember Del Mar as playing differently with cooler temperatures, and without sounding too much like a nut, with the tide patterns just several hundred yards to the west.
The Breeders Cup is only 10 weeks away. I don’t know what Chad Brown and the high profile connections will decide to do. If they even go to the BC. If they do, does Brown train the horse up to the race? Do they run in the Pennsylvania Derby in 4 weeks? That would give the horse 6 weeks until the BC. Personally, I think they should freshen the horse up and train him up to the race. Fierceness ran real well after being wide most of the way, but was all out to beat the Filly. Who also ran all out. Sierra Leone didn’t lose by too much for a horse that wasn’t handling the track.
The Classic will surely have a faster opening half! Maybe this time Sierra will go off a better price, cuz he is all class, and a true ten furlong horse—fractions are all-important, on dirt, especially for a closer, but with Arthur’s Ride…and Dr Venkman (should he win the Pacific Classic, and he very well might)….there will be pace, Sierra continues to run good races, and I didn’t see any lugging….I welcome the departure, of his bandwagon mates, more moolah for me, when he gets more pace to run at—-those were real good horses that finished two in front of him, after said :48 sec half…and :23 sec third quarter..
Sierra Leon is a very good horse and I wouldn’t be surprised if he won the Classic, if entered. (Remember Cat Thief!)
Given the Beyer figures (Fierceness 111, Thorpedo Anna 111, Sierra Leon 109) I expect all three ran negative ThoroGraph figs.
This was a great day for all lovers of Fierceness. My congratulations and my thanks to him and all his people.
In case anyone was thinking on it… a Fierceness x Thorpedo Anna mating gives no inbreeding through first 5 generations. And would it get Classic distances? It should!
WOW what a race !!! A tip of the hat to Fierceness as he has learned how to rate !!! In the walking ring and post parade he had a different look about him then previously it was like a calm confidence ( Did Todd give him a Valium !?!? … Just kidding ). Has he finally matured ??? I guess we will have to wait 2 months. But the filly ran HUGE !!! She is the real deal and her jockey gave her a beautiful ride. Fifty more feet and she would have won. No excuse for Sierra Leone they just did not come back ( some did Dornoch and Batten Down and some did not Fierceness and Thorpedo Anna ) to him but the track was favoring speed. Dornoch was not right today hopefully nothing wrong and rebound back ok. Batten Down ran his race just not good enough. Unmatched Wisdom what happen here ( did Ortiz stiff him ???) something weird there. Corporate Power big disappointment. Position well throughout the race (looked great in the post parade. ) Shug needs to find an easy spot for him and build his confidence ( Unless he finds something that caused him to run so poorly ). A lot of questions need to be answered between now and the Breeders Cups but that’s for another day !!! Congrats to Pletcher and Repole !!!
Fierceness will get stronger with age, even a few months, and hopefully will be up for the task in November. This was huge vindication for Fierceness, his owner and trainer. Those that run near the front did better, and class also mattered. It ended the way I wanted it to, but I didn’t have the exacta, just a win bet on Fierceness.
Not many top horses make a come back, he was written off after the Derby by many, as a 2 yr. old phenom and as not able to get this distance. It’s too bad Fierceness won’t race more often, so we fans could see his potential developed.
I am not the only one hoping Repole runs Fierceness next year… all the runners who finished off the board in the Travers will likely be outstanding 4-year-olds but, as you said, Fierceness will get better in his (eventual) 4-year-old campaign.
BTW it would be great if Nysos and Kinghtsbridge can be in play next year…
Muth, Mainframe, Resilience, Stronghold, General Partner and Just Steel would be excellent players if they are healthy and in shape next year…
I saw a still photo close to the wire.
Fierceness had his eye right on her.
Huh?
:48 flat, for a top Grade 1…..I think Sierra Leone did well, to get 3rd…..Honor Marie was far back….it looked like Unmatched Wisdom had an unraveling, on one of his run downs….
Matt, Honor Marie is much better than he ran. I did not like Whit’s handling of him at all. HM didn’t need blinkers – just much better luck than he had in KY and in the Belmont
I got major HAP/Shared Belief vibes with the way Whit was training HM. HAP should have won the SB at much less than his best, but John worked him so slowly – not even giving him one stiff work off the layoff. I knew HAP would struggle
Same with HM. He had at least one hard work before the Derby, but none here — and the last work was slow. The horse looked fine, but IMO, Whit tried too many things and went away from what was working
Give him an easier dirt race or try him on turf, which he’s very well bred for
HAP?
Honor A.P.
Pretty soft early fractions for the amount of expected speed. It would have taken a superhorse to close on Fierceness and Anna, the way they were running it out. My take-aways on Sierra Leone were that he stayed closer to the pace, ran straighter, and just is not a super horse at 3. He reminds me of Mane Minister… all for only $2.3 million. He’s earning it back, though, $150K at a time! He’s always in it, just not quite putting it together to full potential.
The good things for them: they COULD run back in the PA Derby in 4 weeks, and try to scoop up a nice G1 and a good check. This horse, for all his various foibles, never looks like races take much out of him, so the timeframe seems doable to me. Then they could decide about pitting him against City of Troy, et al. in November. Something to remember about the pedigree is that Gun Runner wasn’t really doing his best running until his 4 year old year, and then technically at 5 in the Pegasus. For us, maybe this will mean that we get to see Sierra Leone run at 4-5. I hope so!
The less good: I think Sierra Leone still has a lot to prove as a racehorse, especially if they see him as a sire of the future: as folks have pointed out, deep closing specialists haven’t really made their names as stallions in the last 40 years.
He still doesn’t have the right jockey. Irad Ortiz would get more out of him. Or Joel Rosario.
I think Sierra Leone could have been unstoppable in a Belmont Stakes run at 12F. That’s bad luck, for sure.
Disco, I think you are right about rider, and I think Irad’s utterly fearless, aggressive and athletic style might be a good fit.
I would support a different barn altogether for him. I know that’s a terribly rude comment, and I’m prepared for the backlash. I don’t know what Sierra Leone needs to achieve his full potential, but I’m not convinced Chad Brown does either. He is a tricky horse.
He seems unique among Gun Runner’s other top get. He has a much bigger body, but retains that neck reaching, heavy forehand stride – and of course his kooky front end. (I thought was less noticeable yesterday, so maybe I’m wrong and they’re getting to the bottom of it.) That combination makes me wonder if the clock is ticking on his live racing years, and if he is already having a tougher time getting that big body in motion. He has never looked handy. (Think Curlin at the end of his 4 year old season.)
This may be our ultimate throwback horse, who really wants longer distances to get rolling. It’s just that, for him, there are pitiful few options on dirt worth entering. :-/
I think Sierra Leone hangs in every race. He’s still good but not quite as good as given credit for. And there’s no guarantee a good or even a great closer will win against good speed horses. All year I said closers wouldn’t win this year, because there were quality speed horses in the east, for once. Fierceness and to a lesser extent, Dornoch, are two but there are others. Batten Down didn’t do as well as I thought he would.
Disco, you’ve been correct!
I think Batten Down’s days will come. He looked washy and was absolutely soaked with sweat loading into the gate on Saturday. He’s still awfully green, and they have him with Bill, so I really hope that means he gets a good 4 year old campaign. I think there is a lot of talent there, and the Mott barn is a good place for a horse with nervous tendencies and possible mental quirks. I’ll be interested to see where he goes next.
Katy, if City of Troy takes to the dirt as expected it’s by how far in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. The tracks in Europe are actually against him, higgledly-piggledy, the US flat, straight, surface will allow him to extend fully.
Davids, I want to see City of Troy in the Classic! If Fierceness makes it, Arthur’s Ride, Senor Buscador, and Forever Young, my head may explode trying to figure that race.
Katy, Coolmore/Aidan O’Brien stated last week they are skipping the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe for the Breeders’ Cup Classic. The Arc is THE race the big 4 want to win the most every year. So, for Coolmore to bypass the Arc for the Breeders’ Cup Classic they mean business this time not an afterthought.
If City of Troy is not deterred by the kick-back he will take a ton of beating. He’s already the hot favorite by the Europeans.
Who does not love a throw-back horse like Senor Buscador. The son of Mineshaft is returning in the 7 furlongs of the Pat O’Brien Stakes in about two hours. The race appears to be resolved by The Chosen Vron or Raging Torrent but Buscador will be startling them in the last furlong…
Senor Buscador might not be Forego but he will be giving his best no matter the distance or the stature of his rivals.
At his 6-year-old he still has a lot to give even at the international stage.
And he has won at one turn….
Today, Thorpedo Anna got the second loudest cheers from me this year. Buscador’s out of the clouds win in Saudi nearly led to a chandelier catastrophe, I was so amped. I LOVE that horse – his longevity, modest connections and the story of the breeding, and I have always loved a really GOOD closer! Could be the tune up heard round the world (of secretariat.com)!
We have seen some good sprint races today!
Raging Torent ran a good one for the O’Neill barn! They’ve been high on him, and he didn’t disappoint. Buscador really got rolling, but it looked like he was eased and was not asked to chase to make 3rd. Maybe they felt he did what he needed to in that one? I do hope he’s OK.
Oh NO! Call me Miss Pelling. I am sorry, Torrent has two Rs. That wasn’t even tough, like Sovereignty!
This year’s Travers is one for the history books. What a great race!
In the interview after the race, Johnny V said he realized why Fierceness would give up in his races. Fierceness wanted to run his own race and he didn’t like Johnny V deciding for him. So John Velasquez allowed him to run the way he wants to run and he won the race.
He reminds me of a great horse (and a relative of Fierceness) who ran his races the way he wanted to run in them: Secretariat. Thank goodness Ron Turcotte had the insight and intelligence to allow Big Red to run his race.
A good young horse with something to teach a great, veteran rider. Cool!
Thanks Katy. That’s part of the reason Johnny V is great he learns from and listens to the horses.
Several years ago there was a talented filly who ran second unless Mike Smith or Johnny V rode her. Judy The Beauty was quite a character, but she only liked if they rode her; she had good taste in Hall of Fame jockeys.
I love that! I’ve always liked Fierceness, though like many, I’d given up on him. Thank goodness Johnny V figured him out. I cheered myself hoarse on Thorepedo Anna…what a great race!
Fierceness proved he can win two in a row, but my goodness Thopedo Anna actually HAD him in the next jump after the wire. That doesn’t count of course, but man, am I proud of her!
And Steve, you are as Nelson said, a master Horse Psychologist. You knew Fierceness had it in him, and he proved you right.
I couldn’t agree more, she would have had him. TA is so special she lost nothing in defeat.
Thrilled!!!!
They can put Thorpedo back against the fillies….win out in The Distaff…..and bag Horse of the Year, if Fierceness doesn’t win The Classic….she was right there, against the top three year old….right there and sailing past—what a special filly!….
Viva Fierceness, Viva Thorpedo Anna! Super performance by 1-2 finishers. I can’t wait to see the figures. I thought they were flying at the end after those reasonable early frx!
One question Matthew , What if City of Troy comes and runs in the BCC. and wins ? Any doubt who will be Horse of Year ??? I don’t think so. Or if Dornoch wins. I love the filly but a lot of things would have to fall into place for her to. If she had won today things would different.
There’s an unwritten rule you need at least two races in US to win Horse of the Year….(:-D)…
I think her effort was a big “win”….
The mystery is over …!
Congrats Steve… Temendo pronostico el de usted ! …you are officially the best horse shrink in America…
Beautifully said, Nelson!
You were right Steve Haskin. Great job! 7-2 is a great price.
Oh …..Thorpedo …so close!
She ran one heck of a race. I am so proud of her!
She was awesome! I was calling out “go Thorpedo”, lol.
Kudos to her connections for taking the shot …
Me too. On the road, and offline most of the day and just checking in now (NYRA and then here). Was a bit hesitant to check in but the finish I hoped for. (I know absolutely nothing about racing though). Now just hoping everyone came out of the race in good shape. 🙂
I’ll like Dornoch for the win,
Dornoch had an off day today. Will hope for better in his next race.
Fierceness is still 5-1 with 20 minutes to post. Good for people that like him. But is that a bad sign? IDK.
And Sierra Leone a pretty big favorite. Flavien Prat has surely been riding hot at the Spa. Batten Down with NO love!
David – good weekend for HAP as he had a 2nd and 3rd in stakes
Glee ran a very solid second behind easy winner, Long Neck Paula, but she finished willingly and showed that she’ll want to stretch out. She’s a beautiful filly – and with Bluegrass Cat on her dam side, she should only improve
Hollywood Beauty ran a very encouraging third in the Sorority. She was closer to the pace than in her only other dirt start, made a very good middle move, may have gotten a bit tired, but came again to almost get 2nd. She’s a competitive, talented filly. The winner set a very slow pace
Yes, Betsy, Honor A. P.’s progeny are doing extremely well at distances that are not to their best advantage.
The race that I’m looking forward to is the Jockey Club Gold Cup with the two big Tapit greys Arthur’s Ride and Tapit Trice. I like the way Mott put Scylla in the sprint to sharpen her up for the Distaff she performed admirably.
Cagliostro’s stumble at the start cost him the Forego which was really disappointing, probably his only chance of getting a Group 1. I thought not giving Honor Marie a prep race was a major error, bad luck. There will be other races, I think he’d be better being a late sprinter/miler.
Looks as though Ferocious is going for the Hopeful Stakes.
Seems like Fierceness is currently offering 7 to 1 according to the last odds update for the Travers … very rewarding for the bettors putting their faith.
Good luck and safe trips to every one.
As for the promising two-year-olds that ran today I will be closely following Godolphin’s Sovereignity (Into Mischief-Crowned by Bernardini). Her debut in the 7th race at Saratoga was very encouraging … he literally did not know what he was doing the first half of the 6 furlongs (running last the first quarter) but closed strongly to finish 4th only three lengths behind three good sprinters.
Sovereignity ran the last furlong in 12 seconds flat signaling that he will be at his best at two turn races.
It is never early to keep an eye on Godolphin’s industrious journey toward the Kentucky Derby….
Nelson, Bernardini mares are gold! Ll keep an eye on this one!
Thanks for the repy Betsy.
This colt is bound to make some headlines given Bill Mott’s knack for steadily developing superior runners…
Yep! Gonna watch the race later !
Congratulations, Nelson. You’re the first to misspell Sovereignty’s name (see my post below). The owners omitted that last “i”.
LOL … yes Ms Blacktype this is one of the drawbacks of copy and paste not being allowed here….
At least you should forgive my spanish propensity while writing…
Love it!
Sovereignty
Sovereignty
Sovereignty
Sovereignty
Sovereignty
Sovereignty
Sovereignty
Sovereignty
That would do! LOL
I think I just saw four horses that we may be talking about on the 2025 Derby trail in the 7th race today at Saratoga. Gutty win by the favorite, Tip Top Thomas, but I fell hard for Rookie Card as he ambled around in the paddock: so comfortable in his own skin. And then ran “Thomas” to a head, with Keewaydin (my pick) just a nose behind. All three ran great races, as did Sovereignty, whose name we will all be misspelling in the months to come.
Happy for Skippylongstocking, winning yet another graded stakes! Ain’t no hairs on being a G2 specialist and WV legend when you can last long enough to bankroll just under $3 million. Congratulations to the connections. Sure like that horse!
I like him too, Katy! I was happy to read that he won again.
I knew that the Travers was an old race, but I didn’t realize that the first one was run in 1864. The Civil War was still going on at the time. The Civil War ended in 1865. I still learn something new every day. Even at my age.
Can you imagine? In the South, desperation for horses to expend in the war. In the North, things were going well enough to keep breeding and using horses for sport.
Number 1 sire at that time was Lexington, and his offspring (both colts and fillies) dominated the Travers for about the first 15-20 years it was run. He went all the way back to the Byerley Turk via Sir Archy, then Herod. It was the dominant sireline in America for many years, eventually preserved by Lexington’s daughters as broodmares – the tail females who gave us Holy Bull!
In the US today, there is more Byerley Turk blood preserved in AQHA pedigrees than in American JC TBs. The Darley Arabian, through Phalaris, has near complete sireline dominance now. Our friend Colonel John represents one of the last of the Godolphin Arabian sireline horses alive in the USA.
When we ask how the fillies did what they did back then, I think the answer is literally, “it was a different breed.”
Steve
Thanks for pointing out those Thorograph numbers on Corporate Power. Shug sounds like he wants to be sitting off the pace with him. I hope with this smaller field the rider can do that. I do not want this horse pushing the pace. Same could be said of Thorpedo Anna, I would like to see her sitting behind the leaders about 4 to 6 lengths approaching the first turn. The only thing that would change my mind on this is if the rail turns out to be extremely fast. Then let her go and hope for the best. She is so fast.
This should be an exciting race. Looking forward to see how it develops… Good Luck to all !!!
Happy Travers Day, everyone! Here’s wishing for safe trips for all. Enjoy the race! Should be a good one!
Thanks, arlingtonfan! And seconded!
I don’t know about y’all, but for me, the lead-up to the Travers has taken more emotional capital than any race since last year’s Breeders Cup card. I’m ready! I can’t imagine how the connections must feel now.
Very excited about the sprints, sorry the turf field is short (Silver Knott, with a little long-shot action for Pioneering Spirit for me).
Whatever happens today… Sweet Azteca goes tomorrow!
I hope they all run safely and fairly!
I love The Filly! I bet her big, in The Oaks….She gets 5 lbs—She needs it, she is a feminine looking filly—Zenyatta was also feminine bur she was stronger than the males, Beholder also, was a tank—I hope for a safe trip and I hope she comes back the same filly she was before the Travers, it’s must-see-tv!…
I won’t be betting on her…..but should she win I’ll be over the top happy…
I feel the same way, and I believe that a good number of the Askin’ Haskin faithful agree! The money may not be where our hearts are this time.
The kid has on her pink dress, but she also went for red socks – she hasn’t forgotten Dornoch this time around. It’s quite a look.
As I’ve said many times, any time Fierceness runs, I’m picking him. With his good-bad-good-bad pattern, that means I’m wrong 50% of the time but it also means I’m right 50% of the time. And if I were betting, which I rarely do, his $35.00 win in the Breeders Cup Juvenile would have much more than made up for his three failures. So I’m quite comfortable hoping for the good Fierceness tomorrow. He may be the most interesting horse I’ve ever seen because of his unpredictability. He always keeps you guessing, and you never know why. I’ve never seen a horse like him who is so good and so bad all at the same time, and I’m enjoying the mystery of not knowing what to expect. I don’t think that mystery will be solved in the Travers. I hope his performance will be spectacular, but whatever he does, he’s done it before, and there are still questions. I expect the questions to continue, but I hope the good-bad-good-bad pattern ends with two consecutive wins. That, for me, would make a very enjoyable Travers.
Yes, Jiffy — especially considering he’s 7 to 1 at the moment. Juicy odds.
The greatness of Idiomatic was on display at Saratoga today… she rebuffed a big challenge, from Randomized, pulled clear—-but got caught late by Raging Sea, who was given a terrific ride by Prat—he kept her way out there…Idiomatic is a battler, she likely did not see her….the 2023 Distaff was an old time Battle Royale, and it looks like the 2024 Distaff will be just as good…
Probably her best race ever. Questionable ride, but she shows up no matter the race set up.
Kind of a fitting way for the Personal Ensign to be won!
Good comment!..
Spot on Katy !!! Love Idiomatic !!! When it comes to the time she goes to become a momma I hope she is bred to … Justify !!!
They have to, right? What if something happens to him.
I wish more US champion mares had access to Frankel… but they could do it. They own them both. Doubling down on Northern Dancer doesn’t concern me as much as some lines, re: soundness.
Caitlinhergrtness wins King’s Plate at Woodbine.
Two years ago the race was won by the filly Moira.
Hmm who says the girls cannot win against the boys?
I’m mentally drained. I finished all my handicapping, watched all the replays, and put some prospective tickets together pending scratches. I’m all over the place.
Irad Ortiz has mounts in all 14 races if I counted correctly. He could have one of his six- win days. Someone could just play all of his horses and probably do very well.
If you don’t like that angle, try playing all Chad Brown horses. He looks loaded for a big day. Ditto Todd Pletcher.
I’m all over the place, just hoping to cash a few nice tickets.
Youre not alone being all over the place. Good luck..
I love Irad on Houlton, in the FORTEENTH! Rides all fourteen, after a long night in West Virginia, complete with big delays, the Charles Town Classic going off well after 11pm, long trip back home, plane flight or not it’s a long night—and first post is minutes away—oh, to be young again!….
I am excited to see him on Speak Easy, getting into some stiff competition in the Allen Jerkens. That has the look of a SUPER field! There isn’t much to not like in Bookem Danno, but I’m interested in Prince of Monaco, too. Reynolds Channel (West Coast) is my long-shot in that field.
Thorograph Show liked Speak Easy .
I am all for Thorpedo Anna’s connections taking on this challenge. Everyone wants them all to come back safely, but any racing or training implies risk. Continuing to beat up on fairly slow, overmatched fillies will add nothing to her legacy. Last year’s 3yo filly champion, whose name escapes me, was just retired because she essentially soured on racing, as fillies often do. Anna is very good now, the competition is moderate, and she deserves the chance.
To Steve Haskin and everyone else regarding Fierceness in the Travers: I was watching Horse Racing on Fox Sports from Saratoga today. And Todd Pletcher was interviewed about Fierceness live on tv today. He said he was doing great. He had gained weight since his last race and is eating all of his food up. I think he has grown up and really matured. This is a more mature, more developed Fierceness.
Many thanks to Steve Haskin for his insight on this matter. Todd Pletcher confirmed what you have said about Fierceness. I hope we will see Fierceness imitate what his great great grandsire, Holy Bull, did in his Travers.
Thanks again.
RE: Travers Stakes
Regarding Thorpedo Anna running against the boys in the Travers, there’s a chance she may overextend herself going 10 furlongs against some of the top colts in the country and suffer an injury.
After finishing 2nd to Monomoy Girl in the 2018 Kentucky Oaks, Wonder Gadot took on the boys in the Travers and finished dead last (10th). In the BC Distaff, she finished a distant 9th. Bottom line, Wonder Gadot was never the same promising mare after the Travers.
In my view, Eight Belles and Ruffian, overextended themselves running against the boys in dirt route races and paid the ultimate price.
I hope I’m wrong, but I’m getting “bad” vibes about Thorpedo Anna running against the boys in the Travers Stakes.
Bill Dawson, Your concern about Thorpedo Anna in the Travers is quite realistic. It reminded me of what Australian trainer, Peter Moody said about the late Black Caviar.
Moody said that Black Caviar was never 100% in any of her races. She always had soft tissue injuries that she had to overcome as she was such a big mare. He joked that they had to keep that special body suit on her in coming to England to cover up her dull looking coat. He was uncertain about racing her at Royal Ascot. And then she developed injuries in two muscle groups in the quads and in the muscles associated with the sacroilleac joint while racing in the Diamond Jubilee at Royal Ascot. He really was afraid that she was going to collapse on the late Queen Elizabeth II, when the queen went to pet her. Nelly (BC) had a very high pain tolerance an and was determined to win all of her races.
I wonder if Torpedo Anna has the same issues.
Thanks for the reply, Terri.
Your analogy of Black Caviar and Torpedo Anna could be telling.
Let’s hope TP will come out of the Travers in good order.
You are quite welcome Bill.
If you’re looking to make a case on Thoro-Graph for Corporate Power at a good price, the career best number for Sierra Leone, Dornoch, Thorpedo Anna, and Unmatched Wisdom are betwen a 1 and 1 1/2. Corporate Power ran a 6 3/4 then a 6 1/2 then a 6 1/4 before jumping to a 2 in the Curlin (faster than the winner). Man’y might look at that jump as a potential “bounce,” but having run three straight 6’s this was the time to make that big move and the Curlin could very well be his coming out race and another move forward definitely is possible. And even a small move forward puts him right there with those horses. He does have issues with lugging in a bit and his lead changes and we’ll have to see how much he has matured. But the future is bright for him and he will be a pretty big price if you want to throw him in your exotics.
He is the one horse that I think could crash the “big-4 party”. I’m glad to see your endorsement. He comes into the race with 3 workouts since his last race and the last one being a bullet :47.2 last Friday.
I’m happy to see so much excitement for Travers Day. The biggest days seem bigger than ever.
Ken McPeek is to be commended for giving Thorpedo Anna the chance to write a prominent page in horse racing history. If the daugther of Fast Anna wins the Travers she will be elevated above Hall of Famers Bed O’ Roses, Cicada, Chris Evert and Davona Dale who could not defeat the colts in the Midsummer Derby.
Thorpedo Anna does not appear to be faster than the 3 top colts of this class (Dornoch, Sierra Leone and Fierceness) but a rail trip, 5 pounds of weight advantage and the likelihood of her firing on all cylinders this time makes her a worthy challenger against the boys.
This weekend could be for the fillies with Catlinhergrtness (Omaha Beach – Belatrix by Giant’s Causeway) looking ready to defeat the best Canadian colts in the KIng’s Plate tomorrow at Woodbine. She will be overrunning her morning line of 12 to 1.
Thorpedo Anna is second co-favorite at 3 to 1 in the Travers and she only needs to improve a couple of lengths of her Acorn romp to give Dornoch and Fierceness a very good fight.
The Travers will be a splendid spectacle. Trainer McPeek taking on the role of racing historian said: “If she were to beat the colts in the Travers… I mean, she’s immortal… You’re going to read about her for another 100 years”.
Let’s hope we are fortunate enough to witness history in the making this glorious Saturday at Saratoga.
She certainly is giving off vibes that she is ready to take on the boys.
Safe racing and good luck to all.
I hope those vibes arent too strong. She has been extremely aggressive in her gallops, prety much runing off with her exercise rider. And she was too aggressive to gate school the way Kenny wanted. Just dont want to see her get rank after being sent from the rail
Steve, there is something to be said about Anna’s aggressiveness in her works.
But does that not apply to both fillies and colts?
Cannot the screws be tightened too much?
Regarding the one hole, my concern is more about being next to Sierra Leone and his seemingly on going tendency to lug in.
I have faith in Anna. She might not win but if it is a fair, clean race, I truly believe she can finish in the top 3.
Boy I hope you’re right, Lynda—Fillies are rarely ready to take on the boys, at this distance….
It is amazing to see that the first five Travers (from 1864 to 1868) were dominated by the fillies (3 to 2) at a distance of 14 furlongs. The 1865 edition shows three fillies in the trifecta and the females were a constant presence and doing well over the first fifteen years of Travers history.
Perhaps with the Alabama Stakes (since 1876) held a week before the Travers was more suitable for the best fillies of the time. However, Cicada, Chris Evert and Davona Dale ran in the Travers after competing in the Alabama one week before. BTW they could not win either Stakes…. which did not hamper their Hall of Fame induction.
I keep asking my self why the horses of the past seemed way stronger and resilient than the modern Thoroughbreds… i.e. Hall of Famer Bed O’ Roses ran 21 times as a 2-year-old. From February to November
After reading Steve’s update on Thorpedo Anna I feel that her becoming only the eight filly to win the Travers is even more challenging. Anyway, she does not need to win to remain as the best filly this season.
Steve, you make a good case for a horse I will not bet. I think Dornoch will win IF he is taken slightly off the early pace, IF he stays ahead of Anna on the rail, and IF SL gives his usual disappointing finish (he gets show). I saw a clocker report which implied that Anna is fully prepared to run well physically but perhaps not mentally. IF she holds her spot on the rail and rates I think she can place. If she is headstron, fuggedaboutit.
Dam sire Arch:
Nyquist – Champion 2YO; KD winner
I’ll Have Another – KD/ Preakness winner
Uncle Mo – Champion 2YO
There are 10 other Graded Stakes winners that were produced Arch mares.
Why spotlight horses produced from Arch mares?
There is an entrant in the Allen Jerkens that was produce from an Arch mare. The ML for the entrant is 20/1. His resume is very modest featuring 3 starts with a win in a MSW and an Allowance.
It takes an audacity of hope to be willing to wager an entrant with the above cited resume, in a field as completive as the one assembled for the 2024 renewal of the Allen Jerkens.
Vettriano made his debut in the barn of Chad Brown and was the $1.10 favorite when he finished a disappointing 4th by 6L. Subsequent to his debut he disappeared for 9 months. He returned to the races in the barn of Brad Cox.
His return race was over 6 1/2F at Aqueduct that he won by 5 1/4L in 1:15.95. He followed up with a win at the same venue over a mile complete in 1:35.15 geared down a 1/2F from the wire.
What was noteworthy about Vettriano’s mile win were the internal fractions i.e., 22.99; 45.73; 1:09.84 & 1:21.94. When the colt reached, he 7F marker he was on the wrong lead and ended the race likewise.
Folks, a horse on the wrong lead that recorded a time of 1:21 plus for 7F, then geared down 1/2L from the line and finished 8F in a tick over 1:35, cannot be ignored at 20/1. The final time for that 8F could have easily in the high 1:32 with a proper lead change and urging to the line. Add to the fact that he was produced from an unraced Arch mare, he must be considered an upset possibility
Obviously could be engaging in absurdity or could be dreaming. But you know what is said about dreams. They are free.
Steve, not to take away from this awesome article about ‘the Fierceness mystery’, but I just saw a your Travers trivia set of questions on Facebook. It looks great—haven’t waded through all of it yet. Would you consider posting it here so that non-Facebookers on this blog could respond? I think they would love it. Just a suggestion….
Thank you. So glad you enjoyed it. I thought the people on Facebook had a good time with it. But I’m not as confident as you are that people on here would love it except for maybe a handful of them.
I’m going to have to do my every few weeks log-in to FB to check this out! Wish me luck. Social media… SMH.
Try to convince Steve to post it on this blog—–the members here love turf history! Plus it was harder for me to correlate the questions to the answers on fb.
I loved it—scored a great big doughnut! Loved it anyway, and learned plenty!..
I don’t do Facebook, and I’m curious about the quiz. I’d love to see it here.
The high expectation regarding Fierceness remains puzzling.
The colt’s profile suggested he wasn’t going to be the standout that most expected. His stable mate Uncle Mo was far more impressive and had a better resume as a 2YO. The expectations were even greeter for Uncle Mo. Did he deliver? A resounding no! He had a rather tame 3YO career that culminated with a 3rd to last finish in the 2011 BCC.
The colt finished 20L last but one in the Champagne (G1). I can think of no horse form his barn that emerged an eventual champion older horse of a 20L loss.
He was a 16/1 winner of the BCJ off a 20L loss. That kind of form reversal is unprecedented in the BCJ. Storm The Court a 45/1 winner of the BCJ entered off an 8L loss, The 2019 Champion 2YO has not won since in 24 starts.
The most impressive upset winer of the BCJ was Street Sense. He emerged the first BCJ wiener to return and win the KD. Despite his KD win, it was Curlin that emerged as Champion 3YO plus HOTY.
There was nothing unprecedented about Fierceness’ first 3 starts to fuel the superstar status bestowed on him. His romp in the FL Derby over a modest group has been misrepresented. The fist 3 passed the post in the FL Derby returned to finish 15th, 18th & 19th in the KD. How far did the tiring Fierceness finish ahead of Catalytic and Grand Mo the First? The records reflect 14L & 16 L.
In fierceness’s defeats it has never been the case he was beaten by a better opponent on the day. It always the case his lost was due to his good race bad race pattern. His one win as a 3YO against top class company was in a slow time by a relatively short margin.
Fierceness never possessed the profile of a superstar by virtue of his 2nd and 3rd starts. The experts and analysts never reflected on the history of the bran to which the colt’s belongs.
Reflection is an important component of critical thinking.
MYSTERY – Something that is difficult or impossible to understand or explain’
Life At Ten won 7 of her 8 starts ahead of the 2010 Breeders Cup lady’s Classic. After the gates opened, she was unable to break out of a trot.
Daredevil’s ultra impressive win in the 2014 Champagne (G1) earned him an Equibase figure of 113. That figure remains the highest for the BCJ in the 32 years since Equibase has been assigning SP. The colt left the gates as the 2nd choice in the betting by $0.80. He finished last by 29 1/4L. Never won another race.
Verrazzano won his first 4 stat and was considered by some as a freak of nature. he has classified as a man amongst boy by our esteem host. He finished 4th by 15L in the KD. He would resume his winning ways in an AOC, followed by a win the Haskell. He ended his career with 6 consecutive loses between the US and Britian. With his best finish being 3rd.
There is a pattern with horses connected to a certain barn. There highs and lows are inevitable. There is nothing difficult or impossible to understand. The program results are consistent but might vary between horses. There is no Myster
EDIT: 4th paragraph.
Verrazano won his first 4 starts and was considered to be a Freak of Nature by some. He finished 14th by 15L in the KD.
EDIT – The figure remains he highest for the Champagne in the 32 years since Equibase has been assigning figures for the race.
The Fierceness mystery is a case for (horse) psyhologists but I dare to try explaining what might be going on in his mind while running.
Maybe this has happened to you. When I used to play chess against the computer I developed this habit of abruptly stopping the game after making a foolish mistake early which would inevitably make me lose. Then I would restart a new game knowing I will give a fair try this time. Perhaps Fierceness was doing the same when he “felt” his race was lost because he could not dominate the field at certain point in the race. Some would say he knew he was not able to “run his race”.
In the Champagne (only his second start) Fierceness found himself running behind four other horses after lunging at the break. He made a menacing move in the final turn against frontrunner General Partner but threw the towel at the quarter pole. You could say he effectively ran only 6 furlongs and walked the final 2 furlongs… the race did not take much off him. Twenty seven days later Fierceness was more than a second faster than the four most solid Grade 1 2-year-olds of 2023; he staged one of the most impressive Breeder’s Cup Juveniles since Arazi and Street Sense.
As many would agree Fierceness had a legitimate excuse for his subpar performance in the Holy Bull Stakes. In the Derby he was disheartened when he could not pass Track Phantom at the mile mark.
Fierceness is four-for-four when he had the lead at the quarter pole… you may recognize this kind of assertion…yes… I am just borrowing Steve’s astute observation about Mucho Macho Man’s past performances after winning the Awesome Again (his prep for the BC Classic at Santa Anita).
Steve wrote:
“Mucho Macho Man had a unique record going into the Awesome Again. Since his career debut at Calder he was six-for-six when he had the lead at the eight pole and 0-for-14 when he didn’t. Stevens gunned him to the front on the far turn and drew off to a 4 1/4-length victory. Now, Mucho Macho Man was seven-for-sevn when he had the lead at the eight pole. The strategy for the Classic seemed pretty simple.”
And Gary Stevens seemed to have listened (read) as he confidently stalked Moreno, Game on Dude and Fort Larned, to pass the latter at the eigth pole and fend off the late charges of Will Take Charge and Declaration of War. By the way, Steve’s observation is memorialized in Wikipedia (Mucho Macho Man page).
But telling Johny V to enter the homestretch on the lead with Fierceness might be a moot point as Dornoch is not only able to overrun him there but also the Belmont/Haskell winner will cherish a good fight in the last furlong.
While Fierceness got a “no win no play” attitude Sierra Leone is like the biggest gun so difficult to handle that you keep missing your target. I hope Flavian Prat had learned how to aim better this time.
Somehow putting your money on Dornoch, Sierra Leone or Thorpedo Anna makes more sense than banking on a capricious Fierceness… but it may be true that the son of City of Light has indeed found his killer instinct and won’t be losing his drive if he is not ahead coming to the homestretch.
I am just flipping a coin to foretell Fierceness performance in the historic and consequential Travers.
It still may be early to apply that statistic to Fierceness because his career is not extensive enough or normal enough. His races are all over the place and he still is as much of an enigma now as he was last year. Perhaps I look at Fierceness the way I look at myself growing up. My teachers wre frustrated with me because they could see I was smart but I was a goof-off and only applied myself when it was a course I truly enjoyed. The result was I could get a 100 on one test and a zero on another test. Sound familiar? I guess I am just giving Fierceness another chance to apply his talents on all his tests and not frustrate his teachers (and bettors) like I did. If he flunks again on Saturday I guess he’ll he’ll have to be satisfied getting a diploma by the skin of his teeth and then find contentment in his next career.
LOL, your comment about seeing Fierceness in yourself.
I thought the same when I read your post.
Guilty here of being either brilliant or a dud, no in between!
My teachers were dumbfounded by how I could test well on math and was brilliant in the sciences and fail math!
I won several awards in local and regional Science Fairs and presented papers at the Virginia Junior Academy of Science, but stick an Algebra book in front of me and I became a blooming idiot. (I did do well in Geometry however. Go figure!).
The main difference between us is that I wasnt brilliant at anything. I might have been but made no effort to reach that high.
Yes you are brilliant…weaving sights, sound, emotion with words.
That’s very kind of you. Thank you.
I’m right with you on Algebra, Lynda — although I attribute that to a teacher who didn’t know how to teach it to the mathematically challenged. Luckily an intern came in and explained all I had to do was find “x” and I could solve (simple) algebra problems.
To respond to Steve’s lackluster academic performances, I almost flunked home ec. I couldn’t sew. Luckily, I can cook!
I could sew but not knit!
Yes Steve… you are right about the irrelevance of the comparison. While transcribing the quote I realized that Mucho Macho Man’s case was not applicable to Fierceness. The BC Classic was the 23rd start for the son of Macho Uno (by Holy Bull no less) in his 5-year-old campaign. These days we can only dream about a young Grade 1 winner running that far.
Anyway, as I said in other posts, I don’t recall any other “rollercoaster” case in the PPs of top horses. Mysteries and the unconventional are often sources of good stories…
Good questions in the Past The Wire hat competition, Steve. I got three of the five: Chris Evert, Key to the Mint, and Angel Penna.
The funny thing about the Angel Penna, he was described as the US trainer who won the Arc and the Travers Stakes. You just smile.
I;m surprised you got the Key to the Mint answer because the question should have been Who was the only horse to win the Travers coming off back-to-back grade 1 wins against older horses? The key was the older horses. He won the Brooklyn and Whitney.
Steve, it must have been a lucky guess, ha ha, whatever, I’ll take it. It’s like racing, a lot of the time it’s pure luck.
Key To The Mint was a favorite so that’s probably why. The hats were pretty cool, did they offer you one for your imput?
City of Troy might just be the horse to win the Breeders’ Cup Classic for Aidan O’Brien and well done Ryan Moore in the Juddmonte International at York. What stamina to lead from the start and then kick away at the finish.
Aidan O’Brien has said all along that City of Troy is the best horse he has ever had and that’s a mammoth statement in itself. O’Brien said he was only going to go back to the Breeders’ Cup Classic unless he has the right horse. City of Troy is that horse.
If Coolmore are deadly serious in winning the Breeders’ Cup Classic this year then the Arc has to be forgotten about. We shall see how things play out over the next few weeks.
In the meantime, glory in the triumph at York is well deserved. Veni, Vidi, Vici!!
City of Troy looked pretty good today….lead all the was and even after the finish he stayed in front….big stride and stamina!…
Matthew, that statement can be underscored, twice!!
Steve, would you consider yourself the eternal optimist with horses at times or is this rooted in the numbers and potential growth in maturity, or all of the above? I really am pulling for Fierceness because I like to see in horses, and humans, the grit to reach their full potential, the progression from uncertainty to “fierceness” and confidence. It’s a heartwarming scenario that you love to see happen in real time. Conversely, when I see a horse has all the tools it hurts, in a way, to see them fail.
At times, when they get disrespected. And the hope of maturity is always a factor.
The $200,000 Sapling Stakes drew only 14 nominations and not enough entrants to run – that’s shocking. Even the Sorority had to be redrawn to run Saturday – but it looks like the Sapling won’t be run. I can’t figure out why they couldn’t get 5/6 to run for such a rich purse
David, I was hoping Shootersgottashoot would enter, but he hasn’t worked in almost a month, since his debut. Of course the same connections ran a colt last week at a mile, coming out of Shooter’s maiden, without any works either. So maybe in one way I’m glad – I’m not a fan of Mario Serey Jr at all for his he’s handling these horses
That’s disappointing about the Sapling Stakes, Betsy. Pletcher usually has an interesting 2 year old running in it that will take more time to hit the high notes.
You have Hollywood Beauty and Yellow in the Sorority Stakes so fingers crossed there.
David, it turns out the Sorority is being run on Saturday because it was added as an extra race when they drew the card. Hopefully they’ll do the same next week for the Sapling. If they do, I don’t think Todd will be running anyone as I think Showcase and Uncaged will run in the Hopeful
Hollywood Beauty ran ok last out behind a turf freak, but I think they ran her there because there was nothing else. I’m looking forward to her going two turns – most HAPs have been running at 4 1/2 to 5 1/2F
Yellow will run well, I think
I’m excited about Essex Serpent in the King’s Plate
Good luck with Essex Serpent, Betsy. I never get too interested in geldings though. Robert Sangster said to me once “they’re only as good as their next race” which kind of stuck in the subconscious.
Midnight Mascot is the one for me.
I guess if the guy only cared about breeding, I get what he’s saying – but isn’t that the problem with racing these days?
In any case, he’s by Honor Code, so gelding or not, I’m rooting for him, lol
Betsy, Robert Sangster’s life story is quite interesting. Inherited a fortune, encouraged the Maktoums into racing/breeding, lost the fortune through bidding wars with the Maktoums and building an ultra modern stud farm/training centre, rebuilt his fortune with the lads from Coolmore and was chiefly responsible in creating modern breeding/racing/shuttling of stallion prospects and the ballooning of mares covered by sires each year.
Good article Steve and very thought provoking. Fierceness reminds me of my cat who’s philosophy on life is ” I do what I want, how I want and when I want”. I’d love for him to put two wins together, but, we shall see ?
The H Allen Jerkens is loaded with talent, I’m a Book em’ Danno fan but I don’t think he will have an easy time with this field. Safe trip to all.
I think you can say that about all cats. lol
City of Troy smashed Sea The Stars record in the Juddmonte International a short time ago.
I honestly am beginning to think that Justify is a much greater sire of turf horses than dirt horses!
Lynda
Aidan O’Brien earlier this year said he thinks that Justify may become one of the all time great sires. I think he will sire a great dirt horse one day just has to get put under the right trainer who will recognize what he has.
BTW…. Mike R.
Mc Vay has had two sparkling workout … a 7 furlong in 1:25 and a 5 furlong in 59:80…. maybe a little too fast for your liking but to me he is heading in the right direction. Hopefully Sherriff doesn’t put him a race above his head. The Shared Belief would be my guess he is being pointed for. That race might come up a little tough. I would like to see him in a $50,000 – $100,000 optional claiming race first so he can build up his confidence. Will see were he ends up.
Arabian Knight retirement….. what a disappointment !!!! Not sure what Baffert meant when he said he needs more time with him ??? And I say what’s the RUSH !!!
Why not run him as a 5 year old and make him a miler. Something obviously is wrong with him and I did not like his last couple of works. He was not as light on his feet as he was earlier in the year with his works. I wouldn’t breed a mare to him. In fact I am questioning the durabilities of a lot of these… Into Mischief, Nyquist and Uncle Mo bred horses. Sure they show speed but they don’t hold up. JMO When they go to a sale ring they should hang a big sign over them…. BUYER BEWARE !!!
Hey Downthestretch!
So far I have not been impressed by Justify’s dirt colts. That is not to say that lining up with certain broodmare broodmare bloodlines will not produce good dirt colts.
Not sure what happened with Arabian Knight. He was putting in works at 5F right up until the day before the retirement announcement. I am inclined to think that either Zedan did not want to invest any more time/money him or he had some sort of injury during his last work like maybe a soft tissue injury?
I checked his earnings and to date it was around 1.7 million, not quite what Zedan paid for the colt which was around 2.3 million. I may be off base but Zedan comes across as expecting a quick return on his investments and not particularly interested in an older horse campaign. Mr Zedan does seem to buy based on the speeds the two year olds before the auctions.
I am now questioning Uncle Mo progeny. I agree they just do not hold up. Yes Buyer Beware on some of these horses. Have not heard anymore about the 4 million dollars Curln/Beholder
colt. He has not been added to Zedan’s stable on his web page. Maybe I am the foolish one but just did not see that the colt was worth that kind of money. Those pasterns and in one in particular really bothered me. HA, but what do I know. If I had that kind of money I would be looking for another Secretariat as far as confirmation.
Correction, conformation not confirmation.
I’m with you about Zedan. Looking for the return as he has put out a lot of money but not much to show. When I saw that YOUTUBE video of the Curlin/Beholder colt his mid part of the body looked squished between the front part and back part… no balance.. maybe they hope he will mature physically. Baffert is with him at these sails. The colt he recently bought for over $ 3 million seems like a nice one will see if he can run. But Zedan I remember when he bought the Curlin/Beholder was seeing $$$ signs for eventual stud syndicate. As the old saying goes you can’t count your chickens before they hatch.
I got an up-close look at a Beholder colt, he had an odd name and only ran a few times, but he was gigantic! (QB…something)….He wasn’t much of a runner….I heard the Curlin–Beholder colt is coming along slowly….and Beholder’s good filly Tamara was not doing well, for Mandella….I hope she comes back she’s a runner…
I think the name is QB1
Steve, you may be right and the best of luck to Fierceness but for me he seems like a horse that needs everything to go well from start to finish to keep him interested. He probably has a better than average chance of that happening in the Travers Stake with the post position he has drawn.
Should Fierceness win the Travers Stakes that means Sierra Leone has lost four races in a row and only has three wins in eight races which doesn’t indicate he’s that special. Dornoch has a chance of cementing his stature among the 3 year olds but I’m doubting this will happen.
I wouldn’t be surprised if there is a major upset and the fog remains. A Batten Down or Honor Marie win would warm the heart on a rainy Sunday morning in Melbourne town. Fingers crossed. What a fabulous card at Saratoga, best of luck to you all.
Davids, I have to respectively disagree with you about Sierra Leone. First of all Sierra Leone has showed up and run his race in almost all his races that he has run but that can’t be said of Fierceness. 2nd, The closing running style is hardest running style to win a race with. A lot has to do with timing and a clean racing trip. Has Sierra Leone caused some of his own problems and we all know the answer to that is …. Yes. But besides that he always finishes well. As an upset in this race I am not sure if any of the horses in this race it would really be considered and upset as I feel a case could be made for all in it. But if Honor Marie wins it (which I don’t expect to happen so I guess that would be an upset).
So with that said so with a smaller field I give Sierra Leone a great chance of winning this race as I expect a lively pace and a smaller field he would have less traffic to maneuver through which would set it up for a closer. The only thing that would screw things up is if Prat pushes the envelope too fast on him and take the kick out of him and leaving him flat for the stretch.
Downthestretch, I think you are agreeing with me. Ha ha A special horse can overcome adversity, you mention a host of problems that Sierra Leone prevents him from winning races because of his style of running which I agree with.
I’m not disparaging Sierra Leone per se, he is a good but not a special horse due to his race record unless he starts overcoming adversity in races. Good luck on Saturday.
Steve Haskin points out Fierceness. Deservedly so. But there is another Mike Repole and Todd Pletcher runner in the very next 14th race on Saturday. Storm Ready cost $1,000,050 and will be running for a $50k Claiming Tag after only 4 races. A suspicious drop in class to say the least. To be honest, Repole owns that horse in partnership with St. Elias Stables. Probably best not to touch that horse with a 10-foot pole. But if you have an extra $50k laying around, you can claim a million dollar horse at a bargain basement price.
I will probably give Sierra Leone another chance. I hope the 3rd time Flavien Prat is the charm. I always expect him to be there at the finish.
Of course, Steve Haskin is probably right that it’s time for Fierceness to finally run 2 alike. However, Todd Pletcher has said that the horse needs more time. And that how he runs depends on his feed tub. Apparently, an empty feed tub equates to a big race. If Fierceness doesn’t eat, he runs badly. I don’t make ’em up pally(an old Jim Healy line). Todd Pletcher actually said that a few weeks ago. It’s been said that Fierceness doesn’t run well when things don’t go his way. Dornoch, Thorpedo Anna, Unmatched Wisdom, and Batten Down could make things uncomfortable for him. And he is 0 for 1 at a mile and a quarter.
It’s a good edition of the Travers.
I cant buy the theory if he doesnt eat he runs bady. I cant imagine Pletcher or any trainer running any horse in any race if theyre not eating.
I agree with you Steve.
Just think Fierceness marches to the beat of his own drum.
He is my pick to win Saturday though my feelings will not be hurt if Anna wins.
.
I would love nothing more than to see Anna win. I would love to see her stalk the pace and use her quick turn of foot, but the 1 post may force her to try to outrun all the speed and take away her main weapon. I dont like horses having to stalk from the inside,
Same here.
A very nice card of racing on Saturday at Saratoga. The one disappointment is the Sword Dancer, which only drew 6 runners. The 2 Charlie Appleby runners look dominate at even-money and 7-5 on the Morning Line. Of the 4 U.S. horses, the 2 Cristophe Clement entrants are both 8-1 on the ML. Soldier Rising hasn’t won a race in 2 years, but is fresh as he makes his 2nd start off a long layoff. Jose Ortiz apparently chose to ride Soldier Rising over Far Bridge. Soldier Rising has finished second 11 times in his 22 starts. Is that a negative or a positive? IDK. I might take a shot with Far Bridge just because I like English Channel and Kitten’s Joy in his pedigree profile. I hope that carries him the mile and a half. Joel Rosario has ridden him well in the past. It could be foolhardy to oppose the 2 Godolphin runners, but Measured Time lost in his only try at a mile and a half and I’m not in love with the runners that Silver Knott has been beating in his so far perfect 2024. Silver Knott does have a win at a mile and a half though. Interestingly, Soldier Rising looks to have outworked Far Bridge in their last 2 workouts. It might be better to watch this race.
I wonder if any of these horses will run as 4 year olds? I just read that Dornoch will start just once more after the Travers. I’m not sure the game is crying out for another decent but not great horse at stud. These partnerships can’t wait to cash out.
Unless they hit it big at stud or won the Triple Crown our 3 year olds will never be remembered
They either need to be gelded or sired by Lucky Pulpit!….
…and win grade 1 stakes at age 5
IMO Thorpedo Anna has an excellent chance to upset the Travers. She has been crushing G1 fillies without being asked. As Mcpeek said ‘ she has been winning easily and has never felt the sting of the whip’ Races are won by talented horses and not by speed figures. Anna has won easily so far and has run as fast as she has needed to , to win. She will have to run faster and the race of her life to beat the boys on Saturday. I believe she can do it. SL and Dornoch will be her main competition to get to the winners circle. I don’t trust Fierceness , who has tried 1 1/4 once and backed up badly. I will only use TA,SL,D in my P5. I will place a $10 TRI 1/2,7/2,7. Should be an exciting undercard as well as a competitive Travers.
I wouldnt call it an upset. Some experts feel she could be the favorite. Your mistrust of Fierceness is understandable but dont go by the Derby. The 1 1/4 miles had nothing to do with it, He was done after a mile.
Steve,
Thanks for this article and trying to make sense of the mind boggling colt name Fierceness. As things stand now I think he will make a good account of himself but I do not see him winning. First, He is a Todd P trained front runner. Pletcher does not have a good track record with a horse with this running style going 1 1/4 miles. Two, from the looks of some of the other contenders he will not make an easy lead in this race (unless the rest all stumble out of the gate) . 3rd , how will the track maintenance crew set up this track ? Will it favor the outside horses (which would be a plus for Fierceness and also Dornoch) or will it favor the inside which would help Thorpedo Anna and Sierra Leone. I am leaning for now the inside.
Per my previous post on your previous column right now I am going to play a 4 horse exacta box of Thorpedo Anna, Corporate Power, Sierra Leone and Dornoch. This can all change based on what I see on Saturday and if I see an extreme track bias to the outside part of the track which would make me incline to include Fierceness as one of my choices.
Steve, Thanks for get us “thinking” about this group of 3 year olds. A perplexing bunch they are !!!
PS Counterpoint I hope I have enough paragraphs for you. (LOL)
I can understand you not liking him, but I’m curious why you call him a frontrunner who will not make an easy lead when in his seven races he’s been on the lead only twice, once in his career debut and the other in a weak Florida Derby field with no speed. Good luck on your exacta box. It certainly is playable.
For me a definition of a frontrunner is a horse that wants the lead and is either on the lead or is within 2 to 3 lengths of it after completing the first turn of a 2 turn race and for the most part Fierceness fits that bill. I watched all his races again and the Champagne race is a real head scratcher. He starts with a bobble and then midway thru the back stretch get cut off but then seems to find his stride. Then on the far turn makes a big move but then all of sudden quits !?!?!?. Was that a training issue? We will never know. To me his best race is the Breeder Cup Juvenile ( Yes better than the Jim Dandy were he benefited from a track bias and a smart ride by the jockey and the Florida Derby which was comprised of a weak field) .
We have different definitions of a frontrunner.
Steve, I’m not sure what to make of Fierceness, but I admire your hopefulness, for lack of a better word, that he will finally become all he is capable of. That’s really the thrill of the sport, isn’t it? Seeing a horse of known brilliance live up to his or her full potential.
Fierceness aside, there are so many horses in this field to root for: Dornach to keep confounding everyone by winning yet again, Sierra Leone (or Honor Marie!) to finally take down a big one, Unmatched Wisdom or Corporate Report for a break-out win. Not to forget Thorpedo Anna. Wouldn’t it be cool if she up and beat them all?
I’m looking forward to a great race.
I’m not hoping for anything, just giving everyone food for thought. I would love to see Thorpedo Anna win, but this is a tough spot.
I meant you are always looking for the silver lining, the holy grail, the moment when skyrockets fire . . . You are a horse racing optimist, as well as an empathetic, encyclopedic source of knowledge and thought-provoking content for all of us, your loyal readers.
Lol. Gotcha. I hope Im a realist, but I do tend to defend horses people dislike.
Spoken like a writer with a lot to say!
Scylla and Batten Down will be racing on the same card, too. Good storylines for all!
Yes Katy, Scylla goes into the Ballerina Stakes to spice up her speed for the Distaff and Batten Down goes into the Travers Stakes to reinforce his stamina for a possible tilt at the Breeders’ Cup Classic if he performs well enough.
Both dividends look positive.
I think it is very sporting of Mike Repole to have Fierceness in this one. I know he wants to win the Travers, but even with a loss, he might come out looking quite shrewd.
I wonder if there was consideration of the timeframe to Nov. 2? If Fierceness wins the Travers, he’s hands-down a hero. If not, he gets 10 weeks between this and the Classic. Maybe they’re happy if they win just one of these, and the timeline looks more favorable with a start (in a race they’d rather win) on Saturday.
There are already people looking past this race at the BC Classic for Fiereceness coming off a rest and on his upward spiral.
Everyone believes Anna is going to be sent to the front from her inside post. If you look at her past performances the only time she has led a race before 6F was in the Kentucky Oaks. Believe her best chance is to establish an inside stalking position and then make a move around the far turn. Asking an awful lot of this filly. Think she is overmatched in this field but wish her a safe trip.
STM, I agree with your post, start to finish.
Incidentally, the trip you imagine is the trip Swiss Skydiver took to juuust win the 2020 Preakness, in a very Dornoch-like fashion.
Her trainer sometimes pushes. Dan- tired after racing in three races in five weeks. Now, maybe done for the year. The filly drew bad post, not excited regarding her running in this race. Not a great move by connections.
There’s video of Mystik Dan enjoying himself on hiatus! Kicking up a storm, he’s going to return a top horse! He’s happy and looking good!..
Matthew, totally agree regarding Dan given a break,however losing the Preakness trainer didn’t need to push on with Belmont.
Thanks Steve, as usual your observations always give us something more to think about. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again ” When Haskin speaks we should listen” That I’ve chiseled in stone! If Fierceness does put it together and win can he get one more for 3 in a row. The Die is cast and this is his Rubicon! You gotta just love this game!
Thanks Derek but thats too much pressure on me. I’ve been handicapping for 56 years and I still dont feel as if I know what I’m doing. I think you should chisel what I say in sand, Lol
But you do get us thinking and that’s GOOD! I’ve always thought that pressure is like the UPS man, he’s going to leave the package but you don’t have to sign for delivery and we end up dealing with it anyway
Good analogy :). Your opening sentence is what its all about, thank you. If it gets people thinking and is also entertaining then I’ve accomplished what I want. Being right is just a residual of what I try to do.
If I were a disciplined bettor, I would skip this race, but racing is all about opinions, so here goes. I’m looking at two scenarios, neither using the unreliable closers. The less likely, Thorpedo Anna is sent from the rail, assuming she breaks this time, and just keeps going. The more likely, Dornoch emerges from the logjam of speed horses at the 3/8 pole and just keeps grinding to the wire. I think Luis Saez knows how to measure out his relentless speed and keep him going. Of course, it is a race, like any other, and with no dominant horse, anything will happen.
Sorry I crashed the new blog—I hadn’t realized that—but I will put my two cents worth about Fierceness….as the saying goes, “his best is best”—well, Fierceness has proven his best race trumps everyone else’s not named Arthur’s Ride….and WHY am I going to not play him? Well…..it’s this: Todd TWICE was quoted as saying they WEREN’T going…..and their plan was Pennsylvania—-He runs lights out in the Jim Dandy—and here he is…bur Todd seemed adamant, so at the very least it looks like he had a big change of plan…..frankly I’m not sure they’re going….
Matthew, I’d hazard a guess that they’re not confident that Fierceness is a true 10f horse. With Mindframe out of the Travers it seems inevitable they’ll run Fierceness but who knows, really?
I’m happy—to see Colonel John is back home—was he the best? No….he won the Gr1 Santa Anita Derby…the Gr1 Travers…and he ran that off the charts turf mile, at Del Mar…..I bet him big in the Zenyatta Classic, he ran 5th….that’s about right, he was good and he was honest, one of my favorite horses if this century and certainly better looking than his sire, Ol Dinosaur Head… Colonel John was more slender than his sire..very wellbalanced bay….stay home!!..
Great to hear CJ returns.
Great news – he was a favorite of mine. I hate to see them go overseas, and love it when they can come back home.
I failed and made a post about Colonel John on last week’s, but I agree this was HAPPY news! He looks like he needs some weight, but I know they’ll do that carefully.
It’s been a bummy couple of weeks, with Black Caviar and (of course) her colt both dying. The Rich Strike saga remains as exasperating as ever. (Who on earth wants to breed to that poor horse? ) Then we had pretty two big name retirements… so I am excited that CJ is home! The Man O’ War sireline may very well get a couple more cracks at a stick-around… or we can just be glad that he’s here where he ought to be.
Matthew W, you right about Tiznow, and you made me literally LOL! Thankfully, he got enough look-of-eagles eye – and history of putting that looong head to good use.
Ol Dinosaur Head?! That makes me think of a line from an old jazz number, “I don’t like ya cuz yo feets too big.” I think we all love Tiznow.
Glad to see Colonel John is back. May he have a long and happy life here in the States.
Feets Too Big by Fats Waller. I like him too.
Jazz it up, Ms Blacktype!! Dinah Washington – “If I were a Bell”…
“Pal, if I were a salad
I know I’d be splashing my dressing”
“If I were a bell I’d go ding dong ding dong ding…
Tiznow’s Throwback Mix Tape. “She’s Hot to Go,” by Lyle Lovett.