Breeders’ Cup Classic: What a Difference a Year Makes
There is no main road that leads to Del Mar and the Nov. 2 Breeders’ Cup Classic winner’s circle, and this year’s group of prospective starters is a perfect example. All you have to do is look back at this year’s Classic contenders and see where they were at this time last year. ~ Steve Haskin
Breeders’ Cup Classic: What a Difference a Year Makes
By Steve Haskin
It is safe to say we haven’t seen as many roads leading to the Breeders’ Cup Classic as we are seeing this year. In fact, road signs to Del Mar during the past year have been spotted on four continents.
Let’s take a look at where those heading to the 2024 Classic were last year at this time.
Forever Young was an unraced 2-year-old heading to his career debut at Kyoto Race Course in Japan.
Subsanador had been shipped to John Sadler’s barn at Santa Anita from his native Argentina, having last run in the July 29 Peru Stakes at Hipodromo Argentino de Palermo.
City of Troy had won his first two career starts at The Curragh in Ireland and Newmarket in England and was pointing for the following week’s Dewhurst Stakes at Newmarket.
Ushba Tesoro had just come off a six-month layoff after winning the Dubai World Cup in March to score a victory in a listed race at Funabashi Race Course.
Fierceness had just laid the biggest egg of the year in the Champagne Stakes finishing a dismal seventh, beaten 20 lengths at odds of 1-2, after winning his career debut by more than 11 lengths, earning impressive speed figures.
Sierra Leone was an unraced 2-year-old preparing for his career debut with huge expectations after being purchased for $2.3 million earlier that year at public auction.
Arthur’s Ride hadn’t run in eight months since breaking his maiden in early February and would not run for another five months.
Derma Sotogake was on a six-month vacation back home in Japan, not having run since his sixth-place finish in the Kentucky Derby.
Newgate was a 3-year-old who had not run for eight months and would not run again for another three months.
Highland Falls had recently finished third in an allowance race at Churchill Downs as the 2-1 favorite in his second career start.
Tapit Trice was on the sidelines for the remainder of the year following a third-place finish in the Travers Stakes, his fourth consecutive defeat, including a seventh-place finish in the Kentucky Derby as the 9-2 second choice.
Senor Buscador was coming off a pair of defeats in California prior to the Breeders’ Cup Classic, in which he would finish seventh at odds of 29-1.
I still don’t know if Seize the Grey is pointing for the Classic or the Dirt Mile, but if it is the Classic, at this time last year he was coming off a fourth-place finish in the Iroquois Stakes, the fourth start of his career, and was one week away from getting beat over 10 lengths in an allowance race.
So, now take yourself back to this weekend one year ago and pick one of these horses to win the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Classic based on where they were in their career at that time. Good luck.
Of course we know what has happened since.
Forever Young would go into the Kentucky Derby undefeated, winning the Saudi Derby and UAE Derby, and many felt he was the best horse at Churchill Downs, getting beat two noses after being shoved the length of the stretch by Sierra Leone. He would return last week to win the Japan Dirt Classic and has now amassed over $3 million in earnings.
Subsanador would run second, beaten a head, in the Santa Anita Handicap in his second start in the U.S. before being turned over to Dick Mandella this past April, winning the recent $1 million, Grade 1 California Crown, getting revenge on his Big Cap conqueror Newgate.
City of Troy, being a son of Triple Crown winner Justify, would be targeted for the Breeders’ Cup Classic early this year by trainer Aidan O’Brien and would go on to win the English Derby and then defeat older horses in the Eclipse Stakes and Juddmonte International.
Ushba Tesoro would run a credible fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, beaten only 3 ¼ lengths, and then win a Grade 1 in Japan in December. This year at age 7 he has finished a fast-closing second in the Saudi Cup, Dubai World Cup, and the recent Nippon TV Hai, the same he used last year as his BC Classic prep. His earnings now stand at an astronomical $16.4 million, making hm the third leading earner of all time.
Fierceness’s inconsistencies would continue, especially following up his 13 ½-length romp in the Florida Derby with a disastrous 15th-place finish, beaten more than 24 lengths in the Kentucky Derby. But after a 2 ½-month freshening he finally matured into a professional and competitive racehorse, putting together hard-fought back-to-back victories in the Jim Dandy and Travers Stakes at Saratoga.
Sierra Leone has shown superstar qualities, especially with his powerful closing kick, but after victories in the Risen Star and Blue Grass Stakes, he has run a series of frustrating second- and third-place finishes, costing himself a Kentucky Derby victory by lugging in on Forever Young the entire length of the stretch and getting beat a nose. Following more tough defeats in the Belmont, Jim Dandy, and Travers Stakes, he has been freshened up and will be looking for a fast, contentious pace in the Classic.
Arthur’s Ride came back this past March to romp in a pair of allowance races before winning the Whitney Stakes wire-to-wire, but tired badly to finish fifth in The Jockey Club Gold Cup.
Derma Sotogake would run a sensational race in last year’s Classic, finishing second at odds of 26-1. This year he was a disappointing fifth and sixth, respectively, in the Saudi Cup and Dubai World Cup, But it’s been said he had a couple of unfortunate incidents regarding a bad experience on the plane going to Saudi Arabia followed by a severe equipment issue. Given six months off, he returned in the Nippon TV Hai and tired to finish a well-beaten fifth after chasing the wire-to-wire winner from the start and failing to change leads in the stretch. Amazingly, that was his first start in Japan in almost two years.
Newgate returned from an 11-month absence with a pair of tough second-place finishes before scoring a gutsy head victory over Subsanador in the Santa Anita Handicap. Shipped to Dubai for the World Cup, he was wide the whole way and never seemed to get hold of the track, finishing ninth in a fluky run race that saw the victorious Laurel River go wire-to-wire to win by almost nine lengths. Returning from another layoff, this time six months, he ran a strong third, beaten two noses, in the Grade 1 California Crown. In his last eight starts he has two wins by a head and a neck, four seconds by a neck, a half-length, one length, and 1 ¼ lengths, and one third by a head.
Highland Falls made his stakes debut in this year’s Santa Anita Handicap, running a respectable fourth, beaten only 2 ½ lengths. He has since had two victories and two seconds in four graded stakes, culminating with a four-length score in the 1 ¼-mile Jockey Club Gold Cup at Saratoga.
Tapit Trice returned from an 11-month layoff to soundly defeat Highland Falls by 5 ¼ lengths in the Grade 3 Monmouth Cup. The latter turned the tables on him in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, as Tapit Trice could manage only a well-beaten fourth-place finish, but came back to defeat only three opponents in the Woodward Stakes, just getting up to win by three-quarters of a length in the slop.
Senor Buscador, at age 6, would win the world’s richest race, the Saudi Cup, before finishing third in the Dubai World Cup. He would return later in the year with two out-of-the-money performances, the latter a lackluster fifth-place finish, beaten 15 lengths, in the Grade 1 California Crown, which his connections attribute to the effects of the Middle East trip and are inclined to give him another chance.
Seize the Grey has had an up and down career, but his ups have been way up, with victories in the Grade 1 Preakness and Pennsylvania Derby and the Grade 2 Pat Day Mile.
So, you can see just how much these Classic horses have changed in one year and how far most of them have come, with 11 of the 13 horses listed being either lightly raced and unproven, unraced, on a long vacation, or being shipped here from another country.
Now they all converge on Del Mar having run at 38 racetracks in six countries on four continents. During their career they have won a total of 49 stakes – 23 of them Grade or Group 1, as well as winning four 2-year-old championships in four different countries.
There basically have been three types of Classics. The vast majority of its winners have been good horses who were not superstars going into the race and have made little or no impact on the history books. On rare occasions you did have a headliner who was the star of the entire Breeders’ Cup and who many came to see, such as Flightline, Zenyatta, Cigar, and Alysheba, who shared top billing with Distaff favorite Personal Ensign in their battle for Horse of the Year. Even rarer was the much anticipated showdown between two superstars, such as Sunday Silence and Easy Goer and to a lesser degree California Chrome and Arrogate. The one winner whose Classic was actually a part of American history was Tiznow, who became the only back-to-back winner, with his second victory coming in New York right after 9/11.
But this year we could have a Classic winner that fits none of these categories and centers around foreign invaders. Could the biggest headliner of the day be the Irish-trained superstar City of Troy, who is looking to become the second foreign-trained horse to win the Classic on dirt? We have had several come very close and we did have that fluky Classic, in which European milers Ravens Pass and Henrythenavigator finished first and second on a synthetic surface at Santa Anita in a race that hardly anyone ever mentions.
And then you have major history in the making if one of the three Japanese invaders wins, especially Forever Young, a horse Americans seem to have embraced off his victories in Saudi Arabia and Dubai and mainly his hard-luck head defeat in the Kentucky Derby, a race iin which many felt he was the best horse.
The most interesting American horse would have to be Fierceness, who would create arguably one of the most dramatic reputation reversals of all time if he could wim his third straight major race after basically being branded a horse with no fight in him who was unable or unwilling to overcome any adversity.
So that is the introduction to the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Classic. Stay tuned for any additional stories that might unfold in the upcoming weeks,
Photo courtesy of Breeders’ Cup Ltd.
Racing historian, author, and award-winning retired journalist for the Daily Racing Form and The Blood-Horse, Steve Haskin was inducted into the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame’s Media Roll of Honor in 2016. Known for his racing knowledge and insightful prose, he has been an exclusive contributor to Secretariat.com since 2020.
The HRN web site has a list of13 who are probable/possible for the BCJ. They are listed in the order of the rating system the platform has in place. The top 3 are listed below:
Chancer McPatrick – 1st 8F Champagne
Citizen Bull – 1st 8 1/2F American Pharaoh
East Avenue – 1st 8 1/2FKeeneland Breeders Futurity
From 2004 -2023 the winners of the above Stakes returned to win the BCJ as follows:
Champagne:
2007 -War Pass
2010 – Uncle Mo
2012 – Shanghai
American Pharoah:
015 – Nyquist
2018 – Game Winner
2021 – Corniche
Keeneland breeder Futurity:
2022 – Forte
2020 – Essential Quality
2016 – Classic Empire
Whilst the above 9 represents the winners of the respective stakes that returned to win the BCJ. There were non-winners during the period that also returned to win the BCJ. The most noteworthy was Good Magic who finished 2nd in the Champane and retuned to win the BCJ whilst an entrant in both stakes as a maiden.
The top three for the BCJ were last out winners of 3 stakes whose winners have accounted for almost 50% of the BCJ wins in the last 20 years. How can they be differentiated for purpose of assigning the top spot for wagering?
I have been focusing on the 8F splits. The revelation is interesting.
No AP Stakes winner that returned to win the BCJ recorded a mile spit in the 2T prep below 1:37. These CA based BCJ winers didn’t overwhelm the competition. Citizen Bull’s 8F split was 1:37.32
The winners of the 1Turn Champagne Stakes that returned to win the BCJ, recorded an average winning time of 1:35 plus. Uncle Mo’s winning time was 1:34 plus and he decimated his BCJ opponents. Chancer Mc Patrick’s winning time was 1:36.59 whilst fully extended.
Only one winner of the Keeneland Futurity that returned to win the BCJ recorded a mile split below 1:37. That was Classic Empire. Interestingly, his Futurity 8F split of 1:36.89 was the best on dirt in the over last 20 years. He destroyed Practical Joke in the BCJ who won the Champane in 1:35 plus. East Avenue’s 8F split geared down in the Futurity was 1:36.57. This represent the fastest 8F split in the last 17 renewals of the Futurity on dirt.
Folks, East Avenue is an exceptional colt. He should win the BCJ handily despite the hype surrounding others.
Hi Counter Point
Not to be picky, but Chancer McPatrick’s final time in the Champagne Stakes was 1:36.51 (not 1:36.59). Bottom line, CM ran a faster mile than East Avenue.
Just as a suggestion, review the video replay of the Champagne Stakes, and watch Chancer McPatrick close like a freight train from far back to draw off by 2 3/4 lengths.
Hopefully, Flavien Prat will remain aboard CM in the BC Juvenile. However, Prat was the rider on Gaming, winner of the Del Mar Futurity, so it will be interesting to see which colt he will ride in the Juvenile.
Needless to say, the BC Juvenile is shaping up to be a very competitive race.
I’ll go with Chancer McPatrick for the win.
Good luck with East Avenue
Very informative and great work. The colt that seems to be the ‘wild card’ in the Juvenile for me is Gaming. Undefeated at Del Mar, albeit only 2 races, but the way he won the Del Mar Futurity was nice. Working great, little respite since that win, and no telling how good he will be at 1st time routing.
I’m going to speculate a 1:42 will win this.
This has been a sad week for New York breeding as three outstanding stallions have been pensioned in the past few days. Freud, Mission Impazable, and Big Brown were favorites of mine, and I always thought that if I were a breeder, I would be beating on their door. They’ve earned a happy retirement and I wish them well. Big Brown and Mission Impazable have moved to Old Friends. I haven’t heard about Freud’s plans but I hope he can stay where he is. Becky Thomas described Sequel Stallions as “the farm that Freud built,” and it would be wonderful if he could live out his days on his own farm. But wherever they retire to, they’ve given breeders a lot to be grateful for and they will be missed.
Thank you so much for the heads-up about Big Brown, Jiffy. Ironically, a dear friend of mine who was a big fan of his just passed away last month. She donated to Old Friends, too. How she would have loved to visit him there!
He is getting the royal treatment at Old Friends. The Blood Horse reports that they are having a four-day “barn bash” in his honor on October 14-18 with parties, auctions, tours, and entertainment. Your friend would be very pleased at the way his presence is being celebrated.
Parchment Party returned to the races yesterday at Keeneland and finished 5th, beaten 4 lengths. I can’t recall what he looked like as a 2 year old, but he seems to have a large frame as a 3 year old? He may have needed this race or he may just be a grinder who lacks speed. We’ll see him next at Churchill, I suspect.
Dewey, I responded to you below about Parchment Party’s performance at Keeneland. In short, Parchment Party was a large framed, tall, late foal, two year old. All his races have been at 1 1/16 mile so he obviously needs two turns to perform at his best. Keeneland is a speed favoring track with a short straight, definitely not ideal for a late closing horse like Parchment Party. Watch the race again. Parchment Party was just getting started in the last half furlong. He’s been away for 10 months or so, he’ll need time to get back into the swing of things.
I agree with you on Parchment Party, Davids. He has been off almost a year, so the least we can do is give him some time to round back into good form.
Say, another of my Bill Mott favorites is returning next week at Keeneland. Knightsbridge is entered Saturday in the Perryville Stakes. It’s a seven furlong race and seems to be a good spot for this talented son of Nyquist. This guy has some sharp works and I think he may be ready for a big effort jn his return.
All told, these are exciting times with the Breeders’ Cup less than three weeks away.
Yes, Dewey. Locked is in the Perryville Stakes as well along with Book’em Danno a very tough assignment for all concerned.
Good grief, I was so excited to see Knightsbridge that I didn’t take time to size up the competition. This race is tougher than I expected and is certainly one to look forward to. Thanks for the heads up, Davids.
Race eight today at Santa Anita is one mile dirt, for two year olds, many nice prospects—I am interested in Brother Tony, who ran a tremendous debut race then was pushed into the grade one and tired badly…it’s a big risk to ask a maiden to step way up—it could greatly affect his mind….
The problem is that he’s already finished behind Rank twice, the last 17 lengths behind in the DM Futurity – when Rank was climbing. If he wins, he’ll blow up the tote
I’ve been a Rank fan all along, but to me, if he doesn’t run extremely well – really, win- he needs to try the turf (he’s got a turfy stride). I feel better that he’s at a track he likes – I don’t think he cared for Del Mar- but I’m not overly confident. I know his connections love him, but it’s time already – better track, finally going two turns.
I’m not sure where Fresau his, his normal jock; I’m unfamiliar with Frey
Bob’s horse worries me. I take what my Baffert loving friend says with a grain of salt because to him every BB and every Justify is a MONSTER. Zabu ran eh in the turf in his debut, but he’ll probably love dirt – he’s worked well and has a huge stride; he’s a huge horse. Every BB baby can run….
Mandella’s colt, ML fave, finished a distant second behind a nice BB. Probably a nice colt, but he may be an overlay
Well in his debut race Brother Tony had tons of trouble, and made up ten lengths on Rank….in his 2nd race he was beaten by Rank again, as you state…..after pushing Getaway Car….he’s 5-1 so if he wins he’s not going to light up the tote board, it’s a pretty nice maiden field….
As far as climbing goes, I have no problem with climbing—Secretariat was a climber—when a horse gets hold of the bit they sometimes climb—climbing is only a problem when a horse gets Rank, but usually climbing is a good sign, of a horse that wants to go….
I can’t say anything about Secretariat, but I’ve never seen climbing used as a positive – at least when it comes to results on a track. It usually means they’re not gripping the track well…that’s what happened to Rank in the Futurity, and Max Player had that issue early in his career
Matthew, climbing is a fault in a horse’s stride. Instead of reaching out, the action is abnormally high. You see a lot of climbing with horse that resent the ground or kickback. Looks like the horse is jumping up or backwards from something.
Secretariat had a fluent action. Do you mean a high action when referring to climbing?
No I meant when Secretariat was offered the bit he would sometimes make a climbing stride, he was eager to go…
I thought that’s what you meant as I couldn’t believe you didn’t know what ‘climbing’ in a race actually was. I understand perfectly what you mean with regards to Secretariat.
I wouldn’t call it tons if trouble, but per the chart, he sure had some. He definitely is a player.
The ML is interesting – I’m not sure how accurate it’s going to be. BB’s horse is going to be shorter than the 6-1 he is now. A lot depends on how short the ML fave is
I agree that pushing horses as maidens in tough stakes is possibly asking for trouble, and even if they’ve worked well since (I know Rank has, not sure about Tony), you don’t know nor they’ll recover mentally
I saw this with even an older horse I follow – he tried hard to push the favorite (who was on the lead), kept trying, kept being repulsed….until he got discouraged and dropped back. He was given time off, and didn’t lift a hoof in the stakes race he was a contender in. Not exactly the same thing, but it shows that the mental game is so important
It is…..Brother Tony was put into a gr1 and he battled with Getaway Car—a one start maiden with a two time stakes winner, you just can’t tell what that maiden will do today, he has shown a turn of foot—I think he could get away with a :47 half today, and the lead, we shall see if that is enough…..
Obviously I want Rank to win, so I hope it doesn’t play out like that, lol.
I do hope Rank shows some more speed…just a little bit would help
But it’s funny – I’ve been waiting for him to go two turns for months, and yet HAP offspring’s AWD is 5.31, lower than even Vekoma and Complexity. So, I think he’s talented, but I’m not overly confident
Betsy, Rank ran really well. He’s starting to get it.
Betsy, you must be happy with Rank’s performance today. Looking good for next year. I was listening to the Santa Anita live feed, they skipped over Rank as if he wasn’t in the race. Some lass was saying she goes by works – she needs some help in what she’s looking for for/at.
I would have liked to have heard what Millie Ball thought but alas, stuck with d**mb and d**mber’s opinion. Both wrong. Ha ha
Don’t forget next Saturday at Ascot, England, the QIPCO British Champions Day will go ahead as a finale of the British flat racing season. There are four Group 1 races but wait til later in the week to see who is actually going to run.
Weather conditions will determine who will actually take part as well as the condition of the track on who will be favorite. Often, there are major upsets at good odds.
In Melbourne, Australia, next Saturday, there is the running of the historic Caulfield Cup (5 million AUS) at Caulfield which is a major prep for the Melbourne Cup. While in Sydney, the 20 million(AUS) The Everest, King CharlesIII Stakes (5 million AUS) , The Kosciusko (2 million AUS), and The Silver Eagle (1 million AUS) races will take place at Randwick.
Enjoy the races.
Wow, I don’t know what the exchange rate is for Aussie dollars to US dollars, but that sounds like a lot of coin, mate. I won’t be able to watch those races live (it’ll be about 3 – 4 am EST) but I’ll try to catch the replays on twinspire.com Good luck, Davids!
Dewey, the exchange rate is 1 Australian dollar is the equal to US .68c. They keep the Aussie dollar artificially low for an export advantage.
It will be interesting to see which horse Flavien Prat choses to ride in the BC Classic, Highland Falls or Sierra Leone. I would think Highland Falls.
A few days ago, Counter Point made a strong case for his choice in the Classic, Highland Falls. His sire, Curlin won the Classic as did his dam sire, Awesome Again. In addition, his dam, Round Pond, won the BC Distaff, (which he didn’t mention).
Yesterday, 10-11, Highland Falls, worked 5 furlongs in 1:01.60 for Brad Cox.
If in fact Prat rides Highland Falls in the Classic, I’ll switch from Sierra Leone (my initial choice) and go Highland Falls.
I’d be surprised if Prat got off Sierra Leone…
Get ready for a big surprise Matthew W.
Sorry for the off topic request: Has anyone else tried to select Blog under More on the Bloodhorse main webpage? It says Bad Request (Invalid Hostname) today, have tried several times. Other parts of their website are working fine.
Sites are now back up, they were out for everyone.
Personify debut today, at Gulfstream, taken off turf he set a :44 1/5 half, finished in :56 3/5 a very fast two year old…
She…
Subsanador out of BCC ankle injury … to return in 2025. Mandella snakebit again !!!
I’m sorry to hear that. Sorry for Mike Smith, too.
Any trainer has experienced the same.
Steve did you know Alan Benowitz? Big Thorograph pattern guy, with the thick New York accent, would come up with some big longshots?…He passed away a couple weeks ago..
A Benowitz saying…”Often after a career best performance, a horse will break poorly in their next race”….
I know the name but didnt know him.
He’d be on the Jason Levin show every Saturday morning for years representing Thoro-Graph. He was a great fan and student of the sport.
I was looking through Secretariat’s races, I used to own his debut Racing Form, bought the day before his race—I saw a horse named Jaques Who, in the program….20-1….I remembered him, he ran 2nd a lot! 117 starts, as a three and four year old…just those two seasons he ran 56 times….
There are 20 probables/possibles listed for the BCC on the Horse Race Nation web site. Of the 20 only 3 have not recorded an off the board finish. I consider a 4th place finish as being on the board as there is a slot on the board for the finishing position. See below –
Forever Young (7 Starts: 6-0-1-0)
Highland Falls (9 Starts: 5-3-1-1)
Sierra Leone (6 Starts: 2-2-2-0)
It is unlikely any of the above will be the post time favorite for the 2024 BCC. Two of the three are deep grinding closers. The other has newfound tactical speed. Could the consistent Highland Falls lead home his fellow category occupants in the BCC? You never know!
City Of Troy –
The captioned colt will attempt to win the BCC with the least # of starts (4) by an entrant from any age group. The record for the least # of starts preceding the BCC is 5 held by Arrogate and Flightline.
We are only 2 years removed from BCC history which featured Flightline emerging as the only undefeated winners. Flightline like Arrogate achieved BCC victory in his 6th start. Both BCC winner never recorded an off the board finish ahead of the major G1 Stake.
City of Troy quest to make history with a BCC win is beyond daunting. What obstacles does the Justify colt have to overcome?
Least number of starts by any winning entrant
First time on dirt
Oppositions likely to be the best on dirt in Japan and USA
Epsom Derby/ Breeder Cup Classic double never previously achieved
The 4th slowest winning time in the Epsom Derby in the last 40 years.
City Of Troy is no part of Galileo despite what the trainer of both colts has asserted. Galileo attempted the Epsom Derby/BCC double and finished 6th in the BCC.
Fierceness –
Steve considers the captioned 3YO the most interesting of the likely American based entrant. Well, opinions will differ on this colt. How many non-winning participants in the KD returned to win the BCC in the same year? Fuzzy memory but here goes –
2007 – Curlin (3rd KD)
1999 – Cat Thief (3rd KD)
1985 – Proud Truth (5th KD)
There have been 13 winners of the BCC from the 3YO age group which includes one British based winner. Seven of the twelve 3YOs contested the KD in the same year. Obviously the 3 above didn’t win but the likes of Authentic, AP, Unbridled and Sunday Silence emerged KD winners.
No 3YO BCC winner who ran in the KD in the same year, has emerged from outside the top 5. Fierceness was 15th by 24L.
NB: Stay Thirsty finished 12th by 11 1/4L in the KD. He returned to finish 2nd in the Belmont, won the Jim Dandy & Travers and finished 3rd in the JCGC ahead of the BCC.
If Fierceness is interesting, then Stay Thirsty had to be more interesting ahead of the BCC. He finished 11 of 12. Same owner/trainer combo.
So the horses with the least number of starts before the Classic both won…..I wouldn’t have thought that….both wins were pretty good…..
Hi Steve, I wish I would be able to put this great insight to use but I will be out of the country. My two cents on the Breeders Cup races, if Graham Motion shows up with anything on the turf, bet him. Let Brown, Appleby, O’Brien(s) take most of the action. I’ve always gotten good odds on Motion horses. Better Talk Now, Main Sequence, Sharing, Shared Account. One of the best to never win a Breeders Cup Race – Film Maker – had the misfortune of having to face Ouiji Board 3 times in the F&M Turf never getting the best of her running 2nd twice and 3rd when OB was second to Bobby Frankel’s Intercontinental. This year it looks like Motion may be running Trikari but I’m not sure. I bet Trikari at. 47/1 on Kentucky Derby Day and still haven’t been back to the track to cash! Anyways, enjoy the racing, it will be a nice respite from you know what.
Motion is one of the trainers I admire by always placing welfare of horses first.
Yes!
I love the way Subsanador moves! He stays low, and reaches! Can tuck inside and can hit thru a seam! Head down heading for the camera….He wins a lot when he’s right….
Thanks Steve for another awesome article and analysis by the expert. Many thanks to Kate Chenery Tweedy for including your column in Secretariat.com. I am sure that her late mother, Penny Chenery is smiling up in heaven.
I’ve read that Fierceness is bigger and stronger for the Classic. And it looks like Forever Young and City of Troy are doing well. It should be a wonderful Classic.
P.S. I hope all will continue to be healthy and I am looking forward to the Pegasus in 2025 with National Treasure from Quality Road and Fierceness-the grandson of Quality Road. National Treasure will be looking for a repeat performance at his sire’s favorite race track.
This is Secetariat.com so I dont know what website you are refering to..
Following the exchanges between Downthestretch, Tod Vaugh, Davids and Mike Relva about the lack of information regarding some talented young horses, it is reported that Nysos, Eagles Fligth and Tamara are back on training with nice workouts (Nysos 4f in 47 3/5, Eagles Flight 2F in 23 1/5 and Tamara 4f in 48 1/5).
Baffert, Saddler and Mandella will have them ready to advance outstanding campaigns next year…
Nelson, thanks for on point updates.
Thanks Nelson, I just checked with Equibase to see that Nysos had worked at Santa Anita on October 10. Downthestretch mentioned that Matthew noted that Nysos was actually training so that’s a bonus and well done all round.
We thought the Malibu Stakes might be the target for Nysos. Still nothing on Maymun though, which is disappointing.
Hey Davids, et al, Equibase has a feature called Virtual Stable. You can add a horse that you’re following to Virtual Stable and they will send you an email when that horse works out. They’ll also send you an email when that horse is entered in a race and after, the result w/chart. It’s a neat feature that I’ve used for several years.
I highly recommend using it.
Thanks Dewey, I have an old DRF service that does the same. I used to have an Equibase account as well but you get too many emails per day.
DRF brings back old memories.
Dewey, Parchment Party ran ok at Keeneland today he was running home late. I thought racing there was against Parchment Party’s style but it was really just a trial run. As much as I like Keeneland’s track it is so bias to front runners and inside draws that it’s quite deceiving. Results there don’t often replicate themselves elsewhere.
Come on Steve!
A writer of your repute and achievements should have immense influence on the folks at Secretariat.com.
A sentence cannot even be quickly rephrased by substituting sections, due to the disablement of right click option allowing for the copy/cut and paste feature.
Let me reiterate. This represents a disservice to your supporter. OK! Exclude me form the list of supporters as I am a nonentity. But certainly, you and your other supporter deserve better.
This disablement represents an assault on IT. And must be viewed as nonprogressive in the IT age. There can be no justification for this decision, irrespective of how one might be spun.
You are the Top Dog in the Thoroughbred Writers Community. You have earned your reputation. This is an idea occasion to use it in support of your supporters.
I understand what you are saying. I cant right click on here either. I,m not knowledgeable enough in the workings of the website to offer a solution, but hopefully Leonard will read this and explain things. My achievements have no bearing on this at all. Sorry I am unable to help.
Champagne winners form Chad Brown’s barn:
2016 -Practical Joke – 1:34.68 (Bel – -Fast) 3rd BCJ; 5th KD – Equibase – 101
2018 – Complexity – 1:34.63 (Bel- Fast) 10th BCJ; DNS in KD – Equibase – 107
2021 – Jack Christopher – 1:36.72 (Bel -Fast) DNS in BCJ/KD – Equibase -107
2022 – Blazing Sevens – 1:37.07 (Big A — S/Sealed) 4th BCJ; DNS in KD -Equibase – 98
2024 – Chanse McPatrick – 1:36.5 (Big A – Fast) BCJ/KD pending – Equibase -98
Champagne non- winner from Chad Brown’s barn:
2023 – General Partner (2nd) – 6th BCJ
2020 – Reinvestment Risk (2nd) – 10th BCJ
2017 – Good magic (2nd) – 1st BCJ
2015 – Portfolio Manager (3rd) DNS in BCJ
From 2014 to 2023, Chad Brown’s Barn has been represented by an entrant in the 8 of the 10 renewals of the Champane Stake. Four of those entrants emerge the winner.
The category of the winners has not produced the winner of the BCJ.
The category of non-winners produced one BCJ winner in Good Magic. He won as a maiden.
The barn with the most successful record in the Champagne in the 10 years spanning 2014 to 2023, has only recorded 1 win in the BCJ. It will be represented by Chancer McPatrick in the 2024 renewal of the BCJ.
What’s the prospect of this colt emerging the winner. The cold facts suggest caution for the fans of this colt. I am prepared to eat crow and assert he is a safe bet against.
Awesome Again –
What does the above horse have to do with the introduction to the 2024 Breeders Cup Classic? Absolutely nothing!
I plan to make Highland Halls my key horse in the 2024 BCC. With a competitive field pending, it is important that emotions are set aside, and cold facts are used to support an entrant intended to be used as the foundation for all wagers.
Why Highland Falls?
There is a profound history associated with this colt pedigree and given his impressive win in the recent JCGC. The two factors in combination makes him significant likely entrant. OK! We all witnessed his JCGC win. Now, Let’s have the history.
In 1998 Awesome Again won the BCC defeating what was possibly the most competitive field assemble in the history of the race. Those that witnessed race and heard the race call, are still likely to remember when the commentor on seeing the explosive stretch run in progress, uttered Awesome Again as if holding an extremely long note in song. The son of Deputy Minister closed from 3rd last to win.
Six later a brilliantly fast colt by the name Ghostzapper, set a NSR with a gate to wire performance to win the 2004 BCC. The son of Awesome Again had an opposite running style to that of his sire who was an explosive stretch runner.
In 2007 Curlin won the BCC as a member of a trio of colts who are regarded as the best in several generations. Hard Spun and Street Sense are the others comprising the trio.
In 2019, twelve years after Curlin’s BCC win. His late developing son Vino Rosso won the BCC.
Interestingly, Awesome Again was sired by Deputy Minister. Curlin’s dam was sire by Deputy Minister.
In Highland Falls, is a likely entrant whose sire Curlin won the BCC and also sired a BCC winner. His dam sire Awesome Again won the BCC and also sired a BCC winner.
Were we previously blessed with this combination of sire and dam sire with such a history. That would be yes.
Keen Ice the slayer of TC winner American Pharoach in the 2015 Traver, is a son of Curlin out of an Awesome Again mare. AP defeated Keen Ice in their 3 previous meetings. He was the most unlikely of AP’s Travers opponents to defeat him. But sometimes the power of pedigree surfaces when least expected.
Keen Ice recorded 3 wins from 24 starts with his most noticeable win being in the Travers. He contested the BCC twice recording 4th & 3rd place finishes. Highland Fall has 9 starts to date, with 5 wins and has never been off the board. It would be a stretch to assert that he is a much better horse than Keen Ice and will have to be to win the 2024 BCC.
The Jockey Club Gold Cup has been historically significant prep for the BCC. Several winners and runner ups have subsequently won or finished 2nd in the BCC. The JCGC was by far Highland Falls best performance. He displayed never before seen tactical speed and his usual stamina to sustain his gallop in the stretch.
The progenies of Curlin get better with age. The likes of Keen Ice, Vino Rosso, Cody’s Wish and Elite Power bear testament to same. The best is probably yet to come for Highland Falls. It is hoped it will be in the 2024 BCC.
NB: Curlin could emerge as the only BCC winner to sire two winners of the race. Awesome Again could emerge as BCC winner, sire and dm sire of BCC winners.
Counter Point can’t fault with Highland Falls. I have always like him but keeping him healthy has been the issue. His JGC like you said was his best race yet and I agree with you when you said Curlin’s seem get better with age. He and Newgate (as Joe P and Steve have pointed out earlier) could be sitting on big races.
For those of you wondering about “Gaming” I saw that he had a 4 furlong workout yesterday at Santa Anita. Just a maintenance work in 48:2
Thanks, Downthestretch. I, for one, was starting to get slightly concerned on where he was.. Baffert’s horses can go missing without explanation. I was hoping that Nysos or Maymun might reappear for the Malibu Stakes but that is beyond doubtful now, I guess.
Davids, I am thinking that is were we will see Nysos. It is still early and if Matthew W is right in that he is galloping right now it is still early enough for him to get him in shape for that. Malibu Stakes is only 7 furlongs. Not really what happen to Maymun but 2 days after his last work he shut him down.
I checked Equibase today with both of them and they have no history on either so that is great news re: Nysos. Speed Boat Beach is back in training again so there’s another top runner to look forward to shortly.
2025 might be a massive year for Bob Baffert.
Some do not grasp concept other great trainers with very good horses in training. Contrary to some opinions,he’s not the only ride in the park.
Davids, enjoying your discussion of prominent horses, one-trick-ponies notwithstanding.
Thinking ‘one trick ponies’ applies also to those who fawn over one trainer, right?
Todd, let’s hope the one trick ponies go forward and become competition stalwarts. Yes, I get the joke, they don’t last long enough. lol.
This year’s Breeders’ Cup races, the Classic in particular, are a difficult read as there are so much hesitancy to ‘nail your colours to the mast’ so to speak to a particular runner. The fun of racing. Ha ha
Whether you like Bob Baffert, or not, he has a host of highly talented runners that would give racing fans a feast of enjoyment – if they could just get on the track. It’s frustrating.
Exciting times, nonetheless.
.
I’m not sure how good Arthur’s Ride is, especially in relation to the internationals, but I always give Bill Mott an extra look in the big race. Always a tough day to handicap, but that’s why we’re here.
Yes, I’m the same regarding Bill Mott. He thinks Arthur’s Ride wasn’t given enough time between races then who would know better? Mott isn’t the type to make a fool of himself either.
I just can’t figure out a feasible scenario, you will have to see how they like the track. Forever Young seems perhaps the most solid of all the runners.
Talking about missing talented horses, do you know what happened with Eagles Fligth? he is Flightline’s half brother by Curlin who had an auspicious debut on May 27 …
Good question, Nelson. No info at present.
Yes, David’s sometimes they go missing without ever returning.
As I said earlier, Baffert said the plan was to train up to the race.
Yes, Ms ‘Marple’ Blacktype but whom do you mean? Ha ha I’m guessing you are meaning Gaming? But I could be wrong. Ha ha
Didn’t mean to cause a mystery, Davids! Yes, I meant Gaming.
All good, Ms Blacktype. I read all the Agatha Christie books as a teenager and one of the amusing things about Miss Marple was she would come out with perplexing statements which dumbfounded everyone. Ha ha I thought it was fun, guessing.
Hi Steve – This is shaping up to be a very competitive BCC with no obvious standouts. Fierceness has to be respected now that he has won at 1 1/4. City of Troy appears to be a superstar, but will he handle the dirt. The best of them all could be Forever Young who is fine at 1 1/4. My longshot play at double digit odds will be Nob Bafferts Newgate. He broke his Maiden at Delmar so you know he likes the track and has a win at 1 1/4. I will use those 4 in my Early and Late P5.
I’m with you on Newgate. At this point thats who I’m looking at as a longshot who may be ready for a peak performance. He does have a tendency to hang a little at times, but hes a fighter and can gut it out as well.
Steve,
With your classification of the 2008 BCC as Fluky. You have left yourself opened to classy the 2009 BCC won by Zenyatta at the same venue and on the same surface.
There are a lot of BCCs that are hardly mentioned.
Before Flightline’s widest winning margin of 8 1/4L in the 2002 BCC. Few would recall that Volponi’s 6 1/2L winning margin in the 2002 BBC was the record for the widest winning margin it was equaled by American Pharaoch..
The 2002 BCC with its historic winning margin is hardly ever mentioned
Volponi was my pick as the best bet in the entire Breeders’ Cup and the biggest bet I ever cashed. That race was only a fluke in other peopl;e’s minds. On that day I thought he was a lock.
Steve, we’ve all applauded your talent as a great writer, but, we often overlook your prowess as a sneaky good handicapper. I remember Volponi’s win very well and was kicking myself that I didn’t listen to you. What a score! When will I ever learn? lol
Thanks Dewey. I am right once in a while, but not as often as I’d like. LOL
Sometimes the “Dartboard” can be useful … LOL (Just having fun with you )
Steve’s articles have the effect of moving the cogwheels of our memory like nothing else.
This column featuring the “one year later” theme flew me to the 2007 BC Classic as the one exempliftying the most changes in one year… the year when the 3-year-olds were visibly superior to the older horses (in number and quality as well).
If you recall the top five finishers in that 3-year-old dominated BCC and their status a year prior, you will see that Curlin had not even debuted in November of 2006. We had to wait until February 3rd, 2007 to start enjoying Curlin’s portent.
Hard Spun had just won his debut at Delaware (October 22, 2006). Even after his commanding win at 5 1/2 furlongs by nine lengths in 64 seconds flat no one would have predicted that the son of the eternal Danzig would end up being the third best 3-year-old of 2007.
Awesome Gem had jut won an Allowance at Oak Tree and Tiago was still a maiden …
Of course, Street Sense’s first Stakes victory was exactly a year before his disappointing 4th in the BC Classic. Street Sense won the BC Juvenile in a record winning margin of 10 lengths. The son of Street Cry was only the second 2-year-old champion enduring long enough to the BC Classic this Century. The first one was Macho Uno who contested two BC Classics. The last 2-year-old champion to compete in the BCC this Century was Uncle Mo in 2011.
There at least a dozen more horses that morphed quite notably in one year going to the BCC but I just wanted to mention the cases of Arrogate and Flightline. They were two of the most spectacular shooting stars of the last Decade of horse racing (joining Justify in that exceptional league) …
Arrogate debuted in April and, as it is well known, started his Hall of Fame campaing winning the Travers in a Stakes record time. Following that extraordinary effort the son of Unbridled’s Song, with only 6 starts, won an epic battle against another Hall of Famer in California Chrome who at that time had run 24 times having earned two championships and two Horse of the Year honors in 2014 and 2016.
The matchless Flightline was a winner of a maiden and an Allowance (in breathtaking times of 1:08 for 6 furlonds) a year before his record-breaking winning margin in the BC Classic.
Discounting the 2020 BC Classic you will see that the last 3-year-old winning the top race was Arrogate in 2016.
If french based runner, Facteur Cheval, enters the BCC the race will be the most international-laden ever.
Even so, there are some parallels between the 2007 BC Classic and this year’s renewal in that the 3-year-olds show better achievements collectively and stronger momentum than that of their older rivals.
Despite all the confidence we may have in the brilliant younger horses sometimes the only way to know who the better horse is on the day is after the big race is over.
Sorry Nelson, but you have forgotten Essential Quality. Essential Quality won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in 2020 and was third in the Breeders’ Cup Classic in 2021.
Moreover, let’s give Essential Quality a little bit of praise as well. Essential Quality is the ONLY colt to ever win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and the Belmont Stakes. Bravo!!
Essential Quality was crowned Champion 2 year old and Champion 3 year old.
Street Sense came fourth in his Breeders’ Cup Classic, Macho Uno came fourth & fifth respectively in his two BCCs, while Uncle Mo came in 10th in his attempt in the BCC.
I forgot to mention Essential Quality in the list of champion 2-year-old reaching the BCC… he was the last one and not Uncle Mo… it is the drawbacks of writing peripheral bit on the fly.
How could I have forgotten the son of Tapit after being his numero uno fan.
I remember I brought Essential Quality’s debut to the attention of Bill Dawson just minutes after his super impressive performance. I wrote that the grit and powerful closing kick he showed in that 6 furlongs after being stopped in mid homestretch made him very special early Derby hopeful.
In this very forum as well I defended Essential Quality against the comments about him not improving (by speed figures) going to the Derby. I even dared to predict that he would be named Champion 3-year-old despite not winning the Derby.
Anyway, thanks for the observation. I believe it is important to be thorough while putting figures out there as many fans like to read these forums to also get some stats and trivia answers.
I’ve been tasked with marking quite a few papers the past couple of weeks so obvious errors stick out like a sore thumb. Ha ha
Left alone on the lead–Arthur’s Ride easily won highly rated ten furlongs, at Saratoga–followed by easily winning The Whitney, same thing lone speed….In The Classic…Could he be lone speed, after a half mile?…
Matthew, Arthur’s Ride is my ‘puzzle’ horse. Not sure whether Mott gave him enough time for the Jockey Club Gold Cup or not. I don’t consider Highland Falls anything out of the box. Just lucky to have won the Jockey Club Gold Cup.
Prat noticed Arthur was tough on a lonely lead, and he sent his horse up to him… great ride by a great rider, the guy has won a ton of graded stakes this year, but at Del Mar I’m guessing Prat rides Sierra Leone, so. . Perhaps nobody goes after Arthur’s? I’m thinking Mott and Mandella…..
Matthew, don’t be surprised to see City of Troy next to the lead or on the lead IF he breaks well. Coolmore don’t want City of Troy being splattered in the face with sand on his first attempt on dirt.
Mind you, they won’t want a battle upfront if Arthur’s Ride kicks it in early. I think Arthur’s Ride needs more rest than what he had before the Jockey Club Gold Cup. Mott will have a much fresher horse for the Breeders’ Cup Classic.
David, keep an eye on an HAP colt named Tremendously who debuted at Keeneland yesterday for Brian Lynch
He is an absolutely massive colt – maybe 17h (or close) and still growing- with a massive stride. He broke terribly and lost several lengths; for much of the race he was 16 or so lengths behind. He made a long, huge and sustained run for 3F, and galloped out extremely well. He has tons of stamina, and I think based on his works, some speed – but with those long legs, he may never be great out of the gate
TVG spent quite a bit of time on him – he’s stunning, and he’ll run as far as they write races
Betsy, I watched the race and was disappointed with the start for Tremendously. In fact, I was poised to send a post to you – “Did you see…” but thought against it.
Keeneland was so speed bias that unless you had the lead the race was basically over most of the time so forget that race. Distance will be his future for sure.
Tremendously’s size is a slight concern for me but at 300,000 I doubt the’ll geld him.
Oh me too, David – because I don’t think he’s a dead closer at all …but it took him out of the race
My first reaction was, are you kidding me? LOL HAPs have had so many bad breaks – this one was brutal. I’ll never again say before a race “just let him/her break well”, lol
That said, this was really just a prep race -Brian Lynch said he’s a two turn horse, and clearly he wasn’t being rushed off his feet or pushed hard near the end.
TVG was all over this colt, lol – they couldn’t believe how big he was, and he’s still growing, lol
Yeah, I’d heard that Keeneland had a speed bias in the days before – wasn’t sure if it was still true on Sunday. That makes his race even more impressive-sneaky good
I hadn’t even thought of gelding him – I hope he doesn’t get that big, lol. I think if he were an aggressive colt, they might have considered it – but he seems pretty kind, so yeah – can’t see gelding him at all
In answer to the question about Del Mar’s dirt surface—I thought that around two turns it is a tiring surface, because the fields spread out noticeably thru the stretch. ..and times get considerably slower, around two turns …I’m not sure the Bobby Frankel saying applies today, as much as when he said it 30 years ago, about 10 furlongs at Del Mar being 9 furlongs everywhere else, they have run two Breeders Cups at Del Mar, Japan has done quite well, the Classic has been won by the best horse both times, and eastern based horses have done quite well….the turf course at one mile/14 horses can be problematic …maybe 3 or 4 good trips….and 7 or 8 brutal trips…..last year at Santa Anita the #14 won the Mile…..this year The Classic looks good, Fierceness is the deserving horse to beat, odd this year that there aren’t many three year olds that have faced older horses, the other race that excites me is the final race, The Sprint….where favoritism will likely pay over $10….
I am assuming Matthew W is answering Davids last question in Steve’s previous article about Del Mar’s racing surface and how it will play. I am not sure what we can expect when it is run this year. Del Mar fall meet opens Thursday Oct 31st so we will only have 1 day of racing before Friday & Saturday 2 day BC Festival. Will it favor frontrunners like this past summer’s meet hard to say. I will agree with Matthew that the Bobby Frankel 10 furlong equals 9 furlongs doesn’t apply there anymore to Del Mar. I know when Del Mar and Santa Anita abandoned the synthetic surface they both put down the same surface called El Segundo sand but that was back around 2015 and am not how much modifications they done to it but I am sure in 2019 Santa Anita did a lot to their surface with all those fatalities that year. My best guess it will be a “Dull” fast surface with some horses liking it and some not at all.
I was at the first BC at Del Mar in 2017 and there were several upsets in the early races that day and early speed not holding up well but in the Classic it basically was a 2 horse race between Gun Runner and Collected ( Baffert horse with Martin Garcia on him…. hmm) with Gun Runner wiring the field and Collected running right next to him the whole race except at the very end when Gun Runner pulled away. That was also Arrogates ( I don’t think he liked DM racing surface ) last race and he never got into the race. Go figure early speed dying most of the day on dirt except for the Classic.
My advice for anyone is to watch closely the results for Thursday races and see what the times are for those races and look for a track bias. Watch to see if it transfers over to Fridays races. Then good luck on Saturday. I think there will be 4 early races before the BC starts. it may give some clue on how the surface plays for that day.
One other thing I remember about Del Mar racing surface especially when it was Synthetic was that the surface they horses trained on in the morning (slower) was “not” the same in the afternoon (faster) when they ran in the afternoon. Whether that still holds true with today’s surface I don’t know. Ocean air ??? Perhaps
Gosh, I can’t believe it has been 7 years since Gun Runner won the BC Classic and Steve Asmussen running by me screaming and yelling like a mad man with his long hair back then going to the Winner’s Circle after he won… I was so happy for him !!!
Steve once again a Great Column this week!!!! Always look forward to it.
Oh one other thing some might find helpful is usually the week preceding the BC they have LIVE on YOUTUBE Breakfast at the Breeders Cup and it usually starts at 6am PST. Interview with trainers and shows horse jogging on the track and other horse incidentals. Just another thing to scramble your mind before the races.
Thanks, Downthestretch. They are fun shows and informative.
Downthestretch, thank you. I was answering Mathew before read your post. Fantastic appraisal. You’re ‘the man’ as well. Ha ha
The Ocean mist/moisture used to have an impact on the surface during the warmer months but I’m not so sure during November but as you say watch the races previously.
The Gun Runner comments saved me from rewatching the race again. Bonus, thanks again.
Did you attempt to trip him? He’s a charmer.
Well Gun Runner was Horse of the Year, Collected had won the Pacific Classic so they did figure….I did agree, when Frankel said that, about Del Mar, I was present when Ancient Title ran that race… age seven he took off early and held a seven length lead all the way, ‘Title was a top horse but ten furlongs was not his favorite distance!
Thanks Matthew, the ‘tiring surface’ is the answer I was wondering about I.e. El Segundo sand base. So they will have to be fit for a true 10f race.
With the grass (turf) track, when would you say the post position defeats the horse before they even start? I’ve seen so many good horses loose any chance on the first bend because of a wide draw.
Is the turf really good? On the internet, all turf surfaces look good no matter what. Sorry, about all the questions but you are ‘the man’ with the clear eyes. Thanks, Matthew.
It’s on the coast, so it’s pretty good but it’s on the coast—not great but truly a kicker’s course, a good kicker can usually get there, at Del Mar..
Thanks Matthew, much appreciated. Del Mar is a track I’ve never been to.
I love training up and back, to Del Mar…..it’s “just a track”, though ….Santa Anita is an Art Deco masterpiece, and the best part is, they put those mountains in, as a backdrop, whomever came up with that idea, was a genius!..
Hollywood, Matthew, D. W. Griffith. lol Bing Crosby et al might have had the vision for Del Mar but Griffith moved mountains. Ha ha
Excellent job, Steve, of presenting a report of what these BC entrants were up to last year at this time. As Derek has said earlier, you give us fodder for thought, and that is a testament to your exceptional writing skills.
Steve, you noted the length of the stretch at Del Mar being 900 feet. This leads me to believe that a horse with the best chance to win the Classic must be within a couple lengths of the lead at the top of the stretch. It would seem that off the pace runners would be up against it with a short stretch? Do you concur?
Thank you Dewey. The short stretch has to favor speed or being close to the lead. I thinnk Sierra Leone is sitting on a big race, but Del Mar worries me. However you never know how a race scenario will shape up.
In his wins….Sierra is fairly close at top of the stretch….but against the best he will need more than a :48 half. ..he should get it!
It’s a strange bunch indeed. I think Forever Young or City of Troy could win it. Imagine the hubbub if a Justify colt wins the Classic.
And is it just my imagination, or are more and more foreign-bred horses (and not just the Godolphin machine) winning more and more races in the US ( and not just turf)? Every time I read the results of a big weekend, I notice that many stakes are won by a horse bred in Ireland, Great Britain, even France, plus the usual Argentines.
Steve, a numbers crunch of that would be most interesting!
I believe it was Bobby Frankel who said 1 1/4 miles at Del Mar, Plays more like 1 1/8
Steve, excellent job as always. You’ve given us all the reasons why any one of these horses could win or not win, based on their respective histories. As we get closer to the Cup and know more about the final makeup of the field, I’d like to hear your thoughts on how you think the race will unfold.
Will it set up for a steal on the front end, or a horse closing from the clouds like Arcangue? Or perhaps we’ll be treated to an epic three- or four-horse finish, like the one in the 1984 Classic?
Thanks Steve, Like always you get us thinking, for me which is good at 69 years old because most of my friends can’t remember yesterday. A friend of mine has a microshare in Seize the Grey and seems like they’re leaning to the mile. I think it’s a shame he’ll not run at 4 and develop more into his ultimate potential. We should all be happy the way this field is shaping up. Staying with Forever Young and not for the fact that the Sport of Kings has kept me young at heart! I hope my father realizes what he did when he made watch Northern Dancer’s Derby! It changed my life for the better!
Steve, did you tip Arcangues to win the Breeders Cup Classic in 1993? Moreover, can you remember why? I could be wrong but my memory is telling me you did give Arcangues a decent chance at 133 – 1 no less.
Aidan O’Brien keeps mentioning that City of Troy “wants to go forward” so it wouldn’t surprise me if Ryan Moore tries to send him. Whether City of Troy is fast enough out of the gate is another matter, of course. Nevertheless, the Coolmore lads wouldn’t have given up the chance of winning another Arc with City of Troy if they didn’t think City of Troy has a serious chance of taking the Breeders’ Cup Classic.
Speaking of Coolmore, they must be over the moon with the success of Tiz the Law on both turf and dirt. Tiz the Law is the leading sire of 2 year olds and subsequently, the leading Freshman sire as well. Moreover, Tiz the Law has the most black type winners while also having the lowest number of named foals. You would expect the number of mares bred next year to increase dramatically.
Thanks again, Steve. Your input makes the Breeders’ Cup races more fascinating especially during the build up as the horses descend on Del Mar over the next few weeks.
Hi Davids,
It will truly be an International Breeders Cup and Breeders Cup this year. I think it will come down to Forever Young, Fierceness, City of Troy, and Sierra Leone in the Classic.
Thanks for your information about Tiz the Law. How wonderful that he is a leading first year sire. His dam sire is Tiznow and Tiznow is a descendant of Man ‘O War. Tiz the Law is continuing the line and legacy of the great Man ‘O War.
It’s interesting that one of few farms who advertise that one of their horses is a wonderful dam sire is Claiborne; they had one of the illustrious dam sires in history. The farm where Big Brown stood did not advertise him as a good dam sire; his daughter Puca produced two Classic winner. Maybe his fertility was waning.
Hi Terri, that is so true about Claiborne they are one of the rare large stud farms that still have an ‘ol’fashined’ approach to breeding. Their stallions aren’t overstretched either. Blame is a wonderful broodmare sire.
With Tiz the Law’s early success, particularly turf, I’m hoping Coolmore will breed some of their top line broodmare’s to him in the hope that Tiz the Law’s will have progeny represented in Europe. It’s been a long time since a Nasrullah line sire was prominent in Europe. Mill Reef and his sons are long gone now.
As for the Breeders’ Cup Classic, I tend to agree with your selections with Arthur’s Ride and Tapit Trice as wildcards. If City of Troy skims over the dirt he’ll be extremely hard to beat with Forever Young his main danger. Time is getting closer.
Thanks Davids. Thankfully, Blame was bred and is breeding at Claiborne Farm. They know the value of a good broodmare sire.
Incidentally, Arthur’s Ride does not look like his broodmare sire, Point Given. Although he resembles his sire, Tapit, his behavior and talent are all Point Given.
Yes Terri, Arthur’s Ride does have that playful disposition that Point Given. Progeny of Blame sometimes pop up in European races, which is reassuring as Blame’s pedigree is packed full of influential broodmares and sires
Thanks for remembring that, David. Yes I did and its a long story. You actually may have given me my topic for next week with all the foreign influence. Excluding breakdowns that still is the worst race of my caareer and the one race I still refuse to watch. But after 30 years I think I can have some fun with it.
Steve, I was sure it was you who had picked Arcangues, certain things resonate. I was so impressed then as I still am now. I know exactly what you mean about breakdowns, I simply block them from memory. The trauma is too much.
It’s so enjoyable reading everyone’s opinions on who is going to win in the Breeders’ Cup. Especially with the two years.
Looking forward to your next column already.
Hey Steve
Great article on the BC Classic, I like Sierra Leone to finally put it all together, (I’m a sucker for deep closers).
Hopefully, in the coming weeks, you’ll share your thoughts on the BC Juvenile.
This year’s crop of 2yr. old colts appear to be above average, IMO.
The following are my top 10, in preferential order.
Jonathan’s Way
Chancer McPatrick
East Avenue
Gaming
Citizen Bull
Showcase
Getaway Car
Ferocious
Owen Almighty
Brave Mission (GB) could be dangerous if the connections decide to ship in for the Juv.
Hi Bill Dawson,
Zenyatta spoiled us for being the most consistent deep closer in recent history. She could care less if they were taking a nap on the front end. The race fell apart simply because she was in it–LOL.
Sierra Leone is doing better as far as not interfering with other horses. Fierceness is more consistent, Forever Young has only one defeat in the Kentucky Derby, and we will all see how City of Troy takes to the dirt. It reminds me of Animal Kingdom, who won the Derby but was primarily a turf horse.
Hi Terri
Yes indeed, this year’s BC Classic could be the most competitive in recent years.
It could be the best betting race on Saturday’s BC card.
Good luck.
I just fear that 900 foot stretch for him. But he is ready to win.
You’re absolutely right Steve, Del Mar’s stretch is relatively short versus other tracks around the country. Possibly, Sierra Leone’s rider will him closer to the pace in the BC Classic.
Edit, Sierra Leone’s rider will have him closer to the pace in the BC Classic.
Bill,
I would also add McKinzie Street to your list. He was not at his best last Saturday.
Hey Downthestretch
If I had posted my “Top Dozen”, (instead of just ten), I would definitely include McKinzie Street. In addition, I would add Mo Plex as well.
Hi Bill
I see East Avenue who was not in your initial list, not only made it to your 2nd list but is now ranked in your top 5.
I am a bit puzzled that Chancer McPatrick is ranked ahead of East Avenue given the available cold facts. Obviously, you are entitled to your opinion and that must be respected. But the cold facts below provide a legitimate reason to challenge the ranking of the Chad Brown colt ahead of the Brandon Walsh.
Chancer McPatrick defeated Ferocious by a 1/2L in the Hopeful. Both colts were fully extended in the race.
Ferocious was handily defeated by 5 1/2L by a throttled down Eat Avenue in the Futurity on Saturday.
Chancer MacPatrick recorded a workman like win in the Champagne whilst under strong urging and repeated reminders with the crop
East Avenue took control of the Futurity early and asserted his superiority whilst being eased close to the line.
The Champagne at both Belmont and the Big A is contest around 1Turn. The Mile in the Fatuity involves 2Turns. The final time for the Champagne was 1:36.51 whilst the mile split in the Futurity was 1:3.57 with East Avenue under a hand ride.
From a tactical speed perspective, Est Avenue has the advantage. His two wins have been on the lead. Chander McPatrick is a closer with not the best stride mechanics. He will always be venerable to a classy high cruiser with the ability to accelerate out of its cruising speed and remain resolute to the line.
From a pedigree perspective. East Avenue’ dam sire Ghostzapper was extremely fast and particularly tenacious of the lead. He still holds the Stakes Record for the BCC. The colt seems to have inherited his dam sire’s speed. His sire Medaglia D Oro had his share of tactical speed. East Avenue could therefore be a total package of tops class speed and stamina.
You are obviously privy to the above cold facts. Sometimes a gut feeling superseded cold facts, but it doesn’t make them less pertinent.
In which objectively assessed category does Chancer MacPatrick have the advantage over East Avenue?
Hey Counter Point
I always welcome your opinion, based on the “cold facts” and your points are well taken. Chancer McPatrick and East Avenue have impressive pedigrees, top and bottom. With respect to their sires, I would give the nod to McKinzie over Medaglia D’Oro. On the dam side, with respect to their broodmare sires, I would rank Bernardini above Ghostzapper.
East Avenue’s win in the Futurity was unquestionably the most impressive performance of the three 2yr. old G1 races this past Saturday. However, I just have a gut feeling about Chancer McPatrick, and his impressive turn of foot that he has demonstrated in three career wins.
No doubt they will face each other in the BC Juvenile which should determine which of the two is best. Stay tuned.
Good luck, Counter Point.
Hey Counter Point,
The year was 2017 and I remember another Medaglia d’Oro colt coming into the Breeders Cup Juvenile undefeated and he looked unbeatable. He won his previous race by 7 widening lengths. Just so happens the 2017 BC Juvenile was at Del Mar and I was there to witness it. I was so high on this horse I told my brother who was with me that day that not not only is he going win but I just don’t know by how many widening lengths. Well he unfortunately for me did not win but came in 3rd and it wasn’t close. The horse Bolt d’Oro.
Now East Avenue looked nice in the Futurity and i along most people here feel he will most likely go for the lead in the BCJV but do you think that Mr BB is going to let him go out there by himself like he was able to do in the Futurity? Mr BB is not only going have one but possibly 2 of his horses hounding him around the track. Now if that does happen and East Avenue still wins the BCJV then we may have the makings of a superhorse !!! But I think I will take my chances with Chancer MacPatrick , McKinzie Street or Gaming. JMHO
BTW … Chancer MacPatrick’s and Citizen Bull’s races were pretty impressive too !!!
That’s a good list, Bill. I usually work backwards in choosing my top two-year-olds. I start with a Top Zero and gradually add horses as they impress me. Last year Fierceness impressed me with his first race, and after the Remsen I added both Dornoch and Sierra Leone. During the winter I added Timberlake and Stronghold and, if you want to count him, Nysos. So I had a Top Five or maybe Six.
So far this year I would list Mentee (who I know is not going in the Juvenile but he’s still a favorite of mine), Ferocious (whom I’m not ready to give up on yet), Owen Almighty (he may be partly a sentimental choice because I had an uncle named Owen but I’m not ready to give up on him, either), and Chancer McPatrick (I wasn’t sure about him but the Champagne convinced me). As for the others, I’ve seen some very good performances, but I want to see more before I add them to my list. So I have a Top Four right now and we’ll see where we go from there. Seven months is a long time.
Thanks for the reply, Jiffy
From my perspective, starting at “zero” is pretty much what we all do in looking for 2yr. old colts that look impressive early on.
In addition to the colts that have listed in my top 10, the following are on my watch list moving forward.
Mitty’s Griddy (Barry Butzow homebred)
Sovereignty (Godolphin homebred)
Praetor
Macho Music
Kraken
Blake James
Bullard (Three Chimnney’s Farm homebred)
Kalea Bay
Obviously, the colts that I have added must pass their class test in a stakes race somewhere down the road.
On a side note, I’m looking forward to game 3 of the Division playoffs between my San Diego Padres vs the LA Dodgers. After years of playing backseat to the Dodgers, the Padres are now on even terms with their archrival.
Go Padres.