Woodward “Post” Script
Because we have begun a new series trying to find early Kentucky Derby sleepers, why not try to find Breeders’ Cup sleepers who will be huge odds at Del Mar on November 5th and 6th. We’ll start with a horse I’m not even sure will run. But let’s make a case for him anyway. ~ Steve Haskin
Woodward “Post” Script
By Steve Haskin
Once upon a time, not very long ago, two months to be exact, the Breeders’ Cup Classic looked as if it was going to be another unchallenged scamper to the lead for Knicks Go and a field of helpless opponents futilely chasing him. After all, who would want to try to match strides with this front-running powerhouse and sacrifice their own chances? When a horse runs fast and does it as effortlessly as Knicks Go does, you are fighting a losing battle trying to look him in the eye early.
Knicks Go’s illustrious stablemate, the do-it-all Essential Quality possesses excellent tactical speed and can be placed anywhere on the track, but trainer Brad Cox has no desire to see the two of them hook up early. So what could prevent the Classic from being another uneventful front-running victory by this year’s Whitney and Pegasus World Cup winner who has won his last seven two-turn races?
Well, things are not what they seemed two weeks ago, despite Knicks Go’s effortless victory in Saturday’s Lukas Classic against a field of overmatched opponents. The whole complexion of the Breeders’ Cup Classic began to change when the fast, game, and classy Hot Rod Charlie won the Pennsylvania Derby wire-to-wire in impressive fashion. Then this past weekend the rejuvenated Art Collector wired the Woodward Stakes field for his third consecutive stakes victory and Kentucky Derby winner Medina Spirit deviated from his gutsy, dramatic victories by crushing older horses on the front end in the Awesome Again Stakes, winning by five lengths. Just like that, the Classic was transformed from a solo act into a hotly contested affair, with four top-class horses whose best races have been on the lead. Two of those horses – Knicks Go and Art Collector – have never been a mile and a quarter.
Now we see the Classic with a contentious pace, with proven distance horses Essential Quality and the vastly improved Max Player tracking the leaders, along with the hard-hitting Maxfield, who needs to find the closing punch he had earlier in his career against less talented opponents.
So if that is the way the Classic is going to be run, what about a deep closer to take advantage of the prospective battle that will be waged up front?
Well, there is one, who will be a huge price and that is Dr Post, who finished a non-threatening third in the Woodward Stakes. But there is a catch. Not even his connections are convinced he belongs in the Classic, and trainer Todd Pletcher said on Sunday, “We’re not committed yet. We’ll probably wait a few weeks to decide.”
If they decide not to run then this column was for naught. But I’ll take a shot and try to make a case for him not only belonging in the field, but running a big race.
Let’s start with the Woodward and work backwards. On the surface this seems to be a decent, but uninspiring performance, even though he was beaten only 2 ½ lengths, and I stress the word “only.”
Having watched races at Belmont Park for over 50 years, I have seen so many come-from-behind horses go into that long sweeping turn four- or five-wide, and appear to make a threatening move only to fall apart in the stretch. You simply cannot go that wide into what I call the turn of no return and sustain your run all the way to the wire, unless you’re the immortal Forego, a giant of a horse with a gargantuan stride.
Dr Post not only went into the turn four-wide, made a threatening move, and was five-wide turning for home, he never changed leads, which can happen when you take that turn wide. Even Forego didn’t change leads at Belmont. And on top of that, Dr Post was herded in the final furlong by Maxfield. There was no way Dr Post was going to win, especially going a mile and an eighth, going that wide on that turn and staying on his left lead.
But he still was running strong in the final furlong following a swift :23 4/5 quarter and earned a 104 Beyer speed figure while running 27 feet farther than the winner, which pretty much makes up the 2 ½ lengths he was beaten.
Now let’s go two races back to the Pacific Classic. Another thing I have noticed over the years is the Eastern shippers have not had success running at Del Mar. Even Cigar’s 16-race winning streak ended in the Pacific Classic. Yes, Eastern shippers did win Breeders’ Cup races at Del Mar, but that was because they were beating mostly other shippers.
Dr Post is a rare Eastern shipper who has already run at Del Mar, finishing third in the Pacific Classic, in which he got all the kinks out and made the necessary adjustments during the race. Now he is familiar with the track and any quirks it may present to first-time invaders.
In the Pacific Classic, he was was racing well off the pace and when Joel Rosario asked him for his run he went backwards so abruptly it even caught race caller Trevor Denman by surprise. “Dr Post is being ridden and Dr Post is not responding. Dr Post dropping back to last!”
But in a flash he suddenly took off way out in the middle of the track and began picking up horses. At the top of the stretch he was fanned 8-to-9 wide. Denman bellowed, “Dr Post is starting to wind up, but he’s given himself a tall order.” Still far back in seventh at the eighth pole he flew by four horses in a matter of seconds and was able to finish third, as Denman called, “Dr Post got going far far too late.” Despite being beaten 5 ¾ length he still ran a solid “1/2” on Thoro-Graph. With this race under his belt, there is no reason why he shouldn’t be more effective and more polished over the Del Mar track.
Finally we go back three races to the mile and an eighth Monmouth Cup, in which he rallied six-wide turning for home and drew off to a 1 ¼-length victory in 1:47 2/5, which was three-fifths of a second off Spend A Buck’s 36-year-old track record. Yes, Hot Rod Charlie ran the same time finishing first in the Haskell Invitational (actually 15 one-hundredths of a second faster), but Dr Post lost so much ground he was given a faster Thoro-Graph figure. In fact, Dr Post has run two negative Thoro-Graph figures (both negative-1 ½) in his last four starts prior to the Woodward, as well as the “1/2” in the Pacific Classic. It is expected he will get another negative number in the Woodward.
I am not implying that Dr Post is as talented as Knicks Go, Essential Quality, Hot Rod Charlie, Art Collector and Medina Spirit, or even Maxfield and Max Player. He may not even be better than this own stablemate Happy Saver. But that doesn’t mean he is not capable of taking advantage of a contentious pace and closing strong, having already run a good race at Del Mar going a mile and a quarter, something the other shippers cannot claim. And most important, he likely will be no better than eighth or ninth choice.
So there you have a Breeders’ Cup Classic sleeper. Now, if they decide not to send him then I refer you to the closing line of the old Allan Sherman song from the ‘60s, “Muddah, Faddah kindly disregard this letter.”
Photos courtesy of Associated Press/Seth Wenig, Ryan Thompson/Coglianese Photos, and Equi-photo
Thanks Bill!
Soup and Sandwich is listed as a probable for the Perryville Stakes, at Keeneland, on 10-23.
Hi Steve, Love the Sleeper columns, VERY informative as always. Keep it up! Any clue when my old pal Soup and Sandwich will race again? I see several works. Thanks, JB
Thanks John, geez i forgot all about him. I’ll see what I can find out
Pro “know it all” vet is fond of referring to Barry Irwin as a “loon”- more than once. Wondering how many times pro ever prevailed in Kentucky Derby? Sure! lol
Do you think i’m the only one who thinks this?……you don’t know huh?…….i know many people that say the same………point is…..he is the hay water oats guy…..but didnt know about LASIX not masking anything…..that was 25 years ago………..to not know that, is ridiculous….
He constantly talks about cheating with no facts……
You must think Colburn…….is a genius too?……he won the Derby……
You aren’t even in their area code,you have nothing going, other than beating on your chest daily declaring your brilliance. I see “bad signs” for you = insecurity!!!! Btw, had dinner last yr. with Steve, Carolyn. You have nothing on him. lmao
Mom says “hi”……..
Insecure little “man”.
Tomorrow in the blue space we have a first == links to two columns, both featuring the back stories of four stallions who fans attending the Secretariat Festival will visit on Saturday and Sunday. They are Catholic Boy and Vino Rosso (Saturday) and Curlin and Medaglia d’Oro (Sunday). I will also write about Street Sense as well in the Curlin story. On Tuesday the two stories will appear in the white space.
I have decided to do the Rattle N Roll column anyway next week going back to when I first saw him at Saratoga and then continue with the “Sleeper” series as it was originally intended. We wont mess up the timing anymore like we did with Rattle N Roll. I have a few in the bank already from this past weekend.
Hooray! And many thanks, Steve.
Good news!
An after the fact is preceded by a before the fact. One becomes a cold fact.
Watched the replay of the Breeders’ Futurity a couple of times. Rattle made his big move on the turn pretty much all on his own. The eyes of Haskin were off the charts again! Several contenders had very little in the way of excuses and likely are not ones to be followed on the Derby trail: Stellar Tap, Kevin’s Folly, Great Escape, Don’t Wait Up. Was the outside post to blame for Classic Causeway’s 4 3/4 length loss? Probably not, but he deserves another chance. Runners to keep an eye on are Double Thunder, American Sanctuary, and Costa Terra. Yet will any of those horses become the type of runner that wins the Kentucky Derby on the front or stalking closely (as Jack Christopher and Corniche are now!).
Jack Christopher galloping action suggest he will find 10F extremely challenging. As for Corniche, the runner-up AP is likely to get the better of him at the KD distance.
It’s early days yet and those that have won the major stakes are decent. But I am of the opinion a few from the under the radar group will emerge next spring. Our burden is to determine who it it’s likely to be for the sucker future wagers.
contrarian…..
Thanks Eddie. I totally agree with you on American Sanctuary. Running last of 13 early I loved his big middle move, but had nowhere to go. Had to abruptly swing out and finished up strongly. I’ll be watching him. I do think the post hurt Classic Causeway. He really had to run hard after breaking to the outside to clear the field. I’ll give him a pass. BTW go watch the gutsy performance of Classic Moment in the 5th race. See how many horses he had to battle with. Opening quarter in :21 4/5, but watch him fight to the end. By Classic Empire Dam is a half-sister to Into Mischief and Beholder. and the horse that won, Strava looks like a good one.
American Sanctuary would be a great story, if he continues to progress, with a $47k purchase price, a young trainer, and female rider. Classic Moment was impressive, especially considering it was his debut. And Strava did something in mid-stretch that you don’t often see first timers do.
Steve, EddieF:
Strava really impressed me, too. Looked like the jockey almost cost him the race, moving him around trying to find a way through. But he bulled ahead and won anyway, and in a 5 1/2 furlong sprint. Will be interested to see how the figures come back, although lately Beyer figs haven’t seemed to match visual performance very well. Just saw Jack Christopher’s Beyer for the Champagne was jumped 9 points to 102 (!)
Steve, any enlightenment on JC’s Thoro-Graph fig for that race?
Yes, he got a 4 1/2 which is excellent
BSFs are often unreliable — not only for the frequent “adjustments.” Excessively high and low figures can leave you scratching your head, and future performances usually confirm the inaccuracies. If they weren’t in the DRF, I doubt that many horseplayers would seek them out. But even the best speed figure is merely one of many handicapping tools.
We’re on the same page with all three
I bet American Sanctuary…they’d not expect to he 13th around the first bend, he waspinched back by the#8, I think…..He did run well for 4th.
The declaration that the Derby Sleeper Series is done is grossly premature. Identifying Derby sleepers continues until the race is run.
With the above stated I am licking my wounds after going all in on a Bill Mott trained colt in the last race at Keeneland on Saturday. I was fully aware of the risk of going all in on a colt the secured speed figures of 55 & 58 whilst finishing 6th and 8th in its two career starts. But I am a gambling man.
Gilded Age is by Medaglia D’ Oro out of a Bernardini mare. He was purchase for $600,00. Normally I stay away from expensive, well bred youngsters as they rarely live up to expectation. They just tick too many boxes and amazingly too often, not the talent box.
I am a big fan of Bill Mott and assumed that if he deemed wise to bring back a 2YO, 15 days after it finished 8th over 8 1/2F. He must have been confident it would run big. But the colt was only able to manage 5th. A third place finished would have reduced by losses as he was wagered across the board @16/1.
Why highlight a colt that is nowhere near radar?
Well, in addition to trying to analyzing Mott’s decision. I also took note of winners of the two MSW races in which Gilded Age finished 6th & 8th. Major General was the winner of the first. He was a next out winner of Iroquois. Rattle N Roll was the winner of the second. He was a next out winner of the Breeders Futurity. The colt has kept good company.
But there is a more important reason for hifhlighting Gilded Age. His still very green and appears to be one that will improve with racing. From post 11 he broke outwards and surrendered a lot of lengths. Approaching the first turn from 7W position. He bumped and pushed even wider. He improved his position on the back stretch but was aging caught
6W on the final turn. He had a strong gallop down whilst logging, but was never goin to get into contention with ground loss on both turns. To be only beaten 71/2L with such a trip is very encouraging
He is a physically imposing colt with a fluent stride. He gives every impression that come spring, he will be ready to challenge the top dogs of the division. Some start out with less than stellar records. Who is Real Quiet?
Yes……..wow……i liked both horses 1,2…….in that 2 yr old race…..steve does have a good eye……ive liked many horses he has mentioned…..havent looked at this 3rd one yet
No need for this blog to be Twitter. We have your back, Steve. Keep the hits coming!
Wha? Last two performances of Steve’s Sleepers CONFIRMS that the column should continue. I’m all over Zandon although I didn’t even see him run. He may win the Kentucky Derby! Kudos to you, Steve!
He was going to be my third sleeper. I’ve already spoken to several people about him. But the timing of the columns is just too unpredictable. They have to be done soon after they race and sometimes, like this time, that doesnt work out, but I will be mentioning my sleepers in the comments here and on Facebook and then in Knocking on the Door once the rankings begin.
Congrats Steve ! Rattle N Roll confirmed your erudite assessment … !
Well, we sure blew that. I’m sitting here with the column on him already written for the past 2 weeks and nothing to do with it except do it as an after the fact column. But that seals it. The Derby Sleeper series is done.
Steve, why couldn’t you have posted the column before today?
At least we got the learning …
Kentucky Derby sleeper alert — ZANDON.
Reminded Essential Quality in the final maneuver … the champ won going away and a bit easier but Zandon’s initial Speed Ratings are similar in his debut.
Chad Brown looks loaded with dirt young prospects this year…!
So the very early morning line for the Classic is this: Knicks Go (5-2), Essential Quality (3-1), Hot Rod Charlie (5-1), Medina Spirit (6-1), Art Collector (10-1), Max Player (10-1), Maxfield (12-1), Tripoli (15-1), Dr Post (20-1), Happy Saver (20-1), Idol (30-1) and Stilleto Boy (30-1).
If y’all had to make a single win bet now, which horse would it be? I’m thinking the 5-1 price on Hot Rod Charlie is fair and reasonable.
At 1 1/4 miles I’ll take Max Player at 10-1, but have to also bet my sleeper Dr. Post at 20-1.
Of course! 🙂
I know it’s taking a gamble but the cold facts bring into question you choice.
Swiss Sky Diver’s 10L defeat of Art Collector in the Preakness suggested that all was not right with the Bernadini colt. Despite his under whelming performance in the Preakness, he still finished 1 1/4L ahead of Max Player. AC was 2/1 and Max P was 11/1. Their odds suggested the betting public viewed AC as the better of the two.
Have their respective performances since the Preakness indicated that Max Player has matured into a better 4YO than AC? Well, let’s see what the cold fact reflect:
Max Player’s final 3YO start was in the Preakness. He has made 4 starts as 4YO resulting in two very bad losses and two workmanlike wins. The assigned Equibase figures for his wins were 113 & 113
Art Collector final 3YO start was in the BC Dirt Mile. He has made 4 starts as 4YO resulting in one very bad losses and three impressive wins. The assigned Equibase figures for his wins were 110, 115 & 120
Purely from the speed figures perspective, AC has proven to be the faster of the two. From a mechanics perspective, AC is the more fluent galloper and covers ground more efficiently. To give an idea of how much faster AC is of the two. His 8F split in for the 3Turn mile of the Charles Town Classic was 1:36.56. Max Player’s split for the 2Turn mile of JCGC was 1:37.77. Both surfaces listed as fast..
AC’s sire Bernadsini was the post time favorite in his BCC effort in which he finished 2nd. Max Player’s sire Honor Code was no part of Bernardini. AC’s dam sire Distorted Humor is associated with serious BCC history. He sired BCC winner Drosselmeyer and was dam sire of BCC winner Arrogate. From a pedigree perspective AC also has the edge. I know pedigree doesn’t matter. However, when a horse with such a pedigree is averaging 1:48.11 for its three 2Turn 9F races, it should be taken lightly over 10F.
Finally! How will Max Player finish ahead of Art Collector? Despite being forwardly placed in his recent starts. Max Player doesnt posses his cruising speed of AC. He doesn’t cove ground as efficiently ether. He was unable to finish ahead of a regressing Art Collector in the Preakness. What’s the prospect of Max P finishing ahead of AC in his present form?
Am I guilty of over analysis? Probably! But when decisions are reached after the analysis of cold facts. No regret is necessary regarding results. It’s not the better of two opponents that always emerge the winner.
I would take Maxfield and Max Player as the value bets… and do not forget this blog is about Dr. Post.. at 20 to 1 he is a good proposition as well…
Hey Eddie, this is from the director of marketing at Woodford Thoroughbreds, who bred and consigned King Curlin
Hi Steve,
Nothing was wrong with this horse other than it’s a fickle sale market and even more so when you get to the two-year-old sales.
We own the dam and hope the buyers got the deal of the year!
Best,
Shannon Castagnola
Many thanks, Steve, for reaching out to Woodford. “Fickle” is an understatement. Did you happen to see King Curlin’s turf race and, if you did, what did you think about his effort?
It’s hard to tell at Kentucky downs where horses are all over the track. It’s like running on a hunt course. He’s very green and I dont like his rider. He was too erect in the saddle, looked more like an amateur rider and he never seemed in sync with the horse. The horse seems to have ability, but needs to work on his lead changes nd keep a straight course. I really dont think he’s a turf horse, he never looked comfortable and I think he will improve on the dirt. Whether hes ready for a race like this I dont know, but if he runs decently he should move forward off it.
Thanks for the expert observations, Steve. If you think that KC isn’t a turf horse and he still ran as he did, there’s no reason to think that he won’t take to dirt based on his pedigree. My major bet in the Futurity is Classic Causeway to win despite the post. A few coins for KC and Costa Terra, too.
you have to go back to his 4th generation to find any turf. Classic Causeway is the fastest horse, depends on how he breaks from the outside. Rattle N Roll doesnt have the speed figures, but I would just like to see him closing.
I’d say he closed well enough! 😉 Were you surprised that CC was 9-5? I was extremely surprised. But it saved me a bet!
They went strictly off speed figs
Thanks a lot for the information … you truly are our “eyes and ears” in the field … a total treat to your followers
Has the 2020, 2YO and 2021 3YO seasons put to rest the suspect bleeding prevention reason, cited for use of the RDM Lasix? Is the era Lasix usage coming to an end?
None of the horses listed below have ever race with Lasix. They represent a small sample of a larger group.
Essential Quality *
Hot Rod Charlie *
Medina Spirit
Midnight Bourbon
Rombauer *
The 3 above with the asterisk, contested the BCJ. They returned as 3YOs to be formidable in the TC series with wins in the Preakness, Belmont and 2nd, 3rd & 4th finishes in the TC series. There have been no reported cases of bleeding involving any of the above.
The obvious question has to be. Why medicate an animal that isn’t suffering from any form of illness? Do we medicate ourselves and/or those under our keep and care in the absence of a situation that doesn’t warrant same?
The administration of vaccines can be viewed a preventative medicating. This is a worldwide practice. It would be stretch to equate the administration of Lasix as preventative medication, given that the practice has not been adopted in other major racing jurisdictions.
COMPARATIVE TIMES FOR THE LAST 2 TC SERIES WITH AND WITHOUT LASIX
2020 – Kentucky Derby (Lasix) – 2:00.61 – Winner presumed to be stamina challenged
2021 – Kentucky Derby (N/Lasix) – 2:01.02 – Winner a badly beaten 2nd in final prep
2020 – Preakness (Lasix) – 1:53.28 – Winner a cringing sort
2021 – Preakness (N/Lasix) – 1:53.62 – Winner considered a cut below the top 5
.
2019 – Belmont (Lasix) – 2:28.30 – Winner a talented filly
2021 – Belmont (N/Lasix) – 2:27.11 – Winner recorded his 6th win from 7 starts
All the surfaces for the above races were labeled fast. No wind reading available.
There isn’t a significant difference in the times. Did Lasix contribute to the times recorded by Authentic and Swiss Skydiver? Probably! But is the electrolytes and mineral depletion worth a few 10ths of a second?
Grindstone won the 1996 KD as one of the 5 entrant in the field of 16 that didn’t run with Lasix. The colt was the last to win the KD without Lasix for the next 25 years. His winning time was 2:01.06. That time was good enough to win 16 of the last 20 (Lasix) KDs contested on a fast surface. He faced 11 opponents on Lasix and the drug didn’t help any to the victory.
Hasn’t the used of Laxis been misguided like so many other things in this country?
The original use of Lasix was to be administered to horses who bled, not to prevent bleeding. New York did not allow Lasix until the 1990s and most of the sports greatest horses raced there without Lasix with no problem. The thought of an entire field of 2 year old first time starters racing on Lasix is absurd and disgusting. Its like giving your young child cough medicine every day to prevent a cough.
I don’t have enough fingers to cross for the success of HISA next year.
Totally disagree. People are so uninformed about lasix. It has been proven to work. The studies have proven this. You would think this would matter, but it doesn’t. Lasix is a very simple drug. It just makes you pee. Truth does not matter to people.
What almost NOBODY understands……is that we STILL DEHYDRATE! Why people don’t understand this is beyond ignorant.
Going on STATS ……ABOUT LASIX is one of the stupidest things ever. All the rule did, is make it harder on horsemen. Now we take away water for a LONG time. This is more HUMANE?….Lasix DID the job quicker and better.
People don’t understand science. STATS? About Lasix?…..when we use other ways now?…….EVERY HORSE IS STILL DEHYDRATED….
Too bad you didnt follow racing in the 50s, 60s,, 70s, aand 80s when the best horses in the country didnt race on Lasix…and didnt bleed. But as you so eloquently said, trainers like Jerkens, Nerud, Whiteley, Burch, Firzsimmons, Hirsch, and Laurin were “beyond ignorant.” As are those who say Lasix masks other drugs
Yes. pro vet, I completely agree. And, Steve, perhaps the best use for lasix (in the racehorse) is as a preventative for the potential initial episode (quite commonplace) of EIPH. So, don’t be so quick to label such practice as “disgusting”, etc. without first better educating yourself on the dynamics of EIPH.
And, yes, those who say Lasix masks other drugs are UNINFORMED.
You know the truth…….the hype was wrong…….everyone just believes the dumb propaganda…..Barry Irwin. the head of the Hay oats and water, posted About how lasix masks…..i called him on it, and he came back to say i was right…….
That says it all….the HEAD of the anti lasix cry, didn’t even know this…….
Again…..i keep saying this……WE DEHYDRATE WITHOUT LASIX……. yes, those old trainers did too……
I even said to Barry…..who i really think is a loon…..”if it was proved to work, you still would be against it, right”…..he said yes……that should tell you alot…….
Basically,people don’t want anything that works great……you can use feed that helps inflammation….or ice, or paste……but no drugs that help ……….what idiotic beliefs……
Why don’t they ban 2 months off?……that helps alot…..
They are sheep……..that listen to the wrong people……testing is amazing today……you can touch a horse, and something can come up….
You believe ALL DRUGS are good!
My horse was a bleeder…..she got claimed……my horse now is a bleeder…..i just claimed him….people don’t know there are other things we use…..and lasix……
Lasix is a simple drug that hurts nothing…..why would it?……THEY WILL NEVER PROVE IT HURTS…….every study says it helps……..
Absurd! Would you want to use lasix if you didn’t require it? Unreal!
You somehow don’t understand EVERYONE would……..but mine do because it is legal……you don’t understand what lasix is……is just takes out water…..thats it………nothing to worry about……no lasix?…..fine…..we use other things……..withholding water has been around 100 years plus……..
Hysterical view……..
I’m more than aware what lasix is used for. Give me a break!
i’m right……….go away troll
What’s wrong with you?
Totally agree!
Ridiculous waste of time
I suppose it is. Not really worth losing sleep over it, since I doubt this column is littered with many, if any, movers and shakers.
You never know.
Prat rode a fantastic race seven today, at Santa Anita—6 fur turf race, did not look like he would get up but he got up in the last jump….then came race eight….first timer filly broke right with the leaders, then fell back….and back….and back–looked like they were being eased—-came widest–still last, inside the final furlong, and then he hit her twice, right handed, and passes them all, wins by 1 1/2….so much for the Santa Anita speed bias—worth watching.
We were poor, our clothes were hand me downs, and we got a 2nd hand record player, and some used records…one of them was an Alan Sherman album—which we grew up listening to—he was GREAT!
My son the Folk Singer was one of the most brilliant and hysterical albums ever
I think that was the album! Has Alan playing the guitar and singing, at a family picnic….without mother standing behind him….GREAT SONGS! The one that made us all laugh was Titwillow, titwilow, titwillow!
At first glance (or even 2nd, 3rd, or 4th glance), the entry of 30-1 morning line King Curlin in the Breeders’ Futurity seems like an obvious case of poor placement. By Curlin out of a graded-stakes turf winner by Arch, he was RNAed at the Keeneland yearling sale for $285K. The following year, King Curlin was sold at Ocala for a mere $25K. I can only imagine how that came to be.
Brittany Vanden Berg has a high percentage of winners (30%) — mostly at Hawthorne and Arlington Park — since she began her training career in 2019. She’s had starters in just two listed stakes (both finished 5th) and no starters in graded stakes. Until now.
King Curlin’s debut was 4 weeks ago in a 1m MSW turf race at Kentucky Downs. He was widest of all around the turn and into the stretch when he made a strong rally, finishing 2nd to the turf-bred Godolphin colt Grael in its second career race. He had his first ever workout on the dirt on Saturday at Keeneland and went 4f in 49.20. Ms. Vanden Berg must have thought well enough of that work to enter King Curlin in the Breeders’ Futurity. You don’t win races at a 30% clip by being overly ambitious.
There may be 9 or 10 runners in the Futurity that are more likely than King Curlin to win. But I wouldn’t be surprised if he succeeds.
Dreams are free and that’s why I am always dreaming.
Did you profit from your distinctly possible 2nd in the Alcibiades?
In case you are intending your reply to me …did not play today. I was just watching Keeneland today to “calibrate” what could be happening tomorrow … saving betting budget for tomorrow’s Stakes.
I know that I occasionally misdirect a post, but that one was for CF. He sang praises for the filly in an earlier comment. I should be saving my betting budget for next year. 😮 After one of my best months ever (August, thanks mainly to the Spa), I suffered through a vicious and sadistic September. But October turns the page, so we’ll see what Keeneland brings.
OH I see it know … CF was touting the daughter of Curlin in a post below. Hope he got some nice place tickets there…
And the $1 exacta paid $31.70!!!
I bet King Curlin to place in his KD debut… he did not disappoint at all… did he?
A maiden daughter of Curlin has just finished second in the Darley Alcibiades (the sister Stakes of the Breeder’s Futurity at Keeneland).
The difference is that Distinctlypossible shows a tag price of 670k and is trained by Chad Brown… but she shares King Curlin’s running style nonetheless.
I am wondering if Steve has already fetched any interesting story behind the 25K label on King Curlin and/or his rookie trainer…
If Steve hasn’t yet obtained the back story on KC, he will get it soon enough! 🙂
As I mentioned below I have decided not to continue with the sleepers series, and will provide a brief mention of sleepers in Knocking at the Door once the Derby Rankings start. I had my second sleeper all ready to go, but other columns took precedence and I had to delay it two weeks. Well, the sleeper I was planning on writing about is running in the Breeders’ Futurity tomorrow so I have to scrap that. I realize this is a time dependent column and I cant take the chance on this happening again and cannot always depend on posting the column in quick fashion as it would need to be.
Yes, I know that you decided not to continue the Sleepers Series. But if you discover anything interesting about King Curlin and connections, please let us know. 🙂
Will do
I am positive this CA based colt has been mentioned before and probably not as an under the radar candidate. But whilst he might not be under the radar, he is presently firmly in the shadow of the Baffert pair of Corniche and Pinehurst. That makes him under respected.
My conclusion that the Bernardini 4YO Art Collector will emerge the winner of BCC 202. Has led to another Bernardini progeny who is likely to contest the BC Juvenile. The colt is Oviatt Class.
Oviatt Class by Bearnadini out of a Tiznow mare doesn’t possess the high cruising speed of either sire or dam sire. The colt has been either last or 2nd to last in his 4 career starts. But despite surrendering an average 8L to opponent, he closes willingly to be in contention in the final furlong. Given that the KD hasn’t been won by deep closer since 2009. Oviatt Class doesn’t possess the profile of a recent KD and consequently might be under the radar for the KD.
This lack of speed isn’t typical for a Bernardini progeny. Oviatt Class dam sire Tiznow was also the dam sire of Tiz The Law who has tactical speed. This means Oviatt Class is bred along a similar cross to Tiz The Law. A deeper dive into his pedigree reflects his dam was out of a Kris S mare. Yes! The same Kris who sired 5 BC winners and was dam sire of 3 i.e., War Chant, Life Is Good and Zenyatta
The Baffert pair of Corniche and Pinehurst are no doubt formidable. But so were the likes of Daredevil, One Lucky Dane and Carpe Diem when the Keith Desormeaux trained Texas Red blew by them with a last to first move. Oviatt Class has similar running style to that of TexasRed. A strong pace is expected to ensue in the 2021 BCJ. The Jockey and trainer will be the same. Oviatt Class could be a 32021 version Texas red.
Sometime after a stallion passes its progenies she to keep it on the map. Would it be fitting for the great Bernardini to have two BC winners the year of his demise.
Darley Alcibiades Stakes (G1)
Good Magic won the BCJ as a maiden. Chad Brown will attempt to win the above G1 Stake with a maiden appropriately named Distinctlypossible. Whereas Good Magic had stakes experience with his 2nd place finish in the G1 Champagne. Distinctlypossible has made only one start in a MSW in which she was beaten post time favorite.
This a very interesting move on the path of trainer Brown. But he does have an interesting filly on his hands. She is by Curlin and was acquired out of a 2YO in training sale for $670,000. Her dam Funny Proposition has the distinction of defeating none other than Royal Delta by 5L over 9F.
A funny proposition met with an answer of distinctly possible makes for an interesting exchange. As interesting as the decision to enter a last out MSW runner-up in a GI Stakes. At a ML of 8/1 coupled with the glorious uncertainties of the sport. Its distinctly possible Chad Brown can land the gamble. Could this Curlin filly emerge as a KD Prospect?
Oviatt Class was on my sleepers list after his maaiden win. I am very impressed with him and feel he is going to run big in the BC
Oviatt Class is a beautiful animal—and he sports a big win at Del Mar….I know it was helped by a pace battle up front, but he still made a long run to victory–and I thought he ran very well in the Santa Anita prep—
Early returns indicate he’s a deep closer, a style that typically doesn’t win races at a high rate. That could change with experience and training.
Life Is Good got no Kris S…
Keith Desormeaux has a unique talent to find and develop inexpensive horses to Stakes level.
The following are among his top horses with their Auction price.
Exaggerator (110K), My Boy Jack (20K), Texas Red (17K) and Swipe (5K).
These four Stakes winners accrued 6.7 Million Dollars in earnings … Desormeaux’s ROI for this sample is a staggering 44.
The 60K paid for Oviatt Class is starting to look like a very profitable deal already…
Keith Desormeaux represents a great incentive for Thoroughbred ownership ventures indeed !
Funny that all five of those Desormeaux horses were (or are) closer types.
Even this far out I am convinced there will be no longshot winner of BCC, 2021.I am also convinced that Art Collector will emerge the winner. Why am I convinced he will be winner given the exploits of Knicks Go, Essential Quality Maxfield and Hot Rod Charlie? Well its a simple case of 3Turns.
Art Collector has contested five 9F races and has won all:
Bluegrass (2turns) – 1:48.11
Ellis Park Derby (2urns) – 1:48.02 (no whip allied)
Alydar (2turns) 1:48.20 (no whip allied)
Charles Town Classic (3turns) 1:49.39
Woodward 1turn) – 1:49.22
AC has an average wining time of 1:48.11 for his 2turn 9F races. He won the Charles Town Classic in the 2nd faster time for the stakes. Given that his final time in the 3turn CTC was 1:49.39 and his final time in the 1turn Woodward was 1:49.22. The Belmont surface was dead and slow. Another explanation for his slow Woodward time could be he was just out for an afternoon stroll i.e., a paid 9F work out.
Folks, 1turn 9F races at Belmont have been completed in 1:46+ by lesser horses than Art Collector. There is absolutely no way a horse that averages 1:48.11 for its 2turn 9F races, is suppose to be a full second plus slower for a 1turn.9F. Particularly with the sweeping turns at Belmont Park. Art Collector is easily a 1:46 horse at Belmont Park.
In two of Art Collector’s 2turn 9F race the whip wasn’t necessary and he still covered the distance in 148+ How fast will be the 9F split in the BCC? It is unlikely to be 1 48. Given his high cruising speed he is likely to be ideally placed just waiting to pounce. Who knowns he might just be sharp enough to lead.
How good is Art Collector?
He was the 2nd choice in the Preakness after a setback that caused him to miss the KD. The extent to which AC lost form
after his setback can be measured in the fact that Swiss Skydiver whom he easily defeated in the Bluegrass, beat him by 10L in the Preakness. He lost 3rd at the line to Jesus Team. The same Jesus Team that finished 2nd by 2 3/4L to Kincks Go in the Pegasus. Jesus Team was 40/1 in the Preakness and no part of Art Collector.
In the BC Dirt Mile an off colored Art Collector was 2nd choice to Knicks. Go He finished a badly beaten 8th by 91/2L Jesus Team 2nd by 3 1/2L and 5L ahead of Art Collector. But this time he was 62/1. If Jesus Team who is no part of Art Collector could get within 2 3/4l & 3 3/4L of Kincks Go. I am confident Art Collector can lower Knicks Go colors and all others
If Mott used the slow wagon Drosselmeyer to win the BCC. Art Collector will just need to show up. The great Bernarding left us recently. It would be a fitting tribute if what appears to be his best progeny can succeed where he failed.
OK….your first sentence you say you are convinced there will be no longshot winner of the Classic….and in your second sentence you say Art Collector is your pick for the win—if all of the contenders go….Art Collector would be a longshot.
weird……3 turns
Currently–if all go—Art Collector is the 10-1 5th choice on Jon White’s ML…(Dr Post is 20-1)…..
When Happy Saver defeated Mystic Guide and Tacitus in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. The undefeated Super Saver colt was viewed as the next big horse in the Pletcher barn. I cautioned those who rushed to this conclusion. There is lot data on Pletcher’s program. I therefore predicted that Happy Saver would go MIA for a while and would return not as good as he was before going away. He went MIA for 7 months and has not lived up to his early expectation up on his return
I was of the opinion Happy Saver would have defeated Tacitus as the Tapit grey is a grinder incapable of repelling late challenges. But I was surprised he defeated Jim Dandy winner Mystic Guide who was the more accomplished of the 3YO entrants in the JCGC.
Prior to the JCGC Happy Saver mare 3 career starts. His most notable win was recorded in the Federico Tesio (Black Type). It’s not the kind of resume that one expected to win a major G1 race. But he did with authority. Why Mention Happy Saver?
Dr. Post had 3 starts prior to contesting the rescheduled Belmont Stakes. His most notable win was recorded in the Unbridled (Black Type) Despite being made the 3rd choice by post time, I was surprised he finished 2nd. Max Player, Sole Volante and Farmington Road had more credentials. Would Dr. P go MIA similar to Happy Saver? Not after the Belmont but 2 races later, he was MIA for 8 months.
Has the surprise runner up to Tiz The Law in the Belmont lived up to expectation since his return? Two G3 win and two 3rd place finishes in G1 is decent. But at no point his G1 efforts did he remotely appeared to emerge the winner.
Horses from TP barn that go MIA for long stretches, rarely if ever return to win at the highest level. They will be good but not good enough will win the big ones.
Unfortunately my next scheduled “Sleeper,” maiden winner Rattle N Roll, is running Saturday in the Breeders’ Futurity, so he will have to be a late scratch from the series. That looks like its going to be problem with this series, so I think I will just use the premise in abbreviated form in next year’s Knocking on the Door when there will be no time conflicts rather than continue it in its original format as a separate column. Anyway, I’ll be curious to see how he does. I will however mention horses I feel are sleepers on here until Derby Rankings begins in January..
Steve, Rattle N Roll is a good tip for the Breeders’ Futurity, which is a wide open race in my opinion. (Personally, I like Don’t Wait Up, whose two races I caught live.) You should have plenty of contenders for the 2YO sleeper column after the Breeders’ Cup in November and December, when so many Triple Crown contenders start popping out of the woodwork. Hope to read more of these soon!
Rattle N Roll should be much much better next year. The horse to beat is Classic Causeway who was awesome in his debut, but he drew post 13, which is tough at Keeneland. Another long-range Derby type horse I like is Kevin’s Folly, but he too will be much better next year. Dont Wait Up could be any kind. Fascinating race.
Classic Causeway looks mighty fine! Could this be Brian Lynch’s first Derby horse?
That would be sweet, Eddie. Safe trips to all.
Yes Eddie… the son of Giant Causeway is undeniably the fastest of all so far.
You may want to include Mac’s Time and Costa Terra for windfall exotics though …!
All three are homebreds. Gotta love it!
Agree Classic Causewaylooked terrific in his debut….longshot American Sanctuary had an abysmal trip at Monmouth, race much better than looks….
Another one i agree with……looked very good on video
Seems to me like Pletcher is attentively reading your Sleeper series… you only mentioned Commandperformance as your first sleeper and …. Bam ! he went straight to the Champagne … no less.
So, I would not be surprised to see Dr. Post entering the BC Classic after the compelling case you drew in this article.
I tend to think that there are better mile-and-a-quarter pedigrees than Dr. Post’s… but his stride and closing drive make him dangerous under the right circumstances.
In principle I thought that the hiccups you described in Dr. Post’s last two races were signaling something wrong with him, but I take your word about not changing leads being a circumstantial issue.
I do not know if Code of Honor and Tacitus will be in the Classic or if they will improve enough to be worthy competitors, but Dr. Post is a good option to use underneath the exotics.
Medina Spirit, Hot Rod Charlie and Midnight Bourbon are growing stronger every day and they will be giving a hard time to Knicks Go and Art Collector in completing the 1 ¼ mile of the Classic. Perhaps Art Collector and Hot Rod Charlie could be taking the role of stalkers, but Medina Spirit and Midnight Bourbon will certainly be exchanging serious strikes with Knicks Go from the get-go.
As you stated, the pace of the BC Classic will be very demanding for the one-dimensional speedsters. In theory the stage will be set for any brilliant stalker or closer … when the race was ran at Del Mar, Gun Runner was able to dictate the pace and the first three horses at the start were the first three at the end. It will be very different this time; we can expect split times in the order of 22, 45, 69 and 94 seconds before seeing the cavalry coming at the surviving pacesetter…!
I believe a 3-year-old will win this BC Classic … those youngsters look that good.
Even a 3-year-old without a top-5- credentials like Stilleto Boy was able to easily defeat the (allegedly) best older horses in California with a running-up effort behind Medina Spirit in the Awesome Again Stakes.
Last Saturday the Champ Essential Quality had his third workout after the Travers. He worked 5F in 59.20 at Churchill looking better than ever. His speed ratings are a bit below those of Knicks Go but the tentative hot pace and the distance
With a month to the big race the Jockeys must already be pondering best tactics for their horses. Will anyone steal the race with a frontrunner or, as expected, will one astute Jockey measure the race perfectly with a closer?
For the Classic, Luis Saez will surely stick with Essential Quality, leaving Art Collector to be most likely reunited with Brian Hernandez. Irad Ortiz would have to decide between Dr. Post and Happy Saver if Pletcher decides to enter both.
The BC Classic always features the biggest names and settles many championships.
I would not be surprised to see Godolphin closing its stellar year with three or four favorites in different BC races and crowning this season with a Classic Exacta.
Agree with you, Nelson, about the 3 year olds. Midnight Bourbon, however, won’t be one of them the last I heard. Asmussen said that MB would bypass the BCC, possibly running in the Clark Hcp later in November or resting for a 4yo debut.
Thanks for the update Eddie… I should have inferred that Midnight Bourbon was not going since Steve did not mention him here…
I somehow confused Midnight Bisou with Midnight Bourbon… oopsssss!!!
A few things, Dr Post had no problem changing leads in his previous races. The bigger the turn and the wider you go the harder it is to change leads. The sharper the turns the easier it is.
The three big 3-year-olds look strong, but also remember that none of them have a run a faster Thoro-Graph figure than Dr Post.
Good point… Again, hope Pletcher reads this.
BTW Steve, do you think that Mo Donegal is another sleeper for Todd Pletcher… ? He looks like a mile and ¼ horse…!
I love the way he was closing in the stretch. Both his horses look promising from that race.
Foes Dr. Post have the profile of the last 5 past longshot winners of the BCC? Well let’s see what the colt facts reflect:
Drosselmeyer won 1 of his last 3 starts preceding the BCC. He won the BCC @14/1. He previously won a G1.
Pleasantly Perfect won 1 of his last 3 starts preceding the BCC. He won the BCC @14/1. His best finish in 2 previous G1s was 4th.
Volponi won 1 of his last 5 starts preceding the BCC. He won the BCC @43/1. His best finish in 2 previous G1s was 4th & 7th.
Cat Thief won 1 of his last 4 starts preceding the BCC. He won the BCC @19/1. . He previously won a G1.
Alphabet Soup won 1 of his last 3 starts preceding the BCC. He won the BCC @19/1. His best finish in 1 previous G1s was 10th.
Dr. Post has won 1 of his last 3 starts. He will no doubt leave the gates at an attractive price should he be directed to the BCC. He has a contested 5 G1s to date with a best finish of 2nd. He therefore possesses a some what similar profile to that of 19/1 BCC winner Cat Thief.
Maxfield has won 1 of his last 3 starts. He will no doubt leave the gates at an attractive price should he be directed to the BCC. Why am I of the opinion Maxfield will be at attractive odds? EQ, HRC, Art Collector (the one to beat), MS and Kincks Go. He is likely to be either the 5th or 6th choice. Maxfield has a record of winning when not well fancied – MSW debut won at 10/1; Keeneland Breeders Futurity won at 6/1. The year Godolphin is having must be factored in. Another Homebred winning a major race
Given the bit of cold facts above. DR. Post and Maxfield can emerge upset winner of the BCC. With the latter being the most likely of the two.
Agree with you, Nelson, about the 3 year olds. Midnight Bourbon, however, won’t be one of them the last I heard. Asmussen said that MB would bypass the BCC, possibly running in the Clark Hcp later in November or resting for a 4yo debut.
Whoops! This was meant for Nelson.
I saw something i don’t like from DR POST……lets see what happens….
Of course……they mocked me for saying SEARCH RESULTS had a problem………look what happened….
what now? EDDIE F?……..REMEMBER what you posted?
Rockefeller also bad signs
“you were right vet………i shouldn’t have mocked you”…….
That’s a BOLD case you made, Steve. Who can argue against a big longshot? Not me. But Dr. Post seems like he only knows a wide trip. Is there any reason to think he won’t be wide in the Classic? No doubt he’ll have a lively pace to aim for. But so will better stalkers and closers. Ya gotta go back to ’03 for a Classic winner that hadn’t won a G1 prior: Pleasantly Perfect at 14-1. Critical of a longshot pick? Never!
Eddie, if my memory serves I believe Pleasantly Perfect was a pretty darned good horse.
IMO, this is not the year for a real longshot to win. Del Mar is a very unusually configured race track.
Pretty much why I like either Medina Spirit or the hard hitting versatile Essential Quality. Hot Rod Charlie is also a major player.
If Dr. Post wins then I will give congrats to all of those who picked him. There are some very nice horses in this years edition of the BCC.
Hey, Deacon. You’re right that PP was a very good horse. But he was best beginning with the BCC win. After that he won the Dubai World Cup and the Pacific Classic. Before the BCC win, he was 0 for 2 in G1s and had won the G2 Goodwood twice. No way I’d have had him in my final considerations for the ’03 BCC.
Really looking forward to the Classic next month. Should be an honest race, with excellent speed horses, stalkers, and closers.
I went to the 2003 Breeders Cup with a carload of characters, we commandeered a bench by the walking ring, and it was hot! Around 100 degrees, everyone was saying the European horses were going to hate the heat–Islington won the F & M Turf…High Chaparal deah heated in the Turf…Six Perfections won the Mile….saw Julie Krone win a race from the 14 post–and nearly crashed into her after the race–told her good ride and she thanked me, like the classy gal she is….brought exactly $400 to the track, and made my $20 & $20 wagers when I got in—and by the last race–the Classic—I was brokes-ville, except for my $20 & $20 on Pleasantly Perfect—went over to the apron to watch it—Solis had him going wide after them, was third inside the final 1/16, he passed Congaree, and then he got Madaglia D’Oro in the shadow of the wire—and I got back exactly $400 for my wager!
Horse racing needs more personalities like Julie Krone.
I like Dr Post! he sat back there off of slow splits—came widest and stuck around—wasn’t beaten by much…..there’s much pace in the Classic this year!
Steve: Thanks for posting a new column! This is really shaping up to be an interesting Classic. I’ve never thought Dr. Post was good enough to win a grade 1, but then I thought the same of Knicks Go not long ago. (Now he really impresses me.) Any horse that blossoms at the right time can be good enough to win that elusive stallion-making race.
Meanwhile, I’ve become mini-obsessed with the search for more under-the-radar 2YOs, especially since so few of this year’s group have proven themselves at this late point in the season. Since I love his pedigree, I reviewed Hoist the Gold’s 9/25 Churchill win by disqualification, then found myself preferring Cyberknife, whose number came down. Another true sleeper: Blue Kentucky, a Larry Jones-owned trainee who recently won at Ellis Park, along with Varatti, a Belmont winner who obviously won’t appear soon because he’s trained by Todd Pletcher.
I don’t think we’ve seen the best of the crop yet by any measure. Such an exciting time of year!
That’s how you find longshots. Look for horses who people feel cant win. I think Dr Post has a shot under the right circumstances but I certainly dont love him. If people liked him then he wouldnt be a sleeper. Lol
I’m no plunger, but the Breeder’s Cup Classic is one race where you can bet a first-class horse and get odds of 5-1 or more. I’m thinking that (or higher) may be the price for Medina Spirit. There is still a month to go, so anything can happen. (And probably will, to change my mind!)
I wonder if he’s backing up to build up steam to pass everyone. He’s wild to watch and would be a fun pick in the Classic.
UPDATE — Art Collector and Dr Post both got a negative-1 1/2 Thoro-Graph figure. So he ran as fast as the clear-cup winner and faster than runner-up Maxfield. That was his third negative figure in his last 5 starts.
Also Jack Christopher got a huge 4 1/2 in the Champagne and Commandperformance got a 5, despite being beaten 2 3/4 lengths, which is a fantastic figure for a maiden…and with only one start. And finishing 7 lengths ahead of the third horse. Question now is what to do with him.
Happy October Steve. Some real thought provoking assessments in your post. Having spent many a summer at Del Mar way back in the day & into the 1970’s those sharp turns & short stretch make it tough on closers. Plus as you mentioned east coast shippers have not fared too well at Del Mar.
I would have thought Knicks Go would be more suited for the Dirt Mile as would Maxfield perhaps. Essential Quality, Medina Spirit & Hot Rod Charlie would be my top 3 picks right now. I do believe a top class 3 year old will win the Classic this year.
With so many top class horses in this years Classic it is hard for me to believe a longshot would have a chance.
Art Collector is sharp right now so he would be my 4 year pick to win.
I do know this though, Medina Spirit is one tough little horse and I think we would get at least 5-1 on him.
The short stretch does bother me, but I would hope a fast contentious pace could negate that. And he does have a race over the track
I agree with Deacon about the three year olds ..it just looks like this year a three year old will win….eastern based horses did well in the only other Del Mar Breeders Cup…..eastern shippers did well at Del Mar this Summer, too.
Steve your spot on with your observation of Dr. Post I got to put that in my pocket to save it. I’m usually looking for something from across the pond. Since 93 though when Arcangues ended up with Bailey on him I’ll throw a saver on great jock with a pick up mount. We all have to thank John Nerud for his help starting this for it has changed the game some people say for better and for worse, I say for the former for where else can you see the best in the sport in 40 hours. Just a reply from Camp Eagles Nest to Camp Grenada. I would sing the camp song but its very profane.( It was written by Fire Sign Theater.)
I wrote in my BC report for DRF that Arcangues was a live longshot for the Classic and explained why. I couldnt decide whether to pick him to win in the paper or make him my longshot pick. I asked our copy chief if they were using a longshot pick and he said they were. So I made him my longshot pick. When the paper came out the next day there were no longshot picks, so I didnt even have a mention of him anywhere. I bet a measly $4 on him to win in the morning with the intention of betting more later when I saw his odds. But I was so busy writing my deadline recap of the Turf I forgot all about it. The people I touted him to made thousands of dollars and all I had was the $4 bet. I have never been so depressed at a racetrack as I was after that Classic and for the next several months. To this day I have never watched that race again and when it comes on TV I quickly switch the channel even though I did win several hundred dollars. But between not having my pick show up in the paper and blowing thousands of dollars that is still my worst wagering nightmare.
Have you ever thought you copy chief put that pick in his pocket for himself?
He told me afterward he made a ton of money on him based on my tout. But it wasnt his decision to cut it out. It obviously was done by mistake or for space.
I hope he bought you lunch! Although it would probably be hard to swallow.
That was the year the favorite and 2nd choice were Cal-breds
Hi Steve
Is it just a coincidence that your KD sleeper, Commandperformance, and your BC Classic sleeper, Dr Post, are both sired by Quality Road? Or, are you especially fond of Quality Road offspring? Just wondering.
Edit to above reply
My mistake, Commandperformance was sired by Union Rags.
They say the mind is first to go. Please excuse my original post.
You are excused. But I am fond of Quality Road.
I can definitely see Dr. Post in the exotics. Have
always liked him. His run in the Woodward was bizarre.
He started backing up so abruptly I feared he was injured,
then bang, coming on like a freight train. Hope his Classic,
if he runs, is a less dramatic adventure.
If you think the Woodward was bizarre go watch his Pacific Classic.
I’M not giving up on IDOL to be full cranked for this race and he too is a closer.
Great point! Idol had a tummy, I was there in the saddling barn…and they didn’t bet him….he can run all day, and there will be mid-race moves, Idol will sit back there and wait….he is a good horse.