2023 Derby Rankings – Week 12
Of the 15 horses ranked last week, seven were entered on Saturday, so you knew there likely would be a major shakeup, either eliminating horses or seeing a drastic change in the order. Now that all the preps are finished with the exception of Saturday’s Lexington Stakes we at least have an idea what the Derby field is going to look like. Right now, however, there are several horses waiting to get in who may be better and more qualified than those already in. ~ Steve Haskin
Derby Rankings: April 10, 2023 – Week 12
By Steve Haskin
1—Forte (Todd Pletcher, Violence – Queen Caroline, by Blame)
For those of you who see Pletcher, Repole, and Viola and go ho hum, no story there, meet Amy Moore. A lawyer for 30 years, she wanted to get out in the country after retiring, so she returned to her roots with horses, having showed them for other people as a teenager, and bought a 126-acre farm in Millwood, Virginia. The first horse she bought was a Blame filly at the Keeneland September yearling sale for $170,000. Amy named her Queen Caroline, who won several stakes at Laurel and Indiana Grand. After retiring her, Amy bred her to Violence and got a floppy-eared colt, who she thought looked comical, like a newborn puppy with its ears bent forward, and with his flashy white markings she nicknamed him Gaudy. One of only two foals on the farm and the first one conceived, he was extremely shy and would always hide behind his mother when someone approached, but after being weaned he became very friendly and loved being around people. He also was inquisitive about everything and once tried to pull the hoodie off Amy’s niece’s head. Amy still cherishes the selfie of the colt with the hoodie in his mouth taken by her niece, who lived on the farm and taught him how to eat carrots. Amy sold both colts as weanlings, but was disappointed in the $80,000 she got for the Violence colt. The following year she watched him sell at the Keeneland yearling sale for $110,000. She was just happy knowing he would be going to such top connections. You know the rest of the story. Not bad for a retired lawyer with only two broodmares and two foals at the time. Oh, yes, Queen Caroline is in foal to Flightline. And so the story grows.
2—Tapit Trice (Todd Pletcher, Tapit – Danzatrice, by Dunkirk)
Although all three preps on Saturday were won in photos there were more good things to say about his victory. He beat a very good horse who ran a winning race after a perfect pace scenario sitting behind an 86-1 shot though moderate to slow factions; he had to adjust by making a big early move down the backstretch, where he made up six lengths quickly while racing five-wide and passing four horses in about two seconds to move into third. It was that move that put him in position to beat Verifying, who would have been near impossible to beat otherwise. They hooked up turning for home, battling head and head, and not only drew almost six lengths clear of the field at the finish, they pulled away from three closers with a final eighth in :12 2/5. He needed to improve his speed figures and jumped 11 points from the Tampa Derby with a 99 Beyer. A short while later, Lord Miles, who Tapit Trice had beaten by 5 3/4 lengths in the Tampa Bay Derby, won the Wood Memorial at odds of 59-1. From a visual standpoint, he once again demonstrated his ability to win from anywhere using those long fluid strides, and for the second time he came out ahead in a stretch-long battle with a good horse. So add all that up and you can see why he is right up there nip and tuck with Forte for the top spot.
3—Derma Sotogake (Hidetaki Otonashi, Mind Your Biscuits – Neo Universe, by Sunday Silence)
After seeing what Mandarin Hero did in the Santa Anita Derby and considering that Derma Sotogake is supposedly in a different class than his countrymate who raced on a smaller circuit, how can you not rank this colt way up near the top? We haven’t seen the Thoro-Graph numbers yet for this past weekend, but going into it he still was the fastest 3-year-old on Thoro-Graph, with his UAE Derby more than two points faster than Forte’s Florida Derby. There will be believers and non-believers regarding his winning the Kentucky Derby, with hard-core racing fans still unable to grasp the idea of a Japanese colt draped in roses. This would create a gigantic crack in the once impenetrable Derby dam, and who knows if the resulting flood can be stopped. Perhaps we should start by producing tougher, faster, and more experienced horses with some mileage under them. Yes, we are getting way ahead of ourselves, and Derma Sotogake still has a very tough assignment ahead of him, having traveled from Japan to Saudi Arabia, then to Dubai before flying to Chicago to be quarantined and finally vanning to Louisville. And this after running six times in Japan last year on dirt and grass and never shorter than 1 1/16 miles. But it doesn’t hurt to be prepared so we are not in a state of shock and perhaps humiliation if it should happen. See our special bonus feature in Knocking on the Door.
4—Practical Move (Tim Yakteen, Practical Joke – Ack Naughty, by Afleet Alex)
Although I moved him out of his familiar No. 2 spot, I am still a big fan of this colt, but I have no idea what to make of the Santa Anita Derby, mainly not knowing if Mandarin Hero is that good or that the Japanese horses can do no wrong regardless of who they are and where they are running. As far as his performance the important thing is that he showed a lot of grit and refused to let two horses get by him in the final furlong. But with Geaux Rocket Ride scratched he had another ground-saving dream trip, this time sitting right behind a 54-1 shot and a 40-1 shot and able to take over whenever Ramon Vasquez wanted. I actually thought Vasquez waited too long and was still way up in the saddle when the late-closing Skinner came charging up alongside him approaching the quarter pole, with Mandarin Hero looking to get through right behind him. It wasn’t until he looked over and saw Skinner right there that he finally set his horse down. To Practical Move’s credit he did respond and opened up by a length at the eighth pole. But his two challengers kept coming at him. It looked like Mandarin Hero, stuck in the middle, was going to nail him, but Practical Move would not be denied, winning by a nose. The mile in 1:35 3/5 and final time of 1:48 3/5 were solid, with the :12 4/5 final eighth just OK. But he did run his second straight 100 Beyer speed figure. You just don’t like seeing a leading Derby contender be farther in front at the eighth pole than he is at the finish. I’m going to need a little more time to digest this race more thoroughly, but he remains right up there with the top ranked horses.
5—Angel of Empire (Brad Cox, Classic Empire – Armony’s Empire, by To Honor and Serve)
I have not heard anyone even attempt to pick apart any aspect of his Arkansas Derby victory. The only reason he’s not higher is the questionable ability of the horses behind him, who were pretty much spread out across the track and doing little running other than 58-1 shot King Russell who just got up for second. To show how much Angel of Empire has improved, when he finished second in the Smarty Jones Stakes he ran a career-high “9 1/2” on Thoro-Graph. He then leaped to a “2 1/2″ in his victory at 13-1 in the Risen Star Stakes. With a big jump like that you always have to be concerned with a “bounce,” but he came back and ran a “2” in the Arkansas Derby. By virtually pairing up (with a slight improvement) his career best number, there is no reason to believe he won’t take another jump forward in the Kentucky Derby. He totally dominated the race and was the only horse who did any serious running, while sustaining his big run with a powerful :36 3/5 final three-eighths and drawing off with ease. While his female family might not be inundated with big names, it traces to pillars of the Turf Darby Dan Farm, Rokeby Stable, C.V. Whitney, George Widener, Spendthrift Farm, and Lane’s End Farm. The Albaugh Family has had their share of disappointments trying to get to the Derby, but now they have a big shot with perhaps the steal of the year, snatching him out of the Keeneland September yearling sale for $70,000.
6—Verifying (Brad Cox, Justify – Diva Delite, by Repent)
With lots of question marks surrounding the vast majority of the Blue Grass starters and with him looking like the one who would control the pace, either setting it or sitting just off it, it was no surprise to see him go off as the 2-1 second choice and no surprise to see him run such a strong race. If not for a bold but brilliant early move by Luis Saez on Tapit Trice down the backstretch, he very well could have won this race by open lengths after sitting off a slow pace set by an 86-1 shot. Looking way ahead to the Kentucky Derby, there doesn’t appear to be much speed, and this could set him up beautifully to get a similar type of trip or even setting the pace himself. Kingsbarns, the wire-to-wire winner of the Louisiana Derby, doesn’t have this colt’s natural speed, and I’m not sure if Derma Sotogake, who has a good closing kick, wants to go to the front again as he did in Dubai. In short, Verifying ran a winning race, and we know he has the ability and the pedigree to carry his speed a distance of ground. The first thing I did after the Rebel Stakes was put a line through his fourth-place finish after getting caught in heavy traffic at a crucial stage. The Blue Grass appeared perfectly suited for his tactical and high cruising speed and he nearly pulled it off.
7—Hit Show (Brad Cox, Candy Ride – Actress, by Tapit)
At first glance I didn’t like the fact that he was beaten by a huge longshot who had never run faster than a 79 Beyer figure and that he narrowly got the better of a maiden with two lifetime starts, but I am definitely giving him a pass, as I believe he was the best horse in the race. He was coming off a two-month layoff, he had to overcome a horrible post and was caught four-wide into the first turn, then was bounced around like a three-cushion billiard shot between horses the length of the stretch. I couldn’t help but think of a line from the musical Man of La Mancha that goes, “Whether the pitcher hits the stone or the stone hits the pitcher it’s going to be bad for the pitcher.” Hit Show was the pitcher, hitting and getting hit by stones from both sides, but he never cracked. I think this race did him a world of good and will bring him into the Derby tougher and more battle-tested than he’s ever been. As for the competition, the winner surely wasn’t disgraced against Tapit Trice in the Tampa Bay Derby in only his fourth career start, and Dreamlike has always been highly touted since selling for $975,000, had decent speed figures in his two starts, and was bet down to 3-1 second choice, so his future appears very bright. Hit Show’s pedigree says he will handle the mile and a quarter with no problem and I believe he is ready to make a big forward move.
8—Two Phil’s (Larry Rivelli, Hard Spun — Mia Torri, by General Quarters)
If you love him now you’re going to love him on Derby Day. If you’re skeptical now you’re going to be skeptical on Derby Day. If you have no idea what to make of him now you’re not going to have any idea what to make of him on Derby Day. It’s all about whether or not he moved up at least five lengths on the synthetic surface or he has improved dramatically into a dynamic type of horse. He was always an honest steady horse, but we had never seen this type of explosiveness. Not only did he blow his field away in the Jeff Ruby Steaks, he didn’t want to stop after the race. He still had his head down into the bit and seemed to resent it when his rider tried to pull him up. Finally, the outrider had to come up alongside and help slow him down. If this is the horse we’re going to see at Churchill Downs then he will be very tough to beat. Two of the most explosive stretch runs we’ve seen in the Derby were by horses, Animal Kingdom and Rich Strike, coming off the Turfway Park synthetic surface. You can’t ignore his 101 Beyer figure, his 107 Brisnet figure, and his interesting and improving Thoro-Graph pattern. After running a “7 3/4“ three races in a row, he improved to a “4” and then paired that up before running a “2” in the Jeff Ruby. If he takes another step forward it would put him in excellent position to win the Derby.
9—Skinner (John Shirreffs, Curlin – Winding Way, by Malibu Moon)
Although I still would like to see him finish off his races I am anticipating him getting a career-high Thoro-Graph number for the Santa Anita Derby and I did like the acceleration he showed making a strong sweeping move on the far turn to pull on even terms with Practical Move at the head of the stretch. He also took a few solid bumps in deep stretch when Practical Move came out from a left-handed whip and pushed Mandarin Hero into him. This horse seems to be coming into the Kentucky Derby similar to Giacomo in that Shirreffs has moved him forward in baby steps with the intention of peaking on the first Saturday in May. You know he will love the mile and a quarter and just needs a contentious pace to be able to time is move just right. His :36 4/5 final three-eighths in the Santa Anita was certainly good enough to indicate he can sustain him move. He just has to find one more gear late to give him that final surge needed to win the Derby.
10—Kingsbarns (Todd Pletcher, Uncle Mo – Lady Tapit, by Tapit)
I believe he is more talented than several of those ranked ahead of him, but it is his lack of experience with only three career starts that is keeping him down here. As I keep saying, he will be trying to do something that has been done only two times in the last 107 years and those by two dominating horses in below average crops. It is highly unlikely he will be able to set the sluggish factions he did in the Louisiana Derby, but I also doubt they even want him on the lead again. He has shown a lot in his three races, all at a mile or longer, has overcome adversity, and will benefit from having a 1 3/16-mile race under his belt. This is the kind of year when any of the top 12 or so horses can win the Derby without it being a surprise, so all we can do is see how the race shapes up and who gets the best trip. He will surely make his presence felt; it’s just a question of whether he can overcome history. He also may lose Flavien Prat if he decides to ride his Arkansas Derby winner Angel of Empire.
11—Mage (Gustavo Delgado, Good Magic – Puca, by Big Brown)
Like Kingsbarns, he would be ranked higher if he had more experience or had at least raced as a 2-year-old. The last horse before Justify to win the Derby without having raced at 2 was Apollo in 1882. Add that to having only three career starts and you have to at least wonder if both Mage and Kingsbarns will be at a historical disadvantage .I’m not naïve enough to believe neither of these two brilliant colts can win the Derby, but I have to give precedence to others, especially with these 3-year-olds so evenly matched. I felt what Mage did in the Florida Derby, especially that explosive move on the far turn, was extraordinary and stamps him as a colt with a bright future, but for now I will cling to history until more horses prove it no longer has any bearing on the Kentucky Derby. That could be Kingsbarns or it could be Mage. Let’s first see how both colts work over the next few weeks and how they came out of their respective performances. His jockey Luis Saez won the Blue Grass on Tapit Trice, so he too could be looking for a new rider.
12—Mandarin Hero (Terunobu Fujita, Shanghai Bobby – Namura Nadeshiko, by Fuji Kaseki)
Based on his huge effort in the Santa Anita Derby and the courage he showed stuck in the middle of a furious three-horse stretch drive, he probably fits more as a top 5 or 6 horse, but the two questions that have him ranked here for the time being are, is he going to make the starting field on points and can he duplicate that remarkable effort in his second start in this country. Often, foreign horses run their best shipping in and then regress in their next start. No one is saying that is going to happen with this colt, but it is worth at least giving it some thought and wait to see how he looks and trains at Churchill Downs. As for the points, his 40 have him listed at No. 24. He should get in the top 20 as several are expected to pass the race or are on the fence. But there will be several in Saturday’s Lexington Stakes who are running strictly for points, and one of them could leapfrog him with a victory. So is he simply a very good horse regardless of the circuit in which he was competing in Japan or are we to use him more as a gauge as to what we should expect from Derma Sotogake and even Continuar? Three Japanese horses in the Kentucky Derby? That may soon become a reality.
13—Disarm (Steve Asmussen, Gun Runner – Easy Tap, by Tapit)
The Asmussen camp has always been very high on this colt and so they will chase those few extra points needed to get in the Kentucky Derby by running him in Saturday’s Lexington Stakes, which could turn out to be the most competitive Lexington in years. This is their last chance to crack the top 20, and it could turn out to be a plus for Disarm, as I have said I wish he had one more start under him. His excellent second in the 1 3/16-mile Louisiana Derby put a good deal of bottom under him and now the 1 1/16-mile Lexington could sharpen him up and give him that one more start I was looking for. I have been high on this horse since last August when he broke his maiden so impressively going seven furlongs and I even ranked him No. 12 earlier in the year based on that race. With 40 points, even a second-place finish should get him in the Derby, and if he should win impressively he likely will move up in the Rankings. So far I have loved both his runner-up performances in which he ran into lone speed horses who had everything their own way on the lead. If he does get in the Derby and has a contentious pace to run at, watch out for him in the stretch.
14—Raise Cain (Ben Colebrook, Violence – Lemon Belle, by Lemon Drop Kid)
They are heading to the Derby with him and I’m all for it. He was stuck back in 10th behind a relatively slow pace in the Blue Grass Stakes after breaking from post 10, having to rally five-wide, and closing well enough for fifth, getting beat only three-quarters of a length for third. I still can’t forget how good he looked crushing his field in the Gotham Stakes despite encountering trouble nearing the top of the stretch. I had him ranked fairly high for over a month and I feel now he could come to Churchill Downs flying well under the radar.
15—Lord Miles (Saffie Joseph Jr., Curlin – Lady Esme, by Majestic Warrior)
This ranking is pretty low for a Wood Memorial winner, but that performance at 59-1 came out of left field and caught everyone by surprise even on a day filled with longshot winners. But he won it fair and square and had to fight off two other horses, including the favored Hit Show. As mentioned earlier he was beaten only 5 3/4 lengths by Tapit Trice in the Tampa Bay Derby, finishing a decent fifth. He sat right behind the pace in the Wood, swung out and out-battled Hit Show and Dreamlike for the nose victory while taking his share of bumps in the stretch. While I respect what he did I still see him as a big longshot in the Kentucky Derby.
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR
BLAZING SEVENS had been ranked pretty high earlier in the year before his bust in the Fountain of Youth Stakes. But he did rebound with a solid third in the Blue Grass Stakes, making a good run on the far turn to reach contention before flattening out a bit in the final three sixteenths. He is a Champagne Stakes winner and finished a respectable fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile so he does have back class and looks to be back on track after that dismal performance in his 3-year-old debut.
KING RUSSELL, who had run five straight double-digit Thoro-Graph numbers, jumped to a “5” in his fast-closing second in the Arkansas Derby and looks like a horse who is improving at the right time. The only reason he isn’t ranked is because he is No. 25 on the points list, so he will need some help getting in the starting gate. The colt’s owner and breeder, Airdrie Stud, which has never owned a Kentucky Derby starter, hadn’t given the Derby trail a second thought following King Russell’s neck maiden victory, but trainer Ron Moquett asked Airdrie’s Bret Jones, “What do you think about entering in the Arkansas Derby?” Jones felt “if Ron is that happy with him we trust his judgment.” That good judgment just may get him into the Kentucky Derby with a little luck.
ROCKET CAN, who again was a bit too one-paced when fifth in the Arkansas Derby, arrived at Churchill Downs and is still under consideration for the Kentucky Derby, as is JACE’S ROAD, third in the Louisiana Derby, who breezed a half in :49 3/5 at Churchill Downs and is sitting with 45 points. Sunland Derby winner WILD ON ICE vanned to Southern California and was scheduled to fly to Louisville. CYCLONE MISCHIEF is No. 22 on the points list after his third to Forte in the Florida Derby. It’s just a question of how far he wants to go. Kenny McPeek said no decision has been made whether to point to the Derby with SUN THUNDER, fourth in the Blue Grass Stakes.
CONFIDENCE GAME, who has been listed as a possible starter for several stakes and not running in any of them, is now listed as a possible starter for the Lexington Stakes. We can’t recall a Derby horse taking longer to recover from a race than the Rebel Stakes winner, yet he keeps working well, with his latest move a five-furlong drill in 1:00 2/5 at Churchill Downs. Good luck trying to figure out what going on with this colt. Is he going to go straight into the Derby? One horse looking for enough points to get in the Derby is INSTANT COFFEE, who will give it one last try in the Lexington following his poor effort in the Louisiana Derby. The once highly regarded VICTORY FORMATION, impressive winner of the Smarty Jones Stakes before running terribly in the Risen Star Stakes, also is listed as possible for the Lexington, and also worked five furlongs on 1:00 2/5 at Churchill Downs.
If you want to know the evolution of Japanese racing and breeding, here is an extended bonus feature.
A long long time ago there was a great race in America called the Washington D.C. International, which attracted horses from all over the world. Although two of them, Speed Symboli and Takeshiba-O, boasted excellent records in their country no one paid much attention to them. That’s because they were from Japan, whose horses were light years away from those in North and South America, Europe, Australia, South Africa, and even Russia, which boasted a top-class international campaigner named Aniline. The Japanese were in the infantile stages of building a breeding industry.
In the 1970s, the Japanese started buying stallions and mares from the United States, much as the U.S. did with Europe, importing horses like Nasrullah, Princequillo, Ribot, Mahmoud, Sir Gallahad, Turn-To, and Sea-Bird. From these stallions came Triple Crown winners Secretariat, Seattle, Slew, and Affirmed, as well as Spectacular Bid and Forego and many other great champions and sires.
They began to hit home runs with Brian’s Time and Sunday Silence, who both dominated the racing and breeding industry in Japan. Over the years, many U.S. classic winners and champions followed. In 1996, Japan sent a horse named Taiki Blizzard to Woodbine for the Breeders’ Cup Classic against the great Cigar. The colt got an enormous amount of publicity, including a daily “Blizzard Report,” in the Daily Racing Form, written by yours truly. But not much had changed in Japan, as Taiki Blizzard finished last.
Then in 2005 came the first horse to open our eyes to what was happening in Japan when they sent a powerhouse of a filly named Cesario, winner of the Japanese Oaks, to Hollywood Park for the American Oaks. Not only did she run off before the race she crushed the field in one of the most breathtaking performances of the year. Cesario was by a son of Sunday Silence, out of a mare by the U.S.-bred Sadler’s Wells. The tide was about to turn.
Three years later, the Japanese sent over a half-brother to the previous two Belmont Stakes winners Jazil and Rags to Riches named Casino Drive, by Mineshaft, out of the Deputy Minister mare Better Than Honour to try to make it three straight Belmont victories for the mare. The Japanese were growing in confidence that their horses could compete with anyone and had no fear of the undefeated Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner Big Brown. Casino Drive solidified the belief that these were no longer the Japanese horses of old when he won the Peter Pan Stakes by almost six lengths in a swift 1:47 4/5 for the mile and an eighth. Unfortunately, he suffered a minor injury Belmont week and had to be withdrawn.
What the Americans noticed about the Japanese, who were now ahead of us in technology, was that they kept their horses out of the barn for over an hour each morning, walking them long distances throughout the backstretch to and from the track. You never knew where you would run into them. The horses seemed to love it and thrive on it.
In 1981, the Japanese had inaugurated the rich Japan Cup, which drew top-class international fields, including the best from the U.S. and Europe, but starting with their big superstar Deep Impact in 1996, the Japanese became so invincible on their home turf, winning the last 17 runnings, the foreign horses stopped coming. Two magnificent fillies, Gentildonna and Almond Eye, each won two Japan Cups and went to Dubai and captured the Dubai Sheema Classic and Dubai Turf, respectively
In 2012, Orfevre, winner of Japan’s Triple Crown the year before, looked a sure winner of the Pix de l’Arc de Triomphe, opening a clear lead in deep stretch, only to suddenly veer in sharply and was beaten a neck in the final stride, while finishing seven lengths ahead of the third horse.
While three attempts at the Kentucky Derby failed, these were far from their best 3-year-olds. Meanwhile, Japan’s world dominance continued to grow, capped off with two Breeders’ Cup victories in 2021 and countless stakes wins on the last two Dubai World Cup and Saudi Cup cards, including both the Dubai World Cup and Saudi Cup in 2023 and the past two runnings of the UAE Derby and Dubai Sheema Classic, in which the winner Equinox broke the course record.
We have no idea how the three Japanese horses will do in the Kentucky Derby, but we do know that one of them, Derma Sotogake, looks to be the most talented one they’ve sent and should be taken very seriously. It’s been a long road, but the Japanese have arrived and we better be prepared, even in the Kentucky Derby.
I heard Disarm is going with Rosario….all out to qualify not for me..
No Matthew, not for me either.
Steve & co….check out Saudi Crown, winning his debut in the Keeneland seventh today…..when he got a left hand prompt he took off, after chasing solid fractions, by Always Dreaming out of a Tapit mare, taking after his dam side he’s a big grey….I was very impressed..
Just watched the reply, yes, impressive win.
Very nice debut. Always Dreaming hasn’t done particularly well so far with his first crop, but this one looks promising. SIXTH race at Keeneland.
I was looking out for the Tapit colt who didn’t do much then Saudi Crown exploded down the track.
That one is a full brother to a two-time G1 winner (filly American Story, at 7f). Watch out next time!
That one being the Tapit colt.
They’re close Roberta, both have the same dam – American Story, but Magic Tap (colt) is by Tapit while American Gal (filly and is the two-time Grade 1 winner) is by Concord Point (son of Tapit) and out of American Story.
Thanks, Davids. I knew that, but my fingers and brain got in the way!
Yes Roberta, I know you knew. Ha ha I just wrote the pedigree in case others may be confused a little.
I’m thinking that Steve could manage a Derby Dozen and not leave off any horse that has a reasonable chance of winning (assuming he omits Skinner and Mandarin Hero due to current ineligibility). I don’t see any serious knocks against four colts: Angel of Empire, Hit Show, Practical Move, and Tapit Trice. I left Forte out of the top rung because he’ll be the overbet favorite (no fun in that!) and because he was too far back for my taste at the top of the stretch in the Fl Derby. Verifying is close to the top. Also in consideration will be Lord Miles, Rocket Can, Two Phil’s, and Kingsbarns. That’s 10 contenders right there. Skinner and Mandarin Hero would make it an even dozen.
I have a serious question about how Continuar earned an invitation from the Japan Road to the Derby, but will leave it for another time.
Roberta Greevey:
Wishing you the best of luck in the Derby.
Regarding Forte, Gulfstream is a very quirky track at 1 1/8 miles on the dirt. The horses come up to the first turn very quickly and it is very difficult to win from an outside post position.
Some of the 3 year old horses who have won from outside posts in the Florida Derby include: Barbaro, Big Brown, and Forte. And Gun Runner won in the handicap division from an outside post in the Pegasus World Cup.
To win at 1 1/8 miles from an outside post on the dirt in a grade one at Gulfstream, the horse has to be a FREAK.
Terri, I borrowed this information from someone who does their homework preparing stats.
Since 2003 (2020 not included):
Horses that won the Derby ran their last race came from Gulfstream and Santa Anita with 5 each and Oaklawn 4.
Horses that prepped at these tracks and won the Derby came from Oaklawn 8, Gulfstream and Santa Anita 7 each and Keeneland 5.
My thoughts are that if this trend continues this year, we can anticipate that the most probable winner will be Forte, Practical Move, Angel in Empire or Triple Trice.
This probability list however does not include Derma Sotogake and Mandarin Hero (should he manage to get
I totally agree with your statement about Forte.
Thanks Lynda King for the stats on the winners from the Kentucky Derby coming from Santa Anita, Gulfstream, and Oaklawn.
It should be a very interesting year for the Triple Crown races. There are too many coincidences between 1973 and 2023 ignored. The top horse is a Virginia bred. Forte has the stamina influence from his dam’s family much like Big Red. He’s related to Princequillo through his dam’s family. And Blame was bred at Claiborne Farm. The only horse that isn’t represented is Sham.
Thank you, Terri Z. Yes, there are definite quirks in Gulfstream dirt racing. I’ve enjoyed the races there for decades. But there really aren’t many 9f dirt races carded at GP. In the more common 8.5f races, horses in the middle posts seem to have the advantage. However, all of the Ky Derby winners from the Fl Derby (since it became a final prep) have been on the lead at the stretch call or very close to the leader (no more than 1.5 lengths behind) in the FD. If I were betting, I wouldn’t like to have doubts at odds of 5-2 in the Kentucky Derby. That said, I would love to see Forte win the Derby.
Those Derby winners were all front runners or just off the pace, in the Florida Derby. Forte, as a mid pack horse, would never have been as close as they were at the 3/4 mile mark, therefore wasn’t as close at the stretch call. It’s commonly accepted that he had a bad post and frankly, the jockey compensated by dropping back, which may have been the wrong decision. If he drops back much in the KD, he’ll probably lose.
Okay. But name a Ky Derby winner that wasn’t first or second or within 2.5 lengths at the stretch call of its final prep. Take your time because you’ll need to go far back in derby history. I’ll give you a hint: Gavrilo Princip. Ha ha!
There’s still 1/8 mi. left at the stretch call, you can be be 4 l. back and still win a race.
Who set the within 2 1/2 l., or 1st or 2nd parameter? Is that some official measuring stick? He was 2 3/4 l. back, close, and had a tougher than average trip. He didn’t hang on the turn but took some time to get going, then poured it on and had a final fraction of roughly 12.5, which is better than average. The problem started at the first turn and didn’t get ironed out until 50 yards before the finish.
I know you mentioned all this before, but I can’t remember where these parameters came from. Forte was too far back at the first turn last time. I was concerned to hear Ortiz say he thought he would clear the other horses but he didn’t, why didn’t he? I’m inclined to blame Ortiz for the horse’s crazy trip, where he could have moved him up on the back stretch and didn’t. But Forte is stuck with him, he’s overcome horses and humans all along and I hope he does it again. I’ve been a fan since just before the Hopeful Stakes.
Oh…also, Orb had a running style similar to Forte and he was 3rd by 1 at the stretch call of the Florida Derby.
Thanks Roberta Greevey, I am glad that you added Orb. By the way, the undercard at the Pegasus is a great day for horses running at longer distances. I am so glad for the influence that the late H. Allen Jerkens had and has continued to have to have races for stayers in New York and especially in Florida.
And isn’t it unusual for Forte to have the same sort of breeding that Secretariat had. His dam’s family, from his dam’s sire Blame and his descendants from Roberto have the stamina. And Violence the sire of Forte, has the speed.
And what a coincidence that Forte is a Virginia bred. And even more unusual is that Claiborne Farm bred Blame, considering that is where Secretariat stood.
Continuar won the Road to Japan Cattleya race and received 10 points. (Steve explained this earlier).
He placed 3rd in the UAE Derby and received 30 points.
The winners of the Road to Europe, Road to Japan and UAE Derby are invited to race in the Kentucky Derby.
The connections for both Derma Sotogake and Continuor accepted the invitation, others who had points on both European and Japan Roads and the UAE did not accept the invitation.
Basically, as I understand it, three gates are set aside for contenders from the European Road and Japan Road and UAE Derby.
The Japanese horses swept the UAE Derby this year, one, two, three and four.
Hi, Lynda. Here’s the thing about the invitation to Continuar. The main point repeated time and again over the years was that the Japan (and European) Road is distinctly separate from the regular Road to the Derby. To the best of my knowledge, it has only been in the past 2 years that points on the “American” Road could be credited to a horse’s total in the Japan road. So the 30 points for Continuar from the UAE Derby would transfer to his Japan total, which was 10 points following his win in the first Japan race.
With that in mind, the top points horse for the Japan Road according to CD was Derma Sotogake, whose 120-pt total included a win in the second Japan race and a win in the UAE Derby. Why then did the invitation not go to Derma as the Japan points leader? Were the connections given a choice? If so, why? The second highest point total in the Japan Road was Perriere with 56 points, based on 3rd-place in the second Japan race, a win in the third Japan race, and a 4th-place finish in the UAE Derby. Perriere’s owner decided against a trip to the Derby. If just Japan’s Road races were considered, Continuar’s 10 points would not have been enough to be in the top 4. The points leaders for just the Japan races were Mitono O (40, not nominated), Perriere (36, nominated), Derma Sotogake (20, nominated), and Hero Call (16, not nominated).
Derma Sotogake and Mandarin Hero have shown than Japanese horses can ship to races on the regular Road to the Derby and earn points leading to Derby entry. It makes little sense for regular Road points to be included in Japan Road totals. How does the Japan Road increase interest among Japanese fans and bettors more than having Japan-based horses going to the Santa Anita Derby or the UAE Derby? How about just ending the Japan road while doing everything possible to bring horses from Japan to the “”American” Road?
I’m in 100% agreement with you, Roberta. Get rid of the Japan and European Roads to the Derby. Let foreign connections race their horses in the Kentucky Derby preps here in the USA, in addition to the UAE and Dubai Derbys, if they’re interested in participating. I mean, I find it difficult to follow the point standings of the Japan and European qualifiers. The foreign point earnings are not even published as the US (CD) points are. I also agree with you regarding Continuar getting the Japan Road bid over Derma Sotogake. I’m under the impression that only one horse each from Europe and Japan is allowed to enter the Derby through these venues. If so, then Derma Sotogake should get the Japan Road invite over Continuar. My head is starting to spin just trying to sort this out.
Finally, although it doesn’t look good, I hope that Mandarin Hero somehow makes it into the starting lineup for the Derby. He deserves it.
I hope MH gets in, too. But he’ll need FIVE defections. Yikes!
The UAE Derby is a qualification event in the main “Road to the Kentucky Derby”. The winner gets 100 points. hmmm
100 points is enough to qualify. This leaves the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby. Perriere who was second passed on accepting into the race. This left the connections of Continuar to accept. A good decision since he had performed well in Japan, Saudi Arabia and UAE.
Mandarin Hero is stuck in outside of left field.
Connections need to start thinking about The Preakness – which would be a really nice race for him.
BrudderA, I so appreciate your bringing clarity to these outside “Roads” as a way of qualifying for the Derby.
I did some additional reading last night and learned that the connections for Continuar decided to take advantage of transferring the 30 points earned in the UAE Derby to the Road To Japan.
That explains why initially the the other full leaderboard points (Bloodhorse for one) showed 40 points for Continuar, reference to Japan Road Cattleya race and the subsequent invitation.
It was the other lists that I looked at.
The official Kentucky Derby Points list (Kentucky Derby dot com) did not show the points, only “invitation”.
Had the Kentucky Derby not changed the point distribution from the top 4 fibshers to the top 5 in the prep races, Mandarin Hero would have won 50 points from the Santa Anita and would be in the Derby.
Somewhere in this thread someone pointed out that if KD wanted to give points to the 5th place they could have shaved the points off 1st place (change to 90 fromm 100) and the winner would still be guaranteed a gate with 90 and 2nd place with 50.
I think this was a poor decision by KD to add points for a 5th place finish and wonder why they did.
Just not optimistic at this point that there will enough defections or scratches for Mandarin Hero to get in.
I watched an interview with someone who is connected to Mandarin Hero a couple of days ago. He said that a run in the Preakness was in the works if the Derby did not work out.
In the meantime Mandarin Hero (he was being hand walked in the quarantine barn paddock at Santa Anita) was following the regular training protocols that Japan has.
Roberta, granted the point calculations for these “roads” or routes to the Derby are complicated.
As Steve mentioned either on this post or the one before, Continuar earned his invitation to the Kentucky Derby based on the Cattleya when the question was asked of him.
If you read the history of the Road to Japan, you will learn that the reason for it being added was because of the interest in Lani (by Tapit) who finished 9th I think in the Derby and 3rd in the Belmont. Lani won the UAE Derby, that was his ticket to the KD.
Another reason for the Japan Road is the handle generated by the Japanese bettors. They love horse racing. The stands are filled for almost race and they bet more money than Americans do.
Right they are thrilled to have 3 horses qualify for the Derby. Winning the Kentucky Derby, the BC Classic and the Arc are at the top of their list to win.
I think that after Mandarin Hero who came out of the NAR, lost the SAD by a nostril that more NAR horses will travel to America and run in the SAD. The JRA is primarily turf and races are held at the ten major tracks whereas the NAR is primarily dirt and races are held at multiple race tracks around the country. The JRA is self supporting and the NAR is government funded (that is what a representative of NAR said during an interview a couple of days ago).
I actually find spreading points out to the top five finishers this year in our prep races is more troubling than the the Japan Road.
Lynda, Continuar didn’t earn the invitation based on his Cattelya win. He got in for his total of 40 points (10 in the Cattelya, 30 in the non-Japan Road UAE Derby). I agree with you that Mandarin Hero’s accomplishment will create greater interest in bringing runners to America. I also agree that the points distribution is troubling, but so is how the Japan Road is administered.
Churchill Downs wanted to be very inclusive of Japanese entries! They succeeded.
They will no doubt review their decision of how they allocated the points for qualification and they may tweek it again.
However, since its inception the Road to the Kentucky has been strategically successful. Both for horse trainers, owners, and above all those who follow the sport!
Very interesting thread you started, Roberta. As I was dropping off to sleep last night, I was counting potential Derby winners in my head — and came up with FIVE, all standouts that would not surprise me or anyone else with a victory. They’ve all run similar Beyer/Brisnet figures and all won or were within a neck of winning a grade 1 race.
They are: Tapit Trice, Forte, Practical Move, Two Phil’s and Verifying. I also put Derma Sotogake right up there with the American performers, as well as Mandarin Hero if he gets in. Given that Angel of Empire has two major stakes wins at two different tracks, that’s a total of EIGHT who wouldn’t surprise me.
Even my list of toss-outs isn’t long. I count only six of those: Lord Miles, Disarm, Confidence Game, Rocket Can, Continuar, and Wild on Ice. Any of the above could end up in the superfecta, of course.
A lot can happen in the next three weeks, but right now I’m zeroing in on the one-two finishers in the Blue Grass, Tapit Trice and Verifying.
Thanks, Ms Blacktype. That’s a nice exacta. The only worries I have about Verifying are that he may bounce from the big improvement in the Blue Grass (he went from an 89 Brisnet figure in the Rebel to a 102 in the BGS), and that he lost the lead in the BGS (ever so grudgingly!).
Roberta, what would handicapping the Derby if there was no room for self doubt? LOL.
I wouldn’t mind finding out! Ha ha!
Roberta, we’re in a liminal period at the moment. You’re not really sure of the makeup nor what post positions each colt will be allotted. Watching the Kentucky Derby Morning Works Show can give you confidence, or concern, on horses you like but it’s always fun to watch.
Hopefully, Skinner gets in to the field as he appears to have a much better chance than quite a few but everyone dreams to have a runner in the Kentucky Derby. Stay cool under pressure. Ha ha There’s a long way to go yet.
Davids, you got me off my duff to find my dusty book of words by Messrs. Merriam and Webster. A liminal period indeed!
Ha ha In Anthropology, the ‘passage into manhood/womanhood ’ is the liminal (or threshold) phase, often the central experience of the rite, is always performed in a secluded area, away from the encroachments of other societal members but liminal relates to any in-between period.
Sometimes it’s difficult for me to find the secluded area for “passage.”
Admittedly I need to check facts rather than relying on my memory especially on races from 20 years ago.
It was not the SA Derby for Candy Ride, it was the Pacific Classic and a track record was set in the race by Candy Ride that I believe stands to this day.
I appreciate the correction.
Candy Ride came up from South America unbeaten, and he won all seven of his starts….won a turf mile in fast time, before winning the Pacific Classic, neatly going down to his nose, at the break…recovering then taking it to Madaglia d’Oro, who was the heavy favorite….at the quarter pole Julie Krone engaged Jerry Bailey and it was a big victory for MacAnally’s horse, one of the best performances of my lifetime—he came away from a very good horse…
Totally off topic I know but this morning I watched a replay of the Japanese equivalent race to the 2000 Guineas, the Satsuki Sho.
The race was won by Sol Oriens. He debuted in November as a two year old and this was his third race, now 3 for 3.
Sol Oriens is by Kitsian Black who also sired Equinox who wowed everyone at the recent Dubai World Cup Sheema Classic and set a new record in the process.
Kitsian Black’s grandsire was Sunday Silence.
Sol Oriens dam, Skia is by Motivator whose dam Out West was by Gone West.
Sol Orien broke somewhat slowly and was at the back of the 17 horse field. When he made his move and could not get through the pack his jockey took him 12 wide amd won the race easily.
I bet on the freaky pace horse ..race set up for a closer and the winner just blew past them! Not a big animal probably more of a turf horses, a good turf horse!..
Hope Skinner backs in.
Hi Mike, been awhile I think since you posted.
I hope Skinner gets in as well.
Been reading mixed reviews on Disarm’s race today.
Wondering what Steve will have to say on Monday.
Personally not sure what to make of it.
Was the goal to get third and save something for the Derby or was he tiring or sluggish or off form.
Must be a tough spot to be in, the waiting to see if your horse is in or not.
I reckon Steve will have to seriously adjusted his list for those that are situated on the bubble – Skinner, Mandarin Hero.
Also I’m not sure about Disarm. Looking for his assessment after his Lexington run.
Another list adjustment might be necessary after the field is draw and who is the “Also Eligible”.
I’m not sure I understand the general fascination with Disarm over the last several months. A fast maiden win, which is a common thing in racing, followed by several average efforts with minor excuses. Of course, i’ve been wrong once or twice.
I agree with you, Todd Vaughn. This is now three straight races in which Disarm couldn’t get closer than 4 lengths to the lead at the stretch call. With a solid win yesterday, he would have been a Derby contender. Now’s he’s just a “coulda been a contender.”
I think he’s just saving ground for when it counts. I’m thinking of loading up on him at a price. I’m usually on the wrong horse fwiw, lol.
Ha ha! We all are usually on the wrong horse, Greg.
A gain of 3/4 length by 22-1 Dennington would have denied Disarm the 6 points for 3rd place. Crikey!
He was all out, to qualify they should shrug off the Derby fever and aim for Pimlico….
Well that’s it folks.
Disarm gets in with ten points. He will be evaluated after the race and a decision will be made for Derby per Mr Winchel
Jace’s Road now an AE.
Skinner, Cyclone Mischief, Major Dude all ahead of Mandarin Hero.
Mandarin Hero still in California. Not shipping until the final field determined (after defections). Preakness is still possible if he is shut out of Derby. Still being walked. Serious works will come closer to race day. That is the way Japan trains.
Feel kind of bad for the Albaughs. They have a good reputation as a fine racing family.
Angel of Empire put in a really good work today (saw video). Looks fast and strong.
In Italian by Dubawi wins Jenny Wiley. I had picked With The Moonlight by Frankel to win.
Hear a murmur of a rumor that Arabian Lion might be entered in a Derby under card.
Have a great Sunday everyone. Sunny and warm here today. More rain snd possible thunderstorms on Sunday (ugh).
Thanks Lynda. Yep, now here comes the defections….what will the over/under be? What has been the average been the last few years? If I rember correctly wasn’t five horses defected from the KD early? So much drama.
Excuse me, from the 2021 Derby….
John, for years I kept a spreadsheet on the points including scratches and defections.
My laptop crashed right before the 2022 Derby and I lost the sheet.
I can tell you that when King Fury scratched, and because of Covid the Road to Japan and European Road did not attend. That along with King Fury opened 3 slots.
Maybe someone else has the answer.
Sorry I cannot give you more information.
All the Road to the Kentucky Derby qualification since inception is well documented in Wikipedia.
BrudderA, thank you.
I have spent a fair amount of time learning about the Roads on days here when the torrential rain storms have kept me from being outside.
Your suggestions have certainly been most helpful.
From the DRF: “In 2022, eight qualified horses weren’t entered in the Derby, and in 2021 the number was a whopping 28. The last horse in, Brooklyn Strong, appeared to have no chance of running three weeks before the race. The only comparable year to this one was 2019, when every qualified horses was entered in the race.”
28!!!! That’s insane. As for the last sentence, it’s much to early to compare this year to 2019 or any other year.
Somewhat misleading.
Two horses who qualified for the 2019 Kentucky Derby were scratched.
Omaha Beach with 137.5 points was diagnosed with a trapped epiglottis that required surgery.
Haikal with 70 points was scratched due to a hoof abscess.
True. But they were entered in the Derby, then scratched. The DRF story was about horses that dropped out prior to entries.
Bob is personna non grata at Churchill….
First Mission ran a good race in the Lexington today despite being crowded along the rail by Arabian Lion, riden by none other than Irad (the Intimidator) Ortiz Jr. Arabian Lion set the pace and First Mission came along on the inside at the 8th pole to challenge. When Irad looked over and saw Luis Saez moving up on his inside, he moved Arabian Lion in toward First Mission to crowd him on the rail. I know this is regarded by some as clever riding, but why can’t Irad just ride his horse straight in an attempt to win instead of always trying to interfere with another horse? I’m sick of his bullying tactics.
Nevertheless, it was an exciting finish by two game horses with First Mission prevailing by 3/4 length. It looks like the Preakness might be the next stop for First Mission?
Couldn’t agree more, Dewey. I thought Arabian Lion would have actually had a better chance of winning if the intimidation wasn’t implied. Arabian Lion wouldn’t have won anyway. I’d be interested to know what the stewards would have done had there’d been more crowding and First Mission was beaten. It’s ugly to watch.
Stewards probably would not have taken any action if Arabian Lion had won. Irad gets away with a lot on the track.
On the other hand, Luis Saez has turned into a very good rider. He will give his horse every chance to show what he/she has and will use the whip sparingly letting the horses run on their courage. He’ll tap them a few times, but in deep stretch, he’ll mostly wave the whip and hand ride. And, talk about never giving up, did you see his ride on Tarabi in the last race at Keeneland today? Luis practically carried Tarabi over the finish line, ha.
I’m feeling a little more confident in Tapit Trice’s chances in the Derby because he will have his buddy, Luis, in the irons. A good fit for both horse and rider. Fingers crossed for a good post position.
He does, Dewey, and most commentators/fans wonder where the stewards are? The French stewards would straighten him out quick smart along with the owners for that matter. Dirty pool impresses no one. Why he does it is beyond me, he’s an excellent jockey in most other respects.
Agree with you about Luis Saez, he keeps getting better and better. He’s perfect for Tapit Trice and yes, fingers crossed for Tapit Trice to get a good post position. Imagine Tapit Tice launching himself down the Churchill Downs home straight in full flight, extending and extending, as he mows them down.
Yes, I’ve been dreaming of that scenario for the past few days. Be still, my heart. Bada boom!
Yes, indeed Dewey. Be still my beating heart.
Having reviewed the Lexington past performances … it’s far stronger than I had envisioned! I thought Disarm would get bet way down but I do not think so….if Frankie wins on Empirestrikesfast he will have a Preakness mount, and he may….Frankie put up a terrific ride from the 12 post today, for Shug….got over and saved ground, came from 10th over a turf course that seems to favor speed–and survived a hard bump to get up—the man is still the man..
Agreed. It’s better than what I first thought, too! But Disarm is still the class of the field. I’ll pick the longshot Prairie Hawk, who I mentioned yesterday…and you replied, I think, in the affirmative. Ha ha!
Don’t like the post but Arabian Lion intrigues me in the Lexington Stakes. Baffert’s Preakness Stakes horse?
Very few non-stakes winners win the Preakness. AL needs this one. I don’t see it happening, but I’m wrong in the vast majority of races. Ha ha!
Roberta, Arabian Lion almost was. Ha ha Unlucky not to win all things considered. Fun race. Will Disarm really attempt the Kentucky Derby on that performance?
Well Davids, they rushed him into the Lexington, so they’ll probably rush him into the Kentucky Derby— he’s not a large framed animal, and if they are not careful they can ruin a nice horse….I thought Irad put up a good ride by getting out and over without spending much horse, they went wide and I could tell Irad was letting him stay in stride—agree with you about the jerking him down to the rail, he probably hurt his horse’s momentum some, but it also may have worked some, as Saez’s mount didn’t exactly spurt clear by much….its not a good look—Churchill does not want any mishaps, no “riding other’s horses”….it’s the wrong race to risk bad things….
Yes, Matthew, Irad Ortiz Jr did an excellent job by getting across while being extremely watchful not to interfere with others behind him. I wish he had just let American Lion fight the battle and ride, he’s an excellent jockey and doesn’t need to use those type of antics. As you say, jerking American Lion to the rail stopped the horse’s natural momentum going forward gained nothing but derision.
I think American Lion is Preakness bound, as is First Mission no doubt, agree with you about giving them extra time but these are the races the connotations buy the colts for.
Agreed!
Yeah…wow! I thought Arabian Lion would have some company up front. Barring injury, Disarm will be entered in the Derby. I’m as sure of that as I was of Prairie Hawk winning the Lexington.
The Lexington Stakes looks a tough race to me, half a dozen chances. Good luck to Frankie Dettori, racing in Europe will lose a lot when he retires, very sad day.
Did you catch Scylla’s win at Keeneland, Race 6, full sister to Tacitus looks stardom bound written all over her. A better pedigree you won’t find. Good to see Barber Road win in Race 7 at Keeneland as well.
Matthew W, you would not get away with Bbquing burgers here in the South. LOL
We call that grilling…hamburgers, hot dogs, steak etc.
BBQ here is cooked pulled pork. Where I am from in Virginia the real apple cider vinegar, tomato based sauce is cooked with the cooked pulled pork. A side of coleslaw is a must with the sandwich. I even put a spoon full of slaw on my sandwich.
Haha I stand corrected! Speaking of real BBQ …in little Orange, CA—we have a treasure, of a BBQ place! Called “Hickory and Spice”, cooked by a father/son team named Brandt….the father traveled cross country and won many of the national contests, and he makes the best brisket….I told the son yesterday that it’s nice to have a treasure like that….knife not needed…
MatthewW, there different styles of BBQ depending on what region of the country you live in.
In Virginia and North Carolina the sauce recipes go back to the Colonial era.
“Hickory and Spice” sounds really good.
Sure you know that the type of wood that is used to cook the pork has a lot to do with the flavor.
Little hole in the wall restaurant about 12 miles from me cooks the pork on an outside grill with pecan wood.
Here in Georgia you put the sauce on after the pork is cooked. The sauce is sweeter here but then most every food is sweeter here, even cornbread. Georgians put so much sugar in ice tea it will make your teeth hurt, HA HA. They also boil peanuts instead of roasting (yuck). Also fry turkey in deep fryers rather than roasting in the oven (again, yuck). I strongly dislike fried foods. I also use herbs and spices when I cook, very little if any salt.
If you ever come east to Virginia, Maryland and Delaware Chesapeake Bay area (called the Delmarva Peninsula), you have to try softshell crab cooked in beer and Old Bay seasoning.
Funny this barbecue topic should come up today. I’m going in the kitchen in a minute to make Eastern NC-style BBQ sauce for a leftover pork roast (cooked on the bone, so it should work well). I plan to add the meat in some of the sauce and let it simmer awhile before devouring with a side of cole slaw and more on the sandwich.
And about those peanuts — I have a Canadian friend who always called them “biled” after encountering them on a trip down the Blue Ridge. Biled peanuts!
With salt, of course. Salty is how I would describe this afternoon’s Lexington Stakes. Should be a good betting race for those who indulge.
I had to laugh when I read your comment.
Being from NC you are probably familiar with Dukes.
They came out with a line of BBQ sauces recently.
I purchased a bottle of the Carolina Style. Have a pork roast in the freezer that I am going to try it on.
When I was a growing up my cousin who was like a brother to me and I planted a few peanuts most every year. We roasted them in the oven in my Aunt’s wood cookstove. Only time we were allowed to have soft drinks was on the weekends. We would put our peanuts in our Coca-Colas. Back then of course soft drinks were in glass bottles.
“Biled”, that’s funny.
Oh, I know Dukes, but it was never my favorite mayonnaise. (I think my Mom bought a cheaper brand!) We never put peanuts in our Co-colas, but I’ve seen it done. I imagine it was delicious.
Kudos for Dukes.
Matthew, how funny, we live just up the street from you in Brea! Small world as they say! Love the Old Town area of Orange, it’s a really nice little place. Thanks for the tip on Hickory and Spice, we’ll give it a try.
And I agree with you, they should NOT give out points for 5th! (unless it’s my future wager horse of course!! LOL) Hopefully they’ll go back to the previous points system?!
If you ever see a tall old guy with a white beard walking a grey Great Dane in the circle….yell “Hi”…..be sure to ask for BBQ sauce cuz they don’t give any—and they don’t use vinegar—best brisket you ever had….
I’ll definitely keep my eyes open for you!
Mandarin Hero finishes 2nd by a nose in the G1 Santa Anita Derby, earning 40 points in the regular road to the Derby; he may yet move up in the standings. Derma Sotogake wins the G2 UAE Derby, earning 100 points in the regular road to the Derby. That is how Japan-based horses should qualify for the Kentucky Derby. As much as I still believe that a 2nd-place finish in an established and productive Derby prep is worth more than a win in an unproductive Derby prep, I strongly hold to the belief that the separate Japan and Europe roads to the Derby have been failures and should be eliminated.
They changed the points distribution from top four to top five, and they screwed it up! Used to be a SA Derby 2nd got you 50 points, instead of shaving 10 points from 2nd place they could have shaved 10 points from the winner, 90 points gets you in for certain, so they give the fifth place horse points now but it pushes Mandarin Hero out….
No last prep race should reward 5th place….
Yes, Matthew. I hadn’t even thought about the 100 points for a win. DOH! That’s an unnecessarily high number, now that you mention it. I don’t remember a 2nd-place finish getting a horse 50 points, but the system has been changed a few times over the years. I may have forgotten.
Prior to 2023, that in Championship series events – Second Leg (which includes the Santa Anita Derby) has only provided 40 points – NOT 50 points!
The change really has been that the third placed horse in all events has been increased – and if a horse has been competing in the earlier events then that will help to the point total.
I think 5th place is a welcome addition. But what might be worth reviewing is that 2nd placed in those Championship series events – Second Leg also have an increase to those 50 points.
I would also like to add some events, especially some 7 furlong sprint races which previously to the installment of the Road to the Kentucky Derby qualification process provided excellent preparation to the Big Dance.
Roberta I totally agree about MH getting shafted by the new point distribution system. Maybe they will change it back after seeing how this year left out the second place runner of the SA Derby. That should never be the case.
El Kabong, I agree. A 2nd in a G1 finale should always be enough. And usually 30 is enough, sometimes more than enough. Let’s hope for some connections coming to their senses and withdrawing their currently eligible horses. I never like to see horses taken off the list because of illness or injury. And let’s hope they DO make a sensible adjustment to the system.
Agree as well, a 2nd in a Grade 1 prep race should be an automatic entry into the Derby. Hopefully, CDI will amend their point system next year there are so many anomalies that need readjusting.
It always seemed an obvious error to me that 40 points for second in the major preps was too low. You miss out on going to the Derby by a head bob is ridiculous.
Edited post.
Confidence Game worked this morning at CHD. Watched video. He was moving very nice and very effortless.
Mile in 1.38.20.
Good article on Thursday’s edition on Blood Horse with Kent.
Guess I have to give kudos to a trainer who thinks outside of the box when it comes to training rather than the cookie cutter approach.
Good luck to all the colts in the Lexington and safe trips for all. Good luck on everyone’s bets.
Looking forward to the return of Modern Games this weekend in the Makers Mile.
Good luck also to both Clairiere and Secret Oath in the Apple Blossom. Hard for me to decide between these two, like them both.
Good luck to the Frankel filly, With The Moonlight, in the Jenny Wiley.
Congratulations to Equinox on being number one on the Longines Worlds Best Racehorse. Simply put, one of the most beautiful racehorses I have seen in a long time. He simply takes my breath away.
Have a great weekend everyone!
Thank you again Bruce for the correction.
If anyone can surprise with a horse it is certainly Keith D. I have always felt that Candy Ride would someday have a Derby winner, but so far it hasn’t happened. I was hoping for Shared Belief to be that horse, but it was not to be. Confidence Game will certainly be a good price if he is entered and also probably mostly forgotten in the betting, which seems to be when Desormeaux can surprise. Tough to tell if this horse will be fully ready off ten weeks off, but should the track come up sloppy that day I will certainly use him. Anything can and does happen in the Kentucky Derby.
I am guessing that the record that Candy Ride set in the Santa Anita Derby still stands?
Was a big fan of Shared Belief and it was heartbreaking when he died.
What year did Candy Ride win the Santa Anita Derby?
David
Track record for Candy Ride at Del Mar in the Pacific Classic (10f). His son Sidney’s Candy won the SA Derby, but not a stakes record.
One more edit, Keith not Kent.
I am glad Disarm only needs a first, second or third to leapfrog a few to get into the CD starting gate on Derby Day. So far I like Two Phil’s, Forte, Derma and Disarm on Derby Day. Some leaning toward Hit Show too. Tough year, so many good horses with a real chance.
Confidence Game worked this morning at CHD. Watched video. He was moving very nice and very effortless.
Mile in 1.38.20.
Good article on Thursday’s edition on Blood Horse with Kent.
Guess I have to give kudos to a trainer who thinks outside of the box when it comes to training rather than the cookie cutter approach.
This might sound like I am casting shade on Mr Baffert but I have to ask the question.
Why is it OK that Arabian Knight is entered in the Lexington with only two career starts, last raced January 28 when he won the Southwest Stakes and has had no works since March 09 (per Equibase) but Kent’s approach is not?
Good luck to all the colts in the Lexington and safe trips for all. Good luck on everyone’s bets.
Looking forward to the return of Modern Games this weekend in the Makers Mile.
Good luck also to both Clairiere and Secret Oath in the Apple Blossom. Hard for me to decide between these two, like them both.
Good luck to the Frankel filly, With The Moonlight, in the Jenny Wiley.
Congratulations to Equinox on being number one on the Longines Workds Best Racehorse. Simply put, one of the most beautiful racehorses I have seen in a long time. He simply takes my breath away.
Have a great weekend everyone!
Hi Lynda, just to clarify, it’s not Arabian Knight who is entered in the Lexington, it’s Arabian Lion…..also Mr. Baffert.
I know, too many Arabian names out there! LOL
Bruce, thank you for the correction.
I appreciate it!
Ooh! Tampa Bay Derby is a key race, with three runners having returned and all three winning: Tapit Trice in the Blue Grass, Lord Miles in the Wood, and Zydeceaux in the OBS Sophomore Stakes. In the Lexington, Prairie Hawk is 15-1 in the morning line. He finished 4th from post 12 in the TBD, just ahead of stablemate Lord Miles. Hmmm
Praire Hawk was wide the entire trip….
Remember when we were being told that the Tampa Bay Derby was one of the weakest preps, how quickly things can change in racing.
Yes. The horse has no control over the races in which he’s entered. There’s a decent chance the TB race could produce a Derby winner for the third time in 17 years. The Fountain of Youth has produced only one Derby winner in that period.
I love all your input on the Derby horses. I have not made up my mind 100% yet.
Eva is for sure all in with Practical Move!
Does anyone here believe that Desormeaux will enter Confidence Game in the derby? I don’t.
Worked 1:00.40 for 5 on April 8th (5/28)…..don’t know….probably the Preakness is the goal now.
Don’t Tell My Wife Stables posted on their Facebook page earlier today that after a great deal of thought and consideration that Confidence Game will run in the Derby.
I’m not sure I would trust any statements from a stable named Don’t Tell My Wife. Ha ha!
You are correct John, he did breeze on the 8th at CHD
Addionally Keith and Don’t Tell My Wife Stables ,made the decision to bypass the Lexington and go directly to CHD to train up for the Derby
I’m hopeful Confindence Game runs in the Derby, I’ve got several $20.00 exactas on Hit Show and Confidence Game.
One set of exactas would pay $27,850 if Hit Show finished 1st, and Confidence Game finsihed 2nd.
The other set of exactas would pay $26,642 if Confidence Game finsihed 1st and Hit Show finished 2nd.
From everything that I’ve heard and read, Confidence Game will just train up for the Derby. Fingers crossed. 🙂
Bill, Ocean Reef Racing Syndicate has bought into Confidence Game (announced on April 03.
James Graham, who rode the colt in the Risen Star, will be up for the Derby.
I have several horse racing friends who have shares in the colt and they are very excited.
CG also has a lot of supporters because his dam is half sister to Zenyatta and because Ebby as she is called is owned by Jane Lyon (Flightline’s breeder) bred the colt.
Kent is Trainer and Bloodstock Agent for Don’t Tell My Wife Stables.
You might recall that My Boy Jack was campaigned by this same stable.
Ever year we seem to have a crowd favorite or sentimental favorite and Confidence Game seems to be the one this year.
As far as him actually running in the Derby, I think we all know that anything can happen between now and then.
Always the possibility for an injury, an illness, a hoof access that would result in a scratch. It has happened to the best of them.
As far as I know from the information coming from the owners, it is Game On for the Derby.
Guess many have an opinion as to whether or not he should run, but as usual, this is the decision of the owners and the trainer.
Thanks for the reply Lynda
Too bad your friends couldn’t talk you into having a few share of Confidence Game as well.
He got my attention with his impressive turn of foot in his Rebel Stakes win.
Bill, with the cost of hay, feed, vet care and farriers in this economy, not to mention the price of dog and cat food, I am doing well to pay for my little band of mares, most are rescues. Do wish I had the money though to buy a share of a Thoroughbred, just for fun. Maybe someday.
My horseracing friends are an amazing group of women!
Lynda the price of dog kibble has gone thru the roof! My wife buys pork roasts, when they drop to $.90/lb, puts several into the freezer and my Great Dane gets lots of meat like that, because her kibble—which is less than half her diet is getting up to the $2/lb range….
Real meat is perfect for dogs. Chicken is always cheap and I used to give a boneless/skinless thigh to my Suzy Q and her coat was thick and shinny. She’d get busy in the dirt digging herself a dirt hammock, face covered with dirt, white paws now brown, and a half our later that dirt had magically fallen off. I never in 9 years(a 5 year old rescue when I got her) had to bathe her. Just a good brush from time to time and a light thinning in the summer. Like most beagles she was not fond of water so a happy girl she was with just a good brush but keep that fir nice and shinny. A small amount of Flax seed oil mixed in to the kibble is also a good thing for their coat and joints.
El Kabong your Suzy Q was lucky to have you as her forever person!…My Blues is my barnacle, always with including twice last week at the DMV, right now we’re at the top of a park under a big tree BBQ-ing burgers! I’m smoking a cigar…reading the Sat Form…Blues is keeping both eyes on the meat—she’s getting a couple of burgers!..
That sounds like the perfect evening. Before Suzy Q I had another Beagle named Cosmo(his namesake is entered to run in the 10th at Oaklawn today). I spent many hours with that hound grilling in the backyard with him, a good cigar(love Fuentes), and some Cuban Jazz, Mongo Santamaria, Tito Puente etc. etc. I miss those days. I made burger bites for Mo, little hamburger balls, he loved them but he really loved grilled Salmon skin. I’d grill a fillet of salmon and slide the meat right off the skin, let it get crispy and then break it up into salmon skin crackers. You can’t spoil them enough while they’re here. Give Blues a good hug for me. I’m without a hound right now but that will change soon.
Okay. My question was, what do you believe will happen?, not what do the connections say at this time?
Roberta, as to whether Confidence Game runs in the Derby, I’ll believe it when I see it. I wish his connections would stop hemming and hawing and make a commitment one way or another.
If Confidence Game does run, I’d use him in the exotics only if the track is muddy.
I agree with you. Until he’s entered, I’m not optimistic.
Roberta, I think Conference Game will run. Read “The Blood-Horse” article “Trainer Desormeaux Weighs Options for Confidence Game” by Byron King dated March 2023, search for it on the website. Desormeaux basically says either the April 8 Blue Grass Stakes (G1) or April 15 Lexington Stakes (G3), or await the May 6 Kentucky Derby (G1) at Churchill Downs were all possibilities
I just think that something is amiss with CG. And nobody has EVER been successful with a long layoff before the derby, at least for 9 or 10 decades.
You may be right, Roberta. With that length of layoff I wouldn’t be consider him a major threat, just making up the numbers.
I know it a sucker bet but I have to go with Two Phil’s. My husband, of blessed memory, was a Phil. Everyone called him Philly. My son, whom I adore, is a Phil. How could I not back Two Phil’s. My long shot bet for sure. My trifecta, Tapit Trice, Two Phil’s and Forte. I will add Verifying to my mix.
He has a good angle so hes not a sucker bet. And you HAVE to bet him .
Sounds like a great play Deborah! Hope you cash! Good luck
Deborah, I am with Steve on Two Phil’s. He would be my guess for a long shot winning. Box him with a few other horses in an exacta, it pays better and he can run first or second.
He’s my play too Deborah. Lets both cash big.
Coming out of the best prep race, looking like he wanted more after crossing the wire.
He’s won at Churchill. Won in the mud, if it rains.
I will have $100 Win, $100 Place at a minimum. At 20-1+, I think that’s a smart bet.
I’m going to make a stand, with two longshots, Skinner and Mage…..Skinner because he came wide, was bumped out of the gate and at around the 1/8 pole….and most of all because he upgraded his Beyer number, where the two big favorites failed to…..Mage because he is a speed type that had to qualify by running against type, getting (valuable) experience—he is due for a better break, after last year he might find himself at the front end of a softer pace—I’ve cashed in the plus probably 8 times, in around 40 Derby wagers, three times I won big—example 1989 turned $153 into $5120……also won big in 1993 and 2012—-this year reminds me of 2012 some, so many contenders…..it’s one thing to pick the right horses, another thing to bet it right, example: in 2012 I liked I’ll Have Another who was 15-1….but when I saw the Oaks entries— the three big favorites drew the 1,2,4 posts, instead of betting IHA to win I played a big “all”-IHA double, thinking a longshot would win The Oaks and one did (13-1)….the pace was taxing…..so I have my two longshots now need to fashion a wager around them‐–Angel of Empire looks live, Forte looks live….I like Practical Move too….and the big grey…..but there’s time to decide, works to watch, gallops to watch, and Haskin–whose advice is invaluable—everybody likes the 2023 chalk, but across the board chalk finishes are the exception, in the Kentucky Derby…..
As you will read on Monday, Skinner got the fastest Thoro-Gaph number in the race.
Ah, ha, thanks Steve. The Thoro-Graph numbers confirm the eye’s view/opinion of the race.
Steve, can you let us know the top 3-5 horses who got the best Thoro-graphs in order this year?
Lots of possibilities. This will be a great derby…to handicap and to watch.
Roberta, this year’s Kentucky Derby went from a damp squib to hot potato in just the last 2 weeks. A good post draw is going to be vital.
Yes…and racing LUCK.
Yes Roberta, luck, the most important but most intangible part of the puzzle. Crystal ball, anyone. Ha ha
Matthew, we seem to like the same colts, favorites to long shots, the post position order is going to be the decider for me. Best of luck.
El Kabong, are you a lawyer? If not, you should be. You present an excellent case for Derma Sotogake and I too like his chances. He certainly has a lot of frequent flyer miles but he is a good traveller according to his connections and has proven to be a durable campaigner. I look forward to watching his works at Churchill on You Tube.
p.s. I hope that Derma Sotogake’s countryman, Mandarin Hero gets in the Derby as I think that his performance in the Santa Anita Derby proves that he belongs in the mix.
Not a lawyer, but I am 1-0 in the King County Courtroom. A DUI officer pulled me over, ran me hopelessly through the DUI clown show (I had not had one drink) and when he failed to get his catch, he made up a terrible lie and gave me a Negligence ticket. I opted for my day in court and they gave me a mitigation hearing, at which point I pointed out to the Judge that they had made yet another mistake. I had asked for my day in court, not for some please don’t go hard on me whine session. The Judge was very apologetic and offered up any info I wanted for my case. It made all the difference. I was able to prove my ticketing officer had no view of the infraction he claimed I committed. I remember after cross examining him the Judge just sank her head in her hands and said, “Officer Bacon, that really was his name :), thanks to your own testimony, I have no choice but to find the defendant not guilty.” BANG went the gavel and I snickered all the way back to work to tell my boss the story. He thought I was crazy to fight it, but that ticket would have been expensive and awful to have on my record not to mention reason for my insurance company to jack my rate. Ole!
Well done, El Kabobe. It’s always satisfying to win a fight for justice.
I wish I had you by my side for the only traffic ticket (speeding) I ever received in over 60 years of driving. I was doing 62 mph in a 55 mph limit and was selected to be pulled over despite the fact that other cars were flying by me at a higher speed (the officer probably pulled me over as I was the only one he could catch up to, ha). I appealed it, but the judge sided with the ticketing officer. Whether it’s at the track or in court, I seem to have bad luck. Sigh!
Derma Sotogake, BANZAI!
乾杯
Kanpai!
Bells?????
Drink up. Empty your cup. Or Bottoms Up.
Can do, win or lose. Thanks, 7.5 Furlongs and cheers to you. Good Luck!
Good for you!! I probably would have wimped out – too much fuss etc. Did the judge fry Bacon’s butt as well. What a swine.
Ha ha ha! I hope the judge was crisp, not eggsigent.
I know…BOOO!
Ha ha ha!! Once I, along with 5 other people, were caught jaywalking on Christmas Eve by a ‘policeman’ who was deliberately poised waiting outside the railway station to catch people as we entered the station. The traffic lights were flashing non stop so you had no idea when was green, amber or red.
We all just took the punishment, $150 fine, because of the day/time but boy, did have a few things to say when we got on the train.
Oh my! I hope that all the policeman got for Christmas was indigestion.
It certainly wasn’t in the Christmas spirit but as we’d just come from a work Christmas party you didn’t want to argue the point… New York, police.
I hope to god Skinner gets in. He was 3 wide the entire race Practical Move hugged the rail for a dream trip and Mandarin Hero was 2 wide on the first turn and followed PM on the rail on the second turn. Skinner covered a lot more ground than either.
It’s easier and somewhat lazy to automatically latch on to a prep winner. Fans love seeing a “1” in the horses’ running lines. Me, I’m trying to mine for gold among the also-rans.
Guess who got the fastest Thoro-Graph number in the race.
Sheriff is a master at patience and developing a colt slowly. Skinner will need to develop mentally to make that final leap to the winner circle. Be a great price…
Skinner?
I would hazard a guess that quite a few like Skinner. Place your bet as early as possible, if you haven’t already, and good luck.
Mandarin Hero almost defeats a top Derby Horse, Practical Move. Mandarin Hero has not been running at the best level in Japan. Derma Sotogake has and you can see it in their earnings in Japan. Derma’s time in the Dubai Derby was at least at the same level, if not faster by my calculations, than the runners in the Dubai World Cup. I know time is relevant but this fact is real. He ran as fast as the older horses that day, and remember he was being geared down. The race was in hand. His running style is versatile. Prior to the Dubai Derby he showed talent coming from off the pace. In Dubai, breaking from the 1 hole, he darted out of the gate, took the lead, ran a relaxed race and separated at the top of the lane without any urging at all. No shaking of the reins or taping with the whip. This horse is as smart as he is versatile. Things you can’t teach are automatic with this horse. His motion is efficient and mechanically smooth. He is already in Louisville, warming up to the track and atmosphere and this is something other Dubai Derby winners never did. His handlers are smart. They are taking no chances to not give him every opportunity to show his brilliance and that is exactly what he has shown. I hope he has good lead up in his training. We may very well be in for a special show. I hope all goes well for this horse and his connections.
You make a very convincing argument, El Kabong. All the travel worries me a bit though. Do you think Derma Sotogake will attempt to lead should he get a good post position?
The beauty of this guy is that he can and will take what is given. Post draw could determine that question but I really don’t see any tough to beat speed in this race so if he breaks as well as he did in the UAE Derby, he just might go to the front but, he doesn’t have to do that to win. He can come from off the pace if that’s the situation he gets into down the lane.
Yes, El Kabong, it’s the lack of quality speed which gives Derma Sotogake an advantage and if able to control the speed, liberally, he could be a deadly threat. Good luck.
His fellow countryman possibly?
He didn’t do that well in the race before his last at Meydan, a well beaten 3rd when not setting the pace or being that near it. There was nothing notable about his effort in Feb., at a mile. I believe he needs to be up close to the pace.
There are several others who could set the pace, although some of them break slowly: Verifying, Kingsbarns, Practical Move, Mage, plus a couple more if they get in. If Derma sets the pace, the same horses who could have been on the lead will challenge the pace. I don’t think the trainers want their jockeys to allow an uncontested lead this year.
The Saudi race was too short for him. I have followed him in Japan and the horse is good. The only X is the travel. That is a lot of travel for a 3 year old.
I agree Eric, he is not a turf horse and he doesn’t benefit from sprint races which is what I consider a mile to be. He is bred to run and run and run and he doesn’t get tired. Good to see you over on this side of the comments. Good luck with your plays in the Derby.
I think he needs the lead or close to it to win. Jockey who’s not experienced with the Kentucky Derby isn’t a plus.
Olé, El Kabong! You make a fair case for Derma Sotogake. But maybe the strongest case in support of Mandarin Hero is your first sentence. Mandarin Hero lost by a nose, in good time, to a colt that had already won two graded stakes in California, and he beat two well-regarded stakes-placed runners. That race was the Santa Anita Derby, a bona fide derby prep that has produced five Kentucky Derby winners since 2000. Compare that to the Derby record of runners coming out of the UAE Derby: 0 for 18 with no on-the-board finishes.
Derma’s final time was just slightly faster than that of Rebel’s Romance in winning the UAE Derby in 2021. RR won that race by the same margin as Derma, beating a similarly suspect field, after having lost in the Saudi Derby (just like Derma). Trained by the great Charles Appleby, RR was not pointed to the Kentucky Derby. He performed poorly in two subsequent Dubai dirt races before going back to the UK and Germany, winning four straight races on the turf.
At this point, I expect MH to fare better in the Derby than DS.
Roberta, I am well aware of the poor record that plagues Dubai Derby winners, but comparing his time to a race run in a different year is useless. Instead, focus on the fact that he ran faster than the older horses who ran in the UAE World Cup that day. That is a more fair comparison as to where this horse really is with this performance. He out ran horses like Country Grammer and Equinox, not to mention the other older Japanese horses who ran that day, and he did it being geared down. That stat is what puts his win in perspective for me. Plus, I have it on good authority that he ran in a class of horses in Japan that was higher than MH. If you take out the 600,000K he got from winning in the UAE Derby, his earnings are double that of MH. He’s a better horse. How much better we will find out soon.
I do understand your point. But I’ve seen many claimers and allowance horses set track records (or come very close) and then disappoint when stepping up against stakes runners. Derma Sotogake may turn out to be special. I just don’t have enough solid evidence yet to judge his chances. As for the earnings comparison, Derma does have an advantage. In just their races in Japan, Derma has earned 72k per start to Mandarin Hero’s 47k per start – a comfortable margin, but not an overwhelming one. I hope that MH is entered in the Derby. The runners this year from Japan certainly do add to the excitement.
Sounds great!… but that 1 hole needs a occupant, hope it’s not him.
If a Japanese horse is ever going to win the derby, you would think it would be this year, simply by looking at this group of US horses and how they are coming into the race. No monsters.
As a wise man once said: The future is ahead of us. I predict better years ahead for Japan in the Derby.
Prat chooses Angel of Empire over Kingsbarns. I like it!
Ah, ha, the ducks are starting to be lined up in a row. Prat is an excellent match with Angel of Empire. Luis Saez suits Tapit Trice as well. All good.
The excitement builds!
Davids, with Kingsbarns now w/o a rider, who do you think Pletcher will give the mount to? Will Ron Anderson try to lobby for Frankie Dettori? (I think Frankie would be open to accept the mount on a contender) Or will he sell Johnny V to make the switch from Reincarnate to Kingsbarns? Hmmm.
Speaking of Ron Anderson, I wonder why he and Joel Rosario split up? They had a banner year together in 2022.
Dewey, I doubt Johnny V would switch, he seems pretty close to the California circuit and Baffert/Yakteen. I’d guess at either Javier Castellano or Jose Ortiz but there is quite a pool of uncertainty at this stage so it’s hard to tell.
Can’t help you with the ‘Rosario – Anderson’ split. Perhaps it’s a ten year itch. Ha ha Rosario sacked another Ron(nie) back then.
Thanks for the feedback, Davids. I hear you on the “ten year itch”. I remember that Javier Castellano cut his agent after winning the Eqlipse Award three years in a row. Go figure!
I would guess that he might choose Jose, and I hope he does.
1. Baseline Beater
2 – Reinvest
3 – Demolition Duke
4 – Transect (blinkers on)
5 – First Mission
6 – Disarm
7 – Denington
8 – Empirestrikesfast
9 – Prairie Hawk
10 – Curly Larry and Mo
11 – Arabian Lion (blinkers on)
Field for the Lexington as just posted on Twitter.
Disarm fans rejoice! All he has to do is finish third or better to leapfrog all those horses at 45 points. I hope Skinner makes it in as well. I will be absolutely delighted if Forte, Practical Move or Tapit Trice is the winner, but not surprised if Verifying takes first. Would also be down with a Japanese winner. It could certainly happen this year.
Yes, Ms B. To get IN the derby, Disarm needs only a 3rd-place finish as things stand now. But I think his connections expect a win if the horse is to be a serious contender. I think he WILL win the Lexington and he WILL be a serious contender.
Hi Roberta – I’m glad Disarm is running and drew well from PP 6 in the Lexington. Hopefully he wins and punches his derby ticket with confidence heading to Louisville.
And with Arabian Lion in the race (with blinkers), Disarm will have a fast pace to run into. Should set up perfectly, and if he doesn’t take down this field, he should be pointed to other races (Belmont?)…
Nice, want to see Disarm in the derby. I also hope Cyclone Mischief gets in.
Not a very strong field for the Lexington. To me, it appears that all Disarm has to do is show up for the walkover win. What ever happened to Confidence Game and Instant Coffee?
Oooooh, I forgot Confidence Game was supposed to enter. Hope he doesn’t go into the Derby after that long layoff. That would definitely be bad in the long run, in my opinion.
Baffert trained Arabian Lion prepping for The Preakness….
Steve, one more comment and I’ll be quiet.
Just watched brief video of Verifying’s arrival at CHD.
He is very handsome, much more so than his sire, Justify.
Beautiful condition, not a hint of rib at least from the side view.
I like to watch the arrival of the horses as I get to see them without tack, blankets etc.
They give me an idea of their condition and conformation.
Lynda:
Thanks for the update: I re-watched the 1997 Santa Anita Derby that Silver Charm won, then watched what he did with softer pace in the Kentucky Derby: very similar to TT and Verifying in BG…I am liking his chances more now!
You are welcome biggy312.
Biggy312, I mentioned earlier how Verifying’s BGS was reminiscent of Silver Charm’s SA Derby. Both were second until the stretch call, when both gained “head” leads. Both of them lost by a head or neck to the horse they fought throughout the stretch. I like Verifying’s chances…at good odds. You might get 14-1 on him Derby day. Of course, we know that Pletcher’s barn is well-stocked for the Derby, but so is the Cox barn.
biggy312, Silver Charm was my favorite and pick to win the Derby.
Back to Verifying, spent some time looking at his pedigree. Not wanting to steal any thunder from Steve’s pedigree analysis, I will only say that I found his dam line to be impressive. His dam has a very deep hip and straight legs.
I also think that Verifying has better conformation than his sire, he is more balanced than Justify and has better legs.
Some just consider the stallion line, I explore both sire and dam and go back further than 5 generations.
Brad Cox made a comment some time back about the colt’s mental game in which effect said thar Verifying was starting to get it together.
Verifying certainly is on my short list of probables to win the Derby.
Lynda you never have to be quiet.
LOL, thank you !
Steve, I am very much looking forward to your pedigree analysis of the horses.
I spent some time last evening watching Mandrian Hero’s races in Japan and I watched a replay of the Santa Anita Derby.
Just my opinion of course, but I think that Mandrian Hero, if he makes the cut of course, has an excellent shot at winning the Kentucky Derby; more so than Derma Sotogake and Continuar.
I am saying that based on his pedigree, his running style and his jockey who has experience racing in North America (as I mentioned previously, he won the Eclipse for Apprentice Jockey in 2019).
He has also shown the trip from Japan to California was not taxing, he settled in nicely and of course came so close to winning the Santa Anita Derby.
He took a lot of kickback in the SA and he has won on a muddy track in Japan.
He also seems to settle where his jockey wants him and moves forward when asked, even between horses and is aggressive in the stretch wanting the win.
He certainly has that combination of speed and stamina that the breeding program in Japan has strived for.
Been reading that Mandarin Hero has racing experience at bullring tracks in Japan. Which brings back memories of the Los Angeles County Fair or Pomona (later to named Fairplex). This was a true bullring-half mile whereas Appaloosas, Arabians and quarter horses raced in the first few races every day during the two week meeting in September followed by the thoroughbreds. Races primarily comprised of horses accerlating a short distance, then squeezing and bunching up together then as a group turned left. The unlucky ones were driven to the outer rail. This went on and on until the finish. It was quit a fun and festive atmosphere. I can still smell the BBQ ribs and kettle and hear the shouts and screams from the kids on the nearby rides.
MH looked much the bullring part in the SA Derby-hugging that rail around the turn and then squeezing through two horses.
Speaking of Santa Anita-it looks like they brought back the atmosphere of the LA County Fair with the ferris wheel and inflatables. Now, it they can only build a monorail around the track where people can travel and watch the races….
John, your post brought back memories of watching cross country point to point races back home in Virginia. Most of the horses were Thoroughbreds.
They were very festive as well.
The races were held on a beautiful farm that had rolling hills and most of the jumps were natural (creeks, logs, ditches, etc) with downhills and long stretches for galloping.
The parking accommodations for our cars, pick-up trucks and SUVs afforded us a view that we could watch the entire race though binoculars were needed for watching the horses on the flat.
The food for our tailgate parties was amazing. The races started around nine in the morning and we were often invited to have breakfast that was cooked on grills. The competition broke for lunch around 12 and Virginia style BBQ was the main course.
They have similar races in Aiken, South Carolina and a mile oval dirt track for flat racing.
Yep. Thanks Lynda. Up here in the great Northwest there are similiar bullring tracks that offer racing, rodeo and everything in between during their short runs in the summer such as the Crooked River Roundup in Prineville, Oregon or the Racing on the Rogue at the Josephine County Fairgrounds in Grants Pass (Oregon).
Hi, John. My understanding is that Tokyo City Keiba (aka Oi) is a pretty nice track and by no means a bullring. Judging by photographs, it appear to be a 1-mile oval. Its circuit has a reputation here as second-level, but that’s only because turf racing is THE thing in Japanese racing. All of Mandarin Hero’s races before the SA Derby were at Oi. I believe that all racing in the NAR circuit is on dirt. Mandarin Hero’s SA Derby made a believer of me. He’s a contender!
Yes, Roberta, right-handed circuit with a circumference of a mile.
Just food for thought…one of my three big Derby hits was Sea Hero, in 1993… Sea Hero ran huge, in the Champagne, before a not very huge Spring. ..similar to Blazing Sevens…..
Won’t happen; brown’s record in KD is miserable. He should point for a summer campaign if he doesn’t go for the Preakness.
Just putting it out there. ….one big Fall win, in the Champagne….no Spring wins….. that’s Blazing Sevens, and that was Sea Hero….
Won’t happen for 19 of the 20 runners.
Chad Brown quote on Blazing Sevens:”He trains like an older horse. He’s laid-back and easy on himself, easy to train. He’s been very straightforward since the first day he came in.” Decision, decision…
I’m with Bigtex also hoping you’ll be in Louisville Derby week also! Your educated eyes would no doubt be of help to all of us here. Didn’t bet the Santa ANITA contest but was very entertained by the race Skinner put in. Love his trainer and with another burst of improvement he could be right there!
Steve, will you be in Louisville, Derby week, observing works, etc? I was all in on Animal Kingdom because of Derby week.
Loved Forte story. Amy’s farm is about an hour from me. I am so amazed she has Sweet Caroline in foal to Flightline. Now that foal is going to be a star.
That’s who I support for the Derby. Magnificent physical specimen. I’ve been a fan since his 1st graded win, at almost 7/1. He has a look.
I searched and searched but could not find the race fractions for the UAE Derby. Anyone know where they exist?
youtube
Can’t find any YouTube replay that posts the fractions. I want to know, did he run 23? 47? 1:11? etc.
The official charts, both from Dubai Racing does not have the fractional times. The Racing Post also does not cover the fractional times.
As mentioned the official video from Dubai Racing, which is also on YouTube has a clock and the distance covered. You can approximately work the fractions from the video. The distance covered is in metres so you will need to approximate the covered distance for a 1/4 m as 402 metres.
Good luck.
Brudder thanks so much for showing me how to get the fractions. I paused the replay every 400 meters (1/4 mile) and these were the times on the screen. Ran it twice.
1900 start
1500 = 25.4
1100 = 48.6 (23.2)
700 = 1:12.9 (24.3)
300 = 1:37.5 (24.6)
0 = 1:55.81 (18.3)
* Lone lead all the way around
* Super slow opening quarter, made up for it with a very fast second quarter
* Hand ride until 1st whip with 255 meters left, 2nd whip 225 meters left, 3rd with 205 meters left
So what’s my takeaway on Derma? Strong race, but… because he was never challenged, because he was whipped home, because it’s not easy shipping int’l and winning the derby, I don’t fear him upsetting my boy Two Phil’s quite as much as before. He can still win, but I now think he’s more very strong for 2nd or 3rd.
DDerby: Another thing to consider with the times, especially the first quarter-mile is that in the US we have a run up of x number of feet before the timer is switch on. You probably noticed that in the UAE there is no run up and the timer switches on immediately after the gates open. Hence this may impact the time for the first quarter mile as the horses get into stride and open up into a gallop. Nice analysis of the video and performance of Derma Sotogake.
You could always key TwoPhils and Derma in some trifecta combos and some super combos, yes?
Hi Sally, yes you’re right. I think they are the two horses who can win, so I will have both of them on top. I’m strangely not scared of anyone else at all.
Brudder, that’s really interesting. I didn’t know that. If his first quarter was actually closer to 24.5 (by U.S. standards), he looks a lot stronger to me. I also later realized, he didn’t feel the first whip until 50 meters into that last fraction, so he possibly could have finished up in :18 flat. Legit win threat.
These splits almost seem unbelievable, I mean they rank up there with some of the best Preakness times in history. That’s if you subtract 11/2 to 2 seconds for runup. I’m sure the math above is correct and those are the times, but was Meydan really fast that day? I feel he won’t be able to do that again, in Kentucky.
Steve, reading your opinion on all the pros and cons you have observed in the Derby prospects is such a pleasure especially when our opinions often match, which is frequent. Ha ha A quibble here, a quibble there but basically the same thinking. I’m not as keen on Derma Sotogake, all the travel worries me and the possibility he’ll fly too early but who knows?
Tapit Trice, Forte, Angel of Empire appear to be the big three with Skinner, Mage, Verifying just below them it could be a plethora of heads bobbing at the finish at Churchill Downs. They all appear very close talent wise at this stage of the year with separation coming later in the year. The post position could be the decider on May 6.
Your saga on the evolution of the Japanese racehorse was a wonderful bonus. I used to watch the failed European sires, but excellent racehorses, being bought by the Japanese in the 80s to improve their lines then picking out speedy mares and sires from the US to blend with the mix. There was too much Northern Taste blood, now too much Sunday Silence blood, so the outcrossing is in earnest. They have bought quite a few top class racemares from the US as broodmares over the past decade so their horses should keep improving. No medication on race day has been a positive as well. Good luck to them.
Thanks again Steve for your tireless work which is such a pleasure to read for so many.
That’s very kind of you David thank you so much. And thanks for sharing your thoughts on the Derby .
Steve, I forgot Practical Move as a top contender. Freudian slip, possibly? From what seemed a gigantic one sided Derby only a month or so back I think we have one of the most hotly contested Kentucky Derby encounters in years. Must give you plenty of grist to the mill. Your writing this year has been sublime, like fine wine…
Steve has the best analysis in the world as far the Derby goes in my opinion. You do have to admire the determined style of TapitThrice despite his weird running style. I probably like others only question this in the derby pinball machine with 20 horses and does he have or will he have that ability he showed in the Tampa Bay Derby to pass with so much dirt flying. Verifying is interesting but do not like the fact that he quit when Tapitrice came at him. To me, the sleepy horses are my picks beside the obvious(Forte has showed he can run outside and his talent alone off a layoff and a tough trip give him the top pick) I am so enamored by The Two Phils (His two first preps before the Jeff Ruby he battled all the way to the wire even though some ground was lost and then the explosiveness in the stretch and will have a nice layoff to be ready. The other horse if he Chad runs him, and if he can get fit enough is Blazing Sevens, he got caught so wide at the Bluegrass and loss ground in the stretch but then reingaged when inside horses came running. Rombauer showed the same sort of run two years ago after his running in the Bluegrass and romped in the Preakness…so interested because his bloodlines show he has the pedigree for the distance, I will use him because I feel it will be a third start off the cycle and ready for a peak effort. If not..look for him if he does not run to run in the Preakness.
Thank you very much Charles. You make all good points.
Charles, Blazing Sevens HAS the points to make the Derby field (46, putting him ahead of a slew of horses with 45 and 40 points). Question is whether Chad, er, the horse’s owners, will run him.
Someone said that there are no coincidences.
It is very interesting that both Forte and Secretariat were both Virginia bred. And as everyone knows, it’s the fiftieth anniversary of Secretariat’s Triple Crown.
All I can say, is that the Horse Racing Gods are very busy this year.
I LOVE the back stories, Steve! Keep em coming. Enjoyed the back story of Kingsbarns. That story told me if he’s got a lot in the tank at the 1/8th pole he’s got the speed to be tough down the stretch as witnessed in LA. Derby.
Thank you Tex. Always glad to hear that.
My derby handicapping usually narrows the field to the top 5 or 6 contenders. Then I get into the heavy lifting. Right now in a preliminary analysis, my top horses are Angel of Empire, Tapit Trice, Practical Move, and Hit Show, then Forte and Verifying. Kingsbarns, Lord Miles, and the not-yet-qualified King Russell have a shot to make the final cut. But if Disarm runs big in the Lexington, he could shoot into the top 3. It will be difficult settling on just 6 contenders this year. I may need to expand. My sentimental picks are Practical Move because I made a future wager for charity at 83-1, and Forte and Tapit Trice because I’ve seen them up close at GP and Tampa. I wish I could rank the runners from Japan, but there isn’t enough data to evaluate them. I’d prefer Mandarin Hero based on his SA Derby run.
I also use a similar number of contenders in my Derby handicapping, Roberta. However, as you noted with so many worthy contenders this year I’m inclined to wait until the post position draw and access the track condition before narrowing down my list. The only horse that’s a lock for me which I will use in all my Derby bets is Tapit Trice. Like you, I love TT’s chances. I’d prefer that he draws an outside post, but whether he does or not, I have full confidence that Luis will work out a good trip for him. There’s something about this year’s Derby that’s really reving up my excitement level. I’m not sure what it is but I’m really feeling it.
I’m revved up, too, Dewey. I think it’s called Derby FEVER! Ha ha!
Dewey, they’ll be praying for an outside post with Tapit Trice. An inside post would be self defeating for Tapit Trice unless they can manage a miracle lighting start. Fingers crossed.
Davids, even if Tapit Trice gets shuffled towards the rear at the start, Luis will negotiate a move towards the outside in order to have clear sailing for his rally. A key factor on whether TT can reach the front will be the pace. My other concern is Tapit Trice’s tendency for distraction. The huge crowd at Churchill will get his attention for sure. Thus, I was surprised that Pletcher didn’t try blinkers for the Blue Grass. Fingers crossed indeed.
Thanks Dewey, good assessment. I think Tapit Trice will be ok with the crowd, Keeneland allows spectators to get fairly close to the horse and he was fine. Noted, it’s still not the Derby crowd but they all have to face that. The kickback at Churchill Downs, especially in a 20 horse field, worries me so an outside post will help in that regard, Yes, the pace could compromise quite a few horses, I’m just hoping one of the Japanese horses is determined to lead at a brisk pace but not too crazy. It’s still in the lap of the racing gods in some respect.
I don’t think blinkers would help Tapit Trice at this stage, he’s a bit too green, it’s his style to amble out so they just have to live with that, he was ok at Keeneland but they will rocket out at Churchill. Fingers crossed.
Roberta, the post positions are going to deadly serious this year and the final week of workouts will be as important as ever. Often in the final week there is one horse that seems to be glowing with confidence and ready to explode. Excitement building.
Post positions should be selected according to ranking in the points system. There. I said it.
I was thinking the exact same thing just yesterday. Can you remember when the trainers selected post positions, around 2002? Was it structured that the trainer of the colt who had won the most prize money was able to pick post position first and so forth until the colt with the lowest prize money had no choice but have the last post left.
It may have been more complicated than that but it seemed fairer to me.
Davids, I found a 2018 article in TDN that states, “From 1998 to 2009, Churchill Downs used a two-tiered draw which allowed connections of Kentucky Derby horses to choose their post positions, but the order of selection was based on a random draw.” I don’t think there’s ever been a derby system that’s not some form of a random draw. The TDN opinion piece advocates for exactly what I suggested!
Thanks Roberta, that was it. I knew there was a mechanism whereby there was selection but still having random draws. I believe it was stopped because of the time it took to complete the final draw. It was interesting to see which posts the trainers chose.
I love the back story of Forte’s breeder. Such a fairy tale! That story is the main reason I’m leaning towards Forte – I like the Fairy Tale. LOL On a more sensible note, I’m not sure he’s better than any of the others. I’m trying to figure out who be a more logical choice. I typically like a horse who has at least tactical speed in the Derby. It’s such a traffic jam, I think some speed to get out front of the traffic is a good idea. I don’t really see anything with the kind of speed that can win the Derby. Did I miss something? Opinions welcomed. Thanks in advance.
Practical Move, Verifying, Kingsbarns, and Derma Sotogake are a few that can be in good position early.
Thanks Roberta. I’ve looked at that group and the only one I think is legit “speed” is Derma Sotogake. They all have several issues against them, so I’m still not seeing what I want. LOL Good lyric for a song – Can’t always get what you want…
You’re welcome. You might be onto a hit with those lyrics. Ha ha! Maybe Rich Strike signaled a return to the kind of derbies we were accustomed to 10 years ago and prior. Closers are welcome; frontrunners need not apply.
Thanks Peg, I’m glad someone acknowledged that story. I was starting to think no one was inteested in the back stories of these horses and their connections. I had done several of them earlier.
Please don’t think that. I’m sure that I’m one of many who appreciate and enjoy the back stories.
The back stories are always appreciated, especially during the Derby season. I can’t speak for everyone else, but the excitement of the prep races and whittling down the contenders is taxing work.
OK thanks. You never know what people are interested in. I didnt want to do just handicapping and analysis. I thought putting some human interest in there too would help bring people closer to the horses on a personal level.
I always read your beautifully written back stories. I love the shy, floppy-eared colt story; the “Gaudy” nickname is so funny. Forte was a mommy’s boy.
Steve, I always read your backstories!
This sport and these horses are about more than speed figures, handicapping and stats; they are stories about real people in pursuit of a dream.
No one but no one tells them better than you because you feel the same passions and emotions that many of us do!
Please never stop writing about them.
Thanks very much Lynda and Mary. I appreciate the feedback.
Steve, the human interest aspect of not only your Derby rankings, but, stories throughout the year, are the best part of reading your blog for me and many others, I’m sure. You are not only a gifted writer, but you also are a superb investigator as you dig up the facts for the “story behind the story”. I love it. Thank you so much.
Thank you very much Dewwy. I appreciate the kind words.
I speak for several friends who read your site. We love the stories. We just prefer to mostly read not post.
Gotcha and understand. Thanks.
I always look for the back stories. You are the master of providing back stories. That’s my favorite part of horse racing! The little stuff like how Invasor would fill his mouth with hay when he wanted to be petted. I’ll never forget that one. Keep on with the back stories! I am always interested in them.
Echo, echo on LOVING all the the back stories! As usual, Steve, you are right on with your top five this week. I agree with your order, though I might put Derma on top at this point even though we haven’t seen a UAE Derby winner do great at CD.
Thanks for sharing the stories of the horses. I absolutely love the stories of the horses and their connections; that’s one of my favorite things about horse racing. And no one does a better job than you do with telling a story.
This year’s Triple Crown races look to be very special. When did we have so many horses coming from Japan for the Derby? And all have Sunday Silence in their pedigree. I wonder if anyone has interviewed Arthur Hancock of Stone Farm?
Thanks again for covering all the aspects of the horses and their history.
Thank you Terri
Absolutely love the back stories!! Thanks Steve!!!
Aw Steve you know I love your back stories. It is what brings me to these blogs every week.
They never get old…..
What happened to Cave Rock running in the SA derby?
He wasnt entered and no one said why. His works were spotty so I suspect he had soundness problems
too bad. I was hoping to see him back in action.
Great update Steve. not much has changed from my point of view. the old saying about having a Chinaman’ chance just might gets turned around and I think we’re going to hear a song back from 1980 by The Vapors titled “Turning Japanese” and I really think so !
I’ve got your picture, I’ve got your picture
I think I’m turning Japanese
I really think so
Let’s see if Sotogake can show the way to the winner’s circle and get his picture taken.
….. and if the Vapors show up for the Derby, I’ll double my bet. Ha ha!
A viewing of Akira Kurosawa’s film “Ram” on Derby Eve might be a good omen as well. “Turning Japanese” brings back old memories of smoky nightclubs, vodka & tonic, and dance floors with disco balls.
super stuff and info. I have one topic Verifying your note says “he has the ability and the pedigree to carry his speed a distance of ground. ” but Ive been hearing and seeing quite terrible actual results for Justify colts on dirt going long. Was that just a comment on hes a son of Justify who won them all so hes fine or do you see some bottom female side helping as well. why do you think Justify is not brining in longer route winners. thanks! I do like this horse quite a bit pending draw, speed in the race etc etc. thanks!
It is mostly his female family which I will be getting into when I discuss pedigrees. Justify obviously is part of it too
You might want to wait a bit before knocking Justify credentials as a stallion. Verifying is from Justify’s FIRST crop.
cj, usually the opinion of a new sire is taken after 4 crops so the jury is still out. Gun Runner’s first crop came out with a blaze of glory but his second crop hasn’t a single stakes winner as yet. Things swing backwards and forwards until certain lines seem to click together. Arrogate, initially appeared to have little impact as a sire but now he’s a great loss.
Ice cold derby superfecta.
1. Two Phil’s
2. Derma Sotogake
3. Angel of Empire
4. Disarm
This is the way.
Demolition Derby, that’s quite a lot of hope in the Lexington Stakes. Good luck, though.
Yeah, not even sure on Disarm if he gets in. TP is my guy. Derma is the only horse who scares me.
Here are my top 5, nearly matching your own.
1. Two Phil’s
2. Forte
3. Derma Sotogake
4. Disarm
I think the top 3 in any order with Disarm, if he makes the field at all, coming in 4th would be a great tri or super.
Wow, nice Sally. Good luck to us! 🙂
Can anyone think of a horse that was as consistent as Practical Move in the last three races before the Derby? This is what he’s done after a half mile and at the stretch call:
Los Alamitos Futurity
4f – 3rd by 2
Str – 1st by 1
San Felipe Stakes
4f – 3rd by 1.5
Str – 1st by 1.5
Santa Anita Derby
4f – 3rd by 2
Str – 1st by 1
Of course, PM won all three races. Barbaro and Fusaichi Pegasus were close in terms of consistency, but not so much as PM. They all had the same running style.
Consistent he is. However, upon further review…it’s not how you win, it’s who you beat.
Los Alamitos Derby – 5 horse field of which Tall Boy was a gate filler.
San Felipe Stake – 9 horse field of which 1 was still a maiden, and 4 were last out maiden winners.
Santa Anita Derby – 8 horse field of which 4 entries had absolutely no chance to hit the board. The pace setter, One In A Vermillion finished 5th by 4 1/2 lengths and the 6th place horse was another 9 lengths back.
Not trying to talk you off the horse. Just my observation.
Hi, Zany. Thanks for your response. Don’t worry. You won’t talk me off the horse. I like several and will be studying all possible entries for the next few weeks. I’ll have ONE horse on Derby day. Maybe even the day before.
In my view, it’s mostly about how the horse wins, plus some consideration of who he beats. It doesn’t have to be just one or the other approach. Additionally, you mentioned only the horses in those races that weren’t contenders. You didn’t mention any of the others. More to the point, if you look back at the past performances of previous Derby winners, you’ll find plenty of their preps that you would likely consider substandard. If you are evaluating the quality of the field, what criteria do you apply? Races before the prep in question? The totality of a horse’s preps prior to the Derby? Maybe the best way to evaluate the quality of a given race is to look at the full career of each participant. But we don’t have a crystal ball, do we?
Regarding how PM wins, he has a classic stalking style for the Derby. He’s fast enough (raw times, speed figures) among the top contenders. I could list many Derby winners whose resumes were far less impressive.
I mean Forte and TT beaten who in Florida? Absolutely no one
Thanks for the handy information, Roberta, you’ve just made it harder for me to split the six I like. Ha ha Seriously though, you do like to see that consistency. Nonetheless, of the six I really like, Tapit Trice appears to have the most upside but post positions will be the decider for me.
Yeah, this is a tough year for Derby handicapping. My post was just to show how crazy consistent PM has been in his running style. It doesn’t really make him a better candidate. I can’t knock TT.
That’s exactly how I see the race as well – too tough to handicap. Ha ha It’s really up to post positions and luck during the race. Moreover, I doubt an outsider will win this year. Famous last words. Ha ha
Steve,
Awesome analysis as usual. In my humble opinion the 3 most visually impressive runners are Forte, Angel of Empire and Derma Sotogake. I’m gonna have to box those three for one of my bets. Good Luck everyone!
Thanks Hammer. You should throw in a price horse just to make it interesting and win some big money.
Thanks Steve, will do. I like Skinner and Two Phil’s as mu top long shots.
I’m gifting you the Derby Tri…..Derma Sotogake-Raise Cain-Mage. If you want the Super throw Angel of Empire in there. You’re welcome lol
Blake, how much are you putting on your trifecta?
I usually do a 5 horse $1 tri box $60. I buy it twice. And then I pick a longshot to Place. Hit the tri when Country House won on DQ. Last year had Richstrike and Commanding curve a few years back that I hit big on.
Best of luck to you, you never know.
Thank you Steve.
I am surprised you kept Forte #1 with not the top BSF and TG. Understand he’s the champ, but what’s further thought process? Pletcher seems to be great besides the KD as well.
He was already ahead of the others and no one did enough to supplant him.
I wouldnt know who to replace him with after being on top for 11 weeks. Why would I take him off after a win when none of the others really stand out. I dont base rankings just on BSF or TG. I dont love him but I dont love any of the others more.
Hey Steve – You are the man! Disarm is officially running in the Lexington. Hopefully he gets off of the rail and has feee room to run in the stretch to use his big frame to come storming home.
Cutting way back in distance but he only needs a second.
As of now, I am not taking a closer in a 20 horse field. That leaves Derma Sotogake and Practical Move for the win.
I actually liked the Santa Anita Derby and Practical Move more than most.
Derma Sotogake can close or lead or pace.
Respectfully: I think the jockey on Practical Move is a hinderance. He lacks big racing experience & I would bet that he has not rode in a 20 horse field before. I may be wrong on that assessment but he does lack experience.
Vasquez was in the 2015 derby with Mr. Z. Finished 13th in a field of 18. Mr. Z had a lot of trouble early.
I’m bullish on Ramon Vasquez, he settles a horse well, and he’s not afraid of the rail run—in the Derby–horse’s as they tire come off the rail on the far turn, some riders eschew the inside—the great Chris McCarron did not like being inside—Practical Move at the 1/8 pole looked like he would finish 3rd, and inside the 1/16 pole looked like he would get 2nd—he won, and I believe Tim didn’t have him cranked up, he took something off in his final work, and now two works to the Kentucky Derby, for an underrated trainer who took Golden Pheasant to Japan and won their premiere race, as a young assistant to Whittingham….
I am not, so be it.
I agree on the Jockey. But the horse is a solid.
Loved your list Steve, you must have wracked your brain training to sort through these highly competitive & mostly evenly matched horses. I am a big gambler anymore but I love the pageantry & the thrill of horse racing. For every race track that I ever visited I always noticed that there were more tickets on the floor then were cashed. Back in the day, win, place & show tickets were printed in color, those were great days. Regardless of who wins the Derby I want you to know I appreciate all your hard work in putting this together. I truly love the back stories you give us, the stories we would never read about otherwise. The Derby trail is fun but those other off Derby stories is what I like the best.
Here are the 3 horses I like in the Derby but it is still a early. I loved Arabian Night but he must have gotten hurt somewhat so won’t make the big dance. I also liked Cave Rock. I have no clue what is wrong with him.
Verifying
Angel of Empire
Skinner (longshot)
There are a couple other note worthy horses but my dad used to tell me that betting to many horses in one race is a fools bet.
Thank you Steve for all you do……… Happy belated Easter
Deacon, Verifying’s performance in the BGS was reminiscent of Silver Charm in the Santa Anita Derby. He’s got a good shot. Could be around 15-1. Angel of Empire will be very tough. You could get 8-1 on him.
Roberta: That was echoing what I thought as well. I am not sold on Forte or Practical Move. The Santa Anita Derby race time was decent but the other preps race times were dismal. Because of recent past history I believe we will see more Derby winners who were lightly raced. Angel of Empire, and Verifying especially, really needed that last race. Skinner could be a sleeper but I like him because John Shirreff’s trains him.
What I meant to say above was that I am NOT a big gambler anymore. I don’t have the time or energy to devote to its success,. Some of these bloggers, & more power to them are experts compared to me. I bet on instinct & how I feel about a horse. It has served ok.
Thank you & best of luck to you.
Thank you very much Deacon. I appreciate the kind words
Good to see you back Deacon.
I have always appreciated your sage advice on the horses and the sport.
Same here on the back stories that Steve writes.
Read an interesting quote this morning, it went something like this:
“Every horse that steps on the racetrack has someone who loves them.”
To me, that is the heart of the sport.
These race horses are like babies to a new mother. The hard work, time & money these connections put into these equine steeds shows love beyond imagination. I love all horses, but most of the time many of these horses do not belong in the Derby.
It’s great for the connections & it gives the fans a major thrill but it is so difficult to find a winner who has to maneuver around 19 other horses.
Like Dan Fogelberg once sang, ” It’s the chance of a lifetime in a lifetime of chance”
Thank you Linda for the kind words.
You are most welcome Deacon.
Great job with the Week 12 rankings Steve. I marvel at the consistently of your comprehensive writing in helping us to understand the complexities of this year’s Derby contenders. I also enjoyed reading your synopsis of Japan’s emergence as a major competitor in world wide horse racing. The Japanese are certainly making their presence known.
Speaking of the Japanese contenders, Steve, could you explain to me how Continuar is assured a place in the Derby with only 30 points while Mandarin Hero could be omitted with 40 points? What gives?
I marvel at the “consistency”
I like your list & also would like to get Disarm & Skinner into the field believe they are live ones. Jockey’s will be jumping around now that the field is closer to set with many riding several to be entered. Additionally a fun fact Mage mother Puca & Forte mother Queen Caroline used to run head to head against each other & they still are just in a different way…… Great Stuff but I still like Verifying, Hit Show & Practical Move
Jerry
He will be joined by Continuar, who earned 30 points in the UAE Derby. Those transferred over to, and gave him the win in the “Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby”.
The Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby gives 1 automatic bid to the winner of the series and Continuar accepted that bid.
Terry, if I understand correctly what you’re saying is that Continuar’s 30 points from the UAE Derby transfer over as qualifying points for the Japan Road to the KD? It was my understanding that the Japan Road to the KD consisted of designated Japanese races on the Japan racing circuit to qualify for an automatic bid, which does not mean points earned in Dubai.??? What am I missing?
The official Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby has Derma Sotogake with 120 points, Perriere with 56 points and Continuar with 40.
Those are the combined aggregate points from all events in the Road to the Kentucky Derby. There were no 100 point winner events in Japan. Derma Sotogake came first in the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby, but his qualification was via the main Road to the Kentucky Derby.
See the standings reference in the wikipedia page for 2023 Road to the Kentucky Derby which I have been maintaining for this season.
BrudderA, thank you for the clarification on the Japan Road to the Kentucky Road.
BrudderA, thanks for the clarification of the Japan Road to the Derby route to the Derby. I went to Wikipedia and I must say you did a thorough job in covering the history of the Derby Point system. Well done!
If I’ve understood the PURE Japanese point earnings correctly as you laid it out, the top point earner was Perriere with 56, next was Derma Sotogake with 20, followed by Continuar with 10. Assuming Perriere’s connections declined the automatic bid, then the invitation should have went to Sotogake for the automatic bid. Mind you, we’re just talking about PURE Japan points. In any event, I don’t think that Continuar belongs in the Derby ahead of the likes of Red Route One, Mandarin Hero among others.
We’ll just have to wait and see how this all unfolds. Thanks again BrudderA for your work on shining a light on the point system.
With regard to the Japanese addition to the Kentucky Derby, Churchill Downs will be thoroughly pleased to have made such an inclusion of runners to enhance the betting pools as well as drive a massive interest in Japan about having a representative that has a big chance.
Also Churchill Downs woulr really like to have an entry from the Europe branch of the Road to the Kentucky Derby. Brave Emperor has qualified, but his connections have indicated that they do not have the funds to send their horse to Louisville. They mentioned if someone were to partner then they would be interested. Hmmm….
Isn’t this the kind of deals which attracts the Godolphins and Coolmores ?
Maybe they can start a “Go Fund Me” page. lol. Seriously, I’m sure a partner with deep pockets would be the solution to transportation costs. However, the question is would Brave Emperor be worth the investment?
Just curious…. the Derby goes off around 6:30 pm. EST and the time difference is 6 hours, I believe, in London making it 12:30 am. their time. So, what time is it in Tokyo when the race goes off? The reason I ask is I’m wondering how much sleep the bettors in those time zones have to lose in order to bet/watch the Derby?
That’s very kind of you Dewey. Thank you! Continuar was an invitee from Japans Road to the Ky Derby series having won the Cattleya Stakes.
Good stuff as always Steve:
I was a Practical Move guy until this weekend.
Paired his 100 Beyer figure but came home a tad slow for me. Furthermore I did not like the ride at all the jock gave him.
Looked like he was fighting the horse, standing up way too high in the saddle and then still holding him back when he was ready to roll. He runs the same race every time and has no issues being inside and saving ground.
Which in a derby that may not have a fast pace is what I’m looking for. FYI his dosage index is lower than Tapit Trice.
Tapit Trice may have the most upside but I can see 6/7 W turning for home. Can a Tapit colt finally win a derby?
Forte the question is did he peak? Or did Irad ride him to cute in the FL Derby?
I really like Two Phil’s a lot he is game and fights every race. His speed figures are improving and he has experience.
Currently I see the race fairly wide open.
PS I may change my mind..
GL everyone.
John
John, I agree about the ride that Vasquez gave PM. He could be a hindrance to PM’s chances in the Derby. Frankie Detorri is looking for a mount, why not give him a leg up on PM? Tim Yakteen might want to consider making a change.
Dewey, Juddmonte has offered Frankie Dettori the ride on Chaldean in the 2,000 Guineas on May 6, same day as the Kentucky Derby. Chaldean is one of the favorites for the 2,000 Guineas. Moreover, May 6 is also the coronation of King Charles III in London.
Has Johnny V got a serious horse for the Kentucky Derby?
Davids, thanks for the reminder that Frankie has the mount on Chaldean in the 2,000 Guineas. I had heard that and forgot.
Johnny V. has the mount on Reincarnate.
Thanks Dewey, I thought Johnny V must have had a mount but couldn’t remember which colt. The shifting of the Baffert colts here and there you get lost sometimes. Ha ha
Davids, not only do I get lost sometimes trying to keep up with all the Derby doings but I swear I feel my head spinning from time to time. ha ha! Thank God we have Steve to sort things out for us.
Hopefully, after the Lexington, the dust will finally settle and we’ll have a better idea of who will be probable for a start in the Derby and also a sense of the jock commitments for Derby mounts. Then we can focus on…..
– workouts
– post position draw
– track condition
– wagering strategies
– cashing tickets (yeah, baby!)
Oh, one more focus item, the dreaded…..
– defections/scratches
I need at least 4 or 5 of the above to have Mandarin Hero get in. BANZAI!
Dewey, do you watch the “Kentucky Derby Morning Works Show” on YouTube? It’s goes for about a hour every day usually starting 10 or so days before the race. Wonderful visuals on how the runners are developing/performing on the track. Excellent commentary as well.
Davids, I do watch the “Kentucky Derby Morning Works Show”. The coverage of the workouts is top notch.
I hope that former jockey Rosie Napravnik returns for the commentary as her insights are invaluable.
Spot on Dewey, I was going to mention Rosie Napravnik, she was terrific, but in case she isn’t doing it this year I thought best not to.
Yes, John. Steve wrote about Vasquez’s ride in the Practical Move paragraph. I believe that PM’s final furlong time is well within the standard for Derby winners’ final preps. As for his consistency, I’m doing some research on his amazing consistency. Will post it sometime after dinner. Ha ha!
I am loving what I see in Lord Miles’ pedigree. Majestic Warrior can bring sturdiness and Dixie Union I would expect superior horse racing abilities and stamina. And also on the dam side in the dam line, Come a Callin, who produced 2 year old filly Champion, Caledonia Road. And he is sired by Curlin and has a trainer who can get them ready for a big race.
Hymn Book and Delta Link are also in Come a Callin’s family. Perhaps, the Belmont Stakes could be Lord Miles’ glory rather than the Derby but good like with him.
Thank you Steve as I did enjoy this week’s edition!
Wow. Wow. Wow.
Blown away by some of these rankings.
Hi steve!
Im happy to see two Phil’s on this list. I really think he is going to be the sleeper of the group and run a massive race. Id love to see him win 1 for the little guys again. Ill be curious to see if they run rocket can in the derby. I don’t think he ran an awful race in the Arkansas derby. Anyway always enjoy these articles!
Two Phil’s definitly is a sleeper. All depends on how he handles the track
The question becomes: Is Two Phil’s an Animal Kingdom or a Lil E. Tee or a Rich Strike? Or instead is he a Tiz the Bomb?
Thank you Steve for another insightful analysis. Watching ‘from afar’ I find your analyses particularly helpful in sorting out the various prep races. Thank you, too, for the very interesting analysis of the evolution of Japanese racing. (I was always a fan of Sunday Silence and so am very pleased to see his influence in racing around the world.) I found your observation about Japanese trainers very interesting as it reminded me of the way Tim Ritchey trained Afleet Alex. Given how intelligent thoroughbreds are, I would think that the mental stimulation horses get from extra walks could only benefit them.
Thanks again for all that you do for those of us who love horse racing.
Glad you enjoyed it Dawn. Thank you
On Thursday in the second race at Keeneland, Wesley Ward has a 2-year-old from Yoshida’s first crop. His name is Hob Alwatan. Well, California Chrome debuted in April!
Roberta, Hob Alwatan is an Amber Woody fragrance for women and men. It’s such fun watching the progeny of freshmen sires begin their careers. So much hope involved.
It sounds Arabic. Maybe it means “irresistible.” Ha ha! I wonder if Yoshida’s progeny will do better on dirt or turf.
Urdu actually, Roberta. Ha ha National/patriotism. Good question, hopefully both.
Twelve editions of Derby rankings, and this one is by the far the most intriguing. Four weeks ago after the Tampa Bay Derby, I said the “other Pletcher” is the horse to beat in the KD. Slowly you’ve moved him up in your rankings. Pletcher has four more weeks of fine tuning this immensely talented grey beast.
“What the Americans noticed about the Japanese, who were now ahead of us in technology, was that they kept their horses out of the barn for over an hour each morning, walking them long distances throughout the backstretch to and from the track. You never knew where you would run into them. The horses seemed to love it and thrive on it.
Unfortunately, this concept will never be adopted by the majority of US trainers.
You can be sure of that. We need more Fair Hills.
Steve, you are so right. If only there were more Fair Hills scattered around the US racing’s image and moreover, the mental and physical health would be improved dramatically.
Steve,
Mandarin Hero has only 40 points not 45 points.
Steve,
Hiroaki Arai, owner of Mandarin Hero said yesterday (as reported on Twitter) that the flight home to Japan that was scheduled for Tuesday (tomorrow) has been canceled.
Mandarin Hero will stay in the United States and prepare for a possible gate in the Derby and if that does not work out, he will be headed to the Preakness.
Derma Sotogake arrived yesterday in Louisville (video of his arrival was also on Twitter).
That’s all.
Thanks
Steve, do you happen to have the Thoro for Forte in the Florida Derby? Wondering if he got a good one for his wide trip.
3 3/4. Nothing to rave about and a regression
Sorry I meant 3 1/2
Wow yeah, follows the other speed figures regressions. Not a great sign going into the Derby right? Thank you much.
I think that Maximum Security and Nyquist had T-G regressions in the Florida Derby.
The crystal ball question/answer which won’t be answered until the race is run. Ha ha
Thank you so much, Mr Haskin, for the excellent look at Japanese racing. It’s a story that has yet to reach its conclusion. I was already so excited about the current group of contenders, but your analysis increased my excitement twofold!
I would have Angel of Empire ahead of Derma Sotogake. How does Thoro-Graph work on their figures for Dubai races? Are track variants considered for all races and runners in Dubai in the same way as North American runners and races? I ask because the figure you provided is all that I can see in considering DS as a serious contender. The field that he beat seems like a group far below those in the U.S. preps. The Arkansas Derby may have been the classiest race of all the preps, with Angel of Empire (G2 Risen Star winner), Rocket Can (G3 Holy Bull winner and 2nd to Forte in G2 FoY), Reincarnate (G3 Sham winner), Red Route One (2nd in the G2 Rebel and G3 Southwest), and the highly regarded allowance winner Two Eagles River. As you wrote, he totally dominated that field.
It will take me a few days to process all of the analysis that you’ve provided us. Thank you!
I almost put him ahead but decided to go interesting more than predictable. The difference between no. 3 and 5 is virtually nothing
For me, Derma Sotogake is the Joker in the pack. Wild!! Post position may indicate his impact on the race but more importantly if he simply goes for it from the start.
Hi Steve – It looks like you’re breaking the story of Disarm running in the Lexington. I was hoping this would happen because he does need more points to get in. KingsBarns and Disarm are my 2 lone KDFW horses live for me going into the KY Derby. KingsBarns prefers a target and breaks like a shot out of the gate , so he should sit a good stalking trip in the KY Derby. Disarm is proceeding on a gradual path of improvement and the Lexington should tell us a lot of whether he has taken that next step to contend in the KY Derby. Angel of Empire and Tapit Trice are major Derby win contenders and I will be sure to EX box those 2 with KB on Derby Day. My top 6 are . 1. KingsBarns 2. Angel Of Empire 3. Tapit Trice. 4 Derma Sotagake 5. Forte 6 Disarm. Hoping Disarm fires big in the Lexington giving me 2 live contenders at a price in the KY Derby.
I agree with you, Joe, Angel of Empire and Tapit Trice are the two that have most upside leading up to the Kentucky Derby. Good luck with Disarm in the Lexington Stakes.
Hi David- I’m glad Disarm is running in the Lexington. One more exciting derby prep to conclude the derby trail. Disarm has shown good progression in his races and should be ready to fire a big shot in the Lexington.
Exactly, Joe, and it’s always great when the Lexington Stakes is an important race with points on the line. Disarm must have an excellent chance to get in the Derby.
Steve: I figured there would be some seismic moves this week, and I wasn’t disappointed. I actually moved Tapit Trice to No. 1 on my list, even though I picked Forte as my Derby horse after the Fountain of Youth. I’ve had good success with Florida Derby winners that impressed me, starting with Unbridled in 1990 and continuing with Monarchos (2001), Barbaro (2006) and especially Orb in 2013. The Fla. Derby consistently produces Kentucky Derby winners. You can’t say that about any other 3YO prep, perhaps with the exception of the Santa Anita Derby.
But there’s something about Tapit Trice that intrigues me. I don’t think we’ve seen the best of him yet.
And I love the story about Forte’s floppy ears as a foal!
Ms Blacktype, Tapit Trice reminds me a lot of the better Galileo progeny – coolness under pressure and the determination to win, no matter what the circumstance, along with unbounded talent. Aidan O’Brien often says that the best thing Galileo passed on to his progeny was the determination to win. I think Tapit Trice should really appreciate the Churchill Downs’ straight as long as he gets free. Ha ha
Thanks, very much, for the ride so far on this year’s Derby trail: I have learned so much valuable information and history from your comprehensive write-ups, as well as the many intelligent and insightful commentators here. I don’t want to contemplate what the Derby trail would be without it! I feel like many here that more than a few would not surprise if they won.
In any case, I have the following futures horses, along with what I can cash for:
1. Practical Move $18,225
2. Blazing Sevens $12,325
3. Verifying $6,050
4. Reincarnate: $5,200….hard to see winning…
5. Derma Sotogake $2,000…only bet $10. @ 200-1 week before UAE Derby: wish I had been a bit more agressive: if he wins, at least I can say I had Derby winner at 200-1!
6. Mandarin Hero $2,000 Ditto!
7.Hit Show: $1,650: Bill: I bet in futures because you are so high on him!
8. Skinner $825
I can see a nice cash or no cash at all and would not be surprised! I think I might hedge on Derby day with Angel of Empire and Two Phils….In general, I avoid Pletcher horses on Derby day, but don’t remember his having such strong candidates…going to let him beat me#
Looking forward to the workouts!
Good luck Biggy! Wish I had your stomach for risk. Those are very tempting figures you post.
Ms Blacktype:
Thanks very much! I think my appetite for risk is increasing as I get older! Best of luck to you!
Hey Biggy , Good luck ! I have the following…..
SKINNER – $22,300
MANDARIN HERO – $22,600
DERMA SOTOGAKE – $20,850
PRACTICAL MOVE – $17,700
TAPIT TRICE – $17,600 – My 1st future bet I placed on Dec 15 at Circa. I asked them to add Tapit Trice to the list,they did not have him listed.
HIT SHOW – $15,100
REINCARNATE – $$13,400
Mark:
Awesome bets! You are very well-positioned!!!
Best of luck and hope you cash!!!
It will be fun going to Circa to cash, if we get lucky!!!
FORTE is BEATABLE !!!!!!!!!!!
They’re all beatable! Ha ha!!
Yes. Very true…Ha Ha Ha !!!
I might have received the December odds you got, but my back precluded me from starting until January!
Paul at Circa gave me 175-1. I slapped $100.00 on him.
Hi biggy312
Best of luck with your wagers biggy. Best case scenario for me, Hit Show finishes 1st and Practical Move finishes 2nd.
I would cash for $20,814.00 ($100.00 win bet and $2.00 exacta wagers in Pools 3,4, and 5).
In addition, I have a $40.00 win bet on Practical Move in Pool 3, keyed PM on top of Hit Show in a $2.00 exacta wager which would return a total of $6,935.00.
Additionally, I keyed Hit Show on top with the entire fields in Pools 3 and 5, in $2.00 exacta wagers, and in Pool 4 keyed Hit Show on top of a few longshots.
I’m hopeful Confidence Game wins the Lexington, to ensure he makes the Derby starting gate. I would cash for $27,850 if Hit Show finishes 1st and Confidence Game finishes 2nd. In addition, (in Pool 5) I boxed Confidence Game and Hit Show in two $20.00 exacta wagers, which would return roughly $26,642.
I have other exacta wagers in Pools 3, 4, and 5 too many to mention.
I forgot to mention that Tapit Trice closed at 45-1, in Pool 3. If Hit Show finishes 1st and Tapit Trice finishes 2nd, I cash for $25,606.00
Good luck biggy
Best of luck Bill
Thanks Mark
Best of luck to you as well.
Great potential there: Best of Luck, Bill!
Thanks Steve once again for all the helpful insights! Could I bother you for the Thoro graph pattern on Mage? I’m still intrigued by him, even though he probably is losing my favorite jock, Luis.
3 3/4